valleys that we had seen in prior recoveries off previous corrections. just isn't there i'm sorry to have to say it. >> doc. >> as long as the vol comes down money will stabilize. >> that does it for us. "power lunch" giving right now. >> half time is over, "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day start right now. >> i'm maddy do you remembery in for tyler mathisen today. buckle up folks expect some pretty big news from donald trump this hour. we have the details ahead. >> and stocks are coming back again mandy, the dow was up just under triple digits incredibly we are nearly positive for the month. >> expect the undetected e. expected because there is confusion and anger and it's boiling over in europe. migrants many escaping war in syria, iraq, afghanistan trying to move into europe, this has become a very serious crisis. you can see the stocks are higher, up about 90 points on

the dow, they are giving up some of the earlier gains. earlier today we were up as much as 198 points and that's when we were positive for the month of september. albeit briefly. bob pass annie joining us from the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> we had a rally but we are offer of the highs, the s&p 500 we started strong, as you see we have come off of those highs. that has largely happened since the european close, some were speculating a lot of buying interest out of europe once that stopped the buying interest here somewhat evaporated. volume is knots particularly strong today, about an average day. let's take a look at why the rally that we had earlier. i talked to art carbon about this and the most important factor was china being closed but oil rallying was a major part of our oil rally. mr. dragi soundsing donish. there's your 100% about why the

rally we are having. as oil came off the highs the market drooped a little bit. chevron had a great open, once oil started coming off of its highs a little after 11:00 most of the oil stocks drooped. there's one reason we have come of of the high. another is healthcare. healthcare started very strong this morning and has drooped. biotech is weaker than most of the other parts of healthcare but even the big names, your merks and pfizer, bristol meyers, johnson and johnson. they have slowly drooped south. another problem for the dow is caterpillar which is probably costing 15 or 16 points for them. joy global a producer of mining equipment had very poor ruts, that stock to the down side. we have a rally here, but not a particularly heavy volume. back to you. >> thank you very much for that. let's head over to the nasdaq in

times square. why have we been losing steam there? >> we are starting to lose steam. come take a look. this morning we had the nasdaq and nasdaq 100 joining the s&p and moving below that correction level, but now we are really just barely holding on to gains at this hour. we still cover the russell 2000, that's still in correction territory nonetheless it is doing better, the small cats are doing better than largest. both come off of the big lows that we've seen and some of the big stocks that are helping and that have also moved out of correction territory include ebay. today celebrating its 20th anniversary, one of the gainers within 7% of its recent high. the chip sector has lifted out of bear market territory up about 13% over the last nine sessions and twitter extending gains as its board meets today and jack dorsey cut his beard.

apple opening slightly higher but has faded after testing yesterday's high. take a look at netflix down for the fifth straight day that one on strong volume. back to you. >> big news in the nfl and for all you new england patriots fans out there, a judge overturning tom brady's four game suspension, domanic chu with the details. they are somewhere celebrating. >> they could be although the story is not done and we know this because the headlines today, the judge, judge berman, overturned the four-game suspension, we maybe did or did not expect this. the nfl has now said that they are going to appeal that decision as well. so basically what you have is a situation where tom brady no longer has to serve his suspension as dictated by a judge, however, that is now open to an appeal which the nfl has said now for the record that they will do. the question then becomes how long will it be before we get a decision, brian, on that appeal.

>> let's bring in nbc sports dave briggs into the conversation. not only nbc sports guy, but also a boston guy as well for a long time, dave, i know. you've got probably a personal interest in this. this was not just a victory by tom brady, was it? this was a loss by the nfl because the judge kind of poked fun at roger goodell, the nfl commissioner, suggesting that he was sort of developing out vigilante justice. >> yeah, you know, it's another stunning rebuke, brian, of roger goodell and the way he dispenses discipline. bill parcells hall of fame coach like to say you are what your record says you are and roger goodell now has lost five straight appeals decisions in the courtroom. so certainly doesn't look guy for the way the process he uses to doll out discipline. the reason the judge said this and overturned the suspension. one, they did not allow jeff pash the nfl's chief counsel they could not cross-examine him

in court. that tom brady was not given notice that he could be suspended for four days for general awareness this have infraction and finally that the nfl did not allow access to their files from their independent investigation. i use air quotes because the judge's decision uses quotes when they call this investigation independent. they clearly were not buying t brian. >> you know, what's interesting about this, guys, this idea, dave, and correct me if i'm wrong here, as you go through some of this decision, the 40 pages' worth that judge berman had, the interesting part about this is there was no commentary about whether he was actually guilty or innocent of over or underinflating footballs. >> he did call into question the science behind the wells report's finding on the deflation amount. >> this is more a decision about the due process or lack thereof involved rather than the actual footballs being over or under inflated, right? >> this is all about the process right now. now, let's be clear, there was zero evidence in this

investigation that tom brady knew about the deflation of footballs or that he played any role in it. so that certainly factored into judge berman's decision, but this is all about the process. i think that's what you are going to see play out in the days, weeks and months ahead. perhaps this process by which the commissioner dolls out discipline at times as the league and players called it arbitrary, maybe that's what needs to be reexamined here. not exactly what the rules are, but how he decides these suspensions. >> and we can also not forget that they won 45-7. it wasn't even close. dave briggs, thank you very much and i'm not even a patriots fan. we have breaking news we have to get to right now with sue herrera. >> thank you very much. kentucky clerk kim davis who has steadfastly refused to issue marriage licenses to gay couples basically was ordered to appear in court and the court says they don't do this likely -- lightly, rather, but she will now be in

custody held in contempt of court. the court hearing is ongoing. she has been taken into custody by a u.s. marshal, judge david bunning says, quote, the courts does not do this lightly. ms. davis has maintained that this is a, quote, heaven or hell decision for her. she has been held repeated by the court toish u those licenses and she has steadfastly refused. she is now in custody and being held in contempt of court. let's take a look at what the market sup to because the nasdaq has now turned negative, the other two indices are sitting at the lows of the day, the dow only up by 38 points, the s&p is up by only 4, the russell has also turned negative. wti crude has also come off its highs of the day, still moving higher by 1% but not as good as where we were sitting earlier on. 46.72. print at 50.60. >> it was interesting because we were getting up to that

resistance level of $40 a barrel now we are under $47 at this point. it's been a difficult thing to discern whether or not the oil is driving the market or market is driving oil. bearish factors jed seem to be shrugged off by this market in terms of the wti trade, traders telling me they do suspect to see buying going into the weekend, especially because it's a long three-day weekend barring any disruption from tomorrow's job report. all size eyes on that. also in focus the market appears to be really disregarding these fundamentals at the moment. we are going to get baker hues recounts tomorrow as well. at this point 46.63 is where we're trading. back to you. china certainly has been grabbing most of the headlines lately and, yes, china is a big global risk right now, after all it is the second biggest economy in the world and one of the fastest growing or at least it was, but do not lose sight of

the fact that there are other global macro flash points that you should be watching as well that maybe are not on the front pages. number one, canada. remember, it is can darks not china that is our biggest trading partner. in fact, we export nearly three times more to canada than to client nachlt we ex boarded about 120 billion to china last year, we export bd $350 building to canada and because of canada's drop or oil's drop the canadian economy is officially in recession. number two, brazil, the world's seventh biggest committee it's already fired nooird deep recession and may contract by more than 2% this year. that would be the biggest contraction in briz land economic history in more than 25 years. of course, china's slow down is a part of the reason why as commodity prices tumble and crush brazil's commodity based economy. your third global macro watch point is greece. although they used to be on the headlines every single day it's

been trumped by china. did you know, mandy, that the greek stock market is the worst performing in the world over the past month, it is performing worse than the shen zin index in china. did i not mention australia and the collapsing australian dollar, that was four. we didn't have room on the wall. >> the other growing risk is of course in europe. this is a very serious problem. the refugee and migrant problem getting worse by the day. syrians, iraqis and others all fleeing war in the middle east trying to push into europe. claudia is in hungry at a train depot. i understand migrants are on that train behind you. >> that's right. there is about a few hundred migrants on that train behind meechlt this was one of three trains that left budapest station this morning.

they thought they were bound for one of the towns near the border with austria and they would have continued from there to try to krost the board from austria and eventually go to germany where most of the people wanted to apply for asylum. this train and as the other trains stopped here 30 miles, stopped at this station because the police wanted to take them to a refugee camp nearby. many refused, including those hundreds of migrants who are still there. now, they have been there for six hours now. they don't want to go to that camp because they know that once they get there they will have to apply for asylum and that's a process that can take nation from -- the conditions have only been described as poor and basic. they are refusing food and water. this is a stand off that could go on for a few hours. they have put up signs that say freedom, germany, but in particular no camp. back to you. >> i'm sure we will continue to

follow the developments there. thank you. back to the markets where stocks were rallying for a second day. the dow was up by triple digits but it's been a pretty wild ride lately. we're currently losing steam. the nasdaq is in negative territory, the s&p and dow are only just sitting on the break even line. we have a big debate going on among investors about who or what is to blame for the recent volatility, is it the hedge funds, high speed traders, etfs? that is a made. you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. turns romantic, why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions

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welcome back to "power lunch." let's get a check on biotech stocks. currently one of the worst performing sectors not s&p 500 industry group wise, those big cap names, all down by about a percent or more. the nasdaq biotech ebf also near its lows of the day so far down by 2%. a key focus for a lot of investors given the market turmoil are those biotech stocks. shares of b & g foods are soaring up more than 10% with the company striking a deal with general mills for about $765 billion in cash. verizon shares getting a boost,

rising its quarrel dividend by 2.5%. the stock is up by 1%. tesla says it will begin delivering its first luxury electric cross over the model x on september 29th. we will bring you more on tesla in the next hour. the shares are sitting at 246 and change down by three-tenths of a percent. >> our chief washington correspondent john harwood sitting down with the most powerful people in politics, it is all part of his speak easy series. he spoke with scott walker. >> it's not about a redistribution of wealth issue, it's about saying we will give people help -- >> insurance itself is redistribution. you don't accept that principle. >> nochlt we allow people to buy into -- given the freedom, all about freedom, we give patients as consumers the freedom to choose or if you want to have healthcare at all. you can control your own money. we do it not only with buying

healthcare plan, we do it with money for health savings account whether you have your own healthcare plan through your employer or buy one individually. >> to see john's entire interview you can go to cnbc.com/speak easy. >> john, republican presidential candidate donald trump set for a big meeting in the next hour. tell us what's going on and what is at stake with this? >> mandy, i'm at trump tower where donald trump is going to have a press conference at 2:00. we expect that he is going to come out and say that he is committed to pre business the chairman of the republican national committee that he has pledged not to run as an independent and to support the republican nominee even if it's not him. this is something that donald trump has refused to do including when he was asked specifically with the opening question at the fox news debate a few weeks ago. so it's a significant development or shift by trump.

i don't know how much republicans or other republican candidates in the race are going to take that assurance to the bank. donald trump is anything if -- if he's predictable -- that is to say he is unpredictable. so this is a step forward for the republican party, but i think it shouldn't be viewed as a definitive one depending on how the rest of the campaign goes. >> nonetheless it could be quite an interesting turn. thank you very much. this is some high end housing and it is not for maybe who you are thinking. dina ol lick live in athens, georgia. >> i'm either going to tell but seriously tricked out housing or go for a swim. to find out you will have to stay tuned coming up next on "power lunch." no student's ever photographed mean ms. colegrove.

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video vip entrances, infinity pools, luxe surroundings, not just mandy's house, it is the new wave of college housing and diana olick live in athens, georgia with this story. >> brian, i'm hating this assignment. no, i am not coming to you from the four seasons i'm coming to you from the university of georgia. this is the new face of off campus housing and as the competition among developers in this space heats up luxury student living is only getting more lucrative. the standard developed by athens

based landmark properties is aptly named because apparently this is what students today demand. the resort-style pool, fitness center, racquetball, sauna, gameroom, private study lounge and granite laden apartment suites that would balk at the idea of cinder block walls. the most expensive suites lease up the fastest. >> we will be catering morton 10% of our unit types making them super premium, you know, offering larger square footage, more amenities for those residents, maybe two story rooftop town homes with private rooftop pat yoes. >> how do students pay for all this? prices aren't much higher than on campus where costs have been soaring. developers charge by the bed not the unit and they target big public schools which have lower tuitions. landmark is taking the brand across the nation growing

footprint and profit and as for the kids -- >> what's going to happen when you get out in the real world and can't afford all this? >> it's going to be a downgrade after college for sure. >> now, if you are worried about any student demand falling off as the millennials age out of their college years, analysts say don't worry about this space because foreigner demand is actually rising, you have more foreign students coming in and they love all this. i mean, jump off the edge of the infinite you are on campus. guys, back to you. tell the bosses i think i need a ph.d. >> you do. you do, diana. don't we all. let's all sign up g back to school. thank you very much. okay. to the bond market where rick santelli is tracking the action at the cmp. what's the bond plarkt up to now? >> it's all about europe. my line is that mario draggi hit the switch for the ham officer wheel and all the markets moved in predictable fashion when you

put qe in a longer time frame. the real issue can't what its short term imp kapgss is it's its backside of that. look at a two day chart of boone deals and i picked two day because it shows how much below yesterday's range we moved, when you look at our 10 year and 30 years you can see what a different setup it is. we still have stubborn rates all things considered and it's difficult for me to the to look at these stubborn rates especially 30s and think they are not leading the equity markets. if you look at foreign exchange two days of your rows said it all. the pivot on the trading floor, 110 is the area to pay attention to. mandy and the gang, back to you. >> let's take a look at gold prices that lower euro stronger dollar is not helping gold, currently down by 0.8 of a percent. china is a major gold consumer h

silver, copper played yum and copper. cop sr at its highest in three years but played yum and plats numb are moving higher. let's get to dom chu for a market flash. >> shares of medtronic down by close to a percent. the medical device makers beat estimates helped along with recent acquisition of kavidiun. they said they will cut 500 jobs since that acquisition has taken place. the shares down 2% so far this year but med tron knicks certainly a focus in that healthcare arena today. >> a big debate raging on wall street about who is to blame for all the volatility in this market turmoil. is it hedge funds, etfs, high speed traders perhaps? >> tomorrow a big day on the calendar? not the final jobs report, we're talking about "star wars" force

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hello, everyone, i'm sue herrera and here is your cnbc news update. five chinese navy ships sighted in the bering sea from begun their return home according to the chief of naval operations. they say they don't view that incident an apparent first for china's military as unexpected for alarming. >> the nfl says it will appeal a federal judge's ruling overturning tom brady's four game suspension for redeflagt footballs but the nfl did l. not seek to put a hold on the ruling while it appealappeals. vice president joe biden meeting to talk about the iranian nuclear deal. he told them those in congress to oppose that deal with hurting u.s. foreign policy. and a new report from the cdc says the use of cigars and cigarettes among high school

athletes is lower than nonathletes, but athletes are two times more likely to use smokeless tobacco products and the reason, they are under the misconception that smokeless tobacco is harmless. that's the cnbc news update. back to you, brian t does contain nicotine. >> i just wonder if the cdc needed taxpayer money to discover that athletes might be less likely to smoke than people who sit on couches. >> apparently they felt they did have to do that study. >> sue, thank you very much. let's get to the markets right now. it says read the board so let's bring it up. the dow jones industrial average is up 68 points, the nasdaq and the s&p 500 are also higher. let us check back in with bob pass annie at the stock exchange. >> the important thing about today is the rally has held. it is off of its highs.

let's take a look at the internals on the market right now. two to one advancing declining stocks, oddly it doesn't feel that way. you see the move we had to the upside and selling off in the middle of the day. you see that blip down there later on. two to one advance in declining stocks. the buying has only averaged today, we have had heavy volume, this is just average. volatility the mix has been stable today, only a point or two on either side of positive or neg ditch. the big problem today is oil. that blip that we saw 45 minutes ago if you put up oil here was oil moving to the down side. that was a little bit of a problem for the overall markets. we rose as oil rose and moved down. if you take a look at the xle which is the energy etf you can see the same situation here. they essentially moved in lockstep. there is that orange line the energy etf and white line is crude oil. it has moved completely in lockstep today. in a certain way in lockstep with the rest of the market as well. the other major glitch that we

have had in the middle of the day has been healthcare, not just biotech but even the big healthcare names, they all had a nice little move to the upside in the beginning of the day and just sort of lost steam in general. no particular news there, but sometimes you take advantage of selling your winners in the middle of the day. guys, back to you. we are talking of losing steam, the nasdaq right now is sitting just marginally to the upside but did dip into negative territory during the first half hour of our show. as for the movers on the nasdaq let's take a look at the names there. you've got, for example, frontier communications, micron tech, cisco, netflix amongst others. >> read the last one, that's what's that company, aetern aeterna zentaris. >> in a letter to investors earlier this week lee cooper founder of omega advisors said fundamental factors like china and interest rate unsirnty ask

k. not fully explain the magnitude and velocity in the decline in the equity markets last month. he is joining a growing chorus of investors. he instead blames the volatility on systemic and technical investors. who or what are we talking about here? let us bring in domanic view, we have amman javers. >> who is to blame here? >> let's set this up because i know that amman has a load of stuff to add to this. we want to bring you up to speed on some of the parties that are being stalked to. hedge fund, mutual type investors, maybe large institutions and some of them are maybe centered around something called risk parity trading so what is risk parity trading and why are people like leon cooper man citing them in their notes? if you take a look at risk

parity strategies, huge cass bast ket that i know vest in a whole different type of things, rather than saying let's allocate 60% stocks, 40% bonds or 25% to this or that. what they look to do is look at what the inherent risks or volatility is and seek to balance them out. instead of saying 60%, 50/50, bonds and stocks, maybe stocks contribute more volatility even though they are half of the portfolio they want to spread that more. those types of investors do things more computer driven. ctas, i will say one for group that decided among these guys they are basically advisors, hedge fund type investors, advisory companies that look to trade on trends. all right? they use computer models, they use mostly derivatives, that's futures and options and they do a lot of stuff in the futures market and they have been seen moving the markets as well. that's the set the stage scene. we can talk about the advent of

etfs and how much they contribute to volatility as well. >> there's a lot for policy make towers consider as they look at what'sing happening in marketing structure. we say lew sit down last night and lew without saying very much said that treasury is asking some questions about high frequency trading trying to understand its impact on the markets. i think there are a number of things for policy make towers consider, what happens in a market where you have computers that are trading faster than the speed of human thought, that is developments can happen in the market faster than the human brain can understand and process and react, how do we structure a market regulatory scheme in a world where that's the case? then the other question is when you have not just man versus machine, but machine versus machine, how do you study the way these algorithms interact with each other and prevent them from executing a cascading effect where you see the markets gap down suddenly because all of the machines suddenly decide we are all going to sell at the

same time, liquidity evaporates and you see these big gaps down like we saw last week. a lot for policymakers to digest but they're moving carefully because it's complicated and all very new. >> it's a pertinent question for the confidence of the retail investor who might think they're up against the machines but if we could quantify, dom, what percentage of global daily trading is actually these so-called machines that are programmed to sell or buy? >> it's not large with regard to the grand overall market scheme, they are a very small portion of the market when you look at the entire size of global mashlgts. the interesting part about this is how much more dependent strategies have become on computerized trading like amman said. mutual funds used to be the way most people invested in stocks. that provides daily liquidity, you put in an order, get a price at the end of the day, they skasher r you out, there you go. these days etf has become a much bigger part of the market.

these people who provide etfs have to make and dee deem these basket trades multiple times on a daily basis and that some people say argue -- >> a couple things. one maybe question to amman. the point would be we get a lot of people to say i don't invest in stocks i only buy etf. if you're investing in etf you're investing in stocks. know what you own. amman, there stl a relatively simple solution to this and we're never going to do it and i'm going to sound like an old foggiy, could we go back to fractions? because the decimal zags of the market has created a lot of the platform because the spreads are so small. we look back to fractions maybe that will slow it down a little bit. >> it's an interesting point. i think politically the train has left the station on that. one thing that people aren't looking at is looking at inside these al gore rhythms, they are all proprietary, the big hedge funds guard these things like they are in fort knox, we don't

know how the algorithms operate, but are they too similar to one another, that is, are they all doing something more or less the same and does that have an affect when they all decide to make the same decision -- >> like a herd mentality. >> are you getting a herd of computers instead of herd of people. >> if the program is the same the triggers are the same. >> with al gore rhythms, it is a fancy way of saying trading instructions. it says if this hams do this, this this then happens do this. it's like a big decision tree. the interesting part about this is technology as we know it today has made this possible because the computer -- >> every retail investor does the same thing on a small scale. they will say i bought a stock at 40, did g. into my td ameritrade account if it hits 50 sell the order. you are talking about this on a

massive complicated institutional sale. we do t too. retail. >> yes we do, but this is these complicated trading algorithms can go on for pages and pages and pages and they look at everything from tics in gold prices, anything global that's happening to be an input. >> let's continue the debate. continue the conversation. is leon cooper man right, are these so-called algorithms or trading instructions as you put them, dom, from hedge funds contributing to the market sell i don't have. joining us nick coal police and tim courtney. i home i'm saying that correctly, sir. >> yes. >> nick what, do you think? >> well, i think he has certainly got a point. cooper man has a point. there was a lot of volunteering tilt related to that trading. the average year the s&p 500 moves up or down more more than

1% roughly 54 days a year, last year we only had 38 days, we were coming off a low volatility period of time. this year we are already at 42 days so we are already more volatile than last year. we expect that to continue, whether it be because of an individual set of algorithms or programs or just more market volatility, we're heading back to a more volatile, more normal market. >> what about you, tim? >> yeah, i would agree. we see the same things. from 2012 through the early part of 2015 the market was unusually quiet, but i do think that these trading systems are having an affect on the markets, you can see the big swings that happened at the open and at the close. but i think also this is -- i don't think this is new, i think, you know, back in the 80s we had the invention of portfolio insurance which caused -- that was a big contributor to the one day move we had in 1987. so i don't know that these machines are really doing any favors for their human traders. we think, you know, after

trading expenses and after taxes they are not adding a whole lot of value -- >> but is it too late? is it so entrenched to unwind that system, tim? >> yeah, i think so. i think there are always systems that are coming to try to exploit, you know, mispricings in the market, but i think what the market has done over time, it's done a good job of ash trajing those price differences way and they will ash traj it away quickly and these super fast trades will not award their investors with returns. >> i love, lover, love tim's points. all this stuff that's happening maybe just doesn't work. maybe it's just not good. it's like you get a ph.d. from mit writing an algorithms and he lose sz money because the algorithms doesn't work. warren buffet doesn't even have a computer on his desk and he is arguably the greatest investor.

>> i think twoef address the issue, it's creating volatility and to some deck deg -- >> is it, though? the vix was low for four years. >> that's a fair point. i think underlying the question is if you want to blame the algos for the drops two weeks ago and give them credit for the increase since where do you cut the line? the bottom line is where is fundamental value not just day to day ticks. >> talk being getting rid of computers, getting rid of devices to what degree the fact we are 24/7 connected, all checking our phones, you can quickly check the stock price to what degree are individual investors -- around there are a lot of sophisticated educated investors out there, but nonetheless there are some who will react knee jerk like and react to their emotions and see, oh, my god, it's dropping, i'm going to sell now. is that contributing to the volt tilt? >> it absolutely is. we did a study for our clients

that showed there is an intense amount of retail interest on things like google searching stock quotes right at the open, clearly that's when a lot of individual investors feel comfortable trading, they respond to what they hear overnight, trade the open and don't look at it again until the next day. that does them a disservice. our clients trade all day long. that's what the smart none did. i would encourage investors to look at the market throughout the whole day. >> i believe we are going to leave it there. it was a good discussion one that will no doubt continue on down the line. we appreciate t thank you. have a wonderful day. >> you can go to "power lunch".cnbc.com to see which sectors nick says that you should be avoiding right now, staying away from. well, the force officially awakens in december when the latest "star wars" movie hits the theater, but promotion around that movie you might have heard is already very much awake. julia bore accident live in

service with that story. julia. for force friday disney and lucas film are unveiling hundreds of new products, from this light sab for versions of monopoly to remote drold rowboat. we will tell what you this means for disney's bottom line.

julia boorstin live in service

joy global down today with the equipment maker reporting a 37% decline in quarter profit due to weak demand. joy global dragging down caterpillar as well. currently the biggest loser on the dow with a drop of 2.7%. campbell's soup posting an 8.6% decline pressured by a strong dollar and weak u.s. simple meal sales. met sales from $1.6 billion from $1.85 billion.

>> to you tomorrow might be september 4th but to "star wars" fans it is -- and i'm going to do this on purpose -- september 4th. fourth friday is the day disney is pushing the force awakens. julia boorstin is live with the details. your hair looks great. >> it's very windy here in san francisco. brian, for the hundreds of new products that are going on sale tomorrow disney and retailers are pulling out all the stops, treating force friday is an opportunity to start marketing that film which hits theaters in december and also to generate potentially billions of dollars in merchandise sales. the disney store, toys r us, walmarts plus amazon are making a big push at employed knight, they are opening their doors at 12:01 to promote a range of new toys, gadgets and "star wars" related clothing. jpmorgan analyst says a force

friday could accelerate disney's consumer products division growth. she projected half a billion dollars in incremental revenues and $2 million in additional profit. that's a boost for disney and hasbro which has the majority of the toy licenses as well as lego and retailers particularly toys r us. to build excitement and appeal to a younger generation disney a leveraging its acquisition of makers studio. given them the new products to unbox in an 18-hour live stream that is leading up to force friday that live stream is going on right now. disney's strategy works licensing experts say is it will maximize the merchandising potential, it will get die hard fans and maker studios fans to go out and buy products now, as we get closer to the launch we will get more of the traditional toy buyers who are looking to buy toys for their kids in that

holiday season. >> it's fantastic marketing, hats off to whoever came one force friday, but is it actually going to the stock higher? is it going to move the needle? >> in terms of the merchandise sales it will move the needle. the fact that they are selling the toys over that three and a half month period, licensing experts say they are really getting multiple bites at the apple, sell some now and continue to roll out products and generate excitement. the fact that they are not just selling the products just in november right before the holidays, they think this is a much smarter strategy to maximize sales. we're talking about half a billion dollars in incremental revenue just in fiscal 2016. the outlook in bullish for disney. >> in honor of force friday i'm going to wear my hair like princess leah. the one chap that says the worst may not be over for these wild swings in the market. plus, why china's market pain could be america's gain.

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telecom, consumer staples and materials leading the gains, healthcare in the red and some of the leading etfs, the vanguard material index up 1%, kbe, the spider s&p bank is also up about 1%. if you missed any of the big stories in the past hour you can go visit the site at "power lunch".cnbc.com. the s&p 500 is largely in the green today but there are big cap technology names in the red, those include names such as apple and facebook. which big examination are the best bets right now? that's straight ahead. plus republican presidential candidate donald trump getting ready to speak moments from now. we will carry it live. we are back in two minutes. here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time.

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what went right? everything. thank you. with threat intelligence, behavioral analytics, and 6000 experts, ibm security will help keep you out of the news. my dad's company wasn't hacked today. cool. welcome back to "power lunch." you are looking at a live picture there in new york city of trump plaza. a lot of people gathering there. why? any second now donald trump is going to speak after being with republican party leaders. he is going to be doing a live press conference. cnbc will be taking it for you and our own john howard you can see on the right of your screen is standing there and we will be joining him as well, he is going

to be covering that event for us. make sure you tune into cnbc during the second hour of "power lunch" for live coverage of donald trump's news conference. >> just a smidge of interest there. >> look at that. >> wow. >> yeah, wow. in the meantime, before all of that excitement happens dominic chu want to kick off for market flash. >> that's a lot of traffic. shares of net flick we are watching that closely down by 4% so far today track for this fifth straight loss for those shares, the stock is the second worst performing stock in the entire s&p 500 so far today. they have dropped 14% over the past week. they have doubled so far this year. back over to you. the s&p has been moving, moving higher, i mean, it's certainly off its highs of the day, up now only by 0.2 of a percent but there is big cap tick in the red including apple

and facebook. which big cap should you be placing your bets on? taking advantage of dips. margaret vitrano is with clear bridge investments and joins us now. we couldn't possibly go through all of them so narrow it down, what do we avoid, what do we buy? >> you're right, there is a lot of volatility. i think that that probably is going to continue. when we think about the volatility we think actually the silver lining is that it creates really nice opportunities to buy companies that we're happy to own for the next four years. >> like what? >> adobe is one. if you look at the stock chart you would say you are late to the party here. the stock has had nice performance over the last couple of years and handle beat the market we still think that there is a lot of runway. still several million people out there who have not yet shifted to the subscription is that adobe is offering. they will need to shift over the next couple of years. in addition it surprises me

sometimes to think that some estimates are that 40% of all software is pirated. if you think about adobe's software and the fact that subscriptions are harder to pie rate that shift is going to be a nice tail wind for them to start to capture some lost revenue that they haven't been able to generate in the past. >> another one that you are looking at here is american express. >> yeah. >> there was that costco disruption. did that create an opportunity for you? >> i think it's an interesting opportunity. this is a company that we still think over a longer period of time can generate double digit earnings growth. we generate return on equity north of 25%. they have been very good at cutting costs over the last couple years and we still think there are a couple hundred basis points of margin expansion. if you take a step back, we like the u.s. consumer, one of the few bright spots out there. american express is a derivative play because mor over half of their revenue come from u.s.

consumer spending. >> your fund is up 2% year to date. >> yes. >> that is it for the first hour. i have to ask a datel because donald trump and yourself are pretty much going to be hosting the next hour. 2:00 wall street, 8:00 a.m. in honolulu. the dow barrel up now, the dow about to turn negative, up 2 points now, oil down as well. oil and stocks both coming down. we are going to keep an eye on all this. the dow is now down. we are going to keep an eye on all this. first we begin with the big news in the race for the white house right now presidential hopeful poll leader donald trump kicking off a meter with republican national committee in new york city. let's get to onharwood with more. >> we are expecting donald trump any moment in the lobby of this building to talk about his conversations with the republican national committee, presumably about pledging not to run as an independent. now, i don't think anybody could take that to the bank whatever he says today, he is an

unpredictable guy, he refused to rule out an independent candidacy at the first debate that fox news sponsored a couple of weeks ago. the one thing republicans know is if he does run as an independent that would be catastrophic for their chances of defeating hillary clinton and winning the white house because of the kind of voter that donald trump has been attracting. so he's going to come out here, we can see he's got a backdrop, i see a lot of women, a lot of asian americans. he has taken criticism for being insensitive to women, criticism for being a candidate of angry white voters. it appears that he's got a back up band in the form of this group of people behind him and we will see what his message s brian, with rinse preeb business. >> the comment that i got the most from people was somebody saying to me, is this really happening? i think people have been waiting for the donald trump train to

pull into the station, walk away, maybe make some back end deal with schblt i keep getting people asking me is this -- this really could happen. >> well, it depends on what you mean if. could he be the republican nominee? >> yes. >> i seriously doubt t could he be president? i do not think so. but he is leading the polls, we're still in the summer, got a few months, people haven't started heavy advertising yet, the heavy crossfire between campaigns hasn't started and the moment when voters, brian, get a little bit more serious about how they view candidates, the filter through which they evaluate them, we're not there, but i have to say everybody has been surprised at how well he has done so far and how the duration of that boom. it's certainly been longer than the boom for people like herman kane and michele bachmann four years ago. we will have to see how this plays out. >> especially as he is as you

are mentioning offending a lot of groups. do you get the feel that the asian faerns and women in the crowd were placed stra tej clee to make him look better >> i definitely think so. i don't know what message he will have in conjunction with that. he has been sparring with jeb bush and remember they had some back and forth over the term anchor babies and jeb bush said he wasn't talking about hispanics, he was talking about asians, perhaps donald trump wants to make a point about that. he has hit jeb bush for not supporting funds for women's health, perhaps the presence of women is going to underscore a point like that haes making but certainly the rhetorical back and forth from jeb bush's side has picked up lately. don't know if it's helping him or not, but this could be another -- >> fair enough, but let us also be fair. every single politician in either party has a stacked deck behind him or her, they've got everybody out there, they represent everybody in the

world, southerners, northerners, westerners, easterners whatever it might be. >> that's right. >> what do we know if anything about donald trump's funding situation? yes, he is wealthy himself personally but his campaign is separate. how much money does he have or is willing to perhaps slow at this campaign? >> brian, i have to wrap here because donald trump is about to come out and start this press conference, but donald trump i believe has committed to self-funding his campaign, not to get a lot of donations from other people, so i would expect that what donald trump is going to do is not mess around with the need to raise money and the time it takes, but rather fund his own campaign. >> john, thanks so much. we will be back to john harwood and donald trump of course once donald trump walks out to that podium. the press conference is expected to happen in moments. let's get you caught up on what's going on in the markets. the dow turned negative, s&p 500 just bounced off of session lows, we were wer in positive territory for the dow as well as the s&p 500 basically almost

unchanged on the day, the nasdaq is trending lower, down by a third of a percent or so thanks in part by apple as well as net friction. let's get down to bob pass sean on the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> a lot of people were wondering why are we positive on the day? china being closed was the most important factor, he gave that 40%. i would agree. oil rally in the middle of the day was strong and dragi making bullish comments. that was clearly is key factors. bottom line is we moved down right after the european close and i think the major factor here is what was going on with oil, it was another volatile day in oil. if you put up oil 6% trading range. once oil started coming down, about the time the european closed, that's when the markets drooped and about an hour ago oil took another leg down and the whole market moved to the down side. if you look at the xle which is

the energy etf you can see that moved up and down with the overall markets and then we started drooping on that. the other issue is healthcare, biotech has been weak all throughout the day and the sector leadership has been pretty broad overall. >> thank you, bob. we have to jump n i apologize, buddy. let's go back now to that donald trump news conference. >> thank you very much, everybody. thank you for all being here. this is some turnout. migrate honor. the chairman just left as you probably know and he has been extremely fair. the rnc has been absolutely terrific over the last two-month period. as you know that's what i've wanted. i've wanted fairness. i don't have to be treated any differently than anybody else. i just wanted fairness from the republican party. we are leading in every single poll, a new poll came out today where we are over 30%.

we've actually hit numbers as high as 35 and 40%, and frankly i felt that the absolute best way to win and to beat the democrats and very easily, i think, beat the democrats no matter who it may be, whether it's hillary or anybody else, and i think maybe hillary is going to have a very hard time frankly with what's happening getting to the starting gate, the best way for the republicans to win is if i win the nomination and go directly against whoever they happen to put up and for that reason i have signed the pledge. [ applause ] >> so i will be totally pledging my allegiance to the republican party and the conservative principles for which it stands and we will go out and we will

fight hard and we will win. we will win. and most importantly, we will make our country great again because that's what it's all about. we have to make our country great again. with that, are there any questions? [ inaudible question ] >> this is a self-funded campaign. we have our heart in it, we have our soul in it. i don't need money. i don't want money and this is going to be a campaign like i think no other. i'm not controlled by lobbyists, i'm not controlled by anybody. i'm controlled by the people of the country in order to make our country great again. yes, sir. [ inaudible question ]

>> i got nothing. all i have -- yeah, i really got nothing. the question was what did i get for signing the pledge. absolutely nothing other than the assurance that i would be treated fairly and i've seen that over the last two months. they really have been very fair. [ inaudible question ] >> no, i have no intention of changing my mind. [ inaudible question ] >> well, i think the bhig thing, dana, that's changed and it's been obvious to all, number one, after i announced we went up like a rocket ship, nobody thought i would run, they said he won't run and put in his papers. i did that, the papers in terms of the company turned out to be spectacul spectacular, it's a great company, i built a great company and all of the other papers have turned out to be well received. i think the thing that changed was the fact that i went to number one place quickly after i signed and after i in this

building notified everybody that i would be running for president. so i think the biggest thing is that i went early to number one and the rnc has treated me with great respect. so that was very important. yes. [ inaudible question ] >> no i see no circumstances under which i would tear up that pledge. >> -- and that he didn't need preeb business to come and meet with him. >> well, you don't have to be when you ever at 2%. >> it's one of those things. that's the way life works. and i like governor krischris t by the way. >> the chairman asked if he could come up, you saw him, he was here a little bile ago and i was greatly honored that he did come up, frankly.

[ inaudible question ] >w i think when you get down to it we are a nation that speaks english and i think when we are in this nation we should be speaking english and that's how assimilation takes and that's how -- whether people like it or not that's how we assimilate and that's how we go on to that next phase and next stage. that's how people that don't speak -- i'm not just talking about spanish, i'm talk being from various parts of the world that's how they will become successful and do great. i think it's more appropriate to be speaking english. yes. >> he says there is no correlation between immigrants and violent crime. why should america trust a man who ignores the facts to push a message of fear? >> well, one of the things i want to do and i feel very strongly it's a country based on borders and our country is based on laws. when people come into the

country illegally we should not allow that. this is not from south america, this is not from mexico, this is from all over the world. when people come illegally we cannot allow that. i want people to come legally, i want very much to take care of our border because our southern border is a total mess. that's been proven. and interestingly, a couple of months ago when i announced i made some very strong statements about the crime and the problems that were happening and i've been proven right and many of the people in this audience actually have apologized to me which i very much appreciate. of course, they haven't done it publicly, but these are minor details, some day they will. the fact is that we are a nation that wants and needs borders, we are a nation that wants and needs and is based on laws and we will make sure that that takes place. with that being said, i want people to come into our country legally. i want to have a big fat

beautiful open door. i want people of great talent to come in, for silicon valley, i want engineers, i want physicists, i want people with great talent to come into the united states. when people graduate from college you can be number one in your class at harvard or number one at yale or the wharton school of finance or princeton or stamford and immediately if you are not a citizen of the united states you get thrown out of the country. we want those people to stay. we want people of great talent to be in the united states, to work here and ultimately to become a citizen. >> would you be willing to comment on what happened this morning with the jailing of ms. davis the kentucky -- >> i don't know enough about it to comment on it. was she jailed? i really don't know much about it. yes, go ahead. >> what is your response to the "washington post" article saying that you cheat during golf.

>> that's absolutely false. i win at golf. i win at golf. that i can tell you. >> -- you don't understand there's families like his that are multi-cultural and speak spanish at home >> i understand how the system works better than anybody. i understand the political system and i understand also very much a system of coming in for illegal immigrants. don't forget, if i didn't bring up the subject of illegal immigration you wouldn't be asking the question, nobody would even be talking about immigration and immigration and in particular illegal immigration has become a very big factor. now, a lot of bad things have happened with respect to crime since i brought it up, but if i didn't bring it up immigration would not even be a subject that we're talking about and it happens to be a very important subject. i have to say this, it can also be a very positive subject because i believe so strongly in

immigration and i just -- we have to stop illegal immigration and we have to look forward to great immigration done in a legal manner. but if i didn't bring it up, nobody would be talk being it. go ahead. >> as far as your immigration plan is concerned there is gridlock in the congress right now and there could very well be more gridlock. if you were to become president if you don't get those 60 votes then what are you going to do as our president? >> well, there is gridlock in congress and that's because there is no leadership at the top. you have to be able to lead. you have to get people into your office, you have to get people -- go to them, any way you want to do it but you have to be able to lead. there is no leadership at the top. signing executive orders is not the way our country was supposed to be run. >> a little closer to home, times square and the disorder there, the naked women, where do you stand on that? >> i don't want to talk about that. it's inappropriate. yes, sir, go ahead.

>> you came out on at which time nr support of your friend tom brady. >> tom brady. >> would you fire goodell? >> well, tom brady is a very good friend of mine, he is a great guy, for those of you that don't know him he is a very honorable guy and an honest guy and a truly great athlete. he is really a very good friend of mine and i just spoke to him a little while ago, he is so thrilled and so happy. tom brady i think what they've done is terrible and he has been exonerated as i understand it because i just heard about, but i'm very happy for tom. as far as the commissioner is concerned, they're having a rough year. let's day r face it. >> on immigration what would you say to the european leaders about the problem of immigration in europe? >> well, in europe they have tremendous problems people going in and storming and it's a huge humanitarian problem. the united states has tremendous problems of their own. we have infrastructure that we have to fix, we have bridges and

roads and tunnels and everything is falling apart. our nation is in such trouble, that's why being a builder and great builder and successful builder i think will greatly help. we have so many of our own problems including the border, including the wall which we will get built, including all of the things we have, healthcare which is a mess. if you look at obamacare the premiums have gone up 50rks 55%. the deductibles on obamacare is through the roof. so we have a lot of problems. we have to take care of our vets. we have to build up our military. just the other day general oriano said that the army is in the worst shape in its history in terms of preparedness. now, for them to be in bad shape with the way we are and with the world hating us, and you look at llc -- and i've said she is the

worst secretary of state in the history of this country. now, in all fairness because of the agreement that's about to be finalized with iran, john kerry may very well take her place. i think that agreement is a disaster for this country, for israel, for the middle east. it's going to lead to nuclear proliferation, the 24-day clause, everything about -- we don't even get our prisoners back. you say who negotiates a thing like that? that won't happen, i can guarantee you, with a president trump. all right. one or two more questions. >> mr. trump. >> yeah. [ inaudible question ] >> you will see it later. yeah. they don't want to hear it. go ahead. >> could you say that, please. >> you said at the beginning you signed the pledge because the rnc agreed to treat you with more respect. what specifically is the rnc going to be doing and how are they --

>> all i want them to do -- yeah, say hello to rosanna and greg. great people. i would say very simply i just want to be treated like everybody else. you see, i was always the fair haired boy, big contributor, nobody knows the system but i was on the other side, i was the elite, i was the fair haired person, once i ran i was a little bit of an outside, i became an outsider because i was running because i wasn't supposed to run. i'm this businessman that people have given me great credit but i'm not supposed to be running for office. the fact is our country is being killed on trade by client fashion by japan, by mexico, both at the border and on trade, and i'm not knocking those countries, their leaders are much, much smarter than our leaders. they are absolutely killing us. client fashion taking our jobs, taking our money, taking our base and think of this, we owe china $1.4 trillion and we are

paying them interest. we own japan with all of the cars coming in, the same amount, $1.4 trillion. that's like a magic act. they send the cars n they take our jobs, they do everything and we owe them money. that's not going to happen with me. been a long time. go. [ inaudible question ] >> well, jeb bush is a very nice man. i will be honest. i think he is a very nice person. i think he is a very low energy person and i don't think that's what the country needs. i hear that he is going to spend a lot of money on negative ads on me and honestly, look, he's getting the money from special interests, he's getting the money from lobbyists and his donors and they are making him do it because he is crashing in the polls. so i don't know what's going to happen. if he spends $20 million or $25 million on negative ads, i don't know. i know that my life will continue.

i just don't know. i mean, nobody has ever spent money on ads against me, but he probably has to do that, although it would not be the way i've done t one of the things that i'm most honored about is that so far everybody that's attacked me has gone down the tubes. you have lindsey graham, attacked me, he was 3% now he is at zero. you had perry attack him, he was at 4 or 5%, now he is getting out of the race. rand paula tacked me, i see the last poll, the monmouth poll just came out where i'm leading by double figures and rand paul is down to less than 2% and he attacked me. now, jeb bush also just went down in the monmouth poll very big. so, i don't know, i mean, they're going to spend -- he is going to spend lobbyists money and special interest money. remember this, they have total control over jeb and hillary and everybody else that takes that money. nobody knows the system better

than me. they have total control. you understand it very long because you have been covering it for a long time. those people who are putting up millions of dollars have total control over your candidate. i will tell you this, nobody is putting up millions of dollars for me, i'm pulgt up my -- putting up my own money. in fact, i feel a little bit foolish. people are offering me millions and millions of dollars. you know, when you are in first place you can collect so much money and i keep turning them down. i feel like am i a fool? i feel very foolish. and then i was in iowa last week i said, what do you think, can i take -- one man offered me -- a big lobbyist offered me $5 million for my campaign. i said to the crowd in iowa, great crowd, 4,000 people, i said, can i take it? and lubl i'm not going to do anything, i promise you, i swear to you, i won't do anything and they all stood up and said, no, no don't take t the fact is i'm

the only self funder, i'm putting up my own money, i know there have been five or six super pacs where people are forming super pacs for trump, i have nothing to do with them. you are not allowed to have anything to do with them so i don't know what they're going to do. hopefully if they're going to do something it will be nice but i don't know anything about them. in a nutshell i'm funding my own campaign, nobody else s when people advertise -- and i hope the voters can see this -- every negative ad they see about me is paid for by lobbyists and special interests so just remember that. yeah, go ahead. >> you've been hit for your slogan by marco rubio and you are talking now about all the problems in america. do you mean to imply that america is not great right now? and so is there any country that's more great? >> our country can be doing much better. we have deficits that are enormous, we have all bad trade agreements, we have an army that the head said is not prepared, we have a military that needs help and especially in these

times. we have nuclear weapons that you look at 60 minutes they don't even work. okay? if anybody saw that report. the phones don't work, they're 40 years old, they have wires that are no good. nothing works. our country doesn't work. everybody wins except us. we need victories in this country. we don't have victories anymore. [ inaudible question ] >> our country will be great again, but right now our country has major problems. yes, ma'am. >> carly fiorina has attacked you but her numbers are on the rise. >> who is? >> carly fiorina. >> yes, carly. >> what do you think -- >> i think it's great that she was in the debate. i was in favor of her being, i think she should be in the debate. i don't like the fact that there are 11 people now as i understand t they are not getting rid of rand paul or somebody, and they should because there's too many people. when you have 11 you are not going to hear me and you're not going to hear other people talking and i think that's too

bad. i think 11 is a lot of people but i was very happy that she got into the debate because frankly she deserved to be in the debate. okay. >> do you think vice president biden will get into the race? >> i think maybe he is inclined not to get into the race. i think it's going to depend on what happens with hillary clinton. a lot of people think she will not be able to make it legally to the starting gate, i think it depends on what happens with her. i think if she gets out he will get in, if she stays in he may not. who knows? >> jeb bush's campaign manager said you are tearing apart the gop. jeb bush said you don't believe on tolerance and the rnc chairman did come here but where is he? >> he's not supposed to be here. he was here, up in my office and he got the pledge and we are very happy about that. we don't want anything -- and i told him, i said, i don't know if it's appropriate reince, for

you to be here but i don't want anything -- you guys will end up saying he's endorsing donald trump, that would be inappropriate for him. i suggested that i'm fine with him not being here because i don't want anybody to think he's endorsing. as far as jeb is concerned, i watched him in morning on television and it's a little bit sad. don't forget, he was supposed to win and he just doesn't have the energy. what he does have is a lot of money that was given to him, again, by special interest donors and lobbyists and i just hope that if he spends money on ads, which he may not, if i were him i'd spend money on positive ads about himself because if he knocks me, assuming people leave and maybe they are at a point where they are not going to leave because they're fed up with what's happening in it country but i think they will go to people other than jeb. yeah, go ahead.

>> a new poll has the majority saying that president obama is a muslim and wasn't born in the u.s. >> i don't know. right now i'm interested in jobs. one thing and one of the groups that was actually cnn, i shouldn't say that, but they did a very mass testify poll and i came out number one in leadership, number one on the economy, number one in jobs producing and i don't mean by number one, i mean like number one by many, many times and i am so intent on putting people back to work in this country. we have 93 million people that are not in the work force right now. 93 million. when they give up looking for a job they take them off the stats, they take them off the statistics. we have 93 million people. we have 50 million people between poverty levels and welfare and -- our country can

be great again. we have to put people back to work. all right. one or two more. >> do you think your children to the administration if you are to become president and secondly totally off subject but would you pardon scooter libby if you become president. >> okay. would i bring my children into the administration, i will tell you they are very capable. the answer is probably not. but having them in would be very good, they're very capable children. the second part i wouldn't bother answering, it's no longer pertinent. >> i know that you feel very confident with your running against right now, but kanye west -- >> i will never say bad about him. do you know why? because he loves trump. he loves trump. he goes around saying trump is my all time hero. he says it to everybody. so kanye west, i love him. now, maybe in a few years i will have to run against him, i don't know, so i will take that back. but he has been so nice to me. you people have sort of seen

because i have been a counter puncher, i only hit people when they hit me and kanye west has been so great i would never say bad about him because he says such nice things about me. [ inaudible question ] >> my supporters are really supporting me because i'm very competent, because they know that i'm not going to let china rip us off, i'm not going to let japan rip us off. japan is devaluing their yen, very hard for caterpillar and other companies to compete against kumatsu their big tractor maker and others. we are not going to let this happen anymore. you talk about a trade imbalance, they have in japan the biggest ships you have ever seen pouring cars into los angeles, pouring them in. i have never seen anything like it. we send them beef and they don't

even want it. it's going to end. and they are going to like us. in this building i have the largest bank in the world right up in these elevators, it's a bank from china. by far the biggest bank in the world. i get along great with china, i get along great with japan and mexico. i love the people. i love the people of mexico, i love the hispanics, i have thousands of hispanics right now working for me. over the years i have employed tens of thousands of hispanics, many from mexico. i have unbelievably great relationships n in the package that we gave you you will see there is a poll and i'm number one with hispanics. you saw that. number one with hispanics. look, for our country to be great we have to be able to make great deals. we are going to be great to the vets, we're going to be terrific, our military is going to be unbelievable. all of these things we're going to get rid of obamacare and come up with something that's much

better and much less expensive. we're going to repeal t it's going to be out. should have been out a long time ago, should have never happened. but we are going to take care of our country and we are going to bring back jobs and we are going to bring back wealth to the united states so we can afford to save social security which i will save without cuts. so that we can afford to do the kind of things that we have to do to make america great again. ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much and here is your -- here is your pledge. [ applause ] all right. that was donald trump signing his pledge of loyalty to the gop. the republican party. and then conducting a very wide ranging press conference. getting hit with all kinds of questions, everything from jeb bush, hillary clinton, many on the issue of illegal immigration, one even on scooter libby which donald trump decided he was not going to address at all. we have john harwood joining us in a second, melissa lee still

with us of course. melissa, a wide ranging -- okay. we are going to go back to donald trump. >> -- just remember something, when it's a bubble, it's a bubble, we can't be brought down by that bubble. they've done things that caused it. we can't be brought down by that bubble. thank you, everybody. thank you. thank you. [ applause ] all right. now i think, mel sarks we are done. i didn't hear that question, i don't think anybody could. >> i'm not sure what he's referring to. i presume he is talking about china in the context of his remarks. here we go ago. >> -- he is an amazing man. he is as you know, right -- >> thank you. >> speaker of the house of indonesia, he is here to see me. setia novant no one of the most powerful men and a great man and his whole group is here to see me today, we will do great things for the united states, is that correct? >> yes. >> do they like me in indonesia.

>> yes. thank you very much. >> speaker of the house in indonesia. thank you very much. >> apparently clinching the back of the speaker of the house in indonesia is a. what stood us to me was essentially by signing that pledge he is increasing the chance that is there is going to be a trump, the trump name, on the republican ticket whether it be at the top of the ticket or nnl two on the ticket. and number two is all the anti-china rhetoric, especially at a time when the markets have been reeling based on what is going on in client fashion it's interesting how he continued to ramp thaup. let's go to john harwood who is standing by at that press conference. john. >> i would just say, melissa, i would not bet very much money on trump being on the republican ticket, but we will see what happens. you saw donald trump there say that reince priebus said that the republican party was going to treat donald trump fairly. he said he had no intention of ripping up that pledge under different circumstances, i

didn't hear exactly a sherman like statement that under no circumstances could he get out of that pledge. i think most republicans will take it that way, that this is a conditional statement by trump, depending on his assessment at the time of how he is being treated by the republican party. on other issues he talked about jeb bush who had criticized him this morning on television and he continued his pattern of being very dismissive and saying he thought it was kind of sad to see what had happened to jeb bush who he called a low energy person to something he said that's gotten under jeb bush's skin. >> obviously melissa brought up the china comments. for me from the economics perspective, we are cnbc, were his jabs at japan, a country that we leave alone, we don't talk about japan very much, him implying that they're dumping vehicles on our money and all we're sending is steak -- >> i also thought was interesting was that japan was dee valuing its yen and the fed

is raising interest rates, our currency has gone up against the yen. it takes two to tango here. >> right. donald trump has got a specific message he wants to get out which he is going to continue getting out that china, japan, others are taking advantage of the united states. he is encouraging voters to think that those bad deals are the cause of their economic problems, of course, we're in the middle of negotiating a trans-pacific partnership and disagreements with japan over beef and autos are part of what's holding up a final agreement, but i think the details of the agreement itself are less important to donald trump than the larger message he wants to send that he repeated today. >> john harwood, john, thank you very much. okay. we are going to be right back after this. but your dell 2-in-1 laptop gives you the spunk for an unsanctioned selfie. that's that new gear feeling. all laptops on sale, save $230 on this dell 2-in-1.

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hello, everyone, i'm sue herrera and here is your cnbc news update at this hour. a south carolina prosecutor says that she will seek the death penalty for dylann roof who was charged with killing nine black church gears. roof also faces federal charges. prosecutors in those cases have not said whether they will

pursue the death penalty. people from both sides protesting as a federal judge orders a defiant kentucky clerk to jail after she refused to issue marriage license toss gay couples. judge david bunning says she will stay in jail until she complies with his order. >> jeb bush holding a town hall meeting at a new hampshire manufacturing company. he criticized donald trump calling his views pessimistic and praig on people's fears. presidential campaign tv ad spending so far is dwarfing totals so far at this point. 16 million sooirnd has been spent compared to only $2 million during the 2012 campaign. the top spenders outside groups backing ohio governor john kasich with $3.7 million. your cnbc news update. now let's go down to bab pisani.

>> we had a nice rally at the beginning, and it's faded a bit but we are coming back a bit true now. oil has moved in a 6% trading range and that's the culprit in the middle of the day. two to one advance to go declining stocks. the s&p 500 again nice open, held on throughout most of the day, faded after the european close and particularly after oil started moving to the down side. 1975 was the old high we are about 20 points off. take a look at oil. oil started to fade right after that european close and i think that was a major reason why we moved to the down side. looking at those market on close orders, guys, right now it looks very modest to the sell side no big impact so far at the close. back to you. >> all right, bob, thank you very much. if stocks bounce back in the weeks ahead which names are likely to lady us higher. larry mcdonald, dave see burring. are we going to see the growth oriented tech stocks lead us or

somebody else or no one? >> well, one thing, brian, we have $9 trillion of debt around the world that is dollar denominated, that's been issued in recent years and as the dollars move from 78 to 100 and now around 96 it's created a lot of systemic risk around the world, the weakness in china. it is a surprise in the third and fourth quarter could very easily be commodities and names that have been really beaten up that would benefit from a weaker dollar because net, net, net, i think the fed has to get that dollar contained to put out this global fire. >> all right, david, if assuming we do get a turn by the end of the year, we may not, but who do you look for for leadership? >> i think you are still going to be that concentrated group of the high growth names that we've seen lead the market continue to outperform. i think we're going to start to see some real structure, investors come in and really

getting a sieve when it comes down to these energy stocks which have been completely beat up. i look for a narrow group of technology names, the ones we talked b facebooks, amazons, googles, i mean, those names will continue to lead and do well. biotech large cap in particular will do well. i do think there's a lot of penitentiary up demand, a lot of money sitting in the sidelines waiting to gravitate into energy. i think that's going to occur, probably not much later in the year but when that occurs it will be fierce and that will catch up from a performance perspective. >> dafr and larry we will leave it there. thank you very much. as a reminder we do more trading nation on line every day, trading nation.cnbc.com. a short commercial break and then we are back right after this. want bladder leak underwear that moves like you do?

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right now the s&p 500 is trading just under 1960. where is it head frd here. ubs says 10% higher before the end of the year. let's bring in julian michaels he has a 22, 25 target on the s&p 500. some may say that's very bold, perhaps too bold. >> they said it was conservative at the end of the year. we take a view that there is not going to be a bear market. there has not been a bear market over the last 25 years without a recession and the economy is simply too strong now, whether you look at in terms of jobs, housing or confidence. >> not having a bear market is different than just not going up. >> we don't have to fall 20%, we could just stagnate for a while. >> it's entirely possible and our view here stis that what you're seeing is a bottoming

process and we expect the volatility to continue and investors have to get used to the volatility. the market rallies in the market, we don't want to get so excited, market tanks in the afternoon, we need to stay patient. >> i could make arguments as to why stocks would go down or go down. the question i would have is where are the buyers going to come from? in order to go up you need to have buying pressure, new money coming in. where is that going to come from? >> it's interesting because very largely this year people were buying into europe, they were buying into asia and global portfolio managers were underweight in the u.s. we think there's still more of that catch up play to be made. >> the only way new money is coming into the market is twofold, number one you have it under the mattress in cash somewhere or you sell something else to raise money to move over here. are they going to sell europe and asia to invest into the united states? >> it's largely been done. i think there is an element in this bottoming process where people are waiting for conditions to get better and the

money will come in. there is a very pronounced tendency for fourth quarters to be good because people do look ahead to the next year. where we see an earnings recovery that's going to drive the market higher. >> what would make you change your mind or cut your price target? >> economic deterioration. you know, something perhaps an exogenous event, but we frankly don't see that at this point. >> julian emanuel waiting patiently. thank you. >> my pleasure. >> coming up next, why the charts may say there's more down side ahead. more "power lunch" straight ahead.

markets are flatlining at this hour after we've gone through a tremendous period of volatility. what do the markets say about what's ahead? what are you seeing in the charts? there is some debate as to whether or not we should be retesting our lows, whether that be 1867 or october lows. >> i agree. that process started on tuesday. we saw the bigger pullback.

last tuesday we gave back some of this bounce. none of the reasons for the sell-off dissipated in the last couple of days to think everything is over, either from a technical or fundamental perspective. you have a huge downward force in momentum. heaviest in years. we did see brief signs of capitulation to the downside. i don't think that is nearly enough to suggest the worst is behind us or that -- let me see. this is a log chart. this is different than looking at a regular line chart. you can see this trend line actually was broken on this recent pullback. that is going back from 2009. that makes me think this is very important and a lot different than what we saw in 2011 or in

october last year. >> you made the point we want to see the s&p 500 go back to highs, most recent highs in order to be convinced that maybe we can turn this around? >> yeah. there are two levels to concentrate on. one is 1983 the other are the july lows. >> this gets a little temperamental. >> we need to exceed that level to believe the worst is behind us. it's merely a bounce with an ongoing decline. i think in general -- here is a ten-year. this is important to reiterate. really in the last few weeks, ten-year yields held up remarkably well. we haven't seen deet klein in yield for whatever reason.

>> some people are pointing to china, some point to parity funds. when you take a look at the markets and various components, sometimes we look at apple or some of these previous winners like facebook and netflix, they don't seem to be having strength in this market. does that concern you? >> it does. one point i would make that is very important is that a lot of this decline has been a stealth decline in energy, industrials and materials. you are seeing financials starting to turn down to the s&p. a little bit in health care. those are the market leaders. now if you see the market leaders join the ones pulling back, that gives me more of a concern. it confirms what the momentum has been telling us over the last year. it's been getting weaker and weaker. my target is down near 1820 last october lows below that. we can get to 1680, give up almost 1/3 of what we've seen

since 2011. one final thing, this year is similar to 1946 and '74. those two years the market was down over 6% in august. and down greater than 2% first day of september. this market is similar in that regard. >> quite a different picture from strategists we had. >> i'm worried about the fact a fellow hokey is wearing uva colored ties. that's the breaking news. that's the headline. >> the season hasn't started yet. >> i'll give you $20. cut that tie in half. go hokies. >> stocks pushing off session lows. nasdaq in the red. don't cut his tie. we'll be back.

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this could be 15% less. this opens a pathway for more drugs coming on the market. >> thank you. tonight on "fast money" at 5:00, fang stocks, are they buys right now? "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm simon hobbs. good afternoon. >> we'll see if this market will hold up in the final hour of trade. dow up 50. remember this morning after the european central bank, futures were up 100. yesterday we saw the rally fading today. we rallied into the close. >> we'll hear from jeremy sigel about the number he is watching for tomorrow's jobs report.