disconnect between the chinese fueled markets which are still doing well because the wealthy chinese are putting money overseas. >> robert frank thank you very much. >> thank you. >> thank you all for watching. >> it should be a big market close, watch energy stocks which are rallying into the close. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans here at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. we do have a nice little rally in the market today, small caps leading the way, the dow creeping back toward the 18,000 level, plus we had stellar auto sales numbers for october just released a few minutes ago. we will look at where this market may be going and where the opportunities may lie. >> call of duty meeting candy crush, act vision buying king digital for $6 building. we will dig deep into why we could see more american companies making such deals outside the u.s. >> speaking of american

companies making deelts, we have the latest on the u.s. telecom provider looking to expand into cuba. yes, they are now starting -- we are getting down to the nitty-gritty now, starting to see some deals being struck between u.s. and cuban companies. and this is a huge day for earnings. we have cbs, tesla, etsy, zillow reporting after the bell today. we will get you ready for those big releases throughout the hour. >> let's start with w. this act vision blizzard purchase of king vision. they spoke to us this morning about what's driving this deal. >> we're using all cash and so if you think about it we had a lot of foreign cash, it wasn't earning very much money. this is a very productive way to use our capital. this type of transaction shows that you can actually productivity put your capital to work in other countries. >> well, cnbc comment cater mike santoli joins us more with now.

we thought we would be talk about this from a far ma angle, it's candy crush bringing this to the fore today. >> it's not going to apply in every case, just because a a. company has a lot of cash overseas doesn't mean they can find a great asset outside of the united states where they can utilize that cash and turn it into a productive asset. i do think you're going to see more companies look for that opportunity and also it just -- it raises the amount you can actually pay. in other words, you have that tax benefit and it enables you to pay that premium if you want to. >> do you think they would have done this deal without it being outside the country so they could use that money that they didn't want to repeat reit. >> i would say probably but not definitely. maybe it does change the price you're willing to pay or change the mix of how you pay for t it could have been some stock. this is an all cash deal, a little debt plus cash on hand so it reduces the purchase price. >> there are two different issues at play. the one is the different

corporate tax rates between companies that are located in this country, companies that are located overseas and that's coming up with the pfizer al err again began. >> matter where you makes your profits you are tafksed at the u.s. rate although there are rumblings that congress could change that. these companies are moving ahead assuming they are not. >> there have been rumblings for a long time. there doesn't seem a lot of momentum in that direction. this isn't an inversion, it's not as as if act vision is looking to redomicile it's about that cash overseas utilize tg directly. remember when dell was taken private they had a lot of overseas cash and when it serves the ceos purpose who is buying the company he brought it back over to help with the purchase price. it's not that you can't bring it back you have to pay the differential in u.s. tax rates. >> do we expect more deals like this, then, whether it is an inversion or not? there's still a ton of cash

overseas. >> you are going to see a lot more deals, see a lot more people making use of their cash and accessing the debt markets when they can. the bottom line is yes. i don't think we see one a week but you're going to see people trying to find where this fits. >> meantime or especially this year we had a memorable interview with rand paul about this, he introduced legislation aimed at giving companies a one time break and bring that go cash back into this country. the problem is when you do that if you don't change the underlying structure it winds up costing the country money in the long-term. any kind $that we will get a one off deal or more significantly a total revamp of this if the white house changes hands next year. >> next year if we're talking about a new congress, a new administration maybe but i don't think we're looking at one of those windfall tax breaks like we saw under the bush administration in the early 2000s. that didn't pan out in terms of creating new jobs or investment. >> mike, thank you. >> see you next hour. numbers for auto sales in october out just a few minutes

ago. phil lebeau got the eye opening numbers. not too shabby. >> these are eye opening numbers. the sales pace for the month of october, $18.24 million that's according to the research firm auto data as we show you what the annual sales have been going all the way back to when they bottomed out back in 2009 at just over $10 million we are now on pace for auto sales in 2015 to come in at about $17.45 million. if that happens, if we stay at the rate that we're at right now, 2015 will go down as the highest year ever for auto sales in the united states. last month we saw double digit gain from the four largest auto makers in the united states, the big three and toyota as well and all of them did much better than expected with the exception of ford which came in lower than expected. still gain of 13.4%. what drove sales last month? a lot of the things we have been seeing over the last several months. first of all, suvs and trucks

remain red hot, the demand still extremely strong around the country in part because we have lower interest rates, people are able to afford the monthly payment, especially as they stretch out those loans and yes, we did see a boost in incentives, however, we should point out that as a percentage of the price paid for the vehicle at the dealership, we're still nowhere close to where we were 10, 12 years ago when it seemed like they were just giving money away at dealerships, having said that those higher incentives will get plenty of attention on wall street. shares of ford, gm and toit tachlt we've talked in the last couple days about ford rolling out a big incentive program starting today all the way through january 4th. within the last 15 minutes general motors announced that it is extending its military service discount to about another 23 million people, anybody who had a tie with the military in their family or at some point. so this is what we're maybe seeing from the auto makers. bigger inn sent tifts going into the end of the year.

>> which, phil, that, again, will go back to the heart of this argument. is this emblematic of a stronger economy and more spending power and financing or is it a sign -- it reminds me almost like leverage in the financial system. the incentives once you start to throw those into the mix they are often a sign things are getting out of whack. >> the difference is compared to ten years ago they had to keep the assembly lines going mainly because they had to pay the healthcare obligations for the uaw. they don't have to do that now and almost all assembly plants they are right now work at capacity or a little bit over capacity because there's still so much demand. you bring up a good point about incentives, but it is different compared to ten years ago. >> this wouldn't reflect the new labor agreements they have signed which are cost clear, no? >> they're cost clear but they are not so outrageous that you look at them and say, oh, boy, these guys are dead in the water. i have yet to come across somebody who has analyzed these agreements -- the only one we have for sure is fee at

chrysler, nobody has said this is an outrageous agreement. >> champagne at some dealerships, $18.24 million. thank you so much. >> big numbers. let's talk about all this in our "closing bell" exchange as the rally continues with the dow up 126 points, nancy tankeler is with us, and jack checks in from chicago today. steve, the rally continues. and i know there is a seasonal tendency that usually the first week of november is a good week, november is a good month but what do you think is going on right now? >> if you look at what we looked at in october, october everyone got nervous, we thought the buy backs weren't going to be there yet and then goldman put out a pc after october wasn't so bad saying 25% of all company repurchases take place in the last two months of the year so you have that tailwind of the buy backs back in place, earnings pretty much has

cascaded through those earnings reports. we just hit overbought which is an important level just off the record highs 2134 in the s&p cash, maybe you see a slight pull back, but i wouldn't be concerned just now. >> jack, have you bought a new car lately? >> the met up continues, kelly. going whack to the question you just asked phil a little while ago, you know, the consumer has started to show what they're doing with all the money they're saving with the price of oil being down. you're seeing it start to work its way into the economy but that's not the real story. the real story is that stocks have found new leadership. new tech has actually taken over. people are starting to realize that new tech is the platform by which all business will be conducted over the course of the next generation and it's starting to take over and becoming a market leader. it's something we cannot afford to miss out on. this is a generational shift. this is not y2k, this is not 2000. these are companies that are

making money and infrastructure is a service and software as a service. it's a big story. >> you played right into nancy's hands here. you came here to pound the table for old tech that you're buying right now, right? >> well, yeah, i mean, we've been talking about it since the end of the first quarter and even before as a value manager one of the things you do is repeat yourself often while you wait for things to work out. old tech some of which has become new tech. you have microsoft that is emerging in that cloud space and those stocks that we've been talking about have all significantly outperformed the market except for apple in that period. we continue to be optimistic about apple. i agree with jack, i think we are in a transitional phase, but i also think there is a lot of money still to be made in old tech and old biotech. >> what do you mean, jack, by new tech? give us some examples. >> think about the netflix, if i of the fang stocks and what aws is doing with infrastructure as a service. looking at the cloud being

commoditized, containers could be mobile and work loads could be moved anywhere around the world. this is a huge shift in the way business is being conducted and will be conducted and as far as old tech is concerned, i agree with nancy. look, there is a lot of value to be still found in old tech but watching some of these old tech companies turned around is painful. it's like watching an aircraft carrier turn around in a bay. >> jack, i don't disagree with you but i think the bigger theme at hand has been last month in october we saw materials, energy, industrials. those are the names that have outperformed and the true test is a lot of these sell side banks say it's not due to a short squeeze just yet. so what do you do now? is it a short squeeze that's coming baes going to carry a lot of guys out in a body bag? so the question is do they continue to lead because that's not really new tech just yet that's really leading. >> energy is up 3% on the session today. last word, jack. >> do you know what this is and steve is a floor trader like i am, this is what we call a tear

your heart out of your chest type of rally if you're short. all right. it just leaves no prisoners and that's what's happening. this irrational type of rally is not over yet. i have a feeling we could see 2300 before this year is out in the s&p. >> jack sees a rally that he feels is irrational. where is rick santelli when you need him? thanks, guys. >> thank you. >> appreciate it very much. a little more than 45 minutes to go here, the dow is up 129 points on top of yesterday's rally to start off the month, the s&p which yesterday closed above 2100 now trading at 2113 as you can see there up nearly a half a percent. the nasdaq adding 236 points, half a percent for its part. >> boy, will you be busy next hour. we have an earnings parade you don't believe. we have cbs, tesla, etsy, zillow, those are just some of the names. there are many others on there as well that will be reporting after the bell tonight. we will bring you the numbers the second they are released with our instant analysis. >> first, though, up next,

glaxosmithkline ceo speaks with us in a first on cnbc interview. find out which drugs in their pipeline he thinks have the biggest blockbuster potential when we come back. when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business.

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i'm a senior field technician for pg&e here in san jose. pg&e is using new technology to improve our system, replacing pipelines throughout the city of san jose, to provide

safe and reliable services. raising a family here in the city of san jose has been a wonderful experience. my oldest son now works for pg&e. when i do get a chance, an opportunity to work with him, it's always a pleasure. i love my job and i care about the work i do. i know how hard our crews work for our customers. i want them to know that they do have a safe and reliable system. together, we're building a better california. the rally for november continues today. the dow up 133 points right now, it is the best performer of the group. oil, energy stocks have been a leading proponent of that today as well. the s&p is up almost 10 points and the nasdaq up 27. meantime, gopro shares are lower today, the company with the exclusive rights to polaroid's instant and action products is suing gopro for patent infringement. the suit claims that gopro's new cube shaped hero 4 session is a

copy of the who will avoid cube. >> wow. and then i guess in their defense they're saying, hey, it's a round camera, you have to hold it somehow. glaxosmithkline today told investors it plans to seek approval on 20 new drugs in the next five years. the company says 80% of those clouds could radically change how patients are treated. >> we go to meg terrell who is the sir andrew witty. meg, it's all yours. >> thank you, bill. andrew, thank you for joining us. >> it's a pleasure. here on your r&d day on the first slide you have here that you presented to investors you talked about not only your exciting science will you but also the environment and you mentioned pricing. how do you consider the pricing environment and all of the attention especially in american politics paid to this i wish. >> you what we're focused on is generating returning four our

shareholders. we're trying to make sure we get a balance between returns driven by price but also returns from volume. the debate has been overly focused on price only. there are 7 billion people in the world, most of them in the healthcare industry serving 700 million. we're focused on a twin strategy, inn owe valt, get fair price reward and also make sure we are accessing the volume opportunity around the world. through tiered pricing internationally, developing our consumer healthcare business and vaccine business. so we think that gives a great return position and it takes some of the pressure off the need to always get the highest price which we think is becoming increasingly challenged and the politics around it difficult. >> are you concerned about the kind of attention being paid to drug pricing an some of the activities going on in the industry trying to achieve those high prices is damage to go doing research. >> absolutely. i think some of the focus on some of the behavior which have

really been, you know, beyond what anybody would really describe as reasonable is just unacceptable. it clearly brings a bad reputation and an overfocus on prices of drugs and drugs themselves. remember, pharmaceuticals are only 10% of total healthcare costs and if they're used well and they very often reduce downstream costs. in fact, a lot of what we focused on today in our r&d day are innovations we believe can prevent disease, put patients into remission or potentially cure them. the economic benefit of that is tremendous and that's where we should be focusing our energy. >> i want to ask you about one drug in particular you mentioned today, you're collaborating in hepatitis c with a company to potentially have a cure in one visit to your doctor. that's so exciting but it's such a crowded field. would you have to compete there on price? how do you envision your entry into the help too tight 'tis c world. >> this is an early program for us, it's exciting and we're leveraging two technologies from

ourselves and regulis and interesting science both in hepatitis c but also in hiv for long-acting drugs. we think there are ways in which we can change the course of disease. in the case of hepatitis c maybe even cure people with a one-dose shot. lit you go, get one treatment and you're done which would think a phenomenal offer. there is clearly plenty of scope in that marketplace for price competition, let's be honest. i'm not too worried about that. ultimately everything will revolver around the profile of the medicine and so far it looks very exciting. >> bill. >> sir andrew, clearly the feeling on wall street is that companies like yours needs a full line of portfolio to compete in a world where there is so much price competition and so much attention paid to drug pricing these days as meg pointed out. we're seeing companies starj start to merge can i point. you issued a no comment on whether you held talks with

pfizer, they're looking elsewhere now. are you convinced you can still go it alone in the future in this competitive environment or are you likely to look for a partner at some point? >> no, i'm very happy with our strategy that we've got right now. in terms of our focus it's all around skrugs. just six months ago we did a big transaction with novartus which essentially created a consumer business 50 or 60% bigger than the one we had before and allowed us to strengthen our vaccine business. as you may have seen and investors have seen in q3 the growth in those two businesses have starting to pick up and we are seeing big synergies come through from that transaction. today we talked about drugs that we could come through in 2020. in q3 as these different divisions are moving to scale as the innovation comes through to the marketplace we're getting

optimistic about our ability to deliver sustainable sales and growth over the next five years and beyond. as we look through to 2025 once we're through the next couple of years we don't see very many intellectual property challenges on our portfolio, a business which has got a lot of growth potential in it provided we can execute. >> just a quick question as well here on your consumer portfolio which i don't understand exactly where that stands now with regard to you and novartus but how important is it for you to have this portfolio including aqua fresh toothpaste and other things as opposed to being a pure play drug company going forward? >> so the business we have in consumer health is a joint venture between ourselves and novartus. we own 64% of that business, it's a terrific business, we control it completely, we've made a commitment that we are going to basically double the operating margin of that business over the next several years, at the same time being able to grow it in the mid single dimgt range.

it's going to be a very significant value creation there. it's important for us in a number of ways. first of all, within that portfolio you have the otc drug division, those otc drugs were once prescription drugs, it's a natural home for that to be in and that business also is a way for us to establish the grand of gsk. in many countries around the world healthcare consumption starts with the consumer product and moves into the vaccine and the pharmaceutical business. so it works for us on a number of different levels. we believe we can be a very, very effective competitor in that space and alongside the vaccine and now the pharmaceutical innovation pipeline we have essentially three businesses primed for growth over the next five to ten years. >> you sold your oncology business but even just today an announcement you are working with merck on a phase one trial in immune know oncology. >> first of all, i think we clearly have a strong, strong commitment to break through cancer their piece and that's what we showed today.

we in fact talked about almost 20 new cancer their piece coming through in a number of fields where we're clearly the leader. for example, efo genetics. it is a science about how cells are programmed to operate and what we believe we might be able to do is start to reprogram cancer cells to stop being cancer cells. this is a generation beyond the current immune know oncology assets. we are invested in that space. why did we sell what we had? let's call that the first generation technology asset. they were great products but very important medicines but from a different generation to where we see the their piece going in the future. we had a great opportunity to crystallize a valuation on that business bigger than we could have achieved by retaining t we took that opportunity but kept all of our discovery platforms which is what has been working away in the background. that's now coming to the surface. i feel in a great place because we have achieved full value on

the first generation, cleared the decks, i have no obligation to anybody to do anything in any particular way. i'm not a hostage to my past, i feel like a biotech company when it comes to oncology, i really do. i have 20 products in three or four big platforms, i can partner with who i want, innovate how i want, i don't feel like i'm in some kind of historic story. it all feels completely available to go forward and we showed data today which i think everybody in the room felt was ex siegts around very, very difficult to treat cancers, one of the six areas that we felt like we can build a leadership position. >> sir andrew, thank you for joining us. bill and kelly, back over to you guys. >> thank you very much. sir andrew, nice to see you. thank you four joining us today as well. we're heading into the close with 35 minutes left in the trading session, holding on to the lion's share of today's gains with the dow up 122 points. >> guess which us tell co company has signed the first

roaming deal to the cuban company. >> and, hey, how would you like to hang out with kelly and me here at the new york stock exchange. get your bids in now we're auctioning a visit to post 9 to the new york stock exchange to watch us anchor the "closing bell" and then we go across the street to our favorite watering hole for drinks after the show. the proceeds go to the lou lou and leo fund which supports arts education and creative confidence programs for children and their families. log on to charity buzz.com. type in "closing bell" in the search field and make your bid. hope to see you soon. looking forward to seeing everybody here. stay tuned. more "closing bell" after this.

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>> all right. some big business announcements out of cuba in the last day or so including from u.s. telecom company sprint. >> our michelle caruso-cabrera is here with more on what's going on in havana. >> there is a big annual trade fair going on in havana and this year there are a record number of companies there including american ones trying to do deals with the cuban government. for example, two entrepreneurs from arkansas are there marketing tractors they have designed specifically for the cuban market. they are hoping to be the first american company operating in a new industrial zone constructed by the cuban government. as you mentioned a company that already has a deal, sprint. the ceo was in havana yesterday signing an agreement which will allow roaming for sprint customers visiting cuba. this means if you are a sprint customer your phone will

actually work there. >> this was a dream that i always wanted to have and i want my sprint customers when they come to cuba to be able to use their mobile phone so we -- after we saw the u.s. government ease the regulations as it relates to telecommunications and we came straight out to do what i think is a historic deal. it shows that you can do business with cuba, you can do business with the cuban government snuk do business with the cuban government, that statement likely to cause ire with cuban american members of the congress who don't like the warmer ever relations and don't by president obama has the authority to do what he's doing. >> the toothpaste is quickly coming out of the tube at this point. regail us with this detail and how expensive roaming charges will be when we go to cuba with our sprint phones. >> sprint wouldn't tell us. we're pretty sure it's going to be expensive. 50 cents per minute as a get-go by the cuban government, verizon

has a deal, it's $2.99 her minute to talk, $2.05 per mega bite, your photos on your phone can be a couple mega bites it gets expensive to text and call. >> we will see if it loosens of the cast tro's grip on the country. 30 minutes to go here let's get to a cnbc news update with sue herrera. >> transportation secretary administrator pete 9/11 injury and homeland security john roth testifying on capitol hill about the latest security wreechs at tsa check points. security agents successfully smuggled in guns, knives and even fake explosives at some of the nations busiest airplanes during an undercover investigation in september. ohio voters becoming the first in the nation to vote on both recreational and medicinal marijuana, depending on that vote ohio could become the sixth state to allow marijuana for

recreational use. >> amazon offering paid paternity leave for fathers for the first time. fathers who have been with the company for at least a year will get six weeks paid parental leave. mothers will now also be receiving more paid time off under the new policy. and kansas city royals fans turning out in full force to celebrate their team's first world series championship in 30 years. they defeated the new york mets four games to one. ironically, the royals will open their 2016 season at home against the mets. that one is going to hurt. that's the cnbc news update. back to you guys. >> yes, they will call that game six, i think. >> they probably will. >> at least they made the series. >> yes, they did. better than the cubs could say unfortunately. >> you better watch out. jack and rick are going to come after you. >> o-e loo look at that -- >> i'm commiserating. >> rick santelli is on line one, i can hear him all right. >> i'm commiserating right now.

>> thank you, sue. >> a little less than 30 minutes to go here. 111 points higher on the dow, the s&p is up just about 8 so we are coming off the highs. the nasdaq by 22. >> with all these earnings coming up we have also next hour billionaire investors stanley trucken miller and carl icahn will be speaking at that deal book conference in new york city. we will take you there to hear what they have to say. stay tuned. much more to come on closing bell. here at td ameritrade, they love innovating. and apparently, they also love stickers. what's up with these things, victor? we decided to give ourselves stickers for each feature we release. we read about 10,000 suggestions a week to create features that as traders we'd want to use, like social signals, a tool that uses social media to help with research. 10,000 suggestions. who reads all those?

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we are in that final and critical half hour of the trading day here joining me on the floor. new york stock exchange is keith bliss with can a tone and company. so far so good this month of november. >> yeah, it is. we've hit the seasonal period so november is the third strongest month traditionally since 1957 and then december is the first strongest month. i will throw another one at you. the first week in november is generally the strongest week in

the fourth quarter. we're hitting the trifecta or double or whatever you want to call it for this week. >> you are watching one index or one category carefully and that would be the nasdaq. >> the trading has been constructive for the last few weeks. all the indexes have gotten there including the russell but tip of the hat to john co czar who told me look at the nasdaq. if you look at the asset flows that went into etfs a lot of money flowed into the qqq the last two weeks and that really showed us that it was going to rise. >> so as we head to the close here 2111 on the s&p right now. where are we for you on levels? are we getting close to overboat? >> we are not going close to overboat even though some technical factors will tell you that it is but we don't see it bought until 2134. i think there is room to move this this rally. let's look at tesla set to

report earnings after the bell today. joining us what what to expect ben cal low with a neutral on the stock and john thompson who is short tesla. welcome to you both. what's the most important number here? is it deliveries? >> yeah, delivery guidance could be very important. i think the expectation is that the lower guidance, i think that would be good for the stock because if they stick with their guidance people aren't going to believe the ramp so there's going ton an overhang there. second people need to get information around the model x. there has been a news vacuum since the 29th when they delivered the six cars, they have only delivered one since then so we need to hear about what's going on with the x. >> john, i mean, what would it take -- well, tell us a little bit about this position. you're short -- you know, is it because you think they are going to fall short of wall street expectation as soon as do you have larger concerns about their ability to execute over the next several years with the model x?

>> yeah, i mean, it's a combination of i guess three things, you know, we think the valuation is extremely extended, it's got half the market cap of ford or gm or honda, the revenue is decelerating, they have had flat sales of model s's for the last three-quarters. which tells us they are saturating that high end market and i think the quality issue is going to be a big problem over the next few years. >> by the way, our friends at ken joe typically happen what happens after the day tesla reports 75% of the day you get a down day in the price of tesla in case anybody out there is watching all that. do you have a price objective on the down side before you would cover? what are your expectations there? >> you know, we actually think the company is a very innovative company, they've built a beautiful car, i just think the stock is many fold overvalued. i think it's worth under $50.

>> okay. right now it's trading at just under $211 to be clear. meanwhile, you've got, ben, a neutral rating on tesla. what justifies its valuation here? >> yeah, i think that, you know, if you get down in the 180s it becomes more interesting. i don't think we see sub 100 for a little bit. we have to remember that there are innovative across several different industries right now. the people that own it institution nael over a ten-year time horizon, as long as they maintain that same course people are sticking with it and there are plenty of buyers down at the 180 level. >> although your target, ben, is 282. >> yeah, it's 282. we moved to the sidelines really because of this news vacuum around the model x. until they actually show that they can ramp it there is a lot of negativity around elon keeps saying it's the most complex car ever made. people take that as they can't produce it commercially. he is just bragging. when they actually produce it in the thousands i think you will see the stock move higher, but

we need to be able to ache some time for that is correct a couple quarters. >> we see how that quarter goes. thank you, gentlemen. ben kallo and john thompson who is short like many others. >> $80 is what he's looking for the down side. 20 minutes here the dow slowly losing a little air. we are up 105 points right now. up next, investing like a millennial. a new survey tells us how this age group is allocating its investing dollars or not. >> oh, boy. after the bell it's a veritable earnings explosion, we have tesla, also cbs and us steel, zillow coming down the pipe. we will get you those numbers on the "closing bell." stay tuned.

welcome back. a new cnbc survey shows where millennials are putting their money in this market. >> or not. steve liesman is back at headquarters with the results. >> you win that one, or not is the correct response. looking at millennials a special cnbc all america economic survey edition of millennials we asked them how much money do you have in the market and what you see here compared to all adults

where 50% have money in the market and that number goes up and down 47 to 52, you can see just around 40% of millennials age 18 to 34 that much discussed 18 to 34 group have money in the market. you can see the percentage that's below 50,000. you would expect this. they are a judger group, they have less money, less money in the market, but on the issue of are they optimistic about stocks pretty much in line with all adults here. about 30, 33% saying it's a good time to invest and just a little bit more optimistic, 35% of millennials say it's a good time to invest. one place where they are more optimistic when we ask it a very bad time. 15% of the general public, 9d% of the millennials. what about their preferences for where they would invest. again, overall conceptually here same ideas as all groups here, real estate is their top pick which by the way runs counter to this idea that this new group of

millennials doesn't like real estate. they do still pick it as the top investment but a lower percentage. gold is the number two, stocks number three a little bit less than all adults. look at this right here, you can zoom in on the savings accounts and cash and other instruments, this is where we show them to be more risk adverse than the broader population. 21% picked that as their top investment compared to 14% of the broader population. it's not a great time for them to be risk adverse because it's the time when we talked to some financial experts they say they should have a big chunk of their portfolio in stocks and the issue is the financial crisis and the effect that's are had on millennial psychees. >> i'm worried about the second column, gold. >> we have been surveying all adults on this for a very long time, kelly, and gold is the perennial number two going back and forth with stocks in competition for that number two spot. >> i've often said when my kids

are in the millennial generation and they went through the financial crisis and like my parents who went through the depression, they came out very, very risk avers. i know you agree with that. >> absolutely. i think we share more characteristics with that older generation than our parents. >> this is a broad study we did and this issue of is this a petulant disgruntled group of lazy youth. we don't find that at all. we find the opposite. we find they are more satisfied at work, we show the things that they're looking for are very similar to the rest of population. we have a hard time distinguishing them as a kind of very distinct group other than their youth which distinguishing them and i think this business of this unique millennial generation is perhaps a little overblown according to the data i've seen. >> i don't say they're lazy but they're just not putting their money in the stock market. >> i think that's right. i think that's a big hang over

from the financial crisis that will be with us for a while. >> interesting stuff. steve liesman. news alert on sab miller and chipotle. sue herrera stepping in with those stories. >> let's start with sab miller they were up against the deadline to close their merger with inbev tomorrow. right now sab miller is going to ask mother extension for the formal takeover proposal. they say basically they are working on the sale of sab miller's u.s. businesses but they need more time for the paperwork to get that all completed. now, separately, and this was somewhat expected, chipotle restaurants, they have had that problem with the e.coli outbreak, according to "associated press" oregon officials now say that 37 people have been sickened by e.coli, up from 22. most did eat at chipotle restaurants. you will recall that chipotle closed 40 plus restaurants in the pacific northwest due to the

e.coli breakout or outbreak, rather, and they did expect health officials said the other day they did expect as the news and the head lines came out about the symptoms of e.coli that these numbers would rise and indeed they have, from 22 up to 37. kelly, bill, back to you. >> all right, sue, thank you. about 12 minutes, 11 minutes to go into the close here. dow is now only up about 94 points, still well into positive territory. buh yeed by visa and chevron and exxon today. the energy sector leading the way up 3%. the s&p 500 the broad index only up a quarter percent. >> art cashin just stopped by $100 million to sell, he is calling it a nonevent going into the close. despite today's green arrows our next guest sees danger ahead. he will explain. we will bring in danger man in just a moment. ning 1% cash back everywhere, every time...

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eight and a half minutes left, the dow is up almost 100 points right now. joining us charles debell is the portfolio manager and head the rates of aviva investors. you are worried about the market, aren't you?

>> i am. i think that there's different focus between the rates market and foreign exchange markets and equity markets. the equity markets are taking a lot of comfort from the concept that the fed if it does go will be very slow, very benign and i think that's underestimating the rates market particularly because they're really focused on, well, how do you price. we used to one fed meeting, one rate hike, one rate hike. if they did and stop and go and stop. the term premium and the uncertainty that the faces steep ens it quite a lot and that's going to -- >> so you think the fed by taking a gradual approach increases the uncertainty. >> absolutely. >> and that moves rates up because what's interesting is gross is said today if the fed wants to get rates up it should do a different kind of operation twist. operation switch i think he called t this means that their own actions just to begin this

rate campaign would achieve the same effect. >> absolutely. i think that that's the key distinction the people are not really focused on. the rates markets always try to price the end of a cycle so the minute that we start raising rates you normally see the two, you know, and the yield curve has pretty much discounted the whole move. >> so when they do raise that first time what do you think happens? is that when everybody heads to the exits do you think? >> i think that certainly when you start to see the reaction from -- that's when stocks get uncomfortable. >> classically rather have that -- >> historically that would be a positive signal for the economy. >> great to see you. thanks so much. >> we're coming back with a closing countdown in just a moment. >> after the bell cvs being all in on the streaming business with the "star trek" business exclusively for its all access service. we will find out how well that's doing when they release their earnings. stay with us.

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that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm phil lebeau. on a day when volkswagen at midded there were 300,000 vehicles they would be looking into the emissions of, the primary shareholder for

volkswagen porsche se is announcing that it is going to be taking hit due to the emissions scandal and as a result has issued a profit warning. should not be a surprise given the comments and what we've heard from volkswagen that the primary shareholder porsche has said it will be adjusting it's profit forecast. we have two minutes left as we close things out for the second trading day of november. another positive day, the trading pattern for the dow much like yesterday, until near the close here and we started losing altitude. we are up 87 points right now. oil strong day for wti crude, we finished up almost -- we are up almost 4% right now just off the highs that were set early in the session. now we get the flood of earnings coming our bay, bob pisani. look at the list of companies, kelly and company we are dealing with here including tesla, cbs, etsy, grew upon, zillow a lot of the new technology companies,

devin energy is reporting. >> devin is one of the big -- it is a midsize expiration company, diamond offshore surprised everybody, it looks like they are controlling costs and managing the businesses better than people thought. devin is an expiration and production company. if they have positive comments and surprise there's going to be a lot of reevaluation of these companies. remember they're bottoming down and ever been is trying to figure out whether things are going to get worse. meantime, the retailers had a great day today, one of the best days they have seen in a long time because everybody surprised. l brands came out with good numbers for october, same store sales, they were up 5%, american eagle surprised everyone, their sales, q3 sales up 9%, you can see the moves up here and you can see the impact it's had on pacific sun wear and aer postal. these reason terrible years,

they are down 20, 30% or more, this is the first good news i have heard in retail in a while. l brands has been one of the stand outs on the year. >> we go out off the highs of the day for the dow. ringing the "closing bell" at the new york chock exchange syracuse university and at the nasdaq it's the cast of the peanuts movie. stand by for all those earnings coming up on the second hour of the "closing bell." kelly. thank you, bill. we will come to the closing bell, everybody, i'm kelly evans. here is how we're finishing the day on wall street. what's going to be a busy hour about to start. first of all, the dow closing up 90 points, bolstered by gains in visa, exxon and chevron in particular that explains the outperformance relative to the broad inn des, the s&p adding 5 points, more than a quarter of a percent today, still above 2100 and the nasdaq up about 18 points, 5145, a third of a

percent rally. it's going to be a busy hour or earnings. here are all the reporters we have for you. julia boorstin on cbs, phil lebeau results on tesla, diana olick will bring us jill low, morgan brennan us steel and seema mody covering grew upon. we will have have heavy hitters for the deal book conference in new york city. we will bring you stanley truck en smiler and carl eye can will be speaking later on in the show. joining today's panel we do have our own mike santoli and sara eisen and "fast money" trading guy adami. welcome one and all. mike, let me start with you, a nice two day rally. the nasdaq 100 closing at a new high. >> we're stretching this rally up toward the old highs for the broad indexes. the nasdaq 100 has been a leadership group.

the same mega cap names are getting pushed higher. it seems mature this move and on the other hand the laggard groups are lifting. we talked about the physical retailers, bob did, and also i see some of the trash small cap energy. the stuff that's been blasted and the stuff where you can park money is moving. >> that said, sara, transports are one of the sectors we have been watching all year for some sign of direction. today they were hit by what was happening with avis. shares down on earnings, earnings do definitely matter. hertz was down in sympathy as well. talk of traffic not picking up tantamount to what's happening with airline traffic. there are company specific names if you want to question whether it's uber, for example, or other things going on. car sales is the -- >> very strong. >> 2.2 million. >> it is a divergence. for every bullish argument you can point to they're beating on the bottom line and losing on

the top line. >> i think what was notable today an what's been happening is you're seeing a different correlation between stocks and bonds. stocks are rallying but bonds are selling off and in fact the ten year treasury yield is near six, seven week high. that's something as a result of the federal reserve last week the odds of a december rate hike go above 50% bonds repricing for a potential december interest rate hike. important that stocks are rallying about that move. >> let's take a look at shares of tesla after hours. for now they are popping better than 5%, even though their loss looks likes it was wider than equipmented 58 cents versus the 50 cent estimate. >> guy adami welcome to you. what do you make of what's happening in the energy space? >> a lot of people chasing. people think that the energy market has put in a bottom. i will say the refiners have been the way to play it but though recently you have seen performance of the big cap names, exxonmobil, chevron and

what have you. now, i will say this, i still think that exxon and chevron are expensive, 21 times forward earnings but i thought in both of those stocks 8 or 10% ago and now ner rally mode. they still have some legs to the upside. at a certain point valuation catches up to them. >> what about car sales, guy? >> it's a great number. this is the -- i will go back to it again. i will not dispute the fact that consumer spending seems to be robust and these auto numbers are great. what is in question to me is the consumer should they be spending this money and are they in a position to spend this money. that's the argument. i will not argue with you that the spending is there, what i will argue with you are they in a position to spend the money they are spending. >> on that note there might be a lot of interrupting as we get to these results. we are talking auto, tesla is out. phil lebeau has more. >> a wider than expected loss coming in at a loss of 58 cents a share with revenue coming in lower than expected at $937

million but the delivery that's what so many people are focused on, especially when it comes to the fourth quarter. tesla out saying that it plans to build between 15,000 and 17,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter and to deliver between 17,000 and 19,000 vehicles. remember, it needs to deliver at least 16,883 in order to hit the low end of its guidance of delivering 50,000 vehicles this year so tesla plans to meet that. a couple other notes n march of next year it plans to unveil the model 3. so this will be when we get our first official unveiling of the mass market vehicle, the model 3, and again, tesla with its guidance for q4 deliveries being at least 50 to 52000 vehicles which is above the low end of its guidance. back to you. >> phil, thank you very much. let's reiterate tesla shares moving higher. >> tesla lost a quick 3 bucks in the final half hour of trading. clearly the market was betting

on one color it came up the other one. we're getting more of that back. stock has been at the lower end of its year and a half long range. i feel like it was prime to have people look on the bright side a little bit and it's always about tomorrow and if they say something is coming in march it's going to give you a little more momentum to that story. >> we were talking about how the sentiment has changed on this stock so much offer this year. in fact, only 35% of analysts actually say buy tesla, a year ago at this time that was double that, 70%. so the stock hasn't worked out, obviously moving sharply in the opposite direction up 7% some of those shorts being squeeze squeezed on that better delivery number. that was the key. >> guy. >> i think you have somebody for everybody in in quarter. we have effectively gotten back in the aftermarket what we lost during the day within a dollar or so let's sort of remember this was where it was exactly yesterday. 225 in terms of price has been a n tot point in this stock for that 180 level that we visited

months ago and bounce from there now i think you are in no man's land. you have to hear what they have to say to the extent there is a conference call. at 215 you are flipping a coin at this point in the stock. >> it is up as we mentioned as people look at that delivery number in particular. you know, at the end of the day tesla is a company that's been accused or criticized losing more money even as it session more cars. is that concern going to stick around or turn to focus on that model x, the model 3 which now they're dangling out there for march. >> was that for me, i thought you were talking to phil. if it's for me, listen, i think tesla is a tremendous story and it is about deliveries and the fact they can ramp up production. i think it's an amazing story. i think it's a technology story. what gets in the way sometimes is clearly valuation and any missteps they might take. now to your point here is the stocking trading 225 or so it's right at the pivot point. my inclination would be this, if you've been long the stock into this number i would take profits and see how the thing shakes out

at 225. >> we will move from tesla to cbs which looks like it just beat on its bottom line number. >> adjusted earning 88 cents per share versus expectations of 81 cents and up from 74 cents a year ago period. revenue coming in at just a hair lighter than expectations coming in at $3.26 billion wers us expect he go of $3.27 billion in revenue. the ceo making positive commentary about advertising saying they are pleased with the gains in network advertising and looking forward to the fourth quarter he they're seeing better pricing. he says that nonadvertising revenue is growing faster than advertising revenue led by retransmission consent and reverse compensation saying both of those up 50% in the third quarter and are well on their way to exceeding 8 billion $next year. that positive kpen tear with w.

advertising particularly important in light of the concerns that were raised last quarter about the state of the television bundle. we will continue to dig through these results. back over to you. >> thank you. mike, the shares are moving around. what do you think about the quarter? >> looks like a pretty good quarter, the revenue line a little light. the comments on advertising are important but the stock has been up 20% in the last few weeks. a lot of people think it's better insulated to a lot of the big structural changes going on and that retransmission story has been going on for years. whether they get paid for the carriage of their broadcast. >> when it was disney that was the catalyst for a selloff across the space setting up the rally from the last couple of weeks. cbs, i mean, what does it say to move the needle one way or the other. >> i think a lot of this is priced in for in contract but advertising trends for the coming quarters is the main

swing factor. the rest of it is baked in in terms of the buy backs and retransmission. >> first let's start with zinga, seema mody has their results. >> third result results are in coming in at break even at 0 cents adjusted versus the estimate of a loss of 1 cent. revenue from bookings coming in in at $176 million that's higher than the $170 million estimate. guidance for q4 coming in a bit week. it is delaying the launch of two games, of course, the important metric to watch is monthly active users that coming in at 75 million sooipd. that is down 27% year over year. average daily active users down 21% year over year. now, in addition to reporting earnings zynga announcing a management change. the cfo is resigning and that is effective immediately. this coming in after mark znyga

took command. the stock has been flirting between gains and losses after hours, right now up about a half a percent. >> let's flip over to courtney reagan is within eye on results from et cetera see. >> this is their third quarter reporting as a public company, they did post a loss of 6 cents, that was what analysts were expecting, revenue of about $65.6 million, about in line analysts looking for about $66 million for revenue. their growth merchandise sales was higher than what wall street had been looking for, that number coming in at $568.8 million, all street was looking for $546 million. also a nice increase in the active buyers as well as the active sellers but of course the active buyers is the one we are looking at an increase now saying there are 22.6 active buyers -- 22.6 million active

fwiers buyers that's up from last quarter. >> they are down about 2% but the metrics seem to matter so much especially the early stages for these companies and etsy is another company where there have been a lot of skeptics lately. does this give them a second wind? >> the stock was up 3% during the regular trading day so it's just giving back some of that. it looks like roughly on target. i still don't know that investors feel as if they actually need to care about an etsy right now in the space. >> down 446% in three months. >> wow. >> exactly. etsy recently came up -- have you heard of flash tattoos, sara? >> no. >> they're sparkly, stick on, you can get them customized. etsy is place you can go for almost fashion trends these days unbeknownst to me but a huge business for them. if they can figure out how to use social better and get the word out better that could be a catalyst. >> amazon recently announced it's going directly to etsy's

business handmade at amazon which is a problem to compete with an amazon which has a bigger business, bigger scale bigger prime audience and company that has sacrificed profits in order to grow in the past. >> we are out of time, guy. before we let you go put a point on what you have heard from the earnings this afternoon. >> you are talking about buy backs, it's fascinating to me when continues disappoint, miss, in line it's always that buy back line that catches my eye. that seems to be the fix all for everything. i think etsy real quick i don't think it's enough. i think the 15% short will grow, i think they will push it down to 10 bucks. zynga is a nonevent as mike was saying sort of it gives you nothing. i think tesla reaction tomorrow is going to be fascinating. does it reach its 225 level or fade in the former. i think it fades. >> guy, thank you for joining us. always good to have guy adami along. there's much more coming up with him and the "fast money" crew at 5:00. tesla's earnings call will pick

off at 5:30 they have have the latest headlines from elon musk. more from the deal book conference. stanley druckenmiller of duquesne capital and carl icahn will take the stage and we will bring that to you. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide.

welcome in. let's given on andrew ross sorkin speaking to stanley druckenmiller about the fed and market. >> i can't explain in a classroom and with traditional economic theory, maybe that's why i dropped out of a ph.d. program, but what i can tell you it's a historical fact when prices go up and speculation is rampant, that's when corporations buy back stock. that's when they do it. >> so would you say we are in a bubble now? do you really think we are in a speculative bubble at this moment? >> we are in a bubble in terms of what i would call short-term behavior. if that makes any sense. >> so as an -- >> by the way, at all four levels i talked about, government, business, the fed, money managers. it's rampant in our whole

society. >> so what do we do about that? >> about what, the latter or the fed? >> let's start as just an investor. everybody here is trying to figure out what to do. how do you deal with this, then? >> well, i'm a bit of an oxymoron in the sense that i don't make so-called long-term investors the way other well-known investors do, but i manage for the long-term. i have -- but it's a series of short-term investments. i have never exited or went into a trade because i thought it would make my quarter look better or i was afraid my clients would think this or they would think that. i happen to, i hope, been trained for 35 years if we get into a difficult environment. fortunately or unfortunately all my biggest absolute returns were in periods of chaos.

so i'm not looking forward to t but i can i can deal with it if this unfolds. >> does that mean you're anticipating kay could say. >> yes. >> and you are sitting with all this cash under your mattress. >> no, one of the reasons i got rid of my clients is so i would have money money so i would be flexible. no, i'm playing around like everybody else and i'm watching and leery and ready to move. >> when you say you're playing around like everybody else, where are you playing? what are you doing? >> well, i don't know. i guess in terms of equities i'm -- i'm working under the assumption that we may have started a primary bear market in july, mainly because about 80 or 90% of the stocks have been going down for a year and that trends to proceed and we have the nifty fifty right around when i was starting in the business and now we are down to about the nifty ten, everybody in the room knows what they are,

and i've been hanging out in the nifty ten and short value stocks probably the opposite of what they would teach in dr. somer's class. i'm shorting the euro again, which that's another fundamental thing. if you want to get into the reasons for all this i will, but -- >> please do. >> the euro -- this, again, is -- first of all, don't go out and do anything i say. probably one of my greatest assets the last 30 years i'm very open-minded and i can change my mind very quickly. but about -- well, i guess it was may of '14 u.s. monetary policy and european monetary policy flipped at the same time, draghi decided to do quantitative easing, lower the deposit rate at the same time bernanke decided to do tapering.

so because it had been the opposite for a few years euro was overvalued, their balance sheet was shrinking ours -- so that flipped back then. i have never seen a currency move -- i've been doing this a long time -- of this intensity last 11 months. the nice thing about currency moves they tend to last two or three years. but they usually take a time out somewhere in the middle. if you remember the yen went from 80 to 105 then took a time out for eight or nine months from 105 to 95. i have thought we are in a time out like that in the euro and now look at what's happening. draghi looks like he is pretty much pre announced step two, we don't know whether it's going to be a cut in the deposit rate to even more negative, more qe or both, at the same time there's even more heavy breathing going on at the fed, who knows whether they are going to pull the trigger or not but you have sort of a mini version of what we had

in may of '14 which is a movement like this in the two monetary policies. given the fact that currency moves usually last two or three years, it's only been a year and a half, the policies are sort of flipping, all my brethren have gotten out of the trade including me. i'm working under the assumption that leg two has started. when i say working under the assumption i'm flexible, andrew. >> flexible in that you can change your mind. you mentioned there is a bear market or bear market has begun this summer >> i'm open minded to that, yes. >> open-minded to that. positioned that way. >> i was. i covered very well, unfortunately i didn't play the rally other than to get out of the way of it and where i am now is sort of neutral along this high bet at that and high growth stuff, companies are investing in their business is something that i think will do very well

with low nominal growth and em short a bunch of nominal companies that need cyclical growth against it and my guess is i could get -- i could see myself getting very bearish, i can't really see myself getting really bullish. i'm kind of on the sidelines in equities in terms of exposure and messing around in the euro. >> help us with this. jim rometti was here i kwoetd you -- >> that was nice. >> it was lovely. >> she must have been excited. >> about your view in particular about ibm and the buy back. when you look at ibm now she made an argument, may have been per sideways sieve to some, may not have been to others about the fact that a company like that needs time to shift. she made the argument that this is not a secular shift for her company but by the way i

wouldn't even argue she made it as a psych clickel shift, she just sort of suggested that they are in a transformation period. do you buy that? >> no. i was looking at amazon and i was looking at ibm the other day. the last 19 quarters amazon has missed their quarterly earnings nine times. they don't give a damn. ibm has missed three-quarters since 2006. they really care about their quarterly earnings. it's an interesting transformation because i heard a little bit of your questions and it's not just the 14 quarters in a row of down sales, their r&d has shrunk as a percentage of sales, they are under major attack from amazon, palantier all these companies other there eating away and their r&d has

shrunk in absolute terms and as a percentage of share sales. i think it's gone from 6.2 to 5.9% on a shrinking base. amazon has gone from 5% to 10%. now, who is investing for the transition -- what kind of transition is that when you're shrinking your r&d, they brought back $43 billion in stock at an average price of 189. they say they are stewards of capital and returning value to hair sholders. i don't know how you buy something at 189 and it's 142, that's not my kind of return to shareholders, but -- sorks no, i don't -- i don't believe in the transition. >> you mentioned amazon. >> yeah. >> is that a stock that makes sense to you? >> oh, yeah. i love amazon. >> because? >> because they are investing their future, bee zeros is a serial mon op list, he has come up with this aws, okay, which is

absolutely exploding i don't know how many people are small businessmen and women, if you're starting a business today you don't need a technical department or back office, you can use aws. by the way, it's ripping to shreds the 10 or 15 consultants you have from ibm on your firm that you used to need that you don't need because now you go into cloud. in retail they were 22% of u.s. sales growth this year of retail, one company, and he's just sitting there with narrow margins and within he has enough to share a market whenever he wants he can get those margins up. >> he may never do that and it doesn't matter. >> what do you mean why am i -- because he is a businessman and i see a strategy and i think it's genius. >> but you're convinced they will at some point -- >> of course. of course he will. i will probably be daddy, but of course he will. >> by the way n a similar vain how do you feel about a company like netflix.

>> that man went to bodien, he walks on water as far as i'm concerned. >> okay. >> same thing. you know, i only heard 30 seconds of him, i was in the gym but when he said if you manage for quarterly earnings you are dead and somebody on cnbc says it's easy for him to say with a stock price like that. well, why do you think he has a stock price like that? because he has thought about the long-term and not cared about quarterly earnings and all the short term the whole time. >> let me ask you this. . we have had conversations before about inequality and i think you have made the argument to me that you think that what the fed has done as exacerbated inequality in this country, especially when it comes to the long-term issues in this country when it comes to entitlements. true? >> you know, i'm not going to run around and say the fed has exacerbated inequality. it has been a side effect of what they've done.

look, qe has elevated asset prices, the middle class hasn't participated, so clearly it's exacerbated inequality. i'm more worried about the eventual consequences and who is going to pay for it. which is not going to be me. but in terms of entitlements, yes, i do think and i have made this point very strongly four or five years ago, i haven't talked about it too much since then, that you get -- you get congressional action and presidential action in a crisis and by keeping the markets elevated and blocking the market signal the same way that the market signal was blocked to the brazilian government, the congress has been able to not really worry about entitlements, everybody is happy, everybody is partying, we're keeping this thing going, but just like it is on climate change, the clock is ticking on the entitlements and it's a nasty story that's

developing. >> you went around about five years around and visited a whole sort of school. >> it probably would have been 2011. >> the argument you were making then still matters today and it is what? >> the argument is in a nutshell it's twofold, from the late '60s we've gone from about 28% of government outlays being payments to individuals to 68%. during the same time period senior poverty rates have gone from 30 to 9, that's a good thing, child poverty rates have gone from 21 to 23 over 50 years, that's a bad thing. 23% of american children are born into poverty. the top 35 industrialized nations, we are number 34 we beat romania, we do not beat latvia and the other 32

countries. i'm going to give you a quiz, andrew, because you're very smart and very educated in this stuff. the federal government -- spends $8,000 per capita per child in this country as defined by 15 and under, $8,000 per capita. what do they spend per capita on the seniors of our country? >> i'm assuming the answer is even less. >> the seniors? $44,000. >> $44,000. >> $8,000 on our children, $44,000 on our seniors. i will put it a different way. 8 cents out of the average income of a dollar of every american goes to spending on children, 56.8 cents goes towards spending on seniors. so they've been getting a bigger and bigger and bigger share of the pie over the last 50 years. say what you will about that, unfortunately that's not the nd

of the problem. a bunch of us or a bunch of our parents had babies one of which i was back in the early 50s. so we have a demographic baby boom about to return to a grave boom. those of us i'm only 62 but i will be there in a little bit who are getting so much more of the pie there's about to be a lot more of us. between now and 2050 the over 65, the nonworking population is going to grow 117%. the working population, 18 to 64 is going to grow 17%. so you've got this huge, huge bulge, it started in 2011, every day 11,000 new seniors are created but only 2500 new adult workers are created to support them. sometime between now and 2030 this is going to be a problem. it's going to be a big problem. now, this is the part the scare

mon ger remembers like to talk about, i'm not into scare among gerg but the federal debt everyone that runs around 19 trillion indianapolis we hear it every day. if you believe that i was going to get my social security payments and everybody else was and their medicare payments and the government is not go to renege on us so you present valued the following, that that's a liability not a revenue, if you are going to pay me something, if the government knows its a liability and you present valued that stream of payments that's been promised to me and looked at the revenues that are coming in, the federal debt would not be $19 trillion it would be $205 trillion. that's the bulge we're looking at hand that's assuming interest rates are going to be 4%. anybody who has been to greece knows they won't be 4% it's somewhere along that chain. that's the problem you asked me to articulate. >> very pessimistic take on the world. we don't have that much time but

i want to open it up to questions i know there are probably a handful of folks who want to ask. >> by the way, i'm not pessimistic, you just asked me to describe some facts. >> i'm pretty pessimistic. we have a question right over here. >> and that's duquesne capital stanley druckenmiller dee deal book conference. that was entitlements but he also touched on stock specific companies, issues. amazon versus ibm, we know ibm he has been upset about for seem. >> two years ago he was long amazon, google, short ibm. he's kind of taking what the market gives him right now, having the luxury of not actually having to beat a benchmark or stay fully invested, you kind of get the feeling he's got the market on a short leash so he can go if he feels the need to go. >> he kept saying don't necessarily do what i do, i could change my mind at any second i'm not totally bullish but not totally bearish. >> he's wishy washy on equities

but not so on currency, did he say he was shorting the euro again which is an important point right now because what we had seen the last time we had this sharp monetary policy divergence where the fed was leaning to raise interest rates and the european central bank was moving the other way what he said about that strong rally in the dollar really did work out over the last year. it has paused and a lot of folks including obviously big name hedge funds are gearing up for that trade again with draghi talk being potentially talking about looking at the size of his qe in december. >> if the trade especially anything like the last time around kicks off again it will have big implications. >> if the fed tightens in december when the ecb eases it will be the first time you had that move in a single month since 1994. >> china is in easing mode. >> before there was an ecb. >> exactly. the euro still so new we have a lot more earnings coming in. we will take a short break. up next activist investor carl

icahn is set to take the stage is a conference. "closing bell" back in two. sure, tv has evolved over the years.

it's gotten squarer. brighter. bigger. thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. welcome back. lateral earnings to get to here. let's start with zillow and we will get more from diana olick. >> it was a nice beat for

zillow. revenue 176.8 million sooipd up slightly from expectations up 13% but a net profit of 7 cents a share. the street was looking for a 3 cent per share loss. they did finish the integration of trulio, that was ahead of schedule, zillow's ceo saying they are ending 2015 in tremendous shape. zillow group will enter 2016 with the potential for rebust sustainable growth in the years ahead and he called this quarter remarkable. one thing i want to note they did see an increase in the unique users to brands like zillow, trulio, street easy and hot pads up from q 2 by a hair but the big jump was in mortgage revenue which grew 60% to $12.6 million from $7.9 million in the third quarter. nice growth in the mortgage business and they did complete the sale of market leader. kelly. >> that is interesting. the shares up 4.5%.

diana, thank you. catch zillow's question on mad money tonight with jim cramer that begins at 6:00 p.m. eastern. u.s. steel also out with its results. >> that's right. so u.s. steel reporting an adjusted loss of 70 cents per share, that is a much wider loss than the 20 cent loss analysts had been expecting n terms of revenue that came in light as well, $2.83 billion versus the $2.95 billion that the street had been expecting. in terms of comments from the company, saying that commercial markets are not improving as we had anticipated for the second half of 2015. citing steel selling prices that have reversed saying, quote, excessively high levels of impor imports, also weakness in the oil patch. taking a look at these after shares they are down 9% on that 70 cent loss. back over to you. >> all right, morgan, thank you. a slue of companies as we've

mentioned reporting earnings after the bell today. seema mody joins us with some of the biggest moving this hour. >> let's start with group upon reporting a beat, 5 cents versus the 2 cents estimate. revenue a bit light 714 million sooipd versus the 733 million $expectation. but here is what investors are focused on a management manage. the bort of directors has appointed rich williams as crew chief executive officer that's effective immediately. williams will succeed eric lefkowski who has been the question since august of 2013. shares of groupon halted after hours. we will keep an eye on that stack. let's move over to herbal life. 128 adjusted versus 105 adjusted. revenue 1.1 billion versus the estimate of 1.15 billion. it did, however, up its 2015 earnings guidance. we are looking at shares right now down 1.8% after hours.

lastly let's talk food. fogo de chao u.s. comp sales up 2el 7% that stock down fractionally on the day. back to you. >> we should also have another look at tesla, cbs, they report at the top of the hour. tesla sharply higher after its result when it looked like delivery would hit guidance for the year. holding a lot of those gains of 9%. cbs beat earnings and i think matched revenues. talked about network gains on the advertising front in the third quarter. i'm sorry, a slight, slight miss on revenues for cbs $3.26 million those shares down 2%. >> giving back some of this rebound rally. i think that's how i would characterize t on the call you do want to hear if they have any comments just about the overall revenue picture in terms of the cable economy. >> and also looking at some of these earnings we mentioned etsy but also ran through zynga and

some others. when stand druckenmiller talks about how the nilty ten is what it's all about. we've ban talk being a nifty fifty 2.0, if you will. does this mean that the pool of invest i believe names is shrinking. >> the pool of names that are working well is and reliably is shrinking but you have the flip side of that is the bargain hunting unstingt has plenty to do. zynga is a name you can safely write off to be honest with you, it is not a big economic entity. zillow is interesting to me. it looks like there has been an overlay of skepticism around this name and looks like it's going to make a run at those old highs around 33. >> we will to get back to the deal book conference where andrew sorkin is joined by carl icahn. >> activists and the role that activism has played in some of those decisions and i wanted to get your take just straight up and down as to whether you think

you are contributing to short-term behavior or long-term behavior. >> well, i think that activisms activists aren't all the same, there are many different types and many different kinds. my way of looking at it over the years, one of the conditions i name is, andrew called me up and said, you know, they want to talk about short termists and you have held all of these stocks so long you ought to come and talk about it at the deal book. i generally don't do this but i made a list i will just read it quickly because nobody wants to hear me read anything, but you look at the companies that we bought over the years, i was surprised myself about the long-termism that we do. so acf i own 31 years, i hate to admit that i have these stocks this long, 31 years. and then i've looked at american railcar industries 23 years,

federal mogul pfc metal 17 years, federal mogul 14 years, excel 14 years, vector 13 years, american casino 11 years, national energy 11 years, west point 11, and it goes on and on. we and many activists are not short term oriented. i can't say all of them r it depends. if you have partnerships and people want to get returns i guess you have to be somewhat short-term oriented but the real money that i made over the years is holding companies for seven, eight, nine years and keeping them. i look back, we bought casinos and you have to buy them when nobody wants them really. that's the real secret. you buy things -- it sounds very simple but it's hard to do. when everybody hates it you buy them and then -- and then when everybody wants them you sell it to them. and that's what we do. and we go into and we clean up a company. there are many companies in the country that are very well run,

but many are terribly run and you don't have corporate democracy, you still don't. you have people that run companies that aren't bad people, but shouldn't be running the companies, they're way over their heads. they have different agendas. so if you think about it if you -- this is corporate america. if you -- your uncle left you a vineyard, a beautiful vineyard, apple orchards, farm, left you the vineyards said congratulations that's great you are going to enjoy yourselves, have all this money rolling in and eight months later you say to your friend, what happened, how are you doing? terrible. what's the matter? the vineyard is okay, it's nice, but the manager, the guy that mansion it he plays golf all day, he has a plane that he rents for himself and his parties for his girlfriends and he really doesn't do any work and he sells little pieces here and there and he won't give me

any money. i said what are you crazy get the police and kick him off. that's corporate america for a lot of t you go to corporations and this is how they act and they believe that they own these companies and they don't really care and the reason i made so much money over the years is that you hold these people accountable and it's amazing. some these boards are good, you know, the boards are buddies -- usually buddies with the ceo but a lot of them listen to us after you get there for a year or government the reasons we make all this money not i'm a brilliant stock picker, i don't think anybody is, i think that we get in, we find that there's problems and it doesn't always work and it doesn't work -- you have to wait many years at times, but the problem with our country and i think we are going to pay a price for it sooner than we think is that many of our companies are not run well. now, that is not to say that many of the companies we own don't have good managers and that there are many other good managers and good boards around, but if you ask me the future and

what we think here, you know, i just had the opportunity to listen into stanley for a few minutes, i got here a little early and was listening to him and watching him on the tv so i could hear real well and i think of what he says is right on, there will be real problems, we are talking into a minefield of what's going on with the fed. we can go on and on about this but i think we have problems. >> come back to me with unactivism for one second. when you look at that list do you consider that the activist list meaning are those -- are those -- are those situations where in each case you consider those an activist vessel or straight up investments? the reason i ask is, for example, right now you're going after aig and we can talk about it, but one of the things you want to do is break that company up. i assume that you want to own that company only for the period of which it would be that it would get broken up and then you would want to leave.

no? >> not necessarily. sometimes. a lot of times. but you talk about activists. let's go for the first one, i still own it. 31 years, acf. let me tell you a little story about acf. i don't mind you can listen a few minutes, you have your drinks a few minutes later or something, but i will tell you a fast little story here. i was a kid, you know, 31 years ago, compared to today, and i see this acf and i'm a workaholic and i keep working on companies and i say this company sells for 30 bucks and i'm looking at the railcars they own and looked at all the stuff that they got, they don't make am i money. i'm an old gray guy, i still have and i take all the money, at that time i had -- you know, i had a fair amount of money, i mean, nothing like today i guess, but enough to, you know, put in 400, 500 million or borrow it or whatever i did so i boult a lot of stock and now we're going in and we're saying, you know, this is so cheap, it's 30 bucks and they have all these

assets they are not making any money. what the hell? i finally get control of the company, i get the company and now i go in and, you know, i'm a good math guy, i don't believe in micromanaging i meet the ceo he said, mr. a can, we would love to have you, after a bit of fight still love to have you a bore, i said, great, let's be friends. they manufactured railcars, oh, boy, the details and they had a lot of companies. in the railcar business the secret is very simple, that you make railcars but the government wants to incentivize you so the government says, okay, in other words, you can depreciate the railcar over five, six, seven years but if you keep it for 40 years so you get this great depreciation so it's great tax incentive. the secret is you have to make money to use the tax benefits, right? so these guys kept buying companies an every company they bought they lost money. that was the real problem. now i go and they've got 12 floors on third avenue when real estate was pretty good, early

'80s, i said, okay, you are the guys that lease the railcars, you do all the dparn work and this is a true story and sort of amazing but applies a lot to today, maybe not as much -- well, pretty much hard to belie know. so i go in, and i -- i'm a good math guy, a good numbers guy, a good poker player and i understand what they do. they said mr. carl icahn, go to the 12th floor and yellow pad and they are trying to explain this and these guys do this and that and seventh floor, spend the whole day, go home and i take a look at my yellow pad and i can't figure out what the hell they do. and i go back the next day, the 7th floor, the 9th floor, the 8th floor, i'm not an idiot, i can't figure out what they do. why do you need him to do that? this is very archaic stuff, you don't understand. so i say fine. i say i'm going to st. louis, i want to see the guy that is the

coo. don't go, mr. carl icahn, don't go. and i said why shouldn't i go. and he said they are scared of you. he said they depend on us -- they depend on us and we tell them what to do and they are very worried that you might do something with us. well i said i'm not threatening to do something. so i go back. 7th floor, 9th floor, boom, boom, i can't figure out what is going on. i said screw these guys. i call the guy named joe in st. louis. i said i want to come see you. of course, i would love to see you. i said do me a favor, don't tell the coo i'm coming and i said don't be nervous. and this guy joe is like a john wayne character. a tough guy, in the marines, i was scared of him. and i'm sitting there and looking at him and talking and laughing and he's showing me this and that and i understand what he does. and i said i want to have a drink with you. so we go out and have a drink.

and we're having a martini the two of us and i said i want to ask you something, i don't want you to think i'm attempting to do anything and why should i be nervous, i want to tell you, i can't -- i want to know, how many of those guys in new york you need to support your operation here. because i honestly can't figure out what they do. and he said i'll tell you what you should do. i'll tell you how many supports i need. i need minus 30. so i go and i say, joe, what is the hell does that mean, minus 30. he said you don't have the balls to do, i'll tell you what to do. and i said what is that. and he said get rid of all of them tomorrow. get rid of all of them. and i'll need 30 people less to have to support them with the numbers they don't need from me. so i go and i say, hey, it is unbelievable, i can't believe this. now today, i would have done it immediately. get rid of a bunch of 12 floors. but then i still was wondering, maybe this guy is -- joe is a

little crazy. how can i get rid of 12 floors of people. i figure how do i do that? and meanwhile, i knew the guy who owned the building and he said, carl, i could use the lease if you get out and i don't think these people do anything. i watch them. and i said, bull -- he is a real estate guy, what the hell does he know. and i now go and i figure what the hell do i do? so there is a consultant around. they are okay sometimes. not too often but sometimes. but i brought these guys in, nice guys, columbia university, those days, the great leasing experts, they do this for all of the companies. i call them in. three guys come in. one it a professor at columbia and he said we understand your problem. very archaic. and i said i heard that word before. and i said i want to know what they do. don't worry about it. three weeks we'll be back. a quarter of a million dollars. an i said okay, come back in

three weeks. they come back in three weeks. this is hard to believe but it typified america. people don't believe it. comes back in three weeks with a book like this, big book, boom boom boom. yellow, green graphs. and i said i ain't going to read this book and i'm color blind any way. [ laughter ] so i said all i want you to do, here is a yellow pad, i did very well in school, i'm a numbers guy, tell me what they do. and i said here is your quarter of a million bucks and i give it to him and he looks at me and said you've been scare with us and you seem like a good guy so i'm going to tell you something. we don't know what they do either. and i'm not joking. i am not joking. but here is the funniest thing. it is really sort of funny. i said screw it. i call joe up. he comes over. he said, great, great.

do it. and i give them severance, nobody was mad. got rid of the whole 12 floors and sold the lease for $12 million and this was a lot then. and if you shut down a grocery store, let's say you go in a store and shut it down, you hear from somebody. somebody didn't get the apples right or the pads were rotten or if you have a flower shop, the roses were wilted. it was like out of a science fiction movie. it is like they never existed. i never got a letter. i never got anybody calling me. it is they left. it was like -- one of those bombs. it just hit the thing and kills all of the people and the building stays. but i follow -- i follow those principles a lot in what i do. there are very many companies where -- and it is nobody's fault really -- but it is just the ceo doesn't care. he is making a lot of money. and today it is very dangerous because a lot of these mediocre

companies are borrowing money and very cheaply and that is what theoretically makes the earnings questionable. >> but there is an argument to be made that some of the ceos are borrowing the money to pursue buybacks and other engineering initiatives because they are worried that otherwise if they don't, you're coming. >> yeah. i know, they say that. but that is not true. okay, they buy it back because they have options, okay. and they want the stock up. and that is all they really care about. and that is the human nature. they know they are not good at what they do. they do know this and they are out there, all scratch golfers, these guys, and they really -- and by the way, even if i was coming, they are right with me. they are saying great. let's keep buying the stock back. there are companies out there, many of them, by the way, going at 30 times earnings because they keep increasing earnings because they are buying back stock. i mean each one is a little bit

of a different story. but they are buying back stock, and buying it back at low interest rates, and inflating earnings by -- they are not in any way showing you the real earnings, okay. they are looking -- you look at a lot of these -- for instance, they are not depreciating correctly. they are going in and if you look at a lot of companies, valeant is a perfect example, but you have other ones too. valeant is a ridiculous example, right. i mean valeant -- and the analysts let them get away with it. they go in and they say well we don't gar kair about gaap earnings. nobody cares. okay. so valeant goes and buys a company that has a product, a compound, a good compound, but it is going off pat innocent

thr -- patent in three years. we don't care. we're so good we'll buy other companies. but when the other company they buy it is not research and development and not expensing it and so we buy other kitchens and we are great. you geniuses, go ahead and do it. and so the earnings are so overstated because you just -- it is just -- take a lot of companies, take intangible assets and goodwill, you don't advertise it when you give guidance. so youern yourself way overstated in this country. >> you mentioned valeant. did you listen to bill acman's phone call last week. >> i didn't listen to it. but i can imagine, i know what he said. i'm not mad at him any more. we're not going to get into that. we're friends. we're friends. in quotes we're friends. i disagree with him fleet kplooetly on herbalife. but -- >> but not on valeant? >> i'm not in valeant. well, i don't want to say i'm

not completely in it but i won't tell you where i am with it but that is not the issue. the issue really is -- the issue real will is -- and i don't want to use valeant. i'm using a concept. they are picking on valeant because a lot of companies are doing the same damn thing. a lot of companies overstate earnings in this country. and you can just look at it and you know. this is what i do for a living. i know a lot of these companies just overstate the earnings, one day there is going to be a day of come-uppence and it is going to be a tough day or a week. i agree with what stanley said but you don't know when. you have real -- real problems. i mean not to go back to a thing but i was reading some thing today, i was working, that -- what is it alliance bernstein said that the etfs are unsafe and they are.

they are. these etfs, according to what buffet said about the derivatives, they are weapons of mass destruction. because what stands behind an etf are bonds that don't trade. it is larry fink and he is a goodbye and i like him, we're good friends but if he doesn't think they are unsafe, will he guarantee liquidity. so when people want to get out of the etf and sell the bonds set behind them, who the hell is going to buy those bonds? is larry fink going to buy them. that is my whole point. black mark is not going to buy them. >> between bill acman and larry fink, these are great friends. >> i never said anything bad about acman. >> well let me ask you -- >> but fink does what does he and he does a great job. he sells that stuff and it is a great job he does and he does just what he should be doing. his job is to make money for black rock and he does it. and i will tell you