we'll talk about the jobs number. how the fed will react to that number and what he thinks. his book is coming out. >> perfect timing for a guest like him. fantastic. >> michelle, thanks for everything. >> a pleasure. >> like those shoes. >> lift them up. you can't see them. >> we will see you monday. right now time for "squawk on the street." good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, simon hobbs. cramer is off. 142,000 is the jobs number for september. a sizable miss. virtually no silver lining. negative revisions, earnings flat, even hours worked going south. the futures have reversed big time. the ten-year yield, below two. the market is increasingly betting on no fed rate hike this year.

those new worries for the fed on the labor front. september nonfarm payrolls weaker, rising by 142,000 in august. revised sharply lower to show 136,000 added. the rates stay steady at 5.1. average hourly earnings come in flat, but we were looking for something in the 0.2 0.3 range. maybe the most -- biggest disappointment of the year so far. >> coupled with the august revision lower. the 2015 average goes to 198,000 jobs created per month. that's a sharp slowdown. last year we were averaging 260,000 jobs. >> it's more than that. if you take the three month average, you're down 267. which begs the question, whether we like it or not, where are we in the business cycle? regardless of what fed is doing. the whole discussion as to whether rates this low and the fed balance sheet this big are able to stimulate the labor

market like they think it does. clearly there are diminishing returns here. >> the market reaction has not been good. dow futures down 161 points. the treasury note yield slipped below 2%. the first time that's happened since the end of august. >> interesting to see that move below. it's been flirting with the 2% level this week. a lot of tumult in the bond market. there the spread is key. bringing down borrowing costs never hurts for those looking to enter the capital markets. that's been the case for a long tim time. >> it is quite interesting, if you look at the news flow from companies, job cuts seem much more common over the last couple weeks. that seems to be the phase we're in. >> on conagra, walmart. >> caterpillar and hp. that was about 45,000. >> now reports of sprint. it keeps coming. also the dollar is getting

whacked. for more on jobs and this sharp market reaction, joining us is david kelly and scott brown. david, your rate hike, which you want so badly is slipping away further into 2016. >> it is. the reason i want a rate hike is i believe the first few will stimulate economic growth and help the market move higher. there one silver lining that might move the fed towards tightening, which is the labor force continues to decline. in fact, the number of people unemployed did fall in september. the unemployment rate almost hit 5.0. went from 5.11 to 5.05. >> you know this fed. you know they won't look at up with unemployment rate and decide it's time to hike. >> nor should we just look at the payroll report. all the bad news is concentrated in this. we have two more employment reports before the december meeting. i still think the labor market

is tightening. i firmly believe the economy would do better and the market would do better if the federal reserve would remove uncertainty and get going here. this may cause them to hesitate. that seems to be the way they operate. i don't think they should based on this report. >> scott, how do you explain the weakness in september and revised lower in august? >> well, this was a relatively disappointing report. i don't think it was a complete disaster. if you look at the numbers before seasonal adjustment, obviously you have the start of the school year, the end of the summer travel season. those are enormous forces. we added about 1.5 million education jobs, which is about the same as we did last year. we lost a lot more of the noneducation jobs than we do. last year we lost around 800,000. that was the same before the year before. we lost over 900,000 noneducation jobs in september. that likely reflects a strong hiring early in the late spring and summer.

a lot of college kids getting summer jobs. very strong travel season with low gasoline prices. it's natural to see maybe a larger pull back seasonally if you have stronger seasonal hiring. if you look at private sector jobs, it's, you know, a slowdown in july -- august and september. that pace is still roughly in line with population growth. i don't think this is a horrible report. the hourly average earnings numbers bounce back. we know there had been a lackluster trend. maybe the fed does delay a bit longer. >> it may not be horrible, but it is lackluster, which comes back to the question i put at the beginning, where are we in the business cycle? the assumption had been because we had such tepid growth we could carry on growing with tepid growth because the fed would not raise rates dramatically and this equity market could rise. does this suggest we may be tip nothing a slowdown and maybe

recession over the next 18 months given what the rest of the world is doing? >> no, the slowdown in the rest of the world is about emerging markets, and it's accompanied by a big fall in commodity prices. that's spurring consumer spending. yes, you have over 18 million light vehicle sales, strongest number since 2005. we think the real consumer spending will be up 3.5% in the third quarter following 3.5% in the second quarter. >> so the consumer will save us? >> there's a lot of consumer demand. it will never boom. we had 73,000 growth in the labor force over the last year. that's not enough. this jobs number was disappointin disappointing. >> it also follows some consumer confidence surveys where we had jobs plentiful and eight-year highs. how does that square with this? that's crazy. >> this is correct. the unemployment rate is low. it's almost 5%. the problem is we're not growing

the labor supply, so if you don't have enough workers, you can't hire them. >> policy has done all it can. monetary policy has done all it can on the labor market. it's diminishing returns from here. >> the milk of monetary ease turned sour a long time ago. they should raise rates now to get us back to a normal level. try to normalize the economy. this expansion has room to run for another year. >> you don't think today's number adds credence to the negative dot we heard about in the presser? >> if you understand how monetary policy affects the economy from very low rates you will not stimulate the economy through more quantitative easing. it has not worked in japan for 20 years. >> that's the argument. japan is laying the template for everything we do. >> but if the medicine doesn't work, don't keep doubling the dose. >> no is it working in europe. for the asset markets or for unemployment. and underlying inflation is turning down. >> the key issue is confidence and certainty. if the federal reserve lays out a path of gradually rising interest rates, the u.s. economy

will do better and the job numbers will improve. >> scott, you know, when the number disappoints a lot of people point to rerevisions. they say the revisions are catching up with the true picture of the labor market. eight consecutive downward revisions. maybe that's the biggest indictment of this data at all. >> the numbers are reported accurate to 105,000 each month, which is a huge margin of error. so the figures are revised. there's a benchmark revision that will be coming up in february. we already have an initial estimate of that. that's not huge. these numbers do bounce around. you can look at the three-month average. that reduceses a lot of the month to month noise. i don't worry much about the job market. we're seeing a limited pace of job destruction. you get the announcements in the news about companies laying people off. when you add them up, that's

trending low. the key over the last year has been the hiring coming from small and medium sized firms. that's what we need to watch closely. they may be affected by the negative noise you're hearing. the domestic economy is in really good shape. consumers are feeling better. you had good job growth over the last year. the drop in gasoline prices adds to purchasing power. yes. the weakness abroad, the stronger dollar will hurt a lot of companies. it's going to have a big hit to u.s. exports. that may be a drag on gdp growth, lower inventory growth that i be a drag on gdp growth. but the domestic economy is still doing very well. i don't worry much about this employment report. >> dow futures down 212 points. scott, i'm getting more hate mail than usual and twitter attacks. i know where david kelly would stand on this. he would disagree with me. i think janet yellen is vi vindicated by this number. if they raised rates in

september, how would this number have looked? wouldn't it have looked like a policy mistake? >> it would have looked bad. it's ironic, i think the fed has tried to communicate things well. the markets don't always hear what the fed has to say. clearly if the fed is looking down the line, you know, monetary policy affects the economy with a lag of about 12 months, 18 months. there's a lot less slack than there was in the labor market. a year from now there will be less slack. the fed doesn't have to be at neutral, but it ought to be closer than it is now. so, there's no need to hit the brakes. they do have to consider taking the foot off the gas pedal. >> pile on, david. >> i think the notion of monetary stimulus and zero interest rates is wrong. the thing is when you raise rates, nobody will stop buying houses if we raise mortgage rates. that's not a constraint on them. but you will raise interest income. a lot of people would spend more interest income if they could get it. >> i think a lot of investors agree with you.

sharp negative reaction to stocks on this number. david kelly and scott brown, thank you both. >> thank you. now that the jobs number is out, this week, we asked you to tweet your predictions. 9 lucky winner will receive a cnbc frame autographed by us. we're combing through the entries to find out who was right and right first. we'll announce that winner later in the show. first reaction from the white house on the numbers. jason fuhrman will join us after the opening bell. jack lew says the u.s. will hit its legal debt limit around november 5, in five weeks time in a letter lew says the federal government would likely have less than $30 billion on hand to pay its bills at that point. the secretary says i respectfully urge congress to take action as soon as possible and raise the debt limit. i'm sure the treasury secretary is a decent and honest man but

there will be a question here as to whether that's political maneuvering. november 5th puts the debt limit deadline just after you re-elected the speaker of the house. and whoever it is will have this massive backlash if boehner has not done a deal from his own right wing to not raise the debt limit and put the party, the opposition party in turmoil. >> 30 billion in cash they see on november 5. there are days the government spends double that on a single day. thin levels of cash. what strikes me, it's ban long time since we had a fiscal battle. we had a few years of relative calm. but we have a few deadlines coming up. october 29th, authorization for the spending on the highway trust fund. and this government is only funded until december 11th because of that stop gap measure passed this week. buckle up. when we come back, we have jason furman on the jobs numbers. futures were up 109 on the dow, now down almost 200 as we look

for some market weakness when the opening bell rings in about 17 minutes.

. 15 minutes to the opening bell on wall street. the picture does not look

pretty. negative reaction to that weaker than expected jobs report that we got for september. dow futures down 215. s&p down 27. nasdaq down 59. 142,000 jobs created in the month of september. economists looking for a number that was above 200,000 and a lot of other weak numbers. >> the danger here, this is where there may be opportunity, the markets are moving to factor in greater weakness than exists. the jury is out on where we are with china. this is one jobs number, some revisions down, that may pressure the market. if you look at the industry, hotel chains are at 52 week lows, despite the fact that the commentary from executives is that business is sound and it will be for two, three years. the market there is moving ahead of where arguably the fundamentals may be in the market. i would question on whether overall we will be doing that today. >> we wanted a weaker dollar, we

will get it, at least today. a lot of fed speak as well. williams has spoken about how he saw no acceleration in global risk. and that a lift off was still possible in october. bullard speaks, then fisher at noon. that's the clarity we'll be looking for today in the middle of the session. >> we'll monitor the tone. he has prepared remarks. i wonder if he'll take questions or revise them at all. if he's going to reassure people, he has to say there's no rate rise coming. that's not what fisher does. he tells people that it will be data dependent and one could be on the way. if you're going to be reassuring, don't raise rates and tell people you won't raise rates. that will reassure the market. >> i think they have a communication problem on their hands. i was in d.c. and the imf talking to world leaders, they

don't see anything. they are backing it up saying the data in the u.s. is not showing it. >> my question would be -- whether janet yellen has the correct character in the job because i wonder if you had a more bombastic leader of the fed who could generate more confidence that we might be in a different situation rather than this data dependent consensus view she brings to the table, wearing her heart on the sleeve. if you look back at volcker, it was a much stronger performance. i wonder if that would change where we are. we are where we are and janet yellen has the job. when we come back, the take on the markets from mark cashin. we'll look at futures. this is the fourth straight disappointment on nfp and the sixth in seventh months.

here's a look at futures, decidedly negative after a good premarket. investors were not counting on the miss we got on jobs. 142, well below the 200 expected. let's bring in art cashin. i doubt you were surprised. >> not much. a couple of things. if you look at the trim tabs data, it hinted it would be a lower number. if you looked at the six-month moving average over the last year, it's been decelerating. people have overestimated what the payrolls will be time and time again.

i think i've -- i've been saying i didn't think the fed will raise rates this year. i still don't think they will. >> i wonder about the market reaction. there are those who believed if they told you it would be this low a number that would state fed's hand and we might get a positive reaction because rates are not going up. >> i think the concern is -- this ambivalent feeling. why isn't the fed moving? is the economy much weaker than we fear? when they saw this, they were like it does look weaker than we fear. if you throw in with it the layoffs announced over the last month and a half, there's a palpable feel that things are slowing down. >> art, when she did that huge news conference, when she was talking about weakness t wasn't labor market weakness. wasn't the basic message we're kind of there with the labor markets, i'm worried about what mark markets will do and what china

will do. this is the other half now that they were not talking about. >> correct. this is the part they thought was unsettsettled and now it's unsettled. >> the dollar almost 1% lower than the euro and the japanese yen. so this tells you the fed is pushing out when they'll hike interest rates. does it mean this is all we'll be talking about for the next year again and not paying attention to corporate stories, economic data? >> i think if the data continues on this level, you won't be talking about a fed hike. it won't be a debate. it will be an accomplished fact. we'll wait and see. i'm interested to see the tone that fisher takes. you know, he's tried to keep this hope alive that we would have it. we could have it. >> could it be, just for the sake of argument, that the fed has confused everybody to the extent that we're overreacting on the markets to weakness that

is not as bad as we think, be it in china or this economy and longer term this is a buying opportunity? they confuse the narrative so much, that now actually is the time to buy. it's not as serious as you might think. >> you're saying that transparent fed has been misleading in what they're doing? >> we have albertson's pricing. putting some shares out to be offered. first data. there's a report out today, china is considering resuming ipos over there. would you expect a run here before the market truly closes its doors? >> i think people see the opportunity and try to rush in. it is a fact of human nature, when you see an opening closing, instead of walking around it, people run between the two cars coming together. the temptation is to constantly grab an opportunity before you miss it. >> we'll see you later today. >> okay. opening bell and white house economic adviser jason furman on

the jobs number after the break. (vo) rush hour around here

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you're watching cnbc's "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world, the opening bell in just about two minutes or so as we wrap up this week, second trading session of october with negative news as the jobs number is a miss at 142,000. unemployment is steady at 5.1. we were not expecting august to be revised down. it's almost always revised higher. we were looking for something resembling earnings, didn't happen. even the work week, which we have come to take for granted was lower. amazing. >> the only thing i would add is the labor force participation rate ticked lower. icing on the cake there. you mentioned stocks. this is the third down week for the dow and s&p 500. interestingly nasdaq had the worst week of the bunch so far. we'll see how it shakes out on friday. biotech was a focus. some wondering whether it bottomed earlier in the week

when we saw that sharp selloff and then a mini rebound. >> yeah. you have such pain in the hedge funds sector, 3 trillion in assets. that number has gone down a bit. the performance numbers i've been seeing for september have been from bad to worse for most of those hedge funds. the dollar may be a bright spot here. in terms of its weakness. and what that will mean for those who are worried about earnings from multinationals. >> takes some time. we're going into earnings next week. >> you will not see it reflected in the earnings reported for the quarter that passed. however to the extent that people are trying to understand what kind of multiple to be on -- >> jim cramer would point that out. >> inaction from the fed forces other banks to go deeper. it force the ecb into qe. >> will be a busy session.

as we said earlier, stan fisher will speak at noon. might address some of the data today. we're watching hurricane joaquin, which thankfully seems to be trending to the east. but the carolinas and the outer banks will be seeing record rainfall over the next 72 hours. there's the opening bell. a look at the s&p at the bottom of your screen. at the big board, performance food group company celebrating their ipo. over at the nasdaq, novacare celebrating its initial public offerin offering. >> one stock that i will be watching here at the open is dunkin after it had its worst day after going public. dunkin' donuts putting out a disappointing growth outlook in terms of sales and profits. a ton of research notes on this stock. the sell ooff was said to be overdone, but a lot of analysts

are taking down their target. a lot of competition in the breakfast space, from starbucks and taco bell. the guidance over the next five years expected at 2% to 4%, mid to high single digits. that was lower than originally forecast. >> both the sales are down and traffic is down. that's partly because of management, arguably overly aggressive price increases in addition to the canceling of promotional activity as they admitted on the call. >> and 100 franchises will be closing at speedway gas stations. >> the upgrade is based on the idea that they should trade at a premium it others in the space. they're calling it outperform from beyond perform. sort of a bullish buy. >> yeah. >> the market down 161 points. clearly a concern about where we're going with nonfarm

payrolls. we had a chart made up of the three month moving averages. thin indicates the concerns in the market. each time you get the payroll that is lower than the month before you take down the three month average. that's why i question where we are in the business cycle. december we were having a three month average growth and job activity, over 300,000. we have come down to almost half that at 167,000. a lot of that was due to the harsh winter. you see the way gradually that pulls us down. we came out, going through the summer. this dip down now is a major concern, and one reason why we think the fed won't raise rates, but the market still falls. if you're not watching fed funds futures, you might be watching the leaders on the s&p which are almost entirely utility related. investors will look for yield in environment where they clearly expect interest rates to stay low. everything from southern, con

ed, duke energy. nordstrom is getting a move. they have a special dividend of 4.85 a share and a $1 billion buyback. we are seeing more of these companies pay attention to buybacks, in the case of hp raising additional debt. that macco inside with a work force reduction. >> we already saw the significant reductions hp expects. they're about a month away from the official split of that company. the ept prizes side we were referring to when we talk about as many as 30,000 job cuts. we heard from caterpillar dealing with significant increase in commodity prices. we'll be watching. again, the dollar may -- if this continues, it may have a positive impact on same multinationals.

hp, over 65% of revenues come from overseas. it's been -- people worry about margin force that company. >> can i point out the banks. bank of america down 3%. morgan stanley down 3.5%. a lot of the rally in the banks was based on the idea that interest rates would rise and the margin banks would have would be substantially higher. if you're pushing back those rises, you are seriously impacting the profitability of the banks. >> the journal says q3 earnings are now suspect. even if we were looking at a rate rise in october and september, the idea of one and done was already done. >> where are we in the business cycle? does this indicate that the economy will slow and arguably go into contraction next year? that's the question. it's not proven by data. >> what would be interesting is if services started to follow. >> services have been strong.

consumer has been strong. exports are only 12% of our economy. 88% of our economy has been doing relatively well. we'll see what we get. >> that's not what the regional survey data is indicating. >> on manufacturing. >> it's disproportionate to the effect we thought we would have from exports. even china. china would be a marginal affect. that's not what you're beginning to see. >> one would counter with autos yesterday, which were 18 million cars. that's a mind blowing number. >> that's also structural because you have an old fleet. people didn't replace their cars -- >> i don't care if it's because people like yellow cars all of a sudden, they are buying cars. >> that's not what generally could boost gdp across the board. >> i think this is a good taste of the debate now. certainly the pessimists are getting ammunition today with this jobs report which was

unambiguously weak. >> you know who would help this discussion? jason furman. let's get to jason furman. >> i have a feeling. >> from the labor department. >> i don't think he'll be pessimistic. >> jason, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> we've been hunting for a silver lining in this report. do you see one? >> there's no doubt that the events happening in the rest of the world are affecting the u.s. economy. we're still adding jobs. we're still on our streak. and the broadest measure of unemployment, u6 went down 0.3 in september. it's been falling at a much faster pace than the official unemployment rate. so i think, you know, broadly we're happy to see the unemployment rate where it is. but the events in the rest of the world matter for us in the united states. >> do you believe the events in the rest of the world are impacting these domestic jobs surveys? >> yes, i think they are. we saw the trade numbers for

august and our goods exports fell to the rest of the world. that's what happens when places like china are growing more slowly. that affected our equity markets. that affects the purchasing power of consumers. i don't want to overstate it. we're 140,000 jobs, more than what we need to break even with the unemployment rate. the broader measures came down. but, you know, we need to be acting here in the united states to make sure that weakness from abroad doesn't affect us anymore. >> jason, we've been eluding to different pockets of the economy are giving different signals and messages, showing different signs of strength. how will you characterize the overall economy, including jobs, including inflation, including the weakness in manufacturing now versus where we were at this time last year? >> if you look at the last year, we've had very strong domestic momentum. we've added a lot of jobs in the

last year. the unemployment rate has come down at a relatively fast pace over the last year. so, you know, i feel good about overall the direction that we're going in. i would feel better if i didn't think the sequester was coming back. if i didn't think that, you know -- if i thought congress would deal with transportation, i would feel better. i would feel better if i thought they would reauthorize xm. there's a number of unfinished pieces of business that congress needs to do that matter to us. >> people will look at the treasury secretary's announcement that we'll run out of money on november 5th, in five weeks time, much earlier than expected. they will be suspicious that's party politicking because the speaker's election will take place a week before. clearly whoever is elected as speaker will have huge pressure from within his own party not to let the debt limit pass. is it party politicking?

>> absolutely not. the treasury department gets new information, that letter reflected new information, that letter was completely consistent with what they said before, which was we would have a bit of time after october 30th, receipts in september were a little lower than expected. and as a result the date is november 5th. you'll see the daily cash statements. you'll get to follow that yourself. there's no reason congress should not act to raise the debt limit to pay for the bills that we as a country have already incurred. >> jason, is the economy slowing? >> we have strong domestic momentum here in the united states. the events in the rest of the world did affect us over the summer in august, in september. but there's no reason, you know, we can't keep pushing forward if we take some of those steps i was talking about like receiving the sequester. >> in your opinion, does the fed

have a path to ease additionally from here? what would that look like? would the white house be in favor of it? >> my opinion, the fed will make its own decisions independently of me. >> that is going out on a limb, jason. that's fantastic. >> jason, you come on every month and talk about infrastructure spending, yet it's not going to happen. >> you know -- >> you can keep saying it on that lawn every month with your hair blowing around, but it's not going to happen. >> you know, i'd love to come out here one month and not have to talk about it. when congress keeps extending it two months at a time, three months at a time, this used to be done five years at a time. if congress passes a five-year bill, i promise i won't come back and repeat myself on the topic. >> there's an important argument going on around the world that policymakers have failed people and they left the growth and jobs to the central banks who are increasingly distended in

the actions they have to take. when we come into economic trouble they will presumably be the first to move again with extraordinary measures that we never experienced before because the politicians don't act, and they don't do what they're supposed to do on the fiscal side of things. would you accept some responsibility as a group of people for the position we find ourselves and the position the financial markets find themselves in? >> i certainly think we need to do our part. we put out a budget the beginning of the year. it shows how we could end the sequester do it in a balanced way, and pay for it. that's not a radical idea. that's the same idea that paul ryan and patty murray agreed on nearly two years ago. we put on a commonsense idea on that. to mention it again -- i apologize for this, infrastructure. we put that out. that's been done over and over

again by presidents of both parties. the problem is we need congress to act on these ideas. i absolutely agree fiscal policy needs to be doing its part. >> jason, it's good to see you again. stay out of the rain. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> jason furman. dow is down 215 led by the banks. goldman and jpmorgan the worst performers. >> banks are on the down side. 4-1 declining to advancing stocks. almost everything is down 1.5%. let's look at the s&p 500. so much for bad news is good news. whatever happened to that idea? futures dropped 20 points as soon as that report came out. they're down now 25 points. essentially all the damage was done at 8:30 in the futures market. this had a worldwide effect. if you look at germany, even germany dropped more than 1%.

there's germany there. you can see clearly that notable drop. we were solidly in positive territory in europe, there it dropped immediately. the big question now is what's the trading community going to do? my feeling is they'll do what they've been doing the last few weeks, which is nothing. there was a dramatic reduction in exposures by active traders to the stock market in august and a good part of september. they took down their exposures. that's what led in the last few weeks to the markets drifting lower on what i call moderate volume and no bids in the market. you get normal selling pressure and the market drifts lower because nobody is interested in adding to any exposure. i think this report unfortunately is only going add to the unwillingness of traders to increase their exposures, which is already on the light side. that could mean if you get a sharp move up, it could happen quickly because people are underexposed. right now there's no reason to throw a lot of money at the stock market.

look at banks. correctly pointing out, everybody here, that the banks are on the weak side. particularly regional banks, like regent's financial and u.s. bancorp and keycorp are weak because of the net margin concerns. financials are leading to the down side but industrials and even health care, which has been a huge concern the last few weeks, are notably down today. it's a bad time to announce big ipos, but that's what happened. two big ones were announced. terms for them. first data announced 160 million shares, 18 to 20. the big electronic payment processing company. there was some confusion about when they might go public. my understanding is it will be priced sense october 14th for trading on the 15th. that's a week and a half from now. albertson's, also announcing terms, 65 million shares, 23 to

26. these are very rleveraged companies, trying to go public and it's a tough time do that the ipo etf down 20% in the month -- in the quarter ending in september. so it's a tough time for ipos. tough time go into the market. david, right now down 211 points in the dow. >> thank you very much. i will hit two stocks that are up. starting off with sprint. the "wall street journal" reported on an internal memo indicating cost cutting to come at the telecom provider. which will potentially include, of course, the loss of jobs. sprint confirming to us that, in fact, the number, 2 billion to 2.5 billion of costs looking to be saved. job cuts likely. they can't say how many. they are early in the process in terms of where the cuts will come from. they are streamlining processes and making the network better.

cost cutting from sprint is important. to put it in some perspective for you, that number itself, 2 billion to 2.5 billion cost reduction, a company with about 6. 6.25, if it hits the full number that would represent a third of the company's full operating costs. why does sprint need do this? the company is losing money while it tries to expand subscrib subscriber roles. it set up a financing vehicle for handsets. the low band auction that takes place in 2016 it will not take part in. now the cost cutting. the debt maturities alone, buy time. buy as much time as you can to get back. the cash burn rate is coming down, and will be benefited as a

result of this $2.5 billion in costs that they'll try to take out of the company. layoffs would seem to be a part of the discussion. 35,000 employees at the company. and then maybe you live to see another day. live to revisit a t-mobile deal. softbank continues to own 81%. it has not been a winner, though lately the stock has been up sharply. wanted to come back to another stock that's up. that's dish. we got the resolution to that argument with the fcc about them paying because they shouldn't have gotten the designated entity discounts. they chose to return the spectrum in question. pay a penalty price. that spectrum will go back to the fcc. it will be reaction. dish will pay the difference of whatever the new auction price

is we have not gotten anything on the bigger issue, are they in the process of doing a significant deal with their spectrum or to sell some of it or i should say to partner with perhaps a service provider or some unknown entity to help capitalize a spectrum co. this is all speculation, but sparked by the fact that they said we need two weeks to figure this out. charlie ergen had a number of conferences, but nothing. just the deal itself which is at least a slight positive. all right. let's get from stocks back to bonds. rick santelli joins us. rick? >> we can debate as to why we ended up here after all these years of what was deemed to be very, very accommodating policy. but the markets are very clear on the response to the lousy data. and if you look at a two-year, everybody is, let's show it from early july.

it's basically july -- since we closed anywhere near this 54, 55 basis point zone. it's not the winner. the maturity that had the biggest drop relative to yesterday's yield close -- the five-year note yield. right now as it sits, 1.22. down 15 basis points. if you look at a year to date of the fives, it's been since february since we've been here. as a matter of fact, since twos are behaving different because they're so close to fed funds, twos to tens flattened a bit. but the real trade is the steepening that's going on between fives and 30s. the 30s acting a lot like tens. it's at 153, the steepest since july. april 24th on tens, last time we were here, consider this. the dollar index was up about 15 before the number. now it's down 81 to 83.

we are down close to 1 cent net change from before the data to after the data. very significant. and if you look at the way the euro behaved against the dollar and then against the yen, both of those currencies are the weak links. >> dow down 234. the russell about seven points from its lows for the year. we're back in a moment. (cole) alright listen up. we all know that directv's better at this whole tv thing. so, to beat them, we're gonna get bigger. we're gonna merge with cableworld. (exec 1) cableworld? i can't stand those guys. (exec 2) they're the worst. (exec 3) they're totally incompetent. (exec 4) that company stinks and i mean they smell. i used to work there. i had to breathe through my mouth the whole time. (cole) shh, shh, shh, they're here. (newhart) this is gonna be fun, firing everyone. (vo) get rid of cable and switch to directv.

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♪ dow jones down 235 points. it's financials that are taking it on the chin in the wake of that shock employment report. wynn resorts is doing well. quoting a chinese government official that they will take measures to boost trade in makow. we're back after this. we've got trouble in tummy town.

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only one dow component in the green. the numbers winners in the s&p, seven in the green of the s&p 500. very negative. >> the dow down 223. pfizer is the only one in the green. it got an upgrade today from morgan stanley. a sea of red on that

disappointing jobs data. >> we'll talk about that and more when we come back. later this morning, we will talk about the jobs number. we will see if the rate hike may still be seen in december. you pay your car insurance

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good friday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla, with sara eisen, simon hobbs. markets are lower to the tune of about 220 on the dow. oil is not cooperating, negative. the ten-year below 2. >> the road map starts with an upset in the september jobs report. is a december rate hike now off the table? december off the table. we'll talk to about that this hour. >> and hurricane joaquin is a dangerous category 4. many states declaring a state of emergency.

and the winners and losers in the online ad space, which tech stocks yield the best returns for online advertisers. >> first rick santelli with factory orders to close out the week. >> absolutely. if you were disappointed in jobs, you'll be disappointed in the august read on factory orders. we were expecting a down number but we had an extra helping. down 1.7 following that downwardly revised 0.4 original that ended up 0.2% for last month. down 1.7 is the worst factory orders on a month over month basis since december of last year when it was minus 3.7. this makes the fourth negative factory orders of 2015. and maybe being an august number it was a precursor for what we saw in jobs. no matter how you slice it, many eyes are looking at the weakness in the dollar index and the big drop in yields. the five-year note, the biggest drop of all.

back to you. >> let's get to courtney reagan, has some news from retail giant walmart. >> good morning to you. walmart's doug mcmillan sending a memo to employees at the home office announcing 450 jobs will be cut at walmart headquarters. that is located in bentonville, arkansas. this is more of this cost-cutting program that we can presume walmart has been undertaking to make sure to get the profitability to a sustainable place for the future. sara? >> on a related note, back to the news of the morning. the september jobs report. with more on the disappointing number, let's bring in steve liesman. the question is what drove the weakness and what does the fed do about it. >> we'll look at that in a second, sara. good question. it's a weak report and it takes off the table the chance for a october rate hike, and that could be pushed into next year.

here's the thing. nearly every piece of the september payroll report missed expectations and disappointing the market. nonfarm payrolls, up 142. looking for 200. august july revisions, downward. looking for up. average hourly wages unchanged. the unemployment rate did come down for the wrong reasons p 350,000 left the work force. you had a decline in the separate household employment report. there was also a decline in the unemployed. labor force participation going the wrong way. at jeffries they say what i said, there is not anything good here. the data cannot make the fed more comfortable about a possible october liftoff. itg, they say it's not even worth talking about 2015 anymore. it's off the table. you don't need to say anything here. at bank of tokyo, the idea of the u.s. economy could power forward while the rest of the world is stalling out that idea

could be put in the garbage bin. this idea of fortress america is being challenged. here's where the jobs were and where they weren't. retail coming in strong, 24,000. construction doing well. big loss in mining. big loss in manufacturing and wholesale trade down 4,000. you had some hiring in the temporary help. just a word on fed communication, there's been a lot of complaints. let's go back and look. the data surprised on the weak side. the markets changed the outlook for fed policy. it's hard to understand what's not working here and what all the complaints are about. seems like the system is working. if there's a complaint t should be about the forecasting. those should be corrected at the fed and wall street forecasters and investors and maybe some senior correspondents at business news station. simon. >> i disagree entirely. >> i'm not surprised. >> the job of the fed is to inject confidence into the markets and inject confidence into the economy. the markets are losing confidence.

the economy is losing confidence. >> did you say it's the fed's job to inject confidence into the economy? >> correct. >> where is that job description from? >> the idea that they got this. they are the leaders of the economy and they will do what's necessary in order to boost confidence. confidence is what we're lacking. the federal receiserve could gi some. >> the federal reserve would say they're supposed to go for maximum employment and stable inflation. that's what they would say their job. >> maybe it's a third mandate, steve. you never know. >> for more on the jobs number and its impact on the markets, let's bring in the chief market strategist at oppenheimer and the chief economist at standard & poor's. is the economy slowing. >> we've seen a downshift in the jobs numbers. it's hard to see anything good

in those numbers. i would add to steve's assessment, one other area was strong, which was the health sector, probably because everybody got a headache from this bad news. we are seeing a slowdown. it's hard to ignore that. we have the dollar strengthening on manufacturers and exports. oil prices are weighing on that sector. i would want to say we are seeing other strength in the domestic economy. yesterday we saw construction numbers coming in rather strong. it was also confirmed by this reading. last thing is people are writing off a fed hike. i would like to bring in the late, great yogi berra, the game is not over until the game is over. >> beth, it's inevitable in the environment that people will blame what's happening internationally for weakness in the jobs market. could it be we have not just reached a stage in the business cycle at a time when we see mma at record levels that cos look at the businesses and say i don't have top line growth what do i do now? how do i boost profits moving

forward? let's restructure. that's the kind of daily news flow that we're getting, isn't it? >> it's hard to say we can't write off the august weak numbe numbe numbers, it got weaker. this comes after 18 months of robust job gains. could it be we're just taking a break? it could be. >> maybe we reached full employment. john, is it right to sell in this environment? >> i think it would be a big mistake. in the last six, six and a half years we have seen many times these mid cycle slowdowns. that mid cycle is wide here based on the recovery process in qe. so what we have to see -- we so have to say dollar cost average here. know what you own, why you own it and fasten seat belts. it does not mean a plane will crash but there's turbulence we'll be living with. >> separately the reaction has been big and broad to this number. the dollar is getting hit hard

now. eventually isn't that going to be good for u.s. economies that have been so battered by the strong dollar? >> sarah, we think so. when we look at it -- usually the dollar rises significantly in anticipation of the fed beginning to tighten. then once the fed gets there, it weakens. right now it's weakening on economic perception, i would say. but we would look at it here and say pretty much about where we should be. if anything, this certainly does vindicate janet yellen's decision not to raise rates. >> in fairness, she didn't have the data when she made that decision. it wasn't based on that why she didn't raise rates. >> she had a lot of regional manufacturing data, the effects of the strength of the dollar. >> inevitably -- i want to talk about gold. as the dollar weakens, gold and silver gets stronger. that's the knee jerk reaction.

there will be people who will feel the federal reserve is massively behind the curve. is gold a buy here? >> i don't think so. gold is a trade here. you can play it here. i wouldn't get too involved. i would stick with equities and face the cyclical rather than the defensive. >> beth, i interrupted you. forgive me. >> i want to bring it back to inflation. you talked about the weak economy, that's probably what drove the fed for not raising rates in september, partly so, but they focus on the weakness in the global markets and the volatility in the financial markets and the impact on already low inflation, that that could have near-term impact. >> john, watching these market moves. the ten-year treasury note about to break 1.90, heading south. you have to revisit your forecast for the equity market? >> i have to say in terms of time frame we would likely consider it, it's on the

consideration table. that said, we always remember 2011, a bottom put in about mid-october, and then a rise of over 30% from then to an interim top in april of 2012. >> john, one final question, has the way we've viewed monetary policy fundamentally changed? what happens today means presumably the ecb will double down on qe. markets are down. what happens today means there's no rate rises possibly this year into the first quarter. the market is down. do we view central banks fundamentally from an asset market perspective in a different way now? >> i think we have to consider it's all global today. it's tied to digitalization. at the same time you don't want to project too quickly. there are so many positives on a fundamental basis. >> thank you both for your analysis. when we come back, hurricane joaquin remains extremely dangerous, cat 4. we'll get a live report from

virginia, among the states declaring a state of emergency. later, goldman's chief economist, jan hatzius with his take on today's numbers. when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't.

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2.25%. the dollar sharply weaker. gold going the other direction. we'll keep an eye on that. carl? >> as internet companies race to build out tools and platforms to attract big ad dollars, which ones are leading the pack and which ones are falling behind? mark mahaney has a new survey to share with us. good morning. >> good morning. >> what did you find out? >> let's see. the google remains the king of the roi heap. when you ask advertisers how they would rank the ad platforms, going the is the number one site on the internet. number one platform. you find facebook, the incremental interest in buying ads on facebook, despite what is clear ad pricing inflation on facebook, it has not charged. marketers want to spent 64%

there. and they want to spend more and not less. the negative surprise was tri twitter where we are seeing a fall off in advertising. >> why the difference between the two? is it to the degree in which ad load is switching to video? >> that's part of it someone specific question had to do with the auto play video ads. this was only introduced by facebook a year ago. are seeing brand advertisers, think automotive, insurance, financial services, those advertisers are migrating to facebook. we saw strong interest in instagram as kind of an emerging advertising platform. about 72% of marketers said they would be interested in advertising on instagram. look for that to be a material growth driver for facebook. we asked advertisetors compare

the roi on facebook versus youtube video ads. roi was perceived to be higher on facebook than youtube. across the board the clear winner is facebook. >> the showdown between facebook and youtube is coming into sharp relief. on twitter, mark, it's been such a busy week of news. still awaiting for some announcement regarding a ceo. there has been a lot written about what people call product improvement. do you see that moving the needle on roi in the year ahead? >> well, most of the product improvement that we've been able to see has been on the user side, not so much on the advertiser side. the perceived roi of twitter advertising is still lower than that of google and facebook. in twitter's defense, those are high benchmarks to try to reach. there's a lot of wood that twitter needs to chop. i'm not talking about with users, but with advertisers.

the difficult or the real negative data point from this survey was when we asked twitter advertisers nine months ago do you plan to spend more with twitter? 54% said they would. now it's 35%. a real cliff down in edadvertis interest. that can be improved but a lot of work to be done. >> twitter up 2%, perhaps a bounce after yesterday's sharp plunge with it down 51% in the last 12 months. how do you tactically trade this? when does it become cheap? you have to wait for the ceo announcement? >> i'm not sure it's ever going to be cheap. whether it's less expensive and it's an interesting point to look at. we're waiting for a couple of catalysts. we're waiting to see whether this project lightning announcement cure ra announceme announcement curated twitter feeds. something that makes it easier,

more intuitive for people to use that could take three, six months to play out. it would be nice to get some clarification on the ceo decision. however, i'll go on record. i think this dual ceo track, the ceo of two companies. it's possible. but, geez, that's a tough bet to make. it's hard to get behind that. >> you don't rate square but it's not ipo'd and part of your coverage universe. if there was a road show to start, and one of the key guys within that was split with another company, presumably that would sell at a discount. that deal would be discounted because you have a part-time ceo at the center of that business, correct? >> simon, i won't comment at all on square. i'll stick with the basic point that twitter itself -- there's a lot of work that needs to be done to turn the company around. it's hard to see somebody who is not fully engaged with the company, that's not their primary business, it's hard to see why that is not a handicap.

doesn't change the investment thesis, but the news that they have a dual ceo, if that's the case, that's not a reason to buy the stock. probably at the margin is a reason to be more cautious. >> yeah. mark, back to the overall survey, it confirms something that investors already know. is there anything that you determined that makes you think google or facebook are mispriced because they have been strong and twitter has been weak. >> yeah. good point. i think at the margins, when we do the surveys, it's rare we see in any one survey seismic shifts. it's more trends overtime. facebook reminds me so much of google back in 2005 and 2006 when there were more advertisers, spending more dollars with them. they had so much momentum. that's where facebook is now. the advantage of facebook is that they are rolling out new green field revenue opportunities. instagram is a lay up for them in terms of revenue growth.

we're sensing that from advertisers. we thought about that from users, but the evidence is stronger that advertisers feel the same way. facebook has to be a buy. it is. it's one of our top buys. >> certainly reflected in the shares. thank you very much, mark. mark mahaney from rbc. flooding expected in parts of the east coast as hurricane joaquin makes its way north. mike sidell is in virginia beach today where they are expecting rain. mike? >> good morning. fortunately joaquin will stay well away from the eastern seaboard, but this is what we're dealing with. not from joaquin, big high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south, we have this gradient wind. the beaches from jersey shore, maryland, delaware down to virginia beach through the carolinas are getting battered again. last week, we were out here, five days of this. we're on day number two, this will last through sunday and monday because we will get some wave action from joaquin later

in the weekend. there goes another wave up. it's chomping away at this beach this is falling into the atlantic. they have about 12, 15 feet. the homeowners are worried they'll lose their whole dune this afternoon. high tide in about an hour. each high tide through sunday night and into monday is going to be problematic with either minor -- major or severe beach erosion, coastal flooding, too. the other offshoot is the inland areas could see up to a foot of rain. we have flood watches from here through most of south and north carolina. some spots could see a foot of rain. get a load of this. it goes to show you, you don't need a tropical storm or a hurricane to get hammered out here on the beach. these winds are only gusting to about 40 miles per hour. that will limit any kind of structure damage up and down the coast. we'll be here all weekend, carl, trying to deal with the saltwater covering everything. back to you.

>> mike, stay safe out there. already windy. >> tie yourself down. >> he has a cameraman, too sometimes we forget, there's a guy shooting him also. >> yes. >> one day he'll blow out of the shot. >> a new way of looking at college rankings based on graduates earnings. we'll talk about that in a few. awe believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive. it's active. that's the power of active management.

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on this jobs friday, we're looking at one job with a steady future no matter how the economic winds blow. mary thompson has more from sweetwater, texas. >> some people refer to sweetwater as the wind turbine capital of the united states. it's home of nolan county boosts over 3,300 wind turbines including the 161 you see behind me at turkey track wind farm. they generate about 10% of texas' electricity.

long reliant on the federal subsidies, the wind industry is viable thanks to the fact that cost of generating electricity from wind has dropped 50% over the last five years. as more turbines go up, so does demand for the technicians to install, repair and maintain them. >> when our students graduate, i would say about 98% of them are in place. >> heath ince runs the wind energy technical school, graduates leave with schools that the industry needs. >> we start off with them, the basic introduction to wind energy and we talk about hydraulics. teach them hydraulic schematics, teach them industrial automation. >> wind generated electricity accounts for just under 5% of the country's total now it's

seen to double by 2020. the bureau of labor statistics sees the market for wind technicians to grow by 24% by 2022. the starting salaries for wind technicians is over $45,000 a year according to the bls. here in texas, which is the leader in wind energy, because there's greater competition for those workers, starting salaries are in excess of $50,000. carl, back to. >> mary thompson in sweetwater, beautiful live shot. thanks. when we come back, he sees the fed raising rates in december. will he change his tune after that jobs number this morning? jan hatzius is with us after the break.

hello, i'm sue herera, here is your news update. authorities are trying to figure out why 26-year-old chris harper mercer opened fire at an oregon community college yesterday. killing nine and wounding several others. members of the town gathered last night for a candlelight vigil. president obama expressed outrage saying the u.s. has "grown numb to mass shootings." 11 people died today when a u.s. military plane crashed in eastern afghanistan. the air force is investigating

the cause but said the crash does not appear to be the result of enemy fire. the "l.a. times" reporting local prosecutors are reviewing whether to charge bill cosby in connection with an alleged sexual assault. the case involves an accident from 2008 at the playboy mansion. 15 million t-mobile customers are finding out that information has been stolen by hackers. the stolen data includes social security numbers and other information. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you, sara. >> sue herera, thank you very much. the dow is down 214 points. today's job disappointment could it delay the first interest rate hike until 16? joining us now is jan hatzius. we've been waiting to hear from you. do we delay until 2016 or are you sticking with your december call?

>> we think it's a close call. we have not made a change, but it was already a close call. we basically said it was narrow path to december. at the moment, when you look at inflation, you look at employment, luke at financial conditions, we're off that path. there's still quite a lot of time between now and december. so, our expectation is that we'll get back on to the path and certainly what we've heard from fed officials has been reasonably resounding. it's a close call. >> everything you pointed to, you mentioned some of that, the economic data has turned worse. inflation data is lower. financial conditions okay, i guess there's some stabilization in china. this jobs report. what do you think the discussion inside the fed will be about this? >> the discussion will be to what extent is this new information that we're now growing employment closer to

100,000 than 200,000. at the moment my guess would be that they're still not ready to reach that conclusion. but, you know, it's now a genuine discussion. previously you were running at around 200,000, 225,000. there was an upward revision expected. the downward revision is something that will get them discussing maybe we're seeing something more significant. whether it's the revisions or the rolling averages coming in, that would resolve that discussion, as you put it? 100 versus 200? what's left to discuss? >> two more employment reports before december. so we do get a lot more information. if you look at the economic numbers, there's been some clear weakness outside of employment. some clear weakness in the manufacturing sector. very obvious. other things have generally held up well.

you know, auto sales were good. generally the retail environment seems okay. the conference numbers have not been bad after the initial disappointment in michigan. i think it's still certainly a discussion that will be two-sided. and i think at the moment they want to wait for more information. >> i think, jan, you should do a victory lap. you were the first major house to break from the pack and to suggest that we would get a rate rise towards the end of the year. you were the fulcrum of the conversation about the fed delaying into next year. congratulations on that work that you did, which at the time was controversial for a number of people. the reasoning has changed, though, over time as to why we would delay the rate hikes from where you initially were. correct? >> when we made the change -- thank you, by the way. when we made the change it was on the heels of the june meeting, and it was basically because janet yellen seemed to have changed her mission from september to december that was our interpretation.

>> listening to the fed closely. >> at that time it was listening to the fed. our view has been, i would say for some time, going back further than june, that there's a strong case for delaying into 2016. so, if we had to submit a dot or a path for optimum policy, we would have said 2016. the reason for making that change was communication. at the moment there's a pretty big contrast. you look at what the fed is saying now, now they are sending a strong message for december. the question is whether the new information is going to change that. >> we will see what fisher says, vice chairman of the fed at noon when he speaks. one more question. it's obvious to say foreign factors, it's the dollar, it's imports/exports. could it be a cycle, ceo and board mentality, they don't want to invest physically in the business, they would rather buy back their own stock. how do you grow margins?

let's restructure all over again. a lot of these announcements on job losses seem to be in that vain. >> the concern is maybe that the slowdown started with external drag. the worry is always going to be how much of that spills over into domestic activity, consumption, investment, you know, ceo decisions. the argument that we are seeing spillover effects has gotten stronger. not yet conclusive. >> one of our viewers wrote that october is still on the table. october 2017, of which i imagine you think is going too far. >> that seems extreme, yes. >> i want to ask jan about credibility. did the fed have a credibility problem? the fact they come out and say we want to raise rates, yet they can never do it? even the doves -- we heard this from charlie evans earlier this week say we have a credibility problem because we may raise rates not meeting the inflation

target. some are attributing the market losses to the fact that the credibility factor is up in the air. >> there's been a lot of discussion around the communication. you know, i think that's a legitimate discussion. i think that they are responding to new information. i would want to make that point. they are responding to new information about a weaker economy, low inflation than what they had expected. that's also not great to get it wrong on inflation time and time again. >> there is a missing element here, the animal spirits and the economy to drive it forward. nobody is invigorating that. arguably the fed could inject confidence towards that to say we got this. >> i'm more september cal on that. by talking more positively that you will generate a large knockdown effect in the economy. it's better to say how it is or how you think it is.

and be honest with what you're seeing. i think the cheerleading for policymakers is a high-risk strategy. yes, maybe you'll get a benefit in the short-term if it turns out you're wrong that undercuts your credible. i would be more worried about that. >> sticking to december for now. we'll keep an eye on your forecast. thank you. jan hatzius. we have our school pride, but which colleges have the biggest bang for their buck? jim stewart of the new york someti times breaks down schools by expected salaries next. ♪ ♪ ♪

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today's jobs report puts the focus on college graduates and earnings. that's the focus of jim stewart's new column. joining us is "new york times" columnist jim stewart himself. what is the takeaway? is the takeaway we have to go to some college we never heard of to make more than $100,000 a year? >> well, there's some surprising results when you look at the earnings data. the new college score card from the federal government put this back in the spotlight. for the first time we're getting a lot of data about what graduates make after they get out of college. that is a legitimate consider when you invest so much money in it. when you look at these rankings, they tend to show you a correlation and not a causation. and brookings institution has done a great study which tries to get beneath that to see what value added does a college bring to the table? the results are surprising.

there are some, some overlap. harvard does well. but a lot of lesser known schools that do a much better job of enhancing graduates earnings potential rather than simply having no effect. >> so the bottom line, i was referring to mcphs university, graduates earn 116,400 on average a year. not bad. >> that's really good. that's from the college score card. that's the number one school in the country on the college score card. >> where is it? >> a pharmacy school. >> it's a health sciences school. i had never heard of it. it's not even ranked in the u.s. news survey at all it is narrowly focused. a lot of these schools are. they have a narrow focus on high paying jobs. if that's not your only goal -- for most people making the most amount of money is not the only goal going to college. i asked brookings to do a specialist that factored out what the major is.

if you're an engineering major at m.i.t. you will do well. they came up with a value added list no matter the major. history, art, english. the liberal arts college, they jump up the rankings. colgate was the anybody one ranked school on that list. that confirms what people have suspected. in the smaller schools with a lot of attention, hands-on attention from faculty it contributes to future earnings power. >> do you think -- we're seeing examples of schools cutting tuition, right? but then cutting all the complicated loopholes they have in place now. is transparency coming into tuition or not? >> slowly but surely. it's a bit like the tax code. the sticker price on these schools is essentially meaningless. i tell this to parents and students all the time. ignore the sticker price. look at what people are paying, what you would be paying. but one interesting thing these studies show is if you're a --

if you have high s.a.t. scores and high grades you will do well -- just as well at a lesser known but reputable four-year college than you will at ivy league. so you may want to consider where you get the best deal. >> do you think this is sustainable over time in the world in which we live where arguably we should all become programmers? codemakers? isn't that where the real money lies? >> well, we saw the unemployment numbers. since the recession there's been a huge national interest in jobs and employment. every parent i talk to doesn't want their kids coming home to live with them. they want them to get jobs. is that going to change? is the unemployment -- probably. the pendulums swing. the logic of a lot of these rankings is everybody would be going and majoring in software engineering. that's an absurd result.

we don't want a world like that. >> we could be a nation of programmers, coders. >> and nothing else. >> and have immigrants to do the other work. >> we need teachers, artists. obviously at some point if the pendulum went too far, the salaries for these people go down. >> you can never have enough social media we'll be fine. >> the bottom line is forget all the rankings. no one ranking is going to tell you where to go. you have to bore down, look at the right school for you, look at the value added. look at the programs available to you and pick a school right for you. >> i was going to ask if you and brooking were going after the u.s. news and world report. which is still the gold standard here is peculiar. it doesn't look at earnings at all. it completely ignores that. they are considering changing that. i think they will face some pressure to bring that into the mix. >> next step is looking at the cost versus the earnings. >> the score card does that to some extent. you can compare costs to

earnings. has ratio is interesting. >> jim stewart, thank you very much for joining us. check that out in the "new york times." >> investors in glenncorp not having a good year or good week. we'll be live from london with more on that firsthand. also ahead, did you nail the number? the winner is coming up on cnbc. before we go to the break, we have cut our losses substantially. now down 151 on the dow. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

an awful week for glencore. the company slammed as they worry about its debt. it lost basically one-third of its value on monday in a single session. kate kelly is in london with more. kate, what have you got? >> i'm standing here in front of glencore's london office. they have a large arm focussing on energy. they've taken a beating, and even this morning they've been seesawing and up on headlines about a possible sale -- of a partial sale of one of their units to sovereign wealth funds, but also in the red for periods of today. the deal which i speak is part of their overall debt reduction

plan. what they would like to see happen is sell a 20% to 30% piece of their agricultural unit ideally to one or more sovereign wealth funds and reportedly we have -- they have interest, rather, so far from singapore, china, saudi arabia, and a canadian pension fund. it would appear that there are a good number of buyers that are taking a serious look. that's a deal that could be valued in the low billions of dollars and probably unlikely to get done until the first quarter of the new year. other things they're doing to get the debt down from $30 billion in net debt from the middle half of this year to the end of the year to $24 billion, include a sale of their metal streaming business, which would be a billion, maybe a billion quarter dollar deal, and they're hoping to announce that as soon as october. they have a directors meeting a week from today, and they'll probably be talking about that more along with their production report, which is coming up. a lot of issues, though, with the stock remain. a lot of concerns about liquidity despite attempts by the company to reassure both credit investors and their own employees that they're in solid

shape. they said they don't have to access the public debt markets again until 2017. they don't have a lot of short-term financing. i think one of the issues, simon and sarah, is that it's become a very popular short target. there are a couple of hedge funds. the lance down partners and they are known to be short. it's also a proxy for bearishness on mining in general. >> now let's get to rick santelli and -- >> equities moving down, and the dollar moving down. we could debate who that is good for, who been dpits, and who doesn't. in the end look at this gdp chart. this goes back to 2009. i talked to peter bookfar, friend of cnbc. he gave me an interesting stat. you can see it on this chart after we moved out from the 2009 levels. from the first quarter of 2010

to the second quarter of 20 -- i'm sorry. that is not a crisis. recent activity, yes, janet yellen most likely made the right call, but the conversation shouldn't be about recent activity. it should be about achievement, about rules and rule-based activities. whether it's about taxes or living appropriation bill to appropriation bill, leaving money overseas that could do more here. all of these things are why we don't have achievement. many believe zero interest rate policy is one cog of that, but it is also a negative. it's a negative. now, can you raise rates? no, maybe it's too late, but we need a way to assess short-term benchmarks like the overnight rate. listen, you know, when it comes to the dow, the dow, the dow trades up and down. s&p, your airline tickets aren't just just at one place for a long time. i have an idea. here. let me borrow that a minute, will you?

>> oh, here you go. you want these? >> all right. they're doing some construction work down here. maybe this will be a little more appropriate way to understand what's going on. all right. so we have our hotel rates. i don't see a loss. okay. nail those to the wall. let's see, the dow, the dow -- does the dow trade? yes, it's an aggregate pricing discovery system. we don't say nail it to the wall. airline tickets. in airline tickets were low a month ago and they're high today, too bad. it moves. basically when it comes to fed funds, they want to nail it to the wall, and i say our whole panel this morning said i'm just not with it. that's not the way it's done. let's look at achievement, accomplishment, and see if the plan is working. 2.1 gdp isn't what it should be, but it's not crisis mode. the unintended consequences are hard to find. there's no documentation i know of that any of this is truly

making a positive difference in the economy. why shouldn't capital be allowed to float and have price discovery like anything else? it doesn't make sense. simon, back to you. >> put the hammer down, rick. put the hammer down. >> no, no. i will not put the hammer down. >> okay. on that note, next on the show, did you nail the number today? cara swisher will also be coming up on "squawk alley" in a moment. if there's one thing the human foot has always been good at... it's unleashing great power. the is performance line just got a power boost. introducing the lexus is 200 turbo and is 300 awd v6. the is line has never been... more powerful. once driven, there's no going back.

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congratulations go to our nail the number winner. reece came closest to the 142,000 figure officially that we received. his guess was 143,267. he joins us now on the newsline. are you naturally a pessimistic man, maurice? >> no, not really. pessimistic about this market, though. >> what led you to your forecast, as i sign the frame here? i wasn't here all week. i'm sign it today. you can have all of our signatures. maurice, how did you get to that very precise number that you picked? 143,267. >> i looked at the previous

numbers on the website. >> and i guess you can see, of course, that they're declining. what do you do for a living, just out of interest? tell us more about yourself. give us some color on who you are with this win here. >> i'm retired from the army. i sell on ebay. i have an ebay store. >> what do you sell on ebay? >> i sell military items like stickers and -- >> are you making money in the market at the moment, maurice? what's your view of where the market is likely to go? >> i'm -- i just bought a position in silver crest, and i think it will go up. >> all right, maurice. congratulations. this signed frame is coming your way. maurice gilmore. signed by the whole "squawk on the street" team. >> the really good news here is that we're cutting our losses. we were down well over 200 points in the wake of unemployment figure, but now

we're down just 118 on the dow. >> you never know these days with the markets. lots of intraday. twists and turns. with that we hand it over to you, carl, for "squawk alley." >> it is 8:00 a.m. at ham zon headquarters and 11:00 on wall street, and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ >> welcome to "squawk alley" on a friday. we'll talk to cara swisher in a moment, but, first, we have to talk about the markets. starting to regain some ground, ofrs