live to deutsche bank as sit due. that is the phantom you saw. john pryor on one of his first outings since he was appointed president. he is there with the co-ceo. they are in frankfurt. new strategy following the bank's third quarter results. we have had a couple flashes on the numbers so far this morning. we are waiting to hear which countries are on the block and which will get the exit as they scale down. photos are taking place as the press finally gets a shot of the

man in charge. more detail in just a moment. >> thanks so much, karen. one minute of trade under way so far. you can see we are around 6-4 ratio green to red. the stocks are up by 0.3%. a takedown from the fed statement last night. the fact that we do still have a life is a suggestion perhaps if the data allows them to do so they will look to hike rates in december. a whole lot of factors between then and now. let's look at the individual sectors. we have had the likes of shell this morning. is and a mixed bag in terms of their earnings. shell underperforming. oil and gas 0.7% here.

telco's. on the down side, just three in the red at this stage. health care, and the lower resources. deutsche digesting their earnings and barclay's as well. let's look at the individual markets this morning and see how they are opening up. relatively unchanged for the ftse. ah, here we are. led by 0.5%. unchanged for the french markets. remember, there is going to be a bit of a pickup based on what we saw at the back end of the u.s. session yesterday. 1.2% rally. expect a bit of a pickup. more headlines news out of deutsche bank. they are going to reduce the workforce by 9,000.

that's 9,000 full-time jobs, 6,000 external contractor positions by 2020. the axe is falling on more positions in terms of the operations that will close, uruguay, denmark, malta, new zealand. it will reduce a number of clients in cib by 50%. plans to eliminate 90 legal entities, architecture. it will dispose of assets with 4 billion euros and 20,000 jobs. it will wind down operations units by 2016 with a negative impact of 1 to 2 billion euros. it is very interesting some of the countries getting out of emerging markets. denmark, finland and norway. >> they are doing that because they are subscale.

i think that is almost certainly the reason. you may also have within this a bit of a view on the fact that the oversupply and commodities, that would lead you out of chile and nor a way. it may be back to the commodity discussion we were having earlier around credit. it is basically subscale operations they are getting out of. >> what can it mean if you are diving out of european countries? >> maybe they don't need to be a european bank. maybe a german bank with global aspirations. i guess we will have to interpret the strategy as we hear more. >> you spend your life chasing clients around the globe. >> yeah. >> and deutsche bank reducing the number of clients. we don't want you anymore in-house. >> yeah. but remember, if you're a bank, you need to put up capital to support clients, branch network.

i am doing it in the investment management business. but you can service them from a money center. we have clients all over europe. our basic operation is mostly in london, with a bit in munich and amsterdam. if you're a bank, you can't. you need bankers in the countries. there is more of a fixed cost for them i can understand this scale issue as they think about these smaller businesses. >> what about the job cuts? total job cuts projected to be 35,000. they have shy of 100,000 full-time employees. they could bring it down to credit suisse levels. >> i think it is very important. let's listen in. >> translator: i'm very happy to have the opportunity to talk to you personally here in frankfurt. actually, the topic should be our quarterly figures. but in the meantime, so many

things have happened that it's my personal wish and immediate to explain to you personally where we are and where we want to go. as you can well imagine, the management team of deutsche bank has spent some very, very intensive months. it was about and it still is about making the execution stretches of 2020 more visible and transparent. over the past few months, we developed clear and understandable targets on the basis of this strategy. with we defined which concrete steps we will take and who will be responsible for the execution of these steps.

and, please, assess us and measure us by these targets. this is why we also defined interim targets for 2018. because by then, also the regulatory environment will have changed. we want to make clear how serious we are about execution. deutsche bank does not have a strategy. we know exactly where we want to go. however, for many years now, deutsche bank has had a serious problem with executing the strategy. over the past 20 years, many strategies, targets were announced but hardly ever where they implemented in a consistent fashion.

also, the design of modern infrastructure did not keep pace with global growth. you know the result. if the short-term aims and objectives were met, this often was to the detriment of the long-term success. this has to change. now our aims and objectives might be less spectacular than in the past, but deutsche bank is to achieve sustainable profits and generate sustainable profits. everything in order to strengthen cost discipline, operational culture, and control systems. we have to reduce the complexity of deutsche bank. we do agree that deutsche bank

has to get more attractive for clients, shareholders, and employees. on the short-term basis, very difficult decisions become necessary, unfortunately. we decided that we will cut 9,000 jobs. please rest assured that this job cutting will be done in a fair manner in coordination and cooperation with our work's counselors. some of what you will hear today might sound familiar. this is due to the fact that actually the strategic direction was already set in 2012 by the then new management board team.

jurgen and i now feel that it's our, jointly with a new management board team, to continue on this path. it is our aim and direction that deutsche bank remembers its strength and generates sustainable profit. we want to be -- we want to work with integrity and be a reliable partner for our customers and society. now, part and parcel of that is that we live up to our tradition, the biggest trend of deutsche bank are its deep roots in germany and europe. yeah, that's correct, that in the meantime, we have been

generating our bigger share in hong kong, singapore, many other countries. we are, after all, the global bank. but germany continues to be our most important market. it must be aim not only to maintain these roots but also to strengthen them. and we have the right person to do so, christian sater. now you might be asking so far why i have hardly made an appearance in germany. as you might manage, the past few months were full of work, very intensive. at the same time, we continue very intensive dialogue with the regulators. this takes a lot of my time.

and this will also not change in the months to come. because this work takes a lot of priority. for me, it's a ceo's job. now, marcus will make a few comments on the third quarter. and i'm amazed that he manages to do so on one page. is that true? >> translator: good morning, ladies and gentlemen. before john jurgen and christian then take you through to more thrilling talk -- >> the deutsche bank's new ceo speaking about the plan fort future and their quarterly earnings. the stock price very volatile. at one moment down 1.4%. and the next moment 0.4%. i think it is a case of watching this one for now.

you can see year to date that stock higher by 10%. just to keep that in mind. let's look at barclay's. continuing to struggle due to the compensation costs hitting the bank posting a 10% in their third quarter profits after taking a 560 million pound hit for mis-selling effects products. the investment banks unit in october too. that stock down 3.3%. investors upset with what they have heard this morning. this off by 0.7%. they managed to deliver a 5% rise in profits despite problems in brazil, which has been a key focus for investors. and the depreciation we have seen in the year in brazilian real. the biggest bank relying on the south american nation for a fifth of its earnings.

down 0.7% not the weakest perfecter nokia and alcates. a deal by nokia in the first part of next year. we have nokia higher by 9% here. some of the stories for alcatel. >> earnings here is taking us back off script. let's get a reaction. mychal bell is with us from jpmorgan asset. and our guest host of principle global investors. in the numbers today you can see a mixed set coming from deutsche bank. barclays all reporting. it has well and truly come off its highs.

it reset lower so far. do you think there is a reason for investors to be more cautious around the banking center? >> in europe we think restructuring stories, cost cutting like you are saying from deutsche bank at the moment. and also you have the potential for performing in europe. in the u.s. by contrast, credit picking up nicely. we think that is quite nice. it will be positive for the banks. >> deutsche focus i think front and center. and the comments about importance in the german market. how do you feel about the comments we just heard? jim? >> as we expected, quite decisive on the costs in drawing from smaller markets. it is is clear, as you look at deutsche, they were overextended. they were in too many places. they need to conserve capital is

and to focus on where they can get the income cost ratio into the right place. so i think that's what he's doing. it is classic cfo work really. but i think it needs to be done on a company that's gotten a bit messy and overextended. you know, i would question with michael actually, you have a restructuring at deutsche bank. you have a strategy at credit suisse, new ceo at barclays. when you say you are positive on banks, is it really just a trading positive, or is there some longer-term argument that would make you commit for your investors? >> i think fundamentally banks are cyclical stocks. we're positive on the outlook for the european economy. the unemployment rate will fall. you have seen a stabilization in the housing prices and european economy. qe from the ecb. it makes us believe it can do --

>> it is important with cyclicals. we have been talking about utilities, the most boring trade. not that you get the same pay-out ratio. >> yeah. the return you're going to get from banks are lower than they were precrisis. part of the restructuring that we are seeing at the moment is can you get the investment banking side of these businesses to return a positive return across their return of capital. as you see that very much now in the focus, if the ceos are in place now to put that in place, we think that's a positive story and you can get positive returns from banks. then you have the pickup and that side of the business as well. and it's generating quite positive. >> isn't that classic, michael, in which the circumstance of the larger and more scale operators will have a big advantage? because returning over the cost of capital, that is quite top.

the cost to capital must be up in the 8%, 9%, 10%. for an investment bank to make that, it has to be extremely efficient and focused. would that not suggest it is good in investment banking? >> we agree with that. we think the last players are well placed. and the smaller players will have to focus where they have a niche and can carve out returns in a smaller area. >> which might be continuing bad news for barclays or deutsche, who are much smaller than goldman or jpmorgan for that matter stkphrfplt they need to try to focus on what they are good at and not all things to all people. >> we'll put it on hold. we have more earnings on cross over. how is it looking? >>. >> shell lower than 2%. $6.1 billion loss for the third quarter.

however, they did say they expected the bg group to compete in early 2016. the company expected to improve its profitability. a bright spot on the horizon. it seems to be a significant amount of negative news. capacity cuts and of course stripping back. we did see resilience to the oil price pressure. total have beat analysts's expectations. they dipped to $2.8 billion in the third quarter. it is is still lower by 0.2%. it seems that the overall market of total is one of the company that got to grips early on with stripping out that capacity and trying to cut costs. eni with a drop in crude prices. italy's largest oil producer. 8.8 billion euros. by 1% in trading.

karen. >> thanks, jewels. third quarter profits on sales of an insulin drug. flat sales forecast for the key u.s. market. let's get to the cfo and executive vice president on the line for us. there was a comment that a lot of investors seized upon for prices for the diabetes treatment to stay flat in the states for this year and next. what are you seeing on that front? >> yes, it's great. when we look at our u.s. prices on a net basis, the net effect, increasing of prices and the additional rebates we are giving, we assume our prices in 2015 and also going into 2016 will be neutral for the u.s. market, which is approximately half of our sales. >> sales volumes seem to be a compensating factor that are expected to increase next year.

>> that's correct. especially for our gop. vick toe swra, we are seeing a strong market growth. that is the key driver behind the overall diabetes care franchise. >> i will just ask you to talk us through the importance of the fda's next approval for the next generation drug atresiba. >> we are very optimistic. if we look at other markets where it has been introduced, we have seen the product in just over two years taking 30% markets. it is an ability for us to significantly grow our diabetes care franchise in the only segment in insulin is where we have been wait. we have a very predicting long-acting insulin that makes

life easier for people with diabetes. >> the timing is important as well. you are expected to launch the first quarter of next year. a two-player market rather than a three-player market with eli lilley. that will be advantageous too, right? >> that's right. we will have the first focused launch in late 2015 and full scale with our mobile 2000 medical reps in january 2016. that's a great opportunity and primarily with the private insurers in 2016. >> it looks to many of us as if the -- you really can't tell at this distance. but maybe let's assume that hillary clinton is the most likely next president. and her advisers have recently been quite aggressive in talking about drug prices in the u.s. is that something that could undermine your case maybe three

years out? i quite appreciate that a new administration can't have any real impact until 2017, 2018. but is that something to be concerned about in looking at medium term plan something. >> i think when you look at medium term planning, yes, you have to take that into consideration. we saw when obama was introduced one and a half year after we had the effect of the affordable care act, which had a significant impact on prices in the u.s. so, yes, further changes will occurment i do see that the current market in the u.s. in the diabetes care space is very competitive. and on niche pricing basis we are seeing flat prices. so i do feel that the competitive environment in the u.s. is very healthy. i also do feel that it's important that products like tresiba is can obtain a sphraoeut and that's how we price the market. >> thank you for joining us

today. we appreciate your time. onto to the rest of the health care sector. what are you saying with sanofi? >> just shy of 4%. a better than expected quarter for third quarter profits for its key diabetes market. they did cut diabetes sales forecast through 2018. i think that is clearly that's a real concern given the emesis on revenues and profits. bayer beats quarter three profit, jump issing 21%. it did lower its outlook for its year on shifting fx sales. 1.4%. let's do an about-shift and move on to aerospace and aircraft.

lufthansa, after strong demand pushed up third quarter profits. however, the airline has warned of increasing pricing pressures next quarter. moving away from the strikes we are seeing, not so the case for air france klm. third quarter profits coming above analysts's expectations. profits almost four times higher than the same period last year. that period was impacted by pilot strikes. you have to bear that in mind when you do the comparison. the company cfo was telling cnpc earlier it needs to gain union's for its restructuring plans to compete with viable airlines going forward. >> we do everything we canning to reach an agreement. you know that we have already reached an agreement for phase one. we have to start again for phase two. but this will be done in the year coming.

and air france, as you know, we have decided to launch our network. the first phase in '16 will be implemented. but a big chunk has to come in 2017. >> staying with us, mychal bell of jpmorgan and our guest host jim of principle global investors. lufthansa telling us the fuel bill is coming down at the ages. it had such an enormous jump in the oil price. it is not coming off all that much for the sector. >> i think this is really what an analyst would have to delve into this understand these companies. all the airlines buy their fuel a year or so ahead. so if it's a year, then they are only just now getting to the point where their prices come down. and the hedge accounting, the facing of fuel buying has got to be really important for an airline right now. because the biggest input is in

price. >> the bookings, the fuel, strike action. >> we think that's exactly right. that actually the benefit from the fall in the oil prices for these airlines. therefore, there is potential for meaningful up side. european airlines in particular could be ready for takeoff. you have unemployment coming down. that will boost bookings. and you have this additional boost from the fuel prices as well. we. >> you don't know what oil prices are going to go down the track and go down to sphere. you might have one year where the price remains low. then it could bounce back. so you have a hedging policy further on. you are quite exposed fluctuation. >> yeah. an airline, if they are going to keep their business steady on a 12-month view, they almost have to hedge even if they think the

price is going down. because you really can't take a risk of getting such a big input moving in a volatile way. personally i think oil will will stay quite weak, but that's not point. >> we will continue this after the break. >> the blows have been dealt and the dust has been settled. the winners and losers last night from last night's debate. stay with us. we're back in two.

cryan cuts job and exits 10 countries as part of a major strategic overhaul. >> translator: deutsche bank does not have a strategy problem. however, for many years now deutsche bank has had a serious problem with executing the strategy. in sit into incoming barclays

jes. a tale of two majors. shell's profit falls short of expectations as the ceo says it is making "difficult decisions due to the low crude price ". total says the french firm is proving resilience. and republican texas senator ted cruz takes aim at the flmc during the cnbc debate. he said its priorities are out of line. >> i think the fed should get out of the business of trying to juice our economy and simply be focused on sound money and monetary stability. >> markets in europe have now been open for just over half an hour. a bit of a switch in terms of just what's leading this market. the buyer now seems to be the down side.

it looked like the futures were indicating a higher open, picking up from what we saw overnight. that rally into the close after the fed statement suggesting there is still a green light. an option for the fed to hike in december. a bit of head scratching. how can they decide to hike rates in december when the economy as a snapshot looks weaker than september and they weren't able to do it back then? we will continue to ask all these questions throughout the show. technology, nokia, stronger performance for profits in the third quarter. also announcing a 4 billion euro share buyback. we have retail also in the top side. key focus, a lot going on in the oil and gas sector. shell and total on the down side for shell investors.

disappointed with the numbers. total beating expectations. a similar story here. deutsche bank higher. barclays under pressure. down 3.6%. a mixed bag here. >> unexpectedly hawkish statement alongside to hold rates. u.s. central bank down played the fragility of global growth. the index soared. one other trade worth noting is the fixed gauge. didn't see much movement. if anything, to the down side. similar pattern coming up to the september is meeting. investors were cautious what they might say. we saw the volatility index fall. would a rate hike be positive for stocks? >> i think it could be positive

for some stocks. those who think the rate hike is next year or the second half of next year, we are looking at two things. one was look at the labor market, which is tightening up nicely. job creation has been fine. that actually would point to raising rates soon. the fed has been saying we want inflation to be 2%. that is not going to happen. there are just too many deflationary impacts over supply issues in the world economy. the significance i think of yesterday's comment from the fed is the labor market is still there as a criterion. they were downplaying. i think it is that as much as the global growth issue. on the global growth issue, my belief is and has been a while. to see a strong dollar as much as anybody think. i think what the u.s. exports being aerospace, technology, software, entertainment content, all the things the u.s. is known forex porting, those are not

very price sensitive. so i'm not worried about a stronger dollar as some observers were and as the fed were in december. >> i think very much for a rise in december on the cards here. we think it is more likely it happens in december than not now. clearly less concerned about sort of problems from outside of the u.s. than they were previously. if you look at the labor market, initial jobless claims are the lowest they have been since 1973. the unemployment rate will continue to fall. >> i asked this question earlier, how important consensus would be at the fed. we had one in the decision. jeffrey lackow was not on board. if the market doesn't get a clear call around the decision that all the members are around a rate hike, wouldn't be negative for the market? >> well, i think it depends how

much. the fed's history is vigorous debate. then the chair makes the decision. it is really down to janet yellen. she won't move until she feels she has enough consensus. to me the really interesting thing now is the profile of the raise after the first raise. at the end of 2016, i wouldn't be shocked to see 50 to 75 basis points range. this is not going up fast. people have looked to past tightening cycles i don't think this one will be anything like that given the deflationary impacts around the world. >> investors coming into this meeting weren't pricing anything. 50% price now for december. >> that's right, julia. it has adjusted. you know, this is a very foreign

environment to many bond managers who have been acted in a period of high yields. i would not be shocked to see on a two-year yield, the yield curve going to almost flatter two. i think the yields are going sharply up is really -- it is going out of the consensus. and i think that's right. and i expect to see it -- >> but adjusting expectations would suggest that we're ready for action but we may not get them in december. if they don't go in december, don't they lack correct if they miss september. and then december. >> if you look at the snapshot in september it was a weaker economy. they couldn't hike then. why can they hike now in december? >> they care more about the labor market than they care about the markets. labor is -- >> actually, that's the point. the pace of job gains is slower. if you are looking at the data that was seen, the durable goods

were weaker. the economy is not in a better position today to hike rates than it was in september and they chose not to. >> the impact of the strengthening dollar, they will understand more about that. and my view is they will come to the view that the stronger dollar is less negative for u.s. growth than perhaps people feared. that's what i think might change. so in balance i would suggest they probably will raise rates in december. >> both sides of the phelps. the point has been internationally global investors are saying the fed lacks leadership. michael, do you think that's a key point for you? >> we think they will in december. we agree with you. the pace is going to be slower. what you are seeing is a world where you have high monetary policy i did srurpblg

divurgence. >> the monetary cycles are out of sync. >> they could raise interest rates at a slower price than they would otherwise. >> that's right. >> we saw the rally towards the back end of the session. 1.1% gains across the board. you can see some of the steam coming out of those markets, indicating lower. 6% for the s&p 500. just worth noting. a few hours until the u.s. markets open. we must thank michael for joining us. jim is staying with us. this morning we have a lot crossing out of deutsche bank. i want to recap on some of the news that has come out of the bank. in particular, jobs have been going. many key markets will be exited from the bank as well. so basically the ceo is saying we do not assume that 2016 and

2017 will be strong years. this all coming through in a news conference talking about the strength of the german business. a lot of criticism that deutsche bank strategy has been wrong. addressing that specifically, john cryan, there is not a lot of problems with the strategy. but exiting that strategy where the issues have been. and extra provisions for a scale in russia. this is just the latest that deutsche has been facing. so the latest there on that front. and if i could just point out how the shares are doing, they have been negative or weaker in the trading session. and i could just show you the performances, 1.1%. one of the emerging markets is where the exit is coming from. smaller markets operating. but also some of the mainstream ones in europe. denmark, for instance, is on the block.

norway. >> job cuts, 35,000 where they have just is shy of 100,000. that's a huge statement, isn't it? a third of your workforce. >> it is huge. although they are taking five years to do it. you wonder what that will do to morale and productivity now that it has been announced so far in advance. he talks about the strategy being fine. isn't the strategy to have been everywhere in the world and that's what what they are retreating from? to me it sounds like change of strategy. he can categorize it as execution. but in a way, deutsche bank has had a split personality. it has been a german bank. it has been trying to be a global bank like jpmorgan. >> they say even in terms of a culture there is a sense they are very much rooted in the old traditions of the german bank. if you're not part of that original boy's club in a sense you are left out.

>> yes. >> there is a sense of a culture problem they need to break away from. >> the strategy was the old ceo's fault but it was a pat on the back. >> you have to parse what he says in terms of creating enough space to do what he wants to do. i'm sure that's right. the supervisory board, he will need their support. that's really where that's going. i do think this is a change of strategy. it is germany's bank with enough international connections to help their german customers abroad. that seems to be where they are going rather than being this great global entity. i agree with you about the culture, by the way. this is always difficult when you have a strong market and you're trying to be global. it means diverse, inclusive. that's difficult. >> bonuses from the ceo john cryan saying it will be

acceptable not to share some of the consequences of poor behavior at the bank. employees's job and security, bonuses, potential cuts as well. very interesting trying to get people on board as you turn the business around. >> the execution on on the whole talent management is going to be absolutely crucial. he sounds as if he's on it. but that is something that we need to watch. >> all right. we have to take a quick break. up next, you should be showing up to work. jeb bush goes after former political ally marco rubio. more from the cnbc republican debate straight after the break. stay with us.

the top 10 polling personalities squaring off in boulder, colorado. marco rubio was largely viewed as coming on it on top. cruz and trump managed to land big blows. some of the candidates took shots at the fed for "overreaching." >> on wall street, it is doing great. the top 1% are at a higher share of our income than any year

since 1928. i think the fed should get out of the business of trying to juice our economy and simply be focused on sound money and monetary stability, ideally tied to gold. >> i think it is precisely because of the arrogance of someone like ben bernanke who now calls us all know-nothings. the organization as powerful as the fed comes in and lobbies against them on the hill. i would prevent them from lobbying. i don't think the fed should be involved in lobbying us. i think with he should examine how the fed has really been part of the problem. >> the most confrontational moment of the debate, jeb bush and marco rubio went head to head. >> marco, when you signed up for this, this was a six-year term. and you should be showing up to work. literally the senate, what is it like a french workweek? you get three days where you have to show up? you can campaign.

or just resign and let someone else take the job. there are a lot of people in florida living paycheck to paycheck. >> i don't remember you ever complaining about john mccain's record. you only reason you are doing it now is because we are both running. >> some saying trump won. some saying the moderators might have been asking questions that were not right for the candidates. some were designed for the candidates to spar rather than their issues. i take issue with that. they never take the questions. they always want to go with what they want. i'm not entirely sure we should be saying it wasn't the moderator's fault. this is the highest echelon of political debate here.

>> if you bring out the differences between the candidates, isn't that the serious intent to debate? shouldn't cnbc get some credit for that rather than a debit. i think there was good, solid differences brought out. now, on the federal reserve, ted cruz was frankly talking nonsense there. there are millions of people in work who have been in work because of the economic growth. and the fed at least stimulated that economic growth. this is not a 1% issue. this is millions of people in work. if congress had done something to help, we might be at an even better state. i would actually say that congress are the people who have been asleep at the switch in terms of stimulating growth the last two or three years. >> is it because they haven't been able to get anything through congress? there has been so much grid lock that policies has been a challenge under the obama administration? >> yes. but if you look at history, one

of the best periods on of growth is when we had the clinton administration, president bill clinton. we may have to make that distinction soon. with newt gingrich leading the house, the republican house. that was a constructive debate. it can still happen. maybe there's some kaop accommodations. we will need them to reach across the aisle. >> very interesting we heard from two key politicians from southern areas, florida in particular, where you do have a lot of hispanics. that's been one area where employment has been an issue. to have a focus on florida senator to governor to be at the highest level of politics would that be welcomed for the politics story? >> i think it depends what their national policies are. if you look at the republican field, you have the outsiders, who have not been politicians.

mr. trump, dr. carson, ms. fiorina. they are the outsiders trying to bring a technical business expertise, i suppose. but the serious policy people are mr. bush and mr. rubio. in a sense it is more about who the serious policy people are rather than the florida allegiance. >> i want to go back to some of the dysfunction. janet yellen looks at the monetary policy and the fiscal policy support is if things goes wrong. and she realizes she is entirely on her own here. it is certainly an argument not to go in december because she is the last woman standing. >> the fed people can't sound off about how on their own they are. but i would similar thaoeuz with them. in terms of getting the economy going recently, the action has been all on the fed.

it is not as bad as europe, though, where the governments are acting almost consciously against the ecb in terms of tractionary fiscal policies. the u.s. doesn't have that issue. but it has a degree of dysfunction. the fed in a sense has been on its own. >> coming up to an election year, a significant amount of uncertainty. particularly when you have a potential change in party, not just a reelection or the status quo. this can be potentially a hamstring factor for many stock prices. i can it is 1% they typically go up in those areas versus 10% in reelection. throw it a fed that could be hiking. it could spike numbers in 2016. >> it could. i do think, though, on the election the market has been a paying remarkably little attention up until now. there has been a lot of radical

things said. and the market hasn't been fearful. we are getting close enough to the election. we have be done to see it with the drug sector hit by comments from the hillary clinton camp. but i think we need to watch the debate increasingly once you get into the primary season. that's with when the market will start to be influenced. i don't think it will be in the end a negative influence. but fixing the nominees will mean that they have to appeal to the base. and that won't be market friendly. >> i mean, trump has led the republican field now for 130 days. we have 96 days i believe until the iowa caucus. just in terms of the result that we saw last night, and i think the overriding belief is that rubio did win this, what we saw from carly fiorina, it didn't help her at all in the polls. who is best placed do you think to draw support away from donald

trump, draw support away from ben carson i guess if we're looking at the most populist elements of the things they are talking about. >> it looks like mr. rubio. >> yes. >> it really does. having said that, it is just highly uncertain at this point. you know, maybe mr. trump. maybe dr. carson will win iowa. we don't really know. it is a tiny electorate. winning in the early stages can make a difference to the campaign. if i look at the general election, the scenarios the market would like, serious policy people on both side, rubio versus clinton, that would be a general election the market would not find disturbing. you could see with the appeal to the base a general election the market could find really quite dangerous. car son versus sanders. and we don't really know yet. we have to watch what happens as

the process happens. >> he is tapping into something in public sent isment that should not be ignored. >> they're right on one level. a lot of it it is to do with the economy. you know, the disfunction in washington has contributed to that. >> absolutely. who do you think won the big cnbc debate? cast your vote in our poll were. we would like to hear from you. paul ryan is the gop's official nominee for house speaker after he won a secret ballot yet. he is expected to be elected to the roll thursday. negotiating a spending bill by mid-december. thank you for his correspondence. bush was lackluster.

war son surprisingly quiet. trump continues to appeal toment. we are still taking your correspondence at cnbc.com. jim, let's get a takeaway message. it has been a busy 24 hours. job cuts on the banking tech tore. what's the most dominant thing for you talk to go your investors? >> i would say it is to focus on what matters to investors, rather than a lot of near-term noise. what i would suggest is that the u.s. economy, the u.s. private sector, continues to be very strong. that is what has driven the market up. so i would a argue that next year -- there will be a lot of noise. the u.s. private sector goes into next year in very good shape. i would stick with u.s. equities. >> noted. jim, we have a little bit more crossing on the data front today. german adjusted jobless total is down 5,000 positions to 2.78

million. in terms of the seasonally adjusted jobless rate, unchanged at 6.4%. comment on this. >> i think you are seeing europe fairly lackluster. zero growth give or take. one thing i'm watching apart from the ecb -- i don't think the ecb can do it on their own. you have to look at government policies and whether they are more expansion friendly. and the restructuring of the banks is important i could get more optimistic if that works well. >> fantastic conversation. that's it for "squawk box".

hi, everybody. good thursday morning. welcome to worldwide exchange. i'm susan lee. the heat is on. cnbc republican debate sees marco rubio steal the limelight as front-runners donald trump and ben carson are feeling the pressure. >> if we don't act now, we will be the first generation in american history that leaves it worse off for our children than ourselves. >> a hawkish statement as it keeps policy steady this month. deutsche ban