>> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> good morning and welcome to squawk box on cnbc. joe and andrew are enjoying time off. our guest host is dana. >> thank you for having me. >> we have cameras at stores and malls across the country today. they're ready to give us a snapshot of the american consumer. we'll start with the ceo of toys "r" us live from his company's flag ship store in times square and the weather could be a big factor for the retail scene in many parts of the country today. forecasts are warning the weekend could be ugly for travellers trying to get home. more than 10 misdemeanor people are under winter storm ice warnings.

a mix of snow, sleet and flooding hitting a large swath of the northwest and now the great lakes to the southern plains could be blanketed by the storm. more in just a bit. >> a shortened trading week on wall street today. the closing bell is set to ring at 1:00 eastern time today. dow futures up by 30 points. s&p futures up by just over 4 points and the nasdaq is up by 20. >> beyond retail there's other stories this morning. russia looking to retaliate against turkey. moscow plans to cut economic ties and cancel major investment projects. more from our colleague in russia in about 20 minutes. the e.coli outbreak has been traced to a tainted celery and onion mix used in it. and a lawsuit raising all kinds of questions about media mogul

sumner redstone. he's described as mentally vacant and prone to uncontrollable crying spells. the woman was chose on the make health care decisions for him if he was not able to until the billionaire removed her in a new agreement in october. member through a holding company red stone controls about 80% of the voting shares in cbs and viacom. it has implications for shareholders. >> it does. but some of the stuff that's been put in this lawsuit, you have to question this woman's motives. >> i have no doubt about her motives. at the same time, he hasn't been on the conference calls the last couple of times and normally he is. >> that's raised questions about what's out there. >> he's 92. >> reading through what this woman is claiming in this lawsuit makes your skin crawl a little bit. >> he's 92. >> he is. >> 90 is the new 50.

>> if that makes you feel better. >> 50 is like the new 22. now to global markets, a big sell off in china overnight leaving all of it lower -- sri, sri joins us now from singapore. thank you. >> that was perfect, steve. let's take a look at these markets because it was the biggest one day percentage loss for the shanghai composite in almost three months. so since the death of the capitulation in late august there was several factors driving on sentiment today. you mentioned the brokerages. they were under heavy selling pressure because the regulators are investigating some of the big ones for suspected security infringements. now the other factor here is relating to the leverage. it's still in the system. a lot of it has been shaking out but the regulators are trying to

shake out more from the system so they're urging the brokerages to stop financing transactions using otc swat contracts. so again, they're trying to shake out the leverage from the system and remember that excess leverage has given rise to a lot of volatility. we're going to see more ipo activity next week. so that's going to deprive a lot of liquidity away from what you see behind me. the other factor is that the macro environment continues to look sluggish. they're down in october for the fifth straight month. so does this picture continue next week is the big question. do you remember, we got data. we got activity numbers. both the official and from the private forecasters so that will be a very important test of market confidence. the imf is formally expected to introduce and elude the yuan into their basket of currencies.

one thing i can tell you is that the yuan will remain under depreciation pressure because of the macroeconomic environment. back to you. >> thank you. we'll talk more about the yuan being added to the stra teejing drawing rights. we'll hear more about that later this morning. but let's take a look at the breerd markets this morning. u.s. equity futures are higher this morning. the early trading in european markets, it looks like there's fractional advancements. the biggest gains coming from italy. the ftse is the one decliner here but it's only down by about .1%. check out oil prices this morning. wednesday you're looking at wti above $43. this morning giving back more than 2.3%. all the way down the dollar to 42.3 for wti. also take a look at what's been happening in the bond market. at this point, you'll see that the yield down once again to

2.211%. >> so much for that. >> right. we'll see what happen with this fed decision and what's going on. we have continued to see the longer term rates go down even with the first rate hike in over seven years. take a look at the currency markets this morning. dollar is up against the euro. below 106 again at 105.88. traveling to europe any time soon? >> no. >> dollar is down against the yen at 12259 and gold prices look down just about $6. to $1,064.30 an ounce. >> big theme of the morning. what else? on a black friday, it's retail. morgan joins us from a target in jersey city new jersey, you haven't been there all night have you morgan? >> i have not been here since they opened because they opened last night at 6:00 p.m. and they have been open straight through with no plans to close until 11:00 p.m. tonight. there are about 1800 target

stores throughout the u.s. all of them with the exception of those located in four blue law states pulled all nighters. so this is in keeping with the last few years, the number of retailers kicking it off on thanksgiving and staying open straight through. walmart, kohl's and yc penny all open. it's quite now. more employees than customers and though the store did have a line wrapped around the building last night to be fair and a visit from the ceo as well. now electronics are among the best selling items. at least at this location. you have the 5 inch led tv on sale for $299 already out of stock at this store. we have also seen some consumers stocking up on xbox ones. they are only in target stores and offered for $50 off with a $60 gift card.

so deals atwal mart include a $200 ipadmini 2 and the playstation 4 bundle. we'll see how traffic picks up throughout the morning especially since retailers including target have been rolling outdoor buster deals since earlier this week and more aggressively going after lon line shortstops. target offering free shippings on everything throughout the holiday system. >> did you say a 50 inch led for less than 300 dplrs. >> i did. $249 for a 55 inch led tv. >> wow. >> best deal in my opinion. >> did you get one? >> i did not because they're all sold out. but i'll not going to lie. i'm probably going to walk around and check out the deals myself later today. >> thanks morgan. hoping that strong holiday sales

will provide a much needed jolt. the woman that knows everything about retail. thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> how is it going to be? >> a descent season but category specific. it's not going to be the season we had in years past. you'll probably get an increase of around 3 to 4%. what we do is we look category specific bottoms up. we found that over the last few years if you look bottoms up it tells the whole story. sporting goods, everything for the home, that's where the action is going to be. >> a lot of retail stocks have just gotten hammered over the last six months almost seeming to discount in something bad. are those stocks telling us an incorrect story or are they down for a particular reason? >> if you're not in one of those categories you've had a hard time. we had a very warm seasonal fall

selling season. later labor not. not selling a lot of coats when 63 degrees today is the high. 33 degrees last year. i have inventory that's building. consumers will get a great deal. >> what about the idea that black friday doesn't matter that much. >> it always matters. it's the historical kick off to the season but the deals are going earlier and earlier. right after halloween online does make a difference. >> so we used to look at black friday as incredibly pivotal but it doesn't feel like it is anymore. we'll have you back next year. don't get me wrong. it just doesn't seem that meaningful. >> it's not what it used to be. it's not the whole kick off. >> you have people opening on thanksgiving day. this whole push for cyber monday that started a week earlier, week and a half earlier on amazon. seems to me there will be less of a crush. >> less of the sense of urgency that you had in the past.

we had black friday on wednesday. you have all the retailers basically pulling earlier and earlier because they want to get their fair share. they have merchandise to move and have to move it quickly. doesn't help that we don't have a lot of foreign tourists here also. because that's a boost that impacts. it's always the last ten days before christmas that makes the difference. >> i understand the reason that they need to do this. the reason you need to go earlier as you have to get the shopper in earlier because you'll win the market share but are these less profitable sales, forget about the fact that they're offering 40% off or something, is it worth it to keep offering the discounts and do them so early. >> more on the apparel side than anyone else and retailers that bought merchandise in order to move it's specific margins but we're starting off at 40% which is when i was in macy's last night and express you name it t deals are there. fwap is doing 50% plus and maybe

10% extra this morning. there's great deals out there. >> more this year than last year? >> feels like the deals are starting off at a higher mark down rate than last year. >> is it for real good stuff? or a few things in the back of is it store. >> good stuff out there is a great deal. because they were high exiting the season. >> high end retailers, you never get a deal. >> all right. she is with us for the next three hours as all the numbers start to roll in from black friday. >> forget about cyber monday. toys "r" us is getting a head start on sales during the busiest season of the year launching it's early yeriest start ever. what the toy company is calling 8 weeks of cyber week savings. they opened at 5:00 p.m. on thanksgiving day. joining us is the chairman and ceo of toys "r" us. we saw the crowds there running in. thank you for joining us this morning. how have sales been so far? >> we got off to a good start last night. i happen to be in our store here in times square and we have

hines of people down the street when we opened if doors at 5:00. it was a lot of fun. >> i was stunned to see how many people are out walking around. are there crowds in the store? >> we've had people filter in and out. i've seen people with large bags of products they purchased. it does my heart good this early in the morning. >> we were just talking with dana about the sales that are offered and the competitive marketplace that's out there. do you feel like it's a hypercompetitive situation at this point and you really have to offer big sales toerl get people into the stores? >> it's been very promotional early in the cycle. a lot of great value in terms of price reductions. across the line competitors we offered a tremendous amount of value. we had a lot of kick off sales as part of our thanksgiving opening.

starting today we have 20 pages full of values across all brands and categories. so we have a lot of people to either come into our stores or visit our website. >> what's the hottest ones you have seen in the first week or so of holiday selling. >> we have a product called pie face which is one of the most fun games ever that's doing very well. we had done a good job -- last night we sold an enormous number of cadillac escalade battery operated small cars for children. >> wow. >> they're remote controlled or you sit in them? >> sit in them. >> all things paw patrol. all things sh porks kins. we show you from moose toys we have keith here. he'll sing, he'll dance, he's ride around on his little cart. he's a very interactive toy and

you don't have to worry about cleaning any cages can. it's very parent friendly. we have our 2015 holiday doll here. journey girls is a brand that we offer exclusively at toys "r" us for $49.99 and the theme this year is an italian theme and then of course all things star wars. we have seen robust sales on our star wars product. this is our droid. he is remote control. talks to you, talks back. lights flashing. it has a light beam you can put on the wall that shows princess lea on your wall. >> you're our only hope, right? >> how much is it. >> it's $159.99. it's a very, very complicated toy in terms of what it does but a very easy toy to operate. >> cool. >> i was just going to ask what the hot toys were. >> dave, i remember years ago

when walmart became the biggest seller of toys but my guess is amazon has been quickly climbing up the ranks too. do you feel like you're competing more with an amazon or walmart these days? >> listen we have major competitors out there but we can't out amazon an amazon or out walmart walmart. we're in this business 365 days a year. that's what the consumer expects of us and whether it's in our bricks and mortar stores or web store which over the last few days has seen a significant year on year strike, we're out there playing in those areas and offering our toys and values to our customers. >> how are you? how different is the end of the holiday season going to be than the beginning of the holiday season? are the deals going to get better? >> it's a really interesting thing. a lot of what drives price and deals is inventory levels and

you don't want to be in a situation where you have such accelerated sales through value offers early in the period that when you get toward the end that last week before christmas the good news is there's a lot of value but the bad news is everybody is out of stock. so we really watch it on literally an hour to hour basis as we manage price and as we manage product availability to make sure that we have enough product to enable our shoppers to be with us and get a great selection up through christmas eve. >> thank you for joining us today. we know it's a busy weekend for you and we appreciate your time. >> you're most welcome. happy thanksgiving to everybody. >> i don't know if the r2d2 thing would run my jet fighter. well done. the retail season is hardly childs play.

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>> russia looking to retaliate against turkey for downing a war

plane. vladimir putin making strong statements following his meeting with french president hollande. jeff joins us live with more from moscow. >> yeah. interesting developments in this story because we learned in the last hour or so that president erdogan has invited president putin to meet with him in pair risk. we're waiting on the response to that but hollande came here late last night and met with president putin and appeared to get some cooperation on targeting isis terror groups. there will be a deepening of information sharing with the french but president putin clearly still angry and upset about the downing of this russian jet fighter by the turkish military and he used the opportunity of the press conference after that meeting last night to say, we gave information to the united states-lead coalition. why wasn't that information

about the location of our jet shared with the turkish. and if it was, why did the turkish then shoot the jet down? so there's still some unanswered questions in this story because the turkish military continue to insist they did not know it was a russian aircraft. so president putin suggesting the white house and mr. obama might like to clarify the situation. was the information shared with it's nato allies and, if not, why was their jet shot out of the sky? back to you. >> beyond that, jeff, what about the issue of -- so he says more information sharing, et cetera. but the biggest issue that the u.s. and france have with russia is the targeting of what the west says are moderate opposition groups. hence why they were shooting in that particular. did he give any sense that he would do less of that? because he's trying to support assad instead? >> yeah. this is the key difference of

opinion. the president of france came out and said we do have agreement with president putin about sharing information and targeting the right groups but there's still a difference of opinion over the future of syria and the bashar al assad regime because president putin came out and said there's only one force that can win this battle against isis on the ground. the troops belong to the syrian army and the syrian army continues to be the legitimate force in syria that supports the presidency of bashar al assad. so there's still a key difference of opinion here over the future of president assad and i didn't see any narrowing of that gap in that press conference or that meeting that took place last night between president hollande of france and president putin of russia.

>> there's some suggestion in the papers this morning that the russians have been bombing the turkmen which are a group working along the border there. do we know anything about this particular plane? was it going after them on the border there? and were the turkish forces protecting them? >> yeah. there's a certain amount of opacity around this story. but given how close this aircraft was to the turkish border, given how close it was one suspects that may have been what it was doing and there have been suggestions that they have targeted this militant group which is in opposition to bashar al assad. so there's still confusion i think about exactly what this aircraft was doing at the time in this space but of course it

would fit in with the overall story here that president putin continues to support and cooperate with bashar al assad in syria so at this stage there's no indication that he changed his tack on continuing to support the forces supporting the existing president in syria. so it is a possibility steve that that's indeed what that aircraft was doing in that space. >> a loft suspicions about that. thank you, jeff. >> let's go to global markets now. investors are getting ready for a jam packed week ahead including an opec meeting and ecb policy decision. chief investment officer. and cnbc contributor. he is founding partner at b.k. asset management. let me start with you. we're reaching down into the 105 area on the euro.

is this the highway to parity? >> it feels like everybody is pressing down. you saw a lot of speculative lows. there's a lot of support underneath this 105, 104 level. i have been arguing that one of the reasons why the fed will do one and done is because they don't want to see the dollar strengthen so far, so fast. but the other thing happening is on the other side of the atlantic, nobody is standing still. the ecb has been aggressive in indicating they will expand qe as much as possible. they're probably not going to do it in this meeting but the point being is all the other central banks including the swiss bank, getting weaker today. >> huge move today. >> yeah, everybody is trying to push their currency lower and that's going to force the fed in many ways to not do more than one and done. >> the currency has been a challenge to u.s. corporate profits. do you continue to see them to

be challenged by what's happening with currencies right now? you had this translation problem where the weaker euro has translated back into weaker u. s. dollar. >> it has. but our expectation is over the next 12 months the dollar is not going to be nearly the headwind it has been over the past 12 months. it's hard to see the magnitude of dollar strength going forward that we've had in the previous 12 months. so we think the dollar will not be as much of an impact and also historically when you start a fed rate hike cycle the dollar usually weakens after that because of the anticipation ahead of time and that might very well by b the case because by far the huge consensus bet is the dollar gets stronger after the fed increases rates as we expected. >> we also have a santa claus rally around this time but we

just had a rally and dana was talking about how these black friday promotions started so much earlier. maybe the santa claus rally came early too. >> yeah, october took the santa claus rally but i think the glide path will still be up. just not up dramatically. it's still a favorable time frame to be invested and also you have a lot of active managers, hedge funds, mutual funds that underperformed. they can't afford to be on the sidelines right now. they have to be there participating. >> can we bring up the timeframe? we talk about whether or not there's devaluations wars around the world. >> it's happening. we're all standing around watching it and they're all communicating that and.

>> we're in a place now where central banks have negative rates penalizing savers for holding money and doesn't seem to be working. the currency is still trying to weaken the currency further. >> have you heard about this two tier deposit thing. >> yes. >> which is what penalized you more if you have more money in the bank. >> exactly. they want to push that money out -- i have to give them credit though. it seems to be working. despite the problems with russia and france and everything else the data out of europe is showi showing relative up stick. they're finally starting to see -- >> pick up on once the fed starts hiking rates, the dollar tends to reverse course. >> it will be especially true if they sort of hike -- this is going to be a nonconventional rate hike cycle. if it's a one and done and they're going to sit there and wait for a long time, there's two points of view.

goldman sachs said once they're going to start they're going to do a full 1% for the whole year. a, they're not going to do that. number two, going into an election cycle unlikely that the fed will do anything more than a symbolic rate hike and stay put. >> i was laughed off the set last time i brought up one and one. >> it wasn't you but it was like yeah, tweeted about it. >> >> you agree with me that we have this 2 or 2.5% economic growth. the bad thing is its not three or four but it's not debt fuelled. it's potentially more sustainable. if hank and michelle are right because this is a one and done or very shallow then it has some legs. you remain optimistic through

the end of the year into next year because the fed doesn't have to kill this economy. >> there's not enough growth that would normally lead you into the next recession. so we can have a much more elongated expansion. 10 or 12 years. the 90s was a ten year expansion. we can easily see that here. interest rates lower for longer. you can get better yields in the stock market. that continues to be the play into 2016. >> we have to go be but give me a date for parity. >> i think date for parity, there's two ways to play it. either the market gets momentum driven and drive it to parity or they hold it off here and then we pull around and they have to wait really for the u.s. virtual cycle to catch up. in other words, u.s. wages to really begin to grow. >> accelerated growth in the u.s. >> yes. >> but the christmas party is

december 8th. >> party. >> not parity, but party. >> a parity party. >> i'd enjoy it. >> next week is freak week for geeks as i like to call it. >> when we come back, we'll many or-this morning's top stories including retail. the parent company owns sachs and lord and taylor brands and we'll hear about how the early shows are going. first let's peek in on the shopping scene around the country right now. this is toys "r" us in times square. a little quite right now. of course they were open yesterday at 5:00 p.m.. so a lot of people got out even earlier. you're watching squawk box on cnbc. first in business worldwide. money down, o and no monthly payments. don't wait. get a tablet on us only at t-mobile.

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it's holiday central all morning here on squawk box. both brands have kicked off their sells well before black friday. we're joined now with an update. good to have you back this week for an update. so you opened last night at 6:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m. how did it go? >> great. long lines. hundreds of people in front of our stores. we reopen again this morning. black friday is here and now. it's black friday. >> how sound excited. but how are sales overall? did they meet expectations? >> we're pleased. there's a lot of discussion about is black friday still going? and if you take thursday and friday and combine them, it's been growing and growing.

this year is no exception. there's a false dichotomy between growth in the stores and growth on the internet. we're pleased with what we see with people shopping on the internet and we're pleased with our stores as well. >> is that sacks fifth avenue as well? >> it's opening at 8:00 a.m. this morning and we were closed yesterday on thanksgiving in saks and we also had a great sale on wednesday for our customers that wanted a calmer event. but this morning we have several additional markdowns across the store in designer areas and other areas that weren't on sale this time of the year so i expect a phenomenal day. >> what are you seeing if terms

of saks. what's different about it this year and how's the online business. >> tourism say great question. clearly it's even below $1.06 so clearly there's a decline of international tourism to gateway cities and that's effected canadians and europeans, russians, brazilians. there's been a significant decline in tourist traffic in the united states. so our obligation is to focus on our domestic customer and do a better job of servicing that customer and growing with them. meanwhile as you know, overtime there's been a shift of business where traffic has been declining in stores and there's a huge growth in traffic online and the total can rise as long as you go great like we do with saks fifth avenue and lord and taylor.

we're seeing higher conversion rates. so you can't just look at traffic. >> thank you for joining us this morning. >> my pleasure. >> when we return, fighting terror and keeping the nation safe here at home. we'll be talking about the days top geopolitical stories with bill richardson. that's next right here on cnbc. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

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welcome back. europe remains on high alert following the paris attacks two weeks ago and while the french president hollande continues his coalition building tour questions remain over which

strategy will work best in the war against isis. joining us is bill richardson. he also served as u.s. ambassador to the united nations under president clinton. thank you for being here today. >> thank you. nice to be with you. >> it's good to see you. we obviously have a lot of questions about this and folks at home had questions about hoe how safe we should feel here in the united states. what would you tell people traveling over this holiday? what they should be doing? how they should be feeling about safety here at home. >> well, i would say obviously be careful. report anything suspicious recognize that probably there will be increased security. sometimes it's inconvenient but it has to happen. for those traveling overseas i would say be very careful. contact the american conciliate and let them know that you're here. follow the police law enforcement.

i'm in paris right now. they're just honoring the victims of the november 13th deadly attack and, you know, france has really rallied behind president holland just as after 9-11 the american people rallied around the president so i think paris, especially, is going to have the climate change talks in two days is really handling the security very efficiency, effectively. i think any tourist in europe and certainly in france feel safe and should feel safe. >> what does it feel like on the streets there, governor? >> it's important that we recognize that our homeland security and counter terrorism, we have to make sure that we have the tools in our country for screening of refugees and

screening of anybody coming in. safety at airports. i think americans should feel secure. the president's message was a calming and positive one. we have to go on and not let the terrorists disrupt our way of life. >> members of 17 of those that died refused to go to the big event in honor of the dead from the killings in paris today and they're very angry at the brench government because they should have done more to protect the people. that's why they're not attending this event today. because they said charlie hebdo happened in january. you had plenty of warnings that something should be done. are you confident that we have enough in place here to protect the american people? >> i am confident. i know that it's easy to

criticize our government, our law enforcement and our homeland security. our police forces but i think they're very competent. i think they're ready -- here in france, the problem was a failure of intelligence, no question about it but my view is here in france there is support for president holland. i know how they must feel but there is support for very intensive security measures that he has taken here internally and also, i mean, he is blitzing the entire world to get support. france is bombing, they're doing bombardments. he's trying to get russians and the british. i think you're seeing more of a coordinated effort on behalf of bombardments against isis and you have to give credit to

hollande and the french for doing that. >> i want to two back to the days where i covered you and you were the energy sector. the saudi oil minister is quoted saying that even if oil goes down to $20 barrel the saudis will not reverse course. are you surprised at how hardball they have been on their production levels and do you think they're going to keep to this and continue these plus 10 million barrels a day in production even as the oil price remains as low as it is? >> i think they'll continue he has been consistent. they're not going to increase or decrease production. they see the price at 40 although it's probably going to go down, especially with so many disruptions, national security disruptions but, you know, i think the saudis objective is

twofold. one they don't want to see iran recover, they're their mortal enemy and they're worried about the gas development in the united states. they don't want our oil and gas development to continue overtaking the saudis in terms of production as we already have. so i think he's going to stick to that and i'm not surprised. they're very market oriented. they want to keep their market share. opec is not as powerful as it used to be but they're still major players but we have become a major player with oil and gas production increasing dramatically in our country. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> coming up, the state of the american consumer. the head of the national retail federation joins us with his expectations for the holiday season. and that's when squawk box comes right back.

hi watson. annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. i'm turning seven. what did you ask for? a princess. and a pony. you like things that begin with p. i like pink frosting too. will you have a cake? yeah. i was too sick to have one last year. the data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. are you a doctor? no. i help doctors identify cancer treatments. i want to be a doctor someday. i can help with that too. watson, i like you.

it's the season of deep discounting, and we track consumer metrics for a living, and the president and ceo of the national retail federation, doesn't say the national bricks and mortar federation or national online retail federation, but you're the head of the retail federation for both saying it doesn't matter much how people buy as long as

they buy? >> a sale is a sale, retail is retail, and so retailers know that at the end of the day it goes to the bottom line, however you get it, and that's how they engage with retailers. sometimes on line, small screen, on the tablet, online, mobile, or do it in the store, but either -- >> industry stand point, hard to think of it before it being significant, and there's substantial investments in real estate, leases, own things, and so when money flows to the on line portion, it's got to hurt those who have the biggest assets. >> yeah. i think, steve, you're right. there's no question this caused an evolution in the way people think about realize and the way they invest capital expenditures. it's had a substantial impact, and that's why you see people repurposing real estate, spending more money on digital because that's where customers want to go. >> as someone who wants to buy

stocks, you see the pie as additive, right? >> right. >> individuals have to make a choice, do i buy a pbrick di mortar or amazon.com. >> looking at the stocks, they took market caps from the traditional retailers. >> michelle, then the question is, fuind one that's good at doing this or better at integrating. the stories are how much more traditional people are investing in working on solutions to the digital side. >> sure. >> that was the big stories overnight, how big the numbers were, and, you know, the sense that once upon a time, brick and mortar retailers were closed on thanksgiving and interpret guys were open on thanksgiving. that's not true anymore. everyone is open on thanksgiving. >> i was stunned, quickly, on the appointment, i was stunned when i heard earlier this week that 20% of online sales are controlled by amson.

i just department realize the market share was that big. they are effectively the walmart of online. >> that's why everyone else is investing there because that's where people play. it's back to if it's consumer centric, how they want to shop, if that's how, then that's where you have to go. >> give us the data. what are you looking for this year and how's it going in. >> 3.7% -- >> gain over last year in. >> gain over last year. couple years were 2.7, and average is 2.5. much better than average. >> weather matter that it's going to be, so far, warmer? >> you know, i think -- emotionally the weather matters, right, in some parts of the weather, it's cool, and on a segment by segment basis, some are affected more by others, and so that's a reality in lots of ceos have been here talking about that already. you heard that. 3.7%, 137 million people shopping this weekend. we think it's going to be a

strong season, and we're looking forward to it. >> ever been negative? year over year, 2009? >> by .10%, then comps, roared back, and it settled. and everyone talked about it, and the question marks, a lot of people say, why are consumer fundamentals so good. >> we'll talk about that. >> doesn't look like it's great. >> we have to talk about the health of the consumer. we'll do that, but the christmas music is playing. >> i love christmas music. happy to hear it. let's hear a lot of it. >> the ceo of the everybody national retail federation. when we come back this morning, news maker of the morning, macy's ceo will be joining us live from the retailers flag ship store in herald square when we come back. stay right here, "squawk box."

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ready, set, shop. doors open across the country, and the macy's ceo has a live update on the army black friday sales. prepare for a feast of data. short session today, but next week a all business leading up to jobs friday. will the markets hang tough ahead of the big reports? >> could dropping acid increase productivity? >> i'm starting to feel weird. i think i'm freaking out. >> okay. >> how lsd may be the new business trip in silicon valley. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick with michelle caruso-cabrera and steve leisman, joe and andrew are off. our guest host today, the ceo of telsy advisory group, and the ceo of jay rogers worldwide enterprises. january is joining us for the show as well. a check of the u.s. futures ahead of the holiday shortened trading day, closing bell at 1:00 p.m. eastern time today. check it out. you see mild advances this morning. dow futures up by close to 25 points above fair value, and s&p up by four, and nasdaq up by 20. this all comes after a big sell off in china overnight. look at what happened. you can see that the shanghai

composite was down by 5%, the move that catches your attention. the hengsend down 2%, and the nikkei closed .30%. let's get to michelle, with more of today's top stories. >> russia looking to retaliate against turkey for downing a war plane by imposing economic sanctions, and they plan to cut ties and cancel investment projects. a lawsuit raising questions about media mogul, redstone. in a court filing, a girlfriend describes him as mentally vacant, listless, and prone to crying spells. they call it baseless. she chose health care decisions for him if he was not able to until she was removed in october through a holding company, redstone controls 80% of the voting shares in cbs and viacom.

apple bought tech firm face shift. they confirm acquisition of the swiss base startup making motion capture technology, 3-d animation software to copy facial expressions. some of this technology was used in the "star wars" trailer, which, by the way, aired a new trailer on thanksgiving. i bought tickets for christmas eve. >> when does it open in. >> 18th. >> black friday shopping is well underway, meaning retailers kicking off the big sales last night. courteney reagan, who else, the retail expert of the nation, joining us now from schaumberg, illinois with the update? >> reporter: that's right. we are here at the woodfield mall, welcome to retail's super bowl. this is important. it could account for 20% of

retailers' total holiday sale, and retail real estate asset firm, jll, they say 90% of the retailers report traffic so far is as strong as last year, if not a bit stronger, though you might remember last year's black friday weekend was a bit more muted. per my app newel tradition, i visited walmart and target last night here in the northwest suburbs of chicago at 7:00 p.m. with full parking lots at both very full carts, and shoppers were calm, relative to what you've seen previously on those big thanksgiving opening door door buster specials. the carts full of things like electronics and home appliances as well as soft goods. we spoke to a number of shoppers here this morning at the woodfield mall, and they are in it for the long haul. take a listen. >> here, i have many deals, but some of the deals, i have been shopping in macy's, but amazing deals. >> it's been fun. we'll stay here until 9:00,

10:00, pate for babes r us to open, shop there, and then head home. >> reporter: now, online shopping may end uptaking the win for thanksgiving day. adobe expect sales to turn up 22% over last year. 1.7 billion for online sales. top sellers include the pie face game as well as coloring kits, rock n. royal superstar lime moe, and playstation 4 is a big hit. there's a long day ahead. we'll bring you the latest. next hour we'll see you again. back to you. >> thank you. see you again at the top of the next hour. in the meantime, many stores got a jump on the holiday season, opening doors early on thanksgiving, and me were tailers hope to woo customers in the door today. joining us from the flag ship location, open since 6:00 p.m. yesterday, macy's ceo, terry

lungren, saw you yesterday at the thanksgiving day parade, there last night for the open to rally the troops, and have you gotten any sleep yet? >> i did, becky. i slept for four hours in the office. i got here -- i went -- first, we had app amazing parade, you know, and the one good thing about warm weather is when you have a parade going on, so i think all of our volunteers who are part of the parade were very happy we didn't have rain like last year and snow the year before. the guys that are trying to sell coats would have preferred cooler weather, but that's okay. we had a fantastic parade, and i went home, had a great thanksgiving dinner with 23 of my family and friends and came back here for the opening at 6:00 with the volunteers, and it was unbelievable. i don't know if you have footage for last night -- >> we do right now. >> it was staggering to watch the flow of traffic coming in through herald square. i went to roosevelt field, and then i went to queens.

i got back to herald square at 1:00, hit the wall, took a cat nap, been up since 5:00, so here i am, ready to hit it again today. >> terry r y, you mentioned the weather, great for the parade and great to be out, but it is making things difficult, particularly in the northeast this year with the weather being warmer. can you give us an update how things are going so far? what apparel sales look like? >> yeah, starting off with that because there's just no question about it. i have not confirmed this myself, but someone told me yesterday that this was the warmest november in 251 years, so those people say, why talk about weather? i'm just saying, 251 years seems like a long time. we have definitely got warmer weather, and that makes it complicated for people who are trying to sell outer wear and cold weather related products through the home, accessories, and the like. having said that, last night,

you know, it was clearly the kickoff to thanksgiving shopping, and we saw it, and not just with the lines, but with the purchasing. very encouraged people timely not just came out, but came out and bought. it was a combination of the online business being very strong. you know, i think macy's has the seventh largest internet company today, but the business was strong combined with our store business that -- that's omnichannel, and that's what it is for us, pleased with not just the traffic, but people buying in the stores and buying cold weather items. boots, for example, a tough category all yearlong, was finally selling brisky last night. that has to do with value. >> i was going to say, with value, the last time you spoke with you, you said there's going to be big discounts early. what kind of discounts did you offer so far and if the sales at this point are profitable? >> well, you know, at the enof

the day, we get rid of inventory. there's a number of ways to get rid of it, but the best way is to sell at the price you own it at. the second best way is generally to sell it at something less than what you own it at, and third, return it or ship it out. those -- the inventory's going to go away. right now, we are selling it in the cold weather categories, selling less than what we own it at. that's not just us, but across the board. i said it before, but without question, anyone in the cold weather business is going to have too much inventory. nobody predicted to be as warm in the third quarter or going into the fourth as it's been. like i said, you know, we got people to respond because of values that are so good, which i predicted last time we spoke. they clearly are great values. >> i have to ask also, terry, earlier this week, you said you think your stock is at a sale price right now too, just looking at macy's shares. have you been buying shares of

ma macy's if it's at a sale price right now? >> well, first of all, i do. i mean, this is a company that has had a history of comebacks. in fact somebody once said to me just recently that you guys are in such a great position right now. i said, really? no, really you're in a great position right now because people have hit your stock, you know, they have hit your team and you and so you're in great position about terms of expectations. you can actually far exceed expectations that are out there with a strong recovery, and that's what we're trying to do. everyone is very, very focused on execution. i think i told you, we are a test and learn organization. we're constantly changing, looking for new ideas and new ways to stimulate consumer interest and, again, that combination of what we do, bringing online concepts into the stores, making the whole channel experience working for the consumers, that's what we try to do, and you'll see a lot of the ideas come to life,

particularly in 2016. >> i want to make sure i did not misunderstand you, you are buying shares of macy's right now too? >> yeah, well, we've been buying shares. >> the company or you personally, terry? >> i'm pretty much loaded up, as you know. i don't sell shares. everything i had my entire career, i only sell when there's expiration and it's 9 years, and i have to sell because they expire. that's when i sell. i'm in good shape as far as stock holding is concerned. >> terry, we talked about online against bricks and mortar. easier or more competitive in terms of finding real estate? are you paying less than leases now to counteract what's beginning on with the on line? >> no, you know, i don't think that's what happening steve. what you have seen with us is the rationalization of the real estate, and so we've announced that we're going to be closing more stores this next year because as the internet, you

know, has become so strong for us, consumers are looking at their options, determining where they are going to shop, and they don't have to have that immediate convenience of going to the store next door. they'll drive a little bit further and know that we'll deliver to them in a short period of time. i think when you put all the options together, we're able to say that we don't need 800 locations across the country. we can have fewer than that. that's how we've rationalized it. >> do you end up selling less to the consumer? in other words, when i go into department store, i can go for this, and i can end up buying that as well. happens less online. >> yeah. but keep in mind, and i know it's a key subject everyone wants to talk about on line, but, again, i'm benefitting because we're the strong seller at macys.com and bloomingdales.com, but 90% of the sales are still sold in bricks. last year was 92%.

still, the significant amount of inventory sold in the actual stores itself for us and for others, and so that transaction -- by the way, that will come at 87%, and them 86%, but it's still going to be critically important for the brick and mortar sale to take place. i strongly and passionately believe the consumer shops more so this way in the future, that they'll start the journey with the phone, come in, touch inventory, try it on, have the makeup applied by the beauty adviser and make the decision to buy in the store there or go home, buy on the tablet or however they choose. that idea will continue to be the way consumers shop. question is, will they actually shop with you if they didn't have that interaction of seeing the merchandise, touching merchandise, trying it on with you? some are satisfied buying it a

pure play, but majority of people want interaction of the multitouch experience with the product. >> dana? >> hi, terry, it's dana. >> hi, dana. >> do you look at the license categories, the best buy of shops, what's the diversification of shops, and what's next? >> great example, and i, as ideas that we must continue to do, and evolve forward, what is it that the consumer would like to buy from macy's that we don't currently offer in the stores today? how can we do it better? that's the combination of the ideas through license arrangement, best buy being the latest one we've done, installing ten locations. we're very pleased. i think that they are too with the traffic and locations. lens crafters, we don't have optical in the stores so adding that idea out to the stores we like very much. we're pleased with our sun glass hut installation, finish line

installation, and so all the relationships are just additional reasons for consumers to shop with us, so i like the idea, and i'm going to continue to look for new ideas of what we can add to the stores to make them more productive, bring more reasons for trips into our stores. >> terry, thank you so much for joining us. i know what a busy weekend it is for you, what a busy day, but we appreciate talking to you. good luck with the rest of the weekend. >> thanks very much, becky. >> thank you. let's go over to the retail analyst that we have here, bringing in jan, good morning. >> morning, how are you? >> good. >> been a long day already. >> i want to do that on four hours sleep on national television as well as terry did. what do you think he's talking about and how he described macy's? are you more or less optimistic for the season? >> fairly optimistic talking about what people are going to spend. we just -- you saw the 3 preponderate 7%. we got master card at 4 .5%, isi

at 6%. the problem is where they are going to spend it, and all those members include restaurants, a lot of stuff that's not apparel. most of what terry sells and most of what we follow, dana an i, are people who sell apparel. we watch that, and deflation in apparel runs more than 3% this year, so that would be the biggest it's run in 13 years. >> in a period it's been con p continuo continuous. >> if so, you have to sell a heck of a lot of product to get an increase in sales. i think we could see units up 5% this year, but if deflation's 3.1, you are small as far as the growth you're going to get in that side of the business. there's nothing wrong with the consumer. i think what's wrong is we've got enormous pressure, competitively in retailing, especially apparel retailing, and we're seeing all of this

pressure from hm, forever 21, and we're just going to see this race to the bottom on pricing. terry's talking about it already, taking the hit for the fourth quarter. i spent wednesday in the woodfield mall, and across the street, of course, is off price city. it's rack, it's home goods, it's marshall's -- >> all the discounters? >> all of them. everything is there. all you have to do is walk across the street to see where the pricing it. that pressure's not going to go away. i said for a long time, all the growth in the next five years in retailing is coming online off price, off price online or pry mark. that's all for five years. >> hold that thought. we have jan and dana, a whole retail lollapalooza here. it's extraordinary, but we need

a break. >> coming up here on "squawk box," when the leftovers are done and the black friday weekend is over, the countdown to the jobs report begins. that's right, next friday is jobs friday. between now and then, a ton of data. checking out top concerns for the markets next. as we break, check out the mall of the americas. oh. how do you feel about that? "squawk box" is coming right back.

welcome back, watching the future, and, remember, it's a holiday shortened trading day. markets close at 1:00 p.m. eastern today. we are looking at green arrows, but they are giving bag gains throughout the morning, dow futures up by 11.5 points. s&p up by two and a half points, and nasdaq up by 18. even though u.s. markets are hanging tough in the face of global issues, intentions, next guest says there's things to be worried about. we have our next guest, a cnbc cricketer, are you bear us because of the geopolitical situation, michael? >> i'm worried michelle. i'm worried because i think markets have not been able to really find any bad news anywhere. we're still in a psychologically positive stage where we shirk off bad news, but china's news

overnight should have taken markets negative. down 5% on sort of regulatory investigations. that, to me, strikes me as a big deal. you know, we have not seen markets come down. after paris, up 240 points the monday after paris. we reject bad news, embrace good news, and markets go higher no matter what. >> showing the shanghai down 5 .5% nearly, and we can't show the shenzhen, more volatile, at one point, down 7%. they are looking into the brokerage firms why the selloff happened. why on earth would an investigation into brokerage firms in china by the chinese government lead to selling off here? i don't get it. >> right. right. well, i think it's going to tell you that we've got a less robust situation or environment for capital creation in china and

things that slow the chinese economy when we looked at china for engine of world growth, concerned that china gdp growth is slowing, never know what the numbers are, but if things are slower in china, not good for the rest of the world that's slowing anyway. this is an additional head wind in china. another concern, though, is the breath of the market. we did a report last week taking a look at the top 20 performers for the s&p 500 this year, up 59%, the top 20, the other 480 stocks in the s&p 500 on average down 3% for the year. you're seeing that leadership kind of narrow, and we're not seeing a broad based rally. now, i think we still have tina, no other alternative to u.s. stocks, but at some point, the music stops and noise grows with the fed ready to raise rates in china and other things. >> when the market has bad breath, as we call it, breath of stocks is not moving as much,

it's a bad sign in the past. technically, that's something. what do you do? just buying the big ones? raising cash right now for fear we'll see a sell off? >> well, i think that you have to try to stay defensive here, and the real temptation, after you've seen markets go up for, you know, six, seven years, and a great rally is to say, i can afford the risk because i have not been penalized or any kind of down time. when the music stops, you want to make sure you have a chair. i think that health care, i think that consumer staples are probably pretty good places to be. you got to try to hit them where they ain't, so those stocks have not done particularly well. the industrials have not done well. i think i would try to keep my money safe, good dividend stocks. don't swing for the fences when the breath is narrowing. >> got it. michael, good to see you this morning from florida. almost as warm here. >> happy thanksgiving. i'll send some up. >> when we come back this morning, dropping acid in the

valley. how lsd is the drug of choice for young professionals in silicon valley. this one is a doo zrzy. you got to hear about it. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. how many people are expected to shop on cyber monday? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues. and . . . exhale. . . aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh- ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh......aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just one day. ahh! so he had your back? yep. in just one day, we approve and pay. one day pay, only from aflac. [duck snoring] i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one.

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welcome back. is lsd powering the minds of silicon valley? "rolling stone" has a story about how a growing number of professionals expert with microdoses of acid to help them to work becoming the creativity enhancer of choice. should you drop acid -- >> come on, are we doing this? >> becky, you finish it. >> should we drop acid at the office? come on. >> we want to hear from you. we may read the answer on the show. i have a serious problem with the story. i understand it's happening in silicon valley, but the way "rolling stone" is reporting

this, oh, to be sure, it's not great news if you drop acid. sometimes people die when you do this. bothered by the tone of the story by the idea that this is okay. valg lid to talk about. >> to that point, there's clues, we are journalists, there's a growing number of professionals -- growing from one to two? what's the base there? it's only seven paragraphs. it's short. it's not like it's a souped reported at this point. >> look, it's popular enough it's a story line in silicon valley, the hbo show, talking about this because one of the guys goes out, drops mushrooms, comes up with the new company name they are trying to think of, but, look, be careful, people, young people reading the story thinking, oh, it's going to enhance creativity. it's a really, really dangerous path. that's something we'd like to pay attention to too. >> i started college in 1966, this is nothing. [ laughter ] >> microdoses are for wimps, right? >> wow. coming up, going to

washington for reaction to the latest comments from russian president putin, and unwanted guest at the white house for thanksgiving. yep. look at the photo there. now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. how many people are expected to shop on cyber monday? the answer? 79% or potential 183.8 million unique shoppers. have completeent you visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t's innovative solutions connect machines and people... to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time. leaving you free to focus on what matters most.

an unwanted guest at the white house causing a stir on thanksgiving. another fence jumper in the american flag scaled the north lawn fence before 3:00 p.m. eastern time yesterday, taken into custody, making it the third person to jump the fence in 2015. is this is stupid past time? may we shouldn't show these guys when they do it. >> because they get on television. >> exactly.

russia looking to retaliate against turkey for a war plane with economic sanctions, and putin made strong comments to the united states and others following the meeting with the president of france. cnbc john harwood has more. >> reporter: president hollande in paris today honoring the victims of the pairgs attacks a couple weeks ago, but he was meeting with putin, and on the surface, at least, it appears they made progress because putin, after that meeting, said he was ready to cooperate with the u.s.-led coalition and target air strikes at isis, not at the moderate rebel groups that the united states hopes as an alternative to isis and assad. now, the white house had no official reaction to this announcement by putin, which suggests our wait and see attitude to see whether or not this is going to materialize because there remain fundamental differences between france, the

united states, and russia in iran over the fate of assad. the united states and france both say the elimination or departure from power of assad is crucial against the fight against isis because he's at war with isis, and that the longer he's there, the more isis can recruit forces. russia and iran are both aligned in trying to prop up assad, so we have to wait and see whether or not the political process that secretary state kerry is pursuing produces any movement towards departure from power. for the moment, on the surface, that was a positive result from the hollande-putin meeting. >> it's not much, though, we have the question about assad, and looking at the globe trotting that president hollande has done in weeks, it looks strong and powerful, but, ultimately, i don't think we got far when it comes to russia and whether or not they stop bombing

what the west sees as the moderate opposition or the moderate militants and non-isis individuals who are fighting assad at this point. >> i agree with you, michelle. look, the key question is, if, in fact, they changed the focus of their air strikes, if they do change them to targeting isis, along with the united states, france, other members of the coalition, we had a commitment from germany yesterday, which was also a positive development, if that happens, that will make the u.s. effort more robust. we're beginning to have to wait and see if that, in fact, does happen. >> all right, john, thanks so much. john harwood. coming up, we go inside the luxury shopping experience, plus, opening the big box retailers, target opening doors before shoppers had a chance to digest the thanksgiving meal. we have an update on the retail traffic when ja"squawk box" returns.

welcome back, see if

consumers head to the big box stores like target. cnbc's joining us from jersey city across the river koucounti the shoppers. how many you got, morgan? >> reporter: more than earlier today, steve. not too many people venturing out for the graveyard shift at target, but the foot traffic is picking up a bit right now. this store, like the majority of 1800 targets across the country has been open since 6:00 p.m. last night. while there was a line around the building ahead of the opening, it's been quiet overnight and into the early a.m. target did release some stats on black friday performance so far, pointing to brisk online shopping activity. thanksgiving day was the company's busiest for online sales ever, preblack friday sales, and jumped 35% from last year as well. so far, electronics are the star, target selling an ipad

every second throughout thanksgiving, and apple watches particularly popular in stores. tvs a draw with the $249 led tv, the top seller, already out of stock at this location, and here, the electronics department and the toys section seem to be where shoppers are gravitating the most. a few shoppers i spoeg to this morning say they are here because the online deals they were looking for sold out. not too terribly busy, but picking up. expectation is there's more and more people coming through want door as the day goes on. back to you. >> thank you very much. joining us now for more on another experience, the luxury shopping experience. craig robins, president and ceo of dacra, developer of miami's design district, some calls the rodeo drive or madison avenue of south florida. what's going on down there, craig? are you having the same kind of black friday experience down there as we're talking about from target? >> well, it's an absolutely

beautiful day in miami. the spectacular, and the design element is different. it's not a place people flock to, but a place where on black friday everyone gets into the holiday spirit, and they begin to think about shopping and what they are going to get for their family and friends, and the design direct is just the ideal setting to do that in. >> we have ideal weather here too, by the way, a problem for the retailers -- in florida, nobody buys a winter coat, but in the northeast, that's the big issue at this point. >> yes. in the design district, because we're not a mall, it's a beautiful place to go on a really nice day, and so it goes against the grain of normal shopping. >> give us an idea of the stores that are down there and how your business is different from, say, a typical mall, craig. >> well, what's really special about the miami design district is the best brands in the world

are doing these magnificent flag ship stores. for example, there's a 12,000 square foot three level store, first place where they are introducing their collaboration with the apple watch. it's also the first first sam louis crystal store in the united states. they are doing big flag ship stores, special made with complete assortment of their management. >> jan? >> i know your area and i know it's a beautiful shopping place and very high end relatively, and we've seen real problems in the luxury area due to the lack of tourist traffic, and i know miami's one of the places that have seen that as the resilient -- and dropping off in traffic, seen that up here with russian, chinese, and european tourists. what do you see as far as tourist traffic, business, and has that made a difference? >> it's definitely affecting the miami market.

the miami design district unique in that we're expanding very quickly and the offering is getting bigger and bigger. last year, we had 13 stores, this year, 40 stores, by 2017, we're 120 stores. our sales are going up, but that doesn't reflect the general market. >> craig, great to have you this morning. from beautiful florida, ceo of dacra development. we have not had any hard numbers today. that's what you guys do. what do you got? >> i think so far, we've seen the stores yesterday, i was in gap, express, macy's, i thought the traffic looked got add opening. >> you keep numbers? >> we count. i have checkers all over. i had joe at dick's sporting goods at the native mall, it's quiet. josh is at gap in pennsylvania. he said quiet, but busier last night. deals are there. gap has app additional 10% off, they are 50% off, but when stores are open as long as they are, the beginning was busy,

slows at night. we have to see what the afternoon looks like. >> i agree with that. i have people out looking at various places around the country, and have been since 6:00 last night, probably 3:00 actually, but we thought between 6:00 and midnight, there was a 5% lift, larger than we anticipated to see. 5% would be good 6:00 to midnight. nev overnight, it was strong compared to last year, slowed down a lot, and this morning, it's pretty dead about 6:00 in the morning. the lowest period we've seen so far for this shopping area has been 6:00 this morning. that's when it dropped and seemed to be at the lowest point and started back since then. right now, i'd say if you took what we saw between 6:00 p.m. and now, it's really good start to the black friday weekend. >> harder to judge that, though, with different times? there's not the crush to measure? it's spread out sales.

>> we don't know what's on line either. >> one thing we have not seen, i do this friday year after year, i don't see the violence in the people being hurt. >> i think -- >> maybe because there's a method. >> knock on wood, folks. >> walmart made the explicit move saying the sales were going to be consistent throughout. they are not having door busters every hour. that's probably a good thing so you don't have the chaos and injuries. >> even the lines at stores were not just as long in the opening because they get in there and deals will be there. ? if you're considering whether i want to go out with a crush of traffic or order online, people were choosing online. if it's orderly, it's a little less to keep you away from the stores. >> buy on line, pick up in the store, get a 20% higher sales once you come in that way. >> that place is so crowded, nobody goes there. >> we've and a flip between online and in the store, right? the stores really with the door buster stuff, people smashed in the doorway.

now, on line, they do door busters that run for ten minutes, run for an hour, and they come on all day long. >> flash sales. >> they do it, but the stores say it's too much risk and hassle. >> you can only get hurt running to your computer. >> if you drank too much spiked eggnog, i suppose. the other story today is the situation overseas and concern over security in paris. president obama reassured americans that no credible threat from terrorism currently faces the united states. malcom nance, former naval office, how to deal with isis and al qaeda. good to you here. >> good morning. >> so far, we've seen the worldwide response to be more air strikes in syria, more talk about even more security, trying to curtail migration. i don't see a lot of talk about why is it that people who were

born and raised in france actually want to go to syria and come back and bomb people around them, muslims around them in the wake of what they've done. how do you combat that psychology at this point? any ideas on that? is that important? >> sure. well, the first thing you have to understand is that we've gone around this narrative that the problem is this thing call radical islam, when, in fact, it's an order of magnitude for different. for the fifth time in islamic history, yao dealing with an islamic cult. it's occurred in islam before, but this variant is so veer lant it's almost anti-islamic. they view the muslim world as the target base. how do you combat that? first, keep the pressure on militarily, and them, of course, you start waging a psychological war, which is deradicalizing people by going after the

tenants we know are completely corrupt in their version of their islamic faith, which, again, is not islam. >> how do you do that? what does that mean? in the old days, you dropped pamphlets from the sky. >> well, we do that and the united states does that, however, this mission is not our mission to carry out. this is something that the muslim world has to carry out with our assistance. their megaphone is not big. i mean, i lived over in abu dhabi the last seven years and hear what they feel in abu dhabi, but here in the united states, we drown out what they believe. you know, 1.5 billion muslims in the world reject the ideology isis fights on. listen from over here, it's almost as if we believe that that's islam. it's not islam. the saudis and egyptians and jordseniojordanians and other p fact middle east have done counterideology programs, and it's incumbent on us now to join

forces with them to go after the ideology and call it out for what it is, which is cultism. >> there's talk of how societies are doing the opposite, in fact, promoting isis. >> well, wahabism is misunderstood. that's extreme. there's an extreme branch to it, however, for isis and al qaeda ideology, they view the most orthodox saudi, the most religiously faithful saudi as a raging western liberty to be executed. that shows why isis's mind set is. there's five pillars of islam. they view it in seven. two additional ones being worldwide jihad until the end of days and death of anyone who does not agree with them in their open fighters. >> isn't that fermented by the exporting of wahabi culture, hatred, and anger that's being

fostered in the schools that they have all around the muslim world? >> well, no. i mean, you could say that, you know, it's based on this line of ideology, but then, again, that's like saying jim jones who killed a thousand people based on methodism or lutheranism. >> it's not like that. >> i only worked there for 34 years and killed a lot of these guys. i happen to know that this cult that we're dealing with now, bin laden developed the ideology. we've been fighting this for 30 years. it is nothing like mainstream islam, nothing at all. that what makes them so -- that's why it's completely hard for most people to wrap their heads around it, including wahabi muslims, they don't get it oeeither. >> that's interesting, contrary to the narrative we see in the united states when it comes to

them. we'll have you back, thank you so much. >> my pleasure, guys. when we return, inside ebay's nerve center as bidders, buyers, and sellers prepare for the friday's rush, we investigate. at the top of the hour, thinking of getting a car with the bow in the driveway this holiday season? this weekend may be the time to do it. we'll tell you why in a bit. "squawk box" will be right back. no matter how the markets change... at t. rowe price... our disciplined approach remains. global markets may be uncertain... but you can feel confident

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welcome back, ebay expects

huge sales today and cyber monday. josh lipton is joining us from ebay's war room in san jose, california, monitoring sales data. what's going on, josh? >> reporter: steve, as they recover from thanksgiving, folks are headed to e bay getting down to the business of shopping. what are they shopping for? the most popular merchandise on e bay right now. we have these hover boards, self-balancing electric scooters, two of them sell every of 0 seconds right now. this model runs you $260-$400. in addition, "star wars" merchandise is hot selling every nine minutes. not just the light sabers, but movie posters, star wars luggage, and this toy. this is the hot seller. runs you about $100. finally, steve, not just tech and toys, but precious metals.

ebay saying $1-$2 million in gold and silver moves every 24 hours right now. this block of silver, for example, runs you $1500. now, coming up later today on "squawk alley," talking to ebay's head of north america talking more about this merchandise, what items are the best sellers this holiday season, and importantly, how e bay plans to compete with amazon. that's coming up on "squawk alley," stay tuned for that. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much. josh lipton at ebay headquarters. >> thoughts on ebay? >> the second biggest seller online behind amazon and doing a lot of business right now, but i don't have thoughts on how because you can't see that from what we look at. >> no shopping bagging. >> no shopping bag indicators or traffic indicatoring until there's numbers from somebody who tracks online traffic. market perspective from

bruce riches and "star wars" opens in three weeks, but who is counting? the toys are out in force in retail. a multibillion dollar force. the toy story in the next hour of "squawk box."

we all need to run. >> black friday shoppers hit the mall and big box stores across the america to get the early read on retail sales. >> auto sales on hyperdrive. how the black friday weekend could put november sales over the top. >> a force of retail. >> all teams, give it everything you got! >> the move "star war" toys could be the bright spot for the entire shopping galaxy. the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. this is cnbc, first in business

worldwide. i'm becky quick with steve leisman and michelle caruso-cabrera. joe and andrew are off today. we are less than 90 minutes from the opening bell on wall street. we've been watching the futures, slightly higher this morning, and dow futures root now up by 23 points above fair value, and s&p futures up 4.5, and nasdaq up by 21. steve? >> thanks, becky. among today's top stories, chinese stocks slammed overnight. the country's regulators went after brokerages again for trading rules. e.coli involving chicken sal lid was traced to a tainted celery and onion mix used, and 19 people in states have been sick eating it. this raises questions about red stone. in a court filing, a former girlfriend described him as mentally vacant, listless, and prone to uncontrollable crying

spells. they call the lawsuit baseless. the woman was chosen by redstone to make health care decisions for him if he was not able to until the billionaire removed her in a new agreement in october. through a holding company it' 8e o% of the voting shares. >> it's black friday. it's a huge day for retailers and toy stores, big for car dealers. phil lebeau has more on that story. phil? >> reporter: hey, michelle. at this chevy dealership in lyle, illinois, they will open the door in a couple hours, expecting steady flow of customers, and all the auto makers push for black friday. >> and this year, look what he put in our driveway. >> santa can do that? >> he sure can, honey. >> the sales to remember event is here. >> you've seen the ads for some time. most auto makers advertised

black friday type sales most month of november, expecting big sales today, and, in fact, this could push pace above 18 million, and what's selling? trucks and suvs, selling over the six months. they expect double digit gains in sales, and for a number of dealers, they expect the week to be the key to make a strong push to the end of the year. >> black friday is an important day, no question about it. we want to get as many people out there. we're advertising, spending more on those two days than we have for the entire rest of the month to get more people out to, you know, finish up the month strong. >> and they are expecting a strong finish to november. look at the surge in the sales rate in the united states. first quarter, 16.6 million was the sales rate, picked up steam in the second quarter, really picking up steam in the third quarter, and, guys, right now, h on pace to finish the fourth quarter with a sales rate of

18.2, maybe 18.3 million, and stocks have not done anything, although there's been strong sales, jp morgan has a note today saying november sales rate likely to be 18.5 million? why, black friday weekend is big for the auto makers. back to you. >> phil, when i conditioned to think about retailers offering, traditional retailers offering big discounts for black friday, i figure they mark it up to bring it down. when you are offered 20% off on a car, is that a real 20% off list price? >> reporter: it is a real 20% off the manufactured suggested retail price. nobody pays msrp with the exception of niche models, maybe a special edition vehicle you pay that, but nobody ever pays that. what's interesting is that this year, they've done a better job in terms of positioning their messaging. in the past, it was, well, combine this incentive with this dealer incentive. this year, it's clearer from all

the auto makers in terms of this is what you get, you get $2,000 off over 20% offer, whatever it might be, and it's easier for the consumer to digest it. >> phil, i remember, and i think it was in the last ten years that the auto companies decided to get it on black friday. i scoffed at it. i said, no way they are going to sell cars for christmas. is that becoming reality now? is black friday becoming a real and serious part of their yearly sales? >> reporter: it is a very real part of the annual sales, steve. it's not that people are buying cars for christmas or for the holidays. it's that they are taking advantage of most people being off of work today and having more time to go into a showroom and look around. as much as we talk both people doing homework online to see what they want, they want to go in a dealership to look at a vehicle, drive a vehicle around, friday, saturday, sunday, a perfect three day weekend for

them, and, yes, this is the beginning of what's become probably the third most important sales part of the year for the auto makers, and that's november and december. they get a huge sales push here. >> all right. >> go ahead. >> thanks. i just want to ask jan and dan, does this take money away from traditional retail sales for kris mass? >> absolutely. >> they have been taking shares, home or autos, that's where the dollars are going. >> it's killing us. it's going to thing other than discretionary retail, and discretionary retail is deflating. the two together is a a big problem for driving the business. so, yeah, i mean, 18 million cars a year, that's a lot of sweaters, man. >> or athlete leisure. >> i was going to buy a sweater, but now i'm going to buy a car. that doesn't compute. maybe people do that. >> it's not hard to get your head around i spent all my money. >> and, i can't, therefore, buy a sweater. >> i was on my way to buy a

sweater, and look what i got. >> speaking to the bigger retail story of the day, and we are standing by in a mall in a chicago suburb. courtney? >> reporter: so most of the shoppers we see right now are the millennial shopper, that's been the crowd overnight and early morning hours, but the foot traffic is picking up. if history is any indication, we'll see the families come out once they get their breakfast and morning coffee. a big line outside. sephora, not offering special deals, but what millennials were after. when it comes to walmart, target, best buy, the best buys were when the door busters started at 6:00 p.m. last night. look what's trending on google right now, walmart, black friday flier is the number one trending search. interestingly, followed by staples black friday and k-mart black friday. here's a look at what some of the shoppers here at the woodfield mall tell us this morning. >> we've gone out on black

friday every year for 20, but now that they open on thanksgiving, we don't come out as early. >> it's a tradition more than anything. we just get out. >> reporter: now, many shoppers, of course, did not wait until the weekend to shop. 60% of americans actually began holiday shopping before november 10th. ibm says that online sales on thanksgiving day broke 26% over last year for an average order of $123.45. when it comes to the social conversations earlier on thursday, macy's and walmart took share until amazon took over overnight, and, so far, amazon is the lead conversation this morning on twitter. on facebook, kate spade getting 24% of the conversation when you look at the top 30 public lifestyle figures. back to you guys. >> all right. interesting data point. thanks, courtenney. >> reporter: thank you.

the next guest, a big investor in credit markets in europe and puerto rico. joining us now on squawk exclusi exclusive, bruce riches, founding partner of the hedge fund, marathon asset management. thank you for being here. >> thank you, becky. >> talking about sales at retailers, when you look at the markets, do you see stocks on sale these days? >> there are. look at the s&p 500, it's evenly divided, and they think it's google and amazon leading the charts, they are, up over 150%, but stocks in s&p up this year and 250 down this year. >> unusual. >> the dispersion is evenly matched. those that are down the most, of course, are energy, oil and gas, and emp as well as services, and they led the charge lower while some of the, you know, the new economy companies are the big performers this year. >> does that mean when you look at energy and gas companies, you

actually see some begins there? people who rushed in early on got burned by this. >> one has to understand where the bottom is in the market place. there's low for long or do we have further declines yet? bargains we see are not so much in the equity side of the equati equation, but debt side of the equation, combining the senior first lean debt, the equity for many of the companies, at discounted prices to par. the equity has little value add when you look out years from now. the defaults surge, and it runs to accumulative amount at 25%. >> do you end up owning up a bunch of oil fields? >> oil companies that open the fields. >> at lower cost base. >> no consideration for the equity or bonds and senior bank debt. >> right. walk me through what it does to your operating ability and price of oil that the prior owner had to shut it down, and you can

operate at once you own that debt becoming equity. >> sure. companies funded their emp, funded their development and exploration in bringing oil and gas out of the ground with equity and debt. >> right. >> opposed to just equity. they probably shouldn't have put debt in the companies, but they did. the ratio was three times. well, with the revenue of oil companies having crashed because oil prices fall from 100 to 40, it's through the floor now. your deck even out ratios are three, eight, ten, and 12. it's unstaepbustainable. they burn cash to sustain the debt. >> if they couldn't service the debt, could you -- >> without the debt -- >> once you own the stuff, can you run it at $30 or $45? >> cheaper, yes you can.

>> what's the number. >> depends on the company, but revenue goes to the debt service based on debt of revenue it has. if you wipe out the debt -- >> you can keep it open? >> exactly. >> that's why the saudis are tough. >> yes. >> our debt -- >> our goal is to own the company through the debt. we're not the operators. we're the debt and equity investors. if you own the company, not for buying equity and bonds, but buying the debt and controlling the companies, that's a good inestment. >> anything to buy other than venezuelan and puerto rico -- >> sovereign debt, there's, you know, developed market sovereign debt, $10 trillion trading at 0 rates. there's nothing to do there. >> right. >> in terms of the emerging market sovereign debt, there is some opportunity there, but more opportunity in corporate side. >> okay. do you own any venezuelan? >> no. >> he's going to own the country

through the debt. >> no, yields at 30%? >> exactly. [ laughter ] >> 30%, 17%? i mean, it looks juicy, and at the same time -- >> they have a willingness -- >> a fascination yesterday it was problematic. >> willingness to pay, but ecuador defaulted eight times over the -- >> supposedly paying in december. amazing. >> they will. >> yep. >> talk about puerto rico. pouerto rico's an economy with $74 billion in debt, 70 billion gdp. they have the greatest debt to gdp of any municipal. >> you buying it? >> buying puerto rico power authority. they have $9 billion in debt, electric company of the country, of the -- of the region, of puerto rico, of the province. we've worked out a deal with puerto rico where we, we being all the creditors, accepting a restructuring. we'll accept 15% haircut, so you

can take 15% out of our principle amount. we accepted that, a five year term out, and the -- >> what's the return? >> we reduced the coupons by significant amount. >> what is it now? >> 6, 7, 8%. >> decent. >> bringing those down. the whole deal's worked out. puerto rico agreed. the creditors agreed. one party has not agreed. the reinsurance companies, nbia, assured guarantee. they want the puerto ricans to raise the electric rates so they don't have to take a hair cut. it's the greed -- none of the he hedge funds that you read about often, but the greed of the reinsurance companies standing in the way of restructuring puerto rico. the deal is close to being done, but requires tinsurance companis to come to the table to negotiate, which they have not done to date. >> bruce, coming off of thanksgiving, and what you said you were thankful for was the

veterans and the service to the country. you and your wife started a fund for veterans education. tell us about that. >> sure. the veterans education challenge is on crowd rise. there's different websites, and this host is crowd rise. we have the veterans education challenge where we've put in $1 million and we'll match all dollars up to that $1 million in hopes of raising $2 million. this all goes to pay for the education of veterans as they reenter academic life. everyone thinks the g.i. bill pays everything, it doesn't. it pays most, but students who are veterans going to the academic life are $6,000 to $8,000 short each year. for half the veterans that are married or come back with children and have to support these dependents, it's a difference of staying in school and not staying in school. unemployment rate in the united states, it's 5%, but veterans,

it's 40-50% higher. the key reason is a college education. we put a million aside, putting another million aside to match all money up to a million that comes in. please, go to crowd rise, veterans education challenge, help our veterans. they keep us safe at home. they risk their lives. it's for the armed forces, army, navy, marines, coast guard. >> love that charity. >> great seeing you. coming up, looking for a luxury gift this holiday season? cartier may have bling for you. these pieces of jewelry and find out why we can't touch them, after the break. watching "squawk box" on black friday, 2015. we'll be right back. working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app in the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of the other

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welcome back. the weather could be a big factor for the retail scene in parts of the country today saying nothing of holiday travel this weekend. the weather channel's mike seidel is live from oklahoma, mike? >> reporter: good morning, steve from oklahoma city with rain and now sleet, 33 degrees, and wind chill's at 20. if you're anywhere in the plain states through the texas oak pan

handle, you're dealing with freezing rain, sleet, or rain, and speaking of rain, dallas ft. worth overnight had yesterday and overnight over 4 inches of rain of the it's now their wettest year on record approaching 55 inches in dallas. interestingly, about half of that fell in may and october. two very wet months. here in oklahoma city and parts west, there's ice storm warnings west of here. could be up to a half inch of ice knocking out power. in amarillo, snow, sleet, and freezing rain and 14 million folks on the warmer side of the folks, steve, under flash flood watches. this will stick around for days as far as the rain goes, flash flood watch in dallas is until sunday morning. wondering about traveling back sunday from thanksgiving? the major hubs are fine, east and west coast looks good, new york city, chicago, atlanta, and west coast airports look fine. there's lingering rain in little rock, memphis, and dallas, but otherwise, a good travel trek home sunday like it was in the earlier part of the week.

the storm, steve, the ice, the snow, is not headed to the east coast, thankfully, for the rest of the weekend. meanwhile, just a lousy day here. good day to be shopping or home online shopping as it's cold and miserable here in oklahoma city. steve? >> thanks, mike. michelle? diamonds may be forever as the saying goes, but the jewelry space, not immune to the recent retail rut. luxury retailer, tiffany, hit by the slumping sales. talk about cartier, looking to file on the bling, launching a new collection inspired by light and colors of the south of france. let's bring in the ceo of cartier north america, mercedes, good to have you here. >> good morning, thank you, michelle, thank you for asking me to be here. >> are you in miami? you're down the launch. >> i am in miami, yes. i am in miami. we are launching our first u.s. debut of the collection that you mentioned, launching in miami

next week. >> we have examples of it right here on the set, so there's a blue chain. it's far away from me, so i can't see very well, but there's a beautiful -- looks to be diamonds. what are we talking about them retailing for? >> well, you have several great emblematic pieces there. the tanzanite and diamond necklace is retailing in the mid-$300,000s. there's an amazing bracelet with opal and carved emerald over $900,000. >> wow. >> it's really beautiful pieces. very unique. >> wow. that's why we can't touch it. i understand. the dollar this morning? 1.05 against the euro. does that you, especially in miami, i got to imagine reliant on overseas tourist trade, does that make you nervous about sales? >> you know, quite frankly, michelle, our clients shop for

value with us, the long term investment. our pieces are designed with the long term in mind. either our watches or our jewelry. our pieces are pieces people purchase for milestones, birthdays, anniversaries, promotions. we design and create with that in mind, so it's always something that is available and people are always celebrating milestones, so there's always an opportunity to purchase a cartirgscar cartier luxury item. >> a big piece of your business european tourism in the states when you do u.s. sales? >> actually, we don't break that out too often in a public basis, but we have a wide variety of the clients in the u.s. it's wonderfully diverse, large market, and our american clients, themselves, are loyal and dedicated to cartier. >> the business on the east coast or wide here in the united states? >> actually, we're wide.

that's what's wonderful. we have 35 boutiques an an e-commerce channel and important boutiques here in miami where i am. also, of course, on the northeast, but in california and texas and also canada as well. >> and, mercedes, as you look at jewelry and watches, we heard that better strength in jewelry than watches, what cleollection do you see the most strength? lately? >> the high jewelry collections you have in front of you, those are, again, really, really strong pieces, and collections that our clients come looking for. they look for something new and innovative, and they look to build the collection, but also from a best seller standpoint for the holidays, we have the clay, the cartier watch in the studio, and there's more. >> thank you so much for joining us from miami this morning. >> thank you very much. when we come back, history is repeating itself.

this holiday subpoena, it's the return of vinyl records, why millennials bring back the lp. "squawk box" will be right back. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

history repeats itself with the resurgence of popularity in vinyl records. kate rogers is joining us now with more. it's coming back. >> that's right, steve. digital world reigns supreme, but vinyl is back in demand. independent pressing is aiming to manufacture 1 million records this year. >> that's going to be capacity. demand far exceeds that. if we -- we can run these -- we'd be able to run the presses 24 hours 7 days a week and still not meet demand. capacity, really the choke point in the vinyl industry right now, and while you hear about the resurgence is there's such a demand compared to what the capacity is. >> now the price point is higher, ranging from the high teens up to $40 depending on the artist, for example, the new adele album is $23 in target. and he thinks it may be even digital music creating the resurgence in vinyl's p

popularity. half the buyers are younger than 25. >> i really believe digital has helped the comeback of vinyl because digital strips out the tang ability of music. it's just a file. i think the great thing about vinyl is it's such a great tangible piece. >> in 2014, more than 13 million vinyl lps were sold according to the recording industry association of america, and the last time sales were that high, guys, in 1989. >> wow. >> wow. >> urban outfitters put out sign records and record players in the front of the stores. it's a big seller. >> it is. the place we went to, they manufacture vampire weekend, independent artists, but others sell mainstream pop artists. >> sounds better. vinyl sounds better. >> that's what everyone says. i was not a believer, but he played it for me, and you can hear the difference.

he said it's an experience when you listen to it. >> just young people or older folks trying to recapture the vinyl they grew up with? >> both, but half the buyers are under 25. there is a mix. i think it's people who are trying to recapture their youth. >> older people have the vinyl. they don't buy it. >> in my case, i have in the garage, i have to redo in part because when i grew up to the records, i scratched them, and they are not as good as they were, but that's my problem with vinyl is it does not hold up as well. >> other than that, they are playing it on these really crummy portable record play everiers like we had in the 60s and 70s before there was good turntables. it can't be a great sound because it may be the greatest vinyl pressing ever, but there's bad record players. >> there are ones out now much different. >> the retro trend. >> what's more, i asked, do you

think when i went to the record pressing plates, are cassettes next? indy artists give out cassettes when you go to the shows. >> next year, 8 tracks. >> we listened yesterday at my parent's house to wax records. >> oh, wow. >> cool. >> you guys are saying i have to hold on to the old ties in the cl closet because they are coming back? >> maybe not. [ laughter ] >> coming up, russia looking to retaliate against turkey for downing a war plane by imposing economic sanctions. a live report from russia next. . at&t and directv are now one. so get ready to laugh here and cry here. scream over here and freak out over there! and maybe go back to laughing here. and crying there. try not to laugh here though, it's rude. and maybe don't cry here, people will get the wrong idea. get the best of both worlds. directv at home and 2 wireless lines. from directv and at&t.

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assassination attempt of the imprisoned wife, she's safe, hosting a rally when ten shots rang out, and luis was killed, leading member of the venezuelan opposition party, and other news from latin america, when the scandal in brazil could not be bigger, andre esteves was arrested this week, cofounding latin america's largest independent investment bank, and he's accused of trying to obstruct the law in a huge corruption probe that we've been telling you for months now on

cnbc. >> russia looking to retaliate against turkey for downing a war plane by imposing economic sanctions. we are joined live from moscow today. what's the latest? >> reporter: well, the latest is that this war of words is continuing here, and in the kremlin behind me, they will be chewing over the latest comments atritted to the turkish president who has apparently encouraged mr. putin not to play with fire by making allegations that the turks are receiving oil from the terrorists group isis. now, president putin made those suggestions in a meeting with the french president last night, the french president here in moscow to try and encourage greater cooperation in the fight against isis. he also went on to say he believes the americans have evidence that russian companies

and the syrians have been taking oil from isis, so very undiplomatic language has broken out between these two powers. meanwhile, the russians continue to say that they are looking at how they may retaliate against the turkish government for the shooting down of their fighter jet, and one of the ways they talked about doing that is perhaps to restrict access to joint projects, slow down those projects, and to start thinking about other economic sanctions that they might put in place here. to top all of this off, while the war of words has been going on, apparently, the president said he's still very happy to meet with the russian president on monday in paris at the cop21 environment summit. it's a tangled web in moscow this evening.

back to you. >> geoff, thank you very much. the world on high alert in the fight against terror, and joining us on the terrorism front, we have a senior principle analyst for the middle east and north africa, country risk at ihs. what do you expect in terms of how russia now potentially responds to turkey? >> i think what we need to watch out for is the fact that we're not seeing very effective deplop si, and a small part of northern syria is heavily militarized creating a high risk of repeat of the incident that we saw between turkey and russia. the more that these incidents occur, the higher the risk of a broader confrontation. we don't expect a war between the two countries, but we do expect to see more pretty serious incidents that without

some sort of serious diplomatic effort carries risk of escalation. >> do you hear people on either side deescalating at this point? i feel the rhetoric is at a fevered pitch right now and nobody's backing down. what are the prospects, for example, of the meeting on monday between the turkish and russian presidents to perhaps calm things down? >> this kind of meeting can calm things down. what we need to remember is that a lot of the diplomatic effort is focused pretty much exclusively on syria. reality, though, that turkey, russia, saudi arabia, and iran are engaged in a large conflict not limited to syria. when we start seeing summits that involve these countries where we start hearing talk about the -- these powers trying to be zones of influence or trying to come up with a way to

respect each other's spheres of influence, then we see a sign of deescalation. a serious sign of deescalation. right now, we are seeing an effort to get the west to side with one party or another, which is not going to get us very far. >> well, that's my question. if you see more conflict between turkey and russia as likely, at what point do we have obligations under article 5 in nato to support turkey? >> look, the fact that turkey's a nato country and that russia has a nuclear capability leads us to a scenario where what we expect is confrontations outside the country east's territories look to events in crimea and syria. neither is intending on

escalating beyond that. i think they both realize the risks. >> firas, thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> michelle, you need a summit of grownups, actual grownups show up. >> when you find some, let me know. >> nobody is acting in any particular way -- >> so many invested interests. it's a mess, like you said, it's a mess. >> really is a mess. when we come back today, the top story of the morning, the scene from the mall, checking in with the ceo of turnberry, and are the ultra rich out there looking for black friday deals? find out next. have completee not conu visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t's innovative solutions connect machines and people... to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time. leaving you free to focus on what matters most.

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♪ that is a scene from a mall today on black friday. the shopping is well underway. let's check in now to see how things are going in florida. joining us now is jackie, the turn bury association and ceo. the retail, hospitality, and office divisions including shopping mekkah mall, and thank you for being here today. >> thank you for having me. >> so we've seep a lot of pictures this morning, and after retailers have opened on thanksgiving day, on thanksgiving evening, seems that things this morning have been a little quieter than seen in years past.

is that the situation where you are too? >> i think the mall's pretty busy. i've. here since 6:00 this morning, and we've had a lot of customers come through, but it does delude the excitement of black friday because retalers are opening on thursday, so there are shoppers going out on thursday night as well. we still predict a strong day for us. >> when you say very strong, what are you talking about? assuming same store sales increases over last year? >> we do think that we will have same store sale increases over last year. we had a strong year. we had a good tourist base and a good local base, so we think that we're going to have a very strong holiday subpoena as well. >> we heard from some retailers here in manhattan that the stronger dollar has hurt some of the tourism sales that they have been experiencing for several years as the dollar is stronger, fewer tourists coming to the united states and when they are here, they do not buy as much.

have you experienced that where you are? >> i think that there's definitely certain markets where the tourists are not sending as much, the brazilian market, for example, but we still have those customers in the property, and we've increased our market shares from other tourist areas. we have mexico, for example, argentina, colombia, and we are getting more customers from the northeast, new york. miami is a more important city culturely, and people want to be here. >> okay, jackie, thank you for joining us today. the co-chairman and ceo. our guest host today, two retail experts, and you guys have been sitting here throughout the morning, you two were out yesterday as well. how would wow quantity my things at this point? >> basically, what we see out there and people out there right now, american eagle, bath and body works, hollister with the most traffic.

the least traffic, least promotions, definitely gap. you got to go through the weekend in order to see how the numbers wrap up, but i don't think anything we're seeing now is saying that, oh, it's slower than that 3.5% type of sale s gain we expect in the season. >> during the commercial break, we listen to her, like, oh, this came in. >> i have everyone out there. nordstrom busy in certain area. game stop busy. walmart slower than people expected. steve madden, super busy. the team is out in force, and i'll be out after this. >> jan? >> same thing? very strong last night 6:00 p.m. to midnight, up 5% from 36 p.m. to midnight. nobody thought it would be good. overnight, the business is not that big anyway so that's not changing trajectory, but the point is that 2:30 today is the busiest we're ever going to see the stores, and we're not going

to know that until 2:30 today, but i mean, if i had to be more or less optimistic at the moment, i'm more optimistic coming into the weekend. until you see what happens saturday, because you can give back on saturday, people just came out early, it's gorgeous. it was nice yesterday. most of the countries have mild weather today. people can get out. will they continue to shop saturday? will we give it back? last year, we gave it back. so far, it's been quite solid. >> when you say 2:30 today is the best of the weekend or the best of the entire season? >> well, it might be the best of the entire season unless 2:30 super saturday is, but it will probably be certain the best volume in the stores, in other words, if you're watching, don't go to the store at 2:30 today, there's no parking spaces. it'll be packed because it's the heaviest factor load we get all weekend. >> and them we have the super saturday, given that christmas is on friday, saturday before will be busy also and the

saturday after christmas given that christmas is on a friday, we should have good numbers then. >> my mom's favorite shopping day of the year, the day after christmas. all right, cool. when we return, the force is strong with us this holiday season. our favorite jeti, we are in a detroit store far, far away. >> reporter: i've gone to the dark side or the dork side? it's a good time to come to toys "r" us right now, folks, it's empty. last night, they did $60,000 worth of business at the store, more than previous three days. good business year for toys because the force is strong with this one.

yes, even you have never faced such a test. >> that's another trailer just leased for the upcoming "star wars" movie, the toy industry poised for a blockbuster holiday season with retail provider mvp group projecting the best increase in toy sales in ten

years. "star wars," wealll, it's got a lot do with it. ja jane wells joins us now. >> yes, i own this. this is not a prop i borrowed. the power of the force. well, "star wars" the movie could potentially rake in $2 billion but hasbro thinks it could raise more. disney gets 20%. new technology should help speed up the process today. >> we have our gps up at the front that helps the customers find what they're looking for. we'll have little store maps to help them navigate around the store. we even have apps for smartphones that will help them navigate through the store.

>> although right now it's pretty empty in the store. they did have about 150 people come through last night. they're going to have door busters at 7:00, a special express line. i downloaded the app. apps are becoming as important inside the store as out of it. he said things like swag way or shopkins or drones are pop lo lar, if you don't think "star wars" is going to be popular, i find it disturbing. >> this is perhaps one of the most signifying unifying toys we receive in a long time. it's the ability of its cross-generation that makes its so powerful in terms of driving sale this year. >> as for toys for grown-ups, they're selling a mask but it won't be ready until spring. as for now, platforms for 300 bucks, or for 50 bucks, a darth

vader toaster. impressive. most impressive. back to you. >> fantastic. >> where do we get your jacket? i want one of those. >> i bought it online at target. it's like about 40 degrees up here in the bay area. it's so freaking cold i actually needed this today. >> thank you, jane. always fantastic. final thought from our guest host. $4 billion? $5 billion in sales products? pretty amazing. >> it's not just toys. kay jewelers has done a whole line. >> really. >> yeah. so when i was in kohl's on wednesday, i saw 3-foot star troopers standing in the aisles. >> there t mall that's going to play movies, are they going to

be busier? >> there's a reason every mall wants a movie theater and a cheesecake factory. they want the traffic. if they bring in traffic every day for the next two weeks, nay'll see a lot more sales. >> who buys "star wars" jewelry? >> i want the jacket. i don't want "star wars" jewelry. >> kids. >> i bought you a darth vader pin for your anniversary. >> i think it's super popular. think of the core case customer. they're going to the movies, whether it's bracelets or pins. these are some of the things that move the needles. it's going to be not only what they have from "star wars" but "alex & annie." it will be a good jewelry christmas this year. >> thank you, folks. you've been joining us here for this black friday. it's a great to have you. >> we'll be watching you wear

your "star wars" jewelry next time. >> i'm waiting for the old ties to come up. >> thank you very much. up next, we've been reading your tweets all morning long. many of you sharing your deals. keep "squawk"ing. we'll be right back.

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welcome back, everybody. right now it's time for keep squawking. these are the stories that keep you buzzing. target already reporting a strong start, saying that it sold an ipad every second throughout the day on thanksgiving. it also sold more than 3 million movies. of course, not all of you are hitting the stores for deals, choosing to celebrate from the couch instead. one says only the nuts are out there. >> we told you a piece in "rolling stone." a growing number or some number may be experiments with micro doses of lsd to help them work. a lot of you writing about this.

one "squawk" fan tweets that drugs should never be acceptable in the office. he says that drug use might explain bad software in the valley. how do you like that idea. some of those beta versions not as up to snuff as they should be. >> or your app doesn't work as it should. thank you very much. >> my pleasure. >> michelle. >> thank you. >> right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl kwinquintanilla. jim is off. we assess the state of retail on this black friday. relatively flat session in europe, although, shanghai down over 5% as regulators reportedly crack down on some security