disney. the stock is still up more than 25% so far this year. are they girl toys for star wars? are they just boy toys? this new character, ray, is going to be the substitute for leah. >> i know princess leah, and i have a lot of homework to do. i do have tickets. >> let's get to bill and melissa for the close. >> it is family day at the new york stock exchange. you'll hear lots of voices behind us here. i'm bill griffeth. black friday means a shortened market day, and we are kick offing the last hour of trading right now. while some of the malls and stores are looking much calmer than in previous black fridays, retailers are still optimistic about sales for the whole shopping season. we'll talk about why coming up

here. >> disney dragging the dow today. espn has lost seven million subscribers in the last two years. we'll discuss whether direct consumer strategy could help turn things around. >> and while some may think december is a good month tore discretionary stocks, think again. we have the three best performing stocks in december over the last ten years. some of them may surprise you. >> i think it will surprise me. i love surprises. courtney reagan, at a mall in illinois. bill gray at a mall in the twin cities. surveying the big box stores. he is in detroit. courtney, start things off for us. >> the holiday season is officially underway here. maybe less of the door buster --

the traffic is picking up. probably at the highest point it's been since the predawn hours here. somewhere ll says that 90% of it's retailers are reporting that traffic is the same as last year, possibly even a little stronger. not all analysts are saying they agree. fbr suszan anderson is out around the d.c. area, and she does still expect it would be a big weekend, but thinks that sales have probably lightly been sprayed out over a week, maybe even ten days. american eagle and old navy -- and gap's old navy's. shopper did get strong starting to the on-line sales. ibm is reporting that thanksgiving sales are up 26% over last year, and target says it had its biggest day ever

on-line. we know that that also probably lettens the foot traffic in stores, and that's an issue because an on-line sale ultimately is more expensive. it costs a retailer more than a sale that's done in store. also lessens the impulse buying. retailer web sites have performed well under heavy traffic with the xepg of neiman marcus. catch point systems pointed this out to us. starting around 8:00 a.m. eastern time, neiman marcus's home page has been largely unavailable. let's go to my pal jay gray who is at the mall of america in the twin cities area trying to stay out of the shoppers' way there. jay. it's tough. we've seen waves of shoppers, as courtney talked about, spotty in the overnight, early morning hours. really picking up at this point. a lot of people coming through,

and they're carrying bags. that means they're not only shopping, but they're spending. this has become part of the holiday tradition for a lot of families, a lot of friends who want to spend some time together, and they do that. they come out immediately after the meal, some of them, and there were stores open here last night. others waited until this morning, the early morning hours, long before the sun came up. we saw shoppers here. again, they were coming in waves then. now we're seeing a more steady flow here. talking to a lot of the retailers. they like what they see. they think this is going to be a good holiday season. i know i'm working, and i'm not supposed to get out, but i did because i found the perfect gift for melissa. i know you'll like this. you can wear it next week on the air. it's the gopher head from here at the mall of america. gopher head on the way. i expect to see it next week. >> i've always wanted those, jay. thank you so much. really, you shouldn't have. you shut down not have. >> they look so good on you.

you'll want to keep it. our thanks to you. he has been doing channel schex for corps like wal-mart and kohl's. great to have you with us. the bar has been set so low in terms of expectations for store traffic. what have you seen? >> i was pretty surprised by how quiet it was last night. not saying quiet, but relative to where i thought it would be. wal-mart in particular. i mean, i walked in some stores at 7:00, 8:00 last night, and you could walk straight through the checkout with really no problem. in some areas of the store i saw more employees than customers. kohl's looked pretty good, though, so i would say it's mixed, and i think target is probably somewhere in the middle. i think last year they used the word awesome. i think you probably can read

into that a little bit. as you know, retail is a lot like real estate. it's all local. is a city like detroit going to have different results that other cities that may be in better shape economically? >> bill, it's been rebounding here quite a bit. i think it's a good picture of just america overall in terms of what is going on with consumer spending. it's the same. we're seeing the same kind of shift to on-line spending and what not, and that has an impact on bricks and morted ar retail traffic. >> it's about an a good proxy to checks stores in this area in terms of trying to predict what's going to happen overall. >> target has already been out with a press release saying that they saw unprecedented results from their website on thanksgiving.

are these unprecedented? does that add up to what could be a decent holiday quarter for target? >> that's a slowdown from where they were earlier this year. they were up near 40% growth. i hi the trend has been a slowing trend for the year. with them up 20% year-over-year, you would expect it to be a record holiday for target on-line. it's still early. i hear what others are saying about the build-up in traffic as today progresses. >> good to see you. thanks for joining us today. >> thank you. >> you bet.

all right. joining our closing bell exchange for this black friday, steve from iht wealth management is with us. jack from index financial partners is in chicago. swron than joins us here at post nine on the traditional family day at the new york stock exchange. >> wonderful day here today. it's a tradition that's been going on for a long time. it's great to see the young kids down here. expose them to what we do and how we to it. the family atmosphere is something that we really chair wrish. >> might explain the low volume we're seeing today. >> very low volume. can you tell on your commute in, there were not a lot of cars on the road or in the parking lot. we're getting the lackluster market activity that we normally get on a half day. >> we're setting up for what could be a big week next week, even though today is very quiet. we have an ecb meeting and jobs report. how are traileders positioning themselves? >> you are absolutely right. i think everybody is flattening out. they're waiting. we have the end of the month, the mark to market.

we have the yuan vote. then we have janet yellen speaking twice and mario draghi on the ecb, and then we top it off with the last big data point before the fed meeting, and that's unemployment next friday. we are really loading up. i hi next week will be the week where it's a make or break from the year for stocks. you say maybe it's time to start managing expectations for returns into the end of the year, right? i hey client in the last five years he had a thing -- he made 60%. he is a conservative man. very conservative man. he is, like, is that all we made? again, five years ago, he would have done cart wheels down the hallway ifs i would have hold him those returns.

people are forgiving that the markets don't go up every single day. that negative returns sometimes are actually healthy for the overall market, and to think that we're going to do crazy returns even if, like you were saying, we make 5% or 6% if things look right at the end of the year here, which might be on the high side, it's hard to believe that we're going to see the 10% to 20% returns any time soon. it's not bad in the grand scheme of things. it's better than the bonds. >> we hit yields hit three-week lows. you're nodding your head, jonathan, vigorously, when it came to this is a quiet week, but next week could be make or break. >> clearly. look at the calendar next week. we've got the end of the month, and then a ton of economic data. we've been talking about fed and interest rates. we've been getting closer to that point. couple that with all the data, and especially the date ai can't that if ied has been asking for

and been waiting for. jack, you have been a long-time bull here, but you think very quickly that oil could be a problem for this market going into the new year, don't you? >> you can probably count on your hand the amount of times i get bearish. we are in the file stages of the first leg, i think, whaf i think is the secular bull that started in 2009. next year could be a very difficult year for stocks. i want everybody to hear me when i say that. think of 2008, think of 2000, think of 1992. we can go back. election years, when you handle overpower, become very messy. everybody needs to know that. everybody needs to be guarded going into that. we have to be ready for it. >> so noted. everybody managing expectations.

in the meantime, enjoy the long weekend. thank you, guys. appreciate it. see you later. >> we'll bring your attention -- speaking of jack in chicago. the protests in chicago over a video of a police officer fatally shooting a black teenager a couple of years ago. we're going to keep covering this story as it develops. we'll head to chicago. it is raining there, and we were maybe managing expectations for the turnout for this protest. it does look like the turnout is pretty decent in chicago there. just a reminder, this is the last hour of trading. dow down four points. light volume. >> up next, as espn losing its mojo. the cable network losing seven million subscribers in two

years. mike has a look at what disney could do to stem the losses. also, still to come, target says apple ipads and apple watches are flying off the shelves today. will that translate into a record quarter for the tech giant? we'll look at that next on "the closing bell."

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disney shares falling today on news espn has lost seven million subscribers over the last two kweerz. disney ceo bob eiger first alerted to concerns about loss of subscribers back in the earnings call. here's what he said on ""squawk box"" the following day. >> we are very bullish about our cable business, and we're very bullish about espn. we did want to note the sublosses that we had seen. we also have an nba deal that kicks in in 2017, but after 2017 we believe espn is going to deliver very compelling growth for this company because it's great product. it's a great brand. it is in an industry that we actually feel bullish about. >> mike santelli joins us. they buried this report very late on wednesday as everybody

was heading out for thanksgiving holidays here. it was not unexpected. i mean, they already warned us last august. >> not unexpected if you have been watching the cable and other -- pay tv industry in general. this is the 10k. this is the annual filing. these, by the way, are nielsen numbers. disney citing. nielsen subscriber numbers. there is a bit of an apples to oranges question. pay tv in general has lost about 1.5% of subscribers past couple of years each year. this looks like more than 3% loss for disney or espn specifically. that's probably because nielsen does not capture certain things like sling tv. basically it's what we already knew, which is there is some cord cutting going on, and especially younger people are not signing up for pay tv as much. to me it just quantifies what he was talking about over the summer. >> so it's an affirmation of those comments in august. at the same time for disney's stock, i mean, it's an issue of a stock that's price odd a forward basis at $21. >> exactly. >> and that's priced for growth in this sector. this is not showing growth. even if these numbers are simply

affirmation of what we heard in august. >> that's why i think the market is trying to rethink exactly how to value the meeting at disney. time warner, for comparison, about 14 times next year's earnings. there is a huge premium for disney because of the quality of the brands. yes, you basically had this situation for years. when espn was considered to be the absolute premium way to pay the pay tv bundle. it was just the way to on it, and now it's a little less certain. it's not saying disney is out of answers because they can go over the top. they do have some expensive sports rights programs they're going to have to pay up for. i think this is really the market saying this stock came from 95 back to 120 in hurry. let's take some off. >> viacom is another one. they've been hit harder than disney in terms of loss of subscribers. >> we're not seeing people somehow opt out of espn specifically. it's basically just saying, hey, we're not going to buy the bundle as much as we did before, and viacom is, of course, a little more advertising dependent in its cable networks

than disney as they have the pricing power with fees. the cable networks revenue up 10% last year. even as subs went down for the core espn products. it seems to be they still have that pricing power. >> if we didn't get a ruling in new york state about fantasy sports and whether they can continue to operate in new york on wednesday, that is, for disney and for espn specifically, that was a big contributor to ad revenues. it was 118 million dollars in a month of september along with the lion's share of that dollar amount going to espn. what could the impact be if they cannot operate in one of the biggest markets? >> i view it as this very sudden ad windfall for espn that maybe went away. i don't think it really built into the general longer term trend of exactly what ad demand is there, but, look, at every new marginal advertiser is a boon to any traditional cable network, so it's a loss if, in fact, these businesses are going to be on the defensive for a while. >> fascinating story. thank you. >> down 3.25%. >> target, meanwhile, saying it sold an ipad a second in

thanksgiving on-line sales. not bad. the fourth quarter is usually a big one for apple, but without a new major release, will apple be able to deliver? joining us now brian blair, and max wolf from manhattan venture partners. brian, let's start off with you. yeah, ipads are great, but they're not the profit driver. they're not the revenue driver. it would be more impressive for an apple stockholder if the company -- if target said they sold an iphone every second. >> that's exactly right. they clearly are selling a lot of ipads, but the main reason for that is because they're offering these $08 and $1 had been gift cards. what's happening is, you know, the ipad has been declining year-over-year in overall volume for the last year. we've seen it down every quarter. what we're seeing now is it's unprecedented. $08 and $100 gift cards. some of the lower ipads is $150 if you include the card as a discount. that's why they're selling so well. they're doing the same thing with the watch. the watch has $08 and $100 gift

cards as well. it is selling very well. >> you know, last spring when they brought the apple watch out, tim cook said, look, he was managing expectations at that time, but he said come the holidays, when christmas comes along, this will be a big seller. do you think it will be? >>. >> i never was a big bull of the watch, as you know. i thit watch is an accessory to a phone. i think only that many people want to be a fashion vehicle for an accessory, for a device they already bought from apple. i think the 7 series upgrade in the not too distant future, and i think the much maligned and often ignored enterprise business are exciting for apple. that being said, i think the only interesting new product they have in consumer land this holiday season is the apple tv, which i think is a better product than it gets credit for. the watch, i just don't think will ever get massive traction. at least not in this or the next

generation. >> that's right. to your earlier point, melissa, it really is all about the iphone. we can talk about the ipad. we can talk about the watch, apple tv. all the volumes of all those products are too low to move the needle for apple in any meaningful way this year or next year. it is about iphone sales. a lot of analysts are thinking p 5 million, 76 million wrun its for the quart, but wire not seeing the frenz where i at the retail level. we're really not seeings that at the carrier level. >> venture looks like some of the air went out of the sales, and the most crazy unicorn names. the money went crazy on a valuation and multiple basis and

with that being said, big tech will still be an outperform for the next six, 12, and 18 months. apple stilling reasonably valued just because there's so much cash, so much cash flow here. we don't expect a big whiff. we think 74 million i phones comfortably. that's the magic number. i think that apple usually guides very conservative tily and blows out the numbers. i don't see a blow-out. i i see them hedging barely or hitting the moderately conservative guidance this time. >> there was a feeling at one time that once you bought one apple product, you would want the whole universe. we don't think that is a valid premise anymore? maybe not translating into commensurate sales for some of the other items that they're selling? >> it still is the case. people are buying into the ecosystem. if you have a mack or you start with an iphone, you probably bought a mac. you are at least considering a watch and maybe looking at an ipad. that is still a true statement.

the difference is people are holding on to their phones for longer periods of time. the replacement cycle is lengthening. with products like the watch, there's simply a big contingent of apple consumers saying i don't need that. i have one. it's fine, but it's not really that needful. it's not really a necessity yet. i'll be curious to see what they do with it rags two and three, but out of the gate there's not a ton of demand for it. >> all right. very good. thank you, guys. good to see you. >> thank you. >> we've got 36 minutes left of the trading session here. the dow is down one point. just a reminder, this is the last hour of the trading session. it is a half day. >> we're about six minutes away from the most important half hour of trading, bill. >> really? >> yes. >>. >> you have learned well. >> i did. coming up, we'll tell you which stock performed best in december, and here's a hint. they are not in the consumer discretionary sector. >> tell me where they are. also ahead, a major protest on

chicago's storied magnificent mile began a short time ago. it is raining. we were thinking maybe it wouldn't turn out as large as expected. still waiting to see how big this gets as it progresses throughout the afternoon. we'll have the latest developments next on "closing bell."

>> bright spot on this fairly flat friday after thanksgiving. the airline stocks, the most busy travel weekend, booking pretty nice gains. american up almost 2%.

united couldn't -- this could also be helped by the decline we're seeing in wti as well as brent today. stroo we told you about this mass march that was planned in chicago on michigan avenue there. we were wondering how big it was going to be. reporter anna reece is on the scene there. what can you tell us? >> several hundred people, they say this is a protest for economic justice. they want chicagoans who are out today shopping on the magnificent mile here to feel their pain about the mcdonald's shooting. i have one of the protesters with me, david. >> yes. >> give me a sense of why you came out, what is the goal of this protest? >> justice is more than simply the -- possible sentence. that's just the beginning. justice is significant social and economic change. there are people being killed by

the police in chicago all the time. there's injustice all the time. justice is economic -- justice is a fair nonracist police force. justice is better schools, job opportunities, opportunities for advancement, opportunities for life. this is just the beginning of the struggle for jugs. >> anita alvarez, both of them to step down. this protest will now continue just a few more blocks until they get to water tower, which is a mall and they may attempt to enter that mall. whether or not the police will allow them to do that, we don't know.

>> i was up very early this morning. i saw lines at best buy. there were lines at h & m, and macy's was open all night. they opened up at 6:00. i saw people coming out, but that was early this morning. right now i can look around and tell you not a lot of shoppers are here now. they probably were afraid to come out knowing that this would happen. michigan avenue is essentially shut down. lounge this lasts, how much of the fed's platform --

>> let's go to jackie deangeles. >> looks like we're going to settle around this 1056 mark of a $13 loss for gold prices on the day. down more than 1%. down almost 2% on the week. a six-year low for gold, and also six straight weeks of losses. this precious metal has had a hard time getting going, and most traders don't think it will. especially for rate hike on the table in december. interesting in the metals complex, the dollar index, over 100 keeping these metals depressed, but copper bucking the trend and seeing positive territory today. finishing the week up. copper was really beaten down. it makes sense that people may be getting back into that trade. back to you. >> all right, jackie. thank you. time for a cnbc news update with tyler matheson. hey, ty. >> police in chicago charging a man for the murder of a 9-year-old boy there, and they say they are pursuing charges against two others. authorities say.

>> the motive believed to be gang related. an investigation is underway into a deadly attack today in nigeria. officials say at least 15 people were killed, and more than 40 injured after a suicide bomb attack that happened during an annual religious procession involving hundreds of moderate shiite muslims. a new suspect facing charges in connection with the paris attacks. a man was arrested in belgium yesterday. he is charged with terrorist attacks and taking part in the activities of a terrorist group. a new study finding that interim ceos are more likely to massage the numbers. the academy of management journal says it found evidence of more instances of earnings inflation by interim chief executives than by permanent successors. that's the cnbc news update at this hour. back to you, folks.

>> how this black friday is stacking up compared to those in years past zoosh a trader will tell you what he is watching when the week winds down. a busy week coming up next week.

take a look at china stocks. the shanghai composite posted its worst drop since the august market rout. alibaba shares down .4%. sina really feeling the pain there. down 3% in today's session. bill. sfroo all right. thank you very much. here on the stock exchange with matt. >> this is family day at the new york stock exchange, so all the traders bring their kids for the trading day. >> who is the whole cheslock family.

>> we're going to take care of it all by ourselves. >> these two are mine. these are some of the virtu family, and various others that slipped in. >> welcome, everybody here. >> we have china included. while that's ceremony wral, but, you know, it's important stuff for their currency. markets not reacting at all to what china did over last night. that's a good sign. going into the weekend, and looks like tensions are slowing down a little bit in syria, between russia and turkey. i think things are looking good. getting retail numbers that are positive. we'll start shopping after 1:00. that will give a big boost. sdmroog guys, as we go out here, i want you to say buy low, sell high. you ready? one, two, three. >> buy low, sell high. >> all yours, thank you, matt. >> you train them well, bill.

>> get them started early. >> when the clock strikes 12:00 tanger outlet centers like this one in washington d.c. opened its doors to post-thanksgiving shopping sprees. great to have you with us. various regular priced malls. what are you seeing? >> we're seeing the xlooelgts complete opposite. traffic is up more than 45% in one of our centers in the phoenix market. virtually every one of our 43 centers in the country has had positive traffic compared to last year. the demise of retail is well exaggerated. traffic in tanger outlet centers is braking records this year. >> i don't think we're talking about a demise in retail as much as a transition. more people want to shop

on-line. how do you compete with that? >> we've been competing with that for 20 years. this is not new. as much as in our categories which are primarily -- it's very difficult if it's unpackaged or the sole is scuffed to sell it again as a new product. keep in mind, only 7% of all product is brought on-line, which means 73% is bought in brick and mortar stores. >> a lot of retailers are opening up their own factory locations. macy's has back stage. nordstrom has rack, and there are regular off price sort of retailers like a tj max. they are doing very, very well. how does that eat into traffic at an outlet center when i can go to a nordstrom rack or bloomingdale's outlet on the upper west side now. >> it has not eaten into ow traffic, obviously. our sales are up. our traffic is up.

consumers love to buy direct from the manufacturer and cut out the middle man. they say that tremendous amount every day on the best brand names and designer names in the world. you really don't know what you are going to find in tj max, marshall's, or the new department store outlets, bloomingdale's is still testing their concept. macy's is testing their concept. they have published that their target competitor is tj max. not the outlets. we are completely different distribution channel with the best brand name products in full assortments and colors. you woint find that in a department store off price. >> are we saying that we're still seeing an overhang? people are very, very price conscious still, and is this still a result of an overhang from 2008 and beyond? >> well, bill, in good times people like a bargain. in tough times like these, they need a bargain. the outlets win in every situation. we're thrilled. this is the part of the cycle where durable goods are selling.

it was announced this morning we're trending for 18 million cars being sold in the u.s. this year. that's an enormous amount of disposable income out of the system. new home sales are up. people are buying a car this year, and maybe buying new sweater next year. if we're doing this well at this point in the cycle, we can't wait for next year when nondurables come back. >> are you worried, though, steve? you are in the midst of expansion. you have sold lower tiered assets which wall street likes, but you are expabding. you promised wall street four new centers, which is a 10% expansion next year, and have you more in the pipeline. are we going to reach a point? are you concerned we're going to get to the point where there are too many factory outlets? we saw the likes of a -- they say they discounted their product too much. people are dwegt concerned that perhaps there's going to be some brand dilution. are we going to get over storied here?

>> this is the only sector of retail where there's more demand for space than space available. there's only 66 million square feet. >> you are opening these new centers, and you are demanding the same sorts of leases, the same prices. i mean, everything is the same or higher in terms of what you pull in? >> absolutely. the four new centers we open this year average of 10% cash on cash return. and by the end of the first year we'll be 95% occupied. clearly we're reflection of what the consumer wants. they want to shop in the outlets. for every brand that says they have too many, there are other competitors that are opening more. >> here's a retailer who is smiling. >> welcome back. we have just about 20 minutes -- 18 minutes left to the closing bell. the dow is up a whopping four points still since we're in that

holiday shopping season. talk about shopping all day long here. it may be time to look at stocks to buy. dom has the best performing stocks in december for the last decade. he joins us next to reveal what they are. santa claus is not the only character coming to town this season. hans sole yes will be hitting holiday movie screens with a galaxy of action figures to follow. swran wells live from toy land coming up.

here's a question for you. what did you buy ten years ago during the holiday season that has actually increased in value? >> i have no idea. but i'm more than likely it is not a sweater or an out of date electronic gadget, but if you did buy a certain stock, you are a wise shopper. dominik has tracked the best performing stocks through the holiday season over the last ten years, and what have you found, dom? >> it's interesting, guys. as we talk about these things, history is in many ways a guide for traders. it can't tell the future necessarily, but it does give an idea about certain pattern that is develop. we, melissa, bill, asked our data partners over at kenshow to take a look at some of the best performing s&p 500 stocks ---ing

the month of december. if you bought at the end of november and sold at the end of december over the last ten years, which stocks have done the best? check these out. first of all, red hat. this is the operating system company that does cloud software. red hat shares on average have gained 12.5%, and they've been up nine out of the last ten decembers. that's a red hot trade during the month of december. ventis is a real estate investment trust. a reet that specializes in health care companies. think hospital buildings, medical office buildings. that sort of thing. up nearly 8%. it's been up ten out of the last ten decembers. then advanced auto marts. for all you do-it-yourselfers, you want to work on your own cars during the winter months. those shares up by about 4%, and they've been up nine out of the last ten decembers. if you take a look at some of these trades, melissa, bill, it's not necessarily that they will, in fact, post gains, but if you look at recent memory, over the last decade, these have been winners, so the question then becomes, melissa, bill, whether the trends continue for some of these stocks.

they've got a pretty decent track record behind. back over to you, guys. >> that gain in red hat for the month of december seems to be completely off the charts. is there any seasonality? i can't think of anything that would cause that sort of a gain in one month. >> no, what's been interesting, too, is over the last three or so years we've seen the outsized gains for red hat. anywhere from 6% to 8%, anywhere from 9% to 10%. an interesting story there. the question becomes whether or not there really is a causation or a correlation between the two of them. right now we're not seeing that there is. just that for some reason or another red hat shares have had news, have had developments that all seem to coincide in the months of december. at least for the past four or five years since the financial crisis, guys. >> maybe a misunderstanding on which red hat you are buying in the holiday season. >> good point by you. >> dom, thank you. >> thank you, dom. >> we have about 12 minutes before the bell rings, and we have a split on the dow and the s&p. the dow is down now by just about 5 points. the s&p is higher by 2.

>> up next we have a tradition on this on fridays. david darst joins us, and he will be here with his thoughts on the markets and what to watch out for in the week ahead as well. stay tuned. important than your health. or the freedom to choose what doctor you want to see. so if you have medicare parts a and b, consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, these let you choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. you're not stuck in a network, because there aren't any. plus, these plans help cover some of the part b medical expenses medicare doesn't pay. so why wait? call now to request your free decision guide and find the aarp medicare supplement plan that works for you. like all medicare supplement plans, you'll be able to stay with the doctor or specialist you trust, or look for someone new - as long as they accept medicare patients. but unlike other plans, these are the only ones

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about nip minutes left in the trading session here. our friend david darst joins us. we were just talking during the break. black friday has lost some of the cachschaschet it had. >> people are staying open on thanksgiving, bill. melissa was saying the internet people are shopping online. last year's retail sales were $650 billion during the holidays. $110 billion was online and i expect that number will continue to increase. >> you bet. >> it's good for the package delivery companies. it should be good for the fed exes and u.p.s.s of the world. >> but everybody is discounting so much now. they're cutting deals to gain market share and i'm talking about even the packagers and the u.p.s.s and fed exes of the world out there. they're all scrambling for

market share and nobody is making much money. >> deflationary forces continue to roil the world, and i mean people who shop and wait for sales now, many people are continuously offering discounts, and so many people that are in the fashion world, they're waiting for that 40% sale. now it's perpetually on sale. so this i think is a deflationary thing. the thing the fed and the monetary authorities of the world are worried about is this leads to the pernicious form of deflation. pernicio it's the worst kind of deflation. it's not supply induced deflation, which is what we have all over the world. demand shortfall deflation is when a couple goes to the department store and a year later they come back and it's 10% cheaper and they say let's wait another year, melissa. >> i get that for certain goods, but people are, in fact, spending money. they're not spending on sweaters but spending on experiences and automobiles. a lot of analysts say we will

see peak autos. >> 18.2 million was the november number. >> are we pulling forward? are we going to face years where the automakers whose stocks haven't done well this year even with record sales will face an even harder time because people have already -- they spent their money not on sweaters but on cars already? >> and they spent on home furnishings. they've not spent on perishable things. they spent on more durable things, automobiles, things that can -- carpets, curtains, things that go in the home and don't have a fast fashion life. so there is that worry that the -- that the demand is being pulled forward. but, melissa, i think if you get something coming back, a bit of consumer confidence, i think the terrorism things and that's one thing i want all your viewers to see, that if they're worried about terrorism, they should take defensive action now. higher cash, some government bonds, and perhaps some cheap

hedges. way out of the money puts. if they're worried about it. not everybody is worried about it. >> right. >> very good, david. >> good advice. >> thank you. have a great weekend. >> have a lovely weekend. see you next week. busy week next week. rest up. >> ism manufacturing, nonmanufacturing, we have a lot going on. european central bank on thursday. >> we're coming back with a closing countdown because the market is about to close. >> after the bell, this holiday season promises to be the flight of the drones with as many as 1 million crafts expected to hit the sky but the faa may be grounding some of the high flying machines. we have the details ahead, you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. all right. heading into the last two minutes here. closing countdown, mary thompson is with me on the floor of the new york stock exchange. a few of the charts to look at for the week on this shortened trading week. the dow itself will finish virtually neutral. >> 17823 would have been flat. we'll be a little lower. >> you know who had a good week, oil. up 6.5% just this week. >> very good week for oil. bad week for gold. worse week i believe since 2010. >> what, is it six straight weeks gold has gone down.

>> the first six-week losing streaks since 2010 but another bad week for gold. >> and a continued flattening of the yield curve with the 10-year and the 30 going lower as the 2 and 5s move a little higher getting ready for that rate increase. >> right. >> possibility. >> they're expecting this december from the federal reserve and next week the focus will be on what the ecb does when they meet and whether or not they put some additional stimulus. next week is some of the traders were mentioning, david darst was mentioning earlier, a very busy week, lots of economic data, and that's going to be what drives the markets. >> and i think janet yellen speaks twice next week. >> and stanley fischer as well. >> somebody said ten fed officials speaking next week. so we'll have plenty to digest from them as we get ready for that big meeting on the 15th and the 16th. >> that's right. we'll be watching that first rate increase if it happens which we've all been waiting for in almost a decade here in the u.s. >> very good. thanks, mary. see you later. we're going out with minor

declines in the major averages. cibc is celebrating miracle day helping kids rise above here at the new york stock exchange. family day at the big board. let's continue though now with the second hour of t"the closin bell." >> and welcome to "the closing bell" on this black friday. i'm melissa lee, bill griffeth will be rejoining us shortly. let's see how we're finishing up the shortened day. the dow looking to snap a two-day winning streak, down by 12 points on the session. the s&p 500 managing to eke out a gain of 1.5 points. the nasdaq composite closing up for the third consecutive session higher by a quarter of a perce percent. one area that was strong today, biotech. the biotech etf closing high we are a gain of almost 1%. joining us our own mike santoli. also with us for more on today's market action is michael from

the inflation rotation fund and jon najarian from the mall of america. dr. j, what are you seeing out there in your hat? >> out here, melissa, we're seeing traffic as far as foot traffic through the mall. you are just seeing a twizzard behind me. they make it snow behind me. so that's kind of interesting. but what they've got going on here is they started last night at 6:00 p.m., so they've dialed forward, as you have already said, a lot of the demand that normally would be here and the crowds would be bigger right now, but instead they started way early yesterday and, of course, amazon and the online retailers have been hitting it hard and bringing people online. so i think a lot of folks are waiting for deals rather than rushing into the doors of some of these big retailers. >> you know, mike santoli, we really didn't dwell much on this huge decline in the chinese

market overnight. the security officials going after the brokerages there for shorting. oh. among other things. they had a 5.5% decline there. didn't translate here. >> maybe the one message that came out of the u.s. session today was we were not going to really panic about that, and obviously the u.s. stocks have sought to delink from the shanghai market i guess because it's an aggressive regulatory action that sparked the move as opposed to more indications of a hard landing economically for china, that might be why the u.s. market can kind of sit here. once again, just sit here. and sit here at these levels right below 2100 on the s&p where it's kind of stalled out several times this year. >> i feel like it's the calm before the storm, the calm being today and the storm being next week, a series of fed officials speaking. wi an opec meeting, an ecb meeting, a jobs report. all these catalysts. >> it's funny michael use the

word sitting. if you sit too long it creates adverse health effects. the central bank is going to be important to watch. if draghi disappoints, which he seems to have done, it's no different than bringing a butter knife to the machine gun fight of deflation, i the fact you're seeing the yield curve flatten, oil still fall, it's a very big concern near term. you can absolutely have stocks go higher into december, but i do think you have to be worried about some of this action going on in the bond market as we enter the first rate hike in neroli a deer in nearly a decade. >> dr. j, do you try to play the retailers at all? is there a seasonal patpattern? >> there usually is but it was so disjointed. because of the omni channel, because of the online, quite

obviously they've stolen a lot of the thunder that normally would be here right now, but people are still very actively shopping. obviously l brands, the victoria secret brand, they're killing it out here. people are carrying multiple bags of that. and that's not just because i looked there, bill. that's what people are carrying. lots of bags from those stores, and i think overall this has been positive to see people out shopping. i was here the day after the paris attacks and people were out in droves then. so this isn't related i don't think to people being worried about that. i think it's mainly just that drawing forward of that demand. >> doc, i mean, you're out there doing channel checks but for the trade, for the retailers that you're trading, does it matter what you see in the malls today? isn't the trade over by now going into black friday? >> yes. >> yes? >> yes, it is. it is over as far as that goes, mel. i think you take a look at the

run that l brands has made into this or any of the select retailers that have really done well, and then you look at the rest of them. target, of course, is killing it today. ipads as well as the apple watch are flying off on the online side of target and they're setting records there. but as far as through the doors, i don't think anybody is setting records today because of how much they drew it forward by offering things as early as monday this past week. >> in fact, mike santoli, you feel like this strong seasonal tendency we get in the markets at the end of the year has already played itself out as we get ready for the fed next month. >> at least this very short seasonal stretch at the end of november into early december. actually historically it's one of the strongest small runs of the market, and i feel like we had this really big bounce last week off that mid-november low, and it's just everyone is talking about seasonals. you can't find somebody who has a strongly bullish case for why we ramped at the year end except for seasonal factors. yes, draghi might be generous,

maybe we'll get the euro stimulus going, but the dollar seems to have priced a lot of that in. i'm not saying that means we fall apart. it's a range-bound situation as we've had for the year. >> michael, would you agree with that, that pretty much all the action for the year has been seen? >> it's interesting michael mentioned seasonality. the other kind of seasonality is interest rates on the long end of the curve. the fact you're not really seeing treasury yields rise as we enter the period when the fed itself will raise potentially short rates i think is very interesting that you have this kind of bizarre cycle that's happening that does argue the point that a lot of things probably are priced in and keep the following in mind just very long term here. u.s. stocks priced in a lot of optimism. international emerging markets priced in the pessimism. the truth is somewhere in between. if we're going to look at opportunities, i don't think we'll look at consumer stocks in the u.s. look at consumer globally and if

there's a potential for a rebound there. >> michael, thank you. appreciate you joining us today. dr. j, stay right there. we want to talk more with you. americans are out in force with their holiday shopping presumably today, but they're not just doing it at the mall. >> courtney reagan is taking the pulse of the traditional shopper in illinois. we start off with josh lip to be in the heart of ebay's war room in san jose. josh? >> well, melissa, here at ebay it's not just about tech and toys. gold is also a real hot spot. the company telling me between $1 million and $2 million of precious metals sold on ebay every 24 hours. buyers include investors, collectors, also you see people buying gold and melting it down for other purposes like jewelry. another thing we want to mention today, game consoles, very hot. the gamers are out in force. already 10,000 playstation 4

consoles sold on ebay for this thanksgiving deal price of some $289. and finally "star wars" merchandise very popular. "star wars" luggage, "star wars" posters. i'm told specifically there's a bb-8 doll which i'm sure you already have on order. this is a hot "star wars" item this year. it's selling for about 100 bucks a pop. today is very important for ebay but keep in mind the really important day is, in fact, cyber monday, so this company and this industry clearly still one to watch. stay tuned. guys, back to you. >> i have one of those. >> you have more than one. >> oh, yeah. >> on order. >> i have a trio. because you need three. >> yes, you do. >> josh, thank you. >> thank you, josh. so how is black friday shaping up for brick and mart ymortar retailers, courtney reagan? you're at a mall near chicago. >> happy black friday. this is retail's super bowl. it doesn't get busier than that.

they expect almost 100 million americans to shop online or in stores just today. so even if we're seeing a little bit of the graying of black friday with sales being pulled into thanksgiving evening, during the day, spread over stores and online, black friday is still expected to be among retail's top days this year if not the number one day, and as the day moves forward here at this mall at woodfield near chicago, illinois, we're seeing the crowds continue to swell and even the shoppers that have been here for a number of hours are showing no signs of letting up. they're not ready to go home yet. take a listen. >> i got here at 7:30 and i'm staying through lunch. i'm going to cheesecake factory for a martini. >> now, sales are also ringing up on couches across the country. adobe says online sales are up 15% on this black friday just since midnight year-over-year. that is slightly shy of their

expected 19% growth rate but the average transaction is also up about 5%. now, electronics seem to be winning the day at big box retailers like walmart and target as well as last night, and also on the web. some of the top sellers according to adobe are samsung 4k tvs, ipad air 2, xbox, playstation. but also a number of lego products are among the top sellers and barbie's dream house. can't leave her out. >> courtney reagan, thanks so much. dr. j is still with us out at the mall of america. i'm wondering if you can sort of cap off the retail trade here. are there winners you continue to buy and i'm thinking of a home depot or a lowe's or a nike. are there losers you would buy maybe based on what you have seen? >> i think on any weakness really you take a look at finish line, which has been battered, of course. footlocker. in other words, i'm going after many of the athletic plays, mel.

nike and under armor of course. the only one i'm suspect of is a dick's sporting goods. i think the other guys are more specific to athletic in particular, things you do indoor at courts and things like that, indoor games during this winter rather than some of the outdoor stuff. this is the first snow that they've had in minneapolis, first time they've had to throw down salt this year. so i'm a little worried that some of those other types of retailers that are athletic but are more snow boards and skis, they might not be feeling the love the same way the other guys are. >> it snows in minneapolis? i had no idea. >> even inside. >> that blizzard they get there. the young lady that told courtney she's been there since 7:00, she's going to stay until noon. for a lot of people this is a social event. it's the sporting event. it's the pursuit, the hunt, that they're enjoying on this day. >> the activity on this day measures that subset of people

who do look at it as a competitive thing or just kind of a group experience as opposed to getting something done. it's not about just knocking off your list early. it's about seeing what other people are out there and getting involved. >> because you can get the deals online. i'm going shopping after the show. >> i'm shopping right now. >> but you can't have lunch from cheesecake factory online. >> that's true. >> or a martini. wroo wh >> when they figure that one out, we've got something there. dr. j, thank you. >> thank you, bill. thanks, mel. >> see you, guy. have a good weekend. americans have become addicted to discounts, surprise, surprise. up next, we will look at how these steep sales are affecting the retail industry's bottom line. >> and we want to test your ability to spot the best sale, so what is the better deal, 40% off one item or 20% off plus an extra 25%? the answer is coming up. plus drones are expected to be a hot gift item this holiday

season, but could these gifts be grounded by the faa regulators? that's coming up. we'll show you three of the hot sellers among drones coming up this season. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

for you savvy shoppers out there, we asked you this question before the break. which is the better deal? the 40% off just straight off 40% or 20% off plus an extra 25% off? and let me just say before we show the answer that you had -- you told me a couple hours ago what the answer was. you had it right. >> i did the math, bill. >> please. >> it is the same. it is the exact same price. it's amazing. >> how is that possible, melissa lee? >> the wonders of math. many consumers may not realize as they search for the best deal out there, they're frantically navigating the racks, they don't want to do math, are shoppers addicted to discounts right now? let's ask simeon segal and liz dunn. simeon, i want to start with you first. americans in general don't like to do math particularly when they're in the heat of bargain shopping. why do retailers do this and not

just say straight up it's 40% off or straight up even better yet, this is the price? >> sure. so i was worried you were going to ask me that question. i'm worrying about my own math over here. so confusion right now is probably a great weapon for these retailers to use. if you tell me there's a good deal and i can actually see the price, it makes it easier to compare the price. right now with a phone i'm going to compare every price i can. the more complicated it gets, the more you layer on other discounts, the more i think i'm getting a better deal than i am and that's probably what you want the consumers to be thinking. >> liz, you have to blame the retailers, they brought them on themselves. people are addicted to these discounts, the perceived deals that they can get, and the retailers just have to keep extending this carrot and stick out there because that's when people will buy, right? >> right. it's become a drug. so you need more and more of it to get the same effect. i do think that the promotional tone this year seems a little bit better.

you know, out of the gates it's the same as last year but inventories seem to be in better shape. nonetheless, the consumer wants deals and so you may have to go to those deeper levels of discount as the season wears on to get the needed result of a sale. >> simeon, i was reading an article the other day and it was talking about retailers discounting tactics and strategies. and there was a term called price volatility which i think of in conjunction with stocks and not with the price of a sweater. so in terms of price volatility, what should we expect from here going into christmas at the height? will we see prices fluctuate tremendously? >> it's interesting, there's these new apps that will tell you anything you want on price and one of them actually will tell you how long amazon has been pricing something in a certain area. so you actually can look at a price like a stock chart. so i think that's very apt. when you think about what's going on, the reality is if you've been sitting in front of the computer for the past two weeks, you've gotten 50% off

discounts. the reality is i have sold or i have already bought probably too many gifts for my little kids over here and liam, if you're listening, don't listen. the point is 50% off, 40% off you're seeing that at different times and the more you feel like that's going to go away, the more you're inclined to jump on it now. the products are there, and the reality is if you walk through the mall, there are things that are selling at full price. if you give me a product that a consumer wants, there is a hot ten if you think about the gifts. on the other hand, the products that are not selling, it's a matter of drumming up interest beyond simply getting the right fashion or drumming up consumer interest. that's going to be in this dance between prices today, prices tomorrow, and i think to your question they're going to keep fluctuating. they're going to try to convince you that the price element you need to create an impulse buy at any given point whether it's black friday, in three weeks from now or three weeks behind us. >> you know, liz, i wonder, you mention the discounting tone might be a little bit better for retailers this time around and maybe inventories are in nicer shape. i wonder if there's any

advantage that the domestic retailers have had from the strong dollar? do they have a cushion because they're procuring largely from overseas or is that not enough to kind of move the needle for them? >> yeah, depends on which retailer you're talking about. some certainly have a cushion, but if you're selling to international consumers, it's a big headwind for you and we've seen that with some of the reporting coming out of the third quarter just because, you know, u.s. goods are more expensive for that tourist consumer and so sales are falling for some retailers that sell to them. >> all right. guys, we're going to leave it there. thank you so much. simeon and liz. shoppers out there just bring your calculators. >> as i said, as long as the number here is lower than the number there, you got a bargain. >> coming up next, we'll head live to moscow with the latest on the increasing tensions between russia and turkey and protests still under way in chicago on michigan avenue. plus, the oil pits are

minutes away from closing at the nymex. jackie deangelis will wrap up the day in energy of what has been a very strong week for oil. coming up.

french president francois hollan hollande's meeting with vladimir putin being overshadows with the growing rift with turkey. >> geoff cutmore is there with the latest details.

>> reporter: good to see you, guys. it's disappointing, president hollande came here and met with president putin and the aim was to get further cooperation with the russians to increase the targeting of isis terrorists after that terrible tragedy in paris, of course, and the russians having their own terrible episode back on the 31st of october when that civilian jetliner came down with the loss of more than 200 lives in the middle east. unfortunately, whilst we had some progress it seems in the discussions between the two presidents, the downing of this russian bomber by the turkish air force seems to have, as you say, overshadowed that meeting. now what we have is a tit for tat exchange between the presidents of turkey and russia over why the turkish are not apologizing for shooting down that aircraft and why the russians don't feel that they were given a proper explanation

as to why it was taken out of the air. so we have very undiplomatic language now between these two presiden presidents. president erdogan saying the russians shouldn't play with fire. president putin for his part insisting he still needs an explanation as to why his aircraft was shot out of the sky, and the worrying thing about this now is that the russians have taken anti-aircraft missile batteries to syria. they also have a missile cruiser parked off the syrian coast. it's going to make the skies above syria more dangerous operationally for all those who are trying to target the isis militants. now, this story rolls on. we will wait and watch to see whether there is any escalation here. there has been some talk about the russians of removing visa-free travel from the turks and implementing some economic sanctions. at this point though no

significant decisions have been taken, but there is no meeting of minds still between the turkish or the russian presidents. so this story will rumble on. back to you. >> jeff, thank you. geoff cutmore in moss cue moscow for us. >> joining us, we have retired u.s. army colonel jack jacobs who is joining us this afternoon. good to see you, sir. thank you for joining us. >> good to see you, too. >> the russians have warned and threatened a vast reduction of trade with turkey, but you think it will be short lived, why? >> well, i think they need ep other very badly economically and strategically. turkey gets most of its gas from russia. they've got a lot of investment inside russia, a lot of turkish companies are in russia doing a great deal of work both construction work and trade work. and strategically, you know, the

strait is really important to the russians. they can't get their black sea fleet into the mediterranean and thus into the atlantic unless the turks let them go through the strait even though in theory it's international waters. they have a very close economic relationship and have had for a long time. i can't see this taking -- i can't see this getting resolved over a long period of time. i think it's going to be sooner rather than later. >> so, colonel, is the extrapolation of that that there will not be neany sort of mility action. >> ironically, there may be military action. i just don't think economic action may be long lived, but, yeah, if the russians are moving anti-aircraft missiles into an area near turkey but still in syria, these are long-range weapons. they could easily target turkish aircraft flying in turkish air space, but, boy, this is really -- i can't see them doing that either. however, control of these assets both by the turks and by the

russians at the tactical level down in the field, it's not very good at all. just one little mistake is all it takes. unlike what happened to the russian airplane, that was directed from ankara. they decided they'd had enough of the russians bombing turkimen inside syria. there's liable to be a mistake and there will be a difficult time to pay after that. >> with the stakes that you're itemizing there, we all realize they're pretty high and it's important economically, this relationship between the two. why do they risk it then? we know that the turks were upset with who the russians were going after there along the border. it wasn't isis. it was these anti-assad troops, and by the same token why would the russians do that when they have such an important relationship with turkey at this point? >> well, the russians also have a very strong strategic interest in toppling assad.

putin has made a big bet along with iran to hold onto assad and so that both he and the iranians can have a seat at the table if, as, and when assad goes. he will go, and the russians want to be there. therefore, keeping turkish troops, any allied troops who are after toppling assad, keeping them away is vitally important to putin's strategic interest, and, you know, he suffered a bunch of setbacks tactically and strategically already. crimea is not working out very well. his popularity is down internally. it's a good way to strengthen it. so he's got to demonstrate he's got a strong hand. it's unfortunate that he's doing it by bombing turkimen and irritating the turks because tactically and strategically it makes absolutely no sense for putin to do this. having said all that, he's done a lot of things which didn't

make sense before. it will be interesting to see how this plays out. >> right. colonel, good to see you. jake jacobs jo -- jack jacobs j today. oil prices are settling right now. jackie deangelis is checking in from the nymex. good afternoon. downward pressure on commodities across the board including energy. wti seeing a 3% decline, going to settle under $42. brent under $45. the pressure coming from the strong dollar saying over 100. we did touch it a couple times but now we're proving to break through and hold there. that's negative for the commodity space. while we were all eating turkey, another penny dropped off the average gas price, $2.05. back to you. >> that's what i felt. i thought it was the pumpkin pie. thank you very much, jackie. demonstrators have been marching up chicago's michigan avenue. we go back to reporter adam riess and you were wondering how long this was going to last as

they headed towards a mall as well. what's the latest right now, adam? >> reporter: well, they made their way down to water tower. now they're heading back, but the big issue now is this. they're blocking some of the retail stores. this is tiffany. victoria's secret. so they're blocking the front entrances, not allowing shoppers on this black friday here on the magnificent mile to get in. i want to just show you across the street neiman marcus, they're blocking the shoppers from getting in. now, this could be where the police will step in. the police have pretty much been on the sidelines so far. they made a ten-block walk down to water tower and then they were headed back and the police have really stayed on the sidelines. we've only seen them on bicycles lining the route. they were being pretty lenient. they were letting them walk. there were some speakers at the end but now they're actually calling for these stores to be shut down, to close on this very busy shopping day. back to you.

>> very interesting. reporter adam riess there in chicago. thanks very much. >> time for a krcnbc update. >> here is what's happening also in chicago, authorities say a 27-year-old man has been charged with first-degree murder for killing a 9-year-old boy in that city. corey morgan alleged lie lured the boy into an alley and shot him several times. the motive believe to be gang related and police say others were probably involved in the crime. sony reports all its playstation network services are back online after an outage earlier today. the issues affected a list of services including the playstation store, music, gaming, and other things. first lady michelle obama today welcomed the official white house christmas tree. an 11-foot wide tree from pennsylvania. the lighting of that tree will be next thursday. and an office in japan becoming bear country. look at this. look at that thing. bear broke into a lumber company this morning, climbed shelves and jumped around.

workers caught the grizzly break in on their cell phones. no injuries reported. and that, folks, is the cnbc news update at this hour. >> a bear market. >> he missed the shelf there. he tried to jump from one to the other and he missed it. >> they're a little clumsy. >> hope he's okay. >> ty, thank you. >> thank you. >> see you. >> up to a million drones could be sold this holiday season. >> really? that's a lot. >> will all of those drones fly high or will faa regulations cause many to be grounded? disney just releasing the latest "star wars" trailer, but will the force be strong with "star wars" toy sales this holiday season? that's coming up on "the closing bell."

drones are expected to be one of the hottest gift items this holiday season, but can the faa keep up with regulations when commercial users start flying their new toys? join us is eric chang, the former general manager at dgi drones. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> those regulations are expected in the first half of next year. i'm wondering what you think the impact of that is on sales right now? are people waiting to see what

the regulations are or are they rushing out to get drones now so they can fly them unregulated. >> it's sort of both. i think people are waiting. those folks who are wanting to use drones commercially are absolutely waiting and they want to do the things the right way. there's an existing way to fly commercially but it's unwieldy. we're really waiting for the new dr regulations to drop. most people who are buying dronesbobbyists. they want to fly for fun or to take pictures. it's a different set of rules that apply to hobbyists. >> you brought three drones of different sizes, but how many models are out there right now? >> oh, there are dozens, if not hundreds of models out there, and they really range in size -- everything from something that's literally this small. i mean, this is sold -- it's called the cheerson cx-10. it's less than half an ounce and it's considered to be a drone by the faa. this thing flies and once it leaves the ground, it's in air

space. this copses le this costs less than $10. >> it's a stocking stuffer. >> what's the difference between that and something you buy at a toy store, like a little plane you fly around your house with a remote control? >> yeah. so these actually pretty much are those planes that you're talking about that fly around indoor. they're made for indoor use. something about this size, now we're talking about something about $90, this can be flown outside if there's not that much wind but what i think most people are talking about when they're talking about consumer drones is really something like this. >> there you go. >> yeah. this is a dji phantom three professional. when you go on something like youtube or you look on cnbc and you see drones, you see footage from drones, most of that footage is shot with a drone like this which costs something like $1,000. these are used basically from -- they're used for hobby for fun, but also used in tv and film production. so they're very versatile tools. >> you said there's a different

set of rules for noncommercial users, for hobbyists. what are those rules or just a set of best practices in terms of what kind of range you use, what altitudes and all the rest? >> well, they were best practices until they recently and now we're seeing formalization of these recommendations by the faa. the best place to go is know before you fly.org, a faa website that's in partnership with industry. and these -- it lays out all the rules you have to pay attention to if you're a hobbyist getting one of these in your stocking over the holiday. these would be things like don't fly over 400 feet. don't fly around airports. don't fly in congested areas and interestingly, don't make money from them unless you follow the regulations which aren't out yet. so that's very interesting one. >> you would find all of that at common sense.org i would imagine. >> yeah. >> so you're going to demonstrate one of these drones as we go out here? >> yeah, absolutely. >> are you ready to fly, eric? >> i am ready to fly. so i'm going to fly -- this is

called a blade nano qx. it's very small. weighs about half an ounce and it flies similar to the big ones. it's a common trainer drone people use. so i'll plug it in here. all right. here we go. spin it up. there it is. so again, this is a toy. what's great about this, this has a camera and a video transmitter on the front. if i would put on googles, i could see what this drone sees in real time and it's called fpv for first person views. >> how much is it? >> it's $150, right? >> this is $150. the one without a camera is $90 and it's ready to fly. and this one i think is going to be really popular for the holidays. >> if my wife is watching -- >> i want one of those, too. >> here i'm hoping my kids aren't watching right now. >> that's the one i want right there. eric chang, good to see you. thank you for joining us. >> thank you so much.

>> now i want one. i didn't want one -- >> i totally want one. >> that looked like fun. >> all over it. >> when you think black friday you probably think of masses of people at the mall. >> but it is also a huge day for auto sales. we'll head live to a dealer to find out which automakers are cashing in on black friday. stay tuned.

black friday is not just for apparel and toy retailers. >> phil lebeau is at a car retailer near chicago. hi, phil. >> hi, melissa. at this chevy dealership in lyle, illinois, we've seen a steady stream of customers coming in since they opened the doors at 9:00. this is what the automakers have been targeting for several weeks. >> and this year look what he put in our driveway. >> santa can do that? >> sure can, honey. >> the lexus december to remember sales event is here. >> reporter: the automakers overall are expecting big business as part of its black friday promotions and holiday promotions. whatever name you want to apply to them. on average the incentives are up basically about $100.

they're offsetting that by bringing in higher prices for the vehicles they're selling but not all of the promotions appear to be as effective as others. ford announcing within the last hour that it's going to be ending its friends and neighbors program, ending it early. it was supposed to go into january, until january 4th. basically dealers are saying it's had mixed results. that it hasn't been as effective as hoped for. so they're going to roll out a new holiday incentive program starting on december 1st. at this chevy dealership we've talked with a couple customers and they all said the same thing. this is a day to take advantage of not going to work and, instead, look for a new car or truck. >> we were willing to wait and see what kind of prices and what kind of deals would be out there on black friday. >> three-day weekend, it's the end of the month so they want to sell cars near the end of the month. it's a good time to buy cars. >> reporter: and it's been a good time to sell cars this year. look at the increase in the sales rate. 16.6 million was the sales pace in the first quarter. it's picked up steam in the second and the third quarter

and, guys, right now the industry is on pace to sell 18.2 to 18.3 million vehicles as a sales pace for the fourth quarter. even though we haven't seen that reflected in shares of the automakers going higher, this is one of those days that they target all year long. it truly has become perhaps the third or fourth most important sales weekend for the auto industry in any year. >> fascinating. phil, thanks very much. see you later. mike santoli, how do we reconcile this with what we know about the consumer out there. the luxury car i could see this would be a good time of year for them but i'm hearing all automakers. >> price consciousness fits into how the automakers have been approaching this whole psych klg. what's interesting to me about the idea of car dealers making black friday an occasion for them is they're already in tremendous deal making mode. it's not as if they're just now marking them down. maybe they'll have slightly better incentives. there's no new models coming out for holiday. this is the model year that's

been there for a while. >> there are rising rates though. >> i think people might move off the dime for that reason. i do think it makes sense because people are off work as you said. otherwise though, i don't know that it's necessarily something that people are thinking about as gifts anyway. >> right, right. >> it's a big gift. the "star wars" film expected to rule the box office in a few weeks, but "star wars" merchandise may already be dominating the holiday season. that's next. also if "star wars" is not exactly your thing, do not worry. we'll unveil the rod report's top three ultimate luxury holiday gifts. trust us, these are ultra luxury gifts. that's coming up on "the closing bell." year after year. then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. yeah... surprise... your insurance company tells you to pay up again. why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it? if you have liberty mutual deductible fund™, you could pay no deductible at all.

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so if you have kids or you know somebody who is a kid at heart, there's a good chance you'll be shopping for "star wars" toys this holiday season. >> jane wells is at a toys r california where the force is very strong with "star wars" merchandise. jane? >> strong toy sales this season there may be. thank you, yoda. actually what we're actually hearing is so far this morning on twitter, ebay is trending higher than amazon or walmart,

and, in fact, at this toys "r" us we've been told ebay regulars have been snatching up stuff to possibly sell online. but demand started a long time ago in a toy manufacturing facility in a country far, far away. black friday "star wars" sales have been strong since september when disney launched toys on force friday. hasbro has even said it's been having a hard time keeping some things in stock. >> the little six-inch figures are very popular. light sabres. this year they came out with you build your own liner. that's very popular. even the r2-d2 we're seeing them fly off the sales. >> merchandise sales could do better than movie sales. perhaps $5 million. and, of course, disney which has a licensing fee by some estimates of 20%, it's been

licensing this whole thing out to an empire of companies, including one i found interesting called her universe. they make fashionable "star wars" clothes for women. had a big fashion show at com comic-c comic-con. yours truly got a makeover. that light saber skirt, should i try to buy it. bill and meplissa, buy or buy not, there is no try. >> i don't know where to go with that one. but disney has been tempering expectations for the movie. they probably don't have to do that for the merchandise, right? >> look, people are buying the merchandise before the movie. three generations of fans, me, my kids, people who have grand kids who are now getting into it. it's going to sell itself. even if the movie bombs and i cannot imagine it being a bomb. it may not meet expectations. it's going to sell. >> what's the favorite toy you've seen? >> light saber. that's my vote. >> hand me the stormtrooper.

>> very quickly. jo besides this one my favorite toy is not a "star wars" toy. dino doo. jellybean poo from dinosaurs, i think that sends the wrong message to kids. >> that's perfect. that's jane wells. young at heart. thank you. >> all right. from sabres to luxury gifts. hot cars and jewelry apparently didn't make the cut in this year's gift guide. we'll reveal the top three ultra luxury gifts coming up.

the lifestyle magazine rob report is out with its annual list of the top luxury gifts for the holiday season. the magazine lists 31 such gifts for the high-income shopper. joining us right now with three examples david arnold is senior vice president and publishing director with said rob report. good to see you. it's not just a gift, it's an experience in some cases. >> we've been doing this for many, many years. increasingly what we're finding is people aren't just buying items, they're interested in buying an soornser experience that goes with it. it's a wonderful item, unique, one of a kind, but an experience wrapped around it makes it more compelling. >> first gift all we have to say is one word, chanel. >> that is actually true. this fragrance was launched in 1921, one of the most popular in the world. they have a special limited edition this year. only a couple available.

they're producing 50. it's $15,000. comes in a small 30 ounce crystal custom crystal bottle, hand delivered with a coffee table book that comes with it. it's definitely should be under your tree i think. >> i think it should be under mine. >> i think he was looking at you. >> in terms of the experiences though, one really stood out and that was $40,000 for a wardrobe and a trip to italy. >> yeah. so third generation john luca who is the current president whose grandfather started the company in naples and i'll give you the complete ensemble because it's fairly ex sen tiff two suits, sport coat and trousers, formal ensemble, a top coat, shirts and neckties and a private wardrobe consultation in naples. then they'll whisk you over to capri where they opened a jewel of a store. you can bring a friend and have

a wonderful experience. >> it includes the travel to and for. >> it includes everything. >> it's only one offering. if you call they might -- >> they can fit you in otherwise. that is a good deal there. and the third one, you were pointing at me for some reason on this one, but this one involves drinking wine. >> it does. so they have been making wine since the 1300s, one of the oldest wineries in the world. it's a visit to three separate wineries, an opportunity for your own barrel, which is -- >> you get your own barrel. >> you get your own barrel. it's 225 liters. you can pick the barrel. you can work with the winemaker. you can work on a custom blend. in addition you get every vintage from 1978 to 2013. dinners created by michelin chefs. it's an extraordinary experience. >> these are big ticket items but they don't seem when you break it down, it doesn't seem that expensive for what you are getting. >> that's absolutely true.

nas this issue was finished, they started compiling next year's gift. we've been doing it for 32 years. so they've got a lot of experience at this. they get very excited about the opportunities and companies are calling all the time because they want to build these wonderful experiences about these one of a kind and unique items. >> i was wondering, once it appears on your list, is it there for all of a sudden to become something that gets more covet or do people say that's just a package deal? >> it's more coveted. these are not off the shelf packages. if you call up on a regular basis, you would not be able to get this. through the relationships we have with all of these companies that we've built over 40 years, they're willing to give us these wonderful and exceptional experiences knowing they're going to get sold which is a big incentive. >> which one are you getting, david? >> i'm going to get all three actually. i've had a good year. >> good for you. >> well done. david arnold of "the robb report." thank you for joining us. let's talk after the show. >> absolutely. >> we'll do that. if you're just joining us and you want to know how the market

is doing today, you're too late. it's closed. it closed an hour ago. so that's it for "the closing bell." thank you for joining us. >> exactly. but don't go anywhere because jay leno's garage right here on cnbc begins right now. >> wait, go up! [screams] hi, i'm jay leno. >> all: hi, jay! >> hi, everybody. how you doing? and this is a show about cars... it's fun to drive cars that are really different. i never knew the beach could be so much fun! and motorcycles... [revs engine] >> all: whoo! >> and well, anything that rolls.... like driving a two-story building. [brakes screech] oh, my god! strong as an ox! explodes... i love the smell of napalm in the morning. >> yeah! >> or makes noise. >> you ever run a drag strip? >> no, i haven't. [engines roar] this is "jay leno's garage." >> start your engine. [engine purrs] [tires squeal] [police siren wails] >> get out of the car, sir!