liberty mutual insurance. hi, everybody, welcome to the "closing bell" on this friday i'm kelly evans. >> and i'm simon hobbs in for bill griffeth. a big rally in stocks today. erasing yesterday's losses. a solid jobs report cementing expectations that the fed will hike interest rates in two weeks and arguably the economy can take it. we will debate whether the market can add to these gains into year-end. >> former labor secretary robert reich says workers are becoming

more i'm pochb i wished. >> also a heading energy sitting out today's rally, we have someone who says more bankruptcies in the oil sector are coming, he will name names coming up on consumer. >> let's send it over to dominic chu. >> what we're watching right now are the highs for the day for the stock market, the dow is up 375 points, the s&p up about 2%. we are seeing this kind of momentum to the upside as we hit this last hour of trading. i want to call your attention to a couple different stocks so give you an idea what's playing out here story wise. right here, imt financial markets this is why newmont one of the bigger goal miners, up 8%, the best performing stock in the s&p 500. we know gold prices have been hurt over the past year or so and followed mining stocks have been hit pretty hard, still a nis built for newmont. >> bark clays, this is why

exxonmobil trades, you can see there we have actually some gains, about a half percent to the upside. it's notable because exxonmobil and a lot of oil names have been weaker for the most part of the day. you heard jackie deangelis speaking about the idea opec wasn't going to put production. oil taking a dip here. exxonmobil and chevron, sill exxonmobil actually seeing a little strength as we head towards the closing bell. we do know that financials have been a strong put in the market today, jpmorgan one of the better performers, apple doing well as well for the dow jones industrial average. if you look at exxon and chevron they are the ones bringing up the rear in terms of the perform annals. overall a very healthy day, some big things developing, kelly, simon, this idea that people are buying stocks, they're also buying treasury bonds pushing yields lower and they are also buying the dollar pushing the euro lower as well. three different things some of these stock traders are walking and talking about today, at

least for trading, some big things developing here, we will see if that play out in the last hour of stock trading. >> thank you for now. our dominic chu. >> let's get over to steve liesman with more on today's job reports and market moving comments out of mario draghi. >> the tale of the tape shows there were two engines behind today's move in the gains in the s&p. some of them came on the open in the wake of that strong jobs report, the other half after mario draghi spoke here in new york at the economic level of new york. it was clear he tried to walk back the market's negative use of the ecb's easing yesterday, he seemed to have some success leaning against the idea that the ecb was out of bullets saying there was no limit on deploying ecb tools and the ecb will respond again without delay if needed. give a listen. >> there isn't any specific limit in this, in using this. so the conclusion i think we have the -- we have the power to act, we have the determination

to act, we have the commitment to act. >> and then there was this terrific exchange between draghi and former bank of england governor mer vin king. >> was that deliberately designed to try to offset some of the reaction yesterday? >> the speech today? >> yeah. >> no, not really. not -- well, of course -- >> stocks benefitted from that. that was about 20 points. they got another 20 points from the strong jobs report on the s&p. here is the data up 211, more than expected, september/october up 35,000 with october just about year 300,000 for the three-month average of 218. unemployment rate unchanged. all of this starts a new debate, a new information. not whether the fed will hike in december, that seems pretty much in the bag but when the next hike occurs and the one after that. >> steve, you had to appreciate

the candor there. >> that was great, right? >> out of mario draghi. i mean, the humor and the honesty because, look, if the market reaction yesterday was pretty brutal to the european central bank, but today i wonder if this is precisely the reverse and just how much investors will continue to believe that he will do as he made it sound, whatever it takes. >> in our exchange yesterday, kelly, we talked about just this potentially happening, that he would like to redirect and get back and he did put some numbers on this saying all of this amounted what they announced yesterday the 680 billion euros of liquidity through 2019. you will see they didn't get back what they lost yesterday in the dollar. they got back some of it, but remember, we started out before the ecb decision at about 106 if you guys with have a two-day chart. there's the dow, but if you look at the euro, 106 going above 109 all you got back to was around

18.50, 108.70. you did get the rebound in stocks and there could have been a lot of factors there, especially jobs also at play. >> that's a point. real briefly, steve, on that note how much of this reaction do you think might be attributed to the fact that we had lowered expectations quite a bit for that report, maybe towards 100,000 and it came in pretty healthy again. >> i think that's right. that starts that debate we were just talking b kelly, that i'm sure you have some thoughts on which are, okay, so if things are going to be stronger towards 200,000 and we know as yellen said on thursday that 100,000 is what was needed to keep the unemployment rate steady does that mean the fed has to go faster or if we look at the entrance to the work force has a million in the last two months, does that tell us there is more slack out there and maybe yellen was right about that so they can go slow. >> let's get to the "closing bell" exchange today, we have ken mahoney, kenny polcari and

of course our very own rick santelli who joins us from chicago. ken, i would frame it this way today, when you say they were going to hike rates in december, today we got the justification, the idea that the economy may be strong enough for them to do that without a policy error. what do you think? >> i think so. at this point the economy should be able to withstand a quarter of a point or half point rate hike r we need to get rates up to 1.5% this time next year. we need to get some arrows in the quiver. if the economy falters we want the fed to be able to cut rates, having something to work with, not doing quantitative easing and play out of the ecb's playbook. >> now we are up almost 375, points, it points moving higher. >> i think you have to go back and look at the reaction yesterday which i think was way over done. when draghi came out in september and talked about he had this new plan and stimulus, it was everyone else, the strategists and analyst who is

came up with what that plan was supposed to be. he never defined t he just said it was going to be a newer and bigger plan. in fact, he delivered on that, the fact is that the analysts and strategists had everyone else thinking it was going to be more than he delivered. >> isn't the job of a central banker to go, hang on a minute, that isn't what i'm saying and he chose not to reign it back in. >> exactly the point. >> he was blocked by the germans. >> wait a minute. i think actually he did all the right things yesterday. he gave them more time, he gave them more assets to buy and he pushed rates lower, right? so therefore, he gave them a good plan it just wasn't what they had all expected. so they don't front run the ecb move, when they realized it wasn't what they thought it was, what do they do, hit the sell button. >> on that point, rick, how much of the rally today do you think is fundamental, that strong u.s. jobs report and how much do you think it's the central bank moves we're talking about. >> let me get this straight, is

this what you're asking me, we had 211,000 and that's spo bl for almost a 400 point in the dow. i don't think i'm buying that actually. >> i'm asking you. how much is that and how much is people reacting to the selloff yesterday and mario draghi. >> it's mario draghi and it's a weekend and it's the ft mistake in how markets moved, it's all of that but let's call if for what it is, that mario draghi talk that we all listened to today, how much was it controlling outcomes versus how is all of this, how is the unlimited bazooka going to change how many cars germany sells or all the depth in the southern economy that is still in quarantine. that's never the conversation anymore. so i think that there is a lot of things that move markets, but in the send here is what i see, we are not far from 290, we are at 2090 in the s&p, about where we settled last week, we are basically unchanged on the year

if you are an index trader you've made good egg other than your dividends and interest rates are a little higher than they closed last year. mario draghi used the word recalibration, he is trying to do what all central banks are doing, recalibrate after 7 1/2 or 8 years of a completely different underpinnings of the stock markets and markets of the world and doing all that and he is trying to control the outcome and i don't think central bankers will be able to constantly move around and be as swift as a butterfly to make this all work out in the end but at least for the moment job done, stocks are higher. >> it's not just rick saying that, either, to quote alberto al goe who knows the commission of the eu, this was yesterday saying whatever the ecb does it will have limited impact on the real economy, the main reason of the cause of this crisis too much debt and -- >> 400 point rally in the dow is not about what mario draghi was saying. it's simply more about the strength of this economy. the fact we got revisions to

last month that took the gains to 300,000 on jobs is, that's why this market is -- >> let ken go. >> we will have amnesia. some monday morning -- >> forget about the ecb or the justification for the fed raising. >> we basically are random back and forth, it's like the computer al gogorithms and it's hard for people who follow charts to want to see a break out, we just fall apart again. >> kenny. >> if we were not off 250 points yesterday the market wouldn't be up 400 today. it's a knee-jerk reaction to what happened yesterday. >> we will give that broader context here. we are probably flat on the week, gentlemen. have to go. thr thank you. >> the fbi has officially declared wednesday's shooting in california a terrorism. it was a lengthy and detailed news conference. jane wells joins us from san bernardino with the latest. jane, over to you.

>> hey, simon. 48 hours after this street was just in chaos they have found enough evidence to say this is an act of terrorism, and part of that is -- part of the evidence that has led them to that decision includes a facebook posting by the female shooter, the pakistani born wife of the male shooter, tyler mathisen, who shortly before the shootings posted on facebook her allegiance to the leader of isis. so i asked the question were these two shooters directed by a terrorist organization or inspired by t here is the response. >> were they inspired? we do not know the answer. i'm aware of the post that you've asked me about that's out on facebook and i'm aware of it, we're looking into it, but we don't know all the answers to that question yet. >> at the same time they said they got lots of information from inside the apartment where nbc news correspondence kerry

sanders went in after it had been cleared by law enforcement. they found computers, thumb drives, they also found in a nearby trash can two cell phones which had been crushed in an attempt perhaps to erase any information linking them to whatever motive it may have been, they are trying to extract and exploit the data that they can still from those things. at the same time they have also found more information about a pipe bombs these two killers made, we have photos of that there, there were 15 pipe bombs in all, we have no update on that figure since yesterday's news conference. finally they also got information released photos of a lexus, not the rented ford suv that the two shooters died in when they exchanged gunfire with police, but perhaps syed farook's lexus, inside they found shooting targets, gopro package, iphone, u-haul receipt, those sorts of things putting it all together. they now believe this is an act of terrorism. they also believe the only two shooters involved are dead. they say there are no current

threats. there are no suspects under arrest. that could change. they are asking the public if you know anything to please call the fbi. there is some concern about the other person unnamed who bought two of these weapons, all four weapons we have been told were bought legally, two by syed farook, two by another person. the fbi said they know who that person s they know where that person lives, that person was not under arrest but they would not answer the question about whether that person was in custody and being questioned. >> about 45 minutes to go here, we have quite a rally on wall street. the dow is up 377 points, the s&p adding 43. these are gains better than 2%, almost identical gains across the three major indexes, the nasdaq adding 108. >> oil is sitting out today's rally. up next we will look at how many oil companies are in danger of going out of business with oil prices hovering now around $40.

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it's a rally that's taken

the dow up now 371 points in the wake of a very solid jobs report and comments from the european central bank president mario draghi. >> gopro shares getting hit hard again today after rw beared moved to neutral. gopro trading down 4.5%. they did cut the price of their camera for the second time in five months. also ambarella did issue weak sales guidance. opec upped its oil output slightly today. we're watching to see if it cracks below $40 a barrel again. that negative impact is rippling through the owl and gas space. >> joining us andy lippo. andy, where are we going from here, do you think? are you surprised opec did so little? >> i'm not surprised.

i think they took the path of least resistance because they are not going to get cooperation from the non-opec members like russian, mexico or as ak stand, on the other hand you have iraq saying we are going to produce more next year, so i expect we're going to see a continued slide in oil prices. >> there is an argument that says they were always going to have some hawkish rhetoric going in and then they won't deliver. in this instance the fact that plans were laid or options mentioned including the saudis some way we're moving toward the position where we may be able to bite the bullet on wider cuts during the course of 2016. would you agree with that argument? >> no, i don't think they're going to cut in 2016. >> okay. >> i think opec is hoping that worldwide demand association up the oversupply at the same time production declines here in north america. >> andy, so as we look at the impact here, we're just above the $40 mark for crude oil.

how much lower could we go and for how long, do you think? >> well, i think we can easily drop another $2 a barrel next week to the lows we saw earlier this year, but the market is going to start targeting $35 and maybe even make a money at $30. so i think that's unlikely. the fact is we've got inventory all over the world, we have tankers outside of houston waiting to unload and i expected that inventories in the u.s. will go above 500 million barrels next quarter and the market simply won't like it. >> there are some producer in this country that are super efficient and they still have high margins, but others will be challenged if the price of oil stays here or continues to call. what do you see as far as bankruptcies are concerned within the energy sector here now? >> well, i think that it's a significant concern among the overleveraged oil producers that have spent a lot of money,

higher cost of drilling compared to some of the others. so i think you're going to see some bankruptcies, but a lot of consolidation in the industry. we have had reports earlier this week of felix energy looking to sell itself, looks like devin energy, one of the stronger oil producers is looking to buy and i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of consolidation occurring over the next few months. >> andy, for now, thank you. >> thank you. >> andy lippo. simon, it's the energy complex that is probably the weakest part of this otherwise strong market today. >> 39 minutes to trade and the dow is up 370 points excluding energy, all the other sectors are higher led by telecom, financials and healthcare. >> of a sflaflac has become an company in the u.s. but don't tell japan. up next aflac ceo dan amos is here and he will tell us how japan's currency is impacting

their bottom line. he has the actual duck with him. it could be an interesting interview. later, why history says the force will be with disney's stock ahead of the release of the new "star wars" movie. we're back in a moment.

a little more than 30 minutes to go in this session. a really strong finish to the week is shaping up. even with this 363 point gain or 2% across the major indexes it

could be largely flat on the session. we had big declines earlier. chipotle is one of the few stocks in the red after news broke that the e.coli outbreak plaguing restaurant chains spread to three additional states, illinois, maryland and pennsylvania, a total of 52 cases have now been reported in nine states overall. we can now report fbi director james comey and attorney general loretta lynch are giving comments on the san bernardino shooting. we will bring you the tape of those comments as absolutely soon as we are able. insurance giant aflac may be listed on the new york stock exchange but a majority of its revenue comes from the overseas, specifically in asia. >> japan making up -- i'm sorry, i'm watching the dove. japan making up 72% of the company's revenue, the u.s. only 27%. for more on how this is impacting their business aflac's ceo dan amos joins us in an consumer exclusive, he and the aflac duck will ring the

"closing bell" at the top of the hour. it will be a very clean duck. >> he takes all the spotlight always. always. >> such a nice duck. >> talk us through the business, if you would. clearly a lot of money is made in japan. >> right. >> people are slightly disappointed with the sales outlook that you've given recently. what's happening? >> one reason they are a little disappointed is because it was so strong this year. we had originally said we would be up somewhere between 1 to 3%, now it's looking like we are going to be closer to 13. so the number that we thought we would make in 2016, we're still going to make, it's just as a percentage it drops off some, but we are having a stellar year and this is our 60th year of doing business and we've been doing business in japan for 41 years and we were the first company to be licensed after the war and we got into the medical insurance business over there as a supplement and that's really what took the company off and today we insure one out of four

households in japan. >> but the weak yen is a big headache for you guys? it has been. we always look at the way we operate excluding yen. when the yen was strengthening we always said exclude it, when it was weakening. some people take that into account but we also have a dollar portfolio in japan that balances it to some degree and offsets some. >> i'm imagining most of your public appearances are with the duck, correct? >> he steals the show, yeah. >> what do you think the wife in the morning -- what do i need -- i'm going to be working with the duck again, what does she say? good luck or my word. >> always i wear a tie with a duck on it. he changed my life as you can imagine. >> and i imagine -- >> my wife has changed my life and so has the duck changed our lives. >> i hope you can handle him in contract negotiations. >> they're tough.

>> there are many ducks. >> there are many spokes persons for companies who find they end up having quite a bit of leverage. i think you guys lucked out here. >> when we build a new building they asked me all these details and i said i don't care about any of the details i just want a duck pond. >> they said what? >> i said i want a duck pond because the duck has become famous. >> just briefly turning to one of the big issues here as we mentioned you guys are smaller in the u.s., you do a lot in the work space but when we talk about health insurance talk about the supplemental business you're seeing and whether you expect further increases in that with some of the changes being made through the healthcare marketplace. >> well, i think our ability to pay claims in one day which we just started in february is really making a difference. we can pay about 70% of our claims in one day through electronic basis and that is really changing things. people have -- >> do consumers value that? are they aware of that do you think? >> they're becoming aware of

that. one thing that's happened on our scores for tv advertisements our integrity score has jumped dramatically and we relate that back to it has to be one they paid. >> before we let you go on the issue of health insurance are people looking for more supplemental policies because they can't afford their deductibles or because of changing that happened obamacare or otherwise. >> we believe they are and ultimately it will enhance our business. >> we thank you for bringing the duck, it was a pleasure. very soft and very well dee hafd. thank you to you both. >> thank you. >> time for a cnbc news update. sue herrera. >> i have never had to follow a duck before, kelly, but there's always a first time. here is what's happening at this hour, everyone. the u.s. embassy in nigeria says it has received information that groups may be planning attacks against hotels in that country that are frequented by westerners. it adds that it has no further information regarding the timing or method of any possible planned attack. the white house says president obama will sign the

five year $305 billion transportation bill that was passed in congress as soon as it arrives. the bill will also revise the u.s. export/import bank over the objections of conservative republicans. colorado theater shooter james holmes has been ordered to pay about $955,000 in restitution to the vic timgs of his 2012 movie theater rampage. it's money that will never likely be paid by holmes who is serving 12 consecutive life terms plus 3,318 years. amazon announcing it will employ its own fleet of amazon-branded trucks that will number in the several thousands and be hauled by third-party tractors. the trucks will deliver orders around the country between amazon and the warehouses. and that is the cnbc news update this hour. we will have much more on the "closing bell" in just a moment. here at td ameritrade, they're always working.

yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. i'i like to think of myself as more of a control... enthusiast. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees.

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of dying from another one. don't stop taking brilinta without talking to doctor. since stopping it too soon increases your risk of clots in your stent, heart attack, stroke, and even death. brilinta may cause bruising or bleeding more easily or serious, sometimes fatal bleeding. don't take brilinta if you have bleeding, like stomach ulcers. a history of bleeding in the brain, or severe liver problems. tell your doctor about bleeding, new or unexpected shortness of breath, any planned surgery and all medicines you take. i will take brilinta today. tomorrow. and every day for as long as my doctor tells me. don't miss a day of brilinta. welcome back. less than half an hour to go in this session, the dow holding on to a gain of 351 points, 2% gain across the averages. just in case i misspoke earlier, in the fullness of the week it looks like we are going to be roughly flat, not of course today, although anything can happen.

>> janet yellen twice articulated the rates would raise in two weeks' time more or less. >> joining us now is keith bliss from can a tone and company. why do you think we're rallying so strongly? >> i think market is very temperamental and i think hadding on central bank policy and pronouncements that's going on right now. we got a little bit of a catalyst unfortunately from the terrorism event that occurred on wednesday, but if you look at why the market continued to sell off yesterday and rally today it's either the ecb or janet yellen. >> it's rare you're put on a rally of this magnitude without something specific having happened. i would argue the employment report was strong with upward revisions to last month. >> there's lots of reasons why we would rally at this time of year, you have a lot of seasonal tack force in place, technical indicators of where we are across all four of the major indexes right now. we did a lot of destruction to those yesterday but we have managed to get back above those serious resistance lines today. what's important for next week, as long as we see the asset flows into the s&p 500 continue

to sustain, we've got to see corporate bond spreads start to contract, getting that and keep the russell up here and the nasdaq at 5153 or higher. >> we keep watching crude oil to see if it's going to breach the $40 a barrel to the down side again. >> the energy complex has become less and less of the s&p 500 in the overall market and they've lost market capitulation. we will be keeping an eye on that if oil does crater down to $35, for example, i think that has downstream effects across the entire market. >> that's why it's important to look at the performance of chesapeake down 18%, kmi down 8%, so as the tied is going out there are more questions about how exposed a lot of these companies in the energy space largely is to further pain that could have been sort of a boom range effect back on the market. >> i think more importantly what you also need to watch is

material stocks. if you look at the copper price, copper has been in a secular decline for the last five years and still trading at the lows. it's those two factors together that i will be keeping an eye on. >> what do you like most looking forward for an ordinary investor significant at home with a six-month time horizon what do you like the most? >> healthcare, that's a demographic story. >> in tech where would you go? apple, semi? >> the big cap tech stocks are good, the semi conductors are coming along. >> fbi director james comey speaking moments ago, let's listen in. -- continues to evolve and obviously we now have seen the names and faces of those victims, of the fallen and the injured and as always our hearts go out to them and let's keep them in our prayers, not just those who did lose their lives but also those who were injured in this including our law enforcement officials.

as we've always told you about this matter it is an evolving investigation. we also told you we would keep you informed about this investigation. just recently there was a press conference in the local area with the assistant director in charge of the los angeles office providing more operational details, the director is going to give you a further briefing as well. as you saw from that and as we indicated yesterday the fbi has taken the lead in this investigation, they continue to work with our local partners who are outstanding partners also along with the atf and u.s. marshals as well as we continue to investigate this. there has been a lot of new information that's come to light and the director is going to give you more insight into that. thank you all for being here today. >> thank you, madam attorney general. let me begin by echoing the attorney general's remarks, our hearts continue to ache for the people lost and wounded in san bernardino and their families and i also want to say a word of gratitude and say how impressed we were with the response of

local law enforcement in san bernardino. they were simply amazing. we are all very lucky that really good people become police officers in this country. and i also want to say a word of thanks to the folks we don't talk about much which are the people who rendered emergency care and aid, the emts, docs, nurses, those are the people who are the angels of our business and don't get the thanks they deserve. thank you to them. we're here today because we want too make sure you understand that this is now a federal terrorism investigation led by the fbi. sand the reason for that is that the investigation so far has developed indications of radicalization by the killers and of potential inspiration by foreign terrorist organizations. we are spending a tremendous amount of time as you might imagine over the last 48 hours trying to understand the motives of these killers and trying to understand every detail of these lives. we are going through a very large volume of electronic evidence, this is electronic

evidence that these killers tried to destroy and tried to conceal from us that we now have and are exploiting to tried to understand them. we are keeping our minds open as we always try to do. i know that there are a lot of good questions that folks want answers for quickly, but i hope you know about our work. we aspire to do it quickly but we most of all aspire to do it well and do it carefully. there's a lot of evidence in this case that doesn't quite make sense so we're trying to be very thoughtful to understand it and to make sense of it so we understand the full extent of what we have here. let me offer you, though, a couple specifics on the investigation. first, our investigation to date, and, again, it's only two days old, so far we have no indication that these killers are part of an organized larger group or form part of a cell. there's no indication that they are part of a network. again, i quickly add it is

early, we're still working very hard to understand but i wanted you to know that so far we don't see such indications. second, there is nothing in our holdings about these two killers. i have seen reporting where folks have focused on reports that they were in contact, at least one of the killers was in contact with people who had been the subject of fbi investigations, either investigations that were closed or that were still open. i would urge you not to make too much of that. there were no contacts between either of the killers and subjects of our investigations that were of such a significance that it raised these killers up on to our radar screen. we're obviously looking very closely at those contacts but i would not want you to over index on that just yet. it is, as i said, 48 hours old. there is much about this that doesn't make sense for even those of you who do this for a living. that is the reason we have hundreds of people running down leads all over the world on this and spending tremendous amounts

of time as we sit here trying to understand the electronic record around these two killers. let me close by saying something the attorney general and i have said before and that is we know that this is very unsettling for the people of the united states. what we hope you will do is not let fear become disabling. instead try to channel it into an awareness of your surroundings, to get you to a place where you are living your life, but if you see something that doesn't make sense, say something to somebody. when we look back over our cases over the last 10, 15 years, in almost every case we find that somebody saw something, whether it was a family member or a friend or a coworker and didn't say something to law enforcement, wrote an innocent narrative over some facts that were making them feel uncomfortable or making the hair stand up on the back of their necks. please don't do that. we have worked very hard since 9/11 to get ourselves to a place where if you tell a police officer or a deputy sheriff or call the fbi and say, you know,

i saw something next door that seems off or i saw something online that seems off, it will get to the right people and we will investigate it quickly and responsibly. we investigate in secret so that we don't smear innocent people. we don't run over and bang on your neighbor's door if you say something, we investigate. if there was nothing there, no harm done. if this was something there great harm may be avoided. so we would ask you please channel that sense of fear into something healthy, just an awareness of your surroundings and let us do the work that you pay us to do which is to investigate and fight terrorism while you live the lives that are so wonderful in this great country of ours. thank you for this and we will take your questions. >> that was the fbi director james comey speaking after attorney general loretta lynch. eamon javers is in washington. eamon. >> yeah, kelly. a couple of points there. what you are watching the fbi director do, he is talking about the fbi taking over this investigation as investigation into an act of terrorism talking

about a potential nexus here to overseas terrorist entities or persons of interest that the fbi has been looking at previously, but not identifying which organizations he's talking about there. they are not saying there is a nexus here to al qaeda or isis necessarily. fbi officials on the ground in california have been very careful to limit what they have said saying that they simply don't know a lot about this at this point and they are going painstakingly through all of the investigation and as the director said there the digital trail here is going to be so key to understanding who these murderers were communicating with and when and whether any of that represents a nexus to a broader planned attack or if this was the kind of a situation where you had self-radicalized couple, a husband and wife who simply decided to do this horrible thing on their own, kelly. >> eamon, what are you hearing behind the scenes about the response from the white house from the fbi and the thinking of the highest of levels now on the desire to obviously have a

cohesive a response as possible. >> i've been talking to several former cia veterans throughout the day about this, now we have this indication that there was a facebook message posted by the wife in this couple pledging allegiance to isis asking what that means, what the significance is of that to this investigation. obviously what i'm hearing back is that they are going to want to know every single piece of information they can get about who these people knew, who they were intact with, who they talked to to figure out whether, as i say, this was a planned attack or whether this was something that simple sli two people concocted in their own brains and dp on their own. there is a tremendous amount of evidence that the fbi has gathered on the scene including all of those weapons, all of those apparent pipe bombs that were made on the scene, one report scribing the garage of this apartment as something of a pipe bomb manufacturing factory. so who knew about that, who had access to that information, were these two people able to just

keep this between just themselves. that's going to be the very early focus of this and then following all of those trails around the country and around the world wherever they lead is going to be the next step. >> all right. eamon, for now, thank you. our eamon javers with the latest out of washington. now we turn our attention back to these markets. 15 minutes to go. dow is up 370 points and the jobs number this morning did come in stronger than expected. according to our next guest, though, technology and the so-called sharing economy is post posing a big threat to the labor form. with us a rob err reich. welcome to you. so you think all of this innovation is doing more harm than good? >> no, kelly, i think that overall, in fact, the jobs report substantiates this, the economy is doing very, very well. we are on a very big upturn, i was very impressed that janet yellen said that we only need 100,000 new jobs per month in order to keep up the population

growth. that was her latest pronouncement. that indicates that not only will the fed almost certainly raise interest rates but that in her view the economy is doing just great right now. my concern is slightly more over the longer term and that's wherein ovation and the share economy and a lot of the things we're seeing may be putting great strain on the part of the labor force that is not terribly well prepared for the future. >> and you've suggested that one way to ameliorate this for workers who no longer have access to employer finance insurance is income insurance. explain what that is and how it would help. >> i think we're going to have to over the next few years move from unemployment insurance to income insurance, which has been used in several other countries. the basic idea is that you take someone's median income over the previous five years and if their income suddenly drops because of job loss or because of sickness or whatever, you take -- you actually -- you have an

insurance policy, federal insurance policy, that provides for about half of the difference between the current wage or the current pay and the median pay over the previous five years. that would be just about as expensive as unemployment insurance, but it would do a better job than unemployment insurance because really it's economic insecurity, is a much greater factor than any other factor right now. >> to come to the central point about technology in the labor force, clearly it is -- it gives us dprart information as to what is going on and it's a great connecting force. i wonder if you think the natural state of many of these workers in that environment is to be commoditized anyway, the only way you can save that is by breaking up the market either by having maybe labor unions or some other form of intervention. are we seeing parts of the labor market for what they really are once technology let's you see further and take people in from

greater geographical areas? >> yes, undoubtedly, simon. that's been happening for a number of years. we have a large and growing segment of the american labor force that really is being priced out of the labor market. the median wage has not budgeted but if you actually dis aggregate those numbers you see that we've got about 40% of the american work force is working for $15 an hour or less. that's -- that's a large number of low wage workers and it's very hard to get the purchasing power we need over the long-term with that much of our work force having a low degree of pay. >> robert, thanks for joining us. >> thanks very much. >> former labor secretary robert reich. dow is up 355 points, still 2% gains and the nasdaq 100 points. >> is it the start of the year-end santa claus rally many investors per pettily wait for? that's next when "closing bell" returns. important than your health.

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big day here in the markets, dow is up 365 points, joining us for more is onfelenzani. welcome to post 9. there are a lot of things to unpackage. oil is almost below the $40 a barrel mark but stocks are flying. >> gold is up 25. >> the ten year is actually lower. is this because stronger economy, central bank moves or something else entirely. >> i think we're taking back what we did yesterday on draghi. i think that the market was so far on one direction, lower in the euro, we had a 500 basis point really intraday move in the dax. so you're looking at a 600 basis

point swing really that throws everything off. so that led to, you know, u.s. treasuries going down 3 points, we had a stock sell off because everybody didn't know what the heck was going on. >> i don't understand why it's so difficult to get anybody on the show to praise the fact that we had a decent employment report. >> it was 5.1%, but they rounded it down to 5%, but it was good. >> 300,000 jobs created the month above before. that's a very solid number. >> good numbers. >> it has nothing to do with the rally? >> i think it helps but i don't think that was the main reason. the main reason was people thought draghi was going to come on and say i'm still going to put the pedal to the metal if i need to so the bazooka was not off of the table. people got a little ahead of themselves expecting them to do everything yesterday. he knows the fed is going to hike 25 basis points in a couple weeks, right, so then do you

really want -- do you want to have that spread go out that much. do you want him to go so negative and then have the fed go do their hike and then you really are going to have dislocation at the end of the year. >> looking at though these markets have moved already before the fed does anything, does that have the potential to exacerbate their action or is it all priced now and might we get a move in the other direction. >> the euro dollar and fed fund futures from 2015 to 2016 didn't budge today. they're unchanged. really the market is expecting the fed to do the 25 basis point and the market usually rallies on the first hike and rallies in subsequent hikes until we get to the three steps and the stumble and then we have to start worrying. >> they can hike and it's not a policy error, the economy is strong enough. >> yes. >> we're not going to fall back when it happens. >> we've been at an emergency level for a decade almost. that is wrong. so everybody wants the fed to get off zero and that's what she's going to do. >> thank you, john. three hikes and a stumble, was that? >> three steps and a stumble.

three hikes and a stumble. three hikes and a discount rate. >> all right. thank you so much. >> go boss co tonight. met life. >> up next we're coming right back with the county count down. the new "star wars" movie is expected still to smash box office records why disney shares might be heading into hyper drive before the film is even releas released. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide.

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it was a momentous week and we have one hell of a rally to conclude it. 366 points on the the dow, two janet yellen speeches, the ecb and of course the employment report. dom chu is with me to wrap us into the weekend. >> cue mario draghi and then two janet yellen speeches. so you had two heads of the two big central banks of the world making multiple comments during the week and it added just enough volatility. with this we're pretty much going to end just around flat for the week by the time it's just about said and done. through all the volatility we've seen a lot of catalysts on the macro economic side drive a lot of the trade today and many traders talking about the oil trade, that was a huge deal from opec saying that they were not going to go about doing anything with production levels so we saw oil take a bit of a dip. as we talk about the themes developing euro a huge move

through yesterday and today and of course what's happening with yields and the market moves, energy is going to be a big trade to watch and the divergence as well between energy stocks and technology stocks this week, it's been a pretty wide gap in performance, something that's been true all year and it continued this week as well. >> energy, technology, healthcare did well, financials did well, it was fairly broad by the energy sector overall. >> correct. it was the only one that was down today. to your point energy the only sector overall for the down side. what we are going to see next week perhaps, it is the week before the big fed announcement. right now it's all but priced in, there is going to be a federal reserve interest rate. fed fund futures are implying a high probability of that happening. >> my argument would be the way that we take it is changing. we now believe they can get away with it and it's not policy error. >> you could and that's the reason why or that this market can sustain a rally economically speaking that there is enough foundation for it to happen.

that's the argument on the bull side. we haven't seen a rate hike since -- >> dom, have a good weekend. the closing bell for the u.s. marine corps toyser for tots program and aflac, the ceo the duck and the ceo's 86-year-old mother. i love that. thank you, simon. welcome, everybody, to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans and what it day here on wall street. stocks finishing with gains across the board of 2%, the dow is up 366 points. the s&p adding 41, the nasdaq adding 104. lots of debate about what is behind this rally especially with some interesting moves that accompany it. joining me here at post 9 our own mike santoli along with cnbc contributor evan newmark. for more on today's market reaction to that job reports "fast money" trader brian kelly and jeffrey cleveland. mike, beginning with you, the reason why it seems a little odd is you had stocks real seeing,

the ten year yield didn't move much, oil has been week. >> and the dollar gained back just a little bit of yesterdays losses. what it looks like now is yesterday was a very sudden shakeout, it really was people just sort of pulling back in general, we said yesterday here that we probably -- the market wanted a pretty good jobs number, it wanted the jobs number to support the idea that the fed should go in december. we got it. but if you look at the nature of the buying, the mechanical nature of it in my opinion those indexes up between 2.03 and 2.09% all exactly the same. it was just get me in, let me get exposure back because i feel underinvested that this market is going to go up without she me. we closed at 2090 on the s&p we closed last year. it's been a lot of turn. >> ultimately a flattish year and week and a lot of week looking at the federal reserve this rate hike is a done deal, right? >> i think it is a done deal. just going back to what mike

said, you had all these central bank features, mario draghi today, an opec meeting, you had the aflac duck which apparently you seem to love much more than me or mike santoli which i'm shocked by. you had all this stuff and it basically meant zero. i think the thing that i'm looking at is now on the market is going to perform over the next few days or this week or the next two weeks, it's really i'm looking to next year. a lot of what's going on right now is window dressing until the end of the year. >> what do you see in the cards next year? >> my belief is that the market is not going to go appreciably higher, i think if any sector moves higher it will be energy and it will be the commodities area, i think that would be good overall for the market. i just don't see how you get the big tech stocks, the fang stocks or any of the healthcare stocks and how are they going to drive the market much higher? the big issue for me is not the market, not the economy, it's valuation, valuation still

pretty rich. >> we've been looking at the week after today's big rally. let's bring in dominic chu and get to him on the floor with more to recap what that is just happened. >> so, kelly, let's go back to something that simon and you and i were just chatting about. this idea that we've seen a good amount of volatility but after everything is said and done if you take a look at the markets, take a look at the dow or s&p on a week to date basis you can see we're pretty much where we started in terms of -- where we ended last week and pretty much where we have been all week albeit two rather volatile days over the last couple of them. if you take a look at where the sector out performers and under performers have been. the dow industrial, s&p and nasdaq all pretty much flat week to date, but if you look at the sector specific focus of where this -- where the moves have happened, technology and telecom given today's gains are now the two best performing sectors on a week to date basis as things settle out, industrials and energy the worst. so if you talk about this

divergence that we were speaking of, technology, energy going in opposite directions that energy trade obviously being a down side momentum trade for quite some time. if you take a look overall at some of the big story lines that are developing overall, we did see throughout the course of this week a market that's kind of treading water nearish record highs but stocks like kroger and netflix over the course of the last year have hit record high levels, you can see here for kroger and netflix some really sharp moves to the upside and so as you talk about some of these story lines that are developing, yes, there are -- it's a market of stocks is basically what it comes down to. if you look at hormel, lor rocks, kroger, costco, some of these consumer names, they have been making record highs, meanwhile the energy trade, a lot of these natural gas companies, coal companies, energy overall, oil companies have been making multi-year lows. something to keep an eye on. it was a theme this week, it's

been a theme for the last quarter and last year we will see if that continues into the year-end. back over to you. >> our dominic chu. brian kelly, your thoughts on this market and what we're absorbing. >> you've got to go back to yesterday. yesterday was not an economic event at all. it simply had to do with positioning. too many people were short the euro, too many people had gotten into the long bond trade. a lot of things had to unwind. so today we're just seeing kind of the reverse of that and the market is probably correct to say we're back to flat line over the last couple days because nobody really happened economically. if we look at what happened in terms of the economy and what was released this week if you look at manufacturing, ism, that's in contraction. services ism start of the turn down but the jobs number was decent enough so that gives us this not too hot not too cold scenario and people want to get into the equity market. notice it's really -- it's in the -- the technology sector, the fang stocks, where are you

going to get growth independent of economic growth? >> this becomes the interesting question i guess an inflection point for neck year, evan, you said you are not inspired by the earnings growth. >> a lot of the stocks they have had unbelievable runs over the past year, whether it's apple -- well facebook, google, netflix, flicks -- amazon is up, it has a $350 billion market cap now. >> what does a stronger economy mean for you? >> it will justify the values that people have been paying over the past year for the stocks. it doesn't justify paying more. >> jeff cleveland on that note, stronger economy, how likely is it? yes, we had a better than expected jobs report today but remember expecting an acceleration from here? >> kelly, i'm surprised that people are not recognizing how strong the economy is. i mean, we have had 17 out of the last 23 months, 200,000 or more jobs, we have the

unemployment rate knew that's 5% and could very well be at the rate it's going 4.5% by next year. that's a really strong economy. i think people are really dismissing that and let's just keep it simple. better economy, more people employed, more wage growth, that's good for the consumer, that will be good for stocks and i think that's what's driving things today is the signs of a good economy. i think that will continue next year. i think growth will be better next year than next year. >> jeff, let me ask you this, without denying the strength in those parts of the economy that you mentioned, you could even add auto sales to all that, what about the idea, though, that the financial markets have actually been on a huge roll long before the main street economy really started to take up the slack and perform at a really high level. so can you see a continuing, i guess, phase where, you know, the main street economy, the real economy continues to improve and it's kind of already priced in? >> two things. first, i don't think financial markets have recognized this

because from a lot of investors' perspective they are expecting the weakness in manufacturing to bleed over in the economy and that just hasn't played out. people have been talking about, you know, a recession driven by the do you remember abls side and that hasn't played out. the economy remains resilient. and for me the economy continues to perform well, you can have consumer spending rise and stocks usually follow that. if you have better retail spending next year stocks will rise, if you have better earnings and profits stocks will follow that is correct it's the economy that will ultimately drive the stock market and that's what we're going to see next year, i think. >> brian kelly, do you agree? >> no. i mean, you know, so the only economic indicator that actually is doing well right now is the unemployment number, right, that's below 5%, below that. if you look back in history right before recession that's when the unemployment report, unemployment number tends to drop. now, we have seen actually the rest of the economy weaken. retail sales have been terrible,

most of the major department stores have been awful. the only one who is actually making any money, any growth, is amazon in retail. so, yes, things are slowing down and if you just look at the one picture, the jobs picture, which is fine, but the problem is that is at a trough and it tends to turn up at this point in time. you can also look at default rates on high yield bonds, those are back at 2009 highs. i'm not saying the stock market can't go up, you pump enough money into something and people want to buy it that's great, but if we're talking about the economy it is not strong. >> evan. >> i think you've got to look beyond -- even if you look beyond the unemployment rate, you look at the last three-quarters, consumer spending is running at a 3% annualized rate. that's stellar. over the last five or six quarters it's been running at a pretty good rate. we haven't seen the consumer in that good of health since the 1990s. it's more than just the unemployment rate, it's consumer spending, autos. a lot of things are splashing

really good signs right now and people are just dismissing that. we might look back in two years' time and realize how good this economy is and the only -- >> i think -- >> okay. hang on, evan, go ahead. >> the thing to look at into early next year, i think the economy is okay, i think it's doing fine, i think valuations are rich, i think what you should really be looking at is the long end of the bond market because i think if there is a tell that is going to say, do you know what, things are -- we really are normalizing as an economy, it will be on the long end and i think once you kind of take away all the mario draghi comments and janet yellen's comments that will be to see whether or not you are going to actually get -- it's hard to imagine how the u.s. stock market does really well next year and the bond market stays exactly where it is. >> that's what happened last cycle which is exactly that. everybody said, yeah, well, you have the rest of the world for various reasons is buying the long end. mike, could you have a similar outcome or argument this year. >> green span's conundrum was

exactly that. it was years of fed rate increases that did not budge. look, if inflation perks up, we already have inflation expectations baked in at such a low level, yes, you are going to have maybe a couple of scares that would get the long end up but i don't know that we are going to look at a traditional steep thing of this curve. >> we will leave it right there, guys, thank you. be sure to stick around and cast more of brian kelly with the "fast money" guys at 5:00 asking kelly mccroft what she thinks $20 crude will mean for the markets. a fed rate hike this december seems almost certain now but will the fed be one and done. barney frank and larry kudlow will debate that coming up. first, though, oil sat out today's big rally, the commodity down 25% this year yet wall street is getting more bullish on oil stocks. the top analyst will give us his picks next, you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. forls

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after opec's decision to increase output slightly. joining us now is sam margolin and he has some picks. you are rauf brave, sam, or crazy and maybe quite profound. what are they? >> i should start out by saying at $40 oil nothing is safe in in universe, but it's just a silver linings there are some stocks we like. in the large cap integrated group what you're looking for is companies that are pulling costs out the fastest. chevron and total. chevron's capital expenditures are on track to fall by 50% by 2017. a lot of that has to do with the rate of growth between now and then. mo both of those companies have right sized themselves to break even at $60 oil. it's a long way from here but it's not 80 or 90 or the levels

people were talk being a year ago when this commodity first started to break down. >> what about your other two, marathon and valero. >> so the other industry that i cover is the refining industry and that's benefited all year from lower oil prices. one of the outcomes of it is that consumer gasoline demand has been stimulated and refining margins have been some of the widest we have seen this whole cycle. valero is the pure play into that he is theme, they have had a record earnings year this year and if oil prices stay low for another 12 months we think those drivers will still be in place and refining margins can stay high. marathon is a little bit more of a diverse company and they have exposure to the upside in oil as well. their mlp just purchased an ngl business. >> natural gas. >> if oil prices stay low the refining business will benefit but if they recover sooner than expect that ngl business will recover, too. >> sam, it's adam newmark.

i have a question about the oil trade. what is the oil trade in the following sense? i mean, you're picking stocks here but really the truth is they kind of rise and fall as a group more or less depending on the price of oil. isn't the real call on oil what is going to happen in terms of saudi arabia making a move next year? won't domestic policy have saudi arabia mean a lot more than what the earnings per share is for marathon going forward? >> yeah, i mean, you're completely right. what happened today was opec came out and basically said we will see them in six months before we get any real clarity on the recovery. i read the report today, i watched the press conference. i didn't see anything signaled from opec that they would be leading any kind of recovery in oil prices before next summer. that's about when our horizon was before the meeting today anyway and so our stock sharing hasn't changed. you're right, i wouldn't expect

any tail winds from the commodity side across the whole energy complex really before june at the earliest. >> sam, in that context we're seeing the credit markets really punish the bonds of energy companies with every down tick in oil and the equities of energy companies have not suffered commensurately with that. do you think that the sector as a whole and the second wit market can continue to hold up at all when you see really a lot of carnage being priced in for the credit market? >> a lot is going to be in the hands of the banks, the banks value the reserves of these companies every year. if it looks like there's going to be a longer tail for lower commodity prices those reserves are going to have to get redetermined sooner or later and that's going to have a big impact on the equities eventually even though it hits the credit side first. i wouldn't say that the equity complex as a whole has been held up, there is a lot of companies in the oil and gas sector that are down by more than two-thirds and that's probably about right given the move we've seen in

oil, but you're right, at $40 for another six to 12 months you can see more pain. >> just briefly, sam, that's why people are a little spooked by what's happened with kinder morgan. what are you watching and how would that impact it whether it has to suspend a dividend, getting the further credit rating downgrade, et cetera, what are you watching there important? >> well, there's two sides to that. the first is the commodity pressure we're talking about but second the whole mlp space as a whole is seeing a rating lower. that could have something to do with the fed action over the next 6 to 12 months or because the commodity environment is that week and nothing in supported that well. there's headwinds coming from all sides on the mlp side and some dividend cuts are probably in order because at this point the equities just aren't getting paid to keep the dividends less. >> sam, thanks for joining us. >> kelly, the energy sector is

so hated that that's the primary reason why i like it. >> we know how you work. >> it seems -- i mean, you just -- you can't imagine the stock market going up 20% next year unless something good happens in the energy sector. >> as we've heard time and again for the long-term you always want to go to the places the people hate the most. >> unless they're retail stores. >> that's right, you don't like those. the inspectspe the connecti shooters may have been with the terrorist group. we're back after this.

this afternoon the fbi officially calling wednesday's shootings in san bernardino an act of terror. jane wells has the latest for us now. >> this street still closed off to the public, people still haven't been able to get their cars which have been marked there since wednesday but it is a day of amazing developments as the fbi officially takes charge of this investigation for this reason. >> we are now investigating these horrific acts as an act of terrori terrorism. >> these two terrorists syed farook and his wife tashfeen malik had an arsenal of weapons and ammunition and shortly before they murdered 14 people investigators say, and facebook confirms that malik posted on her facebook page her allegiance to the leader of isis, but were these two directed by isis or inspired by them?

>> so far we have no indication that these killers are part of an organized larger group or form part of a cell. there's no indication that they are part of a network. >> reporters like nbc's kerry sanders got inside the couples home today, once it had been cleared by the fbi, but in this home investigators say at the found a veritable bomb making factory in the garage, evidence the couple tried to destroy things like two crushed cell phones which the fbi says it is still hoping to extract information from. the government of pakistan where malik was born and where she was reportedly studying to be a pharmacist has expressed its sorrow and is helping u.s. investigators and now we know the names of all 14 victims. eight men, six women, the oldest was 60, the youngest 26 years old. authorities say there are currently no credible threats, no more suspects to be arrested at least for now and no other

gunmen. at the same time this afternoon, kelly, also in southern california as we speak they are having the funeral for know emmy gonzales who was murdered in the paris terror attackser >> jane, what else do we know about facebook's role in this? i believe the way we heard from the company is as soon as they saw the post it was taken down, it might have been put up there under somebody else's name or a different account from the female involved. where do things stand now with regard to facebook and any other social media flat forms that might have had information? >> well, julia boorstin has been the lead on this, she spoke to facebook which said that it was taken down -- it went up shortly before the attacks, was taken down after the attacks and that anything that expresses support for isis or terrorist groups violates facebook's policy and would be taken down. what's interesting is we are not sure how they became aware of it. who knew first.

did someone alert them to it? it doesn't sound like someone alerted them to it but that's not clear. they do have a team, you know, but you can't be everywhere at once so it's not clear how they were made aware of this posting or even how the federal officials found out about it. >> right. a lot of questions there. finally there was this bizarre episode where some of the news media was in the apartment linked to these suspects. what have the police said about that this afternoon? >> well, here is the deal. and i've been guilty of it myself after natural disasters. once a place is cleared by investigators, it goes back into the custody of whoever owns the property, in this case it's a landlord. the landlord was there apparently when people, news media and even onlookers went into the apartment. if the landlord was unhappy with that he of course could call police to have people stop fortress passing. that did not happen. but as the fbi director said, look, we were done. we left. it was not our -- it was not our

crime scene anymore, it reverted back to the owner. >> wow. yeah, jane, thank you so much. most importantly this is now being called a terrorist act. our jane wells in san bernardino again this afternoon. thank you, jane. >> seem for a cnbc news update. >> here is what's happening this hour. the "wall street journal" reporting the militant network behind last month's attacks in paris has links to people in britain. it says several people suspected of having connections to abdel ham mod a booed are based in birmingham about 120 miles northeast of london. british prime minister dominic chu said more typhoon and tornado aircraft are in cyprus ready to take action over the skies of iraq and syria and the white house said president obama spoke with cameron over the phone and they discussed the fight against isis. marco rubio calling the california attack, quote, the most dangerous terrorist threat we have ever faced. he was speaking at a republican

women's luncheon in new hampshire. and new york mets general manager sandy addison has been diagnosed unfortunately with cancer. he will undergo 8 to 12 weeks of chemotherapy. doctors say the cancer, though, is treatable and they are optimistic for a full recovery. he will continue to work for the team. we wish him all the very best of luck with that. >> kelly, you are up to date, have a great weekend, i will see you later. >> sue, you, too. breaking news on chipotle to get to now. morgan brennan pretty shocking numbers. >> certainly surprising numbers here. shares of chipotle are down more than 5% in the after hours on this news chipotle coming out with an sec filing that is lowering guidance, this is tied to the e.coli outbreak that we've seen with three more states, that outbreak extended to three more states just today by the cdc. chipotle saying that comparable restaurant sales for the fourth quarter if things continue will be in the range of negative 8 to

negative 11%. also saying that nonrecurring expenses during the fourth quarter will be in the range of 6 to $8 million. earnings per share in the range of $2.45 to $2.85 just to put that number in perspective right now estimates from the treat are at about $4.06. but they are authorizing repurchasing of chipotle common stock up to 300 million. again, tied to this e.coli situation in multiple states now chipotle coming out with comparable restaurant sales of negative 8 to 11% and another than expected eps for fourth quarter, shares are down more than 5% in the after hours on this news. what's significant about the double whammie for chipotle today is that they are telling us in this release in the days after that november 20th announcement their comp sales were down 22% for all of november they were down 16% and today we got another announcement. >> exactly.

basically they are at the mercy of headlines at this point is what they're effectively telling you. until you have this long period where you have no new ones they really can't handicap how it's going to effect the business. historically if you are an investor these food scares at chains are usually buying opportunities ultimately, the problem is and this stock was $750 a couple months ago is that it's still expensive. if earnings are trending lower you are at 27 times next year's published estimates and that's why i think people are probably a little little hesitant to bet that it's over. >> that valuation now looks even higher. >> the question which i don't think they've resolved or come up with an answer is to what extent the actual normal operating procedures the logistical processes the supply chain to what extent is that actually causing the multiple e.coli outbreaks. is it a business model question or a couple of one off cases of e ol lie and i think that uncertainty is not good for the stock. >> the fact that costco had an

e.coli episode, too. we don't know what we're looking for and where we're tracing it back to if they are related at all. >> but costco sells a lot -- costco -- >> i don't mean costco's food is -- >> all i'm saying is this is the heart and soul of chipotle's business. now, in 12 days all the speculation will be over about federal reserve, we will meet, they will debate the rate hike, we will see if it actually begins to happen. we're going to turn to barney frank and larry kudlow for an answer. coming up we're turning to cnbc's version of yoda. dominic chu on the impact of disney shares and when the force says to buy, hold or sell the stock. novating. and apparently, they also love stickers. what's up with these things, victor? we decided to give ourselves stickers for each feature we release. we read about 10,000 suggestions a week to create features that as traders we'd want to use, like social signals, a tool that uses social media to help with research. 10,000 suggestions. who reads all those?

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here is a look at how we finished, a strong session on wall street, the do you up 370 points, the s&p up 42, the nasdaq 104. now, today's jobs report seemingly giving the fed the green light for a december rate hike, the economy added 211 nonfarm payroll jobs. one and done? let's debate with cnbc senior contributor larry kudlow and cnbc contributor barney frank. gentlemen, welcome back to you

both. larry, do you think they will be one and done? >> i hope so. i mean, you know, i can even do without it this month, but i guess they are bound and determined to raise it by a quarter point. my forecast i go back a few months they will probably move at the pace of an injured snail and that's about right for me. i'd leave it there. you know, there's no inflation out there, i just want to say that, and better wages and more jobs do not cause inflation so i hope the fed doesn't go overboard with those computer models. >> mr. frank? >> well, last week larry and i disagreed violently so we make up for this week because i am in almost complete agreement. he had to take his obligatory shot at canes but there are a lot of others who feel that. i think he's already rate. at this point i agree with him that substantively there really is no need for an increase but we've reached the point in expectations where a decision not to raise would be the more

startling one. that is i think almost the status quo is to raise by 25 basis points, but that ought to calm people down for a while and remember there is a counter to this. if they were to say, no, we are not going to raise at all they would be interpreted by some as saying the economy is worse than we think. i would agree with larry that they have to do 25 basis points now just to meet expectations and not be disruptive but there is no reason to commit to go forward, they should be neutral going forward. i absolutely agree with him. there is no sign of inflation and i would note though, larry, not only you say some of the canyons, those on the conservative side who have been complaining that quantitative easing was going to be inflationary that the fed's policy of putting money out there that was also going to drive-in flags, they've also been wrong, the real economy is not producing any inflation. >> larry, it's evan. i'm going to take you back to your conservative roots here.

explain to me the path towards normalizati normalization, let's say you're right that they hit it just exactly right, what is the path going forward? when do you see a return to a 4% 30 year bond? >> oh, i don't know, evan. who knows? look, barney and i agree, there is no inflation in this system, don't doesn't call inflation, excess money causes inflation, the dollar is iz radioing, commodity indexes are falling. there is he a lot of excess reserves but they are not being put to work, the fed should go slow. as i said before it's a 1950s scenario. you had slow growth in the '50s, virtually no inflation, your interest rates, the fed discount rate was running 1 to 2%, longer term bonds in those days were running around 2 to 3%. so, you know, i think so that's where we're going. i'd love to see corporate tax

cuts that would put more juice into the economy, but basically we're fine. the fed -- this is funny. i agree with barney, the fed must act to back up what they've been talking about. it's kind of like a fed manhood thing or in this case a fed woman hood thing, all right, go on ahead and do it, but don't get carried away with it. don't look at all those models. my basic point is this, wage increases are good, not bad, i mean, up to a certain point, they're not roaring. more jobs are good, not bad. i don't think the job number today was spectacular, there were glitches in the story. gosh, the fed should go really, really, really slow. >> i just wonder -- go ahead. >> i take exception to the phrase normalization. i think that's letting the tail wag the dog. that is, we don't -- the key is not to reach a certain preordained notion of what interest rates ought to be,

interest rates serve the economy, the motion that if we aren't at 4% there's something wrong seems to me to think it backwards. interest rates should be set not because of some preordained notion of what's normal but what's appropriate to an economy that's always changing and evolving. i think that's why i don't see any negative in -- >> janet yellen did say the natural rate of interest today, barney frank, is about zero relative to what it's been in the past. >> let's not pre or dane this, let's look at it and judge it pragmatically, you can't be as certain as people would like to be. there is one other point i'd like to make about the job growth and it's only in the past couple of months, this job growth has come overwhelmingly in the private sector. we've seen this with government jobs, actually still not reaching where they were before. i think that they're due for some increase in government

jobs. what i think is encouraging going forward and it's the best thing we do for productivity. the adoption for a transportation bill, but putting people to work and improving the efficiency of our economy by improving transportation infrastructure is a hopeful sign. >> i think we're getting one. we have to go. >> one quickie in here. >> larry. >> one quickie. >> to evan's point and so forth, look, i wish the fed would let the market set interest rates, that's number one and number two, profits are looking poor and profit margins are looking poor and profits are the mother's milk of stocks and the lifeblood of the economy. investors should keep a sharp eye on profits because i'm telling you the story is not near as healthy as it was a year or two ago. >> can i just said -- >> thank you, larry. thank you, barney. appreciate you both being here. i honestly wish we had another hour. larry kudlow, barney frank this afternoon. up next "the force awakens" hits theaters two weeks from today. the "star wars" sequel expected

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yoed da, luke skywalker, dominic chu. one of these names is not a jeti but makes up for it by being a market master. dom chu is here to take a look to see if that long awaited sequel will put disney stocks in another galaxy. >> i'm honored to be up here even though i am not a jeti master.

we're just about two weeks away from the opening of that new "star wars" flick and we know it's going to be -- okay, we don't know, we can't tell the future but all the expectations are that it's going to be a huge blockbuster. we asked our data partners over at kensho to take a look at some of the stats for disney's stock because they are the ones distributing this whole phenomenon about how disney stock does in advance of these big movie openings. the statistics are pretty interesting. we took a look since 2005 at the opening films that have made at least $50 million in their first weekend at the box office. it's happened, believe it or not, 26 times, they have had quite a few good movies coming out. in the ten trading days prior to each of those releases disney stock has gone up by about 1.5% on average but more importantly, it's been a winning trade about 72% of the time so almost three-quarters of the time you can bet on them doing at least a little bit well ahead of a big opening. here is the thing, what happens when it's a blockbuster?

when it's one that makes at least $100 million. there have only been seven of those movies disney has distributed. on average the returns more than doubled over 3% on average and more impressively the stock is up 85% of the time during those instances. so it's a smaller population, no doubt, but you can't measure that many movies that make $100 million in their first weekend. you are talking about mar valls the avengers, dead man's chest, iron man 3. there are not that many in that league of films. as investors take a look at what's happening this is one of those things they may want to consider as we talk about disney's stock ahead of a huge -- what could be -- >> isn't is that the problem, i wonder if expectations go high this time that it's harder to beat them. >> that's the big question. those other movies even though everyone thought they'd do well you didn't have a three-year build up of anticipation of exactly how big this movie was going to be and people have been waiting decades for the next one. you're having people throw around numbers like $2 billion

in box office globally. this is $190 billion company right now, i don't know how much it can matter. >> evan, we're talking about a company sitting here record highs right now. >> do the profits come through the bottom line? we were doing a bit on one of these hit movies and it turned out the studio ended up making 15 cents on it. how much goes directly down to disney's bottom line. >> if you take a look at some of the marvel franchises, the captain america winter soldier, these things have a big budget, you're talking 150 to $200 million. >> that was a bomb. >> but some of these guys the return on investment for these disney for these movies is pretty huge when it comes to these block busters. yes, they are big budget but they almost always make a decent return for disney. what i would just say to put it in context, though, disney stock did move a lot more, remember, earlier this quarter on those expectations about espn subscriber numbers. this is all a big portfolio of

media for disney. >> thank you so much. up next, it's uber versus the world. ridel sharing services are teaming up. we're going to size up the plan, you're watching cnbc first in business and "star wars" worldwide. ♪ ♪ [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ [ birds squawking ] my mom makes airplane engines that can talk. [ birds squawking ] ♪ my mom makes hospitals you can hold in your hand. ♪ my mom can print amazing things right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] my mom makes trains that are friends with trees.

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welcome back. uber's massive valuation just keeps on growing. the ride hailing company said to be seeking another $2.1 billion in new fund that go would $2.1 billion in funding that would value the company at $26.5 billion. they may need it for a war chest. lyft is teaming up to take on uber. could this new alliance fight the good fight. joining us now is john helton from gray croft partners. welcome to you. >> thank you. >> how significant is we now have lyft and all of these coming together saying, uber, we're going to take you down. >> i actually think this smells of desperation. the only thing they are saying if you go to china, you could now use lyft and play in u.s. dollars and there is a sharing of technology. the number of companies that do successful international partnerships, you know, language, culture, all of those

things, there is basically no one that has pulled this off. and to me to signal that uber is winning in markets and they are trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat. >> and they haven't been winning in china. because gdp has been affect. is that a problem? >> i do think they have troubles in china. i don't think that is a -- i'm not running away from that. but the bigger issues are two things. one is labor. there is publicity around the labor practices. and if they end up having to employ all of these people, until they get into self-driving cars, that could be a huge issue. we're investored in a company called imaginagers iq and has employed driver and has get the impression of doing the right thing around that and uber if there are changes around that, will have a tough time. >> when you see the valuations of $62 billion and the rule for

the fast-growing start-ups is the first product is the overture and the real stuff is to come. you mentioned self-driving cars. what is the opportunity people are anticipating when they put a value like this on this company? >> it is interesting. i don't have a car. i ride my bike to the train station. i hate driving. so i think the future is self-driving cars. and that will dramatically transform how we live. there will be less traffic because you could move people through automated cars. and streets will be less. we devote an incredible amount of space to cars. so i think the future for uber, they are in the best position to define it from a technology perspective. and i think it will just fundmentally change how we do things. >> i'm not -- i'm not in the uber heaven or whatever you would call it right now. i think $62 billion is crazy money. and people talking about driverless cars. there are other people that could do driverless cars.

i don't see, for the current business, that uber is good at, what are the barriers to entry. there are a lot of competitors. there are low barriers to entry in the share. >> but the argument is it is what books was to amazon. that is all you are doing. you are just a book store. if you went to be optimistic about it, that is what people are trying to do it. >> you could be optimistic all you want. but if you are putting a $62 billion value on something and everything goes right. what are you going to make double? three times your money. >> five times if you got to amazon. >> you might be waiting a long time. >> i think a lot of people think the public market where the s&p going to grow minus 3% in the fourth quarter and looking for growth and uber and big private companies are places they could find growth. >> it is called desperation. i'm serious. there is a lot of private equity and hem fund money that is desperate to find a place to go

back to investors. >> we are values in all of the kpetors. >> i got into uber, it is $62 billion and i'm in the ground floor. >> and you could be right. >> and they said that about facebook at $500 million. >> we'll see. i'll happily go back on the show in five years to see the $600 billion valuation. >> in uber. >> thank you very much. we have to get to a news alert on canadian pacific. morgan, what is happening. >> issuing a press release in response to norfolk southern's rejection of the proposal to merge or for takeover proposal earlier today. so canadian pacific saying they are rejected the $28 billion proposal and it takes exemption to claims misdirection and mischaracterizations of the offer. they plan to hold a conference call to discuss this on tuesday. keep in mind, norfolk rejecting the $28 billion offer or takeover offer this morning. calling it grossly inadequate.

if you look at shares of both of the stocks in after hour, they are trading flat. thank you. >> thank you, morgan brennan. more bad news for chipolte in the last half hour. the company slashing the outlook as the e-coli outbreak expands. and later here from the deutsche analyst who put a price on the stock earlier today and what she thinks. you've read all of my lyrics? i can read 800 million pages per second. that's fast. my analysis shows your major themes are that time passes. and love fades. that sounds about right. i have never known love. maybe we should write a song together. i can sing. you can sing? do be bop. be bop do. do be do be do. do do do be do. why pause to take a pill when a moment spontaneously turns romantic? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom?

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welcome back. chipolte shares falling further after hours. the fast food chain just lowered guidance as the e-coli outbreak was linked to more states today. and the shares down after hours. and to reiterate the numbers, after the november 20th announcement from the cdc were down 22%. last month the comps were down 16%. the problem again, mike, is that today we have another new announcement about new states affected. >> that is with a few dozen stores closed for a while. that will hit your comps. but this is something we can say we think we figures this out and got to the end tv and the street is not going to give them credit for having their arms around it because the reports keep coming in. >> and they think fourth quarter will be minus 8% to 11%.

>> that is a lot for a fast-growing stock. >> exactly. >> the problem with the growth stocks and this doesn't apply to just chipolte, any growth stock, when you start taking down the revenue growth, it goes -- the valuation deflates like a balloon. >> and right. and so the issue, until it is resolved, while it is a company issue, that is a problem for them. they also talked about how they don't anticipate any impact to new restaurant openings during the fourth quarter of 2015. but again, everything that they've said in the release today was -- has to do with the first set after announcements and not with the additional detail. >> but the context too, it is down $200 since mid-october. it has been punished already. so at some point people will be betting this is it. >> yeah, you know, the problem is with the growth stocks, think of valeant, which is somewhat different thing. but these stocks, once they go through the massive rerating, it is hard to get them to go back up again. >> thank you for joining us on "closing bell." it is time now for "fast money" beginning with melissa lee and

the gang. what is on tap. >> you are talking about chipolte. we have the deutsche bank analyst who just cut her price target to 525 on the back of the e-coli outbreak and with the comp forecast coming down, it is a great time to talk to her. >> it is. straight over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now. overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee, your traders are dan, brian, karen and guy adami. tonight on "fast," oil below $40 a barrel as opec will not cut production. who is winning the oil war now. we have the details. and the yahoo board meeting coming to an end and a shareholder holding $75 million worth of stock. he's not happy. why he has lost all confidence in the board. and later, chipolte hitting a new year-to-date low after the company cut the guidelines and why one analyst thinks it might be more of a problem than you think. but one of the