>> i think time will tell whether or not we have a full-blown asian currency crisis. if we don't, stocks will make a new high before the end of the year. >> there is amid all of this gloomy and negative sentiment still people out there like lee cooperman who think you'll have a great run to the end of the year. have a great holiday weekend. "power lunch" begins right now. stocks are near session lows. thedown right now is down 297 points. the nasdaq and s&p also down more than 1%. keep in mind, folks, this part of the day has been the most volatile part of trading during this rough patch for the markets. hi, everybody. i'm brian sullivan in for tyler mathisen today. >> mandy drury, live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. hello there. i'll get back to the markets in just a minute's time but first we want to get to the jobs report from this morning and the impact that could have on the fed decision which is due out in just 13 days. >> senior economics reporter steve leisman is here now with more on that jobs number.

how this all plays into the federal reserve. i like jim's point there in halftime report which is if they don't move in september, we're goi -- in december, we're going to drive ourselves in sane. >> this is right in the sweet spot of the fed's full employment number. maybe that number is going to come down but right now they're between 5% and 5.2%. over to the 173, that's the payroll number for august. that's below the 220,000 that was forecast but several economists, many economists, point out august has been consistently revised higher. the most revised month of the past five years. . you by 75,000. we also have positive revisions and a wage number that was a little bit higher than expectations. some of the calls made ex-post after the number came out. wells fargo, ubs, bank of tokyo, all affirming or saying they are in the september camp for

federal reserve raising rates. with. september, there are good names over here in december. all these in the december camp. quickly some of the arguments. reasons to go. at full employment that 5.1% is where the fed has no gain from waiting unless you take it away for many months that quarter point will hang over and drive us crazy over the next several months and also weigh on the market. u.s. economics strength, we did 3.7% second in the second quarter, we're at 2%, 2.5% in the third quarter. market volatility and global economic weakness. i would say i still go with the reasons to go, i'm in that camp as well. >> nonetheless it certainly feels like there are plenty of people out there who feel we're still sitting on the fence or didn't push us in either direction definitively so the uncertainty continues.

stocks are absolutely tanking at this hour, we're sinking further to session lows. we're down by 313 points right now. bob pisani joins me here on the new york floor. it feels like rather than any major selling pressure we are just suffering from lack of buying interest, a, going into the long weekend, b, ahead of the re-opening of the chinese markets and a massive week of chinese economic data. >> the problem all week is there has not been massive volume during the day for most of the week, yet there's been no buying interest. we had some problems today even before the jobs report. we were weak overnight because japan was weak. now china's closed. no selling pressure, but no buying interest. the market internals, believe it or not the bottom is only average today. not a lot of heavy selling pressure. 4:1 declining to advancing here. look at the s&p futures. overnight session we were

trending all the way down. we were essentially challenging the lows from the day. that's right after we opened around 9:30 eastern. sectors, this is not a day for stocks. this is just taking down exposure. the whole market is down 1.3%. i'm a little concerned with the financials. again underperforming. this has happened a couple of times this week. some of the big financial names, your usual big names are below the market again here. now i talked about the fact that they are expecting big things from financials in the third quarter earnings is supposed to be up. this looks like they're trying to anticipate -- they may not be as strong as people were anticipating. of course not surprisingly we see the merchant markets weak as well over a lot of uncertainty about china. you and i have talked about the fact that there is a lot of economic data in china next week. brazil, south africa, malaysia, all to the down side. >> one quick question. you've been talking about the range. compared to the last couple of weeks because this week is a

narrower range. >> the last couple days it's been a narrower range. today we may challenge that with being down 300 points. people feel monday, china u.s., u.s. not open. this may be why we are seeing the downside. a news alert now. dominic chu? >> if it's friday, it must be what's happening here with baker-hughes all rig counts. we have rig counts on the u.s. oil side of things down 13 from the same time a week ago. down 13 rigs from last week. that brings the total to 662. just to grive some perspective, this same time last year we had 1,061 more rigs. again, we are down 13 rigs to 662 u.s. oil rigs. that's down 1,061 rigs from the same time last year. again this breaks a short-term winning streak in terms of rig count gains. this time around down 13 is the number here. we're watching oil as a result.

>> a bit surprising oil not reacting positively, losing a bit down 30 cents right now. by the way, the dow now down 308 points. oil the big story, based on that rig count, let's go down to jackie deangelis at the nymex. >> good afternoon, brian. prices are down 33 cents but it was remarkable when those rig count numbers came out, we were trading around $46 and we rebounded about 60 cents on the session. our session low today, $45.76. still watching that number at this point as we are seeing this downside momentum. but given the action that we've seen the last few days in terms of equities and oil moving together, i would expect with the dow down this much, for oil prices to be down more than they are. so those rig counts definitely made a difference here adding a little support even though we are in negative territory. also interesting is that the dollar index is now negative and oil really hasn't moved much higher on that as well. i done want to mention gas prices, $2.42, the lowest gas

prices on labor day heading into a holiday weekend. down from $2.64 just a month ago. if oil prices go lower, so do gas prices. but if crude goes up, watch out. that's good news for all those about to hit the road, though low gas prices. now over to the nasdaq in times square where bertha coombs has been following the movers there. >> we're watching here the nasdaq and large-cap nasdaq 100, both at session lows. but even as we look at them down for the week about 3%, they're still up 9% from last week's low. we haven't really challenged and gone through yet. many of the usual suspects though today are driving us lower, apple once again sliding back to tuesday's lows. though not on tremendous volume. that's one of the things we're seeing today ahead of the holiday. not so much volume so not so much conviction. netflix on the other hand down for a record six straight

session. traders say this stock just seems to be down because it's being used as a source of funds. a lot of folks are selling to use that to buy other things or maybe just to have some cash on the sidelines. netflix stock is still up 100% for the year. blackberry, one of the few stocks bucking the trend, having bought its archrival good technology for just under $500 million. back to you. >> thank you very much, bertha coombs. headlines at this hour -- nissan shares are taking a hit. the japanese automaker recalling 300,000 cars to fix a console issue that may catch the driver's shoe and delay the transition from the accelerator to the brake pedal. no deaths have been tied to the problem, but on a down day the shares are off by 2.3%. facebook meantime turning up the heat on ebay. the "wall street journal" says the social media giant is making it easier for users to buy, sell and trade items through a facebook group. and a service announcement to all of our listeners and viewers.

tune in to kwauk asquawk alley. warren buffett. make it a date, tuesday, 11:30 a.m. eastern on cnbc. stocks continue to slide. the dow is down 300 points following this morning's jobs report. there are of course fed fears out there. you've got china slowing down. many emerging markets are now officially in recession. dollar is losing steam as well. is boring old cash or a cash equivalent your best financial bet right now? joining us now, bill gross, janus global unconstrained bond fund portfolio manager. a billion things to talk about. bill, your take on the jobs number and the fed and the xh economy. hi. >> the jobs number was mediocre but decent and probably in terms of it janet yellen and the fed, sufficient for either september or december.

it's probably on the line. the u.s. economy is chugging along at 2%. that's decent. that's not great but it's allowing for corporate profits to stay at least at flat levels going forward. the u.s. economy isn't bad but there are significant global imbalances as you just talked about with china and emerging markets and their currencies which in many cases are dollar denominated and could lead to problems down the line. and ultimately, last point before i break here, 0% interest rates have for a long time exerted a negative influence on the economy. a positive influence though on financial markets, but they destroyed business models. insurance companies and pension funds, they're all in trouble because they can't earn that 7% or 8% which they've basically

assumed in terms of their liabilities. interest rates are close to 0%. so we have a very positive monetary policy that has stimulated asset markets, but they are now impinging on the ability of the economy to grow in reteral terms. >> this morning, fed chair alan greenspan was on squawks box. this morning he noted, let's stop worrying about a quarter point rate hike if we get one. because we've got entitlement spend something which is now three times more than it was 40 years ago. we have all these other monetary and fiscal challenges and that we're too obsessed about a potential negative outcome from a quarter point rate hike. would you agree with that? >> yeah, i think he's right. i think the economy can stand a 2% nominal policy rate ultimately but i'm not sure that the risk markets can. at the moment the forward yield curve in the u.s. is forecasting

a 1.25% policy rate two years from now. that pricing significantly impacts stock prices. high-yield bond spreads, arbitrage possibilities and real estate and private equity markets. so in my opinion, the fed and other central bankers went too low and for too long, and now it will be very difficult to significantly reverse course. but interest rates at 2% probably wouldn't hurpt tt the economy, they would hurt financial markets. >> fed, do you think the fed might have missed its window to hike, and if december they hike and things in the global world slow down and things get a little rocky in the markets, is there any danger they might have to reverse course, like some banks around the world have done, ie hike, and then pull that back again? >> well, they might reverse course in terms of quantitative easing. reversing course in terms of

lowering the policy rate back down to close to zero i think would be impractical. but more quantitative easing is what mario draghi is suggesting. whatever it takes. you doubled up on that, at least conceptually, a few days ago. so central bankers are of the persuasion that the more money that's printed or the more assets that are purchased by central banks, the better. i just simply think that monetary policy has run into a dead end here because the printing of money doesn't necessarily lead to real economic growth. we've seen that in japan for ten years. we're seeing that basically in euro land. we only saw 2% real growth in the u.s. for the past five years. quantitative easing is not a magic elixer, and i think the real magic comes from fiscal policy, which as we know in the united states, because of the

differences between democrats and republicans and they're controlled by a republican congress, and certainly in europe where the persuasion is that fiscal austerity is the way to go as opposed to fiscal spending. but governments have to spend money as opposed to print it. >> the weird thing about this volatile time, bill, in the last couple of weeks, normally stocks sell off and other asset classes, maybe treasury or gold go up. the dow, gold, treasuries -- everything i am looking at on my screens is down this quarter. people are selling, they're raising money. where is that money going? where should that money be going? >> well, i think the money must be going to ka shacash to some and back to sovereign nations such as china. it is difficult to prove, brian, but as china tries to support its currency, basically they use

that for reserves and are forced to sell treasuries. i can't prove this, but in looking at the tape, it's suspicious that, as you mention, the stocks go down. bonds don't go up very much. they are today. but perhaps there could be some selling by the chinese in terms of supporting their currency, and it could be upwards of $100 billion to $200 billion. no one knows, but that's one of the problems when you get these currency end belts, that ultimately as they're unwound, or in this case supports, they lead to distortions in bond and equity markets. >> bill, we got to leave it there, unfortunately. could go all day but hopefully we get you on again very soon. have a great, long weekend. we've got someone on the show later on who just went to all cash. 100%. yesterday. we'll talk to him about why he's

doing that. investors are gearing you were up for rake heights ahead. what will the fed's move meanho, re-fi rate? >> who hates uncertainty? mortgage lenders. we'll tell you how rates are reacting on this all-important jobs day next on "power lunch." hey! hi! our cloud - it's a platform based on awesome-ization! really? can it keep our data where it needs to be no matter what country we're in? integrate with our systems to help keep transactions secure? combine customer data with likes, tweets, the weather, to predict trends? that would be awesome. tote? now there's a cloud that understands business. now there's the ibm cloud.

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is. welcome back to "power lunch." let's call your attention to what's happening with the markets right now because we are in a sell-off quarterba off, th rather muted. the dow near the lows of the day's trading session so far. s&p down by 34 point, down by 1.33%, down 62 points. among the sectors broader industry groups some people are focusing on today, airline stocks overall. crude oil prices are down. they're standing up airlines on this down day. some are in the green likely due to lower fuel costs. the xal ticker up 1%. if you look at the other airlines, all up fractionally holding on to some of those gains but a mixed picture developing here for the

airlines. it was stronger much so earlier today and now losing some momentum into this afternoon's trade. >> thank you very much, dominic chu. all the talk of raising rates putting the focus on housing and mortgage rates. diana olick is live in washington. hi, diana. >> reporter: hi, mandy. i was getting all these alerts this morning that rates could rise on the jobs number and the stock sell-off. but things settled out since then. lenders don't move rates as quickly as the stock market moves, not by far in any case. the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed has been hovering around 4%. still historically low but we did see the huge spike in mortgage refinance applications last week when rates moved just .8% lower. we're not far from it but that could change this afternoon simply due to the timing. lenders put out their rate sheets mid morning which was right as bond markets were selling off. that would have resulted in

their rates being a bit higher than yesterday. but since then, bond markets have bounced back. some lenders in just the last hour have started making rate adjustments lower. so on that note, borrowers though are much more keyed in to these very tiny rate moves. why? because a lot more people now have a lot more home equity to tap in to using a re-fi. millions coming up from underwater. we'll talk about that in the next hour of "power lunch." back to you. >> diana, thank you very much. nearly 100,000 oil and gas jobs have been lost since the beginning of the year and that number is likely to go higher. this week conocophillips announced a big round of layoffs. so what is today's jobs number saying about the health of the oil economy? morgan brennan has some clues. >> its a he n's not good. it is no longer oil and gas jobs getting cut. the commodity crunch is rippling out to other industries. more on that when "power lunch" returns.

welcome back to "power lunch." let's check out what's happening first of all with the markets. the dow is down by 300 points so far near its lows of the day. consumer discretionary stocks the broader sector in the s&p, but still down by over 1%. among names helping at least prop things up relatively speaking for consumer discretionary, shares of dollar tree as well as l brands and dollar general as well. >> i like the way you always find the bright spots for us in

this generally down market. the dow currently down at session lows, 332 points to the negative. let's see how the bond market's reacting to the latest jobs report. rick santelli. >> the great old pictures with bob hope and bing crosby. but "the road to normalization" holds very little for stock holdings. look at the yield curve, 10s minus 2s flattening. they are looking for some fed activities. 30s versus 5s. flattening on what was perceived as weak data. stock market continues to go down. look at a 30-year. that tells you the whole range. we failed to get up to 3% but 2.75% on the bottom of that chart is where we settled last year. that's holding. when it comes to foreign exchange, it is all about the euro for the last couple of weeks. you see on this two-week chart, they definite. ly pull the rug out from underneath it.

dollar index somewhat back in the middle of the range and we're all idling to see how the calm ever this weekend plays out next week as we get closer to the fed. well, stocks are down right now, the dow down 330 points. the best performer on the dow is apple. it is "only" down 1.4%. there's your best. the worst, goldman sachs and jpmorgan chase. the dow down 8% in just one month. it is now down 12% from its high, 10% for the year. but we found one stock that could help you ride out this turmoil. it is up this week, this month and more than 50% this year. it is not up today. it is not a tech or momentum. what is it? what are we talking about? stick around to find out.

i'm sharon epperson and here's your cnbc news update at this hour. the funeral is under way in houston for slain sheriff deputy

darren goforth. he was gunned down while fueling his patrol car and a man with a history of mental illness has been charged. a man died after being stuck on a train for two days with 500 other migrants. he was among 350 migrants who had earlier broken through a riot police barricade while trying to get to austria. no word on the cause of death. president obama meeting with saudi arabia's king salmon in the oval office today. the leaders tackling the need to restore a functioning government in yemen and the merits of the u.s.-iran nuclear deal. last night upon arriving the saudi king was greeted by a massive fleet of limos. it is the saudi king's first visit to the u.s. since ascending the throne in january. that's our cnbc news update at this hour. >> the number of those limos, sharon. if oil continues to fall, they

might have to downgrade to an e-class from the s-class mercedes. >> amazing. >> if you think saudi arabia's struggling, not at the top. there you go. sharon epperson, have a great weekend. >> you, too. gold prices getting ready to close. jackie deangelis also talking gold down at the nymex. she probably rolled up in a toyota corolla. >> good afternoon to you, brian. >> i meant that compliment airlicomplimentarily. >> gold prices no the really getting a bid today. i was a little bit surprised because i thought the jobs report this morning would give gold a little lift. we are settling over $1,120 but traders told me the fact that a september rate hike probably won't happy, that's already been factored into the gold prices. that's why we're staying over $1,100 industrial metals, silver, copper, is down because the equity market is down and also some position squaring going into the weekend.

back to you. get another "market flash." >> the year's best performing stock in the s&p 500 still netflix. though it is tracking for its sixth straight day of losses, the shares are down by 3%, today below the $100 a share mark right now. $98.29. a reported entry into video streaming by apple possibly cited as maybe a trigger for some of the weakness as of late. citron research said earlier this week that netflix was perhaps not as valuable as the price would indicate. they also put a much lower price target on those shares. on balance though, remember, netflix still very much the best performing stock in the s&p though some negativity over the last couple of weeks. one of the other stocks that's done very well recently and also year to date. the markets right now are currently sitting to the downside by 317 points for the dow. the s&p is down by 34 points or about 1.8%. let's get back to bob pisani here on the floor of the stock exchange.

looking at these indices, yeah, they're down so far this week but the banking sector is down even more than that. >> take a look here, review the s&p for the day. essentially at the lows. we had problems going in. japan was notably weak but just off the lows for the day. we aren't going to show you stocks because there's no point. the overall market is down about 1.82%. i'm concerned about those financials. if you look at the banks this week, we're down 3.5% on the s&p. city corp., bank of america, all worse than the overall market. i think what's going on is the analysts are a little concerned about the earnings picture. we expected earnings to really help out on the s&p for the third quarter but i think those jobs numbers are probably going to have to come down because we're not seeing the increase in rates to help them out. we'll hear comments in the next few weeks from some of the big ceos, including wells fargo. i want to see how the long growth is going and maybe through that great loan growth

they'll make improving numbers. >> have to revise those estimates lower then potentially. thank you very much, bob pisani. meantime, some big-cap companies like merck, walmart or take your pick have been taking a big-time beating lately. but given that none of these massive companies are at any risk of going away, are they due for a rebound? deidra has been crunching the numbers and joins us live from vancouver. >> a few corn erers of the mark have been spared. you mentioned a few blue-chip names but history may suggest that a few of them are falling too far, too fast and may be due for a bounceback. we found merck, walmart and johnson & johnson are the most compelling dow rebound bets based on historical day ba. pharmaceutical giant merck has fallen this far below its 50-day

moving average 52 times in the past. 49 out of those 52 instances, that's 94% of the time, it has moved higher in the short term. five days later the stock is up an average of 2.1% and 20 days later it's moved higher by more than 4% on average. another name that may be due for a bounce is johnson & johnson. in the same scenario when it has been this far below its 50-day moving average, it's next moved higherle 3% of the time. one more, walmart. shares have been absolutely clobbered this year, down more than 25% but it has moved higher 85% of the time from the current beaten-down position. just because it has happened before doesn't mean it will happen again but these stocks do suggest the recovery could be in store in the short term. back over to you. >> thank you. a major sell-off right now. stocks are currently sitting near session lows. joining us, matt tuttle, chief investment officer at tuttle technical management, bruce mccain, chief investment

strategist at key private bank. gentlemen, thank you for joining us. matt, yesterday you moved 100% to cash. is it really necessary to be that defensive? >> for us, the way we manage money, it is. we're looking hat a couple of different things. first off the momentum in the market is negative and with the little bit of the rally we had earlier in the week, all the markets we look at moved in to overbought stat tis. it's the lowest probability time to be invested so we wanted to be 100% cash. >> i can ask you in light of what happened today with the jobs report, do we even care from where you sit whether the fed hikes or not? >> right now the way we're sitting, i care a little bit because i own some treasuries and i want those treasuries to keep going up. but sitting in the rest of it in cash, no, it doesn't matter to me right now. >> bruce, do you care what the fed does at this stage? >> i think we're looking beyond that. where matt might buy, we don't see any strong probability of any economic downturn --

>> bruce, just hold that thought. we have a news alert. >> this is on the ipo front. we have mcgraw-hill education. the education, textbooks, the learning platform company that was bought by private equity giant apollo has filed paperwork to go public. ipo paperwork filed by mcgraw-hill education. right now the standard place holder $100 million side is used there. we do not know a listing of underwriters however it had been earlier this week by reuters that credit suisse and morgan stanley were being tapped to lead that offering. that's citing sores familiar over at reuters but still mcgraw-hill education files paperwork to go public. no indication yet on total size or underwriters but still another interesting ipo prospect given the market turmoil. >> as you say we await further details. thank you for that. bruce, apologies for breaking in there. but please, complete your

thoughts on what you think is going to happen with the markets over the next one to three months. which i understand you feel like has to sort of go through this corrective process a little further. >> because we don't see a strong probability of a recession, even if the fed does raise rates, we think this will be a correction and not a bear market. for that reason we would use this as an opportunity to add to positions, particularly in some of those strong growth stocks that tend to correct the hardest during a sell-off like this. so we see a number of opportunities and are encouraging people to add cash where they have it. >> which opportunities are you talking about specifically? bruce? >> you look at names like celgene. people are concerned the biotechs are rolling over, and yet you still see strong product growth and revenue growth for the firm. a name like disney that has a good outlook with its new franchises and a lot of the work that they've been doing consistently. a good, solid persistent long-term grower, and yet many of these stocks are down

relative to where they were and offer good buying opportunities. >> matt, you were telling us how you were in treasuries. now you're cash as well. so what are you waiting for in terms of the corrective process? do you feel like this is potentially the end of a bull market or just a correction in an ongoing bull market? >> we don't see this as the end of a bull market yet. we think that's 2016, 2017. we think it is a correction. but we also think we're going to retest the lows that we made last week so we're kind of waiting for that before we buy back in. we think that's going to be a great opportunity. >> what specifically are you waiting to buy? >> we look -- we're not looking as much as individual stocks. we are looking at indexes. we'd be looking to get maybe into small caps, small-cap etfs, maybe back into the s&p 500. maybe back into the nasdaq. >> bruce, final word to you. is the u.s. still the place to be? >> we think it's 1 of 2 important places to be.

however, with the stronger dollar and with the improvements that we're seeing in some of the larger developed markets of the world, we are starting to diversify our overweight positions into some of those foreign markets as well. >> thank you very much to bruce. thank you very much to matt as well for joining us here on a very interesting day. eamon javers has breaking news. >> hi, mandy. we are getting a readout from the treasury department of treasury secretary jack lew's meeting with the chinese finance minister at the g-20 in ankara, turkey a little while ago. treasury providing us some details of what was said in that meeting. couple of key points -- treasury saying that secretary lew emphasized the importance of china accelerating its transition from export led growth to grater reliance on chinese households and underscored the importance. china carefully communicating its policy intentions and actions to financial markets. obviously a reference to what we've seen here in the united states over the past couple of

weeks. also they're saying secretary lew noted that it was important for china to signal that it will allow market pressures to allow the rmb. you as we-- up as well as down. you don't get the chinese perspective on it so nowhere do we know what the china finance minister's response was. new data out on the health of the housing market and why it might be good news for the overall economy. that's ahead. plus -- it is the 20th anniversary of "squawk box." celebration kicks off next week. some of the smartest people in business offer up an exclusive look into the future. "squawk box" starting at 6:00 a.m. eastern time.

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decline in same-store sales for august across its brands but old navy sales rose by 6%. cooper companies beating expectations but issuing a weaker than expected forecast right now. the stock is off by 5.4%. electronic payment devicemaker verifone shares up by 1.7%. stocks are taking a dive. we're down about 300 points on the dow. it all comes back on the back of the august jobs number. the unemployment rate did drop to 5.1%. 103,000 jobs were created last month slightly missing the headline number. keith boykin, former special assistant to president clinton. ron christy, founder of christy strategies. i put out a piece where i said

the jobs number i thought was very, very solid. there is still some work to be done though. if you're going to fix one thing, what would it be? what do we got to fix? >> i think we have to fix the issue of wages. if you look from 1973 to the present, wages have actually only increased about i think 6% or 9%. can't remember the exact number. worker productivity has increased by 172%. there's a dramatic disconnect between workers actually doing more and benefiting in terms of the economy and the average every day person but we are still doing well in terms of where we were from where we started just a few years ago in the recession. we added now i think we've had 66 consecutive months of private sector job growth. that's some positive development that will help average every day workers. >> ron, you don't believe it was a very good jobs report. how come? >> i don't. when you look at the stats when you sort of delve into this, we still have one of the worst

labor work force participation. 6.5 million people are taking part-time jobs and still want full-time jobs. 93 million americans are still out of the work force. african-american unemployment rate is up compared to whites. there are a lot of people still looking for jobs who can't find them. there are far too. people who are out of work and i think the economy is still rel tichl soft right now. >> you bring you the labor force participation rate because it is one thing bears point to. we're at the lowest labor force rate since 1977. yes. but we are still well higher than the '50s, '60s and most of the '70s. inargue that child car costs are so doggone expensive that people are dropping out of the workforce because it doesn't pay to work after all the costs. >> i think that's an interesting

hypothesis but i would skew more towards the fact that frankly, we have 2.2 million people who have just said they're dropping out of the labor -- >> what are they doing then? if those people are not working, what are they doing? >> i think that points to the 6.5 million people who are taking part-time jobs who want full-time employment. i think you are finding a lot of people who are taking jobs that they don't want to take trying to cobble together a living. i think it also goes to your point and keith's point that wages have been relatively stagnant and folks cannot hang on in this economy with wage growth being flat as it is. >> keith, give us your take on how we get wage growth up. i've argued that america has to decide what it wants to be. we can be a nation of cheap crap -- i'm sorry to say that, where we make cheap stuff and everything's about sales and discounts. but you aren't going to pay a manufacturing worker any good money if they're producing things that have no value.

how do we change the way we think about making stuff so we can pay people more? >> i don't know if it is just changing the way we think about stuff. from the beginning we've actually been very productive in terms of worker productivity over the past 40 years but we have to do something about income\s, we have to address the fact that ceos are making 300 times the wages their average workers are making. we have to do something about minimum wage and help the labor unions actually. i know it is not popular to say but we have to do something in order to strengthen the hands of the bargainers. >> but keith, you know this. how can they possibly raise wages -- i understand your argument about the ceo. that's one or two people. in general, when you have avenue got basically americans who -- we don't want to pay for anything. why would we pay for someone to make stuff if we don't want to pay to buy it? >> the mr. emis you look at the economy over the past few years. the wealthy have done very well. the stock market despite the

market volatility in the past month or so has been on a tear. we've doubled the dow over the course of the past seven or eight years. if you look at the way the corporate ceos are being paid and corporate profits, those are all doing well as well relatively speaking. the problem is it hasn't trickled down to the average worker. now yes, we've had 13 million new jobs that have been created over the past six years or so. yes, we have unemployment rate down to seven or eight-year low. but that's not enough. in order to do more, it is going to require i think both fiscal and monetary policy. from the fiscal side we're going to have to have democrats and republicans come together and agree that we think it is important to raise wages, to create a jobs bill. >> i agree with a lot of what you're saying except ron, why are we looking for the government to raise wages? with the exception of the government worker, the government should have no business in raising wages. >> i'm not saying government should be raising wages. i'm saying the government has a responsibility through fiscal policy to create the environment

that will enable wages to rise. >> ron, last word to you, please. >> government needs to get out of the way as it relates to job creation. if you look at what's going on with the obama administration, the regulations, the crippling effect on the corporate sector, to keith's point of how ceos are making aulg thing all this mon\ ridiculous. these corporations and these companies are responsible to their stockholders, earners of the company, the ones that own it. to suggest that ceos should be docked in their pay -- >> i didn't say that. but it is important to understand corporations exist to make money, not create jobs. when corporations do well they think that's going to automatically trickle down to the workers and that's not the case. you have to create economic incentives for that to happen. >> on that, my friend, i think you and i agree.

>> keith and ron, a good discussion. i hope i didn't take it too far in one direction. i appreciate it though, guys. have a great weekend. stocks are still squarely in the red with the dow holding on to its triple-digit loss. down by 300 points exactly. all ten s&p sectors are lower with materials, financials and telecom leading the decline. dow utilities hitting a 52-week low. we're all over this market and the oil close is coming up in the middle of "power lunch." do not go away. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve.

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office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. there is one stock that's managed to withstand the recent sell-off. take a look at martin marietta materials. it's up in the past one month. up 50% year to date and it's even up very nicely over the past week. eric just raise his estimates on mlm. how come this stock is so

comparatively impervious to all the recent market volatility. >> couple things going on. they're seeing an increase in construction spending. the july data that came out earlier this week showed construction spending up 13% year on year. the best reading of the year. in a fairly defensive industry, it is no import threat. pure u.s. exposure. there's a lot of tailwinds going in their favor. >> texas, it is the largest producer in texas so we haven't seen much negative impact from low oil there? we have. but if you think about the state, it's carved up in several regions. west texas has seen a decline because of lower oil prices and cement volumes in oil well

related see meant industries are down over 40%. for martin marietta, their geographic mix is dallas, houston, san antonio-austin. they really haven't been touched in those geographies by declining oil prices. not to mention cement pricing in texas is up close to 10% so far this year. they've got very strong pricing power as well. i think you'll see new investors come in the stock later this fall if you get a multi-year highway bill passed. that will provide long-term visibility to the states. so far this year with highway spending up 8% the states have been doing a very strong job of tapping into alternative funding mechanisms without the help of the federal government. >> thank you for joining us today. martin marietta, the third-best performer in the s&p 500 so far this year. i think only netflix and amazon are higher.

but they've been a little bit sort of pushed around in the tumble of the markets recently. >> thank you, very much. have a wonderful long weekend. see you on tuesday. it is 2:00 now on wall street, 11:00 a.m. in seattle. stocks solidly in the red ready to wrap up another week to forget. dow, nasdaq and s&p all down this week. oil is lower, a bit surprisingly, 10-year treasury yield is not spiking either given all that's gone on. it is down fractionally but buyers aren't coming into treasuries is the point. all of this on the heels of this morning's jobs number showing a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%. though the job growth number did miss the consensus headline. joining us now, a murderer's row of irnt electrici of intellect.

larry kudlow, ron insana and steve leisman. >> this is a nobel prize winning crowd. not you, brian. >> larry, the job number, 173,000. i know it missed the headline estimate. but 60-some months of job growth. >> i think it is mediocre number. by the way, 37,000 came from government. private jobs only 140,000-some. very mediocre. participation rates are still very low. depending on how you calculate it, you could be 6 million jobs short of the long-term line. could be as much as 12 million jobs short. it is better than nothing, i agree. you're rising into a modest recovery. i'll talk about the fed in a minute when we get into all that stuff. but it ain't nothing to write home about. >> i called this a more solid

jobs number only because we did see the revision was up from last month, 30,000. we have seen the number of discouraged workers go down. you're not impressed. >> i'm just saying, we are short jobs and there are too many people left in the labor force. >> where is the dislocation? >> i don't know that i necessarily know the answer to that. there seems to be a split. i think government assistance programs are keeping a lot of people out of the labor force. we need a lot of reform of these means tested entitlements. i know that's a different subject but we're paying people not to work. incentive structure not to work. >> the reality is if you're not working you're living somehow. you are going on -- >> well, some people. >> you get my point. we can always take the internet side -- there's always people that are not doing well.

we get that. >> look, this has been a 2% to 2.5% recovery. that's a lousy number. coming from a deep recession, that's an even louzier nusier n. i think the reason why the jobs thing has not panned out nearly the way it should be is because we have had relatively slow growth and we need to make changes in our economic policy. >> bottom line, steve, you think it changes the fed? do they raise rates september 17th? >> i think this certainly is a number that allows the fed to go, if that's what they want to do. there is a lot of arguments to go. among them is the idea that waiting doesn't get them anything. it's a really sort of -- there's two different dimensions to approaches from -- i think one dimension is it is very hard to 5.1% unemployment rate to argue we should be at 0%. same time with the global economies and inflation rate, hard to argue we should be raising rates. one way they split the difference of those two dimensions is say, you know what? we're going to do this hike and wait for a little while.

i don't think there's anything wrong with that. i tell you one other reason before my colleague ron insana refutes my ideas is that, operationally, the fed hasn't had to hit a target rate in a very long time. mechanics of this in a world awash in $4 trillion of excess reserves is very difficult and complicated. might be time to dust the cobwebs off that machinery. >> "financial times" put out a really interesting list of problems in the global economy today. china's collapsed. currencies around the world particularly in emerging markets have fallen from 20% to 50% against the u.s. dollar. a rate hike would exacerbate that. capital flows out of emerging markets total almost $8 trillion. a rate hike would exacerbate that. china has seen capital flows of $8 trillion. >> not a single u.s. reason there, i would point out. that's not in the fed's mandate unless it blows back on the u.s. >> it does because the dollar goes up --

>> how much does it go up? >> i read the piece. i agreed with everything they said except for their conclusion because i wonder if those moves are happening because we think the fed is going to raise rates, not that they would get worse. this is the rate hike move we're seeing but it is just in advance. >> they also added that global trade is slowing. u.s. exports are slowing. a stronger dollar would exacerbate that -- >> i have a solution. i have -- i don't want them to go. >> you don't. >> look, commodity indexes are falling. treasury break-even inflation spreads are narrowing. the long-term rate has actually been coming down. profits are flattening. there isn't going to be any great second-half economic growth snapback. ron is right about the rest of the world's economy. it is really lousy. chip's getti china's getting worse and there is no telling how much worse that is going to be. i heard you and i heard fischer. there is an argument here that

i'm going to call the fed man hoodment argument -- in deference to miss yellen it is the fed's womanhood argument. we can't have interest rates zero forever. if you want to raise rates, here's my plan. one-eighth and done. one-eighth and done. >> not happening! not happening! >> i started this two. months ago -- >> i started this two months ago, i tweeted it again today. because really, guys like us who have been around since the civil war remember, in the 1980s, volcker and greenspan used to use a thumb time. if you want to get with the womanhood argument and do something to please the steve leismans of the world -- by the way, all my concerned republicans agree with you. i'm the only one that's a dove on the fed. >> i want to make one point.

>> an eighth and done and that's it. >> something i proposed many months ago is raise the floor, leave the ceiling intact. then if the markets handle it well, raise are the ceiling. >> hold on, hold on. i love this mechanical argument about how to raise rates. >> i'm not interesting it. >> i think four people out there listening are still interested. >> i don't think people care about the mechanics. i think they care about the impact to what's going to happen to their 401(k) or their job. >> 401(k) is not going to be affected by a quarter-point rate hike. >> bingo. bingo. >> not immediately. but brian -- >> maybe this is it. >> it either raises rates or removes the quarter point as a possibility for the next several months because right now, that quarter point hangs over the market as if it's there. you either need to step up or step out. >> if i had my druthers, given

the fact that there is no inflation, either the reported indexes or the market price index, i would say then don't. don't do anything right now. and the government should cut the corporate tax rate. but if you hawks, if all you guys who want to defend the fed's manhood -- >> is he now the hawk? >> he's the hawk. i'm given an eighth of a point. that's it. one-eighth and done. that's it, i don't want to hear any more about it until i see commodity indexes go up or not. >> i call the fed pigeons. they're walking around in circles, not doing much of anything. kind of getting in the way. i think the point is the fed into edz fed needs to do something. >> i don't know about that. nobody knows what's going to happen. raise the frickin' rate and move on. >> can you say that on cable? >> here's the thing i think. it's not so much to get them out of the way. i think they should at this juncture be singing from the same hymn book, to put it in a

different way. look, we're getting confusing statements. it was just a month and a half ago that stanley fischer said inflation is too low. two weeks before that said we're going to raise rates this year. we are getting conflicting signals from the fed. today's data certainly don't help clear up with the fed -- >> one of my problems here is, the fed has no rules. there's no clarity in their message. paul volcker gave a great speech about this a while back where he said isn't it time to return to a rules-based policy with international cooperation. and he was right. >> i want ton comment on that. every analysis of paul volcker showed he followed no rules. there is no analysis that says volcker followed a rule. >> he was a commodity price rule guy and he was a gold guy. but look, there is no inflation! therefore, they should do nothing. >> unless you're talking about, larry, couple things. my point, you reference -- this

brings us back perfectly to the beginning because you referenced the labor force participation rate. everybody that hates the economy right now says it is low. >> i don't hate the economy. >> back to 1977 lows. we're still where we were above in the '50s, '60s and '70s. you idiot, women didn't work then, then they joined the work force. child care costs are out of control. eating more and more salary. i know a lot of people who don't work -- >> child care costs may be too high. >> it's killing the labor force. you don't think so. >> you have to look at broad price indexes for christ sake. there's 3,000 prices in there. you can't make a fed tightening case on inflation. >> my points is, larry, it is not in the data. child care, health care -- >> steve, distinguished reporter that he is, hangs out with all these fed people. that's all he does.

no, i don't talk to them anymore. i'm just saying to take care of the womanhood issue, an eighth and done. then you have to promise me you're not going to say anything until we're well into next year. >> you buy that? >> no. >> i'm opposed to this rules-based thing. if you decide that the phillips curve is your rule, as unemployment falls, inflation goes up. we know that's not true in the current context. which rule do you want to use in order to guide monetary policy? inflation is falling. i agree there is is no reason to do anything and there are outside influences that will blow back in our face if the fed starts a tightening process with the ecb is about to go easier. >> by the wait, tightening process, i agree. a lot of people expect to see sequential tightening process. >> are you running for senate? >> profits are flat. profits are flat.

that's not good. profits are the mother's milk of stocks and the lifeblood of the economy. i will just tell you how furious i am. >> are you furious enough to run for senate in the nutmeg state of connecticut? >> i may be. i'm looking at it. i'm not going to make your announcement today. >> subsidized child care. >> this country should not be allowing iran $150 billion to kill americans, to kill israelis, to kill syrians. you saw that picture of that young child on the beach who was dead because they tried to escape. we must not help the bad guys and that infuriates me. and all people who vote for this resolution should be held to account. i call it a citizen's movement. will i be part of that movement? we'll wait and see. >> i think he's running. i think you're running. >> we'll wait and see but i am furious. funny, i'm a supplier sider. normally i'd run as tax rates as my main issue. i'll get to that later but the iranian thing is making me so

angry. >> nobody asked me, but i am not running for senate either in new york or connecticut. >> me neither. >> it was a good discussion. steve is maybe not a hawk, maybe an osprey. may be running for senate. >> an eighth and done. >> right now on cnbc.com, i wrote a piece called "five reasons why the jobs report was solid." i'd like to hear your thoughts. larry, check it out. powerlunch.cnbc.com. also on facebook and all that other stuff. >> i'll tweet. >> thank you. up next, headed live to the floor of the new york stock exchange. the dow down more than 300 points right now. here's a look at all ten of your sectors. they are in the red. as we head out, a look at the biggest gainers at the new york stock exchange. not a lot.

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1%. the 10-year is yielding 2.12%. gold down by .33%. $1,120 per ounce. s&p consumers up 1.5%. winners, dollar tree, l brands and dollar general also trading higher. more on today's market action, bob pisani is on the floor of the new york stock exchange. bob, what sprix me is a weakness in the financials and looking at some components there from their most kree cent highs we are looking at morgan stanley down almost 18% from its recent highs. these are major financial institutions. >> i think what's happening is they are trying to take down the numbers on some of these financial stocks because there is supposed to be big earnings gainers this quarter. think there's some doubt about that given the interest rate environments not rising much. very simple story here, by an

large there is not a lot of selling pressure but there's not a lot of buying interest either. you've got an average day here and no buying interest. prices have to drop to entice the buyers. 5:1 declining to advancing. volatility is trending on the up side. why are we down today. one, a lot of problems in japan down 2% when china closes. jobs report was inconclusive on the rate hike, on monday china's open, u.s. is closed. a lot of people aren't that enthusiastic about buying. the s&p, we were weak going into the jobs report on japan being weak. we're sitting essentially at lows for the day. sectors, financials and melissa's right, highlighting financials there, down more than the rest. but materials, consumer staples, everything's down 1.8%, 1.92% here. in terms of earnings, they

aren't that great. we were expecting them to be up for the third quarter just a couple of months ago. they're right now down 4.1%. this is the s&p 500 earnings. that's a little bit worse than a few weeks ago. i'm keeping an eye on the market on close imbalances. there's a slight buy side impal which would imply there is not a material impact at the close on market and close orders but i'll keep an eye on that for you. >> thanks, bob pisani. let's get to kate rogers with a news alert. >> our partners over at recode are reporting uber is going to unveil a big e-commerce delivery program some time in the fall. re/code says the partnership will start in new york city and will include some flashy luxury brands and stores sometimes found in and around 5th avenue in new york city. partners in san francisco will be announced some time around the same time. this delivery option will

include a wide range of shopping websites and apps. definitely something to keep an eye on. our partners as re/code reporting uber's going to unveil this big e delivery program some time in the fall. now to the housing market. perhaps a bullish sign for the it economy. diana olick has more. >> reporter: look, it is a bright side to those higher and higher home prices we keep talking about. more borrowers gaining equity in their homes and coming up from under water on their mortgages. share of borrowers with negative equity which is owing more than your home is worth fell to 14.4% in q2 or 7.4 million borrowers. that's up 17% from q1 and nearly 18% from a year ago. all of this according to zillow. if you break it down, the least valuable homes are most likely to be in negative equity. 24% of the homes in the bottom third are in negative equity, 8%

in the top third. but the bright side is that is that bottom tier has seen the most equity growth. why is that so good? well, because the supply of homes for sale on the low end, that is homes that would be right for those first-time buyers is painfully low. so this jump in equity could help those owners of those first homes move up to the next home and boost that entry level home, just the boost the market could use right now. of course it won't happen fast. negative equity is one thing but you still need enough equity in your force to be able to afford and move up and one-third of borrowers still don't have that, according to zillow. coming up next, six pro money moves to make right now. we've got $265 billion worth of advice coming your way. just minutes away from the cruise oil close. live to the oil pits in new york straight ahead. take a look at those losses in microsoft, down almost 3%.

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for the week. it's down 339 points today. how should you be investing in this market? joe doran, ceo of united capital with $15 billion under management, ernesto ramos. er ne ernesto, what are the markets telling us and how will that impact investors? i'm seeing a market where practically everything including financials are lower on the day and we have bond yields going higher. >> well, i think what the market is telling us today is the fact that they don't know what's going to happen at the next fed meeting and that uncertainty is roiling the markets. add to that uncertainty on the fed, you have the china issues, systematic strategies piling into rules-based selling. all of that is creating a lot of volatility. but our advice to our clients is stay the course, do not attempt

to trade in to these situations or out of these situations. stay the course because longer term we still think u.s. stocks are a great place to be. >> joe, i'm looking at the notes. sounds like you do also think that this pullback is something that an investor should look through and sort of take the long-term view on. one of your top areas here are the mega caps. basically the s&p 500. arguably those are the most exposed international headwinds potentially. is there concern at any level that you are putting your money right now into an area that will be most impacted by slowdowns elsewhere? >> no -- yes, of course, there's always concern when you invest. but we try to tell people, we've already had a stealth bear market in a lot -- hundreds of the s&p 500 stocks have already experienced 20% declines. it's perfectly normal for this to occur. it's been almost 1,000 days

since we've had a 15% decline in the indexes. it typically happens every 400 days so we're well overdo and, do not panic. as far as whether you're at risk in large-cap names more exposed to the global markets, they are also the ones to take advantage of what's happening in europe. we also think that will interest rates as they go up, smaller companies have less flexibility on their balance sheets and typically in a rising interest rate environment, you are better off being in larger names and currencies right now are very unpredictable. but i think what you'll see is that we've already priced in a lot of the weakness we're seeing in commodities and the currency noise and slowdown we've had in china. so you want to invest when things have already priced in some of the negatives. and again what you don't want to do is react after you've had the decline, then move to defensiveness. >> talking about some of the areas that have seen the most declines. ernesto, some of your top holdings are in financials. one of them, citigroup, by its

high, down more than 18%. that's a large move for a financial institution to go down 18% since the end of july. it seemed like everybody was piling into financials in anticipation that the fed would raise interest rates by september. now there's this sort of re readjustment, maybe that's not going to happen and maybe earnings estimates have to come down. >> well, we think the market as a whole will have earnings, 10%, 11%. financials have-hard hit because they expected a steepening of yield curve which is very beneficial to financials earlier in the year is now not necessarily looking for that. in fact, the yield curve has flattened and the risk here is that the fed moves aggressively and exacerbates that effect. we still are happy with our holdings in financials because we do think eventually we will see strengthening of the u.s. economy and a steepening of the yield curve which will benefit

companies such as citigroup. but right now that is basically on a pause. we're excited about other sectors. you mentioned consumer discretionary holding up. we are -- that's our biggest overweight, names like macy's there, strengthens the u.s. consumer and that's playing into that sector very nicely. >> joe, getting to how much power the central banks now have, the ecb the other day indicated that it was open to a lot more stimulus if need be. yet we saw very little reaction particularly in germany. you like europe. are you concerned that thiss monetary policy has already been priced into those markets which are now well into correction territory? >> yeah, they definitely have been priced in. i think what you're seeing is this game of chicken that's happening around the world. i only wish that the fed would actually do something and get it out of the way because the uncertainty makes it hard for fundamental investors to make a choice, and therefore you get all of these technicians who are

just moving money to cash is discriminantly regardless of the valuations of stocks having allowed a voice. of course we're in the end of summer period so they have a disproportionate voice. i wish the fed would just say, okay, the sky's not falling, we're not in 2008, we need to start taking a different perspective. i don't know that they will but that would be my preference to just get it out of the way. >> all right. i think a lot of people are in the same camp. guys, thank you. great conversation. let's now head out to sharon epperson with your news headlines. a third same-sex couple receiving a marriage license in rowan county kentucky comes as one of its clerks kim davis is in jail for refusing to issue marriage licenses to gay couples. for the first time in 48 years, l.l. bean is voluntarily closing its 24/7 year-round flagship store in freeport, maine. it will close for a half-day for the memorial of its long-term leader leon gorman on sunday,

september 13th. gorman died this week at the age of 80. a final approval to a class action suit filed by former boeing workers over retirement plan benefits after the company sold its wichita operations. three football fans recovering after getting injured by a piece of falling debris. it happened during last night's colts/bengals game in indianapolis. the degree believed to be a bolt hit them as the retractal roof was opening. a colts spokesperson says the incident is now under investigation. that's our cnbc news update for this hour. back to you. >> that's what they get for playing an '80s rock band, the bangles. they should have played the bengals and nothing would have happened. they just have just been walking like egyptians. i said it. walk like an egyptian. jackie deangelis is down at the new york mercantile exchange. >> as we expected, at at close, seeing a little more selling

pressure. we settled today at $46.05, after we saw a little bit of a rebound after the rig count numbers came out but we did stay in negative territory during the session. probably because of the action that we're seeing in the equity market. though when it comes to the crude price today, not quite as severe. before the close we broke that $46 mark but it is a weighted ash average which is probably why we closed over. consumers getting a break with these gas prices, $2.42. buckle, gas prices could go up, too. as you said, inwant wanted to mn a near-3% gain. now to morgan brennan. >> the mining sector which includes oil and gas shed another 9,000 jobs in august bringing total losses since december up to 90,000 according to the labor department. we've seen declines in every months this year but with crude

down 20% in three months, those cuts seem to be once again gaining momentum. . it's not just energy jobs. pain's not rippling out to other industries. last month manufacturing shed 17,000 jobs and a big chunk of that 7,000 were in fabricated metal which has been dented by a steep drop in demand for products used in drilling. while transportation growth was pretty much flat for the month we also know that railroads like union pacific have been laying off workers due to volume weakness in coal, as well as other commodities like metal and crude. an overall strong jobs report, relatively strong jobs report but not so for the oil patch and everything related to it. >> thank you, morgan. as you might imagine, all ten s&p sectors are down right now but there are three of them that you need to keep your eye on. we'll tell you what those three are next. you focus on making great burgers, or building the best houses in town. or becoming the next highly-unlikely dotcom superstar. and us, we'll be right there with you, helping with the questions you need answered

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dow jones on track to end the week down more than 3%. but many people are off. a lot of traders are on vacation. so will normalcy return once people do next week? we've got piper jaffray's craig johnson on the charts, erin gibbs of s&p capital iq. erin, i hate that, everyone's on

vacation, it is true to a point but i'm sure there are other things causing this. i know people have come back to their desks. what do you think about next week? you expect this crazy volatility to continue? >> basically, yes. look, one of the things is we're all sort of waiting for the fed meeting in two weeks and there isn't any major economic news over the next two weeks. there's also no earnings. i see us really in this very volatile trading it range right now. we've been stuck in between 16 1/2 to 15 1/2 times forward earnings. that trading range is where we were for most of 2014. i could see us being within that sort of 5% band. right now we're sort of at the top. i could see us going back down to about 1,860. that's a 5% drop or so from where we are, that puts us at that 12% the next four months. we don't have a major catalyst but we have a lot of nervousness going on. >> are you able to accurately

sort of chart these kind of markets when you have these massive swings? or the other side, i'm told this is almost now purely a technical driven market. >> well, brian, i heard that comment earlier and it is not just all a technically driven market so i would certainly dismiss that. but when you have this kind of volatility in the market we have right now, this is are with you pull out the big long-term charts on the market. that's exactly what we have provided for all of you here today. a look back over the last ten years on a monthly basis. the long-term up trend that started on the right shoulder of the bottom that took place in '08, '09, draw that line going. you that up trend is so very much intact at this point in time. what we are looking at when you zoom in to a shorter-term five-year week lly chart is, the are a couple key support levels. 1985 and 1820, the august lows of last year. as long as that low holds, i think you get a strong argument that you are just getting some

backing and filling after we broke out above the 2000 and 2007 highs. that's naturally. a little backing and filling before you see the next leg up. volatility has been good for trading desk. bottom line. >> 1905, they be maybe 1820. those are the numbers. erin and craig, see you online. more "trading nation" every day at tradingnation.cnbc.com. another check on the markets here. all three major indices deep in the red, just off session lows right now. scott renn, great to have you with us. are you sticking by your s&p 500 year-end target of up to 2,250? is. >> yes. 2,150 to 2,250 we feel good about that. i think fundamentals are in place and i think this is overdone. valuations were not even stretched in our opinion at the top at the record high so i think we're going to finish this year on a good note and have

some volatility here -- no doubt, trying to find a bottom. but i think the last couple months of the year people will be surprised. >> there are a lot of institutions now reexamining their exposure to risk, whether for fundamental reasons or technical reasons. mohammed el-erian told me earlier this week on "fast money" there are a lot of institutions that still need to readjust. jpmorgan came out with a note today saying only half of technical selling was completed to date in that they estimate a further $100 billion of selling remains to be completed in the next one to three weeks. are you concerned that this element of reexamining your allocatio allocations, then this notion of technical selling could actually put more pressure on the markets than you're foreseeing? >> i think it is going to cause a lot of volatility but i think the bottom line is we're seeing better beta here in the states. we're going to see better data out of the eurozone and japan.

i think in china you'll see stabilization there. we've got a 6.8 gdp number out there that we feel good about. i think what's going to happen is as we try to find this bottom, some of the -- these issues are going to be cleared up, or at least be a little less dramatic to the downside. so those all certainly contribute to volatility. but i'll tell you this, melissa. retail investors are underinvested in stocks. they're sitting on too much cash. we've been telling our clients, this is an opportunity. valuations aren't even at 16 times the median 16.7 times the last 30 years. if you believe that things are improving here slowly, which they are, and things are going to improve abroad, this is an opportunity to step in, buy these sectors, like consumer discretionary, like technology, and like industrials which, believe it or not, have been outperform since the middle of july. we want our clients to think this is an opportunity.

it might be volatile. we can't tell you where the bottom is but a year or two from now, certainly a year from now or less, we're going to be at much better levels. >> based on your target and based on yesterday's close, you are implying at least a 10% return from here. does that mean you are recommending to investors they be fully invested in cash? plenty of other guys out there like bill gross of janus saying essentially move to cash, move to all cash right now. you're saying be fully invested? >> our clients have too much cash right now, melissa. so we want them legging in here on the way down. if a client told me i have "x" amount of cash, i want to have it eventually in the stock market, i would have no problem with them doing one-third of it in here right now today. so we want them to get fully invested on this pullback because i pink this cyclical bull market still has a couple more years to go. we'll see good, not great returns, probably through 2017 but they are certainly

investable returns that we want our clients taking advantage of. >> scott wren, wells fargo. we are are all over this market move for you. we're out on wall street, we're down now about 327 points on the dow. the nasdaq is down 1.5%. the s&p 500 down just under 2%. you could say it is a reaction to the jobs report, the fed, continued concerns about china, maybe brazil. coming up though, what is the real state of the u.s. economy? what will the fed do? what is the next move? what's going to happen? we're going to go to break, then we're going to come back and talk about that. that's what the next move is. we'll see you after this. >> announcer: now the latest from trade regionnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor.

graphic is correct. market is selling off. s&p 500 is down 11.8% off its

lows. but still at 1,915. the worst performer in the s&p 500 this week has just been decimated because the commodity collapse. that's heavy equipment maker joy global. that stock is down 20% in just five days. it is going to be hard to sell big tractors and stuff if nobody wants to mine it out of the ground because you can't make money in what you're pulling out. not all stocks are down this week. if you own cablevision, congratulations, it is the best performer in the s&p 500 so far this week. up i think about 8%. let's talk more now about the overall state of the economy and also about europe. tiaacreff economist joins us. fiscally we couldn't stand two percentage point higher. do you agree with that. >> i think they should raise rates. i've thrown my hands up to what the fed is going to do.

they've changed the rules so many times, i'm sure they'll figure out another excuse not to raise rates. i thought they should have a year ago but that's another story. they should raise rates. i keep hearing there is no inflation. we have to separate commodity inflation and services inflation. their easy money created the drop in commodity prices. to then now use low commodity prices as an excuse not to raise rates. they are in this feedback loop they can't get out of. it is time somebody stem celps d tries to get out of it. >> we argued the other day on the air that inflation as the fed measures it maybe is kind of an outdated thing because paw with the global it commodity deflationary aspect i'm not sure we're ever going to see the inflation numbers the fed would like to. >> certainly not in the short term but as the economy continues to improve we should expect to see some inflation towards the end of this year but really picking up in the second

half of 2016. what does the fed do? or do you care? >> i think as the long-term investor we shouldn't care. but i think we learned last weekend that the fed wants to get that first rate hike behind them, they want to do it and they want to do it now. i think the only things we as investors can do is assume that they're going to raise rates in september at the next meeting, and their's really only two things that can stop that right now, if the data between now and then is very soft, then that could stop them and it is not. it's basically ho-hum, middle of the road, neither too strong nor too soft. it is certainly not an exclues not to raise. secondly, as if the market's really going to drive off the cliff at this point which they have not yet. but if they were, then perhaps for financial stability reasons they would not raise. but other than that we would assume that they'll raise. >> i wants to change topics a

little bit because of what's going on in europe. the european economy has been recovering as a whole and some of the austerity issues are getting behind them. we know what's happening with the migrant crisis.

welcome back to "power lunch." right now all three major indices firmly in the red just off session lows. check out the fang stocks. all trading lower. netflix as has been the trend of late is the worst performing of the group, down 25 pst. coming up next, five big opportunities. the gillette mach 3 turbo

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all laptops on sale, save $230 on this dell 2-in-1. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. it is the 20th anniversary of "squawk box." and the celebration starts next week. some of the smartest people in business. watch "squawk box" starting 6:00 a.m. on tuesday. time for street talk. analyst recommendations on stocks you need to know about. public storage. raymond james upgrades to outperform from a market perform. target $220 about 8% up side. stock's up 10% this quarter.

analyst says fundamentals are terrific. jonathan hughes loves cube smart. >> you've got to wonder if rising rates will be a head wind for the sector. linkedin is one i'm watching. pulled back rates a chance to buy the stock. nasdaq decline just over 7%. investors may be concerned by a second half guidedown. analyst says weakness is contained offset by emerging market opportunities. talent solutions which is a core growth engine remains strong. >> i wonder if better economy is bad for linked-in because less people are looking for job. >> cowan raised the target from $19 to $16. they say free cash flow should jump next year. they see a possible buyback or dividend increase. they like the fact this airline

is making its fleet smaller. >> a couple of interesting bright spots in the airline index. jetblue is one. republic airways up more than 7% today. interesting. pacific crest, back-to-school shopping. put box in your bag. makes it a compelling opportunity now. stock down 38% from its recent june high. $24 price target. >> the lowest ipo price. 21 and change is the average target. analysts have got to get busy on this or cut price targets. here we see it increased. methode electronics. biometric devices. upgrading to a buy from hold target. $40. there you go. >> that's an interesting one. >> it's going to be about apple

on "fast." we've got a top analyst telling us what to expect getting ready for the september 9th event. we are off session lows right now. >> maybe we could combined the apple event with the fed meeting. "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm simon hobbs in for bill griffeth. >> stocks selling off the back of this morning's jobs report. investors anticipate a potential fed rate hike this month. how the different sectors are performing. we've got consumer discretionary down 1.2% on the top left of your screen. the hardest hit today are financials. down 2%. >> goldman sachs contributing about 30 points to the