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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 11, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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>> could be energy. geez. evan, we'll get an update on your energy names in a bit. in the meantime have a great weekend, everybody, and we'll see you next week. mike san toli evan newmark. that does it for thus week on "closing bell." we're going to hand it over to "fast money" which begins right now. the one moment really that could make or break your portfolio for the rest of the year. will the fed hike or will they not?
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next week. guy adami what is the first thing you do monday morning with so much uncertainty into this meeting -- >> first of all welcome good to have you here on friday. i think they absolutely hike. i think they need to hike. in order to get back any semblance of credibility they want to have they have to hike. i think everything's 234 place for them to hike. they can't use that as an excuse. i think in a perverse way it will be bullish for the market. you can see equities rally on the back of a fed rate hike that they absolutely should do. >> what if they don't? >> i think if they don't that shows fear. it means they blink and the market goes down. >> i know you agree. this has been your point. >> 100%. i agree 100% with what guy just said. the fact is the fed needs to rip the band-aid off. they need to make a move do it next week in my opinion and i think the market actually sells off initially and then it rallies. if they don't, again, just like guy said, we're going to have a sell-off. >> do you think it's a good sign that quietly we had the best week for the dow since march
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best week since july? >> it's not a surprise when you consider where we were on equity sentiment. 45 billion in the last four weeks in equities. the best inflows. ten straight weeks which is the best we've seen in four years into bond funds. i don't agree with guy that the fed has no credibility here and i don't agree with david it would be ripping the band-aid off. this is not ripping the band-aid off. ripping the band-aid off would have been a year ago or a year and a half ago but to what these guys are saying perversely this is a time they're going to see commodities and things that may be dollar sensitive toupt side which should be happening if we're in a fed tightening cycle that are going to rally. i'm an e.m. guy pi i e.m. has priced in this moment forever and i think if you're looking for a bottom in e.m. it's not going to be on that day but it's going to be somewhere in the next few weeks because sentiment if they hike has already reached essentially lows as if the -- >> b.k. i don't know if it's priced into the dollar. that could be the big risk. >> there's a lot of cross-currents when it comes to the dollar. right? but tim's point about the market has already done a lot of the
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work for the fed. we already have tighter financial conditions. you've probably seen a good portion of what the market might do. what's going to happen on thursday might be very count counterintuitive. secondarily, before thursday comes you have a japanese bank of japan meeting. if they happen to ease they get a rising dollar like you were talking about and that could complicate the issue. >> you really think they're going to move -- >> i think they will hint at it and that will be enough for the market. >> and will that hurt the equity market rally? the strong dollar -- >> massive headwinds. i don't think it's going to have an impact from the standpoint of their decision. i think they're actually going to move it next week and again my stance is the market's going to rally. >> really quickly the dollar today went through the 200-day moving average. the last time it did that was on august 24th. and chaos. and before that it hadn't done that in a year. so the dollar is not strengthening even on the eve. and i think by the way we are not consensus here on this desk. i think if you look at the expectations for the fed -- >> but you seem to all agree that we're not scared of the
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fed. no? >> i'm not scared of the fed but -- >> scared of indecision. >> what is the fed scared of is i think really why they're not going and i think they're concerned about liquidity. >> but dave, are you saying the market's going to rally to new highs or we're just going to get a relief rally? >> relief rally p i think a lot of this is priced in but in general i think people fear the worst, they're fearing we're going to move and the market's going to sell-o off. it's not going to happen. when they move you may get a knee-jerk reaction to the down side then they're goingly and we'll move i don't think we get new highs but we do rally. >> it's a good debate and much more next week. and also much more on how to protect your portfolio ahead of the big fed decision later this hour on "options action." but we have got to talk twitter because shareholder and billionaire chris saka going on a major tweet storm rant today complaining about the company's inability to pick a ceo. julia boorstin is in l.a. with the details. i love how it's all playing out on twitter, julia. >> of course. very meta. twitter investor on twitter. chris saka is pressuring twitter's board to put in
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founder and ceo jack dorsey as permanent ceo. he wants it asap. sake sack ka tweeting for months. he says enough is enough. they are running a "process" yet there is only one person fit to run this company. jack. what sacca's effectively asking here is he's asking the board to reverse the statement it made in june saying they'd only consider candidates who are in a position to make a full-time commitment to twitter. the issue is that jack dorsey has said he's committed to remaining ceo of square, which is heading to an ipo which could be as soon as the fourth quarter. what sacca's saying is the fact that he'd be running two companies is irrelevant. he tweets "he has the full support of the key players at twitter and its largest investors." he goes on to tweet that the market knows that jack has such strong teams at both square and twitter that he could run both companies. this is settled. but it does not seem to be settled for twitter, which has not responded to repeated request for comment since sacca went on this tweet storm. and square has also not
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responded to request for comment about whether its board would sign off on having a ceo with another full-time job. square's pr team just said no comment. and of course as square markets to investors they may not be too happy about their question splitting that time between the two companies as well. sara? >> yeah, either way it sounds like they're getting more and more pressure to make a decision. julia, thank you. let's trade twitter. tim, you on twitter. >> i bought it about ten days ago and my view is from the price action perspective i kind of feel like we have tested some extremely bad news here. does the company need a ceo who's focused on only one company? i think absolutely. this isn't an indictment of dorsey. this is really i think you need a guyish and and i think the fact the search is take a longer time than expected is not necessarily a disaster. so when i look at the company i look at the price action i look at the valuation, not cheap, but i look at the monetization trends for these guys their financial result in the second quarter were better than expected. the big downer for the stock was the conference call where management was very dour, very
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almost seemingly uncertain and i think people characterize that as a fiasco but in terms of what the company seems to be doing to me the bar is so low in terms of what they have to do on the playing field i think it's an interesting time. risk-reward, you're long the stock. >> it has been more than three months, dave seaburg, since the company started looking and the stock is down more than 20%, hovering around its ipo price. >> i agree there's a trade here from the standpoint of an announcen't but i've got to tell you it's taken a long time and confidence is really weighing on investors. look at the story and say jack son is not the only person out there that's capable of running this company. that's a ridiculous statement for them to make. i mean, the fact is they can't find anybody to run the company who's willing to take a shot. i look at it and say this company is really run terribly. they have to figure out how to fix it quickly because once they start to lose patience or confidence of the people using the product they are gone forever. so great brand. again, i think you get a trade here but it's not something i'd be buying. >> guy, can you buy this stock without its ceo certainty? >> i agree with tim. there's a tradable move to the up side but david's been on
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this. i don't expect you to know this but he's been negative on the stock for quite some time and he's been right to be negative. i don't know if we're going to test that august 24th low of 21 bucks. i doubt we will. but i think there might be another move down to 24 1/2, 25. i think this is amazingly fixable company. i think the property is way too valuable. i also think it's where facebook was five or six years ago where everybody was calling for zuckerberg's head but it's taken a lot longer than it should. it's fixable but it's not buyable right here. >> you think it's going to go below the ipo price. >> 24 1/2 is your level. >> prefer your cup of coffee with a siefd piping hot chicken noodle soup? now you can have both with the launch of campbell's soup k-packs. we'll tell you what the unlikely pairing could mean for beaten down shares of keurig green mountain. plus one biotech player poised to surge in a key conference next week. we'll tell you the name of that stock and how you can get in on the action. then later the moment you've all been waiting for. brand new segment we're calling "fast under five."
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monster beverage shares have focused today. they've announced a new $500 million share repurchase program. the new program replaces the $200 million purchase program that had no authorization left. this is the reiteration of their commitment for shareholders. the shares are not moving very much. very light volume. 22,000 shares, sara but again for you guys some context the shares are already up about 23% year to date and 46% over the last 12 months. so certainly sara monster beverage an outperformer in the stock market given what's been happening in current conditions, czar. back over to you. >> and a real outperformer in consumer staples. thank you very much dom chu. guy, this has been a moon shot. >> has been a moon shot but it's also sold off as b.k. just pointed out to me with his little b.k. machine t. it is holding the 200-day moving average it is rich on valuation. but against 130 or so you could probably play it from the long side next week. >> or even coca-cola. and speaking of investments in the beverage space. keurig green mountain kicking
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off our top trades tonight. two years after announcing a partnership with campbell's soup keurig is rolling out pods that will allow coffee lovers to whip up a bowl of hot soup in their keurig machines. this marking its first move beyond beverages. i don't know how it's going to taste. but what does it mean for the stock? >> chicken soup's always very healing. and this company's been apparently -- >> not with coffee. >> green mountain first of all is 20% off the bottom. what does that mean? it means it was way oversold. does it mean that the company is ready to go back up to even 100 bucks where it's fallen from 125 all the the way down to 123450 what's wrong i? don't think it's structural. i think this company is trying very hard to improve on the brewery side but they've got a number of different catalysts which include the coke relationship, the keurig which people are betting against. it gets them into more than just coffee. it gets them into the carbonated beverage area which i think is something even coke is trying to do. i think the company at this point valuationwise is interesting. >> one of the worst performers of 2015. >> it's been a disaster. >> it's had a number of bad
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quarters. does this get you excited? >> for a trade maybe because it gives a catalyst and the only reason why is it looks like it's filling the gap from that down. from 70 down to here. you probably have between 60 and 70 for a trade. the problem they have in the longer run is they're not selling. they don't care if you put campbell the soup in it, coffee, hot chocolate or strawberry quik like tim likes. >> can't get enough. >> it's not selling. for me it's a trade at best. >> there's the cold machine a little bit later -- >> which is even better for strawberry quik. >> love it. >> cocoa puffs too. >> huge day for shake shack. that stock soaring more than 11% despite the fact that cowan initiated the name with a market perform and a $42 price target. that's 35% lower where the stock is currently trading. and we should note in the past month shake shack has seen a huge move lower, down more than 21%. dave seaburg, this momentum stock lost a lot of air.
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>> look, andrew charles is our analyst. he initiated this morning. he's a phenomenal analyst and he gets the joke here. this stock should be sold here aggressively. we talked about this even weeks ago. you know, right after they issued some shares. the fact is they're comping basically 17 stores. their goal is to go to 450 stores. when you look at the stores they're comping they're all new york city-based stores. they're cherry-picking locations outside of new york city to put in different stores. they went to the michigan mile in chicago, they went to vegas. those stores they've cherry picked as the best locations outside of new york are doing roughly 50% of what the new york stores are doing. when you think about the growth of this story, to get to the 450 is going to take them a long time. there's a long runway to get there. but they're not in new york city-based stores. they're outside the city. this stock is so overvalued it's ridiculous. so if you own it i'd be selling is it here. look, we have a $42 price target on it which isn't much of a down side from the 51, 52 where it
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closed. >> short covering rally it is a very expensive stock. mcdonald's stubbornly is holding on, had a big day today, traded 97 bucks. it's got to get above i think tim would agree with this for the last three years we have failed at 102 three times, one time each year, seemingly again this year. but it still hangs in there which leads me to believe maybe this all-day breakfast thing which i am a proponent of, by the way, will catch on at mcdonald's. >> as a consumer or -- >> hell, yeah. >> i think that the momentum in the stocks we just talk about from a trading perspective was totally derailed by august 24th. it was trading at those highs. now that we can create our own taste and the kiosks at mcdonald's allow us to eat better, i think the stock's got a lot 6 room to run. very significant opportunities for these guys. >> it has been an outperformer lately. we're going to move on, talk biotech. a massive infectious disease conference kick off last week in san diego and the company's reporting could see huge swings on the superbug data they released. so which stocks do you want to be watching into this key event?
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it is time for some stock therapy with our very own resident stock therapist. that would be meg tirrell. what should we watch, meg? >> had this big infectious disease conference kicks off on the 17th in san diego. it's called icac. of course antibiotics are in huge need right now because we're getting all these superbugs. these are bacteria that are becoming resistant to available drugs. and so that's bringing in these antibiotics makers into focus. and two weeks ago we talked about a company called tetraphase. we were highlighting their fades 3 trial. earlier this week that phase 3 trial unexpectedly read out very negatively and as you can see there the stock just completely blew up, losing most of its value in one day. that was very unexpected. a lot of people were expecting because they'd already seen a positive phase 3 readout they'd have a positive result. they didn't. a lot of that negativity and concern went over into other companies working in antibiotics including a stock known as sempra. another company working in the space though not quite on the same infections, they're working on bacterial pneumonia. they also have a phase 3 trial that's expected to read out in
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the next month and a half. in bacterial pneumonia. i was talking with baird. he says it's a similar situation. that's brian scorny over at baird. because they already had a positive phase 3 trial r5edout. expectations are for this to be positive as well. he puts the up side here 15% to 30% potentially for the stock if this trial is positive. but just like tetraphase, because it's not expected to fail, if it does unexpectedly fail, maybe down side is 65%. and because friday is options day. i was just talking with your options guru dan nathan downstairs, he says the options are pricing in between now and mid october a move of about 20% in either direction. this for sempra, another maker of antibiotics. >> nice plug for "options action." meg tirrell. biotech in general had a pretty good week. it resumed sort of a leadership position this week. right? >> folks were nervous for a little while. but the proponents of biotech are pulling through, i guess. >> meg tirrell, thanks very much. our stock therapist. let's trade it here on the desk. dave seaburg? >> biotech in general, i gravitate toward the larger cap names the names that are showing
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real earnings growth and returning cash to shareholders. the technology is there still. there's no question this growth is going to continue in biotech but it's going extremely concentrated. it's going to be the players that absolutely have the ability to show value. and i look at the larger names like the celgenes of the world, the amgens of the world, the bigger players i'd stay with. >> how about gilead? fresh talk of another buyout. >> we talked earlier this week about the fact that stock had a couple of days where you couldn't put your finger on what's going on. i think something is going on where there's smoke there's fire. the last quarter for gilead was ridiculously good. stock performance never really is commensurate with the reports they put forth. i think this stock is cheap. i think gilead's going higher from here. >> the other part of this whole space is the pharma side of it and a lot of these guys also have fantastic pipelines that should get them some of the growth but someone like merck who's been thrown out because i think of some of the exposure to some of the pipeline that's still in question valuation dividend has not caught up from the fall from august 24th. take a look at the pharma.
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>> good point. coming up an unlikely safety trade in the fed starts hiking rates. it just might shock you. we're going to name some names for you next. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> these prices are insane! >> they sure are, eddie. because we have four stocks under five bucks that could soon double. plus shares of apple are doing something they haven't done in a long while. and it's setting up for a great trade tonight. we'll tell you what that is and how you can profit. later in the hour. nd a juice ba. nd a juice ba. because they're getting comcast business internet. comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. and it takes- done. - about an hour. get reliable internet that's up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. call 800-501-6000 to switch today. perks are nice. but the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. comcast business. built for business.
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big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.
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gear up for great. governor rick perry has suspended his presidential campaign. in essence, he's dropping out. although formally not doing so. but effectively, rick perry has dropped out of the campaign. he's making these remarks at a gathering in st. louis, missouri right now, also adding that they have a tremendous field. the best in a generation. he steps aside knowing the party's in good hands, sara, so a very big development. the first gop candidate to drop out of the race, sara. back to you. >> thank you for the update. dom chu. short on cash? well, this is the segment for
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you. time for "fast under five" where we highlight four stocks under $5 that are on the traders' radar. let's kick it off with you, tim. >> avon. which is a name i talked about on the show when it was not in the $5 club. to the extent everybody knows there's been fx pressures you tell me we've talked about the dollar tonight i think a lot of that starts to ease. we know emerging is broken. we know emerging operations are broken. there's a couple things. valuationwise if you want to buy growth in the e.m. consumer at nine times 2016 which i think is conservative this is ridiculously cheap at this point. it could also be a takeout play. it could also be a company that we start to see them get north america which is still where a lot of the core revenues come from better. so avon, take a look at this thing. it's been priced as if it's going out of business. it's not. and higher margin is on its way. >> this is a controversial call because the "wall street journal" had a report yesterday that some private equity were going to come in -- >> down 16% today. >> then it went down yesterday, went down again today. can't get any love, david. >> i like it, though. i like avon for a trade. i mentioned that to tim earlier.
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for a takeout trade i do like it. >> what's your top trade? >> arena pharmaceuticals. arna. about $2.80. and i look at the stock and it's an obesity play essentially but they've got a really deep pipeline. to tim's point earlier when we were talking about biotech, everybody knows what's going on in biotech, the consolidation is fierce. people are looking for pipeline. this is a name that i think somebody could look at and ping a pipeline for a relatively cheap valuation. i'm a buyer at $2.80. >> b.k., what's your name? >> for me it's nova gold. ng. this is just a way to play gold here. if you look at just in general what's going on we talk every single night about currency devaluations, all of these central banks doing things around the world, everybody can't devalue at the same time. and so gold becomes your play on this. nova gold. bouncing above $3. lower -- i'm sorry, higher lows looking like it wants to break out with gold. >> gold has seen three weekly losses. have you been catching a bid on all this -- >> well, i would tell you yes except for you would think with the strong dollar gold would be
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much lower and it's not. >> guy, your name. >> geron, dependi ining how yout to pronounce it. cancer play. market cap of $520 million. they have about 180 million or so in cash or cash equivalent. pretty binary play. but you know what? things line up well for these guys. they have a collaboration with a company called jansen and it goes from a $3.50 stock to an $8 stock. again, binary but if you want to play at the $100 table gern will get you done, sister. >> that was a good segment, guys. time for the final trade. tim. >> today ace terribly sad day and a day for reflection. never forget. financials next week. >> seaburg. >> final trade would be yahoo!. good chance you can get a trade here. maybe a couple bucks. i think the management basically makes a decision. legal counsel. and they try to get this done and force the government to make a decision. >> spinoff tax-free. >> the spinoff. >> b.k. >> for me it's oil. i bought some oil today. i'm watching that going into next week. goldman came out with $20 call
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today although that wasn't their full note but even still oil didn't break yesterday's low. very bullish. >> guy. >> sara, great having you here. well done. enjoy "options action." must watch. gold, watching gold. some funky things are going to happen next week with the fed. gold's on my radar screen. >> that does it for us here on "fast" but you can catch more "fast" monday 5:00 p.m. eastern. "options action" begins right after this. diabetes, steady is exciting. only glucerna has carbsteady, clinically proven to help minimize blood sugar spikes. so you stay steady ahead.
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we are live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's sometimes square. the guys are getting ready behind me. while they're doing that here's what's coming up. >> who wants a stylus? >> maybe more people than you think. and it could have apple setting up for an amazing trade. we'll explain. plus there's one airline that could make you a lot of money. and here's a hint. ♪ delta ♪ delta airlines we'll explain. and did this guy just reveal something big about tesla? >> i try to do useful things. >> reporter: and it could mean big things for tesla. the action begins right now.

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