does one look at it like a google? this has been going on for two years. it's not stepped up with those other big names. but after all, it was a ten bagger from the early 2011. so maybe the two year side way action is the pressure they need. there is much more to go. >> i'm looking at this news is what kind of got us talking about it. netflix was up 18% this year. there was a time that tesla was

in there with facebook and google and it's not anymore. it's down 25%. it's down 2% on the year. it seems to be in bate of a funk. when the good news comes out that they break consumer reports scale as far as testing but then consumer reports has to pull the recommendation, it looks one step forward, two steps back. that's what the stock feels like to me for now. forget valuation. i think we're likely to see a period very similar to q-1 last year and q-1 this year when i think the stock is going to decline. i know we have fairly important $200 support. and i really want to say that, listen, i don't think anyone is going to get rich betting against him. i think there is an interesting trade setup. >> i want to do. this. >> again, option prices increased a little bit today. they're fairly elevated. you don't want to go out a buy premium. that's why i want to look to finance the purchase of longer

data puts. when the stock was $220, i could sell the december 31st weekly that, is a weekly option, okay, 200 put at $4.50 and i can help finance the purchase of the march 200 put paying $13.50. that calendar cost me $9. what i'd like to see happen between now and december 31st is have the stock grind lower. have that short dated option that i'm short expire worthless and then i own that march 200 put. at that point that i have some options, i have to look into a calendar again or sell a lower strike put. >> the only way to own puts on this, it's a very high implied volatility name. if the option prices are extremely elevated in here, you have to do something like calendar spreads. critical data points we're going to get are longer out even than that. so i wouldn't even mind extending that longer dated option to a longer dated one and

then rolling front month options against it and waiting to see what happens with the model x. >> certainly, day to day, look, the stock is an underperformer. how many are sitting at their august lows? tesla, compared to the other great names, is struggling. and in that sense the immediate path is in your direction. >> i think the fact that the stock fills in that entire earnings gap in the last couple weeks tells that you lower lows are coming. this is not a long term bearish bet. i would love to buy it on a down draft closer to 115. that's my trade next year at some point if i get the direction i want at some point i want to turn. >> abercrombie was down 25%. ross and gap and t.j. max getting in on the option. there may be hope for the sector. morgan brenner has more. morgan? >> me list yashgs that's right. there's been a lot of focus on retail. the retail etf, seeing the best week since january after that big selloff last week.

let's dig a little deeper and see what is working in the space overall. the s & p retailing industry group up is 30% over the past 12 months. it trounced the broader s & p during the same time. but here's where it gets interesting. the chief market strategist at jones trading points out that four stocks have accounted for 90% of that yearly gain. amazon, netflix, home depot and lowe's. so amazon which up is 128% over past year, account ford 54% of the industry group gain. 18%, home depot. that stock gaining 31%. netflix which up is 110% over past 12 months, 13% of that overall move. and lowe's added another 5% to retailing fees. they're up 29% in the past 12 months. if you add the next two biggest

competitors, o'reilly and autozone, 96% rev tailing yearly increase can be chalked up to six stocks. specifically, stocks that reflect where consumers have been spending their money. internet services, home improvement and autos. what is absent from this? apparel. melissa, back over to you. >> morgan brennan, thank you. and carter over here thinks one name is actually about to break out, carter. >> that's right, lowe's is unchanged from the past 10 months. i think that level is about to be xeet xceeded to the upside. this is going to play catchup with the fraternal twin. so i got lowe's and home depot over past 12 months. and obviously you're talking about quite bate of lag. running at almost half the rate. let's pull it back to a long term chart. this is over the past ten years. so, again, a lot of lag in lowe's. the day to day chart looks

timely. so a big runup. and consolidation. you can draw the line many different ways. this is one way. and so a flat top, you know we've come off these lines looking for a bounce off there. and now the top, the top, the top. this is descending a little bit. you can look at it like that or take it away, now you can do it this way with an absolute flat top. the highs are $76. we close at 77. so we're right at the precise highs of earlier in the year. again, same setup. so whether you look at it as a little bit of a descending top or a flat top, i think you get the breakout here and it's a catchup trade relative to home depot. >> mike, why do you think lowe's can catch up? >> i think there's good news here and there's bad news. start with the good. the good news is that valuation, if we just take a look at how this is trading relative to the earnings, that's going down all year. the earnings have been going up. take a look at the quarter they just reported. their growth year on year for

that quarter was more than 35% in terms of eps. they were 60 cents a year ago, 80 cents now. that is justifies a higher multiple. the other thing, home sales are strong. that also is a big upside. that is also the weakness, too. if home sales weaken, this stock could be vulnerable. so when i take a look at this i'm willing to risk a very small amount. how about 1% of the current stock price. $75 stock. for 75 cents, i can buy the january 77.5, 80 call spread. that gives me upside exposure with really a minimal outlet. >> i think, listen, the technical setup is beautiful. a little surprised they reported. the stock was up a few percent. i would have expected more. they did get the breakout here. i think if you want to play for a breakout, the time her eyoriz going to work. and you're going to know this is in play one way or another.

>> that's right. that's the critical catalyst you want to be very due jishs about making the long bets. if you press long here in the names, the market is trading close to the all time highs, you want to make sure you capture that catalyst. >> let's say you're long home depot, how does that chart look? >> home depot is fine. if you listen to the lead in to the story, it's things relating to auto that are doing well and housing. that is one common denominator. low interest rates. rates are not going higher. i think that backdrop continues. got a question out there? send us a tweet. we love your tweets, particular lit nice ones. we have great articles, videos throughout the week and exclusive trades online. you can also sign up for the newsletter. you want to check it out. in the meantime, here's what's coming up next. ♪ we'll do better than that, mick, we'll show you how to protect your whole portfolio for less

than $5. plus -- yeah, that's what goldman sachs thinks crude is going to do and it has some traders really excited. we'll tell you why when "options action" returns. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. welcome back. stocks saw green today. the s&p 500 having the best week of the year rallying more than 3%. if you have gains, what's the best way to protect your profit?

the yoda of options is at the smart board. >> here we are approaching the market's all time highs. consider ways to hedge your portfolio. first thing you want to think about when you look at hedges is how long i do want to be protected? what do i want to protect against? we have the federates decision. we have the toll day decision. maybe you're looking at star wars. so that takes us at least into january. the next thing you want to take a look at, how much protection do i need? well, we know that the s&p 500 when it fell recently fell down to around 1900. that translates to 190. down about 10%. if we look at this time frame, we want to hedge that much. and the final thing is how much am i willing to spend? obviously, there has to be a limit. you're not willing to spend 10%, obviously, if you think that's all of the risk. so in this case, i'm going to look at spending 2% of the portfolio level or less. how do we do it? look to the january 2009 put

spread. that is going to cost me $4. i'll sell the 189 against it for a dollar. the important thing is that decay in that $1 option is going to offset a lot of the decay in the short term, especially in the 209 strike put that i get. that gets me protection down to that 1% level we identified. they're going to issue a dividend between now and expiration that, will amount to $1. so that is slightly less than 2%. >> we know you don't like the chart right now. >> we've been in a bull market for a better part of a year. the rustus ar russell 2,000 is . the russell 3,000 thou is down maybe 3.5% from the 52-week high. yet, 48% of the stock in the index are down more than 20%. it's not a good market. and these kind of ricochets are always after a bad week. last bad week, now we have a

good week. we're going nowhere. >> is this the kind of trade you put on to protect? >> i think the really important thing about putting on protection trades is really being tactical about it. you don't want to do this periodically. this would be a massive drag on returns. going back to the charts and stuff we talk about, 2100 seems like a really big level here. we've come back on a couple of occasions after the august selloff and september selloff. i'm not certain when you talk about 3,000 stocks in the russell, i don't know what is going to take the s&p 500 higher. it can't be the same ten stocks. >> you have to be tactical with hedges. when you think about your insurance, health insurance, car insurance that, is an expense. when we invest, we're willing to accept a certain amount of risk. but it's when and where you take that risk. you're not taking a lot of risk if you're buying the market on very low valuations after they pulled back. where you're taking a lot of risk is when you buy at high valuation after they had a big run. >> what pullback can we see? >> think about the arc that we

traveled. we were in perpetual motion and then we went down 10% and we got back to the old gains of 4%. then we went into this august swoon. now we're still not -- it's a general stalling. ultimately, i'm still in the cam thap we're going to go below those lows and into the 1800s. >> all right. up next, crude oil is down 10% for the last month. but that's great news for carter. we'll tell you why. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

time for total recall. we take a look back at our open trades. two weeks ago carter thought energy stocks were about to take a tumble. have a listen. >> unless and until they can get above this line, i make the best of it. >> the way to play this is, once again, using options to december 69, 64 put spread. you can spend 1.60. that is a quarter over the distance between the spreads. >> the energy etf is down 4% since the timest trade. carter, what do the charts look like? >> the negative view. crude is not improving.

why dig around the trash and try to find value when the dirtiest words in investing is the word cheap. >> does it look like crude, like we've seen the lows for crude but that they'll bounce around the levels? >> i believe the lows are in. are we going to have a huge ricochet and move up? no. it will take time. there is nothing to suggest that you have to be the lows. it's not going to be a run away bull. it will be a gradual move up. >> the market is incredibly bearish when you take a look at commodity markets in general. the other thing is all of the strokz not priced off $40 oil, folks. that is the stock price. they're priced off the forwards. the forwards is over $50. en that is not a place where many of these companies make any money. many of the companies don't make money at $60. what you have to remember is these companies have significant capex. they're not doing it. basically to survive at these levels. so a lot of the sle is for stocks that are not going to do

well. even if they recover 25% from here. >> the only thing i would think about doing is rolling down-and-out. we're through the long 69 december strike. go out to january. roll that down to the 65's or 64's and take the other strikedown as well. >> they gave me a little confidence. these guys are spot on, actually. i know you pickeded it on the long side. near summer it bottomed. but some stocks that make up these indices look horrible. chevron, exxon, i think you stick with it. fundamentally, i think they're on to it. >> two weeks ago dan made a bearish bet on emerging markets. >> i think can you look out to december expiration here, the fed meeting is december 16th. to me, it doesn't matter what the fed does here. i think it's going down. today when the eem was 35, 30, can you buy the 32 put spread for 70 cents. >> well, emerging markets, they made a comeback.

>> i was targeting the fed meeting. the fed meeting is still on december 16th. december expiration is still december 18th. the stock did sell off 5%. this was almost a double at one point. if you're trading events and options that do decay over time, when you have a double, you look to take money off the table and keep the position intact. right now i paid 70 cents for it. it's worth about 60 here. i'm going to keep it. i have to start managing risk. if the stock goes higher, i may have to re-adjust the strike and like mike said in his energy trade, move it out a little bit. go out to january or february. >> you had a quick down draft. you were down there at 33 and the snap back. directionally -- >> it's going lower. >> it looks that way. >> great. >> and an anti-correlated with rates. rates stabilized. guess what? we still have an important catalyst coming up that could take rates higher. >> all right. up next, tweets and final call from the options pit. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.

wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade.

you got this. we're taking your tweets. can the ibb take the market high with a recovery? they like to rally in q-4 and q-1. carter? >> this is one of great leaders of the past two, three years. then it's one of the great losers of the drawdown. it peaked in july at 400. the lows in that monday, october 24th, down about 30%. we climbed back 25%. we're right against a well established down trend line. if you look to a year to date chart. so i don't think this is going higher. it looks like it is priced where it belongs. but i don't see it leading us anywhere. >> you also have political cross currents. >> political cross currents

started and now they seem to be a universal head wind. i think there is a lot of things going on in the biotech space going into 2016 when this trade is done. the low interest rate environment encouraged a lot of bad behavior. i think the deals are getting tougher to get done here. i agree with him. i think the ibb sees 300 before it sees 365 on the upside. >> what do you think? >> i agree. take a look at the big constituent stocks which got cheap. that is basically the support you find below. but these kind of headwinds don't go away. the political process can take a little time to play out. i don't see it going anywhere. headwinds blilly. >> all right. next up, we have a question from jarrod. with fitabout it products expected to be a good holiday item. is there a good play for upside here? >> they're incredibly expensive. holy smokes. the 29 calls cost almost 10% of the current stock. >> 10%? >> you could sell the strangle,

actually, the january 27 puts and he will sell the 28 calls for 20% of the stock price. that's the implied move between now and january expiration. they don't even report earnings until the first week of february. you're not going to capture that event. i would better think that you should be buying longer dated options than selling these. they're very, very expensive. >> the chart is something out of a horror movie. to come out at 30 and go to 50 quickly and now back to 30 and then to new lows. it's anybody's guess here as ho to how low they go. >> one more. >> the retail trader, what is your favorite dish on thanksgiving? what do you say? >> the turkey, obviously. >> really? >> yeah snch? >> i like the stuffing. >> stuffing all the way. i'm not that fond of turkey. it's dry usually. >> time for "the final call." >> find a place in lowe's for a

breakout. it is range bound. >> i would buy call. >> tesla, i love it but i like the tactical puts calendar. >> our time has expired. i'm melissa lee. >> hi, i'm dana loesch from "the dana show," and over the years, you've seen me interview some pretty cool people, right? today is no different. i'm speaking with dr. nathan bryan. he is one of the leading minds in nitric oxide research, one of the leading minds in the world. now, i recently went through [sighs] i guess a health breakthrough, is what you can call it, with my energy and stamina for myself and my family, as well. this guy is responsible for the science behind that breakthrough. i've been telling everybody who would listen about superbeets. anybody who's gonna listen, i tellem