tv Options Action CNBC September 5, 2015 6:00am-6:31am EDT
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>> we are live at the nasdaq markets. look who is joining us this half hour. guy. welcome to the desk. >> this is my second go around. >> while they're getting ready, here's what's coming up. >> you are not aloenl. but we have a way to protect your portfolio for almost nothing. we'll show you how. that can mean opportunity for one hot stock. we'll still you what it is and how you can profit and it's the one thing investors need to hear at next week's big apple event.
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>> you like your mcintosh better than me. >> no, not that, hal. but it is something that can move the stock. we'll tell you what it is. the action begins right now. here's the question on a lot of trader's minds dan, what do you think? >> i think you have to go back and look at that mini flash crash when we opened in a panic and what performed well and what was a blood letting? when you think of a stock like home depot or starbucks these were companies or stocks that made all time highs. okay. they opened down 20%. they spent some time at these levels. they had already been trending much lower. to me, it's stocks like home depot, i want to keep an eye on.
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>> there wasn't enough volume. there hasn't been a lot of liquidity and violent moves. it's close to the all time highs. here's the question. if you have a stable investment. it doesn't move around. once it whip sells, you think, i want a higher rate of return. >> i would tame umbridge. i thought it made sense. i agree a name like home depot we'll see what happens if and when we get there. i'll say this, though, home depot is 5% off it's all time
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high. i think the world sets up despite the market. >> home depot is an interesting cross section. a lot of people like the home builder in the housing seconder. >> it's a stock most closely in the economy, all of a sudden, this is the biggest stock in the entire market. it did get disconnected from the market, making new highs and also the positive sentiments. these stocks pose risks. that's what happened last monday. ife go back and brake the lows, these stocks will go back to the levels they opened on that monday morning. >> it's a really important point. >> we have a lot of hottest sectors in real estate right now getting the pretty heavy levels at this point. you take a look at bay area real estate. my hometown of austin.
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these are city, new york city is obviously another one. these are the kind of things that should get people a little concerned. you want to race out and buy another apartment right here at the current valuations? you probably don't. if you don't feel that way about apartment, you probably don't feel that way about home depot other. >> starbucs is down % from the all time highs a month ago here. it is in a very, very steady downtrend. if you look at the chart. we have. that that's the one year. it's been a series of lower lows and higher highs. the circle is above the 200 day moving average. 200 bucks. that's the level it opened on. i don't know how much it traded volume wise. so today when the stock was 54.5 i looked out at the october expiration. you can buy the october, 47.5 put-spread for $1. 52 puts for $1.50. telling the october half-put at
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50 cents, that cost you a dollar. >> that is your mask risk. i think stocks like this will go back to the levels on august 24th. >> where is the stockmarket? market is doing well, consumer confidence will follow. i believe that with all my heart. >> that said, within they get scared, guess what they don't do. they don't spend. one of the things they will ket back on is expensive drinks like starbucks. i know what dan is saying about the marks, retesting that level. despite heightened volatility. >> i had a hard time believeing that anybody is going to stop going. what i do believe they might stop doing is buying the stock. at its current evaluation you
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picked interesting prices here to me that makes a more interesting point of stocks. one last point about heightened volatility. "options action" prices are elevated here. you want to look to offset from that decay. >> all right. moving on. consumers should be feeling some relief at the pump. the new york stock exchange is what you can exchange, jackie. >> reporter: consumers are going to get a break. there are millions of them hitting the road this weekend. actually the lowest gas prices this holiday since 2004. the national average for a gallon of regular gas $2.42. that's down a dollar from a year ago. the reason for these gas price, refinery assets, they're working themselves out. also, maintenance is slowing down. also the time the fall is when the blend of gas changes
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finally, prices down 20% in three months, dragging gas prices down. aaa thinks that prices could go down to $2 bucks by the end of the year. there are those skeptics out there. they say as crude goes back over $50, pump prices will follow. mellissa. >> jackie deangelis, our thanks to you. so seasonally it's not a great time we had an analyst on. you had a significant dropoff in a lot of these refiners. to me, maybe the plume is in fact off the rose i think tessora needs to cap cure $95 and v valero needs to be from where they are now. i believe the obx went from 50
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to 60 over the last two day, crude oil was significantly lower. >> the street haid hate the refiners. it's about half the valuation of the broad market. when you see things really cheap. stocks that have ludicrously high dividends. they tell you they don't think it will last t. spreads will come in. the refiners won't be making as much money as they are right now. >> if consumers have more money in their pockets, it's retailers, it's discretionary. >> it's a die lock for years. it doesn't hold up right now. we haven't seen it we were told a year ago so lower for longer this is stuff the guy is hitting on. the longer that crude stays in this level. as it goes back to 40, i think it's a bad thing for the economy. it's like the ten-year yield. >> i think you play this from
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the retail guys are going to continue to do what they have been doing. they will probably not change their behavior over the course of the next six months. i don't think you bet for a big rebound with big equities here. i think you play for these sideways and look for more attractive levels. i'm looking at darden. i think it's one of the cheaper on the casual doing side. i'm not interested in buying this stock or any other. one of the things you can look to do is sell the october 62-and-a-half put. you will collect about 1.6% of the strike price. if the stock comes in, you will be buying at a more attractive level. frankly, we will not see stocks take a high rebound. >> the guy who is not buying expensive drinks probably won't want endless prices either. >> it's interesting, darden had a uj hoo this ford said, wait
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that won't happen. you seen the pullback. maybe you are getting paid enough to sell these puts. i hope you are i think you will see the levels on the downside here's a company mike said is not expensive. it held the trade line so make actually placing a limit order almost 10% below the stock. i like the trader. >> how much are you getting paid to answer this question? just under 14% annualized. it's probably a level where you want to do it. >> got a question out there? send us a tweet. we might read it later in the show. there is only one place to go, the "options action."cnbc.com. we have exclusive trades. so what more could you possibly want? check it out. here's what's coming up next. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.
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wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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>> take at look at that. the dow and the mark closing down more than 3.5% what are you looking at? >> listen, when we talk about index, etf protection often teams the premium and the spy, they're very cheap. they look very cheap. they don't have the idiosyncratic loss of a single stock. a lot of times they look cheap. after he had a paul strike we had, we will look at trade structures to mitigate that decay we all know what it looks like from 2012. it was straight up. we had minimal pull b.c.s, right here, we just came down. we almost had a batch low.
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i suspect as we were talking about the s&p which is now only 3% off last monday, august 24th, the low, it will go down and break. it could get ugly. some of the stocks, the starbucks and home depots, i think it has a potential to be down from the highs a couple months ago. i want to target that level. this is that move in "options action" prices, implied volatility. making it difficult to go out and boy put "options action." we want to look for things to sell against it. to so here's the trade i was looking at the spy at october x expiration. >> that would be below last week's lows and october's lows. i want to find a range around 160. so when the spy was 1 fae.
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you could buy the october puts and sell two of the 170s at $1r50i6r7b9 money. >> you would put the stock. below 160. >> you know, this is the kind of thing you want to do when volatility gets high, "options action" premiums get high, taking advantage of strategic levels. one of the other things you can do is you can put that put spread on one up and look for opportunities as the market declines to sell some more downside puts, to take in additional premium if you are uneasy about that downside level
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678 bear in mind they will not be down 160. >> when i was in college in the ''80s, i was in a grad school class, i remember what it felt like, this is well over my head. you had mario draghi jawboneing about the qe. it would have been up 100 points on something like that. the dance point, it does feel a little different 18 twevent, that october 4th low to me is in the crosshairs. it probably comes in around 1570ish. >> this is so far out of the money this is not trade. what i've done by buying one of the 180s and selling two of the 170s, define a range where i
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have not paid any premium. if we get a move back to 1,800, this will be a profitable trade quickly, it's more a trade of the environment. >> who will be twitter's next ceo? we'll tell you which one of those guys can be better for the stock when "options action" returns. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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>> we are back on options action. we take a look back on trades to see if there is a way to make more money. a couple weeks back, dan made a bullish bet on twitter. take a listen. >> you have the stock amazingly oversold. did you look out to january expiration, where the stock was 27 today the january 20-40 call spread cost $1.80. >> dan what are you doing with the trade? everyone said labor day, here we are. >> i think the street will have to be happy about that. it's an amazing product.
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you were talking about what assets are 23409 being monetized. sales are growing. i think they do have some of the right people in place. so if that is the ceo or the combination and they change that board up. i think ultimately this is the thing that works. i like this trade. you stick with it. you have a few months for this all to work out. so i'm staying put. >> you think when jack dorsey is famed ceo the stock will move higher? >> i don't think that will be the knee jerk. i think you will get a move north of $40. this reminds me of facebook when we are calling for zuckerberg's head, now, five years after the fact, he is one of the top ceos out there i think twitter is too valuable a property. somebody will figure this out. we will look pack six months ago. >> two weeks ago, mike made a
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gutsy call on apple. after that flash crash, the stock did rally. >> aam short that put. actually, you have a lot better price when you sold that put than i do those things went to $6 bucks the very next day. >> this is a level of stock, it's compelling. this is a trade you could still do if you have it yet. >> i think it will be a real snoozeer. i think you can sell "options action" premium to add some yields. if i was long stock, i would be looking to sell long stocks against it. the downside, i want to be very careful this stock has 100 all over it. >> i would own 92, though. if you own the stock and sell upside calls, that position is very equivalent to the one i'm in. >> 92 was a low print that day.
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103-and-a-half is where it's held. dan has been spot on on this thing. if china was your bull piece on the way up, you can't discount it. >> even though dan cook e-mailed and said everything is all good. >> you know what to me sub prime is staying it smacked bernanke. >> when he gets there, all is well? >> coming up next, your tweets and the final call from the "options action" bids. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.
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there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. checking out the listing on zillyeah, i like it. this place has a great backyard. i can't believe we're finally doing this. all of this... stacey, benjamin... this is daniel. you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen. zillow.
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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. >> time for a tweet. this one says i'm thinking of the ibwm, 108 puts. what's your opinion, mike? >> i would have to say the same thing dan was saying, "options action" are pretty elevated.
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up 30%. you might want to consider a spread. if you don't, make sure you lag into a spread very quickly if we get a move to the downside. >> i hope you think of buying we will test the 103-and-a-half t. russell led the s&p. i think it's headed for 103-and-a-half. >> i think you have to be careful. i don't like the s&p biotech index. those two have traded in lockstep in the last couple of months. >> how about going long on ali baba? dan, what do you think? >> it's interesting, we know the stock is down 40% on the year, down from last year it's in uncharted territory. i suspect it will get a bit sloppier i think it's important to remember, though these guys are tied. everything that's fantastic on a road show, it's really bad.
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you define a range. >> i was going to say, that's an extraordinarily interesting strategy. is there a name for it? >> in terms of ali baba, though, it will be held hostage. >> you saw a few minutes onia hook, you wonder on a friday before labor day, what does it all mean? i know they addressed it. it just smells funny to me. >> you will sit here, only 5% out of the money. >> that doesn't seem like there is much room for error there. >> it is time for the final call before labor day weekend. guy adami, what do you say? >> i loved it. >> you do? >> monday a holiday. we could come back tuesday the s&p could be literally 100 points, chine could cut once again. volatility, folks, is here to stay. i continue to take my queues from the commodity market. >> give yourself some raleigh if
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you will sell downside puts. >> starbucks sell rally. >> our time has expired. check out the website. another e otherwise have a wonderful labor day weekend. "mad money" with jim cramer starts at the top of the hour. >> announcer: this is a paid presentation for p90, brought to you by beachbody. we all reach a point when we look in the mirror and want to change. >> i want to get rid of this. i want more definition in my back. >> this needs to be gone. i want to be able to wear a bikini, walk down the beach, and feel completely great and comfortable in my own skin. and i finally decided that's it. >> announcer: but lately it seems like fitness has gotten hard, extreme, and downright painful. >> aah! >> at my age, they're just -- they're just too hard on my joints. my hips hurt. >> well, i've tried an intense program before, and it was, whew, jura
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