tv Options Action CNBC September 18, 2015 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
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hey, at least the market closed and stocks can't go any lower. we're live from the nasdaq market side on exploration friday. the guys are getting ready behind me and while they're doing that, here is what is coming up. >> there is no place like home. there is no place like home. >> that is because that is where some traders are placing big bets. and one name could be setting up for a sweet trade. we'll explain. and four banks are on the verge of forming a death cross. you know it is true, luke. and it could spell trouble for stocks. we'll give you the name. and missed the rally in under
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arm our. we have a way to get long shares for less. we'll break it down. the action starts right now. >> if global growth is slow, which sector will feel the most pain. let's get in the money and find out now. dan, what do you think? >> i think it is industrials for u.s. multi-nationals. and we'll talk about boeing, but they made a high back in january and it has been going since. it was up 22% and now up 5% and up from the lows last august. so industrials to me is the sectors you want to focus on. the fed said it out loud yesterday, they're worried about global growth. it is causing them to think twice about how they're going to effect policy here. to me that is the sector you want to stick with and sell rallies in industrial. >> it is interesting, because in the past week there was increasing optimism about industrials. ge has the credit deal and then credit swiss and we haven't seen that in a long time.
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>> i would put boeing in a different camp because the anticipation from airlines is coming from china where there are problem. 5,000 orders for aircraft and with the nippon airways cargo cancelation, boeing has no net new orders for 2015. so they are basically telling us what is going on. we don't need to wait and find out and look at the names to see if there is any growth. there isn't. >> the boeing setup is great and you'll look at the chart. and in terms of individual securities here, more is driven by a sector issue than it is -- it is not just industrials. it is materials, energy, an anything that is cyclical. you make a decision post fed whether you want to favor growth or value, or go cyclical or defensive. and industrials energy and materials, i put them all in the same bucket. these are places to be away from, and so sell it if you have it and shore it if you don't. >> and the fed was dovish. would your views on industrials
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be different? >> no it wouldn't. and the reason is i think the cues -- the fed is acting on the same cues we are. they are looking at the same information, digesting it the same way we are digesting it. and if i was looking at the growth space like boeing, you're looking for new orders. if not, demand is telling you what you need to know. >> and the point is two things. they are interrelated. the strength of the dollar and the weakness in emerging markets. they are related but two separate things for all intents and purposes. like mike said, with boeing, 60% sales come from overseas and 20% from china and the growth is why you buy stocks like this into a cyclical upturn. so in some ways the highs in boeing in january could have been the top of the cycle in my opinion. >> so you are looking at -- you are throwing out the tod once again. >> the triangle of death here. look at this chart in boeing. you had the high that we talked about earlier in the year and it is making a series of lower
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highs. it bounced off of 140 which was big support and in late august it was broke. it came back. where did it retest and fail yesterday. $140. i think this is a good opportunity for a retest of the prior lows from last month. and i want to make one other point. we have one chart of implied volatility options prices in boeing. on a short basis. up 100% into the august swoon. they've come down and they are relatively cheap. and i'm looking to identify the next catalyst which is the q3 earning. i expect a possible miss and downgrade to guidance. i want to target october 23rd or 22nd, so i'm looking out to the weekly exploration and today when the stock was $137 i could buy the october 30th blg weekly 120, 130 puts at 380 and i'm telling one of the october 30th
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120 puts at $0.80. my max risk is at $3, between 132 and 135 and i lose it above that but i can make it up between 120 and 132. >> with the stock down from $155, it is trading at 15 times less and to your point you might get some guidance. but it is tough with the stock trading at a cheaper valuation and one of the better growers and the best way to do is sell put. >> what maybes an opportunity -- makes an opportunity is a setup. so you have well defined lows at 140 and a short break, 140-115. and this is a reaction move. meaning people react to the weakness by buying. people thought it was cheap and covering shorts. once a stock throws back to the point to which it initially broke down, which you can see the lines dan drew, it is at the kill zone and you whack it again. it is a perfect entry point for
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a short. >> so you approve -- you pick dan's triangle of death. >> and you can use that if you want. >> you call it whatever you want. because i don't call them anything. because i think that frankly is trying to get attention. but he could do that. it is not about you or the triangle. here is what it is. it is an excellent setup. you have an excellent trade no matter what you want to call it. >> well listen, and i'll make another -- we call a lot of chart formations names and we'll talk about a death crisis and they don't mean anything. what is going on, is the stocks are in big down trends. and you guys got accustomed to buying in dips. i think we're in a market where you sell the rallies. >> moving on. home builders were amongst the hardest hit this week but one could be a sweet way to make some money. so carter, what are you looking at? >> it is home builders and i'm going to look at home depot. this is one of the largest stocks in the market. and as the technical expression
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goes, it acts well. it has been up eight out of the last ten months compared to the market. here are a few charts. what i have here first is showing you the outperformance of home depot relative to the sector it is, consumer discretion and if terms of market. so you have equities at the green line and sub set of the green line and home depot outperforming its own sector in the market. now if you look at it, however, compared to other areas of the market. home depot is underperforming certain parts of home building and home construction materials and other parts of the market. we think that is an opportunity. take a look at a few charts here. now this is the inverse relation schenn between 10 year treasury yields and home depot and the torque starts when there was more and more easing. take a look here. this is exactly where q3 started
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and exactly when home depot starts to explode. and what did we learn this week? the fed is stuck. whether they are trapping or afraid, they didn't do anything. and so stick with the winner like this. here is the chart. i think you can draw the trend line like that. and i think you can presume that this sideways action is the setup for another bounce off the line. home depot, higher. buy it. >> mike, what is your take? >> this is a situation -- i'm having a hard time picking stocks to get long here, i have to say. and so my inclination, even though options price have fallen off, slightly off the volatility we saw earlier, my inclination is to make a bullish trip at a level lower than where it is trading right now. so for me that has to be in the neighborhood of a 10% discount. an the nice thing is the way options prices are setting up now, kind of like dan was looking at last week in apple.
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this is a situation where you can sell the overpriced options to the down side and then obviously mitigate that downside risk and i'm looking at the november 105, 120 call trend. it only has to get up $5 for you to participate on the upside. but you get a 10% cushion on the down side. the total trade will cost you $0.90 which is less than 1% of the current stock price. and i'm going out to november and giving time for the trade to play out but i don't want to carry it into december because if another shoe is going to drop and we get flips around as far as the fed is concerned, that is when we'll see it. >> do you like this stock? i feel like you wouldn't. >> carter and mike are all over the itb and the ihb for a while and the strength is amazing and they have focused on one of the parts of the economy that is doing well. this doesn't have that exposure and that is spoking the rest of the planet here. and the way the stock dropped in late august. 20% in a day, i don't know how
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much time it spent below $105, that is scary business. so the fact he's selling $105 output in november, it will catch the next earnings event and the only risk is if the market crashes. to be honest with you. so in some days, home depot will be the last battle fought in my belief but you are gedding paid for the risk of buying the upside. if you want to put money to work in the u.s. and stay domestic focused, home depot is the name and i like the trade structure. >> and to scrap ol ate, do you still like the internet. >> it is the best performing area of the market this year. and things that are related to it, construction, materials, building products and if the rate environment is going to stay benign, they don't care about putin or china. >> and this takes you back to the level where we began a year ago. so if you missed that rally,
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this is where the worst thing that happens is as if you bought it in january. >> sent us a tweet to "options action" and if it doesn't say yo and momma, we've got the hottest options news. videos through the week and exclusive trades. so check out it out. here is what is coming up next. >> that pretty much sums up the banks and it is about to get much worse. we'll tell you why. and how would you like to get paid to buy shares of under armo armour? we have a way. and we'll explain how, when "options action" returns. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series.
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here at td ameritrade, they work wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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welcome back to "options action." a lot of traders focusing on the financialed an there is a good reason why. during the mark may laze, we've seen sentiment and down trends for the chart watchers or technicia technicians, watching patterns in the financials. first of all, check out morgan stanley shares. if you look at the stock, on this side of the screen, you can see the shorter term average price of the stock dropping below the longer term average price. something traders call a death cross. could it be a signal that momentum is shifting. morgan stanley is hitting that. and check out the other names close to the down side. goldman sachs, you can see here, toz trend lines are starting to converge and perhaps we'll see a negative sign there. and then on the other side of the banking spectrum, wells fargo, does a lot of lending,
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those shares as well, seeing the down side perhaps momentum indicators show up here as welcome. so if you check out morgan stanley, already in a death cross and goldman sachs and wells fargo close to there. footballs very much a -- financials very much a focus. back to you, melissa. >> thank you dom chu. >> a few weeks ago, here is what carter said about the banks. >> if we were to go back to this trend line, this implied another 12% to 15%. >> i think you love to the november 2024 put spread. >> and since the time of the trade hads that gotten worse for the financials. and so what do you make with the death crosses? >> do you want to start with that first? >> whatever you want. >> if you think about that, that is fancy language too and nothing to say about what dom said. but in order for -- to reach the point where shorter tomorrow average has crossed a long-term average, by definition you have made no upward progress in four or five months. so the moment at which one crosses the other, you are
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already four or five months into the circumstance. so it is not in and of itself a big deal. but what is the massive zreergs in financial -- deterioration in financial and then post fed. this is a very bad place to be and there is every indication it will get worse. >> look, there is no circumstance basically where you start to see asset prices falling and that is good for financials, particularly like morgan stanley which has moved to asset management. and the other is this is a crowded trade. for institutions coming into this time of the year, they were long financials and airlines. do you want to be long in those if you see volatilities, not a chance. >> especially when you don't see a rise in rates. >> that is the gist of the argument. the whole keystone is falling out of it. >> banks aren't the only winner here. here is what dan said last week about utilities. >> ty a good shot to take a shot
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for a retest or retrace of the 50% move over the last month. so today when the xlu was 41.40, i looked out to october expiration. you can buy the october 42, 44 cost spread. >> that was a popular trade this week. dan are you sticking with it? >> i am sticking with it. and i saw very few reasons why stocks in the u.s. would rally no matter what the fed did. but i thought xlu should show relative strength. it is working versus the market and oversold and i see reasons from here on out based on what the fed said why you want to stick with a high yield sector like the utilities sector. >> what do you see on the trek for xlu. >> this is the reciprocal of the banks and very much related to rates. let's just say this -- in the event this will unravel to the point we go below the august 24th lows and the libor lows in august of 20 but which
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will hold up better. i would argue, things that are defensive having to do with rates like utilities an reits and things like netflix and amazon and starbucks that are their own things that are going to likely come down at a less severe rate. >> do you think we're going to test the ebola levels. >> i think that low is the 15th of october, 2014. it is 1820 and change and i think that is almost a foregone conclusion. >> a foregone conclusion. all right. coming up next, one of the nba biggest stars just signed a megadeal with under armour and whose stocks have soared this year. we'll tell you how to get into the game for less. other than ma me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information
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here at td ameritrade, they work wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. it is all about just being a part of the brand and being a partnership and taking it to new heights. the first years i've been with them we've done a lot so we're just getting started and i'm
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excited to be long-term. >> that was nba all-star stef youry this week on "fast money" talking about his monster deal with under armour that extends through 2024. the stock is up 50% so dan is over at the smart board with a way to play it for less. >> i got this question a lot for the week. this is one of the first stocks in the market that made back the losses from last august, but also made a new all-time high. so what did steph curry just say? he gave a long-term deal. but he gave excitement that investors were looking at. and when you have a breakout and blowout in earnings a couple of months ago, above $90. that is the line here. it broke out and made a new high. listen people, i don't chase runaway breakouts. and i know carter was talking about the other growth stocks like amazon and netflix and that sort of thing and they may be safe haven but toss not my bag.
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and let's focus on how you can use some option to get into under armor. $90 is the break out level, maybe you want to put a limit order on the down side if we see downward volatility. this is in under armour the price of options. it shot up when the stock got hit in august. they've come in but still elevated. that is giving traders who are willing to be patient an opportunity to put a limited order in. so if i want to focus on the $90 level, i look out to october 30th weekly exploration and that is the next earnings announcement and i want to look down to the october 30th weekly 92.5 puts. today when the stock was $103.50 you could have sold those for $2. your worst case scenario, if the stock is below 92.5 in october, but you put it at 90.5. that is a long ways away, people. and i want to make one other
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point. so if you are nervous about the market, that is what options prices are telling you right now. those options only have a 25% chance of being in the money. but the elevated premium is actually compensating you a little bit for taking that risk. so here is the thing. why are we choosing october 30th expiration, we'rearti a catalyst. why am i choosing the 92.5 strike, i'm going to get the stock back close to the long-term support and then why am i selling puts, because the price of options are elevated. >> nike report this is week and there are a critical difference between the two companies is nike is international and under armour is domestic when it comes to source. >> that is strength. and they are in aggressive growth. we're talking about years of double-digit top line growth which you won't get from n even though you have solid growth there. i think you are right to sell a put well out of the money because this is a rich stock. it is trading at about 100 times
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trailing 12-month earnings. and that said, i take a look at the pictures from my kids school year books, what does everybody want to wear. this is all under armour. they insist on it. so i expect the growth to continue. so if you make a bullish bet, it is a growth spot and you want it to be domestic. >> how does the chart look, carl? >> it is a good chart. it is going up. but what dan is doing, think about it, the strength on the august low is the exact same percentage is the strength we saw in the ricochet in boeing. he's favoring it, which is good technique. if you have a broken stock with strength and you want to sell that strength. and if you have a strong stock getting stronger, you want to stay with the strength. >> okay. coming up next, the final call from the "options action." i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff,
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what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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here at td ameritrade, they work wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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we want to welcome a new edition to the "options action" family. baby stutland was born this morning to brian and danielle. mom and baby are doing great. cute little guy there. and to a tweet. this one from in the money. should i sell a put to finance the long call on tesla. >> use out of the money, probably 235 strike to look at the 275. >> a clever twitter handle. time for the final call. last part of "options action." >> if everything is down. it will go down low. >> mikeco. >> he said the word. sku. and carter said it well, i think industrials set up a great resort. boeing is the one i want to do with defined risk, looking out to late october.
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>> our time is expired. i'm melissa lee for more "options action," check out cnbc and inside "fast money." see you back here next friday a got the ceo of netflix coming up next. my in additimission is simp make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money"! welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i just want the end of this day. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach so call me or tweet me @jimcramer. can we please, please, please take a break from the fed guessing game for at least a couple of days? would it be so terrible to focus on the real prize? buying the stockf
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