tv Fast Money CNBC December 16, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
5:00 pm
that is why you have to watch the express business at fedex, it is important. >> great point. and amazon, they are makingen road. pun intended. we are better go. thank you both. walely appreciate it. that does it for us on "closing bell" today. a historic day. "fast money" is up next. live coverage of this historic day continues. i'm melissa lee. the fed putting an end to the era of historic rates and hiker for the first time since 2006. he was on the fed today and in moments jeffrey gundlach with $80 billion in assets under management will join us live with his reaction to the monumental decision. but first let's get to steve liesman in washington, d.c. and steve, it does look like, according to the market reaction, the fed a thread of the needle on this one. >> yeah. and they delivered pretty much what was expected.
5:01 pm
not only did they hike rates 25 basis point to the range of 25 to 50. they are going to try to hit the middle of the range. but they signaled gradual rate rises in a moment. more on how yellen defines that. but she explained she is raising rates in order to not have to cut them later -- not have to raise them abruptly in the future. here is what she said to me earlier today at the press conference. >> we recognize that policy is accommodateive and if we do not begin to slightly reduce the amount of accommodation, the odds are good that the economy would end up over-shooting both our employment and inflation objectives. >> so what happens now? how quickly will rates rise? one thing you could look at is the fomc own forecast. the dots. 140 in 2016 and 240 in 2017 and
5:02 pm
the long run rate of 3.5%. compared to other rate hike cycles that is a very slow rate hike. how quickly will they happen. the market priced in three next year. but yellen went into detail explaining what it will not be. have a listen. >> gradual does not mean mechanical, evenly-timed, equally-sized interest rate changes. so that is not what the committee means by it. my guess is that the economy will progress in it a manner that is not sufficiently even. that we will decide to make eventually-spaced hikes. >> melissa, i guess this is sort of of our full employment project here. it is not every meaning and -- meeting and every other meeting. that would be a real frequent kind of thing or something you could count on. we are going to be guessing
5:03 pm
every meeting relative to the economy, melissa. >> steve liesman, thank you on this historic fed day. let's get straight to the markets. because we did see a rally across the board. so guy, what did you do today in your portfolio? >> i bought the gdx. bull miners. and we talked about it yesterday and the potential for gold to rally with the dollar coming off a count erin tewive thing today. i'm not a crazy bull going forward in terms of where it can go. but for the next few weeks, you could see a rally. quickly in terms the s&p, seeing a 20 to 20 point rally after the fed announces. we got it. and i thought we would fade. and we didn't get it. 2020 on the downside, critical. on upside. 2105 close on the s&p which is the high of november. now all of a sudden with an outside month of the down side, we have one to the upside.
5:04 pm
>> and you mentioned gold miners being a contrarian trade and we had yield and reits do well and financials and industrials do well. it seems like you were hard-pressed, pete, to find an area that did not do well off of this decision. >> energy. >> if you look at energy, part of the reason for energy is the idea that we watched oil go down 4% today. that certainly didn't help matters. but you look at the financials. they did scream to the upside. bank of america, one of the leverage, toward the fed. nice move. up toward the 18 level. we'll see if that could extend. the s&p on monday, the tip, the call buying in the final half hour, monstrous buying. in december they were going to expire on friday. they were doing that for the fed meeting and that is why i got rid of all of it. >> i didn't go higher? into year end we'll have more of
5:05 pm
a rally. >> we might. and if we see more option activity and we get into wednesday and thursday and friday, i didn't want to deal with that. but the 199 strike and the 202 and 210 strike very active. but all expiring friday. i think based on this. >> what did you do. >> to like energy and gold, you have to believe the dollar is going lower. so let's talk about this. the dollar started out lower on the fed announcement and moved above 98 and holding on to the 50. if you look at past rate hikes, the -- has gotten weaker. but to say gold is going to rally when we had almost the brink of systemic collapse last week and this week we've had china and the youan and all of the miners are close to a solvency point and that is a place you have to be watching. >> so you don't like that trade. did you buy anything today? >> i started covering shorts an the iwm so the russell, i
5:06 pm
thought small caps which were underperforming the s&p into this meeting. you have a tactical opportunity to say, guess what, we're now past this. and agree, in the short run we are past this. but for everyone to think the economy is okay. janet yellen talked up the economy today. >> today felt like a lot of window distressing. the s&p was above 2100 before the month. we went down to 2000. i expect it closed between 2100 and 2000. i think you could sell it there. from the early november lows in the s&p, we've been too lower lows and too lower highs. into friday, which is a big options expiration in the s&p 500, there is tons of open interest there, then you have a shot for it to close below 2050 where we were a couple of days ago. and one more point, since the
5:07 pm
december ecb move, we saw it come off and it is hanging around and the dollar goes higher. i'm playing it on eep and long calls. >> and the airlines screaming to the upside. delta and united, huge upside. nobody talked about it all day long. i was already in. i added to it. >> on the halftime report, jeffrey gundlach warned the fed should not be raising rates. he joins us on the "fast" line with reaction to the news. welcome to the show. the markets ripped higher across the board. you name the sector, it probably went higher. were you surprised by this reaction? >> not really. this is a huge market day and this is a long time in the making. the fed has been promising to raise rates in 2015. ever since september 21st when te realized -- they realized that not raising rates in september damaged credibility, they've been working for three
5:08 pm
months to rebuild the credibility. i think that was underlined by janet yellen's opening statement where she said the era of aextraordinary accommodation has hasn'ted. which is not new at all. way back we thought 3% was a low rate and moving from zero to 25, and the 25 to 50 is still extraordinary accommodation. so i'm reminded of george w. bush on the aircraft carrier with mission accomplished, i think janet may have jumped the gun. but you didn't get anything resembling the one and done type of language as people were forecasting. and i think we're now going to talk more about the fed in the weeks ahead than less about the fed. this is not an end point in the journey. if we get strong economic data, people will start saying the next hike is coming very quickly and they are behind the curve and if the data gets soft people
5:09 pm
will be talking about the -- jumping the gun and it was a mistake. so the dollar, i think, is not going to rally. i know there is talk about that already on the show here. the dixie has to prove itself. you need two closed above 100.33. and buy the rumor sold the news. i think junk bonds, run of the reasons they are selling off so much since september 21st is the credibility building case by the fed in the junk bond market and dropping, dropping, partially in fear, part of it commodities prices in fear of the fed raising rates. so the junk bond market went up a point today because of a relief rally. and so i think what will happen is much more talk about the fed than actually people expect. and there is a great contradiction right now between the dots and the prices of the two-year treasury. at 1%.
5:10 pm
the fed funds are going to be at 1.4% in a year. so the two nif year treasury yield is going higher. one thing traders should watch for is the five-year treasury which has humungous yield at 187 and bounced off that level many times and bounced off it. today we got to 178. if the five year treasury breaks through above 181, it is going to go up a lot. it might go up to 240. >> jeff, i have to ask you about your opinion of the economy right now because part of your prim is of why the fed should not have raised rates is financial conditions were worst from the september meeting and cited emerging market debts, the equity, junk bond markets. now with the fed rate hike and the uncertainty of looming hikes what, is your view. how bad could it get. could we see the r-word, recession? >> i would give it a one-third chance for 2016.
5:11 pm
the things not looking good, i talk about this, nominal gdp is not improving year-over-year. it is at quite a low level on gdp. and commodities prices, they hit again a new low today. the crb again hit a new low. and if the economy is so good globally in particular, you have to ask yourself, what is the crb index doing dropping 14% from september 17th, dropping 20 -- it is so big, i can't even quote it. almost cut in half since june of 2014. clearly lower commodities prices -- and the dollar centrallying. it is lower than in march and commodities prices are much lower. so don't blame that on dollar weakness. so if they can't find footing, it will be weaker rather than stronger. i heard dwindling economic growth. i thought that was a good phase. >> so how were you positioning yourself or thinking about buying or selling into the new
5:12 pm
year? >> you know, i haven't even made up my mind yet on 2016. i want to see how the market acts in -- through the end of next week digesting the fed move. so i'm actually looking for short-term interest rates to rise further. the two year treasury yield is trending higher and the five year will probably join it. and 2016, what i am committed to, is we're going to see a flatter yield curve in 2016. one thing to think about in the pace of tightening, when the fed starts tightening, the curve is steeper than it is today. the curve between the two year and the ten year is only 130 basis points. so if the tenure were to stay where it is and the fed raises rates we have an in verted yield curve in 2016. i don't think that will happen. because i don't think they could follow through on the dot projection but i think the yield is going lower. >> thank you. thank you for phoning in. jeff gundlach with his reaction
5:13 pm
with what happened with the fed today. one-third chance of a reaction. but for sure the yield curve will be flatter. pete, you like the financials, and if the yield curve is flat. >> that is an issue. then we won't get the kick we do. and that is why you have to be on your kn on your toes and be nimble. and the xlf, it seems like it is better moving to the upside. and it is broadly -- it is the investment and regional banks. >> i heard jeffrey say the dollar is going lower. he is not convinced on the strength of the commodities but this gets back to 2016, commodities and resources are oversold f. you get relief from the dollar, it is not broken through. >> we were talking about it last night, how does the dollar go down when you think about the easing going on over the world. ecb doubled down after seeing the market reaction. >> because you got the sense
5:14 pm
that the fed rate hike so they could cut. >> when he said the dixie has to make two closes over -- to me that is something worth trading for. playing for the break-out. people like those momentum trades. if it does break out, you'll have a strong move. >> the drrl is -- the dollar is consensus long and look at where we are. it sold off on the day. >> which is why even if it doesn't go lower, it goes flat. i think gold could rally. there is nothing transitory about the oil move. the pain trade being down and the s&p 500 being higher. the prove point is 2105. >> here is the most important takeaway i had, is that uncertainty will go into 2016 and that means heighten volatility and we've seen it in the last few weeks. >> for the last six months. >> and other than in aug and
5:15 pm
september. it is trading at a narrow range. >> we have news from the newsroom. dom. >> there may be some that agree or disagreement, but the icf said -- according to an imf spokesperson, it is the rate decision reflective of a strengthening u.s. economy. we believe that the fomc has indicated further tightening actions should be gradual and placed on clear evidence of wage or price pressures and on the incessant that the federal reserve will raise the 2% medium term objective. they look at the fomc decision and think it is reflective of a strengthening economy and believe the fomc should proceed going forward. so an interesting point of view coming from the international monetary fund. back over to you, melissa.
5:16 pm
>> dom chu, thank you for that. they are saying right on, janet. but do you agree? >> the next -- the next forecast they will get right will be their first. in my opinion. that is just me. good for them. i disagree. >> first rate hike since 2016 in the books. what happens between now and the next rate hike. the group of stocks that rally when the rates rise. but valeant slashes prices but the stock is rising any way. did the story just change on one of the most controversial stocks on wall street. >> and check out fedex and oracle. the big story. fedex and oracle higher after hours. both conference calls ahead when a very busy "fast money" comes right back.
5:17 pm
at&t knows the best kind of holiday... is the kind where everyone gets what they wished for. make this holiday extra happy when you buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones... like the samsung galaxy s6. buy one get one free. so spread some cheer. and capture every minute of it. right now at at&t, buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones.
5:18 pm
we're always looking for ways to speed up your car insurance search. here's the latest. problem is, we haven't figured out how to reverse it. for now, just log on to compare.com... plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest and hit purchase. now...if you'll excuse me, i'm late for an important function. compare.com.
5:19 pm
saving humanity from high insurance rates. welcome back to "fast money." now that the fed has put an end to a decade of interest rate. which sectors will do well. dom chu is at headquarters breaking it down for you. >> so, melissa, we looked back at the last three rate hike cycles, three, to see what the markets did between the first and second rate hikes and here is what we found out with help
5:20 pm
from our friends at ken show and colleagues at cnbc pro. crude oil averaged 9% gain between the first and second rate increases over the past three times it happened. gold and the ten year note fell half a%. and what about the stock market. the s&p averaged a loss of around 2% during those observations. from an industry group perspective, here were the best and worst performers. technology taking the lead. averaging a 3% gain between the first and second rate hikes and then households an personal products like clorox and proctor and gamble. the worst are the transportation and the auto stocks, seeing 5% declined during those periods. a lot to digest as we head into next year, melissa. but certainly it could be a very volati volatile first quarter, if history holds true and we looked
5:21 pm
at the last three observations because it may be more indicative of the current market. it is not a lot to go on here but a good slice of history for those wanting some color. back over to you. >> dom, thank you so much. and it is interesting and not surprising that the sectors that tend to do well after the rate increases, they are tied to the economy, which would indicate economy growth like crude oil, instance, dan, like the ken show. >> i do love the ken show. crude -- the sentiment is horrible. it is trading at lows. in 2016, it will set up as a great contrarian trade and set up the second rate increase. and then ken show will have more to go on the rate increase. and we talked about it last night. you want to go for yield in 2016 and i still like utility and i've been long the xlu. >> and i thought that was the head-scratching move. the strength in the utilities and the etf that tracks the reits, that is contrarian. >> you look at the ten-year and
5:22 pm
that has gone nowhere. in september, it is 230 roughly. i think it is upside down day with the fed hike because they are arguably raising because they have to. and the transports down 12% and look at fedex today. you are in a flight recession for the transports and that is why they are selling off. so the back drop isn't good. and having said that, oil will outperform. specially toward the end of 2016 chblt. i would stay in energy stocks. >> what happens after the first rate hike in the next six months, in the past rate period, that dom was looking at, xus outperformed u.s. equities. and you saw that play out in today's reaction. you saw europe and japan do well. and guy, you had the concern about what the rest of the world is doing in easing compared to us making other markets look better. >> and i'll say this.
5:23 pm
historically rate hikes, tim talked about it, because the economy is getting better. because they painted themselves into a corner and they had to do it which is why crude oil didn't rally because crude oil is in my opinion going down. and i think the dollar will go down in the short-term and i think the ten-year yield will go down because i think it will flatten. >> we have breaking news on pandora. let's get to sue herera. >> the shares have been all over the board. and the reason is that a judge has issued copyright royalty determination. it is a confusing ruling which accounts for the volatility as traders are looking through this particular release which we won't try to intertrent because it is so difficult. we were down 19% in extended hours trade on pandora. as they worked through the release they reversed the trade and up almost 10%. so we are watching it very
5:24 pm
closely. >> sue, thank you for. pete, yesterday your brother was talking about the options. >> huge. incredible interest and the volatility, over 300% in the front. so we are talking about huge volatility. people expecting a large move. the bulk of that going toward the upside. if this holds where it is now, this is a huge win for those folks because they were chasing this when it was below 13 and we are trading above 14. >> we'll watch that trade. as we head to break, it is not all about the fed. big reports from fedex and oracle. we'll hear from both ceo's in a moment. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money," on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here is what is coming up on "fast." >> the rate hike could mean big changes for your portfolio. vanguard's fixed income will tell what you you need to do now
5:25 pm
with your money. plus we know you can't fight the fed. but how about fighting uncle sam. because congress did something that sent one beaten group of stocks soaring today. we'll tell you what they are and how you can profit when "fast money" returns. and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction,
5:26 pm
stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. insurance coverage has expanded nationally and you may now be covered. contact your health plan for the latest information. i watch for the perfect moment.a the one nobody else sees. and when i find it- i go for it. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus, powerful mobile apps so you're always connected, wherever you are. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. ashley bryant, you are a teacher of small children. that's right. i have read it is the hardest job in the world. that's why i'm here. can you... i can offer advice from the accumulated knowledge of other educators... that's wonderful but... i can tailor a curriculum for each student by cross-referencing aptitude, development, geography...
5:27 pm
5:28 pm
shares of valt pharmaceutical surging higher after the second straight day after the company slashes guidance. are things changing for one of the most controversial stocks. >> meg what is happening here? >> lowering the guidance but rallying after that. people feeling more confident about where the business is going and after the walgreen's sale announced yesterday. and mike green answering questions in humorous and intense ways. we have a clip here. take a listen to what he said. >> i'm proud of everyone here. i'm very proud of the people that work at valeant. i'm very proud of the business model that we've created. and it is going to be very successful. if the board wants to fire me, they are welcome to fire me. but until they do, we're going to get through this thing. >> in answering a question about how confident he is and
5:29 pm
committed to staying at valeant. he was pissed at seeing the citron research report. he used that word. >> family show. >> i'm sticking around. this is a family show. i'm just reporting the facts here. but it was a very interesting meeting. and you are seeing the stock rally and move past philidor and filling it in with walgreens which is a trusted name. there are things overhanging. government investigations and their own investigation into what was going on at philidor and pearson wouldn't comment on that. but investors reacting positively. >> meg, thank you. meg tirrell. let's talk about this. and what is outstanding and from the wall street research i read today, still outstanding in the minds of investors is the role of reducing price and whether or not you get the volume to make up that for that price give-back for walgreens. >> good job for the update. and number two, they changed the
5:30 pm
business model a few months ago, it might work, it might not. but the volumes but better there. but it doesn't matter. there is so many shorts in the stock. where is it going, 125. the 50% correction from 180 a few months ago. >> 125 important level on the stock. if this deal is successful, the question will this increase or hasten the demise of the open formulas. this is what is making the companies -- it is like they've acknowledged, we're going in a different direction and the market is endorsing -- i think the deal is very important. others will follow. >> but you want to see 120? >> 125 is a level where i would take something off the table. that is a tough level. >> and the fed raising rates so if you own a bond mutual fund, what should you do now. the man from vanguard investments will join us with all of the answers. we're back after this.
5:34 pm
raises interest rates for the first time in a decade. the s&p surged 1.5 and the dow gained 224 points. utilities the brightest sector seeing the biggest one-day gain since september, up 2.5%. coming up, an industrial breakout, in the midst of the fed talk, general electric hit a seven-year high so why are traders betting the stock is about to run out of steam. we'll explain. and plus the man behind the biggest bond fund. he has a play-by-play of what you need to do on the heels of the fed decision. but first the cnbc team coverage begins on fedex and oracle. josh in san francisco on the oracle call. morgan, we start off with you. >> great. so taking a look at fedex so far, excuse me, beating estimates and reaffirming full-year 2016 guideness
5:35 pm
restructuring in the express unit and despite weakness in the industrial production. on the earnings call, the chairman and ceo saying the peak shipping season has been record-breaking so far. >> the record number of holiday shipments fueled largely by the steady rise of e-commerce are flowing through the fedex global networks. monday we picked up over 26 million packages globally. we have experienced heavy ground volumes in the north east, our team members have delivered to the challenge and our ground system is running as regular as usual. >> and so the busiest days this season have exceeded forecasted and more than doubled average daily volume. and despite contraction of u.s. exports due to the high u.s. dollar and low world gdp trade growth, the door-to-door express continues to grow due to e-commerce and tnt express were
5:36 pm
brought into the companies portfolio especially in europe. now fedex continues to see moderate growth in the global economy with u.s. gdp forecast at 2.4% for this calendar year. slightly lower than the september outlook and 2.6% growth in 2016 led by gains in consumer spenting in the near term. the company saying it is seeing a shift in trade patterns due to the stronger dollar and increased imports and contracting exports. this call is still going on but right now shares are up more than 5% in after hours. back over to you. >> morgan, thank you. and we've been telling you that transports have been underperforming. fedex no exception. going into the quarter. down 8% in the past month. so were we discounting a bad holiday quarter. >> we've seen it before. and the margin cutting, the
5:37 pm
ground express very strong and the international people is what people should be excited about for the long-term. 13.5, after moving $10, still only 2.5% in 2016, you stay in thirks you are wearing shades of ups. >> yes. when you look at this company. tim is talking about 13 on 2016. that is the low end. that is the low end. give or take the range. the easy read-through was amazon. they have huge growth. 22% on the growth. that is going to fedex and they are taking advantage of that. a third of the ground. that is impressive. >> and oracle, let's get to josh lipton with the latest on that call. josh? >> well, melissa, that oracle stock given up the modest gains we saw initially after the report after oracle katz ceo said eps was 63 cents to 66 cents and revenue growth flat to
5:38 pm
3%. but larry allison isn't worried. listen to how he talked about the cloud business and how it should grow from here. >> oracle is a first company to market a complete cloud from mid-side to large enterprises. by pioneering this market we have become the market leader with over 1500 cloud erp customers. cloud erp is now our fastest-growing fast application sweep. >> the co-ceo said they should see improved service next year. and when it come totz cloud, they have better people and better people. i'll get on the call and bring you more headlines as they come. >> josh lipton. thank you. >> and the stock was down 13% on the day. they guided down.
5:39 pm
they missed the guide down. a slight miss here. they talk about the software and the platform is a service. it was 30% year-over-year. but here is the thing, the company is not growing and sales force is growing fast and they are deadlocks -- ellison is speaking to sales force when they say $1.5 billion in sales. i don't think they do it without a quick and looking at work day or service now at some point in the first half of 2016 to accelerate the cloud growth. >> so in a would you rather? >> i'm so far ahead of you, sister, we are ahead on time. >> what about sales force. >> throw that in. >> would you rather -- rather. >> rather. >> since i'm not sure she was going to ask that question. >> okay. the answer. >> sales force trumps oracle, amazon trumps sales force. >> interesting. >> this is not the cloud he is
5:40 pm
talking about. erp. we are not doing that. >> get off my cloud, sister. right to the stones. >> go ahead. the fed has finally raised rates to what is the first thing you should do if with your bond fund. vanguard will be here to explain. and other stocks soaring. where the sudden strength is coming from and if it is here to stay. much more "fast money" straight ahead.
5:43 pm
this action marks the end of an extraordinary seven-year period during which the federal funds rate was held near zur to support the recovery of the economy from the worst financial crisis and recession since the great depression. >> that was janet yellen speaking earlier today following the first rate hike in almost a decade. so here is the question. if you own a bond fund, which you likely do either directly or in a retirement account, what should you do now. the man behind the biggest bond fund. greg davis from vanguard. great to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> if somebody has a bond fund, it is probably a vanguard bond fund. you have nearly 9 billion in assets.
5:44 pm
what should you be looking at in terms of holdings and what should you be careful of it. >> i think you should maintain perspective. the maybe tenants still prevail. it is a great way to provide diversification to your portfolio. and maintaining bonds makes sense for most investors. >> but you have to look at value here and you do like investment grade. and that is important. we've heard so much in the past few days about the high yield. you don't find value there? >> we are primarily a investment grade shop. that is our universe. when you think about what happens over the past five years, given an environment where rates were low, many were down the credit spectrum, taking on more risk by investing in high yield and emerging markets. and as rates normalizing, you could have those sectors be under pressure over time. >> as you look across the
5:45 pm
investment grade and corporate bonds, spectrum, in terms of sectors, et cetera, has what the fed done changed your outlook at all? >> it has not. we've been accounted for -- we've been expecting the fed to raise rates by 25 basis points. and we thought they would have dovish language and we saw both of those things come to course. and we saw them ratchet down for the median fed funds in 2017 and 2018 which again points to the fact they want to be gradual and it is a dovish tightening. >> so which sectors are finding the most value. >> we still see value in the financial sector and asset-backed securities and agency-backed mortgages. so we still think that investment grade credit and being diversified makes sense even a tightening cycle. >> i know you don't invest in high yield, but are there concerns in the high yield market and there could be other
5:46 pm
funds di funds liquidating, does that symbolize any trouble ahead. >> i think that was a corner case. at the end of the day that was a portfolio invested in the distressed area of the market which isn't where high yield investors focus time and energy. that is a one-off type scenario. so that won't cause broad scale selloff in long-term or any contagion coming from that. >> greg, we'll leave it there. we hope you'll join us on "fast money" soon. >> thank you very much. >> greg davis of vanguard. could be the new bond king. >> you just donned him the new bond king, $9 billion in assets. so would you go investment grade? >> no question. huge place. i think the credit in the high grades that have been pushed out, the credit curve has been affected here. but the message here, he's
5:47 pm
saying is that the long end is flattening. he thinks the yields are heading lower. maybe consistent with what guy says. in that environment i would stay shorter duration. >> if anything, yes, we've seen the twos and that curve move higher but we have lower duration in environment where people are unsern. >> and lee cooperman was on, on the noon show and talking about high yield. if you are getting away from energy, he is comfortable and would consider those type of areas, but if it is energy, he would like to back off. >> he said he wasn't fearful of contagion. but if commodities price go lower there is more high yield debt going into the distressed categories which shows contagion. this is how it happens. no one knows. and a guy with a trillion dollars in assets in credit instruments is going to say right now i don't feel there is a whole heck of a lot of risk of contagion. this is reminiscent of 2007 in a lot of ways and i won't be so
5:48 pm
complacent about it. >> and a news alert on third avenue. to dom chu in the newsroom. >> i know you were speaking about the third avenue fund. so we have news that third avenue has issued a statement saying that the s.e.c. has greated them an exemption so they could keep the withdraw gates up. they could still bar investor withdraws from the fund and the s.e.c. has signed off. but have done so with a number of stipulations, including, according to a s.e.c. spokesperson, that the commission has required the fund put in place investor and market protections including ongoing s.e.c. over site and fair process for condition of the approval of the order. so they still need to conduct a fair, orderly and transparent process for liquidating the assets. as a result of actions, shareholders will be able to see the daily net asset values of the fund as this liquidation is going on. so a number of things developing
5:49 pm
here. but third avenue has received s.e.c. approval for the gates for investor withdrawals, assuming it does submit itself to oversight and it does this transparent sale of assets in an orderly fashion. back over to you. >> the fact they throw up gates and this is a retail investor vehicle, it is not a hedge fund, that was sort of historic and here for the s.e.c. to say keep those gates up, that is okay. >> gates are there to protect investors too. and if there is selling, investors get sold at the bottom. they make this out to say they did something wrong. they invested in securities that went belly up or lost value but they are protecting people by slowing down the process. look at where the junk was a few days ago. if had you to sell at the lows. >> that is a good point by you. but pete talked about the put in the hyg.
5:50 pm
i don't think it is over. we've bounced back above 80 which another critical level. another leg down doesn't bode well for what we are talking about. ge hitting the highest levels so why are savvy traders betting against the stock. your watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. back after this.
5:53 pm
welcome back to "fast money." solar stocks surging double-digits today on news that congress is reaching an agreement on a government spending bill that could extend tax credits for u.s. solar projects. so does this give new life to solar stocks. they have extended it to 2021. so that is that visibility toward the sector. >> i would be careful of the one with high equity. we saw it in solar city and sun edison. and sun power hasn't gotten too far ahead and you could rest on its valuation with a long-term view so i wouldn't chase the ones with 25% up today. >> what about the ones up year-to-date. >> i think sun power is right there.
5:54 pm
i think today -- he stepped on my toes. it is okay. he doesn't weigh that much. stay long on that. >> tim? . you are in that space. >> solar city had an analyst day which i think allayed fears on the transparency in the business through 2016. i would be very careful about overplaying today's announcement by the government. this doesn't change the short-term reality of where energy prices are and what is driving solar and what is driving it is high yield and liquidity and energy and this is not going to change in the next two to three weeks or months. big move. don't chase it. >> and specific mentions are solar leverage. i'm looking at how much debt they have versus the balance sheets and i'm looking at names. first solar is not one of those. 52-week highs. over $66 a share. after selling off a couple of days ago. i love this name. i look at it from a valuation perspective and they aren't leaved, and they are only up 9% -- >> would you follow this
5:55 pm
tomorrow. >> i wouldn't want to jump. it is 13, to 15 times trading, not that bad. >> and jim chanos will be on "closing bell" tomorrow for a stash tash exclusive. and another stock surge today. positive growth at the annual outlook. and some traders think the stock may have hit a top. dan nathan is at the smart board breaking it down. >> not hitting a top. but just finding a range on the upside. options range was 2.5 times average daily volume. the options volume had a lot to do with that fact. but the trade i want to talk about was the largest single stock options trade on the board today it was in ge, when the stock was 3050. there was an opening seller of the march 33 called at 22 cents. and i suspect that is against 22 million shares of long stock. that is an override. you are looking for the stock to
5:56 pm
trade within that range. and if it is below the 33 strike on the march expiration, the investor take in the 22 cents or $2.2 million in premium. and when you think about the number, 22 cents, it doesn't sound like a lot of money but that is equivalent to the 23 cents quarterly dividend paying over the next few months. so the investor is looking to double up on their investment. i would not cap upside. this is the 15-year chart. it just broke the down trend. i think ge is going higher. >> check out "options action" at 5:30 p.m. on friday. up next, the final trade. stay tuned. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool.
5:57 pm
5:59 pm
6:00 pm
>> seller -- >> spy. >> a senior moment. guy, could you remember yours. >> new mont. and you are done. >> i'm melissa lee. we'll see you my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but teach educate. tweet me @jim cramer. so that's all there is? we have this monumental move, the first time the federal reserve raises it's rates in nine years and the
104 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBCUploaded by TV Archive on
![](http://athena.archive.org/0.gif?kind=track_js&track_js_case=control&cache_bust=1124661254)