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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 18, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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take a while -- >> five more years. coy be so lucky. mike and evan, thank you so much. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins in moments. melissa lee, what is off the top. >> we're talking about gold. goldminers, your ticket to play. >> over to you guys. >> thanks, kelly, have a great welcome. "fast money" starts right now. live from nasdaq overlooking time square. our traders are tim, steve, brian and guy. tonight on "fast," the street is buzzing about a new article that said apple is closer to building a car than anyone thought. the reporter behind the story is here and he'll reveal what will have it coming sooner than you think. and alibaba, one year later. the shares are below the ipo price and it could get much worse on monday. we'll tell you why. but first to the story of the day. stocks tanking. closing lower by nearly 3 hub points. it is now back into correction trt.
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and the s&p and dow getting hit hard. 1970 was steve's level. i said, listen, now we should trade up to 2035. didn't make it there yesterday. but it got there close. i think we traded up to 2020. to me, and we talked about this as well, if the fed raises rates. >> the knee jerk would be down and the exact opposite happened yesterday. and this will continue. and i will remain and say we'll test the october 14th left we saw a year ago. >> it was a selloff but we did have relative outperformance by the nonproxies, utility and reits. >> and we did the presentation on how utilities react well if they raise rates an that was counterin tuive. but i wouldn't expect them to react well if we didn't. because i thought it was a risk off, and it would have taken a couple of days to slap back in to have people hunting for yield again. so i was shocked they reacted
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well now. which leads me to believe there is consistent growth in utilities going forth. >> so you like utilities. >> what is not surprising is that emerging markets and everybody thought the fed was easier and it shoud allow things to rally and not a relief but those things are not working. we've been through the oil trade and i think it is bottom. but if you look at what the fed liquidity has done for the classes, absolutely nothing. and the currency was stronger this morning than the dollar and it stages a massive comeback and back to and higher than where it was before the fed. that is interesting. >> and that is your trade, the dollar. walk us through the steps here. >> i think the market realized today that what the fed did was actually tighten rates. it raises rates in a way via the dollar. here is how it works. the fed did nothing. they were dovish. they said dovish stuff in their press release which thens opens the door for the bank of japan
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and china and europe to ease monetary policy which means the u.s. dollar will rise and that slows down the u.s. economy which is like a fed tightening. so that is what actually happened. and so that is why the fed sell off today. and i said i was short dollar, and i was wrong and flipped around on that and bought back. >> and would the dollar have rose more in your opinion if the fed tightened for real? >> i don't know, maybe. >> regardless. a stronger dollar means pressure on commodities and a tail wind for european countries, all of the above. what do you do? >> i still think the oil market goes lower. i think the vix -- we talked about it a couple of days ago, around the $50 level, sees another leg up in oil. and exxon-mobil, i think people plan on valuation will get burnt on the trade. gold, however, is rallying. and we'll talk about that. but that is the outlier of the
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commodities market which might offer something entirely different. there is a lot of cross currents going down here. >> and the ecb was out this afternoon saying we'll not hesitate to act if the shock is not that severe, and responsing to the fed and that god back through the fed. dax, 9400 is a low and that is why you buy because as long as the euro is staying weak and if you listen to brian, right there, i want to own european equities and dax is the best place to be. >> does that make you bullish in europe? >> no. >> why not? >> because european markets are exposed to china, and particularly germany, a big export company. so that head wind will keep me away from it. so buy uup, that is the way to trade a u.s. dollar or sell fxe, that is the euro. i think being short, euro is the trade. for u.s. investors, that is probably the best way to do it.
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and you don't worry about export headwinds. >> speaking of the markets, glasso, walk us through what you are watching. >> it is important to know the levels because it confuses people. up and down the next day. so let's look at the important levels. this is the most recent high. most recent low. so let's fill in the blanks. how do we come up with the balance levels that guy and i like to talk about. if you look at the levels, the first bounce level from high to low, the tracement was 1930. second, 1970. that is why that level that guy and i like to talk about, this is your pivot here. the market moved higher from there. these are bounce levels. so what was the ultimate bounce level? 2035. that is where we were going to stop if the market had a lid on it. we stopped at 2020. that is your new level to watch. that is the new level to the
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upside. i think we're going lower. i think we break this level. but now we have a ceiling on the market at 2020. we stopped exactly where we should, if the algorithms an the electronic traders are following the fib retracements, know where your fib is and your bottom is. >> so what revents us from retesting the october of 2014 level? >> absolutely nothing. and i think we'll test that level and ultimately i think we're going lower than that. and the truth is if you look at 2900 day moving average which is this line right here, we didn't stay lower than that for a heck of a lot of time. we were above that about a week's time. we're still way below. we're in no-man's-land right here. you have to watch going into earning season and watch the dollar headwinds and we're going lower. >> so the october low is 1862. >> i think we have to hit that. i think europe and the u.s. have to go there and i think japan hit the august lows. and futures this morning, s&p
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traded down to 19158 which is the same level steve talked about, 1960, the bounce level. cash sold through it. >> you think so too? >> yeah. >> and before we go to break, the central bankers six months ago would have had the results higher. and you saw it. and i think they'll have a diminished market going forward. >> coming up next, medal surging and you won't believe how high brian kelly thinks it can go. and one year since alibaba went into ipo and now shares are cheaper and it could get worse on monday. and don't look, apple is closer to making a car than anyone thought. the reporter behind the story coming up. much more "fast money" straight ahead. t management, we believe active management can protect capital long term.
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active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive. it's active. that's the power of active management. big day? ah, the usual.
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moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.
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welcome back to "fast money." let's check out what happened today in gold prices. we did see a nice spike higher on the heels of the fed to action yesterday. gold prices closed up by nearly 2%. 113860 the last trade here.
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and the longer term, a down trend in tact here. but yes, higher but still the down trend very much in play. take a look at the goldmining stocks for sure. look at new mining. we saw gains there. the leverage of gold prices earlier in the day and saw the momentum fade. they are not the only one. check out goldminers. new mont, not showing signs of life and look at the goldminers gdx, up by 1.5% and the longer term trend is for the stocks year-to-date on the down trend side. so take a look at that. gold and goldminers an interest. back over to you. >> thank you dom chu. let's talk about the trade move in gold today. and guy, you said finally gold is a safe haven play. >> safe haven. and we're clearly seeing given the action of central banks
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globally. november '09, the imf sold 200 tons of gold to india. and guess what we held. 1044. this move makes sense and it is decoupling from the dollar. i think it could go higher. >> and golden globes is your trade as well. >> and it decoupled from the dollar. the dollar went higher and gold stayed high. and two weeks ago that hedge funds were short for the first time ever. so gold sets up for a massive, massive short squeeze in the short-term it wouldn't surprise me to see it 1300, 1400, in the long run, above 2,000. >> that's a massive squeeze. and one thing i say about gold, it is a violent, violent squeeze in a bear market. and i need to see this break through probably 1160 before i would trace it higher. the down trend very much in tact. guy talked about the india news and china announced their holdi holdings, less than expected.
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and that may be the bottom in gold. not until 1160. >> if everybody feels it is higher. go back to edx. it is down 23% year-to-date. gold is down 4% year-to-date. but gdx will outperform gold. so the upside, gdx. >> and netflix closing down 1.5%. reports out that bbc is creating a netflix style streaming service that would offer programming from the past and present. and verizon is preparing to add a free streaming service. and tonight jim cramer sits down with reed hastings for a very rare interview. what he had to say when jim asked about competition and consolidation in the space. take a listen. >> more media consolidation coming because you are so disruptive and market cap, i believe, worth all of what at one point. >> the taxi cabs haven't been
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able to hold back uber and nobody can hold back walmart, but the sector offers such power. >> and why is it important to talk about the competition. are you a competitive guy. >> we talk on the earnings call like the board of directors. we give our exact internal forecast out. we're not trying to massage it or play with it. we talk about competitors the way we talk about them inside. i don't see why it is a difficult topic. and we have great competitors. hbo, we've grown over 40 million in the u.s. and hbo has continued to grow. >> guy? >> david faber has been with the goldman media an fence and he mentioned it today. everything comes back to netflix. it is the trade. tim is right. this went from $118 but guess where it held the other day, $95. that is the pivot level. it is netflix world and everybody else is playing in it. i get the fact that valuation is expensive but growth is
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tremendous. >> i think most people would agree with everything you said but in a world where we test the october lows which is what efb here on the desk has said. you still go with netflix? >> absolutely not. and we can see where it go. probably to $83. and this is a company that if no one else is playing in the world, and you are saying there is way to get online and watch the content, which is not true, so i think this company is expensive and not a competition. >> 1.5 is where it closed. use par $100 so you don't worry about the $85 level that tim discussed. but i believe they should move higher with a market moving higher. >> jell-o, band aid and q tips and what do they have in common. >> bam. >> they are ubiquitous. >> at some point competition matters to this company. to every company. i don't care what you are. so you talk about the taxi cabs surviving with uber, well maybe
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netflix is the taxi cab and perhaps pushed to the side a bit. so b.k. sells them with both hands. >> you say the guy is a stud and the guy is a guy. >> i say netflix is jell-o. how about that. >> oh, well. >> too bad this is only half an hour show. >> don't miss the rest of the exclusive interview with reed hastings tonight on "mad money." next up, sticking with tech, alibaba one year anniversary since going tunnel the stock now below the ipo price of $68. down more than 30% in the past year. we should know another share lock is coming up this monday, meaning more shares could be sold to the public. up to 64% of current shares outstanding that could be -- who knows. >> but exact for the fact that all are soft bank and people on the inside. if you tell me all of these people are going to sell out, you should get out. but that share lockup is only
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broader exposed to the public. and i think 20 times 2016 this is a secular growth story and they have 11% of china retail sales and we know china is selling out. and it is the best price for china. >> so i like the secular story on this. but the problem is i locked in at 80 and i thought it would hold and i thought 70 would hold and it keep going lower. so i like it. i think the idea is great going forward, you want to be exposed to the chinese consumer for the next five to ten years but i don't know if this is the environment to buy it. >> it is not trading well. >> and herb did some thoughtful work. he said it could get cut in half from here. it was already cut in half in a year. my netflix, i am to netflix what tim is to baba. >> but baba is up and netflix is at the highs. >> whatever that means. >> all right. very good. you're watching cnbc first in
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business worldwide. here is what else is coming up on fast. did you see that? an explosive article has the tech world in a tissy over whether apple is developing a car. we'll talk to a reporter who broke the story and get the scoop. and later, an industrial strength problem. it is the one down stock traders see going much lower. the name, when we return. when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business.
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leaving you free to focus on what matters most.
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could a self-driving car be apples a next big thing. speculation is that a car could be in the works. and today the guardian reports that they are in talked with the california dmv about testing a self-driving car on the road. mark harris broke the story burning up the web. he joins us now from seattle. great to have you with us. >> wonderful to be with you, melissa. >> what is the most ambitious thing apple is planning and what is the base minimum? >> the most ambitious thing is they could have a car on the road within weeks. they could be driving a car in public, an autonomous public on california's road within weeks. the least ambitious, the minimum they are doing is trying to really talk with the authorities, talk with the department of motor vehicles in
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california to have an influence on what regulations of these type of vehicles are going to be. >> at the same time, in terms of having a car -- a self-driving car on the road in a matter of weeks, they would have to file a much more detailed filing and outline the exact names of the drivers an the vehicle identification numbers. is that really -- is that a feasible time frame? >> it certainly could be. the truth is we don't know how far along apple are. they could be testing it in private on the private track for weeks, for months even. but the reason they're talking with the -- the fact they are talking to the dmv now and interacting with the authorities show they are close to having something that they want to interact with the public about. so that eerm means a vehicle on the road or having some input into the rules and regulations about how apple cars will actually get out there. >> let's stay apple is being extremely ambitious and they are going to have the self-driving car out road at some point. you cover the company, is it your guess that the company will want to manufacturer a car or
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some simply proof of concept for the software they are working on for car manufacturers? >> my gut instinct tells me it doesn't want to be a google, the android of self-driving cars. that is not what we've seen in the past. apple likes to control the entire chain, from building every last panel with titanum to the software and user experience. so my gut instinct is we're looking into apple moving into transportation as a service, just like robot taxis, like a robot uber and perhaps in the future, moving into high end luxury vehicles. >> fascinating stuff. mark, great to have you with us. thanks for your time. >> thanks. >> mark harris of the guardian. what do we do with apple? >> we get scared. one of the lowest marginal industrial trades. >> would you share apple shares if they said we're going to build a car and sell cars. >> it is not coming on the road
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in weeks. what can they do to make money. they need to attack an industry of this magnitude to move the needle. they will do something. they will not build the car soup to nuts, and it won't be on the road in weeks. >> let's say they make the cars for the apple experience, that is a high margin business. >> i like them in the car but not making the car. i agree it is distracting. concentrate on the home and the house and inside of the car. >> and at the same time, it is all iphone. that is the bottom line. you need to sell iphone. >> that is the company at this point in time. and the question is, is that your next product. we heard how the tv was going to be the big thing but it is not panning out. it is still an iphone company. and i say this half tongue and cheek and half serious, are they using apple maps, because if you think you are going down a highway and you end newspaper a lake. >> we have a news alert. carl icahn has the details with
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mary. >> he now owns 100 million shares of freeport raising the stake to 8.8%. back on august 27th he disclosed that 8.5% stake in the minor, after it said it is cutting the mining budget by 25% and laying off 10% of the u.s. work force. stock barely budging on the news but upping his stake to 8.8% or 100 million shares. >> thank you. and the filing was made and today the action was horrendous. down 10%. >> it was down 11%. it is a gambling term. but chasing -- basically chasing bad money with good money. i think that is what this is. they can clean up balance sheets and do whatever they want at freeport mcmoran, unless you have an end user, you don't have anything. and they don't have it. copper making new lows almost every day and the energy market
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doesn't get out of its way and both of those are freeport. >> and i don't agree. when i look at copper, i think at the major commodities and it is the most risk of supply disruption. you have a place whereby 2016 tells me we're in supply. the issue is the core licenses and this is the big risk, it is the e.m. risk. it is going on -- we know what is going on with oil and copper. >> time now for the final trade, alibaba, a lockup on monday. this is a small relief for it. it is not the answer, but it is in the stock. >> i'm watching utilities as i started off the show and i'm watching to see if they continue to perform in the after fed or lack of fed environment. >> b.k.? >> so for me it is the financials again. they traded terribly for two days in a row. we saw jeffrey's earnings awful on energy and that is a indicator and you sell financials. >> guy. >> must watch o.a. tonight.
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i'm watching. >> what else are you watching? >> you know what i'm watching, bristol-myers. we'll talk about that later. but bristol meyer up big today. we talked about it. something is going on, i'm telling you. >> that does it for us. thank you for watching. catch "fast money" on monday at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. meanwhile, don't go my where. "options action" starts right after this break. (vo) what does the world run on?
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move. should you? strategic plays for your portfolio to put the odds in
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hey, at least the market closed and stocks can't go any lower. we're live from the nasdaq market side on exploration friday. the guys are getting ready behind me and while they're doing that, here is what is coming up. >> there is no place like home. there is no place like home. >> that is because that is where some traders are placing big bets. and one name could be setting up for a sweet trade. we'll explain. and four banks are on the verge of forming a death cross. you know it is true, luke. and it could spell trouble for stocks. we'll give you the name. and missed the r

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