tv Options Action CNBC October 2, 2015 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
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hey there. we're live from the nasdaq markets in time square. crazy day for stocks. guys will try to make sense of it. but first here is what is coming up. well it might be time to go back, because casino stocks hit the jackpot today. we have a trade that could beat the house. we'll explain. plus, bullying breakout. not the cubes you put in hot water, the gold bars you put in the bank. because gold is setting up for a generational trade. we'll break it down. >> and how would you like to buy home depot for just a buck.
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"options action" starts right now. >> what the heck happened today. mike, turn to you first? >> you know, very few drug addicts give up it voluntarily. so when someone says you don't have to give it up this week, they celebrate. and i think that is what we're seeing. if you are looking at the market right now, it looks nuts and i think it is. i don't know if there is more i can say than that. >> so bad jobs means the fed is on hold for longer and the drugs will be -- >> q3, 4, 5, 6, eternity maybe. sure, why not. we'll throw liquidity at the problem. and if take a look at which areas did well and didn't do so hot, that is exactly what you're seeing. because here the market rallied and the area that was doing well on the back of the notion that rates would rise, financials, didn't do as well as everything else. so while i'm taking a look at that, that is the only ebt
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pretation -- interpretation we have. >> and what does that reversal look like to you? >> they are not mild. but did anything happen. on the week, the market was up 1% and fairly benign. but what we know is that there was still net damage done. it was undercut and the health care sector undercut the 24th low and the index and so forth and so on. so it is not a particularly good thing that you rebound. you want to get this out of the way. you want to go down and really have some pain. the fact that we keep bouncing back, i think that is the problem. >> yeah, and i would just add that what have we seen. the market feels like it has gotten its footing back and appears to be better but i think it is important to talk about the damage done and some of the biggest market leaders. you just talked about bank stocks. most of the bank stocks just the other day broke the lows from august 24th. that sort of damage and the
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stuff in the bioteches over the last week and a half, i don't think you can have reversals off of that sort of damage. to me, we were talking about it before. i think on this desk we've been talking about it for weeks now. that you want to be a bit more defensive and be out of high valuation and high growth. you have a great call, sticking with the fang stocks and the things that everybody is crowded with, the amazon, netflix and facebook. and they are. that is the last battle fought in a way. but to me, if you take those out there is a lot of bad stock. >> there were a lot coming off the bottom, the kroess, the energy. >> it is just junk bounce. >> and dan you are looking at? >> at consumer standard & poor'sles and the s&p is the xlp. and one thing that is interesting, i think we have a one-year chart here. it was trading well for the better part of the year. but right now it is only 6% off of the all-time highs it made earlier in the year and showing very good relative strength, the
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s&p. the s&p 500 is down 5% and this is down maybe 50 bips. so i'm of the belief they'll get to the high growth stocks. i don't think you want to be there. because i believe we'll break the august lows smat point. i don't think what happened today is healthy and i think you want to move to defensive sort of stocks. a lot of staples have been hit hard. proctor and gamble is down 20% on the year. and so i think some of that may be discounted. and i want to make one more point we're on the options show here. volatility is low relative to the other sector etfs. so today i looked out to november. and when the stock was 47.45, you could buy the november '47 call for $1.45. that is 2% of the underlying stock price for all intents and purpose and the break even is 48.45.
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and i think a stock like this or an etf like this could make a move back to the prior highs if the market goes higher or if the market stays around and stays volatile. i think there is a lot of scenario for trade wins. it is not expensive in a high volume environment and i think you have a low risk here. >> i agree that the options are cheap but i don't know that the stocks are particularly cheap. the only thing that you pointed out that could potentially support them is that this is potentially going to help weaken the dollar which is big for multi nationalities but the palmolive and tobacco and stocks that have declining revenues and eps and still trading at 22 times earnings, that doesn't seem particularly cheap. so i think i think these calls would be the only way to do it cheap. >> and last week you were looking atality rhea. >> and taking to have your cake
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and eat it too. on a four month basis, staples have outperformed the basis point. but if you look at the relative down trend line, they are just making relative highs above the downgrade. it is important. i would concur. >> you love it? >> how about that. >> concurring for him is love. let's move on to the red hot commodities which is gold. the metal enjoying the best day in more than a month. but gold bucks may still be broken hearts. jackie has that story. >> that is exactly right, melissa. we did see a $23 pop in gold prices today after the disappointing jobs number. gold trader logic is that we probably won't get the fed rate hike this year. that is good for gold prices. having said that, it was about a 2% move today. we were watching on august 20th and that was a 2.25 move. but the first positive day for
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six. and that is a good sign. and for the week, it was down 1% and for the month it is down near 4%. having said that if gold finishes 2015 down, it will be the third straight year it is seeing losses. we haven't seen a record like that since 1997. and the last point to make sheer, the trading range of 1100 to 1150, people say we could test the 1150 resistance but don't think there is enough momentum to break out and they are looking to trade the short-term moves in either direction. back to you. >> jackie, thank you. so which way will gold break? we turn to the chart master? you have a trade. >> it is a long down trend but it looks as though it is coming to an end but let's try to figure it out together. so gold, this is a disaster. if you were to define a down trend and move to the top left to the bottom right, but if you were to draw a line basically along the peaks, at or near the highs of 2011, we flirted with
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this line three or four times and closed on it. so any kind of strength will do one thing. it will move us above the down trend line for about three years. but i want to point out where this is happening on the long-term chart. so here is our long-term chart. and this is very important. the low of 257, the high of 1920 and the midpoint for 50% retracement, yes, is exactly where we are now, on this line. and so if this is going to stabilize here and it looks that way, we closed -- obviously that is the low. we close the higher. we're at 1136 now. if this in fact serves its purpose and we do in fact start to move above the down trend line, that is not random. it is moving above a three-year line just as it reaches the 50% retracement level. so let's talk about goldminers. now gold is only half-way back from the low.
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goldminers are all the way back. in fact, this is the index out of the stock exchange, we're at the all-time lows. so put them together. still gold, a 50% retracement, gold miners at an all-time low and we play off the all-time low and make a bet. so here is our etf, gtx, it is liquid, can you trade it. they close at 14 and change. just to get to the down trend line. yes, this down trend daily would take us above the weekly down trend line to above 17. take a shot here. >> so you are trading in the gdx. what is your trade? >> i'm taking a look. this is often a place where i said i'm not a gold bug but these are at the lower end of the range. i wouldn't want to reach out and buy the stocks so you have to use options. so unlike the xlp options dan was talking about are not cheap because the sector is volatile. so use the spread.
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i'm looking out to december. the 14.5, 17% call spread, spent $0.75 for that. and the put spreads are much more expensive than the call spreads in gdx right now. additional indication there might be some washout there in the sector. >> i think that is the way to play it. if you look at the gdx, there is a 20% rally from the trough. and these guys are not being particularly greedy. they are looking back to the down trend. if they got there, carter and mike would say this is a great spot to probably lay it out on the short side. so to me i like the defined risk plays, especially when you see squeezy action in sectors that are -- where the sentiment is just horrible. >> carter? >> i think it is an asymmetrical bet. if you get it wrong, obviously you cut your losses. that is what you do with all of your bets. but if you get it right, you might get what dan is talking
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about, another one big counter turn around and make your 15 or 20% and get out. >> sent a tweet to option action and if it is civil, we might read it on air. and we have the hottest options news and videos throughout the week and exclusive trades so check it out. here is what is coming up next. how would you like to protect your apple stock for next to nothing. we'll show you how. plus -- because something just happened in china that put casino investors hitting the jackpot and we'll tell you what that is when "options action" returns. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.
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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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welcome back to "options action." mccowen casino and sands, wynn, las vegas all seeing massive gains on reports china may move to support the city's economy. jane wells is live in l.a. with that story. jane? >> same day we got the numbers for september on macau, they were terrible. but yes, the government is going to help? how? we don't know. but it was going to make everybody happy. win resorts, fell 33% from a year ago to $2.2 billion. that is 16 straight months of decline. that is the lowest take in five years. the good news, the month to month declines are slowing and credit suisse said momentum was picking up by the end of september. and mgm ceo said he expects comps to start returning this month and macau will turn positive in 2016. morning star agrees, a good sign. today the central government
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said china will introduce policies to help stabilize the macau economy. this is fresh off president jinping's visit to the white house where jim muren pled his case in person. and not know whether that will setoff the corruption of money laundering and limits on how much cash chinese citizens can withdraw which mer in mc -- when they are in macau. and they expect a 20% drop in revenues year-over-year. and that is still better than last year. >> jane, thank you. so as jane points out, the government promises but that seems flimsy, mike. >> are they going to allow more money laundering and corruption. it seems we need to have government officials taking their ill-gotten gains to macau. that is ridiculous. i don't see how they will fix
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this. but one thing i will say is that we should take a look at revenues and as a percentage of gdp we should see comparable to what we are here and that could mean stabilizatiostabilization. >> it almost doesn't pass laugh test. when the stock is in some sort of violent deck like line this. something is wrong. and imagine washington is going to step in to help vegas? it is a joke. >> that is tone deaf. >> so what i found fascinating is i remember jane's report and the news was out that she was saying that the chinese officials were going to do this and the stock went down yesterday in wynn. and what happened today? a lot of weirdness. in our markets on a night when shanghai was closed we saw a lot of chinese adr's go ballistic.
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and as a trader you want to find similar situations and other stocks that have very poor sentiment where people have thrown them out and they go down every way. and let's say cat tractor would be one. or joy global, they are tied, i think, to emerging markets. and if you look at the charts, it is bad news after bad news. so could these sort of stocks -- i'm not saying 22% in a day but when you have a sentiment turn, it can turn fast and that is the point i would take away. >> but there is no chinese government forced to step in and say for cat or joy we're going to help this industry and -- >> but if they support the core economy which has been principally things like the real estate boom which hasn't been filling the housing but building. that is what propelled the commodities markets for the past decade. and if you get stabilization there then some of the stocks have fallen sharply. but at the end of the day you
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need to see these companies an the mining companies to get to a sustainable level. they can't be propelled off of artificial growth, which is what happened in cat in particular. >> what does cat look like? >> down and to the right. i don't know. just try not to buy stocks in down trends. or if you are trying to do that with gold. maybe they are trying to break the down trend. these are still in violent down trends. >> so don't touch? >> i wouldn't. >> it was a sour week for apple but we found way to save you money and we'll explain when "options action" returns. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.
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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. welcome back to "options actio action". two stalks, to winners. we look back on winning trades to see if we could make more money. first up. apple. here is what dan said last week. >> if you share the view that i do that the stock is dead money
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but you are worried about a sharp selloff, do something called collaring your stock. if you own 100 shares of apple and it closed out at 115 today. you could sell at the 130 call at $1.50 and by one of the december 1, '00 puts at $2.50. that structure cost you $1. >> well good thing he bought protection because shares are lower by 3.5%. so how are you managing this trade. >> i'm of the mindset that apple will be in a range. i don't believe it will be north of 130 between now and december expiration. so match that when it is offered at 30 or $0.40 over the last month but you want to focus on the put and that increased by a dollar over the course of the week. and the stock was down a few bucks and the put -- the december 1, '00 put was up a dollar. so at some point you may want to look to sell a lower strike put
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and create a put spread. the put cost you $1. if you could sell the december '90 put went out at $1.50 bid then you have the structure for a credit. that is how i would manage the trade. you want to hold on to your stock, you love apple but using options here. >> how does apple look? >> this is a transition from bull to bear. the break out at the high, i did the opposite and backed away. i'm fairly confident, if equities continue to zeert -- deteriorate, this will change. >> next up, take a listen. >> this sideways action is a set up for another bounce off the line. home depoet, higher. buy it. >> i'm looking at november 105, 120 call spread. with the stock trading around 115, it has to go up five bucks
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for an upside and that total trade will cost you $0.90. >> so we start with carter. do you still like this name. >> nothing has happened. we're still sideways. so the objective is a breakout. we haven't seen that so stay with the trade. >> i would stay long. but i think one thing you can consider is adjusting the strikes. we are marginally higher right now and there are a little bit of profits. >> what do you think of the home builders in general? >> i thought they were selling off and thinking about a rate increase and didn't catch much of a bid today with the rates lower. home depot, to these guys point, the chart is amazing and been in a nice space. so could it have a nike move if they would put up an upside, no doubt about it because it is basing. i'm not sure the trading for housing up here in the u.s. has a whole lot of legs. >> coming up next, the final call. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.
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wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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time for a tweet. thomas asks, assuming a price near 60 for steffa, do i buy, write with december '60 calls. >> yes. i like that trade. the volatility is above and the stock has bounced off the bottom but nowhere near the highs so i think that is a good trade. >> have you looked at the teva chart lately? >> no. it was doing quite well. it collapsed. there is so much vol here. there thing has no direction. i would say try something else. >> this is the thing. a buy right is a situation where you are looking for it to bounce around. that is when you'll get paidond trade and that is the trade we're making. >> next tweet. scott asks are you buying long dates spy puts as a way to hedge in case of coming earnings
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disaster, dan? >> i wouldn't look to buy long if i was looking at the near term. edx is high right now it. doesn't look high when you look at amazon implied vol but it is really high so it is hard to make money directionally here so i think if you are looking to protect your portfolio in the near term, you may want to look to do spreads. buy one put and sell another downside put. >> that is true. what is happening is all of this has initiated panic and people bid up because they raced out and bought the puts and that is the reason the price is as high as it is. >> and time for the final cart. carter braxton worth. >> you like gold, gld, take a shot here. >> mike kuo. >> do options and i like spreads. >> dan nathan. >> i like the consumer stocks and xlp calls into note. >> and ben bernanke on "squawk
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box." you have don't want to miss that. and it looks like our time has expired. i'm melissa lee. check out the website, "options action" at cnbc.com. see my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain you but to educate you and coach and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. get ready to set your alarm clock for 2:45 a.m. to get up with me. at
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