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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 2, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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talking about endless qe, is that a possibility? >> no, i don't. i like evan's spirit but i think sara is right, profits are the mother's milk of stocks. >> thank you, larry kudlow. rick weiter, sara evan, that does it for us on "closing bell." let's get over to the crew on "fast money" which begins now. >> thank you kelly. live from the nasdaq market site. this is "fast money." i'mmill. tim, steve, dan and guy today. tonight on "fast," apple turning negative on the year. but one analyst said now is the time to pounce and shares could, get this, double. we'll be here to explain. and a new report showing uber is growing faster than you think. the ub earization of the world. and a historic reversal in stocks after an awful job reports. the dow was down at the low of the session and ended up 200 points. that is a 450 point swing shaking it the biggest percent
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reversal stocks have seen in four years and much of that has to do with the notion the fed is off the table for a long time. maybe not a 2015 event, possibly even into 2016 at this point, gee. >> or are the next move instead of raising rights, to the down side. another qe 4. >> that is not good. >> it is not good. tim, i agree 100%. and when the numbers came out today, the numbers were bad an the revisions were worse. and i absolutely thought that 1820 level in the s&p we would retest. i think a lot of people thought that. but once it started feeding on itself, it is almost that simple. and the reason i say that is the bond market held on to half of the strength. gold was still higher. yes, the dollar rallied but still down. a lot of cross-currents today. but the bottom line is the economy is not as strong as you think and the fed is in play for the wrong reasons. >> the kre, which is the etf
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that tracks the regional banks, that depend on lending, that finishes lower starkly. that was an underperformer for the session. >> and some of the banks were down. which i think is a great financial opportunity. they should test what this means today. financials will truly trading but people are oversimplifying what to do and if you don't see the yield curve steepen they are dead money and that is priced into the sector, i would be buying financials on todays -- >> hold on. that is your fed -- that is your playbook for the fed being on hold. i feel like that would be the playbook for the fed raising the rates. >> that is exactly what people did to financials today. you started to see the reversal. financials have been beaten up. everything else has had the rally. and unlike guy, i think that because even though i don't think the world is that bad a place and i think the economy is chugging along just fine, i
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don't think the market is ready to go higher. i don't think today's test was anything substantial to trade to the long side on. >> and i totally agree. and what does work on both sides of the argument? utilities. they have worked when we are thinking about where is the hundred for yield. that is my way of playing the fed. but we have to calculate a couple of things. china closed until next week. yellen got the perfect number. today on the floor i got a boat load of sell numbers that was healthy. get them out of the way. now you get the bounce going into the day. they rally maybe to guy's point, a lot of short covering here but the bounce levels, 19 45-1965. you stud shill be a seller of the market. >> i thought if the fed would raise, i thought they were damned if they do and damned if they don't. and i still feel that way. to me you want to stay defensive and stay domestically focused.
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not for the consumer but kind of defensive. utilities is one. and the s&p is still in a big down trend. and i want to clarify one thing tim said. you are not optimistic about equities. i think they got the worst possible data today. because yellen told us that the globe is the one thing they are not doing this lift-off for. so if the global is going to depress, then equities have a big problem and i'm not sure they can rally in that environment. >> quick response. >> i'll push back and say that one, equities have taken on the volume when there weren't other asset classes. but early in the week we thought this was a credit scare. it is now a growth scare. it is better for equities. equities have more room to rally. if it is a credit square, monday is what you'll get again. >> so stay with financials and
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utilities. >> the goldminer is up today. if the dollar is going to go down. gold has been imperus and it will rally and gdx will get you done. ben bernanke will be on "squawk box" on monday morning for an exclusive interview so you will not want to miss that. we have a news alert on tesla. let's get to seema in the newsroom. >> tez law delivering 11580 vehicles in the third quarter, a 49% year-over-year, higher than the second quarter. this q3 number does include the first deliveries of the new model x suv and doing the back of the envelope math here, in order to reach muchg's 50,000 target they have to deliver 16,843 cars in the next quarter. >> earlier today we were asked about what deliveries look like
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and he said there was an uptick in the orders for the x and the s which gets at the concern about cannibalize is and he said he saw what he believes could be a record day for model s deliveries the day after the x event. so i thought that was interesting. and we did see the stock move higher on the comments. so what is the trade here. we have the data on the third quarter delivery and the other data on the record day for model s orders. >> i think they are transparent and they tell us the deliveries ahead of time. and that is great if you are an investor. what is next? what is the catalyst? people will focus on and what you just said what, is the potential for cannibalization. go back and remember in january investors got crazy when it was reported they sold maybe 30 model s's in china and that is the -- growth market. so you have to think about what the consumption is like for the
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$130,000 suvs. >> moving on. apple tumbling and negative on the week. and that doesn't stop the next person. brian white is from drexel hamilton. grate to have you with us. the 200 dfrms price target are things that we know but what will zap the stock out of its funk? >> that is a good question. what we've seen over the past several weeks, the summer, is a concern about china. and what is happening over there. 27% of revenue. also concern about iphone comps going negative over the next couple of quarters. and i think people aren't giving apple any credit for this transformational cycle that they're in. and so i think all of these concerns have put the stock at 8 times x cash right now, pretty close to a trough. it has troughed in the past at about seven times and the s&p is 15 multiple right now. so people need to start thinking
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differently about apple. especially as you see the competitors really collapsing by the wayside. >> it seems that people are thinking about apple and maybe even rerating the stock and so that eight times multiple might be now appropriate. it is coming off what was a record weekend for sales and that didn't do anything but move the stock lower on the week. underperforming the market. so i guess as an analyst, brian, when do you think -- is it going to be fourth quarter results that we're waiting for at this point? >> yeah, i think people want clarity on what is happening in china. i think that is the most important. i was in china a couple of weeks ago. we'll go a couple of weeks down the road here. and apple fever is alive and well there. so i have no concerns. and like we talked about before, think about what people are missing in china is that apple, number one, captured the top share in china in the march quarter which is amazing since they don't have a low-end smartphone and the tier five cities don't have online stores or retail stores and they have
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not made a push and that is 85% of the people in china. and the next area, in the next 12-24 months is india. they have put big efforts behind the scene in india and you'll see this market break out. so i think there are levers in the iphone cycle and a new product category with apple watch. >> brian white of drexel hamilton, $200 price target. what will break it out of the funk? we knew that two, three months ago. >> we have to see the holiday season numbers. i don't understand the apples to oranges in terms of the china comparison. >> for the weekend sales alone. >> and why shouldn't you be excited about china and say, yeah, it is different and it is a much bigger market. the one place they can growth. >> market looked terrible this morning. trading down 107.5 and that is a
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big fib retracement level but i believe the market does head lower which china comes back online so apple you could see discount prices going forward. i still think it is a buy on discount. >> it should be dead money until we get the fourth quarter results. >> apple stocks are trading better today. friday, the huge reversal. and the fact that the stock hasn't been participating at all. this stock today should be north of $115 and it is not and with that 103.5 is my line in the sand. a new report said uber is growing faster than you think and that could be bad news for a number of stocks. we are naming names. and gold surging today. that could be great news for stocks trading under $5 a share. we'll tell you what those are ahead. much more "fast money" still ahead. when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly
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the triple choice sale -- on now at sleep train. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ welcome back to "fast money." alibaba topping the tape. shares jump 7%. it comes among the golden week where the stock market is
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closed. >> consumption stocks are high and the lockut is out of the way and everything did well today and stay in bob. >> and then you have singles day coming up. >> absolutely. >> and we have a number of stocks on the street. so it is time for the traders to take on the analysts and grade the upgrade. >> love this game. >> no rate influence here, please. starting off with morgan stanley hiking the price truck from $38 to $35. saying they should see revenue growth in 2015 and should cappalize on opportunities. >> i'm going to give them a grade i never got myself, i'll give them an a. and they were right to have it on hold because the stock has moved sideways. a couple of weeks ahead of earnings, 14 times forward earnings and i think the stock will catch up with the peers. i would say an a. for morgan stanley. well done. >> an a. for morgan stanley.
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>> because i think into earnings, i think it will be good. it is two weeks from now. in the 27th after the market and they are setting up for what they deem to be a rally in the space given the selloff and the potential selling. >> it is tactical. >> i believe it is. i owe could be wrong. >> next um, google. it pointed to the you tube new strong growth and other catalysts it. will start trading as alphabet on monday. >> yeah, so, i give it a b. and i'll tell you why. i think this stock was range bound for a long time until it broke out on the q2 report. they have a new cfo and doing things that alphabet thing. and people are curious about it. and it will take time for people to see how they report the different units so. me they put a $700 price target
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and the last time it went up 16% in kun day, i think it was $650 or something like that. so i think it is fairly valued. you could see it at 700 or back at $600 so i'm not a buyer here. >> dunkin' donuts, the worst day yesterday. analysts saysing this a buy at this level. here is what jeremy scott said. >> it has the 100% franchise model that generated significant and stable cash flow. one of the best shareholder yields in the industry and so we think that premium is warranted and stock is trading cheaply. >> upgraded it to outperform and lowered it to $50 from 6:00 dollars per share. grasso. >> i think they have to jump eefr it the minimum wage increase. and the ceo said they are having a tough time offering specials against that. even the upgrade, i don't think
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he was bullish. if you read the last line, wee lower our price target from 50 to 56. they have been beaten up. it is in the name. and i understand it. i give it a b. but the stock will still run out of gas sometime soon. >> but is the b. because you don't agree with the upgrade but because it is meandering and doesn't have much left. >> i think it is both. i think he stated his case well and on the last part he hedged himself. so i should have given him a b-plus but i don't like giving upgrades. >> so kept the price target stronger. >> for the retail investors, it is confusing. >> coming up, tesla jumps into the session. one trader thinks it will head higher. we'll explain after the break. you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. in the meantime, that is what is coming up on "fast." >> uber is taking over the world. and a new report says it could be trouble for a group of
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stocks. we're naming names. plus -- could the best offense be defense. the surprising names that could be a buy off today's sluggish jobs report when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money." u.s. auto sales off their best month in ten years. but a new survey from magnitudin visor said the rise of uber has changed attitudes toward buying a car. we have a first look at the surveys' findings. great to have you with us. this survey would be troubling for automakers, i would think. >> i understand that, melissa. i don't think it will happen overnight. uber is a huge momentum. it is like a mack truck rolling down the street gaining speed. so i do think we're going to see this in the number of auto sales. i don't we didn't see it this month but let's see a year or two and see how consumers change their attitude toward uber. >> what is the headline finding in your survey, mike, of the users, what is their intention when it comes to car buying. >> 22% of the people in the u.s.
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using uber which we estimate in the 20 to $30 million range. so something in the three to -- 20 to 30 million people. so somewhere in the 3-4 million people tell us they are considering holding off on buying a new car. and that is a lot of cars in an industry that sells 15-20 a year. >> and i think the last time we had you on, you were discussing what the finds were when it came to netflix and the streaming services and what attitudes were toward cutting the cord and you made the point then it wasn't going to be overnight but what is concerning is there is a generation of kids and young people, millennials who are the 22% and eventually that will grow. is that what we're waiting for, a generational change? >> i think it will come from the generation, the millennial and the plural generation below them. but i don't think we have to wait until their the majority. old people like me are using uber and it will not disrupt
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taxis and limos, it will disrupt the whole auto industry. >> unless they get in on the uber action? >> well, there you go. i'm sure they would be happy to sell it for $80 billion. >> all right. mike, we'll leave it there. thank you for your time. fascinating sur fay. mike for. will cars be impacted and the question is what companies will be hit by the sharing economy. let's go around the horn. tim. >> staying in the auto space hurts. rental cars, who wants to rent when you can uber it. 61% of the hert z market is the inefficiency of the merger activity. >> what is that music? ♪ >> oh, i liked it, whatever that sound was. >> that was a wookie. >> i'm going with marriott brands and they saw that timeshares were taking off. so if you talk about sharing
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that whole perception of sharing anything, they spun off vacation club and so they are taking the hit there so longer term hotels will be hit by this. >> like air b and b type stuff. >> and earlier you mentioned the regional banks that rely on lending. this week the biggest news i saw as far as investments in the private market was soft bank led a billion dollar round in sofy. so they are peer to peer lending operation and i can't imagine that with that sort of money behind it they didn't release what the valuation was. but these guys are making a lot of loans and it will be disruptive to traditional lenders. >> this music is fantastic. >> it is a ring tone. >> i didn't know that. >> i'm going to button this up. timmy started with hert z and i will end with it. the stock has been cut in half since the summer of last year.
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valuation is not that attractive. in my opinion. and the stock can't get out of its own way here. bus if the world is changing, as it appears to be doing, people will be renting those cars, sister, i'm just saying. >> i don't rent cars. >> well there you go. you can't drive, either. >> i'm not good for that. >> no. >> fast but not least, a selfie stick for dogs was just unleashed on the market. get it. >> that is rough. >> oh, man. >> wrong suit, my man. >> clever dogs is behind the pooch selfie. they claim pet owners can snap the perfect photo by attaching it to your smartphone which comes equipped with a tennis ball. >> what is the tennis ball about? >> i dope kn-- i don't know why- oh, i understand. is that a bit pull? >> that looks dumb. >> that is not for nothing.
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>> nice family dog. >> what company will be disrupted now. time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim seymour. >> we have to look at banks next week. especially if you believe we have the field curve. financials are oversold. >> the upside is that china has been offline so you don't get the extra push on the likes of glenn core. so let's go xle down 20% year-to-date to off the bottom it is 7% off and you have more time to run going into next week. >> dan nathan. >> stick around for "options action" we'll talk about a way to play staples but right now i want to move out of high valuation and high growth into defensive and i have a defined risk way to play the xlp. >> that is great for final trade. it is a production for tv. >> he should have allowed me -- because you're going to be on the big show next. >> it is embarrassing when the
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guy has to tease himself. >> giving the people a way to play, here. >> sorry. >> i'll be watching from the set of fm in a few minutes. >> no you won't. >> tesla -- say it stevie. tesla. these deliveries are just enough. i think the stock will hallie next week. >> that does it for us here on "fast money." see you back here at 5:00 on monday for more "fast." but don't move, "options action" tarts right after this break. they have passions to pursue.tarts right after thi. how do they avoid trips to the post office? stamps.com mail letters, ship packages, all the services of the post office right on your computer. get a 4 week trial, plus $100 in extras. including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/now and never go to the post office again.
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put the
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hey there. we're live from the nasdaq markets in time square. crazy day for stocks. guys will try to make sense of it. but first here is what is coming up. well it might be time to go back, because casino stocks hit the jackpot today. we have a trade that could beat the house. we'll explain. plus, bullying breakout. not the cubes you put in hot water, the gold bars you put in the bank. because gold is setting up for a generational trade. we'll break it down. >> and how would you like to buy home

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