tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC December 24, 2015 5:00am-6:01am EST
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> . >> hi, everybody, welcome back. thank you for tuning in. these are your headlines from around the world. oil prices on the rise with brent gaining ground overtaking wti in morning trade. crude still on pace for the biggest two year loss on record. the central bank will do whatever it takes to hit it's 2% inflation target. meanwhile prime minister abe saying the economy will remain the japanese government's top priority in 2016 and hitching a
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ride, the investment firm kingdom holdings lead ace group of investors buying a more than 5% stake in the ride sharing app li lift. >> many of us celebrating christmas today. the u.s. futures indicating a very flattish open. ftse being open. with the ftse the only market to be hanging on to slight gains there. other markets also closed. fi philippines indonesia, malaysia, greece, germany, denmark,
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austria, other markets closed as well. it's quite out there. i have been asking if you are watching and if you're trading what are you trade something how do you position yourself? and where are the trades? how do you make money? a number of you writing in and tim for example saying thanks for opening show with oil prices. his u.s. oil options were ootm when i went to beat two hours ago and now they're positive. what's ootm? what does that stand for? write in and let me know what ootm is. i'll tell you who this is in a second. with christmas almost upon us it's almost time for new year's resolutions as 2015 draws to a close. how has your portfolio performed? did you make the right investment decisions at the beginning of last year or halfway through? let's look at the stats out there. returns of over 12% this year making it the topper forming major euro zone index out there:
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prompted by the russian micex. one of the biggest losers was oil, brent down by 35% on the year and then moving on and looking at oil it's been astounding. it's a real wildcard but i don't think anybody expected quite these performances that we have seen. so brent down 30 to 35% since january of last year as seen here. well, 39% even for brent. almost 40%. commodity prices softening across the board this year and precious metals they were no exception. gold and silver prices declining by around 9% making the two metals 2015's topper formersor
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the least worst performers. for more on the topper forming assets around the world this past year head to our website cnbc.com and asking also what's your top trade. worldwide@cnbc.com. i'll read as many tweets as i can later on in the show. i'm so surprised all of you were awake out there. i thought nobody was watching but you are. i'm really surprised. it's christmas. 2016 is likely to be another year of moderate global growth according to ubs's global macro strategy outlook. the euro zone will be out performing while china's growth rate will continue to fall. he's the global macro strategy head at ucb. welcome. >> thank you. >> how are you? merry christmas. >> thank you.
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i'm getting festive by the minute. >> it's all inside. calm and collected on the outside. inside a bag of beans. we were just talking about the ftse might be and out performanc performances. we had a lot of repositioning. is that going to continue? are you a fan of the referral markets. >> in general we're fond of the relative macro trade and the way to think about it is 2015 has been a complicated year for a reason in the sense that the top line description of moderate growth, relatively low inflation and low yields is actually a nice set up for risk assets. it continues to decline in growth and emerging markets. those type of elements introduce a lot of uncertainty and the
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outlook and the actual evolution of the year and just thinking about their actual trade is the wrong way to go. it was the wrong way to go in 2015 and we're taking that wide turn and it's probably -- it's going to be advisable to be thinking about it. yes we would like european equity and we think this is a good expression for long risk positions and within that aspect, italy probably will do well. i wouldn't necessarily shoes particular examples. it's the longer rated positions and being short emerging market fx, broadly speaking but i guess the main message is pair things up. >> yeah. when looking at the u.s. some would argue don't invest in the u.s. now.
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the run is over and the fed is going to start hiking. or others indicate that the u.s. economy is strengthening. it's good news. companies are going to out perform the european countier parts where we still see struggling european economies here and that we should be investing in the u.s. >> well, again, on a relative value basis partly it has to do with data. people are stocked in their understanding of the relative conditions of the two economies in the sense that there was a great widening of the cycles between the u.s. and europe. that's closed pretty much and even if i show you the numbers of core inflation and growth and i don't tell you which one is which you'll probably have difficulty understanding whether this is the numbers that correspond to the u.s. or europe. they're very similar. the main difference is the gap in europe is much wider but the markets is what's priced in and
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we have a pricing looking at europe. it's a full day cycle to given the starting point and how global are the forces in the global economy right now i would take the other side and i would say risk reward says buy europe and be a bit more circumspect on the u.s. >> you're staying with us for the time being so we'll pick up on some of those points and points from our super active viewers this morning. what are you doing? it's fantastic that you're with us. by all means keep your mails and tweets coming through. craig is watching from home as well. worldwide exchange. hello, craig. you're writing in and tell megathat you're watching. it's nice to know that we're not all alone here on christmas. 2015 has been a testing year for many emerging markets. will countries like china and
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brazil fair any better in 2016? that's the question we put to -- the last name is split. it's head of fixed income strategy. >> our concern is that all that leverage built up in the em markets over the past five years could start to hurt in 2016. we're seeing rising nonperforming loans and some stress in the em corporate markets which i think would have an impact on markets to keep bund yields low and we keep the u.s. dollar strong. >> you must have thrown into the mix long tips out right. this is a curious one because i had an interesting conversation last week and i said if you uncover enough stones there will be a little bit of inflation somewhere.
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so why would you be buying tips if it's true that there's no inflation out there. >> it's been quite disappointing and we have that more as a hedge. what if you are wrong? what if the sentiment in em in particular improves? >> so you don't believe there's inflation but you're just crossing your fingers just in case. >> globally we don't believe in the inflation themes but if there's one case you might see inflation it's the u.s. wedges are starting to pick up. if there's one area where you will see inflation that will be the u.s. that's why. we think they're quite cheap. not going to lose much if you hold them even if yields don't go up but in a risk scenario they'll offer good protection we think. >> just around the euro zone, underweight core euro zone
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covered bonds. don't like the covered bond story. >> it's more, you know, those instrument with low yields. you can talk about core covered bonds but also about the bund. we don't think they offer a lot of potential. they're very low. we prefer noncore bonds. that will be an environment where you see more spread compression next year and probably new cycle lows for example in terms of noncore against core. so we prefer to buy spain for example and we expect it next year. >> he was speaking to cnbc earlier this month. many markets are closed. it's not to say that nothing is going on. a couple of things. so a run down today. well, weekly u.s. jobless claims out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. first time filings for
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unemployment are expected to hold steady falling by 1,000 to a total of 270,000. claims they have come in below 300,000 for 42 straight weeks. also the u.s. markets are open for just a half a day today wrapping up at 1:00 p.m. eastern time so that you get to panic in the u.s. coming up here on the show, what does fashion ford expect from emerging markets? we'll hear from the legendary designer tom ford. also we are feeling very festive here on worldwide exchange, rose my producer loves this shot here. this is the beautifully lit twinkling christmas tree in rockerfeller center in new york city. let us know what you're doing
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today. incidentally also let's show you live pictures coming through from bethlehem. this is the main square outside the main church in bethlehem so they're getting ready for a big service taking place later on today at the place where jesus was born. as i was saying, i was there just a couple of months back. very interesting place. you should go visit. anyway, we'll see you on the other side of the break. tweet us. let us know if you're watching and what you're trading if you're trading. every dollar count.ep it growing that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?
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>> hi, everybody, welcome back. you're watching worldwide exchange. tim wrote in and was talking about oil prices and mentioned his options were ootm and i was thinking it's something very complicated. it's out of the money. so thank you very much to all of you. also david says what are you trading at the moment, and besides the persfavorites, indi russia, china as well. i had to ask what is fang. facebook, apple, netflix and google. >> or it could be amazon. >> what's that? >> we're learning all of these
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acronyms here. when they're invented they're invented but only for the people that heard them. earlier this year fashion designer tom ford told tanya briar that the slow down in russia impacted his business and also says he remains bullish on global emerging markets. take a listen. >> like everyone, emerging markets until recently with china and china is still a very very important market but there's been a bit of a downturn in the chinese economy lately and middle east we have a terrific customer base in the middle east. right now our next few stores opening are in america. we're opening miami, atlanta, houston, all this year. we're opening a few new stores in the middle east as well this year but africa has become quite important and they're quite a powerful luxury consumer base so it's -- you know, fashion is global today.
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everything is global. if you don't think globally i don't think you can really be in business. >> what about the current gee o -- geopolitical instability? >> it's effected business. absolutely effected business in the luxury sector. i think that we have been effected less than other brands because we still -- our brand recognition is growing every day so more and more customers are understanding what we're about and coming into the store which has offset a bit the downturn in the -- you know in the luxury consumers or shopping habits of luxury consumers and we're not as, when you're in every major city, you can feel that hit. we're not as exposed as some of the luxury brands because we don't have many stores.
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we're definitely effected by it and everyone in the luxury industry is feeling it. >> you four stores i believe in russia with the downturn of the ruble. >> the interesting thing is our russian customers are not traveling as much so our russian customers are not spending as much in milan and london and los angeles but in russia our sales have gone up so while they're staying home they're shopping in russia. it's very interesting. >> james says facebook, amazon, netflix, google. and google is now alphabet. of course. of course. so i'm too busy doing this to keep up with all the acronyms. you know? listen, coming up, straight ahead as father christmas prepares for his big day we hear from the man himself. if you're watching children, we're talking to santa claus. as he reveals his festive wish. as we go to break we're sharing santa clausing -- santa claus
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>> hi, everybody. welcome back. merry christmas. merry christmas. if you're just joining us i'm saying merry christmas because it's christmas for some of us on the 24th. for a lot of americans it's the 25th. we get to celebrate before you. but you have more time to get presents so it squares up evenly. u.s. markets the implied open slightly lower. we were called very muted here in europe and as i have been saying here as well, most of europe is closed. some of you, though, are working very hard. the ftse, the cac, the index in amsterdam trading still. if you want to join the conversation go right ahead please. i was asking is anybody watching. it's christmas and early morning for you u.s. viewers and so nice to hear from you. worldwide@cnbc.com. that's on e-mail. we're on twitter as well.
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a lot of you still stuck on something i tweeted earlier. there's an artist that does lots of drawings where like can you find the cat among a sea of owls and go see if you can find the cat among the owls. it's on my twitter page somewhere. more of you writing in and saying merry christmas. merry christmas to all of you. benjamin says for capital preservation are you moving out of the united states and into markets like canada? >> well, again on a relative basis i would say that canada is part of our tool kit for 2016. the way that we view it is as interesting against the aussies of the world. so we'll do it on a currency basis because we see valuation upside in canada. >> yeah. >> we think that it's uncertain
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obviously what the outlook will end up being in the u.s. in 2016. the realization and canada is a good bet to maintain, probably higher quality exposure. >> just looking at it there and the rates are 2.5%. >> right and it's a small economy and one of our main observations here is that the structure of inflation, global inflation is very important nowadays in the sense that for most countries there's a very large -- and uncharacteristically large component of global inflation which means if you're the policy maker looking at inflation coming in you're not sure what part of it is global.
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your only way to react is the exchange rate and you're doing a disservice if you're not using it more aggressively. it's probably good to cut rates. >> merry christmas david. >> tim says thanks for reading out the tweet that it is out of the money. otm. so we learned something this morning. and canadian dollar, we just covered that. >> he writes in and is trading the canadian dollar. he says he's got a danish friend, looks like a danish last name. linda is up watching as well. no problem for you in 2016. >> let's see. nigel says merry christmas. tuned in briefly while packing presents daydreaming of snow. have a fabulous festive season.
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same goes for you. again just looking at some of the other calls that we're getting here. >> david says, despite potential pricing pressure bio tech stocks look good and radius as well. certain sectors looking closer? >> i think in the u.s. what the preference is for sectors that feature large cast position and limited exposure for rates in the dollar. as much you would concentrate on such aztec nolg for example. you probably avoid sectors like industrials and utilities so this would be an accommodation coming from within the u.s. small stocks would be lack in the u.s. visa vi the larger
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stock. >> frederick says merry christmas. i have been watching since 4:00 a.m. eastern time. why are you up at 4:00? go to bed. it's super important to sleep. but we're glad that you're watching. >> he's working for santa. >> santa's little helper. exactly. thank you very much for having come in to spend your christmas eve with us. >> it was a pleasure. >> and a special hello as well to cleo who is at home with christmas guests. get ready he's coming back soon. >> thank you. >> global macro strategy head at ubs. >> very good. >> sorry. >> still to come with hours until christmas eve has all of your online shopping arrived? it would have arrived had you ordered it early enough. you can't order it an hour before christmas and expect it to arrive. we hope so. some retailers are warning about serious shipping delays.
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brent overtaking wti in morning trade. crude is still on pace to see the biggest two year loss on record. the bank of japan's koroda is saying the central bank will do whatever it takes to hilt the 2% inflation target. meanwhile prime minister abe says the economy will remain the japanese governments top priority in 2016. hitching a ride. the saudi's prince's kingdom holding leading a group of investors buying more than 5% in the ride sharing app lyft. >> welcome back. i hope you are wrapping presents and getting ready for the festivities over the next couple of days. u.s. futures we have a bit of trade taking place later coming from the states. we're just called a little bit lower from the u.s.
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gains on wall street yesterday. asian shares climbing overnight. here in europe we were called super flat on the three markets in europe. everything else is closed so everybody is off except for you guys out there trading. what are you trade something what are you trading? let us know. several retailers including eddie bauer and pacific sunwear are warning that their packages are delayed. they're blaming fedex. the package delivery company vuning at full capacity around the clock to accumulate a surge in volume coming through from the retail customers. also it's network is performing as it was designed for the forecast volume from retailers
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this holiday season. now she is the director of consumer research. good to see you this morning. how are you and what are we looking at? what type of a season is it going to be for them? >> well, happy holidays. in regards to the retailers it's not going to be so merry for them this season. in fact we're only looking at a 1.2% growth in retail sales for the holiday season which is weaker than last year's 2.8%. a 3% reflects healthy u.s. consumer spending so 1.2% is weak. still fed ex is seeing delays because of online shopping and that's a trend that's continued to grow for the most part here in the united states.
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it has been growing cig any cannily and changed the way consumers are shopping this holiday season. >> who is leading the market when looking at the luxury players out there? >> the biggest winner is amazon but in terms of luxury four major player versus really dominated the entire industry. richmond which owns cartier is doing good this holiday season. it will be one of the big gifts that ladies will be receiving this holiday season. on top of that, almv and hermez are expecting to see double digit growth because of their strong reputation in leather goods. handbags are popular. kate spade is also expected to do well in terms of the luxury
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market. >> talk to me also about the general winners and losers. i note that you talk about athleisure. we were talking about this yesterday on the back of the nike profits coming through but it's not just nike. >> well, it's the biggest trend right now that we're seeing that has consistently done well. millennials make the biggest population of the united states and they have changed the work place. it's more of a casual work place way of dressing and therefore they're leaning toward athleisure. it's so popular that lululemon and nike barely offered any discounts because they don't have to. they know the consumer wants these items. nike reported earnings growth of 22% and this is expected to grow to 142% for this holiday season kwh underlines how strong this trend is right now and retailers
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like foot locker are expected to be the topper formers as well this holiday season. >> i have been talking about these nike socks i got. all week have been talking about them. i haven't been in there for awhile and they're too big. so now have to take the nike socks back because i'm swimming in them. but anyway. i also want to ask you about the e-commerce transactions because you mention that they still only make up a fraction of total retail sales. we're always lead to think that e-commerce is massive but you're saying this is not a saturated market basically. >> well, it's interesting because there's truly been a shift in consumer behavior. i have been doing this over ten years and going to the malls every black friday and this black friday the crowds were very little because all of the promotions are moving online. the consumer used to walk in a store and be overwhelmed by the
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number of promotions offered to them in a very limited amount of time so as a result the consumer used to feel pressure and used to do more impulse shopping because they felt they had to take advantage of that deal in that limited amount of time. now those deals and promotions have moved online weeks ahead of black friday and weeks after black friday giving the consumer plenty of time to do some price comparison before they finalize the transaction and as a result they're doing more conscious shopping as opposed to impulse shopping. that's why we're seeing more online transactions too and they continue to grow, the amount of money consumers spent online continues to grow for the most part. this is a very strong trend and it has shift the way consumers spend here in the united states. >> thank you very much. >> courtney writes in from canada and says happy new year. what's your new year's resolution. do you do them? >> yes, to eat healthier.
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>> that one i have every year, right? so it's about doing something about it. pretty healthy though. that's a good one. i think i'll go back to language lessons and start that again. it's important you do stuff you love, right. anyway. good on you. have a happy holiday and we'll talk next year. director of consumer research at thompson reuters. what's your new year's resolution. you can share that if you want. paul writing in and saying of course we're watching from australia. what time is it in australia now? anybody know? no idea. it's 10:40 here in the morning. thanks for a great year and he also says cnbc's jim cramer invented fang. i didn't realize that. now i feel bad. i should have known but i didn't: if you're after last minute inspiration for your christmas gifts this next piece of tape could be for you because we spoke to the product strategist last month about how technology and apps were helping the christmas consumer.
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take a listen. >> this app is called the ibm watson trend app and what we have done is we take the power of the ibm watson super computer and put it in the hand of personal shoppers and what we have been able to do is listen to over tens of millions of conversations online and bring back what's trending in the world of retail, consumer electronics, toys and health and fitness. >> what's really frustrating for many shoppers is the fact that they want a particular product but the fact is its simply sold out. so does your new app also help those shoppers try and get ahead of other shoppers? >> absolutely. so we're able to listen to all of the combinations of what's going on. including what will sell out ahead of time. if you're a parent and looking to buy legos for yourself or your children this holiday season get those early because lego is forecasting a shortage that they will not be able to
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fulfill all of their orders. >> what are the hottest items right now, justin? >> you know, it's no real surprise to see a few popular names. apple products. perhaps surprisingly their watch is at the top of the list. we see a lot of 4k tvs at the top of the list and in the toys category, lego is very popular. prehap what is is more interesting though are some of the surprises on the list. one is the mecanoid robot. it encourages learning, building and programming for young kids. >> really making a flash it seems. if you're looking at how consumers are doing share shopping we have seen this big shiftway from people going to the stores and the brick and mortar. they're now shopping online. that's not a new trend but that's really intensifying, isn't it? >> it is. absolutely.
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half of the buying we expect this season to be online and in particular, device of choice is the smartphone. we have seen the smartphone overtake tablets as the shopping device this season. >> is there any product category you thought would be doing well but it simply is not? are there any surprises out there? >> in terms of surprises, there's one in particular in the head phones. they have beaten out some brand names that perhaps are a little bit more familiar with. like beats by dre or bose or skull candy so they're one to keep an eye on but overall it's turning out to be a really robust season across the board. one category that we're keeping our eye on hasn't popped just yet is the health and fitness category but we anticipate when people get on the other side of
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the holidays and start making their new years resolution that that category is going to pop. >> thank you. really interesting. product strategist at ibm. >> yeah, speaking of head phones my driver recently was wearing head phones while he was driving me. don't listen to music while you're drive a car. that's ridiculous. hi louisa you have viewers in spite of the very quite market. i'm watching. quite sad that european closing bell has been discontinued. merry christmas. on a programming note not doing closing bell anymore but i will be here with you in the mornings. it's going to be a fantastic year ahead. we look forward to having you on board for the morning shows start of the new year. i'll read out as many of your e-mails as i can on the other side of the break. a pretty christmas tree. we're showing you that again in honor of rose who loves this shot. if you're just waking up in new york, merry christmas.
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>> hi, everybody. welcome back. despite it being christmas putin is not sleeping because the russian government just had a small meeting and putin is saying that the key task is to bring the economy on steady growth track. russia should be ready for a prolonged period of low oil prices he says as well and he is calling for limited growth with market tools. the government in russia acted efficiently amid the economic crisis. that coming through after putin holds a meeting with the government. adam i'm not hearing you. i think you have gone quite. but hyatt hotels is investigating after finding malicious software on the system that processes customer payments. the resort chain is telling customers to check their statements although it's not saying whether any personal information was stolen. the company says that the malware was discovered november 30th but isn't saying why it
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waited three weeks to go public. they are among hotel chains that revealed they have been hacked this year. now, nike's 2 for 1 stock split takes effect in today's trading. the company that reported better than expected earnings this week is the best performing stock in the dow. post split nike will go from the 6 to the most impactful on the dow. >> it's been a very good week for lift. the ride hailing app got the green light in la. let's head straight out to kate rogers at the headquaters, cnbc. hi, kate, merry christmas. it's christmas for me in denmark. it's the 24th. i know you celebrate on the 25th. >> we do. merry christmas to you. saw day rab i can't's kingdom
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holding says it's lead a group of investors buying a more than 5% stake in lyft. the group investing nearly 250 million. lyft which is uber's biggest rival here in the u.s. is looking to raise up to $1 billion in a round according to finalings seen this week. they invested $100 million in the app. now separately kingdom and the prince spent nearly $150 million to preferred shares in the secondary market. kingdom now owns 2.3% of the company itself. it's been a major investor in u.s. tech companies and owns 5% of twitter. uber will ask an appeals court for a stay on all proceedings including a trial over work status. a judge said he would put off a final destoicision until uber's
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appeal was resolved. drivers that sued uber claimed they're employees and should be entitled to be reimbursed for expenses such as gas. it could reshape the on demand economy and serving as the market for people providing service with others looking to pay for it. >> back to you. >> thank you very much. happy holidays and we'll chat very soon again. jeff says i just realized that santa traveling around the world in a night is actually two nights. you're right. less magic needed. santa needs some fedex. we need to take a short break. we'll come back with more of your greetings. it's really nice hearing from you. genuinely. you guys make the show. you make what we do really worth it. keep your e-mails coming through if you want. you can find us on twitter as
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>> hi, welcome back. i'm also long the sek. if you have a swedish girlfriend you need to be long the swedish krona. merry christmas, todd. it's my christmas today. yours tomorrow. so i'm celebrating already. excited about the markets heading into next year? where do you see 2016 starting? >> good morning louisa and merry christmas to you. i think that the markets are going to envelope heavy head
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winds here. there's a lot of issues that we chose to ignore throughout the end of the year here. you can say there's been growth but there's been no growth based on the 2% gdp that we can't get past. we talk about how great job versus been but they haven't been good because even if you go to the last jobs report in which we brought in 211,000 new jobs what everybody forgets to mention is the same week we lost 50,000 jobs that would make more money than the 211,000 they put on. i look for a lot of head winds and the all important, all long awaited for market correction. this bull market is very long in tooth and there hasn't been great supporting data. if you take away the merger and acquisition you make the stock buy backs it's really been a big nothing so i think that we're going to experience some very serious head winds and i would look for a very serious correction in the next year. >> what's a serious correction? by how much?
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>> 20% i would think. i would think -- 20 or 25%. >> okay. so that's going to be lead from what? is there going to be a catalyst like oil or like people saying look the tech valuations are silly. we need to come out of this or are we going to be refocussing on china or on europe. >> i think it's going to be a combination of all but i don't think it's going to be oil. in fact i'm a buyer of oil on these levels. i'm a buyer of basic materials here because we have seen these things are now down on multiyear lows. we see the bloomberg commodity index down at 18 year lows. it's going to be driven out of the tech sector but the valuations, if we look at the valuations now those are based on interest rates that were at zero. those are based on borrowing huge sums of money to either increase their dividend or buy back their stock. if breast rates are going to rise that's going to change the ratio swres and make them higher. i already believe the market is
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at worst fairly valued if not overvalued so there's going to be a lot of issues there and at some point people are going to actually take some profit out of the markets so i think we're going to see a shift and if interest rates rise like they're projecting then people are -- that don't want to be in the market in the first place because they were chasing yield are going to start moving to other asset classes and start to move away from the stock market. >> we have got to go. thank you very much. happy holidays and we'll talk next year. hello to marion. hello to donald. a long time viewer. way back from the 80s. oh my goodness. no, my feet are a size 40. to mike. so in between i think. but i'm tall. i'd look strange if i had small feet. linda tweeting a beautiful picture for rose. speaking of rose a special good-bye to my beloved producer rose michaels. maybe we can take a shot. best of luck. it's been a pleasure having you
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>> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> welcome right here on this christmas eve. i'm andrew ross sorkin. becky has the day off. we do have confirmation this morning from the north american aerospace defense command and santa is on the move. >> look at him go. >> norad continuing the 60 yearlong tradition of tracking the guy in red as he makes his way across the world to bring gifts to boys and girls. if you're looking for white christmas this year, the only way to do that if you're in new york right now is to head west. in the south and even parts of the northeast people will be wearing shorts. a southwest wind could bring temperatures in the 60s and 70s. >> but not you.
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