$10 million and i come back and say i need $50 million and then me saying that makes me a bad bank. >> no long-term damage done. have a great day. >> thanks for watching. >> shop earlier, america. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm sara eisen in today for kelly evans here at the new york chock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. oil the big story today, it's taking its toll on saudi arabia's budget deficit as well, commodities selling off after four days of gains. we are going to dig deeper into the move coming up. >> take a look at natural gas. speaking of energy, surging today on more typical weather for this time of year. forecasts for the next few weeks, colder temperatures. we've got a meteorologist to tell us whether more wild weather is ahead and specifically what the impact is going to be on the energy

market. >> i knew the warm weather wouldn't last forever. >> no, winter is finally here. >> winter is coming as they say. amazon, by the way, releasing actually some rare numbers this morning saying it was a record setting holiday for the e-commerce jiebt. we will look at whether there are any other retail winners this holiday season. >> and an ugly drop for one biotech firm, chimerix, the stock down 81%. that story is coming up on the "closing bell." >> never good when the change is larger than the price of the company there. >> not good. let's start with oil, though, snapping that winning streak as saudi arabia's budget deficit surges. jackie deangelis is live at the nymex with more on that. >> a more than 3% slide in the wti to finish at $36.81. brent finishing under wti, just showing how much it's turned out of favor in terms of this market right now. you mentioned a key point, saudi

arabia out with its 2015 budget numbers, this did not help the selling that we saw today. a near deficit of almost $100 billion showing this country, this kingdom getting squeezed by low oil prices. also we know revenues came in less than expected and spending was higher than expected. the last time saudi arabia saw a surplus was in 2013. it gets nearly 80% of its revenues from oil. this has been very critical. this line in the sand that they've drawn to maintain market share and weather the storm of low oil prices, it is starting to hit where it hurts. i'm not necessarily sure that will spur some action from saudi arabia, but certainly it's becoming a problem. the last few days that we have seen gains in oil prices traders were not surprised by it. they said going into christmas, going into a three-day weekend that's the kind of thing that typically happens, then this selling happened when the reality comes back to the marketplace. volumes are expected to be light this week, again, we have another three-day weekend coming up, but looking at 2016 the consensus right now is we could

touch those lows we saw not long ago, guys. >> so that 9.7% surge that we saw in the price of oil last week, jackie, the word from the floor it sounds like is that was just sort of a bounce on an oversold price of oil. >> yea, and that's what happens. when prices go down that fast you have people who are day trading, getting in for a quick browns to the upside but there was nothing behind that momentum to hold it up and that's what we've seen every time we have had a recent rally. so right now is a time to be a little cautious when it comes to oil prices and i would say this, it always comes back to fundamentals, you know, barring some sort of geopolitical event, but fundamentals haven't changed. >> no, they have not. see if you can name an oil producer who is not suffering right now as a result of lower oil, even the mighty saudi arabia. >> exactly. >> they are having to borrow to keep their budget going there. it's incredible. >> and the ruble at the lowest point of the year, russia a hurting, canada is hurting. ripple effects around the globe.

>> who had 3:32 would be the first time sara mentions -- >> much more ahead. first we have to talk about the shipper fedex taking some heat after failing to deliver packages in time for christmas. morgan brennan is at a fedex facility in new york city. what's been the fallout here, morgan? >> that's a good question. fedex not delivering all of those packages -- all of its packages in time for christmas morning, a severe storms in the south near its main express sorting hub in memphis were partly to blame but also in the week leading up to christmas it handled volume that far exceeded all previous records including an unprecedented surge of last minute e-commerce shipments. fedex is not disclosing how many shipments were delayed for the holiday but the company did add operations on christmas day, something it had not been planning previously to do, also extra operations on saturday as well. ups for its part seems to have done a bit better, the company saying that it got the majority of its planned packages

delivered by 8:00 p.m. on thursday, also that it didn't have to send workers out to make any kind of deliveries or run any kind of operations on christmas day. that is a potential win for ups after two rocky holiday seasons, but a big focus for analysts and investors now is going to be cost. how much -- finding out how much these shipping companies actually spent, particularly fedex with those expanded operations, to get packages to doorsteps in the last couple of weeks. the other thing i will note is that the second part of peak shipping season is getting way under way, that's e-commerce returns and all those gift cards that are now being spent. ups alone expects to deliver 5 million returns between now and next wednesday, that represents a 15% increase in that part of its business over last year. guys, back to you. >> it's no wonder, then, that jeff bay zeros wants to do it himself in some cases in terms of delivery. for a company that is so obsessed with customer service, when you are beholden to the

last mile to the deliverer who is not under your employ, this is what can happen, that's why he's talking about leasing jets to do this himself, right? >> certainly that's one part of the equation, i think the other part and something that analysts have been telling me all day today is that a company like amazon -- and i'm not saying that this actually happened with this company this time around, but some of these retailers and e-tailers saw some tremendous surge in e-commerce demands this season even more than the forecast that they originally gave to the shipping companies who planned their peak seasons around those forecasts. so there's two sides to it. either way it looks like big vom lums, a lot of people took to the internet to do their shopping this season. >> what about the u.s. postal service, are they capturing any of this business? it feels like yesterday when we were reporting on their dwindling cash pile they were going to be bankrupt at any moment. has this helped? >> the u.s. postal service last week coming into christmas this was their most recent numbers, they haven't issued new ones

yet, but they said that their package volumes so far for the peak season were up 15%. their earlier forecast for the season was 10.5%. so they've been seeing volume surge as well. keep in mind the postal service particularly for last mile deliveries has taken on more and more amazon business specifically, including those sunday deliveries in the last couple years. >> that will help. morgan, thank you very much. >> thanks, morgan. >> for the update on the shippers. the ceo of ups weighs in on all of this, the busy holiday season a first on cnbc interview tomorrow, it's happening during the 9:00 a.m. eastern hour. let's get to our "closing bell" exchange. we have price headily with us today from big friends.com, kenny polcari from o'neal securities is enjoining leftovers from his seven fish feast that he made at christmas and rick santelli checks in for us from chicago as well. so, kenny p., what do you do with this week? this is the week we typically get -- >> what do you do with the

leftovers. >> first of all, there were no leftovers, right, they cleared me out of everything. >> i can imagine. >> second of all, what do you do on a week like this? it's four days to the end of the year, people were panicking, i'm quite surprised with oil being down what it was, there was all this talk this morning the market is going to crash. look, the market is holding in well considering that move in oil. i think you have to take a deep breath, you have to wait it out until next year. we kind of -- nothing is going to change between today and friday of this week or even tuesday of next week. so, therefore, i think the -- i think the story remains the same, i think there are some concerns, but overall i think the market is okay and i think there's starting to be a little bit of a disconnect between where oil goes and the broader market goes. >> it sounds like you might agree with that is correct you say you are a long-term bull on u.s. stocks, you expect the dow to go back up to 20,000 next year. does it need to break this old pattern with oil in order to do that? >> sara, i think, you know, like

i said, the low oil prices are actually a good thing for the u.s. economy. yes, it's dragging down that energy stock sector for the averages, but this pattern for the end of 2015 has been spot on what we saw in 2011, august drop, big october rally and then sideways all the way to the last day of the year and then the market blasted off at the start of 2012 to the upside. i'm expecting a similar type of an upside move as we start off 2016. obviously earnings will be the driver and i think it's a jekyll and hyde market. i think we go up big, dow 20,000 the first half of 2016, i think as we have in past lame duck presidential election periods the second half of 2016 i'm expecting a fairly substantial decline, it's that uncertainty and perhaps the fed going too far on rate hikes will be a couple of negative catalysts in the second half of the year. >> rick, what are you wachlg as we go into the end of the year? is energy the straw string to drink, that the major catalyst or is there something else going

on here? >> i think energy is important but we need to view energy in a more macro picture. if manufacturing wasn't looking as though it's going into a recession, let's say manufacturing was on the upswing, a lot of these input costs, you know, whether you use plastic, pvc, you know, a lot of petro-based areas where the inflow costs will be down, general energy usage of manufacturing in general, but we are not seeing some of those benefits because manufacturing is deteriorating. the economy is kind of flat right now. so i think there is a whole another side to the energy story, but we are just not in the type of economy that is showcasing some of those positives. in terms of interest rates, it's hard to garner any serious conclusions with the type of activity we've seen. we did have and i havy two-year note auction, the curve did flatten a bit meaning long rates were dipping a little bit while the short rates were holding firm, but all things considered the big mystery for 2016 is

going to be how manufacturing does, how the input in the economies affect demand in things like oil showcase the benefits, and on the dollar "wall street journal" has a great article about there's so many foreign components to different imports and exports that a weaker dollar or a stronger dollar, i should say, isn't necessarily as bad for multi-nationals as many of us have thought in the past because it's just a different world on the -- you know, the way you package some of these components and export them. >> quickly, rick, it sounds like the consensus forecast for next year is higher treasury yields and stronger u.s. dollar. do you buy that? >> well, i think that the dollar's strength might be a bit overplayed because i think other central banks will run into quantitative easing problems in terms of size and in terms of the economy in general i think that interest rates on the long end may pay more attention to weaker growth, others may say it's inflation or lack of inflation, but you are not going to see upward pricing until you

see better growth. i think there are basically glued at the hip these days. >> kenny, there are a lot of people who are not very high on this market for 2016. you know, after this flat year we have had in 2015. lots of headwinds they want to identify as slowing growth in earnings, the higher dollar, you know, lower oil, all those things. >> right. >> piling on the stock market. >> i hear you, but i think the oil -- i think the dollar move is already happening in anticipation of what the fed has done. i don't necessarily see the dollar taking off unless we get so many more interest rate increases next year which i don't think we're getting, i think we're getting one, maybe two, and i think it's happening before the summer because then you get close to the presidential election and does the fed want to be raising rates and showing support for one party or the other. i think the second half of the year we won't get any movement of rates. if it happens at all it will be the first half of the year. i think the market and u.s. economy, albeit slow is starting

to make a recovery. i agree with the other guest, i think you will see a better year next year. >> price, you have bullish positions on apple, on pepsico and on mcdonald's. i see the theme here is big multi-national companies, you are not scared of investing in u.s. companies that have exposure abroad. what else are you thinking with these three? >> just like you're talking about with the dollar, i mean, the dollar moved up, is already factored in. look at mcdonald's you can breaking out the new highs, 80% of their profits overseas, that's my favorite dow stock in 2016, i think it's up 20% by the end of the year, apple is $20 billion in cash plus, very safe consistent ways to ride out that kind of jekyll and hyde volatility and pepsi same idea, these stocks have been sideways for a year plus and i think that's healthy that we have gone sideways amidst a lot of head wind, i think the market is watching its breath getting ready for that next big boom up in the first half, the second half i think all bets are off, i

think it its rougher whether the fed goes further or not. >> thank you. if we don't see you later happy new year. >> happy new year. >> heading to the close we have 47 minutes left in the trading session, the dow was down about 100 points on the open this morning, it's come back right now we are down just 35. >> deadly tornadoes, floods and delivered conditions heading across the country. find out what mother nature has in store next. plus we will also speak with an analyst who talks about the potential on your investments from all of this crazy weather. >> plus amazon breaking records during the holiday shopping season. courtney reagan has that story coming up on "closing bell." stay tuned.

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to speed up your car insurance search. here's the latest. problem is, we haven't figured out how to reverse it. for now, just log on to compare.com... plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest and hit purchase. now...if you'll excuse me, i'm late for an important function. compare.com. saving humanity from high insurance rates. stocks trading lower today off the lows, though. the dow down 37 points right now, oil has been moving lower today, the price of wti still trading slightly above brent crude right now, it's down 3.4% and it's taking the major oil producers with it. chevron, exxonmobil and bp all trading down about a percent today. >> certainly mother nature has

wreaked havoc in certain parts of the country, let's send it over to charles hatlock who is in garland, texas, for more. >> reporter: i'm at the independence apartment complex here in the southern part of garland, texas, where the tornado came through, an ef-4 tornado with winds between 170 and 180 miles an hour. now, take a look at some of the destruction here. these apartments were totally demolished here. they will have to be torn down. this area was -- the scene was on saturday night when the storm came through. it was dark, it was nighttime, there were sirens going off, so a lot of the people were able to get out. only about 15 people were injured here. there were no deaths at these apartment complex, but it's right on i-30 and i-30 is where most of the deaths occurred. all but three of the deaths were

along the interstate. the storm came through in the middle of the night, swept cars off the freeway, smashed them on to an underpass below and that's where the deaths occurred. there were two deaths at a feed store/gas station about eight miles from here and sadly an infant, only two or three days old, also perished when her parents' mobile home was blown away in the town of blue ridge. right now the weather is the best it's been since saturday, at least it's not range here, that has been a big problem as people try to get back and collect their belongings here. it is cold, though, it's in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s. so it's going to be a long, slow pick up pace here in the town of garland. back to you guys. >> all right. you got it. nbc's charles hadlock in garland, texas. we are starting to see natural gas continue its rebound as more typical cold weather makes its way into the forecast. it's up 32% in the last ten

days. that would be natural gas. >> yeah. after reaching a multi-year low. joining us to discuss how you can make money and how it impacts your portfolio, jacob mizel chief meteorologist. so you are an analyst and meteorologist. what's in the forecast and what does it say for natural gas now that we have had such a strong rally off of that low. >> after the mild december it's clear that january is going to make that turn colder which is why we've seen this rally the past week, week and a half. the first week, week and a half of january it will stay cold, maybe a brief mild interlude from there but then there is a threat of even colder weather for the second half of january that's showing up in the past couple of days. we think that's part of what's led to the short covering rally in natural gas prices today. >> what you're saying is it's probably not going to go back. >> nothing like christmas eve. >> we have had our warm weather for this winter. how much colder is it going to get? you say we're going to have

colder temperatures. is it normal or below normal? the last couple of winters in the northeast and upper midwest has been horrible. >> so it really depends on where you are. in the south and southeast it's actually going to be below average temperatures, we're seeing -- >> they're already seeing that. >> it's going to dip even further. the midwest and northeast are the two questions. right now it looks like we will get back down to around average, we will warm back up in a week and then we are going out two weeks that's when we see the chance of the cold air over the north pole starts to move closer toward a lot of north american metropolitan cities, the northeast and midwest could be in the midst of something potentially big. >> have see seen the peek of el nino and have we entering la anyone na. >> we have seen the peak and we are seeing signs that the decline is starting to accelerate rapidly. we do flip to a la nina that

could lead to atlantic tropical seasons. >> are we experiencing climate change or is this an anomaly. >> el nino and la nina are part of variations. it's hard to determine. we honestly don't have the science to know that right now. what we do is that these natural variations are driving a lot of what's going on and it's clear we are going to have that colder flip coming soon. >> what about ag prices last time we saw la nina in 2010 we saw 20, 30% rallies over their agriculture rallies. >> they are at low levels. the market may not be pricing in all the weather risks that exists. typically you bounce right off that into a long la nina, there is a lot of long-term risks. >> soybeans up 40%. >> my favorite commodity. yes. >> thank you, jacob. >> thank you. >> we have a weather report and

a spanish levin all in one. >> i got a spanish levin. >> less than 40 minutes to go before the closing bell. declines across the board, the dow was about 115 at one point, now it's down 38 points, s&p 500 now .3%, it was as bad as .8%. last four trading days of the year here looking at a decline. this is a make or break because the s&p is totally flat for the year. >> we are flat for the year, so is the dow. coming up a specs report on drug stock investing for the new year plus what's tanking these biotech stocks today. >> and up next amazon out with new data showing record breaking holiday sales. courtney reagan has the details. some other amazon will be the big winner of this holiday season at whose expense. we will be right back.

welcome back. we have whole foods right now. sue herrera stepping in with details. >> whole foods markets has agreed to pay $500,000 and implement new policies and procedures at its new york stores to resolve an investigation into whether or not the retailer was overcharging for some prepackaged foods at its stores

in new york, in the city particularly. the new york city department of consumer affairs announcing that settlement. it also would require whole foods to conduct quarterly in-store audits to ensure products are accurately weighed and labeled. so they will pay a $500,000 fine and implement new policies and then quarterly audits as well. the stock is down about three quarters of a percent. >> it looks like it's been under pressure all afternoon. amazon shares are rising after the online retail giant shattered a few records this holiday season again. courtney reagan joining us with the details on this amazon release. >> while the online bow home it releases metrics in clunky forms it is at least clear that amazon continues to take share. one major attraction is amazon's prime program, it offers free two day or faster shipping on millions of items, media content, photo storage and more. while they have never disclosed

the total number of prime members they have, this is now the second holiday season that amazon has released some prime metrics. the company says more than 3 million customers joined prime in the third week of december, last year it said more than 10 million new members joined over the course of the holiday season. where tension is also never discussed by the company as the first 30 days are free, afterwards it's $99 per year. who knows how many of those customers stay on. consumer intelligence research partners estimates amazon has 47 million prime users in the third quarter. now, amazon lists many, many items as best sellers from a hydro flask to a french roast coffee this holiday season, but it does single out its kindle paper white, cards against hue plant and fit bit charge offered for prime same day delivery. four of the top five products that amazon sold were its own

devices. so since november 1st according to slice, amazon's fire tablet was the top item making up 0.5% of the total saleser volume, followed by the echo, apple, pie face game and the fire tv stick rounds out the top five items. victor anthony did raise its price target on amazon shares to $797 from $727 based on what he sees as potential for rising revenue. right now you can see amazon shares at $673. back to you. >> any idea why they were as forthcoming as they were this year? >> well, i think forthcoming could actually be considered somewhat generous, bill, only because all they told us was that 3 million customers joined in the third week of december. we don't know how that compares with the third week of december last year, all we know is 10 million joined over the course of the season. we don't know how many stay on

or how many total amazon prime members are or what the retention is like when the three month free trial runs out. we know that amazon is gaining share, it's certainly something that instills a lot of fear into the heart of retailers. >> selectively forthcoming. >> for them. >> thanks, courtney. >> all right. time for that cnbc news update, back with sue herrera. >> here is what's happening at this hour. we start off with chicago mayor rahm emanuel cutting short his vacation to deal with another fatal police shooting. two people were killed this weekend while officers responded to a domestic disturbance call. this incident follows last month's release of a video which shows the fatal shooting of a black teenager in 2014. a new report says tens of millions of trees are in danger of dying from california's severe drought. researchers say the trees which are some of the planet's oldest and tallest have experienced severe canopy loss since 2011.

sascha cohen is making a big donation to help syrian refugees. cullens and his wife are giving $1 million which will be split between two charities. the money will provide aid and vaccinations for children. and people in times square getting ready for the new year by saying good riddance to bad memories of 2015. visitors are writing down their thoughts and shredding them. i bet that feels good. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you guys. >> that's a nice tradition. >> i think it's very healthy mentally. >> it probably is. >> get rid of the old, in with the new. >> thank you, sue. a little less than half an hour to go before the closing bell. we do have some pockets of green, for instance, utilities, telecom and consumer discretionary sectors in the s&p are green, many more are down, energy weighing us down, the dow is down about 35 points with a half hour to go. >> a leading trader about join

us and tell us what he's watching. and our me go tir ril has a special report on what's dragging these drug stocks lower today. when "closing bell" returns. t te trader offices. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

check out shares of fit bit, they are higher on a report that the wearable tracking device maker surged to the top of apple's free app chart in the u.s. on christmas day. last year fit bit's holiday quarter revenue rows 250% from the year before. fit bit shares are up 3%. right now they're basically flat from where they were on their opening day after the ipo. it's been a bit of a roller coaster ride. >> thanks, share rachlt let's go into the final half hour of trading for this monday. joining me now on the floor is gordon from rosenblatt securities. what do you make of this week? what do we do with this? can it be indicative of something that will happen in the beginning of the new year? >> it's hard to put much into this week. you had a he like to suppose that there will be some direction gleaned from the events, particularly maybe in the last day of trading here, but, no, because, look, what do you have right now? you have some folks saying we're down a little bit, then you say,

well, if you factor in the dividends we're up a little bit. do i see a major push one way or the other, i think we will be pretty flat right knew. >> do you watch oil the most? what's the one factor you're watching to tell you where stocks are going to go? >> it's interesting, the big change has been the price of oil. so, you know, what does that mean going into next year? i always like to look at it, nice like us have been down here a couple of moons you start to look at each year as maybe its own little story. so what will the story of 2016 be? it's going to be the price of oil. and not only just how that affects the various companies, but what about those countries, that have enjoyed the windfall and now have to find out how to balance sheets and you saw something like that from alaska as well, these are all places, provinces that now have to deviate from their normal economic planning. >> they are going to have to institute there in alaska -- >> right. >> serious, though, night tie.

>> i appreciate that, this is from the bg collection, you guys can get -- >> yes, it is. >> i appreciate t bill. >> happy new year, gordon. >> thank you. >> that's great. sara, quick, please. >> some fashion and some markets. thanks, bill. another mover we are watching a valeant pharmaceuticals dropping on news that the ceo is out on medical leave of absence right now, meg tirrell has the story. >> we had him on squawk box joining us on a big announcement they had about how they are going to replace that lost specialty pharmacy revenue from shutting down their relationship with sit adore and replacing that with walgreens. it seemed like they were getting on a path of less uncertainty. this case that mike pearson has a severe case of pneumonia, he has been hospitalized. the company not saying how long he is expected to be out, not sharing a lot of details. his family asking for privacy. but folks just a little nervous. there has been a lot of uncertainty over valeant,

recently under several government investigations, just getting over a lot of the things happening with the short sellers looking into the stock and really driving a lot of the value down there. so he will have an interim replacement made up of a committee of three executives and folks hope you will be back on the job very soon. >> you don't want to mess with pneumonia, that's for sure. comeric down 80% today on a failed drug test of some kind. is this a one-trick pony? >> it is gts lead drug, it's being tested in the prevention of infections for a certain kind of viral infection after a stem cell transplant. unfortunately the phase three failed to meet its primary end point. what folks are saying it may still work in certain viruses but those opportunities are not as large as this one looked to be. they are trying to figure out where the companies goes from here, what is the market opportunity, can it sort out

what was different in the phase three and phase two. >> this has been a busy one for biotech and pharma. we wanted to find out what meg's predictions were next a year in the drug industry. >> 2015 was a rocky year for pharma and biotech. it started off strong, continuing a multi-year rally, but hit a slow down in the second half as drug pricing concerns weighed on stocks. here is what to expect for 2016. ibo may slow but m&a is expected to continue. while 2015 saw massive mergers, 2016 may see drug makers focusing more on building pipelines. analysts expect drug giants gilead, johnson & johnson and amgen to deploy some of their serious cash hoards while insight is a topic as a target. while there is political scrutiny analysts say a near term change in policy may be unlikely. biotech has seen hundreds of new

companies entering the public market in the last few years and experts say if this run ends it will be more due to lack of supply than lack of demand. and biotech gets binary. analysts say the coming year will bring a number of events that could make or break certain biotech stocks. they point to late stage clinical trial data, an fda decisions for intercept, serepta and others. as we talked about binary events in biotech none is better instated by chi marks today. it's not a market where you can buy into an etf and expect biotech to go up. ibb we have had a rough year in the ibb etf, the biotech etf still has done fairly well, up 11% for the year, it's down about 1% today, but -- so this year might be a little different. >> you mentioned political scrutiny, next year, of course, presidential election year, pricing pressures, you know,

that will probably get more scrutiny as well as we get closer to election day. >> so much scrutiny we did a second set of predictions just about drug pricing so that should air later this week. it will be an intense year. >> on the m&a one, you mentioned insight, that's the target. any other have analysts talked about? >> a lot of times people talk about rare diseases as areas that drug makers want to street up. vertex works in cystic fibrosis is discussed as being a take out company for gilead, some people bat down that rumor but those are two. >> no one knows more about pharma and biotech than meg tirrell. >> i would beg to differ. >> you're wrong about that. that's the one thing you're wrong about. >> see you later. >> we're heading to the close, we have, what, 20 minutes left in the trading session here with the dow down just 28 points. freeport mack ma ran's

co-founder is stepping down from the board months after carl icahn revealed a stake in the beleaguered coal company. plus disney and "star wars" continue to defy expectations as the sci-fi seek we will storms it's way to the box office faster than any movie in history.

slight down day to begin the week of what is traditionally the santa claus rally, hasn't happened yet, although look at that, we do have a few stocks that are higher today among the dow 30, disney leading the way after the big numbers coming out about "star wars." so it's the leader today. by the way, i hesitated because art cashin was just signaling to me the buys today is $300 million to the buy side going into the close here. a little slightlyup ward bias. >> the inspector of carl icahn looming over a beleaguered company. >> changes today at freeport mcmoran. we don't know if the changes actually had to do specifically

with carl icahn, do we? >> we don't. that is why i'm going to say a few months after carl icahn it announced a large position and agreed to have two of his nominees tame those seats. james jim bob move fit is resigning. perhaps given his long tenure in the business and stature of co-founder of the mcmoran piece of the company which is freept's on and off partner over the years, in many ways their struggles are not unique, it has taken steps recently to combat the revenue shortfall and issues, including shoving its dividend and exploring a spin off of the oil and gas assets. as the world's largest publicly traded copper producer in the world, people who follow the company closely say that whether icahn had a plant in moffett's

departure isn't clear and he will continue to help their handel their operations in indonesia. it wouldn't appear to be unfriendly, either. some onlookers have drawn comparisons to shanier energy where icahn was perceived as having a big hand as pushing out the ceo there. we don't know what went on. some i talk to think that icahn had no role in it, but the timing certainlien makes me wonder. >> the stock is down 70.7% so far this year, it is one of the worst performers on the s&p and it's no wonder. this is a company that mines copper, gold, drills for oil, all of those commodities. >> it's in all the wrong places. >> what's the icahn plan for tapping value? >> well, you know, he has talked about improving operations, maybe making some more efficiencies happen within the company. he had a hand in shrinking the size of the board and as i said,

you know, has two nominees that will be joining the board. you know, they are exploring the spinoff of the oil and gas assets which could be beneficial, i guess. oil is far down, actually worse this calendar year than copper. so, you know, whether or not those assets will realize good prices in this environment isn't entirely clear. perhaps skinnying down the business model and being able to focus on what they do well, some of those base and precious metals may help, but it's hard to say. if you look at a glencore which is down last i looked over 60% this is what's happening to the miners, we talk about energy but the miners are suffering, too. >> thanks, kate. >> we've got 12 minutes to go before the closing bell sounds. we still see red across the screen, but it is those energy companies who are conversation who are getting hit the hardest in today's session, the dow is off the lows, down 33 points, s&p 500 down .3%, so is the nasdaq which is still in

positive territory up 6% for the year. >> 2016 just four days away, our next guest is looking outside the u.s. for opportunities of investing and he will explain where when we come back. . you pay your car insurance premium like clockwork. month after month. year after year. then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. yeah... surprise... your insurance company tells you to pay up again. why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it?

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about nine minutes left in the trading session as we head toward the close with the dow down 32 points. joining us right now at post 9 is kevin nicole son from riverfront investment group. even of a a flat year here for the u.s. stock market you are among those who are looking still overseas for better investment opportunities. where and why? >> so for us it's the eurozone and japan. they are both places that are continuing to have quantitative easing and the u.s. now we are following the fed has raised rates, so there is a bit of a head wind because of the strong dollar. so that's kind of why we have gravitated towards international markets and away from the u.s. in 2016 we feel that the u.s. is going to basically have single-digit returns. >> i have two points on that. one, didn't we learn from mario draghi's last press conference and decision that it may not be such an easy bet that the ecb is going to pump in more

quantitative easing and aren't you concerned that that's a consensus crowded trade, that those are the place that qe will get into the equity markets. >> it has been a crowded trade, however, we feel when you look at europe, they outearned the u.s. this year for the first time in a long time and we think that that's going to continue. we focused in the eurozone our play was the exporters and in japan we had been on the exporters initially but now we are more domestic-oriented, we have taken the hedges off in japan, we, you know, feel that the euro still has some depreciation to go and that we will probably see parody in 2016. so while it's a crowded bet we still believe that it's a bet that works. >> energy stocks, i mean, they've been beaten down. you're not ready to step in there yet, or even the financials. high expectations at the beginning of this year, expecting the fed to begin

raising interest rates which would seem to be beneficial for those financials. what about them as well? >> so -- >> just for two examples. >> we like banks, i think that with the banks we believe that they are going to have low loan losses and, you know, wages are starting to pick up in the work force. >> right. >> so folks are starting to get a little bit more excited in the consumer confidence. so as consumer confidence builds and bankers are not seeing the loan losses go up, then their confidence builds. so we think that banks are going to be a good place to be. also it doesn't hurt that interest rates are moving higher, it's a net interest margin will help. energy we're basically kind of staying away interest energy at the moment. we have guidance in the u.s. with oil services, but we know that energy is a big emerging markets play and we've been under way in emerging markets all year. >> it needs to prove itself a little more.

>> exactly. not ready to step? >> thanks, kevin. >> thank you. >> kevin nicole son joining us. up next we are coming right back with the closing countdown. >> after the bell tonight netflix has been a high flying stock in 2015 but barron's over the weekend said it's worth half of what youtube is worth. we will debate whether youtube is the future of streaming coming up. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide.

all right. we've got about two minutes -- a

little more than two minutes left here. bob pisani, my wing man for the closing countdown today. they're trying might i will to go positive here, but not happening so far. the dow was down more than 100 points on the open this morning, we have come back and holding on to this decline of 32 points. disney, though, among the stocks trading higher today after the "star wars" numbers came out over the weekend. crude oil continues to move lower, wti still trading slightly above brent crude, but a decline of 3.6% today to $36.73. the big gainer, though, how about this gain is that the gas as the forecasts come out. natural gas is up more than 30% in the last ten trading days. >> this was a predictable rally in that the gas. you just -- with december the hottest month on record, just wait for some day it goes into the 30s somewhere in the northeast united states and go long -- go long, you know, three times that the gas etf and i don't generally ever promote

those -- and leverage etf, but this was a logical calls, and some money was made on this. there was very heavy volume on those particular etfs. >> this is the week for the santa claus rally. >> how miserable are we? we can't even get a santa claus rally. they want to go positive. oil never rallied throughout the day and yet we have been trying to go positive throughout the afternoon. a number of sectors have now turned positive, telecom stocks, telecoms are positive, utilities are positive, consumer discretionary was positive, tech went positive, microsoft had a good day, google has had a good day. absolutely the market wants to rally. if oil will calm you down in the next few days i predict we will get a modest seal and the s&p will end in positive territory but that's a big call with oil not behaving and china down 2% that was another factor we had today. >> that set the tone for today

that's for sure. >> we are trying to rally right now. >> we will see. thank you, bob. see you later. >> the only make believe program here at the new york stock exchange ringing the closing bell, at the nasdaq it's the nonprofit group the marfan group. much more to come on the second hour of the "closing bell." welcome to the "closing bell" i'm sara eisen in today for kelly evans. bill will be rejoining us in just a moment. let's take a look at how we're if i know thing the day. the beginning of the last trading week of 2015 starting with declines, certainly off the lows of the session, the dow closing down about 23, almost 24 points here, s&p 500 down 4.5 or .2%, the nasdaq down 0.15%, lower volumes in this holiday-shortened trading week. we are joined for the hour by john in a naz yan. was this just a reversal in what

we saw last week which was strong commodities and a nearly 3% surge in the s&p or -- >> or. >> -- are we getting a clue into what 2016 will look like? >> i think people are evening things up into the end of the year. i'm not trying to read so much into either last week or today. i think given that it's no longer t plus 3, which it used to be, meaning of course you had to close out positions three days before year-end, now you can do it all the way up until the closing print, that is, to take either profits or losses and have them registered in this trading year, most people of course matching up losses. maybe that's what some of that was, some of the dash for track last week, the freeport moves, the silver and gold. gold -- silver, anyway, down 3% today on pretty heavy volume in that etf. so i'm not trying to read too much into that really, i'm more into people just evening up positions in the year-end. >> tell me you were long that the gas going into this rally. >> no, i wish i was, bill, because i need it. i need a boost like that at

least in the halftime portfolio, something that moves like 8% like that, but i got a nice move out of netflix today coming off of the bottom so i was happy with that. yeah, i did not call that one, but that would have been another dash for trash because few things have been trashed like natural gas. >> i was just going to pick up on the netflix thing. i'm looking at the nasdaq, we're talking about the nasdaq being positive for the year more than 6%. if you look at the winners today, amazon, alphabet, google, netflix and facebook. this has been the story of 2015. where would the nasdaq be without the gains of those major companies? >> it would be down double digits basically without those. they are all big cap stocks. so certainly they are overweighted in the nasdaq and deservedly so apparently by exactly the performance they put up this year. >> we are joined now by tim see more from "fast money," he is up at the nasdaq.

what's catching wur attention right now? >> the same themes are alive and well today. the only thing that's a little interesting for people looking at oil and some of the risk assets that are highly correlated to the dollar, you've seen the dollar today a big weaker but the 200 day moving average has now gone negative for the first time in a year and a half. it's a slight change in the slope and it's not something i think we can build a major no of off of here, but people that are looking at 2016 it really will be about where have a lot of these trades that are not one-year trades, they're, two, three, four-year trades will we get some reversion back to the mean. even a little bit will mean a lot for people. the dollar is a big thing. today that's interesting to me it's the first thing we have seen this thing go negative on slope. >> he brought up the currency as its leader. >> sara told you to say that. >> the smart money knows. >> let's talk oil, gang. breaking a four-day winning streak today, saudi arabia announced major spending cuts for 2016 as the kingdom's

coffers have been designacimate this decline in oil revenue. >> anything surprise you in the saudi budget that would lead you to think that they might reverse their position on oil output? >> sara, it's interesting, a lot of bulls that have been hanging on by their fingernails in this market over the last year or two was hoping for a production cut announcement last month, but that certainly wasn't going to happen. the saudis are probably the most savvy traders in the room and going into a very lackluster demand season they weren't going to do that, however, everyone does know that saudis do have to balance the market and going into an incredible driving season that we're expecting starting in march, we are not predicting a saudi cut for production but we could certainly see one. i know they have a june meeting coming up, it could happen then, it could happen even sooner. simply a 5% production cut could give us, say, a 20% rise in

price and that might be a trade that saudis might be willing to do. >> can they afford that, though? we were talking earlier, can you name an oil producer that isn't suffering as a result of the declines we've seen here and that includes the mighty saudi arabia? the sin i can says that they're holding production where they are and just trying to put a lot of u.s. producers out of business. >> haven't she already done that. >> some production has come off line as a result of that. are they finished yet or what's going on here? >> bill, we're getting close. it is expected that some 80% of oil producers over the last two years have had very good hedges on, in other words, they have been spared the route in crude oil because of their hedges. some had oil sold at 70 and $80, it's expected right now that a lot of the hedges have even fallen off or are about to and we will find out who is swimming two ut a suit on very soon. >> i know you're big on emerging markets and you have played this for a long time, so many that the emerging markets fall this

year has to do with the decline of commodity prices i wonder what your forecast is for oil and other commodities into next year and what that will mean for emerging markets at the same time that the fed has started its hiking cycle. >> i'm not in the business of putting a price on oil. i will say that i do think oil prices have seen their worst and i think certainly energy shares have, but it's always about in this environment finding the best balance sheets out there. if you compare with cap ex are for some of the best and worst in the u.s., you have some people who are profitable even at 50 and the best of the balance sheets that continue to look better and he will be opportunistic. when i look at where oil price right side right now i think we are starting to see first of all the premium of wti over brent tells me that u.s. markets are starting to tighten already and as we're talking about right now, it's been a little more sluggish, whether it's been the hedges, whether it's been, i think, the efficiency of a lot of these producers, it's taking longer to see this play out, but it's playing out, we're seeing

bankruptcies, we're seeing the credit tightening around it. i look at emerging, i think a lot of bad news has been priced into emerging markets if you think about capital outflows, they typically for emerging happen three to six months before the fed starts hiking. that's my way of saying i think it may have seen its worst as well. >> just a quick question. the question is given what iran is about to be able to do again by bringing production not only increasing production but bringing it to global markets, isn't that one of the main drivers that kept saudis pedal to the metal rather than putting their foot on the brake because they are not going to cut production if they think that extra that's coming on to the markets is going to drive it into the mid to high 20s, are they? >> jon, you are right, perception is oil coming from everywhere. iraq just recently announced we have increased production, iran barrels will be coming on again very soon. it seems to us that the saudis do need to balance the market.

going into a weak demand season right now they weren't going to do that. the iranian barrels i think are priced in or very close to it and we do expect prices to start moving higher march and april. i would not be short during the month of february this coming year. >> so before we let you go you are not seeing $20 oil? >> no, we don't. i realize that the global economy isn't that strong right now, but it's much stronger than that. oil in the 20s will likely not happen. i don't think we are going to see that in winter, we are not going to see it next year, either. no. >> james, thanks for joining us today. on a related note, the shanghai composite overnight had its worst day of the trading month today and that's resurfacing fears about china related to this commodities story. our seema mody has the details on this big move overnight in china. >> that's right. a couple of factors contributing to the selloff in chinese equities, first disappointing data, china posting its sixth consecutive month of declines in industrial profits, particularly

weak on the mining front as companies battle slowing demand and falling prices. beijing is expected to reveal further supply reforms next year to cut down on capacity. investor sentiment also soured by a new ipo system that was approved by lawmakers overnight aimed at making it easier for chinese companies to go public. the concern is that this new system will lead to an oversupply of shares in the market, sbo bank kpingting 600 companies to go public. they are trying to transition to a u.s. style ipo system but investors don't seem to be too positive about the impact it will have on liquidity hence the sharp decline in chinese stocks overnight, the shanghai composite posting its biggest loss in a month. for a while bad news was seen as good news for the chinese stock market because it sugsd to many that the central bank would continue to implement new fiscal and monetary policies but the fact they have done so much and been to proactive in 2015 and we

haven't seen a significant change in the chinese economy suggests whether these policies are effective going forward. >> that is a question. seema mody, thank you very much. a lot of questions around china into next year. tim, i wonder what the spillover affect is on to our market. everyone looks at the shanghai composite over a long period of time versus the s&p 500 and they are not very correlated though this summer we got a taste of what it feels like to worry about china. >> yeah, if today you look at the chooen yuan we actually were about 15 bips weaker, you are at the all time lows in numerically all time highs against the exchange rate of the dollar. back in august we were complaining with the market even a little strorng. today the currency is another thing that people are worried about. if you look at the opportunities you had at chinese trades the best of breed are the places that you want to stay. if you look at the move you had in even alibaba which is now 40% over the bottom, i think these

are names that continue to be very strong. the other part of the equity market is there are names for companies that are big state-owned enterprises like china telecom their chief is apparently under some type of an investigation. the anti-graph grow in china is the other thing that has people very worried and that's one of the reasons this market is down. >> someone called the yuan chart the chart of the day i recall. >> chart of the year perhaps. >> chart of the year, yes. any of those he mentioned, alibaba, you know, all the usual suspects that come out of china, anything getting your attention right now? >> certainly ba ba, bidu as well, tim knows the emerging markets as well as anyone, but i would coat tail him on them. i think bidu because of the traffic that they have on that site as well as alibaba which is just languished for the bulk of this year, at least the second half of the year and just struggled to keep its head above water, those would be two that i would watch into this next cycle. >> to the point about the

correlation with the s&p 500, do you see it as a risk to the u.s. stock market next year? >> i don't see it as big a risk. if indeed what draghi is doing over in europe, sara, if what he's doing over there, doesn't have, doesn't take effect, it appears to be already taking some effect, but it if it didn't take effect i'd think europe is going to be a bigger problem for us if indeed they can't get that turned around with the trillion dollars they're throwing at that versus china with more of an emerging economy. >> u.s. companies have more exposure and do more business with europe at this point. >> last topic, tim. volatility, are you going to buy it here? is the vix destined to come back again? >> yeah, i think it will be. i think depending on how you are playing volatility is obviously many different ways to own volatility, but the vix below 15 is a buy. i mean, no matter how you are looking at both late year liquidity and i think the dynamics here, these are things that are going to continue into the year-end. we've heard from the federal

reserve over the last couple days they have given out data in terms of where the dealer community has had to step away or they are stepping away from that market in a way that at least is a concern to me. i think you've seen a transfer of risk from sell side to buy side which will create more risk and more volatility. so long story short, if you believe we're late cycle in this economy or this market, another reason why there is going to be more volatility early next year, i think you take your opportunities to buy volatility. >> very good. we will see you guys later. you can stick around, catch tim and the rest of the "fast money" crew at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. they will be talking to dennis gartman about the new normal in the oil trade. don't miss that coming up next hour. meantime, alphabet's youtube is growing at a very fast pace but is it twice as valuable as net friction? that's what the barron's cover story over the weekend claimed. we will debate it next. >> it's almost mind-boggling.

disney shares finally feeling the power of the force now that "star wars" is the fastest film to gross $1 billion, just 12 days is took, but the "star wars" effect is also carrying over to other movies at the box office. we will have details coming up later on "closing bell." you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide.

a battle is brewing between youtube and netflix in the fight to capture the attention of video viewers. barr barron's magazine taking the rivalry to its front cover writing why youtube is worth twice as much as netflix. >> but take a look at the stock performance of alphabet and netflix this year. netflix soared more than 135% compared to that gain of 45% for what we now call alphabet. let's bring in ross gerber from gerber kawasaki who favors netflix and ken senna who flavors alphabet's youtube as does barron's. ken, let's start with you. can you see a 30% gain there as barron's is positing?

>> they came out a little bit higher on youtube than we have but i certainly agree with the assessment of how they approached alphabet and i think if you look at the scale and kind of the mass scale of youtube and the ability for them to provide a combination of ad supported and even starting to provide subscription-based products, i certainly think they can help content providers reach a globalized audience and help them reach the billion plus viewers of youtube. >> ross, what's your case for netflix at this point which has already been the darling of the market up, what, 100- >> 39. >> -- 39% for 2015. what makes you think it can be higher than alphabet for the year. >> i think we have to separate the two businesses because they're different, netflix being a subscription model versus an ad supported model like youtube. netflix makes real tv shows by real producers versus user-generated content on

youtube. netflix's content is the best in the world, worldwide there is literally hundreds of millions if not billions of tv viewers and adds more and more markets are open for netflix more and more people will subscribe to them. we see the subscription model providing certainty with revenue and a wonderful ability to continue to raise prices either with or above inflation to meaningfully grow their profits and business over the next five years. >> and dr. john that is a smile we see on your face but you bought netflix this morning. >> bought it this morning on the big dip. the reason for the dip was the article that we are talking about in barron's, at least that was my perception, the reason for the selloff in netflix and it came $4 off of that, made it all the way back to unchanged only to finish down 20 cents on the day. what really appealed to me was 12% short interest now, bill, that's up from a 7% short interest in august. that tells me that there is a lot of people who could be squeezed into the end of the

year, there is a lot of people who obviously don't want to book profit this year who would prefer to do that into next year. so i think there is a lot of reasons that we could see a lift into the final trading days of this year. as far as a pick going forward i still like them and for my money i'd rather be in netflix than google in the short term than long-term, long-term i would rather be in alphabet. >> shouldn't we introduce facebook in this category. >> i think certainly. i think as facebook starts to move more aggressively into the short form video hosting it's going to push alphabet and youtube specifically into longer form, into things that are a little harder to attain. that's why i think we're seeing red come out of youtube and google making more of a concerted effort into hollywood to focus on licensing content that they don't have. if you look at its current audience we have them as about a billion 4 viewers on youtube,

that's really only about $60 per youtube user even if you come up with a valuation close to what barron's had assessed. that $60 compares to $800 value per subscribe for for net friction right now. >> you're missing a few points with that metric. a youtube subscriber is worth little. where a netflix video will watch it for hours on end every day. >> see, i disagree with that. i think if you look at the engagement you see the viewership on youtube still quite strong. >> it's not about viewership it's the quality of the eyeballs on the view. everything isn't equal. if i watch a two minute cat video and see a display ad that actually is very little value to an advertiser. >> i think that really oversimplifies, though, the youtube experience. >> there is no experience. there is no experience on youtube. it's a mess. it's a mess of videos that you go on and erch. >> i strong lisz disagree with

that. i think if you listen to content providers who want to own their audience this will be moving away from wanting to do exclusive deals with netflix and starting to go nonexclusive on facebook and youtube. i think you will look at many billion plus audience platforms and they will find very attractive ways to reach that audience. >> you're missing two major competitors, you have facebook and you have periscope and twitter now getting into video and a lot of bloggers are moving from youtube to periscope now because they prefer the live format and the interaction. >> are you looking at the periscope numbers versus youtube's? >> periscope is brand new, youtube is ten years old. >> i'm not trying to diminish that and i like youtube, it has a utility, but its actual value to an advertiser is not that high and netflix -- >> i think you need to talk to advertisers. >> i am one of them. i can talk to myself. i am one. >> i think you need to talk to more advertisers and agencies and hear the value that they're

getting. >> do you know the difference between display ad value and search ad value? google's did sh. >> youtube is nice because it's both, sir. >> we have to go here, guys. i know we won't resolve this anytime soon but it is entertaining. >> you can have your kids watch netflix but you can't let them watch youtube because who knows what is on it. >> we've got to go. very good discussion. lively, that's for sure. ken, thank you, ross, you're not rushing off to watch a cat video, that's clear. >> i'm going to go watch netflix. >> how do you keep your kids interest watching youtube? that's challenging. >> coming up, we will hear from somebody who predicts that caterpillar's 25% decline this year could spark the ire of activist investors next year. plus tornadoes, devastating floods and blizzards rocking large parts of this country over the weekend. we will have the latest weather report on the extreme winter weather conditions live on the ground when we come back.

extreme weather slamming much of the midwest and south this weekend including deadly tornadoes in texas. nbc's charles hadlock is live in garland, texas with the latest on the ground there. charles. >> reporter: hi, sara. this tornado struck garland, texas, on saturday night, about 6:45 p.m. this is the landmark apartments

on the southern edge of garland and landmark now takes on a new meaning because everyone can see it now. this is what an ef-4 tornado can do with winds of more than 170 to 180 miles an hour according to the forecasters who have been out looking at where this tornado hit. they say it was 550 yards wide and the path was 13 miles long across parts of eastern dallas county. in all 11 people were killed, eight of those were in their vehicles along interstate 35. again, this was nighttime and people couldn't see it coming. the remarkable thing is that no one in structures in the garland area were killed. a lot of preplanning went into this. not only was the forecasting done three days in advance, all the television stations were on the air tracing the storm as it came across the area and also the cellphone apps were going off. a lot of people credit that with

saving their lives, letting them be aware that this storm was on its way. sara, bill. >> nbc's charles hadlock. thank you. it is time for cnbc news update with sue herrera. >> here is what's happening at this hour. defense secretary ash carter is congratulating iraq on its takeover of ramadi calling it a significant step forward in the fight against isis. the iraqi army retook the city after a week of heavy fighting. islamic militants had been in control of ramadi since may. a new study says ultrasound screenings are comparable to mammograms when it comes to detecting breast cancer. researchers found ultimately sounds diagnosed a higher proportion of invasive cancers but also had a larger portion of false pos tifts, it included 2000 patients anded took three years to complete. practicing football without helmets or shoulder pads could cut down on head injuries.

a university of new hampshire study found players who did helmetless drills had 30% less head impacts per game. and the reporter behind the sports doping story that names peyton manning is standing by her article. debra davies told nbc manning has not directly denied claims that he used hvh. manning called the story garbage and the source used in the article recanted his story. that's the news update, back to you. i'm just noting a story that just crossed, the founder of the indianapolis medical facility where those drugs were made says that the former unpaid student intern who is the source in the al jazeera story didn't even work at the clinic in 2011. so the story is beginning to be peeled back layer by layer. it's going to be interesting to see what happens next. >> thank you, sue. very much. you know, i'm a huge fan of

peyton manning, even the source is recanting this story. >> it certainly seems like the way it's playing out, bill, if indeed this source didn't even work at that facility, the source beyond being called into question is basically being trotted out in the media as a liar, even though the reporter says that she had this source for the story, seems like the source was not a good one and should have been backed up a little more rather than just trying to catch a headline for obviously a hugely successful and famous person. people try to knock him off that thrown when they are on it. >> they have asked peyton if he would sue for defamation because he said defaming him. he said, yeah, he is that angry right now. >> you can't blame him. he has a real brand and a value and we all know that from the dozens of commercials we see him in all the time. >> you bet. all right. "star wars" blasting its way

into the record books, coming up we will break down just how much money this film has made so far and the other films that are benefiting from these "star wars" halo effect. but first can this year's biggest stock losers like wynn and yahoo be next year's big winners? find out whether you should be loving the losers when we come right back. here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. sup jj? working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app in the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of the other competitors do in desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivative pricing model, honey? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

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watch discovery. record this. voila. remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back. the x1 voice remote is here. let's take a look at how we finished the day on wall street. stocks stumbled throughout the day, the dow closed lower, lows of the day down 23 points, s&p 500 closed down 4, the nasdaq down 7.5. this puts this s&p? negative territory joining the dow for 2015. a lot of the move today was driven by the price of oil which closed lower, has been under pressure all day. oil, wti, trading in this country down more than 3.5% to 36.73, brent trading even lower. we have a news alert on hoverboard fires. sue herrera with details on that. >> that was the hot holiday toy item under the christmas tree. the consumer products safety

commission is announcing that it is currently investigating 22 reports of hoverboard fires in at least 17 states. they say that those states include alabama, california, florida, georgia, illinois, louisiana, maryland, nebraska, new jersey, new york, north carolina, ohio, oregon, pennsylvania, texas and washington state. however, they are saying that they have received 70 reports of emergency room treated injuries with whoever boards and you can see why, looking at some of that video. they say you should wear a helmet and pads if you're going to ride a hoverboard. so 22 reports of hoverboard fires, however, keep in mind an awful lot of those have been sold. we don't know what percentage of that would be that 22 -- what percentage that would be of whoever boards sold. we will keep you posted on that story. back to you. >> thank you, sue, very much. some of this year's biggest losers caught a bid over the last few trading days here.

yahoo, wynn showed ugly performances this year, yahoo down 53%, wynn down 54%. >> katie stockton from btig joining us to make her case with the charts. let's start with yahoo. >> it has been an ugly year for yahoo but what we've noticed in the fourth quarter is some mean reversion. we've seen some of these former losers start to outperform, especially in october. if you notice on yahoo this rally, this relief rally is what i would call it was 23% in october compared to 8% for the s&p 500. for that move you saw outperformance, you saw momentum improve. you can also see in the curvature of the 50 period moving average. it does seem to be recapturing momentum. it's not the best looking chart that you could imagine. >> not yet. >> not having to join the fang

stocks or momentum stocks but for those seeking out oversold stocks in the marketplace had might qualify. it is based on some indicators the most oversold it's been since 2010. >> what about wynn, then? >> if you look at wynn -- >> hit clear, first. >> here we go. if you look at wynn still a long-term down trend but it's within that down trend it's been consolidating and that reflects a loss of down side momentum. yet again here we actually have a bit of a triangle formation having formed within that down trend. to me that reflects the loss of down side momentum, outperformance in that month of october versus the broader market and you're really seeing some signs of life here. a breakout from that triangle formation to me would be a nice catalyst for wynn and other stocks. >> dr. j. >> look licking your chops there. >> as far as the dash for trash especially but i think a lot of these are covering at the end of the year and in las vegas sands today, for instance, it had a similar kind of recovery to the

one she just described and people just rolled up a serious number of calls, i think, 30,000 of those calls from one month to the next. so, in other words, they want to stick with it rather than just liquidating and taking their profits and running. that's a good sign. >> is this a short-term trade, katie? i mean, especially these two charts you're showing, horrible for 2015. does that mean a better year for 2016 or just a pop to begin the year? >> i would say a better year in total but the first quarter is where i would focus. >> how often does this work where you buy the most beaten down stocks of the year and hope that they will come back the following year? >> it works better in years like 2015 where we have had more of a range in the s&p 500, less well in years like 2013 and '14 which were more uptrending years. >> very good. good to see you. thanks for joining us today. we have a news alert on pep boys. seema mody has the details. >> shares of pep boys up better than 4% after hours after carl

icahn enterprises has increased its bid on pep boys to 1850, that's higher than the 1650 bid initially made. it's also higher than the bid from bridge stone, the bid from bridge stone that it made on christmas receive of $17. this transaction would not be subject to any due diligence, financing or antitrust conditions. the big headline here carl icahn enterprises increasing its bid on pep boys to $18.50 a share. icahn tweeting out this news, you can see shares of pep boys up now, i believe, 4 or now 5% after hours, sara. >> thank you, seema. nice pop for pep boys. >> do you try to play carl icahn's coat tails at all? >> you have been in trouble this year in if you did because carl has had a number of tough picks and that's not to say that mine are perfect, either, but this one is certainly a relatively easy one given that you've got competition coming in, bill, so,

in other words, that bidding war and then it's a question of musical chairs, who is the last one that's going to get this done and how aggressive is bridge stone really going to be, but it's still just under a billion dollars even with this after hours pop so this is not such a huge market cap that it can't be joined by others. >> pep boys now up 6% in the after hours session. speaking of deals, 2015 was a record year for deal making but we have someone who says that the m&a bubble could deflate next year. but first the force turns out to be strong with the latest "star wars" movie, but it's not just disney benefiting from the record breaking box office numbers. other companies as well which we will talk about. details coming up next, you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

"star wars: the force awakens" has taken movie theaters by storm to the tune of $1 billion already worldwide in just 12 days. >> julia boorstin joining us with the box office details. these are big. >> they're big, sara, that's right. "star wars: the force awakens" continues setting massive records for the second week in a row, more than 5 million people saw the film on christmas day grossing amounts of $49 million in the u.s. alone, double the prior christmas day record. it was the second weekend -- it was the biggest second weekend in theaters ever for a film, i

max today announcing that the force awakens reached $100 million worldwide as a record pace. the film was grossed $1.1 billion in global box office and hasn't yet opened in the world's second biggest movie going market which is china. more blockbuster numbers from a bill m that relaunches a massive franchise for disney helping that stock buck the downward trend today and end up 1.3%. disney shares are up about 14% so far this year. and we have to remember the better the film performs the better that bodies for consumer product sales which are expected to be in the billions over the next 12 months. "star wars'" massive success has lifted the total u.s. box office, year to date the box office is up 7% over last year and analysts are optimistic it will have a halo effect on movie going over the next couple of months encouraging people to get back to theaters. bill. >> i mean, avatar we know is the box office champ at this point,

$2.79 billion. it was in 2009 the last time christmas was on a friday when it had its second weekend and that was the best weekend in box office history. this time it beats it. so we are just wondering whether "star wars" will make it over the finish line and become the number one box office champ here. >> "star wars" has already had the two biggest weekends ever in its first and second weekend so it certainly is on track. this holiday season is crucial here, bill, because it has another week now, another big weekend before everyone is expected to go back to work in january. so we could see another big weekend and at this point a lot of people are returning to see the movie two and three times. so it's going to be really interesting to see how powerful that repeat audience is. but i do think that there is a potential for this to really lift the total box office moving forward. think about all the people who are now exposed to tailers because they are in theaters. >> i mean, we were just showing some of the movies out this weekend, even a picture with

will farrell called dgs da he had's home". >> which got a 30% on rotten tomatoes. >> but it grossed $40 million at the u.s. box office. that's counter programming. all the people who saw "star wars" opening weekend, now something else to see or perhaps you want to see a comedy rather than "star wars," there's something else out there. >> and joy also. >> david l. russell still killing it. >> now we're starting to see some of these films that are real oscar bait, the films we expect to get a lot of attention from the globe. i saw "joy" i thought it was good. exactly the kind of movie you want to see if you're looking for the anti-"star wars." >> "star wars" or daddy's home? >>. >> you do have two of the most marketable stars, brad pit is fabulous, however, not as marketable as will farrell and mark wahlberg, mark wahlberg of course a new yorker, but this is

a great combo, they have done pictures together in the past and have brought in big box office on those, no surprise that this one might keep up a very close race, but it's not going to overtake "star wars." >> it is interesting to watch some of these movie theater operator stocks over 2015 they have underperformed the broader market on these constant worries about netflix and other avenues for streaming put out as julia said a record year on some of these major blockbuster hits. >> i bet, sara, you being a tech savvy person have probably done just like i have and watched a lot of movies while they are still in theaters from the comfort of my home. if you have a home viewing system -- >> i like movie popcorn. >> okay. well, then you have that. >> thank you. thank you, julia. >> thanks, julia. >> coming up, on "closing bell," why caterpillar could be a new activist target in 2016 and some oerd bold predictions for the new year. >> extra butter? >> no, i do it without butter. >> i'm not surprised. >> it's the best.

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only -- hard to believe, only three days left in 2015. >> trading days. >> but a few, only three days left as well. >> it is not over yet. >> predictions for the new year are just coming in. >> this is going so well so far. joining us with the three top picks for 2016, rob cox from reuters. happy new year. >> happy new year to you too. >> let's start with your first prediction on shareholder activism in 2016. they have been very active in '15. what do you see for the next year. >> it is trying to identify the next target. we have big, big companies targeted. this year we saw general electric targeted by nelson peltz. and we tried to look for companies where you had some problems, where the stock is down a fair amount, where you have the potential for portfolio realignment or changes. and where you have management

that might be somewhat discredited. and coming through that, and we looked and found this company called caterpillar. you may have heard of it. they make this giant earth-moving machinery. and they did a deal to buy a company, a terrible deal. they make the giant things that look like aardvarks that find iron ore in the bottom of the earth. but they bought it at the wrong time. so aur antenna suggests there might be movement in caterpillar this year. >> we'll see about that one. next one, we want to talk about m&a. because this has been a big year for deal-making, mega-mergers. some of the biggest we've ever seen. you are not expecting it to last. >> i don't think at this level. we're at $4.5 trillion of m&a value this year. a lot of that is driven in the united states where you start to see deals getting harrier, more

mon on my, and look at pfizer and allergan. the biggest deal, $160 billion. that would have been huge value destructive if it wasn't a giant tax loophole as an in version, as it were. you could go to big deals, sab miller, there won't be another one like that, certainly not in the beer industry. and it is looking difficult. and the other thing i look at it you look at the shareholder responses of the acquiring companies. so when the companies make the announcement, look at the stock price reaction. over the last eight quarters up until the last two quarters, it had been very positive. over 50% the stock went up. it is about 35%, 36% this quarter and about 35% last quarter. that tells you that investor spirits are not quite as robust as they were before. and eventually that will trickle

up as it were to boardrooms. they are just not going to be as adventurous. >> then enthusiasm not as great. and you said quarterly reporting will get a major rethink. >> you've heard people like larry flynt at black rock or hillary clinton and people around the world saying they are tired of the treadmill of getting on and having to do guidance every quarter and coming out with numbers every quarter. and there is a real movement or i should say a simmering movement to go back to twice a year reporting. you just saw it recently out of legal and general, big insurance company in the u.k., where you could opt out of doing quarterly reporting. you can't do that in the u.s. or germany. but fund managers say it is a distraction. it makes ceo's focus on the short-term rather than the long-term. they don't make long-term strategic decisions and it is a waste of money. i think you will see a very big

insurance asset management company come out and rail against the earnings, probably not here, but maybe in europe, but that is a prediction for sure. >> what do you think, doctor, would wall street tolerate that? >> i think they would. and it is a lot more interesting with caterpillar extending into mining with busy russ, and versus a plains, which freeport-mcmoran went after to get diversified out of the mining they were in, into oil and gas exploration. taking out a competitor might give you pricing power whereas extending into another commodities that is imploding at the same time was a very bad move for freeport. >> we'll hold you to them, rob. >> we have it on video tape. >> we'll be back next year. >> rob cox of reuters breaking views joining us. first on the nice list this christmas, fitbit.

that is what i was trying to say. the tracker topped apple's top store as people received them for gifts this season. but can the momentum last for fitbit? we'll talk about that when we come back.

fit bought topping the apple app store, giving the stock a nice pop today, up 3.3%. can the momentum continue. this is a crazy chart, dr. j., because it is back toward the first day pop toward ipo but well off the 52-week high in the 50s. >> and i bought it. >> not the stock, the device. >> i bought both the device and the stock. i bought the stock today because of the upgrade and the fact that so many people said that this was the number one free app on the app store. so i think that gives it a lot of ump as far as what the numbers might be, without them disclosing, i think we'll know. >> as viewers know, i got a fitbit for christmas last year. and it is still sitting in the drawer. there it is. that may or may not be a staged photograph. >> apparently you are a counter indicator for technology trends. >> i've become that. but it is almost like an apple

watch now, very quickly. >> i get messages on it, i get who is calling me on my phone and it will wake you up. it is a great -- as well as tracking your fitness. >> it has held up better than go-pro, talking about devices. >> good to see you. >> good to see you both. >> and we're here all week on "closing bell." "fast money" is up next. see you tomorrow. "fast money" does start right now. live from the nasdaq market site, overlooking times square. i'm melissa lee. the traders are tim, david, brian and dan. tonight on "fast," as goes oil, as does others. and dennis gartman said there is a new normal for the crude trade and it could send shock waves through the markts. >> and one of the biggest gainers, and the amazon rally is just beginning, the next big catalyst to send it to the highs.