the emerging markets is largely priced. >> thanks so much for joining us. we do appreciate it. >> tomorrow, i'm going to be in a spot i haven't been in over 20 years. >> wow. >> how's that for a tease? >> can't wait to find out. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> and welcome to the closing bell, everybody. i'm kelly evans. and i'm bill griffeth. volkswagen ceo stepping down today. the story is far from over. we have more on the fallout for volkswagen itself, for the other automakers and for the european economy. there is a lot to talk about coming up. bill gross has a new message for the fed. and it's get off zero now. we'll break down why some are

saying the fed is doing more harm than good for this market and the economy. >> plus, the true cost of expensive drugs. the cleveland clinic ceo joins today. he says price hikes have already cost that institution more than $11 million. he will join us exclusively to talk about the changes that he would like to see in drug pricing. we always look forward to talking to toby cosgrove coming up. >> let's begin with the resignation of phil lebeau, breaking this important story for us earlier. phil? >> kelly, this is a story where volkswagen's management team is in crisis mode. earlier today, the executive committee, just a few members of the board of directors, they met with outgoing ceo after that meeting. they came out and announced that he is out as ceo. resigning, basically saying he didn't see that this crisis could go any further with him at the helm of the company, so he is stepping aside. however, the board said criminal proceedings may be relevant.

the ceo of volkswagen from 2007 all the way up to today. he has resigned. he says he is not aware of any wrong doing by himself, personally. having said that, a lot of people are now saying who's going to run this company and is there anybody there who can truly get to the bottom of this mess? three people are listed as the most likely choices to be the next ceo of volkswagen. you've got herbert deis, that could make him an attractive candidate. spent many years at bmw. in the middle is mathias muller, considered to be the frontrunner by people i've talked with in europe and here in the u.s. who are familiar with volkswagen. and on the right, rupert schtadler has done an incredible job with audi. the sales growth and what he's done at audi has a lot of people saying he could be the right person to clean up volkswagen.

while so much of this is focused on the executive shuffle in europe, it's important to point out that in volkswagen's perhaps biggest market in the u.s., in california, there are a lot of people who still feel duped by everything that has happened with regard to this diesel deception, and these vehicles rigged to pass clean air tests. earlier today, we had a chance to catch up with a few consumers in california. just gives you a sense of how upset some of these people are about what's happened. >> i think it's appalling, obviously. i was shocked. the fact that they would put software to cheat the smog testing is just unbelievable. >> before i thought of them as the peak of automakers. very trustworthy. good quality cars. and now i don't know what to think. >> that's where people tend to want to buy clean diesel vehicles. and again, one of volkswagen's

largest markets. still is one of its largest markets here in the u.s. guys, we've talked about it all day. a bit of a bounceback today. these shares were really whacked the last couple of days. it's going to be unsteady for a couple of days as they figure out who will be the next ceo. that is expected to happen on friday. that's when the board is expected to name the next ceo. >> as it stands with volkswagen more broadly, i guess the question is how critical was something like this clean diesel strategy to its overall targets to be the biggest car maker in the world, and what happens now? are those ambition s parred bac? or are we going to look back on this after we've moved on to six other stories in six months time? >> it was a key part of its strategy to grow sales worldwide, but especially here in the united states. think about it from wovolkswages perspective. for decades, that's been their strength. diesel engines and diesel vehicles. so the idea was let's take their strength in europe, let's send it to the united states, and

when this first started back in the 2005 to 2007 timeframe, clean diesel was attracted eiva lot of people not only because it was clean burning, but you had higher gas prices. a lot of that's changed now. as far as whether or not they shift their strategy, i suspect that diesel will aays be a big part of the strategy for volkswagen because it's going to be a big part of sales in europe. about half the vehicles for the entire industry sold in europe are diesel models. and so volkswagen will always be very strong in the diesel market. but there's no doubt this is worldwide. it has certainly rocked those interested in diesels and volkswagen models. >> all right, phil. thanks very much. more to come on that. meanwhile, volkswagen's crisis is rippling throughout europe and the auto industry itself. we welcome back sima.

>> thanks, guys, so much. this scandal certainly not good news for auto suppliers. dellphy automotive. the maker of automatic dimming mirrors. bank of america merrill lynch. earnings could be impacted if we do see a decline. if you're looking for auto component players that could fare better than the rest, check out axle and npg. analysts say these companies have the least exposure to volkswagen, which could be a near-term positive for these names. while investors try to figure out the global impact of the v.w. scandal, it's the european names that have been getting hit the hardest. seeing its sharpest one-day decline since august of 2011.

coming back a bit today. but bmw has fallen about 6% to 12% since this news broke. you can see some big losses there. >> as the journal noted, one in seven jobs tied generally speaking to the auto industry and germany. so there is much at stake for supply chain and also for these economies. >> it's been a growth engine for the growth engine of europe. >> that's exactly right. >> so we've got to keep an eye on that. >> meanwhile, shifting gears. see what i did there? bill gross urging the fed to get off of zero rates in his monthly investment outlook. here's what he said. my advice to them is this. get off zero and get off quick. near-term pain? yes. long-term pain, almost certainly. but get off zero now! >> stocks have not acted favorably since the fed decision. take a look at how the dow has

performed since thursday at 2:00 p.m. eastern. it's down more than 400 points. so, is bill gross right? let's talk about it in our closing bell exchange. monica, kenny, and our rick santelli. monica, is the federal reserve doing more harm than good here? >> i think bill is right. whatever appreciation we've seen from quantitative easing, i think it's gone through the system. the market's gone on up. at this point, he's right. we're going to see some short-term and long-term pain. my biggest concern for the consumer would be the impact for mortgage rates. for most consumers, most of their wealth is tied up in their home. more than 50% of household wealth. so as mortgage rates rise and consumers feel not so confident about their own household situation, that's when you can start to see them pulling back. household wealth has a much greater impact to consumer spending than what they have in the markets, bonds, etc.

it's just a much bigger number. >> here's the thing, rick. i'd love you to weigh in on this. even bill gross, somebody who knows much better than i would, seems to suggest that whatever the fed does with its short-term rate, has the only impact across the rest of the curb. so he's sort of saying this is all the fed's fall for keeping rates at zero, whereas you and i know if it was zero in a growing economy, the yield curb would be steepening and those rates would be moving up. >> i don't think the fed is necessarily driving the bus anymore in terms of what happens with rates. and that's surely driven by the fact that it's going on as long as it has. this is no magic -- it's not a magic potion that we have complete control over. the outcome is going to be the jot come and we're going to realize it and see it. that's what should give everyone -- >> rick, what do you think? you could have written that note by bill gross. >> well, i agree. i think there's two issues i want to point to. the first issue is the qualifier

that you had there, kelly, was growth. and growth is the key. and i don't see any correlation between growth in all of these policies worldwide, and repressive financial strategy. but even more, when you opened up the show, kelly, you said well maybe bill is right. look at what the stock market's done since the fed meeting. to me, that's problem number one. we have to break this new habit of thinking that what's good for the long-term health for this country is going to be reflected 72 hours after a fed meeting, or 24 hours after a fed meeting. i understand. we cover markets. markets are important. but we can't lose sight of the fact that our central bank needs to have a long view as anybody taking a long view. bill gross brings up the business model of pension funds. people's savings. all of that points to problems down the road with retirement. the third rail, entitlement,

servicing the debt. all these issues are long-term. i'm not sure anybody's paying enough attention to that. >> i've often thought we should do a long-term investing show on cnbc. >> once upon a time when the fed announced no rate increase, there would be celebrations all over the place. is it a coincidence that the market has sold off since then, or is that the reason that we've seen this 400-point decline in the dow? >> i think that's exactly the reason, i think because by now, as both rick and she has said is that the investors are really tired of this. it's gone on way too long. they've expected this normalization of rates to happen. every time it doesn't, they prepare us, and then they say no at the very last minute. quite honestly, i think investors are now going to be the one to make this decision and they're showing their disgust with the lack of decisiveness on behalf of the fed. i think it makes perfect sense. >> does it matter to the fed, though? we did the story of the day.

who's in charge of the monetary policy, the fed or the stock market? >> well, you know, it's going to be very interesting. after all the money and time that the fed has spent to get us where it is, do they want to see? i think what's going to happen is you're going to see this swift correction in the market. painful, yes. maybe it will be short-term, but it will be painful. and you can only imagine that people are going to start screaming about that. but at some point, it's going to happen sooner or later, so you might as well let the process begin. >> real quick, monica. where are you putting clients' money these days? >> well, right now, it's more of a wait and see situation. we're very heavily invested in texas and what's happening with oil is definitely making us a bit more concerned and just hunkering down for what is to come. not a quick resolution for what we're seeing in oil. with everything that oil touches in terms of the texas economy real estate, we are just in a little bit more of a wait and see mode and we're picking up bargains as we can find them. >> yes. oh, by the way, wti down 3.6%

today. >> that's right. if you're wondering why the markets have taken a leg lower -- >> that's probably the reason. >> thanks, folks. >> we have about 45 minutes to go here. the dow down 50 points. the nasdaq holding in there. it's only down seven. relatively speaking, it is the strongest of the three major averages. >> never mind that it's the first day of fall. the countdown to the holidays is on. find out why this year may not be filled with cheer for retailers. that's coming up next. >> hard to believe it's here. >> 92 days. we've got to get started. >> also ahead, how a government shutdown could impact everything. here we go. from government foik repogo. closing ball is back.

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minor declines for the stock market as we head toward the close. the dow down about 53 points right now. solar stocks are also moving lower today, including -- we're going to show you a quick graphic here, solar city, sun

power, and first solar. >> it may be the first day of fall, but retail experts have an early read that does not look very good. courtney reagan has the latest estimates now. >> hate to be a grinch. 92 days until christmas. but the first forecasts among the weakest that we've seen in years. the weakest forecast since 12. alex partners is even more pessimistic. at risk of falling below the lowest growth rate since the great recession. deloitte retail practice leader rod sides says disposable personal income was flat for most of the year, picking up only slightly more recentlying and while there are many influences pushing and pulling the economy and financial

markets when it comes to consumer spending, it all boils down to how we feel about our own personal financial circumstances. just seeing the numbers isn't necessarily enough to instill confidence. deloitte's weak forecast is causing his clients, which are retailers, to take down their expectations as well. it's not going to be a terrible christmas for retail. maybe more ho ho hum. those are his words. he thinks it will impact the higher income consumers and it's the lack of real wage growth. kelly and bill? >> did they cite any particular reasons, it wouldn't have as much to do with the economic cycle. i'm thinking of, for example, a lot of the really high deductions now for health insurance. some of the other things going on in this economy. did any of that come up? >> sure, and there's a lot of push and pull. that's the message i think they're trying to get across. yes, there are things in the economy, and in the markets.

but as you point out, things like higher health care costs, higher education costs and ways that we're spending our money a little bit different. it changes our consumer psyche and how much disposable income we really feel like we have and how we feel about spending it. it's a very hard thing to put your finger on, but a lot of people don't always feel so great about their jobs and salary, and that's what gets really tough with trying to put all this into the equation and spit out a number. >> when we try to handicap the holidays this season, holiday shopping is a lot like elections. it's a last-minute decision that people will make. there's a guilt factor that comes in. >> it's fun to follow along. the big "star wars" or whatever the interesting buzzy thing of the year is. >> exactly. most of us are scrambling around, right? >> and the patterns can change, too. a lot of higher income earners

may say they're going to spend less. but when it really comes down to, they end up spending actually a little more. but these are forecasts rather than surveys. so the surveys come out later and that's when we're really asking consumers. this is more based on economic models and other things that are going on. but like you said, it's a really hard thing to handicap. and deloitte points out that they're among the earliest forecasts and they don't update it throughout the season like others do. so if you've got a number of major storms or a government shutdown that wasn't happening when they made that forecast, that can change pretty drastically by the season's end. >> have them check back with us right after thanksgiving. >> there you go. >> then we can talk. >> thanks, courtney. >> thank you. >> see you later. >> 40 minutes left in the trading session. the dow is down 47. oil has been a big factor. we mentioned that earlier, with wti down 3.6%. one of our field producers tweeted out earlier, she paid $1.83 -- >> where? >> in central new jersey. a couple of hours ago.

it's a wonderful time right now. >> brace yourself. the federal government could shut down next week. >> also china's meeting with the ceos of apple, microsoft, among other top executives. we'll have the latest developments on china's courtship with the titans of tech, and coincidentally, that huge order from china for boeing jets. that's coming up on "closing bell." awe believe active management

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welcome back. we've noted lately just how many sessions seem to have everybody in the green or everybody in the red. well, today, a different story. and perhaps that's encouraging to some. certainly the stock pickers out there. at a moment when the dow is down 43 and the s&p is down about three points, pretty evenly split between gainers and decliners on that broad index. we'll see if it can turn positive here. >> see if we can make a comeback in the last few minutes of trading. believe it or not, the federal government is facing the real risk of shutting down on october 1st. that would be next week, if lawmakers fail to agree on a budget of some kind. eamon javers is here to break it down. >> here's where we think things are going to go. mitch mcconnell has said he's going to bring up a stopgap funding bill that will fund the government through december 11th. he'll bring that up tomorrow.

but that will have a writer on it that defunds planned parenthood. that's going to be unpalatable to democrats. then mcconnell will bring up a clean spending bill, and that is expected to pass in the senate. if it does, it will go over to the house, where next week, john boehner, the speaker of the house, is going to have some very difficult decisions to make because he's got a republican caucus that doesn't like that planned parenthood funding as well. so what does this all mean to you? there are all kinds of interesting and on stbscure imp of shutting down the federal government. one being that banks need to verify social security numbers. according to a white house report, last time around the banks in 2013 weren't able to verify those social security numbers to do transactions. the irs cited a backlog of 1.2 million verification requests that were logged back just in the first two weeks of the shutdown. also the faa. they've got an aircraft

registry. that closed back in 2013 and delayed 156 aircraft deliveries. and then finally, all of those stats that we talk about so much here on cnbc, including the jobs report. a lot of those were delayed or abandoned as well last time around. we'll have to see what happens this time. i can tell you guys, i've been e-mailing back and forth with the department of labor today to find out what their plan is for the jobs report next time around. if they have a plan for it, they're not telling me. essentially, they're really hoping that a government shutdown doesn't happen. >> this is such a thorny one. certainly in the last one, it was all about the ideology over who had the better strategy to address america's long-term budget problems. this is about abortion. and how much trickier does that make a resolution? >> it just makes it incredibly tricky. as you know, abortion is just a zero sum game. on the one side, there are people who wholeheartedly feel that they are stopping what they see as a holocaust.

they feel it's absolutely important and all these other business considerations are far less important than that. on the other side, you have people who feel they are defending freedom and personal choice and they're willing to go to the ends of the earth in the debate on that. so once you make this bill about abortion, it becomes very binary. they're going to have to finesse this next week. >> is it me, or is the threat of a government shutdown losing its stigma? we talk about it so cavalierly these days. before, it felt like armageddon. oh, we can't do that. now it seems like well, okay, we may have a government shutdown again. >> it's amazing what you can get used to. i was looking at some old video of the 2013 government shutdown. remember that great moment where they tried to shut down the world war ii memorial here on the national mall in washington, and the world war ii veterans showed up and said to heck with that and they removed the

barricades and walked right in and said we're reopening this sucker, and they did. so americans have seen this play out before. >> too many times. >> maybe they'll go over the barricades again this time. >> eamon, thank you. more to come on this story, our eamon javers in washington. time for an update. over to you, sue herera. >> members of south carolina's biggest labor union clashing with riot police in seoul. they're protesting government reforms that would allow companies to more easily fire workers. as of now, they can only be fired if they're involved in corruption, embezzlement or if there is financial danger. the $6 billion project has been criticized by environmentalists. be careful. that selfie could be dangerous. a new report finds that selfies are more dangerous than shark attacks.

eight people around the world have been killed by sharks this year, while 12 people have died taking a selfie. markable crunched the numbers and say they people need to focus less on screens and more on their surroundings. and charlie brown and the whole peanuts gang will soon be back on the big screen. to promote the movie, you can go online and turn yourself into a peanuts character. so what do you think? recognize those two? that's what you would look like. >> oh, my god. >> the movie comes out in november. >> did you up load a picture? how do they generate this? >> the elves in the graphics department went online. >> are you a girl? >> she's a little girl. and bill, we know who you are. >> i can't believe i'm admitting to this, but in sixth grade, we did the play, "your good man charlie brown." guess who i played?

i was charlie brown. a good guy with no hair. >> but surely not in elementary school. >> it's been coming a long time, kelly. >> let's just leave it at he is a good man. there we go. >> all right, sue, thank you so much. those are funny. >> we have emojis now. >> just what we need. the dow is down 45 points. the s&p only down about four this hour. the nasdaq down three. so we'll see if we get any green arrows as we head into the close. coming up, a leading trader will tell us what he's focusing on in these final minutes of trading. straight ahead, don't mismeg tyrell's special report on why some stocks are more expensive than others. reaction from the cleveland clinic. he says drug gouging is costing them more than $11 million. stay tuned. rking hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader,

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welcome back, heading into the close. here's a look at the sectors today. consumer stapables are in the

green. materials having the toughest session. caterpillar, united technology notably lagging the dow as it's down 60 points. >> we are in this critical last half-hour of the trading session. with me is ben willis from princeton securities. is it energy still calling the shots on the market here? >> i think it's a global picture. energy is the easiest way to encompass it all. we seem to separate from it. but the overall picture is the materials group and the energy definitely. there's some bright spots. it's mostly the safe haven utilities and comes. >> we've been talking about bill cross's missive. he says it would be worth the short term pain. is the stock market feeling this pain? >> this is driven by the inability to manage what they have created. whether it's the people's bank of china or the fomc.

they missed their opportunity. >> what's your gut telling you? kind of a lackluster field to the close. are we headed back to the august 25th lows? or what do you think is going to happen? >> i think it's probably healthy for the market to do that. but today's close, as you said, just like today. slightly to the sell side. for the trend of the market, for it to be able to close on its highs, i think we need to test, a definitive test rather than this movement where we've really been. >> thanks, see you later. >> the high cost of prescription drugs grabbing the nation's attention in the wake of "the new york times" piece this week about one drug maker raising prices by 5,000%. that got us wondering what some of the most expensive drugs on the market are and what they treat. meg tyrell joins us now. >> we've got the most expensive

drugs in the united states. it will be no surprise that we haven't heard of any of these drugs or diseases. these are all for very rare diseases. all of these drugs cost more than 500,0$500,000 a year, but of them except one has treated more than a thousand people this year. so these are very, very rare diseases. they include drugs like neglaxyme. these are for diseases like enzyme deficiencies, severe congenital protein c deficiencies. these are things that we haven't really heard of. shire sinrise has treated hereditary angio edema. you're going to see some names you recognize, both of drugs and of diseases. gilead will come as a surprise

to no one as the top-selling drug last year. it actually had more than a billion dollars in u.s. revenue, but ims's numbers, they're the ones who provided us this data. you'll see other very commonly used drugs. abilify. these are things that millions of patients use. so the highest priced drugs aren't the ones that are actually costing the system the most money. >> civaldi is one of the most expensive, isn't it? >> it's not even close. it costs $84,000 for 12 weeks of treatment. >> and it's not even close? >> not even close. all these top ten drugs cost more than $500,000 a year. it's a gene therapy. only approved in europe. costs about a million dollars, for one treatment. >> does it cure? >> it aims to cure. >> because in civaldi's case, it

is pretty much a cure, correct? >> oh, yeah. these are taking a toll on medical centers. the cleveland clinic says price hikes have cost them more than $11 million. >> let's bring in dr. toby cosgrove now. he is ceo of the cleveland clinic here in a cnbc exclusive. >> welcome back, toby. >> nice to talk to you, bill. >> i'm shocked at what meg was just telling us about the highest priced treatment that she was looking at, over half a million dollars a year. how is this not costing you guys more than $11 million? >> they're very rare diseases that you're seeing mostly. there is a drug that is a fairly common disease, civaldy. $84,000 for a course of treatment. if you look at the three million people across the country who have that disease, that would be more than $300 billion in cost to treat those people. which could be more than all the other pharmaceuticals combined.

>> i can hear the ceos of biotechs and pharmaceuticals now. they're going to say prices are set in part because we need the money for research and development. if we don't charge that much, we don't have the rnd to pursue more. is there a middle ground to figure out how they don't lose as much? >> absolutely. we recognize the pharmaceutical industry has created great drugs and we are very dependent upon them. we also recognize we have a responsibility to decrease the cost of health care across the country. we see some of the generic drugs have jumped up in price enormously.

simply by raising the price of drugs that have been around for 30 or 40 or 50 years. some of the drugs have had their prices raised eight, nine times. >> the overall cost of drugs as part of the overall -- they argue that it's remained consistent and the better way to control overall cost is to focus on hospitals and prujs. what do you think? >> i think everybody's part of it. we've taken out over $500 million in cost in our institution over the last two years and we recognize we're probably going to have to reduce our costs 15% or 20%. and we're working on that very hard over a five-year period of time.

we recognize the united states pays an inordinate portion of the bills for rnd. if you look at sovaldi, it is $84,000 in the united states, and $900 in egypt. so there's a big discrepancy. >> that said, and before you go, is it also true that the u.s. is the source of all of these innovative drugs? and if that's the case, is there a risk that we're going to accept lower drug prices in return for less drug innovation and perhaps saving fewer lives? >> no, i don't think so. i think it's perfectly possible to continue to control the use of our use of drugs and our cost of drugs, but this is going to take a collaboration between health care providers and manufacturers of drugs. >> toby cosgrove, always good to see you. thank you. welcome back. >> nice to talk to you. >> meg, thank you, as always. >> thank you, guys. is it 19 minutes already? >> look at that. >> it's later than it's ever

been. with the dow down 29 points, we are starting to head back a little bit. >> the nasdaq is now in the green, higher by about a point and a half. we'll see what happens as we head into the close. >> meantime, the pope generating plenty of attention in washington today. but out in seattle, the other washington, the president of china has people talking as well. michelle caruso-cabrera has the latest on his meetings with american business owners coming up. >> pope francis is the rock star when it comes to visiting dignitaries. later on, closing bell will tell you about the papal event that could be bigger than the super bowl. you're watching cnbc. turns ro, why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions

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a lot of times, announcements like this are made to mark the moment and give a real reason the talk about things or to show that there's been some kind of outcome as a result of the meeting. so yes, an order announced by china for a big number of boeing planes. xi is now headed over to microsoft. before his meeting this afternoon at microsoft, he was here in the westin hotel behind me. we saw ceos, a big roster there, talking about a number of issues. he understands that there's some headwinds when it comes to china, but they are doing things to address the economic headwinds and he's convinced

that china can continue to grow at a relatively strong pace. after this, he's headed over to microsoft. that's another meeting with ceos much larger, much more secretive. there's also going to be a lot of start-ups there. the topic is the internet. how they want to expand the internet, but also what kind of rules they're going to impose. we expect there to be less and it's a less open meeting than what happened here with the meeting organized by hank paulson. >> while he's in this country, business-wise, it's a love fest. when he goes to washington, d.c. and meets with the president, he's going to get beaten up politically over human rights issues. which really is a microcosm of the u.s. relationship with china right now, isn't it? >> yeah, it's an absolutely great observation.

and he's trying to counter that. in this meeting with the ceos just now, he said listen, when disney wanted to open a park in shanghai, there was a debate about whether or not we should let disney do it or we should just do a china-style theme park. he said, i voted for disney because i wanted to diversify culture. so he's trying to counter those criticisms that invariably he's going to face when he gets to washington. >> michelle, thanks very much. >> meantime, we have 12 minutes to go until the markets close. the dow is down about 32 points. the nasdaq did just recently turn positive by about a point. >> just signaled flat close here. >> feels a bit like the markets today. >> symptomatic of what we've had. our next guest is optimistic

about earnings season coming up and he'll tell us why when kelly and i come back.

♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

nine minutes left in the trading session here.

joining us, chris heisey from bank of america. you were seeing a slowdown in much of the world economy. oil prices continue to move lower, which pushes equity prices down. earnings season is coming and we're not expecting much from them as well. >> yeah, i think if you rewind and go back six months, maybe even 12 months ago, you saw the same story then. there's not a lot that gives us this enthusiastic approach that says you're the catalyst that's going to stop the market from being like a zombie right now and move forward. there really isn't anything up until potentially third quarter earnings. but we're still constructive for a few reasons. there's a masive paradigm shift going on right now. developing world market growth is seeping into developed market growth and by default, their larger economic zones are growing slower.

>> meanwhile, people are using terms like revenue recession. we've talked about this, but we are going to see revenue declines, potentially three quarters in a row of 3%-plus and maybe in the fourth quarter another 1% or 2%. how significant is that? it's one thing if it's just stock prices correcting, but i guess it's another if top line growth is really shrinking. >> that's a good point. we actually need -- this is a world in which we're searching for top line growth everywhere. it's going to continue. some areas that are not being factored in is the consumer. the consumer's a lot healthier than most of the investing public thinks or is given credit for. this balance sheet exercise with the collapse in commodity prices is finally starting to feed through into consumer net income. >> shouldn't we be getting better surveys on holiday spending? >> i think it's a little early for that. we're on the cusp of that. >> so where do you invest? are you investing for growth, or are you more defensive in what you're buying right now? >> the big correction that we've

had recently is a combination of redemptions hitting the mutual funds space, and obviously you tend to take profits in what has worked. we want to let that correct a little more and go back to the growth areas. it's a little bit of cyclical growth. the value side of the equation is not there yet. we're setting ourselves up for a much better october and november than we've seen. >> all right, appreciate your views. that's chris hyzy. the dow still down. >> we'll be back with a closing countdown. where do you think you can get a ten-year bond yielding 16% right now? we'll show you in just a moment here. also, facebook topping twitter in another metric. we've got the details on what that is coming up after the bell. keep it right here. can protect capital long term.

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our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. my drivers don't have time to fill out forms. tablets. keep it all digital. we're looking to double our deliveries. our fleet apps will find the fastest route. oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. ahh, you're good. i like to bake. add new business services with at&t and get up to $500 in total savings. inside three minutes, time for the closing countdown. i asked bob pisani where can you get 16 1/4% on a ten-year bond? we'll get back to that. this is the time when the fed announced no rate cut and we're down in that time from the beginning of thursday, we're down 2.6%.

one of the catalysts is oil and today we saw that again. we still are seeing downward pressure for equities and commodities as well. so where do you get 16 1/4% on a ten-year? >> brazil? i was going to say malaysia. >> this is a ten-year chart of that ten-year. look at that. we're back to where it was yielding a like amount at the height of the financial crisis. at least -- you know, this is one of those emerging markets, or brick nation in this case, that they were talking about last week at the fed meeting that could be hurt by a race increase here in the united states. >> the only problem here is you're investing in brazil. >> of course. >> and we had this problem

before. so everybody who's buying here, who is trying to buy right here -- of course, you see what's going on. want to buy brazilian bonds right here. you see what's going to happen. >> you've got a problem. >> a big problem. >> and this brazilian market at new lows today. huge drops. and once again today, the global -- concerns about the global economic slowdown. materials down more than 2%. global industrials down 1% to 2%. and even energy down as well. so there's this global slowdown concerns moving the market. >> we talked about the revenue recession a little while ago. >> exactly. the manifestation of the slowing global concerns is, one, lower commodity prices, and two, revenues. if we can put up the -- we've been talking about this all day, what i've been calling the revenue recession that's going on. we are now heading for four straight quarters of negative revenue growth. there it is. we haven't had three quarters of negative revenue growth since 2009. we haven't had four since the financial recession.

i think this is going to be a big story, and we've been concerned about it for a while. it's not getting any better. earnings might be flat. we might have that, but revenues aren't getting out of negative territory. >> thanks, bob. see you later. so we're going out with minus signs on wall street on this yom kippur. stay tuned for the second hour of "the closing bell" with kelly evans and company. i'll see you tomorrow. thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. let's see what happened with markets on the bell. the s&p and the nasdaq couldn't quite do it. but going out with almost the exact same point decline as that s&p, down by about four points today. joining the panel now, susan ox, and john najarian, and guy ad

adami. for a while, really dragged markets with it. do we need the oil price to go back up for stocks to start rallying again? >> yes, 100%. i was talking to john's brother pete. good-looking man. he said let's face it. the pope's in town. chinese premier is in town. not a lot going on in the equity markets. but the story of the day was the movement of brazilian currency and the subsequent move lower in the oil market. the oil volatility index still above 50, says to me that the next leg in oil is lower. that with the fact that the refiners rallied hard today. that signals to me that you're going to probably see continued weakness in crude oil. >> what about that, john? >> well, here's the backdrop to exactly what guy just said. you've got the brazilian real,

4.11. mexico peso, over 17 to the dollar today. so when you've got that and you've already got commodities that are sliding like this, whether it's a commodity-based economy, like australia, like brazil -- i mean, these are major problems for these guys and they're getting less for their products and they're just flooding the market with as much as they possibly can. so in other words, until those currencies stabilize a little bit, these guys are going tok g -- to be getting less and less for what they're selling. if they don't get that, it's going to keep going lower. on the plus side, the drawdowns at least from here have been pretty good lately, so they're drawing down supplies. we'll see exactly how much supply comes off the market as far as new stuff up in north dakota, south dakota, and elsewhere. >> i'm just picking up on your comments about these emerging markets currencies. the history does not suggest that they find their footing easily. that usually when they start to slide, they break. if they haven't broken yet, they're already weak.

what does that imply for the global economy? >> i think it's exactly right. i think we forget sometimes, we talk about china, the slowdown this. people seem to think that's a binary relationship. i think we are going to see more turmoil and it will get worse before it gets better. >> do you mean it's ultimately the u.s. stock market that's going to be buffetted by this? are we fundamentally talking about growing risks to the u.s. economy? >> i think they are thinking about all of these pieces affecting the real economy in the u.s. >> i was a little bit surprised to see just how soggy some of these holiday spending numbers look. >> i think they're wrong. i'm not just talking my book.

i have like this much as far as in retail right now. but i think retail will do just fine. i think the fact that gasoline prices are down as low as they are, and the fact that a lot of what consumers wanted was not available to them because of the slowdown at the ports and long beach and elsewhere. so i think this christmas, people will be looking at this as an escape as well as, you know, 3% or 4% gain is what they're calling for right now in holiday shopping. i'll take that any day and i think it beats that. >> i want to talk about the u.s. dollar. this does all come back to in a sense. this revenue growth for the s&p 500 companies pretty weak. i mean, the weakest stretch we've seen since 2009. is a lot of that because the dollar is lopping some of that revenue? if we're down 3% year on year, the dollar was up at one point 20% through march. so maybe things aren't quite so bad as they look. or are they?

>> you know, it's like the weather was a great excuse a couple winters ago. if this was a phenomenon just the last couple weeks, i'd say give these companies a break. but the volatility in currencies you've seen for six to nine months. it's incumbent upon the people that run these shops to figure it out. there are ways to wedge a currency risk. it's not a good excuse in my book. with that said, you hit the nail on the head. the chasm continually gets wider and wider. that's not sustainable. at a certain point, something's gotta give. and you're seeing a manifestation of the selloff in the stock market. so i think there are troubles ahead in terms of earnings season. you're going to find it out the next couple weeks. that will be the driver of this market going forward. it's not going to stop here. i'll tell you that categorically. >> understood. one of the areas of the market,

guy, frankly the real outperformer is biotech and health care more broadly. this ultimately is a sector specific issue. it shouldn't be that impactful to the stock market more broadly. this was the one area where everyone could find growth, top line growth especially. in an otherwise stagnant environment. >> i agree with that comment as well. i think the biotech stocks that we talked about at 5:00 on "fast money" are great companies. but you know what? they will not be they will get caught up in the maelstrom as well. you have the news out of -- the name escapes me. mr. bass talked about his shorting supply of tech stocks, coupled with hillary clinton's comments. now you have a perfect storm working against the space. the etf will drive the individual names. whether it's justified or not, the ivb, the etf will not down the individual names.

there will be a point where you can buy these stocks, and i think you'll see consolidation in the space, but they will not be spared, let's put it that way. >> as we continue to look for places that might be spared, our next guest is betting on financials like bank of america and american express. bill snead joins the fray now. bill, good to see you. american express. make the case. >> well, before i go to that, could i address what you just talked about? >> with regard to biotech? please. >> biotech. first of all, we think amgen looks spectacular here and people in a year won't remember what was creeping them out. secondly, brazil stiffed everybody in the world and defaulted on their debt in 1988. we did a thing called "the brady bunch" to clean it up for them. and oil bottomed in 1991. the idea that oil will cost the stock market rally on a five to ten-year basis is insanity. it's exactly the opposite.

pete's gotta right. lower gasoline's great. so amgen looks attractive. when they sell the etfs, they automatically sell amgen. >> just to correct you, it's guy adami here. we've got john over here and a susan. anyway, carry on. >> right. households in the united states are running the cleanest income statements and the cleanest balance sheets in the last 35 years. so what's going to happen is everyone's worrying about brazil and china and all these other places, and what's going on on the ground, the united states is about to explode to the upside. 32% of the buyers of existing homes this week were first-time home buyers. highest number in a long time. we've got 86 million millennials that don't own a home yet.

everyone is going to get out and away from this market just in time for the millennials to just pile in here. >> i love your points, but you also were making this point in january about the health of the millennial buying class, if you will, really coming to the fore this year. and while we're seeing that, it hasn't been the best year for the markets. so how do you still kind of use this theme, which might take a little while to emerge, to find really atrackive plays there, and what about that weak holiday sales forecast we just saw? >> well, we make a living by making money, but we also make a living by beating the index. and that approach has been beating the index. >> and that specifically means picking the companies millennials really like in parts of the housing market that you're referencing here as well? >> we're talking about five to ten-year trends that are just starting. you have to skate to where the puck is going to be. see, a 28-year-old single male eats at chipotle and drinks craft beer and listens to music

on electronic device and listens to netflix. a 35-year-old couple with two kids is watching everything they can on tv, won't take the toddlers to chipotle, and won't care that much about craft beer. so the market is making a transition on this correction and people just don't want to look out a year, two years, three years. and that's what they should be doing. >> this is like -- it's almost like bill's listening in to the conversations they're having with friends these days. >> i don't know if i'm the wrong one or the right one. my sense is i'm wrong. i'll take the wrong comment in terms of crude oil. i think the move lower in crude oil is not based necessarily on supply, it's more demand side. that said, i think we have this global deflationary problem. i think crude going higher is a

bullish thing for the stock market. i can't have a three-year view of anything because i don't know where i'm going to be tomorrow at this time. i think the market is under pressure. i think things are going on in south america that are potentially cataclysmic. and you see what's going on in the german dax. the dax was going down before this volkswagen news came out. it was headed lower in the first place. you can look at the science and say everything's great, or at the trouble ahead. >> you were talking about betting on financials, a lot of people in the industry are starting to talk about the deterioration of credit. so we're starting to see a push more into subprime, especially in auto loans. is this really going to be the boom for financials that i want it to be? >> that is a great point. thank you for bringing that up. 28-year-old millennials have the

best balance sheets that 28-year-olds have had in the last 40 or 50 years. the problem we've got in the united states economy is 28-year-old people are behaving like 60-year-old people two years before they retire. we need the velocity of money to pick up. and as soon as they get married, they're forced by getting married and forced by having children for the velocity of their money. the table in the restaurant needs to get sold over and over. bank of america and american express are going to see the table and the restaurant get sold over and over again as soon as these people are forced to rather than share a car ride, share their life with somebody. >> last word, dr. j. >> five would be the last word. not five different statements, just five days. that's how long we've got until the end of the quarter. what we're all talking about here, even guy adami, who doesn't know where he's going to be tomorrow afternoon, five days from now we know the quarter comes to an end september 30th. i think a lot of that pressure, guy, changes pretty

substantially as we get into the end of this quarter. so you'll be back. i imagine you'll be back here tomorrow, guy. and we'll both be cheering once the new quarter begins is what i think. >> fair enough. and before we let you go, bill. just narrow it down for us, aside from b of a and axp, two names that you like? >> we like amgen. if you've really got courage, all of the television affiliates and newspaper companies fit into chipotle's market cap, and we like news corps in that area. >> all right. thank you so much. a pleasure, bill, as always. and guy adami, thank you for your time. >> i was waving to somebody at the nasdaq. lisa, your executive producer, she's mad at me. i apologize. waving on camera. i even loved this dude who didn't know who i was. >> you're like the babe ruth guy. we wouldn't expect anything less. >> there's much more coming up at 5:00. on "fast money," guy adami and the crew talking the a technician who says another

german behemoth could be in even more trouble than volkswagen. find out what that is coming up. now, twitter thwarted again. instagram's user base searching and surpassing twitter's, and facebook on its way to topping twitter again with a new interactive ad platform. we'll tell you all about it next. also, it is pumpkin spice latte season. but these drinks might not be quite as popular as all the buzz would make you think. more on this story and what it could mean for starbucks coming up. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. >> it's time for the your business entrepreneur of the week. thread up has removed the difficulties of buying and selling your clothes by picking them up and selling them for you. and not surprisingly, technology is at the heart of the new trend. for more, watch your business sundays at 7:30 a.m. on msnbc. selling 18 homes?

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welcome back. facebook monetizing its messenger service. the company announcing that instagram handily beating twitter's 316 million users. joining us right now, ron and steve, welcome to you both.

how significant is this for twitter? that facebook just keeps growing. >> the same overall market. but the fact that instagram can continue to grow their users, it just shows that there's still a lot of growth here overall. instagram has a lot of momentum. >> facebook is our top deck. just doing extremely well. they've got tremendous engagement. that oddly enough continues to keep growing. we think they're still relatively early in montization.

on twitter, we think they have a lot of options for keeping value. i think we're positive on twitter, but for more of a company that's more, call it longer down the path of two million advertisers, facebook is one that we're very positive on. >> meanwhile, you are more bullish on twitter generally speaking. i wonder about med cap, the law of networks. i understand this means they have room to grow, but if they don't do it quickly, they risk being left behind, don't they? >> yeah, they do. but i want to point out one thing with facebook. instagrams got 400 million users. that's fantastic. but for the overall company, we can't just buy into instagram. you have to buy the company that it's attached to and that's the

beast that's losing hundreds of millions of people who are now using instagram instead of facebook for their pictures and daily activities. instagram is an easier product to use. more attractive to most people. so in that scenario, is facebook really gaining ground? twitter, yes. they have a huge ceo problem. well, they don't have a ceo. but is their stock really -- should it be down 25% the last three months because of that? and if it does, is there revenue really down that much? no. they're going to get a ceo. i don't know when. soon, hopefully. are we going see a snapback then? isn't that company more discounted in its valuations? i've got no problems with facebook. good company. but right now, i would say twitter is probably a higher probability of success in the next couple months to year. >> i think that there's a different emotional connection than customers have with these

two companies. so the ceo of instagram happens to be an old colleague of mine from the treasury department. she posted, when they hit the 400 million mark, she said, instagram has changed the way i look at the world. you're looking at the world through somebody else's eyes. it's more a visceral, emotional connection, whereas twitter is sort of like what cute one-liner quips and people use it as a r curated news feed. that's part of why you're seeing this difference in the growth rate. >> so true. john, if you could only use one from now on, twitter or instagram, what would it be? >> it would be twitter. >> really? >> yeah. but the groelt owth out of inst has been phenomenal, but 77% is overseas. it's a valuable group. don't get me wrong. but if i'm a u.s. advertiser, advertising a product for sale here, i want to get in front of

somebody who's on our soil, not necessarily 300 of the 400 million that are overseas. >> also a fair point. we thank ron and steve for joining us this afternoon. facebook versus twitter. we'll talk more about tech and silicon valley's relationship with china when elevation partner's roger mcnamee joins us coming up. and america is embracing pope francis. he's holding a mass in washington to canonize a new saint, the first hispanic american saint by the way. we'll break down the numbers behind the pope's visit, and they're bigger than the super bowl. we'll tell you where and why, when we come back.

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today marks pope francis's first full day on u.s. soil. he's in washington and will travel to new york tomorrow afternoon, and telecomm companies are shelling out big bucks in those cities to make sure customers can document it all. mary thompson joins us with the details now. >> at&t is calling the pope's visit bigger than the super bowl, and verizon says it spent 18 months planning for his six-day tour, all to make sure those selfies, videos and tweets are shared quickly and without interruption. at&t wireless says it spent $25 million to make sure it has the capacity needed for the pope's visit, well above what it budgets for other big events like rock concerts and the super bowl. those budgets usually run between 6 to $16 million. verizon wireless spent $24

million, and most of that money was put into philadelphia, which is hosting the main event at the pope's visit. that's sunday's outdoor mass concluding the festival with families. an estimated two million people are expected to attend. so where does the money go? well, at&t beefed up reception in the city's subway system. that's in philadelphia. and both firms are deploying temporary antenna systems along with cell cites in philadelphia and new york. those are called c.o.w.s, the acronym for cells on wheels. some are referring to them as holy cows. back to you. >> john, what do you think, when you're thinking about an at&t or verizon, opportunities like this are huge for them, i'm sure, in differentiating in who might be in the crowd and i can selfie this quicker than you can. >> the speed is something that all of us that have smart phones talk about a lot and obviously

that's a frustration for many of us. if there was one getting a faster speed than another, i'm sure there's a cell phone blocker in that area, or some sort of data blocker, somebody could employ that. >> oh. where's the spirit? >> ever since volkswagen did that, i'm sure there are engineers that are looking to cause rates of exchange of data to be slower. if they did that at the right time -- >> then you get results. i wonder, mary, did you mention t-mobile or sprint? the biggest two have the most to spend potentially. but are the two behind them keeping up? >> these are the ones that i spoke to. a big spend by at&t and verizon wireless. one of the reasons they're doing it, the pope is a bit of a phenomenon on twitter and social media. you know, he has over 24 million followers on twitter around the

world. and on average, any mention of the pope, that happens on twitter 32,000 times a day. these companies want to be ready for their customers when he comes. >> and we're learning new terms, like cells on wheels. >> holy cows. i like that one, right? >> holy cows. that's a great one. mary, thank you very much. our mary thompson. huge amounts of money. it is the super bowl. time now for the cnbc news update. >> interesting watching those pictures of the mass. volkswagen expected to name a new ceo on friday. earlier today, martin winterhorn resigned in the wake of the emissions scandal. the car maker says 11 million cars may contain software that cheated emissions tests. parts of fargo, north dakota, under water this morning. heavy rain came on too quickly

and it was too much for storm drains to handle. cars were stalled in the flooded streets. we're told, though, that all the water has receded at this point. three schools in suburban chicago have been closed due to elevated levels of legion ella bacteria. no word on when those schools can reopen. and a new study says fidgeting in your seat may actually be good for you. british researchers say it could help offset the negative health effects of sitting for hours at a time. and they say that they see a strong association between sitting, fidgeting, and mortality. that means i can tell my son he doesn't have to sit still all the time. >> exactly. as i'm shaking my foot, playing with the pen, justification for all of it. >> me, too. >> thank you so much, our sue herera. china and the u.s. have had a tense relationship regarding internet security. will the chinese president's visit with top tech leaders in seattle help smooth things over? roger mcnamee joins us with his

take when we come right back. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade.

you got this.

the dow gave up 50 points. it was down 100 at the low of the session.

it was weaker again today, crude. the s&p gave up about four points and nasdaq almost positive, but also was down by about four. chinese president xi jinping meeting with executives today. protecting intellectual property and cyber attacks. just two of the topics on that agenda. joining us now with more on the issues, roger mcnamee from elevation partners. what's the early word on how this all went down? >> you know, so far, it feels pretty positive to me. let's keep in mind, we're talking about baby steps. we've been in a really difficult situation with the chinese for several years, because their economy was ripping along, and we in the united states had a political process that was essentially making it very hard to make any kind of diplomatic moves. now we're in a situation where our president is in the last two years of his term. he has more flexibility in his action.

the chinese economy has slowed down. their market has come down. so both sides have a lot to gain from making an improvement in the business of dealing with the other. and what's really great is technology is one of the largest beneficiaries of any warming in the relationship. as i say, it's baby steps so far, but i'm modestly positive. >> i guess i can't tell from the narratives around all of this whether u.s. tech companies are seen as part of the solution because business ties obviously are important to these two nations getting along. or if it's part of the problem, because they're basically willing to do whatever it takes to tuck seed in china, even if that means overlooking a lot of practices washington isn't happy with. >> well, i think that is a very astute analysis. and i do think that is the challenge for american companies doing business in china. i think you've seen some companies like apple be successful against that model, and others like yahoo or linkedin, where they have been, shall we say, more comfortable, and their business had lent

themselves to a more difficult practice. the way i look at this now is the united states needs markets for its technology. the chinese need to restore growth -- higher rates of growth to tear economy. in there is an opportunity for a more positive relationship and i think we should not expect giant wins out of any of this. what i think this is really about is having constructive dialogues. when i look at it, what excites me is there are several american executives who built excellent relationships in china. i point to tim cook at apple. and to my mind, what you just need is analogies that allow people to extend the opportunity going forward. and both sides need the other. we cannot continue that we can grow without china as a market and china cannot possibly grow without the u.s. as its largest trading partner. so i think we have the basis for a constructive relationship and it's really about the cultural

differences, and can we bridge them. as i said, because of the politics in the u.s., because obama can't run again, he has more freedom and i think he has an excellent disposition relative to chinese culture, so like i said, i'm not expecting big steps right away, but some improvement i think is distinctly possible here. >> and it's a different tone than andrew brown is taking in "the wall street journal" today, where he says those in the west who thought they were getting a gorbachev style reformer and president xi jinping and he alludes to hank paulson as being one of them, didn't take the trouble to listen to what he was saying or see what he's doing in practice, which is not at all to be friendly for privatization and opening up the economy. but in fact moving the other way. >> and we'll have to see. again, i don't profess to be an expert on the internal dynamics of china, but i do understand the way the macroeconomics work. they need us, we need them. both sides are going to have to compromise in some places. and the question is, you know, is that area for compromise great enough to enable u.s.

companies to do more business there? and all i know is that the preconditions for compromise are better today than the last five years. >> and we did hear a positive tenor from cody earlier in the program. >> i'm sure david would agree that property rights are one of the biggest impediments. >> in the tech sector, that has been a huge issue. cisco has complained for more than a decade about theft of i.p. obviously microsoft has done the same. and i don't think there's an easy cure for that. but i do know that to the extent that the chinese buy more stuff in the open market at real prices, that will help to ameliorate the problem. i don't know that there's any way to eliminate theft of intellectual property anywhere in the world, but to the extent that the revenues rise, people will find it easier to live with the thefts that are taking place. >> all right, roger, thank you for joining us. >> it's a pleasure.

>> roger mcnamee from elevation partners. the energy sector getting slammed on falling energy. is there more pain ahead? that is next on "the closing bell." or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial.

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it was a tough session today if you recall a materials company or an energy one. those down the most, about 2% and 1.4% representatively.

and markets broadly speaking further into negative territory. for french energy group total, for more on whether more companies will follow suit, let's bring in tom petri, and john kilda. welcome to you both. tom, listen, if total is trying to get ready for $45 oil in 2019, how many others are beginning to have to make the same adjustments? >> most of the peer group for total will be proceeding along similar lines. this is that unintended consequence of being low for an extended period of time. opec will find the adjustments have consequences down the road on the other side of this. but yes, i do expect it to spread quite a bit, and if we get it lower, it will compound that challenge for opec. >> john, i guess that's why the

market behaves so badly every time crude continues to fall because it points toward further pain. >> no doubt about it, kelly. and today, you saw the beginning of what was a big part of my thesis in terms of even lower prices as we go into the fourth quarter here, sub $30 a barrel. we saw the largest drop in refinery runs in eight months today. so that's what set off the selling of crude oil. that's what made the realization come to the fore that the glut's only going to get worse here in the short-term. >> susan? >> isn't this generally the way of the markets? isn't this what we would expect to happen? people have to start making adjustme adjustments. everyone's reacting to this news like it's a big surprise, but we've had low oil prices for quite a long time. shouldn't companies be more into a groove of understanding how to do this? tom? >> i think you're right about that. i think the first recovery from 43 back to 61 was the real surprise. the point i was making to people was don't count on a v-shaped recovery.

you put two vs back-to-back and you find a w, and that's what we're living through. we've got to see u.s. production come in some more. that's a prerequisite. and so far, the u.s. efforts to bring russia to the table on syria are not resulting in any progress. just the opposite. we're seeing aircraft assets put into syria. so that's not part of the equation. >> john? >> yeah, i agree. i think you take a look at some of the regimes around the world that are so desperate for any kind of revenue and the fact that they've got the spigot wide open and saudi is doing nothing, at least so far, to curb that. that's one of the biggest impediments. even beyond our shale production. >> all that said, how are you playing this space? what parts of it are you involved with or staying away from entirely? >> well, i've had some -- what i thought were great trades and i've had some horrible trades in this sector. in particular, the enp

exploration production space. that's been, you know, feast or famine. there's no middle of the road there. so if you catch them right, and many of them are now at their lows again, i think you can make a good buck, if you're willing to catch that falling knife. >> john, what would you say to people who wonder hey, all right, there are distressed parts of this market. should i be investing now, or is this w that tom referenced actually just a lightning bolt that takes everybody down? >> i like that w. i'm going to have to steal that, i think, tom. that was terrific. look, kelly, i think it's way too early to touch these things. there's another big leg down here in my view. the stocks are going to get pounded again. we're seeing their credit lines dry up left and right. the announcement's coming out on that, probably about a 30% to 40% reduction in credit lines across the board. but what's most unfortunate is the unintended consequences. i hope we're not saying we're more dependent on foreign oil than we ever were before and

we're back in the same suit we were during the latter part of the '90s and 2000s. this total announcement is not in isolation. it's across the board. >> and we'll see how it does affect a lot of the american new producers. thank you very much. it's called the match.com for investors, but this site is about roi, not romance. the website that allows clients to search for their perfect financial adviser. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive. it's active. that's the power of active management.

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welcome back. from the university of pennsylvania to stanford, there are prestigious business schools around the country, but which ones turn out the best money managers? eric chemi joins with us the wall street scorecard. >> president obama in recent days has been talking about his college scorecard. so we here krumpcrunched the nu on the best wall street colleges, to see if you went to these schools where you might end up. we looked at asset management. people running money on wall street. number one on the list, it's penn. this is based on undergrads, of course, not the graduate schools, the mba programs.

we focused on the undergrads where more people have different opportunities. penn is number one on the list followed by a lot of these ivy league names. the one standout that surprises me on this list, the university of virginia. they have 195 graduates from their undergrad program on wall street, in the asset management space. running a lot of money. but just because they're number one, penn isn't number one in every product, in every asset class. so take a look at some of these other groupings. obviously penn is number one for u.s. equities, but that's not true for fixed income. in this list, you see nyu is number one. it's a good thing nyu is doing more fixed income, because when you look at their equity performance, they're actually at the bottom. they're number 25 out of 25 big schools in u.s. equities, so it's a good thing they're doing fixed income. there's been a lot of problems in fixed income. they'll have to watch out for a lot of things. harvard is big in europe. so all these schools, they have different areas of expertise. this might be a factor to

consider for companies looking to hire people. this could be a factor to consider. >> there are some usual suspects. we have a couple along the lines of berkley, john, and duke. i didn't see those names up there. in my blue devils. >> and columbia, would you see to see them on the list just as you see new york on there. would you like to see columbia because i know they matriculate into the financial markets because of the proximity to wall street. >> they have to take a train ride downtown, eric. >> and smart people. >> columbia is well represented. not in the top five when it comes to the over all numbers but when you look at the specific categories, the foreign trading, the foreign management, columbia is a number one in the categories. sow have to dig into the details to which finds the right areas for that. >> and virginia's darden school, turns out a lot of people will go on to darden and of course go on to careers in asment

management. love it. thank you. eric chemi. >> so finaling the right adviser can be a task. enter guide vine. matching consumers with an adviser who best fits their financial needs. kind of like online dating for your portfolio. joining on the spark is the ceo of guide vine. welcome to you. >> welcome, kelly. >> so what is -- are you tinder for financial advisers. what are you doing? >> i think you got it right when you said match.com for investors an that is when we try to be for anyone looking for a financial adviser. we want to give you the tools, whether it is our matching algorithm, watching videos and for adviser we're a digital marketing platform and we let them work to put their best foot forward with all of their properties. >> what kind of questions are you asking people. >> how much they are looking to put to work, have they had life

events, what services they are looking for and as people talk about working with advisers across the nation, how important is distance for you, things like that. and then we go from there and show them videos of the matches and see if they like anyone. >> what do you think, suzan. >> i love this idea. i think people don'ten daj a financial adviser because they don't know where to turn and who to trust. and i know you have a piece where customers could put in recommendations and i like this guy and i didn't like this guy. and you are calling in information from other sources and the trust of an adviser and making sure you are pulling the disciplinary data because there is a split through the s.e.c. and the state federally but some are only registered locally with the state security agency so making sure as a user of the site, i know you've done that homework for me and so tell me how you are doing that.

>> actually, we don't allow testimonials, so people can't write in that they like someone or not because the s.e.c. doesn't allow that but they can analyze -- >> but there is say score next to the person. >> that is on the meeting experience. but for every adviser, they have have toe registered with the s.e.c. and the state and they have to be an ira and a security and then we do a criminal, civic and regulatory diligence on them. >> like uber. >> better than uber. and then when we talk to them, it is a two-way interview. do we think we can help them in their practice and do they fit with us. because at the end of the day we want to provide quality advisers to our investors. >> and it is free to the customers but the advisers are paying a fee to be after they are interviewed if they qualify to be on the site and/or is there a production fee they pay for?

>> sure. it is free to consumers, no matter what you do. and for advisers, it is an annual subscription. whether they meet with ten people, five people, 20, zero. >> who are the advisers. independent guys that need a way to connect with clients and come from existing franchises and do you steer people based on the fee structure or otherwise? >> sure. we have advisers from large firms like raymond james, lpl, a few others and boutique operators and everyone in between. and they offer a range of services from focus investment strategies to the family office. and our consumers are 40-45, some have over a million. most of them have over a million they are looking to put to work. and some have tens of thousands of dollars. so we offer a range of advisers that could work with anybody. >> we'll be following along. thank you so much for joining us and explaining the new front ear for finding an adviser. >> my pleasure. >> check out much more on the

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today might be the first official day of fall but we've been hearing about the highly anticipated pumpkin spice lawsuit as since august. and surprisingly a study found a majority of consumers purchase just one in the fall and winter. that was last year. guys, are you surprised to hear that the pumpkin space lawsuit a craze is one and done? >> no, not at all. it is like if you get a bad puffer fish except you don't die with the pumpkin spice lawsuit a. >> so you are a fan. >> if you've had one, you are enough. puffer fish and pumpkin spice. >> this has to be a bubble. if everybody tries it and just likes it once -- >> it is the seasonality thing. like the mcrib. it comes out and you forget how

you liked it and didn't like it and the fall and the leaves are turning. >> it is not just starbucks. >> the whipped cream on top with the lawsuit a, you wouldn't be getting it kel, if you get one in the first place. >> i have never had one but any sister is a big fan. what about you guys. >> i'm a one and donor, but i have one por season and i'm getting in and poking around and buy other stuff so from a marketing employ, it is fine. >> do you do the psl? >> no. i just like coffee black and strong. >> and what about pumpkin pie. >> love pumpkin pie but not -- i don't like flavored coffees much. >> jane wells said as people are getting a taste of the real pumpkin, that many weren't quite as thrilled so that helps to dissuade further purchases in your big news of the day. thank you both for being here on "closing bell." susan ox and john naj.

that does it for us. "fast money" in moments. what is happening. >> yahoo is trading below $30 a share and so is it worth a trade right now. that is the question tonight. >> especially with the alibaba tax and business stuff. right over to you. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets and live from time square, i'm melissa lee. tonight volkswagen may be dominating the headlines but there is another german giant showing serious signs of strain and could have big implications for your portfolio. and casino stocks tumble. but it miets be time to double down on one and we'll tell you who later. but first the stock that could ruin the hottest trades of the year. nike set to report in less than 24 hours. a big component of the crowded consumer discretionary sector and that has been the best performing groups of stocks. so ifik