welcome. you're watching worldwide exchange. aim care elin roth. >> i'm susan li. here are your headlines around the world. >> the green had u.s. futures going higher. third time lucky? a relief rally for south african assets after president jacob zuma bows too pressure. the sun shines on the climate summit. apple and taylor swift, they shake it off when it comes to their differences and reach an

exclusive deal to debut a film of the pop star's world tour. good morning, everyone. we're roughly 1:15 into the trading session and this is what you're seeing. you're actually seeing green. i guess very few people had expected this after the poor showing that we got after the asian trading after the big dropoff from u. is the dropoff on friday. the dow was off 3.3%. the dow off 4.1% for the week. the ftse 100 off of .5%. the xetra dax up the same. the cac 40 up even higher at 0.9%. this week we saw it in asia and the junk bonds and the oil route. in asia the shanghai comp is up

2%. the macro economic data was up better than we expected. the fixed asset investment is at least in line. the anything kay is also off by 1.8%. meantime, the yuan has hit a fresh year low. >> the trifecta in china. u.s. futures, pretty tough week for wall street. markets slumping. all big three indices falling more than 3%. we saw the biggest single daily decline for the dow jones industrials and the s&p 500 since september. checking in on the implied open. looks like we are recovering a it about. the s&p 500 up 9 points above fair value. the same thing for the dow jones industrials. the nasdaq should be seeing

gains of 28. now let's show you what's happening with oil and oil continuing its decline as you see west texas, we're trading below $36 a barrel. lower than .9 of 1%. yes, we are visiting those global financial lows. brent crude dipping bean low $35 a barrel. this is a big week. is this the week where we get the first rate hike from the federal reserve in ten years? they're calling this a tectonic shift. the dollar index and equities when it comes to yields as well, yeah, checking in on u.s. treasuries. there's a bit of rotation back into safety. the two-year note where you feel the front load when it comes to expectations on what they're going to do with interest rates in the u.s., looking at 91 basis points. ten year note, that was of note at the end of last week. looking at 217 basis points.

getting into safety. more expectations that maybe, maybe this is the week, carolyn, that the fed's going to go finally. >> it might be the first time in roughly ten years. let's get back to the friday trading session. third avenue, that really shocked investors. third avenue has forced out long-time chief executive david bars si. it follows friday's announcement to bar investor withdrawals from its high yield bond funds sparking widespread market turmoil. a security guard said that barsa had been let go and is not allowed back in the building. what we saw in the week to december 9th, susan, investors pulling $3.4 billion from high year funds. that's the biggest outflow since august of it you thousand four. this is the largest mutual fund feeler since the financial crisis. that's why people were so nervous. that's why we saw the markets so jittery. in itself it's a fairly small fund.

the signal barring investors from withdrawing the funds. it reminds us of the days just before the credit krun. , doesn't it? >> 2008, years that people want to forget. getting back to third avenue, yes, you're right, it wasn't widely held as a mutual fund but is this something that's surprising to us? we've been pointing out the spread between high yield, junk bonds and risk free rates. was this coming at some point? >> was it really coming? that a fund would keep investors from pulling out their money? we saw a rise in rates and drop in liquidity but investors keeping people from drawing out their money. >> what i'm trying to say because of the differentials, you know there were some jitters in the markets. people were concerned that people who issued a lot of this corporate junk would be able to pay it back and they were paying

growing and higher interest rates to get people to buy in. this is telustrated that you saw it. joining us is david owen, chief european economy at jeffries. david, should the fed be hiking rates in this environment where the liquidity is higher? >> they flagged the fact that they're going o raise rates. we've gone through this situation where the market was taking over the rates on the table. now it's been very well flagged. so i think they should follow through. now u.s. colleagues have been calling for a december rate hike now for two years. and they still expect the fed to raise rates further in 2016, '17. >> are you not concerned about the volatility that we expected? >> it's absolutely expected. the imf has been talking about

it. they were concerned about redemptions, not just in certain fixed income funds but also in commercial real estate funds, open-ended funds where they were concerned that obviously, you know, investors wouldn't all be able to head to the exit all at the same time. this is the environment we live in. exit, liquidity is being withdrawn from the market. it's all the reason why they don't raise rates. it's just a fact of life. >> david, does it surprise you that for the ten year yield we're still at 217 basis points? if that's the case? >> yes, it does. >> what does that say to you? >> it says nobody's expecting the fed to raise rates that aggressively. janet yellen and the guidance came out with basically we're not going to raise rates that quickly and it's been very clearly linked to the data and also achieving the mandate rate over reasonable prices. >> would you say also there's a bit of safety seeking as well?

>> absolutely. absolutely. absolutely. but as i say, this shouldn't -- what happened on friday may be a surprise. in terms of the overall big picture, funds facing withdrawals and so forth, you know, that was long expected. the imf was warning about it almost two years agoment and particularly on the fixed income side, the em side, concerned about em currencies. the fed has to set policy for the u.s. the ecb is doing more. the way we describe it is that you've got the fed which is dovish tightening and the ecb with a hawk i shall easing. >> it's not that great? it's not as great as many people had forecast for 2016? >> i think once we get beyond wednesday and the market looks at what's going on, i think actually this policy will become much more to the fore. i think we'll see the dollar going up on the foreign exchanges. we'll see the market repricing in terms of rate rises in the

u.s. and the u.k. coming back into the sort of the target zone as well and then also the ecb is going to carry on easing. there is divergence here. >> david, you're going to stick along. david owen, chief european economist at jefferies. a late night president from jacob zuma to return the finance minister gordhan. he replaced the minister. this is the third finance minister to the president's office justifying the move saying we emphasize the importance of listening to the people. gordhan was widely respected from 2009 to 2014. talk about musical chair.

south african bonds are seeing a return. >> now let's check in on shares in investech and the yield. they're coming back higher after selling off sharply at the end of last week. global leaders have cemented a deal which lowers global warming to less than 2 degrees. it was greeted by standing applause and whistles from delegates representing almost 200 nations at the cop 21 meeting in paris. >> now appearing on nbc's meet the president, we have u.s. secretary of state john kerry defending this, what he says is a legally binding agreement. and, you know, he told chuck todd that shaming politicians into complying seems to be effective. >> it's the most powerful weapon in many ways but it's not the only weapon. we think there are other powerful weapons. president obama understood and believe me he's been really

committed to getting this done and it's his leadership in america on our own climate action plan that gave us credibility here and the president's been able to do that without some of that enforcement mechanism but by setting policy. here we set policy. 186 countries came together, each submitted their own plan for reductions according to their capacities. we have a mandatory legally binding reporting mechanism, chuck, and that reporting mechanism requires people to retool their plans every five years in order to do more than they might be doing and meet the goal. people understand this issue. this is not a question of just doing it because it seems nice or politically it's good, it's because it's having a profoundly negative impact on nations. they need to respond and that's perhaps the most compelling

reason of all. >> but you say legally binding. okay. so somebody doesn't comply, again, is it -- what's the -- what's this law that you're going to hit them with other than international shame? >> there's a mechanism that is being set up within this structure that will promote compliance and you will have nations within that mechanism working with countries in order to help bring them on board. you don't always need a sledge hammer. if you can provide people with technology or you provide them with technical assistance or you've discovered a new means of reducing emissions at less cost, more efficiency there will be a huge sharing of these kinds of experiences through the reporting mechanism of the agreement. >> let's check in on the stock reaction. europe's renewable energy players are trading higher today following the signing of that

historic climate a kortd over the weekend. italian group and vista and gamsa and spain's iberdrola all in positive territory. sma is a big gainer as jeel still to come on this show, are you excited about this? i'm sure you are. the force will awaken tonight when the new "star wars" premieres in the u.s., but does the move view have what it takes to challenge hollywood's biggest blockbusters? we'll get more from l.a. after this. ashley bryant, you are a teacher of small children. that's right. i have read it is the hardest job in the world. that's why i'm here. can you... i can offer advice from the accumulated knowledge of other educators... that's wonderful but... i can tailor a curriculum for each student by cross-referencing aptitude, development, geography...

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now the chairman of boson has reappeared. in public appearances after going 34ising since last week. his alleged disappearance showed that he had been drawn into beijing's crackdown. shares of fosun dropped 9.45. they said the chairman was helping authorities with their probe. did he disappear or not? >> when they say probe, it's personal probe into personal matters. the company, you saw the stock reaction again today, double

digit declines for a lot of them. personal or not, fosun is a very slick china businessman in this era. i've had a chance to interview him a couple of times. they call him the warren buffet of china. he's buying up a lot of insurers with up front premiums with long-term payouts. he's using the up front money to make a lot of acquisitions. club med would be a high profile one. >> thomas cook. >> yes. this is a man that's very slick modern china businessman. can you imagine that happening anywhere else in the world? a billionaire disappeared all of a sudden. >> don't know why he disappeared? >> yeah. interesting. let's talk about alibaba. speaking about rich, deep pockets, jack ma and alibaba

agreeing on a $266 million deal to buy other media assets. he's taking it from another fellow billionaire. so the semp citing a, quote, uncertain future for traditional funding. they added that alibaba will likely be able to, quote, unlock greater value in these assets. the move has raised questions about the future of the newspaper's editorial independence under its new ownership. shares down 20%. first when this was announced we didn't get any financial details. it looks like it's $266 million and it's i think 2.06 billion when it comes to hong kong currency that alibaba is paying for this. when i talked to my hong kong press sources there is a bit of concern that maybe this could mean something in the future from the semp which played a big role, for instance, in promoting

democracy during the hong kong protests just about a year ago. >> it's worth noting that in a letter to the readers the alibaba executive vice chairman dismissed any suggestions that alibaba would actually compromise the newspaper's editorial independence. he said this criticism reflects advice of his own. what we do know though is that alibaba has really worked alongside the government in terms of promoting some of their goals, whether it was job creation, more entrepreneurship, branching out into the region. so they're on the government's good side when it comes to the promotion of business, but whether they can actually stay on their good side when it comes to media coverage, that remains to be seen. it's actually a pretty big test for alibaba. >> very smart, smart, smart man, the vice chairman of alibaba. we should point out that alibaba has also been on the hunt for content as well. so this might be a way to get into content. you know, alibaba and jack ma isn't the only one buying into

print. we know that with chuck basos. >> maybe more content buying than political motive. who knows. anyway, bracing for the fed's south korean central meeting says it's ready to put into place measures if necessary. it will watch global markets around the clock during and after the meeting on tuesday and wednesday. i guess every central bank in the world will watch the markets around the clock. >> the first rate hike in close to a decade. yes, we've waited close to ten years for this. this might have repercussions around the world. emerging markets are vulnerable as well as the middle east. hadley gamble reports from dubai. >> reporter: serious implications for middle east economies, none more so than in the uae. this currency is pegged to the dollar. the central bank is limited when it comes to formulating an independent monetary policy.

local banks have said they're going to be raising interest rates in anticipation of the fed's decision. i got the chance to catch up with the vice chairman for more. >> the fed decision now doesn't have really an impact on abu dhabi but it does have an impact on markets and i think the fed has done a good job in preserving the stock market, the motivation and the confidence. that they raise the rates today, next week, three months or a year. it's not an issue. america is doing much better and america is leading and allowing other financial centers not to collapse and consolidate itself. so on the interest rate, it's not really a concern if you talk about long term. volatility is perfect, you like that, up and down for a broker

rage house like ours, it's profit annual. >> reporter: it will slow from 4% in 2014 to 3% in 2015. it kept gcc countries churning along. i asked ghanem for his outlook on oil. >> the oil will not stay at this price. we can see drops just to wipe up some stops below just to show some speculators and now we have new ways of trading which is algorithm and robot trading which do interfere on their own with some criteria. you might have a move on a day, on a day but overall it will go back to stability. >> stability being 90? we're not going to see 90 again? >> possibly you might see 90, 80, 100. this is not where i want to focus. i want to focus that the world find another energy solution.

we use energy. i don't see people using electricity here. no, the world is not ready for that big move so -- and then not only that, the whole region passed through five years of huge turmoil. it's not going to come -- it's not going to be -- let's say you have peace tomorrow at 9:00 in the morning. you need to rebuild, you need to re-adapt. you have very clever people in this country that knows how to manage the oil price and the demand and the production they want to give. overall, i'm not really concerned about that. temporarily the momentum, is it a question to ask yourself, is it cheaper to live here or live somewhere else. people who like the uae will live here. others who want stability will come here. >> expats are taking flight. we saw many here speculating that even an economic slowdown

of 1% could make it happen again. he said he's much more worried about a wealthy exodus from europe than he's worried about that happening in the uae. quick look at oil prices once again, and they are under pressure again this morning on this monday. brent crude down 0.9%. 37.58. wti crude, down 0.67%. after declines of 12% last week, that's absolutely breathtaking. david owen is still with us. how badly is the european economy suffering from the downturn in commodity prices or is it actually benefitting from it? >> well, it's a story about the weakness of the equity markets. in terms of the european economy, it's actually good news. one of the reasons the eurozone started recovering in 2014 and

2015 was really the oil price. not only the oil price, but the labor market has been tight. clearly lower oil price is good news for consumers skbl we hear that argument all the time, david. of all the commodity prices and stocks keep on slumping, that can't be good for sentiment. >> not in the stock market but good news for consumers. it's not the only reason. the eurozone is gaining momentum on its own volition. i think the ecb's oil prices today means stronger growth in gdp tomorrow. so it's another reason to potentially think about eventually raising rates. not ecb. >> what about the emerging world, are they ready for what's happening with the federal reserve? but then they get reprieve from the cheaper oil price. in some cases other states suffer. who knows what's going to happen after wednesday. that's why in a sense it's best if the fed goes and we see how

the fallout. potentially things aren't as bad as people think. the fed lose again a couple of times in 2016. that's most people i think central case. bank of england -- >> having that debate, david, about whether or not em is ready. have people priced that in? >> there's been an exodus of funds. more money will be coming out once it actually happens this week. >> i'm no emx person, but there are three or four countries on the target list which will be most impacted by the fed decision. we've learned about it for a very long time. investors as they put money in the funds, actually, you knew about it. it's not something that should be a huge surprise. what we now need obviously is much more macro/micro crude by central banks. we're seeing it in the u.k. they're trying to slow down bubbles as they develop, but the problem is these bubbles continue developing. the ecb in a sense is creating

its own problems in markets by keeping rates where they are, where they have to be. it builds up bubbles in markets. >> david, very quickly before we let you go, what's the wild card in the economy? >> political risk is with us still despite the french election results. political risk is there and obviously geopolitical risk is a major problem. >> david, thank you so much for your time. david owen, chief european economist at geoff ris. >> 2015 shaping up to be the worst year for tech ipos in 2009. we talk about the challenges going public right after this.

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european stocks trading in the green and they're shrugging off junk bond jitters. third time lucky in a relief rally after president jacob zuma returns gordhan as finance ministry. a sunny yut look from the global summit. apple and taylor swift, they are shaking it off when it comes to their differences and they have reached an exclusive deal to debut a film on the pop star's world tour.

quick look at european equity markets and surprisingly we are higher today really shrugging off the weakness that we saw in the asian trading session and in the umpt s. session on friday. the ftse 100 up by 0.8%. it was a terrible week for european markets last week who were down roughly 4%. the xetra dax bouncing back to the tune of 0.6%. many stocks doing somewhat better on the back of the paris agreement and there are those south african exposed stocks doing very well on the new finance minister -- the old one, i should say. new and old. in terms of the fx markets, we're seeing some dollar strength ahead of potentially some strength of the fed. it's down by 1/3 of 1%. we are seeing the dollar yen at 12108. in the bond markets we did see a flight to safety on the back of

the jitters on the concerns of the junk bond markets and the deepening oil route. we're seeing it at 2.17% but it is a little bit higher today. chinese indices, they closed higher as the ipo market is heating back up. that follows a 4-month ban with nine companies making a market debut today. the u.s. is also seeing an ipo slowdown with renaissance capital reporting a 38% drop in 2014. tech has been particularly disappointing. boxes ceo aaron levy saying there's a disconnect between public and private markets. he says we are still not in a tech bubble just to make that clear. meantime, the latest report from baker mckenzie shows it has not been a good year for cross border ipos but instead a year of the megamerger. let's bring in edward bipco who made the insight, that

announcement. we know it's the mna. i want to touch on ipos. it hasn't been a great year, 2015. >> no. >> i would say the outperformer has been hong kong. >> that's right. in some respects it's an unfair comparison because 2014 was a monster year with some really huge ipos including alibaba. so we've sort of dropped back to 2013 levels. but having said that, it's -- for most of the world it's been an absolute obstacle course. fears over political situations, commodities dropping, referendu referendums, political elections, all sorts of things. asia has been a bit of a bright spot for cross border ipos. really these are chinese companies coming to hong kong although i think the results have been skewed a bit because of megaipos. the top 3 out of china accounted

for almost $11 billion. >> if you can't ipo in your domestic mainland, shanghai markets, shenzhen markets, you go across the border to hong kong. seems intuitive. >> yes. >> 2016, how are ipo markets shaping up? >> i wish i had a krystal balc s crystal balance ball. we've gotten as good a result in 2015 as we have. unfortunately, we still have a few challenges left in 2016 including decoupling of interest rate policy, perhaps the brexit referendum and we still have commodity prices and volatility. >> you would think that volatility might move a little bit lower once we do see a certain path that's going to be unveiled by the fed later on this week.

and maybe once rates are higher the megamerger trend will come to a halt. it's been rising at the expense of ipos. maybe the outlook is a lot more rosie than you painted. >> i certainly hope so. it's my practice. it's going to be interesting. it will come down to how trading starts. >> absolutely. we take a look at some of the ipos that are venture capital backed, that's been a big trend over the last couple of years, but it's really dropped off the cliff in 2015. that was such an underperformer. why do you think is that? is it because the bcs have pushed the ipos to exit too soon? was it not at the right price? what's behind that? >> the longer term tend is you did see pe exits not done in the right way in 2013. i think they learned their lesson in 2014. a lot of it was just holding on to a piece of the company to show some skin in the game.

i think it's partly the market cleared in 2014. it was just, you know, sort of years and years of pent up demand being cleared but also the mna valuations are so robust. >> speaking of mna, we have this beautiful wall up right now, the big mna deals of the year, 2015 was the year of mergers and acquisitio acquisitions. was it a record year for deal flow, pfizer, charter time warner, are we taking the wall, guys, at some point? since you're talking about clearing, 2015, did it clear all the pent up i guess deal action or is 2016 waiting tore more the same. >> on the mna snide. >> yes. >> i think it's more of the same. there's still more to come. >> okay. even with interest rates going up? i mean, does that make sense to

you? >> well, i think that's right. i think that there's still pe demand forex -- for exitexits. i think to the extent megamergers continue those often spin off companies, the ipo route at some point in the future. the mega mergers today may spell ipos in 2015. >> edward, good to see you. edward bibko, baker mckenzie. we're talking about the hiking of interest rates for the first time in ten years. i guess the sentiment is stay positive. that's the message from ten strategists surveyed by barron's. they say the s&p 500 could jump 10%. here's rick santelli for wall street's prediction for 2016. >> forecasters are cautious

about stocks going into 2016. strategists who have published a forecast for 2016 for the s&p 500 have an average estimate of 2200 for the index ending at the end of next year. that's 10% above current levels. perhaps more to the point, that's 4% higher than the index reads in may of this current year. wall street's reputation for always pumping up stocks and telling you that they're going to be going much higher is not being fulfilled right here. probably for the reasons, it seems late. the bull market is about to turn higher. for more than a year it's making it hard for strategists to feel as if investors should pay much more for companies that are not growing their earnings very much in aggregate. finally, of course, all the uncertainty about the federal reserve a superintendenting it's going to hike interest rates, exactly how the markets absorb that, nobody quite knows.

sometimes it's a good sign when you have the official handicappers of the market who are not very enthusiastic about how stocks are going to do. that could be from a contrarian perspective. net positive rather than having everybody be very greedy and expecting the market to go to big new hikes. >> that's new york and that's mike santoli. let's talk about politics. >> absolutely. a new nbc wall street journal poll shows donald trump leading the field with 27% support retaking the spot from ben carson. texas senator ted cruz has jumped into third place with 22%. let's get out to nbc's tracie potts. she has the latest from washington. now trump is attacking cruz. >> reporter: exactly, and rubio is attacking cruz and carson is attacking cruz. the story seems to be ted cruz. he is not on top but he is

certainly surging. he seems to have some momentum. a separate des moines register poll does show he's on top in iowa by 10 percentage points. that's huge. he has a big ground game in iowa which of course is the first in the nation. those caucuses are coming up in just under two months. cruz has been focusing on hitting every single county in that first state. at last report he's been to visit at least more than half of them. while that might not seem like the big picture, it really is. whoever comes out of iowa with a lot of momentum, that could affect a lot of those contests. brand new this morning, we have some numbers on who can beat hillary clinton on the democratic side. the interesting thing there is that while the top republicans, trump and krocruz who don't seeo beat her, carson and rubio can. >> what's interesting is trump hasn't suffered from his muscle and ban proposal. he's even gained in the polls. >> reporter: exactly.

he seems to be still on top when we see the republican debate tomorrow, he is still going to be center stage with the average of those recent polls. a lot of people thought, the more trump gets out there with more controversial proposals, the less likely he will be to win, the more we'll see his numbers drop and we're not seeing it. >> all right. tracie, thank you so much for that. nbc's tracie potts with the latest from washington. okay. so looks like they have kissed and made up, but apple music winning a deal with pop star taylor swift to be the exclusive home of a concert video from her recent world tour. swift who turned 26 years old on sunday, she tweeted a trailer for the video saying, thank you so much for all your birthday wishes. i do have a little surprise for you. the video will air on december 20th. now in june swift says that she put her album, "1989" on apple music after a bout with apple to

pay artists. apple shares insists they have the exclusive rights with taylor swift. well, we don't have trade but it's an up market but apple is going along with the broader market advances. huge deal for apple. we have the shares up by roughly 0.4%. the newest chapter of the "star wars" event will be awakened tonight. analysts are forecasting one of the biggest opening of all time as julia boresen reports. >> reporter: "star wars", the force awakens, opens tonight. expectations may be off because even if "the force awakens" ends up being the biggest movie of all time, it will be hard to break opening weekend records. no film has opened up with more than $100 million in december. take a look at the two biggest movies ever, "avitar" and

"titanic." 2.8 billion and 2.2 billion respectively. $77 million in "avitar" and 29 million for titanic. less than 1/5 of students are out of school on the film's opening day. that's not to say that it won't be huge. "the force awakens" selling tickets a full month before it hits theaters. analysts expecting 2 to $3 million in total box office with opening weekend forecasts ranging from 170 million to $240 million in the u.s. alone. "jurassic world" set the all time opening record with $208 million but that was in june. people have been lining up in hollywood a week in advance for no reason other than to be part of the excitement since reserve seats are available online.

there's no question that there's a huge amount of buzz about the film but it's the weeks that follow the opening weekend that could make the force awakens a record breaker as disney hopes to alert families for the two weeks that people are home for the holidays. >> this might be the "star wars" where carolyn finally watches one. what do you think? >> maybe. maybe not. i haven't watched a single movie. >> i know. 50-50. it depends on how -- yeah, we'll work on it during the break. still to come on the program, what a difference a week makes. south african assets rally after president zuma makes a u-turn in appointing another finance minister though he was the finance minister before. we'll get to the details after this. no matter how fast the markets change, at t. rowe price, our disciplined investment approach remains. we ask questions here. look for risks there. and search for opportunity everywhere. global markets may be uncertain.

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let's check in on the south african land. this is after hey late night decision by south african president zuma who's appointing gordhan as finance minister. the appointment of pravi pravipravin pravin gordhan represents a dramatic turn around. we emphasize the importance of listening to the people. gordhan was widely respected

from 2009 to 2014. what's old is new once again. absolutely. france's far right front national has failed to win a single seat in the second round of regional elections. party leader blamed tactical voting for the defeat and then a surge in moderate voters. let's git out to stefan who's in paris for the reaction. was that a big surprise, stefan? >> no, we're used to it. in france we usually vote in two rounds it's almost impossible for nonconventional political parties to make it to the second round. that's exactly what happened over the weekend. this is due first of all to a significant organization. more people went to vote yesterday compared to the first round of the election and this organization benefitted mainly to traditional political parties. it also confirms that french people will vote for political rivals to make sure that the

extreme right doesn't get into power in france. the socialist party withdrew its candidate to make sure that its supporters would vote for the conservative party and there were would make it impossible for them to win the local elections. that explains why although it wasn't in a very good position, they did not take control of any regions in france. the conservative party led by the former president nicholas sarkozy won this with seven regions out of 13 including the two most important ones in france in terms of economy, the ill de france which is a region and the region of leon. but still it's still not a huge difference. they predicted a severe defeat for the party of francois hollande.

it's not a fantastic victory. >> stefan, thank you so much for that. let's discuss this with rainbow murray with queen mary university. thank you for coming in. a couple of weeks ago we thought the front nationale was a serious force to be reckoned with. now it seems completely isolated. what's the verdict? >> i wouldn't say it's completely isolated. it's very difficult for them to win in the second round. that was in part by the fact that the socialist party withdrew. they had a chance by uniting the non-fn vote. but the fact remains that they won the first round and that makes them a serious threat to the 2017 presidential elections. they can't win but they could eliminate the socialist candidate. >> what sarkozy and what the republicans have done, they've turned a fairly right wing path. do you think that was really a response to fn, to front nationale or do you think now

they're moving back to the center? >> it was a controversial response that not everyone was happy with. they're probably going to be evicted because of her disagreement with sarkozy. another person who seriously disagrees with this tactic is jupe. he'll be the centrist candidate trying to move the party back to the middle ground. >> i think this all sets us up for the national vote though, doesn't it, rainbow? we're trying to figure out whether or not hollande, given his leadership during the paris attacks and victory at the paris climate discussions this weekend, doesn't have maybe a bit of a tail wind to get into it with sarkozy and his right leaning party when it comes to the national vote? >> it would be difficult to say it's been a good time for

hollande. he has been slightly resurgent in the polls. whether that bump is likely to last all the way through to 2017 is a different matter. the very strong performance of the front nationale is a threat that will repeat itself. in which case there's a risk that hollande might not resurge. thank you for joining us. russia has warned turkey to stop staging, quote, provocations against its forces in or close to syria. this is after a russian warship fired warning shots near a turkish fishing vessel in order to avoid a collision. the russian defense ministry said they failed to respond to the russian ship's early warnings. tens of thousands of brazilian protesters marched through the streets on sunday to demand president rou st seff's

impeachment. the turnout wasn't as great as it had been in previous protests. nancy halgrave joins us. the turnout wasn't as massive. >> fairly underwhelming, the turnout. 40,000 officially. they were hoping for hundreds of thousands. the organizers say, don't worry, this is just a warmup. their excuse is they only gave ten days' notice for the protests to take place. some people didn't know about it. their plan is to kick it off again. they expect to fight the issue. it goes down to the impeachment process we've seen kicking off in congress. what's important to stress is that the impeachment process still requires a review from the committee within congress in order to actually call a vote in the lower house. right now that process has been suspended by the supreme court. they're reviewing the process it took to come up with the members sitting on that committee. there are some concerns about 30% of those 65 congressional members are facing some kind of criminal charge.

that gets out beyond the scope of the criminal allegations to bribery that are shaking brazil at the moment. >> wasn't the supreme court being lobbied to hold up the proceedings? >> absolutely. when they joined the committee rousseff's committee thought they could put neem favorable to rousseff. that's not the case. now they're wondering whether or not her support is waning. whether or not that goes forward that can raise consequences. if they get 2/3, it goes to the senate. then there's a 180 day trial. so very long, drawn out process. it could not come at a who time for brazil. inflation hitting a 12-year high, above 10%. oil prices not doing them any favors as well. some analysts say impeach. is positive for the stock. when the impeachment first took place we saw a boost.

>> you mentioned commodity prices. you mentioned the rise in inflation. isn't the biggest worry for the brazil oneconomy the fed interest rate hike? >> not doing them any favors. nothing is getting done on a structural level in brazil. so preoccupied with the impeachment proceedings. it's stretching outside of petrovos. they're saying the one factor, so much bad news factored into brazil, the one thing people aren't factoring in is the possibility of bank runs. >> just in time, by the way, for the summer oliympics that they'e hosting in a year's time. we have that, a positive push from the holding of the world cup, the olympics. some people say maybe the olimb mix piet have a feel-good factor. >> the concern is normally that would promote a stimulus, building, infrastructure. so many have been side lined and

not able to get their work done. a lot of concerns here for exactly what infrastructure holdup we'll see going into the olympics. >> nancy, thank you so much. nancy holgrave with the latest from brazil. a new poll shows donald trump leading the gop field with 27% support retaking the top spot from ben carson. texas senator ted cruz has jumped into second place with 22% up from 10% in october. now he's resurrected his george w. bush's impression. the comedian lobbed jokes at the gop candidates but took special aim at front-runner, donald trump. >> then you have this knucklehead. with the hair. and the 100 foot wall. bring that picture back.

i tell ya something, whenever i get into a bad mood i picture his big fat orange oompaloompa face. >> attacking ted cruz. >> i love will ferrell. the reason -- i guess the gist of that monolog was that he said that the gop -- the race is just so messed up. he goes, i'm just going to run again. why not? >> why not? >> we'll get you more. we'll get to the next hour. let's leave you with a look at u.s. futures so far.

hi, hi, everybody. good monday morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm susan li. >> i'm carolyn roth. these are your headlines from around the world. u.s. futures are pointing higher shaking off the junk bond market jitters that sent stocks into the red on friday as investors are trying to position themselves ahead of the federal reserve. third avenue reportedly gives its ceo the boot just days after the firm liquidates its junk bond fund and bars investors. also on thin ice, the chief executives of yahoo! and dow