>> apparently there will be no ruling coming out from the new york judge on whether fantasy sports can operate legally in new york. that's what we know right now. no ruling today. >> thanks very much. have a great thanksgiving. >> you, too, ty. "closing bell" starts right now. >> hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. >> excellent story in "the wall street journal" reminding those of us who had long forgotten the details about the importance squanto did play for the early pilgrims. >> she tells a terrific version. >> it's called reading it. >> some good news if you're driving home for the holidays to see grandma. >> plus, warm weather may be

hurting sales of winter coats but could be helpful for the economy. we'll tell you why and the impact coming up. people rushing to google to find out who squanto is right now. the second screen appearance could be cutting into television sales, so will those deep discounts at best buy on black friday fall on deaf ears? we're going to debate best buy's future. coming up in just a few minutes here. >> and the thanksgiving economy, we have a farmer and two live turkeys. there they are live right now. they're here right outside. we'll be making our way for an interview. >> we begin with gasoline prices hitting their lowest level since 2008 according to aaa.

my dear friend jackie deangelis, who you know how much i love this story. >> this story. >> please regale us here. >> it's perfect for you. we talked about this before. $2 gas has been the edict by the ends of the year. that's the national average. it appears it's happening sooner than many expected. the national average, according to aaa now $2.06. already more than half of u.s. gas stations are under the $2 mark. 18 states are seeing their averages under that mark. what's remarkable here is that the retail price decline is actually outpacing the decline in our futures. it's very rare that that happens. usually it takes down and takes a whole for that to trickle down to the pipe. aaa is expecting 42 million americans will take a road trip this holiday season. that's higher than last year by a little less than a percent. it looks like they're going to

take advantage of these low prices. i did some special research for you. i know we're going to talk about prices in new jersey. $1.96. i know you're sitting pretty. tristate area, new york. $2.32. connecticut, $2.26, slightly better. projecting out here, we've got a strong dollar. we could see these prices go down more. the factors to also consider, this is winter blend gas. it's cheaper. demand typically does go down this time of the year, and that's why we see this kind of drop. come april, you and i are going to be having a different conversation. >> uh-oh. >> tell us what you're paying where you are. i'd love to hear about that as well, especially in california, where they typically pay a lot more than the rest of the country for various reasons. >> that gap wider than it used to be because of all the regulations. jackie, for now, thank you. >> happy thanksgiving! >> same to you. >> today also marks one of the busiest days of the year for airline travel.

phil lebeau is at united airlines operations center in chicago. how are things looking? >> it's been a smooth day so far, kelly. basically, when we've talked with the folks here at united, they're not reporting any problems. when you go to the airports, you will notice there is an increased presence of security. that's not a surprise. you see the long lines that go along with thanksgiving travel. overall, we're not seeing any major delays. airlines are adding more flights. and oh, by the way, what we've noticed this year here at united and with other airlines, they're adding more red eye flights. people want to do less to fly overnight. >> we have seen an increase in demand for red eye flights.

those are the flights that allow you to spend more time with your family. you arrive in the morning, whether you go straight to work or however it work. it gives customers choices and they can expand the time they spend with their families. >> and as you take a look at shares of the airline, it's down today. when i was talking with sandra here at united, i asked about people taking more red eye flights. almost everybody put a positive spin on it, but nobody said, isn't it a little odd that people would rather take an overnight flight than spend time with their family? but that's what we're noticing in terms of thanksgiving travel this year. >> it's also interesting that we're seeing -- if you want to talk about where people are spending money, it does appear that the airlines' domestic business is faring much better than other parts of the economy with the u.s. consumer. this is as they've been raising fares, right?

>> the base fairs are not going higher. they're spending more because of ancillary fees. that's where people are spending more. the base airfares, they're slightly lower year over year. you'll hear people saying airfares are going through the roof! no, the ancillary fees are going through the roof. >> all right, phil, thanks. happy thanksgiving. >> you, too. >> our phil lebeau out there in chicago keeping an eye on the skies. >> watching those ancillary fees. joining our "closing bell" exchange today, this day before thanksgiving, keith fitzgerald is with us. peter costa from empire executions at post nine. and rick santelli checking in from chicago. peter costa. this has been the narrowest trading day of the year. no surprise. day before thanksgiving. what catalyst with you ready for

to move this market? what do you think? >> well, let me say something to kelly's point about quanto. it was a card game, a drinking card game and i never remember finishing it. i don't know where this story came from in the journal. it was a drinking game town south. i can tell you that we've got pretty wasted from it. >> you were listening after all. >> i thought it was fascinating. >> what the catalysts are going to be -- when we get into december, seing what the december numbers are. and is the fed -- or are the fed governors going to get together and raise rates. i still don't think they will. there's absolutely no reason yet to do it. it's been years and years and years. the fact -- the data they're looking at is still not telling them that it's time to move. once you get the data, then they will, definitely. >> the inflation data was interesting this morning.

you know, that core gauge that they watched didn't really go anywhere. it's still well below their target. they have emphasized for some time that this is the one they'd like to see go back towards 2%. >> yeah, no. we definitely need to get on the horse and get the pitch forks and start a war against dropping computer prices. dropping technology prices. dropping gas prices. oh, my god. how can we ever not stop that from happening? i don't think it makes sense. i think fed policy needs to get an upgrade. move into a new century. their policies bring on what they're trying to prevent. you think a negative yield of 42 basis points, a healthy inflation around the corner? don't think so. as far as whether the fed goes or not, i'd whittle it down to something so easy. if the dow and the s&p aren't at least 2% higher on the year, i don't think they go. >> keith fitzgerald, are you ready for the fed to raise rates? >> i tell you what. i think what both of these

gentlemen are talking about, i agree with 100%. they shouldn't raise rates. i think the fed is going to go ahead and do it. simply because they're worried about having a runway. >> let's talk about something for a moment. we know this argument will come and go and come back after they raise that. what are some areas you think you can make money in this market regardless of which direction they go? >> one of the areas, this notion of cyber security. i think that the people -- the stocks have not kept up with the number of reaches. they've not kept up with the economic impact in the data. i'm looking at companies that are relatively cheap. these are companies that are specializing in heading off this kind of attack before it actually occurs. and one way for individual investors is an etf called tack, or directly to check point, for example. >> peter, are you still out of

this market? >> yes. >> i'm sorry. >> we're good friends. i can say this. are you crazy? we had the volatility in august. you've been waiting for an entry point. we went back to all-time highs again, or close to it. >> if you look at almost every stock in the s&p 500, they are well above their historical average. to me, that just means, you know what? stocks are -- i do think stocks are overpriced. it's still a lot of money coming into the market. that is keeping this market afloat. this can't last forever. i'm not upset about it.

had a profitable 17 months before that. so i'm not really worried about missing 5% on the upside. i do think the market will come back. i do think there will be a good point where i can put my money back to work for my future and for my family's future. >> that's going to be a news alert when it happens. thank you guys for joining us and happy thanksgiving. we have to go to a news alert now. what's happening, eric? >> we're downtown right outside the state courthouse. i think you can still see a lot of police officers. they were trying to continue their operations while the trial was going on. but the judge did not rule on that today. he said look for a ruling very soon. we don't think that's going to be today. maybe after the thanksgiving break. there were some war of words in the trial. as far as we know, fan duel

won't. >> is there any reason to believe this judge is going to allow these gamble sites to reopen again in new york? >> he only asked two questions in the entire two hours. and he understands the bets on daily fantasy are being made and other players that are playing the sporting event and he did try to differentiate. why would season-long fantasy be allowed but daily fantasy not allowed? he is getting at the issues. it was hard to tell what side he was supporting. because he was so quiet. >> good poker face on that one. >> nice analogy. i also wonder. you mentioned the two sides had taken a very different approach on this. draft kings still going. is that going to add to the lack of clarity about how people are trying to move forward?

>> this is to try to get some of that clarity. they're definitely going to go to court. the two companies and the attorney general's office. that will be a real trial. and what this hearing is about is whether they can operate in the meantime. so if he shuts them down in the meantime, that's a big setback for when they're in a real court case. >> thank you very much. >> people are going to be at home. there's a ton of sports this weekend. it's going to be interesting to see what happens. you wonder if it pushes more people to use proxy sites. invite more bad behavior than the sites themselves. >> that's how free market works. >> 45 minutes to go here. the dow is up 27 points. the s&p 500 higher by about two and a half. the nasdaq adding 18. when we come back, new data out this morning. steve liesman will break down what it means for the broader economy when we come back. also ahead, best buy profits take a hit from an unintended

consequence of cord cutting. we'll debate whether it's a sale signal for the company's stock coming up. when you do business everywhere, the challenges of keeping everyone working together can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t has the tools and the network you need, to make working as one easier than ever. virtually anywhere. leaving you free to focus on what matters most.

welcome back. the dow is up 23 points right now, as we head toward the close. >> let's get over to seema modi at the news desk for a news flash here. >> that's right. shares of universal display are higher on the report, saying apple is planning to introduce oled displays for its iphone products starting in 2018. we have not heard back yet, but we are looking at shares of universal display up better than 7% now on this report. for now, back to you. >> thank you. let's get back to eric on this developing sports story. >> we're actually outside the courthouse with david boise and jonathan schuler representing draft kings. talk to me, what did you think about the judge's questions, and can you get a sense of what he might be thinking? >> i hope the judge focused on the right issue.

is this a game of skill or not. the evidence is overwhelming that this is a game of skill. one of our statistical professors calculated the chances you can actually have this results without skill, like one out of a trillion trillion. this is clearly a case in which the right issue is, is this a contest of skill that people participate in, that they have an act to influence or control the language of the statute. the evidence is overwhelming. and what about the concept that later in the session, when the attorney general's office said this is a worthless piece of paper, when you were talking about some of your submissions, what were your thoughts on that? >> if it's worthless, they've got to tell you why. they can't just say this is worthless. you notice they didn't say why it was. they really didn't have a substancetive response. >> and so then, does draft kings continue to operate in the time that we're waiting? >> yes. the judge made clear before the

hearing that -- and the state made clear that they would not take any steps to stop draft kings' operation pending the new york court's ruling. >> and so then what are you guys looking forward to in his ruling as you get ready for the big trial that's going to settle all this? >> what we would hope is they do not grant the injunction. we think the right thing to do is to proceed to a trial, where he will have an opportunity to hear the evidence, witnesses will come in, a chance to cross-examination. as i said in court, they don't have any evidence the judge could rely on to decide for them. you need evidence, not just assertions. >> were you surprised by how many lawyers were involved in this? i talked to people and they said i've never seen this many people. >> this is fun. >> a lot of people really want to work on this case. it's a great game. everybody loves it. >> the different broadcast companies are involved here. there are a number of prominent

investors. millions and millions of players who love sports. there are a lot of big money backers. have you gotten a sense from those people, the investor side, of what they're looking for here? >> they're looking for continuation of the status quo. and remember, this has gone on for eight years. everybody knew this was lawful. everybody accepted its legality for eight years. these people invest enormous amounts of money on the legality. and now to try to change the law without going to the legislature is i think something that they find very undesirable. >> and the reason this is eight years is that's when the daily sports game started. the seasonal sports game has been around for more than a decade. so these investors see that there's no difference between the two. the law supports that and david established that in court. the strongest argument i believe that draft king and fan duel has

made today was that the attorney general concedes seasonal sports are lawful. there is no difference. no factual difference between the two. other than a draft. and a cap on your selection as the general manager. and they stumbled. they couldn't come up with any evidence at all. other than the way of playing the game. and we put in one of the leading winners to explain how hard he worked and to show factually how the games he participated in were no different than the seasonal games. it just happened on a daily basis and on a weekend basis. >> thank you to jonathan schuler and david. we have to point out that nbc does have an investment in fan duel. they represent draft kings. back to you. >> great stuff, eric. >> and as mentioned, there's st still -- i'm not sure that clarifies the situation for people that are going to try to figure out whether they're playing the games going forward.

>> as they pointed out, is a court the right place to decide this issue, or should it go to the legislature? to establish law or some kind? other states are watching this very carefully as well. >> we're a month away from christmas. for economic data lovers, the holiday came early today. let's get out to dave liesman. hi to you, steve. >> yeah, it was really interesting. all the data presenting and economic puzzle. how can the same data bring down the consumer spending and keep economists up beat about the holiday selling season? you have to look into the data and keep your rose colored glasses handy for a second. here is some of the data. sorry, down 260. durables, 3% coming a little bit better personal income. pretty solid. consumer spending just up 0.1% and the savings rate surging to a three-year high. add to that, the university of michigan consumer sentiment,

dropping a little bit. and new home sales coming in below expectations. here's the effect. the stuff that actually affects gdp. and the fourth quarter growth falls by .3 to just 2% with a range of 0.9 to 2.8. but the higher incomes along with the higher savings rate and the healthy jobs outlook, it's convinced many economists that consumers have the financial fitness to spend if they want to. no one can say if consumers will go to the mall with their hard-earned dollars, but the stock market thought so. they drove up the prices for consumer stocks. cyclicals and staples, bill. >> you can lead a couple to malls, but you can't make them shop. >> i had that very long in the story, but i got rid of it. >> can you even lead them to the mall even? >> someone edited it out thinking it was too cliche. >> kelly and i both know from

"the wall street journal," you kill your darlings. never marry afraid. >> true, and painful. >> stay there. mike santelli joining us to talk about whether the first quarter could be impacted by the warm weather. >> we have the first quarter leading indicators of growth. but still looking around a 2% level. i think what a lot of investors are worrying about is are we going to see a third quarter slowdown. that's been the pattern the last couple of years. basically what's going on here? steve, more than anybody else, has been on top of the general trend in which the first quarter buzz of weather and other statistical issues seems like it underplays growth. had a piece that suggests there are reasons to believe we're not going to see a rerun. warm weather might be one of them. potentially warmer than expected

temperatures. at least warmer than the past couple of years. at the same time, the seasonal factors are going to be looking for that weather-related weakness. >> this is the moment when the fed will potentially have raised rates come september. if the data is anything like the last couple years, there were the four words that people hate to hear. >> if you have that rate increase, if it's too strong, they're going to have to go a bit more aggressive. >> i heard steve liesman say "huh." what was that about? >> it might mean i can be on my boat fishing a little longer. it presents a puzzle. you have to discount that as

welch it's hal what the truth i. it's been weaker than they thought. they've tried to go back and fix it. they fixed it somewhat. if you look at the quarterly growth over the last several years, the first quarter remains weak. you get this snap back somewhat in the second quarter. i think the thing for everybody to do. the way the fed looks at it, i think you know. they're probably going to average growth over time. they're not going to look at one single quarter and decide to pull the trigger or otherwise run for cover. >> what was the problem? i remember you going back and saying to them, look, there are these systemic underrepresentations, if you will. it was a real problem and there was cold weather and maybe related factors. if there was something that was just in the number -- >> some of it was seasonal adjustment to defense spending and some of the rnd and some

spending. they tried to adjust some of that. you had these episodic things like snowstorms. let's say they happen every five years. they don't become part of a normal seasonal adjustment. mike is absolutely right. i haven't considered that what you have is two years of bad weather. it's going to be a head scratcher when this data comes along. we're going to have to figure out. i think the story might be that the data is better than expected to hold on to your enthusiasm here. >> all right, well. >> if you want to read more, it's awesome. there you are. you have the stamp of approval. go to cnbc.com and read mike's story on the coming quarter in the first quarter. we can see howell never before seen yoplaits out. >> heading to the close, a little over 30 minutes left in

the trading session. the narrowest day of the year for the dow. 53 points points from top to bottom. >> fawill falling tv sales hurt best buy this black friday? kevin o'leary is going head-to-head with the analysts coming up. president obama speaking on national security this morning. you saw it live here on cnbc. we'll talk about that as concerns over isis heat up. stay tuned.

president obama says there is no credible threat to the u.s. ahead as the busy travel is ahead. >> john harwood with the story from the white house. >> reporter: president obama chose this heavy travel day to try to reassure the american people who had been alarmed since the paris attacks about the potential for something like that happening here. he alluded to his strategy, but more importantly focused on what's happening here in terms of homeland security. he had his national security team behind his, said there was no specific credible threat. and that his national security team is on the case. >> so the bottom line is this. i want the american people to know entering the holidays that the combined resources of our military, our intelligence, and our homeland security agassis are on the case. they're vigilant, relentless, and effective. >> the president also asked the american people to be vigilant, see something, say something. that's been in the background of

american life since 9/11. of course, ultimately, he's going to be judged on the effectiveness of his response to isis, not just in the homeland, but in the middle east and syria and iraq right now. and he doesn't have enough to show for that strategy so far. he's been urging patience, guys. >> john, thank you. john harwood in washington for us. time now for a cnbc news update with sue herera. hi, sue. >> hi, kelly and bill. here's what's happening this hour. chicago gearing up for a second night of protests. it's the result of a graphic video showing a black teen being shot and killed by a white police officer. a small crowd was already outside city hall earlier today with more demonstrations planned for tonight. ohio state says it will move to end an annual lake jump after a student died during last night's event. the so-called mirror lake jump is a tradition in which co-eds jump into the freezing waters ahead of the school's football game against rival michigan. the family of frank gifford says the former nfl player and broadcaster suffered from a

concussion-related disease known as cte. he passed away of natural causes in august at the age of 84. and on a lighter note, look at the sky. that's one lucky bird. president obama choosing to pardon abe, the turkey, ahead of thanksgiving. however, the white house says both will go to a farm in case abe cannot fulfill his duties. then honest steps in. it was funny, when he was doing the pardon, turkey started to gobble and the president said "don't interrupt." i'll see you in an hour. >> we're going to have more coming up, too. thank you so much. >> we've been hearing from you on gasoline prices around the country. the lowest price we're hearing from you folks is toledo, ohio, paying 1.$1.54 right now. good for you guys. the highest price out in california, orange county

checking in at $2.81. >> wow. if your price is lower than toledo, ohio, we want to know about it. less than 30 minutes to go now here as we look to wrap up the last game before the holiday friday will be a shorter session. the dow is up 22 points. the nasdaq 19. >> up next, a leading trader will tell us what he's watching on this thanksgiving eve. >> two biotechs making a bid for one high stakes treatment. only one company may be able to move forward. meg tirrell will have the lowdown on this developing story.

we are the last half-hour of trading on this day before thanksgiving. joining me on the familiar of the new york stock exchange is keith bliss. this is the kind of day we tend to look past. what are you looking for? we had good economic data today. this could probably play into the hands of the hawks at the fed right now. >> absolutely. durables goods orders cleared out. if we look ahead, starting next

tuesday, we've got ten fed officials speaking. >> that's only in one day? >> used to be several days ago. >> this is sort of like the fomc meetings extended. as you listen to each of them, it is. but if you look at the fed funds futures, it's an 80% chance they'll raise. >> do you think the market is ready for that at this point? >> do you feel this market is set up for that? >> one of the things that i'm really looking at is seasonality. the russell made it back. getting back to that very heavy resistance point. if you get above it, stay there. if you challenge that, it's cool. >> happy thanksgiving to you and your family. >> the countdown is on for black friday. as retailers are gearing up for

the most important shopping soften the year, some analysts are starting to get cautious. one area of concern, big screen tvs. demand may be waning. global tv shipments down 8% year over year. those sales of tvs larger than 5 inches are down year to date. anthony, i'll start with you. best buy is your top pick for this sector. why, especially if tv sales are falling? >> you have to remember, while overall tv sales are falling, one segment is exploding, and that's ultra hd or 4k television. these tend to be larger screen size. that tends to benefit best buy. best buy has about a third domestic market share in tv. so we really think that tvs, ultra hd tvs are going to be a

really good seller for best buy during the holiday selling season. require kn >> i know the larger ones are selling well. there was skepticism that it would be a hit, but it seems like people are willing to pay up. >> absolutely. this is real innovation. this is not like 3-d where no one wanted to wear 3-d glasses. it's not like smart tvs. this is real innovation. it's a much clearer picture relative to your old 1080p set and consumers are responding to that. >> you're the big picture guy. you're the best here on best buy. you must be thinking about the new and different ways that people are watching television, as we used to call it, and is that why you don't like best buy at this point? >> first of all, i totally agree with the premise that a high definition large screen is going to be standard in every home

eventually. it's not just television anymore. this is a display device for pictures, movies, all the things that apple tv and other competitors are promising. my problem with best buy, not particularly expensive, so for a value investor, this should be on my palette. it's tremendously volatile. the reason that occurs is you need a killer product to drive people to best buy. they're really efficient. there's multiple places to go. so you could get great deals online. and then with other big sectors came, like the first big flat screens, that was when best buy used to shine because it added value, like the geek squad.

today i was kind of hoping that wearables would be the hot category for this holiday, but they're not. i don't see anything major that drives feet into best buy this season. >> anthony, quick last word to that. >> i would disagree with mr. wonderful on that. they're the only national retailer that's got the full line of wearables, whether it's fitbit, whether it's garmin, apple watch. best buy is executing at a much higher level. >> we've got to go at this point. thank you, both. good to see you. appreciate it. they're watching us on a big screen right now. >> and then they have the curved ones. >> we are heading into the close. 18 minutes left in the trading session. the dow is up -- i literally when i kept watching it on my

ipad, i kept hitting it thinking that it had frozen or something. just sitting there right now. >> well, there's a lot coming up. >> yeah, what some inside the pharmaceutical business hoped would be the biotech event of the year may turn out to be a non-event after all. meg tirrell will have the story. is wall street losing out to silicon valley again? three staffers from goldman are bolting. we'll tell you who is going where and if this is a trend wall street needs to worry about. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line.

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just $30 bucks a line at t-mobile. welcome back. biomarin pharmaceuticals had high hopes for a rare form of muscular dystrophy. those hopes may be dashed. >> yesterday, an outside panel of advisers met to discuss whether this drug has basically convincing safety and efficacy data. the drug is set to have a decision by the fda by the end of the year. it's just a horrible disease. universally fatal. it strikes young boys. puts them this wheelchairs by the time they're teenagers. there's just nothing on the market for it. the desperation here in the

patient community is very, very high. but this outside panel raised a lot of issues about the safety of the drug and the efficacy of the drug. it really didn't seem to get any better in this discussion. we heard a lot in the patient community. there was one -- there were a couple patients who were taking the drug. boys who were on this drug who spoke out passionately about it. we have one here we can listen to now. >> the injection site reactions don't bother me too much. i used to have braises and scrapes all over, so that's the difference? please approve it so other kids can feel better, too. >> he's talking about one of the safety concerns, which is when you inject the drug, it can cause welts. that was just one of the thing the fda brought up in terms of the safety concerns. now the question becomes how do things turn out for this drug? some analysts are putting expectations at 0% approval here. but there's a competitor drug, which will go up in front of the fda in a panel in january, and i was just talking with an analyst

over at rpc. he, like other people, are taking this as good news for sarepta. it is more likely to get approval. it has better safety and potentially better efficacy. although it has data in fewer patients. the fda is really in a tough spot here. >> for biomarin, how important is this drug? >> people said this was going to be potentially their biggest drug on the market. they thought it could be a billion-dollar drug. it would accelerate their profitability. it is not a make or break for biomarin. they've got a lot of other exciting things in the pipeline. that's probably why you're not seeing the stock react so badly here. it did react pretty badly on friday when the fda documents came out. >> when patients are that desperate, though, efficacy, is that -- does that weigh as much with the fda as it would otherwise? >> we have to look at it in the context of efficacy and safety. >> that's right. >> the side effects that are

going to come up here. >> some of the panel members made the point yesterday that if the drug looks to be really good. we should allow them to decide for themselves how much safety risk it takes. it's not totally clear that the efficacy is there. that's why these fda panel members were concerned. >> that's tough. >> it's very, very tough. >> thanks, meg. >> thanks, guys. >> see you later. >> meg tirrell. the dow is up just about ten points. 300 million to sell is going into the close here. we'll see if that has any impact on a very, very quiet day. w when we come back, our next guest says the market is going nowhere for the rest of the year. how do you make money in the short term? he'll explain when we come back. >> it's time for the your business entrepreneur of the week. kelly jackson is an optometrist who owns table mountain vision in beautiful golden, colorado.

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about eight minutes left here. the dow up 4% as we head for the close. >> four points. >> what did i say? 4% would be a real exciting close. >> we have david scranton joining us. so many people are thinking if the fed does start raising rates, the market will only take a while. you feared if the fed doesn't

raise rates, you might see an adverse reaction. >> i think the sentiment now is the investors want some direction. they want to know, okay, the thought process, okay, if they start raising rates, they'll continue to raise rates. i don't believe that to be true. but i think the market believes that. so what we saw last time was they did not raise rates and the market dropped at first. so this time, to me, it seems likely that the fed -- i'm in the weird camp. i'm in the camp which thinks there's over a 50% chance. if they do, i think it's going to be one small raise. i think after that, it's going to stay flat for a while longer. >> we have a jobs report coming up next. the jobs report next friday will have a lot to do with how quickly they raised rates and if they begin in december. how big does the number have to be to get your number likelihood that they raise. >> you know, it's hard to quantify. i think the federal reserve knows that they have an issue. politically, they're expected to

raise rates. the reality is there's a lot of sentiment that's negative. consumer reports came out recently, being the lowest in 14 months. the pmi index came off the lowest in 25 months. and, you know, i think at the end of the day, the biggest issue that they have that nobody talks about is the flat yield curve. if they start raising short term rates while long term rates are being artificially held down by all of europe's quantitative easing, you flatten the yield curve. >> you're in income strategies. where are you going for income in the stock market? give me a sector that you like. >> with income, it's not usually common stock-based instruments. lots of great areas. you can get six and a half percent yield without that downside risk. we had a seven-year cyclical

market, which is pretty significant. i wish you were right that the market were up 4% today. >> so exciting. thanks for joining us today. >> we are coming back with a closing countdown, with the dow virtually unchanged. i won't even get into percentages on that. >> but we were positive almost the entire session today. if we do go negative, that will be interesting. >> after the bell, we're going to talk turkey. we're going to look at two of the presidential flock that was pardoned. tomorrow, some $46 million other birds will be on thanksgiving tables. coming up, we'll go behind the tables and we might meet those guys as well. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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at&t has the tools and the network you need, to make working as one easier than ever. virtually anywhere. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. two minutes left. mary thompson is with me for the closing countdown as we head toward the ringing of the bell. before thanksgiving, the dow lacks like it's going to come become a little more. the narrowest trading day of the year, just 53 points from top to bottom for the industry average. crude oil, a bit of a bounce on the inventory. it brought prices back just a little bit here, but it's been a positive week so far for oil anyway because of the situation in the middle east, and then the ten-year meeld.

-- yield. a guest we just had on thinks the market acts adversely if the fed doesn't raise rates. >> yes. i think you saw when they didn't raise rates in september, there was a negative reaction. now it's built into it. and so people will definitely be anticipating that. a lot of people feel we do have to get back to a more normalized rate environment. >> a lot to come before that meeting on the 15th and 16th. >> next friday is a big week, because in addition to the jobs number that you get, you also have the ecb in europe expected to put some additional stimulus into their economy. so it's going to be an interesting week. i think friday, with a half day of trading, you're going to see something similar that you saw today. light volume, narrow trading range. the market is really just reacting to whatever data out of

the retailers. because there's no economic data. >> going out with a slight gain there. we will be here friday from noon eastern until 2:00. you can join us on closing bell. meantime, we have american express ringing the bell at the big board. stay tuned for hour two with kelly evans and company. happy thanksgiving, everybody. >> thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell." looks like the dow will do that, just barely. we'll see how things shake out. the s&p turning negative. still around the level of 2089. the nasdaq adding 13 points for its part. financials the best performer so far. the dollar index on quite a tear.

commodities beaten hard. a lot to digest, and a big week coming up. joining today's panel, we do have our own mike santoli and kayla. what do you make of some of the things that this market is digesting in. >> obviously, we're holding on to last week's gains. i think that's most of what you can say. seems like people are transitioning for what's traditionally year-end trade. and taking it as, you know, bad news if it doesn't happen. what would have to happen between now and then is probably something pretty adverse. >> it does seem like markets are positioning for it again. s&p sectors, month to date, financials up 1.7%. utilities down 3.3%. that's a pretty classic fed rate hike trade. >> without a doubt. i think the other story, of course, outside equities is the fact that the yield curve continues to flatten, so short-term rates anticipating that fed rate hike, whereas the

long term is stuck there, because globally we have yields near zero. so that's something that i think we're going to be hearing more about as we get through year round. >> i'm wondering if they're setting some people up for disappointment. when the banks talk about the benefit of a rate hike, they talk about it in 100 basis point increments. we're not going to see that for quite some time. the fed may take an even longer path to continue raising rates. we could see a flattened yield curve. so don't expect the benefit to come right away. with retailers, this happened last year. this happened the year before. you see almost a cosmetic bounce going into christmas. then we see how bad those margins are. >> i loved them so much this year. they were coming off a lower base. >> what do you love? >> kelly, you hit me right on the head. retailers are probably going to see continuation to the upside. it's short-lived, however. there's a massive short component of this sector.

i look at the anticipation, with a lot of these financials. a 25 basis point move is absolutely meaningless when it comes down to the benefits. so i look at it and say this is going to be a trade as well that you wait out a little while longer, then you sell. >> how strong is the economy? the economy is strong, forget the fed. that's a good environment for the banks. that's a good environment for retail. if it's not, then that's not a great situation for either of them, more is it for the yield curve, which as you said is flattening. so maybe there's an interesting dichotomy between positioning for a rate hike but not thinking the economy is quite good enough to keep the positive momentum going. >> we're reading and hearing a lot more about this debate happening at the fed where people have different opinions about exactly what kind of trajectory we're going to see. >> the data we're being given is a choose your own adventure. you can pretty much find data to support whatever you want to

believe about the u.s. economy right now. which are you going with? >> i think it's a confidence issue right now. we're not a zero interest rate economy. i do believe 25 basis points in the scheme of things isn't going to be meaningful enough to really, you know, make the banks continue to rally like you just said. or really hurt the overall efforts. i look at it and say i do believe they're going to move. i think the market reacts in a positive way because they're waiting for this to be lifted off. but again, i think we're getting to the point where convictions, as far as valuations are concerned, people believe that there's trades that are very crowded consensus trades that may start to come off. i do worry about that for the overall market and for certain stocks that are worked out. >> and the journal drawing our attention to what's happening or not happening with corporate profits. >> without a doubt. the good news is the stock market has remained flat as krp rat profits went down.

the bad news is that leaves the market still very fully priced. it didn't get any cheaper as those profits went down. in fact, they got a little more expensive. that's the push/pull people are facing. >> it has been so scarce. in an interesting way, the consensus trade will keep working so long as we're in this muddled through environment. once that flips and seems a little bit broader or seems like the economy is gathering more strength, then things flip around. to your question, i'm not sure you're there yet. >> at the same time, i think you have to wonder how much gas the buyback engine has, too. that's been such a lift to the underlying stock market when the earnings just haven't been there. >> the buybacks, the dividends, the traditional plays. they say they don't have better ways to invest who they are. they don't know where that future demand is coming from. >> they will do that until they're basically not allowed to

do it anymore. or the debt markets, they know more. but i do think that will continue long past the moment when it's probably the best use of capital. >> what about some other place where is you should put your money right now? >> people are concerned and fearful of missing a rally. they fear missing the upside. that's why they're really focused and concentrated on a lot of the names. those are the names that get pushed around. the names that are really going to work and continue to work are the ones that people piled into. we talk about the amazons and the facebooks. we see the performance on that. i amgenly getting to the point where i'm a little bit worried, though. i think it's going to become a point, maybe it's closer to the end of the year, after things play out where things could really start to unravel. maybe it's after a fed decision that we start to see things come off. but it's getting to a point

where some names and some stocks are getting pretty overvalued and overpriced and it's getting to be pretty scary. >> one area where things are falling off is the commodity complex. how do you think things shake out here? >> triple-a is saying more americans are going to hit the road for thanksgiving than they did last year. it appears concerns over terror threats are not deterring people from hitting the road. the lower gas prices may be encouraging them to travel. aaa is also saying the average for a gallon of regular is now $2.06, down from $2.81 a year ago. many states that are under the $2 mark, and more than half of u.s. gas stations are selling their gas for under $2. so that's a great incentive to hit the road at this point. we've seen gasoline features down more than 30%.

that is not something that we normally see. so maybe consumers feel, you know, more apt to go out. maybe the money they're saving, they'll spend it elsewhere. let's talk about crude oil for a moment. while prices are depressed, we saw a very interesting reversal as we headed into the close today. we had no reason to go higher, and we did headed into thanksgiving. that dollar, though, still could be a concern. and we still need evidence that the supply/demand situation is changing. we still have a supply glut when it comes to oil prices. last but not least, let's talk about gas, because we got a little bit of an inventory build today. that sent prices down more than one and a quarter percent. that what's happening here is we have seasonally warmer weather than expected and stocks are at record levels over 4 trillion cubic feet. this is not like gas prices. it will take much longer for this savings to trickle down to the consumer because of the contracts that are negotiated with utility companies. but still, longer term, it is good news, kelly.

>> that's a great point. on that note, i'm just refle reflecting again on yesterday we had this big pop in crude oil. today, giving a lot of that back, we start to move up a little bit on the close. do you sense the fear as we head into this holiday weekend? >> i think it's playing out for a while now. it's trying to put in a bottom, but it doesn't really hold rallies. if i were bullish on crude, i'd be worried in the short-term you couldn't get much more than a buck out of a shoot down of a jet in syria. >> what are you hearing in terms of some of the geopolitical risks today? oh, jackie left us. the underpinning as well of what we were saying about the stocks. we had the selloff late in the session. we had oil surge up again. you wonder, even though things are relatively calm, people aren't quite so sure about the

days ahead. >> they were relatively calm. a slight pullback in transports, which is not something you traditionally see. i heard a lot of traders today talking about this die ver jeve between the dow and the dow transports. can you really have a continued stock rally when the transports are diverging in that way? >> they've had such a tough year. that is something classically that would be a tough signal for this market. >> i'm looking at it a little differently. there's some issues that are affecting the transports for rails. shipping coal, for instance. natural gas prices so low. coal not being shipped. the commodity itself oil not being shipped. i say there's a lot of reasons why outside of just economic reasons why you've seen a tremendous shift there. ultimately it doesn't concern me. this market has been amazing when it comes to different diversions we've seen.

they haven't necessarily correlated with the rally that we've seen. the transports underperforming and a way they're not necessarily perking their head up, doesn't concern me overall as far as leading this market in a certain direction. >> how much did you pay the last time you filled up your tank? >> i don't even have a car. i shouldn't say that. i can't even give you the value. >> you don't deserve the benefit. no, i'm kidding. >> the global travel alert is impacting passengers and business. don't miss it. we'll tell you who they'll be working for and if it is a troubling trend for the financial industry. and could lululemon shareholders get the gift of an underarmour buyout this holiday season? two top retail analysts weigh in coming up on "the closing bell." you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back. silicon valley appears to be raiding wall street. bankers just left the firm to take jobs at uber.

anthony noto. also sarah friar. and michael evans. an increase in tech industry hires the last four years. joining us for more now is ian grant from an executive search and placement firm based in san francisco. welcome to you, ian. it seems uber is a top place for all this talent, where all this talent is heading. >> yes, thanks, kelly. great to be here. uber is one of the places that is hiring. there's a lot of companies in the bay area that are hiring great talent. access to capital is not the talent and uber is just one of those companies. >> you said access to capital. does that mean changes in the financial industry, just mean that a lot of talented people aren't interested in sticking around? >> there's 144 so-called companies today combined value of over $500 billion. getting access to money for expansion is not their challenge. the biggest challenge is getting

access to great talent and they're looking for people from all countries that can help them continue expand and grow. >> what do you guys make of this? >> i'm more interested in the flight of more senior executives to tech jobs, rather than young people going to silicon valley, because that trend has happened for quite some time. you have always seen people going straight out of business school or undergrad going to some of these valley companies. the fact that we're now seeing senior executives from blackistone, morgan stanley, goldman sachs coming in, do you think the bloom is off the rose on wall street for some of those top tier jobs? >> i think there's a lot of -- things like pricing. things like settlement. things like matching. in uber's case, matching drivers to people wanting a driver, as opposed to matching a buyer and

a seller. those types of people tend to join these companies when they're preparing to go to an ipo. so you're certainly getting that expertise. i think on the subject matter, there's an awful lot of overlap to what these guys and girls will bring to the table to help these companies grow. they're looking for compensation. it's always in the top three. it's usually number three for these people. the conversation is a lot higher than most people realize. equal number one is working with smart people, people you want to work with, and equal to that is solving interesting technical challenges. you've got the opportunity here to be bringing technology to people, billions of people around the world. how can you match that? >> mike? >> it's interesting. you say there's a lot of overlap in terms of the skill. investment banks and other big financial firms trying to become more like tech companies and

getting computer scientists and others to automate their business and find smart ways to do things. has that flow gone the other direction as well? >> no, actually, it's a great point. we sit right in the middle of this direction. there's a lot of call ent cotal into the bay area. we're actually working with two large hedge funds on the east coast who are looking for creative out of the box thinkers. so it's not all one way. many of these companies, and i won't name them here, describe themselves foirst and foremost s as technology companies. >> i mean, jobs that used to take 16 hours take six minutes, or that take 25 people take one now. a lot of these cultural changes are reflecting that.

it is one fascinating to see how one feeds the other, ian. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> on the point of uber, though, is that company getting any closer now to an ipo? josh lipton spoke to uber's head of global operations. he joins us now with the highlights from that interview. hi, josh. >> private tech investors are big fans of uber committing nearly $8 billion to this ride-hailing service. but what about public tech investors? when are they going to have a chance to put money to work? ryan graves, uber's head of operations, isn't getting a timeline just yet for uber's public debut, but says when that does happen, investors will like what they see. >> we're learning as we go. in that regard, we're very much still a start-up. still definitely in our blood as a start-up. so if we can continue to grow and learn and take on those challenges, i think investors are likely to be pretty happy with the outcome. >> now, uber is growing at a

historic clip after just five short years, it now has more than one million active drivers working in some 300 cities around the world. reuters reported the company could generate net revenue of $2 billion this year. uber does face competition in this face, including lift, which counts big name investors among its fans. graves, though, telling me he welcomes that competition. kelly, back to you. >> thank you, josh. >> one of the things i think is so interesting about what we were talking about just before josh's segment is the fact that uber has been hiring all of these bankers means they have a lot of these competencies in-house. they all say we have no idea. they have so many bankers in corporate advance. >> i wonder about some of the investors whose return is

predicated on them going public. how much pressure does that put on them to get going? >> over time, that pressure does build. i think there's also a sense that you have a certain number of shareholders, even if they're private shareholders, it becomes very cumbersome to try to remain private. you kind of have to report basically as a public company as well and you get to a certain heft and there is a little more momentum. >> by law, too, what is it, 500? that you have to go public once you have 500 shareholders. >> and compensating that many people throughout the organization with equity, you might as well have a public stock. >> we've mentioned how many former bankers. i also wonder lawyers. >> we've seen how many washington experts they have been hiring, both at the national and local level to fight some of these fights on the ground. i bet they have quite a few lawyers in-house, too. >> forget black friday and cyber monday. coming up, the astounding details of how much americans plan to spend this saturday. first, find out whether escalating tensions between russia and turkey could impact

both the global economy and the fed's plans to raise interest rates. back in a moment. cson. blew an amp.but good nights. sure,music's why we do this,but it's still our business. we spend days booking gigs, then we've gotta put in the miles to get there. but it's not without its perks. like seeing our album sales go through the roof enough to finally start paying meg's little brother- i mean,our new tour manager-with real,actual money. we run on quickbooks.that's how we own it.

welcome back. russia's president vladimir putin not a fan of nato, but they are a big buyer of russia's natural gas. welcome back to you. it's good to see you again,

john. >> thank you. >> more people are focusing on the fact that gas here is going to become a key part of what happens. how it uses its relationship and how that relationship may affect russia and turkey. what is your sense of it? >> i think it does exactly as you say, but i think russia has to be very careful because it's a major supplier of oil and gas to western europe, or to europe in general. and doesn't want to be seen as an unreliable supplier, encouraging europe to go to alternative sources. i think the downing of the jet has concentrated attention even more on the risks of world war, and therefore will increase cooperation, and that in turn will increase coordination of the intelligence and armed forces, and lead to a deescalation of the isis problem, but isis is very resilient, vicious, and will

take a long time to kill, in my opinion. but on the other front, we have the immigrants coming in because of the war, and that's putting pressure on greece, tremendously on greece, included in anti-austerity, and anti-immigrant sentiments, which will hasten, or increase the pressures for greece to leave the european union. which would have enormous impact on the euro and on european banks. and finally, of course, i think in the economies of the united states and europe, you're going to see the threat of terrorism decrease air travel, decrease retail in the bricks and mortar shops, including retail online and that will have an impact, at least originally to start with initially. and that's coming at a bad time. because the shipping index is

plummeting, which is showing a decrease in world trade. to have europe and the united states retail falling fast in such an environment would be bad for the economy. >> let me bring you back to this question of how russia may or may not use its natural gas supply as leverage. your argument is you don't think they actually will threaten to choke it off or jack up prices because that will do more harm than good in the long run? >> exactly. i think if you look back at history, turkey and russia have had conflicts for many, many years. actually, in the last ten years, a number of aircraft incidents have occurred. and i don't think russia will retaliate in that way of cutting off oil supplies. in fact, i think it will turn out strangely enough as a good thing, because as i said before, it will increase concentration on the enormous risks there are now with american and british and french and russian airplanes

in the same air space. that will concentrate attention on increasing coordination. and that increased coordination against a common enemy will increase our effectiveness, in my opinion. >> john, we've heard and we've learned about how at odds the u.s. and europe are with russia over the future of the assad regime. i'm wondering if you think we'll get to a point where the u.s. sanctions will be on the table to encourage russian participation? >> i think they will be. i think there will be give and take on body sides. and what i foresee, no crystal ball, but my own judgment is a partition with an assad government, and partition between sunni, shiite arabs and kurds. i think in the end, the great powers will be so terrified of this leading to a third world

war, similar to the unintended but path to destruction of the first world war. we'll focus attention to recompromise the solution. >> john, we'll leave it there for now. thank you for joining us. >> thank you very much. and happy thanksgiving, kelly. >> and same to you. >> thank you very much. time now for a cnbc news update. let's get back over to sue herera. hi, sue. >> while in paris today, german chancellor angela merkel said her country will do more to fight isis. she and francois hollande met privately to discuss security in europe and also set a memorial for victims of the terror attacks. president obama has signed a massive $600 billion spending law into law, despite a provision that makes it closer to hard guantanamo bay. the president had vetoed an earlier version of that bill.

in just three days, adele's latest album has become the best-selling of the year, knocking taylor swift down to number two. adele's "25" has sold over 2.3 million copies. also breaking the u.s. singles week sales record. and take a look. it's that time of year, we'll have a whole lot of helium. macy's volunteers are getting those giant balloons ready for the parade. coverages begins at 9:00 a.m. on nbc. that's the news update this hour. i don't know whether i like the macy's day or the rose parade better. >> i love the rose parade. >> and then we all want to move to california. >> right. i should say i love watching it on television. do you go to the macy's day parade? >> i have. i've gone once. but i grew up in l.a., so we would go to the rose parade a lot. it's fun. >> oh, so jealous. all right. >> it's fantastic. have a great holiday, kelly. >> you, too. could lululemon's struggling

stock be one of the surprising retail winners this holiday season? we'll talk about that next. and later, about an hour ago, a judge declined to issue an immediate injunction to hold daily fantasy sports play in new york. the biggest state. the fight's not over. the challenges of keeping everyone working together can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t has the tools and the network you need, to make working as one easier than ever. virtually anywhere. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities.

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welcome back. here's a look at how we finished the session on wall street. the s&p was negative at the end of the session. the nasdaq only up about 13 points. as you prep for black friday, you may want to check out lululemon. that stock up 15% on takeover rumors, but could the stock be a black friday winner as well? joining us right now, stacy widlitz, who prefers nike in this case. welcome to you both. first to you, you like lulu whether or not this rumored takeover happens? >> yes. we like lulu as a dominant player. i think near term and long-term, they have very solid fundamental trends that are going on.

there's not even a close second in the category. they have opportunity for more than expansion. and also going into past the holiday season, we like them, where you've got both opportunities for earnings to grow in excess of 20%. very few people today can do that. >> not even a close second. what do you think? >> i'm not going to argue that the athleisure sector itself is one of the few growth sectors out there. but certainly lulu has its own problems. if you look at where they ended the inventory levels were up 59% last quarter. sales are supposed to be up 14% last quarter. there may be some margin pressure there. in addition, they are embarking on a very expensive rollout program in new york. we have seen that movie before, from several of these names. and finally, i think, you know, if you look at the competition, cheaper, better, quicker, h & m, high mark.

all of these companies have incredibly cheap lines. for example, you can get workout leggings for $7. i tried them. they're not bad. >> i take your point. they are seemingly everywhere, much better quality now than five or ten years ago. >> perhaps because they're just so popular that everybody has to carry them, because people want to buy them. i'm wondering what you think about this trend toward athleisure as more of a business casual story. our friend john steinberg has a lululemon blazer. he has no shame wearing that into the office. is that really going to be a long-term trend? >> i think it is. certainly we've seen the denim category suffer tremendously because of this trend. people want to be comfortable. it's acceptable now to go to work and not wear a suit and just -- and also, i would say that in europe, that trend is taking off as well. but again, you know, you're seeing the competition increase tremendously, just even over the past year and a half. when you're commanding $100 for

leggings when you can get it cheaper elsewhere, i think that's a tough one. >> i want to know if you're getting your blazers from lululem lululemon. >> i am not at this point. i'm flashing back to the late '90s when we thought that, because the gap and dockers were basically introducing business casual. they were getting rid of dress clothes and jeans as well. there was nothing with these stocks. at some point, it gets to be very much kind of a stale look. i just wonder if that's the risk right now. >> what would you say to that, arun? >> i think one thing with lulu, it's a premium category. there's a lot of competition in the space. if you look at recent introduction, they can keep it on the shelf. they're introducing for black friday a reflector category

priced at $198. so when you have premium brand positioning, you can command premium pricing and pretty much get away with it. we've seen it repeatedly in retail. >> stacy? >> i would say it's interesting that if you look at holiday again, this category for lulu, while their comps were up 11%, it was terrific. the stores are positive. the model doesn't have a lot of leverage here. they actually create an incredible amount of fly, of their inventory, which is very expensive. and also, they're becoming more of a fashion company, which means higher markdown risk and lower margins. >> and before we let you both go, what about the speculation about under armour? from a longer term point of view, how would that change the way you look at the company? >> yeah, we've heard these rumors before in the market,

whether it's lulu or coach or tiffany, the stocks up 15% on that. in my opinion, highly unlikely. under armor is focusing on the women's business. they're going to do it themselves rather than spend 8 billion, 9 billion acquiring a company that's had execution challenges in the past. >> i would agree with her on that one. i think the vertical model at lulu is very different from that of under armour. >> well, that's her point as well. thank you for being here. appreciate it. >> we're about to get a real happy turkey moment here, as mentioned. talking some lululemon. coming up, we're going to talk about some draft kings and fan duel squaring off. the hearing wrapped up in the last hour. we'll get you the details. we're going to be talking about those two lucky birds there.

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the key issue today is whether they can operate temporarily, because what is definitely going to happen no matter what is the state and draft kings and fan duel are going to be fighting this in a separate court. there was so much attention, so many people, whether the lawyers, the staffers, observers in the legal community trying to get a piece of this action and seeing what was happening. they're bringing in $25 million each per week in entry fees. so we talked to the draft kings

lawyers about what the investor community is looking for. here's what he had to say. >> these people invest enormous amounts of money. and now to try to change the law without going to the legislature is i think something that they find very undesirable. >> so a lot of the argument today is it skill, is it chance, is it betting? it's not. that's just the basic stuff we've heard before. didn't get very technical. anybody could have followed along and understood what was happening. >> stay right there if you would. a quick clarification, if you could as well. so draft kings is currently up and running and available to new yorkers, but fan duel is not? is that where things stand right now? >> so this is the interesting part, because this hearing is about can they still operate while the real case was still taking place? so while we're in this ambiguous time, draft kings just decided well, we're just beginning to keep operating and fan duel

decided we're not going to operate. fan duel tends to be more conservative with their legal approaches. draft kings tends to be more aggressive when you look at a lot of things around the country. >> and i bring this up, mike, because draft kings could benefit hugely from this, even if it goes on for a couple of days. we have a lot of people at home. this is one thing you talk about with your family. their aggressive approach might pay off. >> these businesses have been about getting out there, getting as many customers in the system as possible and getting them used to playing. so it is a pretty big head start. >> i feel it's interesting, because i feel this case is going to hinge on these very technical and existential sounding arguments about what is skill and what is gambling. but honestly, it's about what the state's law basically treats as a gaming skill. it's not so much you have to necessarily prove that mathematically it's a game of skill. that's what i wonder about. >> for these platforms to not be online during the end of the football season and going into the playoffs, that could be life or death, as some people are looking at their leads and their

teams. >> that's exactly right. going back to what mike was saying too here, is it really ultimately about defining what daily fantasy sports is, or is it about the states trying to figure out, you know, broadly speaking, whether they like this activity to be legal or not? >> it's really what the judge thinks. he even asked today, he said well, why is it okay in the state's mind for season-long fantasy to exist, but not daily fantasy to exist? so that was really one of only two questions he asked the entire time, trying to get to that issue. what's the problem here if other forms of fantasy are okay? >> you mentioned how technical this could be. we heard david speaking with him, saying we brought in these statisticians to explain the chance of this being luck for them winning was so gwinning. >> that is going to be their argument. really it all comes down to the fact that there wasn't daily fantasy in existence when the

federal law took effect. so that's why it's not treats explicitly in that form and that's why they have to get it treated under that same definition. >> there are a lot of people playing fantasy who know nothing and still manage to end up at the top at the end of the week. >> just going back to the importance -- we're seeing the difference between these two sides become a little bit more clear. draft kings seems it is more aggressive. fan duel has been more conservative. but the value of draft kings, let's say you sign up for the next three or four days. folks who might have been on fan duel, because they can go do it, because it's still there, that's pretty valuable assuming they're allowed to keep operating going forward. >> we >> reporter: new york state is 10% of the whole country. each company is valued at $1.2 billion. so new york state is just $2 million a week, that's not a huge number for the overall valuation of these companies because people project them to triple and quadruple over the

next couple of years, assuming they get granted legal status. the next couple of weeks probably don't really matter fundamentally to investor. >> the central question is simply that, being granted legal status. for now, eric, thank you. we'll see what happens with people who try to play in the next few days. big box retailers may be all the rage on black friday, but you may be surprised by just how much americans are planning to spend. that's next. don't forget to catch the black friday edition of "the closing bell" either. it's from noon to 2:00 p.m. markets close early on friday, and we'll unveil the top three ultimate luxury gifts for the holidays.

black friday and cyber monday may generate the headlines but small business saturday is racking up big bucks. kate rogers has the details now. >> that is right. $14.3 billion, that is the amount of money that consumers spent last small business saturday, according to american express. and small retailers like ilene of kidder gories are hoping for big result this is year. the new jersey based retailer sells kids clothes, gifts, furniture and more. but she also pays it forward in having other local venders make and sell things in her store.

>> i have 90-year-old woman nitting sweaters for us. i have women who are in their 80s hand-painting for us. we try to keep the local feel and that one-of-a-kind uniqueness there for people. just so that we don't look like every other box store, every other internet site. >> and consumers are eating that up. am ex said 80% are willing to spend more money this year to buy something if it is from a local retailer or vendor versus a big box store. but for the businesses, it is not just about selling but about bringing the community together. we're at books of wonder in new york city open for 35 years and the owner peter glassman is bringing in children's authors this saturday to read to his loyal customers. back over to you. >> and i wonder how much the events could drive the sale of merchandise. and notice it at book stores and also all different kind of places that have to pivot from

goods you could sell somewhere else to offering you a unique experience. >> absolutely. that $14.3 billion is not traditional retailers, that is restaurants. and a fitness studio is offering a cycle class on saturday and selling juices and products from other local retailers in the area. so it is more than just the traditional retailers for sure. >> and we talk so much about black friday and cyber monday but do you think small business saturday has penetrated the consumer consciousness? >> so, that huge number, $14.3 billion, it has gone up every single year that american expresss that tracked it. it is not near cyber monday or black friday because they can't compete on the same level. but i think word of mouth is powerful. they sign up what they call neighbor champions. american express has 3500 of them. and those are stores and chamber

of commerce tasked with signing up ten other people in the community. so if do you the math on that, 35,000 retailers, stores and rauchts and more could be participating this year which is huge. >> that is a lot. that is a big number for a small business. thank you, kate. >> thank you. >> a lot of shopping coming up in the days ahead. up next, the thanksgiving turkey economy with two turkeys from the presidential flock. it is their new york stock exchange debut. they look kind of cold. don't go anywhere. t me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly

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hi watson. annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. i'm turning seven. what did you ask for? a princess. and a pony. you like things that begin with p. i like pink frosting too. will you have a cake? yeah. i was too sick to have one last year. the data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. are you a doctor? no. i help doctors identify cancer treatments. i want to be a doctor someday. i can help with that too. watson, i like you.

welcome back. time now to talk about the big business of thanksgiving. 46 million turkeys expected to hit tables this holiday season and gary cooper is here with me of cooper farms, the chairman of the national turkey federation which helps with the presidential turkey you saw just pardoned at the white house. we have a few fellow friends that you have taken on the train and welcomed to the new york stock exchange. >> they came from california and washington and amtrak brought them up. so we want to thank them for bringing them up today. >> what made them so special. >> this is the presidential flock. the two turkeys that president obama pardoned them today, this is part of the flock. >> what made them -- they made

the cut, so to speak. >> so geead douglas got to raise the turkeys and he picked turkeys. >> so if you run the group, you get to pick your turkey. >> exactly. >> what are the names? >> we don't have a name. someone suggested muffin and stuffin. and someone suggested lunch and dinner. >> oh, no. because, mike, you brought this up. what is the pardon about. because it doesn't sound like they are spared from the table. >> they were never destined for the table. these particular birds. >> they are being pardoned just like the one that president obama did today and they will go to moreland park as well and join them. >> but are they typical of the birds that will be sold? >> yes. very typical. these are about 45 pound turkeys. the hen turkeys are the ones that we eat at thanksgiving time. >> how thick are the feathers? the feathers look thick. how much of that is meat under there? >> well there is a lot -- there is actually a lot. they are very -- those feathers

are light. the quils are hollow. and these are only about five months old. so they are not that old actually. they grow really fast. but we call them super-protein. they are lean and lots of protein and america loves them. >> they have such beautiful birds. so you tell they they won't be slaughtered, not going on tables. >> that is correct. >> they are very lucky, indeed. there was a bird flu scare this year with the turkey flock. what is the case today. >> there has been no further path, even influenza. it did happen this spring and there were 8 million turkeys lost. but american turkey farmers stepped up to the plate and raised enough turkeys. there is meanty of turkeys plenty of turkeys for america. >> and what kind of precautions do you take when you hear about the outbreak like you did this year. >> we increased our secure and put bubbles where the turkeys are raised so we don't get

disease into them. there are a lot of disease risk. >> we wish you luck with all of that going forward. for these guys an the rest were spared. gary, thank you for bringing them and making the trip for us today. gary cooper of cooper farms. here with some birds from the flock that were pardoned. kayla and mike, thank you as well. >> that does it for us. happy thanksgiving and thank you for gathering around here. we are done on "closing bell." it is time for "fast money." over tomill and the bang. >> name the turke kelly and bill. that is what i say. "fast money" starts right now. on this thanksgiving eve. i'm melissa lee. your traders are tim, david, karen and steve grasso. tonight on "fast," looking or sale. we have several hot stocks there that are super cheap and performing well. the names and whether you should get in. and the holiday travel season has begun and more americans are taking to the skies since 2007 but will increased security make traveling a nightmare. we'll hear from the ceo of spirit airlines. and later take a look at