rolled out the teasers, it's been kind of nice to watch. wouldn't you agree? >> master class. >> we got a new viewer in the franchise right here. >> sarah eisen will see you this weekend too. >> merry christmas. we'll see you next week. it's time for the closing bell. bill and kelly. >> thank you, guys. welcome to the closing bell on a noon here on the east coast. markets are closing early because it is christmas eve. i'm kelly. >> i'm bill griffith. we've had a quiet day, as you can imagine. not a lot of volatility. anywhere the vix has fallen to 15.5 where we were a couple of months ago. we're going out quietly on this christmas eve. >> well, shopping and shipping. no surprise. they are the top stories today. even last minute shoppers still trying to buy gifts on-line. we'll talk about whether the

shippers, like ed fedex and ups can keep up with all this demand. >> oil moving higher once again today. we have one of our guests saying we have not yet hit a bottom. she says crude will take another dip this next quarter. she'll make her case coming up in just a little bit. >> food fight. chipolte versus mcdonald's. two very different moves over the last three months. we have someone who says both stocks could be winners in the new year. we'll explain why coming up. the last minute rush for gifts. scott cohen is at a mall in san jose, california, and morgan brennan has the latest on the shippers and how they're getting it done by christmas eve. scott, start with you. they're in chilly, san jose. >> yeah, it's colder here than

there, bill. this is one of the areas where brick and mortar actually has a bit of an edge on the on-line with the procrastinators. nonetheless, it has been a challenging season for the brick and mortar retailers. that means they have to bring in more people to bring in the revenue, and have you places like this kohl's store in san jose who has been open 24 hours a day for the last week. why would someone come to a kohl's on christmas eve? people have their reasons. >> i was here at 7:30 yesterday evening, and the line was all the way back there. i didn't have time to stay around and make purchases. >> is this last minute shopping? >> it's a little bit of last minute shopping. i have some more to do after this. >> i knew they were open early, so i thought i would beat all the last minute people, and i'm actually just buying a few -- well, maybe a few last minute stocking stuffers. >> we always wait until the last minute to do our christmas shopping. at least i'm to blame for that. >> as of a week ago, the

national retail federation said still about 10% of shoppers hadn't gotten all of their shopping done. again, a little bit of a chance for the brick and mortar folks to make things up. bill and kelly. >> well, thank you, scott. many americans are now waiting to see by the door if that last minute gift delivery will actually arrive on time, and there have been a few troubling reports thus far. morgan brennan has more. hi, morgan. >> we're getting down to the wire here, and what's really happening is we have severe storms in the south that could affect last minute deliveries there as we count down to christmas. ups says it's keeping a close eye on that weather, but that as of this morning the network is running 98% on time, and that it has been able to accommodate more than 200 customer requests for additional volume. fedex, however, says due to the storms, it was operating with slight delays this morning. now, it's been making operational adjustments, including plans to now run operations on christmas day and keep express stations open for 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. tomorrow to allow customers to come in and pick up packages.

even before that update there were some scattered reports of certain retailers. eddie bauer and pacific sun wear having delivery issues, telling customers that some shipments via fedex could be delayed. now, the gap is also having some issues. it's another company to keep an eye on, and reporting that due to an internal error that has since been fixed that some on-line orders were shipped last weekend with incorrect delivery dates for after christmas eve. we've reached out to the gap for comment. in the meantime, as you can see right here, the number of people taking to twitter to vent their frustration at the gap and the fact that they put those orders in days ahead of time and they're not necessarily going to see them in time under the tree for christmas. guys. >> i feel bad for that guy who said it's my first christmas with my wife. >> i know. >> oh, man. i hope they can figure something out. >> he will probably end up at kohl's. >> they're in the honeymoon phase. i'm sure it will work out just fine. thanks.

rick santelli. steve, what do you do? sfwloop i guess if you have stuff that you wanted to make a sale on that you didn't get a shot at doing, so you probably stay the opportunity on a day like today to get that slow drift higher. i'm not sure you really reshift your portfolio on a day like today. i think you just wait and see for the next week or so. you have any taxable stuff that you want to do? that's a given. if you want to really rejigger your portfolio, i think you got to wait until january in my opinion. >> sure. michael, are you guys waiting? what moves are you making here? >> yeah. i would agree. the last couple of weeks it's portfolio rejiggering. portfolios can't be trusted. price, et cetera. it's a tough time to do much. what you try to do is take advantage of maybe things that

are oversold due to tax law selling that you may be interested in. you know, particularly for the new year. not at this point. definitely not. it's that process. we're well into it at this point, and looking forward to the new year really. >> sectors? anything? sure. when you are in the middle of trying to make these decisions, you are not public with them. i think from an equity standpoint we're looking for sector that is we think will do well in that environment as well as things that have been beaten down. energies, transports, industrials, financials, some retails. some biotech. all look good going forward into the new year. from a fixed income standpoint, we don't know how many more rate increases we're going to get, how the economy is going to hold up in light of those, and so we're more on the shorter

duration and higher quality spectrum of fixed income, and we do like going forward commodities and precious metals in that the fed is raidsing. there are going to be inflationary pressures. we are seeing it -- precious metals going forward for long-term investment look good. >> rick, we have a couple of guests coming up. one says commodities may have bottomed at this point, and the another one says oil is destined to go lower from here. it's the great debate going on, and i guess a lot of it depends on what the dollar does, which is not exactly performed that well since the fed raised rates, as we discussed yesterday. >> no. you're exactly right. i have lived through a lot of commodity cycles, and there are parking lots littered with traders that made the wrong call trying to pick bottoms and tops in commodities, but i will tell you one thing for sure. when it comes to commodities, you'll know when they've turned, and i think it's true with oil as well. not only will you get very, you know, large moves, big straight lines on your bar charts, but you get the accompanying volume and open interest changes as

well. i think another thing we need to say is when it comes to interest rates, everybody is worrying about an interest rate rising environment. yes, from the fed's perspective, but from the middle class perspective, the prime rate went up immediately. they're saving rates aren't going to go up. the home equity loans are going to reprice. i don't see that any of that is good news for the middle class, but i think ultimately the fact that rates will stay low because economies just aren't what they used to be ultimately that's the benefit, and i really point out today that the short end continues even on the slow day to find sellers in two and three-year notes. >> by the way, speaking of sellers into the stock market, there's another dynamic we haven't talked much about, but the "wall street journal" highlighted recently, and its sovereign wealth funds. i wonder if that's a $7 trillion global pool of assets. there's 79 of them, and a lot of them are in commodity producing countries. as those keep falling, is that putting more selling pressure on all kinds of holdings coming

from the sovereign wealth funds, steve grasso? >> i would assume that's the case. also, commodity is going to year end. we have to remember that export ban being lifted. i think it was a huge catalyst for crude lifting in its price levels. i do think that come january, february, we're going see that reversion back. selling. we're going to see the wholesale space materials, industrials. i wouldn't count too much in this last two weeks of trading. >> no, but i'm wondering as we look into 2016, you know, is this a group of buyers that have just had huge pools of wealth amassed and then put into all sorts of assets and now they're saying, hey, you know, the money to some extent is running out or governments want to grab it because their coughers are under pressure because commodity prices have fallen. steve, do you sense that that could be an important class of buyer -- of sellers of assets next year? >> it could, and i think that i guess my point is the only thing that we are going to see is more sell pressure in commodities going forward. as we look at the price levels,

i don't think the worst has happened yet. we look at oil. i don't think you can say that a $20 price in crude, wti, is off the table. i think these are short-term moves. >> michael, you like the energy -- >> there's one more negative. >> go ahead, rick. >> there's one more negative to dropping moderatety prices, and that's central bank's response to dropping commodity prices. trust me, i just don't find a logic in how more qe or lower interest rates is going to make the deleveraging in the super cycle end better, but that's always a discussion that we leave out, and i think it's something to consider. >> rick is right. i don't think you can. i think you have to have a strong stomach or long-term time

horizon, and i think what's going to shift in the moderatety space is global economic growth. demand. i don't necessarily see that on the horize orn right now either. let me see if we can see all three as we are for the moment. just raise of hands is the proportion of shopping that you did this year more on-line or in stores for you guys? is it more on-line? if so, raise a hand. steve. >> in stores? >> i was wondering if the hand was going up there. are there packages that you are still waiting to see if they get delivered tonight? >> i made the mistake last year. i'm definitely a last minute guy when it comes to shopping. this year i did it all on-line, and i did it a month ago. i didn't want to run that risk.

i am -- i am going to say i'm 95% on-line shopper, and you know what my stock has been, kelly. it's benham zon, and i think amazon for me is retail. it's tech. it's everything. i think that one has a bright future ahead. >> wow. a month ago, show off. you must be boiling in that sweater, by the way. >> i'm shopping for easter gifts as we speak. >> yes. well done. >> merry christmas, guys. thank you. >> thank you. >> merry christmas, you guys. the last one before christmas. the dow is negative by about 21 points. the s&p is slightly positive. the nasdaq is up by about 11 points. >> and two for one stocks are not exactly helping nike shares, which are something to become ice cold. up next, we will look at whether the rally is over for what have been the best performing dow stock in 2015. >> and speaking of once red hot stocks, we'll hear from somebody who says chipolte's selloff is overblown is betting on a big comeback next year. stay tuned.

welcome back. hyatt hotel shares under pressure today after the company said its payment processing

system had been hacked. it is still unclear whether hackers stole credit card numbers or how many hotels were affected, but hyatt is the fourth major hotel chain to warn of the data breach just since october. kelly. >> dochristmas may be tomorrow, but it is a winter wonderland. new york's central park feels a lot more like the fourth of july than christmas. hi, sarah. >> hey. you know, normally the average temperatures for the month of december is about 37.5 degrees. contrast that with today where the high is expected to be 74 degrees, and you understand why people out here are a little confused by the so-called winter weather. you're looking at video we shot this morning. yes, those are people in shorts. we saw some short sleeves. a crop top there. a gorgeous rainbow above the skyscrapers. beautiful but very unexpected on christmas eve. people really taking advantage of this warm weather. for sh people the ability to be

out here today in very light layers is kind of a dream come true. for other people they say this doesn't feel quite like christmas without those cold temperatures. some telling us they're procrastinating on finishing up their last minute christmas shopping. we're not just talking about new york. boston is going to be in the 60s. philadelphia in the low 70s. a warm christmas up and down the eastern coast. now, here in new york we're going to be seeing some scattered showers. we're going to be seeing some fog. airlines are hoping that it stays relatively mild. they have a backlog to catch up on from yesterday where we had a lot of fog and low visibility. stranding some passengers, causing widespread delays. right now newark is running on time. there's minor delays at la guardia. jfk, however, delays averaging about an hour. much better than yesterday. still, if you want to get somewhere for christmas, it's frustrating. back to you. >> sarah delhoff.

you are clearly dressing for the calendar and not for the weather today. you don't need that coat, do you? >> you know, the wind actually kicked up, and the clouds rolled over the sun, and it got chilly. it's really humid out here, so when you lose that sun, it does get chilly and damp. >> very good. sarah, thank you very much. central park. well, it may be warm outside here in new york city, but it turned ice cold for shares of nike despite the two for one stocks that went into effect today. sarah eisen has details for us on that. >> it has been a winner. it's up 31% so far this year. could be seeing some profit taking in the final few days of the year. window dressing, that sort of thing. also, some have pointed to a disappointing margin forecast from nike for next quarter. warning this week that it does have some extra inventories to work through. all in all nike is finishing a strong year on a strong note. the split, bill just mentioned, reflects that. shareholders receiving two shares for every one nike one they hold, and now nike shares

are trading at half the price in the 60s. there have been opportunities for retail investors who look to buy stocks with lower price tags. that's usually the idea behind the splits. nike did it back in 2012. since then the stock doubled. in fact, this is the seventh time in nike's history that it has split its stock two for one. obviously, stocks splits don't matter for the valuation for nike. it does matter for the dow jones industrial average because that's a price discretionaries represented in the dow. industrials get a better weighting at 20% of the dow. nike has fuelled this index this year. number one performer of 2015. i threw in wal-mart because it is the worst performer of 2015. down 30%. it gives you kind of a mixed picture of the consumer on spending and retail this year. shows that we're spending on sports wear, and it may reflect a direct recovery with income levels and it may point to demand from investors for companies that are ino vat and

keeping up with consumer trends and for that, guys, nike gets high marks and a high valuation. it's valued at the highest since the mid 90s. investors say and analysts say for them to keep up the kind of stock market performance, they have to keep up those kind of results that we got in this past quarter. 22% profit growth. >> the stock buyback, i get. the dividend increase i get. a lot of analysts are questioning why another stock split? is it just as simple as you point out that they want to still be attractive to individual investors who look at the nominal price, not just the value of that? >> that's the idea. also, nike, as i mentioned, has a track record of doing it. every time the stock runs up to the $100 level, it splits two for one. they didn't come out and say why they were splitting the stock, but that's generally the feeling. if you look at some of the analysts price targets on the stock, guys, they're all still bullish. we have to wait to see what their split adjusted price target goes to, and obviously that influences the earnings per share as well. people are very bullish on this

one. >> reflecting on what are you saying. a bigger part of the industrial average, which seems appropriate. mike is saying we are talking about the dogs of the dow dividend over growth strategy to buy the dividend players in the new we're. it doesn't work the way that it is conceived in the 1990s because there are so many names like a nike and apple now that may reflect the economy a little bit better. don't necessarily even have any nike's yield at this point. it's 1%. >> it's not a huge dividend payer, and this is a growth company. what's also interesting to note about that point is the s&p, which is a market cap weighted index, holds consumer discretionary higher than industrials at 12.5% to 10%. a lot of people say the s&p is actually more reflective of the economy. either way, remember, when nike joined the dow, what was it -- >> two and a half years ago. there was skepticism why nike. it's been the strongest performer right now. >> just not today. it's -- >> and that's often what happens with the final few trading days of the year. >> i'll give a little known

secret away. she's more likely to wear nikes than high heels. >> only for you because you suicide me to wear nikes for my nike report. i wouldn't do that for anyone else because i'm too short. >> very fetching with the outfit there today. >> i'll tweet it. >> walking the walk. 40 minutes left in the trading session here. the dow is down a whopping ten points right now. >> shares of chipolte and mcdonald's have been going in opposite directions, meantime, this year. is this more evidence that vowel stocks may outperform growth names in 2016? that's next. >> and a big debate right now in commodities like oil and gold have been crushed this year, but dennis guardman thinks that one of them could be in for a big rally next year. which one? you'll have to stay tuned on closing bell. coming up.

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>> take a look at shares. develops cannabis derived drugs. it's up 1.5 5% after a study found its epilepsy treatment produced frequency of seizures among people who are resistant to other kinds of treatment. some hope there, phil. >> as 2015 draws to a close cnbc has been breaking out the 2016 playbook looking at ways you may be able to make money in the coming new year. this hour we're digging into the food industry. here's jane wells. >> food, glorious food. fast, fresh, funky. here are three trends to watch in the food biz in 2016. first, delicious deliveries. deliveries isn't just for pizza. all kinds of fast food restaurants are utilizing

delivery services. in 2016 it's predicted that those choices will expand faster than your burr ito belly. taco bell and starbucks use services like door dash and post mates, companies like spoon rocket are making their own fast food to deliver and if you still want to cook, you can. food business.net predicts more doorstep dinner tips for places like blue apron. second, out of africa. chefs tell the national restaurant association that they tell more african players and more ethnic condiments as america searches for the next siracha. the cost of fresh and happy. call it chipolte, 2.0. consumers are demanding more fresh locally sourced food. expect change that promote additive free and to pay more to keep that food supply free of pathogens. fast food wages are rising. that could be passed on to consumers, meeting the price of the cupcakes you just ordered for delivery could leave you a

little frosty. >> given what's happened with chipolte, we should probably see more streamlining this next year in the supply chain. buying from fewer bigger suppliers with more experience in handling food that goes against the image of wanting to source for smaller local mom and pop types. guys, i'm going to go out on a limb. i'm going to predict they will never figure out what caused either e. coli outbreak ties to chipolte. >> because it's too complicated a supply chain. is that the idea? >> i think so. i have some other suspicion that is i'm going to keep my mouth shut until we get more information. it's just very, very, very weird to me that it's just one chain. whole foods sources for local. other people do too. it's just one chain and not one employee has ever gotten ill. it's just the weirdest thing ever. >> yeah. but it does go against the spirit, as you pointed out, if they do go with larger suppliers that will go against the spirit of what they stood for all this time. it's of necessity, i guess, that they would have to do that.

>> well, you get the smaller growsers to create a consortium. something is going to have to change. >> indeed. merry christmas, jane, to you and the fam. >> same to you. >> jane wells. chipolte and mcdonald's stocks have been moving in opposite directions. the golden arches are in the green. up around 27% for the year. chipolt he conversely is down around that much where. >> mcdonald's pulled ahead that's when fears of e. coli started to seep into the chipolte shares. can both companies be winners? both stocks be winners in 2016? let's bring in bob from tellsy advisory group. what do you think? >> mcdonald's say much safer pick. they have much easier comp compares. they have moment wrum in their business, and i think customers are reacquainting themselves

with some of the strength that is mcdonald's has had in the past. breakfast, value, convenience. i think those things will resonate well. that means a lot of that goodwill is now priced the stock. it's unusual to see this much outperformance from a name like mcdonald's. do you think it can persist? >> you know, that's a fair question. to be fair, it's trading at a ten-year high on its valuation metrics. you know, in that regard, you know, if it moves higher, which i think there's that chance, there's certainly the opportunity. it's got to be better than expected results. based on what we saw in the third quarter recently, that wouldn't surprise me. >> clearly chipolte was a company that could do no wrong. it was a momentum play. all of that is gone. a more mature stock right now.

what do you think? >> that's fair. listen, jane previously comment and wouldn't say i think she's probably a fan of csi like i am, and the fact that chipolte has had some of the outbreaks which have occurred in ones and twos really leaves me scratching my head just exactly what's going on there. >> why? can we just spend a moment on this? what are people thinking is happening? is this a short seller that's trying to drive down the stock it? is it somebody with an agenda against chipolte? what do you specifically getting at? >> you know, it's easy to kind of look at the most successful brand in the industry as far as growth, as far as development goes. it has literally been the bellweather winner for the last decade, and i think in many ways it's easy to take pot shots at the king of the hill and ultimately find reasons that, you know, it may not be so successful in the future. >> yeah. >> by the way, we are just speculating and nobody has

confirmed anything. in your mind you have to go there at some point. how good a stock can it be in 2016 before we let you go? >> you know, to be fair, it really depends. if we continue to see these outbreaks pop up, the risk is that, you know, it very well may not perform. we have a very aggressive call in calling this an outperform rated stock, but to be fair, the street numbers have to come down, i believe, before ultimately this stock can begin to move higher. >> all right. bob, thank you very much. bob darington from tellsy advisory group. we're just two minutes away from a tradition here at the new york stock exchange the day before a three-day weekend. it will happen apparently. they're getting warmed up for that right now. >> 333, 333. a few hours early for the early close. >> gold price is settling right now. bertha coombs with another tradition. the settling of gold. >> the settling of gold. right on time at 12:30 eastern.

we've got gold today edging higher, but for the week gold breaks a two-week winning streak. essentially you've got the dollar a touch weaker. a lot of traders say they are seeing folks settle their accounts here. gold, though, is doing better if you start taking a look at some of the other commodities. silver is the winner for the week. up about 2%. take a look at gold versus the dollar. this has really been the story. when you look at gold down for the third straight year, it is off less than 10% here, and could still make up some ground next week if you get a bit of a santa claus rally. compared with the industrial metals, compared with energy, that's a relative outperformance. down less than 10% paired to a 30% decline for copper and for the energy patch. not a great year for gold. relatively in the commodities space, it's not a bad performer.

back to you. >> should i start the silver and gold chorus? is. >> silver lining. >> i have been driving people crazy around here. >> that's not the first reference i've heard, by the way. >> thank you very much. time now for cnbc news update. let's go straight over to sharon eperson. >> hi. here's what's happening at this hour. beijing police tightening security around a bar and shopping area popular with foreigners as embassies issue warnings for their citizens to be on guard for possible threats against westerners. the american, british, and french embassies said they have received information of possible threats on or around christmas day. shinzo abe's cabinet is responding to the rapidly aging society and a jump-start of the nation's economy. it will submit the draft to the legislative body early next year. it's been a quiet flu season so far, but the cdc says that it expects activity to pick up in

the neck few weeks. flu season tends to peak in february, so health experts say it's important to get the vaccine as soon as possible. the nba will begin running for and calling for the end to gun violence. it's time to reach billions of basketball fans during a series of marquee games on christmas day. the organization that paid for the ads was founded by former new york mayor michael bloomberg. and that's a cnbc news update that the hour. back to you, guys. >> thank you, sharon. >> sure. >> you missed the whoop whoop. it was a good one. >> they're rigled up. >> we all are. >> the dow is back in positive territory slightly. we'll see what happens here in the final half hour. the s&p up about three points right now. the nasdaq up 17. >> we all know oil had a tough year. down 30% in 2015. up next, someone who says crude, though, could still take another leg lower in the new year. she'll explain why coming up. >> two strong stocks and two

salary cuts. how the grinch is impacting bob eiger and netflix ceo reid hastings relatively speaking coming up on the closing bell.

>> we have a news alert. dominik has details. >> kelly, a couple of separate recalls. both affecting feeat chrysler produced automobiles. first of all, the company is recalling about 353,000 suvs in the u.s. the models affected are 2011 and 2012 model year jeep grand cherokees as well as dodge durango suvs that were produced before september 2nd, 2012. the recall is related to possibly some wiring in the vanity mirror that may overheat. the company says that they have seen -- they have not at least heard of any sort of injuries or over any kind of accidents related to this one. still, if you own one of those vehicles, check with your dealer. also, a second recall notice coming out and it's smaller in size here. also affecting suvs this time of model year 2015 jeep compass vehicles and patriot suvs.

this one affects about 60,000 some suvs in the u.s. for a potential repositioning of a clamp. that secures a hose that's part of the automobile. again, if you own any of those vehicles, check with your dealers. those are the two recalls being affected. the larger one, of course, being the ones affect willing jeep grand cherokees and dodge durango for model years 2011 and bill kelly, 2012. back to you, guys. >> dom, thank you very much. >> yes, thank you. there we are. less than half hour to go on the session. as we head to the close, just a reminder, is a half trading day. we're getting ready for the close right now. i'm here with my friend peter from empire executions. you famously went to cash. >> yes. >> and this year we're finishing flat. you haven't missed anything. >> i haven't missed anything. >> what are your expectations as we go to the new year? >> my expectations are that i think that you're going to see a bottom in the oil in energy, and i do think we're going to see that in the first quarter. i'm really getting inclined to start putting some money back. probably in the first quarter of next year.

you know, i don't think we're going to have a gang buster year next year. i think it's going to be a little bit more of the same. >> feds raising rates. >> do you think the dollar is going to climb? >> the dollar should climb. you know, in theory the dollar should climb. >> if they're raising rates? >> if they're raising rates. >> bearish for oil, though, theoretically. >> demand could potentially start picking up, and i think that that's one of the things that i'm looking for. i think the supply demand ratio is way out of whack. it's been out of whack for seven months now. i do think if that starts getting closer to reality and more even keel oil prices will rise. i mean, that's me in this energy play that i've been trying tore a year. >> financials, will they do well? >> financials will do very well. >> you thought that was going to happen this year too. >> we did. we did. i do think that next year you will see -- i would like to play the smaller financials. if i'm really looking at a group, maybe the smaller, you know, regional banks. >> i think regional banks will do well. it depends on what region you're in, but i like the regional

banks. >> see you later. >> kelly. >> thank you. oil moving slightly higher again today. the commodities still near the lowest level in more than a decade. have we officially seen a bottom? let's ask dennis bartman, editor and publisher of the gartman letter, along with brenda shafer, a senior fellow at the atlantic council and georgetown professor. thank you both for being here. dennis, just beginning with you here, has oil put in a bottom? >> kelly, i think that it has. if you take a look at the term structure, the manner in which the front months trade to the back months. crude is no longer bidding for storage. it's coming out of storage. it's interesting that that's happening. it tells me that as i like to say informed money is moving awaying from a bearish position. i think you probably have seen the lows, but let's not get excited.

>> is 34 probably a bottom? yes, i do think 34 is probably seeing the bottom. this is from somebody who had been manifestly and overtly bearish of crude for a long period of time. >> well, dennis, meet brenda. brenda, you think we are destined for another leg lower in oil, where he? >> yeah. at least in the long-term. if you look at the fundamentals, on the demand side we don't see any indication of demand picking up in china or any other markets, and on the supply side, we're looking into early 2016 for the return gradually of uranium oil to the market. barring any change in the fundamentals, we're going to see actually a dip down before oil starts picking up again. let's just -- >> a long way to go. >> you know, i don't know if there is ever a thing. if there really is a bottom. in fact, even today it's not really an historical low. if you look through 1985 to 2000, oil in today's dollars over between $25 to $40. we're in a sort of a normal for

oil. what was a high crisis prior, maybe that was such a high long period of oil price. but in the band of $20 to $40 isn't normal. >> what would you say to that, dennis? >> well, i want to argue that badly. i just simply think that after having seen $115 a barrel a mere two years ago, having seen the production -- the fall-off in the number of drilling rigs that we have, i am willing to bet that the worst has been seen. is it possible we could go another $5 lower? of course. but do i think that the risk-reward from $5 lower to $10 higher is about parody, yes. i think that most importantly, i think the urge to be short of crude oil should be behind you. does that mean one rushes out and becomes bullish of crude oil? no. that's a big difference. i think the end of the bear market is upon us. >> before we let you go, what about gold, though? you have turned bullish there, haven't you? >> yeah.

i think after four and a half years, actually four years and one month of a bear market, i think the worst is behind us in the gold market. gold looks better in foreign currency terms, but it's actually beginning to turn up in u.s. dollar terms. get spot gold to trade above $10.85, and the game does change. i think the worst has been seen clearly in the gold markets, and i think higher prices likely lie ahead. >> that's only $10 away from where we are now. thank you both. >> that's true. >> dennis guardman. brenda. >> merry christmas. >> merry christmas. thank you. >> keeping a close eye as the market is on crude oil. higher today. the dow, though, lower by about three points. the s&p up by two. the nasdaq up 13. >> disney and netflix have had huge years. we know that. the force is only with one of their ceos when it comes to compensation. that story coming up next. >> and later, find out which brick and mortar retailers are seeing last minute traffic because of big out of stock rates at some on-line stores.

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they have seen this stock plunge around 70% this year. >> now, two of the most high profile and successful ceos on wall street are taking a salary cut. dom anyone has details. hi, dom. >> kelly, bill, no one is feeling too bad about these ceos. however, they are taking a bit of a pay cut here. let's take you through the two media ceos. one perhaps older world wreed and one new world media. first of all, it's bob eiger who is always one of the best paid ceos in america. bo bob will get a total compensation package of under $45 million. that compares to last year when he made about $46.5 million and daul a 3% to 4% pay cut on a total basis. however, his stock is up about 13% this year, and it's still outpacing the market. if you take a look at the new media, this is reid hastings over at netflix. we're going to compare a little differently here. not apples to apples. 2015, the salary will be $900,000. it's a pay cut from the $1

million base salary he made last year. here's the interesting part. much more of reed hastings compensation in the form of options. over $19 million in the stock options is he getting as part of his 2015 pay package as opposed to the 13.7 he got in 2014. this is still a lot of money. nobody is crying for them. however, take a look at the the stock performances over the last couple of years. netflix, disney. huge outperformers. it's important to keep in context, bill, kelly, that netflix is a much, much smaller company than disney and, of course, disney shares. >> there was a cry that ceos were overpaid, and they shifted a different model, and then the market took off, and those

opings were worth gazillions of dollars, and they went back to the cash model. now we seem to be -- >> there's a high -- absolutely, guys zoosh it seems to reflect, dom, the broader market. >> i mean, the idea is that there's a balance trying to balance shareholder interest and you don't want to align the ceo's interest with the shareholder. you can make an argument that a little of both is good. >> thanks. >> david is here and he says, investors need to pay attention to the six cs in the new year. didn't you? did you know that? he knows that. he will tell us what they are coming back. sure, tv has evolved over the years.

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they delinked from the dollar. when the dollar was rising, china went up. they are connecting a basket of several currencies. it has not been disclosed yet. i think china's weakness, it will be above seven in my humble opinion by year end next year. you are going to see them depreciate their currency. they also are running a 4% deficit, which is the largest in 15 years, to try to stimulate the economy. you have seen -- >> isn't that pretty inflationary? >> well, they are spending it on -- a lot on military. i hope that that's not too inflationary. they need inflation, as you know. producer prices year over year are down 5.9%. they dropped for 45 months in a row. china is a big deflationary -- >> as they try to transition into a more consumer economy. >> money has been leaving.

3.4 trillion is the foreign exchange reserve. you want to watch the reserves. you want to watch the currency policy. they will allow that to weaken. to go along with the fiscal stimulus they are giving and a little bit of monetary stimulus. that's one of the key things to keep one's eye on in 2000 -- the consumer in the united states is the sixth c. retail sales have been lackluster. >> how are you doing shopping, online, in stores? >> i sent my son-in-law out today. they have lost my order. everybody is coming to my home tonight. i'm going to make christmas eve dinner. make means assemble. i want the men to know that make dinner means assemble dinner. we found the order. >> thank goodness. there will be happiness. merry christmas. >> merry christmas. >> see you next year. a closing down doun fnext.

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2.5%. crude oil, did it bottom? who knows. we made a big comeback. is that right, 9%? >> this week. >> and then the other direction went the -- >> down went the volatility. down 15. >> 24% decline on the volatility this week. >> the most beaten up sector is small cap stocks, transports and energy and materials. the bad news is we may have front run the santa claus rally a little here. the s&p is up 3%. i'm not arguing with any of it right now. it's the right time to pick at these, beating up sectors. the problem is to make an argument you want to own those value stocks now, well into 2016, a lot of things have to go right including crude oil, global economy, the fed has to say very, very not agrease receive in interest rates. a lot of these have to go right for the stocks to work. it's not a slam dunk even with

the prices down 40%. >> merry christmas. >> merry christmas to you. >> another good year for us. >> absolutely. >> the salvation army ringing the closing bell. here at the big board it's gary bonds. merry christmas. thank you. welcome to the closing bell on this christmas eve. here is how we're finishing. the dow going out with a decline. we got red and green up there for everybody. decline of 52 points. by far the under performer today. nike was a reason why it did a stock slit. s&p down. nasdaq stayed in the green, up 2.5 points. dennis burman is here. sarah isen is here.

right now, i think we're going to listen to gary u.s. bonds regaling us all at the stock exchange on this christmas eve. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ >> that's gary u.s. bonds. we will try to carry on above this concert. see what you get? >> it's fitting that the stock exchange has been turned into a karaoke parlor. >> what do you think? >> it's lovely. i love -- everybody is at work today, even though volumes are low. the market closes early. it's decorative and festive. we heard singing. where is your cheer? >> they are working hard. i like it. >> maybe kevin can break in here and give us a couple of his thoughts on the action we saw today. >> it's certainly a mixed day. merry christmas. thank you for everything you do all year long. this has been a mixed year. we haven't had very much movement in terms of the overall

averages. the economy, however, here tips to do relatively well. not so much overseas. as we look back on the year, the last six months or so, and we look at that mixed performance, what do we see moving into 2016? we expect to see positive returns in equities. we would like to see a pick up in some of the data we have gone through a relatively significant grind in terms of global growth. maybe that picks up a little bit into the first part of next year. if so, 2016 may indeed turn out to be a better year in terms of the returns that we saw in the equity marks than we did in 2015. that's yet to be seen. >> a lot of people -- a lot of your colleagues are more bearish. as you have been pointing out, and many -- there's a not a lot of optimistic stock market projections. even the equity analysts, everything seems to be moderate views for next year. >> pretty blah. if you look at 2015, it's almost directly flat, the major

indexes. after the change in the swiss currency, various central bank actions -- after all that, it's back where we started. >> is that a sign of strength, given -- a lot has happened. a lot has confronted the global economy. >> it's a sign of treading water. the economies around the world, be it china, relative to its own strength, europe, u.s., we're all treading water. we have been for now going on five, six, seven years. the question is what will reignite it? it's going to take a change of political leadership to get the investment confidence going. i don't think that's the answer. whether it's hillary clinton or any of the republican field, i just don't see that going into 2016. i would share a flat view for 2016. >> dennis, yes, the s&p was flat. but that masks a lot of action that happened underneath. for instance, consumer discretion ari stocks are finishing up 9%. energy stocks down 21%. small caps, the russell 2000

down 5.5% for the year. the dow is down, the nasdaq is higher. there were some pockets, some stories, some individual stock and sector moves which reflected the lumpiness we felt in the economic recovery and the fact that central banks have been surprising all over the globe. the dollar strengthened 8.5% this year. there were stories that led to that flat market underneath. >> stories. >> you could have made or lost a lot of money. >> energy will be the story in 2016, especially in the credit markets. >> i would add the mega mergers. the fact that we saw blockbuster transformative deals. what that means for the cycle into next year and hedge funds did so poorly. all of these factors at work. there were a lot of winners and losers. >> if i may, my thesis of a blah economy is indicative in the mega mergers, whether

anheuser-busch and miller -- >> do you think that that continues? do you see some catalyst here for the economy to significantly pick up or something else here? >> yeah. i think that you have to look broadly. i agree that returns from here are going to be lower than a few years ago. multiples are higher. growth is low. but you still have to put money out somewhere. if you go to europe, you look at negative-year-oldyields, you lo germany and france, below 1%. forget japan to get a yield. where are you going to go? the little interest rate increase we had by the fed that's nice, but it's not going to get the job done. you are really back to deciding where to put money out. our view has been that the united states has been the best play to be. but now that we look at emerging markets, high yield, spread widening, all of those things at some point create opportunity. all we want to do is acknowledge

the value there is much better heading into 2016 than it was in 2015. there are opportunities out there. >> just to follow on that, kevin, this year was marked by big moves in commodities. the collapse in the price of oil. and currencies, as you referenced the central banks. expect 2016 to be dictated by those moves. >> yeah. i don't know. but ultimately, the currencies are a tough place to trade and make money for us particularly as fundamental investors. i do think -- >> for anyone. >> yeah. i think that ultimately, those currencies eventually they all kind of wash in the long run. i would say that in the near term, the dollar and the euro moving closer to parody is right. the improvement in the dollar versus our trading partners, that was probably about right also. but it also means that your forward returns by going long the dollar short those currencies is probably not as much as it has been in the past.

>> let's take a pause here. as we start to look at 2016, january is known as the second worst performing month of the year. will history repeat itself? let's get to dominick chu who has a look at the numbers. >> here is what we got. according to our data partners, we looked at the last ten januarys. more recent history about where there has been stock market performance out performance and january may give some people a moment of pause to speak to dennis' point about a middling stock market. january over the last ten occurrences for the s&p 500 has posted an average 1% loss. average over the last ten occurrences. it has been positive 50% of the time. again, it's the second worst month. april is the best out there. that's the way we benchmark it. april is good for some reason. januarys tend to be worse. you were talking about some of the out performance or under performance of certain sectors

in the marketplace. i noted consumer discretionary versus energy. over last ten januarys, healthcare as a sector has been up eight of the last ten times in an average return north of 1%. the best performing one of history. energy stocks, they are positive four out of the last ten times. average return is actually negative. that's an outperform foutperfo. this side financials. the average return is down 2.5%. telecom stocks down 3.5%. they are only positive 30% of the time. some of the sectors to keep an eye on. we are going to want to watch the stories develop. to sarah's point, it's interesting with consumer d compression ari, out performers were amazons and netflix. on the energy side, all those smaller cap exploration and production companies didn't do all that great.

refiners did. there's going to be a lot of story lines that play out. in terms of industry groups and sectors. you can expect to see that happen next year as well. >> exactly. thank you. that's a big question is what kind of barometer will january be? for the rest of the year. >> don't you have the january affect? isn't that positive? you sell -- >> there's the super bowl indicator. all sorts of things. i don't know how much of those hold. >> as he said, it's a 50/50s toup tos to tossup in january. >> i think what the fed did and fcb. the question i was going to ask, fundamentals? what do fundmentals have to do with anything? we are a central bank -- >> i disagree. if you go back and take a broader perspective and you are

an equity investor, that's the way you think about it, and you look at the returns and stocks and compare it to fundamentals like earnings where the overall economy and you take a big perspective, it says the opposite. it's really the economy and earnings that drive performance in stock prices. interest rates have bounced all over of the place. for my dollar, i would rather see an improving economy with higher interest rates. i think it's a better place to be than to be seeing the opposite. for our dollar, i would like to see things begin to come back. as far as all of the indicators, the january affect, football, all of those things, i wouldn't put too much credit in any of that. once everybody knows that information, it's sort of washed out of the market. interesting statistics, but wouldn't bet on it. >> exactly. >> thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> if you are waiting until last minute you may be out of luck when looking for hot items online. are shoppers rushing to brick

and mortar stores? we will head to a new york mall to find out.

♪ i am not going to get sick of that. online shopping is surging. some items are hard to get with a click. shopperingopting to go to the mall. >> you show, shoppers here have just under six hours to go to finish up all their holiday shopping. the doors here close at 7:00. so far today, traffic has been steady throughout the morning with some stores like pandora seeing long lines. of course, every year there's a hot gift. that means every year there are people who can't find those hot gifts. even if they start shopping early and shop online. adobe, which monitors 80% of online transactions from the top 100 u.s. retailers says online out of stock rates are 10% to 15% higher this year than last. reflecting the move by many

online retailers to offer discounts early on. among the hard to get gifts this year, star wars toys, and pie in the face game. we spoke to one couple who was able to spot the trends early on and cash in. >> we bought everything early. i know one of the big toys was pie face. we got it. we had the opportunity to sell it on ebay for -- and make a little profit on it. >> of course, not being able to find gifts online sending many shoppers to the stores. heavier than usual traffic last saturday, which is super saturday, at stores like target, kohl's, jcpenney and macys. online inventory looks like but not here at this store. that's because the company's ceo was very adamant about keeping inventory full because last year the inventory was picked over.

he felt that led to lost sales. he didn't want this to happen this year. back to you. >> two tough choices for a lot of these guys. merry christmas to you. for more on who is winning the online shopping wars, let's bring in liz dunn. along with dorothy lakner. welcome to you both. liz, what mary was alluding to, you either have enough inventory or not enough. if you have too much, you have to discount. how do you see this playing out this particular holiday season? >> i think there are few hot items. those hot items have obviously sold out. so then it's people are left scrambling for things that they don't really want. looking to discounts to be the motivator. >> i wonder -- dorothy, is the point here that in the past it has been the stores that have suffered from shortages. we all think of the famous movies that have been made about this very phenomenon. now is it the case that popular

online destinations are selling out their inventory? >> i think that's -- that could be the case. obviously, stores have had lower traffic. they tried to keep inventory tight. last year there was excess inventory into this year. i think this year most retailers have really reigned in the inventory trying to keep it as tight as possible in order to sell more at a better price that's a lesser discount. >> all stripes, people are trying to run leaner? >> yes. >> dorothy, i have a question for you. the performance of some of the retail stocks, be it sears, walmart have been terrible. macy's is almost down 50% for the year. what is going on? is it as bad as the market says for these physical retailers? >> i don't cover macy's per se. i pay attention to what goes on in the big retailer like that. they had slower sales than expected in the last quarter.

they made a decision apparently to not discount right away, which would have been the usual tactic. discount, get the inventory clean coming into holiday, fresh goods. they didn't do that. they said the weather is warm. it's going to get cold. guess what? it hasn't. i think that's part of the problem that they have run into. >> it really does feel like 2015 was a terrible year for department stores, whether it was the traffic or the cold weather. what's going to happen in 2016? are any of them coming up with good ideas to turn it around? >> you know, kohl's looks better than it has in the past. they are chasing categories that aren't traditional. you see them play out electronics, "star wars," fitbit. they are trying to hop on the hot trends. it's just really difficult for all of the retailers. to the point about macy's, they're try to walk the fine line. how do we make money but play in this online arena?

there are multiple pressures. >> what about gap which has had its own issues? the last couple weeks, more customers are venting that they are not getting the purchases they said would be delivered by now. >> it came to light online that there was an article saying that there were multiple customers that had not received their products, even if they bought them on november 30th. they are still waiting for those items to show up. often, it's showing they are going to ship after christmas. it's a big black eye. i think consumers aren't going to accept this. once they realize that a retailer has made this mistake, they become unreliable and they move on. >> exactly. >> looking at the bigger picture, do you think we will truly have these names around five years from now? some will be there. but it seems that the consumer behavior is just radically changing whether any of these -- whether all of the companies will even survive. would you agree or not? >> over the last two years, we have seen a record number of bankruptcies. there will be shakeout.

big names i think will be around. the balance sheets are healthy. they will be around in a different permiation. they might be smaller than they are now. >> on that note, who is your one clear winner or loser for this season? >> for this season, clear winner, american eagle. another clear winner, l. brands with victoria secret. they are doing well. great experience. losers, certainly -- i have to say even though i like the name longer-term, gap. they have had product problems this year. that was not going to change until the spring of next year. this season is really about getting those inventories down and coming out clean. >> discounts. >> or to get the holidays right. maybe will turn out for those. thank you both.

appreciate you being here. >> gopro is one of this year's most beaten down stocks, down more than 70%. could it be the turnaround play for the new year? that's coming up. an investor choosing lyft over uber. those details next.

welcome back. lyft getting a boost from a high-profile foreign investor. >> that's right. the prince of saudi is hitching

a ride with lyft. he led a group of investors that bought 5.3% for $274.7 million as it looks to raise $1 billion. they own more than 5% of twitter. earlier this year, lyft landed another big name investor in carl icahn. last week, the $1 billion raise could value lyft at up to $5.75 billion. they declined to comment on the reports. it uber moving forward with an attempt to halt its case over the employment status of its drivers. drivers suing to be considered employees, not independent contractors as they are today. earlier a judge granted uber a temporary stay or halt in the case while a side issue is hammered out. the attorney for the drivers suing uber told me this was a victory for the plaintiffs as uber wanted to get the trial taken off the calendar all

together. the judge denied that request. uber now plans to ask the appeals court for a halting of all proceedings in the case. the trial is set for june of 2016. lyft faces a similar suit. back over to you. >> that's exactly what i was going to ask. to the extent that these issues -- if i'm uber and the bigger issue is legal, i'm not sure that makes the case for lyft. as that one goes, so goes the entire space. >> absolutely. i would remind viewers that just about two week ago, the judge certified a larger group than was originally expected in this class. basically, uber thought this was going to impact 15,000 or so of its drivers in california. now they say it could stand to impact an additional 100,000, which is a huge number. this lyft kwas is going to be closely case. but they are early on in the case. they haven't had the class certification hearing. you would imagine that if uber got certified as a class and the drivers won that portion of that part of the case, the same thing

might happen with lifyft. >> you mentioned a little over $5 billion reportedly for lyft. uber is at what $62.5 billion? >> absolutely. >> how far ahead is uber? are they going to stay private forever? >> every time you read about them raising more money, that's a great point. you hear about them continuing to build their war chest. they have plenty of regulators around the world, not just here in the united states, but all across the globe that they are up against. uber is larger. it's in more than 60 countries. lyft is in just 200 cities and in the early stages of beginning its international expansion. as we know and continue to hear, uber is further down the line. >> still a big -- another boost for them. thank you for now. >> thank you. >> time for a cnbc news update. >> here is what is happening and what we're looking at. fi fiat chrysler is recalling

vehicles in the u.s. to help ensu ensure vanity recall wiring may be replaced. the company says it is unaware of any related injuries or accidents. a new study finds that more traditional toys are better for developing infants' language skills than those that light up, talk or sing. reading books provided the best quality and quantity of language than even traditional toys. the idaho cafeteria worker who says she was fired for giving a student a free meal has been offered her job back after a national outcry. she gave a tray of food to a 12-year-old girl who said she didn't have enough money for the $1.70 meal. she was cited for theft. it's not clear if she will return to her job. tesla's new cars are so special, they can even dance to holiday songs. this video shows three of the new cars blinking their lights in time to the music. take a listen. ♪

that's the cnbc news update at this hour. back to you. >> you know, i'm thinking you were talking -- i used to get upset when i got a book for christmas. i want the stuffed animal. >> in my house, santa believes a couple books are -- it's always a good thing. if there's an xbox, there's a few books to go with it. >> i should be thanking everybody. thank you so much. gopro not announcing new products this season. according to one top analyst, that shouldn't keep you from being positive on the company and what's in the pipeline. a bull bear debate on one of the worst performing stocks of the year is next. today is one of the busiest travel days of the year. how warmer weather, the beijing terror threat and lower oil prices are all impacting holiday travel. closing bell is back in two. i asked my dentist if an electric toothbrush

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welcome back. here is how we finished today. red and green on wall street, appropriately enough. the dow was down 50 points.

the s&p was down three points. the nasdaq finished higher. oil prices are selt ittling. what can you tell us? >> it does feel sort of strange. oil prices settling near the highs of the session today, above $38. that is quite a big rally we have this week extending the gains we have seen over the last couple of days. we did have that much bigger than expected draw down coming from the government yesterday. overall, a lot of traders say folks are starting to settle their accounts. looking forward, they're not sure that's going to hold out, nonetheless. we are seeing pretty much across the board higher prices here. what's interesting is when you look at nat gas is the big winner. closing out above $2. we had a better than expected read on natural gas inventories. that compares to the five-year average closer to 120. it has been so warm, that's a

problem. but as folks are looking into the new year over the next couple of weeks, forecasts are looking cooler, particularly to the west of the rockies. we are seeing natural gas with a bullish move here from very, very low levels. when you look at that one-year chart, it looks pretty ugly. natural gas, if you look at it, has been down seven of the last ten years. >> yeah. really tough stretch lately. thank you. appreciate it. this week on the show we have been looking at some of the worst performing stocks of the year and asking if they have potential for a turnaround? gopro have seen a loss of more than 70% this year. here to debate it, dan ives and kevin kelly. good to see you both here. daniel, i will begin with you. why do you think gopro say buy. >> it's the most hated tech stock on the street. you have to now look at -- you look at virtual reality, that

consumer drone market, you have upgrades on hero 5. at this point a new york city cap driver knows it's a soft holiday season. there's a time that you look at the beaten down tech names, there's a core value in the patent as well as content. i view it as a candidate for apple that needs to make an acquisition. this would fit in my opinion. >> kevin, why is he wrong? >> well, one of the reasons is because there's a saturation of people that want to attach a gopro to their head and jump off a cliff. we have seen that. there's some 40,000 outlets that sell gopro. we saw nick woodman this month trying to hawk his wares. the problem is that everybody else has a camera. it's in their phone. the action junkies, who they target, action cameras have it. that goes into the addressable market of the consumer drone. if you look at people who own

drones, they already have a gopro and attach it. buzz feed when they covered the california wildfire, they covered it with a drone attached to -- with a gopro attached to it. the problem is is that they have already addressed this market. it's really hard for them to get the future growth we are looking for. >> what about that, dan? >> those are the common concerns on the street. this has been a dog this year. i think when you look out, we view it as a $5 billion to $7 billion market. we will see a lot in a few week. you look at this relative to valuation, relative to the tech ecosystem. it's one where right now, there is opportunity for them to be successful, for them to penetrate the market. at this point you look at a lot of these names in tech that are thrown out, and i do think it's going to be consolidation. this is front and center in terms of value and content.

>> it goes back to the attractiveness of buying a gopro. >> get back to that valuation. right now it's trading at 21 times consensus earnings next year. when you can go into great leadership in the nasdaq 100 which is trading 19 times earning. i would rather have faith in google, facebook, tim cook who is not trying to hawk cell phones. i would rather put leadership in my portfolio such as those companies. because they are actually focusing on the addressable market. how do you not have a product for the hottest selling season during the holidays? when you go to consumer drones, it's easier to own a gun than it is a drone. you have to register your drone. you can actually serve jail time -- it's a criminal offense if you don't register it with the federal government. the drone market is actually for enterprise and commercial. the consumer is a long way off. they are expensive. >> thank you.

thank you so much. what do you think? who won you over? >> i will go with dan. not the belief the company is doing well, but it's an m & a opportunity. >> for apple? >> no, no. my money is on a chinese manufacturer. perhaps dji, which makes drones. my guess would be -- this is just a guess is that somewhere down the line a year from now, there's a company that puts out a press release and you say, who are those guys? some obscure company that makes tens of billionless s of dollarm china. >> kevin jokes about nick going on qvc. they downgraded the stock and one reason was the fact that woodman was on qvc. saw it as a sign of desperation. >> qvc, we mean no disrespect. the new film concussion has been billed as the movie the nfl doesn't want you to see.

sony is taking steps to ensure all the players do see the film. those details ahead. millions of people heading home for christmas. live in reagan national airport for the latest. we will talk to an industry expert this holiday season.

a projected 38 million passengers, perhaps you are one of them, flying on u.s. carriers during this christmas holiday. a 3% increase over last year. hampton pierson, he is in the thick of it at reagan. you are a brave man. >> well, not really. it's 70 degrees and sunny outside. the real story though, nationwide travel delays on christmas eve, frankly, at a minimum. 600 delays, 55 cancellations. the one trouble spot, the atlanta airport dealing with weather in that area. some similar delays in new york and chicago as far as major hubs go. all in all, this mild winter weather and even lower air fares combines for a good holiday travel season for the airlines and airline passengers. >> it's warm this winter. there's not a lot of snow on the ground. not a lot of ice. the airlines are largely on

time. it's one of the best winter seasons from a holiday travel perspective than we have seen in years. oil prices are at recent lows. this is going to be a really terrific quarter and year for airlines. >> and we're finding lots of travellers in amazing spirits. frankly, the no snow, even if that is the desire on the way to grandmother's house, even met a lady who was traveling from dallas going to syracuse, new york. marveling at the idea that she will not be shoveling out this year at the holiday season. >> all right. believe me, i know a lot about that syracuse snow. thank you so much. for more on holiday travel, let's bring in ben from tampa. it's probably warmer here than there. thanks for being with us. i wanted to ask you about what one of the security alerts that went out for americans going to beijing in one of their shopping districts. security is going to be an issue

probably more so than in a while this year. is that affecting travel times and delays at all as far as you can tell? >> it is absolutely in the u.s. and outside of the u.s. in the u.s., we're going to see longer lines in general. that's despite good weather. that's a function of everybody being on higher alert. rather, for example, than the tsa opening more checkpoints, they will staff more people at single checkpoints for the purposes of swabbing passengers, doing more tests to make sure people are safe. outside the u.s., it's the same deal. high alerts and as a result expect lines to be longer than usual. >> what about the number of people traveling, how is that looking? >> flights are full. capacity is up as well. overall, it's a very busy travel season. the good news as mentioned earlier is that the weather is nice. at least cancellations aren't going to be a big factor as they would around the holidays. >> i didn't know if people would drive more or something. gasoline is so cheap. is there any kind of affect that

you can discern there? >> not much really. the thing is that air fare is down compared to last year which is tough to discern because air fare does still seem to be high. but it's down about 10% versus last year. as a result, a lot of people are flying. that's good news. >> i'm amazed at how few people do the tsa precheck and how much time it saves. how many people do that relative to how many people should be doing that? at what point does it become not valuable anymore as it continues to grow? >> not nearly enough people are doing it. for those not familiar with tsa precheck, it's an expedited security process in the u.s. where you don't have to take off your shoes when you go through security. you can leave your laptop and your liquids in your bag. it's valuable. you can sign up for $85. that's good for five years. whenever you are flying, you can go through that special line. huge savings and everybody i think should be doing it who is flying once a year. the time savings are huge. >> then it doesn't save time if everyone does it. >> hopefully, this would be

staffing more people. what they have done, which is good news, they used to randomly let people in the pre-check lines based on profiling them. now actually you need to get a membership. there are fewer people using that, which is good news. >> if you are going to that, do global entry. you get an -- i just did that. >> you know what's interesting? fuel costs are down, but the airline stocks have not done that well, or as well as you would expect. american, delta -- >> so true. >> not doing so well. i don't know if that's something he wants to opine about? >> any parting thousan inin ini >> we have gone from the mergers. and i think we will see more profitability over the next couple of years now that they have new planes and much more modern fleets. >> thank you for joining us. good to see you. >> thank you very much. happy holidays. >> happy holidays. the san diego chargers and

oakland raiders square off tonight. the big nfl story may be at the box office with the opening of the sony film concussion. up next, how the nfl is using the data to combat head trauma. (politely) wait, wait, wait! you can't put it in like that,

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welcome back. former nfl commissioner paul tag lee boo called it-- one public that's advancing the league's procedures. >> that's right. in the past few years we have seen big skried strides in thes and collection of data in the nfl. one reason is the partnership between a league and a medical firm. it's known as a clinical research organization. major drug companies contract with it to do statistical analysis on best ways to make the drugs work. it still shows it's an issue. every year we see a lot of concussions. this year alone, we have seen more than 150 concussions so far in the season. the data helped the nfl change the game. they have added 40 rule chains designed to protect players.

they require more health experts present at the game. it's the number one business in the sports sector with over $12 billion in revenue. the league said they weren't involved in the movie coming out tomorrow. they welcome the dialogue on the important issue. this week, we saw a report that the league backed out of a boston university study for concussion research because that professor had been critical of the league before. the nfl challenged that report saying it was their choice to fund other projects. finally, sony pictures, who is producing the movie, they are offering every nfl player and one guest free admission. only at scinemark players. if they all see it and spend $15, the most this would cost sony is $50,000. >> they might buy a lot of popcorn. they are paying for that. >> big eaters. i don't know if food is free. >> so why -- i don't understand the point of giving nfl players a free ticket other than that

it's a prg gambit. >> that's it. they need to understand they are the ones most affected. i would say anybody who plays high school football, college football, all of them should get a free ticket. >> people who for whom going to the movies is much more -- >> $20, $30 matter more to them. this is a sony pr stunt. >> is the movie good? >> i haven't seen it yet. >> the reviews any good? >> the reviews -- i mean, a lot of it is politically charges. do you want to believe this? it's based on a gq article about five years ago. they go into the story of the scientist and some of the back door behavior. >> "the wall street journal's" review was small. it was somebody -- the bottom of the page just pretty briefly covered it. it didn't really add or say much about it. i'm sure you saw it.

>> it must be maybe where your politics lie. that's beside the point. it should be where the science takes you. >> i think will smith is getting the best reviews for his performance. he's getting nominated. >> the science would say you don't want to get your head bashed in. the definition of a concussion has widened in the last 30 years. what was a count-- there were t that weren't concussions that get called concussions now. some of the data from pbs who is tracking it versus what the nfl says, those numbers don't match up a lot of it is self-reported or do you have -- are you seeing star s stars? >> i wonder whether the public discourse on this will change. by bringing attention to it. this is terrible to say and think, god forbid something bad will have to happen as a result of all of these injuries and concussions to really raise public awareness and bring change. >> the problem it's not an immediate affect. it's not like someone will die instantly. it will happen 20 years later. it's like smoking. it took generations for smoking

to kind of work its way out. >> the analogy is the last one the nfl wants to hear, but it's that kind of issue in the first place that spurred the article where you had the doctor -- it was a nigerian doctor in the u.s. who had looked at x-ray scans of a brain of a football player after he was deceased and found troubling stuff. i wonder whether this is enough, this particular one, to be that moment. >> part of the study is to try to figure out this information before people die. cte, you don't know about it until after they are dead. that's what some of the funding is going for to figure it out in advance. >> we hope all the young football players see the movie. 60 years, that's long the norad has been tracking santa's christmas journey around the world. we will talk to a captain to get saint nick's whereabouts on this christmas eve next.

♪ santa claus is just hours away from arriving in north america. norad is tracking him as it has been for 60 years now. captain scott miller is in charge of the operation. he joins us in colorado springs,

colorado. where is santa this moment? >> right this moment, santa is off of east coast of africa headed towards madagascar. >> where is his trajectory taking him if he is headed around to this neck of the woods? >> so we have been tracking santa for almost eight hours since he launched today. he is working in a westerly direction in general but zipping north and south at the speed of starlight in order to hit all of the homes of all the good boys and girls throughout the world. >> we thank you for all the work you have been doing there tracking him every year, six decades running. captain scott miller. thoughts? >> drone risk is a significant problem. gopro if they could find santa,

that might help the stock. >> we were wondering what kind of tracking technology they were using. >> right. there are many different competing to pick from. in any way, christmas eve show, early close to the market, a quick recap. the dow going out with a decline of 50 points. the s&p down. the nasdaq was higher there by 2.5 points on the session. we talked about nike which was weighing on the dow. it did a stock split. we don't think that's the reason. >> we don't. some of the post earnings move with lower for nike. there was concern about the margin forecast coming down a bit. it has been a big winner for the year. profit taking and window dressing. the stock is up 30%. analysts are bullish on this name. it's going to have to perform. it has a high valuation. >> it's a light volume week, second lightest behind thanksgiving. a couple more trading sessions next week. then 2016. for now, that does it for all of us.

merry christmas, everybody. happy new year. i won't see you until then. ♪ >> tonight, on the profit, i go inside athans motors, a used car dealership started by a guy with no car experience. >> i don't have cars, but i have a good business. >> but you don't have cars! that the business! >> no, i'm done arguing with you. >> he spent so much money building the most opulent dealership i have ever seen that now he can't afford to buy cars or pay bills. if i can't stop the wasteful spending... what'd you spend on these walls? >> $100,000. >> wow. and sell some cars... >> i won't sell it. that car's worth 30 all day. >> athans motors will be out of business. my name is marcus lemonis. i fix failing businesses. this month you lost $150,000. i make tough decisions... you're not gonna come behind every single person and change the deal. >> i didn't agree to this [bleep]. >> and i back them up with my own cash.