received your tweets. eddie fisher says he finished shopping at 6:00 this morning before tuning into "squawk box." another said she is skipping gifts together instead saving cash to buy a house. >> a different eddie fisher. >> we want to wish everybody a merry christmas. we have to run. have wonderful holidays! see you on monday. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> merry christmas! good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with sarah eisen, david faber and simon hobbs. stocks closed at 1:00 eastern. relatively steady. the s&p relatively stable.

italy is closed. back home, bonds closed at 2:00 eastern better than expected. >> "the final trade"ing days for 2015. stocks are poised to end in positive territory, just barely. can the rally hold? >> last-minute shoppers, running to buy gifts for their loved ones or anybody else they might want to buy a gift for. will this be the big boost that brick-and-mortar stores need. we are going to have a report. >> hyatt attacked just as people are getting ready for their pol day season. first up, stocks are looking to extend their win willing streak to four. wednesday's rally put the s&p back in the green for the year. oil prices on track for their biggest weekly gain in a couple of months helped by that drawdown. the surprise drawdown incurred yesterday. claims fell off by 5,000 to 267. that's near a 42-year low. the s&p on the last day before -- the last trading

session before christmas, is actually up 72% of the time since 1928. >> what's unusual about this is that we are all watching the price of oil. that seems to be the mover. yesterday's session, we got that bounce in the price of crude oil again in commodities. that helped world stocks. it helped the energy companies, the industrial companies. the most beaten-down sectors rose to the top. whether this is sustainable. potentially a technical bounce on the price of oil. >> incidentally, those are video screens if you keep catching glimpses. very festive here. >> christmas eve. >> there were some explosive moves yesterday. pipeline companies. williams, also traded up

dramatically. kmi, which we have talked about so often, has had a terrible year. to your point, sarah, many of these stocks were up double digits. they are down, 60%, 70%. let's watch today and see what the impact is. >> how oil may or may not affect the banks next year. when the fed last designed the stress test, oil prices have come down. a lot of the tests were designed for a 60% drop in crude and were essentially there. the number of oil and gas loans at risk of default. let's see. you get five times as many. oil and gas loans, risk and default. >> with the underlying commodity town, they tend to do it at certain points of the year.

that tends to be the key question as to how much they are going to withdraw credit from some of these companies or present them from accessing it to a certain extent and what position that will put them in. we have been waiting for many restructurings that have yet to take place when it comes to many of the energy-related companies. that does not mean that 2016 will not see it if the commodity remains at this level. >> what is also unusual about this end of year weird, we usually get the santa claus rally, that seasonal phenomenon where portfolio managers load up into the new year. we have had 100-point moves on the dow up or down for the last nine sessions. it really is hard to believe that we are just in the black for 2015 on the s&p 500. it is going to be a coin toss as to whether we finish higher or lower based on what happened. the dow is still down 1 1/2% year to date. >> the dow is still down.

>> the nasdaq is one of the key gainers. volatility going into next year is what a lot are expecting. very down beat as to where they think the stock market can go overall. you have removed that perception that the fed is behind you pumping liquidity. how then do you play the market? in the meantime, you have only hours to complete your christmas shopping. is there expected a last-minute rush to the stores? we hope so. >> traffic is certainly picking up here. the international council of shopping centers said as of monday, a quarter of all americans still had christmas shopping to do and 10% hadn't started. we spoke to early risers and

found members from both groups. >> last-minute during the first minute of the last minute. >> i didn't get a chance to look too much online. i decided to come as the last minute. >> as a last-minute shopper, i am going to spend a lot more than i would have a month ago but 'tis the season. >> that is music to retailers ears, many of whom have extended their hours to accommodate the purchase procrastinators. kohl's opened around the clock since december 17th. for those looking for bargains deep discount, a lot think it is men. only 5% of them and 3% of women wait until the last two weeks to start their christmas shopping. what do procrastinators buy? accessories, home goods, also, toys and an uptick in digital

gift cards. you can send them at the very last minute. procrastinators best friends and malls like this one as well, they offer convenience, variety and those deep discounts, so many of those last-minute shoppers are looking for. sarah, back to you. >> thank you very much, mary thompson. we'll check back and see what the traffic looks like a bit later. can investigators still find opportunities in the beaten-down retail center? >> joining us, you heard what mary said. can the procrastinators make a difference in malls. warm weather and not selling puffy coat and winter weather accessories. >> we are a procrastination nation. this is going to be a photo finish this holiday season. one thing we would note is that the calendar setup with friday on a christmas. it has only happened one other

time in the last 15 years. if you go back to 2009 with when that happened, sales were strongest in weeks four and five of december. so we do think it is possible for a christmas miracle to show up. >> i guess i'm wondering who that helps. the cover on "the wall street journal" today, malls reel as webs roar. it does feel like an inflection point where the internet is stealing traffic. we talk about the growth every year. did something different happen where it hurt the anchor department stores more than usual? >> e-commerce is incredibly important and also the omnichannel guys. it is not about where you are actually purchasing but you that digital search process before you purchase. the brick-and-mortar have improved their game. they are better at mobile, better at buying online than

they were a year ago. we think the next 48 hours, they will shine in the buy online and pick up at the store. it is still a little too early to call but it can happen. >> the story sarah references talks about ups and fedex working at capacity and now instituting some volume restrictions on various retailers. to what degree are we simply not set up to deliver these many packages to this many americans in this short of time? >> one thing that has been true that consumer behavior leads change. what everyone is trying to do, whether you are at ups or the post office or an e-commerce retailer, you are building your organization to beage j agile i consumer behavior? the consumer is king and typically, change will follow. >> what is the current analysis on the degree of discounting,

brick-and-mortar and discounts online. >> you have old navy, 75% off. abercrombie, 46% off. the article everybody is referencing talks about a more surgical approach. the discounts don't have to be as great as three or four years ago to get people into the e-commerce field. what do you feel about where we are going and who is getting clever on maintaining margin irrespective of volume. >> it is about driving traffic and winning some lion's share before christmas. one of the more interesting things to watch are the days ahead. when you go from purchasing for others and purchasing for yourself. on the 26th of december, it hits on a saturday. a nice high-volume potential day. flushed with cash and gift cards and now shopping with herself. we are just as interested in watching the margins and discounts on the other side of holiday than pre-holiday.

so far, we are comfortable with the margins that we are seeing. >> i find it interesting neely that j.c. penny is one of your top picks for next year and only 36% of analysts actually say buy this stock. what do you see that they don't? >> we think we are early op this one. it is largely rooted in the management-led turn around with margin elston taking the helm as ceo. he is a dprat ceo and an excellent leader. he comes from home depot well over the last decade as well as target in his overall historyment one thing that we are really seeing him do is dpet the rank and file behind him, and getting jc penney not just back to where they were but positioning them for the future. it is about a management-led turn around. they lost $6 billion of revenue under the prior management regime. we are only estimated they recapture about $2 billion of

the $6 billion lost. it's about recovery. >> before we say good-bye, let me pick up on the point that was made about the shippers that are imposing volume restrictions. that was always going to be the case this season. they would pride themselves on the relationship with their customers where they told them what to expect and when they had to deliver packages to them in order they be delivered in turn by christmas. the bigger question when we have more stories about amazon increasing their own network capabilities, whether we are going to hit a brick wall for the online retailers, the systems, the package delivery systems that we have that can expand may not be able to cope with much more volume if stuff is going to be delivered on time for the holiday season. is there a brick wall we could face? >> it is certainly possible. what we do know, everybody is going to have to so-call build the church for easter sunday. the consumer is king. change will happen.

we don't know what that looks like. we know it has been happening at a very rapid rate since the iphone was birthed in 2007. we don't know where this ends but we do believe that going forward, the consumer will win. >> we'll leave it there on that optimistic note. happy holidays. thanks for joining us, neely tominga, analyst. when we come back, a look at the movers and the data breach over at the hyatt hotels. beatles tunes are being made available today. art cashin and the traders hoor are singing wait until the sunshines nellie at 8:00 a.m. eastern. we'll take that when we come back. don't let it conquer you. with the capability and adaptability of lexus all-weather drive.

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>> hyatt identifying malware that operates processing systems on their hotels. it was discovered late last month but didn't say whether they succeeded in stealing credit card numbers. the hotel says its investigation is ongoing. a couple of questions. why did it take three, four

weeks to make this public. secondly, we have had other attacks like this on hotel chains, whether those thiefs are deliberately targeting businesses where people use their corporate cards. my assumption is, you are much less reactive to theft on your corporate card than your personal credit card. it is not something you might check as often or as regularly. >> there was a similar at the trump hotels. >> and hilton. everybody, obviously, clearly, is vulnerable in this environment. hyatt is telling people, if you have stadium at one of their hotels, to check your credit card statements to see if there is fraudulent activity. our asum unsumption is that thi malware did work. >> i like the exposure on the day before christmas. >> i had my credit cards cloned three times recently.

i don't understand who is bearing the cost of this. every time it happens and why people aren't upgrading more rapidly to an apple system where you don't have to pass your card down the line. >> the expense is born by the company. you know that. it is an enormous expense. you would expect to pay for that. >> the companies are. >> do they have insurance. >> how are the customers paying for it? >> i do. it is not something they could take each time out. >> something we don't know, though. >> that's true. >> when we return, art cashin with his report on markets. have a look at futures coming off of a solid 1% rally. it looks like the gains are set to continue flipping around. they were negative earlier. looking at a higher start with more than 10 minutes to go before the opening bell. dow future up 20. more "squawk on the street" live

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nine minutes before the bell. let's get to art cashin. >> people want to know what you drink on this holiday. >> liquids. >> you don't discriminate. >> we might have a bloody mary or whatever and report to the usual scotch.

before you start partying too hard, it helps to have oil at 38. >> yep. >> how long-lasting? >> many aspects of a short covering rally. people were talking about 20 levels. oil was overly shorted. people are paying for it now. i think you are going to have to wait until next week or the week after to find out where things are going. we are going to have to begin to hear from iran. are they going to come home with supplies and what's going to be there. i don't know that we are going to go back to 50. you probably have to give the lows one more test. >> oil is still down like 10% so far for december alone. in terms of the stock market, are you looking for a bottom in oil or a signal from the fed as the clue toward the direction for stocks next year. >> a couple of things. i'm still rather concerned about the economy. i do believe the data will begin

to tell the tale. obviously, the fed won't want to admit they made an error too readily. i think data will have to deteriorate significantly in order to get them to move. other than that, i think oil will roll over and retest the lows and stuff. >> which brings us to your poem, which everybody loves so much that you do toward the end of the year. here is my favorite line on the federal reserve. the fed turned data dependant or so they would claim. they hiked in december though the data looked tame. that's very art cashin. >> thank you. i've had practice. >> yes, you have. >> at 11:00, you are going to sing "nellie," which goes back to a time where people needed some cheering up. >> yeah. they had parties for christmas and new year's here on the floor. sometimes they had several bands, et cetera. when 1929 and the depression came along, it was rather

unseemly to be seen celebrating down here when the nation and the economy were badly hurt. so they just sang together and one of the songs that emerged in those dismal times was "nellie" for the clouds rolling by and the ability for things to come back. also, the parties today are a little bit more respectful. in 1873, they had to call the police in. things got a little rowdy here on the floor. we haven't had that since. >> does nellie feel like it fits the current times or we are nowhere near that? >> let's not forget, basically, the market has done nothing all year. a little "nellie" can't hurt right here. the worst year for the s&p since 2011. >> we're still struggling to get earnings to match. if it weren't for financial engineering, we'd be in a bit more trouble. i'll take a little nellie today.

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cnbc, you are watching the opening bell in two minutes on this christmas eve with stocks in a shortened session. stocks here will close at 1:00 p.m. the bond at 2:00. europe, a lot of indices are closed, the dax was closed for the day. the bank of japan put out budgets. trying to defend the slowdown at cpi, blaming energy prices. >> which is hurting and pressuring inflation. the yen is a little stronger today, which doesn't bode well for stocks. it doesn't matter much. futures pointing to a higher start. >> i was going to mention nike.

>> there was a split after the bell yesterday. nike splitting its stock so everyone who owns shares gets two shares for every one. this will be the first day of trading that it opens. in the $60 range. he did this back in 2012. >> visa did it in march. coming back a little bit. the idea is to open up the stock to a broader array of retail investors that can buy the stock cheaper. nike does this every time basically the stock goes around the $100 level. there it is, set to open, 64.50. let's see what happens there. >> a lot less influence on the dow being less price-weighted than other stocks. >> so will consumer discretionary actually to your point. howard silver blat, an annal left at s&p found that industrials will be 20% waiting. consumer discretionary will drop to 16.7%, the opposite of the

s&p 500. >> they have performed so far this year relative to the s&p. >> speaking of which. keep your eye on 2058.90, breaking even. officials from the pin strike bow bowl, over at the nasdaq, the salvation army, which does so much good work all around the holidays. keep our eye on a number of names. netflix is making some news after the pay package was approved at a salary of 900 k or $2.4 million for the cfo. options are the lion's share of that compensation. >> anything you have connected to the stock price has been good for you probably over the last few years as we well know if netflix is up, 142% this year. we pointed out so many times. so much of the market cap movement has been up away from

some of the big media companies such as time warner, viacom or fox and seemingly into netflix, which its market cap is very close, neck in neck with time warner and fox. the management team who owns those options and/or stock has been well compensated. >> brings to mind all the discussion of disney this week. they have a piece. 26 of the 35 top cable channels had diminution in prime time average audience in 2015. almost all of them. that's a big reason why the s&p is down 5 for the year in a relatively flat year. >> something went on with nielsen ratings at some point you could argue. there was a point when they were roaring higher and higher and higher. >> where we are on that. >> the larger question of cord cutting and shaving that we talk about so often that has been a fear for so many years. it seemed to come to the floor

more in 2015 and certainly has muted any positive response in disney stock price to the incredible success of the force awakens as they have been fighting against some analysts, in particular one from last week as we well know. that stock has been down almost every day, despite what has been an okay media. >> it is down 6% since the release of star wars, which is somewhat surprising. >> it could be. the numbers are coming out better than analysts projected for the box office. i'm going to see it tomorrow. that's got to be an indication. i have never seen a star wars movie in nimy life. >> that is a good point. a very big franchise with a lot of spin-offs to come further doup the line. attracting people like you and people that are younger and attracting the chinese who didn't see the series the first time around is important for taking that entire ecosystem to the next level. with the vertical solution down to the theme parks, so on and so

forth. $4 billion is what they paid for the franchise. this film will gross $2 billion, $2.5 billion, just this one movie. >> energy, best performing sector in the s&p. most sectors have opened up in the red. energy finds itself on top again today. this is what we have been seeing toward the end of the year, the question we have been raising about whether this is just a bounce as art cashin has just told us. a technical bounce from an oversold position. we did get that inventory data yesterday. stockpiles, a big draw. the question is, was that because of the year end or does it mark the beginning of a new trend where all of that heavy stockpiling, which is just adding to supply concerns, has been weighing on the price of oil. >> i'm not expert on this. refiners tend to run down their stocks at the end of the year in the same way retailers run down their stocks at the end of the year for tax reasons. it's kind of how you manage the business. it is part of what happens. >> meanwhile, gas is the

cheapest it has been in this country in 81 months. just above $2 a gallon. average savings per year for the average driver. $550. that's a lot of money. >> where is it going? >> into your insurance premiums if you have a family or your rent increase. >> typically, when gas prices, if you ask any economist. if we were to see gas prices below $2 a gallon, they would have seen a bigger shot in the arm to the economy. we just got the savings right. 5.5%. that's near the highest in years. if we stay lower for longer, does the family budget sort of rebalance so you put aside your savings and now you can spend more. >> depends on whether you feel the people are optimistic about where the economy is going. if you look the way that people are running their 2016 campaigns, it would appear they want to change and they are not happy. >> there has been a seminole change in the way people spend money. it is not clear that they are

necessarily as willing or interested in going to the mall in buying things or going online for paying their wireless bill and baying their new devices. to your point, their health care premiums. >> electronics. >> a number of things that didn't exist 10 or 20 years ago, expenses, as the way they are now. >> your smartphone bill. we didn't pay that ten years ago. >> it is not clear there is less spending, so to speak. it may be on different things. >> maybe that's the change that is here to say. consumers company on top of the dow for 2015. nike, up more than 30%. the biggest loser in the dow is not an oil company. it is walmart, which is down. >> or there is an innovator at the top of the chart. there is one that was way behind on its innovation on what it was paying its staff at the bottom of the chart. you could slice that in different ways. >> at the bottom of the dow is p&g and home depot.

these die difficult verging paths of redaily. >> amazon hovering over all of it in terms of the major change that has taken place over the last few years. >> the big funds, zero price in fidelity. they have two of the three top stops. owning amazon was key. netflix has done better. >> amazon is a much larger market cap. there is more of it to go around. >> people trying to game out ten-year price targets for amazon. you are seeing $2600 a share. it is very difficult to figure out what could stand in their way other than themselves. other than tripping over themselves. >> it is true, carl. i have had that conversation recently with a number of people. you can make arguments. every category, they can be in.

some things hurt retailers, because they appeal to a certain segment of the population, whether it is higher income demographic or lower. amazon can potentially appeal to everybody. it is logistics, which it has spent so much money on and willing to take such razor thin profit margins on. it has been rewarded by wall street regardless. it's logistics are conceivably better than that of any other retailer online out there as people know. we talk about it all the time. you order something in the morning. it shows up at your door conceivably that evening these days. it will be interesting to see how they are eventually disrupted if that happens. >> whether the natural break becomes the logistics. whether it is your ability to deliver that ultimately defines that. it will have a position, because it has so. ups, fedex can't deliver for

everybody else. >> do you know how many billions of dollars they spent? >> prime at the heart and building out an incredible logistics positions in terms of being able to get stuff to you the same day. only a year and a half ago when i did that documentary and i questioned one of the key executives and she was saying, we'll do it in the same day. i was somewhat incred due louse. >> the price of oil is still trading above the price of brent crude oil. >> the export ban was lifted and they signed off on that. i see deliveries. i have a starshiping out in the middle of next month for the first time. >> we'll see what demand looks like. 3803. s&p is hanging in. >> we have kind of a flat open here.

i think what might be happening, carl, we may be front running the santa claus rally. the s&p is up close to 3% so far this week. that's a little bit unusual going into the santa claus rally. this has been a weird year in general. an unusual year. you look at the s&p. it is flat. up 0.3%. that's not really what's happening. this is a real year of extremes here. it is a very strange year when you get 21% of the s&p 500 down 20% or more. that's a huge number. we have got 15% of the s&p that's up 20% or more. so 40% of the s&p 500 is in very weird situations, extremes of highs or lows at this point. a lot of people like to poo-poo these santa claus rallies. it is not serious. i have news for you. it is very serious this year. you have so many people down so much, they are trying to ride a wave. it will make the difference between being positive or negative on the year for them.

look at some of the energy stocks this week. you have people that are very interesting in getting long certain stocks here that they normally would never care about. these are the stocks down the most this year. suddenly, up double digits this week. people are riding this wave to get positive for the year. i know people who are suddenly long alcoa in a big way. do you think they are fundamentally long on alcoa? no. they are just trying to ride the wave out. they don't know if this will be into 2016. they don't care. they are trying to improve their numbers. you know what paccar and emerson and caterpillar. it is up 7% so far this week. people are riding the wave. they are doing it with other groups as well. retailers are suddenly up mid single digits. michael kors is up 6%, 7%, fos

si fossil is up. riding this wave is serious. speaking of the retailers, i spoke with the retail metrics, earnings only expected to be up 0.4% this quarter for them. that's a pretty dismal number here. revenues are not bad. up 4%. this does not include a lot of the e-commerce players. you know what's been going on, besides e-commerce, the weird weather and heavy competition. they seem to be doing okay. some of the other ones like unicoare doing okay. over retail overall not doing that great. let's take a look at the official santa claus rally. we keep using this. san santa klaus rally, the first two days of january, the average gain sense 1950, 1.4%. we don't normally go into it where suddenly, three days before, four days before, we are up 3%. so it is not clear we are front

running the rally but certainly we are closing the year out so far on a positive note. right now, the dow is down 37 points. simon, back to you. >> thank you very much, bob. >> the nasdaq 100 obviously a clear winner. up over 9% for the year so far. see seema mody has more. bed, bath, and beyond, one of the big stocks. cut lower than expected sales this morning. jpmorgan cutting their price target. from 67 to 53. the stock not only down today but over the past year, down about 35%. the reason the nasdaq is up to date. a lot of the tech stocks continue to outperform. a mixed day of trade. year to date, it is certainliest to s evident to see. apple continues to underperform, down 1.5%.

interestingly enough, the nasdaq, as you point out, the clear winner, nasdaq 100 up about 9% and the composite up about 6.5%. if you take a step back and look at global stock markets, a little pop quiz for you, what is the best performing global stock market in 2015. simon, sarah? >> best performing stock market. so far this year. >> no idea. jamaica. showing it on the screen. it is the micex. you have the turn around in oil prices and on the political front, vladmir putin working with the west to combat islamic state. that's seen as an encouraging sign for investors, a sign that maybe western sanctions will be lifted sooner than expected. we'll keep an eye on those. >> china, expecting. >> i thought the latest from

brussels, they were going to reinvigorate sanctions. >> the political front, that has seen us enskurnlgicouraging the talks between putin and the west. >> up month are than 80% in 2015. that probably wasn't on your radar. thank you, seema mody. good morning, rick. >> good morning, sarah. i am looking at the two-year note. it is back around and slightly above 1%. let's look at a two day of two year note yields. it traded intraday on fed day the 16th at 101.5. right now, it is trading at 1% to give you some perspective. it continues to obviously respect the notion of tightening. now, how did everything do for the year? this may surprise you. year to date, two-year note yields, they are up 34 basis points as they sit at 1%. they settled at 66 basis points.

the three-year note isn't much different. let's go to fives. fives settle at 165. at 1.72, they are only up a handful of basis points and if you look at the 10s, they are currently up what, 7 basis points. 30s are up 23. they settle ad 2.97%. on the polar sides, the extremes, people might scratch their heads. you have been talking about curve flattening. at the end of last year, beginning of this year, they were steeper. we started to get into 2015. if you look at the dollar index, it is up about 8, 8.25. it is closing very firm. the last chart, the bunds. they closed at 54 base points last year. they trade 64 before they

settled early yesterday. they were up ten on the year. carl, back to you. happy holidays. merry christmas. >> thank you very much. rick santelli. when we come back, a trader's perspective on the recent jump in oil prices and whether that's a sign of things to come in the new year. feeling the heat in december. one ski resort will tell us how its business is coping with what could be a 75-degree day today in the northeast. we're back in just a moment. >> what, 75? when you're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about.

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look at where we are on oil prices. clearly,crude, whether we like it or not, is front and center for the markets at the end of the year this time around. >> enjoying a bit of a santa claus rally up for the third straight day. just off of the highs, below $38 a barrel for light street crude.

tom joins me this morning. this rally that we are seeing. are you buying into it? >> i think we are going to continue to rally for the next couple of days for the end of the year. that's going to bolster the prisz of o price of oil. renewed selling will make one last push down. if we can get below 34, get to $32 as well. as we go through 2016, we will get a rally. >> what's the most crowded options trade right now? what's the area people are really looking at to the down side. >> the 35 puts traded at 45,000 in the first month or so. the 35 put has the most open interest. yesterday, the 25 puts trade, a little further down the curve in

june. >> as those options begin, we might see a test of that level again. >> i think we will. >> we are coming off of a terrible two-year downward slide for oil prices here, the worst we have seen since the late '90s. more extreme than what we saw in '97 and '98. what do you think the producers are going to do in the new year? who is going to blink first in terms of production levels. >> the saudis are not going to blink. they don't want to give up any market share to the iranian oil. they are going to keep pumping. the people that have the highest cost to drill are going to blink first. you see some decline in production in the u.s. it has been enough to effect any kind of severe outcome reduction. >> the nymex hub delivery point. >> the hub there will probably continue to have surpluses. now that we are allowed to export oil, that should be

alleviated over the next 16 months. i think we are in for a long battle to get prices back up to $60, $70. >> tom, thank you so much. merry christmas to you. we will have the natural gas inventory numbers coming up at the bottom of the next hour. for this time of year, we're expecting a drawdown of 25 billion cubic feet. it shows you how warm it has been over much of the heating area of this country. back to you. >> bertha, we'll see you in a few minutes. >> ways to make money in the new year. stick around for our playbook for 2016 on the economy. first, saudi prince, invest firm buying a stake in a start-up. we'll tell you which one in just a moment. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.

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they have invested $148 million to acquire preferred shares in lift in the secondary market. >> doesn't carl icahn have a stake in lyft, acquiring the investor fan group. >> it will be interesting to see how much capital they need to compete with the likes of them. >> it is not as highly valued. >> nowhere near as highly valued. >> one of the most highly valued private companies there is at this point. >> 51. i might have seen a 60 somewhere. >> it does depend on how you actually go about valuing it. >> there air lot of things that come along with the investment that have the effect of it not being as hyatts it appears. >> if mobility on demand takes off in ten years, what could happen to auto sales? declines of 50% or more.

unbelievable. >> that's an argument if you have self-driving cars. nobody will own their own car. this had to be taken a week ago. along will come whatever fits your fancy. >> a global fleet of cars. this he will be used all the time instead of so often our car sitting in the garage 90% of the time. >> when we come back, the ski business in balmy, winter weather. we will talk about the ceo of peak reports. the dow is down 30 points.

good thursday morning on this holiday shortened trading day. i'm carl quintanilla with simon hobbs and sara eisen at the new york stock exchange. nine out of ten sectors are in the red. the road map for the hour. record-high temperatures throughout the eastern half ott the country. we will talk to the ceo about peak resorts about how he is dealing with the warm weather on the slopes. >> holiday mostists getting an earlier gift of lower gas

prices. averages falling below $2 a gallon across much of the country. will that continue? >> we'll take a look at how the retailers have fared in this holiday season. >> how the stocks are mixed as oil continues to rebound. for more on where we are likely to trade to year-end and 2016. james lui joins us, global market strategist and ward mccarfy, chief financial economist. >> what do you think they will do in the new year? >> if you look at 2015, you have that holiday, glass half full view. it could have been much worse. we had this big earnings recession. you had global uncertainties and uncertainties around the fed. we are probably going to end up flat here. when you look at the next year, a lot of the themes are still the same. we'll still see central bank divergence. from that perspective, you model this out. it is hard not to get this kind of mid to high single digit

return expectation in 2016. >> mid to high single digits. >> i'm thinking around 5% to 7%. a lot of it is the rebounding earnings based on the earning recession we had in 2015. >> you are positive on earnings generally or because energy could come back. >> both actually. you look at nonenergy and nonmaterials earnings in 2015 to get a sense of what things would have looked like if we hadn't had these big drags. they looked good. on top of that, you get this rebound you just mentioned. it looks like 2016 will be a decent year for earnings. >> is that view bourn out by how you see the economy, the underlying state of things. >> the u.s. economy is headed for a better year in 2016 than it had in 2015. of course, even in 2015, we pretty much led the pack as far as global growth is concerned. so from a market standpoint, i think that makes the u.s. you an attractive place to invest.

i also think, however, that we are going to see significant volatility at least until we figure out exactly what the feds new reaction function is. the popular view right now is the feds are going to raise rates four times in 2016. i don't think that happens. i think it is pomore likely tha they raise rates twice. >> you have accurately described the divergence between their own graph and dots of expectations where the market is. do you join this herd of people that are bleeting that the federal reserve made a mistake in raising rates. they will harm both the economy and the market. >> i think the time was right. zero interest rate policy, an emergency policy. the u.s. economy has not been in an emergency state for quite some time. the fed has been approaching norm

normalization. they don't want to disrupt the efforts overseas to get their economies going. >> james, one thing we haven't gotten to yet in 2016. there is going to be a rather large election. i wonder to what degree are you starting to fold in full numbers. iowa, new hampshire. into your forecast. how is that going to move stocks next year? >> i think the election has less to do with stocks and some of the things that congress has got implemented the last couple of weeks. tax packages, for example. that may boost the economy by half a percent to 1 percent s you look historically, trying to trade the markets or time the markets based on elections is a losing proposition. policy takes a long time. it is easily priced into the markets very quickly. i would look at economic fundamentals, the ones we are talking about, rather than to try to time some story. >> i was going to ask you about small capps. i can't tell you how many portfolio managers came on our network and said, that's what

you want to be buying when the rest of the world is slowing and the dom ar is strengthening. the russell has underperformed the s&p. it is down a little more than 5% so far this year. how did they get that so wrong? what happens next year? >> that's not something i really believed. the crux of the argument is that if the dollar is strengthening, small cap stocks have less exposure. there are two reasons. one is if you look at-large cap stocks, that's what the cheapness in the market is. we talked about all this cash that needs to be spent and low leverage still in this economy. it has really enlarged cap companies. that's where you want to be. if you think about the large and online retailers that everyone is talking about, for example, historically speaking, these companies would be a dozen companies but in the new technological environment they are getting in, they are getting rolled up. a lot of the earnings growth countered to popular historical

wisdom. >> the companies that expand, vast economies of scale. the landscape is changing? >> historically, if you wanted fast revenue growth, you might look for a smaller company. also, if you thought the dollar was going to continue to appreciate, that might further enhance the likeability of those companies. we don't think the dollar is going to go that much further up from here. a lot of these large companies are what the revenue growth is. it is both in internet stocks and some pockets of health care and areas of consumer discretionary. >> james lieu, thank you very much. joining us from chase morgan. >> as 2015 draws to a close, we are breaking out the 2016 play back looking at weighs you cays make money in the new year. >> steve liesman, what's ahead

for next year. >> the big question in 2016, how many times will the federal reserve hike reserve hike interest rates? >> inflation will move higher as the year progresses. employment win down shift to between 125,000 and 175,000 jobs per month. more in line with labor force growth overall. economic growth could shift slightly upwards, more towards 2.5% than 2%. all of that suggests to the fed that raises three times in 2016, depending on the data. my big call for 2016, a change in how the stock market reacts to the decline in oil prices. they come to realize that oil prices are good for the u.s. economy and rallies where prices fall might have been the other way around. >> that's not the case right

now. markets are priced for two hikes and the fed's forecast is for four. the strength of the economy will referee that. a 90 basis points or an upper range of 140 or 1.4% for overnight money. i don't think that makes or breaks the economy next year. >> that is a very bold call, the idea, steve, that the market would like oil. it is what you would think conventionally. i wonder what would change the dynamic. i brought up this idea that maybe if gas prices stay low, stay below $2 a gallon for a long period of time, once consumers have put away their savings and paid their phone bills, maybe they will start to loosen the purse strings. is that sort of the idea? >> you would think. it is a bold call. it is the opposite of what's happening now. it is not a bold call, because it is underpinned by the fundamental idea that the united states economy is still a net importer of oil. it ben fritz from cheaper oil. there is a lot of disruption that has been happening.

some of the oil and energy-related high yield notes. that has been disrupted. you have a down shifted investment. overall, you do see it, by the way, in better consumer spending. i think the consumer is probably a pretty decent bet for next year. the manufacturing and energy-related sectors are not. >> i wonder if we need to factor in china into the economic forecast. i know the u.s. and china, they do trade. they are obviously connected. if you look at the federal reserve pause in september, one of the things you can pinpoint is this chinese currency depreciation. the tumultuous chinese stock that we say. we should feel that here, right, steve? >> it does. i think the fed learned a lesson from august and i think it overrated the danger from china there. i don't think they would make the mistake again. i think the market learned that

lesson too. chinese growth matters but it doesn't matter in terms of systemic risk. what happened so far did not matter. i think that's why they were much more likely to look through the high-yield disruption going into the december rate hike. it takes a lot to create big, global, systemic risk situation. you have not had the ingredients for that, either from china or the high-yield. >> we are going to find out pretty shortly how the year gets started, steve. thank you very much. our steve liesman. >> when we come back, if you put off some or part of your shopping, it turns out retailers like last-minute shoppers. hyatt is the latest company to get hit by a data breach. details when we return.

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if you haven't finished your christmas shopping, don't worry. retailers are counting on procrastination. >> last-minute shoppers are not alone. they have plenty of company. >> they are the biggest cohort spenders and the fastest growing. the jump from to 2013 to 2014 was a 12% increase in overall sales. this year could see an even

bigger jump. the way the retail season is getting stretched out to the very last second is changing retailers strategies for advertising and for what kind of deals they can give out. reminders of free shipping today. we got the info from cardlitics. they have detailed transaction data. they help retailers figure out who is a loyal customer, who might be swayed and how to get them to buy more. the last-minute growth of last-minute shoppers tells us we can't rely on the data points we have seen so far. we are not going to know how well it fared until it is over, until the end of today and a little bit of tomorrow. the only thing we know, you can still get things shipped in an hour or two in major cities. be on the lookout for big data points in this final week as they start to many could through over into this weekend. simon, back to you. >> why do you think people are delaying? because they are generally lazy

and procrastinating or they think there are bigger deals? >> because they can. >> in research, college kids showed if the homework assignments got pushed out, everybody procrastinates, because that's what our brains tell us to do. if amazon can ship today, why would i do it early? every year, this group gets bigger and bigger. >> thank you very much. >> if you stayed at a hyatt recently, the hotel giant would like you to check your credit card statements and report any unauthorized activity. hyatt revealing that thieves infected its payment processing systems with malware programs to steal card holders numbers, and names and internal verification codes. systems are now once again safe to use after it strengthened their security. some questioning why the attack is only now being made public whether it was first discovered almost four weeks ago. the hyatt security breach topping off what's been a pretty dismal period for share holders

controlled by the billionaire family. hyatt's stock is currently down 18% for the year to date. in general, they questioned whether the lodging industry is peaking and will struggle to fill its room rates at current prices in 2016. also, watching shares of nike today, because it is trading with a new price tag. last night, they split the stock in two. they are trading in the $60 range. down 2.5%. shareholders received two shares for every one they held. this is nike's seventh stock split in history. the last came when the price of the stock was approaching 100. it doesn't matter much for valuation or anything in terms of earnings but it could open up nike to a broader retailer investor base. that is usually the goal. interestingly, it does matter for the dow jones industrial

average, which is a price-weighted index. consumer discretionary makes up less than 17% of the dow from 18% before. now, industrials gained to about 20%. o the opposite of the s&p does have a slightly higher weighting. nike's gains have had heed fuel the dow. it is the number one performer of 2015. it just posted another solid quarter and a solid outlook into next year. if it continues to gain as we saw this year, it won't help the dow as much. >> people still believe the old nonsense if the price of the stock is high, it is an expensive stock. a. >> there is a retail group that would want a more successive price. companies still do this.

they did it last year for similar reason. >> very little money that follows the dow. the index that matters is the s&p given how statistically insignificant as a result of being price weighted. >> there is that caveat. >> up next, it is not going to be a white christmas, i'm afraid but definitely a warm christmas. how is that affecting the ski industry? the ceo of peak resorts will join us live to talk about that and the ability to make your own snow.

we are the choices we make. > live in new york central park, for more on what is a balmy christmas. sarah, over to you. >> reporter: it is a fantastic day, simon. you can see people behind knee out here enjoying the weather. let's be honest. santa is going to have to shed a few layers tonight. we are already breaking records. the previous high for christmas eve was 63. at midnight, we are at 64

degrees and it is only going to continue to climb. the highs expected to be 74 degrees. it is not just new york we are talking about. boston is going to be in the mid-60s. philadelphia is also going to see the 70s. for some, the ability to be out in short sleeves in december is just a dream come true. for others, they say it doesn't really feel like the holidays without the cold temperatures. they say it is kind of hard to get motivated to do your christmas shopping. here in new york, doesn't mean it is a sunny day. we are going to deal with patchy fog and scattered showers. airlines and airports are hoping that is relatively minor. they have a backlog of passengers from last night and yesterday. there were widespread delays and cancellations. as of right now, laguardia, one of the main troubled spots is running on time. so is newark. however, jfk, about an hour delay due to rain. carl, back to you. >> thank you very much sarah

dalloff. let's bring in tim boyd, ceo of peak reports. i'll start with the most obvious question. how many lifts are actually open? >> we actually have two ski areas that are operational up in vermont, new hampshire. we expect to get more of our ski areas online this weekend. next week, it looks like the weather is going to switch back to the winter. we expect to ramp up very quickly. >> is this relative to past seasons, the latest you have opened in a number of years or not? >> no. historically, our three major holiday periods are christmas, martin luther king and presidents' day. generally speaking, the christmas holiday is always the least reliable because it is at the beginning of the season when obviously the weather is the least reliable. >> with the temperatures where

they are, i assume you are able to manufacture some snow. how long does it last? is that a challenge? >> during this warm period, we made quite a bit of snow last weekend at some of our areas. we left it in piles and didn't touch it. it actually stands up to this weather pretty well. on saturday, we will be pushing those pies out to open up some runs. >> looking at the stock chart. pretty ugly. down 30% in december alone given these warm temperatures. so what exactly are you expecting in terms of sales declines. how much have you presold in terms of season tickets that you can lock in and how much are you going to lose? >> our season pass sales through october were up about 4%. i think the stock price issue is kind offer conventional wisdom is that the entire winter is going to be like the last two weeks. i think the change in the weather pattern next week is going to probably prove all those prognostications next week inaccurate.

>> what is the problem here? is the skiing experience very different if you are making your own snow? are you able to cover less areas? people can't go there. talk us through from a practical standpoint the difference on a day like today vis-a-vis last year? >> obviously, we can cover all of our mountains with our own man-made snow. the one thing about our particular model. we are in the day and the overnight drive segment of the business. our customer base really has a very short league time in terms of their decision making to come to our resorts. as soon as the we they aather te are able to many ramp up our snow-making systems. >> i was going to ask about pricing. denver, pricing has gone bananas. i can imagine either a few lifts open. out of mind for people, pricing gets weak. a lot of skiers are waiting for their turn.

maybe you have some leverage there. which is it? >> the key is, obviously, when we don't have as much terrain open early, we don't charge quite as much. as next week unfolds and we are able to open up a lot mortar rain, our price will obviously go up as we ramp up more of our terrain. our demand will increase as the christmas week bears on. generally speaking, the higher demand is at the end rather than at the beginning. >> are you jealous of the vails and deer valley. >> i have been in this business for over 30 years. i quit complaining a long time ago. >> maybe with these crazy temperatures, tim, you have to think about rebalancing the portfolio to encompass more geography. there is snow in northern california. >> i don't want to come off whining about one warm month in the east. i sympathize with the guys way

out west. they have suffered through three seasons of really tough conditions out there. i'm happy for them. in the ski industry, we are a small enough industry, we all root for each other. i think it is great for them. i think the weather pattern is obviously going to start turning in our favor next week. that time is going to be great for us. >> what comes around, goes around. that's for sure. tim, best wishes. merry christmas. thanks for coming in. tim boyd is the peak report ceo and president. straight ahead, many americans are hitting the road on one of the busiest travel days of the year and paying a lot less for gas. will the trend continue into the new year. we are talking gas prices straight ahead on "squawk on the street" with the dow down 34 points.

i'm scott wapner. daily fantasy sports betting is illegal gambling under illinois law. draft king responded by saying they intend to seek a judicial resolution. fan duel asked for lawmakers to give back to the illinois people the games they love. an overnight fire has killed 31 people at a hospital in southwestern saudi arabia. another 100 were injured. the fire broke out around the hospital's intensive care unit. that is under investigation. iraqi security forces have reported progress in recapturing some areas from isis militants.

a spokesman says the advance was slowed by snipers, roadside bombs and boobie-trappeded buildings sdp. >> a hot pink lamborghini is getting a lot of attention in japan. the reason, it is made of cardboard. it took the creator two years to design it and another six months to make it. try to tell the difference between that and the real one. that's our cnbc news update. back to you. merry christmas to everybody on that set. >> same to you, scott. we are getting some nat gas inventories as we speak. bertha coombs. >> nat gas withdrawal, a little more bullish than expected. down 32 billion cubic feet. the average, 25. that compares to the average over the last five years of 120 billion cubic feet with the record temperatures. which are seeing nat gas for the

first time on the expectation it will be cooler, particularly west of the rockies, starting in the new year. we nay smay see a little bit of heating demand. they are on pace for the seventh down year in the last ten. sarah, back to you. >> it has been a brutal period. the holiday travel rush well underway with millions of americans expected to take a trip this holiday season. bad weather is reeking havoc for thousands of air passengers in the northeast yesterday and into today. our hampton pierson live at reagan national airport in d.c. what's the update? >> from our friends at flightaware.com, right now, as of about 15 minutes ago, nationwide, about 600 delays, a little shy of two dozen cancellations. that's in a universe of on any given day, 21,000 flights nationwide. most of the problems are primarily at the atlanta hub but also in new york, chicago, and

even some. a few minor delays in d.c. being reported. far below normal and a far better christmas eve getaway travel day. think back to the christmas of 2012 when we had those huge back to back storms in the northeast. there were something like 4300 flight cancellations. fast forward to the here and now. not only the incredibly mild win tir but, lower gas prices for the airlines in particular. they have a lot to celebrate this season. >> it is warm this winter. there is not a lot of snow on the ground, not a lot of ice. the airlines are largely on time. it is one of the best winter seasons from a holiday travel perspective. oil prices are at recent lows. this is going to be a really terrific quarter and a terrific year for airlines. >> the planes are full. about 90% plus according to a

leading airline industry group. >> believe it or not, according to aaa, airline fares are actually 6% lower than they were this time last year. on average, about $174 round trip. of course, a lot of those fares were bought months in advance. so happy holidays to all of you guys. >> that is good news on the he's front. did not realize that. hampton pierson, thanks very much for the report. >> it certainly is going to be a merry christmas for drivers with gas prices below $2 a gallon in much of the country. will that continue through the year? tom kloza is the head of energy anal assist for opis, the parent company for gas buddy that tracks the price of gas across the nation. thanks for joining us. >> tell us, do you expect the sub-2 dollars a gal to continue. yes, if you are talking about

every state but california. no, if you are talking about california. we are seeing an interesting divergence. i wouldn't be surprised to see anywhere from $1.50 to $1.90 east of california in various states. tumbling below $1.50 briefly. california can see prices go back above 3s. th they really are an exception. >> we are looking at wti crude. 37.84. they jumped above 38. we have seen a bounce in the last few sessions versus earlier in december. does that mean gas prices will go back up again before they come lower? >> they will go up perhaps on the west coast. the rest of the country should continue to drift lower. these are very high gasoline prices relative to where crude is. refiners are probably having their best december ever for gasoline margins.

january is the weakest month for gasoline. 70 degrees in the northeast. there really aren't that many destinations. demand in january tends to be about 1 million barrels a day or lower than you see in june, july, and august. >> we are watching west texas come to parody and flip slightly. what effect does that have on refining and gas prices to are us? >> some refiners had tremendous advantages in the mid continent or they could run canadian crude. there were point it's where they could buy crude for $40 or $60 under world prices. everything is compressed. the difference is that most crudes are somewhere between 25 and maybe $39 a barrel. i suspect that this rally that we are seeing in the last couple of days is a little bit of a foolish rally. we'll retest the lows late february, march, when refineries go to banks.

so i still think we are going to test that december, 2008 level of 32.40 to 33. i don't expect we will get beneath that. you never know. >> a texas energy company is the first to load freel traded company off the country for the first time since the embargo was lifted. what difference does that make to this country? >> it doesn't make much of a difference as long as prices remain where they are, which is very, very subdued. were the price of crude oil to double, we would see many, many more exports. where you may see the first exports become controversial, will be from alaska to the far east. it is very close to being sort of more economical to move that stuff on foreign flag vessels than on u.s. vessels. that could be the point of controversy next year. >> just on the price of oil next year, as we try to game out whether it is going to rebound. the last time we saw these kind

of levels, tom, back during the financial crisis, we had a very strong comeback from these $30 levels to above $100 levels but we had opec cutting and the federal reserve cutting rates and weakening the dollar. both of those factors are in reverse. is there any hope for the bulls for any kind of recovery next year, the kind that we have seen last time? >> i think there is hope for the bulls but to be bullish, you have to be looking for maybe a price of $50 or more and it would be late in 2016. otherwise, you need something geopolitically. beyond isis, something that threatens oil fields or some of the oil production. the risk is actually that libya and some other countries might actually see their production ramp up. so it is going to be a long time before cruz ode oil really recovers. >> tom, thank you. arguably, the story of 2015, from opis and gas buddy. >> if you have a tree, do you

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hanging on to the title of the worst performing sector so far year to date. in today's trade, the shares of devon energy, all down between 1%, 2%. exxon falling more than 1% to win. simon, energy stocks giveth yesterday and they taketh away today. >> and that is life, don. two hours and 17 minutes to trade until the holiday season or until christmas break, anyway. let's get to rick santelli. good morning, rick. >> good morning, simon. i would like to welcome our guest, corporate and junk bonds expert, peter guest. merry christmas. >> merry christmas to you too, rick. >> in sticking with the holiday spirit, let's look at the high yield of the past an the future. on the past score, all that volatility, what the charles dickene dickens was going on when the

fed was getting ready to meet? what did you think of that? >> i think people got very nervous. it got oversold. we saw huge volumes and that was the signal to buy. i think fortunately, we won't get a lump of cold in the high-yield market going into the year-end. >> a lot of volume and volatility. one of the themes of 2014, '15 and i'm sure '16, is liquidity in markets, specially fixed income. liquidity in volume is not necessarily the same. you were writing about it. explain. >> they were saying, this might be an attractive opportunity. they do not want to buy individual bonds. they get this diversified portfolio. they can put risks to work and they are not taking that ideosyncratic risk, that they are owning the one bond that is going to get into trouble. i think you are going to see

what we call beta products continue to attract attention. that's where the liquidity is in the short term. >> it leads me to my next topic. i'm a treasury guy, started out trading many futures markets and they are derivatives of the cash market, particularly investment yield and corporate high yield. you gave me one positive with regard to liquidity. are there any negatives? on the other hands, let's contrast the derivatives. >> the etfs are designed to focus on the liquid high yield, which is a subsection of the market. a lot of those that can outperform, they outperform, because they can do the credit work and find smaller credits. the one negative of this, focus on the etf. it is focusing too many investors into the liquid part of the market. they should be looking at mutual

funds and maybe just closed-end funds. for longer-term investing, they may be misleading in terms of putting people into the wrong types of trades. >> our final minute or so, what about the future? i know that you are optimistic on this sector, specially high-yield? you write that you would rather pay more attention to investment grade with regard to stock market risk. your final can comment on that, sir. >> that's where people should focus. it is always much more correlated to the s&p 500, sply aft specially after this last year. any time they needed money for a stock buyback or dividend, they were completely willing and able to provide that. if that starts slowing down and we see spreads wide, i think that's a much bigger negative for the stock market than high yield. i think the market can easily sustain what's going on in the high-yield market right now. it is isolated to weak credits in certain sectors. >> excellent.

peter, you are certainly not a scrooge on the opportunities in this sector. merry christmas. thanks for taking the time. sarah, back to you. >> rick santelli, happy holidays and thanks. up next, a mixed bag for stocks this year. what is the beginning of 2016 have in store. some useful facts to know about january trading right after the break.

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it's gotten squarer. over the years. brighter. bigger. it's gotten thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks.

x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. >> what's it is scene like, and just how good are the deals? our scott cohen is coming to us live from a kohl's department store in san jose. good morning. >> good morning. the retailers have gotten themselves in a catch 22, which they seem to do year after year. sales looking a little soft, so they discount some more. that means profits are down, so they have to discount even more to get more people into the store. you have chains like kohl's and basically a lot of the big box chains that are opening now 24 hours in the week ahead of

christmas to bring people in. we did find people basically in the middle of the night out here in san jose, california. what would bring you into a khol's store at 3:30 in the morning? good question. >> i feel like a lot of people there's definitely sales and stuff. >> i always love shopping, and i can't often go to the store right after work, so i thought i would come because they're open 24 hours. >> and they're still open. they're still in there shopping. there really are some pretty decent deals in here. >> tough for the reporter --

>> will all those holiday gifts make it under the tree in time? morgan brennan is tracking now. >> hey, simon. that is the question right now. even though we've had record warm temperatures throughout the new york area and many places in the northeast. also, it is now going to run operations tomorrow on christmas day. that was not the plan before, and it allows customers to pick up packages. ups says it too is keeping a close eye on the weather. as of this morning, its network is running 9 % on time. it's been able to accommodate most customer requests for additional volume. that company says it had a strong air volume last night at

its main sorting hub with everything processed overnight. that's potentially good news for ups. investors have been specifically focused on 2013 when so many packages were delayed and last year when the company overcompensated and spent more than it actually ended up meaning to. the partner says adverse weather is the single most common exception in carrier site when missing on time guaranteed commitments. he expects the storms in the south to potentially pressure the strong on time delivery performances that have been logged by both of these companies over the past several weeks up until this point, but it does look like how is fedex going to fair over the next 24 hours. sarah. >> but -- you make an important point in that conversation with ups. this year it's about these shipping companies better talking to their clients about what people are clicking on, what the volume will be and

where they can take that through the network. they're with ups having put limits on what customers can send them explicitly and then negotiating to raise that through the season. that's important in terms of getting the stuff there on time. it will tell you that they are planning for this peak season literally right after last christmas and last season ended up last december. what we have seen with both of these carriers this year is that they have been willing to potentially cap volumes from retailers and e-tailers that would be spending last minute unexpectedly large orders through their system so there has been a lot more. analysts will tell you there's been a lot more -- the ball has been in their court much more. there's been more communication on that front. you may be asking what can

investors expect come january? we have performance data to share. >> all right. sarah, we decided to ask our data partners to take a look at some of the seasonalities around how stocks trade in the month of january. over the course of the last ten januarys we have actually seen a stock market that hasn't performed all that stellar. according to the data for the last ten januarys, including this year's january, the s&p 500 has posted an average return of greater than 1% to the down side, and it's been positive only in coin toss 50% of the time. to put that in context, it makes it the second worst forming month in terms of monthly returns, again, over the course of any given year for the s&p 500. average 1.5% declines during that month. it's been negative 60% of the

time. as for the best performing one, if you will, it's still april, an average of 2.5% in the up side. an april positive nine out of ten times over the course of that year. simon, when we take a look at seasonality trades, there's always cavats here. this is always the last ten years. it frames it around what the current market look likes. when we talk about january returns, sometimes investors will be looking for at least a little bit of a pullback. at least if history is any guide. it's never a guarantee of future returns. >> john, what can we expect? >> merry christmas to you, simon. more evidence that amazon has its own transportation plans. we'll dig into that. also, weather, what impact is that going to have on the last

hours of the christmas rush. finally, daily fantasy sports facing more head winds. all that and more coming up on "squawk alley." ♪ come on, wake up!!! come on,why ya sleepin'? come on! what time is it? it's go time. come on. let's go, let's go, let's go. woooo hoooo!! yeah!! i feel like i went to bed an hour ago. yeah!! i'll make the cocoa. get a great offer on the car of your grown-up dreams at the mercedes-benz winter event. it's the look on their faces that make it all worthwhile. hurry, these offers end january 4th. thank you santa!!! i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one.

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this morning on this christmas eve, one of our favorite tradition on this day

is the singing of "wait until the sunshines nelly" here on the floor of the exchange. our bob pasani is on the exchange to bring us that moment. bob. >> certain things change and certain things don't. barbershop singing goes back to the 1860s. this song written in 1905 has been a staple down here every single year since the early 1930s. here's art cashin, the lead of the annual rendition of "wait until the sun shines, nelly." >> one, two, three. ♪ wait until the sun shines, nelly ♪ ♪ as the clouds go drifting by ♪ we will be happy, nellie ♪ don't you cry ♪ down lovers lane we'll wander ♪ ♪ sweetheart, you and i ♪ wait till