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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  October 8, 2015 5:00am-6:01am EDT

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good thursday morning. welcome to worldwide exchange. >> here are your headlines from around the world. >> deutsche bank shares are rallying after a record 6 billion euro loss. germany's largest lender takes a massive write down and warns it may scrap it's dividend. >> a deal for dell. rumors swirl the pc giant is in talks to buy ecm in what could be the largest tech deal ever. >> hillary clinton takes on u.s. president barrack obama saying
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she does not support his transpacific partnership pact as she outlines her campaign to take on wall street if she becomes the democratic candidate. >> not so fast. the japanese retailer misses profit forecasts on impairment losses. >> a poll tile session yesterday but on this thursday morning looks like the dow is kicking off today on a four day winning streak so we'll see if the streak and the run continues. fair value is telling us it should be up to 13 points and the dow jones pricing in triple digit losses so we're 115 points below fair value. the nasdaq should be seeing losses of 32 and change but today the story in europe is all about the banks. european banks paired back some of their losses after some steeper declines to kick off
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this thursday morning and this stems back from deutsche bank. they're going to issue official earnings later on this morning but germany's largest bank said we'll tell investors what is going on and stunning the market with a record 6 billion euro loss and exercise in kitchen sinking it. outlining a slew of charges that may cost them the dividend this year. total charges topping 6.2 billion euros. what's behind all this pain for deutsche bank? it's not a surprise. they have been trying to change the strategy at the bank and we're looking at declining fees when it comes to corporate banking and most of the pain comes from the 5.8 billion euro impairment charge.
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and this includes a write down on the post bank state. they also set aside more funds from legal provisions going forward and logged a write down on the 20% stake in a chinese lender. so as you see, lots of headaches swirling for them still. >> absolutely. let's discuss this further. carolyn is just joined around the desk as well. we were expecting a much bigger fall in the share price? >> yeah. we were. that was to be expected. yes the divy may be cut completely and what able lists were expecting was a 75 cents per share for this year and that may be scrapped completely and also these write downs are so big it did come as a surprise. we knew some write downs were going to come but we didn't know the full extent of it but then during the course of the morning we saw quite a rebound in shares and they're up by 1.2% off the session highs. they were as high as 3%.
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why is that? it has to do with capital. if they're cutting their dividend this year that would give them 1 billion euros to fill their capital hole. they would still have a ratio of around 11%. that wouldn't be so bad. it wouldn't be great. it would be somewhere in the middle when it comes to european banks but the fears of an imminent capital hike are receding and it to quote this morning, the stock is priced for recapitalization if the new ceo can convince shareholders that they can do without a capital hike well then he sees upside for the shares. i'm also looking at a note from citi. their analysts think a capital hike might still come but only in 2016 once the strategy and the restructuring is bed down. >> who knows, indeed. thank you for joining us as
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well. quite an interesting swing in sentiment from 12 hours ago before the markets opened to today. what's your view on why the share price is now up? >> well, i guess the key date from here is the 29th of october when the chief executive will highlight the 2020 strategy which the strategy was known to the announcement to previous management with with an almost astonishing lack of data. so the chief executive is taking it's time to review the bank and i think of the big number, the total charge, we were expecting it down to deutsche bank because when they require it in 2011 the value is clearly different from the value they could fetch. it's intriguing the evaluation which may signal that they cut
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the activity. demonstrate that they're all about capital and out to the third potential. >> do you think the market woke up and thought wait a second, this is mostly an accounting loss and not a real loss? they're expected to make a billion euros in the nine months. >> no. if you look at the net profit for the year on the nine month it's 1 billion euro. you're starting for the european markets quite a weak quarter. so in terms of operation they're getting that so you remember the first quarter it was good and very bad in terms of cost to income with the cost to income at 85 versus the 65% aspiration. >> how much do you care about the announcement that was made last night? it's got huge implications for the shareholders. if we do see that cut in the
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dividend but for bond holders what does it mean? >> it gets a little bit tied, the 81 bond holder which is a convertible with a write down feature and they set aside something like 2 billion euros in reserves out of which they could pay the dividend and of course they do something on bonuses and either reduce the bonus pays to the staff then you may be a strik i can poitricky y paying it. >> is this something you would be earning? >> no, we don't have recommendation. we look at the debt security. the clear trend is more capital which could come by cancellation or dividend. or potentially a write down the line if need be. >> okay. thank you so much for joining
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us. much appreciated. senior credit analyst. let's just check in on what european markets are doing now and we have slipped into the red as you can see. the ftse 100 down 0.4%. germany and france down a little less than that. italy still managing to get a little bit of a gain. of course we had a strong start to october following a weak third quarter. october did see five or six trading days of gains in the last day or two we just slipped a little bit off that. >> the euro stocks on a four day winning streak as well. let's talk about earnings from japan. this is a brand that virtually every developed market recognizes. the unique brand of clothes owned by fast retailing and the parent company fast retailing profit missing forecast due to a one off 16.1 billion yen impairment loss. back to its j brand label and unique low u.s. store closers.
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we had it falling in participation of the earnings which came out after the bell in tokyo. let's bring in sri and i would say given corporate earnings in japan they have been strong but when it comes to consumer names it's indemic of the entire industry. >> we have that happening around april 2016. >> the second recession in two years in japan. >> that's true. so it's interesting to look at fast retailing because it's a proxy for the broader japanese economy and the consumer as well. so sox and jocks. an indicator for japanese consumer spending. the brand in-turn generates 47% of its sales from japan. so what this is telling you is that the japanese consumer isn't necessarily firing on all four cylinders.
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yes we have seen capital spending increase at japanese corporates to, in a way, unleash that cycle and trickle down effect into the consumer and getting to that 2% inflation target but it's looking so elusive isn't it? the ball is in the court of the boj. they didn't move this week and i think they very well could on october 30th. that's when they update their economic forecasts and inflation data. if they're on the down side at a could very well build a case for more policy support. >> yeah and they have stores all around the world. new york, japan, hong kong and china. what does this say about the global macro conditions if they're not selling as much thermal underwear as they used to. >> well it's telling you very starkly that we're seeing emerging market stress but in the short-term it's interesting to see the price action, isn't it? we all know the impact from the post payrolls disappointment. so the fed interrupted to a
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certain degree and that's giving emerging market assets something of a respite and you're seeing that in some of these very emotions battled currencies as well. but it's still very early days. the fed is going to tighten. we're going to be in a high rate environment and there's going to be volatility associated still to come. whether we're in the early innings of that. >> we don't know if they'll tighten for sure. >> no, we do not. >> they are saying they should be easing more because we're not getting close to the financial crisis. i agree with you. we're probably most likely. >> but most importantly if and when they do its going to be the pace of tightening but a lot of these em assets and markets are looking at. >> i like it when you say stocks and jocks you look directly at
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wilf. >> well, we're men of the world. >> that's right. we'll give you a run down of what to watch for on this trading day. weekly jobless claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time expected to drop slightly and then at 2:00 p.m. the minutes from last months fed meeting which could give us an indication at just how close that call was not to raise interest rates. three fed officials are speaking today so it's busy for fed talk. st. louis fed president james bullard. kocherlakota and williams are on deck and domino's pizza reports before the open and alcoa kicks off. earnings season once again. it's that time already. they'll announce before the bell. >> let's have a look at the top stories today. dell and silver lake are in advanced talks to buy emc. a deal that could be reached within a week would be the largest tech takeover ever. emc is worth about $50 billion
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although a large part of that is from the company's 80% stake in vm wear. they rose 8% in after hours while vmware was up 1%. there's the price action in germany today. it's similar for both although vm ware fractionally below flat. >> costolo has a new gig already. he scored a job with silicon valley. the hit hbo sitcom about six young men that create a tech start up. well, he is a contributor to the program working on its upcoming third season. silicon valley creator mike judge says he consults on story lines. costolo is no stranger to comedy. he did improv in security before moving to the bay area and then becoming twitter's ceo. that's multitalented. >> i've never seen that show. >> i haven't yet but i heard it's very good and a very accurate portrayal of tech start ups.
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trying to get funding and all. >> it's one i've got to get to. >> speaking of getting to, let's talk about sony beating it. get it? sony, michael jackson? they're set to part ways with michael jacksons estate. we'll explain why after this short break. (vo) what does the world run on? it runs on optimism. it's what sparks ideas. moves the world forward. invest with those who see the world as unstoppable. who have the curiosity to look beyond the expected and the conviction to be in it for the long term. oppenheimerfunds believes that's the right way to invest... ...in this big, bold, beautiful world. want bladder leak underwear that try always discreet underwear and move, groove, wiggle, giggle, swerve, curve. lift, shift, ride, glide, hit your stride.
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the biggest take over in tech in a play for emc and fast retailing takes a hit as it misses profit forecasts due to impairment losses. let's check in on european markets. we're in the red only slighting losing a little bit of ground. we're up plflat about an hour o so ago. they're all a few bases points below flat. italy to bear out gains. we started october positively for european markets. so a little bit of decline today. not too significant. >> we're on a four day winning streak for the dow. s&p is up six out of the last seven sessions. u.s. futures are selling us
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we're in for a lower start today with the implied open pricing in declines of 10 points. at one point lower by triple digits so pairing back some of the losses and we may be 88 points below fair value and the tech heavy nasdaq should be seeing declines of 24 points and change. let's talk about the global conditions and joining us now we have the global equity strategist at hsbc joining us today. thank you so much. ben, what do you think about the world right now? we are on a winning streak of sorts in europe. fourth straight day of gains for the europe stoxx 600 and the dow is on a winning streak so this might have just been a correction and not a bear market. >> we had a big correction globally. 15%. you haven't seen many of those globally. traditionally markets will
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bounce back from that and a big change in fundamentals and we don't think fundamentals changed here. the fed was going to make a policy mistake and be reemptipre here raising rates and people are concerned on global dproeth out -- growth out of china and we see room for markets to move higher here but it's one of a low growth world with relatively high multiples so i wouldn't overdo how far markets can run here. >> you said it right there. this is a low growth world with high multiples particularly looking at the u.s. maybe the fundamentals haven't changed but have investors just woken up to how challenging an environment we're in? particularly if rates are going to go up given where valuations are after 6.5 year bull market?
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>> we had some what of a bull pack here. your global equity premium evaluations are clearly 15%. it's some what more reasonable. bond yields stayed low here and could actually come lower and that's clearly going to be we think supportive for equity multiples. but i think most importantly in this low growth world you want to go looking for growth and the regional divergences are important here. we're in this 2 to 2.5% u.s. gdp range where somewhere like europe we're seeing earnings accelerating quite nicely. the highest earning growth in the world. we think that consensus number is far too low and we're at the beginning of a multiyear earnings cycle and we're looking at a relatively low economic growth world and you have to be focused on where the earnings growth is going to come through
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and europe is our focus here. >> yeah. >> thank you so much for your tile. we'll take a break here on worldwide exchange. still to come on the program, wall street is under fire. stay tuned to hear how hillary clinton proposes a crack down on financial risk taking. care of my heart.
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>> hillary clinton will unveil a plan to curb the abuses on wall street. let's get out to tracie potts standing by in washington d.c. >> good morning, she is also making headlines because she has rejected at least so far the transpacific trade partnership that president obama has been pushing and that she as secretary of state backed and laid the ground work for. she is worried about the impact of american jobs. that puts her on the side with bernie sanders and against joe biden. we're also following donald trump. he and marco rubio will both be in nevada. trump remains at the top of the polls for republicans. he even says it's about time for
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his numbers to level off. meantime, rubio is number three in the latest florida poll and he's in a battle for support with jeb bush there. bush talked about rubio's lack of experience. rubio's response, it's not a big deal. >> take that. thank you so much. let's take a look at the headlines coming through in ab inbev and they're trying to push through it's take over of sab miller. well they rejected that offer and ab inbev coming up today saying they intend to work proactively to resolve any of these anti-competitive issues in this deal and they're surprised that the board of sab miller continues to say this proposal still very substantially undervalues sab. they is repeatedly offer to share analysis with sab miller and advisors each time they
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refused to engage with them but this is the third time and every time they increased the offer but sab refusing on this merger still calling it substantially undervaluing the company. sony is moving ahead with plans to sell half of its music publishing units. they held the business with michael jackson and the pop stars estate after his death since 1995. so it's estimated that it's worth around $2 billion. sony triggering an exit clause allowing one partner to buyout the other. they own the right to most of the beetles songs as well as marvin gaye and taylor swift. let's check in on shares. tokyo down 1.5%. let's quickly get to baseball and continuing his stellar run and the chicago cubs shut out the pittsburgh pirates 4-0. 4-0 advancing to the national league division series. pitching a complete game shut
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out. scattering for hits and striking out 11 pirates. the cubs ace is unbeaten and has allowed only four earned runs in his last 97 innings pitched and the nhl season kicked off with the defending stanley cup champions chicago blackhawks raising their latest stanley cup banner to the rafters. however the rangers jumping to an early 3-0 lead. lundqvist making 32 saves and the rangers held on for the 3-2 win last night. let's check in on the futures. u.s. market futures after the continued winning streak yesterday.
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welcome to worldwide exchange. >> here are your headlines from around the world. >> deutsche bank shares rally out of the red after a record 6 billion euro loss. the largest lender taking a massive write down and warns it may scrap it's dividend. >> a deal for dell. rumors swirl that the pc giant is in talks to buy data storage firm emc in the largest tech deal ever. >> hillary clinton takes on wall street. the democratic presidential front runner is planning to unveil a sweeping plan today to
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tackle abuses in the finance industry. >> strike averted. fiat chrysler reaches a temporary deal with the united auto workers union to avoid a stoppage sending shares higher. >> good thursday morning. thank you for joining us. let's track the markets and how they're fairing ahead of the u.s. open. we had the dow on a four day winning vehicle. also the s&p up six of the last seven sessions and tracking the futures, fair value is telling us that we're coming back a bit. it was a lot worse than this a few minutes ago. the implied open should be lower by nine points. dow jones industrial as we were down triple digits at one point. just about 80 points below fair value and the tech heavy nasdaq should be seeing declines up
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about 20 points. also we're on a winning streak of sorts here in europe with the euro stocks 400 on a four day winning streak. we have gains and losses. the ftse mib up a little bit. a four day winning streak of its own. the german dax being weighed today by deutsche bank shares at one point and the ftse 100 not really going anywhere but the focus has got to be on lenders. >> let's get a look at the price action in those banks and as you said, deutsche bank having opened down has recovered in positive territory. there it is just shy of 1% so despite all of that overnight and the thought that it could be called down to open as much as 10% down it did open much less than that and it has now rallied to be in positive territory. investors focussing on the fact that given the dividend has been
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cut it's rallied into positive territory and banks across the board, mixed performance today. >> i think people thought about it realizing it's an accounting loss and not an actual loss. let's talk about autos and fiat chrysler and the uaw. the united auto workers union reached a tentative deal on a four year contract averting a strike today. talks really went down to the wire to the midnight dead line. uaw local leaders will meet in detroit on friday to discuss and vote on this deal but let's check in on fiat chrysler shares traded in italy. we're seeing an advance. that's a rally of close to 3%. >> the u.s. chief of vw is expected to admit that he knew about the company's emission issues as long as three months before they told regulators. this according to a statement he is expected to present when he
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testifies before the house energy and commerce committee at 10:00 a.m. est. >> let's take a look at the days other top stories and hillary clinton will unveil a sweeping plan today to curve what she says are the abuses of wall street and it proposes everything from raising the amount of fines that regulators can impose to requiring executives to bear some of those costs. now the democratic presidential hopeful and the front runner also says she doesn't support the transpacific partnership. the tpp trade deal that was just reached this week rejecting really the central piece of president obama's economic agenda and the so-called pivot to asia. during a campaign stop in iowa clinton is concerned about currency manipulation that wasn't part of this deal and drug companies also got the better end of the deal than patients did. it goes in the face of what hillary clinton said when she was secretary of state under
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u.s. president obama. she called it a gold standard, a trademark in global trade. so when she is running for the 2016 white house and presidency she has to flip and turn around because she, you know, she needs to collect the progressive base. >> absolutely right and clearly it's something that sanders opposes and i don't think she wanted that big policy differential to hand him in term of what he could attack her with but you could say four years on from when she was backing it the trade partnership has evolved. it has changed. so she's got a little bit of a leg to stand on but this looks like a change of tune because of the upcoming presidential democratic debate. right, let's stick with politics but switch to the other side and talk about the republican candidate john kasich who is taking fire for allegedly dismissing a university of richmond student that wanted to ask a question and he dismissed
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it with a taylor swift joke. >> i don't have any tickets for, you know, for taylor swift or anything, or go aahead. yes, you were just so excited. yes. >> so that little bit of a diss toward taylor swift has not gone down well. what celebrity should you absolutely not make fun of when running for public office. i think taylor swift is pretty high on the list. >> how many instagram followers does she have? like 26 million or something ridiculous. i gave you my choice, mr. t. but who would you choose. you haven't come out with yours. >> i haven't and i'm not sure who the darling in america is that you would want to avoid. brad and angelina are popular and they have quite a political following as well as the hollywood status. getting these celebrity endorsements is very important isn't it? doesn't really happen here in the u. k. so much? >> really? >> there was a lot of hype ahead
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of the may election when russell brand endorsed ed millibrand. >> you want his endorsement? >> he had big influence. but we'll leave it there. get your views in tous at cnbcwex. markets await the minutes out at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. many analysts were left scratching their heads following the positive u.s. data as to why the committee remains from pulling the trigger. joining us is the chief market strategist. good morning to you. thank you for joining us. that latest nfp print did that justify the move from the fed not to hike rates? >> it certainly supported the basic judgment that the economy is not yet strong enough for lift off but the fed is also looking at other issues like deflation or the threat of deflation as equally important in trying to figure out this
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calculus of when is the right time for the first move. >> when we look at the other rational for why or not they did or didn't hike, you have an interesting view that's related to cheeseburgers, don't you? >> yeah, that's right. we spend a lot of time looking at anything that is unusual in the economic world trying to tease out whatever we can from secondary data and one of the things that we track is the cost of food stuffs that people buy every day and are familiar with and the bacon cheeseburger, bacon, cheese, and some ground beef shows actual levels of deflation year over year. if you're worried about consumers perceptions of deflations we already have it. >> what are you arguing? that the federal reserve members, the fomcs are eating too many cheeseburgers? >> no, they have to have a couple of more because they have
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to see this price inflation is more of an issue than they're worried about and to be less playful we see that in the new york fed survey of consumer expectations where they have come down 50 basis points over the course of the year anchored at food and energy coming down in price. so it's an important issue. >> you look at the employment levels and keep moving the goal posts in term of what full employment looks like in the u.s. we're at 18.4 million in car sales. that's an annual clip. that shows a lot of strength also in the american consumer. >> it absolutely does but in a fairly narrow portion. new cars are typically the upper 20 or 30% of the income strata which we all know is different. it isn't the entire u.s. population is doing well for job growth but you're right the top 20 or 30% is doing well. they are buying cars. >> let's also just touch on
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earnings in the u.s. do you think that will be a strong earnings season or are expectations pretty low and therefore able to beat it? what are you expecting? >> you're right. we had a pretty tough year frankly so far for earnings growth overall in the u.s. it was down about 6% in q-1. down about 11% in q-2. expectations down 3% in corporate earnings for the s&p 500 in q-3 and since corporations send to out perform we could have our first positive comp year over year but just as important will be the guidance from q-4. particularly from financials and technology. >> thank you for joining us today. much appreciated. >> all right. we're going to go to break here on worldwide exchange but coming up on the program, the largest tech deal in history, find out how dell could put itself in the history books with a rumored acquisition.
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dell has been out of the public spotlight since being taken private two years ago. the company shifted away from the struggling pc market to more profitable areas such as data storage and could be on the verge of a major acquisition. let's get out to landon with all
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the details for us from cnbc hq. >> dell and silver lake are in advanced talk to buy emc in the biggest tech take over yet. the deal may be valued at that level although much of it from the stake in vm ware. the take over is currently the broadest tech deal ever struck. the acquisition could be reached within a week. it would reportedly have the buyers spin off vm ware. they have been exploring several options since the wall street journal reported last year they were conducting a strategic review. they have been feeling the hit since the activist investor took a 2% stake in the company last year. the two struck a so-called stand still agreement in january barring elliott from publicly pressuring emc.
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the stock is down 13% this year. emc was once one of the best performers but it's been struggling as revenue slowed to 2% last year and july it reported a 17% drop in quarterly profit and cut it's outlook. dell went private in a $25 billion buyout by the founder michael dell two years ago. a deal would submit it's shift from a consumer based company to one focused on technology such as storage or security for bigger companies. it's not clear how they would finance the purchase. it has about $12 billion in debt. he done think a public listing is appropriate for a company in the midst of a major business transition. they were in talks last year about a possible deal. it was seen as the most obvious buyer but it's out of the running given it's own break up which will take effect in november. today et cetera up about 5%
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while vm ware is down a fraction. >> thank you for that. let's move on. costolo has a new big. he scored a job with silicon valley. the hbo sitcom. they say he is a contributor to the show. mike judge says he consults on story lines. he is no trainistranger to come. he did improv before moving to the bay area. >> would you rather work on a sitcom or be the ceo of twitter. >> i'd rather star in a sitcom. >> instead of being a consultant? >> yeah. otherwise i would take ceo of twitter. >> a lot of headaches. >> can you make either of these things happen for me. >> we'll talk about it after the show. >> let's do it. >> there's a lot of high powered agents in the sports world and some of their clients trying to win the playoffs and get to the
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world series in major league baseball. jake continuing it's stellar run in the chicago cubs shut out 4-0 to advance to the national league division series. pitching the complete game shut out. striking out 11 pirates. he is unbeaten since july 25th and only allowed four earned runs in his last 97 innings pitched and that is what you call dominance. meantime the nhl season kicked off with a defending champions, the stanley cup champions, blackhawks raising their latest stanley cup banner to the rafters before the game started. however the rangers jumping to an early 3-0 lead. henrik lundqvist making 32 saves and the rangers held on for the 3-2 victory. >> as we go to break let's remind you of the headlines.
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shares return to the green after a 6 billion euro loss. hillary clinton is expected to unveil plans to take on what she calls the abuses of wall street later today and fast retailing takes a hit as it misses profits due to impairment losses. we're back in a couple of minutes.
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you wouldn't take medicine without checking the side effects. hey honey. huh. the good news is my hypertension is gone. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck. welcome back. we're struggling for direction as things stand. a couple in the green. a couple in the red. none of them move too significant and we're waiting for ecb minutes in a few hours time. we have bank of england decision and fed minutes later today. ahead of all three of those releases markets struggling for direction. of course october so far has been strong as well. bear that in mind over the last five or six trading sessions. let's look at the european banks
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because deutsche bank in the news today. it paired it's losses. it's now just above flat. up about 12 bases points. it was up about 3% at one point this morning having been down as much as 4%. it's been up and down and it's basically flat as you can see some of the other european banks are down today. let's focus in on germany's largest bank which stunned investors late yesterday with a record 6 billion euro loss. in an exercise some what of kitchen sinking the new ceo out lined a slew of charges and write downs that may cost the company it's dividend this year. total charges top 7.6 billion euros far above any analyst estimates. now most of the pain comes from a 5.8 billion euro impairment charge on its investment banking and private clients business. this includes a write down on the stake. they also set aside more funds and logged a write down on its
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20% stake in china's bank. earlier as i said it was open as much as 10% down. it is now flat. largely because people feel that the dividend cut will stop it from being to raise equity. susan. >> all right. let's check in on the u.s. markets open and we're on a four day winning streak for the dow managing to squeak out 122 point advance yesterday. the s&p 500 yesterday is also up 6 of the last sessions. fair value is telling us we'll be down about 11 points. meantime it should be 95 points below fair value. so we're down and markets kick off and the nasdaq is pricing in losses of 24 points. let's give you a run down of what to watch for on this thursday trading day in the u.s. weekly jobless claims are due out expected to drop slightly from the previous week. at 2:00 p.m. we get the minutes from the last months fed meeting which could give us an
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indication of how close the call was not to raise interest rates and how worried members were about the global slow downment three fed officials speaking today. that includes james bullard and san francisco's jon williams. when it comes attorneyings dome know's pizza reports results before the open. alcoa is out after the close. now alcoa kicks off u.s. earnings. it's that time again. 13 cents in the third quarter according to a fact set poll down more than 50% on last year. last quarter alcoa missing expectations having out paced forecasts in all but one of the previous 13 periods. shares jumping by almost a fifth though in the last ten days since it announced it would split the company in two in the next year but let's dive into the numbers. chief investment officer joining us from new york today. i guess when half of the world
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demand comes from a slowing economy like china it still might be tough. >> that and the fact that commodity prices are under a lot of pressure. that creates a real problem for the part -- one of the two parts being split off. the upstream. now ultimately the price will all start to consolidate at a lower price and start to gain some strength. the other issue will be china and how much control it has outside it's control now and will probably continue to do so so that part of alcoa will be under pressure for quite awhile. >> they have been pruning their costs as well. haven't they been cutting capacity by a third? when does this actually benefit them on the bottom line? >> bottom line they'll start to benefit probably at the end of 2016. in the meantime, there's going to be a to be real pressure. but as you get into 2016 and
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they become publicly traded that cost will start to be eliminated and then i suspect that you're going to see growth particularly and that will help the value added part of it and you'll be getting the shares of the commodity side basically for free. >> and over the last year there's been a few acquisitions. will we see them contribute to the earnings? >> yes. it's taking some sometime and it's going to have the other issue of corporate filings but the fact that they made two very good acquisitions, particularly in aerospace will create a lot of additional value longer term for the value added part of alcoa. >> what about alcoa stock? it trades at 30% before they announced the split. do you think it's priced fairly
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at this point? >> if the earnings come out this afternoon that are not a down surprise and beat the lowered expectations, you're going to see a very short-term jump in the value and in the stock price because there's a significant amount of short interest outstanding but that's only short-term. then i think we'll see a relaxation of the pressure that's being put on the shorts. the price will come back down and then as we get into 2016 the price will start to reflect the benefits of the split up. >> thank you for joining us today. we have to leave it there. let's have a quick look at the u.s. future market before we leave you. as you can see expecting a lower open following a nice start to october and we are minutes from the bank of england, the ecb and fed today. >> and we got earnings starting
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once again. >> that's it for today's show. we'll kick it back over to state side. squawk box is coming up next.
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good morning, dell is in talks to buy data storage company emc. it could be one of the biggest tech deals ever. strike averting breaking overnight. fiat chrysler and the uaw reaching an agreement on a labor deal. plus hacking hilary. clinton's private e-mail server was the target of cyberattacks by china, korea and germany. meanwhile they're breaking with her former boss today saying she opposes president obama's pacific trade deal. it's thursday, october 8th, 2015 and squawk box begins right now. ♪
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>> live from new york where business never sleeps this is squawk box. >> good morning and welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. a warning for renters this morning, prepare to pay more. new survey finds property managers across the country are preparing to hike prices. we have the details later this hour. check out what's been happening with the u.s. stock futures this morning. down by 85 points. if you have been watching the last several days you know what happens in the morning it's no indication of what's going to happen later in the trading session. the dow futures are are down by 86 point bess low fair value and the nasdaq down by 22. >> dell reportedly in talks to buy data storage company

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