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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  October 9, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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8:00 a.m. at tesla headquarters in palo alto, california. 11:00 a.m. here on wall street. "squawk alley" is live.
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>> good friday morning. thanks for joining us on squawk alley. carl and john are out, but joining me for the hour, the one and only david faber. >> i'm here. >> you are here. >> yes. >> thanks for joining us. >> you are welcome. >> tough duty today. thanks, david. also with us on the cnbc newsline is recode executive editor kara swisher. we want to start with tesla because shares have been falling after getting downgraded to underweight at barclay's. it's the fourth downgrade this week.
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>> we call apple the tesla graveyard. if you can't make it at tesla, you go work at apple. what do you think of this? >> it's very funny. it's pretty typical. they're seeing a lot of pressure from google and apple and others. you know, moving into this space. he is probably right in many cases. there are probably few executives in space that can handle what's about to happen. so he is going to be angry about it, and at the same time say it doesn't really matter. >> what if they are taking people directly from tesla, because right now we thought they were hiring people more for software and battery creation. what do we make of this? >> it's a little more complex. elan says that it's a complex vehicle. it's not a watch or a phone or anything like this.
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this is a major undertaking if they're making one. clearly, they need proof no matter what, the way google did. >> google has made a car. even if you don't end up being the one making it eventually. i do think he had a fair point that you can't just get a company to make it for you. this is a very -- they have to be all in. >> they are worried he won't be able to manage it either. >> the stock is down on this barclays downgrade. cutting tesla to underweight from equal weight. the price target is $180, which is quite a bit below where it's currently sitting at $222, but the street can't really seem to figure out the tesla story because the price ranges, even with four downgrades this week, those four price targets cut anywhere from 180 to 450.
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>> you get to multiples, and it seems silly. some seems to be focused on the ability to increase significantly the size of their production. whether they're going to be successful in executing. >> yeah. certainly so far we're waiting on those delivery numbers for 2015. just a couple of months left. it would seem that they've got a long way to go, but certainly a lot of people are watching that number. next up, kara, live interviews and news from beautiful pasthum bay. the head of apple pay what's your big take-away of the interviews and -- >> yes.
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they're adding more and more big vendors. they have to get everywhere. i think it's going to work. i thought the interesting thing from google is they had observations about where they had positive push hard. the web search is not over, but he said that they surpassed -- half are now mobile. it has to be a mobile company. i thought tim cook was interesting talking about the link to verizon, aol where & trying to explain that deal. he had an observation about data now being oil. the new oil, and everyone has to think about it that way. whoever controls the oil is obviously the most powerful player.
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>> he went out with ver otherwison and, there's an enormous amount of data over the customer. how do you use that. google has enormous amount of data. facebook, others. the question is who can serve people the best, and google is saying they thought the research is really want about research anymore, but someone -- it was a little creepy. he said google search will now be an assistant to tap you on the shoulder all the time and tell you what you want instead of the traditional search board. it was an interesting -- it was interesting about where it goes in wearables. how do you search on wearables? it's not -- sdmrool all kinds of interesting applications.
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>> john chen said the company would be willing to ditch handsets if it came down to it. what did he mean by that? >> security is critical in this environment, and blackberry, for all its problems, has a platform that is very secure that a lot of people trust. he is saying we don't have to make these -- same thing could save ramen from swrau bone. he still makes devices. you know, if you have to have -- the question is who is going to control the software. who is going to control the data. >> who will control it going forward. >> finally, cara, today steve jobs had select theaters.
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the film getting pretty good reviews across the board. the reception from apple still quite cool. tim cook called it opportunistic. swrony said the portrayal was what he called heartbreaking. >> in read code don described it as a reality distortion field. how should we be thinking about it going into the release this weekend? >> well, you know, don called it a lot of things. it was a really good review, and i think walt will be talking about it too once he sees it. >> is it a great film about steve jobs or someone like steve jobs? i think probably it's a lot like the facebook movie, which was not a mark zucker burg i recognized, but yet, i know him,
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so it's hard to say. it was a great -- that was a great film, but it wasn't a great portrayal of mark zucker burg for a number of reasons. at the same time it was a terrific movie. he is not around to answer critics the way mark is. i think is apple doing anything about it? no, it's made, and the question is is it a good movie, and maybe it's not exactly the way steve was, but it's not really much anybody can do about it. sdmru make the comparison to the social network. there are a lot of pacing exchanges. some pretty insightive he putdowns as aaron sorkin is known to write. >> there is no big product announcement. it was the bravado he brought to the stage. he knew steve jobs.
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can you portrait him without one of toes big events? >> well, it's interesting. you know, steve jobs is a very -- probably more complex than many people in the tech industry. >> it's awe number of people, and he has a difficult personality. i think the problem with steve jobs is a lot of people in my opinion -- a lot of people said he had no heart. i think he had too much heart. you know what i mean? he was so passionate about the things he was doing that he was just driving towards them. i have a feeling the portrayal is super cold. i did not find him this way, but i can see why you would think it if you didn't delve further into his permit. you know, walt knew him. he was a man of passion and just was really intense passion. i don't know if you can portrait that in a 90-minute movie.
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>> well, we'll have to have you back once you see it and get your take, then. we appreciate you joining us. >> let's lower the issue price currently. up 26%. originally the company had prices between $16 and $18 per share. brought the price range down to $12 to $13 per share. even that sharp rise right there is still well below where the company had hoped to price it. we're not alone in having issues during this ipo season. according to deal logic 65 u.s. listed ipo's have been completely withdrawn from the pipeline. that number is up 51%.
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it's 51%. it's about even year-over-year, and begs the question what we're going to do. the question we've asked multiple times for the major large cap heavily leveraged ipo's coming out next week. why some of the expectations will be brought in. the one that was priced last night, and they were willing to take, what, 80% less. 18% to 10%. >> they raised $150 million originally hoped for $300 million. raised half the proceeds. >> yeah. >> coming up, the debate over interest rates not going away ahead of this month's fed meeting. bill dudley gives us the latest in a cnbc exclusive interview.
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plus, the fbi already issuing warnings about the new shipped credit cards. what you need to know. we'll give you that. and we talked about the steve jobs movie. we're going to talk to someone who lived it and worked directly with steve jobs. see what she thinks. more "squawk alley" when we come back. 6 idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running.
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. >> investors are digest be minutes from the fed's september meeting. let's get to steve liesman who is in new york with an important exclusive interview involving that. steve, take it away. >> thanks. bill, thanks for joining us today. >> great to be here, receive steve. >> let's get right to the news of where heed. a lot of people listened to that and read those minutes yesterday and they thought, you know what, september was really not that close of a call. in your view when you went into that meeting, was it a close call, and where are we now? >> i think it's not for me to judge at that time whether it's a close call or not. my own view was i wanted to see more information. >> there were questions about how the global outlook would affect the u.s. the economy was likely to slow in the second half of the we're.
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my view in september is it's safe to wait. >> the thing that stood out to me was the sense of eroding confidence that we're going to get back to 2%. are you less confident now than you were that that 2% inflation target is going to be achieved? >> i think. >> i hope so. i hope we have monetary policies that -- the key question is are we going to get sufficient growth in the economy to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate, to get acceleration in wages? we get that, then i'll be reasonably confident about inflation returning to 2%. the labor market developments in the labor market help us on the growth of the economy, how that affects the labor market and is important in terms of how confident you are about getting back to 2%. >> it doesn't take a genius to say that if you are looking to the labor market for confidence,
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you're not getting a whole lot of it. that last labor report was pretty lousy. >> it was definitely weaker. at the same time you get 120,000 jobs, 150,000 a mob. that's probably sufficient to continue to push the unemployment rate down all the time. the other thing is it's very important not to overweight one payroll report. payroll numbers have a lot of volatility month to month. let's see how the data unfolds and by data i mean everything. economic release data, what's happening abroad and how that's likely to affect the united states.
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>> how much can she reduce u.s. inflation? >> i think the direct linkage from china back to the u.s. is very small. we dwoent have a tremendous amount of direct trade with china in terms of us selling goods to them. if china were to grow, the affects on us are -- the bigger question is really how does chinese growth feed into commodity price weakness that puts a number on the economies and have a number of emerging market economies under stress. how does thatdown affect us? i can imagine if the emerging market economists as a group is growing slowly and the currencies are deappreciating, that's negative for u.s. growth and negative for u.s. inflation. we have to sort of fear factor that into our considerations. >> the conduits for that have been weaker manufacturing and weaker exports. how much concern do you have for
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those sectors of the economy, and how much do they play into the weakness you are talking about in the second half? >> i think if you look at the u.s. economy, you see a strong domestic economy. you actually see strong domestic demand and consumption is growing pretty quickly. you see significant drag from inventories, but that's going to be temporary. that will only last a quarter or two. you see persistent weakness from the trade sector. i would expect the weakness from the trade sector to persist through 2016 because the dollar is going to deappreciate. it's a mixed picture. domestic side of the economy looks really good. some temporary drag from inventories and more persistent drag for the trade sector. >> now let's talk about some of the upcoming meetings. is it still possible the federal reserve -- how about this? i don't want to give it that open-ended. is it likely the fed could hike rates in october? >> i mean, it's possible. i think, you know, the chair has said -- i agree with her in that everything is on the table. at the same time have we seen enough information between september and october to
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convince us to do in october what we didn't do in september? that would be the question i would ask. >> how did you answer that? >> i'm not going to prejudge what we're going to do at the october meeting. >> you use that as the basis. >> tim lockhart said the rate hike is likely in that year. are you in that camp as well? >> based on my forecast, yes, i am. it's a forecast. we're fwog get a lot of data between now and december. when i -- it's not a commitment. if you say i think it's likely this year, i don't think -- it's just based on my expectation of how the economy is most likely to evolve. you know, there's certainly a risk that the economy evolves in a different way than i expect, and obviously being totally inappropriate for me to not take that into consideration in terms of what i think is appropriate for monetary policy.
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>> there's enormous volatility in equity markets and even in fixed income markets. some have blamed the federal reserve. the data dependent regime that you are under right now is creating market volatility. do you think there are negative outcomes from data dependence that are showing up in market volatility? >> i don't understand why you wouldn't want to make your decision based on how the data afters your outlook rather than precommitting to some liftoff on certain. that would seem to be irresponsible if the fed is going to achieve its objectives and mac mum unemployment and price stability. i think it's important not to overweight the volatility of the market. if the market goes up and down day to day, that doesn't have big implications for the economic outlook. would i expect market volatility to go up, and any situation when the fed is getting closer to lift-off.
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a few years ago when the fed was clear when it was beginning to normalize monetary policy, data didn't matter very much. it was stronger and weaker. the fed was not going to lift off. now as we get closer to that liftoff point, now that we're at a 5.1% unemployment rate, the data really does matter in terms of how it affects the outlook, and so, of course, the market will react to that data much more now than it would a few years ago. >> i was asked this morning on the show, bill, if there was a chance that there would be additional quantity takive easing. is there some probability of that if the economy weakens again? >> i mean, you never want to say no to anything because obviously we have full panamlay of tools that you use in light of changes in economic services. it's not something that i spent time thinking about at this stage. >> what about using negative interest rates as the next tool? >> it's obvious. we decided even during the periods where they were doing the poorest, and we were far away from our objectives because of some concern that the costs might outweigh the benefits.
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that said some of the experiences in europe suggest that maybe you can use negative interest rates and the costs aren't as great as you would anticipate. this is not a conversation i think is relevant right now. we're talking about an economy that's growing a bit above trend. the labor market is gradually tightening, and if we think that's going to continue, that's the key question. if we think that's going to continue, in light of all the information that we received, then we're going to -- >> we really have to go, bill, but i can't not ask this question. the possibility of a shutdown in washington and the impact there, is that something that an mates your policymaking right now? >> i don't think so. i would expect cooler heads to preva prevail. i think it's crazy to even think about not paying the debts that you are obligated to pay over time. yovrl we have to take the world as it is, though, and if it evolves in some crazy way, we have -- that obviously.
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>> an important voice with bull dudley there saying he has called in to be awe rated hike. it's about the commitment to doing it this year regardless of what the data is saying. >> it's his forecast. not necessarily indicative of what is going to happen, but how he sees it unfolding at this point. >> as they always say, the data will change, and perhaps they will change their mind as a result. >> although, he did say he is not spending any time right now studying additional qe. that is something the market will be listening to. up next on "squawk alley" the fbi warning those new chip credit cards might still be vulnerable to fraud. what you need to know in just a moment.
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the fbi issuing a warning that those new chip credit cards are still vulnerable to fraud.
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eamon javers is in washington. i thought this was spoeftd to be the make whole difference. >> the fbi issued this alert last night, and it fell right smack in the middle of a big and ongoing debate between the retailers and the big banks over just how secure your credit card should really be. remember that october 1st deadline you're talking about. all the banks reissued credit cards and got them up to this standard called chip and signature. here's the alert last night from the fbi saying "although emv, the new cards, will provide greater security than traditional magnetic strip cards, they are still vulnerable to fraud. now, the national retail federation saw that. they declared victory. they said we agree. they said we think the fbi is right on the mark. the banks in the u.s. have chosen to implement less protection. this whole issue is about whether or not we should have gone from the unsecured magnetic strip to chip and signature, which is where we ended up, or chip and pin where you have to enter a pin number. that standard is viewed as more secure.
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i talked to the banking lobby about this last night. they said they think the fbi's alert here simply doesn't make any sense because ultimately the fbi is urging consumers to use chip and pin, and that's a standard not available here in the united states. they have asked the fbi for a little more information on this. i have asked the fbi for a little bit more information on this. been on the phone with them this morning. as soon as we get some clarity from them, i'll go to you guys. >> all right. >> there's already the fear that they're there. >> when we did this and moved to the higher security standard whether we went to the highest standard, the fbi here appears to be saying no. a lot of this effort didn't get us to the top standard. >> eamon javers. >> europe closing just moments ago. let's get to simon hobbs with the action. >> a lot of green as you can see. the stock market rallying. we are off our highs in europe, but it's true to say that european stocks surge. in this country, the united states, we've had our best
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weekly performance in a year. >> ins country the s&p up 2.3 and 2394. a lot of this, of course, is based on what strl banks will not do moving forward. it's about the fed mark raising rates. you have minutes from the ecb talking about emerging markets. you have minutes from the bank of england about emerging markets as well. >> importantly.
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>> glencore will cut back on global zinc production. leading the broad rally we have in europe. i also want to mention as far as greece is concerned that we may be reaching some consensus on the debt load moving forward. >> 15% is high. it's as high as the imf is projecting, and we could reach 25% in service says costs by 2014. unless they did something about it. in the meantime, the greeks themselves or the prime minister explicitly this week dropped his call for a debt haircut. we're moving along on that track. finally, as we head into the weekend, i wanted to show you this. which comes from the pattern that has been filed by airbus for bunk beds in the sky.
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>> i would also add the problem for regular flyers and the wind under cabin prosecutor. >> have a good weekend. >> fascinating. >> yeah. >> have a great weekend. >> as soon as we come back, the film about apple ceo, she's going to tell us what it was like to work with jobs and if the movie really gets things right.
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i'm sue herrera. here is your cnbc news wrupt this hour. federal investigators say a broken rail that wasn't found on two previous inspections led to the fiery oil derailment in west virginia back in february. the csx train was carrying three million gallons of crude when 27 of the train's 109 cars derailed. to of those cars leaked crude oil. >> france says it launched a new air strike overnight in syria targeting an isis training camp. further strikes will follow. the french defense minister said
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that awes yad could not be part of a political solution in syria. a scottish nurse who contracted ebola in sierra leone is in serious condition after being riyadh mitted to an isolation unit in london. >> she is not thought to be contagious. >> pope francis entering today's session by a leading prayers for peace in syria and iraq. the general assembly of that gathering of bishops runs until october 25th. that's your cnbc news update this hour. back to "squawk alley" and kayla. >> all right. thanks so much, sue. we appreciate it. sue herrera back at headquarters. we have a news alert in washington. eamon javers. >> the news here congressman paul ryan has been followed around by camera crews and reporters here on capitol hill all morning today. >> his spokesman with another
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denial. the spokesman appreciates the support he is getting from his colleagues, but is still not running for speaker. we know there's a big effort to draft paul ryan against his will to run for speaker of the house. >> that won't stop the gop from trying to convince him from here on out. we will see how that plays out. eamon, thanks. the steve jobs movie hit select theaters today, but the film's release hasn't come withouts some controversy. some top apple executives have recently come out against it on the red carpet recently. we caught up with one of the stars of the movie who plays andy cunningham, a pr executive who took on steve jobs as a client.
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>> joining us now is the real life andy cunningham, now the founder of the cunningham collective, a tech marketing consultancy. >> yes. i'm thrilled to hear that. i met sarah. she's wonderful. she's a very talented actress. very sweet lady. >> did you play any role in crafting the script and the screen play and some of the history behind what eventually obviously became a fictional piece? >> well, as you know, the movie is based on the -- loosely based on the biography by isaac isaacson, and i helped walter with that and appear a little bit in the book. no, aaron sorkin wrote the script, and i think he did a fabulous job capturing a complex character that was steve jobs.
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why did he do a great job? how did he capture it to the point that you think he deserves praise? >> i think he captured the good, the bad, and the ugly all in one -- kind of in one fail swoop. you see the anger and the wrath of steve jobs in this movie, but you also see the tenderness that he had and it was -- he was that kind of a character. his emotions spanned the whole spectrum, and i think they did a good job in capturing that movie. the character, joanna hoffman, played by kate winslet, i think there's, like, 15 people packed into that character, and i think that that's the vehicle through which all of steve's emotions get displayed. >> there were three events, andy, that the movie seems to revolve around. the introduction of the mcintosh in 1984. the debut of the next cube in 19 8, and then in 1998 the i mac. what do you think was so indicative of those three events that led sorkin to choose them
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and portrait jobs through that? >> i think even though they weren't necessarily the most important products, although, but the mac intosh was, but the other were not that critical. they serve as inflexion points in steve's growth as a leader. the mcintosh was on early stage one where he was really very immature as a leader, but still very emotional all the way through to the final one where he had become a much better leader and a much better showman as well. i think those serve raz inflexion points to show that half of his growth over the course of that time. >> where do you think there has been such a controversy over the way that jobs's legacy is remembered? you say that this movie and sork sorkin's portrayal is wonderful. other people, obviously, don't feel that way. where to you think they're coming from? >> well, i think -- i don't really understand why apple is kind of coming out in that way.
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his wife, his widow is not in the film. she obviously should have been in the film. she played a huge role in steve's life. the technique that was used in this movie was so choose seven characters and portrait steve's character through those characters and not to include every single person. >>ist important to remember this is not an documentary. this is an alagory. it's a movie about a person, but it's loosely based on truth, but it's actually quite a bit of fiction as well. >> it's a character study. >> mark sdmruker burg would say the same thing about the social network. >> no doubt. >> andy cunningham on the steve jobs movie. when we come back, what a difference a couple days makes. go pro shares surging this morning. up nearly 4% after falling
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question. hitting the brakes. tesla falling on a big downgrade today. we talk to analysts hinted the call in our call of the day. kayla, we'll see you in about 15. >> thank you very much. we've all heard about global warming and climate change. i think what i want to talk about is data change and global cooling. okay? >> we have a real problem, a real problem if the climate or data stopped changing entirely and froze at one point. that is not the way is. william dudley, president and head of the new york federal reserve bank and when asked
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about negative rates and quantity takive easing, he didn't exactly have the same answer ben bernanke had with john a couple of days ago in an open forum. >> since it's always changing, and there are no rules, okay? we had a rule. handle on the percent of unemployment. the unemployment rate, of course, that changed. >> what really caught my eye, kwaupt takive easing and negative rates shouldn't be part of the conversation now, and i'm paraphrasing. that pretty much captures it. it also captures, i think, why i have no confidence that this group is going to ever pull it
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off. all others had been sloppy except for one. 2%. that's built in stone because maybe if you got a little bit closer or tested it, it would change, but it hasn't. here's my motto. short and easy with regard to that. okay? if we have 2.5% gdp gloet, my guess is you're going to have half the normal rate of price appreciation. growth and pricing pressure in a global economy where we're trying to control a little piece of it isn't going to have enough leverage. if 2% is your 3.5% to 4% economy, that may be 1% or 1.25%. all these things will be haut about. those mottos, they need an up
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grade. up next vimeo with original content, but he says netflix is not his top competition. he will be with us to complain when "squawk alley" comes back. [announcer] you're on the right track to save big
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the last months. the growing market of original content and consumers clambering for more, how will our next guest's line-up of original series stack up against all that competition? gary trainer, the ceo of vimeo. not a name we always think of when i think of original programming. why should i start doing some now? >> i think what vimeo is setting out to do is something different than the other streaming services you mentioned. now through vimeo, they can sell that work for any price they wish. consumable on any device. we've opened up a marketplace where we now have when we're investing in original program, we're looking to highlight and celebrate those same higher quality creator who's have made vimeo their homecoming to us from around the world and reaching audiences directly. >> who is making the decision
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about what's -- that's something as soon as we make internally with our curation and team. vimeo has always stood for quality. we've always celebrated filmmakers and createors who are doing something a cut above than what you might see on youtube or other platforms. so vimeo staff picks has long been a radar for emerging at that timent and vimeo on demand in our original program issing cut from the same mold. >> vimeo is an open platform for a premium cable-like experience. if youtube is open broadcast, vimeo as the open hbo or the open netflix of the internet. >> you have been making the
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quantity versus quality argument for some time. now you have netflix spending $5 billion globally on original content. you have viacomand youtube and hulu, which has reinvigorated its efforts. how worried do you worry about being bigfooted in this market? >> the key is to be offering something different, and the key distinction for vimeo is first and foremost, you know, we're an open platform. we're an open marketplace. it continues to march up market, and we're really serving that quality creator base that is able to sell, and likewise, from the viewer side of the equation, the ability to discover content that may be coming from areas that people are passionate about that they're not going to find through netflix and other services. >> you can ringle doorbell at
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hbo and say carry high maintenance for us. >> hbo had to skor that through vimeo. hbo did not discover that directly. >> they're looking to sell their work rather than giving it away for free. >> do you benefit financially from hbo's decision? >> we don't own a big piece of the show going forward, but we are in talks with hbo about distributing the program and will be -- >> a farm team for hbo? >> for our first project to go all the way to what's considered the gold standard of premium programming, we think it's incredible validation, and we plan to continue to invest in our future original projects where now that we see that the market is there, taking the leap ourselves a step up to even higher levels of production is absolutely something that we're prepared to do from a budget perspective. >> appreciate you stopping by. >> thank you, guys, so much.
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>> take a look. falling about 4% in just the last week. about 10% in the past sessions. of course, there is a big morgan stanley downgrade earlier this week. it hit a new post-ipo low on wednesday. morgan stanley cutting the price target saying weak sales of the new hero 4 session in 2014, it's down 53% this year. >> one that's had a good week -- jeffrey immelt of ge. having a good weekend. about a 10% move during the week in that stock since on monday when they tried to unveil the $2.5 billion position saying security was mispriced. well, it hasn't perhaps been mispriced now. >> you also have oil moving pretty sharply this week. above $50 for much of the week.
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energy having one of its best weeks in recent memory. up 8%. that's the market for a long time. >> many names, of course. >> we'll talk about that. as we continue on the east coast. let's send it back to headquarters and "the half." ♪ welcome to "the half." chief strategist at trading partners. our game plan today looks like this. electric slide. tesla shares falling this hour, and one analyst pulls the plug on the stock. you'll hear why in our call of the day. the great debate with energy up eight straight days and showing new signs of life. our experts fight it out on that or

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