welcome to worldwide exchange. >> these are your headlines from around the world. countdown to lift off less than ten hours to go until one of the biggest market events of the year as federal reserve policy makers announce their rate decision. stocks are steady after the dow and s&p mark the biggest day while the euro trading higher against the u.s. dollar. >> terror taking center stage as the presidential candidates flash over how to keep them safe with future attacks with donald trump getting most of the heat. >> donald is great at the one

liners but he's a chaos candidate and he would be a chaos president. he would not be the commander and chief we need to keep our country safe. >> congressional leaders and white house agree funding the government until september and avoiding a shutdown. good morning, everyone. it is day two of the fomc meeting and we're counting you down to one of the most highly anticipated market events. ahead of that let's go through one of the asset classes. what we're seeing is a tiny bit of vying but not too much. cac 40 up by .5%. only a little bit of under performance and this follows a sharp rise in yesterday's trading session. they jumped by roughly 3%. we're seeing quite a bit of volatility on this side of the

pond too. u.s. futures are indicating a higher start to the trading session. a little bit more positive than an hour ago. the nasdaq, s&p and dow jones up by .3% each. this is after session highs in yesterday's trading session but still racking up nice gains around 0.9%. all s&p 500 sectors in the green with energy and financials leading in part because we did see that continued bounce back in oil prices. now speaking of the commodity complex let's show you what we are. we're seeing wti crude pulling back once again. now 37. brent crude at 37.68. that spread narrowed dramatically over the last couple of months. brent crude off by 2% after yesterday we did see that bounce back but i guess that wasn't very long lived. spot gold up by .5% at 1065. also quick check on the u. s. yield curve. it has been flattening and the

two year treasury note yield at less than 1%. that's obviously the sensitive rate but the 10 year treasury note still fairly low compared to what a lot of people were expecting. 2.69%. you can expect that would be closer to 2.5 or 3% when the fed gets ready to hike rates. a little bit of flattening though we did see that yield on the back of the better than expected cpi data yesterday. last but not least what zero dollar is doing. 10922. unchanged on the day. but the dollar position pointed to the bank of america meryl lynch. still three times more crowded than any other trade out there. that's quite telling isn't it. >> that will largely depend on the decision but exactly what janet yellen depends on the

decision. the fomc data. markets continue to price in a hike but it's the price that remains contentious. we take a look at the split here, it will all determine on whether or not this will be a dovish hike if the hike comes today. wall street expects three more rate rises in 2016. that's according to a median forecast in the latest cnbc fed survey but as you can see from this chart opinion remains divided among various analyst calls. now a third expects just two hikes. the same expects as many as four taking place next year but 21% are look at three and fed chair janet yellen will out line the strategy. she believes a strategy can be reached and sought to calm concerns about the pace of tightening once the fed makes it's first move. speaking earlier this month at the economic club of washington yellen underscored the risks of waiting too long to raise rates.

>> where the fomc to delay the start of policy normalization for too long we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. more over, holding the federal funds rate at the current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk taking and thus undermine financial stability. joining us now is strategist investment. we just heard janet yellen speaking about the risks of waiting too long. do you think there's a risk of the fed going too early. >> i'm more concerned about this inflationary pressure. we're talking about not meeting the expectations for the last four years. you have seen a report about the

whole middle income. it's shrunk first time in a minority compared to 1970. the largest cycle points to disinflation and my view is that -- let's say fed doesn't go now and it makes a mistake it can always go next time but if you go now and then if you have it you can't put the same thing back the way you did now. so i would earn more in the signs that i'm not concerned about inflation. if there's a concern about inflation it's that we don't have one. >> that's a failure on the part of the central bank. and not just the fed. is it realistic to assume through qe through the stimulus that the central banks can still reach inflation of 2%. >> i doubt it. what you have done is why i keep coming back to the whole middle income. the middle income really

supports the growing growth of the economy and asset price. of course fed by itself cannot do everything. you have seen what has been missing. i don't see you get one in next year because it comes only in 2017. so i have a feeling that people pricing them up next year were disappointed. >> so bear in mind your assumptions rather dovish hike on the cards. how should investors be positioning themselves? is this still upside to the equities. >> we have seen it in the last couple of weeks. dollar strength is not my scenario. it's going to give balance and then you would see some rally because it's up 9% over the last ten days. >> what about the dollar index? i was pointing to some of the positioning we're seeing in the dollar. it's still one of the most crowded trades out there in any

of the asset classes. how much further will the positions have to be paired back to actually make sense to a lot of investors? >> i think it will probably get paired back more but we live in the world of short-termism. between middle east and thinking everything is sort. same with inflation. i think you're going to have outside balances and then you see 4% moving in index. that shows you what it's about. i think a lot of these will be paired down. >> thank you so much. strategist at head of investments at cross bridge capital. >> it's hard to believe but it's not just about the fed today? >> what? it's not. >> surprised to know that but we'll give you a run down of what else to watch this tading day. there's a few pieces ahead of that crucial decision. november housing starts are released at 8:30 a.m. eastern expected to have rebounded last

month. at 9:15 november industrial production predicted to draw for a third straight moresing concerns about the strength of 4th quarter. joy global before the opening bell and fed ex and oracle after the close. >> still to come on the close, luxury fashion is seeing a slow down. we get the latest view from the cat walks of milan. that's next. don't want to miss it. you can't predict...

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these are the headlines. investors counting down to the fed decision with the dollar and european stocks holding steady. candidates square off in the last debate of 2015 with jeb bush going after donald trump. they agree a massive tax and spending plan to avoid a midnight shutdown. now anything coming from donald trump is always very entertaining so i don't want to keep this from you. the trump organization says the u.k. court decision on the golf course shows the scottish government's foolish, small minded mentality and that court decision was the britain's top court. they have rejected trump's bid to stop wind farms near the scottish golf course.

now scotland has heavily criticized mr. trump's proposing for a ban coming to the united states last week and he has really received foit. they ordered the top court decision to approve the scheme was actually flawed. so very harsh wording coming from the trump camp here and the reasoning, trump's reasoning was that those 11 offshore turbines on the northeastern coast of scotland, they would spoil the view from the nearby greens of the multimillion dollar golf complex. >> never one to shy away from criticism there. those that disagree with him. not a huge surprise but strong statements from mr. trump. meanwhile u.s. congressional leaders and the white house reached a deal on a massive tax and spending deal that will fund the government through september. that avoids a possible shutdown at midnight. house speaker paul ryan is

urging federal republicans to support the measure such as delaying portions of obamacare but also includes many priorities for the democrats as well. thousands and senate are expected to pass the bill by the end of the week. as part of that tax and spending bill republican leaders agreed to lift the ban on u.s. oil expor exports. congress must still pass it and president obama must sign it into law. now lifting the ban has been a key issue for republicans and the oil industry. but the deal would also adopt environmental and renewable measures sought by democrats including wind and solar tax credits. >> now mexico auctioned all of the 25 exploration fields on offer in the country's latest oil tender. it's a step forward in the privatization of the oil industry. they confounded fears that the falling price of mexican crude. the largest bidders in the field lost out to smaller players.

peak oil production is expected to reach 77,000 barrels per day and attract $1.1 billion in investment. >> u.s. antitrust regulators aren't satisfied with offers to win approval for the merger and may seek more. they're extending the deadline for closing the $26 billion deal for april 30th. they will continue discussions with the justice department. and has launched a legal action and baker hughes pushing higher by 1.2%. shares in prada sharply lower in hong kong at one point hitting a record low. this after they missed forecasts. the luxury italian retailer was also hurt by a stronger dollar in the united states. claudia is in milan with more details. what are the key takeaways here.

>> yes, well, good morning, we are certainly seeing a slow down in china. there's no question that this is happening. sales did fall by 38% in the third quarter due to the slow down in china. but overall for the full year we are still seeing or actually for the first nine months we're still seeing prada in positive territory. they were up by 1.2% but this third quarter is putting in focus the luxury sector because it is also coming out as we are entering this very important quarter. so it will be interesting to see what happens in february since we hear out from the luxury operators including prada. as far as prada is concerned to face the slow down in terms of high cost it will be the slow down opening of stores. they have 600 stores that doubled in number in the last five years so that's one thing they're going to do as well as

closing down some stores that they do have. of course they are going to continue to try and increase the attractiveness of the brand of their products and the ceo of the group says they will not slow down on investments. so they're not willing to do that so cutting cost is not going to be easy for prada and not easy in the luxury sector. so we'll continue watching this stock as well as the luxury sector overall. >> thanks for that. prada not the only high end retailer taking a hit. there's been a number of cuts in the luxury space today. hsbc lowered it's price target on burberry to 1,500. however weaker momentum is not structural. if we could take a look at how shares are trading off 0.4% in london but if you check out the 30 day move off nearly 10%. >> rbc trimmed it's price target

to 16 euros to 18 euros. partly driven by warm weather will lead to weaker performance in the fourth quarter. quick check of shares of monc monclear. >> millennials are finding it tough to get on the property ladder. what it takes for them to get through the door. next after this short break. nsh

. well, the fed countdown is fully underway with a decision in just under nine hours now and the fomc is widely expected to raise rates. kayla explores the impact on the financial sector. >> there's a whole sector of ways a rate hike would impact banks. on the good side they'll be incentivized to lend out the deposits and reinvest them at higher rates and portfolio values could go up too. they will have to dish out higher fees to account holders and to some fund managers and more expensive loans on the consumer side. they'll have to set aside more money for potential fault. it will pen fit them and if you

were to pay a bank trade know that these banks will benefit to different degrees. most banks laid out how a 100 basis point rate hike will layout their net income. it will rise more than 11%. jp morgan about 7%. citi 4% and barclays estimates morgan stanley will rise about 4% as well. they actually don't break out this number and the regionals which a lot of people are playing actually have a lot of energy exposure too which is another tough variable to solve for. >> these earnings won't happen overnight and there could be an added wrinkle. they have actually taken way down the earnings estimate for these banks. and history does show the trade pays off. they generally sell off in the

week following a first rate hike. they've had four of those in recent history but if you play it six months to year after those are some pretty, pretty sizable returns that will have investors and financials seeing green at least according to our data. if you're willing to be patient which you would probably have to be to see that 100 basis point rise since it will after all be gradual it could be finally a winning trade. back to you. >> u.s. november housing starts are projected to rebound from a disappointing october that saw housing starts shrink by 11%. starts hit the lowest number since may and were well below market expectations but the bigger question is really how is the u.s. housing market going to fair in the face of a lift off in rates? squoini joining us live from miami is jeff taylor. thank you so much for getting up early for us. there's probably no other sector that's benefitted as much as the housing sector from the low interest rate environment.

currently 30 year mortgage rates are at around 4% in the face of tightening are they going to be rising to above 6% again? 5%? >> i don't think -- i think we'll see 5% in 2016 and most interesting as we see the rate probably rise about .25% what we're going to see in 2016 is i think the strengthening of the purchase market. i find it a little counter intuitive but what you'll see after the first rate increase is people sitting on the sidelines saying do i really want to buy a house? they'll probably go into the market and look for the first time home purchase. people thinking about listing their house are going to go ahead and list their house so we'll actually see a spike here in the next, maybe in early spring type housing market in the next four months and then in a second rate increase hike which will come probably sometime in spring you'll probably see some of the markets start to stabilize as far as housing goes. you're going to see much more focus on a purchase market in

that refinance market start to sell off since we haven't had a hike in over ten years. >> we are going into the election season next year. do we actually know what the republicans versus the democrats have planned in terms of housing? i know that both were partly to blame for the demise of the government funded agencies. so do we know what the policies actually look like? >> you know, that's a huge question and i don't think anybody has a clear answer to exactly what they're going to do. but what i will tell you is the books that are being originated are are the cleanest in history. the delinquency rates are the lowest in history. so many aspects if it's not broken are really hard to fix. so i think there's not a clear plan out there right now but that will certainly be the main topic of discussion as you head into the next election four year cycle. >> and jeff, presumably there's still a reluctance from politicians to push new home

ownership like the days we used to see but you're seeing a bit of demographic challenge and the trend we're seeing with millennials being more reluctant is that to suggest there's deals being found outside of the main urban areas. >> also as you see the rate increase you'll see the banks start to realize we just lost that huge refinance stream. how can we get more creative with prudent lending that's going to target specifically the millennials and how they can afford it. they may still be a little bit tight but i think they'll hook to the suburbs and affordable housing. you'll see a lot of the big banks coming up with morgan products to see their needs going forward. especially in the second half of 2016. >> does that trend then really create additional head winds for the home builders themselves considering how it takes place out of the main urban centers as well. >> i think they have it pegged

down. they are really filtering toward that move. i think the home builders are in good shape but it's location, location, location. are they buying in the cities where they feel confident about their job where is the jobs are growing in san francisco and new york and if they're going to the suburbs they have to make sure that they have the demand directly out there. so i'm pretty neutral. >> reminder we'll get the latest u.s. housing start data a little bit later. jeff taylor, thank you for joining us. that's co-founder and managing partner on digital risk. >> we get a full analysis of last night's rate as they make sure to stay off each others christmas cart list. a higher open is what we're expecting. the dow jones seen up almost triple digits. u virus hits big. with aches, chills, and fever, there's no such thing as a little flu.

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welcome to worldwide exchange. >> these are your headlines from around the world. countdown to lift off. less than nine hours to go until one of the biggest market events of the year as federal reserve policy makers prepare to announce their rate decision. stocks in europe hold pretty steady after the dow and the s&p lock their biggest two day gains in nearly two months while the euro is trading higher against the dollar.

presidential candidates clash over how to keep the u.s. safe from future attacks. >> donald is great at the one liners. but he's a chaos candidate. he would be a chaos president. he would not be the commander and chief we need to keep our country safe. >> a new budget bill, congressional leaders and the white house agree a massive tax and spending plan funding the government until september and avoiding a shutdown. all right, good morning it is 10:30 here in the u.k. 5:30 in the u.s. thank you for joining us on the show. the s&p 500 is seen up by roughly 10 points or so. dow jones seen up by triple digits. now 101 points the nasdaq set to open higher to the tune of 31 points. this is after a broad based

prefederally in yesterday's trading session. all sectors in the s&p moving higher but we did see that out performance in the financials and energy on the back of commodity prices. european markets look like. this we're seeing cac 40 up by .5%. and pushing higher to the tune of .07%. that strengthened throughout the session. we got the pmis that were better than expected. nancy. let's take a look at some of today's other top stories. global payments have struck a deal to buy it's smaller rival for $14 billion in cash and stock. it will pay $100 a share. that's a 17% premium to the closing price. the combined company will have more than 2.5 million customers worldwide. and jumping 12% in after hours trade and just there in frankfurt, moving up 18%.

global payments off almost 1% in germany. now advanced auto parts could be on the auction block. street insider reports the u.s. auto parts retailer is exploring a possible sale after being approached by at least one suitor. a deal could be worth up to $200 a share although the sales process is still in the early stages. it has more than 3800 stores in 40 u.s. states. at the moment, advanced auto moving up 8% in frankfurt. >> amgen is raising it's quarterly dividend by 27% to $1 a share. the move comes after the bio tech company raised it's full year outlook in october after reporting 3rd queer earnings arising 50% on strong revenue from its arthritis drug and other treatments. rising 1% in after hours and german trade up .5%. u. s. house democrats plan to call mike pearson to testify at a hearing early next year about the steep price hikes for some

of the company's drugs. the house oversight committee could hold the meeting early in late january. republicans control the panel but democrats can select a witness of their choice. on tuesday, the committee chairman sent the fda a letter asking about the process of reviewing generic drugs as part of a probe into drug prices. >> terror, foreign policy, and national security emerged as the hottest topics of the final gop debate of 2015. republican presidential candidates dug in their heels against one another in a battle dominated by preplanned one liners. ted cruz and marco rubio traded attacks indicating they now believe themselves to be one another's most threatening rivals. cruz retaliated by lashing out at rubio over immigration. and another battle line was drawn by jeb bush who focused his efforts on attacking donald trump.

while trump be littled bush's campaign by saying the former governor didn't have the strength to be president bush battled back saying leaders don't attack and disparage other people. >> we need strength. we don't have it. when jeb comes out and talks about the border and i saw it and was witness to it and so was everyone else, they come across as an act of love he's saying the same thing now with radical islam. we can't have that in our country. it just won't work. we need strength. >> donald you're not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency. that's not going to happen and i do have the strength. >> well, joining us live from washington is ben white, chief economist correspondent at politico. pleasure to have you join us so early this morning. thank you. looking at your official comments following the debate you don't think much changed coming out of this debate but one thing that took you by surprise is the fight we saw between cruz and rubio because

going into it it was thought the front runners may have a go at each other but when it comes down to the fight we saw who do you think came out on top? >> it was a pretty even fight. i would give it to rubio by a narrow margin. i don't think he's going to see his numbers declined based on this but you're right that cruz and rubio now are vying to be the alternative to donald trump if at some point trump's numbers start to phase and republicans look for someone else that can fade in the general election. the path to that goes through each other now. and rubio thinks he has a big window to go after ted cruz on the nsa surveillance on national security and funding.

it would not be the safe bet on national security. i would give rubio the slight edge over ted cruz. >> but is that enough to get him ahead in iowa because we're only six weeks a head from the first contest in iowa. how do you expect him to fair there? >> i don't think he'll do especially well there. that's a battle between ted cruz and donald trump now with cruz up by a little bit in iowa. he may win that but as we've seen in previous campaigns mike buck yee won iowa. it's not necessarily a path to the nomination. rubio is banking on a better showing in new hampshire and south carolina and some of the other states that follow. rubio doesn't need to win iowa. he needs to have a descent showing and show momentum coming out of new hampshire. that's his strategy but you could see a ted cruz win in iowa. >> jeb bush showed some tease and a lot of people would agree and say it's too late to turn things around. and after this specific debate, the last one of 2015, a lot more

contenders on the republican side would actually drop out and the republican field will finally consolidate. >> it will start to consolidate. you can see rand paul out of this campaign as soon as the end of this week. some people have said i think once we get into 2016 a lot of these candidates will try to hang around until iowa and see how they fair. after that you'll wind up with trump, cruz, rubio, maybe chris christy that's done better lately. he is strong on national security, governor of new jersey and as a prosecutor there he prosecuted terrorism cases. and as soon as we get through iowa and new hampshire. we see it come down to three or four candidates. like rand paul and some of the people in the earlier debate will drop by the wayside. >> the focus of the debate was on terrorism and that was a big shift from what we saw happening in the november debate. it was a lot about the economy.

what do you think hillary clinton was thinking as they watched the debate. how would she reformulate her response to mr. cruz for example who is looking at bombing syria and iraq. >> as we know hillary clinton is fairly hawkish on foreign policy but i think she would say we're not going to be carpet bombing anyone because we would be killing scores of innocent people in iraq and syria if we were to pursue that kind of a stat ji. she's not going to back off and go after isis to destroy isis and be strong on blocking terrorism in the united states. but she will present a approach. you won't mention obama because obama's numbers on terrorism are very low. she is saying this would be a strategy that results in lots of innocent lives being lost and

americans don't want that. so she'll dial it back from what republicans are saying but also present a strong case for detroying isis. >> given this focus on national security and the fight against isis there was very little content when it came to the economy and given that we're awaiting the first fed rate hike who do voters see take on these challenges. >> obviously it's a big focus on terrorism. trump does well on that among republicans. those like his strength and projection of american greatness. he is a little bit less specific on what he would do. rubio has a lot of support in the business community and wall street that back jeb bush too but they like rubio as an alternative to bush as a candidate that understands

markets and the economy. and hillary clinton will be looking to run on the obama economy. she's hoping this doesn't slow the economy so much it makes it harder for her next year. she hopes growth continues so she'll be watching carefully what janet yellen has to say today. you'll want to hear yellen say if we get any signal that the markets are tanking or the economy is getting soft we'll back off on rate hikes. >> i'm sure plenty of the candidates will be weighing in after we get the fed decision. that's ben white, chief economist correspondent at politico. >> chapman university declared it safe to resume normal operations after reports of an armed man on campus. they lead an hour long investigation and search of the campus but no suspect was found. los angeles officials have opinion criticized for overreacting to an apparent hoax which lead to the shutdown of over 1,000 public schools.

let's get the latest from nbc news tracie potts in washington. a lot of people blame the los angeles officials were overreacting. what's the fall out? >> well, the fall out is going to be, you know, what this information was that lead to them shutting down the schools. this was a big deal yesterday. you're talking about tens of thousands of students in the second largest city in our country. now apparently the same information went to new york and new york's police chief that used to be in l.a. they decided not to shutdown the schools there so a difference of opinion and certainly the police in california were colored by the san bernardino threat. later this morning they'll be announcing a new terror alert system to the united states. there was a system supposed to

provide a lot more information but it could only be activated when there was a specific and credible threat. it has shutdown the schools. however this system has never been used because there hasn't been a specific credible threat to activate it here in the u.s. they want something in the middle to give people in the united states a better sense of when there is a risk or a heightened level of concern, maybe based on something here, maybe based on something overseas like the parliament building being attacked in canada. security was raised here but they didn't enact the system because there wasn't a specific thread here so later this morning we're going to hear how the government plans to revamp that. >> tracy, thank you so much for that. still to come on the show, bill ackman may be ready to put 2015 in his rear-view mirror. the billionaire investor is admitting this could be his worst year ever.

>> welcome back to the show. let's have a quick look at natural gas prices. they remain under pressure after falling to a 14 year low on weak demand for heating. prices are expected to continue to be suppressed by the unseasonably mild u.s. winter forecast to last through december.

protest has been at record levels while storage remains at all time highs. the main takeaway at least not another polar vortex until now. >> well, a year that many commodity investors would like to forget and across the board here and a frank admission to investors, 2015 could go down to the worst ever for his firm. let's go out to landon for more. >> good morning to you. one of the bigger stars made that emission and has been seen by cnbc. he says if the year ends with holdings at or around current values. even more so than 2008 during the financial crisis. the fund is down 19.7% in november a sharp contrast to

last year's 40% gain but investors are generally sticking with him asking for a minimal amount of money back. he says they haven't been forced to sell out of positions to meet redemption requests. amid bad bets in the energy markets. the average fund is down 4%. ackman tends to only make a hand full of bets and he pushes management. and he's seen much of profits eaten away by bets on drug maker valeant pharmaceuticals and specialty products that tumbled in the fourth quarter. ackman says he is sticking with valeant saying he doesn't believe the company's long-term earnings prospects have changed. they plunged 70% in august. but shares have recovered 16% on tuesday as ackman and other big investors bought more shares. uncertainty surrounding valeant

could start to disappear when the company updates investors on its 2016 outlook today. >> thank you for that. mondelez ceo says she is frustrated with the market's fast nation with activist investors. she is successfully running the snack food maker without their help. they have been offering suggestions on everything from global strategy to the amount of and dealing with their concerns is consuming a quarter of her time. mondelez shares in germany up by almost 5%. it's her job to cater and speak to their investors. but still. >> never a nice thing i'm sure. moving on u.s. congressional leaders and the white house reached a deal on a massive tax and spending bill that will be

through september. that avoids a possible shutdown through midnight. they're urging fellow republicans to support the measure which delivers wins for the gop such as a delay in portions of obamacare but also include miss priorities for democrats. the house and senate are expected to pass the bill by the end of the week. republican leaders have agreed to lift the 40-year-old u.s. ban on oil exports. the deal hasn't been confirmed by democrats and congress must still pass it and president obama must sign off on it as well. lifting that ban has been a key issue for republicans and the oil industry but the deal would also adopt environmental and renewable measures sought by the democrats. that includes extending wind and solar tax credits. let's get a check on oil markets. brent crude now off 2.7% while wti crude off about 0.8% but we have up until now really even seen that premium event already narrowing with wti. it was at the narrowest point

since january. simply on this news in the export ban in the u. s. being lifted. never theless, trailing at the moment. >> there's hardly a premium leftment almost nothing. it's less than a dollar. >> amazing which also raises questions over what impact if any this action will actually have. >> well, moving on a reminder of your headlines this hour. investors are counting down to the fed decision with the dollar and stocks holding steady. they square off in vegas in the last debate in 2008 and jeb bush going after donald trump. a massive tax and spending plan to avoid that midnight shutdown.

welcome back to the show.

it's day two of the fomc meeting and we're counting you down to one of the most highly anticipated market events of the year. we straw most broad based gains in all of yesterday's trading session. those are set to continue. seen up by roughly .6%. let's have a look at the u.s. yield curve and we've seen flattening ahead of the worse rate hike in more than a decade. the treasury yield is at 2.27%. we did see a session high close to that yesterday after the better than expected cpi number and the rate sensitive yield is just below 1%. the dollar index is little change today. it is just up by 0.1% but yesterday we saw the biggest daily move in over five weeks on the back of the cpi data. but a lot of people say get ready for profit taking as we're seeing the first rate hike from the fed and positioning is still

very, very heavy scrily skewed e upside. it's more crowded than any trade out there. >> you have to wonder once you get the statements from janet yellen after the decision because a lot of expectations on the emphasis of gradual that we will have a very dovish rate hike from the fed. if we take a look at the balance from the fomc, despite the dovish slant markets are continuing to price in a hike but it's now the pace of tightening that remains contentious. wall street expects three more rate rises in 2016 according to a median forecast in the latest cnbc fed survey but if you take a look at the differing opinions it's rather divided. a third expects two hikes next year and about the same amount expects as many as four and just 21% are looking for three. now fed chair janet yellen has used her last fua appearances to

outline the central bank strategy. she believes a decision can be reached and she also sought to calm concerns about the space of tightening once the fed first makes lift off. speaking earlier this month at the economic club of washington yellen underscored the risks of waiting too long to raise rates. >> were the fomc to delay the start of policy normalization for too long we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly oversho overshooting our goals. moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk taking and undermine financial stability. >> we'll have to wrap up the show. we wish you a very successful day of trading on this historic day for many. >> thanks for watching. squawk box is next. announcer: sunday's your last chance to save big

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good morning. it is, really. decision day at the fed after weeks and months, years of waiting could come to an end today. janet yellen and the central bank widely expected to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade. but then what? rough ride. why bill ackman is warning investors that this year could be his firm's worst ever. plus the race for the white house, republican presidential hopefuls square off in las vegas. we'll bring you the highlights. it's wednesday, december 16th, 2016 and squawk box begins right now. ♪

>> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> good morning, everybody. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe concerner and andrew ross sorkin. house speaker paul ryan telling republican lawmakers that congressional leaders in the white house reached a deal. the two sides agreed to tax and spending bill that would reach a deal. 2016 through the budget year and 40 year old ban on exports. we'll get into more on that. and we'll have more from last night's gop debate in just a bit. and check out the markets on this fed decision day. gains with the dow up by 150 point. and up by triple digits once again.