the catalyst for a lot more of what pete is looking for, volatility. >> it's a couple energy names that have been doing the real good for you lately. >> yes, it is. one month from now we'll talk about weather, by the way. >> there you go. "power lunch" begins now. and welcome -- >> go ahead. please. >> thank you. >> please welcome everybody. >> welcome to "power lunch," everybody. we've actually flipped this around for once. just to mix things up keep people on their toes. >> i'm mandy drury and this is tyler mathisen. welcome. >> welcome. >> oil we're going to talk about. it's continuing its slide hitting the lowest level in six years. where, folks, is the bottom? many analysts are confident of a rebound in 2017. why that may not be likely and what would that mean for the big energy names? energy the top performing sector this hour.

>> and check this out. looks like something out of "star wars." it's actually the navy's super high-tech stealth destroyer. you supposedly can't see it, i guess, and it could be a major game-changer for the u.s. military. the commodities crush, folks, oil continuing under pressure today. wti crude hitting fresh lows going back to february 19th, 2009. you weren't even here in 2009, were you? >> i was not in the states. >> you don't even remember this then. it was way back before your time. >> it was. >> $36.52 a barrel. now $36.87. price is down 10% over the past one week, down 30% this year. jackie deangelis has watched it all from nymex, which is where we find her right now. jackie. >> good afternoon to you, tyler. i have very logical reasons for the downside pressure we're seeing on crude oil today. opec out with its monthly report. a 230,000 barrel increase in the month of november. this is taking total production

to 32.7 million barrels a day. this is a fresh three-year record for opec production. so it's no wonder that we're seeing this pressure today. iraq actually was the outlier there pumping more oil than normal. add to that the fact that indonesia is joining the cartel and also the iranians chomping at the bit to get their oil online. this is all just going to contribute to the glut that we already have in the marketplace. the dollar being a little higher today certainly not helping. that is a bearish factor as well. the bottom line here is we keep testing these new lows until we test them and finally hold there. you don't have new buyers coming into the market here because there is a lot of uncertainty and momentum indicates that most people think there's more downside ahead. so to answer your question from the get-go here, have we reached a bottom? consensus here is no. >> we'll check back with you later on and the oil close will be during "power lunch." stocks are posting gains this hour. let's take a look at the numbers there. we're off the highs, and energy

stocks are certainly on the move in particular, and we've got triple digit gains for the dow as we speak, let's get to bob pisani from the floor of the stock exchange. what's driving markets today? >> well, it's very encouraging to see oil down and most of the energy stocks are up. in fact, a number of beaten up sector this is year are on the upside. so you know how bad metals and mining have been all throughout the year? that etf is on the upside. that's the xme. we know how bad oil production stocks, exploration and production stocks, most of them down 20%, even 30% on the year. with oil down today, that xop up 1.6%. that's encouraging. most natural gas stocks are also having a tough time but there you see that one up as well, fcg on the upside. we spoke of the tendency of stocks to sell off in the middle december. they sell their losers but then start outperforming as people start buying the losers for the new year. take a look at the transports, united continental, avis, fed ex, c.h. rodriguebinson, all do

the year. it may be a little early. put up some of the industrials. i'll be really impressed if we put together a few strings of up days for these big losers like caterpillar, paccar and dove corporation. maybe have more on it next week. finally, that's some sectors that never seem to rally including the utilities. a number of new lows in some questions like public service. the utilities down 10%, 15%, 20% on the low and that's a new low for public service. >> just a quick question for you, bob. we're less than a week away from finding out what the fomc is going to do with rates next week. what's the feeling on the floor because we hear all the number percentage chances of a hike being tossed around like 85%. have you met anybody on the floor who is not expecting a hike? >> art cashin has been holding

the line for the last six months. he thinks it's unlikely it will happen although he concedes he's in the minority. they obviously want to do something and feel the longer they wait, the steeper the glide path is going to be, the process by which they eventually raise rates again and again. i tend to agree with that. >> what is art's reasoning for not expecting a hike though? >> he thinks the economy is too weak and the markets do not feel there's enough rationale. just because employment is better the overall state of the economy is not. >> conocophillips is the latest giant to slash its spending for 2016. the stock has been moving higher but it's down about 30% this year. morgan brennan, give us more details on this. the late nest a long line of companies in that space that are

either suspending or slashing dividends or cutting cap ex plans. the fallout is continuing. >> exactly. just to put this in perspective, we've been getting reductions in cap ex from conocophillips since this time last year every single quarter. so the spending cuts at conocophillips for 2016 as oil and gas prices stay lower for longer are expected to be steep. 2016 cap ex budget of $7.7 billion. that's down 25% from an expected $10.2 billion this year and down a hefty 55% from 2014. now, operating costs will also be lower. $7.7 billion there as well or 20% below 2014 levels, but production is expected to keep growing as several major prozwreprojec projecting come online. that's expected to be up 1% to 3 3% in 2016. on an investor call this morning, executives spending a lot of time assuring analyst that the dividend, which currently yields 6%, is the

company's, quote, top priority and that it will be able to maintain that. so this on the heels of another oil giant, chevron, announcing a 24% cap ex cut next year after the bell last night. you take a look at shares of both of those companies, conoco fill liphillips and chevron, th both up 2% today. >> over to you, ty. >> morgan, thank you. news alert in the bond market. 30-year bonds up for auction. rick santelli tracking it. yesterday's 10-year was a c plus. how about the demand for the 30 years? >> we gave it b as in boy. 58 billion in supply comes in the form of 13 billion 30s reopen so technically 29 year 11 month securities. the yielded auction 2.978. darn close to where it was trading when issued. a little trading in the middle.

2.42 bid to cover. $2.42, chasing every dollar's worth of securities available. above the 2.33 10-auction average. 63.9 on indirects. i went back to 2000 and i found two numbers higher, september of this year at 66, february of 2006 at 65.4. that's a whopper of a number. 10.4 on directs not too far below 10 auction average. dealers take about 25.7% of the auction. so b on the final leg of $58 billion and at the bottom of the hour we're going to be talking diamonds may be forever, but the finance minister of south africa isn't. we'll be looking at all that at the bottom of the hour. in andy, tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. quite a tease there. this is the future, ladies and gentlemen, of america's military. jane wells live with incredible new pictures of the navy's new destroyer. hi, jane. >> hi, tyler. yeah, it's unlike any ship you have ever seen since the civil war. take a look at this video.

it doesn't even look real. it's the "uss zumwalt" on i said maiden voyage. a 610 foot long destroying built by general dynamics ironworks. the hull has raised eyebrows because it slopes inward. it may look like a fishing boat on the radar. it w-- because of the spiraling costs, the navy has cut its order from 32 to 3. maybe only 2. even so, the new technology may become standard, including a new electrical power system and it will be a test bed for new weapons like an electromagnetic rail begun that can launch projectiles at mach 7. some say it's reminiscent of the

"uss virginia" built in 1862 on the old hulk of the "uss merrimac." not james tie beerous kirk but james kirk. isn't that amazing. >> but a captain kirk nonetheless. >> yes. >> seema mody for a market flash. >> good afternoon, tyler. shares of u.s. steel nearing session highs up over 10% and a top performer in the russell 1,000. this after a more than 11% gain yesterday. the stock is moving higher today on news that china plans to ease its stale expoeel export tariff. shares are off 67% as steel prisses continue to decline. >> i think in the month of november the stock declined by 40% so a comeback there for u.s. steel. republican presidential candidate donald trump's business partners are under fire over his latest comments about

muslims. how trump for president is impacting trump the brand. you're watching cnbc and we are first in business worldwide. proud of you, son. ge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other.

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welcome back to "power lunch." jcpenney shares are currently sitting flat with a downside bias. the department store chain upgraded from neutral.

the firm raising its price target from $9 to $8 saying jcpenney has a lot of opportunity for top line growth and margin expansion under the new ceo but not helping the shares as we speak. toll brothers raised to sector perform by rbc. raising the price target to $37. and yum brands is lower. the fast food company says same restaurant sales in china fell about 3% in november. same-store sales fell 1% at kfc and 9% at pizza hut. remember, yum brands is moving to separate the chinese business by the end of next year. tyler? >> thank you, mandy. republican presidential candidate donald trump getting a lot of heat over his call to ban the entry of muslims into the united states. his words causing his business partners in some parts of the country and the world to come under fire. eamon javers is looking at what trump for president is doing to or for trump the brand. eamon? >> reporter: yeah, that's right,

tyler. we're starting to see a global brand backlash here for the trump organization in relation to the comments he made earlier in the week about muslims not being allowed to come into the country. take a look at these pictures here. this is a facility in dubai that was partnered with donald trump and proudly displayed his brand in the before picture but in the after picture what you see this week, they've taken the donald trump name often of that facility. it is bad for business in the middle east. also around the world we're seeing similar blowback, including a religious coalition in connecticut asking for the trump name to come off of a 35-story tower in stanford, connecticut. we're seeing crews in dubai removing the trump name from billboards there, also in vancouver a councillor wants to remove the trump name from a downtown office condo tower. in the middle east we're seeing chains barring the trump home products in the uae, kuwait, saudi arabia, and qatar. here in the united states meanwhile, we're getting mixed reaction as we talk to people outside of some trump facilities in manhattan.

here is what they had to say. >> i cringed when we moved in here three years ago, so i definitely cringe now. i'm proud to live at trump place. i think donald trump has done a brilliant job with building what he's built here and i have been proud to know him and his family, and i think he's a great american. >> reporter: i talked to brand expert mike jackson in los angeles and i asked him just how much damage here has been done to the trump brand. >> any other brand that would have come out and had a prolonged dialogue that evoked the type of emotion that trump is evoking, you would say that it would have a significant, if not devastating, impact on the brand. so while i can't say if it's 50% or 75%, i kind of look at the damage being 100% and maybe irreparable as we move forward, but only time will tell. >> reporter: one of the things that mike jackson said about this though is that moving

forward for the trump organization to repair its brand, one of the things it might consider doing is pulling donald trump back out of the public limelight after his presidential campaign and pushing forward ivanka trump, his younger, more attractive, and less controversial daughter, sigh l tyler. >> stay with us if you don't mind. let's bring in robert frank to ask the same question. is donald trump hurting donald trump? >> you have to divide his empire into parts. this will help certain parts and hurt other parnts. if you look at the resorts and real estate business, it's going to be a long time before we see any impact on that business. i mean, the people who buy condos, they already know who donald trump is. the part that's going to be more interesting to see is the entertainment brand licensing part. that was "the apprentice," his partnership with macy's, the water. all of these products. that's the side that i think will really take a hit. we have to balance that with the fact that when this is over,

however it goes, his ratings appeal is going to be as strong as it is now. what he's proven through this is he can draw a huge audience no matter what he's saying. >> eamon, do we know anything about bookings at his golf courses, at the trump doral in miami? do we know anything yet on that? >> caller: we don't, but i talked to mike jackson about that, and he said in his opinion anybody who is doing a deal right now to put trump's name on a golf course or a hotel anywhere around the country, like this one, this is the old post office building in washington, d.c., a prime spot on pennsylvania avenue, jackson said anybody doing one of those deals right now is probably putting the brakes on that deal waiting to see how that plays out. >> but i want to say, i was just in palm beach on monday talking to many members of the club, people who live in his buildings who are democrats many of them and i said how could you go

there when he says what he's saying. they said trump has always been trump. we know who he is and yet we've been members because we enjoy the facilities, we enjoy the golf, and we've always known who donald trump is. so i don't think it really -- >> and a lot of people buying those products are not necessarily the people who are offended by his comments. we've been talking to a lot of people out here today who are saying, you know what? i don't like donald trump, i'm offended, i think its racist. we said have you ever bought the shoes? have you ever bought the ties and they say no, never have, never will. those people might not have been gettable for donald trump anyway. >> thank you very much. an ongoing story i am quite sure. >> health care continues its run, ty. it's up 4% this year. where are the opportunities? well, this is fast becoming a game-changer in the sector. we'll tell you all about it and the companies that are leading the way. also as we head out, check

out of the biggest players in the health care space. united health, aetna, humana, express scripts all moving up by 1% or more in trades so far today. stay with us on cnbc "power lunch." at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.

welcome back. thanks for staying with us on "power lunch." let's get back to the bond market where professor rick santelli is tracking all the action at the cme. how is the bond market looking like after the b graded 30-year

auction? >> not a huge change in any of the setup. we say rates maybe just inching up just a little bit, but you really need a magnifying glass as you look at the intraday and two-day of 30-year which we just auctioned but maybe the big talk continues to be about the adjustment process in front of next week's suppose d rate hike. brics like china have had a horrible time. they have to sell reserves to help support their currencies. south africa finance minister, adios, didn't work out well. if you look at the charts of the currency, whether you look at a 1-year for a 20-year, record lows versus the dollar and it isn't only that. maybe the bigger picture is yesterday their 2-year close, 112 basis points, lower than it is right now as it approaches 8.75. around the credit crisis time it reached 11%. the dynamic of emerging markets trying to deal with this

adjustment is ongoing and my guess is you're going to hear a lot more stories like this in the litany of other emerging markets as we get prepared for that two-day fed meeting. back to you. >> all right, rick. thank you very much. let's take a left turn and talk a little bit about genome sequencing. it's become a game-changer in health care. what role will it play in the future of medicine? who does it cost? our pharma reporter meg terrell is here. you had your own genome sequence, right, meg? >> i did. and i actually did it in two ways. the first was what's called whole genome sequencing. that cost $2,900 and i did it with the help of a clinician. the second way i did it was through a consumer product through 23 and me which costs $199. that's a totally different option for people who are curious about their genes. >> part of the reason that we started 23 and me not as a company going through the traditional medical system is because i felt like genetic information was being adopted so

slowly that if we just waited for it to be adopted in the traditional sense that it was going to take decades, and i think that because consumers, and i think this entire consumer health care revolution is empowering individuals to say i actually wanted to be in charge of my health and i want to take ownership. >> now, it won't return the same health information i got with my illumina full sequence, at least not yet. you get a kit, deposit half a teaspoon of spit in the tube, seal it up and drop it in the mailbox. 23 and me analyzes the dao that and sends you an e-mail telling you your results are ready. then you get information on everything for everything from clue on wellness to traits like eye color and you also get what's known as carrier status. these are 36 diseases caused by recessive genes. that means if you only have one copy, the disease won't turn up in you, but you could pass it on to your kids if your partner also has it. 23 and me has fda authorization to provide this information.

just a couple months ago it started offering these results after the fda made it stop returning health information in 2013. 23 and me provides less health information than it did before. you don't get information about your own risk for disease. the fda was concerned about how consumers would interpret that information without a physician's guidance. whether everyone should get a full genome sequence is a totally other question. we'll explore that later in the second half of "power" and on "the closing bell." >> did the two reports similar overlap or differences and are you going to be okay? >> i will be okay i think anyway. but the two tests are pretty different at least in terms of what they bring back. the illumina test is much more comprehensive. it can give you back more health information about things you may be predisposed to get at some

point in your life or as the 23 and me test doesn't give you that kind of information, at least as of now. but they're both very, very interesting results. >> but it did tell you what your eye color is, right? >> yeah. although i found my eyes were green and 23 and me says i'm very unlikely to have green eyes. >> all right. meg, thank you very much. meg terrell. >> i'm in the ignorant is bliss camp. i'm not sure i want to know anything. that's my approach to going to the dentist. don't go because you don't want to find out anything bad. we're bouncing back from three days of losses. the dow is up by 113 and next week is a really big one for you, the investor. many betting on a rate hike. what will be the likely path for future hikes? we have a full playbook for you. plus -- >> today's powerhouse is home to 12 fortune 500 companies. it is nicknamed the city of lakes. and it is america's third most bike-friendly city. can you tham that city?

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is your cnbc news update for this hour. president obama signing into law the education bill calling it a christmas miracle. he praised democrats and republicans for coming together to change the way teachers are evaluated. the new law gives more decision making powers to the states. australian police charging five people, including a 15-year-old boy, for an alleged terror plot in sydney. 20-year-old ibrahim gazaway was arrested and charged with conspiracy. his 15-year-old conspirator was charged with the same. walmart pay is being introduced at select wall part stores. it allows customers to pay for their smartphones. walmart is the only retailer to offer its own mobile payment solution. and an unbelievable shot by a minnesota high school basketball player in a conference title game between northfield and austin. down by two points with 1.6 seconds to go the austin player rebounded a missed free throw

and threw the ball the length of the court. it gave austin a one-point victory. that's the cnbc news update at this hour. that's a play my son has to perfect. >> nothing but net. >> isn't that awesome? >> i'm showing him that tonight. >> give him a lifetime contract. one more time. oh, my goodness. >> that's pretty amazing. thanks, sharon. the dow up triple digits. let's get to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> it's not so much the dow is up triple digits, it's what is leading the dow. let's take a look and it's energy stocks. oil broke below $37 this morning and everybody said, oh, no, another day like this but the energy stocks are up with oil down. that's a good sign. it's not a trend yet but let's hope at least it will continue. chevron, exxonmobil are the two market leaders. chevron is the bagest gainer on the dow. occidental, total, all the big guys are up. even when oil starts dropping,

you will see apache and consol, all those names in the downside. but we have nas movice moves to upside. now, on to the fun part. my annual interview with art cash cashin, bobby van's steakhouse. we talked about a lot of different things but most importantly we talked about 2016 and the federal reserve and the question on everybody's mind, will the fed raise rates? >> i think as of now they're certainly going to try in december. that will be about a week past the time we're taping this. however, we've had a very eventful month and a half. we have not had two back-to-back up days in the s&p. that's highly unusual, and it usually presages a difficult time for the market. so we're going, the fed is, in their silent period now. they're going to have their meeting. they're kind of committed to

raising rates, and if things blow up, they have no way to tell the world, hold it, we want to change our mind. >> where wha do you think the glide path is going to look at? one of the things they've emphasized is they're not looking to raise rates aggressively. >> even beyond what i feel, the fed fund futures market for december of 2016 shows a fed funds rate of under 1%, about 0.86%. so for all the talk they're going to raise it once a quarter, they're going to do whatever, most markets don't believe that's going to be the case, and i think part of that is based on the fact that people think this economy is still weak enough, unstable enough that when they make this move, they're not entirely sure where things are going to go. >> so are you in the one and done camp? i have been all year? >> as of now, as you know, for much of the year i believed they wouldn't raise rates at all. i think they've gotten themselves boxed into a corner,

okay, and while everybody talks about 25 basis points is inconsequential, it's a problem. larry summers has pointed out that if you begin to see a slowing that could lead to a recession, historically the fed has got to lower rates three whole basis points. we're still at zero. if we go up a quarter of a point, they don't have much room. >> and there's lots more on my interview with art cashin. we talked about oil in 2016. we talked about the profit recession and whether that will continue, and, mandy, we talked about global hotspots and some unusual places that might really affect your stock portfolio in 2016. that's all up, cnbc.com and it's always great fun to sit with art across the street with as we call it the friends of fermentation across the street. >> yeah, and i'm sure when you're talking about global hotspots you don't mean swapping vacation plans, right? >> no. he's not into that. he's into watching some of the spaces that might affect your stock portfolio. very interesting discussion.

>> i thought so. great. thank you very much, bob. so how do you invest if the fed starts to raise interest rates? joining us now jeff kleintop from charles schwab and rich weiss from american century investments. thank you very much, gentlemen, for joining us today. jeff, a quick comment on a very short-term intraday trade, you've got wti slightly lower. stocks, including energy stocks, moving higher. are you encouraged by the decoupling we're seeing and is it something that can continue? >> not yet. i mean, you know, i think a lot of what we're seeing in the sector is questions about what doctor sort of what's the next round for many of these energy companies? we believe it will be years before demand catches up to where supply is in the energy sector. i think it will be quite some time of difficulty in that area, and what is the long-term end game? are there m&a deals going on? what are the assets really worth? i think there's a lot of questions right now trying to figure that out and that means some volatility, but i think it's quite a while until we see

that turn around. >> talking of volatility, what's when and if the fed starts hiking rates? a number of people are wanting it to happen to kind of get it out of the way, remove some of the uncertainty. is it guaranteed it will be smooth sailing though? >> no, i don't think so. i think the attention shifts to, well, when is the next meeting? just in the discussion between pisani and cashin, talked about how many rate hikes will there be next year? i think the attention just shifts and the volatility remains for the markets. the good news is it may be good for one sector in particular, and that's financials. it's the cheapest of the cyclical sectors. we're seeing better loan demand but the key is they make money on market volatility. that might be one of the safest bets for 2016. >> rich, you like financials as well. are there any particular and do you have a playbook for next year amid a hiking fed? >> oh, yeah. well, definitely, we see a shift next year from growth stocks which have done so well this year and we've ridden that wave,

technology and health care chief among those sectors. likely to move over to the value sectors next year, including primarily financials and some other interest rate-related sectors. as we see a shift in fed policy, we're likely to see a shift in this economic cycle from late cycle sectors, from the growth sectors, to early cycle sectors including financials, and that's where we will likely be placed. maybe a little early right now. we'd like to have a little more visibility into fed policy before we make that shift though. >> none of us have visibility because none of us know what the fed is going to do and i don't think the fed knows at this stage exactly what it's going to do, rich. but what do you think they will do? >> well, if you look at the fed dot plot, they're still indicating a handful of rate hikes next year, however the market, as art cashin mentioned, is clearly discounting only one or two at most rate hikes which, of course, would indicate a weaker than expected economy and which would indicate that value stocks are the right play for next year.

so the strategies that did so well over the past year, the go go high beta small cap joriente strategies, not necessary liz going to do well. you want to look for downside protected funds for next year. >> rich, jeff, always good to speak with you. and you can also go to powerlunch.cnbc.com to see jeff's thoughts on recession risk in 2016. make sure you check it out. ty, over to you. >> mandy, when japanese carmaker honda announced plans to build a jet, did it back in 2004, analysts predicted the small plane would be a huge hit. last night the new honda jet was approved by the faa, but the $4.5 million seven-seater takes flight at an uncertain time. phil lebeau is at a private airfield in detroit? >> reporter: a lot of people are wondering if honda will be successful in a volatile field

like business jets. the price tag $4.5 million. that's basically competitive with other entry-level business jets. it carries up to six people, not including the pilot. and more than 100 have been ordered. who are their competitors? some long-time players in this market, cessna and amber among them. bis jet sales up 3.5% but that's a competitive and volatile market just recovering from the recession and analysts say it will tough for honda. >> if they ultimately want to succeed, they will have to spend a lot more money and come up with more new products against two very tough competitors in the most price competitive niche of the market. so i would say the chance of success is not that high. >> reporter: honda jet is built in greensboro, north carolina. they're targeting odelivers of

four to five a month. people have been asking all day long what else does honda build besides cars? a lot of things. business jets are just the latest market. more than three-quarters of the business is are autos but you also see their business in motorcycles, financial services, and those other products like lawn mowers, generators, and to that you can add business jets. tyler, the honda jet is now open for delivery. we'll see how successful it is in a very competitive market. >> thanks very much, phil. mandy, over to you. >> make sure i get you one, ty, for christmas. take a look at some of the biggest names in metals and mining. stillwater, alcoa, all down by 35% or more this year. we're going to talk to one trader, however, who believes a major mining company is nearing a bottom. we'll tell you which one it is. plus -- >> the city in today's powerhouse is home to general

mills headquarters. peanuts comic creator charles schulz was born here and the mall of america can be found here. can you name that city?

welcome back to "power lunch." shares of lending tree up nearly 11% as bank ever america upgrades the stock to buy. recent weakness has made a favorable risk/reward scenario. the stock which was a $1.5 billion market cap is down 15% in the last month but is up 110% for the year. >> that's a great gain. thank you very much. i'll take that any day. let's check out the action at the nasdaq where we find bertha coombs with the latest there. what's driving trade today? >> we are seeing pretty much an overall move to the upside across the board on the nasdaq and all of the sectors, but gopro having great karma.

the stock surging after announcing you will be able to control the cameras via the apple watch. that's spurring some speculation apple could buy the sports came cameramaker. meantime, twitter another former high flyer today moving higher, seeing its biggest daily gain in two months. it's looking to serve up ads to people who don't log into twitter. the big cap momentum names, the f.a.n.g. players, are mixed. no boston from the golden globe nominations for amazon or netflix. another stock that we've been watching moving higher, smith & wesson. this stock has been on a tear. today at a historic high. right now just off of that but hitting a historic high, tyler, above $23 a share. >> all right. bertha coombs, thank you very much. let's move to the powerhouse, home to the city of lakes. we are headed to a great city, minneapolis. the najarians know it, we know it. with us today john schuster of

coldwell banker burnett reality. let's check out some stats on minneapolis. menianian sale price, $216,000. inventory, three months. properties are listed for an average of 70 days. first listing 395 bear avenue south. 320 grand. taxes just over $4,000, four beds, four baths, 2,800 square feet of living space. tell me about this one, john. >> this is a new listing of ours in a northeast suburb of minneapolis and st. paul. this beautiful two-story has been updated throughout and sits on a large lot with mature trees. you can enjoy the main level family room addition, a vaulted season, skylight, hardwood floors. this is a fabulous price for a great home. it's cold this time of year in minnesota but our real estate market is hot. we've seen a double digit price increase over the last two years and our market continues to heat up. >> look at that. but still very affordable at least by east and west coast

standards. let's move to the second listing, john, at 16915 49th place north. they're asking $550,000, 7,000 in taxes. this is a big one and maybe closer in? >> this is a pocket listing we have coming to the market just after the holidays. plymouth is a western suburb and it was named the number one place to live by money magazine a few years back. this is your chance to feel like you're always on vacation. this executive townhome sits and overlooks the golf course and it's also part of an award winning school district. you can note the breath-taking finishes throughout this property that showcase an up north cabin feel with custom knotty pine finishes. >> let's go to our house of the week. 10154 wild duck pass. you don't have names like that, do you, brian, in new jersey. wild duck pass.

not very many. $799,000, $8,200, taxes. four beds, four baths, 5,169. that's a nice one. even i know eden prairie. i have been there. love it. >> if you're looking for a luxury custom home in a great neighborhood, this home is for you. eden prairie is a southwest suburb of minneapolis. it was also named the number one place to live by "money" magazine in 2010. fabulous school district. this one is a jaw dropper. spectacular finishes. you got custom millwork, rich walnut coffered ceilings. truly a one of a kind masterpiece. i want to thank you so much for showcasing minneapolis and st. paul. otherwise known as the twin cities on "powerhouse" today. >> thank you very much. we'll be back. love minneapolis. a great place. people go there, they love it. >> come and visit us.

>> save one for me. mandy, over to you. >> i don't think you'd find too many wild duck passes in manhattan either. maybe some wild luck passes or wild buck passes. i don't know but not wild duck. let's give you the very first look at today's mystery chart. this is the first clue. right it down. the stock is up nearly 75% year-to-date. we'll reveal the answer in the next hour along with hopefully a couple of other clues. brian sullivan, what else is coming up in the next hour of "power" apart from me? >> we'll see you there for it as well and you know what else doesn't exist in this area? those taxes. >> those taxes do not exist. >> seven grand. that's like a month of taxes in new jersey. amazing. loves minneapolis. the jayhawks, first avenue. coming up in the 2:00, more on oil's continued collapse and why the six-year low headlines you're hearing aren't telling the whole story. plus, how to make money on a company associated with kate

upton, and your guest analyst says nothing is wrong with walmart, but the market seems to disagree. we'll debate the fate of the world's biggest retailer. plus "street talk" all coming up when "power lunch" returns right after this. here at td ameritrade, they love innovating. and apparently, they also love stickers. what's up with these things, victor? we decided to give ourselves stickers for each feature we release. we read about 10,000 suggestions a week to create features that as traders we'd want to use, like social signals, a tool that uses social media to help with research. 10,000 suggestions. who reads all those? he does. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

welcome back to "power lunch." i'm mandy drury. here are this hour's power points. a nice rally on the street. the dow is up by triple digits, up 130 points. energy, interestingly, is the best performing sector. it's up 1.5%. among the individual names there, you've got chevron leading the dow, consol energy leading the s&p 500. it is up by more than 8%. so does this sound familiar? a home loan up to $2 million with no money down. innovative strategy or really dangerous return to easy lending? we'll bring that you debate ahead on "power lunch."

studies show and i love the phrase studies show, the funding gap is a challenge for entrepreneurs. one study found companies with female ceos receive just 3% of total venture capital dollars from 2011 to 2013. one of the biggest sharks in the tank is looking to change that and he has the numbers to make his case. kate rogers joins us with that story. >> it's mr. wonderful, kevin

o'leary, who looked over his returns for the paths six years and found that not some but all in his small and midcap portfolio come from women-owned or operated businesses. now more than a third of his investments are in women-run or owned companies who have returned capital 65% faster and given returns that are on average 75% higher. >> for me i've now made my decision, i know what i'm doing, and primarily because of returns. this is not some, you know, social media mission i'm on. i'm talking about making money. i'm making more money with women, period. >> now, one of the deals he's glad to have made barks ba, bac wicked good cupcakes from boston. they've given him a $400,000 return. she says women aren't asking for enough money. >> one of the challenges that

women impose upon themselves is when they ask for funding, they never ask for enough money and that's something they have to realize. if you need $20,000, ask for $20,000. don't go in and hope that you're going to get $5,000. >> o'leary says bottom line his new bias is to back these women-run businesses which i love hearing. it's so different. >> i have heard him say this before. did he give you any reason why he thinks this is true? >> absolutely. >> why he thinks women are better at this? he says they're taking risks but taking more strategic risks. they're natural delegators and leaders. he's like if you want something done, the old saying, hand it to a busy mother. he said they're more careful about setting goals that are achievable. >> that is an incredible stereotype and i don't want to get in trouble with all the men out there, yourself included and mr. brian sullivan but you often here when women want to take a risk, they don't let their ego get in the way. >> men with egos? >> you don't know anything about that? >> i am staying out of this,

brian. >> i know nothing about ego. >> i think male entrepreneurs and male decision makers tend to have more confidence than they should and females have less confidence sfwhp. >> they second guess themselves. >> and they're not asking for enough money. if you don't ask for it you're not going to get it. >> we irrationally think we're always right, males that is. >> i consider that a very rational position. >> exactly. >> thank you so much, kate. great stuff. thank you. brian, i would like to get your take on something here. we've all seen the hover boards, the dudes who are going down the street looking real cool with the two-wheeled -- >> looking real cool? >> they've grown increasingly popular over the last year. look at this video, a mall near seattle was evacuated on tuesday after a hov everybody board inside the mall burst into flames. >> paul blart mall cop. >> a mall employee was able to douse the flames and fortunately no one was reported injured. i can say -- i don't want to say

as the owner of a hover board because it's not me that uses it, it is my children -- >> you have one. >> they saved up with their pocket money and bought a cheap chinese knockoff. >> hover boards are roller blades just with more fire. >> you used to be on roller blades, too. >> i did. and i'm still humiliated to this day about it. nobody looks cool on a hover board. just walk. >> paul blart mall cop. i watched that movie the other night. >> pretty funny. be kafcareful if you're going t put one under the christmas tree. >> and rollerblades for about eight months were awesome. >> they were hot. >> you had the neon leg warners, the sony yellow sports walkman. >> cool. >> hover boards are cool today. >> that will do it for first hour. i'll step out and you will continue on -- >> i can't muscle -- okay. thank you. hi, everybody. i'm brian sullivan. mandy is going to stick with us throughout the whole hour and we have a jam-packed show ahead.

stocks are pushing higher right now. the dow is up triple digits, but we have to kick things off with a continuation of the top economic story of the year. oil's continued collapse. you might have heard this one before. now, earlier today we hit $36.52 per barrel and most headlines will say that's a six-year low which is technically correct, but you always must adjust any price for inflation, and if we do that, $36.50 per barrel today roughly the same as $33 per barrel back in 2009, which means we would be below the lows of that year. the point, after adjusting for inflation, crude oil is trading at the same price levels as it did back in 2004 in today's dollars, which means, yeah, we are really at a more than ten-year low for the price of crude oil adjusted for inflation. you heard exclusively from chevron's ceo john watson earlier this week. let's add to the global view

with cnbc contributor halima kroll. that was a quick entrance. it was like "the ellen" show. when you look at the fundamentals of oil, the fundamentals aren't much difference than they were when oil was at $48 or $50 a barrel. >> sentiment is so bad, and i think if we look at a week ago, there was some sort covering going into the opec meeting when the opec oil ministers essent l essentially said no production ceiling for us, that's when sentiment went so far south at this point. >> is it sentiment or is it rational supply/demand. >> we are significantly oversupplied. opec november numbers, they're up 230,000 barrels. there's a sense opec is not pulling back. we're still waiting to see when the market turns. >> what i was trying to say, this is a five-year chooart on

this beautiful screen. we were massively oversupplied here, massively overspliced here. what's the difference besides $16, $17 a barrel. >> what you want to look at is the short positions. we are almost at historic highs in terms of short positions. then you want to look at from a technical standpoint what could potentially get you higher. what is a support point where you could get some new momentum long as? we think it's $32.40. the '08 numbers. >> but you heard my point about inflation. $32.40 in 2008 is not the same as it is now. >> i know -- >> we're really at ten-year inflation adjusted lows. we're below the financial crisis in current dollars. >> i know. what our technicians are saying is if we hit that support point which might be our last support point, but if we hit that support point, you should get some short covering, some new momentum long as. if we go below that it's off to the races. >> if the short positions, people betting sense it, they want it to go down, if they are as big as you say --

>> yes. >> -- that indicates to me if we get a wash out or some positive number, we could have the shorts have to cover and we could have a very rapid and aggressive snap back. how likely is that? >> absolutely. you could get a $5 price movement in a day depending on some type of technical point, some news story. so, again, you could have some type of pop in terms of a movement intraday. >> here is saudi arabia's problem. saudi arabia has a growing population. they have a growing young population. those people want jobs. saudi arabia cannot at current oil prices fund their social obligation much less create new jobs because they're running out of money from oil. where do they go? how does this play out? >> 6 million new saudi labor force entrants between now and 2030. 65% of the saudi population under the age of 30. 40% of that cohort unemployed. that is a security challenge for saudi arabia. that's why they have a social contract with their population. this price environment they cannot easily maintain that.

>> this is an incredibly important point that you're making, and i need our audience to be crystal clear on this, which is think about saudi arabia. saudi arabia basically and i hate to use the term buys off its people, but it does. it pays them because it can't give them jobs. there's not enough advanced industry. >> not a lot of democracy. >> yeah, women still can't drive. they are running out of money to pay these people off. >> yes. >> they're young, they're jobless, and they're going to get angry. >> yes. and that is the concern from a security standpoint. you had arab spring, young, unemployed kids in the streets causing leaders to fall, but also a security component to it. the young, unemployed kids in the middle east end up in extremist groups. it's not an easy price environment for saudi by any means. >> yet they keep pumping 11-plus million barrels a day. >> something has got to give at some point. >> at some point, when that point happens, come back. well, tell us before you do and then we'll have you on. >> thank you. >> oil remains week but there may be a sign of a turn in

another beaten up group. that's the metals sectors. roberto is head of energy trading at green capital. i got your note this morning. it popped out to me that you weren't saying, okay, today is the bottom, but it looks like we're getting close for, say, the bhps or the rio tintos of the world. what are you seeing that makes you say that? >> it's interesting. so we had a cluster of dividend suspensions alonged this week. anglo on tuesday, along with oil and gas company kinder morgan. if you look back on the last 20 years, you've seen these companies cut several times, so the last time freeport cut their deaf dend was december of '08 and a couple months later anglo cut their dividend in february of '09. so in february of '09 the s&p metals index was down about 67% from its monthly highs. going into today, it was down about 69%. so very similar times in history. so what we found is when you

look back, these dividend cuts typically mark the bottom of the circle. when freeport cut in '08, it was almost a double six months out, up 99%. when anglo cut, the s&p metal mining index was up about 47%. so, you know, you're finding that these mississipost aggress measures come at the bottom when you have management throwing the towel in and they get rewarded by investors. you see it in the action of glen corp, they cut the dividend back in september. but you're seeing these stocks go up because, you know, they're sustaining their long-term viabili viability. >> so what -- i love history. it's often the best predecessor -- not always but often the best predecessor and there are similarities and differences to 2008 and 2009. bottom line, what are you guys at brean recommending for your clients? >> i would stay away from the

smaller names. every metal and mining company will likely go up in the next several months. rising tide type scenario, but i would stick with the bigger producers, the bhps, the rios, the lowest cost producers, the greatest balance sheets. if commodities stay tough, these guys are going to be profitable when some of the smaller guys won't necessarily be so. >> roberto friedlander, we appreciate it. thank you very much. >> you got it. thanks. >> stop me if this sounds all too familiar. you can now get a no money down mortgage for up to $2 million. diana olick, say it ain't so. brian was talking about history repeating itself. this could happen again. >> reporter: it is so, mandy, but it is not one of those no doc negative amortization hi-risk loans we saw during the heady days of the housing boom. it's only in san francisco where

home values are five times the national average and designed to help local workers who are paying close their incomes on rent. the nonprofit san francisco federal credit union is offering a five/five adjustable rate loaning. it's fixed for five years, it can only adjust every five years and only two percentage points each time it adjusts. borrowers must work in san francisco or san mateo county and it's only for primary residences. you can't use it to refi either. borrowers are fully vetted, proof of employment required and the loans are underwrit ton that first five-year adjustment hire. they're held on the credit union's box. there are up front fees depending whether you make a down payment. when i asked its chief lending officer rebecca reynolds little about risk, she said they have always done conservative lending. they know their customers and they verify everything. this is actually a new niche in mortgage land. navy federal credit union right here in d.c. does a no down payment jumbo loan up to $1

million. so could be the new trend. more online on cnbc.com. back to you. >> a new trend which possibly means there are going to be some other outfits out there who will do similar no money down lending that perhaps aren't quite as conservative, don't perhaps vet as much as that company does, right? >> reporter: that is always possible, of course, but at least in the credit unions, they're very conservative about things. >> does anybody else find it a little bit ironic that really we're talking about this the week that the movie "the big short" comes out which goes back to when everybody was making stupid loans and people were taking stupid loans and banks were doing stupid things? it's just -- gosh, are we just destined to make the same mistakes all the time? >> i don't know that we're destined to make the same mistakes. there are certainly lenders out there looking to ease standards a bit but there's an awful lot of restrictions on lending and they're looking at all the

verification on these loans. they're making sure that's borrowers can afford it unlike during the last decade. >> let's hope, diana. your point is well taken. >> let's get to seema mody. >> shares of restoration hardware are sticking to the downside. shares are coming off session lows down close to 2%. the home furnishings retailer is expected to report third quarter results after the bell today. on average according to thompson reuters, analysts are expecting to see 63 cents on sales of $540 million. the stock down 10% this year. brian? >> all right. see seema, thank you very much. still ahead on "power lunch," housing opportunities for you in the new year. one top housing analyst with his top picks. i want you to think kate upton. that's right, kate upton. plus, one analyst says it's smooth sailing for one cruise line operator.

more of that in our "street talk" segment. and can you guess today's mystery chart? this is not a company we have talked about often, but it's a stock that's been on a tear. it is up 75% this year. your first hint, software to help you sell. the answer coming up, and a reminder as we go to break. not a bad rally on our hands. the dow is up 0.8% to 17,632. hope you're having a great day. we're back right after this. nobody move! get on the floor! do something! oh i'm not a security guard, i'm a security monitor.

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welcome back to "power lunch." aig announcing some big changes to its executive team. the company sent 4 of its 15 highest ranking execs are leaving including the cfo. shares are down 1.1%. chipotle's ceo speaking out following a string of nationwide illnesses. steve els apologized to sick customers and promised chipotle will be, quote, the safest place to eat. and tyson foods entering the all-time high club in today's session. the stock is trading at its highest level since its ipo which goes all the way back to 1963, brian. tyson foods up by over 1%. over to you. >> thank you. we could call this next story the buffett bump. shares of seritage growth properties, a name you probably never heard of before today, are soaring. this because warren buffett unveiled a personal stake in the

company. the company holds more than 250 sears and k-mart stores in a portfolio. buffett's 8% stake is voted at -- valued at about $105 million. that stock up more than 13% at last check. well, you may have missed your chance with seritage but there are still plenty of good companies and stocks out there. so get your investing pens or pencils ready because rbc capital markets is making some adjustments in their home building portfolio with three names you probably know well. bob wettenhall joining us now. i made this rather obscure reference to kate upton which anytime you can say kate upton, it's a good thing. kate upton's great grandfather founded the appliance company whirlpool. why is that your favorite stock pick right now? >>. >> out of the 22 names we cover, whirlpool has an attractive profile. the stock will earn over $14 next year. world class company, tremendous growth. a lot of concerns about

promotional activity heading into the fourth quarter. we think the fears are totally overblown. stock will other than $14.25 in 2016 trading at ten times earnings. super cheap, great management team, tremendous m&a skills. they're dominating europe and north america is doing a lot better than people think. we see plenty of upside in a very controversial misunderstood story. >> well, first off, europe, okay? they're big in europe, but i worry about -- we always hear about how dire it is in europe. and now we're saying that maybe europe is under valued. >> europe, they just bought in the fourth quarter, makes them number one in the fourth quarter. synergies will drive cash flow which is just going to ramp. this is a cash flow growth story. they know what they're doing. margins are going to double. >> why is it so misunderstood? >> they've had a couple misfires in their communication. this has not been the best year for them, but the tough product transition issues which have

really been their achilles heels are behind. they're fully floored. we're expecting they're going to grow in line or stronger than the market. chatter about promotional activity pressuring margins, we don't see any fact to support that. this is a really cheap stock with great management and strong competitive advantages. we love the upside. >> you have also got an outperform on fortune brands home and security. your price target is $60. that implies a 10% to 11% upside. that's come down because the stock has done well. are you still that bullish on fortune brands? >> this is another world class management team. dominates cabinets, extremely strong in masterlock. they have the best alignment between management's compensation package and what shareholders get. they only get paid if the stock goes up. they have a super clean balance sheet. they're active on the m&a trail. they're looking for a bazooka acquisition.

we think they will execute. >> maybe more companies should follow their lead about the way they get paid. very quickly, toll brothers. you upgraded it to a sector perform which is kind of like a bologna sand whiwich. you don't love it, you just don't like it less. >> we were concerned about the valuation. stock was not well received when they reported fourth quarter on monday. traded off 7%. we think the bad news is fully priced in. they actually had very strong order -- >> but you're not going outperform, you're not going buy. right now it's kind of a semi holding pattern. >> that's right. we think it trades in line with the group. there's a lot of concerns about the new york market rolling over due to fears on lower comp on wall street. at the same time the california portfolio is doing really well. a lot of focus in 2016. what happens to texas with oil going down? >> you read my mind. what is happening with texas? i'm concerned about a housing slowdown, you say i'm wrong. what are you seeing? >> we think the engine will continue. you have tremendous -- >> how though? i don't get it.

>> sustained consumer growth. don't fear the fed. >> i don't fear the fed. i fear $36 oil. >> this is a vote of confidence in the u.s. economy and dallas and other parts of the state very diversified. >> okay. they say that. >> our best housing pick right now d.r. horton. >> bob loves whirlpool and fortune brands. >> did you ever see the "seinfeld" episode where mrs. costanza said who doesn't like a bologna sandwich? >> this has been an under the radar start. your first hint was software to help you sell. your second hint, it's only been public for just over a year. we'll bring you the answer ahead. but first the five big analyst stock calls that need to be on your radar. we have "street talk" after a quick break as we start to move back up to the highs of the day. i think the dow is up by 155 points before pulling back. now we're back up at 153. watch it climb with us. don't go away.

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welcome back to "power lunch." take a look at this on the board behind us. >> watch that pen. >> the dow is up 160 points which means we've surpassed the previous high. we started out negatively, move up to 155 to the good, lost quite a lot and now we're back up again. it must be the magic of street signs. >> what was our motto? everything is fine? >> everything is fine. we had a lot of mowttos. that's why i had to think. i was going through the rolodex of mottos. >> what's a rolodex. time or "street talk." stock number one, norwegian cruise lines. citigroup adding it to the focus list. the stock has a solid outlook

despite negative sentiment around it. they just met with management. what they're saying about negative sentiment is the stock is down 10% since earnings came ott last quarter. it got downgraded by a competing firm but citigroup is confident because norwegian is entering next year 50% sold in their cabins. $5 by '17. 15% upside. >> 55% sold going into next year. is that by historical standards a good thing. >> better than last year. >> the second stock is lending tree. bank of america raising the rating to a buy from neutral. the stock is up more than 10%. the analyst believes investors should take advantage of the company's offline to online transition to a huge market as consumers turn more towards online banking. the price target is $122. remains unchanged but it's been sitting at $102 so a little upside to go. one year, 146% to the good.

>> my bad math skills me tell me that's about 20%. stock number three, avago. fbr starting coverage with an outpnch and $185 target. that's 25% upside to avgo. the analyst note says avago is ascending the networking throne. he likes their aquicquisitive strategy. they bought broadcom and the analyst sees prices increases coming as it rolls in broadcom's intellectual property into its core offerings. >> very good one-year performance of over 50%. next up we have first solar. downgrading the stock to a hold from a buy. taking shares down nearly 10% and the analyst says there is risk to first solar's eps guidance for 2016. almost half of it depends on the sale of the state line minority ownership. revenue declines and also slowed

efficiency roll out. it's been a tough space. >> first solar we talk about all the time, right? all the solar -- one of our viewers or listeners, because they're smart, tweet in, tell me why you would own a stock like this. i'm not knocking first solar. i'm saying the stock is the same price as it was 2 1/2 years ago. it's at the same price. unless you're a day trader or an options trader writing puts and calls, the volatility is out of control. nobody knows where the space is going. some are wildly bullish, some wildly bearish. write in and tell me why you'd want to own it. >> heating oil is so cheap, natural gas is so cheap. gasoline is so cheap. >> last stock, blackbaud. this is our under the radar name. it's a charleston, south carolina, based software market for nonprofits and schools. r.w. baird starting coverage with an outperform and $75 target, just under 20% upside, much higher than the $67 and

change average price of the analysts who cover it. steve ashley notes that the nonprofit market still very fragmented but blackbaud's new management team working to address the market and a new cloud based program should drive growth. the stock is up 3% to $64.68. "street talk" is down for a thursday. >> tick. >> done. up next, we're head ed downtown to the nynex for the oil close. we'll revisit jackie d. at the nymex coming up. >> i love this sing.

so what's your news? i got a job! i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition!

i'm sharon epperson and here is your cnbc news update at this hour. north korean leader kim jong-un says his country has developed a hydrogen bomb. a step up from the less powerful atomic bomb. it's thought to be the first time he has made such a claim. the white house says it doubts north korea's claim. a pentagon spokesman says coalition air strikes have killed the islamic state's finance minister and two leaders in recent weeks. the finance minister is claimed to have been killed. gop presidential candidate

marco rubio campaigning in iowa holding a town hall in des moines. he told veterans he'd make sure american troops always have superior resources and strategy in any conflict. he also promised extensive reforms of the veterans administration. members of the tu nearbien national dialogue quartet which helped build democracy after the revolution collecting the nobel peace prize in oslo. they were awarded $960,000 in prize money. that's the cnbc news update at this hour. back to you, brian. >> all right, sharon, epperson, thank you very much. the oil market is set to close for the day and guess what? crude oil down again. crowd oil having another tough session. we are about to close down to $36.76 per barrel, folks. that's another 1% slide for the price of crude oil, but, mandy, normally oil and stocks have been going in the same direction. not today. >> not today. there's a real decoupling going on despite the fact you have

crude prices at seven-year lows. look at the big wall where i have the dow 30 stocks. look at the top gainer, chevron up by 3%. not far down you have also got exxon up by 1.6% so the energy sector is doing surprisingly well despite the fact under lying crude is to the downside. the dow is up by 1%. 190 points to the upside breaking that three-day losing streak and we are at the highs of the day. well, the airline etf, the xal, struggling that take off in 2015. it's down 13% but there could be clear skies ahead in the new year. they're expecting record profits in 2016. let's bring in todd rosenbluth. todd, what's the joutlook? >> we have a positive outlook on a number of the airline stocks. we think we're going to see

strong profitability driven by strong demand as well as you mentioned the low oil prices. that directly helps airline companies. we think it's going to be a strong year for their cash flow and the stocks don't reflect that at this point. >> do you think -- i'm just getting over to another position over here, todd. what is the offset of any potential lower demand that might be caused by those who are scared of traveling because of the recent terror attacks that we've had around the world? does the fact that you've got the positive of lower fuel prices, does that offset the potential of lower demand from those who might be scared to fly? >> what we've seen is that we've seen strong statistics of travel demand. we've seen this is obviously a typical holiday travel time and we've seen pricing be firm. that's what our analyst jim corridor at s&p capital iq thinks. we think it's going to be positive. if we see other terrorist attacks like what we saw in paris, that could cause investors or companies to travel and that could have a negative

impact. we think lower oil prices, strong demand is a positive for the stocks. we really don't think consensus forecast really reflects the lower oil prices we've seen in recent weeks. that's probably not yet baked into analyst forecasts for q4 or 2016. >> understood. todd, thank you very much for your thoughts. brian, over to you. >> mandy, time now for "trading nation," and let us look at this year's best performing sector. it's the consumer discretionary stocks. the question is that's in the past. what's going to happen ahead? will consumer reliant stocks stay strong in the year ahead? larry mcdonald at societe generale, rich ross, tech anything at evercorps. we've talked about these huge concerns, about the debt issues in energy and all this other stuff but guess what? the american consumer has been going to the store in a pretty strong way buying homes and cars as well. do you see that continuing? >> well, rich is going to get into some of the divergence in the etfs which is fascinating.

the xly is only 2.5% off the highs, maybe 2%, but the xrt is 13% off the highs. so you're talking about a broad-based retail as a whole is getting hurt. over the next 52 weeks socgen has a view of mid-50s for crude. that's a 50% upside over the next year. that's a headwind for the consumer, so over the next year it's a sector that although it had a good 2015, i don't see as good a 2016. >> there you go. not as good of a 2016 but let's find out if the technicals match up with that viewpoint. rich ross, you're charting a couple etfs for us? >> we are. we're talking about headwinds here. a couple head winds for the group here. first of all, the specter of higher interest rates posing next week. that's an interest for retail. in addition, we have warmer weather which is also a headwind for the group. now, let's bring up the charts. we know it's been a tale of two charts here, brian, and larry

alluded to that. the first chart is xly. that's a cap weighted index. the top three stocks make up 25% of the index. we're talking about amazon, home depot, disney. the average return on those three stocks is over 50%. so keep that in mind. look at that, yes, as we alluded to. up 11% year-to-date but that doesn't tell the whole story here. as we look at the chart of the xrt equally weighted which means a stock like amazon gets the same weighting as ulta beauty salon for pep boys. you can see here clearly down 8% on a year-to-date basis. that's 20% underperformance versus that cap weighted index. the 100-day moving average provides resistance all the way down here, brian. i think retail more broadly speaking has some issues here, and you're asking a lot of a very small group of stocks to continue to carry the mail for the space. i don't think it does. >> okay. there you go. pretty much sanguine view from both a fundamental and technical

perspective. thank you. folks a reminder, we do two additional segments every day. where can you find them? right there, "trading nation". tradingnation.cnbc.c tradingnation.cnbc.com. >> the dow is up nearly 200 points. now up 177. what is fueling it? wr we're going to head live to the nyse floor after this. plus, your mystery chart. this has been a total stock stud climbing 75%. it's not a name we often talk about. can you guess it though? we'll bring you the answer when "power lunch" returns.

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nasdaq. bob, i don't know what your guys are saying but here is why i find today's action a little bit positive. the oil is down, but the best performing stocks are chevron and exxonmobil near the top. >> that's right. in fact, energy -- oil will be down all day and generally energy stocks have been performing well. put up the s&p 500. we were sort of loling around here in the middle of the day. when we passed the earlier highs of the day, it was about 2016. the volume suddenly picked up and the market moved to a new high. that's when we passed the old low of the day, it was 2062. maybe some technical factors, but, brian, you're onto something. i have been saying for a long time the market has two problems. number one, energy is not clearly bottomed. oil has not clearly bottomed and we're in the middle of tax law selling season. a lot of people are selling losers which are energy stocks. energy has been positive almost from the get-go even as oil was

weak and oil was notably weaker earlier in the day. i think that's positive. another beaten up group had a terrible year, industrials. what you're trying to look for and, again, i think you're onto something, brian, is start looking for situations where the biggest losers of the year, people start turning around for 2016 to position their portfolios and say how much lower is a general electric, an inner s ingersoll rand, all those global corporations, many are down 15% to 20% on the year. another group done fairly well this year, biotech is a big performer but health care sitting near the highs of the day. >> thank you very much, bob pisani. walmart entering the mobile pay game with a launch of walmart pay. cnbc's mary thompson joins us with the details. very catchly named walmart pay. >> i know. you know, mandy, a lot of retail and payment analysts at cnbc are

a bit perplexed by the move. walmart pay makes it the first brick and mortar retailer with its own mobile wallet. while walmart has resisted other forms of pay. they already check into walmart stores with their phones to find deals. now they can pay with their phones at checkout. here is how it works. you set up walmart pay through the walmart app. link walmart pay to credit cards or debit to cards stored on the account. the camera takes a picture of a qrt and a receipt is e-mailed to you. it did say that other features could be added eventually, including possibly other mobile wallets maybe like apple pay or samsung pay. it's being tested in select stores in arkansas and the

national rollout should be completed by the summer. walmart may end up getting more of their money. doug mcmillen has said clients who shop only in the stores spend an average of $1,400 a year. online only clients spend $200 a year on average. but those that shop in the store and online, they spend $2,500 a year. walmart declined to say if it would add reward programs that are favored by this group. it's hallmark has always been the everyday low prices but increasingly what you're seeing is retailers need to have an omni channel experience in order to drive added sales at any of their outlets, online, or in brick and mortar. >> one of my banned words of the year, omni channel. mary thompson, thank you. along with curate. did you know walmart is the worst performing stock in the dow this year? it's true. down even more than the much maligned caterpillar. walmart has lost 30% of its

value and it is back to stock levels not seen since may of 2012. but your next guest says nothing is fundamentally wrong with the company. let's find out why. joe feldman of telsey advisory group joining us now. joe, i hear your points and i know -- but the market seems to disagree. the stock is down 30%. that's a problem. >> well, i think the issue that the market has has been walmart has had a lower guidance several times this year rather than just doing it all up front at once at the start of the year. and i think that a lot of people thought investment spending was going to start to taper off a little bit into 2016 but it turns out that it's going to really take more until 2017, even into 2018 before you start to see that. so i think that's just delaying some of the benefits that will come from the investment spending which is why the stock has underperformed. >> i like what they've done. they're raising wages, good. they're investing. that's good. they're going to pay a lot of vendors money. that's good. we know the thousands of companies that make money off

the walmart halo. why do you think investors have not reacted more favorably to a reinvestment in the business? >> i think it's just a lot happening all at once for walmart. people are still skeptical about walmart's core customer and how much they'll have an appetite for buying things online. i think that customer will buy things online one day. 75% of their customers have a mobile phone which is really their main access to the internet. and we're seeing mobile trends picking up significantly, so it makes sense to me walmart is going after this and having that moment pay option as well. and if they can get their customer used to using the app and used to shopping in the stores with the mobile pay, it translates into the mobile and the online, and i think that longer term this could work. >> ironically, sit tight, we have some breaking news right now on walmart. seema mody, xa is it? >> dow jones is reporting steven quinn is going to leave in january. that according to sources of dow

jones. dow jones also reporting walmart will hire former target marketing executive as a consultant and that the former target executive michael francis to revamp walmart's marketing. we're just reading through the details here right now. those are the headlines at this moment. walmart shares higher by 1.3% on the day. >> seema, thank you. joe, good grief, talk abouter is ren deipity. steven quinn, chief marketing officer, stepping down. your reaction? >> it's a loss from the company. you never like to see somebody who has been with the company for a long time. marketing is one of the areas maybe you bring in fresh blood. mike francis was very good at target. he helped reinvent the imaging and the whole cheap chic. >> do you think it's a -- target and walmart probably sell 95% of the same stuff but the marketing couldn't be more different. target young and hip, out there. walmart is low prices, low

prices, low prices. do you think this signals kind of a change in what walmart wants to be perceived as? >> i think it's just a part of the evolution for walmart. you know, since doug mcmillen took over, he's really been going after a younger, hipper type of vibe at the company and wanting to transform into an online or multichannel retailer and do a better job there, and i think the marketing is sort of part of that process. as he cleans up his stores, he can tell people about it in a better way and i think it will draw some customers. >> joe, we appreciate it. listen, great stuff, flying with the breaking news on walmart as well. >> my pleasure. >> excellent timing. we're watching this market gain steam. the dow is up by nearly 200 points. the s&p 500 is sitting at 2,065. why is that pertinent? when it crossed the 2,058 point it went break even for the year. the s&p 500 has gone back and forth over that break even timo

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right color, i wore the wrong color, but there are a couple sectors in the red, sow represent them. >> you've got the cool kids. >> i do, but it's the in sector the leading sector. we've been remarking upon this, because the market is -- crude is down at seven-ee lows, energy has managed to move higher. >> yeah, very optimistic sign. two stocks to call crier attention to. number one is dow chemical. dow chemical is down today. the news that it might merge with dupa dupont, so it's losin lot of what it gained. the other stock, and jim cramer may disagree. i think freeport mcmoran is one of the -- it used to be glencorp. because everything that's going

on, carl icahn, the dividend suspension, all this stuff, freeport mcmoran is up 3%, sew that's having a decent day. okay. >> okay. last call to guess today's mystery chart. we said it's up 75%, it's software to help you sell, and your final hint is this. this company could be considered the hub of cambridge. the answer and the ceo interview when "power lunch" returns. >> that was an easy hint. >> c'mon now. here at td ameritrade, they're always working. yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted)

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it is time now to reveal our mystery chart. that stock up a whopping 70-plus percent this year. we called it the hub of cambridge. >> if that wasn't a hit, i don't know what is. the ticker hubbs, based in same bridge massachusetts. just ranked as glass door, i don't know how they know that, but who cares. thanks very much for joining us. in plain english. in plain english, tell our audience of potential investors what you guys do? >> it's simple, brian, i feel like humans have radically changed the way they shop for things and the way they buy things in pretty much every company in the planet.

we built a modern platform to enable that shift to happen for businesses. >> so who do you sell to? who is your customer? >> we like to -- and i feel like the -- to the big guy. on the internet your success is much more about the width of your brain that is your wallet. >> you floe, we talk about ads, market i marketing and b, what if he wet good some kind kind of economic slowdown? what are you seeing in terms of your sales trends? >> we are not seeing anyone signs of an economic slowdown. our revenue is up 57% year over year, our margins were up 8%, so we're not seeing any signs of an economic slowdown.

>> ubs said they wanted to make sure you have insulation from macroconcerns. is that a fair thing that you do? do you feel like you do have that? >> somewhat. i mean, if the economy completely craters, there is only so much you can do, but our type of marketing, sort of like i said before, it's much more about your creativity. the traditional marketing, you have to throw lots of money at advertising of the it's very hard to measure that stuff. our type of marketing is how do you pull people in in google, blogs, social media in a new type of way and less cost prohibitive. we're not completely immune, but somewhat insulated. >> ubs has as buy, they see another ten bucs of ups-- bucks up side. >> a good fellow irishman. we've got a market rally going on. i'm going to haened it over to

kelly to keep on following that market rally. there we go, 167, we're not had the highs of the day. it's been nice to be back together again. >> we'll call it the christmas show, green and red. appreciate it. thanks very much for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. you still got it! >> welcome to "closing bell", everybody. i'm kelly evans here at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. boy, do we have a lot to talk about. something you don't even see. oil prices continue lower, but energy stocks are rallying, leading the broader indices higher, we'll break it down and we'll ponder today, kellry evans whether this should signal a bottom for oil prices. there i said it. >> which are