pete, set it up and look ahead to tomorrow because that's what's matters most. >> i think going into the second half everybody is focused on rates and everything else. i think this move in energy -- and this oil 5.5% move to the upside, keep an eye on the energy space. >> that does it for us. thanks for watching. we'll see you tomorrow for a big fed day. "power" begins now. >> "halftime" is over. the second half of the trading day starts now. >> welcome to "power lunch." will it happen, should it happen? where wall street stands right now on the question of an interest rate hike. >> a mega deal brewing in the beer industry, but will regulators raise a glass. shares of the two companies involved are soaring right now. >> and under armour shares surging. the stock up 45% this years trouncing its arch riflenike.

we start with the equity markets which is moving higher as the fed meets to decide whether or not to begin raising rates. let's look at the numbers with the dow, the nasdaq and the s&p. the nasdaq and the s&p are now tracking for their second consecutive week of gains. something that neither has done in nearly three months. but, ty, the real action here is in the oil market this hour with oil soaring. wti crude up by 5.3%. it could still be the biggest daily gain since august 31st when wti jumped nearly 9%. brent crude, and we've been talking about the spread there narrowing, haven't we, ty? but it's up by 4% as well. jack jackie deangelis is joining us from the nymex. lots of people bringing lots of reasons to the table as to why we took off. you tell us what you're hearing. >> i have three main reasons that we're moving higher, a spike like this today, 5.5%. the first is that bullish eia report. a drawdown in inventories.

cushing down nearly 2 million barrels. refinery runs are going up, and also u.s. production falling closer to 9.1 million barrels a day. those imparts weorts were down . the second reason, u.s. boots on the ground in syria. special op forces are engaged with the kurds there. the defense officials are saying this is an advise and assist role but anytime we have conflict like that or an issue like that in the middle east, it certainly sends these prices up. back to you, mandy. >> thank you very much for that, jackie. we'll keep following that big story because energy stocks are one of the reasons why the overall market has been keeping its gains. dominic chu, give us a market flash. >> energy stocks are leading all s&p 500 sectors higher. the best of the ten up by 2.5% so far. near the highest levels on that jump in oil prices jackie was referring to. the sector is tracking for its best day since august but is still bear market territory. the trend has been down for

energy stocks. down over 30% from last year's september highs. exploration and production companies are helping to lead the way higher. you've got names like apache, newfield, chesapeake on the natural gas side, anadarko, up 4% to 5%. 6 out of the top 10 performers in the s&p all in the energy sector. back over to you. >> we'll keep following that. let's get to bob pisani on the floor of the stock exchange. >> the important thing is we are continuing our trend of moving up the day before a fed meeting. yesterday we had people front running that, happening again today. we moved up going into the european close but particularly after the energy reports came out, and i think that's a significant factor in why the markets moved to the upside. everybody wants to any if the fed is going to hike or not. i don't know i just look at the market and here is what i see on this fed hike question, yes or no. stocks are up, gold and commodities are up, the dollar is down, banks, which are interest rate sensitive are

generally mixed but to the downside, and the vix, the volatility index is in a down trend. all this would suggest is the market is not expecting a rate hike or if it is it's certainly a de minimis one. dominick is right about oil moving things around. continental resources, you can see right after the reports came out around 10:30, those stocks moving to the upside. back to you. >> all right, bob. thank you very much. it is, of course, t minus one day until that much anticipated decision. policymakers kick off their meeting today. where do the nation's top money managers, investment strategists, and economists starnd on the possibility of a rate hike tomorrow? steve liesman asked them and he's here with the results of the exclusive cnbc fed survey. >> big news in this survey today. we have for the first time in the five years we've been doing this a plurality of respondents think the fed will raise in the meeting that is in the month of the survey.

49%, up changed from august, think they will hike in september. 43% say no, and you have 8% don't know. it's a very, very close call with a plurality saying, yes, it happens. let's look at the broader time line and what you see here, that's not -- that's the time clock, not the time line. there's the time line. well done, guys. what you see when you look at this is ultimately that they have pushed back, in other words sooner, the whole policy outlook here. they said they were going to hike rates january 16. when everybody was all upset and anxious about the chinese slowdown and the market volatility. the average is november 2015, what we showed you earlier was the median of september. i guess it's not really working all that great. what i can tell you is the balance sheet, september 2016, that's been pulled back.

decline in august, i believe. and the terminal rate over here, third quarter, 2018, now it is first quarter 2018. so everybody happens a little sooner. what they had done is pushed everything ahead because of the concern. want to show you one other chart here which is the fed funds path, and looking at 0.37 for a fed funds rate at the end of the year. 1.17. but when you take a wide view of this, take a look at what's happened. the original forecast for 2016 when we first asked this in august of '14 was 2%. almost 100 basis points or 80 basis points has been dialed out of market expectations for the fed funds rate. art hogan says the fed may well do the right thing, raise rates in september at the wrong time and still not move markets much as we have been pricing in this move for a while. john has been steadfast throughout says there is no justification based on the fed's data dependenciy for keeping

rates at zero. mandy, all this stuff is online, the full survey and an article i've written, cnbc.com. >> as a veteran fed watcher what do you personally think? >> i think they don't do it. i think it's a close call but they would rather markets be less volatile and i don't think they kneesly laid the groundwork. will i be surprised if they do it? no, but that's playing both sides, i know. >> always good to play both sides. a brock buster deal is dealing with anheuser-busch working on a takeover for sab miller. shares of both companies are soaring. anheuser is up by 8%. david faber is here with details. a lot of hurdles for this still to happen though, right, david? >> that is true, mandy. it would, of course, be one of the largest deals of all time if it did.

there has been no shortage of speculation about this possibility for years. but this morning the clock did actually begin to tick, if you will, on budweiser making this bid for sab when sab came out with a press release saying they had been contacted. under uk takeover law, 28 days is all they have unless it is extended by sab in which to make the formal bid for the company. budweiser has said we are only going to move ahead if we get a recommended deal. meaning they're not going to make a hostile bid. it will be one that the board of sab feels is appropriate, and it will move ahead after that. now, the key for sab may be very well focused on its two largest shareholders, altri, which owns 27% and the santa domingo company who own 14%. they have a significant board representation as well. they may all be represented by the same banker, something of a

positive sign if you're budweiser. while they have 28 years, it's been years they have been thinking about this, so one would think they are able to move fairly quickly with the proposal. that said, there are no shortage of things they have to go through, including hitting the financing markets for an enormous sum of money that could approach $50 billion or 60 billion pounds. they also have to put a bid in there that sab is willing is accept and that the santa domingos and altrias is willing to accept. do they want more stock in their deal to make it more tax-free. the more cash there is for bud, the more accretive the deal will be. analysts think it will be accretive at a 70/30 or even 60/40 split. it's not just sab, it's not just bud, it's not just altri. look at the tap, molson coors.

50% of a joint venture they have to sell miller in the united states is owned by sab. under that deal there is no doubt that would have to be divested. the expectation is molson coors would buy the 50%. it does need to happen if this deal is to go forward. it doesn't mean they have to announce and get all these investments done in 28 days or 56 days, but they certainly start to have to put the wheels in motion for all of that to happen. so to your point, mandy, certainly many things that will have to occur here, but the odds of success here do appear to be higher than you might expect because bud has been at it for a long time thinking about it. the financing markets are at least in its favor right now, perhaps it wants to move before rates really move in a significant way higher. and one would expect given altria's decision to take itself out of a conference, it at least has some sense as to what the

proposal will look like. it has said in the last year it would be open to potentially selling that stake in sab though it has also said it's perfectly happy to remain a large shareholder in that company. it's going to be interesting 28 days or maybe a little bit more. back to you. >> plenty of beers could be downed in that time. david, thank you very much. shares of fed ex taking a big hit right now. let's look at the chart of fed ex. the parcel delivery giant missing earnings estimates. down 4.5% or thereabouts cutting its outlook. why are we focusing on fed ex? why not. it's widely seen as a barometer of the economy. morgan brennan is here with more. >> it certainly is seen as a barometer of the economy. like we have seen throughout the transport sector, fed ex's business is catering to businesses doing well. first quarter earnings at fed ex increasing 20%, but it still fell short of estimates. the delivery giant also trimming its full year eps guidance on weakening conditions, and a one

time expense in its ground domestic unit. heading into the holidays, executives saying they expect another record peak season. they're planning to high upward of 55,000 seasonal workers, 10% more than 2014. also discussing rate increases including a new surcharge on oversized ground packages that will take effect in november. this is executives say companies are electing to ship these packages rather than handle them in their own stores. if you look at shares of fed ex, they are down as you mentioned about 4.5%. down about 15% so far on the year on that earnings miss, on that lowered guidance. take a look at shares of competitor u.p.s., that's trading lower, down 1% in sympathy as well. >> sympathy, i like that, it's nice companies have that, or stocks. two big readings on the health of housing if the fed raises rates. will home buying take a hit? plus, under armour shares hitting new highs. they got brady, they got spieth,

they got it going on. ceo kevin plank will join us exclusively to lay out his growth plan. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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and getting into trouble. talk. read. sing. your words have the power to shape their world. learn more at first5california.com/parents welcome back to "power lunch." let's get a check on gold prices. right now up by nearly 2%, $1,122 the last trade there. coming off the highs of the day right now, but still up by

about, again, that decent mark, nearly 2% on that data showing a surprise drop in u.s. inflation last month that's helping that case here. gold miners are rising on that bit of news, perhaps the fed doesn't raise rates. the market investigatoe -- if yu look at some of the components, all up. gold miners certainly a focus but the gold miners and gold prices have been in a relative down trend. back over to you, ty. two important readings on the health of housing on this fed day. diana olick has it covered for us in washington. di? >> we saw a pretty steep drop in mortgage applications last week. both applications to refinance and to purchase a home even though mortgage rates really didn't move that much. refis took the hit the worst as they are most rate sensitive. rates are slightly higher than they have been but not really a lot higher. we got home builder sentiment for september, up one point.

confidence is still gaining steadily but interesting, the one part of the survey that was down was the sales expectations over the next six months. you ask if all this changes if the fed raises rates? well, the fed does not directly correlate to higher mortgage rates but it does open the door for lenders to raise rates. for home builders it won't be a huge issue. it could have a bigger effect on mortgage refinances which as we said are incredibly rate sensitive. more on realty check.cnbc.com. >> if the fed does raise rate, what direct impact will it have on the housing market whether it's refinancing or new applications? red fin's chief economist nela richardson joins us. when we try to answer that question, first of all, have you heard any mortgage brokers voice concern about a potential rate rise? have you heard potential home buyers voice concern over that? >> well, whatever happens tomorrow, one thing is concern,

home buyers will react differently than traders. home buyers don't think in basis points, they think in babies. they want to start families. that's why they purchase homes, or they want to move to a new location. what we have heard across the board is buyers will carry on and hopefully they'll find a loan. that's the key problem. credit availability, that they will be able to obtain a mortgage to make that home purchase. not necessarily the rate. >> what's credit availability looking like now? >> it's getting better. it's not great. it's still really hard for a lot of people to get mortgages, especially if you don't have pristine credit. that's the thing, that's the key factor that's driving the markets now. it doesn't matter how low the interest rate is, if you can't get a mortgage, you can't get a mortgage. that's what people are more concerned about rather than whether it's 3.9% or 4.1% for the 30-year fixed. >> can we extrapolate what level would rates have to rise to before you would see significant restriction. >> we surveyed home buyers and

we found that 85% of those surveyed said they would carry on with their home purchase plans even if rates topped 5%. that's significant. it tells you what the state of the home buyer mind is. we are not talking about people who are making a trading decision in the near term. they're making life decisions over the long term and no bump up in rates are going to derail that for most home buyers. >> nela, great to talk to you. thank you for setting the record straight. ty, over to you. >> still ahead, under arm you're me meeting with investors today. the stock up 50% so far this year. that's a lot better than it's arch rival nikcle. what's ahead for the athletic giant? kevin plank will join us exclusively with his growth strategy. we'll be right back. or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night.

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stocks continue to edge higher as the fed meets to debate rates. the dow is up more than 100 points this afternoon. s&p gaining as well. now, less than 7% from its may high. our next guest is wally walker, the president and founder of hannah road capital. up for the year unlike a lot of long/short equity funds. wally, welcome back. >> good to be here. >> let's talk a little bit about the fed. would you just like to see them do something to get it over with? >> i would like to put it in the rear-view mirror. i think the markets will do what they're going to and i'm set up

for either reaction but i think to put it in the rear-view mirror is the best thing. >> do you think they need to raise interest rates? >> i have no idea what they're going to do. my main concern is if anyone would pay attention to my fed. maybe i have been on the other coast for too long, but the 25 basis point increase is lost on me. i know you get to go to d.c. which is a good thing. i think the ongoing cycle and trend are much more important. >> we're all about fueling the sturm and drang. let's talk about your position. we're 45% net long. what would make you change one way or another and how would you do it? >> i'm kind of hoping for a big dislocation tomorrow. i don't know what to expect, but i will increase my exposure if we get a big sell-off and do the converse if the opposite happens. >> right. so let's talk a little bit about positions in your fund. you have a lot of small cap companies in there. you also have big ones like the disneys and so on and so forth.

give me an example, and i know that you hold a lot of positions for a long time. you trade around the margins, but you have some that you've owned for years. give me a classic walker position. >> well, a company i just visited called atlas financial. you're listeners wouldn't have heard of it. it's a small insurance company based outside of chicago. they have guided this year at 30% to 50% revenue growth. they have guided that. you don't see many of those. >> no. >> they're guiding to a return on equity in the high teens to low 20s. if they do that and the return on equity is in the low to mid teens, they're going to earn somewhere 2 bucks, i think even more next year. the stock is trading 17 plus. very cheap with a growth aspect to it. >> let's talk about how more broadly speaking you see the market as set up for the remainder of this year, no matter what the fed does. give me your thoughts there and what are the things that are on the horizon that worry you or

that you'll be watching in the fourth quarter. >> politic this is washington are always a concern. >> government shutdown. >> once we get through tomorrow everyone will focus to the end of the monday and we'll see what happens there. i think we're pretty well set up towards the end of the year because we're going to have a race amongst people in my business to try to outperform, particularly if they haven't year-to-date or maybe even most as you point out have not. china worries me. when jim cha knows was on cnbc recently and i know jim from 25 years ago, i think we looked about the same 25 years ago. >> what happened to us? >> what did happen? >> we're here though. and when he says, i know how thorough he said, however bad you think china is, it's worse, that gives me pause. and the fact you can't trust the data. we don't know how bad it could be and now we're more interdependent economies than we've ever been. if it's worse and much worse than we think it is, it will effectwally played in the nba,

time champion, ran the supersonics. i can't leave without asking your opinion. is it lebron's years? >> the finals last year were among the most entertaining. cleveland will be good but to beat the warriors who are not only great but as much fun to watch as i remember in a while, going to be very difficult. the west is very tough. i'm not as current i once was. >> well, you have done something else. you have done hana road capital. >> to the bond market now and rick santelli. rick, what's happening today after that eyebrow-raising move higher in yields yesterday? >> well, traders have mores a pen -- look at a one and two day of 10s. yesterday we had the pop. today distribution mode but what's noteworthy is we haven't given anything back. it's not only the long end. look at the one-year bill which we auctioned off yesterday, a

5-year chart. this is really a telling chart as well as the market prepares for normalization. foreign exchange, a lot of talk about the level of the dollar in the fed. it had a tie on march 13th when it starts but hasn't gone anywhere. but look at the trade weighted dollar on the chart starting the same day. you can see it shows a lot more horse power. want to pay attention to both. >> thank you very much, rick. under armour meeting with investors. the stock hitting new highs this year. soaring about 50% this year. easily outperforming nike, so can the athletic upstart just keep on doing it? under armour kevin plank joins us exclusively with his growth plan. that is next. do stay with us here on "power lunch."

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hello, i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. centcom commander general lloyd austin telling the senate armed

services committee that special operations forces are on the ground in syria. he did not elaborate. defense officials telling nbc news that u.s. special operations forces are assisting kurdish forces in their fight against isis in northern syria. secretary of state john kerry says russia has proposed military to military talks with the u.s. on syria. he says he is discussing with the white house and the pentagon on the next steps in order to determine the best way forward. dozens of left wing students in the philippines hurling paint at the seal of the american embassy in manila to protest the u.s. military presence in that country. riot police disbursing the students but they stormed past a police barricade after dawn. at least six people were arrested. and pope francis says he's looking forward to his visit to the u.s. with, quote, great hope. he made the comment during his vehic weekly audience. the pontiff will deliver only 4 of the 18 addresses in the u.s.

in english. the rest will be in his native spanish. back to you guys, ty and mandy. >> thank you very much. let's take a look at the gold prices right now which are currently closing. brick sitting there up by 1.5%. $1,119. we saw earlier the gold miners are rising nicely on the back of that move. silver, copper, pa laid yum, and platinum are all moving higher as well and the dollar is on the back foot which helps. tyler, over to you. >> the dow up about 95 points right now. stocks higher generally on this fed day. let's get today's trading action from bob pisani at the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> we're about to break out of an interesting range we've been in recently. august 24, 25 lows, we are now on the verge of breaking past

thoughs l those lows. right now the s&p 500 up a little more than 0.5%. that's right in track for the regular rally we see ahead of the fomc meeting. the s&p is up an average 0.49%. we'll see that move likely happen today again once again. so big discussion here about how much influence the fed has, and, guys, the important thing is 80% of annual excess stock returns in the united states occur on those eight fomc days, and this is the 24 hours before it. so, guys, very important move here and we're on track for that rally. back to you. >> thank you very much. let's go uptown to nasdaq and bertha coombs. >> hi, tyler. we're also seeing the rally at the nasdaq. what's interesting is the small caps, russell 2000 are up more than the nasdaq which is only up 0.3%. but it's really the nasdaq 100 that's doing very well. the nasdaq is up about 2% for

the month, but the large cap nasdaq 100 is within half a percent of breaking even for the quarter, one of the few indexes that is. apple is not really part of that rally, and apple has not contributed to that move when it comes to the quarterly increase. ios 9 mobile system is being released today on time, but apple operating system update has been postponed because of a bug. >> thank you very much, bertha. let's move on and talk about what investors should be doing. joining us, christina hooper, u.s. investment strategist and ury landis. christina, we were speaking with another guest and he was saying he just wants to put it in the rear-view mirror. even kuroda was saying it would be a good thing, it would show confidence in the u.s. economy. do you agree we just need to get this over and done with? >> yes. but we also need to recognize

that it's been almost a decade since we raised rates and in that time it's been an extraordinary set of circumstances. we've lived through unconventional monetary policy, qe, 1, 2, and 3. so don't be surprised to see the fed move tomorrow but perhaps only move 12.5 basis points. >> just like a token, a little symbol saying we're getting the process started. >> we're getting the process start. we don't want to rock markets but we need to move. we should have moved already and we need to. do you think there's the potential for a little irony in play, that if they don't move and we see low rates for much longer, that maybe the market will start to think, hang on, what does that say about the growth outlook and that could be bad for risky assets? >> absolutely. we think that the short-term reaction to not moving might be positive but over the ensuing weeks and months could be very negative because it's not a vote of confidence in the economy. >> what's your view on all of

this? >> well, i think they'll probably raise 25 tomorrow but give an indication before they do more they really need to need more data. i don't know if we'll get another raise the rest of the year. they kind of know they have to do it. china gives them an excuse to be their usual dovish selves. i think we will see something but some very tame language coming out of it and i don't think markets will move much. >> does it change anything in tirn terms of your zrat ji? >> not really. i don't think the fed is going to do something way outside the realm of expectation and, therefore, it's really going to be i think a stock picker's market the rest of the year. >> just very quickly, energy is up 1.8% as a sector today and certainly crude itself i think is up by over 5%. do you like energy, but a lot of people have been burned trying

to pick a bottom but do you think now is a reasonable time to get in? >> i think it's a good time to get in because there's so much bad news out there. you have the opec minister saying we better get used to this for years. to me it's the kind of gloom saying that goes right before buying opportunities. so, you know, you have to be a little bit bold to do it right now and be a little patient, but i think over time energy works higher. >> okay. what about you sector wise? >> technology. technology is historically done well during rate hike cycles. we see more opportunity than ever before. we have solid growth potential there, valuations look relatively attractive. it's a good place for investors to go. >> thank you very much to both of you for joining us today. and you can go to powerlunch.cnbc.com to see what could signal the end of the bull market. that's all on powerlunch.cnbc.com. under armour stock on the fast track so far this year, up 50% leaving nike far behind. so what's next for under armour?

we'll ask the man in charge. our exclusive interview with the ceo of ua kevin plank. that is straight ahead. the cnbc trend tracker data board is brought to you by the cme group.

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fancier ones. >> that's a nice gift. j.pmorgan chase up grading hersey. and intracellular therapy gettingget ing a major boost. it's up by 76%. anding ing ing a gra chemical s is up by 1%. and you arm our hosting its first investor day in more than two years. the stock this year is up 50%, well outperforming its bigger rival, nike. what's ahead for under armour, sara eisen joins us from baltimore with the ceo, kevin plank. >> good to see you, tyler, and kevin plank, thanks for having us here on investor day. >> thank you for coming to

baltimore. >> the big news out of the conference is the $7.5 billion in sales by 2018. is that ambitious to almost double your revenues in a few years? >> we're celebrating our tenth year as a public company and we've averaged 30% top line, 30% bottom line growth. if you net out our targets, it's a 25% growth in three years. we grew 32% last year. we said all along we are a growth company and we think it's in line with where the opportunity is pulling us. i think maybe people will say is there more more growth available. we're going to add close to $1 billion in revenues this year, we have to manage the growth at some level but we're incredibly excited, incredibly bullish about the momentum of the brand, the athletes we have, the stable, where we're headed and it's a great ambition. >> you know what the next question is, nike is almost $30 billion in revenue. how long will it be to catch up to that? >> the good news about our industry, it's not a zero sum

game. we don't need anyone else to lose for under armour to win. we've been incredibly focused on ourselves and i think that plays through with our innovation going back to the stephen curry, jordan spieth, tom brady, we have a unique story. i think the consumer is making a specific choice to choose our brand. this isn't about, a -- it is about market expansion. you will see us do that, but we're also going to take market share as well. so we may gobble up some share from some smaller competitors and we expect to take share from anybody out there as well. >> international you just mentioned. you were in asia for five days. that's a huge growth opportunity for you specifically china which the whole world is worried about slowing down. you have a small presence but what are you seeing? are you still looking at it in a growth opportunity? >> we are in five city this is five days. it was like a tour with stephen curry where we went from baltimore to oakland to tokyo to manila to beijing to shung king,

30 million people -- >> and they know stephen curry. jo and they know who stephen curry is. in manila it filled up a 10,000 seat arena and thousands of people outside. and we ended in shanghai with opening a new store in one of the main shopping districts. so i think it's a great expression i think of the opportunity we have. you know, we just announced we'll finish the year with 12% of our revenues coming from outside the united states -- >> how much does that go to in 2018 which we're looking at? how much of that revenue will be from international? >> we're building off our 2013 investor goals. we're a year early with reaching that milestone with the company and we're listing that we'll continue to grow our international business at a large clip. we'll be north of 15% will come from outside the united states by 2018. >> with steph curry since that is one of your all-star athletes, what would you say to those though who say you can't scale. nike still has more than 95%

market share of basketball running shoes. it's so great to have such a big star, but what do you do with that? >> that would be loser talk if you're talking about what we can't do because of what someone else is doing. there's people who told us we shouldn't enter basketball. i don't think anybody two years ago would have predicted we would be in the position we are now the mvp and mvp champion who has a product that did incredibly well. we are launching the curry 2 product. we will be in the signature basketball business. steph curry is a great friend a great partner to the brand. we're going to build a billion dollar business with steph curry. that will take market share from others and hopefully expand the business. >> who else are you going after? what athlete do you want next? >> why would i tell you that at this point? but i think whoever it is they're probably going to be pretty good. i think we're proud of our track record and i think we've put points on the board where it

matters. whether it's golf with jor dna spieth, football with tom brady, or misty copeland which was probably not even considered an athlete before and i think we really entertained and really opened the aperture of women's sports and women athleticism with doing that and then, of course, with steph. so we've got a great young guy in emmanuel amut yea and across every discipline. there's new striker for -- >> the rugby player for the 49ers. >> he's unbelievable, isn't he? i think he started -- he got his feet wet in the nfl and he'll be a great story. >> all right. we'll leave it there on the players which has been a good story for you. kevin plank, no loser talk. >> no loser talk ever. live from the under armour headquarters in baltimore. >> thank you very much. we're 24 hours away from the most anticipated fed statement maybe of all time really given the amount of talk about it. will or won't the fed raise interest rates? that is the big question.

and whether they do nothing, it is going to be a sus senpen sus day.

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stocks higher ahead of the fed. the dow up 96 points but the real action is in oil with crude rallying 5%. gold mining stocks are also on the move. numont mining up 6%. and under armour hitting new highs. kevin plank saying he's confident his company can achieve more than 15% international sales growth by 2018. right now under armour getting about 12% of sales overseas and, of course, the quote of the day i think is no loser talk. anyway, if you missed any of the big stories, go visit powerlunch.cnbc.com. ty? >> a number of $100 million homes have come on the market in recent months. mine isn't one of them, but unlike last year, none are

selling and some are dropping in price. robert frank has that story. >> we're going to show you the most expensive homes in america, including an aspen ranch with a special oxygen theater, a long island mansion with an indoor lazy river, and a 100,000 square foot mansion. we'll tell you the prices and why they're not selling coming right up. alaska. finally. the search for brown bears begins. denali highway. low on gas. pit stop. fill up. double points. yep, that's cold. tired. day 2. coffee. eggs. double points. beautiful. majestic... nothing. where are you, bear? warm. warmer. warmer. yes.

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a number of $100 million homes have come on the market in recent months, but unlike last year, none are selling, and some are even dropping in price. robert frank is here with that story. you're calling them the $100 million zombie homes. >> exactly. they are the ultimate bubble indicators. $100 million listings are piling up fast but while they're getting a lot of attention, they aren't attracting many buyers. brokers estimate there are 20 homes in the u.s. priced at $100 million or more. last year three of them sold. this year we haven't soled a single one. most brokers say the listings are way overpriced. the latest is this one in kings point, long island. 60,000 square feet of living

space, 35 bathrooms, a hair salon, wine room, indoor racquetball court and a private pier for your 200 foot yacht. price tag for this, $100 billion. bill koch's 82 acre rarnch is o the market. it has lots of cabins, outbuildings, and the ponds are stocked with trout. that's also $100 million. some sellers have cut their prices a little. billionaire jeff green shaved $46 million off his beverly hills estate. now it's only $149 million. that's cheap compared to the most expensive home for sale in america. it's an estate under construction over 100,000 square feet. price there, $500 million. >> i want a lazy river in my house. >> in the house, exactly. >> it looked like an airport, not a house, that last one in bel air. >> it's going to be the biggest home in america when it's done. >> more than 35 bathrooms?

>> more than -- a bathroom every day of the month, a different bathroom. >> you have a going problem. robert is going to stay right here. justin fikelson, a luxury broker, justin, welcome. what do you make of the fact that these $100 million babies aren't selling and more broadly what are you seeing in your market for high-end properties? >> yeah. you know, i think, first and foremost, a property is not going to sell for $100 million unless it's worth $100 million. so it's easy to overprice a property, but the fact is it's going to sit there if it's overpriced. we're still seeing big properties pop up. there's an off market right now being built for $500 million is going to be the list price and that's in the belaire area. i think the volatility in the international global markets are making foreign buyers step back.

are they going anywhere? no. and that's because investing in high-end he will estate in the united states has proven in the long term to be a great investment. >> does this trickle down? if we have trouble at the top does it suggest there will be trouble in the mid and lower end in time? >> no, i think there's a little bit of a softening of the market, but we're also seeing the midrange do pretty well. a $35 million house sold in san francisco in the last year. so, you know, i have a listing coming up in napa valley. napa is having a surge. $12 million houses are flying off the market especially if they're modern and done right. i don't think the luxury buyer is not there anymore. i just their it's easy to overprice a property. the volatility in the global markets will cause a little bit of a breather, a little bit of a step back, but, again, it's a great investment in the long term and i think these buyers will be back. >> you said there's a little

softening. when you look outside of san francisco you look at miami and new york, prices and price growth is coming down across the luxury sector and part of that is overseas but part of it may be this expectation of slightly higher interest rates and just a sense that assets overall are just overvalued even among the wealthy. do you think we're going to see lower prices or at least lower price growth outside of san francisco for the rest of this year and next? >> not necessarily. i think there's going to be a tiny bit of softening, but i think the main urban centers are still going to continually go up. maybe not at the 20% rate that they have been, but maybe 10% to 15% per year. so do i think it's going to topple? no. i think it's going to soften and then i think we are going to see further increases continuing in the urban centers, denver, portland, san francisco, l.a., new york, austin, and d.c. >> i think sellers are inclined to forget it is not they, but buyers, who set the price of

properties. my son wants me to buy the full house house in san francisco. you know the one i'm talking about? >> yeah. >> how much could i get that for, the full house house? >> so there's the full house house which is the postcard houses you see of san francisco and then there's the actual house. two different things. the actual house would probably be about $3 million. >> about $3 million. >> which is not a mansion in san francisco. i mean, that's a decent three bedroom family house. >> i was going to say you don't get much for your money for 3 plds in san francisco. >> have a great rest of the day. he appreciate it. >> thank you. >> and that will do it for the first hour of power. >> let's send it over to brian and melissa. >> thank you very much. it's nearly 2:00 on wall street and the same at the federal reserve in washington, d.c. where yn in just about 24 hours the federal reserve will announce one of its biggest policy decisions in years. have you heard about it? i'm brian sullivan.

melissa lee is at the nasdaq. the dow is higher by just over 100 points. the federal reserve is big and we will have much more on that. but in the past few hours we've gotten a new top story. the big move in oil and it's been driven by reports of american special forces operations helping out kurdish rebels in syria. more on that in a moment, but let's see what oil is doing. >> giving up a little bit of the gains we saw earlier today but still up by $2, wti that is. this is a big story pushing oil prices higher. as soon as traders here u.s. boots are on the ground in syria, of course, prices start to move up. there was some technical buying as well when we broke through that $46.50 range. i will highlight that defense officials are saying that it's an advise and assist role only at this point, but, of course, because of the migrant crisis, the news coverage of this situation has been very severe as well. so we're watching that. at the same time we had that iea

bullish report this morning. i covered some of those points earlier. that's also sending crude higher, but i have been saying for a couple days technically we've been poised for that breakout and it's not surprising to see it happen at this point. this is the biggest gain for a day that we've seen since august 31st. of course, that was the day we moved 8.8%. brent prices over the $50 mark. so traders are telling me the volatility continues from here. back to you. >> jackie, the outperformance of wti relative to brent, does it tell you that's the inventory data driving prices higher mar more so than geopolitical? >> it could be. we got the news at 10:30 and that's when we saw the first real strength in oil prices. certainly that data is important. there were a lot of different bullish factors, not just the inventory number on its face to send us higher. >> thank you very much, jackie. let's get more now on oil and the geopolitical situation with the chief commodity strategist

at rbc. when we started hearing rumors, the initial take was, wow, u.s. soldiers are on the ground in syria. that's not what we're talking about necessarily. we're talking about reports that maybe we knew where special forces were assisting kurdish fighters against syria. what it looks like we have learned which is new today and terrifying is that those forces we did train have pretty much been wiped out. >> this is a terrifying story. the reports are today that only about four to five rebels we've trained, the ones that are not isis, only four to five are still fighting and only about 100 to 120 are being trained. the goal is 5,400. we're really short of the goal. otherwise it's assad or isis. >> bottom line is we're losing. >> bottom line is -- >> or those forces are losing, the ones we helped train have been wiped out or have quit. >> 13 months into the bombing campaign against isis we are not

showing significant tactical gains on the ground and that's a terrifying prospect. >> so far this has not been -- it's a human story. >> not on oil story. >> it's a humterrible human tray story. it's not an oil story. does this become an oil story? >> what we say is the fastest route to $80 would be if isis decides to target middle east energy infrastructure. part of the reason we had the run up in prices is isis overran mosul. when that wasn't an isis attack on a major energy facility, people said they will never attack a facility. >> they need the money. >> they need the money. what they typically do is incorporate the energy infrastructure as part of their empire. isis runs an actual state but they could always change tactics. we've seen al qaeda groups in algeria target major facilities. >> they have taken over certain oil facilities, especially in the northern parts of iraq, most are in the south, if we rout

them or if somebody routs them in the north, could they do the scorched earth policy and just blow everything up and say the hell with you, if you're going to chase us out of here, we'll ruin your assets. >> we have seen them target key infrastructure, try to destroy a refinery. there is always a risk. i would like to saudi. there were reports of a security incident around a facility. there are plenty of exposed energy infrastructure in the middle east. if they decide to change their focus, that could be very significant for the oil markets. >> i want to know what's behind the trade today. do you think it is because of what's going on in syria or do you think it is thee ia inventory reports and is the path to $50 or $60, does that have to include geopolitical? >> we think it's mainly inventory numbers and the technical factors mentioned earlier. but the path to $50, $60 is signs that u.s. production is rolling or a supply outage somewhere else. supply got us into this, it's an oversupply situation. supply will have to get us out.

>> i want to follow up on melissa's point. we got an 8 million barrel inventory build. that's a lot. with all due respect, i don't see how people are taking this as some sort of bullish for prices data, 8 million inventory build is a big one. >> they were expecting a build in terms of crude. there was a products build and then a draw by crude inventories by 2 million. they beat the expectation. going into the data today they were expecting to be a build in the crude inventories and then you got the draw of 2 million barrels. >> and i'll -- melissa, because you guys will probably talk about this on "fast" tonight, it strikes me as a corporate earnings story. you beat the street so that's good, but what if the street had come down. i'm not sure why they are taking that as a good thing with the oil thing. >> i hear your point, brian, but it's all about expectations, right? that's what we trade off of.

>> but the broader story which you bring up is where do you see like a fundamental change in the market? i still think you have to have the expectation of a real role in u.s. production. you have to see this really starting to come down before people start to say on a fundamental basis we should get constructive. >> appreciate it. >> thank you. >> thank you for coming in, especially on short notice. >> thank you. let's take a look at where we stand in the stock market right now. stocks are higher on this fed day. taking off with oil's big move. let's get to bob pisani with more. just a couple points off the session highs for the s&p 500. >> and the important thing is, let's take a look at the s&p, we did move up when those -- when oil started moving up and whether it was the inventory levels or not, the s&p moved up dragging industries and energy. look at the e and p stocks. they all moved up 3%. they were up prior to the oil inventory numbers but all of them moved up 3% additionally and they're sitting near the

highs, pl highs. fed hike, yes or no? i don't know but i look at the markets. here is what i see. stocks are on the upside. gold and commodities are up, the dollar is down. and the vix is in a down trend for the last several days. melissa and brian, that suggests to me the market is not pricing in much expectation of a fed hike or at least even a de minimis one, maybe one-eighth of a point. >> thank you very much. the countdown is on. fewer than 24 hours the fed will announce one of its biggest policy decisions in years. as you might have guessed, we've got full coverage of that decision right here on cnbc and "power lunch." in the meantime, let us bring in cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman and, steve, one day ahead of the fed you've got new results from your fed survey on the outlook for the american economy. what does it say? >> and why is this important today? it's because the fed is going to be looking at jan outlook for the economy and making a decision based on the outlook for interest rates. first thing, this is the outlook

for gdp. let's go back to the call that our panel had back in december 2014. it was 3%. like a slinky coming down the stairs, we lost that dream of 3%. we've settled into this 2.4%, 2.5% for year year over year gnd percentage growth. do we get 3% next year? not quite. we were at 2.8%. settled in a little higher but not much into what looks more like a running or trend growth rate of the economy. there are a couple warning signs out there worth noting and i want to show you this running chart we have of the probability of a recession in the next 12 months. it's put at 18.6%. it's a little hard to know unless you can maybe zoom in over here but it's the first, second, third month in a row that this thing has gone up. 18.6%. if you come across here, you have to go back three years for the last time we were this high. not as elevated as it was back around times of concern about the sequester and other troubles

we've had, 34%, and the reason we have this concern about the u.s. economy is not so much because of the u.s. economy when we look at the number one threats to the u.s. economic recovery in the first place with a huge game is global economic weakness chosen by 45% of the 51 people who responded to the survey and that's up 16 points from the prior survey. next is always the perennial, sometimes first place, sometimes second place, 16%, that's down 5, and i want to show you some of the other ones, an interest rate rise by chosen by zero as the number one threat to the u.s. economy. that's down 12 points. and look at europe falling off the threat map. just 0% down 6 points from the prior survey. so when you look and take a broader look now of what really troubles the markets for the u.s. economy, it is all global weakness. they're not as concerned about tax and regulatory policy. interest rates in europe, well, those are not a big deal at all, brian. >> what about the possibility of

a u.s. government shutdown? isn't that on your threat list? >> it's not on the threat list right now. it's not there, although i hear stuff like 5/0/50 in terms of people thinking it could happen. >> steve, don't sleep tonight. >> i have to get some sleep because tomorrow is a big deal. >> i want you up all night studying. >> i am studying, yes. thinking of the questions we'll ask. >> are you going to d.c. >> i am. >> safe travels, my friend. 2:00 eastern is that decision. it is possible although not a majority probability according to wall street that we will get an interest rate increase. i'm in that camp. i seem to be the only one still. the decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern. then the big news conference, steve liesman will be there, 2:30 eastern time. that will all happen tomorrow on "power lunch." big day tomorrow. keep it right here now though because up next we are talking perhaps another threat to your money, and it is likely not what you think. bethany mclean is out with a new book and she's your guest next.

plus, the big buzz over deal talk in the beer world. could a new beer juggernaut be on the way. and why one fed watcher says the fed is caught in a trap, a greenspan trap. what is that? we'll tell you. stick around. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. at ally bank no branches equalsit's a fact..

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here is a list of concerns around your money right now. steve hit a few of them just a moment ago. you got china, you got the fed, you got the middle east, maybe weak u.s. growth, certainly those are all things to think about, but, believe it or not, some are beginning to believe a big risk may be coming from one of the big reasons we had the 2008 financial crisis. hard to believe, but fannie mae and freddie mac. together they control over $5 trillion in mortgage debt and what happens to them impacts everything from broader housing to the global economy which is why wall street and washington is locked in a battle to decide their fate and one of the reasons why noted author bethany mclean decided to write a book about them "shaky ground" is out now. why did you decide to write about fannie and freddie? >> so the silver lining of the financial crisis was that we were going to rethink home ownership and we were going to rethink these two giant companies, fannie mae and freddie mac, government

sponsored entire prierprisesnte we are seven years later, they still sit in the state known as conservatorship. they have, as you said, over $5 trillion in outstanding liability and because the u.s. government has decided to sweep all of their profits and use them as a little slush fund for budget deficit reduction, they have no capital. in that a time when they talk about big banks, they need more capital. fannie and freddie have none. >> i try to stay out of the political arena but i would say this, that there's been no more hypocritical issue from congress than fannie and freddie. they were making money for years, printing money, congress was taking their kitty every year. then they collapse, congress is shocked. calling for change, screaming about everything else. now their profitable again, and according to your background and your research and your book, they're back at it picking the pocket of fannie and freddie. >> that is exactly right.

it's a fantastic example of political dysfunction. and part of the reason is exactly that. the government has become adixed to the profits these two companies are throwing off. the other part of the problem is no one in congress seems able to tackle difficult subjects and this idea of fannie and freddie and what we do with the housing market and how we should structure it is a difficult subject. >> i think it was 2003, franklin rains, ceo of fannie mae hauled before congress, sort of berated, everyone in congress standing up, we need to make fannie and freddie smaller, they're too powerful. all they did was grow and we know what happened, then they collapsed. they're growing again -- >> they have grown since the financial crisis. the idea was reduce the presence of the government in the housing market. instead, it's bigger than it's ever been. >> i will try to defend them a little bit, or at least congress. are they smarter? >> to allow these two companies to operate with no capital? i don't think it's a smart decision. >> you mentioned it in the answer to the first question.

the treasury lifeline. does that protect taxpayers? because third quarter of 2008 i think the loss was about $20 billion for one quarter of just fannie mae, not even freddie mac. >> that's a great question, does it protect taxpayers. here is the issue, they have paid back much more than they took from taxpayers. they have paid about $240 billion but they haven't been able to keep ni any of it. if there's a wrinkle in the market it will not only affect the lives of every homeowners because it could cause them to -- >> forget taxes, you net $25,000 in profit every year. you save it up like you're supposed to so if you have a problem you have money in the bank. basically what congress is doing is all the money on top -- not all of it but a lot of it congress is taking so if something bad were to happen

again -- >> there's nothing. >> the only backstop is the treasury which, of course, is a code word for the u.s. taxpayer. >> it absolutely is. and there was even talk this spring of using fannie and freddie's profits to fund a highway infrastructure bill. >> why did ackman reference stalin in a discussion with you last night? >> you have a lot of very irate investors who did the work in 2009, 2010 and said, wait, these two companies are going to become really, really profitable really soon. we're doing to buy their stock. the u.s. government left it outstanding, 20% of it outstanding after the financial crisis. they even said at the time this might have value one day. there might be value for the shareholders one day. investors bought after doing the work. then the u.s. government comes along in the summer of 2012 and says, oh, no, we're changing the rules, we're taking 100% of the profits. >> that's a shakedown. >> it's a shakedown. investors are furious. i'm not a lawyer, i don't know if they're going to win their

cases. a lot of them are suing -- >> even if you were a lawyer, i'm not sure anybody could understand this case. it is so convoluted. >> correct. bethany mclean, new book, shaky ground, the strange saga of the u.s. mortgage giants. >> thank you so much. >> i got the title right. >> you did. >> up next, more on that big beer deal that might be brewing. plus a super sweet stock upgrade to talk about. it's all coming up when "power lunch" returns. stick around.

shares of fitbit jumping today after target announced it would begin offering the company's fitness trackers to its 335,000 associates for free. jim cramer will speak with the ceo james park on mad money tomorrow night and check out this lineup for tant's show. cisco and sales force joining jim on a special edition of "mad money" from cnbc's one market in san francisco. do not miss the show. >> will not. shares of molson coors getting a big pop today. in fact, the company, the best performer in the s&p 500 right now trading at all-time highs dating back to when coors went public in 1975. molson and coors merged back in 2005. but that molson coors deal is peanuts or maybe beer nuts compared to one that may be in

the works. anheuser-busch in bev saying it has approached sab miller over a possible takeover. that would be budweiser buying miller and would be a company that would control more than half the world's beer market. caroline levy is here. do you think this would happen actually? >> i definitely think it could happen. as you said, it's been rumored for many, many years and a.b. has proven that they've got the capability of doing big unexpected deals. that was when inbev bought budweiser. this would be about $100 million probably. we are talking very big numbers but, yes, it's possible. >> i'm sure regulators would have a very big look at this because you're talking 50% to 60% of the global beer market. they may not allow it to happen. they may -- if it does happen, they may cut a bunch of it off. i guess what i'm trying to understand is why is molson coors reacting so much. it's obviously being seen as a

derivative play but who might be the interested party? >> so the way this works is the -- definitely in the u.s. a.b. would not be able to keep the miller coors business, and so the reason that molson coors is up today is because they're seen as the natural buyer right of first refusal on the miller coors jv and it's seen as a great opportunity for them to merge the joint venture partnership and to take out a lot of costs and expenses and really create value. >> so carolyn, in terms of getting past antitrust, what sort of extractions do you think the companies will need to make and do you like that new company? >> well, first and foremost, we would have to exit the u.s. miller coors business. secondly, i'm not sure that they would have to exit the snow cre joint jen tour in chiventure ins something they might want to exit or might have to exit. there is a chance they would

keep the snow assets and have north of a 30% market share possibly 40% market share in china which would be pretty remarkable, but there will be over di vestitures. >> it could be a very long process. are there beneficiaries as these two companies try to navigate this merger? >> i think that's a great question. we certainly thing constellation brands stz will be a beneficiary. and if miller coors and a.b. are distracted in discussions and potentially mergers, i think it's a great opportunity for them, constellation, to keep growing their corona, modell la he is personal brands. >> is there any reason to own anheuser-busch, inbev. this is really a bazillian company in many ways.

>> we have an underperform rating and we recognize there would be some upside to the stock if they made an announcement like this because they're seen as the ultimate cost cutters. they could strip out a lot of costs from sab if they did succeed in this transaction, but that being said, you're right, they're big in brazil. the u.s. has been very tricky. i think part of the reason they need to make this move now is their inherent growth rates are under a lot of pressure. >> carolyn, thank you for joining us. the oil markets are about to close for the day and they look to close much higher. we are headed live back to the nymex when "power lunch" returns. the dow having a pretty decent day ahead of the fed. we are up and we're back right after this. hey! hi! our cloud - it's a platform based on awesome-ization! really? can it keep our data where it needs to be no matter what country we're in? integrate with our systems to help keep transactions secure? combine customer data with likes, tweets, the weather,

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hi, every. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update. president obama is inviting a 14-year-old muslim student to the white house. after the texas teen was detained by police for taking a homemade clock to school. the teachers thought it looked like a bomb. he was suspended from school for three days. police say they will not press any charges. fire crews gaining ground against a devastating northern

california fire that has destroyed hundreds of homes. they say the blaze in lake county about 100 miles north of san francisco is 40% contained. it has burned more than 100 square miles. amazon announcing its prime now one-hour delivery service is expanding to los angeles and orange county. with the addition of los angeles, prime now operates in 13 cities worldwide. and olive garden is offering another helping of unlimited pasta. pasta pass allows people to eat as much pasta as they want for seven weeks. this time it's a family affair. for $300. the promotion will allow four people to join in on the feast. the passes go on sale tomorrow afternoon on the company's website. that's a lot of pasta. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you, brian. >> that's a cornucopia of tortellini. >> i assume the endless salad bowl goes with it.

>> does a gym membership go it. >> it should. or an appointment with a cardiologist. one of two. a big gain for oil today and moving higher into the close, jackie deangelis -- it's a big day for oil bulls. >> it is a big day. we saw more strength, more buying as we headed into the close. we're going to settle over $47 a barrel. it's a $2.50 move on the day. more than 5%. we haven't seen a day like this since august 31st. that was when we moved 8.8% in one day. having said that, a couple reasons for this, and i will highlight the fact that u.s. boots are on the ground in syria, yes. there's no oil there, but, still, those kind of headlines do rile the markets. it's a psychological thing that happens. you talked about that eia report as well, a drawdown in inventories. cushing was down 2 million barrels as well. multiple bullish factor this is that report and the technic at

th this. it was a perfect storm. traders will be watching the fed as well to see what impact it has on the dollar. dollar is a little bit weaker today supportive of crude. >> thank you very much. it is now time for "street talk." five stock calls we think you should know about. stock number one, oracle. suntrust upgrading it to a buy. included computing remains an opportunity. the shift to cloud may be, pardon this, clouding some investor understanding of the company. trading 13.5 times next year's earnings making it cheaper than most of its peers. >> and kudos to the analysts for making this call ahead of earnings this evening. of course, we will be covering the earnings on "fast." stock number two, general electric. big move being added to credit suisse u.s. focus list.

with the deal set to close they also like more potential m&a. >> what's amazing, two things. the average target of the 17 analyst that cover the stock is 30 a share. but i guess what's more intriguing to me is that ge only has 17 analysts following it. analyst has 48 analysts. oh, how the mighty analyst coverage has fallen. >> exactly. >> third stock of the day, hershey. jpmorgan upgrading to an overweight from neutral. they say the risk/reward is attractive again. china is a much smaller part of the business. sales are strong in the u.s. gross margins look set to improve. the analyst see about a 14% total return by the end of the year. >> on the cost side, they're being helped by falling milk prices and cocoa prices are coming off a recent high. that should help with the margins that the analyst was talking about. next stock here cst brands. this is an operator of gas station convenience stores. we talked about stores like this

before. raymond james upgrading to an outperform with a $42 target. the analyst says cst is opening a lot of new stores with expanded food service. >> didn't you do casey's last week? >> yeah. it's the same thing. >> do you have a mini mart obsession? >> i thinks the under the radar low gas price play. >> there you go. it's one of the biggest companies in our san antonio power city index. they own the nice and easy and the corner store brands. the final stock is actually the under the radar name of the day and that's web md. it's not under the radar to consumers. every minor injury is automatically going to be something fatal but growth in the digital health business is the focus of the call. starting with an jutt eoutperfo. they do $100 million. the price target implies about 30% upside on wbmd.

>> this is an outperformer year-to-date. 4.6% versus the s&p 500. i go to those things -- i'm a total hypochondriac. >> and you're feeling your pulse because it's like i'm dying. no, you have a splinter. >> apple watch. that wraps up street talk. time now for trading nation. let's talk about fitbit. the stock jumping more than 10% of on news of a deal with target and the potential for more corporate sales ahead. brad ericsson and rich ross. brad, break down this rally. do you think it's real? should a deal with target give it this kind of legs under the stock today? >> yeah, absolutely. obviously the 335,000 target employees that this brings on board for fitbit is very nice in the near term but what we really like about it longer term is it signifies this secular shift

towards connectivity really enabling companies to engage with their employees to drive healthier life stiles and get people more productive at work as well as just allowing companies to basically show that they really care about their employees. fitbit is an early leader in that market and we do like the fact that they're bringing their brand exposure from the consumer market over to that corporate channel and we think there's potential upside opportunity. >> the stock is down 15% over one month. to what do you ascribe the weakness? >> obviously the company reported its first quarter as a public company, rapidly rising opportunity around wearables has a caused the company to throw a bit more spending sooner than expected. as well as the fact that, you know, as this data has emerged with apple entering the market at frankly a different price point and an adjacent category almost to fitness monitors, that's driven overdone concerns

in the game. >> thank you. rich ross, how does the chart on fitbit look? healthy? >> let's keep in mind the company has only been trading now for that one quarter as the analyst alluded to. first 100 days have been pretty good for the stock but they don't tell the story going forward. i will give you a way to trade it and to invest in it. you can see here over those 100 days, stocks priced at $20 on thei po. we get that big opening stock, stock opens around 30. has that big run up to 50. now we come up. we test that key support. $30, that's your big support. that's where the stock opens for trading. publicly we put in a nice double bottom amidst the recent volatility in the broader market. importantly, we take out that down trend from the high, brian, on the news of that deal. i think the stock has upside to that key resistance at about $40. it's not only the neckline of that little head and shoulders that came to life there, but also that's the average price.

stocks in around $36. i think there's upside to $40 for a trade. if you like it longer term, brian, you're not buying it for the chart, for 90 days of trading. you're buying it because you like the stock, you like the story. go right ahead. if you're a trader, below $30 you have to use a stop here. facebook, the stock got cut in half in the first 90 days. turns out to be pretty good. twitter goes the other way. up 50% its first 100 days. hasn't been so good from there. mixed results coming out of the first 100 base. i think fitbit has a chance. below 30, not so much. >> rich ross, thank you very much. brad, appreciate it. more "trading nation" every day at tradingnation.cnbc.com. cue the music. if you don't recognize the song, it's "hips don't lie" by shakira. why are we playing this song? two reasons. clearly this is a funky show, but two, and more importantly, this was the number one song in all of america the last time the fed raised rates in june 2006.

what stocks in the s&p 500 have done the best since then? we're going to let you know and more importantly, what was your wealth adviser or fund manager doing back then? maybe they were still in college. can they manage your money now? and we want your opinion. should the fed raise rates tomorrow or keep waiting. not will, should. go to cnbc.com/vote. we're going to keep watching to see the results because hips don't lie like polls. stick around.

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lease the 2015 rc 350 for $429 a month for 36 months. see your lexus dealer. a lot of things have happened since the fed last raised rates on june 29th of 2006. the dow was about 30% -- higher

now than it was then. the companies that were in the s&p 500 then and still are, because there are some better names that added late like priceline, these are the biggest movers since the last fed rate hike. number one, apple. 1266% gain followed close lie by amazon and then a long gap to the third best performer. con still lation brands up 387%. what was your fund manager doing back in 2006? there's a good chance he or she was actually still in college. eric chemi is looking at the baby-faced fund manage whose have never run money in a rising interest rate environment. >> they have never seen seen a rate hike. if you look at the dataen owe the board, this is just since 2000. the real data from e vestment goes boack to the '60s and '70s.

in the last nine years there are so many people in the industry who have never been in an environment where the fed hiked rates. they don't know how to deal with this because they don't have the experience. a lot of traders were expected more volatility. they were wondering if this will create a toxic cocktail of people who don't know what they're doing. >> the banking system are bigger, financial advisers, maybe 20%, 30% of them were not financial advisers the last time the federal reserve raised rates. these are -- we always talk about the consequences to bonds and stocks. the human element is a big story here. kroo does experience matter. >> i would hope. >> a lot of old guys say it does mat irand the young guys don't know what they're doing and will they be allowed to take the risk? some other people thought that maybe this environment is so different than before because the intapg hcentral bank has ra assets so much maybe it won't matter. >> experience should always matter.

thank you. we're going to start a cnbc vote, head to cnbc.com/vote to weigh in on this question. do you think the fed should, not will, but should raise rates tomorrow. voting starts now. in the meantime, let's bring in sam rimes, portfolio manager at chilton capital. sam, you put out a note saying if janet yellen sticks to this dovish path at the fed she is falling into the greenspan trap. what do you mean by that? >> so thank you for having me. the greenspan trap is the -- if you think about it, you think about what greenspan was looking at. he was looking at low inflation, lower wages, and he cut interest rates significantly to attempt to push both of those higher, and what you ended up building was a housing bubble. now you see china doing pretty much the same thing with its devaluation and its growth slowing down. it's transmitting deflation globlly. the question is whether the fed

will fall into the greenspan trap of paying too much attention into what's going on internationally and not enough of what is going on domestically. >> maybe when the fed got too aggressive in the mid to late '30s and exacerbated and extended the depression, that's probably the fear. is the risk bigger on the keeping rates low or no for longer or raising them too soon? >> well, you have to -- i would argue that the trajectory really matters. 25 basis point hike tomorrow with a $4.5 trillion balance sheet probably doesn't have the type of effect that they did in the 1930s. the 1930s they got well ahead of themselves. the key for the fed is just not getting ahead of itself this time. you know, it's taking a slow and steady path. i think in a lot of ways if you kind of delay too long, you'll have to get off the slow and steady path higher and that's

where you will really have a 1930s type of issue. >> so we have this poll running live and everybody out there listening -- well, if you're driving, don't do it, if you're at home go to cnbc.com/vote. it's a live poll, should the fed raise rates tomorrow. right now, sam, 66% of our respondents say, yes, they should raise rates. what do you think of that? >> i think they should as well. i think your viewers are doing a good thing. when you think about it, the domestic economy is doing pretty well. you have cpi, the trim mean. cpi came in pretty well today. trim mean pce is hovering around 2%. they don't have much of an execution on inflation unless they decide to have an excuse on inflation. you have employment pretty close to full. the only real excuse they can go to is international threats, volatility out of ems and so on. so the key is are they going to pivot from being domestically oriented to concentrating more

on the global risks and i think the global risks really raises a question for when and if they'll ever be able to raise rates. by pivoting it gets a little sticky. >> i was just saying that. we have to go, sam. thank you very much. we talk about will the fed not do anything because of uncertainty. the fed may be the greatest uncertainty. they could remove a lot of uncertainty by being certain of something. time to lock in the viewer vote. we asked do you think the fed should raise rates tomorrow? it's live voting right now. as of now, 65% of you say yes, indeed, the fed should raise rates. so, melissa, it's interesting. the people are about exactly inverse of what wall street thinks will happen. >> well, i mean, the question is should and what wall street thinks is what will happen. so there's a difference in the question as well. >> maybe we should flip the question to will. >> right, exactly. and you may get what wall street is expecting as well. all right.

i cannot believe this but at this time tomorrow we'll know what the fed did or did not do. how should you invest your money? we have vice from a five-star bond fund manager coming up when "power lunch" returns. driver-a. it recognizes pedestrians and alerts you. warns you about incoming cross-traffic. cameras and radar detect dangers you don't. and it can even stop by itself. question to will. bond fund manager coming up when a crash. the 2016 e-class. see your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm kate rogers with some news out of the ride-sharing world. two of uber's biggest rivals, lyft and chinese startup didiquati have teamed up to allow users of each app to hail apps from the other respective app when they are in other countries. according to dow jones a chinese visitor to the u.s. can open up the d i am di app and pay for their app on lyft after which didi will remit that to lyft. d. di has a press event kicking off. we done know what the news will be. but once again dow jones is citing one source saying that two of uber's biggest rivals have teamed up and also that lyft is in talks to potentially expand this alliance to india's ola and singapore's grab taxi. the ride sharing wars definitely heating up p back over to you guys. >> thank you, kate rogers. as we continue to count down to the fed decision tomorrow how should you invest your money before and after the decision in eric stein's the portfolio

manager of the short duration strategic income fund. he joins us now. eric, great to have you with us. let's say the fed hikes rates. what do you do with your bond portfolio? how do you change it? >> well, look, i think in our eaton vance strategic income fund try to have a long-term approach. but i think if the fed does hike you want to be short the front end of the fed treasury curve, other assets that would do well in a rising rate environment is the place to be. >> what do you think happens to the yield curve then? do you think we see a flattening? >> i think if the fed is raising rates into a decent growth but slow inflation environment the yield curve should flatten. past couple weeks we've had actually some steepening of the yield curve, lots going on in the treasury market with china and other foreign officials money selling treasurietreasuri. >> let's say they don't hike. >> if they don't hike, maybe you want to extend duration a little

bit but i think u.s. treasuries don't really offer that much value. so high-yield bonds, we get a decent amount of carry, there's some duration you get some carry but also places like india. but also if they don't hike it's very important to focus on the guidance-r they going to hike in the october meeting or december meeting? >> lastly what did you think is going to happen? >> i think it's going to be very close. either a dovish hike or a hawkish pause. if you put a gun to my head i'd say a dovish hike. i think there's impetus to get off the lower end. >> eric stein. >> coming up on "power lunch," john harwood sitting down with carly fiorina. asks her some tough questions. >> do you believe that humans contribute to climate change and that government ought to do something about it?

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former hp ceo carly fiorina will face off against donald trump and several other candidates in tonight's debate. but before that she sat down at a diner for a speakeasy with our own john harwood. >> do you believe that humans contribute to climate change and that government ought to do something about it? >> i believe if you're going to go to science you need to read the fine print. a single nation acting alone can make no difference at all. the only answer to this problem, according to the scientists, is a three-decade global effort coordinated and costing trillions of dollars. it's impossible. are you kidding? a three-decade effort costing

trillions of dollars coordinated with current technology? it will never happen. the only answer -- >> is the answer to do nothing? >> no. the answer is innovation. >> well, for more of john's speakeasy with carly fiorina or the dozens of other politicians he has sat down with, you can visit cnbc.com/speakeasy. all right. let's get a check of stocks ahead of the fed. with just over an hour to go in trading before tomorrow, the big fed day -- did you know there was a fed meeting tomorrow? the dow jones industrial average up 108 points. the s&p up .7 of 1%. the nasdaq and russell 2000 are also higher. melissa. >> this is a nice follow-through from yesterday, brian. and also take a look at some of these sectors. xlu, the utilities, as well as eem, the emerging markets. the bid higher in both of these sectors sort of is saying that the market believes that there's going to be no hike because if there was a belief that there would be a hike people would want to take off the bond proxies as well as the riskier assets there. these are interesting trades. these are the trades to watch going into tomorrow's meeting. >> but i loved your point, though. won't it be nice by tomorrow

night on "fast money," 3578 eastern, 2:00 pacific, that we'll know, that all sothis speculation, the great unsirnt will be over. >> i guess. unless they open the door tore mountain certainty. do i this they're going to go away from data dependency tomorrow? i doubt it. >> i had a nightmare last night. i ate a giant sandwich. but i had another nightmare also that the federal reserve doesn't raise rates but it doesn't indicate that it won't raise rates, that we still get stuck in this stasis where they basically say the unraised raise where it's like we're probably going to do something soon kind of a thing. would that be a de facto raise? >> that would be a sell-off in the markets. >> because that would be a de facto raise, then. >> i don't know. i think uncertainty is terrible for the markets. anyway, tonight what is certain, brian, tonight on "fast money" we've got the ceo of accord affair therapeutics. embroiled in ongoing patent litigation with kyle bass the hedge fund manager.

but tonight the ceo's going to speak out at 5:00. >> kyle spoke with david faber yesterday. a little back and forth. we'll look forward to that show. the fed final decision "fast money." as a reminder, that decision will break at the top of this fine hour. 2:00 eastern time. 11:00 pacific. it's going to be a big day. we'll see you then. "closing bell" starts right now. hi, everybody. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. we're at the stock exchange. but oil has been the story today. crude spiking. in fact, it's up 5 1/2% right now on the back of a couple of things. bullish inventory report and news about u.s. special forces in syria. that move driving energy stocks higher as well today. look at that. in fact, look at conoco phillips up 4 1/4%. >> conoco too has a lot