and welcome, everyone, to the second hour of "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> and i'm wilfred profifrost. stocks fall in europe and asia after vice chairman stanley fischer says a rebound will allow the central bank to raise rates gradually. >> we've got a little over two weeks before we make the decision, and we've got time to wait and see the incoming data and see what exactly -- what is going on in the economy. >> the shanghai composite ends

the month over 12% lower as china injects over 140 billion yuan into the money markets. berkshire hathaway has more than a 10% stake in phillips 66 despite the slide in crude prices. >> hitting the motherlode, shares in any rally after the eni discovers the mediterranean's biggest gas field. some numbers just hitting the tape. eurozone, august inflation is unchanged from july. cpi year on year, plus 0.2% is what it is estimated for july. the core cpi year on year is plus 0.9% which again is pretty much unchanged july, where it was. plus 1%.

overall, the cpi number coming in fractionally ahead the same number for july. let's look at the euro, 1.12, that's what it was around the open, changed a little at trade but not significantly. changing your attention to u.s. futures. last week was a week to remember for the bulls and the bears. china's move triggered a selloff in asian stocks. suggesting a lower open by 1520 points. nasdaq down 36. s&p 500 down 19. here in europe, reaction to inflation data southwest, of course, investors getting their heads around the recent volatility in the markets last week. they're looking the stocks lower in the xetra dax. the french equity index down better than 1%. a similar loss in spain and italy.

let's take a look at the nikkei. of course, we are on the last trading day of the month, can you believe it, here in august. of course, it has been a down month for most of the major indic indices. you see the japanese nikkei closing lower by 8%. a lot of this having to do with new fears over a slowdown in china, as well as depreciation that we've been seeing in emerging market currencies. interestingly enough, you take a look at the shanghai composite, closing down 12.5% for the month of august. the third straight month of declines. let's check in with the full story of eunice yoon live in beijing, eunice. >> thanks so much, seema. well, there is very little confidence in the chinese markets today. a lot of investors want to make a decision based on beijing's policy, but the policy has not been clear at all. they're saying it's very confused. after the markets closed the pbco or the people's bank said there is more liquidity which is

important in the stock market. but at the same time, the talk is mainly focused on the investigation that the government has been carrying out into people who they believe has manipulated stocks or those reporting ton. today on state tv there was a confession from a financial journalist who was detained earlier who said that he did indeed engage in fake news. and also apologized for the impact that that had on the markets. there was a regulator who was also detained and four senior executives at a top brokerage also have been under investigation. so this is creating a very uncertainty environment for a lot of traders. people saying that they're uncertain if it's okay for them to sell the stocks. also a lot of people within the foreign -- not really foreign, but also the journalist community, especially in financial news are wondering whether or not it's safe for them to continue to report the way they.

in addition to that, a lot of investors here have been focused on the manufacturing pmi which is going to be coming out tomorrow. that is supposed to show that sentiment here among these factories is slowing at its fastest pace in three years. yet again, another indicator that the world's second largest economy is slowing down. guys. >> eunice, thank you so much for that. let's continue our look at what markets are doing at the top of the show. now, bonds have been pretty much as volatile as equities over the last week. the u.s. ten-year, even though we're getting closer to a fed rate hike dipped below 2% for the last week. it's now recovered to where it was, between 2.15% and 2.17% today as we look at it today now similar types of move in the german yield as well. back about 0.273. let's have a look at the euro and the yen rallying slower last

week with the rate hike abated. we saw the euro get very close to the 1.16 handle. now back to 1.12. we just had eurozone inflation come back in line. and that's not moved the euro back tout. about 1.12. a quick look at commodities because it's been a fascinating debate, a chicken and egg-type argument. has it been oil? it's been highly correlated. wti, 44.37. and brent, 48.89. but they did rally at the back end of last week. seema. >> vice chair stanley fischer said incoming data and developments will likely term whether the fed raises the rate. speaking from jackson hole, he said it's a pretty strong move but adds that they're looking at

events. he said the fed has not made a decision yet but will be monitoring fred's u.s. jobs and market report. on friday, fischer told cnbc, the plan is still to move rates up progressively. listen to this. >> we're doing our best to make sure the market understands and everybody understands, we do not intend on doing a rapid rate of increase. we can't promise it won't happen. but it will depend on the circumstances but our assumption is it's go to be gradual. >> traders now placing a 35% chance of a raise in september. the chief economist at chase getting up early on "worldwide exchange." anthony, great to see you. what do you think the message was from jackson hole?

it seems like they were more or less interested on the timetable? >> seema, i think you've got that right. the fed is concerned on what's going on in international markets. and the reason for that, china is the second largest economy in the world as we heard from fischer. and pretty soon you start getting that critical math. my suspicion is that the federal reserve does want to move in september. but on the other hand when you see the disturbance even in the chinese equity markets and the even in the u.s. equity markets they could easily pause until december. one of the things that fischer made very clear is that they do intend and have a real energy for raising interest rates this year. but september is still a little bit of a toss-up. and i would put the odds up at less than 50% for september. >> the inflation picture looks extremely bleak. the core index widely watched by the fed has only risen by 1.6%

over the past year. indicating that perhaps the 2% target that the central bank has in place is -- it's too aggressive? >> well, remember that monetary policy, the gentleman that won a nobel prize has told us has long endured the lives. you've got to be careful, because if you look at inflation today, and you try to execute monetary policy based on today's inflation rate you're going to make say mistake. and i think fischer made that very clear. one of the things the fed wants to do is anticipate where inflation is going. that's not necessarily where we're going now to make monetary policy today. so you're absolutely right, inflation is below the target but again, fischer made it clear that he's pretty positive that inflation is going to move up to the targets. i think that will dictate whether the federal reserve moves from here. >> anthony, we saw the

volatility and the bear market zipping below 2%. does that suggest this is more than an equity market correction? that there's some fundamental weakness to come around the corner in the u.s. economy? >> well, i think there are some risks. when you see a lot of touaut ot turbulence, you run the risk that some of that goes into the fundamentals. by that, i mean, perhaps consumer confidence will start to slip and that may have an influence on consumer spending. you saw the university of michigan in the united states, consumer confidence slipping a little bit in the last month. i think it's too early because retail sales are pretty strong. we saw consumer spending coming in with towering strength. so it's too early to say that. that's one of the things they're looking at. you want to look at turbulence, to the extent that it influences fundamentals you have to be careful. >> let's talk about the market corrections that we've seen over the last few weeks. put in perspective how big this

correction is and how long it may or may not last for? >> well, first of all, as i look at the average correction, when you're about to have a recession or you're within a recession, we're talking about a correction in the neighborhood of about 23.7% on average. now, of course, the last time we had a recession, we had more than a 50% size correction. but that's the average. and one of the things that i think market investors have to be really cognizant about. on average when you get a correction, the average is that it takes about three years to get a recession. and in fact that range is way wide. at the longest end of the range, back to the 1940s, we've seen corrections happening and a recession not occurring for another 10 1/2 years. and then sometimes, you have a recession that occurs less than eight months later. so when you look at corrections, i think it's a big mistake to assume when you get any sort of a correction that that automatically means that you're going to get a recession. you need to look at the

fundamentals. and today, the economy is doing well. you've got that 3.7% growth rate in the second quarter. and it looks like in the third quarter we're going to get numbers over 2% perhaps, approaching something close to 2.25% to 2.5%. it's not to say it didn't deteriorate in the next six months but right now, it seems like this is midterm correction within -- again i make expansion, more than a recurser of a recession coming around the corner. >> there were a lot of references to the financial crisis of 2008, anthony. stocks staging their biggest falls. here in europe, the largest price drop since lehman.

>> you send to see when you have some sort of a correction, equity outflows start to be the news and that seems to be what happens. but when the market starts getting better, that influence comes back. right now, we're in a situation where people are nervous but guess what, equity market volatility tends to rise during those inflexion points when the federal reserve is thinking about raising rates and in fact starting to raise rates. we are exactly at that point. you of course pointed out the volatility. instead of moving back and fourth, at one point, 25% and now 35%. so that volatility is a cause for concern for the investors in the markets. and by the way, when you get all this turbulence and all this increase in volatility, that's when you send to see investors getting nervous and equity outflows start to pick up. but guess what, that's exactly

when the equity market starts to move higher. that will attract by the end of the year. by the end of the year, i expect it in positive territory. >> anthony, a pleasure to have you on the show. anthony chan, managing director and chief economist at chase. had let's give you a rundown, the chicago pmi business barometer, is out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. it will still remain well above 50. let's take a look at other top stories. berkshire hathaway builds a $4.5 billion stake in phillips 66. once a position, with nearly two-thirds of it last year. for a chemical business that folds into its unit. berkshire didn't mention phillips 66 in its stock exchange holdings.

regulators occasionally let them disclose information. phillips 66 is up about 1%. eni is trading ahead of the stock 600 on the finding what could be the largest offshore in the mediterranean. the italian energy giant said the discovery will help meet egypts kneel egypt's needs in coming years. bny melon expects to fix pricing glitch. the ceo said resolving the issue is taking far more than expected. morning star estimates the disrupted price of nearly 5% of funds will leave about 400 billion in assets. we've got tech news. apple's next generation tv could

cost as $2 billion. but it you put a price on a great tv? that story after this break. but it's our job to find them. the answers. the solutions. the innovations. all waiting to help us build something better. something more amazing. a safer, cleaner, brighter future. at boeing, that's what building something better is all about. ♪ you know your denture can lookg but, when you eat tough food,. the denture moves. oh no! this shouldn't happen. try fixodent plus adhesives. their superior hold helps your denture work more like natural teeth. and you can eat even tough food.

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i was going to the library to do my homework. it was a little bit of a walk to get to the bus stop. i had to wait in line to use the computer. took a lot of juggling to keep it all together. what's possible when you have high-speed internet at home? the library never closes. it makes it so much better to do homework when you're at home. internet essentials from comcast. helping to bridge the digital divide. welcome back. here are your headlines. u.s. futures point to a lower open after the u.s. fed's stanley fischer puts a hike on the table. berkshire hathaway takes a so% stake in phillips 66.

and there are reports that apple will double the price for the next generation of apple tv. all right. let's talk tech. apple may double the price of the next apple tv. 9 to 5 mac reporting the new version of the device could cost $149 or $199 this is the current model which costs six buck us. it's supposed to be unveiled at an event that the company is hosting next week. it will be available to buy in october. let's take a look at price action in shares at apple it's been a volatile ride for the big evidence technology company in the world. it was trading in bear territory, down about 20 percent in recent highs. it's come off those levels but still about 16% over the past three months, wilf. >> i'll say, i don't care if they double the price. i hope it's a big, big rebound. i hope it's a transformational

product. if not, i'll be disappointed because they keep delaying it. if it's just a small upgrade with a big price increase, i think that will disappoint the market. >> we've been waiting so long for the apple tv that you're referring to. could replace what cable providers provide. this the current upgrade of the apple tv, i don't know if it warrants a big price hike from $69 to $149. we'll see if there's consumer demand for it. >> if there is a big price increase, i think there's going to be more upgrade than more than we know. apple likes to tease things up a bit. you're right, if it's still the same little box with not much in it, that will be a disappointment. but we'll have to wait and see. >> absolutely, we should point out according to our friends at kemshow, september is the month, apple has done and we'll see if

history repeats telephone or investors take advantage of the drop in price and get in there. >> and it will be down 0.3 of 1% in german trade. coming up on "worldwide exchange," kanye west made an interesting announcement at the vmas. we'll bring you that story next. it has something to do with washington. just leave that out there. a little tease. been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

he is no stranger to controversy, calling him the world's greatest rock star, and calling himself, quote, god's vessel. but kanye west may have just topped it all with his latest comment. listen in. >> i have decided in 2020 to run for president. [ applause ] >> i think we should replay that again. that's epic. >> and first lady kim. >> first lady kim, can you imagine. >> what's amazing, when i read about the story, i assumed he was saying it tongue in cheek in a sarcastic way. but clearly he was saying it. i don't think you've noticed but there's another election that's to come first of all that will

take focus. >> i wonder if donald trump has encouraged other tv personalities to say, hey, if he can run, so can i. >> anyway -- >> they do have a lot in common. they're both successful in their respective industries. donald trump, kanye west. they both have pretty wives. what else. they're controversial and provocative. >> keep going with this. >> i'm just saying, there are similarities out there. but we're actually going to stick with politics, bernie sanders is gaining support while hillary clinton drops in the polls. public outsiders, donald trump and ben carson topped with a huge martin. let's get to capitol hill with tracie potts live at nbc. tracie, good morning to you. >> good morning. tracking these numbers is starting to give a clear picture of what voters are thinking.

at least early on. in iowa, the poll shows in the first caucus state, hillary clinton is slipping and we've seen that in a number of polls but bernie sanders is gaining ground. 37 to 30. that's a spread between them, only 7 points. just a few months ago in maine, she had a 41-point lead now down to 7 points. interesting on the democratic side, joe biden showing up in double digits, he hasn't even decided whether or not he's going to run yet. you're talk about donald trump, donald trump is still at the top of the pack for the republicans with 23% in the poll but dr. ben carson who early on was way down has now come up to a competitive number two at 18%. everyone else on the republican side ride nght now. everyone else on the republican side is in single digits. what that signals that people, republicans, at least in iowa in this poll are looking for

outsiders. people not connected with washington. not senators, people who are real career politics, but people like donald trump, a real estate billionaire. and people like ben carson who is a well-known minister. >> tracie, thank you very much for that update. now, as we move on it gives new meaning to the term political heavyweight. the kremlin has released footage of russian president vladimir putin and medved pumping iron. and then training in a t-shirt and sweat pants, reminiscent of his bare-chested horse and fly-fishing trip. do you want to see more of this from your political leader? does it help to portray them in a more human way? we've been getting tweets in.

one e-mail coming in from thomas, he says that he would take on mr. putin and straighten him out during a weight workout. well, it did look a bit feeble there. >> yeah, absolutely. maybe he was trying to be modest. that really fits his brand. you got to wonder this tmi, too much information, or needed to share more of their personality to gain support? >> i think, clearly, it's a common thing to get a little bit more of the person's side. but this is so obvious and set up. like him and the prime minister together. the prime minister, by the way, he's looks like he's been forced to do it, not really enjoying it. it's of one by mr. putin. >> continue again. continue to send us those @twitter@cnbc.

the dawgs and the hawks took to jackson hole. the policymakers, we'll discuss that next. plus, a look at futures. the dow down about 115 points in premarket trade, the last trading day of august, my friends. stick around. ampus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

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the table for the fed? think again. stocks falling in europe and asia after vice chairman stanley fischer said a rebound in inflation will allow the central bank to raise rates gradually. >> we've got a little over two weeks before we make the decision. and we've got time to wait and see the incoming data and see what exactly -- what is going on now in the economy. the shanghai composite ends the month over 12% lowers that china injects 140 billion yuan in the markets. warren buffett takes a bigger bet on the oil refinery, despite the slide in oil prices. hitting the motherlode. shares in the italian rally after the group discovers the mediterranean's biggest gas well. stockings lower in monday's

session, this after it was an historic week for investors. the s&p 500 entering correction territory. and the volatile index touching its highest point for more than six points. stocks off the lows of the session, down 150 points on the dow in premarket trade. here is europe, we're on track to end the month lower by 6% to 7%, depending on which market you're looking at. xetra dax, down 112 points. and the crack down 0.1%. and the latest inflation data, the worries over china we did see the close lower in trade today. >> this has a look at what august meant for u.s. markets. gaining reputation in the month as traders might have had a roller coaster ride as the dow

set to close out the month considerably lower by 6%. currently down 5.9% for the course of the month. a similar drop in the nasdaq. a 9% plunge in the beginning of the week. the biggest day on record that was friday. overall, of course, as you can see, still down 5.85% for the month. and if history is the judge, we may be close to the bottom. joining us live is ben laidler, global strategist. thank you for joining us. what gives you confidence of the recent correction? >> well, i think it's helpful at times in times of stress, when people are very uncertain to look back at what history tells us. we look back at 30 years of data, we've had something like 16 corrections of global equities over the years. and your average correction has been something like 20%.

and in the midst of all of the panic last monday, we were down 19. so, we thought that was very interesting. and historically, it's paid to buy the bottom of these corrections. your average return over the next 12 months to buying the bottom of the average correction is more than 20%. so history was giving us some comfort. and on the more fundamental side, we see some signs of hope here as well. >> investors still seem to be struggling to figure out how significant the weaknesses in china's economy have been. ben, where do you see the economy heading from here? where can we actually see a turn around, given the series of measures taken to stimulate the economy? >> the markets here in china is the focus now. we think china has a lot of volatility and flexibility here both on the monetary side and fiscal side. we see cuts last week.

we see more global cuts. we see more fiscal policy being rolled out here. and we also see a firming up with china going into the second half of the year, something like 2% gdp growth, quarter to quarter. that takes you to something over 7% for the full year. so, we think, given a little bit of time, allow some of that to come through. we think some of the concerns here will calm here. >> and you've got a few anti-consensus calls in your global action, in particular in overrate in merging markets. bats your top picks in that pace? >> yeah, selling, in the eye of the storm so to speak right now, a vice between globe growth concerns and increase of the fed. but on the flip side, there's also the most leverage on the upside to both of these things declining as concerns. as we say, we are looking for global growth to firm up a little bit in the second half. we do think the fed is going to be pretty dependent.

and if they do raise rates it's going to be pretty gradual. and we think it's a positive leverage to that. in the end when the concerns do begin to debate, you have an asset class which is extremely cheap. you have earnings which are extremely depressed and you have currencies which have weakened a lot. sort of a triple discount on the yen right now. and when some of the growth and fed concerns ease, we think em is where you should be looking to get leverage for some of these. >> ben, let's talk about europe. lower oil prices. the ecb's monetary policy program should be a big boon to the european economy but european stocks are significantly lower for month of august. how important is the china story to european overall growth? ben that was to you. oh, i think i lost him. but, we will bring ben back into

the conversation when we fix up that technical issue. but i think that's the big yes. european stocks are going to be the big outperformer, the winning trade for investors over the most of the year. but that has changed for investors. looking at china as an excuse. but when you take a look at global markets, europe, we're at the look of improving. >> the dax is going to round this down around 10% if we continue with its 1% decline in today's trade. and that highlights what is meant to be in the cycle, meant to be one of the safe havens of europe, despite what the factors have corrected significantly during the month. >> yeah, that one data point that investors were cheering that bank lending picked up further in july. also seen as a vote of confidence for the ecb. but we still need to see a significant improvement in the

lending requirement here to say that qe is working. >> ben laidler has left us. thanks to ben. we'll get a look at the top stories at this hour. berkshire hathaway has disclosed a 10% stake in phillips 66. berkshire once held a large position in the u.s. oil refiner but shed nearly two-thirds of it last year when it swapped shares of a chemical business that folded into its ubisol unit. it let the company disclose information confidentially so it can quietly buy a large amount of stocks. they're up by 1%. >> the italian firm eni is trading higher after finding a hughes gas field in the mediterranean. 30 trillion feet of gas spanning 60 square miles. the energy giant said the discovery will kept egypt's energy needs in the coming years. and the rosneft has come in

at 134 billion rubles. 20% year over year. the stock slightly lower in trade, but up by 6.6% in the last three months. still to come on "worldwide exchange," bank of new york mellon is scrambling to fix a glitch in funds for more than a week. more on that story coming up. before earning enough cash back from bank of america to buy a new gym bag. before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time and 2% back at the grocery store. even before he got 3% back on gas. kenny used his bankamericard cash rewards credit card to join the wednesday night league. because he loves to play hoops. not jump through them. that's the excitement of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you.

no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

now, despite the rebound we saw in late week trade, the dow, nasdaq, are on track for their worst month since may of 2012. this, agency the cboe volatility index is on track for the biggest gain since 2008 but there is more fear in the market at 26, slightly lower in today's trade by 0.2%. take a look at the big move we've seen in the vix over the past days. over 114%, wilf. >> and the last thing you want is a computer glitch as well, that's is what bank of new york mellon has experienced. recently, though, perhaps there is a fix on the way. let's get to landon. she's got the answer for us. >> hey, wilfred, good morning to

you. the ceo of bank of new york mellon is warning clients that they won't be able to solve all of the pricing problems caused by a computer glitch before the markets open today. it's the latest in more than a week-long outage that has prevented about 50 companies from providing accurate prices for their withholds. more than 100 companies works through the weekend for its problems that's forced some funds to reprocess customer trades that were done with false prices. the issue stems from an accounting system from bny's software system that became corrupted last weekend after an upgrade. the company doesn't know the root cause. and on sunday in a conference call, bny ceo gerald hassell apologized saying it is taking longer than anticipated. by sunday night, the bank had

set funds for thursday and working chronologically. the problem is 20 u.s. firms including goldman sachs and invesco and 26 families of ets. morning star those funds have $404 billion in assets. by the way, investments says it's already found discrepancies and calculated for last monday and tuesday, forcing it to at judgment account balances for customers who traded those days. bank of new york is one of the world's largest investment banks and providing services on behalf of mutual funds. it's prompted some businesses to move to say while it's not life-threateni life-threatening, it's a black eye. >> landon, thank you so much. >> the owner of ashley madison has been reportedly trying to sell itself or raise cash for three years before hackers exposed personal data of members of infidelity website.

reuters say some unnamed investors wanted out. multiple attempts to raise funds and an ipo looked unlikely. on friday, ashley madison founder and ceo noel biedermann has stepped down. puerto rico delays fiscal plan until september 8. the government cites tropical storm erika which hit the area friday. a draft leak to the media last week proposes $1 billion in spending cuts including reforming teacher pensions and benefits for workers. forecasters say the hurricane headed to hawaii's big island expected to hit monday night. the storm is on track to hit had maui on tuesday. residents on dominican are cleaning up after flooding and mudslides have killed 20 people.

erika is still moving through the eastern gulf of mexico and expected to bring much needed rain to florida. secretary of state john kerry say scientists are unified including humans are contributing to climate change. kerry spoke in alaska sunday night. he and president obama will address a state department conference on global leadership on the arctic later today. the president will be visiting alaska over the next few days. he will lee name mckinley to denali, the traditional alaska native name. it was formally named after president william mckinley in what year, seema? >> is it 1919? i just know that naturally because i'm a history buff. now, we have sad news to report. a famed horror movie director wes craven has died after a battle with brain cancer. he was 76. craven is credited with reinventing the teen horror of

"nightmare on elm street" which starred an unknown johnny depp. he found success with "scream" slasher franchise. right before we go to brashgs letbreak, let's remind you of the headlines. the september rate hike on the table. phillips 66 with an oil hieshg. and apple tv, next generation. we're back in two. like your natural teeth.

but, when you eat tough food, the denture moves. oh no! this shouldn't happen. try fixodent plus adhesives. their superior hold helps your denture work more like natural teeth. and you can eat even tough food.

fixodent. strong more like natural teeth. fixodent and forget it. no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. welcome back. let's have a look at european markets where ended the month of august in the red. by the tune of about 1%. germany, similar amount for france, italy is only down about

0.4%. germany will be ending down around 10% if markets stay where they are now. let's have a look at one of the biggest individual movers. sabmiller working with advice from roby from a takeover according to the sunday times newspaper. this comes with expectation that ab inbev could expect a buyout. the markets in fact closed today. a volatile ride for markets and could be in for another one with u.s. futures pointing to a lower open. the dow off by 113 points -- 134 points. the tech, down today in free market trade. vice chairman stanley fischer of the fed says the incoming developments will determine whether the fed raises rates in september. speaking in jackson hole this

weekend, before that, it was a pretty strong case for the move. but he adds officials are watching events unfold during china's surprise move to devalue the yuyuo yuan. now on friday, fischer told cnbc the plan is to move the rates up progressively. >> we're doing our best to make sure everybody understands understands we do not intend a rapid rate of increase. we can't promise it won't happen. it will depend on the circumstances but our assumption is it's go to be gradual. >> following stanley fischer's speech, traders are now thinking of a 37% chance in september and a 77% chance in december. michael, tragreat to have you o the show. what did you make of the

comments made at jackson hole, but it seems like investors are still divided on whether the fed should raise rates in september. >> they are. i always liked fischer, i really do. but at the same time, it's like he's at the airport and he's got the orange cones in his hands and he's just leading you right down the path. you can see the telegraph here, nothing is going to be abrupt. tumultuous markets that the fed wants to ease into. personally in my camp, i couldn't wait for the fed to actually move in september. i think it would be so good for the markets to get the pain out of the way early to show that growth exists and at the same time, the fed does not want to deal with those repercussions. and we know that. if you look at the short-term interest rates which is the ratest forecast for the fed. september of '16 not until will you see 1% lates factored. again, that's about a year out.

but for the same reasons where we're at right now, 36, 37 basis point that is quite a move. so there's a lot of anticipation that things will probably pick up more in 2016. but i think the way the markets are anticipating right now the fed, you just don't see it. i think clearly that was the snapback in index markets to end the week. >> michael, let's talk about stocks. stocks a bit calmer towards the end of the week. what are we in store for this week. what are traders telling you on the floor? >> one of the things i said a couple weeks ago, the broader index that these heightened levels, and clearly it's the upper end of the range there, that's going to be more of a softer land and not as abrupt. clearly i like that maneuver. i'd stay with that as long as we see the s&p is below that. but it's changed just a little right now. i'm starting to see the cob

index taken on the chin a little bit long here. some of the specifics here be it copper or silver in the metals market to me are starting to show value. specifically, the 1403 level, it's a 25-year chart. i believe it's a monthly chart, for me, anything below like copper was at 227 is fewer value for even a technical standpoint, i think it's held these levels very well. and for these residence i start to see commodities come back into play in anticipation of the fed moving again and a resilient economy, i think together all of those mean upward paths. >> michael, we've seen the euro dollar and yen path starting in the reverse at the end of the week does that count as to how many vinvestors are in the rate hike? >> it is, for the same reason you that mentioned i think the dollar was a very good precipice

coming into that maneuver. it kind of forecasted or showed its hand. as the markets, specifically the index, has started to break apart. i thought that's when the dollar would start to take its lead. actually it didn't. specifically what that showed us, 111, 114 range, they'll be at the bottom. that will be the way it will continue. but it will be a stronger dollar. so i think a weaker dollar from here, as the fed probably denies september will start showing its hand later in the year. >> okay. michael, thanks for joining us. founder and president of bruin hill partners.com. european markets pointing lower as we move you u.s. futures suggesting lower, too. that's all we have time for today. i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm seema mody. thanks for joining us. coming up is "squawk box."

have a great day.

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good morning. today's two big story, the same as we've been dealing with -- china and the fed. the big headline out of asia. some buzz that's controversial market intervention. and here at home, comments from fed officials sparking the main debate. will or won't janet yellen and co raise rates. plus, a big bet on energy. warren buffett and berkshire hathaway takes a stake in phillips 66. it's monday, august 31st, 2015. and "squawk box" begins right

now. ♪ see you in september >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps this is "squawk box." ♪ good morning, and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm kala. and peter, cnbc contributor. peter, great to have you today. let's get you up to speed on what's happening. u.s. equity futures on this final trading day on what has been a volatile august. the dow down 118 points. s&p 500 will be down 14 points. nasdaq will be down 28 points. nasdaq on pace for its worst month since may 2012. we know volatility has been the name of the game lately. the vix on track for its biggest monthly gain ever.