somebody seems to think not only 52-week high, they think it's going higher. they're going out of april. >> last thoughts, doc, quick? >> i like it. i think people saved on gas, they're going to spend it this weekend. >> have a great thanksgiving. >> you, too. see you on the other side. enjoy and be safe. "power" starts now. >> scott, gentlemen, thank you very much and happy thanksgiving to all of you. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch" along with mandy drury i'm tyler mathisen. it is a big day for data and the big question though is what's it all going to mean for the fed? the court gamble. fan duel and draft kings the big players in fantasy sports taking their case before a judge in new york city. and just before thanksgiving a new e. coli scare. just what we didn't need, but we begin this hour with a rapid update on the economy. let's get to our cnbc senior economics reporter, steve liesman. steve?

>> thanks very much. we have a puzzle here. i have the rapid update of gdp in the fourth quarter but the data which leads to a downgrade also makes economists optimistic. here is the data. q4 tracking 2%. that is down 0.3% because of the data this morning. q3 gdp 2.1%. that's tracking right now. here is the fourth quarter outlook. bank of tokyo mitsubishi at the high end at 2.8%. goldman sachs, barclays at 2%. atlanta fed gdp, 1.8%. morgan stanley at 0.9%. here is the data that brought down the growth forecast despite the down grades though some see reasons for optimism for the holiday shopping season. jobless claims ticking down 12,000 to 260,000. that's back in that low range we've had before making people optimistic about consumers have jobs for the holiday season. durable goods up better than expected, 3%, and here is the big numbers here.

personal income up 0.4% but spending doesn't keep pace. up just 0.1% which can only mean one thing. the savings rate ticks up. 5.6%. so what's the take among the economists? are they wearing rose-colored glasses? stephen stanley says history tells us that a chunk of that savings will eventually get spent whether it's during the christmas shopping season or otherwise and over at capital economics they point out the outlook for real consumption and business investment remains encouraging. so a bit of a quandary right here. you have the data coming down, the gdp numbers down, a big 0.3% to just 2% but because the savings rate is high and the job outlook look pretty good there's optimism for the holiday season and you see that, by the way, in consumer discretionary and capeles whicape -- staples which are along the leaders of the pack. >> a lot of data to get through and you did it. more reaction and what it means for the fed. let's bring in ron insana.

pull it together for us. >> i think it's almost a foregone conclusion given everything we've heard from federal reserve officials that they want to move and they're going to move in december with maybe a quarter point rate hike. i think the bigger question now, given that we think we know what we know, is what the reaction will be. there's a couple things i want to look at closely upon the fed's decision day which is december 16th. number one, will the yield curve flatten or steepen? if it steepens it would suggest bond market investors believe the economy can handle a move by the fed. if it were to flatten, that would suggest they're worried the fed is already moving prematurely. do commodities replait or deflate? the dollar can get stronger and push inflation away from the target. will emerging market currencies be revalued with a dollar? >> do you think -- you've put

forward a lot of things there, ron. do you think there's any one thing that perhaps holds greater weight than the others in terms of what could still stay the fed's hand or would it have to be something absolutely massive at this stage? >> well, i think at this juncture there are a couple things. if the geopolitical tensions were to get so large and accidents like yesterday's were to continue to happen on a more frequent basis and call into question whether or not the european economy and other economies of the world could stand this type of tension, that's an open question. the indicator i would watch is the yield curve. if it flattens as the fed is raising rates, it would tell us bond market investors think inflation will fall and growth will slow with just a single rate hike or a couple rate hikes and i think that would be the yellow or red flag that might keep the fed from doing more as we move into 2016. >> overall, it feels like at this stage the market is sort of just wanting it to happen, right, ron? so perhaps a nonevent for the markets if it does happen but maybe a major negative event if it does not. >> well, i don't know about

that. i think if it doesn't happen, profits -- we got the profit report this morning with gdp, which were negative. valuations in the stock market can stay higher for a longer period of time as well. yes, some people may worry the economy is not in the fed's eyes not strong enough to withstand the rate hike. but it depends what the source of the concern is. if there's too much uncertainty around the world clearly the u.s. is stronger than the rest of the world, that's one thing. if the fed were to say we're about to roll over in the u.s., then it would be a big negative for stocks. >> always good to talk to you. thanks for your take on the issue. >> have a good holiday. >> happy thanksgiving. over to you. >> to the energy market. the weekly rig count released two days early. why? because of thanksgiving. i would not go into thanksgiving, dominic chu, without knowing the rig count. >> i think a lot of people feel the same way. so let's take a look at the

numbers. the weekly rig count. we see a u.s. oil rig count decline by nine to a total of 555 rigs. u.s. oil rig counts for this week down nine to 555. we're down about 1,017 from the same time one year ago. so, again, the trend for lower rig counts continues. this time around down nine rigs total to 555 for baker hughes rig counts. >> thank you. after retaking the city of sinjar in northern iraq, kurdish forces have uncovered a series of tunnels left behind by isis militants. the network of tunnels includes sleeping quarters, wired with lek trelectricity and fortified sandbags. they show two tunnels running several hundred feet and containing boxes of ammunition and medicine. mandy? >> brussels now where metro

services are partially reopening. armed soldiers continue to guard the stations as belgium remains on high alert. joining us is tara palmeri. yesterday you were talking to us about how a lot of people have got threat fatigue. what's the feeling today? >> reporter: today you see a lot more people out on the street, and it seems that people are really trying to get back to normal life, but it's still jarring to see so many police, to see armed guards and armed vehicles circling through. this past week 20% of the people that worked in the european commission teleworked probably because their kids were home from school but i do know some people who still haven't sent their kids back to school despite the fact that they're open because it's still not clear how we're safing toder ton we were yesterday. >> i'm seeing reports how the

government of france has offered financial aid to a number of businesses and cultural sites that have been negatively affected because people aren't going out so much, cafes, restaurants, that kind of thing. they're offering tax extensions, loan extensions. are you seeing a similar thing in belgium or is that something that might still come? >> reporter: it may still come, i'm sure, but right now -- i'm hearing from friends and colleagues that they are going back out again. no one wants to feel like hiding, and we're kind of tired of it. we want to move on with our lives. we don't want to feel that we're being, you know -- that we're living in fear. there is still a fear when you walk around because you know that there is the highest level terror threat but at the same time you have to resume your life. you can't live like this. >> you certainly can't. what do you think has been the most surprising thing? i'm assuming for a lot of you it's the first time you've experienced anything like this. what is the surprise to you about the reaction of people?

>> well, i was actually sort of surprised by how relaxed some people are about it. i mean, i'm from new york and new jersey area, and i feel on edge i think because i am not so certain of this government and how they're handling the situation. i wish there was more communication coming out, and i don't understand why they made some decisions to close down all the stores, the metros, and the schools, and then to open it the next day when there is still a terrorist on the run. i think that might just be because i'm an ex-pat living in a new city but i am nervous and i know others are as well. there are a lot of ex-pats living in brussels. this is the capital of the eu so people are coming from all over the world to work here. so we're all sort of wondering is belgium able to deal with this? is the brussels government as well able to deal with this. there's a lot of tension and i know a lot of people who work in the institutions have stayed home and also just the location

of the commission. it's located above a major transit hub, a subway system. people are a little nervous about where the buildings are located. >> i'm not sure i'd want to go on that subway. thank you for joining us one again and stay safe. over to you. ty. >> fan duel and draft kings are thafg hair day in court. this is a live picture of the new york city courthouse where they are squaring off against the new york state attorney general. at issue is whether or not the sports sites can continue to operate in new york. earlier this month new york's ag sent cease and desist letters to those two companies labeling them as illegal gambling operations. a judge will now decide whether daily fantasy constitutes gambling or a game of skill. a decision could come down at any moment and we'll bring it to you the moment it happens. mandy? >> we certainly will. still ahead on "power lunch," we are gearing up for the turkey day rush.

millions are expected to take to the skies this thanksgiving so the question is are the airlines ready? we have a live report for you coming up ahead on "power lunch." plus, some good news if you're in the market for a new home. some key data that you need to hear. also, a big food warning to tell you about before you sit down to that turkey feast. all the full details when "power lunch" returns. announcer: if you'd give thanks for a better night's sleep...

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm mandy drury. deere reporting a beat. equipment sales will slow in coming quarters says the company. the shares are up by 3.6%. hormel announcing a two for one stock split early next year. shares are higher by nearly 3%. and stooandard & poor's cutting yahoo!'s credit rating. shares not phafazed by that, up 1%. we're watching shares of weight watchers. up by 4%. one of the month's biggest gainers among the russell 2000 small cap stocks. now, since oprah's firm made a $43.2 million investment back in october, the stock has gained nearly 300%.

her investment would be worth nearly $165 million so a huge gain for oprah and weight watchers helping to drive some of the gains in the russell 2000 small cap index. >> thank you very much. first it was chipotle, now another popular chain dealing with an e. coli scare. jane wells is on the case. hi, jane. >> reporter: hey, tyler. i don't know about you but i live on costco rotisserie chick chicken. in this case it was the rotisserie chicken salad which includes veggies, mayo, our ingredients. we're talking about 19 people in seven states falling ill. the cdc says 14 of those who got sick ate the chicken salad in the week before they fell ill. last known case so far they aid it november 3rd. we may not be out of the woods. in both this case and chipotle where 45 people fell ill, the

exact ingredient has not been discovered. in both cases the outbreak struck over the same period of time, approximately. coincidentally costco's located in seattle, it's headquarters, which was in the heart of the chipotle outbreak although only one costco customer in the state of washington fell ill. first, there were different strains of e. coli. the costco strain or the strain attributed to costco is more serious because two people had kidney failure. costco shares, look at this, no big whoop. investors not reacting very much. third, the pr reaction. chipotle has put out at least two statements on how it's handling the situation. costco has put out no statements. no press releases. we have called.

we're still waiting for them to say something, they have not, though they have spoken to the cdc. maybe it's a good thing to remember as i get choked up about this story because i'm thinking about food, for thanksgiving some basic rules. make sure your turkey finishes cooking at 165 degrees. take it out at 155 or 160 because it will rise a little bit. wash that fresh produce and don't let that turkey sit out for more than two hours at room temperature before you put the leftovers in the fridge because as we know the left overs are the best part. back to you. happy thanksgiving. >> same to you. thank you very much. there are less than three hours left in the session, but get this, less than 25 trading days left for the entire year. so how should you position yourself for the rest of 2015? we will break out our year-end playbook ahead. but first. up next, "power pitch" gets its paws on a device that lets you play with your pet remotely. >> what's your stealing the

market strategy? >> my big kirn is it's one camera that sits in one place. >> or call it a dog. stay tuned to find out. ♪ how else do you think he gets around so fast? take the reins this holiday and get the mercedes-benz you've always wanted during the winter event. hurry, offers end soon. starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the (vo) rush hounose.und here but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity.

because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. bob dylan. to improve my language skills, i've read all of your lyrics. you've read all of my lyrics? i can read 800 million pages per second. that's fast. my analysis shows your major themes are that time passes. and love fades. that sounds about right. i have never known love. maybe we should write a song together. i can sing. you can sing? do be bop. be bop do.

do be do be do. do do do be do. this bale of hay cannot be controlled. when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. chase for business. so you can own it. welcome back to "power lunch." i'm mandy drury. time now for the "power pitch" where one entrepreneur has only 60 seconds to convince a panel of experts that his business has what it takes to be the next big thing.

>> i am the ceo and co-founder of petcube. at petcube we're on a mission to improve pet owners' lives with technology. we started with this camera which is the best way to stay connected to your pet. it allows you to talk to your pet and play with your pet with a built in laser toy. pet market is huge. we already made our $1 million in sales through online and now we're entering retail. for me the most exciting part of the whole petcube story is our model app which is a community of pet lovers. think about all the hilarious videos of pets chasing a laser that people post there. this is a new and exciting way to stay close to your pet. go get it at petcube.com. just in time to bring your pet

this toy. >> welcome to "power pitch." you just saw the pitch, now it's time to meet the panel. joining us is angel investor kelly hoey. also with us is dr. katy nelson. she's a veterinarian and host of "the pet show with dr. katy." and we have alicia syrett a board member of the new york angels. she advises and investors in over two dozen startups. thank you very much for joining us today. you're in the hot seat, sir. kelly, first question goes to you. >> i'm really impressed. $1 million in sales already. so my big question is kind of got your go to market strategy which was online. off holiday strategy, but what's your scaling the market strategy? >> so our first step in scaling will be just leveraging those customer reviews and some of our

power users, but for the big picture, this is a model similar to what go pro does. you have seen they are using their content and our content is super viral, so we bet on that. >> dr. kate? >> as a vet trarian i would love to recommend it but with the price point how do you justify it against some wearable technologies that give you more information? >> this is a pretty average price point for a home camera, surveillance camera, and it actually saves you a lot of energy and a lot of nerves. so i think it's totally doable. it's not that super expensive. >> i went on amazon where you distribute your product and i notice that 20 t% of the review have a one-star rating citing issues around connectivity, customer service, and picture quality. what do you say to perspective customers who really like the idea of the product but go on the site and are potentially

discouraged about the ratings? >> unfortunately we were launching this on kickstarter and we were so houried to deliver it to our backers that there were a percentage of devices that had some issues at the beginning. now most of those issues are fixed. so customers are happy and we just had our amazon review and they had great reviews from amazon certified fine reviy eie. >> dr. katey? >> my big concern is has one camera that sits in one place. if you live in a tiny apartment that might be fine. i have a house that's three stories and a pretty big place. i cannot expect my pets to sit in one place all day long. is this something you're going to be able to down the line have multiple cameras to set up in a network where you can see all the interfaces? >> absolutely. you can do it at this moment. you can set up as many cameras as you want. >> do you have to buy them all

individually? >> yes. and this way we have voice so you actually if you have only one camera you can call your pet from different room. >> we all heard what jaroslav had to say. >> i know there are a number of pet owners but who are the number of pet owners that will spend $199 from the product. we have heard issues on reviews and connectivity but there's a great team and we are neurotic about our pets. let's all admit it, so i'm in. >> we have one in. what about you, dr. katy. >> i'm going to have to say i am out because of the fact that it sits in one place and itch a hard enough time getting my clients to spend money on their heartworm prevention much less $200 on a camera that's going to sit there. >> i am concerned about quality issues and i think there are more features that need to be added but i really think this is a great team and i think they have made a lot of headway with sales and great distribution. so i'm going to bet on them and go in. >> we've got two ins and one

out. what's your reaction? >> in five years from now the pet market is going to be completely changed. so wait until then and, you know, if you have a pet, you should definitely get yourself a petcube. >> thank you very much for joining us. so the founder of petcube but also to our panelists, kelly, dr. katy and alicia and that is today's "power pitch." so do you agree with the panel. you can let us know if you are in or out on petcube. tweet us #powerpitch. for more just visit the "power lunc lunch".cnbc.com. >> the seven-year note auction was best of breed, completely $90 billion in a holiday week of supply. you see the chart. after the 10 dhirt, 11:30 eastern auction ended yields came down.

wasn't only the seven year, look at the ten year. but the real focus today seems to be what's going on in foreign exchange. mario draghi continues to make promises. rates continue to get more negative. look at a one and two-day of the euro versus dollar. the two-day is fascinating. we came back close to unchanged today but still with reference to yesterday's lows, we are having a problem getting above it. the final chart, what everybody is looking at which side of 100 is the dollar index going to close? remember, march 13th, we closed above it. before you have to go back to early 2003. mandy, back to you. >> we're getting closer. >> have a happy thanksgiving. >> 9971 for the dxy. happy thanksgiving to you as well, rick. thank you. up next, a big travel alert to tell you about before you hit the road for the holiday. we're headed live to united airlines command center. first, gold is to the downside on the strength of the dollar.

we have the metals close coming your way when "power lunch" returns. in panama, which is a city of roughly 2 million people, we are having 5,000 new cars being sold every month. this is a very big problem for us with respect to fast and efficient transportation. it's kind of a losing proposition to keep going this way. we are trying to tackle the problem with several different modes. one of them is the brand new metro.

we had a modest forecast: 110,000 passengers per day in the first line. we are already over 200,000. our collaboration with citi has been very important from the very beginning. citi was our biggest supporter and our only private bank. we are not only being efficient in the way we are moving people now, we are also more amicable to the environment. people have more time for the family and it's been one of the most rewarding experiences to hear people saying: "the metro has really changed my life."

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hello, everyone. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update. turkey releasing audio recordings from a moment before they shot down a russian fighter jet. in response to the paris attacks, the lower house of parliament has voted to extend air strikes in syria. general mills is going cage-free. the maker of betty crocker and progressow soup says it will use only cage-free eggs by 2025. the announcement follows similar moves by other companies, including kellogg's. some scary moments for the operator of this backhoe demolishing an old smokestack in alabama. while remove bricks the stack crumbles. look at that. thankfully the operator was not hurt but that -- look at that. he's okay though.

we checked. we made sure. that's the news update this hour. he has a lot to be thankful for, ty. >> that was amazing. >> it is. >> good thing he was out of the way. dominic chu now with a market flash. >> did you see him try to turn out of the way? that was stunning video. all eyes on retail stocks ahead of the black friday. we're getting neck deep into the shopping season. thes pdr retail etf is up by over 1%. it's on track for a fourth straight day of gains and crossed above the 50-day average price for first time since early this month. we've seen a lot of weakness as of late. among the leaders, guess, sears, burlington stores, finish line all up between 2% and 8%. of course, this is interesting because are traders getting p positioned for some kind of buy? the rumor event for the season. we'll see if it pans out. >> sears up 8% on the day. you don't see that very often. thank you,.com. let . let's go to gold prices and

jackie deangelis. >> gold down a little less than half a percent hanging out at the $1,070 area. it's a critical level of support. we had expiration yesterday, geopolitical issues causing a little volatility. for the week we're about flat. for the month, remember, we're down almost 8%. dollar strength if it continues to persist is going to be a problem not just for gold but the other metals and commodities as well. >> thank you very much. let's take a look at the markets now. the dow, the s&p, the nasdaq, and the russell. it's a very, very small trading range there for the dow. i think, ty, we've been moving in a 53-point range which is the smallest for 2015 so far. over to you. >> all right. thank you very much, mandy. rbc capital markets releasing its 2016 global market trajectories looking ahead to everything from central bank policy to geopolitical impacts on the markets. jonathan golub is the chief u.s. marketing strategist. welcome back. good to see you. i'm just going to lay it out

there for us, tell us what you want to tell us about your outlook for 2016? why don't we start with the economy and go through stocks and interest rates? >> so i think that there's really two stories here. one is that i think the economy remains stubbornly slower than we'd like to see it, and the stock market does perfectly fine anyway. and so the big story -- there are really two stories underlying the economy which is the demographics around the world are supporting slower economic growth and that china has so much excess capacity that the build out of infrastructure is going to weigh on materials, names, and the like for probably a while. >> if that build out of infrastructure is going to slow. >> it's going to remain somewhat disappointing. >> yes. >> what's interesting is companies for the last several years have done a brilliant job of deliveringe ps even when there wasn't great revenue growth and we think that will continue to be the case. we think you will have something like 6% to 7% eps growth which

is pretty healthy -- >> how -- is it that they are taking costs out, buying stocks back, a little of both. >> a little of both. so in the last couple years you have had almost 2% of shares bought back and that's slowing a bit. but the other thing is it's not that they're cutting costs. if you're running revenues at 3.5% and you move expenses up at 2.5%, that's margin improvement and this year remember there's a huge habit from oil. that goes away. >> the big story after yesterday's numbers on corporate profits, that they were down, first time they've been down this way since the recession years, 2009. >> right. >> are you worried about a corporate profit recession or do you think that picture is going to get better? >> i think it's misunderstood. this year we're about zero profit growth and it sounds horrible but the drag from lower oil prices was 7%. so if you do the s&p excluding the energy and i know you can't

throw out the things you don't like, but it would have been close to 7%. why does it matter? if you don't have oil prices fall the way they did last year, they dropped by more than 50%, you're looking at a trend which is 6% to 7%. that's what we think we're going to get. we don't think the trend is going to change, just oil. >> you said when we began sort of slow but steady economic growth, maybe not quite what we'd want by which i'm just going to extrapolate you probably need somewhere between 1.8% and 2.4% growth. >> something like that is probably right. maybe a little better but in that ballpark. >> let's talk about stocks then. where do you see, you know, goldman sachs yesterday or the day before said basically s&p flat in 2016 right at about 21 o 2100. >> our target for the end of '16 is 2300. that's 9.5% upside over -- throughout the course of next year. >> is that front loaded, back loaded, or even. what do you think?

you have something called the election in november. >> right. and it's really hard to see how -- you know, i don't know if i'm so cute and thoughtful to think about is it going to be the first quarter or the second quarter. the real big issue is the drag from oil is dragging the first and second quarter and by the end of the year, assuming oil doesn't collapse further, it goes away and becomes a slight tailwind and the same thing for financials. they actually gain some momentum. so if anything it would be in the back half but i think we're looking at a pretty healthy environment. >> great, as always, to see you. have a good thanksgiving. >> you as well. stocks are on track for a fourth week of thanks week gains. joining us are two money managers. nancy tangler, chief investment officer at heartland financial and noah black steen from dynamic funds. nancy, what should be our year-end strategy? >> between now and the end of the year, mandy.

>> exactly. >> i'm a big believer we are back in a stock pickers market. i think many people believe that, but you can see it just in the performance of individual securities that make up the largest holdings of etfs. the individual securities have done significantly better or significantly worse than the etf. if you're making valuation calls and you're focused on high-quality companies, i would be adding to those and moving out of my etfs going into 2016. >> and i see talking of individual stock names that you do like a number of health care companies that either haven't done particularly well this year, maybe been hurt by the stronger dollar. you don't see any political risk going into the presidential elections next year? >> i do. i think some of that is already reflected and as -- i said the last time i was on your show, i believe i talked about those stocks and they have done significantly better than the market just in the last six weeks. but value investors, and that's what i am, we end up repeating

ourselves. sometimes for decades. this looks and smells a lot like the election -- bill clinton's election when hillary clinton and bill actually went after the pharmaceutical companies. that was a great generational buying opportunity, and i think you're seeing that again in some of the very large cap biotechs and large cap pharma. so we're adding to our holdings. >> noah, would you beg to differ with that. that perhaps the risk isn't fully in the price yet and that it will be a difficult year for them ahead? >> well, health care as a catchall is a bit of a problem. it encompasses so many different areas. you have had united health care talking about backing out of some of the exchanges because of questionable practices with the affordable care act and is the affordable care act going to be profitable for the hmos? then you get tweets from democratic candidates about is the m&a cycle over for the hmos. in terms of the specialty pharma

stocks which have been growth through acquisition, growth through acquisition, not only the law of large numbers catching up on those companies but real questions about what it was the business model? was it cutting costs or jacking up prices. starting to question some of the stocks in those areas. if you look at the roll-ups or the hmos, there's more questions. i think that there's no -- we don't know who is going to win the election, but it's hard to deny that hillary clinton is a front-runner right now. >> sure, right. >> and she's constantly tweeting about health care. you can have a cloud on the health care sector, until there's a resolution, i think there are some names in biotechnology you want to own but you have to be stock specific. because the big bull market that saw every health care company go up is over. >> i agree. >> that's your top pick, sales force.com. we don't have time to go into more detail on that, but nancy

and noah, thank you very much for your thoughts today, and if you want more, go to powerlunch.cnbc.com to see why nancy is positive on energy as well as the sector. that's powerlunch.cnbc.com. tyler? >> thank you very much. new home sales for october came out today. analysts watching these numbers very closely after a steep drop back in september. who is watching them as well? diana olick live in d.c. to break down the numbers. hi, di. >> hi, ty. the drop was steeper than we thought because september sales were revised down by 21,000 making it the lowest pace since july of 2014. now we're back up to 495,000 annualized pace which is average for the year but still 200,000 off the 30-year average. let's talk prices because this is where we're all focused now given the potential for rising mortgage rates. the median price of a newly built home sold in october came down 6% from a year ago to $281,500 which is the lowest

since september of last year. this, however, was after hitting a record high of just over $307,000 last month. now, supply is also coming down which is not what we need given that the number of existing homes for sale is still incredibly weak and just fell again in october. yes, these new home sales numbers are volatile and there is a wide margin of error but we're still seeing builders focus on the higher end. that's where the activity is. we saw in the mortgage application numbers out today that the average loan size hit the highest on record. some of the big public builders like dr horton are building lower priced entry level homes but others like leonard and pulte are skewing more expensive. supply is what we need. back to you guys. >> thank you very much. take a look at interstate 80 in northern california. this morning digging out from the snow and freezing rain from a big winter storm. it is now making its way across the united states. they need that snow and snow

pack up in the mountains there in california and the mountain west. so what to expect and what it means for your thanksgiving travel. we'll give it to you straight ahead on "power lunch." so what's your news? i got a job! i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition!

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welcome back to "power lunch." seven of the ten s&p 500 sectors are positive in the month of november led by financials. now, powering the gains this month are shares of plum creek up 24% and this is a takeover story here, but then there's charles schwab, the discount retail broker up by over 10% just in november. schwab is tracking for the best month since february when it gained over 12%. interesting story there, that schwab, one of the best performers in the large company financials. >> thank you very much, dom. almost 47 million of us will be on the move today heading to thanksgiving meals tomorrow. but a big winter storm is expected to bring some heavy snow and ice for some travelers. here is the weather channel's jen delgado. >> well, it looks like we are in

for a mess for thanksgiving and we're going to start it off showing you the forecast for tomorrow. all the things really start to come into place. we have the cold air and the moisture coming through and these two are going to combine to create problems, especially for some parts of the plains and the midwest. you see the purple area here. this is actually the freezing rain. we're going to start to see this happening. this is going to impact if you're going to be traveling on the roadways or even flying out. so the west notice we will see some snow around for parts of western kansas as well as into colorado. this all continues on friday, but if you notice the freezing rain becomes even more expansive and we're going to see it impacting areas like kansas city as well as even into oklahoma city down to parts of texas. we move it ahead to saturday. a lot of people trying to get back home or even doing some holiday shopping. the freezing rain is still going to be a big story as that front is going to be making its way over towards the east. that cold air is in place and that means you're going to be trying to drive on these roadways and you're not going to get around because we're going to be looking at areas of basically a sheet of ice.

some of these locations could be picking up a quarter to a half inch of ice accumulation. that is enough to take down power lines but you can see the area that we're really concerned about. some of those areas including quarter to a half along interstate 70 east of omaha as well as up towards 35. so be careful out there. >> thank you so much. and while all of that is happening the airlines are bracing for one of the busiest travel days of the year. so how do they handle the millions of passengers and the weather all while managing potential security threats as well. phil lebeau is live at united operations center in chicago. a lot going on, right, phil? >> reporter: a lot going on, mandy, but the good news is not only at united but with other airlines, it's been smooth so far. this is the ramp up we will see that culminates on sunday with that being the busiest travel day of the year for airlines. so far we've seen, yes, an increased presence of security. we saw a report earlier today at l.a.x. where you see a little bit more presence of security officers there, but no issues to

report. yes, we've seen longer lines but that's to be expected with how many people they're playing. 25 million over these ten days that wrap around thanksgiving and 10% of the people flying for this holiday, they're going international and i get this question a lot over the last couple days, what's happening with flights over to europe? are people canceling? are flights being canceled because nobody is going there? that's not happening. united's flights to europe are still full. the same thing from other airlines. yes, they are still seeing strong demand despite a few cancellationins from a few peop going there. >> we've seen a small impact. we've given flexibility to our customers. if they want to change their plans we can move to a different destination. >> reporter: as i mentioned, sunday is the busiest travel day of the year. here at united they're planning to handle more than a half million passengers and, by the way, sunt is not just from 6:00 to 10:00, they're adding more

red eye flights primarily to the hubs in houston, denver, and here in chicago, places that usually don't get as many red eye flights. they're adding those because there's greater demands. if you look at shares of united and other major airlines, they're under a little pressure, fractionally lower but overall they're not doing as bad as they were yesterday when they were under substantial pressure. >> thank you very much, phil lebeau. just ahead small business making a big bet this holiday. "power lunch" will be right back.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm mandy drury. here are this hour's power points. belgium starting to come alive again after shutting down due to an imminent terror threat. the subways are running and schools are open. fan duel and draft kings are both in court in new york city today seeking approval to operate. and rbc's jonathan golub called for the s&p to pick up 9% in the year ahead. if you missed any of those stories in the past hour, visit the site at powerlunch.cnbc.com. today how one company is

treating patients who suffer from neurological disorders with the healing power of music. >> the treatment really focuses on neurologic music therapy. recent advancements in nurow imaging has shown us music engages our entire brain and there's no other stimulus on earth with so much global activation. it can help us to create new connections and strengthen old connections to function such as movement, language, and cognition again. we treat conditions such as traumatic brain injury, stroke, parkinson's disease, huntington's disease, the autism spectru spectrum. the research and the neuroimaging shows us that neurologic music therapy is clinically effective. 2.5 million people each year suffer from a traumatic brain

injury or stroke. that's not counting the rate of parkinson's and new cases of cerebral palsy and autism so the market is huge and we know the need is out there. >> and in our next hour, the booming business of drones. amazon and go pro just some of the names who are trying to lead the way. that's in the next hour of "power lunch." for more on our "game changers," go to powerlunch.cnbc.com. it is not just the big retailers like walmart and target that are banking on a huge holiday weekend. small businesses gearing up for some of their biggest shopping days of the year, and kate rogers is live in new york city with more. hey, kate. >> reporter: that's right. it's called small business saturday. independent mom and pop shops are really gearing up and hoping for big crowds. that's up next after the break on "power lunch." it's time for the "your business" entrepreneur of the week. kelly jackson is an optometrist

who owns table mountain vision in golden, colorado. she's a leader of the shop local movement. she and the town have big plans for small business saturday, including a 5k race and a parade. for more watch "your business" at 7:30 on msnbc. this is more than just a town. this is our home. and small business saturday... is more than just a day. it's our day... to shop small at the places we love... with the people we love. for stuff we can't get anywhere else. and food that tastes like home. because the money we spend here... can help keep our town growing. this saturday is small business saturday, let's all shop small. for the neighborhood, the town, the home we love. shop small this saturday.

in panama, which is a city of roughly 2 million people, we are having 5,000 new cars being sold every month. this is a very big problem for us with respect to fast and efficient transportation. it's kind of a losing proposition to keep going this way. we are trying to tackle the problem with several different modes. one of them is the brand new metro. we had a modest forecast: 110,000 passengers per day in the first line. we are already over 200,000. our collaboration with citi has been very important from the very beginning. citi was our biggest supporter and our only private bank.

we are not only being efficient in the way we are moving people now, we are also more amicable to the environment. people have more time for the family and it's been one of the most rewarding experiences to hear people saying: "the metro has really changed my life." i'm melissa lee. coming up on "power lunch," we're one month to christmas so are you, the consumer, poised to spend? plus we see all the sales on black friday. how do retailers come up with these prices and why are they often different for the very same item? and the fda says one drug to

treat muscular dystrophy does not work well and has too many side effects. >> thank you so much. it is not just walmart and amazon that are gearing up for this weekend's shopping festivities. this time of year is huge for small businesses. kate rogers is live at a children's bookstore in manhattan. hi, kate. >> reporter: hi, mandy. that's right. it might be among one of the biggest sales days of the year for peter glassman who owns new york city based books of wonder. glassman has been in business for a whopping 35 years and he really encourages consumers to spend money in the neighborhoods where they live. >> the most important reason is because it supports your communities. 80% of every dollar you spend in a locally owned business stays in the community. whereas 70% of what you spend in a nonlocally owned business leaves the community. by spending money with locally owned businesses, you keep the money in your town, your city,

your neighborhood. >> and that message definitely resonates with consumers according to american express. shoppers spent a major, major $14.3 billion last year on small business saturday and what's more, this year 80% say they're willing to spend a little bit more money on a higher priced item, high eer ticket eye eitem comes from a locally owned store. swerve fitness is also taking place in this year's small business saturday. >> you are owe goal for participating in small business saturday is really to engage with our community and to raise awareness about how important it is to support local small businesses. >> so back here at books of wonder, glassman has been offering discounts, blasting out messages on social media and bringing in children's authors this saturday to read to the customers who have kept him in business for so long. tyler and mandy, back over to you. >> go small, go local. thank you for that, kate rogers. >> i brought you this because you're so chilly. >> my old rag.

>> and she just tossed it on the floor so she looks glamorous as she always does. >> it is freezing. >> almost as cold as outside. >> have a great thanksgiving. >> have a happy and safe thanksgiving. >> i'll be joining melissa lee in a moment. >> thanks, tyler. stay warm, mandy. it's 2:00 p.m. on wall street on the day before thanksgiving. everybody is watching retail stocks. take a look at the xrt, higher today by 1.5% outperforming the broader markets. it's on track for a fourth straight day of gains. let's look at how different types of retail companies have been performing. it's been a struggle for macy's down 38% so far this year but higher by 2.5% today. simon property, stock is up 3% for the year. eking out a gain today. hasb hasbro, a strong performer, up 37%. expecting a big holiday season because it's making the "star

wars" toys. there's a report they're already running out a month before christmas. take a look at that up 1%. and swoosh, take a look at nike having a big day. the stock is up 28% in the last six months. this year is a new 52-week year in the stock. and consumers may have more money to spend as jack prices keep falling. jackie deangelis is live at the nymex. >> aaa has been calling for $2 gas for some time and it seems we're getting close to that range earlier than expected. the national average for a gallon of regular $2.06. that's down from $2.81 at this time last year. these prices the lowest that we've seen since 2008 at this time of year. already half or more than half of u.s. gas stations are selling under $2. the averages by state, 18 states are under that $2 mark. aaa predicting nearly $42 million americans will take a road trip this holiday. that's higher than last year by a little bit less than a percent. so at this point it doesn't look

like these terror threats are having any kind of chilling impact and consumers are taking advantage of this savings. >> thank you very much. and sticking with that theme just how healthy is the consumer side fts economy right now? and how might lower gasoline prices be fuelling it? >> that's definitely a plus but we have a mixed message. the first is the consumer sentiment numbers, the michigan numbers, they're up from the prior numbers. three straight months of increases but they're down from the preliminary numbers and we also had a hit yesterday on the conference board. in the head a little unclear and maybe the issues of terrorism are playing a role. and we saw that perhaps in the october spending numbers which came in just up a tenth. we've been pretty healthy. if you look at real spending, we've been run being 3%. not too shabby after that lousy first quarter which followed the lousy first quarter in 2014. but the last two, the second and third quarter, pretty healthy. the other thing i like in

today's data were the wage gains. we were up 0.6%. pretty healthy monnumbers. let's put it together. you have pretty high income levels but low spending. what does that mean? it means the savings rate shot up. we're now at 5.6% which is a three-year high. what does that mean? it means people have job gains pretty healthy. income levels pretty healthy, but spending not so healthy. it means that if they want to spend in the upcoming holiday season -- >> they could. >> money is there. it depends if the bargains are there. it depends if they're motivated to spend. they have the financial fitness to do it. whether or not they have the mental willingness, that's up to them. >> yeah. are they paying down debt? most recently some of the numbers of consumer indebtedness were up. >> but the per capita debt numbers are pretty well controlled. they're back to levels we saw before the crisis. in general the consumer because of low interest rates from the

fed and their unwillingness to take on new books, their financial books are in better order than in the past. a big question is you kind of want to see -- and people get mad at me when you see this, the willingness to take on debt to me is a sign of financial confidence. >> absolutely. >> we don't want to have a debt-fueled spending binge. we've been there, done that. it doesn't end well. some willingness to take on some financial debt. why? because i believe my income will be higher in the future. i believe the future will be overall brighter. that's a sign of confidence and it could fuel some spending growth. better though is to have current spending taken out of current income. >> i have this theory and it's probably unscientific as most of thigh remember is are, we're over stored, too many stores, and over stuffed, we have too much stuff and we don't need another whatever it is. >> i would like to recommend that theory you keep quiet about until after december. >> until after the holidays.

>> you're right though. i think that there are issues about that, but one thing we find and we talked to courtney reagan about this who sits a couple cubicles away, people are more and more looking for things like experiences. >> yes. >> give a concert ticket, a restaurant -- >> i totally agree. i would rather do that, i have that, or -- >> you could give your wife a day at the spa. >> i do need that. but i will be overstuffed tomorrow. i guarantee that. >> we hope so, ty. take a look at shares of sony down by 1.5%. giving an underdate on sales figures for the playstation 4. >> sony announcing its ps4 has sold 30.2 million units of that console over the past year. that's a huge increase from the 20.2 million units sony said it had sold as of march 1st. sony cut the price of the

playstation$4 by $50 making it the same as the xbox one to help maintain buying momentum. it puts sony's device firmly ahead of microsoft. microsoft hasn't released sales numbers since last november when it announced 10 million units sold. today's news of shoppers' enthusiasm for sony's console bodes well for gamemakers. act vision electronic arts and take two interactive could all benefit from those purchasing power. since the console went on sale two years ago, sony shares are up about 58%. even though they are lower today. and one factor that will perhaps help sony over the rest of the holiday shopping season is the fact it recently announced it will make its ps2 games work on the new console. that backwards xcompatibility i always a big selling factor.

>> thank you. let's get to dominic chu for a market flash. >> we're watching small cap stocks, that russell 2000 index tracks for the second straight months of gains. month to date it's outperforming the s&p 500 and the dow. among the stocks helping to lift, weight watchers, over 65% to the upside. again, this time of year, melissa, some bulls point to the fact small caps are outperforming and they say that may bode well for the remainder of the year. >> and weight watchers and the like, this is their time, dom, this time of year. >> i'm going to be eating a lot of carbs for the next few days. >> me, too. here is what's on the thanksgiving menu for the rest of "power lunch." the man who manages billions and billions of dollars for pimco will tell us the one thing you absolutely need to be veg in. and a december so bad people are clamoring for a drug to treat it even though the fda says it does not work. we're looking at the stocks the hedge funds own. should you own them, too? all that and much more coming up

on "power lunch." narrator: when you see this truck,

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one of the world's biggest bond funds says get ready for returns in this area. let's bring in mark from pimco. it's great to see you. it's fun to say equity like returns but in reality the s&p 500 has been flat for the year. what area of bond land could at least match that performance if

not outpmp. >> actually a diversified portfolio of investment grade and high yield corporate bonds can earn roughly 5% to 7% which is roughly an equity return. importantly, bonds can do it with a third to half the volatility of equities. we're in a unique period where we haven't seen these yields in six years. it's a one in six year event. importantly, there's catalysts for corporate bonds to outperform. typically as rates rise, credit spreads tend to tighten. we think that's going to be the case with the fed lifting off next month and importantly at higher interest rates we should see less supply. a lot of the supply we've seen has been companies trying to get out of the fed and these higher yields, particularly given what's happening around the world with low interest rates, you will see more foreign buying of corporate bonds in 2016.

so credit and corporate bonds is set to outperform going forward. >> okay. you mentioned a diversifiy eied portfolio of corporate bonds and high yield bonds. there are still signs of distress in the energy market. chesapeake bonds last week were trading at their lowest levels in a long time. i'm wondering what your take is on high yield in general and the drag from the energy sector and where you think, which sectors you think within high yield are quote, unquote, safe. >> mewe've been focusing on developed markets as opposed to emerging markets and we've been focused in the u.s. on domestic businesses. we've been underweight energy and metals and mining and underweight emerging markets. our focus has been on the consumer and housing. we can still get those returns running a relatively conservative portfolio focused on housing, housing related sectors, building materials, health care, as well as reits and banks and financials. there's a way to actually invest

through active management in the corporate bond market where you can take a lot less default risk than the overall market by focusing on where the fundamentals are most healthy and the fundamentals are best now in housing, financials, and the consumer. >> okay. you know, with what is going on around the world, mark, there's always or typically you see some sort of flight to safety. bonds in general are a flight to safety and i'm wondering if you see that tilt even more so as people are looking to move money away from other markets either equity markets or bond markets and move here to the u.s. is that one of the reasons why you think there's going to be foreign money flowing into the u.s. bond market? >> yes. if you look at all over the world, qe is in vogue, and what that's causing is low yields in japan, low yields in europe, low yields for that matter in most developed markets and so investors can move into the u.s. market and earn midsingle digit returns which compares very favorable particularly if you believe that the dollar will continue to appreciate, which is our view, that the dollar should

strengthen moderately throughout 2016. we've got this economic divergence. we've also got monetary policy divergence. again, active management can play a huge role in adding value for clients. >> mark, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you. happy thanksgiving. >> tyler, over to you. >> a couple business headlines at this hour. the two new hewlett pack ards are trading in different directions today. after releasing earnings and guidance, the old hp, printer and computermaker missed on estimates and guided lower. hp enterprise though holding up better today as you see there. up by about 2.66%. tivo earned 6 cents a share, 2 cents below estimates but sales were better thanks to subscriber growth. and guess, it's no guess we're here, beating estimates on earnings and sales, the stock up 6.25%. speaking of retail,

retailers are getting ready for black friday with many stores promising big discounts but it can be tricky figuring out if you're getting a deal. check out prices for a playstation 4. this is what our crack staff scoured the web for in circumstance lars at walmart. it's $299 with the uncharted bundle. $299.99 at toys "r" us but only if you buy it in the store and $349.99 at game stop but it is with the "star wars" battlefront bundle with the free case. joining us is mark bernanke, marketing professor. it's great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving to you. you know, i was reading an article the other day, and they're saying that price volatility peaks around this time of year, that's when prices move around a lot. what should consumers expect in terms of how competitive it will be this year? >> it's going to be more competitive than ever, and the

reason is, of course, because there's inventory is built up, and we have a shopping season where there's greater competition and you know what? don't depend on any help from the retailers because who wants to be comparison shopped? the answer, melissa, is nobody. >> nobody likes to do math when they're shopping, mike, and that's exactly what the retailers are asking you to do. there are things called stacked promotions. you walk in, it's already washged down 20%, then you take another 40% offer and you got to do the math to see whether or not you're getting an actual deal. the real reason why they're doing this though is then you don't have to price match. it's harder to do so. what are some of the other sort of tricks of the trade that retailers will employ on the consumer out there this black frid friday? >> one of them is to use the price versus the percentage off. you know, $25 off versus 30%.

what does that mean? who the heck knows. you mentioned stackable prices. that's always a concern. and the idea of comparison pricing, oh, wait a minute, comparison with what? are you comparing it to somebody else? are you comparing it to the list price? it's an impossibility to do and as we know, of course, price volatility is all over the place. can you have regular prices? please. the answer is no. we need calculators, computers. i get fatigued just even thinking about it, and that's because nobody wants to be price shopped. you know what happens? i'll tell you what happens and that's you almost buy on instinct. you buy like it's an impulse purchase and that's what the retailers want. >> isn't that, mike, sort of what you have to do here because to melissa's point a moment ago, you walk in and it will say 25% and then take an additional 40% off. percents off of what? off of what initial price and

how do you know whether there was ever a manufacturer suggested retail price in the first place? >> you know, it is impossible, and, of course -- >> so then don't you have to go on instinct? >> oh, my -- sure. or don't buy. but the problem with going on instinct is you've limited the time. you know, if you start on black friday or if you start the week before, you don't have enough time. my goodness. we know who we're going to buy for a year in advance. there are some exceptions so you better know checking your list twice, seeing who is naughty and nice. make decisions before hand. don't wait for black friday. don't wait for thanksgiving. good prices, yes, but you can't do it. it's impossible. the retailer wins time and time again in that scenario. >> all right. let's boil it down here. let's say i haven't done a lick of shopping for the holidays. do i just wait until the week before christmas knowing the

retailers will be scrambling to mark things down? >> well, you know, it all depends on the merchandise. we know that toys, for example, are better priced probably closer to christmas. what's the caveat? the toy of your choice might not be available. so, you know, you're playing a game of chicken with reference to that. with soft goods, soft goods almost anytime. black friday, black friday week is probably for electronics but then we get into the variable pricing scenario. the idea is you have to do your homework even with the limited time. we don't like to hear it, but the world is for those that are prepared and i promise you retailers are prepared, so we better be prepared as well. >> yeah. my two takeaways from you, retailers win time and time again and do your homework. thank you for your time. appreciate it. >> thanks again for having me. coming up, the story of kids suffering from a horrible illness and the parents who want them to get treatment even if

the fda says the drug doesn't work and has too many side effects. stay with us. you're watching plurvelg. "power lunch" sn . "power lunch" sn "power lunch" sn "power lunch" sn n sn illness and the parents who w t

shares of biomarin after the

fda raised concerns about a drug used to treat muscular dystrophy. cnbc's biotech reporter meg terrell has more on this story. >> it was a really emotional day yesterday as this outside panel of advisers to the fda met to discuss the safety and efficacy data bind had drug. we should tell you about the disease. it's duchenne muscular dystrophy. it effects 1 in 3,500 boys and it is fatal. there are two drugs target 13% of patients. because of the context of this disease it was an incredibly emotional day yesterday, including patient testimony. listen here to one 16-year-old boy who has been on this drug. >> i'm so grateful that i get it because it keeps my walking. my heart hurts for all the other

boys who don't have access to the drug. please don't take this drug away from us. >> so in the context of this, still the commentary from the fda was very negative. a lot of questions being raised about the efficacy of this drug and the safety, especially very big safety concerns being raised here. the negative tenor of the meeting yesterday leading one analyst at baird to say, quote, the fda hates this drug a lot putting the odds of approval near zero. other analysts were more positive on the drug. the fda is set to ge side on this one by december 27th. it has implications for another company developing a companion drug. the stock went up 30%, biomarin sank on friday and has continued to decline. sarepta will go up in front of the fda in january and the question becomes how will the fda look at that drug in the context of how it looked at this one. they are different and folks are

really hoping in this community that at least one of these drugs gets on the market. >> meg, you mentioned it was a very emotional hearing yesterday. is there any pressure by the fda to approve at least one of the drugs and, therefore, that increases the likelihood of sarepta's drug getting to market? >> there's a ton of pressure on the fda to approve at least one of these drugs. these drugs aren't identical though and so the questions are with the safety issues that were brought up yesterday about biomarin's drug, will the sarepta drug be perceived differently even though it hasn't had the big clinical trials we've seen biomarin's drug have. however, the smaller clinical trials biomarin's failed in the large phase three. there's all sorts of problems with these drugs but folks are more hopeful about sarepta now. >> thank you. before we talk turkey we need to talk puerto rico. next week starts a crucial time for the island and their bondholders.

on another 30th, a special session of the legislative assembly will begin. december 2nd, puerto ricans are expected to protest the bond payments in washington, d.c. larry mcdonald is head of u.s. strategy for societe generale. puerto rico is in a difficult spot. it has limited money. it basically has to decide whether or not to pay this payment that is due or keep the government running. what will happen? >> well, you have a about $1.5 billion of debt maturities between now and january 1st, so it's a big number. in washington behind the scenes you've got an omnibus will which will take place between you a nond december 11th. the white house and treasury would like to put a super chapter 9 out to congress. they want congress to pass a super chapter 9 which would be a vast restructuring, and the republicans want a control board. a troika like control board. so all of this is going to take place in the next two weeks in

terms -- nothing may happen -- in other words they may kick the can but a lot of big decisions will be made. >> it's in their interest to sort of buy time, so to speak. if they make one more payment, they buy their time until january or february and that ostensibly could mean more time to negotiate some sort of work around for the situation. >> at the end of the day we're meeting the point where the rubber meets the road. the chances of social unrest are rising because of the finances of the country -- of the smen weal commonwealth and their ability to pay normal course of business expenses relative to the debt payments. >> literally we have 15 seconds. what's the bond market telling us about what the outcome will be? will the december date be a due or do date. >> they've been pricing in the restructuring to the geos are trading in the low 70s but others trading down 20 cents and 30 cents on the dollar. if you're going to enter puerto rico, it's extremely speculative. get good advice.

>> thank you. happy thanksgiving. high ler, over to you. >> markets higher across the board as we head into that thanksgiving holiday. but with global worries still out there, how should you invest? we will give you some stock picking advice in just a moment. plus, we kournt docount dow final trades for oil and take you live to the nymex when "power lunch" returns. the energy close two minutes away.

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not the other way around. hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update. angela merkel is in paris paying her respects to the victims of the terror attacks. merkel visited a memorial with french president francois hollande and vowed germany will do more to fight isis. earlier today president obama looked to calm fears here at home. >> right now we know of no specific and credible intelligence indicating a plot on the homeland, so as americans travel this weekend to be with their loved ones, i want them to know that our counterterrorism, intelligence, homeland security, and law enforcement professionals at every level are working overtime. they are continually monitoring threats at home and abroad.

health officials warn an outbreak of e. coli tied to costco is more dangerous than a previous strain linked to chipotle. according to the cdc, e. coli found in some costco chicken salad is more likely to be life threatening. so far 19 people in 7 states have been infected. and are your kids a little anxious? well, then buy them a puppy. a new study of over 600 children -- look at that face -- find that those who had a four-legged friend were less likely to test positive for anxiety. isn't that just the cutest face in the whole entire world? >> but i wonder whether the dogs make the family's less anxious or whether families that have dogs are less anxious to begin with. >> that's a good question. >> because if you're a fussy person and an anxious person, a dog might not help. >> puppies are not going to make you less anxious. >> thanks. as a dog owner you know this. >> yes, i do. absolutely. >> you have a nice dog.

jackie deangelis is standing by at nymex with the closing trades on oil. >> a very interesting session for oil prices. we stayed depressed most of the day and we turned positive headed into the close. we finished at $43.04 on wti. inventory numbers, we got a little bit of a build. that kept us low. you had a stronger dollar. we got a rig count number at 19 o'clo -- 1:00. 9 oil rigs came off. there could with some buying on the din and the mentality of we're going off for a holiday and people wanted to square away positions but having said that we're very tentative when it comes to oil prices. you need see the rig count declines translate into meaningful production declines. they haven't yet so expect the volatility to continue. the markets are higher across the board but global fears are very much in focus.

chris is here. the thing that stood out to me in taking a look at the notes that you gave to our producers is you see a terrific opportunity in the large integrated oil companies. does that mean you think we've seen the worst for oil? >> absolutely. i mean, we saw a year where it was just awful to own it. and every time you see these things play out, whether it's a terrorism attack or whether it was a sector of the fact that gets crushed, now, i'm not saying they're going to turn around into the next three months but by the end of the decade you better believe they'll be higher and you're collecting twice the ten-year treasury yield or more on things like bp and exxon and conoco and self ron. >> i'm looking at exxon right now. according to thompson the current pe is 17, the forward pe is 21 or so. could it be argued they're a little expensive compared to the s&p 500 at this point? >> certainly and that's because of the reflection of the fact that their earnings didn't have much of an increase over the last quarter.

but, yeah, i'd say they're market valuations. the idea being the yield and balance sheets is why you want to have them and the fact that a little bit of patience will pay you by the end of the decade. >> going down the risk spectrum, you also like cyber security and this is an interesting trade because it's been a difficult one. we hear about hacks all the time. just yesterday hilton revealed a data breach and yet a lot of these stocks don't trade along with the number of breaches we have seen and only a handful of positive year-to-date. you like check point which is up year-to-date. what -- why do these stocks stand out and do well while the rest aren't in your view? >> well, some of it is that we had a little bit of a bubble in it and once you inflate a bubble, you know, it really -- it's really hard to reinflate it after that. so you have to look at that across the space. and there's money still flowing into cyber security everywhere, not so much into the stocks. what you have to do is look at those that are the best at

interdiction and the ones that have certainly the best reputation and best growth and that's what you center it on. you have to be careful about the smaller speculative names. >> chris, we'll leave it there. thanks for your time. >> thanks. tyler, over to you. >> time for "trading nation." let's look at stocks that give back. how? by paying dividends. the biggest dividend payers in the s&p 500. that would be frontier communications, kinder morgan and one ok. are they good picks for your portfolio? let's ask todd gordon, trading analysis.com and albert brenner, director of asset allocation strategy at people's united bank. todd, you're focusing on kinder morgan and what the charts are telling you. >> it's not good. kind er morgan is a materials company, specifically in oil and gas, and you look at the underlying commodities and

they're just in free fall. yielding about 8% right now but in the next month they could be yielding 11%, 12%, 13%. i would say err on the side of a strong technical position that still yields something. as we get later on in the bull market, look for consumer staples to outperform. a stock like costco, only 4% but a better looking technical position. stay away from those really high yields just because there's a sharp downside. >> an 8% yield looks nice until you compared it to the chart that shows kinder morgan is down 40% in capital value. >> 100%. >> albert, what would you buy among the mega dividend stocks or would you buy them at all? >> tyler, no, i think i would agree with todd entirely on this. an 8% dividend yield or something north of that is really a warning sign rather than an opportunity sign. you really have to look at what's going on with the companies. all three of the companies that we started out with mentioning today, all have suffered

significant price declines which is why their dividend yield is so high. >> i remember years ago when i was working somewhere else, we can't own individual securities here at cnbc, i looked at the dividend yield on ibm. it was something like 8% or 9% and i thought how bad can it be? it's ibm. it got a lot worse. the stock went down and cut the dividend so i got double whammied. thank you very much. find more "trading nation" information at tradingnation.cnbc.com. shares of tesla higher 5% today. still down over the past six months. we'll tell you where one analyst thinks that stock is heading next. life is a highway. plus four our stocks to watch. "street talk" is next.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm melissa lee. walmart facing bribery charges in brazil. the stock higher by 1%. yahoo! had its outlook cut by standard & poor's. the stock up by 1%. and hormel is up by 3% after announcing a two for one stock split. time for "street talk." tyler, are you ready? >> i'm ready to go. >> first stock, tesla. bullish note from credit suisse saying it cease a reasonable path to $4 eps. the debate focused on the model x production ramp. credit suisse thinks 17,000 units in q4 is achievable especially as early buyers are beginning to be contacted by december delivery. they're reducing their cash burn and the stock reflecting the

optimism. next up tech data. market perform up from underperform at raymond james. but last month the firm had downgraded that stock. it follows tech data's increase in net income and profit growth for the fiscal year. gains can be attributed to strong i.t. demand in particular of apple products. they make up 20% of third quarter sales. stock with a target price of $67. right now it's trading a little bit above that. >> next stock, dollar tree. eps sort of expectations. raymond james lifting the price target to $90 from $85. it did lower its eps for q4 in 2016 but it's focusing on the outlook from management on synergy opportunities of a run rate of $300 million in the next three years. >> noodles and company with a bullish buy rating and a $13 target price. a lot of noodles. analysts believe it's increasing

focus on natural and organic ingredients will raise shares. today shares are down 53%. >> that's a lot of noodles, too. sun edison pulling back after a 37% pop after news the company has paid down most of a margin loan. it is getting hit with a downgrade. u bs cutting sun edison and terraform power to a sell rating. and the price target goes down to $2 a share. >> let's get out to los angeles now and julia boorstin, big news on sumner redstone. julia? >> that's right. sumner redstone's ex-girlfriend filed a lawsuit alleging he's mentally impaired and unable to make decisions. he's executive chairman of the board at cnbc and viacom. the lawsuit demands redstone

receive a mental examination to determine whether he can still make decisions. she says redstone is barely sentient, unable to care for himself as well as weepy and combative. redstone's attorney issuing a statement saying that the lawsuit is, quote, riddled with laws and a despicable increatva of his privacy. in a 123-page response, redstone revealing that he's appointed philippe doman in fact in the event of his incapacity. it raises questions of his control over viacom and cbs. guys back over to you. >> thanks so much. an annual white house tradition. the president pardoning the turkey. >> which actually sounds pretty good. if for some reason abe can't fulfill his duties to walk

around and gobble all day, honest is in an undisclosed location ready to serve as tin totus line of succession. oh, boy. >> okay. that's funny. >> by the way, can i just -- i am going to publicly thank malia and sasha for once again standing here with me during the turkey pardon. [ applause ] they do this solely because it makes me feel good. not because they actually think that this is something i should be doing, and, you know, as you get older, you appreciate when

you're kids just indulge you like this. so i'm very grateful. where was i? later today michelle, malia, sasha and i will take some of the less fortunate turkey brothers with us. they will have been packed and frozen, to help serve a thanksgiving meal to homeless veterans here in d.c., and it's a reminder -- [ applause ] it's a reminder not only of the spirit of giving during this holiday season but our national obligation to make sure all those who serve and sacrifice for our country have a place to call home. my administration considers this one of our top priorities, making sure that we're bringing about the reality of zero homelessness for our veterans and i want to thank the turkey farm in pennsylvania for donating the turkeys for us to

share with others for the seventh year in a row. [ applause ] it is hard to believe that this is my seventh year of pardoning a turkey. time flies, even if turkeys don't. >> that was good. >> i thought it was pretty good. you think it's funny, too, don't you? i know some folks think this tradition is a little silly. i do not disagree. i've got to listen to my critics say i'm often too soft on turkeys and i'm sure the press is digging into whether or not the turkeys i have pardoned have really rededicated their lives to being good turkey citizens, but i do enjoy this chance to wish america a happy thanksgiving. we go through challenging times,

and so often the news of the day, you know, can make folks discouraged, but the fact is that we live in the greatest country on earth and we are blessed in so the many ways, most of all because we have families and friends and people we care about. we look out for each other, we looked out for our neighbors and our friends. we're grateful for the brave men and women of our military who serve all around the world, and for the families that miss them. i'm especially grateful to have the privilege and the honor to serve as your president. so i'm also grateful for the fact that the bears are going to beat the packers this weekend. with that i hope that everybody has a very, very happy thanksgiving and i now am going to go over and with the power

vested in me official pardon this turkey. [ applause ] >> put him on the table. all right, yes. [ turkey gobbling ] >> don't interrupt. you are hereby pardoned. give him a round of applause. >> you've been watching president obama pardon the turkey, the seventh of his term in an annual white house tradition. much more "power lunch" right after this. here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time.

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on the ultimate limited edition bed. hurry, sale ends monday. know better sleep with sleep number. shares of allergen up 24%. the stock is among a hedge fund favorite. it's one of the top three stocks with about 9% of hedge funds owning it as a top ten position. allergen currently trading below the pfizer allergen deal price, so does this make buying

allergen a no-brainer? let's bring in the global analyst, i know you don't like to call anything no-brainers, so let's break this down. allergen plus pfizer. does that deal go through? if it does, as a shareholder you'll get the full deal price, which is a significant premium to where we're trading now. >> that's right. the question is really where your price target was to start with. myself and most of them, the offer price when the bill came out was around 360. then again, the value of the deal, which is all stock will be about 400. >> allergen alone, you still like the stock. you think it's an outperforming. why? >> the business is fantastic and that's why if they manage to buy them, pfizer looks very

attractive here. the reason, both are growing at 10% rate of about a quarter of the business. they've got a pretty good pipeline of drugs for migraine, for anti-psychotic medication. it's essentially a company that promises an 8% top line growth and i believe they can certainly do that the next five years. >> they've also got other names. a pending sale of the generics business. and that could gross them $40 billion. what could they acquire? do you think they would be in a position, let's say they were standalone, even if they were with pfizer, what could they buy? >> the cash position is really great. one of the disappointments in initial offer that pfizer made is that they have not promised the cash for buyback. but with $40 billion, essentially every attack would be within the range. frankly, under 300 or even just around 300, i would argue at least half of the money should go for buybacks.

the company's got $120 billion market cap. they could essentially buy a third of the company back and make the stock look a lot more attractive. my view is you own it now because you believe that pfizer combination would work, or the stock would probably break as they get out. you'll probably still be up there. >> thanks for breaking it down. "power lumplg" will be back in two minutes. rtunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

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it's time for the your business entrepreneur of the week. she and the town have big plans for small business saturday, including a 5k race. for more, watch your business sunday mornings at 7:30 on msnbc.

we are in the middle of the crush of the thanksgiving travel season. the state department warning on americans traveling abroad. there's a lot to talk about. tonight at 5:00, we have the ceo of spirit airlines. down 52% or so. there's a lot to talk to ben baldanza about tonight on "fast money" at 5:00. meantime, as we head into the last hour of trading here before thanksgiving, let's give you a quick market check. very little changed on the major market barometers. the dow up about one tenth of 1%. the s&p 500 higher by about one, almost two points.

>> apparently there will be no ruling coming out from the new york judge on whether fantasy sports can operate legally in new york. that's what we know right now. no ruling today. >> thanks very much. have a great thanksgiving. >> you, too, ty. "closing bell" starts right now. >> hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. >> excellent story in "the wall street journal" reminding those of us who had long forgotten the details about the importance squanto did play for the early pilgrims. >> she tells a terrific version. >> it's called reading it. >> some good news if you're driving home for the holidays to see grandma.