time to buy gopro and why a company out there might be looking to buy gopro as in acquisition. >> will you be wearing a gopro on your head? >> possibly. you will have to tune in at 5:00 to see. >> we want to see what you're seeing, that angle. we'll tune n melissa, thank you. "closing bell" starts right now. hell loerks welcome to the "closing bell," i'm kelly evans at the new york city stocking exchange and im bill griffeth. oil prices dpaulg on the back of weak chinese data over the weekend and opec now saying these low price right side hurting u.s. oil production. we will take you live to the nymex. the price of crude continues lower and with it goes gasoline too. >> and with it goes the stock market as art was pointing out today, the dow is down 72 points at the moment. apple doing all right. it's saying this morning

preorders for the new iphones were coming in strong. could the ipad pro be causing problems next quarter, that's coming up. >> plus there's the fed. the decisions impact on biotech of all places. we will break down how thursday's big meeting could shake up that sector. >> plus we've got two stocks that could break out no matter what the fed does in that space. we will tell you what those are in just a moment. we will start with alibaba whose shares with falling, down 3% right now after bare ron's put that report out saying the stock could fall another 50% in price from here? in the past alibaba's jack mau has said he doesn't pay much attention to the company's stock price. listen. >> i don't watch t i think we will let the market take care of themselves, we should watch and take care of the business. when it goes down i'm not excited, when it goes down i'm never depressed. this is how people look at and

what we should focus on is our business, our customer, our employees are the same. what are you going to do? you're going to go on the street telling people my stock is too low. or my stock is too high? forget about that. just focus on creating the business. >> okay. so that's what he said and yet alibaba came out with a five page -- five page response late yesterday to the bare ron's article trying to set the record straight. seven points. seven long points in this thing. they said the barron's report contained factual inaccuracies and selective use of information and that the conclusions that the report who are wrote the piece draws are misleading. it was a long -- for a company that doesn't care about its stock price it cared very much about this piece in barron's over the weekend. >> is alibaba worth buying on its weakness. joining us is jeff previous who is bearish on alibaba and henry

globe who is bullish. henry, why isn't alibaba going down 50% from here? >> so we remain positive on alibaba. we still think there's huge potential in terms of growth in china. as of now only 50% -- 50% of the internet users participating online shopping so we think that is a huge opportunity for alibaba as an industry leader to benefit from that trend. >> jeff, essentially jonathan lang of barrons was saying the stock is expensive, the execution is suspect. the comparisons the company says were not appropriate, comparing them to a price to earnings ratio of ebay or other problems. did you agree with the barron's article or do you have other reasons that you're bearish on the company. >> i do think alibaba is protesting too much. i've got to say i can't necessarily disagree with the

motion that ebay which is this legacy e-commerce platform is not the proper comparison to alibaba. i'm sympathetic to that point. on the whole i think the most important point that investors needs to realize is there's a lot of opacity and confusion on what's going on with this company. we heard a lot about that around ipo, a lot of people expected i guess we would dig into the company, all we continue to hear is this china miracle. a bunch of consumers that can be unlocked. not only is that a concern for me because of a slowing economy, but auto makers had the same metrics that they trotted out about how there's only four cars per 100 chinese and it was going to be a big deal and autos were going to be everywhere in china. we saw a brief pop then saw it fall back into a pretty modest growth rate for auto make nurse china. i think it's good to be interested in how much money they spend on e-commerce instead of making a blanket statement. >> henry, at the same time the company itself was the one who

at that city tech conference a week or two ago came out and said it was going to miss its annual merchandise growth volume projections by mid single digits. it's a pretty big miss, it's already seen a slowing in those volumes. you can be right about the secular growth story and still wrong about the potential for alibaba to maintain its rapid growth pace. >> yeah, i agree. so i think that's really because of the large base for alibaba and also from jd.com which has made progress. still you talk about the consumer spending still it's too early to draw conclusion about the consumer spending impact by the economy. we still need to monitor the trend over there to see how is the consumer spending trending over the next several quarters. >> henry, isn't the point that alibaba in a way is telling us, right, to some extent we can look to the market for

information that especially in china is hard to get otherwise and the message seems to be the consumer spending just isn't there, at least in what was previously baked into the shares. >> yeah, but still we don't know. the market is kind of guessing the management expectation. we don't know what the management expectation in the first place. so they say in the single digits, mid single digit lower their expectation. i think that is conservative on their guidance in terms of the quarters. >> jeff, if you were invest nothing a company like alibaba for five or ten years, a long time buy and hold, is this the tie to buy it? >> i mean, i don't necessarily think it is because the most important thing to refer remember is not just forward guidance, they missed wall street expectations on the top quarter. i think it's 12 times current sales and it's like 8 times next year's revenue. if we continue to see guide down and miss on the revenue that

multiple looks more obscene. a long way of saying it's well and good to think they will eventually resolve this multiple in the valuation or compare to other high growth chinese stocks which haven't done so well this year. so i think it's very dangerous to expect this ratio to resolve in a favorable way for alibaba. you're paying big premiums for growth that we're uncertain about. to me that's not a recipe i'm comfortable with right now. >> gentlemen, thank you. alibaba is down 3% on the session today. the shine from a lot of public offerings is wearing off as your dominic shoe has details on more of them. >> it might be in the ipo market fore told a little bit about the markets turmoil we have seen over the past month and a half. this is the renaissance ipo exchange traded fund the ticker is ipo. renaissance capital is an eef fund manager. this particular etf which is in the white line is the performance line year to date.

the orange line is the s&p 500. you can see early in year they tracked pretty closely. all of a sudden ipo started to outperform. just before the market really took down we saw a downturn in the overall ipo market. now at least the s&p 500 is out per forg those oips. it's possible that the ipo pipeline is going to dry up and that's got some investors concerned. the reason why is because as you guys just pointed out with your alibaba discussion a lot of high profile ones over the course of, a, the past year or so have seen their share prices dip below their ipo price. alibaba is one of them. you take a look at some of the other high profile ipos as well. take a look at some of these other ones, for instance, etsy, down 10.5% and that's just since their ipo. take another one here, this is box on the clouds storage side of things also below its ipo price as well.

the question then becomes whether this dries up the pipeline and what it means. cathy smith over at renaissance capital spoke earlier today on squawk on the street and talked about what it means and why it could be a bright spot for future ipos and their performance. >> i think the important thing to note and we've done studies of this, that after a dry spell in the ipo market that we're having now because of these points i just made, after that usually the ones that are done almost all trade very well. so after the facebook ipo, a month went by and almost every oo ipo done over the next month did quite well and those included service snell and palo alto networks. >> the this ipo market is not going to survive given all the volatility, the bullish side is perhaps the ipos ss that do woman co-m to market come to

market decidedly so. ipos, whether or not this means we could see better performance for those ones that actually do come to market later on down the line. >> you have to figure if it's able to come to market in such a tough environment it deserves t dom, thanks very much. let's get to our "closing bell" exchange as we begin this week. who knows what's coming on thursday. joining us now anthony chan from chase, peter kosta from empire executions, both of them there at post 9 near at the new york city stock exchange and it's the return of rick santelli and you came back just in time. what are your thoughts going into this week? not only do you think something is going to happen on thursday, but are the markets setting up us for it right now do you think? >> you know, in terms of the last question, i like at a 217, 218-10 unchanged on the year, i think that says it all. when i look at the equity markets we've seen much higher prices yearly in the year than we do now and that's a split

decision between global economics and the catalyst of which may be the fed and normalization. personally i'm a better man in terms of steve leaseman i bet him last november they wouldn't raise for all of 25 # 2015. on the other hand, i really think they need to. i'm not sure how it's going to turn out, it will be like you, bill, asking me to think of a number between 1 and 100 because i think you would have as good a chance of guessing that number as we have to guess what stand fisher, janet yellen and company are going to do. if there was rules that we all could see that were plain and simple, if this then that i think the market would have an easier time of it. i think ultimately the latter is going to be the levin we all learn depending on the outcome thursday. if we don't normal lies i would expect you would see a pretty good rally in economics. if there is normalization maybe there will be a better market ahead.

the real issue is knowing that the economy is calibrated to something a little more eelist i can rather than an interest rate subsidy that benefits the investing class. >> anthony, the wall street journal reminds us how many central banks, israel's included were eager and quick to raise interest rates only to have to turn around and drop them again. what makes you think that this time will be different with the u.s. experience after watching israel, sweden, the european central bank and others try to do this and then have to reverse course? >> kelly, you are spot on. those three central banks did have to reverse themselves. that's one of the things that the federal reserve is watching. the federal reserve has three children, the first one is the employment child and that one tells them they are ready to go because employment conditions are great, but then it has the price child and prices today according to the federal reserve's price mandate we are not there yet and their new newly conceived child market volatility we definitely are not there next. if you look at the market vix we

are covering around 24.5, volatility is greater and even for those people that say things are calming down in the chinese equity markets, guess what, we've been seeing over the last couple days that the equity market opens low and sort of stabilizes or doesn't drop so much towards the end. . it sounds to me like that has the chinese out there buying. market volatility still a problem. historically when the federal reserve tends to raise rates that pushes market volatility even higher. fisher has told us that's something they are watching. i would say two out of three says they might wait a little longer and maybe rick will be right and they won't move this year. i think they will move in december. >> peter, what do you think? this market we're down 78 right now on the dow, but for the week do you expect kind of a quiet anticipatory week before we get to thursday or what do you think is going to happen? >> i think a lot of people will be betting a little bit to see what happens on thursday.

me personally i agree with rick totally. i think that we probably won't see anything until the first quarter of next year and i would love to see a rate hike. i think that normalization would be good for the economy and good for the market and good for everybody, i just don't think it's going to happen just yet. >> do you agree that a rate hike on thursday would bring a rally? >> i don't know go b. -- >> is the converse true, then. if they don't raise rates we get a sell off? >> it's possible. i think the initial impact will probably be a little bit of a sell off. i think that longer term meaning two or three weeks you will probably see the market rally because when the fed raises rates it's obvious that the economy is doing well, the reason they are raising it is because they're worried about inflation, wage inn plagues, the positive aspects of a growing economy. if they do worry about that and do feel that that's where we are in then that's good for the market, it's great for the market, but i don't think we are at that point yet. i think we still have probably another three or four months before we see that kind of positive growth, the wage growth

they are expecting. we haven't seen it yet. we haven't even seen a major uptake in it. i think that we still -- we will probably see nothing happen next year. >> all right. thank you, guys. >> thanks, good. >> rick, good to have you back. >> thank you. just in time, 45 minutes to go in the session today. it is waiting on the fed this week, the dow is down 67 points, the s&p is down about 8, the small cap under pressure declines 0.4 of a percent, apple is down about 15 points. >> apple says their new iphones are on pace to hit record first weekend sales, but there is something that could dampen sales of the ipad pro. josh lipton will have the low down coming up next. also ahead meg terrell tells us what could happen to the biotech sector. this one has been in their cross hairs. stay tuned. it's more than the cloud.

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records when it hits stores on september 25th. >> however, and there are people on twitter long i'm pushing the stock down but i'm just reading this copy here, it's new ipad pro may already be facing a key component shortage, josh lipton that is that story for us. >> let's start with the iphone news. the 6 s and 6 s plus became available for preorders on saept and this morning apple saying that orders were very strong around the world. the company is on pace to beat last year's first weekend sales of 10 million units. rbc does note some caveats here, apple didn't announce first weekend pre order data like last year, china was included in the initial launch for the first time and while the 6 s plus is back ordered he says the 6 s looks to be broadly still available. still net net saying that the numbers are a positive. he's looking for the stock to move to 150 over the next 9 to

12 months. there was also a report on the ipad pro. digit times research is saying because of that tablet's price point and what the firm says are supply shortages shipments will reach less than 3 million units in q 4, but creative strategies says investors doesn't focus on the ipad pro's performance in q 4. his point is it's only first launch nothing november. instead he says this holiday season investors will and should concentrate on sales of the apple watch and those new iphones. guys, back to you. >> the key here in shortages and parts issues can go one of two ways, the best news for any company is that they don't have enough to meet demand, right? >> exactly. >> right. i mean, listen, bahara's point was nets let's not look at q 4, instead let's look at the quarters beyond that. whenever i talk to tim cook he is still enthusiastic about the

tablet and a lot of that is because he still thinks it can be such a tool in the workplace. that's what the -- really they hope for with the ipad pro, that's why they have these distribution agreements with ibm and cisco. we will see how that plays out in the quarters ahead. >> and yet the iphone we wring our hands every time i make a new announcement and yet they are look to go break sales records every time, right? >> right. you look at that stock, they had a nice run in the past five days, still down 10% interest fed rate hike that recent high. that is the worry, the concern of some skeptics, can they grow these iphone units in the quarters ahead given those tough comps, given a slowing china, giving a maturing smartphone market. i think bulls are going to say at least on the last conference call cook told us 30% of users had moved to the 6 and 6 plus that is correct would imply a lot of head room ahead at least in temples upgrades, guys. >> all right. josh, good, thank you. see you later.

josh lipton with that incredible view of -- >> i was thinking the same thing, doesn't it look beautiful there. >> we have our new bureau out in san francisco and they have a wonderful view out there. >> is that the oakland bay bridge? okay. i stand corrected. it's still a beautiful view there. 18 minutes left in the trading session now with the dow down 61 points as we head toward the close for this monday. >> how about the fed's interest rate decision this week impact consolidation in the biotech space? we will talk to meg terrell with a special report next. >> coming up two stocks that may be poised to break out no matter what the fed decides on thursday. that's coming up here on "closing bell." before at&t and directv are now one.

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. you know, biotech mergers and acquisitions have been red hot this year. >> huge volume. what could happen to that if the fed decides to hike interest rates later this week? >> a lot of people have been worried about this idea that the rising fed interest rate will effect biotech valuations and the m & a sector. we took to look over the last

ten years to see if there is any correlation. there is an inverse correlation, fed rate coming down, the rate index going up. the question is does inverse correlati correlation. they say reasons to worry about r. things like if the interest rates go up then that means as you are val ewing longer term assets like biotech drugs you should discount those a little more. also that there is a risk off environment. why not worry. other things like how solidly the business is performing, how good your pipeline is and how strong the m & a market and people's appetite for risk matter more than the interest rates. bank of america did an analysis this have to see if over 20 years there was no correlation between these things and they have found in general not interest. when interest rates rise that doesn't affect biotech valuations too much. they find wasn't it did it was typically amongst smaller companies. when you look at m a& a, folks

don't think it's going to have much of an impact on what that has been a huge year for biotech m & a. >> the first thing i thought, one, maybe it needs to cool off a little bit, right? number two, janet yellen has already promised even when they win raising rates they will do it in a very gradual process, i can't imagine that's going to shut off the m & a spigot just like that. >> that's true. big companies still need to buy and add things to their private line. if you look at the deals we have already had, we have some that are still pending on the table, folks are speculating this is going to continue. >> listening to our your reporting, words like immune know their piece, things on fighting cancers that we couldn't imagine a few years ago it seems like this is powerful enough to overcome whatever moves may or may not happen with

interest rates, is it not? >> that's what a lot of people think. it's interesting you brought up immunotherapy. there are ideas where people are excited about the technology and it is paying off in some aspects of the market. it's in the bigger companies, people feel more comfortable investing. the smaller ones there is so much excitement, folks have started to wonder if that's where the valuations have gotten too high. >> these tend to have a rhythm of their own, sometimes the fed pricks thems, sometimes they get overheated. >> i have to bring up the irony of janet yellen's call on small biotech stocks. >> it didn't work out the way some might have expected. >> time for a cnbc news update. let's go over to sharon epperson. >> the history professor who was killed in his office at delta state university in mississippi has been identified as ethan schmidt. the shoot sr still believed to be on the loose but no longer on campus. the campus is being cleared with

classes canceled for the rest of the day. california officials say 23,000 people have been displaced by two explosive wildfires decimating whole communities in northern california. people have packed evacuation centers as the fires have destroyed hundreds of homes and led to one confirmed death. >> republican presidential hopeful scott walker is hoping to revitalize his campaign by taking on unions. a familiar foe for the wisconsin governor. his plan calls for eliminating unions for employees. federal government. and forbes magazine has named the dallas cowboys as the most valuable franchise in the world. with an estimated value of $4 billion. number two is real madrid, with the new england patriots and new york yankees tied for third. and that's cnbc's news update at this hour. back to you. >> that was before last night's win, bill? >> you had to show video from last night's game?

thank you so much. i appreciate that. >> if you have for those giants. >> that's great. >> 30 minutes to go until the close. >> the game was one minute too long. one minute too long. if we could have just ended it one minute early we would have been fine. where was i? >> now i'm thinking about federer and what he might have done with more time or not. anyway, 30 minutes to go, the dow down 75 points, s&p down 9, the nasdaq 19. so we are picking up a little bit to the down side here with half an hour to go. >> when we come back a leading trader will tell us what to watch in this final half hour this have monday where the dow is down 69 points. >> plus technical analyst carter werts says two stocks could be poised to take off regardless of what happens with the fed this week. we will tell you what those are first in business worldwide. lease the 2015 rc 350 for $429 a month for 36 months. see your lexus dealer.

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the dow about 77 points to kick off the week given about a half percent across all the major averages. the s&p 500 sector heat map it actually has everybody in the red except for utilities. the best performing one up about a third of 1%, materials at the bottom there down 1.3%, energy on the weakness and crude is down 0.8%. bill. >> defensive play there, i

guess. we're heading into the last half hour, critical time for the markets on this monday. mat chesslock is with me here. it is oversimplifying to say we are going to a.m. bl along until thursday. >> not at all. we are finally seeing a 75 point down day mean nothing. >> after the volatility we saw in august that's for sure. >> that's going to be the norm. i think volatility is going to be the case going forward here, even the people that are betting on the etfs they're taking the money out of the inverse volatility. that's the norm of going forward. >> oil, there is still seems to be a tick by tick correlation. why? >> because it's to global. we saw the industrial data out of china which was a little slower, oil took the brunt that have this morning, we opened down and stayed down all day. it's definitely going to be a part and pargel going forward. >> we've seen a slight rise of the 30 year treasury in terms of yield here. is that going to crimp stock's

style or will that matter at all before thursday? >> i think it's all about thursday as far as stocks about. we awesome companies go out and raise money prior to this deal. we saw at the end of the august no one wanted to do anything with all the volatility. we may see a lot of that going forward. it would be a good time to get companies involved. mr. may be mergers and acquisitions until the end of the year. >> any levels you're watching? >> not at this point. we had such dramatic moves. you're going to play light at the end of the day and k active in the morning and ride it through the rest of the day sniel see you on thursday. >> all right. >> good luck to your falcons tonight. >> thank you. they will need it. >> see you later. >> we've got two stocks now that could rally no matter what the fed does later this week. carty worth who is head of technical analysis is here to tell us what they are. welcome to you. >> thanks for having me. >> drum roll, please. >> yeah. what i thought we would look at is just the stocks that have spent a lot of time doing nothing and i think that's the opportunity. they have a pre condition of great run ups and then consolidating and they look to

my eyes being poised to break out. these stocks have nothing to do with one another. this is basically proteins, chicken, beef and price line on travel. it's the pre condition that's to important. you have these big run ups and then what's key is the consolidati consolidation. they made no progress from march of '14 to september '15. an 18-month consolidation. that's what is the setup, a great run up and then a great consolidati consolidation. >> these are eerily similar. >> and they have nothing to do with one another. the next chart is tyson itself and then price line. these have been dormant as the market has moved higher. what we have here is the same setup, essentially a triple and then after the big run up you get the consolidation and the presumption is that we're going to actually come out of this range. there's 45 levels being in effect for 18 months, made no progress, lagged the market on

n. that period. >> what about bird flu? >> happily i'm unburden nd by any of that. >> you don't care. >> i couldn't care less. >> as the first start shows us tyson and price line are identical. >> let's show price line. >> price line really the same opportunity in terms of almost a triple, the big run up and then of course we've got our sideways and i'm thinking to my eye the next up leg. again, the pre condition of strength outperg the market, the second condition of underperforming the market. >> when do you get burned using this approach? >> you get burned about a third of the time. these are sort of 65/35 moments. what percentage of the time do they in fact do what i'm marketing, break out or do the exact opposite, you're buying at the high and it breaks out. >> do you look for higher highs? >> and signs and volume. big tells that there's accumulation. >> something to watch. regardless of what the fed does

that's my favorite part. carter worth, appreciate it. thank you, sir. >> a true chart watcher, doesn't even read a newspaper. that's for sure. all right. we've got 13 -- 23 minutes left in the trading session here, the dow starting to move a little bit lower down 86 points at this hour with the s&p down 10 and the nasdaq down 23. when we come back a warning about a slowing u.s. oil production from a rather unusual source. that would be opec. what they had to say about our oil still to come. plus military drones have been wage ago war in the skies and now corporate america is fighting to maintain those drone contracts. just ahead what this means for big defense contractors and national security on "closing bell."

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what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. less than 20 minutes left, the dow is down 91 points, our is a tis significance pointing out the dow's trading range has been 120 points, that's the smaller trading range we have seen for a day since august 18th. you know, all the volatility in august, since august 18th the average daily point range for the dow was 405 points. >> wow. >> so today is 25% of that or a little more than that. >> and the strangest thing is

you are in the market, bill, you would almost thing thai period never happened. >> yes, you would. meantime true car is lower on news that google has hired on the online car's company away to be the head of the self driving car project. he used to be an executive as well as ford and hyundai. he starts at google tomorrow. a turn of the tables, opec is paint ago not to positive light on oil production. hi, jackie. >> good afternoon. we will start with the closer price. $44 on the nose today. we were hoping to see either over or under to get a direction of where the oil trade would go, traders do think we probably will go lower from here. there was concern in the marketplace today about that industrial data out of china, also concerns that china won't deep it's gdp targets, you had a little bit of a stronger dollar as well, oil traders also watching what's going to happen with the fed and gasoline got

hit. as if that wasn't enough the perfect storm to send us lower us the opec monthly bulletin out. what the cartel said was that it does expect to see nonopec producers that are other producers within the global marketplace see their supply come down a little bit but the caveat is that they also have taking down their 2016 demand forecast. so both of those things go down together. it probably won't change the market dynamics that much. in terms of production opec pumped 31.5 million barrels per day in august, that is a relatively high number and if we do see iranian oil come back on to the marketplace then globally speaking we do have the same kind of supply concerns that we were dealing w of course, traders still talk being that $20 call from goldman sachs, they say when goldman speaks typically markets listen. goldman has been wrong in the past but at the same time it's not something to sneer at begin the current market conditions. back to you. >> gasoline is down 29 straight days now, the national average,

somebody told me they saw $1777 near the consumer studio in morning. >> expect it to go lower because as i said the products really got hammer today and that is because people aren't traveling as much now that they are in the swing of everything after labor day. >> and we are getting the cheaper winter blend coming up as well. listen to me, i sound like jackie deangelis now. >> sounds like starbucks, the pumpkin spice latte and cheaper winter blend. >> we do have lof it. >> thank you, jackie. 15 minutes to go here. the dow continues to edge lower, it's down 83 points right now so gains approaching more than half a percent even for that nasdaq today. >> we have someone coming up -- >> losses i should say. i'm sorry. >> we knew what you meant. we have somebody who says there is something much more important than the fed rate hike weighing on stocks right now. what could that be? he will explain when we come back.

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all right. very interesting story. we have a news alert regarding the sec and insider trading case dominic chew has it for us. >> this is a potential set back for the sec and brings a question what actually defines insider trading in the world of wall street. so this case involves a former wells fargo trader who had

allegedly been trading ahead of tips given by the research team at wells fargo on analysts upgrades and down grades, trading ahead of those analyst upgrades and down grades on behalf of wells fargo's accounts allegedly. the sec's own internal judge says that this case is being miss dismissed. the reason why is important. late last year there was a second circuit appellate court ruling that basically set forth some precedent for what defines insider trading. in that ruling they basically said that when a person providing a tip to somebody else needs to then have the person receiving the tip know full well that the person that provided the tip received some kind of personal benefit for giving that tip in the first place. in this case here for this wells -- former wells fargo trader and research analyst case that was not met. so again, this particular case brings more clarity to what can and cannot be considered insider

trading in what could have broad and wide sweeping influences on what kinds of insider trading cases are brought in the future so bill, kelly, a very big headline coming across with regard to an sec administrative judge dismissing this case that a former wells farg dough frayeder traded ahead of analyst research upgrades and down grades. >> dom, what you are saying is sec's own judge has ruled this because of new terminology and new approach? >> correct. >> that's come to light? >> kelly, the sec's administrative law judge, that is the sec's internal judge panel has now said that this case involving this former wells fargo trader and alleged profits made on this tip or tippee relationship does not meet those standards for being considered or classified as inn shierd trading as marked out by a ruling late last year by the second circuit court of appeals that said that the person providing tips and the person

receiving tims, the person receiving the tip has to know that the person that gave the tip received some kind of personal benefit. that's where this definition kind of comes into play, guys. >> wow. that's a whole new wrinkle there. dom, thanks very much. appreciate it. >> we have ten minutes left in the trading session here as we head toward the close, dow down 83 degrees. joining us luke extra paolini. you think there's something else besides the threat that threatens the market more, you think china. >> yes. china is the biggest concern for foreign investors. i think that the fed will do what we probably all expect to do, but we gradually in the approach but china is a big question mark for the investors. >> you guys have a couple billion dollars in assets under management. how much of that is in global stocks, how much is in u.s. stocks and what do you think the prospects are? >> we believe when we look at it from a global point of view the european equity market is the

one with the most upside. we have a relatively strong economy, an ecb which is in liquidity, earning psych sl two or three years behind. we pretty much prefer europe to the u.s. where we see less valuation, less positive valuation. >> do you agree with the world bank that if the fed started raising rates now sooner rather than later it would have a negative impact on emerging markets? >> no, i don't think so. i think the key is the situation in china. i think we all know that the rates i don't think if makes a difference september or december. what is important is a gradual approach. >> do you think china slows down more? >> i think there will be more bad news before we get something positive. definitely we are starting to see the policies, we are starting to see i think some improvement in the housing sector as well. i think probably we are not too far away from a turning point in china. >> city has says it's base case

with a global recession, it could mean growth below 2%. what do you think happens with global growth here. >> no, i don't think that we are going to be in a global recession, we have just accepted the fact that global growth is stuck do you recally weaker. we have to accept 2% growth in the u.s. is gien, 1% growth in europe is client and china will probably grow 6. we don't see the risk of a global recession right now. >> what do you see for exchange rates, especially euro dollar? we're watching that careful three here in the united states. >> there will be a little bit more upside on the dollar but not too much. the dollar is very, very expensive. >> parity is off the table these days? >> yes. european growth is actually picking up. i don't think there is much upside left for the dollar. >> what do you think of german core bin. >> i think it was a big surprise. the impact would be probably the kerv tiffs will be in power a little longer. >> a lot of interesting hangspp

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> all right. coming up on the last four minutes of trade here. the week is upon us now when everybody has been waiting to see what the fed is going to do, we will know on thursday. the question is what's the market going to do before then? and then what will it do afterwards if there is a rate increase or not? here is what the market did today and i have just combined the dow, s&p and the nasdaq all together. you can just see this definite correlation, we had a rally on the open this morning, it wasn't very strong, down 100 points at one time today and we are down 78 rights now on the industrial average, but for the day, let's see, the s&p is the biggest decliner but not by much, down half a percent right now, wti, again, if i laid oil on this you would see a correlation there in

terms of the trading, right around here when the market started -- when the stock market started to trade, but, you know, we're seeing this gradual move lowering and it's taking can a gasoline price was t the national average is at 233, last year at this time it was at 3.39. we're really off where we were last year at this time, down 1.2% on witi crude today. the ten year yield as rick santelli pointed out, the ten year is back where it has been for much of this year at 2.18, we are at 2.17 right now, had a blip midday, but we are still right where we have been. no signals on what the tech kpek tags is for the fed rate increase or not from the ten-year yield. what has gone up appreciably, again, is volatility, the vix today up 5.25%. look who is back as i mention frd vacation, bob pisani. >> i'm surprised it's not moving a little more.

we are going ahead of the biggest fed meeting in many years. there is an anticipation, a substantial minority still feel they are going to raise rates. the feds seem to want to raise rates. i'm surprised we are not a little higher here. the market seems to be telling us that it's not anticipating an awful lot of volunteering tilt in the next several days. >> right. >> if you look at vix futures the ends of the december contract further out the numbers for the vix are lower in december than it is here, there is this little bit of elevation, but not much. what the vix seems to be telling us is they don't think the market is going to move too much other way, whether the fed raises rates or not. they are price something around 2% potential volatility in the week ahead, somewhere around there, i don't want to go through all the math with you, but that's not a lot. that's a few hundred dow points. we have done that on a single day. >> i don't know if you saw the note from robert hum who is a statistician for us pointing out that today we saw --

>> re low volatility. >> narrow west range for the dow since august 18. the average range since august 18 has been 400 points. >> just to show you how weird things have been recently, historically in the last couple years the dow has moved 120, 125 point range on a daily basis. in the last few weeks we have seen it much more volatile than that, but that goes to my point, the market is not -- the trade remembers not reaching for protection against the idea that there's going to be some kind of big move in week. >> one way or the other. >> they seem to be saying we don't think anything is going to happen whether the fed raises rates or not. i find that surprising but a lot of people right now i think have been praying -- they've seen a bounce all throughout the year so buying protection has not been a particularly favorable profitable move for them. >> let's not forget, though, it is rash hashana, but we do wish that happy new year to those who have been celebrating it. i want to see those slides to

your trip to london. >> it's an expensive place to be but one of the most dynamic cities in the world. >> that's it with the dow down 65 points. stay tuned now, this will be very interesting, this formal fed official who is apology for its fed's bond buying spree the last several years. that's coming up on the second hour of the "closing bell" with kelly evans and company. i will see you tomorrow. kelly. thank you, bill. we will come to "closing bell," i'm kelly evans, the dow jones industrial average going out with a loss of 63 points today, one of the narrow west trading ranges we have seen in some time. this market is a coiled spring waiting for the federal reserve's meeting, we will get that decision on thursday. everything kind of traegd water but moving to the down side, s&p down 8, nasdaq down 16, interest rates roughly in place, those utilities were the only positive sector on the s&p for most of the session today. let's get more thoughts and reaction on all of this now. joining today's panel michael

san tolly is here from yahoo finance, kate kelly and for more on today's market action guy adami. welcome one and all. mike, do we have to wait until thursday and all the energy is waiting to expel at that point? >> it seems like t it's a very narrow range, i thought the market traded a little heavier than i might have traded today. i think there's not a lot of commitment. but to me i heard bill and bob talking about the vix. i'm not actually surprised it's not up more because it's already elevated. it never did have that relief. despite the fact that the market has been calm and doing not much of anything for several days i think a bit has remained in the vix. somebody is going to try to front run that thursday decision, maybe we just have a what the heck rally. >> i was going to ask, guy, is this one of those situation where is the fed does nothing or

is doubbish or could we be setting up for a positive session? >> bob mentioned there is still a lot of unanswered questions for them. i don't think that's necessarily the case i think everything is in place if you go by the guidelines and mandates they set forth for them to raise. as counter intuitive as this may sound i believe that if they do raise a quarter of a point the market will actually rally on that, the equity market, because at least it will show maybe we've gotten some semblance of credibility back, maybe they are on firmer ground than we thought. i think if they do nothing the market will take that as a sign of weakness, a sign of something that maybe they see that we don't see and i think you will actually see the market sell off if they do nothing. so that's probably sort of flies in the face what have a lot of people think. that's what i think. >> guy, you could certainly make a credible argument fora racina raising rates, but there is the

larry sommers school that says don't do it now, the unemployment top line numbers are misleading, we need to see more stability and growth in the u.s. particularly with some of the issues overseas like china. i mean, as we all know the market is expecting sort of minimal expectations of a rise, i think 28% or something at last check. so, i don't know, i would think we would not see that much of a reaction if there's no rate hike and more of a reaction if there is. no? >> i think we need a decision grid at this point. it's like this is like a 6 by 6 column or chart now. what do you think, guy? >> i think that's a great question. the way i look at it that would be my knee-jerk reaction as to how the market would interpret t i understand what you are saying the larry sommers champ camp, but there was some hard and fast rule about unemployment. they will never get the inflation that they covet because we got exactly what i believe the opposite. i think they need to do

something to show the market we've set forth this mandate, we've been talk about this september date now for quite some time, to walk away from it in my opinion would be a syphon weakness. a sign of weakness that only would sell off in the markets here but i think you would sigh increased volatility overseas which is not a good thing. >> one interesting thing there was a piece notice journal about this that i thought was food for thought and it came up in a couple discussions i had today, the idea of what if they raise rates and then they have to do the u-turn. >> we mentioned it last hour. it's a great point, whether it's sweden, israel, the european central bank, any number of actually other emerging economies that have tried to raise and run r return r turn around and lowered. >> you lose it i think if you have to act and then unwind within, i don't know, a year, 18 months. >> that's true but i think the decision that bernanke made in '11 not to raise when the ecb was doing it and basically say that the inflation signals were

transient i think you might be at a flip side moment where the fed could be in a position where they say we think all this market dumb multiare the trans nant thing -- i just think because we talked about this for so long everyone is bringing in a complicating factor. another one is people going back to the speech that vice chair fasher said that said don't underestimate the uncertainty by moving first. that's not necessarily something to guy's point that the market would love to hear right now. >> there's no doubt that among other things we have had way too much time to think about this. >> yes. >> seven years. >> seven years is a long -- is a lot of thought. >> not even to mention the other question. if they raise the target can they achieve the target? all the mechanical noise around there. >> it's not just the federal funds rate but it's different mechanisms that include trying to get researches out of the system. guy n a sense what's happening because it has been so long is that it's kind of -- people just

have this kind of we're sick of this environment and things have changed and feds should raise. it's not necessarily an argument that looks at the prime age to employment population ratio, the declines we're seeing, those import prices even if you strip out gasoline last month. you could make the argument if you weren't so sick of making the argument that this wouldn't be the best time to raise rates. >> yes, 100%, but in a lot of ways the voluntarily timt that we are all talk being now and all the things that you mentioned, their attempt to get the numbers to where they want them are all failed attempts. you can lower rates to zero but you can't make companies hire. companies have learned to do more with less. some of the unintended consequences of our fed actions they are getting the exact opposite of what they desired and the volatility that scares them and may keep them from this hike on thursday is the volatility that in a lot of ways they are responsible for which is a longer conversation, but mike just mentioned it, there is never going to be -- in the environment we are in right now

there is never going to be the right time to raise. since you have been talking about it for so long why not do it now? again, get back any semblance of credibility that you may have. >> all right. we will if you tell the fed on the shelf for the moment and get over to bob pisani who is at the alibaba trading post here at the stock exchange i should clarify. the company under pressure, barron's said the stock could fall another 50% and that did take another slice out of shares today. >> it did. i think the important thing is it's the one-year anniversary, it was september 19th i stood right here in front of jack maut. for all the heat this story generated the impact was relatively modest. we're down 3%. that's not far from a new low for alalibaba. 26 million shares. the truth is -- put up the 52-week chart for alibaba. we peaked back in november it's been a slowalibaba.

the important thing is a couple of key points on the metrics, they went public september 19th, $68, they opened at $92 that day, i will never forget, i was standing right here. the high was $120 that was in november and today we are at $62, it's been a slow decline here. for all the points they made about alibaba, the fact that there was a weak economy in client fashion increased e-commerce competition i think the key point when i was talking to people today about it is whether or not the decline we've been seeing, slower decline in retail sales is due to concerns like the stock markets problems in china or whether there really is some kind of more serious longer term down trend. that's going to be the most important thing for alibaba, the strength of the consumer in china. that's what we still don't know about right now. >> bob, thank you very much. a walk down memory lane. there are a couple of company specific factors but what's also really interesting to me about this story is the chill it's put on tech ipos this year.

11% of total offerings. you have the renaissance that dom hit this last hour, the renaissance ipo index is down 10% year to date. you wouldn't know from all the focus that uber gets, for example, just how concerned some of these private companies are what happens when they try to go public. >> people really like to focus and i can say this as a tech ipo reporter or veteran, they love to focus on its etsys and uber's of the world. perhaps in the ipo and in the tech sector it was a temporary top or a plateau because there has been kind aflac of activity and there are all these small and mid cap stocks that make up a tech ipo market that may not feel like it's a good time right now. >> look at alalibaba, twitter, vox. and this is what we talked about on friday. when he said look at the goal between public market and private market. >> the big ballyhooed deals did

not go that great. you also have the sense for the big kms opt to go stay private the ones that do file are the junior varsity. do we want to own them? they are all in these categories at this point that are kind of thought to be these winner take all areas of the market. >> look at what twitter has been through. there are a lot of legitimate criticisms of their business model, the stock hasn't performed as people would like, but really they have this incredible user base. we are on it right now, you know, i mean -- >> they keep updating the user interface, now it doesn't automatically load the tweets. i like to see the notifications, now i have to refresh the page, it's driving me crazy. the product has to work -- >> that's an example of what their problem is. >> absolutely. but think still have captivated a pretty enormous audience, you would think it shouldn't be a bridge too far to monetize that and continue growing. they don't have the formula yet and they are being punished and that's an established company. >> guy, before we let you go i would love your views here.

have public markets become too skeptical of some of these private companies and their growth potential? are there going to be unicorns stuck in silicon valley? >> i think the volatility that we're seeing in asian markets are definitely contributing to so fear. in twitter it was only five years ago or so where everybody was calling for the head of mark zuckerberg and facebook the stock was mired in no man's lands. it required what seemed to be a pretty easy fix in retrospect for that stock to go into ascension. i think at which time sr far too valuable property. yes, they have some problems, no doubt, and people a lot smarter than me are going to figure them out, but i think they are infinitely fixable and i think six months to a year from now we will say twitter in a lot of ways in terms of the stock mirrored what facebook was five or six years ago. >> fair enough. that reminds he of the argument bill miller who was buying into it was making for twitter. guy, also on alibaba how would

you trade this name now? >> bob just said it's been an orderly decline. respectfully in stock has gone from $120 to $60 in less than a year. it might have done so in seemingly an orderly fashion but it's been cut in half and has exposed a lot of the warts to yahoo. marissa meyers walked in at the right time in terms of the stock along with alibaba yahoo went pair a bowl lick almost. how i would trade it? all roads leap looed from alibaba and yahoo's demise to the gains we're seeing in google. i think google is a valuable property. >> interesting point, guy. thank you. be sure to stick around and watch more of a guy coming up with the "fast money" crew at 5:00. they will be talking about one stock that's higher on reports. apple may be look to go acquire t the details ahead at 5:00. a former fed official who once apologized for the bond buying craze says the fed has been missing market clues for a

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here is a look at how the sectors performed in the 62 point dow selloff today. in the s&p materials were the hardest hit down 1.3%, energy down 0.8%, consumer discretionary and industrials also getting hit today. utilities were the lone bright spot for most of the session. i'm sorry, that's what our next guest wrote in an op ed piece two years ago, the former fed officials apology for the quantitative easing, with the big fed decision on tap for thursday will main street benefit this time? andrew houzar managed the purchase program that was the sent officer piece of qe 16789 welcome to you. >> thank you for having me. >> what are your thoughts on thursday? >> well, i would never say never, but i would be shocked by a fed rate hike on thursday. i think could you talk about done i wishness of other central

banks, appreciation of the dollar but i think what you have is a fed that has been become hostage to the financial markets. this is a fed that has been jaw boning since 2010. talk being how it will create a wealth effect by bumping up stock markets and other markets and i think -- >> which it kind of has. >> which it has. so the trick is how does it pull away. i think the volatility in august will give pause to an already cautious fed and we will see it push back and probably at the earliest do december. >> do you think that by doing that that the fed is being unnecessarily cautious? that they are doing actual harm to the economy? >> yeah, i mean, i think the genie is out of the bottle on that. i apologized two years ago because i think you have to look at this the way that i used to look at it at the fed which is cost versus benefits. on some level the monetary

policy stimulus that's been done there's debate within the fed about how much benefit it's done for the economy especially for the average american and at the same time in terms of costs you see a lot of perhaps long-term costs but i think a lot of short term financial engineering in terms of stock buy backs, we are going to see probably over a trillion dollars of stock buy backs this year, more than earnings of the same companies during the same time. i think the cheap funding is causing a lot of unproductive games in the markets. >> andrew, you contended that the fed has become a little bit too friendly, maybe even hostage to the interests of wall street. can you talk about your view of that as someone that actually worked there and how that's progressed since you left? >> sure. i worked on the floor, on the trading floor in the new york fed running the mortgage desk. the fed's job historically has been to monitor the markets, be close in touch with all the banks and all the trading desks, but you have to look back at what happened in the ted.

the fed expanded its role dramatically in the markets in a very short time into a lot of markets, mortgage backed securities had never bought one mbs in all of its listly -- >> that's where y. they brought you in correct? >> yeah. basically it's forced the fed to actually solicit a lot more input from market participants. you already had a somewhat necessary conversation happening between wall streets and the fed, but i think in terms of what you have now in terms of all these committees that have been created, in terms of constant polling of wall street expectations, you really have i think on some level an independence that is unfortunately dissipating in terms of the us central bank. >> mike. >> if you could speak to what we were touching on earlier which is that th debate about how the fed could achieve a raising of the fed fund's target rate, in other words, the mechanical means it has to employ right now with wall street right there with the banks interacting with reserve levels and things like that, can it pull it off? is it unproven?

how do we know it's working? >> the fed rate in particular historically was impacted by reserve levels, under green span it started being more of a targets. there's not as much short term issue in we can raise the fed fund rate. the trickle down impact is a real question. this is the huge question we are not really talk being which is how is the fed going to deal with $2.5 trillion of reserves in the system ultimately reverse repose, interest on excess reserves, these are entirely unproven instruments. perversely we could see the fed at some point even if these tools do work, particularly ioer, we could see them paying wall street banks tens of billions of dollars not to lend. we saw them maybe just on their excess reserves. >> if i wanted to be super critical of your criticism, andy, all i would say is that

your background coming from being involved in the mechanisms of how the fed is doing this and dealing with its balance sheet is all well and good but is it a theoretical understanding of the relationship between monetary policy and it's effects on the real economy? >> in other words, is my criticism does it fully take into effect the relationship? i mean, my criticism on some level -- listen, these are all -- i have great respect for the people inside the fed, i have a lot of friends still, these are smart well intentioned people. i would argue that a lot of issue with the fed is that it's a hyper academic understanding of the markets. in many ways i think having worked on wall street as a managing director and inside the fed which is kind of unusual background i think i brought a bit of a more practical understanding. i think there's even a cultural conversation here which is obviously a much larger conversation we could have another day. >> you already mentioned that you think they won't raise interest rates on thursday. but i take that your point of view is that they should raise interest rates and if so by how much? >> i was in the school that

should raise interest rates months ago. on some level the easy money policies aren't aren't i think making a meaningful impact for main street, impact enough compared to the costs. i mean, i think it has to be incremental, the markets would be shocked, right, are going to be shocked potentially. >> if they had a hike at all. >> if they had a hike at all. >> you have to start with 25 bips, you have to do it slowly. the fed has been cautious about saying it's going to be one and done if we raise t i think they need to introduce more uncertainty into this world. we need to get back to markets that really trade on fundamentals rather than techniqueless. >> right now they are plenty confused waiting on that decision. thank you so much. for sharing your view with us today. >> thank you for having me. >> that's andrew huszar. >> facebook working on bringing virtual reality to your phone. it's putting it's 2014 acquisition of oculus vr to use.

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the dow starting off the week to the downside, down 62 points, the s&p was down 8. here are some of the hardest hit names on that dow, visa down 1%, cisco 1.25, ibm down about the same and microsoft down 1% today. facebook is looking to bring virtual reality to your cellphone, john ford has those details. >> it seems there is a new front opening up, 360 dege video.

wall street journal reporting that facebook is working on a smartphone app that will let you feel as if you are inside the action. it's not clear when that app might be available or if facebook will end up releasing it at all. it shows while it's ocul uchlt s unit continues to work on experiences they are experiencing on low end smartphone experiences, too, facebook is not alone in bringing to bring vr to smart phones, google in may announced the jump camera ring which has software stitch that video together. they plan to host that on youtube. gopro is going to send it's first rig for 360 degree video in october. the bottom line is it's a lot cheaper for consumers to view this through a phone for the first time than spend a lot of money on a specialized headset. >> john, forgive me. okay. i get the headset thing with virtual reality, but what are

they doing that's not going to involve a headset? >> imagine you have this video right on your phone and you put your phone in front of your face. if there's something that's been recorded with this 360 degree array as you look around the video changes and it's like you are in the space. you have to imagine kind of closing yourself in a little hood perhaps with the camera in front of your face, it's like you are looking through a helmet at a different world. >> basically what happens is you can hold the phone as a replacement for wearing something on your face? >> hold the phone. it's virtual real sniet what do you guys think? >> facebook is in this zone where it gets a pass on why are you doing this? obviously to make it more immerse sieve -- >> speaking of our earlier conversation on how they beat the pants off of at which timer. >> and they deserve the benefit of the doubt on this. i guess, john, this is all about keeping you on their apps longer and making richer still their experience. >> i could imagine some practical applications for this. let's say you are house hunting

and want to show your friends the house you might buy on facebook or you are looking at a beautiful vista on your vacation somewhere. think of how many silly videos are probably already on the facebook feed a adds another dimension to that. >> suppose you want to be in the room with the cat who is playing the piano. >> exactly. >> virtual reality. you've hit on t when it comes to real estate, you don't want to driver across town to see 8, 12 houses in person. why not do virtual walk-throughs, pick the best two or three and visit just those. facebook has also found first in photos and now in video that the richer the experience, the visual experience, the stickier it is and more people engage, that's why they are invest nothing virtual reality, if anybody stands to benefit from a rich experience it's facebook. >> when can we expect to use this technology? >> you can use it in a way now, samsung has a rig in partnership with oculus that let's you put the phone on your face but more and more companies are working

on it. surely with gopro coming out with this $15,000 rig in november which you talked about last week, next year we will see a lot more of it. >> a glimpse of the future. thank you so much. time for a consumer news update. let's flip over to sharon epperson. >> here is what's happening. president obama will raise concerns about cyber security with chinese vice president xi jinping during his visit to the white house later this month. this according to josh earnest who made the comment aboard air force one. for the first time in her campaign democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton addressing the issue of sexual assault on college campuses. she called it an epidemic in a speech at the university of northern iowa. her plan calls for a support network for survivors and disciplinary proceedings for both accusers and the accused. at least seven people were killed after a crane at a bridge construction site collapsed in india. the giant piece of equipment fell into the river ganghis in the eastern part of the country.

those killed were workers in a boat on the river. a female power lifter from russia pulling off an impressive stunt in an attempt to set a national record. she pulled a 17 ton tram car for more than 6 feet. she says she has been in training for six months. it's unclear whether she set the record. that's a cnbc news update at this hour. back to you. >> i almost pulled my back making the bed the other day, sharon. >> you don't even want to see what contraption is going on with my sprained ankle and crutches behind my. i don't know how this woman did it, but pretty amazing. >> sharon epperson, thank you. north tlop and lockheed martin are in the war to be the dominant eyes in the sky, one was a manned plane, the other a nonmanned one, jane wells, who is going to win? [ inaudible ] y. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions. including cloud and hosting services -

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here is a look at how we finished the day on wall street. a look at crude this, one really actually in a way took the market down with t it was down another 1%, the dow under ended up down 0.4, same for the s&p, nasdaq a little better. apple held up well today a lot

of people watching that correlation that persists between stocks and the price of oil as we wait for the fed's decision thursday. now the nation's two largest pure play defense companies are battling each other over aircraft, manned and unmanned, it's game of drones versus humans and both investors and taxpayers need to pay attention, jane wells has that story. can you hear us now? >> yes, i can. nor tlop and lockheed martin are battling over two different aircraft. first eyes in the sky. it is manned, it needs a pilot. now the unmanned global hawk from tlor tlop grum minute is up there right now, it has convinced the air force to let it test out some of the same surveillance equipment on the suchlt 2 so it make take over hook heed's job. they say nor tlop is ex stalling

all kinds of bolts. >> it will make it an intelligence community that has a requirement, and have it talk back to the needs that have intelligence community. >> now, tests begin shortly. lockheed, however, says the u 2 has a proven track record but the global hawk can fly longer because it is unmanned and the two companies are about to face off over an even bigger contract, the new air force bomber, potentially worth $80 billion. many analysts say this is a must win for northop if it wants to stay in the manned aircraft business though there are some reports that the bomber could at times be unmanned. imagine an unmanned newly updated b-2. wow. back to you. >> jane, how much of a departure is this for all of these unmanned aircraft discussions to even be happening in such a way that they could threaten the future of commercial manned aircraft? >> well, here is the deal.

these unmanned military drones are so complex and so expensive it's not like they are going to take over. they are not going to deliver packages for amazon, but when you talk about unmanned cars it is not inn consist receivable that you could at some point see partially manned aircraft with people on board or cargo on board. there may be at some point in the future the technology inside, the global hawk, for example, could be put in the right seat of a long haul cargo aircraft, one pilot on board and one down on the ground. >> thank you for now. our jane wells. what does this battle mean for the defense sector? let's talk to peter after plant, he is aerospace and defense analyst. peter, welcome to you. does this come down to lockheed being upstet that nor tlop wants to push a lot of drone technology. >> i mean, it's still a battle. the uav market or drone market

still a small percentage of what we're spending on for manned aircraft. so as you mentioned or jane mentioned that basically the u 2 has been flying over 50 years, it is still going to have a role going forward t has the capability of flying out to 2050 based on the last upgrades. i certainly think the global hawk is going to be more competitive once they start putting the better sensor capability on board. >> where do you think more of the focus is right now? is it still the traditional military space for these companies like the huge projects, the huge contracts, or are they look to go now deploy this technology in more of a commercial way, especially the drone technology? >> yeah, the commercial market i still think is going to be very small in chair son to the military uav market, military uav is 10% currently of our spending on our weapons programs, that's going to continue to grow, but there's definitely going to be ballot ongoing between the role of unmanned versus manned aircraft. and with regard to nor tlop

moving forward in this face, there are smaller players like dgi that come to mind. are you going to have to start following the drone industry separate or is this going to be a part in change in aviation and mobility n terms of your coverage area what do you think the next five or ten years look like and does lockheed eventually get on board? >> the secret out there about lockheed is that they actually have more classified uav programs than they currently do in terms of the known programs. so even if the u 2's role was diminished lockheed martin did s. going to be just fine in the uav market. i still think the military market in terms of the overall size is where most of the focuses going to be for a long time. >> peter, thank you for joining us. fascinating. >> thank you. >> that's peter ah r rmand. the exhaust will be the backdrop for the battle of billionaires.

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he has starred in a reality show, he is a billionaire and now he's talking seriously about running for president. are you there, mark? >> yeah, i'm here, kelly. how are you doing? >> great. welcome to the program. we appreciate your time. the question foremost on everybody's mind as we get closer to 2016 is how seriously are you considering a run for president? >> not at all. i'm not going to run. i don't really have any interest in running, but i do give donald a lot of credit for changing the game. i mean, we are at the point -- up until now you had to be a perfect candidate, you couldn't have had a drink growing up and i think donald changed that is correct he made it okay to be an imperfect candidate and i think that's a good thing. >> to go back to the genesis of this whole discussion, mark, correct me if i'm wrong, you were saying if it was you versus trump you would crush him no doubt about it. >> yeah, there's no question about t i think what it has come down to i think hillary has blown it, i think there's no

chance for her to win an election, i think she has just lost her shot. i think when i said i would crush trump it's less on dompd and more on the republican party. the republican party really requires all their candidates to conform on all the social issues and i think that is just so out of touch with what's happening in america today that whether it would be me, whether it would be a mic bloomberg, whoever else it would be potentially even joe biden, they are going to crush the republicans and i think that's what it comes down to. in this case dai and age you can't just have one party line, you have to take into account what's going on in the world. >> yeah. well, we have seen this before, ross per row got a large share of the popular vote when he ran in '92 it's not out of the question for that to happen again. if you had to vote today, if you were going to the polls and will to cast your vote who would it be for? >> there is there is no reasons to go into hypotheticals, we are a year away, everybody is calling names and responding to

threats or whatever it may be. i mean, i wouldn't pick a candidate right now. >> that's exactly t you mentioned you've just dismissed the whole gop field, you've said that hillary clinton has flown blown it. who does that leave? >> we have over a year to go. i don't think the game is -- we haven't gotten into the final stretch. i think there's still candidates to come, hopefully on the democratic side, and if all we had were the candidates that we have today i think, again, once they really start getting into the issues and it's way too early for them to do that, they would be crazy torques then we will start to get a better understanding, start to get a better understanding of who legitimately can be in the office. right now it's just -- it's all, you know, social media driven. what's the best for a headline, what's the best in 140 characters. they are just playing checkers. so there is no reason for them to do otherwise. so there is really no reason to try to pick a horse at this time. >> do you think that the reason why a candidate who is a

billionaire, whether it's donald trump, whether it's yourself appeals to people is because in a sense it's not about political dog ma it's about success and sometimes success means just having to make the right call in different situations, having to negotiate with different partners and deal with a bunch of different interest groups. >> without question. to get to where donald is myself, michael bloomberg, whoever it may be, i'm not saying you ever to be a billionaire, but to get there you have to have gone through challenges and had levels of success and done -- and been pretty much the antithesis of a politician. there is no one right answer to every question when you are a businessperson like there is for a politician. you don't talk to your poll officers before you answer a question. you don't want to consultants before you answer a question. you look at the problem and you try to come up with solutions. i think donald and carly fiorina and dr. carson have done a better job of that than the

traditional politicians and we haven't seen anything of that caliber on the democratic side. >> right. it sounds like the cuban field at this point would come down to a carson, to a carly fiorina who a donald trump who on the front page of the wall street journal today the entire story is about how much he is not operating with a traditional political approach. >> and that's right. i think the ultimate -- the ultimate irony, kelly, right now is i would bet any amount of money that donald trump has spent the least amount of money of any of the candidates. without question. i bet he has spent so far less because he is not approaching it in a traditional political sense. he's not -- he's not just turning to a pollster, he is not buying all the polls or turning to a political consultant to get answers, as best i can tell from the other candidates that's exact compactly how they approach things and i think that in and of itself is a big deal and the irony is great in this run. >> again, mark, people love the

candor, whether it comes from yourself or from him or whomever, but at the end of the day there needs to be a certain prerogative when it comes to what is the point of being president? what are the policies? what is it that you want to get done? what are the most pressing things from your point of view? i mean, are we talking about tax reform, are we talking about relationships with other countries, trying to address the migrant situation in the middle east? is it something specific that needs to be tackled here? >> i think there is a very specific list, income equality is a big issue, you know, no business, particularly a retail business, needs the uncertainty of some type of social unrest happening outside their door or the potential of their building getting burned down so we need to deal with that. we need to deal with trust in the markets. if you make $30,000 a year and you bust your butt to save $100 a month for your future or your child's future and put it in the bank it's going to earn no interest whatsoever and in five years you are going to have $6,200 or something like that.

so, you know, people who are really working hard in this country, really can't put themselves in a position to ensure their future because they don't trust the stock market, they don't understand the stock market, so they have really got no place to put their money, their hard earned money to earn a return. that's got to be the very first thing and that has nothing to do with immigration, that has nothing to do with really anything but trust in the markets. look, everybody you bring on on a day to day basis, kelly, nobody.really staurns what's going on and if you are just somebody who busts their butt at work and is trying to figure out the best way to protect their future, you are not going to put your money in the stock market. you just don't understand it or trust it. that's issue in number -- that's the biggest issue we face, income inequality and preparing fort future. >> that explanatory role is to important around here. i know you spoke with our eamon jafrs. >> first of all, a fascinating e-mail exchange over the past week or so one of the things i

was trying to get out in that piece that we have on cnbc.com about you and your comments is this idea of a three come ma'am potus. i'm a one comma guy myself but you talk to three comma guys all the time. how many build flares are in this country who might be looking at donald trump and saying do you know what, i think i can do this? >> i tubing a lot more one comma guys than three comma guys, those are my friends. >> good. >> i think what donald is demonstrating and i made the point earlier that he is spending the least amount of money of the candidates. i think up -- you know, when we look at a billionaire candidate we think they can afford t they don't need to take money from special interest groups, but with the success donald has had in understanding how to use media rather than having to buy media, i think, you know, we will see other candidates that are businesspeople that understand social media, understand traditional media, but can watch and see what

donald has done and realize you don't have to spend $100 million, you don't have to spend $500 million like candidate -- or more like candidates did in the 2012 election. and so i think, you know, not i setting a tone in being a free-thinker, a free speaker, whether you agree with him or not, he's also really demonstrating that if you take a different approach, at least at this point in the process, if you take a different approach than the traditional get elected and have a whole staff of consultants and analysts working for you, you can do it for a lot less money. and i think to me, you know, the candor is key. the fact that he's an imperfect candidate is key and sets the tone. but also the way he's running the race means that anybody that understanding media today and has a platform can run. and i think that is a big deal. >> that is for sure. and again, mark, yourself included.

you are not getting involved in the 2016 race? >> no. i mean, i think i can have a bigger impact right now in doing a lot of the other things i'm doing in terms of -- i've invested in well over 100 small businesses and talking to school kids and so many ways i think i can impact society. and i just don't have the temperament. at least not at this point, to be a politician. >> mark cuban, thank you for sharing your thoughts with us this afternoon. >> thanks kelly. >> and eamon javers, thanks to you as well. much more "closing bell" right after this.

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a new york regulator is starting a data retention deal with symphony head investors and we'll hear more about it after this. marry thompson joins us with the details. how big of a deal was this piece, mary. >> i think it is an important deal in the introduction to the world so to speak. the new york department of financial services had feared the user's ability to delete instant messages would hinder future investigations into insider trading or rate rigging. so they will keep all messages

for seven years. and golden sacks will be one and others have agreed to storen corruption keys with an in dependent custodian. goldman keeps information for longer than seven years so this is an added layer of protection. in a statement, acting superintendent said this is a critical issue since chats and other electronic records have provided key evidence into investigation of wrongdoing on wall street. it is vital that regulators act to ensure that these records do not fall into a digital black hole. the four banks among those investing $66 million in symphony whose chat platform see as a rival to the bloomberg terminal. it was called a valuable asset and thousand happy to work with regulators. back to you. >> thank you. what is interesting, they might

as well get ahead of this one, so several years time when the feds are going after them for information they are not trying to deal with the issue then. >> absolutely. and this is a topic today. and there is discussion about the im chat room investigates, including the 4 x rigging and libor scandals. and the journal had an interesting piece on this today on trader speak. the one thing that i thought was weird was bip. but a tony means $500 billion and that was new to me. >> it seems like the authorities want to make sure this doesn't introduce regulatory problem but as they look for banks and other institutions to buy on to the new platform, this was probably a big hurdle for them, the lawyers to say we're not going to have a lesser standard and it won't be considered the same kind of communications. >> and they called it the bloomberg killer and wall street banks are behind it and it is

cheaper than the cost of that messaging service and it could go to other kinds of businesses. >> and while we're at it. this might be the i.m. version of brad katzaamma and it is a war on bloomberg, founded by a former bloomberg executive. >> a lot of competition in the space. >> but it doesn't have the analytics so you know how much people value that stuff. >> thank you. much more on that. that does it for us on "closing bell." coming up on "fast money," why they are saying to go long on bonds ahead of the fed decision. we hand it over now. everyone loves the picture i posted of you. at&t reminds you it can wait.

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"fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets overlooking time square. i'm melissa lee. the traders are tim seymour, brian kelly, and guy aamy. bonds on the volatile market this year. and where alibaba might head for the doors. herb greenberg weighs in. but to the top story of the day. apple is on pace to beat the iphone first week record. and while that may sound good, it is what they did not say tha