live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky has the day off. it wasn't long for her, long for us. productivity seems a little lower than normal at the office this morning, you have to blame online sales. unlike past years, it seems as though americans didn't wait for cyber monday to buy online. the national retail federation reporting that 151 million

people shopped over the holiday weekend. almost equal numbers visited physical stores and online outlets. we'll have much more with our veteran industry analyst dana telsey will join us in 20 minutes. before we do that, let's take a quick check on the markets. u.s. equities at this hour, dow opening up 27.5% higher. nasdaq up 6.5% higher. s&p 500 at 1 point. let's tell you about global news this morning. world leaders arriving at a u.n. sponsored summit on the outskirts of paris today. amid heavy security. the meeting will focus on climate change. new this morning, the u.s. embassy in afghanistan putting u.s. citizens in cab bull on high alert. officials warning that the embassy has received credible reports of an imminent attack in the next 48 hours. americans in kabul are being urged to exercise extreme caution in moving around the city following the paris attacks earlier this month. the u.s. state department

issuing a travel warning advising americans not to travel to afghanistan. >> no plans for that any time soon. >> no plans. >> closer to home, an fbi warning prompting officials to cancel classes and all activities at the university of chicago at that school's hyde park campus today. the decision comes after someone posted an online threat warning of gun violence at the campus quad area and they even gave a time, 10:00 a.m. the school is asking those on campus to remain indoors as much as possible, including students in college housing. here are the big market stories we're watching. the imf is expected to announce today that it will include the chinese yuan in the reserve currency basket. eunice yoon will join us in beijing on what this means in a couple of minutes. in corporate news, shares of bhp

billitin. >> is it valet. >> not like veil resorts. >> we need charissa cabrera. >> yeah, there's a gap between us. a little space. >> it would have helped last week if there had been a little bit more space. >> oh, you think that you got -- >> i do think you gave it to me. >> hold on. so everybody's aware of what's -- so i got sick about a week and a half ago. >> no one's ever gone home. >> i want you to know, i wanted today stay. i wanted to stay. i wanted to stay. remember everyone thought my throat was giving out on me. this was a week and a half ago. >> this is hard. >> i still have a little bit of a residual cough. >> this was last wednesday. >> it was not, it was a week ago. think about it, i've been gone for a week. i was on vacation, unfortunately sick. >> you know the jobs report is this friday. >> i heard. >> how weird is that? don't you remember last week we were reporting on the great number. >> yeah. >> that's been a month already? >> that's been a month. >> so you think you got the flu

from me? >> i don't think so. >> i don't know. the cough syrup that i ended up taking. >> you're happy. >> this is cnbc, right? >> yeah. >> that stuff is dangerous. >> well, i'm on robitussin. >> you'll read anything in the telephone. >> anything you tell me to read. i could go in there and change things. i might do that. >> fun three hours. >> yeah, that's dangerous. anyway, vale, i said we need charissa cabrera, she has all these pronunciations down, god knows where she is. she's always ready to go. >> on a plane somewhere. >> and this drop comes after brazil announced it plans to sue the company for 5.2 billion in damages caused after a dam burst. anheuser-busch plans to sell the grolsch and peroni brands. miller coors going to keep the rights to both of those brands.

that was a week ago -- two weeks ago and you're still feeling the effects. >> i'm still feeling the effects. >> i think it's the flu. can't you work through a cold? >> i think so. >> flu you don't necessarily have to have a fever that comes every year. it's different. it mutates. neither one of us got the flu shot. >> we can still do it. >> you've already had it. are you going to get one? >> i think i'm going to get one. >> go ahead. >> a new service. we could do it on the air, like uber. they come here, do it on the app. >> one of those uber drivers to come and give me a flu shot. >> we'll do it in the chairs at 6:30. we could honestly do it. >> he has equipment that goes into my bodily fluids. >> yes, he does. >> some guy. >>? >> some guy that you'll call. >> i don't think we should do it while we're sick. >> you're going to open up your vessel? >> yeah, that's my plan. >> i'll watch. >> >> okay. not touching me. not going to touch the guy. >> tell you about washington news today.

lawmakers will return to capitol hill. this there are less than two weeks left to pass the deadline of a $1.1 trillion spending bill. we're faced with a government shutdown. the currency stopgap measure expires december 11th. the fed will hold a key meeting as well. interest rates aren't on the agenda. instead, the central bank's board will curb its lending powers. this is mandated by the dodd frank law. the new rule would force any future lending problems. it will not be tail lord to individual firms. we'll see how that works out. >> check on the markets around the world. europe was pretty good. we're doing all right. up 44 points. that's a good start for this week. for what will be the first week of december and that big jobs report on friday. here's what i was talking about in europe across the board. pretty good gains except for the ftse but almost 1% in germany.

in france up half a percent and then spain up almost a percent. i saw asia as a rough session last week in shanghai but today is not extending those losses. up a quarter of a percent. article written at saudi. they're not being totally forthcoming. oil has turned around. down earlier. ten year i saw to 26 or so on the ten year. i also was looking at the dollar which i think we saw 1.05 out there. still is 1.05 and 3/4. >> people think it has to be bad to derail the fed's plans. there is gold which is trading near multi-year lows at 1055. it is the last trading day of

the month because there's only 30 days in november i'm told. investors looking for a week of big numbers and fed appearances including two by janet yellen. yeah, two. twofer from janet. we'll get an ecb rate decision. expected to expand its easing program. oil on the agenda. opec meeting in vienna on friday. then on the data front, auto sales, productivity we round out the week with the big jobs report. let's bring in ed campbell, principal of qma, jerry webb, start with you the on the market in general. we have a big, fat dirt sandwich this year for -- is it dirt sandwich? is that the expression? >> it sounds all right. >> in other words, not much for investors to really be excited about. we have -- you know, we didn't stay down at 10% or 12%. we didn't stay down at the lows but we're flat. >> we've rebounded.

>> on a total return basis we're at about 3 poi.5%. pretty tepid. >> you expect the same next year? >> i expect another flattish year for the s&p 500. i think one of the things that is weighing on returns this year is definitely earnings. we're likely to come in at about 0 for calendar year 2015 and the big thing that took a bite out of earnings this year was oil and the come to lar. i don't think they're going do as much damage this year because you would need to see a bit of earnings. positive earnings but still pretty tepid. >> so you'd go abroad but not emerging? you'd go developed markets abroad? >> yeah, we like europe and japan for a number of reasons if we focus on europe for a second, earnings are still cyclically depressed compared to the united states where they're above trend and margins are high. you've got a central bank that's going to be easing while the fed

is likely to be hiking. >> that's what you're really talking about, isn't it? >> yeah. >> we are always told, jerry, that we've got the best house in a bad neighborhood in this country right now, right? with the economy. so why not -- if that's the case, why not buy stocks here? you know why? because the interest rate, you're banking on easy money. we've got the best economy. why not invest here? >> it's not just easy money. it's also earnings growth. >> all right. >> it's strong in japan right now. japan is the only place where you -- in the world where you see strong earnings growth despite the fact that you're not seeing strong economic growth. >> but the history is when the fed eases at a gradual pace, which every indication is that's what they intend to do, and why wouldn't they -- >> who? >> eases it -- sorry, tightens it. it's monday morning, joe. sitting in the chair. i'm worried about my alma mater. you tell me ufc -- if they

tighten at a gradual pace as we think they do, the stock market will do fine. the problem with ed's point is that's pressie much where consensus is now. i don't disagree with him substantively. the problem is europe is good, e.m. isn't doing much. the prob blemg with that position is that's consensus. i was at a conference in london, that's consensus. where are the surprises going to come from? china has the ability to do monetary and fiscal stimulus that nobody else in the world does. don't expect a lot but, boy, that would be the positive surprise. u.s., the head winds from oil, they fade. you're not going to see another 30% rally in the dollar. so u.s. probably does a little better than we're expecting right now. the europe story, i've been behind it. i love it. i think it's great. boy, i'll tell you it hasn't done as much this year as it should be. >> we'll see. >> someone explain to me, sorkin you can explain this to me, too.

you're not likely to see the dollar go up as much or oil fall as much as it has in the last year but if it just stays -- if both of those things stay where they are in the doldrums in depression level, you know, just because the comparisons aren't getting worse, the earnings for the oil group are going to be just as bad if oil stays at 40. they'll be just as bad as they were for the past year. >> but they won't go down. >> they'll still be sharply depressed. >> that's 5%. >> just because it doesn't go down further then you feel like you're not in pain? >> listen, the oil sector i think is going to be a long time before you see a major recovery. that's what opec is betting on this week and why they're going to go for the market share story. the dollar's a different story. there the change is what drives the change in earnings. so, yeah, i think that we've come to a level here where we won't see the rate of change -- >> the change in earnings is less but the same absolute level that you're getting is the same. >> now you have the u.s.

consumer, how many million more jobs? we saw earnings starting to improve. we have seen the housing sector strengthening in the u.s. >> i'm going to look at what andrew wants to talk about. >> divergent path set for fed and ecb. >> that's true. we know that. where? >> right there. read the newspaper. where are you? what paper are you looking at? >> on the right. this is considered the lead right here. this is the lead. and what they're talking about is what we were just talking about, the likely path of interest rates in two regions add to currency market turbulence. >> this is not a lead. >> 12% increase in the value of the dollar against the euro since the start of the year. >> this year. >> this year. but the question that this poses is whether that turbulence will actually make miss yellen get a little anxious. >> i think we'll see turbulence. the history is when there's divergence, the easing country's currency tends to do a little better one year out because they start to get some traction, they

start to see somewhat better performance in the asset market. >> you don't think the fed looks at what's happening in our roche and says, you know what, we've got to slow down? >> i don't think they're looking -- try to balance policy with europe. i think they're concerned, the concern of the fed isn't about the traditionalish use of central banks. concern with the fed is have we messed up something royally? i've listened to joe kernen. joe kernen is telling me we're messing something up with these extraordinarily easy rates. what if he's right? we better start normalizing things even if there's some risk in doing that. >> what we're likely to see on december 16th is going to be an important day in fed history. we'll see the fed after seven years of a zero interest rate policy finally exit. i think it's an appropriate thing. it's time to take the training wheels off of zero interest rates because the economy can handle it. >> that is like a bolo.

is that new is that new? >> the tie. >> that is so thin that that is like a -- >> boy band. it's like -- >> remember the boy band guys? >> i think it's -- i think it's very cool. i just told my wife to take back a tie narrow like that. i said i can't wear it. i'm not as young. >> are you telling me i can't pull it off. i'm pulling it off. i'm pulling it off right now. >> he's half my age. >> pulled it off in the '90s. what do you think? he's half my age. >> is that a tie? >> you think it's a string. >> what are those things called. >> kids wear a scarf. have you seen men wearing these? they wear a scarf with a blazer. >> well, or very retro, right? >> show me, that's why. they didn't even show me. who makes that thing? >> your friends. >> huh? >> your friends the fancy pants at zenia make it. >> no way. >> bill clinton. >> zenia, they have that sample

sale. >> z zenia. >> obviously it's cheaper. there's no fricken fabric. that is like a bolo. all right. do you see how -- >> i see what's going on here. >> yes. you're wearing a tie from the 1980s. i see. it's okay. >> i have a birthday present from my daughter. >> these don't change. >> beautiful ties. >> they don't go with every -- >> with the fashion. >> they don't work with obsolescence. >> we have to get to china but eunice yoon is waiting for us. what's on your tie? >> almost like a surfer with surf boards. cool stuff. >> as i say, my daughter, who sets the fashion tone, bought this for my birthday so i know it's cool. has to be cool. >> gentlemen, thank you. we have to get over to china. sorry to diverge with the tie talk. i'm not apologizing. i'm not apologizing for everything. the imf is expected to announce

that it will include the chinese yuan in the currency baskets. eunice yoon joins us live with a look at why this is so important. good morning, eunice. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. i'm not going to apologize for finally breaking up the conversation and bringing it over to china, but the inclusion of the chinese yuan into the imf's basket of reserve currencies is seen as a badge of honor as well as a milestone for beijing. it is an indication that the chinese currency has arrived. it's significant for the imf which has been criticized for not being inclusive enough of the emerging world. the big question is what kind of impact this is going to have on the global markets, in particular on the chinese yuan as well as on chinese stocks and bonds. because in theory the inclusion should create a lift in demand of chinese yuan denominated assets. however, in practice the chinese government restricts foreign access to the markets here. it also controls capital flows.

in fact, there are even concerns now the chinese yuan could actually depreciate after the inclusion just because the economy here is slowing down and also what you guys were talking about, it looks as though u.s. interest rates are going to rise. that's on the short term. in the long term a lot of people here still believe this is a significant step for china's longer term goals to make the yuan a global reserve currency like the u.s. dollar and they also though say that the success of china carrying that out is going to depend on whether or not it's going to make good on its promises to open up the markets here, create more transparency and also open up the entire financial industry. guys? >> okay. great. eunice, thank you for that. appreciate it very much. hope to see you soon. coming up when we return, forget two day delivery guaranteed, amazon now showing off its drone plans and the video you need to see to believe it. first as we head to a break though, here's a look back at

this date in history. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.

that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. welcome back to "squawk box." amazon showing off an updated

look of its drone program. i was skeptical back then, two years ago. in a video posted to youtube the amazon prime air drone shown taking off. dodging potential obstacles on the air and ground for a range of 15 miles. amazon says it will launch prime air once it has regulatory support from the faa. we will see when and if that happens. >> i hope it dodges obstacles like people. stories about a poor little boy that got hit by a drone in his eye or something. that's what we -- put an eye out with one of these. we have to make sure that this is -- you know, one is too many for somebody that that happens to, right? if it's your kid. >> if you think of having like dozens or hundreds of those things in the air all the time. >> dodging obstacles. i am an obstacle. it has to dodge human beings because those things are -- >> right. >> and dodging each other. otherwise they're going to start

crashing in the air. >> explode, yeah, it will be crazy. it will be like a science fiction movie. >> i don't know if it's going to happen. i don't know if they're going to allow for it to happen. >> you're a futurist, too. you don't say that. >> i like technology. >> zero jobs left for robots. you're worried about the drones? >> little worried about the drones. >> no max hedron can do what we donchts are you positive? >> sure. >> cyber shoppers getting the gifts where they needed to go was the next big challenge. morgan brennan is at fedex. everything that moves. there's a pattern except for the eggs. fedex sorting facility in the bronx is one of the busiest shipping days of the year. it's that time, isn't it. >> reporter: it is time. something like that makes sense in rural areas where you're not seeing trucks go out and do deliveries. take a look at this.

this is the calm before the storm. in a short while this fedex sorting facility in the bronx is going to begin sorting tens of thousands of packages for the day. this is a scene that will play out at 750 fedex locations across the country for cyber monday. today is the first of three anticipated peak days for the company during which fedex expects to handle more than twice as many packages as a regular day. overall it plans to deliver 317 million shipments between thanksgiving and christmas eve. that would be up 12% versus last year with an extra shopping day thrown in and it isn't alone here. rival ups forecasts over 630 million packages. that's 10% more than last year between black friday and new year's eve. a similar story at the u.s. postal service which expects a 10.5% increase in volumes. dhl express predicts a 40% jump in incoming shipments versus last quarter. we're seeing all of this despite

sluggish data. slowing port activity. softer than expected truck tonnage. declining rail rode intermodal container volumes. those metrics have been signaling high volumes and the potential for a less robust than expected holiday season. even if we were to see that, e. commerce continues to grow gangbusters. something we're seeing with the national retail federation estimating people shopped online for the thanksgiving black friday weekend than turned up in stores. continue to see that on cyber monday, that should benefit fedex and some of these other parcel carriers. guys, back to you. >> thank you, but before you go, where are all the people? usually there's a lot of hustle and bustle around the trucks. you would think fed ex is -- >> already happened. >> i'll tell you, we'll be -- >> no, robots. >> so nighttime tends to be the witching hour at fedex and other parcel carrier facilities. we're going to be coming back on your show a little bit later today.

you should probably be seeing that hustle and bustle. literally the next couple of moments. >> nothing happens overnight? >> oh, no, overnight tends to be the busy, busy time. right now we're in a little bit of a lull right now. it's about to pick up again. >> okay. our next guest -- >> thank you for that, morgan. our next guest spent time in the hottest shopping malls. joining us is dana telsey. sounds like you could have been home though just clicking away. >> you have to do both. people are using their phones when they're in the stores clicking to make that purchase. >> did you see people sitting there look ago the the product going i can see it for cheaper here, i'm going to click? >> you see the price checking happening. i saw it in macy's on thursday night an hour after macy's opened. >> you were actually there? you didn't have your people there? >> no, i go. i have to be able to feel what's happening. >> you can't be everywhere. you have people. >> of course, we had 40 people

all around the country, checked out hundreds of stores, hundreds of malls. happens every single year. frankly, it is the most exciting time of the year. >> it is? >> yes. >> the dana telsey headline as opposed to the national federation of retailers. >> perfectly normal. black friday overall sales were pulled earlier given that the promotions started earlier. it's still the ceremonial kickoff date. perfectly average. nothing to make the estimated holiday sales increase different than what it was before the thanksgiving. >> estimated holiday season is going to be a lesser holiday season than last year? >> no, last year was 4 point be point 1%. this year will be around 3.5%. you have durables taking share. >> what about the mix though, the mix of foot traffic as you were running around the shopping malls versus online? everyone said last week everyone sat home and shopped. >> it was less than last year. you didn't see the big surges of traffic that you had seen in the past. you're not seeing retailers open their stores earlier than 6:00

p.m. on thanksgiving day. there's a stopgap in terms of when the store is it going to open and when consumers will come. >> what does that say in the traffic? they're spending an inordinate amount of money on actual space in shopping malls in new york city, nordstroms is opening. people are doing this. >> right. >> the question is if you think in the future everybody is going to do it at home, whether they're wasting money and this whole multi-channel effort that terry lundgren is talking about. maybe five, ten years from now we won't be walking in the store, at least in the same numbers that we did before. >> when you think of catalog sales, when you think of internet sales, internet sales today are still less than 10% of overall retail sales. it's been 15 years since the internet was really created. not saying it's not growing. it's growing faster than regular retail. bricks and mortar is still the bulk of it. yes, being able to combine what you buy in the store, what you buy on your phones, that's what's integrating.

retailers need their online channels to be just as efficient as their store channels and they're investing in it. >> let's go winners and losers. highlights. >> highlights overall we saw everything active. nike, not really big deals in nike. people are buying digital 23i9ness trackers, buying underarmor, nike. best buy was packed this holiday season. victoria secret, bath and body works very busy this holiday season. the surprise was the deals that the teen retailers, hollister and american siegel awe saw traffic. >> okay. down side. who's the loser? >> gap had big promotions and didn't have the big traffic to accommodate the big promotions. target seemed busier than walmart. the chicos and ann taylor fell slow. >> one company where you said, wow, i'm actually a little bit shocked that there are so many people in here? >> hollister. abercrombie and hollister.

>> surprise on the down side, someone you expected would have mass sieve traffic and was empty? >> you would have thought walmart was better. >> because. >> because such great deals they hyon line didn't translate in the store. >> and therefore. >> slower. just feels slower. >> you would do what with the stock? >> overall, hold the stock long term. probably not going to be such a great holiday season. >> dana, thank you. >> thank you very much. >> appreciate it. coming up. then there was one. just one undefeated team in the nfl after the broncos beat the patriots in overtime on sunday night football. plus, the end of an era. kobe bryant announces he's ready to hang up his jersey after 20 year career with the lakers. top story. plus a lot more. sports news. as we head to break here's a look at last week's winners and losers. ♪ ♪ this holiday season, get ready for mystery.

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♪ ♪ all right. we are here in the chairs. trying to think of how many hours i logged on the big screen. here we're going to go over some of it. first, here's some news. kobe bryant announcing this season will be his last. the nba star spent 20 years with the l.a. lakers. the announcement coming out to

fans handed out to fans. he spent 20 seasons with one team. he's been struggling this year. it's been the worst of his career. so could be a while before i have time for nba. we're in mid season with the nfl and college football. where were you thursday, friday, santa anita were you in the country? >> i was not in the country. >> you have an excuse -- >> i was sick and drinking margaritas. >> you haven't seen it -- i'll talk mostly to viewers. >> talk to the viewers. >> i've got an app here that will remind me of things that i saw and i'm just going to go over them. number one, we'll start with last thursday. cramer and philly. detroit beat philly, 45-14. the second time philly has just -- it's just awful. tony romo is hurt again. hairline fracture. carolina stayed unbeaten beating the cowboys.

pretty good game on thursday but they looked really good. cam newton looked great. do we have the beckham zmach because yesterday this guy, regardless of what you think of the giants and the giants lost to washington, but i saw the first catch. watch this one, andrew. one hand again. wow! we should show that again. that rivals the first catch that he did against i think it was dallas last year. it was a losing effort but this is -- there is nobody in the history of the nfl that's been able to do things like this. that was one arm that was out. got it. >> that's awesome. >> somehow pulled it in. didn't hit the ground. rolled over. caught it. just unbelievable. jets ended up looking pretty good. the bengals bounce back. i don't follow the bengals. >> anymore? you can't bring yourself to? >> they bounced back. thy tyler eifert has more catches. college quickly. huge notre dame/stanford.

the egg heads versus the egg heads sort of. stanford has come around. now in the very -- they had 40 seconds to get all the way down the field. >> right. >> that's all stanford had left to kick a field goal to win that game. >> they did. >> it's all messed up who's going to be in the playoffs. ohio state looked really, really good, kicked michigan's tuckus. >> yeah. >> now depending what happens between iowa and michigan state. iowa, clemson. >> yeah. >> i wish oklahoma would be there. oklahoma killed oklahoma state which is good. but all of this is it going to be happening in the next couple of weeks. i saw all of these games, by the way, out of the corner of my eye cooking turkey. >> i missed all of this. >> did you have any turkey. >> we had turkey in mexico. >> turkey enchiladas. >> turkey gumbo? turkey tofu. >> no. it was turkey straight up. straight up turkey. we did the whole thing. >> down there? >> yeah. we had pumpkin pie, all sorts of stuff. >> well, you had 16 people

slaving to get all this finished for you, right? did you have the staff going again? >> no. no. we were at a hotel. great team of people. >> you didn't go to the -- usually you have the -- >> no, we went to a different place this year. yeah. it was a good place. >> big staff. so i did a big sports wrap. you're doing adele? >> yeah. >> you don't care what people think of you? >> i have no shame because there's a lot of people who like adele. >> this is like jack klugman and tony randall. >> adele sold 3 million copies in the u.s. i know you're on apple music. if you went on apple music you couldn't get her if you wanted to get her. you could get this song i believe. >> look at a normal guy out here. >> what is this? what is this? will one of you join me. >> crazy. adele. >> what? >> this is a huge piece of the pop culture. >> adele. i talk about odell. you're talking about adele. >> i'm talking about adele.

>> did you mess understand me when i seaid odell? you said adele. >> this is a big story in the music world because this one artist is no longer -- >> she's really good. you have taylor swift. >> she's done pretty amazing. >> you're up there with her? >> while we're in what you would consider sort of superfluous territory, should we talk about mary kate olsen? this is a pseudo business story. sarkozy who's been on this show. >> half brother of niklas sarkozy of the former president of france marrying mary kate olsen over the weekend caught -- not caught but, rather, covered. >> they've been dating for at least five years. >> page zbliks three, four, five

years. >> like a true french wedding. there were cigarettes everywhere. >> this is something for you. "full house" was your era. >> "full house" was my era. >> that's all i know about those two twins, they were really small. >> yes. >> i haven't moved beyond to where they've become adults. >> they're adults and they are entrepreneurs. >> billionaires? >> billionaire entrepreneurs. they have clothing lines. all sorts of different products. huge business. both of them business entrepreneurs. >> i wonder why when you thought i was going to talk about odell because you misunderstood. >> i thought you were talking about the artist and then started talking about football and how many innings are in football? >> tony randall, what was his name felix unger. >> we'll get the cigars now the a bit and play a little cold play on the way out. coming up, cyber monday. >> maybe. >> we're getting macrame and jean shorts. it is webb's time to shine or is

it? we'll get an update from gerry storch, the parent company of sax and lord and taylor's. we'll have that when we return in just a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.

that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv.

adobe predicting $2.9 billion in sales. that's up 12% from last year's cyber monday. more than 20% of the sales are expected to be made on mobile devices. our next guest runs the parent company of lord and taylor and saks fifth avenue. they kicked off their sales well before black friday. gerry storch joins us.

good morning, gerry. >> good morning. >> walk through what you saw happen over the weekend and then we'll get to what's going to happen today. >> very interesting. what we're seeing is that black friday is becoming more cyber. meanwhile, cyber monday is becoming more physical. let's look at what happened this weekend. it was actually a pretty good weekend for retail. sales in bricks and mortar sales are 75% of total. that was flattish to down 1 or 2%. meanwhile, the sales on the internet were about 25% total of the weekend. that was probably up double digits. when you put it altogether, retail up 3 or 5% over the weekend. interestingly enough, the increase we saw in the internet sales, the bulk of that occurred in the internet arms of the bricks and mortar retailers. so it's showing how this all channel model is evolving. >> let's talk about that omni channel model which is to say do you see a time where you charted out the online traffic and foot traffic actually merge or cross,

where the online traffic is actually bigger than the foot traffic in the omni channel sort of model that you're talking about? >> well, traffic for sure. i don't know about sales. i'm surprised that everybody wasn't online this weekend. what the heck? it's a real easy matter to go online versus driving to the store. having said that, sales at bricks and mortar stores have within t been the same. there's some perception it's declining. look at the data. there isn't much of a change. it's pretty much the same. what's been happening is the growth has been occurring online. as we look at cyber monday, most retailers, including us at sacks off fifth and we ran ads saying come to our stores and get cyber monday. go online. this is what i mean about the convergence taking place. by the way, the winning model is one that's more complicated. go to the store and get it or have it shipped to your home. the model is an integrated

model. you might buy online or pick it up in the store. buy online and it might be shipped from the store to the house. >> or fly it by drone if you saw that amazon video we showed earlier. your sense in terms of product mix, what's selling and what's not selling? there's been a real concern over women's fashion in particular that perhaps maybe there just hasn't been enough innovation or new fashion to get people in the store this season. >> well, that's understandable. i think we have to be careful not to look at short-term blips and read long-term trends into them. there is no doubt and i'm not one that uses weather as an excuse. this has been the warmest fall on record. as you know in new york it was in the 60s on black friday. i don't ever remember it being that warm. certain categories of women's appar apparel, coats, winter accessories, of course they haven't been selling. it's going to get cold. winter is coming. we did see them start to sell. >> winter is coming.

good "game of thrones" we've got it. >> hudson bay will try to buy macy's in 2016. "fortune" magazine. >> i saw that. >> what are the chances of that? is it above zero? >> look, i won't comment on that. we have an innovative and different business model. not only do we run great retailers but we focus on the value in the real estate underlying those stores and make sure we capture that. we're very inquisitive. >> macy's is a $13 billion company. you're a $3 billion company. >> i won't comment on that -- >> man bites dog. "fortune" likes to write crazy stuff. >> we bought saks fifth avenue last year last year. we bought calfa two years ago we bought saks fifth avenue. >> all right. doesn't mean you can buy macy's though, does it? you're going to do it. >> could you do it? >> we won't comment? >> 13 billion?

>> all i'll say is we believe that retailers need to consolidate -- need to consolidate this environment because it is very expensive to do both, which you have to do, both being run great physical stores with great service. we're spending $250 million just in the new york flag ship store. >> we're going to take that as a -- >> buying tesla, too. >> almost a yes. >> we saw that on apple. >> thanks, gerry. >> come back if you actually do the deal. let us know. >> why don't you fwlaek break t it's going to happen. coming up, oil prices on the rise this morning. the opener could be a game changer. we'll have that when "squawk box" comes right back. ♪ ♪ become the only thing you think about.

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among the big market drivers this week, an opec meeting. joining us now again is cnbc contributor john kildot. he's on again. >> reinforces itself. >> it does. you have been saying the three handle is not out of the question. if they hadn't rolled the stupid contract we would be in the threes. that's how they -- that's the way it works.

i under that for future delivery. do we break under 40 if the saudis can't agree to cut? >> i do. i'll wait and see how bad this meeting gets. like in the '70s or over the years we were at their mercy and raising hackles against us. this time it's going our way. we'll be at each other's throats. >> when does it start. >> thursday going into friday but friday is the big day. >> in vienna. >> iranians are pounding the table for saudi arabia to cut. they are at each other's throats over the syrian situation. the iranians are looking to ramp up their production next year to get back on the playing field they got kicked off because of the sanction regime in place. you will see tremendous downward pressure on crude oil. >> and some security at this meeting in austria, no less? >> i guess so. i don't know.

their proxies on the ground won't bother them. >> what's break even for iran right now? >> talking in terms of budget or production costs their production costs are around $10 to $12. so quite low. >> they are fine. >> they are fine. they are making money. >> i thought they needed to be at $60 or $80. >> people confuse the two. >> politically that's important. >> politically it's important. saudi budget number is higher. 80 to even as high as 100. >> they are engaging in cutbacks that's lowering that number and the saudis are going to the market to sell some debt to may for some of these things. first time they tapped the debt market? >> how long can they do that for? if they are politically trying to bleed iran which is what's happening here -- >> what's our debt 14 trillion and they are going to market for several hundred billion. they have a ways to go.

>> we're shut in this country as much as we're going to be or more. >> this is the month to watch. the iaea should show up with several hundred thousand barrels of production coming out of the shale place. if it doesn't happen look down below. if it does happen we'll below 900 million barrels a day. >> the dynamic is supply or demand. demand may not be great? >> i think it's a perfect storm. i hate to use that word for toil market. demand is a big question mark for china and europe. obviously not here. everybody is driving like "madmen" on $1.80 gasoline here in new jersey. we've seen a weak gasoline demand numbers that rival july 4th. >> $40 is not a great time to evoke the climate apocalypse, is it? >> it's a hard sell. >> people are buying suv. >> they are all flying into

paris in big jets. >> we'll talk retail when we come back. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night.

that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv.

>> get ready for a busy week in the markets. and u.s. job reports likely to drive trading. a new look for black friday as more shoppers opted to bargain hunt online. from the comfort of home rather than venture out to crowded stores. new numbers from stores straight ahead. >> the return of a regan era relic. surprising box office numbers from creed the seventh installment of the rocky series. the second hour of "squawk box" starts now.

♪ >> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box". okay. updated rocky music. welcome back to "squawk box". here on cnbc first in business worldwide. philadelphia is looking for something positive. they are hanging their hat now on after the last eagles game. i'm john kerry along with reed sorenson. becky quick is off. u.s. equity futures today indicate about 45 points, up now three on the s&p 12 on the nasdaq. and as far as top stories go we have to start with that one, right andrew? >> that could be the big one. let's tell you the big stories. board of the u.s. federal reserve. the rule would allow any future

emergency lending to be broad based and not tailor to specific firms. more than 150 heads of state also today gathering in paris among them president obama and chinese president -- this is how much the producers think i'm a complete idiot. i know i'm on robitussin this morning. innin they spelled it xi, s-h-e,s-h-e, xi jinping will be there. there it is. she jinping. >> that's sad. >> you can read along with me. talks geared towards climate change. big article in the "wall street journal" today also talking about how two degrees celsius

may not be the right number in terms of what is the doomsday scenario. also the international monetary fund expected to add to the chinese yuan to its basket of currency reserves. that's not fair. that's not fair. people think that i know this stuff in my head. >> no they don't. at home they will see how many words you skipped, how many times you avoid things that you could -- i think we should do that. >> just do it all the time. >> get a better understanding. in fact, why don't you just read it. go 30 seconds and then come back and start talking. go ahead and read this. >> i'm not sure what move we're even talking about any more that currency move. there you go. of china's economic reforms. joe, maybe you can do this with you as well. >> this one, an update on the new world that we're living in

right now. in this case it's afghanistan. new this morning u.s. embassy in afghanistan is putting u.s. citizens in kabul on high alert. officials warning the embassy has received credible reports of an imminent attack in the country's capital within the next 48 hours. americans in kabul are being urged to exercise extreme caution if you're moving around that city following the paris attacks. u.s. state department issue ad travel warning advising americans not to travel to afghanistan. andrew, we've never stopped hearing about incidents in iraq, afghanistan and it's unfortunate because we're swayed or in beirut. we hear about another 80 people dying and we just go oh, that's happening there. that's what changed with paris and earlier when it comes to places that we're all much more familiar with. but doesn't make it any less

important to talk about kabul. and other parts of the middle east. closer to home and who knows whether this is a true treat, an fbi warning prompting officials to cancel classes and all activities at the university of chicago's hyde park campus. the decision comes after someone posted an online threat warning of gun violence at the campus at the quad area this morning at 10:00 a.m. local time. the school is asking for those to be on campus remain indoors as much as possible including students in college housing. >> they got the guy, right? >> going back to belgium and everything. but still no longer completely on lockdown but all that for the one guy. >> some other news this morning. amazon leading online sales charge so far. can online retailers carry the momentum into cyber monday.

courtney. >> reporter: good morning to you andrew. last year cyber monday was amazon's peak shopping day with 43 million items shipped worldwide. so it will be a test for the online behemoth to see if they can beat that number this year especially after a black friday that was already stronger than last year's black friday in terms of units sold. this facility in robinsville, new jersey operates nonstop, 24 hours a day. there's 4,000 employees here during the peak holiday season. in years past cyber monday has been an important shopping day for retailers following the black friday rush in sores. but the shopping event days have become blurred with so many retailers offering black friday-like discounts online and in stores days before the thanksgiving weekend and shopper access to high-speed internet all the time, cyber monday is

feeling a bit more like an after thought. still the national retail federation estimate 21 million shoppers will be online today. that's down from 127 million last year explained in part by promotions attracting a record number of consumers beginning their holiday shopping before november 10th. now cyber monday sales will hit $3 billion for the first time. an increase of 12% year-over-year. adobe also says shoppers have hit the web pretty hard spending $4.45 billion on thanksgiving day and black friday combined. back to you. >> okay. thank you courtney. we'll get data on black friday spending at 7:30 a.m. a lot happening. an opec meeting.

joining us to break down the week ahead, jim o'sullivan. and larry glazer managing partner at mayflower advisors. jim what will the number be on friday? >> close to 200. give or take 75,000 probably something like that. i got 190. certainly looks like trend is still pretty strong and that's obviously enough. >> where do you think a year from today the fed will be? >> a year from today? >> at 1%? >> i would say at least. probably higher. their own game plan is of course they start typing in two weeks time and they tighten other things about hundred basis points a year. if anything they will go faster than that because unemployment won't stop falling the way they are projected. >> larry, you're the market guy. will the stock market be able to move ahead if that happens? >> sure. absolutely. the market is waiting for that

rate hike and the market has priced it in based on the fed futures. it has to be a disaster for the fed not to raise rates and maintain any credibility. when you look at where fed is and we look at where the market is we're setting ourselves up for the longest two weeks of the year. opec, retail sales, jobs report, fed commentary. janet yellen speaks twice this week. when i look at the santa claus rally you have to start with good retail sales. for many retailers they rely on this. based on initial read it sounds cliche. first step towards recovery you have to acknowledge you have a problem. i'm listening to retailers and they have not acknowledged the severity of online threat. santa may have hit a few potholes and the fed is not tissue holding us up. >> most retailers that have thought about the future at all

they are getting those orders too. what retailers is left with brick-and-mort brick-and-mortar. some online guys are going into brick-and-mortar. >> it's interesting when you look at brick-and-mortar you have the traditional online retailers talking about their online capabilities. you look at the initial read for traffic for black friday it was pretty dismal. at the rate of decline year-over-year, obviously, it's not stable. traffic was down. and you still have major retailers blaming the warm weather. i mean that is such an excuse, it's a joke. look, we had weak retail sales before the warm november and when november is over it may not even be the top ten warmest novembers. it's a lack of execution. it's an excuse they haven't been able to transform their business. they are at the edges. they are re-arranging the chairs on the "titanic". at the rate we're going it will be the amazon thanksgiving day parade next year if things don't change.

there's a handful of retailers making that transform acceleration. majority of retailers haven't changed anything. they are fiddling around trying to figure out how to cut costs and layoff a few people to change their business model. >> you know what makes sense given gas prices and where employment is, as low as it is, this should be very positive for consumers. what's the problem? >> well consumer spending is growing. retail sales numbers and take out gasoline stations, 4% year-over-year. obviously within retailers you get a lot of different stories. just talked about macy's and amazon. macy's third quarter their sales were down. ama son was up. you look at the retail sales report, gasoline saegss are up 4% year-over-year. wage income is growing. these are not boom boom numbers but they are pretty good. >> does that mean next year will be a flatter year for stock

prices larry or goodyear or bad year >> it's interesting, joe, that the market -- certainly if you look at the last couple of weeks the market has been looking past a lot of bad news. look at turkey, russia at the end of last week. typical geopolitical situation like that would send oil prices higher and instead it came down. so i think when you start to price those factors in they are a potential threat and excuse for a selloff into next year. we'll get past fed. the issue is not will the feds raise rate the issue is how far will they raise rates. i'll tell people not to be too long and not to be too aggressive on the market and recognize we're in for a period of hiektened volatility. heightened volatility can be your friend. it's not a straight up market. you can strengthen that heightened volatility. it won't be the mega cap buy it all, all you can eat market but there will be specific sectors lots of opportunities and investors can be very selective and still make money.

you don't want to be a uniform bear but you have to recognize the easy money has been made. the buy back business is over and investors have to look for businesses that are executing and those are fewer and far between. in a rising rate environment it makes less sense. >> if they were really rising but i mean if we even get a rise it will be so marginal i can't imagine that it will stem the tide. >> it's a great point. look, it's been a financial engineering is what's been driving a lot of earnings for this market not revenue growth. when you look at the public and private markets begin to converge and one of the challenges we've seen we've seen a lot of money leave private markets going to public markets and now those exits are in question and valuations are in question. that starts to catch up with these big names maybe like amazon. maybe the ubers of the world. maybe they don't go up 10, 20 billion a year.

investors may want to go back to more traditional higher quality companies. in the public markets that have been ignored and better balance sheets have been ignored. just buying back stock -- >> do you remember that commercial, our closed captioning person called me i just quit. just dot dot dot dot, unbelievable. do you have meetings with your sales force. do they just throw up their hands and say -- hold on. let me get one more word here out of -- so a year from now given what you said about rates. where will the euro be versus the dollar. will we be at one, 110. >> through one. >> you think we'll go below? >> certainly an environment where the fed is tightening more. the fed is not, ecb is not tightening. it's supportive for the dollar to keep on going up. dollar has been going up. you never know with exchange

rates but just given what i've seen with the economy and fed and ecb staying easy and those would all point to the dollar continue to go up a bit. >> all right. >> all right, larry. you see best in show? >> joe they only allowed me one cup of coffee. >> mayflower, the boat columbus was on that's what you named -- >> look, thanksgiving is a big holiday. >> what's his name? like the guy who does the dog show. anyway, thankfully the mayflower is not columbus that was the pilgrims landing in va or something. no. plymouth rock. >> i got it. even on robitussin i got it and it's funnier. >> thank you. >> coming up, cnbc's mike

santoli will join us next. got a list of some of 2015's poor performing stocks poised for big games in 2016. then new data on black friday performance from comscore. we'll look at the season's biggest winners. dunkin' donuts isn't taking a coffee break. the company's ceo will join us with his plans for the new year. we'll be right back in a moment. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.

that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv.

>> time to get your portfolio ready for the new year. mike santoli has hated and loved stocks for a creed come back. good morning, mike. overall i'm excited about what happens next year just based on this flat year we kind of had. i don't know whether we're topping off. >> if you set it up in terms of bullish and bearish factors this long flat area it's not that positive. if may was the top of the market, let's just say ultimately it proved to be the top it would have been one of the weakest final rallies in a top in the post-war era.

it didn't fit the profile exactly. but this very narrow market is not very encouraging. >> finally have that 10% correction. >> you had the 10% correction and majority of stocks were down a lot more. that's kind of the setting for like okay what happens now? what can you carry the market in whatever direction it's going to come. >> worst case scenario. think about historical yields or not yields but interest rates. worst case scenario we go to one and a half next year. oil is at 40. we're the best economy in the world probably because we're able to raise rates. what's not to like? >> what's not to like potentially is exactly that kind of pull between what's going on here and the rest of the world. if the entire world is right and the dollar can go nothing but up at some point something breaks and that's the concern. also some weird stuff going on in the credit markets. a lot of people are saying i

hope this isn't telling you anything except bank balance sheets are kind of getting smaller at year end. i think, you know -- >> you think there's something worse? >> i don't think its worse. it's not worse like a meltdown is about to emerge. but i do think there's a lot of funky things going on. we're not sure whether it's just, you know, kind of regulatory and accounting stuff or because the markets are upside down. you have half the world with negative interest rates. >> whose idea was this? see, all you need do is come on and we can just talk. >> which is fine. >> who put this together? >> was it your idea? >> it was my idea. >> this is your angle. >> basically all i said was -- >> where are these hated stocks. >> going to year end what's down at least 10%, 15 or 17 of them. also if the street doesn't like them. basically you have this

capitulation by the analysts that can't recommend them any more. the rule is beat up retailers but beat up others. on the on the other hand hand you have these retails like bed, bath & beyond, fossil, walmart. so the point here is not they are about to go up but that basically they are very low expectations, benefiting from that. one of my favorites too is franklin resources the big mutual fund company. it trades right in line with the emerging be markets thing. but it seems to me a much better company than buying emerging be markets. >> ibm, that's just like dogs of the dow. >> these are leaps of faith. sometimes they are cheap for a reason. >> we just don't know. >> 3.8% dividend yield on ibm nobody cares. >> your willing to come back a year from now to stand bipartisan these? >> i'm sure. >> we'll save the videotape.

>> i might be required to do it. >> thank you. are you related to rick santelli? >> maybe back in the old country. >> right. ends in a vowel. >> coming up, when we return we got strong box office numbers for the holiday weekend. final hundred games movie taking the top spot. not the only big debut. we got all the details on that straight ahead. with passion. i built my busins but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line.

what's in your wallet?

>> welcome back to "squawk box". final signalment of the "hunger games" series topping the box office this weekend. "mockingjay part 2" posted strong numbers this weekend. and "creed," seventh rocky movie brought in $42.6 million over the holiday period. it tells the story of the son of rocky's rival. >> i saw "mockingjay." >> and? >> i didn't read the books. i've seen the other movies.

i didn't know what was going on, really. i didn't. there was one part where i remember i got my parking thing validated. right in the middle of the movie i left and went up and walking around. >> in the middle of the movie. >> i came back. kids said what did do you? they were laughing i got my parking ticket validated during the movie. >> you know it's saint t. andre day. in scotland it's a big deal. >> i don't know what my name is today. >> robitussin is hitting me hard. we got to talk about the big short. it's coming out soon.

big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.

that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv.

we're such the odd couple. i had to ask joe. yeah. welcome back to "squawk box" this morning right here on cnbc first in business worldwide. among stories front and center, anheuser-busch taking steps to ease regulatory control in europe over its control of s and b miller. in washington today, lawmakers will return to capitol hill. they are now less than two weeks away now left until the deadline to pass a $1.1 trillion spending bill or face a government shutdown. it expires on december 11th. chain restaurants in new york city will have to display menu warnings on salt rich dishes. new rule takes effect tomorrow will require a little salt

shaker emblem on the menu items that exceed the recommended daily limit of sodium which is about a tea spoon. the former mayor bloomberg getting his way. he likes salt. who doesn't. we aldo. >> tea spoon. problems. if you went to bed early you missed an exciting finish to the broncos-patriots game. after losing tight end rob gronkowski to injury in the fourth quarter the patriots kick a field goal to tie it after another one of those drills, tom brady vintage drills. new england failed to score on it's overtime possession. denver c.j. anderson broke for a touchdown to hand the patriots their first loss of the season. but the giants almost beat the patriots too. so -- >> not going to show the pass that we showed? that's something else. >> it is.

it's weird because i don't see that much but i saw the first catch, i was actually there. saw that live and i watched this one. saw it live. i saw where the ball was going and it's just -- there's no way. and then all of a sudden that hand comes out and snags it and just unbelievable to see live on the 75-inch hi-def screen. analytics company score tracking figures. gian fulgoni comscore chairman america and co-founder. we saw you last week before we knew anything. now we know. what do you think? is it a b minus? what do you think? b plus? >> so, i would say it's a b plus maybe even an a for online certainly. sales growth for the two days, black friday up 20% sales in total. staggering 50% increase in mobile sales.

10% increase in desk top sales. so i would have to give it a high rating, online that is. apparently the news isn't so good for the offline world where the reports i'm seeing is sales were down 1% or so over that two day period in stores. so, we got this channel shift occurring and it really seems to have accelerated over this holiday period with online representing somewhere now about 24% of all the sales that occurred there. so big changes. >> is there anyway to measure people that are in stores buying on their mobile phone? we were talking about that earlier. i can't imagine, but is that really a trend too? >> well, certainly there's some of that that happens. we don't have a direct measure on exactly where that, that mobile base purchase occurs whether it's in the store or in the home. but the vast majority has to be

at the home. interesting stat is there are about 70% of all internet usage on mobile devices is in the home as opposed to being outside of the home. so i would imagine that the buying is there as well. >> in your view is there a number that would -- you wouldn't see many gains from there. you would think -- you said 24%. where does it peak? 35%? does it peak at 80%? any idea? should these guys close their brick-and-mortar? there's a lot of online firms opening brick-and-mortar stores. that experience will never go away i don't think. >> i think you're right. i don't think the experience will ever go away. the 24% is high relative to what we've seen coming in to the season. coming into the season it was running 15%. 24% is way higher. i think part of it reflects -- for a lot of stores on

thanksgiving day they didn't open until 6:00 at night. but it's tough to peg an exact upside on digital commerce, but i would say it's going to be north of 35% before too long. yeah, the convenience, the convenience, the selection, the prices, all make it really compelling for consumers today. >> god help us if, you know -- i just hope -- i mean i hope we get our security. i hope -- the nsa are they not doing it any more? we need just one time fit happens. that would be very scary if it were to happen in the malls, i hate to even bring it up. but it's in all of our minds now given what happened in paris and that would put online sales to 50% probably >> that's an interesting point. it's very possible that that could have heightened consumer

concernser and actually spurred more online buying over the past several days. >> you know, my wife tells me i'm going -- just be aware. and there's so many entrances and there's just no way to -- you know they are soft targets. they got paul balart riding on a segue with a can of mace. >> i don't like you talking about it. >> what? >> i don't like you talking about it. >> you got to think about it. you live here. you got to think about it here too new york. the world we're living in. at least we got this climate thing under control. anyway, thank you. >> spend a lot of time on that. said it without any commentary. stick with retail, cyber monday

is under way. joining us is nigel travis, co-chairman anne ceo, e commerce mega destination for home goods offering 7 million products from 7,000 suppliers. good morning. so what do you think is happening here? this whole omni challenge, you're only in challenge only. >> we have one store. >> do you? >> you were pretty much online. pure online. >> it feels like online this season not that we're at the tipping point. every season we say we're at a tipping point. are we at a tipping point >> movement to online is accelerating. tipping point i don't know if that's the phrase. joe's point is right. there is a role for stores. online can grow a tremendous amount before a plateau out. what you saw this holiday is consumers are realizing all the benefits, the convenience, the selection, online is preferable to parking half a mile away, walking, getting --

>> look, we created -- i don't know if we created but there's friday, there's monday, there's these days. are they no longer -- in an online world do they have the same import because it used to be, you would show images of people on television trying to, you know, ram through the door at walmart or whatever it was and it felt like a moment, an event. everybody sitting at home and on their phone. >> what i found there are more and more -- the season is getting spread out but there's definitely sale events that get kicked off on black friday and cyber monday. tomorrow is giving tuesday. next monday is green monday. am these days. >> silly, silly. >> basically you have the season that's programmed out it last as number of weeks and there are key days. >> what's your margin like on a day like today? >> you know our margin -- we focus on having every day low prices. >> are you discounting today?

>> we do do heavy discounting. we're offering good value every day. when we do discounting it's chipped in by manufacturers and suppliers. >> what's the strategy? the strategy that you're going to lose money. is this the razor blade model you'll lose money on one product to get them in the door and get the home buy five other things related to it? >> not in our business. we feature on home decor. we don't have loss leaders. we're not selling milk and consumables. in our business we have a healthy profit on every item. >> to the question joe was talking about and it's this omni channel brick-and-mortar idea, you did open a store. amazon just opened up a book store in seattle. what is that about and does that work long term if you think that macy's is suffering in part because it has so many stores. >> so there's no question that there are too many stores out there and no question that store

format where you're trying to off terrify full experience under a roof is not going to work. so the way we think about stores is that we're not really terribly interested in opening stores right now. the reason is there's so much more we can do online and we can do to reach our consumer and give her a great experience without the capital for brick-and-mortar stores. at some poin we're building a household brand. is there a role for stores? perhaps. they would be much smaller than what you see these big footprint stores with huge amount of inventory sitting under the roof. i think what you're seeing with online folks that have gone to stores who decided it's the right time their model for stores tend to be no inventory, showroom type experience more of an extension of their brand. >> i got a tough question for you. you know this is coming. one thinks you have no competitive advantage against the walmart and targets of

world. >> i believe we do have a competitive advantage. when we talk about the benefits of convenience and selection what we do with personalization, all of these things add up and that's why we're growing. our last quarter, $600 million quarter, $2.4 million. our direct business grew 1% year-over-year. >> without profit. >> without profit but because of the rate of growth. if you look -- we generated 35 million in free cash flow. when you grow at 91%. >> is the idea that you're models yourself in a jeff bezos way. you can switch the dial and then prochts will come streaming in. >> if you look today you can see the profits are already there. what we're doing because of the rate of growth we're investing our customer base. looking at unit economics nothing needs to change. amazon, where we're similar take a long view of building an

enduring franchise. what's different we're very much focused on a particular category. we're only a retailer. >> have you spoken to mr. tilson? >> i have not. >> do you want to? he is against your stock. >> the way i think about it, right. if you said hey we'll group you in with google, tesla and netflix, you'll be misunderstood by a set of investors for a number of years and a set of investors betting on you and in the end if you're successful much will see what happens that's fine. right? you're always going to have folks who don't understand what you're doing if you're doing something that's disruptive. that's the way i want goes. >> thanks for coming in this morning. >> coming up, coffee and beyond. dunkin' donuts has big plans to drive holiday sales. how about trying a snicker doughnut. >> eat it right here.

>> can't bring myself to do it.

dunkin' donuts is getting in on the mad dash for holiday deals with a lineup of new menu items and seasonal discounts.

nigel travis joins us to talk about competition in breakfast, coffee and more. he's chairman and ceo of dunkin' donuts brands. knowing you, first thing i would have done is just put christmas trees and, you know, candy canes all over my cups. oh, you did do that. see, i know you. i know exactly how you think. i know exactly how you think. starbucks does one thing you do the opposite. >> well, joe, i would love to claim that we did that but we've done a nice joy cup for many years. we think it's important everyone should celebrate the holiday season and i wish i could take credit for the initiative but it's what we do every year. >> i would ramp it up. just not changing it. not just going along with the secular pc movement is a feather in your cap. i'm boycotting not for that but

for other reasons. >> you're boycotting what >> too expensive. >> you like this better. designee keeps raising prices with coffee prices going down and preaches to everyone else about how to run their company. >> who are you talking about without by name >> howard schultz. >> go ahead. >> so, joe, i think, you know, you've given us a perfect interalluinte interlude to value. it's not just cyber monday but a good day to announce our pm break. can you go into our stores. for 1.99 you can get hot or iced a macchiatto or latte. that's 1.50 off. great value at dunkin' donuts as well as those beautiful doughnuts you high lighted earlier. >> what about coffee price? what have they done in the last three months, year.

they have gone down? >> they moved down. they have been mundane for about 15 months. we're not worried about coffee prices right now. that's great for franchise margins which is important to our business. what we want to do is translate to great value for our guests. our guests come in to our stores. one of the things we're trying to work very hard at is get our guests to come in in the afternoon. we got great record in the morning, great sales in the morning. we want our guests to come in the afternoon. relax. enjoy the wi-fi. and enjoy the holiday season. >> when is the last time you raised prices on just your drinks? >> well, in the summer i think it's fair to say that some of our franchiseees did raise prices. that wasn't necessarily a good thing. we had discussion since then about price and value and one of the reasons we brought in this pm break is to make sure we can deliver great value to our guests. if we deliver great value to our

guests they will not only buy our coffee, they will buy our breakfast sandwiches, pm sandwiches and doughnuts. one other thing i should say they will buy our k-cups. it's a great deal. we got a sample pack right now for 19.99. you get 25 k-cups. >> look at this guy. never misses an opportunity. nigel, what do you make of the return of the come back if you will of mcdonald's and what does that mean to your business? >> well, mcdonald's, as i said to you many times, andrew is a great company. i love competing with them. i think they are doing a great job. their all day breakfast has emphasized one thing. the only place you can get all day breakfast, all day meals, the same thing all day every day is dunkin' donuts and it's been that way for about 30 years. we were the first to have a flexible menu where you can have

your coffee anyway you want, you can have skim milk, you can order your sandwich on different carriers. we not only have the same menu all day we have it in a personalized way. i think these days consumers want personalization and that's what you get at dunkin' donuts. >> i don't know whether the results track the price of the shares but what has been the -- what accounts for the weakness in the shares? the market was weak for a while. retailers have been weak. what have you done to stem that? >> well, joe, i'm one of these people i get up every morning, i look at the numbers every morning at 5:30. after that i look at the stock price. i hate the stock price going down. it was about our u.s. cups. our earnings were find. we gave guidance that was on track. it's about our cups. we met with our franchiseees. we're on the same page. it's about two things. first value that i just talked

about and secondly our digital initiatives. our franchiseees are incredibly excited what we're testing in portland, maine. that will be rolled out next year once we get bugs out of the system. our digital initiatives, delivery, expand to four more cities today. that's the future and i think that's going to do great things for our stock price in 2016. >> i go every saturday. i went thursday, friday, saturday and sunday. >> what did you get? >> i get the same thing every time. >> just a coffee. >> two coffees. a latte for myself. a couple of munchkins. >> so, joe, when you go and see your friend sid, the good news with online ordering you can save your favorites. once you get close to the store press go, go through the drive through or you go into the front counter. now you don't have to talk to anyone but i know you want to

talk to sid so you probably want to go around that. on the go ordering will speed up our service. >> i walk through the door. it starts when i walk through the door. i don't -- if it's any faster they have to bring it out to me or something. anyway, how is california? that was another nigel idea. why don't we go the biggest state in the country? how it is working out there? >> california is going great. it's above our expectations. identify talked to some franchiseees out there last week. they are really happy. good news in california, joe. >> all right, nigel. thank you. >> thank you. >> coming up when we return stocks on the move ahead of the opening bell. your list of stocks to watch. we'll bring you that next. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.

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can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. welcome back to "squawk box". one quick stock to watch this morning, microsoft upgraded a strong by from market performer raymond james. price target $62. that stock up more than 1% pre-market trading. >> 60 would be a multichip year high and that's been pretty good run in recent years. >> what's wrong >> nothing. i'm not laughing. i'm just happy. happy to see you, sir >> you're totally punchy. >> yeah. i have a cough, guys. look a little robitussin.

it's a big week for energy with opec ministers meeting in vienna on friday. we'll talk oil prices in just a moment. also security in focus this holiday season. former nyc police commissioner, this is very important, ray kelly will join us right here on the set to talk to us about precautions in place right here in the big apple. we're right back with him and a lot more.

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big week ahead from the fed to opec to the jobs report. investors will be on edge for what some are calling the most important week of the year for the markets. we'll break down what you need to watch straight ahead. >> protecting the empire city, former new york city police commissioner ray kelly opens up about law enforcement, leadership and the fight against terror. he's our special guest. >> a legal battle over billionaire red stone's health raising questions about his ability to run his two major media companies. that story plus drones, the patriots, and odell versus adele as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

>> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york city. this is "squawk box". totally by accidents. i was talking about odell, he was talking about adele -- >> coming together. >> welcome back to "squawk box". the currents odd couple, felix and -- what's the other guy's name. >> oscar. >> i remember jack lemon and walter mathieu in the original. >> somebody wrote bert and ernie. >> checking out the markets in europe this hour, up for most of the session and so has our futures. 45 or so on the dow. and then in europe we had gains of anywhere between 1% as you

can see in germany, three quarters of a percent and france almost 1% and italy and spain now even the ftse has turned marginally positive at this hour. >> let's tell you about some stories that investors will be talking about. crude oil sejing higher ahead of a key opec meeting. oil ministers will gather friday and are expected to pressure saudi arabia to cut production. that's an overture saudis will resist. imf expected to approve the addition of yuan to join euro, japanese yen and dollar and british pound. and governor chris christie picked up the endorsement of new hampshire's largest newspaper in his bid for the presidency. the nod from the new hampshire union leader could boost the campaign. right there it's done pretty well. i asked the question over and

over again how are you doing in the polls. he would always say if you get new hampshire, you get iowa, get on the ground. >> it's different now with twitter and social media and everything happening, time is now, you know, so packed together. but in different campaigns -- howard dean until he -- thank god that he did that yell. thank god he did that yell before he got too far along. but he looked like the guy -- >> look like a big winner. >> and john kerry. that was also fortunate for some people. >> let's also tell you it's cyber monday. we're not sure whether black friday and cyber monday matters any more. it seems to. fedex is ready for huge volume. the company is expecting double the daily volume.

morgan. >> reporter: orchestrate yeah, you're right. the last time we spoke with you this morning activity here has certainly picked up. if you take a look at these packages coming through and getting loaded on trucks many of them came from sorting facilities including the main one in memphis, via newark international airport and they are loaded on these trucks and headed out to door steps to of the bronx and manhattan. today cyber monday is the first of three expected peak days for the company when volume, package volumes are expected to double the daily average. so this scenario, this facility, excuse me will handle tens of thtsds of shipments today. tonight it will be even busier and cyber orders begin to come through. >> today we'll probably see about maybe 25%, 30% increase in our volume. it starts right after thanksgiving and we see that type of unanimous crease. every year with e commerce we've seen more and more coming on. >> so this scenario is playing

out at 1250 fedex hubs across the country for the holidays. we got delivery companies that have been gearing up for this peak season since the end of the last one the start of the year. so fedex alone invests $1.6 billion this fiscal year into fedex ground, into capacity and automation, hiring more than 55,000 seasonal workers, sorting packages seven days a week during the holidays, running expanded express operations and as we saw two holiday seasons ago how important this is watching the weather very closely. expect swrags that all of this prep work will translate into another record season for the company. 317 million packages is the expectation to be delivered between thanksgiving and christmas eve. that would represent a 12% increase versus last year and hopefully all those packages being delivered on time. guys, back over to you. >> okay, morgan, thank you. love fedex, u.p.s..

key component in the dow transportation index as well. amazon revealed a new prototype in a new video released on youtube. >> an amazon drone, rising to nearly 400 feet. this amazing hybrid design becomes a stream line and fast airplane. >> i think that's the narrator. the drone will use sense and avoid to dodge obstacles in the air and on the ground and goes a range of 15 mills. amazon will launch it once they have faa support. >> even a suburb would you be okay with that? >> no.

propellers. put an eye out. you need safety goggles wherever you go. >> well it's a long conversation. meantime couple of other headlines. ab inbev planning to seek ease european regulatory concerns over its pending acquisition. ab inbev planning to sell grolsch and peroni brands as part of the $108 billion deal. ab inbev iaaf greed to sell miller coors joint deal. it will create a brewing company that dominates about 30% of the world's beer market. we'll see whether that placate market regulators. friday's jobs report and opec's meeting. november auto sales, pmi manufacturing and construction spending data out tomorrow. then the november adp employment

report third quarter productivity and fed's beig ebook and then ism service index and we round it out with november jobs report. janet yellen will have a lot to chew on. >> opec is preparing to meet this friday in vienna. iran plans to boost its production by 500,000 barrels a day. increasing output which is already exceeding its 17 month target. joining us now to talk about the current state of the oil glut ahead of the opec meet is capital managing partner. charles company is a private equity firm investing in oil field manufacturing and servicing companies. charles we talked about this earlier and are we shut in now in this country as much as it's going to happen or is there still -- is there still more to come if prices stay down here? >> there's a lot more to come,

unfortunately. it will probably be a really lousy 2016 in the u.s. as well as in the global oil market. things might start to get better toward the end of the year. hard to call these things with precision. you're looking at a market today that's fundamentally oversupplied and it just takes a long time for that oversupply to correct itself. so there's been about $200 billion in cap x cuts in the industry since the downturn kicked in last year. but it's got a ways to go before it corrects. so we're looking at paying for the next 12 months or so. >> just focusing on supply and then i'll ask you about the demand side of things. when we were producing the peak number of barrels per day here domestically what was the peak? >> about 9.4 million barrels a day. we're now at 9.1 now. we should expect to go down more. it's bean real surprise to

people in the industry to see how little u.s. production has gone down. the wells we drill here in the u.s. shale are high decline. so they declined about 75% from day one until the end of year one. everyone expected as rigs got laid down and remember we had a rig count reduction of more that was 60% we would see a sharper decline. what's happened producers focused on their very best wells. they focused on drilling more stages completing more stages and the best acreage and that's caused a rollover in u.s. production to happen more slowly than people might have anticipated. >> for iran's 500,000 a day increase that took care of the decrease and then some here. >> did it. there's sort of a short term and long term to this. in the long term we're actually setting up than something you'll hear the saudis start talking about leading up to these opec meetings. they like a lot of analysts are

very concerned the cuts in cap x will thread a real shortage in supply in a couple of years. the measures you take in the short run to deal with low prices only have an effect in the long run. sort of this production hangover right now but if you look forward to sort of 2017 and '18 we'll have the opposite problem and you'll see a real shortage because all of this cap x reduction today will lead to lower output in a couple of years. so, it's going to be a really oversupplied lousy market in 2016 but the worse it is and the longer it lasts the more acute the short fall will be in a couple of years. kind of ironic. >> is there anything happening on the demand side that we don't know about or is it just a slow steady increase? >> that's exactly right. if you look at the last 20 years global demand has increased steadily a million, million and a half barrels a day per year. the only exception was '08-'09. this year has been a big demand increase.

next year probably roughly in line with this year. this is really a supply story. demand growth largely driven by the developing world. that will continue to absorb excess supply but just takes a long time for that market to balance. >> in your normal daily business, you're buying as much as you can get your hands on with the prospects for 2017 and '58? >> that's a great question. we're not on the service side. the reason is essentially you're buying a future set of cash flows when you buy an oil service or manufacturing company on the assumption those cash floss will be negative for the next year or so. you want to place your bets as a buyer later in the downturn when the positive cash floss are on the term horizon and where prices are lower than they are today. on the private side big mismatch between sellers expectations and buyers appetite. that should start to clean up

later next year. >> all right. got it. thanks. coming up what it takes to protect new york city. that was the job of former nyc police commissioner ray kelly. he'll join us on set next to talk about security and his new book "vigilance." "squawk box" will be right back. through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments so in a variety of market conditions... you can feel confident... ...in our experience. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

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welcome back to box this morning. the fed holding a meeting this morning about a rules to handle future financial crisis and steve liesman joins us now. >> under the new rules they govern the emergency lending. fed chair janet yellen saying under the new rules the fed count make the loans they made during the financial crisis. fed can only lend to broad base credit and these new rules, they will define that, prohibit emergency lending to individual companies and in order to define that it says at least five persons i suppose companies with persons must be eligible for this new emergency credit. under the new rule member loans

must be made at a penalty rate and prohibits lending to insolvent firms. there's no rule, one recommendation had been declined to adopt it were the rules to value collateral. the fed saying it can do a fine job on that. this just is a period exclamation point on this dodd-frank rule that limited the fed's borrowing powers. >> rules based fed. that's insane. maybe should just fly by the seat of their pants like they have been doing. don't you think? it's subjective. this person likes it easy. whatever janet thinks. whatever janet wants. right? >> right. >> you're not going engage. >> at that rules based monetary policy is stupid. but people have a right to their opinion especially in the anchor seat. >> just fly by the seat of your pants. >> not faith. there's 17 people on the committee. there's an army of economists.

what they are showing is that there's no rule that works at all times, joe, especially with a gold based standard. as opposed to what? markets going up. do you have the rule? >> currencies. >> do you have the rule that will work? >> i just think you could do a little bit more than what we're doing now. >> as opposed to what. what would you have done differently? there's a thing. everybody has an idea and the idea is only based on the outcome they want. >> i'm popping off. these other people have these ideas. >> these people with these ideas. >> i'm popping off. >> i'm fine with ideas. i looked at them all. in read the rules. i don't see a rule that would work in the situations we need it. trouble is people who want the outcome of higher rates they are the ones that a rule. >> i'm not saying i want higher rates. >> he's trying to instigate. >> this week a lot of data to talk about this.

in the meantime the paris attacks raising anxiety levels of course here in new york and our next guest knows firsthand what goes into protecting the big apple. rays kelly is vice chairman of k2 and author of "vigilance." we're very privileged to have you here this morning. so it's very basic question which is how safe are we right now or not? >> well, we're safer. no question about it. we invest ad lot. safer than we've been let's say five years ago. i mean the department, police department, federal agencies continue to refine, to hone their skills. no question about it we live in a dangerous world. new york is the number one target in this country. this is where they want to come to make a statement. the cultural capital, communications capital, phil mickelson capital. new york as we said many times has done more than any other city to protect itself. >> you may consider this a

political question. back in 2014 under de blasio new york dropped a unit that spied on muslims. was that a right or wrong decision? >> the unit didn't spy on muslims. it was a demographic unit. we wanted to know who lived in new york city. new york is the most diversity city in the world. it was not done in a surreptitious manner. people did it openly. it was a mistake to drop the unit. it was a mistake symbolically. and substantively. i hope that work is being done in other parts of the department. >> but the idea was -- the idea was they would have police in mosques and other places like that. >> that unit had nothing to do with the investigation of cases. but what we have said is we told leads wherever those leads took us. if it took us to a mosque or a

synagogue tore saint patrick's cathedral we continue that investigation. >> let me read this. this is from today's "wall street journal". how obama chilled surveillance. it says here that the american intelligence community is forced to operate under some of the most restrictive and bureaucratally ambiguous intelligence gathering since its inception. you say we're safer than five years ago. is this right? >> i don't know specifically what policies they are talking about. i think the movement of the information, the bulk data to the phone company was bizarre because people trust the phone company more than they trust their government. i think that was a tool that was reasonable that congress passed that didn't give anybody the ability to listen to conversations. what it did was just put information in one place so it could be obtained more quickly. so the move spurred by edward snowden's revelations certainly

i think is a move in the wrong direction. >> commissioner, high value soft targets that don't have, nobody on the premises has a gone. i'm thinking malls right now. i understand the political climate right now and the president every time there's a shooting, you know, jump on the gun control issue once again. we had the "daily news," they dress up the nra guy in costumes every couple of days. would you try to protect a treasury building without an armed person, would the president ever leave the white house without someone that has a firearm somewhere? can you -- how do you protect a mall with all those entrances and have no one in there that has -- should there be police there? how do you do it? >> there are some things. depends on the configuration there are strip malls. >> what about the big malls. is that a good idea for that to be a totally soft target? >> you say good idea?

it's a mall. trying to make money. >> seems insane not to have at least a placeman somewhere on the premises. >> many malls do. you can now hire police officers who are off duty and many malls have police officers there. cameras have been installed. there are early warning system buttons that sort of thing. malls are open. we haven't seen with the exception of maybe one or two events, we haven't seen -- >> i worry about that. >> worry about all soft targets. we're surrounded by soft targets no question about it. we live in an open society. yes. we're vulnerable. no question about it. >> but the political whims at this point are not blowing in a way that would allow more guns, it's going to -- the pressure is for less guns even if they are in hand of people that -- the good guys. >> i'm not totally in support of more guns. i want takes a lot of training, a lot of concentration and time

to train people to be proficient with guns. in the new york city police department when there's a shooting, police officers who are highly trained strike their target 20% of the time. so if you have civilians out there with guns that perhaps they fired only once or maybe never fired and they are in a situation where the adrenaline is flowing you want them out there shooting their guns? you have to think hard about that whole issue. >> well, i'm not talking civilians, we would be crazy in losses, not a single building in washington where an important building where there isn't someone that push comes to shove that is in a position to return fire. you're at someone's mercy for 30, 45 minutes which is the problem. >> yeah. we're talking about government buildings. >> needs to be protected. how can you guarantee the safety of a soft target if a guy has 35

or 40 minutes to -- >> no guarantees in this world. no guarantees where we are in this day and age. >> before we let you go, i do want to know, in terms of the isis threat relative to what we just saw in paris their ability to come here right now? >> i think the power they have is inspirational power. these lone wolves, these disaffected young people to be in their basement their videos are very sophisticated and well done. we've seen them act out as a result of this. so isis is several things. it's a land army albeit a small one about 30,000. but also an internet force, an inspirational force, it's a movement. it's a growing force. we haven't seen anything like this in the world of terrorism and, you know, it's been a game changer. >> one risk question.

do you think in the next ten years there will be an attack on new york? >> difficult to say. i think they want to come to new york, as i said. new york, if they were able to come to new york and do anything at all it would be a major feather in their cap. i think new york is still seen as the place to come. >> but as a risk prognisticator. >> probability of an attack here. >> thank you. go out and get the book. >> a big week ahead for the fed. what investors need to know just ahead. we'll be right back. this is the one place we're not afraid to fail. some of these experiments may not work. but a few might shape the future. like turning algae into biofuel... ...new technology for capturing co2 emissions... ...and cars twice as efficient as the average car today.

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welcome back to box this morning. let's take a look at some stocks that are on the move. shares of fitbit are on the rise. a recent slide of more than 26% is unjustified for a company with a solid business. shares of staples are up while office depot is sliding. the federal trade commission leaning towards more blocking the proposed purchase of office depot. intercontinental hotels is having a target report. some china based investors may have the hotel operator in its sights now that marriott construction a deal to buy

starwood. chinese investors were looking to buy starwood. and then teva pharmaceutical. and tribune is not in talks to sell. rupert murdoch tweeted that the tribune would sell. >> office depot and staples, seriously? they are going take over -- there's so much competition elsewhere online and walmart or target, right? that's like sirius xm. that's like globe records not being able to merge with the other mall record retailer. >> it's going out of business. >> sort of blockbuster merging with west coast video. >> remember sam goody, tower

records. >> you have to change your formula. >> countdown to friday jobs report. a ton of data between now and then and steve liesman heads the big december agenda. i can't believe that friday is the jobs -- we were just doing that. >> i wonder if there's less time because it is sort of an early friday. >> 30 days in november. >> if i thought about it i would know that. but we have decisions. we have data. we have speeches. i'm not sure -- we have the decisions. imf on the yuan and sdr basket is the first decision. that should come today. not a huge thing. it's sort of called a feather in the cap for the chinese. they still have work to do in terms of making it accessible for international trading. and then thursday it's the ecb on rates and friday is the opec meeting. slight mistake on that full screen right there. i believe it's thursday ecb meets on interest rates.

moving to speeches the fed governor on rates and yellen on outlook. note both of those yellen speeches comes before the friday jobs report. certainly be better after. maybe the friday jobs report will speak for itself. stan fisher continuing his run on speeches on financial stability. then mario draghi right here in new york speaking on friday. tuesday, ism manufacturing that could still show a little bit of weakness there when it comes to manufacturing. though, again, interesting on the same day you get auto sales. wednesday the big adp report and the beig ebook. friday looking for jobs, looking to iv -- 205,000 jobs. unemployment rate unchanged. hourly wages not expected to do as well but a decent run. we got that big number in the personal income number last week when you were away, joe on wednesday i think it was.

0.6% rise in wages which was a big number. >> one day, steve. so how many months have 28 days? all of them. anyway -- >> that's like this one you did to me. >> all months have 28 days. >> all of them. >> how many months only have 28 days. >> do you spend extra time preparing your memorial for "squawk box"? >> how many have at least 1130 days? >> i'll take your account. >> a they have 30 day. only february has 28. >> that's true. that's right. work with me. joining us -- >> 31. >> they have at least 30. okay. >> okay. joining us now with more data points that could sway the fed's upcoming larry lindsay knew what i was talking about. he's a former federal reserve

governor. maybe i'll get you started with steve he thinks its crazy for the fed to have rules of any kind it should be totally seat of the pants depends on who is in there. they feel like raising rates, dropping rates, whatever they feel like. have they think is right. >> for the record he completely misstates. >> just put the right person in there. >> feel free to answer the question in defense of rules. >> central banks are the closest that god has come to perfection so i have to agree with steve. so you know i do think that the right thing to do is to leave the fed maximum flexibility. if the president and congress don't like it, well they are grilled regularly before the congress. they can be grilled more regularly. once you set a rule, as we learned, for example, in recent times, we focused for example only on price inflation and

neglected asset inflation. that's why we had three bubbles. the third bubble we deliberately tried to create asset inflation. i would rather have the fed try and explain itself rather than to be constrained by rules. >> i get where this is coming from. it's coming from frustration, coming from a sense that fed put it at zero, left it there and concern about what happens on, as a result of zero interest rates. the fed acted in extraordinary ways during the financial crisis. lending to aig, bear stearns, lehman brothers that's use have dodd-frank. it's fair to say the critics of the federal reserve they have support in the fed's own actions. what should the fed have done or could it do now to kind of alleviate those concerns? >> well, i mirror the minutes saying it when i was there. i think the idea of letting an

asset bubble run is one of the most foolish things a central bank can do. they always end badly. and in this case what we've done is one, the first one ended badly. we let it run too long and created a second one. now i think we're letting it run too long and creating a third one. the fed really needs have a long term focus and unfortunately when you encourage an asset bubble as a process running monetary policy, you're taking in an immediate focus, very popular at the beginning. everybody loves the upside. cleaning up the mess on the down side is bad. i think that's where the problem is. asset bubbles should not be, should not be a substitute for long run monetary policy ever. >> it feels pretty good still larry every time it looks -- >> it does feel good. >> around the world it feels good. >> absolutely. it's a party. it's a party. and everyone loves a party. parties always end badly

particularly when they go on for in this case seven years. the hangover is going to be pretty bad. >> that still remains to be seen. we don't have any evidence it will end badly at this point. >> at this point it will never end that's what we're thinking. >> have you guys at 4:00 in the morning -- >> most of the parties i've been to think they will never end either and have to drive home but we all are. and i don't think that running a, again, a bubble or asset price oriented monetary policy is appropriate. certainly what was necessary to clean up the last bubble you had to do something in '09, '08-'09 but running it for seven years is not the right thing to do. >> isn't that the cause of the frustration and yes that's the cause of the frustration. >> are you going to london? pound around 1.50. euro under 1.06.

this is the negative side. we're moving but the separation is coming. >> larry, i don't know why -- >> when the central bank is running at different paces that's going to happen. we're now at the point where the only transmission mechanism for monetary policy is through the exchange rate. that's a sign that, you know, globally we really are on our last legs. we're out of ammunition. >> you told me romney was going to win who will win the gop nomination in your view? >> doubt if i know. >> never heard of him. >> don't know. >> do you like anyone? you backing anyone? who is your guy? >> i am not for either party. we'll see how it all shakes out. the public anger is real. public anger is justified. and i think we're seeing it on both side of the political spectrum right now.

>> all right. larry lindsay things. >> coming up undefeat nod more patriots fall to the denver broncos and may have lost a key player. as we head to break take a look at u.s. equities futures at this hour. we're back in a moment.

. the patriots perfect no more. the denver broncos meet tom brady and company in overtime, 30-24. running back after they scored on a 48-yard run. aside from losing the game the patriots also -- this is even more significant loss tight end rob gronkowski late in the fourth quarter with a right knee injury, carried off the field. no word yet on his status for this upcoming weekend against the eagles. eagles have their own story of woe to tell. just got blown out again. got blown out by detroit. >> coming up we got another big drama surrounding a media mogul. the court raising some questions or a battle in court raising questions about the mental health of sumner redstone.

how will this impact the future of viacom and cbs? we'll talk about it when we return.

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box". drama in the media world. last week a lawsuit was filed against sumner redstone by his ex-girlfriend raising questions about his mental competence. this afternoon scheduled conference for that case will be held in los angeles. julie boorstin joins us now to tell us what the suit means for redstone and the two media giants he controls. >> reporter: this lawsuit raises some big questions but the

future of viacom and cbs and sumner redstone's role as chairman of both companies. his ex-girlfriend her lawsuit questions his mental capacity alleging the 92-year-old is unable to speak except brief grunted responses and fixated on having sex and he wanting steaks. redstone's attorneys reject her claim as quote riddled with lies and they quote viacom's ceo calling him engaged and attentive. now if redstone is found to be income period ten and anyone knew ahead of time the company could be liable opening the door to potential lawsuits. redstone owns 80% of national amusements. his daughter owns the remaining 20%. national amusements owns 79.6% of voting shares of viacom and cbs. if redstone is deemed to be incompetent or he dies seven trustees will control his shares including his daughter, her son,

along with the cbs director and three long time lawyers for the family. as for who will become viacom's chairman there's speculation that dauman and redstone's daughter cobalt for the role. there's question about the future for cbs since it has performed better. redstone's attorney wouldn't comment other than to direct to us their response to the suit. we do hope to find out more this afternoon when a judge holds a scheduling conference for the case. andrew? >> thank you. we appreciate that. we'll continue this conversation right now because joining us to talk more about what all this might mean for the media controls under redstone's company. the question in term of the stock is, is it living under some kind of sumner redstone discount or is there sumner redstone premium because people think ultimately these companies get taken out? >> i think in the case of viacom/cbs the multiples are so

depressed it's hard to argue that there's a premium in there. so the question is if sumner were to become incapacitated and a succession event the decision-making power passes into a trust where we think shari redstone's power is increased. what becomes of viacom and cbs. the stock is trading higher. there's more of a potential positive outcome for cbs. cbs is more appealing to potential buyers. >> do you believe it gets taken out? >> i don't know. >> taken over? >> the trust would have to approve it, right. the we is a lot of people say why doesn't viacom and cbs get-together. put the companies together solve a lot of questions about viacom being dropped by distributors and so forth, more hefty media asset. i don't think you can put them together. they would have to be sold outright because you have minority shareholders and they

would litigate if they didn't get a full and fair premium. in a go shop situation which of these two assets is more appealing to a buyer like a liberty or time warner or management buy out like cbs itself. viacom could acquire cbs. again would have to be for a full and fair premium. the key here is when something happens and the lawsuit is interesting because it's saying sumner is incapacitated. even if he were to pass possible that -- >> why do you believe shari redstone will try to run the whole thing and keep doing what they are doing? >> she may. she may. but then what might happen is because, you know, sumner's decision-making now is no longer is relevant. previously you had a situation where sumner wouldn't sell or wouldn't be able to engaeng now you might have somebody like a liberty or time warner going in and engage for these assets.

investment bankers in new york -- >> everybody is thrilled. everybody is playing this parlor game. >> we wrote a research report earlier this year talking about engage assets. >> everybody is shrilled that everybody is playing this parlor game about who is buying the company. we wrote a research report earlier this year about les moonves. les is now protecting himself, protecting cbs against a buy-out. there's no love lost between les and philipe doman. red stone controls the voting shares. >> what does it say that sumner red stone has given over control to felipe and not les? >> that's a legacy thing.

as things move forward, the new trustees will become more powerful and it's speculated that shari is more aligned with les than felipe. >> you have been precluded from talking about stake. sumner has said he's not going to die. >> when we return, jim cramer and the philadelphia eagles. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis and a $200 savings card.

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get down to the new york stock exchange and jim cramer joins us now. i guess we'll talk business stuff, jim. my suggestion to you is "creed" is going to be a big philly rocky type success story. you don't need football necessarily. >> we have -- our combined teams have one win in november. flyers, sixers, eagles. thank god this month is almost over. "creed" sounds good to me. tough time in philadelphia. nothing to root for. >> thanksgiving is a great day. did you park yourself in front of the flat screen and say i can't wait to see the detroit -- and -- oh, where did he go? >> my -- my wife turned the game off. >> what's that? >> my wife turned the game off. she didn't want to see me this

upset. we had a lot of company. she said we're not going to let this ruin our thanksgiving. >> i was in shock. you know, it's nice to see detroit, the city, having a good team. at least you can think of it that way. >> i do like detroit. they won three. it's great not to see green bay win every game. great not to see new england win every game. there are things to cheer for. i think my wife was right. it could have ruined a very, very nice thanksgiving. >> so the retailers, it's brick-and-mortar versus online. i think that is the big story. >> amazon is just rolling. i'm fascinated by apple. i got an -- i got the pro. but i know a lot of people felt the watch was a big gift. i started to think amazon winner. apple winner. and i just think, by the way, the country is not as weak as

people think. bring on the rate hike. bring it on. put that past us now. >> we'll talk about college playoffs, those will be great this year. we'll talk about that. a lot of things happening. amazing stuff with notre dame, oklahoma. >> college is so much fun. >> isn't it? >> it's so much fun. you know what? chip kelly can't withhold the scholarships for the guys who don't play well. it's not about scholarships. >> all right, jim. thanks. when we return, what are you talking about this morning? there's two kinds of people in the world, some people talking about odell, others talking about adele. we'll be right back. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic

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we're having a bit of controversy about odell versus adele. i don't think it's that different. you know, odell had the catch last year that nobody else could have made. the purity and the talent there. >> artistry. >> i don't think they're that different. >> both artists. >> at a level that almost puts

them above almost everyone else. >> that was so far ahead of him to get that. >> 3.5 million records in one week. we've come together on this. more similar than different so are we. join us tomorrow. happy st. andrew's day. >> thank you. >> "squawk on the street" is next. good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. final day of november is here. stocks going for their first back-to-back positive month since the spring. what a week, we have in store. opec meeting, jobs report, yellen and more. we'll watch for headlines out of the climate change summit in paris.