tv Closing Bell CNBC September 4, 2015 3:00pm-5:01pm EDT
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on "fast." we've got a top analyst telling us what to expect getting ready for the september 9th event. we are off session lows right now. >> maybe we could combined the apple event with the fed meeting. "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm simon hobbs in for bill griffeth. >> stocks selling off the back of this morning's jobs report. investors anticipate a potential fed rate hike this month. how the different sectors are performing. we've got consumer discretionary down 1.2% on the top left of your screen. the hardest hit today are financials. down 2%. >> goldman sachs contributing about 30 points to the loss on
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the dow. blackrock's global chief investment strategist will join us to discuss whether the sell-off could get worse when china's markets open next week or whether this is actually a clear buying opportunity. this is a cnbc exclusive coming up. >> as we get ready for this holiday weekend, an energy expert says gas prices going below $2 a gallon. >> there is a big conference this weekend that could shape up biotech stocks. which names could be impacted. >> are people upset with the jobs number this morning? >> the problem is it was inconclusive. there are several sectors that have people a little concerned going into the close here. goldman down 5%, down better than 7%, 8% on the week.
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financials in general are weak. another sector, a little bit of concern here. you mentioned biotech are weak. pfizer down almost 2%. keep an eye on big pharma. we were very weak in japan overnight. weak going into the jobs report. the jobs report data is inconclusive. china's open on monday, the u.s. is closed.
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i think a lot of buyers are saying, i'll just sit it out. there is a small buy imbalance indicating this is probably not going to be a lot of impact on market on imbalances at the close. that's dynamic. it could change. >> let's get to steve liesman about what the fed will do in the wake of the report. >> i want to give you the data here. let's start off here with the actual unemployment rate. 5.1%. the significance right there is in the middle of the fed's full employment range. 5% to 5.2% range. bottom line is that's right in the center of the full employment rate. moving on to the next number
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here, the payrolls came in below expectations at 220,000. expectation 173,000. the three-month average which is the way the fed will look at it. still above 200,000. this number, the august nonfarm payroll report has been reported light for most of the past five years. ends up being revised up a lot. finally the last two bits of important data, wages up 0.3%. a little better than expected. revisions tell us the momentum remains strong up 44,000. here is where basic guys on wall street firms are. wells fargo, th macro advisors. all those folks are in the september camp. these are reports after the number came out. in the december camp, credit suisse, oxford economics then goldman sachs still saying it's a september call here for that federal reserve rate hike. here are some of the reasons we are hearing out there. we are at full employment. you don't gain anything from
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waiting unless you end up pushing it many months. then you might get some stimulus from not going. u.s. economic strength. inflation is still soft. market remains volatile. you would be hiking into a volatile market. global economic weakness. some say it's not a big deal for the u.s. economy. >> let me pick it up and apologize. i thought when we came to you you were standing outside the federal reserve. >> the graphics were very convincing. tomb stones in front of the fed here. >> what do you think? >> i think they would go if markets calm down. there is still a big retail sales report to come. the rest of the data is strong, it's hard for the fed to hold the line. i think they do a quarter and tell us they will wait a while.
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we. >> we have a speech coming up on the 24th. >> that would be after the meeting. by the way, there will be a press conference. the fed did have a press conference at the last quarterly meeting. >> can i quickly ask if we can show the ten year? >> take as much time as you like. it's your show. >> what i don't understand about today's market action is what's happening with interest rates? at last check and let's see if this is still the case, i thought the yields on the 10-year had fallen. either people think the odds of a rate hike have been delayed or they'll raise and it will be bad for the economy. >> i feel like the market and the economy are like two folks that have been married a while that aren't talking to each other. i don't say that from personal experience in my life. that's what it feels like.
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i can't find the connection. it's hard to see the connection between the markets and the expectation. take a look at the two year. what they are doing. you guys are great in the back there. that 70 point is on the edge of a rate hike. we were down 68 and up as high as 73. it's been all over the place today. >> the relationship is one that jeffrey gundlach has been pointing out at the longer end of the 30 year. >> not to mention the impact of some countries like china maybe getting out of dollars. has been thought to put pressure on rates moving higher. we are not seeing that materialize today. >> ron isana makes that point. >> barclays' economist saying they don't think the fed is
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going till march. >> we didn't have that at the time. we would have put that on our tombstone back here. >> we wanted to mention it. there is a wide array of position out there. >> i think they call it the tablet. >> sometimes tablets, sometimes tomb stones. >> tablets is better. >> yesterday jeremy siegel gave his prediction of jobs and the fed. >> i'll tell you, if we see 5.1 tomorrow morning, i think the odds of a fed increase in two weeks goes way up. >> presumably 5.1% the risk of a fed increase has gone way up. joining us now art cashin and rick santelli. >> the onus is on the fed. the 5.16 is going to move
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psychology. i think the fed is on the verge of hiking and if they want to give themselves some room, we are going to have to hear fed speak that begins to change that. >> you fundamentally think they won't go? >> i think they would be crazy to go. >> in september? >> yes. the instability of the market, this morning we saw that the asian anxiety spread into tokyo and we've been seeing it grow in the emerging markets in asia. that's begun to leak back into europe. the germans are big on asian exports. they are not getting them done. their economy is beginning to stagnate and you've got this horrific migration problem that's popping up, too. >> i feel dutybound to point out the world markets were down overnight. arguably they extended losses because of the jobs report. even u.s. futures were down before we got the data today.
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we have a problem about emerging markets and what is happening in asia. we have a contagion, whether we refuse to accept that. >> we are in the fed's mandate to say they should worry about daily prices on the stock exchanges. they had a great chance roughly a year ago when we talked about the taper. they passed on that chance and i said it felt like they don't want to. we should be talking about whether they allow rates to rise. if they don't allow them to rise soon, you have to assume they want to keep your arm on the scale. the fed cannot solve the problem. we've been trying to force it on them because nothing is happening on the fiscal side. the problem we have simply is the employers are discouraged from hiring people.
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for them to worry about daily price fluctuations, things will never be perfect. i haven't seen things perfect in 40, 50 years. i've been married 52 years. if you're not talking to the wife, you should be on the same page here. >> it sounded like the fed was sitting on interest rates and purely in control of them. you trade in the pits there. >> i don't think any central planners have control. they have taken over the market space and have to vacate at some point. i disagree with just about everybody. i think all the volatility in
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the marketplace, all the turmoil in the marketplace is because of normalization. europe had problems for years. emerging markets ebb and flow because of the big developed economy central bank. for the fed to say we can't normalize because of volatility, it's a chicken and egg argument of the most infantile type. >> you remember lehman brothers? s that's what they've got to worry about. >> why? >> they could have a global impact. that's what they've got to worry about. >> of course it is. they calibrated the economy for capital. >> we've gotten down to where we
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now have 2.7 trillion in excess free reserves. i argue the fed funds rate is already 25 basis points. >> let market forces work. let them move the rate and show there is confidence in the u.s. economy normalizing. we can't be on these drugs forever. let the market force prevail. >> guys we are arguing about a quarter point. >> exactly. >> if we are that susceptible to a quarter point, we have far
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explain why. >> as we all try to relax this weekend, biotech analysts are going to be traveling to denver where the world conference on lung cancer kicks off on sunday. it's an interesting meeting this year. especially for drugs in immuno therapy. these are drugs that enable our system to fight cancer. bristol-meyers had the drug approved there. they are testing that drug in combination with other drugs. others in the class trying to find the best combination that will be the most effective with the least side effects. we are also looking at a smaller company which is in a race with astrazeneca.
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there is another basket of stocks. >> if you had to pick one, which would it be? >> that might breakthrough in terms of being real advanced for patients? >> i think folks are excited about these immunotherapy drugs. when they find patients that work, they work really well. >> the market is huge. >> thank you so much. have a great long weekend. let's send it over to dominic chu on market flash. >> we are watching shares of blackberry. another casualty of the market
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sell-off. one of the brighter spots after announcing plans to buy good technology for $425 million in cash. >> 40 minutes to go till the close. s&p down 32. nasdaq down 35. as oil prices decline, gas prices hitting their lowest labor day levels. get this, 11 years. we'll discuss whether prices at the pump will continue to fall.
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dow down 300 points. i would describe it as a broad-based down. this in the wake of the report that global markets are down on concerns what is happening with emerging markets. we are warned we are in crisis with some emerging markets down 40% on the stock market and currencies having fallen. >> that is what art cashin was talking about. crude can't catch a bid today either. let's get over to jackie deangelis with a preview of next week. >> that's right.
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we saw 70 cents decline in crude oil prices at the close. it was 1.5% decline. volatility in the session. we were watching the equity market. crude losses could have been worse. we had a decline of 13 oil rigs. you had a weaker dollar. traders clearing positions before the long weekend. some of them just don't want to be short when they are going away. having said that, they do expect volatility to continue. it was a wild week when everything was said and done, wti up almost 2%. >> i guess the flip side is there are plenty of people hitting the road for labor day weekend. if you are tuning into cnbc, we'll talk more about oil and gasoline prices now. >> some people may be driving as they are listening. john kilduff is standing partner
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at agen capital. >> we have a ways to go here. down on a national average, low is $1.80, maybe $1.70 before this is all said and done. at a low point probably mid fall. >> is that based on where crude is already trading? gasoline itself, there are ample supplies and a glut of winter grade fuel that will be started to be used october 1st. that will play into an oversupplied market.
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you get big moves to clear the prices. >> as those prices get down, you'll see the numbers i'm talking about forecasting $1.80, $1.70, refining margins will get hit. if those refining margins become unattractive, you'll see refiners shut in. now they are running at 95% capacity. we've seen them trim that capacity back to 80% at times when business gets bad. >> very briefly if you would, i heard or read many times that actually the shutdown, the maintenance program for this fall is actually heavier than normal for refiners. is that correct? >> that is correct. they've been running full out really hard to cash in on what's been an unbelievably profitable environment for them. something i haven't seen in my career, $30 a barrel profit.
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sometimes it's been down around $2 and $3. >> exxon and chevron in the dow down about 2% today. thanks for now. >> thank you very much. >> time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> a story we've been following. a group tracking the flow of migrants into europe saying 364,000 arrived this year. it also finds that more than 2,800 have died along the way. most of those deaths happened during sea crossings from north africa. prosecutors planning to seek the death penalty against a man accused of gunning down a louisiana state trooper last month. 54-year-old kevin dagle was indicted today. the trooper stopped to help him. appealing a judge's decision that could land him under house arrest. mayor landrieu will be held in contempt if he doesn't come with
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an acceptable plan to pay city firefighters. >> if prices go up, blame mcdonald's all-day breakfast plan. the fast foot giant may hurt the nation's egg supply which is constrained by this year's bird flu outbreak. no comment from mcdonald's. they can't catch a break lately. that is the cnbc news update. back to you. >> a tough thing to hedge, egg prices. not a lot of xex services fu co for that one. >> more chickens. >> yes, it would. >> thank you, sue. >> the dow is down 291 points. the s&p 32, nasdaq 57. >> up next, a top trader tells us what to watch as we roll through the final and most important half hour of not just
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this session but of course a volatile week. >> you might catch the 3:33 woof-woof when we come back from break. >> a global market expert tells us what could happen when china's markets reopen next week. >> the 20th anniversary celebration of "squawk box" starts on tuesday. they've got an all-star group of guests sharing their investment ideas for the next 20 years. deng of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.
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we go into the close here today. it's a three-day weekend. patient buyers get rewarded here. are we still going to trend for a little while? volatility is back. >> in advance of a long weekend, there is excitement because people have the monday off. think are looking at the clock and waiting for it to get to 3:33:33. at that point, i have a feeling they are going to become even louder.
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>> i don't think they liked that one too much. you get a pushback when they don't get the response they are looking for. a thumbs down on that one. >> have a great weekend. back to you. >> it's been a while since we caught that one on camera. stocks spilling off on the back of the u.s. jobs report. what happens next week when the chinese market reopens? joining us for a global outlook is chief strategist from blackrock. stocks not looking that great. what happens when china reopens? >> next week investors will refocus on china. this is more about the u.s. and fed than about china. i think the key is less about the chinese stock market. let's remember, very few people outside of china have direct exposure to the market. it's more about what does the economy look like and how will
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china slowdown affect the rest of the global economy? is this the market reacting to europe or asia trading or are we setting the agenda for more selling pressure into next week because of the close here? >> we've got a friday coming up. i think this is a key point. think about what broke the market down today. it was actually a decent payroll print, little mixed on the nonfarm job number. it raised the spector that despite the slowdown of the global economy, falling inflation expectations, the fed is likely to go the back part of the year. that rather than the news out of china is driving the market down
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today. >> it didn't raise interest rates. >> they are moving lower but not as much as you think. we've seen a big sell-off in equity markets. we've seen volatility spike to the highest level since 2009. >> what do you think of the idea they might move now on september the 17th? there are many people who are market participants who think they say the fed will be making a major policy error? the mere fact they believe that
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has ramifications in itself. >> it does. we believe that given the international volatility, given the fallen inflation expectations, september is no longer the most likely. here is the key point why investors are reacting as violently as they are. if the fed were to hike, they would be hiking in an environment which inflation expectations are falling. that means real rates are rising faster than nominal rates. in the past, that's been when you have seen the more severe corrections in equity markets. >> with that said, we've seen the selling pressure continue even with the thousand-point swings held to last week. how much further could this sell-off, broadly speaking, have to go? >> you've already seen the u.s. equity market correct 10%. it's possible we revisit those lows. even when you have these more violent reactions, what investors should take comfort in
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is generally these are corrections. >> you are talking about 10% on 10%, that's 20%. that is bear market territory. that would change the narrative. >> that would. i'm not suggesting go down to 10% from here. i'm saying you may go back and test the lows from a couple of weeks ago. a 20% correction would be an unusual response to the fed. >> russ, have a great weekend. >> thank you very much. >> dow still down 2.42. pressure across the s&p. nasdaq down nearly 1% today. >> we are not asking what's up, but what's app? new details on the social media
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this is where we stand with 19 minutes to trade for the week. summer lulls, but reduced volume giving us extra volatility. currently down 232 points. well off our lows we had earlier in the session of 333. financials down 4%. >> not a great environment for these names. even though talking about a better economy and fed rate
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hike. new numbers from facebook. user growth exploding. >> this is absolutely right. the numbers are striking. the company announcing now has 900 million active users. that's 100 million more than it had in april and that's 50% growth over the past 12 months. wasapp allows users to send text and voice. it's competition to skype and viber. this is competition to telecom companies. facebook won't reveal how many of its whatsapp users are paying. it's free to download and free to use the first year then costs 99 cents per year. analysts expect facebook to find more ways to generate money from the service. wasapp shows why facebook spent $22 billion to buy the start-up in october, one of the biggest acquisitions in silicon valley.
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it's worth noting that wasapp is now three times the size of twitter. twitter's user growth has been flat. facebook has built an audience and then finding ways to make money. that's what it did with its core network and in the process with instagram. so far, that approach seems to be working. >> anecdotally, we hear people talking about using whatsapp. is it still doing enough here in the u.s.? is it really penetrating? do they give color or numbers around that? >> based on that 900 million active user number. must be growing more in the u.s. personally, i found it was much bigger overseas. i'm finding more of my friends here are using it. we don't have that many details from facebook. the fact it added 100 million active users just this april and another 100 million since
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january shows it must be having growth here, as well. certainly even more room to grow because it is such a distinctively global service. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin. that was a $19 billion acquisition. crazy to many at the times but the numbers are huge. >> 900 million. >> our next guest will explain why the volatility index could be a key indicator whether the fed will raise rates. and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex.
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we are cutting our losses where we were. good afternoon. your central premise here is -- talk me through what the fed will do? >> historically, if you look at the history of the vix, the volatility fear gauge, generally the vix spikes above 40 which we had not too long ago, the next move for the federal reserve is not to tighten, it's to ease. it would be unusual given historical behavior if the fed were to tighten a couple of weeks given every other time you had such an extreme move in equities, the fed did the opposite. >> my recollection of doing this job for 18 years is that the fed has begin the market what they wanted time and time again. it is ease their pain. this may be the first time they do raise in two weeks' time, they will do so with a substantial number of people thinking they shouldn't. it is a policy mistake.
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>> i think also that brings into question if the fed is going to maintain this implicit mandate to build up asset prices which was never the intention of the creation of the central bank. seems to be what the purveyors of analysts are saying the fed has to bail out the market every time the market goes down. that is wildly dangerous if we think the fed has to stop volatility from entering the marketplace. volatility is not fear and it's not necessarily bad. it is healthy in a long-term bull market. >> where are you on the bond market though? that is a price they want to keep high to keep the interest rates relatively low. >> credit spreads have been widening for some time. i do think the way inflation expectations have been dropping suggest it will be hard to raise rates. what will drive central bank
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policy is two things. one is a stable rebound in oil. oil seems to correlate well or drive inflation expectations. that's been the one thing the fed has not gotten. of course, a general contraction in credit spreads and better environment for credit markets. you can get that oversold balance in some of the emerging commodities which everyone is wildly bearish on. people get bearish on things after the big decline happened. you should do the opposite. >> there it a transmission mechanism in this country that can be slow. >> volatility works both way. this has been a prolonged period of time where defensive signals
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have been signaling volatility comes. now everyone is screaming about volatility near term. i have a feeling it's not going to be that easy. >> good to see you. have a great weekend. >> up next, we are coming right back with the closing countdown. after the bell, a veteran economist and trusted stock-picker and job placement executive will be on hand to discuss today's employment number. you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. sup jj? working hard? here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app in the app store.
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>> six minutes to trade. this is the story of the day. dow down and continuing to track lower during the session. we are cutting those losses as we come through to the close. now down 214 points. art cashin is here. what is happening here to the end now? >> we have a change in the market on the close program. somebody came in right about that bottom and put in over $1 billion worth to buy on the close. that influenced people to begin to pick the prices back up so that hipped us regain at least 100 points from the lows. it looks like it's still in good stead. little nervousness on the floor. traders are worried on monday asia will be open, europe will
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be open so people planning to be at the sea shore are planning to get electronically connected to their trading desks in europe. >> this is a classic event risk, isn't it? >> absolutely. >> we are not trading as a market monday. other people will be trading. you said to me many times that the greatest risk actually going into that is to short the market. that is the greater risk in case something very positive happens and your shorts get knocked down. >> if you're long, you can only lose the money you have in the market. if you're short, your loss could be infinite. >> it might be why you just see some cutting of the losses. bob, join us here. >> i think next week we are going to see china data that will be very important. that will determine whether the markets are calmer or not. we are going to see the start of the big analyst conference season. we are going to get updates from some of the big financials, some of the big industrials, some of
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the big tech names. we haven't heard from any of the ceos in a couple months. we need to know what the state of the global business is. we haven't heard from the ceo community. that's why it's going to get interesting in the next couple of wix. still uncertainty ahead of the fed. >> do you feel there is a big stroke for the rebound in earnings some people talk about in the second half of the year? >> i find that a bit of a stretch only because i think the weakness in china is beginning to spread into places like europe. germans are not able to export in the manner they would like. i think that's going to affect demand in a variety of other places. it's hard for me to conceive we can get a sudden earnings. >> we've been down that block.
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they've taken it and paid off debt rather than going out and buying something new. apparel sales have been dreadful this year. >> we've seen problems this week in the banks. i've been pointing out banks, prices have been coming down. we are expecting financials to be up 10% to help out earnings in the s&p. numbers are going to have a tough time with that. a lot of big names down 5%, 6%, 7% this week. that's why i want to get to these conferences and find out from jpmorgan what is going on. >> this is a factual thing we are seeing. i want to see how the long growth is. we haven't heard how long growth has been. if that is a spectacular number,
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that may offset the fact we are not seeing a big rise in interest rates that would help out earnings for these companies. >> utilities, health care are one of the big losing sectors. >> absolutely. there is a big biotech conference next week. that may get things shaken up. >> we saw pressure on biotech. a lot of those winners were being used as sources of funds on down days. that is very typical. other big names. those typically get sold. i would be encouraged by this close today. we are seeing average volume with a modest and comeback here. why wouldn't the buyers say, i'm
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not that excited? >> this is the holiday week, arguably. thank you very much. "closing bell" continues on cnbc with kelly evans. >> thank you, simon. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans. we had a volatile five minutes there dow making a comeback, right at the bell we dropped 273. art cashin told us there was a big order to buy on the close. that 1.1 billion got factored in early. we had to back down toward the lows. down about 335. we didn't quite do that badly. still, another decline of about 1.7%. s&p giving up 1.5%.
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now 1921 is the level there. dow is closing above 16,100. that nasdaq, remember when it was over 5,000, down another percent today to 4,683. the 10-year note, 2.13%. it has fallen since the jobs report hit 8:30 this morning. we've got this week's wild market swings coverage for you. bob pisani will bring us today's moves and bertha coombs over at the nasdaq. >> it's about the mixed signals. if you have a jobs number that seems to be okay, goldilocks
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better unemployment rate, all that translating to a volatile week. week-to-date, starting the 31st, down 115 points. up nearly 300. now down about 270 by the time we sort things out here. a volatile week. maybe not nearly as volatile as we've seen over the past 1 1/2 weeks. we saw big 600 point drops and moved higher throughout the course of the last couple of weeks. today you can see what's happening with the dow. it's been lower all day long ever since the open. we did catch a little bit of that bid. we are not going to finish at the lows. still 270 points to the down side overall. if you take a look where the actual sectorwise, here is where things get interesting. telecoms and consumer staples, less economically sensitive sectors like those. the relative outperformer so far this week in the s&p 500, only
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down by about 2%. health care. one of the hottest sectors out there the past couple of years showing most of the weakness here this week. the third biggest sector of the s&p 500 carries a lot of weight. utilities. dividend pair but down about 5% over the course of this week. interesting here, those sectors all viewed as interest rate sensitive. that rate picture factors in here. biotechnology industry group within health care overall. >> we had an issue with china closed. japan was weak. that was a problem overall for the markets here. that is a concern.
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the jobs report did not conclusively determine the fed would raise rates in september. china is open on monday. the u.s. is closed. a lot of buyers decided to sit on the sidelines and wait it out. that's what was going on a good part of the week. today was typical. not a lot of selling pressure. stocks down because buyers weren't that enthusiastic. they didn't see any reason to move. for the week, most of the market was down 3%. the u.s.-based stocks, russell 2,000, not down quite as much. i've been concerned about the financials. it was another week overall. goldman sachs, wells fargo, citigroup, jpmorgan, bank of america, all down 3% to 5%. most of the regional banks like suntrust and comerica down. some were expected to be up 10% the third quarter.
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i'll be watching these conferences the next couple of weeks. a number will be financial conferences. ceos from banks will be speaking on how business is doing in the third quarter. back to you. >> thank you. joining today's panel, we have evan newmark and kayla tausche. and guy adami. have these markets sold off more? >> my only regret today we didn't have a big purge sale which i didn't expect going into the labor day weekend. i was hoping we would get another purge sale. the s&p would go down below where it was. >> what level are you looking for? >> i'm looking at -- there is still froth in certain sectors. health care sector is overvalued. overall i wouldn't say stocks are grossly overvalued, but they
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are not cheap. the one exception is the energy sector which i think if you are going to take a relative bet, that sector is down 35%, 40%. >> a lot of times before a long weekend, we'll see negative activity because people don't necessarily want to be long going into a long weekend. it's dramatic in this case because we have had china close for two days. there is an expectation there might be some pent-up selling because of what we saw in japan. japan down 2.2% today despite relatively good economic data. hong kong has been down as well. even though we thought shanghai is going to be closed. we'll have a respite for a couple of days. relative stability here. people are fearing the worse given china will be open for a full day before the u.s. markets open. they learn to fear the worse. they've been conditioned to over the last few weeks. >> on the topic we love to discuss with you, interest rates. that is a real eyebrow raiser
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today. if you had the market selling off and interest rates moving up, okay the fed will raise rates now. if you have all this happening and rates moving lower, that i don't understand. >> that's been the conundrum for a while. we address that constantly on this show. i have my theories as to why that is happening. it's not important. what is important is it is happening. you can't bury your head and say interest rates don't matter. i said it, i'll say it again. i don't think this move has anything to do with our federal reserve. quarter point rate hike, they don't matter. they only control the front end. they no longer control anything but the front end. the bond market, if they wanted to raise rates, the bond market would do it. if the economy was as strong as the stock market until recently suggested, rates would be higher. you have to ask yourself what's happening. copper prices continue to get
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clubbed. yes, we saw a bounce in oil. that is clearly still under pressure. if you want two things that sit out to me, mario draghi's comments six months ago would have don't the markets up, s&p up 100 points for the week. s&p gave up the ghost, number one. then go back last week when carl icahn announced the stake in freeport-mcmoran. that stock has now down a round trip back to the levels that effectively they were when that was announced. why? uncle carl can say all he wants with freeport and their balance sheet, but somebody has to buy their end product. to me, that's been the problem all along with what's going on in the markets. >> guy, it's evan. if you are an investment manager, a pension manager, endowment manager, you have to be sitting here going, how am i going to get my 7%, 8% annual return right now? with the treasury yielding a little over 2%, the 10 year and
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stocks in your view being relatively expensive, where in the world are they going to come close to getting that return today? if stocks come down, they are a relatively good value bet. >> that's been the argument, as well. we agreed to disagree on this. i'm not saying stocks are expensive. i'm not suggesting, when i say this, i'm not suggesting 2007, 2008 all over again. stocks, if you recall, it wasn't valuation that knocked the market down back then. it was something other than valuation. similarly now. i don't think valuations have anything to do with it. stocks are probably a little expensive begin what eps growth is versus revenue growth. to me it's not a yield play. if you look at the instrument that dictate yield, they're up significantly. something like the tlt since we started talking about it has gone from a 90 to around 122.
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in percentage terms, that is a monster move. in terms of what you're yielding on the back end is insignificant, but in terms of what the instrument has done, that rallied significantly on a percentage basis. >> that makes it all the more interesting to give people some context around the utilities, just had their worst week since 2009. this as all the markets were selling off. going back to focus on the fundamentals, the jobs report this morning brings the average pace of job growth 212,000 a month. if you want to look at the three run rate of earnings, it's 4%, 5%. millennials, 25-year-old to 34-year-old, unemployment is 5.3%. >> when you mention utilities having a drop like that, astounding that could happen in a week where we haven't seen anything spectacular in the bond
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market. in fact, long dated bonds, the yields have come down today. it's hard to put a point on what exactly is happening and what the mind of the market is telling us right now. people are very confused. for the next 13 days, all we'll do is debate this. we won't have any more information to give us about what the fed will do. >> i'm not sure how much of this is about the central bank at all, do you think? >> a little. i think what it's more about is a bunch of investment managers sitting around going, how do i get my 8% all-in yields or all in returns. it's not clear at all. unless they get really good earnings or some back up in the bond yields, they ain't going to get it. that is a big issue for them. >> this week calpers saying as a risk mitigation strategy pulling another $20 billion of its money out of stocks.
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>> guy adami, thank you, sir. have a great weekend. there is much more coming up at 5:00. the "fast money" crew will talk to a top analyst. he thinks tim cook is about to make a change in apple that steve jobs said he would never do. >> commodities round triggering job cuts in energy companies. >> the king of saudi arabia paying a visit stateside today. details of that meeting later. while every business is unique,
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welcome back to mining sectors. morgan brennan joins with us how much more pain we might expect. >> expect more pain. it's coming. mining sector which includes oil and gas as well as coal shed another 9,000 jobs in august. the labor department says that brings total losses up to 90,000 since december. bp, sand rich and energy are a few that announced stateside
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cuts in august. conocophillips eliminated another 1,800 jobs. with u.s. crude prices back down 20% in about three months and the u.s. oil rig count down by 13 this week, many expect more cuts to come. not just in energy. we are now seeing this affect other industries, as well. last month's manufacturing shed 17,000 jobs in a big chunk of that 7,000 came in fabricated metal, which has been impacted by a steep drop in demand for drilling products. also keep in mind, many workers in the oil patch that still do have jobs has had their wages slashed. swiss worldwide resources has seen on average a 15% decline in day rates for contractors. >> morgan, good paying jobs, we'll keep a close eye on it. thank you. >> the unemployment rate did fall 5.1% in august as we added
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173,000 jobs last month. laura, what significance is 5.1%? didn't the labor force precipitation drop last month? >> 5.1% is significant because it actually fell inside the fed's estimate of where the unemployment rate could be around full capacity. the truth is, we still haven't seen wage growth pick up. so i think that those estimates are being called into question. the unemployment rate can go lower before we actually see. >> the average hourly earnings number was okay. we are finally seeing it move stronger in just the last three months or so. >> i was happy it was positive news on the earnings. still year on year, we are only 2.2. we are flat. we haven't seen nearly as much wage growth as in the past. >> the beige book was out
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wednesday did talk about more wage pressures across the fed regions. are you seeing evidence of wage pressure more so than up to this point in the recovery? >> of course there is going to be wage pressure. people are losing sight of this global economy. it's not just low wages because our economy is bad. it's a global economy and jobs can be done overseas. we are competing not against our neighbor but other countries. we have to be realistic of what's going on here. we added over 170,000 jobs in the economy. this wasn't a negative. this is good stuff. it's not as bad as people want to make it out to be. >> i've got a slight issue with this assessment. of course we are competing with people overseas, but the amount of the u.s. economy that's driven by exports or imports is still relatively small. what i am missing here? >> what i would say to you, i staff positions, call centers, accounting departments, legal
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departments, mostly in the midwest. we see companies that will hire people in india, pakistan and call centers overseas, jobs are going over there. it comes down to quality of service versus cost. it may not be perfect outsourcing a job overseas, but it's cost competitive. we have global competition. >> the central question is not is everything perfect but close enough to being on track that the federal reserve should be raising rates right now? >> i think we are nearly there, but begin the recent developments, fall in stock prices, appreciation in dollar, lower energy prices, i think the fed probably wants to wait and see how these shocks play out in the economy. the first time you raise rates in many years, you don't want to be rolling the dice here. >> this is such a done deal to me. >> in december? >> i agree with you. >> i want it to be a done deal.
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i never want to talk about it ever again. my only point on this, if they don't do it now for whatever reason, they are going to -- the perception of them not doing it will be so bad with unemployment at 5.1%. it's a bad perception to be seen as always being dovish. >> absolutely. >> every turn they are dovish. that is the perception right now. >> i think it's more important they get this right. that chair yellen take the right time. that in ten years we look back. >> if we wait two months, will it be that bug? >> it isn't a big deal. >> that is my point. >> thank you for joining us. good to see you. >> thanks. >> the king of saudi arabia is in washington to meet with the president. with oil prices plunging, the conflict in syria heating up and the nuclear deal in iran nearing approval, tensions are high.
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i found her wandering miles from home. when the phone rang at 5am, i knew it was about mom. i see how hard it's been on her at work and i want to help. for the 5 million americans living with alzheimer's, and millions more who feel its effects. let's walk together to make an even bigger impact and end alzheimer's for good. find your walk near you at alz.org/walk. welcome back. there is a look again in the dow and the ride we've been in the last couple of weeks. turmoil in the middle east, sliding oil prices, all that on the agenda between president obama and the new king of saudi arabia. joining us from washington,
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where she attended some of the official events is commodity strategist at rbc capital markets. good to see you again. >> thank you for having me. >> tell us as much as what you observed, took in and came away with from this meeting. >> it's all public politeness. behind the scenes, there are huge foreign policy differences. most notably the iran nuclear deal, concerns over syria and yemen. i was at the economic forum and investor forum. that was reassuring investors saudi arabia could ride this oil decline. >> how much of this is about oil prices and how much is so much more broad at this point with the iran deal, with what's happening with yemen and the power balance in the middle east potentially shifting? >> i think the bilateral discussions between obama and the king are going to focus on the issue of iran, on syria.
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the horrible refugee boats coming out of syria, the situation in yemen. that is a war saudis are actively involved with. u.s. have concerns on the terrorism side of yemen. they have a dual track. they brought their finance minister to talk to investors to reassure everyone that the oil price decline was not going to send the saudi project off the rail. they've dealt with the oil prices before. they can deal with it again. also importantly, that the prices will eventually rebound. they won't be in this environment forever. two sources of things concerning the saidudi leadership. >> the big bump we saw in oil prices and friday and earlier this week, was that a head fake? last week you said you didn't expect them to go up, but they are up substantially. >> you know what's so interesting? you have certain stories that really drove the price up this
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week. i thought it was interesting. the opec story. there was an opec commentary that said opec would consider cutting if russians would join in the cut. that wasn't a new story. when the market is so bearish, people will take that headline and run with it. i think a lot was the news flow. >> what about that relationship with russia? is that the elephant in the room? >> it's interesting. the saudis have gotten warmer relations with russia a little bit. there have been discussions which worried the white house. nuclear cooperation with russia, arms deals with russia. that is something that will be concerning the white house. is saudi looking for a new foreign policy friends that are not the friends washington would like them to have? >> exactly. it brings it back again at this moment when we are looking at these two long-standing
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traditional allies, yet a meeting everyone is describing as tense and difficult. >> absolutely. everybody is being publicly polite, stressing the longevity of this relationship. behind the scenes there is a lot of tension. saudis are alarmed at the idea of iran coming back from the cold, having a new financial windfall they can put behind their foreign policy. obama has to do a lot of work to reassure the saudis he has their interest in heart. >> any talk when iran would come back online. ? we heard from jack lew just because the deal is done doesn't mean the spigots will turn on. they have to be in full combines with the deal. >> just in terms of the type of modification the iranians have to do to be compliant with the deal.
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we don't see it being a million barrels. we think it's 375,000 to 500,000. what is so interesting about the saudi story, they keep emphasizing demand. demand is going to pull prices higher. they do say that we are seeing u.s. production gently rolling. not a big deviation from what they said at the opec meeting. i go back to what if we don't get that demand-driven recovery into the '70s next year? do they reevaluate their policy on production? >> that is the question over all this. thank you. >> thank you. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> thank you, kelly. here is what's happening. in what is considered a surprise move, hungary today announcing it will send buses to take hundreds of migrants to austria's border. now it is up to austria to decide whether they will accept them. >> the world food program reporting funding shortages forced it to slash its aid program.
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1/3 of syrian refugees have been dropped. the cutback comes as scores are making dangerous treks to reach europe. >> vice president joe biden saying his family will decide whether he runs for president. he lost his son to brain cancer three months ago and sources close to the bidens say his wife jill would not stand in the way of her husband's political ambitions. >> the attorney representing a jailed kentucky county clerk kim davis contends that the same-sex marriage licensees issued today are void. davis was arrested yesterday for refusing to issue marriage licensees to gay couples. she remains in jail in contempt of court. >> that is the cnbc news update at this hour. have a great long weekend. >> thank you so much. if the fed does raise rates in september, what does it mean for your portfolio? we'll talk to a top stock picker next.us not compromised this morning in a security breach that didn't happen. wall street. not rattled. at all. no. not at all. not at all. i mean, look at the day.
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>> it's a tough market right now. that jobs number may be getting people nervous. >> dow down 260. >> this is a brutal session in europe today. >> dow jones industrial average down by more than 305 points. >> dow right now down 297 points. >> 332 points. >> down 242. >> now down 214 points. >> down less than 200 points. right at the bell we dropped 273. >> starting to think i should never call the market again. look how we finished the day. the dow down 1.6%. it was down 272 points on the bell there. 1.5% decline on the s&p. 1% decline on the nasdaq and crude down 1.7%.
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tough week for all the major averages. nasdaq gave up 3%. bertha coombs joins us. >> another wild ride. another roller coaster week. today we ended down at the lows of the session just off of that. apple continuing to contribute to that down side move. apple had kind of been broken and broken through technical levels before all of this volatility. basically saw the markets wipe out whatever little gains they got last week on the nasdaq. the large cap nasdaq 100 indexes, they are down more than 10% from recent highs in correction territory. you got among the nasdaq 100 a lot of those stocks, large cap stocks are in bear market territory. nearly half up about 45%. among those is netflix. i look at netflix.
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it embodies the sea change in sentiment. down about 15%, over six straight losing sessions. by comparison, last year in march, netflix fell 11 days in a row, but it lost half that amount. even though netflix shares are not below their 100 day moving average, this is a stock that people are using to sell. they are just not ready to step back in even as it's below $100 here. looking at the nasdaq 100 overall, only 1-10 stocks finished higher for the week. many well off 50%. biotechs down for the fourth week in five are still off about 15% from their july highs. they could see a bounce next week with a biotech conference. there are a few stocks bucking the trend.
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these three, kythera, myriad and medicines are within 5% of their highs. there are a few stocks holding up. >> bertha coombs, thank you. let's get more from robert luna. after looking at some of the winners, the few on the nasdaq, would you double down on those if the fed raises interest rates or are there stocks entirely separate people should be investing in against this back drop? >> i think so. i think this is an environment right now where the whole talk about 0.25% interest rate is a red herring to be honest. the bigger issue is what's going on around the globe and whether that infiltrates the market here. i think what you have to do is look independent of rates being risen right now and take a look at companies, if the market does start to continue to go down, which companies are going to
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stand out, be able to execute away from their sector. names we like right now u-haul. uhal. this is a domestic-based company. regardless of what happens with the economy, people will continue to move and store stuff. the company just reported earnings, 20% above analyst expectations. with all the volatility in the market, this stock is trading 4% off an all-time high. that is a company that gets away from all the problems you can focus on. another name we like is deckers. that stock has been pummeled this year. companies down 30% year-to-date. it's really been trashed. if you look at the company, it's got a strong brand. looking back over the past few years, september to december when people start thinking about the colder weather, that's when you want to own the stock like that. it's only trading 12.5 times
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earnings. this is one that trades at a discount to the market. investors can step into right here. >> quick question. do you think we'll have evidence by the end of this year that active stock picking works or do you think this is still shooting in the dark? we've been hearing about how all the active money wanted a correction, wanted the opportunity to be able to distinguish themselves, getting their opportunity right now. how do you think it will play out by the end of the year? >> i do think it will start to play out. to your point, it's been tough. when you look at the last big market corrections we had. the etf gain wasn't as big as it is right now. i know plenty of active managers trading etfs like they are trading commodities. they cross the moving day average and sell it off. we try to find names like uhaul. these are owned by insider ownership. they are out of the hands of panicky investors.
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you have to do the homework and find the stocks that trade independent of those indexes. if it's a big part of an index and valuations start to slow, if you start to see technicals break down, they will get sold off like everything else. >> thanks. a couple of good ideas there. we'll see how this active stock picking stands out. >> we'll review it. >> you pick stocks. >> no, i don't. i never pick stocks. >> sectors? >> i pick sectors. i believe you can work allocation in your favor. it's really hard to pick individual stocks. >> fair enough. that was robert luna. >> indoor play grounds, movie theaters, mini golf. it may be the future of the automobile dealerships. today's "spark" will take you to the latest concept in auto sales.
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positive after announcing this acquisition then turned lower, closing down about 2.4%. what do you make of all this? >> it's clear a bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush. good has been thinking about going public and some sources said the valuation could have been anywhere from 800 million to $1 billion. there was another company that made it out publically before good, a competitor that does something similar called mobile iron. if you look at what happens to mobile iron shares since its ipo, down about 65%. you look at the comparison. you think do i want to go through something like that? you take down your projection, your valuation and think maybe you should just take your business into a bigger distribution platform, a company like blackberry. what is funny about this is that the two companies had been bitter rivals. they had launched attack against each other and noted that in conference calls and letters today saying we get it, we have a long history. i don't think anyone two years ago would have expected this.
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these were the two companies that got together but it does make sense. >> you have to wonder if it's the first sign of this silicon valley start-up bubble cracking. >> i think you will see a lot of companies wait until after the federal reserve meeting because it's so unpredictable how the market will react to whatever we do get or don't get. evan wants to talk about that. >> wages climbing. as the debate about raising minimum wage continues. small businesses taking unique approaches to raising pay and growing their business. let's get to kate rogers who joins us with how they're coping. >> a common message on main street is that small businesses can't bear the cost of a wage hike that they don't independently implement. a small restaurant in pittsburgh instituted a flat fee of $35,000 a year for its employees this spring. servers and back of the house staff are on an even playing field. they get a stake in the
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restaurant via profit sharing and health insurance. >> a lot of times restaurant employees it's viewed as a job, not a profession or career. people we have here don't think of it like that. this is a career for them. we want to pay salary and offer benefits and health care and things you would normally associate with a real world job. >> workers are gearing up to receive their first quarterly bonuses ever, which is unheard of in the restaurant industry. another small business called earth friendly products which is a green cleaning product company in illinois paid its workers $17 an hour and gives bonuses to those who drive green vehicles, install solar panels on their roof and move closer to the office to cut down on their commutes. the ceo says the company has zero voluntary turnover. as its wage debate rages on, small companies are tackling the issue to attract and retain those quality workers. >> a small window on what's working here.
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it's a tough week for markets. despite the sell-off there were standout winners this week. let's get to dominic chu with the recap. >> week-to-date we know there's been a lot of volatility. look at some of the winners and there's a couple of different themes playing out. a couple of stocks had decent near-term and medium-term momentum. take a couple of names like cablevision systems. the single best-performing stock in the s&p 500, up about 9% this week. that is still positive year-to-date, as well. l brands catching a bit of a bid up 8% this week helped by earnings reports. keurig green mountain and micron shares, well known names in the s&p 500 on consumer products and technology up 8% and 5%
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respectively. these two stocks have been beaten down badly over the course of the past year-to-date and 12-month period, especially with keurig and green mountain. micron shares down about 50% plus from their month to date and week to date winners it's important to figure out whether or not some of these could be fundamental buying opportunities or whether short covering is part of the overall story, kelly. back over to you guys. >> dom, you this. it's a great point. breaking news in the energy industry to get to. sue herera, what's happening? >> we have emra to acquire tico energy. a $10.4 billion transaction that does include debt in that $10.4 billion price tag. and don was just telling me that teco had said earlier this year it was going to explore strategic options and this is the result of their exploring that. earnings per share accretion expected in the full year of operations, growing to more than 10% by the third full year. upon closing, this means emera
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will have approximately $20 billion in assets. that would put it at a top 20 north american regulated utility. so once again emera to acquire teco energy. $10.4 billion transaction. part of that $10.4 billion does include some debt, though, kelly. back to you. >> all right. not a bad-size deal for now, sue. thank you. as auto sales surge, auto dealerships are getting bigger than ever. take a look at this lexus dealership. it's outside chicago. the facility is 10 acres, 170,000 square feet, and this is the right footage. that's a putting green. it's filled with luxury amenities like that. the rise of so-called mcdealerships is the subject of today's spark. and i'm joined by bob ohman who owns lexus of illinois. in july you opened the biggest lexus dealership in the country? >> yes. it was july 4th. >> july 4th. independence day. where did you get the capital? why do you need a facility this big? and what's with all the
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amenities? >> well, i've been an automobile dealer since 1955. i started selling cars for the ford dealer in lafayette, indiana. so now i've got 29 dealerships. that's where i got the capital. so it's been pretty good for me. >> what we're struck by is the kind of amenities you have here, bob. was it all your idea to come up with some of this? the salon, the movie theater, the massage chairs, the wi-fi. or is this something that you're now starting to see across all different kinds of dealerships? >> well, i opened up a new toyota dealership two years ago in lafayette, indiana. i picked up toyota in 1969. so i've had toyota since the beginning. they didn't even know what a toyota was in lafayette, indiana. at that time. and so now i've got three toyota stores and two lexus stores and
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24 other stores. but toyota was my first store. and we had some amenities like this in the toyota store in lafayette as well. but toyota brought me where i am today. >> okay. >> so i thought i owed it to toyota and to lexus. of course lexus is toyota. and i opened it to that company to do the best for them because they did excellent for me. >> kayla? >> bob, this is kayla tauschi. i'm just wondering, the more time your customers spend putting or watching a movie, the less time they're looking at your cars. how do you keep them focused on the product you're trying to sell? >> well, first we sell them the car. we just show them the amenities. we've got a map we give them when they come in of all the amenities. >> all this could be yours. >> yeah. and then we sell them the car.
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and then we let them play with the amenities. but the thing is with an automobile dealer the thing that really bothers the customer when they come in for service, especially for service, the car is not done on time. i mean, it's done on time but they have to wait for the car normally. >> yeah. >> now, we've got loaners too. but they wait for the car. that's their biggest gripe for me, is waiting for the car for service. so when they come in now, we have 42 service bays here too. and when they come in now, we give them a little thing like they get in the restaurant and we'll call you when your car's done. okay, their car's done and we call them. they say, well, we'll be there in about half an hour. we're watching a golf game on tv right now. >> well, bob, it's a brilliant move. and yeah, it's just, again, it feels like we're looking at maybe a glimpse into i don't know what. >> the future.
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that's what you're trying to say. the future. >> we'll leave it right there. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. and i watch your show almost every day. but wasn't too good today. i didn't like it too good. >> why not? >> because i lost a little money today. >> oh, yeah. our apologies on that. we hope it doesn't affect the quality of the movies at the dealership. please come back and join us, let us know how it's all going. >> okay. well, the movies now, we've got -- we've got 20-minute movies and they're comedy movies. >> all right. >> eight-hour tape. so it just keeps going and going and going. and they're the funniest thing. i love them. i watch them. >> bob, thank you so much. we -- i love you. i am going -- we've got to go to arlington heights. >> by the way, you're a big fan of the driverless cars. you're going to put bob out of business if you're not careful.
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>> no way. somebody's got to sell those cars. bob roarman, love it. much more on the spark. cnbc.com/thespark. it was a wild week for both chinese and u.s. markets. up next, we'll look at whether volatility continues on tuesday once both markets open again after national holidays. excuse me. we're back in two. [ male announcer ] we know they're out there.
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welcome back. what a week that we're closing out here. and thursday, friday we had chinese markets closed. they've been pushing us around lately, guys. should we be concerned when they reopen next week? >> yes. only insofar as the markets right now are focusing on any bit of bad news to kind of play around with. i hope there is a little bad news. maybe i can pick up some stocks cheap. i'm still looking for bargains. >> fair enough. >> why not? >> kayla. >> we got a little bit of a glimpse how bad china is in germany's factory orders today. overseas orders down 9 1/2%. i think the trend is going to continue. it's just how bad you're willing to make it out to be. >> yeah. >> have fun this weekend in arlington heights. >> i know. >> when are we all going? a field trip. >> you're going to get us a private plane, we're going to fly out there, surprise bob. >> we've got to get bob on the show, full hour. evan, you might be out of a job. >> that's okay. i'd give up my seat for bob. >> guys, thank you so much for
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joining me today. have a great long weekend. kayla, a great trip as well. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins with melissa lee and the whole gang and a lot of discussion about apple too. that's all coming up in just a few seconds. again, have a great weekend, everybody. we'll see you right back here on tuesday. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk are steve grasso, david seaburg, brian kelly and guy adami. the surprising sector that could rally if the fed hikes rates. ceo tim cook in the spotlight next week for apple's big event. one analyst says he's about to do something he promised he'd never do. we'll explain this later this hour. but we start off with our top story tonight, that is the stock market getting slammed again. the dow and s&p closing back in correction territory. the dow losing about 270 points. all three indices down about 3% for the week. if we are to take solace, though, in today's action, guy adami, it would be that we finish well off of our session lows. >> what, about ten s&p handles or so.
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