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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  October 27, 2015 6:00pm-6:46pm EDT

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i don't know what more they need to do except put the $25 billion to work. they do that, the stock goes to 120, i give it an a. >> thank you very much. nice to be here today. i'm simon hobbs. fast is off tomorrow. but tune in for the >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you. call me or tweet me @jimcramer. expectations for individual companies right now are all over the place. and when that happens, you get
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some very exaggerated moves. even as the averages might not seem to be doing much. dow dipping 42 points today. s&p declining .26%. nasdaq losing .09%. it's all underneath the surface. the moves were all over the map and the volatility was insane because the expectations are moving to be totally off base in so many different cases. the best example, twitter. i've been telling people to cool it already about the stock. don't get too excited about new features or the new jack dorsey regime because the ceo just got started. this thing can't be turned around that easily. i even lost my cool this morning. it says people should just give the guy a chance and not bet on the near term. no, expectations got ridiculously high. many say jim if you do like
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three more periscopes can't that be additive to earnings? no. guidance is weak. things just got out of hands. stocks can drop to the low 20s in august. incredibly bizarre expectations for the largest company in the world, apple, which reporting this evening gave us good earnings. we got lots of whispers. there was a massive slow down in phones because some german semi-conductor said that business was weak and people thought the apple's business was weak. it had to be doing badly and that the apple could worsen in china. the narrative got more and more negative. especially since tim cook told me china was strong. once again it was wrong. that's why apple did a good number managed to put in a descent after hours showing instead of going down big as so many people had expected because of that thing, that dialogue
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company from germany. those were par for the wild course. the day started out outlandishly when we got outstouanding resul from alibaba. back on october 8th the stock up 67, down almost 50% from its highs leaving shareholders that bought it on the ipo and all the way up leading from the eye balls, founder urged investors to think long-term because the company is doing extraordinarily well. since then alibaba stock has been off to the races. when the company reported a spectacular amount of money this morning, the stock immediately rallied six points right from the get go. however then alibaba sold off. in part because the market slid but also because expectations were easily trumped and there was a second more important
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consideration. the stock anticipated this good news so with an excessive move ahead of itself. so in other words even though the expectations were blown away the stock figured it out. i was convinced if you buy yahoo! as a proxy for alibaba given it's stake in the company you get what's left of yahoo! itself after it distributes it's position to shareholders. right now yahoo! is being valued as though it's worth next to nothing itself. it seems nuts to me. i don't know if the expectations are high and the company delivers something that seems less impressive than wall street wants. that's what happened to t-mobile today. this company has repeatedly beaten the numbers. t-mobile shows some very good subscriber growth today but it issued a statement, more on that later, and people couldn't figure out, maybe t-mobile is still on fire. maybe the fire has gone out. i think the fire is still ranging but the expectations are
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all that matters on earnings day. coupled by it's own consistency it created expectations that got too high and got punished for it. we saw the same thing in july with helen of troy. i bet it's the same with t-mobile because the bomb throwing ceo john ledger did exactly what he had done before. put up terrific subscriber growth. always tends to workout in the end. just had to be harder to discern this time because of one time items. they're taken out of the stock along with hot money. i like the opportunity. particularly in an analyst downgrades it tomorrow. today dupont reported such a horrendous quarter that obviously gassed. it was horrible. it missed on almost every single one. especially with dow chemical. but duponts new management was even more appalled and basically said in a statement that everything was on the table. it would do whatever it takes to maximize value so the
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expectations were unfulfilled but management addressed the situation immediately. hence why dupont actually rallied 3%. it bolstered the already high expectations of an increased e-commerce set by walmarts decision to go all in. people look right through the near term just like we saw with disney. investors oo dodge. comes right on tv. i like that. "mad money" is back after the break. >> coming up, it's a leading supplier for some of the most recognizable brands in your closet. but the fabric is being stretched thin by a war on wall street. is this the opportunity to grab it for your closet? or is it too tight to fit? cramer is trying this stock on for size. next.
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i like this story because it explains how the business works. i want you to understand it. we can ask the bigger policy maker you know of. they got caught in a true cross fire with a bunch of analyst with different opinions. here on "mad money" we love these fights because the best way to learn about a stock is when you heard both side of the story and you have to make up your mind. first back on friday october 16th when the stock hit $30 and change that's crucial, credit suisse upgraded to out perform and raised the price target to the mid 30s. said it's time. however the same day they initiated coverage with a hold rating. it was a weak hold and much lower $29 price target like don't bother. so far the bears see this as really winning.
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especially since yesterday another good firm downgraded the stock from buy to neutral slashing from 38 down to 31 and that was 6.4% in a single session which got my attention and made me want to do this story. they have been punished brutally with the stock trading $57. and given that the company is reporting in a couple of weeks on november 12th, let's spend some time on it. figure out which side is right. might actually deserve to go higher or head back from where it came not that long ago but before we go into the bull and bear thesis let me give you a better idea of what gilead actually does. this is an apparel company and that's true. they make t-shirts, sport shirts, hosery, shape pear. they make their own clothing under different brands. as well as licensing brands from
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other companies. for example they make under armour branded socks and new balance branded t-shirts. then there's what they call print wear. where they make basic undecorated t-shirts or fleeces or sweatshirts and then they sell them to screen printers or emotio that decorate it for a whole line of sports teams, charities, churches, entertainment promo r promote promoters, you name it. if you have one with something like this, that shirt was probably made by gildan. you might not have known this but this is the kind of thing that's imbedded in your wardrobe. by the way, i think that we should have these and on the back it should have the standings. but why do you think? more important for the purpose of this you may not know that it's been one of the best performing stocks in the last four years. it rallies from $9 in 2011 to 35
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in july. in fact, like no other in the group. which makes this difference of opinion all the more remarkable because when momentum loses momentum there's often no bottom. this has been put through the meat grinder. then getting cut to pieces thanks to the negative coverage not to mention the guide down last week from vf corp. as well as higher than expected inventories from underarmour and yes a disappointing earnings report from skechers. so let's start with the bull case from credit suisse. even if that bullish thesis doesn't seem to be gaining much traction right now. for starters the analysts like that the recent sell off had taken it down to different levels. then 20% outside if we go back to the target. but since then the stock has gone lower. maybe it makes it cheaper. plus credit suisse points out
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strong sales momentum and they expect major share in the brand underwear business. up to 10% by the end of the year. why are they so bullish? when they reported at the end of july stock got blasted and management said they plan to double the amount of places they're sold at by the end of 2015. that would be remarkable. it's worth noting that the same that upgraded a couple of weeks ago downgraded a stock at its high from buy to neutral and between the downgrade and upgrade the stock fell more than 5%. in otherwise, this isn't a bull. it makes me think the upgrade has to be taken seriously. we like price sensitive analysts here on "mad money." however it does look like they were too eager to go positive given what looked to be swelling inventories for all sorts of apparel now. or take the bear case. on the same day that credit suisse upgraded they came out with this hold and $29 price target.
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that's below where the stock was trading. a sell if you ask me. this is part of the branded apparel where the analysts believe that innovation and pro branding will define the losers and winners in the sector. that puts them at a disadvantage in the eyes of the analysts. i don't think it makes sense to lump the companies with nike and under armour which traded substantially higher. much more difficult to crash into nike or under armour's business. even though brean points out positives, they only don't like the risk reward or the fact that the company was was there. they sent the stock down 6.4%. the argument is that walmart, remember what they said? they blew up earlier this month with along with the weak results from major apparel companies
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that painted a bleak picture. this analyst points out that gilan must be struggling. walmart is the biggest customer. they don't like the inventory levels. they could have to cut prices and get rid of the inventory. i don't like that at all. it has a strong long-term story but they worry that the current environment is uglier. now you hear both sides of the argument. let me give you my view. at these levels gildan is trading at 14.5 times earnings estimates. that's not cheap enough to intrigue me with what's going on out there in the mall. eventually the stock is going to go too low to ignore but i'm not sure if we reached that point yet because i too am concerned about excessive inventory at the store level. who might contradict them. especially for a commodity
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clothing company. so let me give you the bottom line. i think gildan has a powerful long-term story. i like their shirts very much. but i think the stock takes more punishment in the short-term considering the weakness at the retail level and i think you need to avoid this one until we get better news from the mall given that right now inventories have us more concerned about retail than we've been in ages. why don't i speak to patrick in my home state of new jersey. patrick. >> booyah. >> i want to get your opinion on fitbit. i bought in around $33 a share. i wanted to know what is the long-term outlook for the company as a whole? i'm intrigued by the corporate wellness programs but i'm con s -- concerned that competitors would drive down consumer sales. >> fitbit is a momentum stock right now. momentum is weak but you said the crucial thing.
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you said long-term. long-term on fitbit. as a matter of fact i think fitbit has an ecosystem that is second to none and i think that if you have a long-term perspective you'll do fine. short-term, could it go to 32? absolutely. why don't we stick to my home state. why don't we go to john in new jersey. john. >> booyah, jim. >> booyah, john. >> how you doing? >> i'm doing great. how about you? >> i'd be better if the eagles were doing better. but that's all right. >> i keep thinking my daughter said, dad, it's out of your hands, you can't take it that personally. it's out of your hands. and it's out of my hands and i'm taking it personally -- okay. i'm sorry. what's the stock? >> short of fanatic. my question is on under armour. the earnings looked good but the
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stock was punished. >> inventory levels were elevated. they have a little more merchandise than they needed. under armour is a great brand. six months from now we'll say it's up. this retail environment is very, very hard but i like under armour long-term. i like it more long-term than fit bit. when analysts go against each other, guess who wins? you. i think gildan has a great story but avoid it until retail improves. much more "mad money" ahead. we have to find out what is going on. then i'm dialing in and explaining what is right for you. plus i might be gearing up for tomorrow's republican debate on cnbc. that doesn't mean i don't have time to take your questions. stick around, the lightning round is just ahead. oh my. stick with cramer!
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♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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>> we all know the price of oil is incredibly important to the stock market. down nearly another $1 per barrel in today's trading on the
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own. reversing the rebound we saw earlier this month. that's why we're going off the charts. he is a fabulous chartest who happens to be my colleague at real money.com as well as being the publisher of right view trading.com. got to get a view on two big important subgroups. and the oil service companies which have already reported. the last time we checked in near the end of september he made a bold call that no one i know was making saying that exxon was about to go up and leave it higher. man did he nail it? it's up 11% since we ran that segment. however with the price of crude not pulling back and exxon coming down from the recent highs he thinks we do have to reappraise the whole group. they're ready for a pause.
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a period of consolidation. doesn't mean the whole complex is coming down. rather than a sector-wide sell off he predicts a change in leadership. as the big integrated oils consolidate he expects that the oil service stocks which lagged lately could soon be ready to break out to the upside and start making up for lost times leading the group. first exxon and the other majors will trade sideways in the near future. look at this chart of exxon mobil. when we checked in four weeks ago he predicted that exxon was ready to run because it had been trading sideways. while the money fall indicators had turned positive. exxon went higher. this is a move where everyone thought it was going to be like that. no, he nailed it. higher. broke out through several levels of resistance and cross above the 50 day moving average. however at this point he thinks exxon may have encounters a
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ceiling of resistance. may have been able to keep the stock down for sometime. the 200 day moving average. which is a couple of points above where exxon is current tlading. meanwhile at the top of the chart you can see the slow indicator, that's an oscillator which is a tool used to decide whether stocks might be overbought or oversold. it's in extremely overbought territory. it's likely to run out of room to rally for at least the moment. the pull back should not come at as much of a surprise. i'm sure some of you are saying here it goes again. he's saying the stock is poised for sideways action. they move between the high 70s and low 80s. i think this positive. the graph at the very bottom that showed the performance of the market vectors oil service etf. everyone knows it as the oih in
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this business. what you're looking at is the oih versus the performance of exxon over the last six months. we can see the oil service index underperformed exxon by 15% over that period. it's by more than 20% in the last year. this is interesting. he believe that the dynamic might be about to change. oil service stocks he thinks are now ready to out perform in big integrators like exxon. so now take a look at the day lay chart of the oih. that's the oil service etf i just mentioned. it's a lot to like here even with the price of crude at the moment. i was was concerned down. you can see that the october and september lows are like a double buy. >> meanwhile, they broke up the 50 day moving average. that's the red. earlier this month and then pulled back to retest it. forming a bullish flag pattern
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in the process. today oih got slammed but the 50 day moving average, it held. that was important. it was a good sign. when you look at the relative strength index or the rsi, an important momentum indicator as well as the moving average, he like what is he sees. both indicators are in positive territory. that's strong momentum plus the accumulation distribution line measures the slow of money flowing into and out of a given security. it's above it's 21 moving day average signal. that reflects positive money flow. healthy buying pressure. all of these indicators sow jest that the big boys are actually loading up while everything else is going down. so there's so much negative charter. if it can break out above the top of the flag at 3150, get this, 3750, smooth sailing.
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in fact, when you check out the chart of the biggest and best run oil service company when you know i like it you can see this break out. it has already happened to them. missed a little built todit tod holding in. it's been similar to the action in the oha. you can see the stock made a double bottom again. this is very important in late august and early october you can see that they make that flag pattern again. but unlike that they broke above the flag pattern and the top of the flag has now become the new floor of the stock. that held during today's hideous sell off. this indicator is a 21 day average of the accumulation distribution line. it measures the level of buying or selling pressure.
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it's using this to get a sense of whether the money managers are buying or selling. in that case it's in positive territory. meaning there's still buying pressure. if you look at the top of the chart, moving average, it's showing positive momentum. yet another sign that they could be headed higher. i know this is contrary but you have exxon right. how high could he go? it could easily rally up to the 200 day moving average. that's 82. that's five points above. my view, you know i'm a big fan and i like how it's been aggressively able to cut costs here and i like the fact that it's too hard and they're merging. that could help oil service industry pricing like it did the airlines although remember fuel played a role. now let me give you the bottom line. the charts suggest while the big integrated oil, exxon being the best example might be due, the oil service stocks could be
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ready not to rollover but the war. this is a wildly controversial position when the price of crude got slammed yet again but remember the darkest moment last time he said there would be a rally in exxon. i wouldn't be surprised at all if he is right again when it comes to the extremely volatile or potentially very rewarding oil service stock. mad money is back after the break.
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that's right. preparations are underway out in boulder and tomorrow is the big day. the republican debate here on cnbc. i'm telling you this is just too important to miss. coverage begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern. your money, your vote. be there. i certainly will be. and now, it is time, it is time for the lightning round. and then the lightning round is over. are you ready? time for the lightning round. my home state of new jersey.
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herb. >> jim, is my dividend safe with etp? >> all i can tell you is they just boosted the dividend the other day. you may think it may not be safe but they did just boost it. hard to imagine them boosting it and then cutting it. let's go to case in texas. >> my question is about soufun holdings. right now i don't earn it but because of the attractive dividend yield i was considering it. >> but it's a chinese stock and i don't recommend chinese stocks on the show. not until i get more clarity from the party. if they want to tell me it's time to party down i will. the communist too hard to figure. let's go to merle in illinois. >> hi, jim, we'll like your opinion on dell tacos. >> everyone is buzzing about this stock. i can't get behind it. the restaurant stocks are
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influx. let's go to paul in virginia. >> a big booyah to you. getting read do celebrate a birthday in november. >> we'll be doing a veterans show here too. >> you guys are great. i love it when you do that. my stock is isis pharmaceutical. i've been accumulating it since march. how much do you think it will be worth? >> well, you're approaching it long-term which is the way you have to do it. buy it on big dips but the big dogs are still in big move. they go up really big before we can get comfortable. let's go to luke in california. >> how you doing, jim? >> real good. how about you, partner. >> great. so my question is about lam research. >> lam research is a buy and
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that acquisition was brilliant and i think you have to buy that stock right here, right now, and that ladies and gentlemen, that is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. we decided to give ourselves stickers for each feature we release. we read about 10,000 suggestions a week to create features that as traders we'd want to use, like social signals, a tool that uses social media to help with research. 10,000 suggestions. who reads all those? he does. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. it's back t-mobile's most popular family plan. get 4 lines with up to 10 gigs of 4g lte data, each. no sharing just $30 bucks a line need new phones for the family? get the samsung galaxy s6 for zero upfront, and just ten bucks a month. plus, get a samsung 4g lte tablet
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>> the telecommunication stocks can serve as a virtual clinic for stock picking.
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each one has its own distinctive quirks and opportunities not to mention pitfall unlike many of the groups it's truly up to the individual to assess which of the stocks fits you best considering the variables involved. let's do some teaching. first how about we start with this t-mobile because it is top of mind having just reported and because i interviewed the ceo today. t-mobile just moved from the stock exchange. calling out at&t and verizon as dumb and dumber which i always thought sprint was the headless bird that represents the most hilarious moment from the comedy classic. he had good things to say about sprint. more on that in a moment. ask yourself with the stock down 5.7% was his brashness justified? i think that today's declines was unjustified because while it
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wasn't a so-called clean quarter, so to speak, there was plenty to like about it. unlike ata which beat on rate estimates or verizon t-mobile gave you the solid customer ads and kept projection steady which i think freaks people out. a lot of the traders are so used to getting monster surprises to the upside from this thing. but i like it now that they're gone. i'm not a chaser of stocks and i don't like anything to buy on the run which is why i think this rare decline might end up being an opportunity for those that want to seek out t-mobile. here's a company that delivered another giant chunk of subscriber ads. 2.312 million now billed out it's network. that's important. keep that in mind and is still taking share away from the rest of the industry. the decline came from some one time charges and made it difficult to see how good the quarter was. however you have to look at the
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leverage here. once the big geographic spend is over, given the millions of square miles now covered by this network it's almost done and the profit numbers could be good indeed. the way they describe it is 305 million people, how many are covered? and that means that t-mobile is almost done. it's up 45% year to date. it's coming in here. it could be terrific to the growth seekers out there given the fact that it might be done having to spend those billions of dollars. how about the others? verizon's growing subscribers more slowly but it has gigantic cash flow and excellent coverage of the dividend. this is truly a bond market equivalent story. i like this very much. it's down more than 1%. as for at&t this one is tougher. the cash flow isn't as hefty versus a dividend with a yield with with better than verizon and even as the company raised it's forecasts stocks is down 1% for the year.
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i like that at&t bought corredi but he challenged me on that. at&t does make them more competitive. i don't know about that. but i do love my directv and i like the sales pitch that they're now giving. especially in an environment when you want out of market football games because of national addiction today daily fantasy. possibly more down side. more risk. maybe reward. because of that directv strategy. but if you really want risk you have to go for sprint which is next tuesday. up 18% for the year. i think the numbers will be good and more important if google or comcast, the parent company of this network or another firm gets in the game, these are all mentioned as dark horses and they could come in. i think you could see the acquisition of sprint or even t-mobile. the former if the billed out is more complete because it's so
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expensive and the latter if the stock fails to go higher. t-mobile could be a sitting duck with that subscriber growth if the stock doesn't go higher from here given that it's build out is almost done. so there you have it. there's menu. which one is for you. that's something that only you can decide but i can tell you that this menu is a terrific way to judge your own towers for risk. not to mention what you want out of the stock and your portfolio. stick with cramer. can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t has the tools and the network you need, to make working as one easier than ever. virtually anywhere. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. (vo) wit runs on optimism.un on? it's what sparks ideas. moves the world forward.
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>> nothing has changed. apple i want you to own it. don't trade it. okay? now tomorrow, 5:00 p.m. your money, your vote. i'll be flapping my wings and getting out to colorado. and i can't wait. i think it's going to be pretty exciting. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow. >> tonight on the profit... i go inside worldwide trailers, a custom trailer manufacturer in tampa, florida. and so is this essentially a commercial kitchen? >> yep. >> that's your serving area. >> co-owners struggle to work together after their nasty breakup. >> you're a pathological liar, is the way i look at it. >> i can't work with you. >> i have my work cut out for me. for me, it's all about business. >> none of it would've-- should've been anything except
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for business. >> i need to put the controls in place... my name isn't going on this if it looks like this. there's no way. >> we do track our money. >> but no, you don't track your money. and make sure these bitter rivals can work together. >> yeah, you got that right! >> my name is marcus lemonis, and i fix failing businesses. i don't know how you run your business this way. i make tough decisions. i can tell you for damn sure, you're replaceable

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