but it is the long-term rates that matter and doesn't see the fed moving any time soon and mortgage rates shouldn't spike up all of a sudden. but that is the way that the fed hikes impact you and i, the mortgages. >> potentially. >> if the market rates go up. >> we have to go. by the way, we're here all week. >> all of us. >> thank you for joining us on "closing bell." we'll see you tomorrow. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market place overlooking times square, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. your traders on the desk. biotech fuelling the nasdaq higher to the year end but will the run in the hottest stocks come to a screeching halt and what might it mean for the run. and netflix, amazon and activision the top performers this year but are the charts signaling that the love affair may take a turn for the worst. we'll explain. and later, tesla takes off. and wul hear from one tesla expert who says buckle up,

because this is the beginning of the big surge. the two things wall street is getting wrong on the stock. but first a massive rally on the street. all indices closing with 1% across the board. the tech industry stood owl with large cap names like amazon, alphabet and microsoft. and the big winners of 20156789 big moves for netflix, starbucks, facebook and general electric. and is this your signal to stick with the winners going into 2016. pete, what do you say? >> when you are looking at the last couple of trading sessions, we have to look at volumes, which was low. and that has to be looked at. 9 million contracts in the options world. dan knows that is half. 10 million today. and do you want to over read this. and the last few weeks is a dash for trash. you look at oil and the energy stocks is what has been propelling this market. but to your point, do you stick with some of the winners? i think absolutely. i think some of the names have more upside in front of them.

and the microsofts of the world, we've seen activity, rolling up higher and higher and in time, but see it all across the very big cap tech names that continue to come into the market. most continue to perform but i'm still very apprehensive, when i look at the p.e., we said it for years of amazon, probably of netflix and some of these, but it is difficult to embrace those. the same way you would want to embrace a microsoft. >> that is exactly the point. if i'm at home, i'm asking myself, self, why do i want to pay multi-year high prices for the stocks going into 2016. >> could have said the same thing in the exact same show last year and two days prior. >> so you think it is working? >> i agree with pete. but to counter that argument in the volume is, markets could go down on light volume as well. it doesn't matter if it goes up on one share or a billion shares, you still made money today if you are long. i understand the apprehension though. with that said, netflix is a premium valuation, as is amazon.

but in my opinion, in the world today, neither could be replica replicated. could they at one point? probably. but i think they rally into earnings. the market has gotten o sides both times in earnings. you've seen people get their faces ripped off. they won't allow that to happen again. by the time amazon reports on the 20th of january, you will have a 725, $750 stock. >> pete, bare with me, and i'll do some comparison. it is a $5.3 trillion market cap and amazon and facebook and what is that last one -- google. they are up more than $500 billion $500 billion alone. that is exactly the gain of the nasdaq 100. when you think about it, you have 20% of the nasdaq 100 driving all of the performance of this index. and these are some of the

biggest stocks in the world. you could make that argument a year ago. but the big issue is the broad market has stalled out. the s&p is up 1%. and the concept is dangerous to me. so you could talk valuation to me, whatever you want, but i think it is dangerous. >> the broader market stalled out or will stall out. >> you need, breathe, mel. >> these are up 100 and some% but the s&p 500 is flat. >> but these are winners in 2015 why can't they be stand-out winners in 2016. i understand your thing about flat markets. >> so the point is you could stick with these. but you always have to be hedged. at this point in time, you have to be hedged. i'm never, ever, going to be a stock that is up 130% in the year that is $500 billion of market cap created when sales haven't increased that much and when it is a crowded trade. when this thing cracks, you have to be very careful. so i think that is what pete is

trying say. stick with it. it is momentum. until the moment um breaks, they will go higher. when they do break, watch out. >> anddy mention -- and i did mention, by the way, some are very difficult to embrace. i think the amazons of the world are very difficult. i think facebook, getting more comfortable, even though it is going toward highs. you look at the names, the growth they are showing right now is pretty impressive. but yes, you have to hedge these names. i think mief i think microsoft, most comfortable of all of the names, look at the dividend. >> how about general electric. it is up there. up 20% or so. >> we talked about this for a long time, how they needed to get back to their roots and be more like honeywell. and they did that. they got rid of ge capital. so gef is becoming more like ge was ten or 15 years ago. >> ge is in the all-time highs. >> seven-year highs. >> but it has a lot of room to

go. >> but they also announced earlier in the year, the stock didn't takeoff until they said they would sell off proceeds and buy back stocks. >> so you don't like it either. >> i think it has a great potential to break out because it is a much simpler story to guy's point that investors had a hard time getting their arms around it and now they are buying back the stock. >> so you do like ge? >> yep. >> let's move on to biotech. a strong week for the sector after what had been a rocky year. so will biotech keep heading higher in 2016 or is it tike to take a break. michael ye is from vegas. great to you see. >> great to be here. >> you're less bullish in the sector for next year. why? >> i think there is four key reasons. the first is that after three years of gains well over 30% a year in biotech, most fund managers have been overweight this sector for many years. and i think there is a situation where people are taking that overweight position and moving

equal weight. so there is a big money flow change going on. that is number one. number two, i think, is we're going into an election year and people will be cautious going into the political rhetoric that will pick up. whether it is self-fulfilling, i see the biotech stocks in a political year. third is technicals. if you look at the technicals on the mbi, the 200, the 50-day and i think it will take time to grind back up. i do think there is selective opportunity for good stock ideas and we'll talk about those but overall a tougher stock-picking year. >> so sector-wise, there are headwinds in terms of individual stocks. it sounds like you like the larger biotech stocks with a lot of cash on their balance sheets, maybe poised for a deal next year. >> yeah. bio gen has a number of catalysts. that stock has been beaten down and i think that starts to recover. you are seeing it over the last week or so.

vortex has a number of catalysts this year and cell agagen, you that stock move and i think that starts to move back up towards the highs. but it is really a stock-picker year. you need specific catalysts to move higher. >> michael, i agree with you. but on gilead, do they have to make an acquisition or what has to move the stock. it is sitting near the $100 level it seems like forever. is there something they need to do or something in the pipe that could trade it up to the upside, trading at eight times. >> that is great. the stock has been cheap, cheap for a while. this is one that will basically be sitting and grinding because you have the merck approval coming, you have people worried about pricing and i think you have people worried about what the hep c numbers look like. until they do a meaningful deal, which i don't think they will do this year or unless something hits out of the pipeline, a drug for sorosis, i think that stock

is just a grinder this year. >> michael, you mentioned the huge shift in flows. part of that is investors locking the gains over the last few years. but i'm sure part is the biotech taurus. are there a sense that people got burned by the sector and want to have nothing to do with it going into 2016. >> i think there is a little bit of biotech fatigue. that t has been three, four, five years of great performance. a lot of people have made money. a lot of people don't expect it to go up a lot this year. and some of that is rotation out into another things. one of the analysis we did when the mbi took a tumble in september was looking how the internet stocks, like the q. net and the btk had been trading in a range, as soon as the hillary tweet came out, all of the biotech and the mbi plummeted and the q-net went to all-time highs. i'm sure you are familiar with the internet stocks.

the highs reversed the other way. whether that is growth managers or rotating the money out. there has been a shift. and i think people are a little bit fatigued. so i think it will take a couple of months before we grind back and you have to be more stock selective this year. >> michael ye, thank you for joining us from vegas. guy adami. >> i like him too. >> i like that rotation. i like that analysis. >> he talks about being tourist in the biotech space and fatigue. i would agree. the political rhetoric hurt the space. no question about it. but pete would back me up. there are things that don't trade like biotech do. am gen, 2.5% dividend. the celgene news, when it traded up to 120, it has held those gains and i think it builds from there. that was tremendous news from there. and gilead, to pete's point, is ridiculously inexpensive. >> but celgene trades at 20 times. if you are long on a name like

this and you believe -- and i don't remember this argument, but whatever, dude. >> because you have so many arguments. >> another day and a number of arguments. >> and i think you guys would agree with this, celgene was 30 and went to 140 and now back at 120. it has held the trend line like a boss. it needs to held. as we go into next year, you don't want to see them breaking long-term trends. >> that would be down at 107. >> like a boss. >> the news came out, it was in the middle of the show, it must have been the dominator or someone broke the news. >> seaberg was here. >> i just said it needs to hold -- >> and dan said there is no way it holds on to that. >> i remember. i remember that. >> do not fill in the gap quickly. >> gilead, you like it and michael doesn't like it. he said it is a grinder next year. >> maybe it is a grinder. but i look at the name and the cash on the balance sheet and i think there is something. and we might disagree on one thing, i think they do an acquisition. i think they will use the cash

to acquire something. but to go off a little bit, how about bristol-myers, trades 30 times as opposed to the 20 times of celgene. and you look at the stock and all it does is go higher and higher with a great yield as well. >> we have a market flash on oil. it is pairing gains in the regular session in the after-hours session. seema mody has the details. >> data from the american petroleum institute grabbing the attention of energy traders, with a build for last week. inventory rising by 2.9 billion barrels. there was a forecasted decrease of 2.5 billion barrels. down 1% since the api number came out. melissa. >> seema, thank you. b.k., what does this do because we have inventories tomorrow. >> tomorrow at 10:30. and api hasn't been as accurate or hasn't -- the move in the market has reversed typically.

tuesday night selloff, thursday night you get the eia numbers. and i would watch tomorrow morning at 10:30, if we don't hold these gains, i think that rolls the whole market over. because in my view, that is what is driving this rally over the last couple of days. you wake up in the morning and check oil futures. they are up and everybody is happy. as soon as they start to roll over, that is when i would watch out. >> i thought interesting today wti was up 1.4% and the energy stocks were underperforming, or a mech as you like to say. >> and it has been $80 for quite sometime. a lot of people have been piling money into these names in the hopes you would get the commensurate move in the commodities you are just not getting. we're talking a big move in crude oil. $37. two weeks ago that seems like a pipe dream, other than b.k. talking about it going lower. >> i still think crude oil gos into $25.

>> $25? what side of the trade are you on on that? >> if it goes to $25, we are going to finally see what we've been waiting to see potentially, which is the high-yield market and the energy companies strapped with debts, we're going to see that if we get to that number. no doubt. up next, mcdonald's top the $120 share level for the first time ever in today's session. is there more room to run for the golden arches in the new year or will investors toss the big macinout with the trash. and will tesla deliver the goods for investors and is the street far too negative on the stock. and later, netflix, activision, are things about to sour for the beloved tech players. we'll take you behind the charts. much more "fast money" still ahead.

welcome back to "fast money." check out this chart of mcdonald's. that stock hitting an you will time high as it closed above $120 for the first time. will it keep going higher from here. dan, i would venture a guess you are going to say no? >> listen, i was actually positive to play for the

breakout a few months ago but it is up 28% on the year and trading at all-time highs and makes new highs every year. but we know the sales have declined over the last few years by 10%. per expected to bump up 10% next year. i think that is high. i think you see a reversion trade and i would not chase it into year end and see the sto stock -- they don't give monthly comps any more and if anything is not perfect when they report, it goes back to where it was. >> so that is a no. >> that is the bottom line here. >> it had to get you a little bit excited and the all day breakfast that campaign in october for the country. >> and there is another catalyst. >> what is that? >> the mc-pick two. and things like the mozzarella

sticks. >> that is seen as a catalyst. >> it is competing with the four or four. they are trying to get -- trying to get more aggressive on the pricing to entice people in. i think easterbrook has done a magnificent job in his first year. >> who said faux, faux four. when they were about to sweep through the nba playoffs. because i don't know what the four for four is. i know 30 for 30 is fantastic. >> those are great on espn. but any way. back to food. >> dan mentioned where we broke. he was right. and dan said when it broke through 103 it before break out to the upside. so give dan credit. you have to buy it. maybe not back down to those levels, maybe 115. >> this is a stock i don't bypass at the high. but at the 110 level is where i would start to take a look and see what is going on. there are catalysts going on and

it does break out. and if it does happen to continue higher, this is the place you want to be but at lower prices. next up, apple planning to move higher as iphone shipments in the fourth quarter are likely to be 5% to 10% lower than expected citing taiwan based supply makers, gee? >> this is back to danny. and this is something he has been saying. >> this is the dan seaberg show. >> and you'll see a decrease. and everything that the report said are things dan has been saying about apple the company. but what does it mean? i understand the market had a nice day to the upside but apple doesn't trade with the broader market. it did today. that is a tell. bad news -- good news in terms of the way the stock trades. that's typically a tell. we've beaten this to death in terms of valuation, of what they are and what they are. but this is still one, you buy it right here. the rip cord price is probably 102 on the down side. >> i think you wait until 102.

i think the stock will be range bound and i want to make an important one. 100 was the high before 2012. >> does it need earnings to get to 102 or will it drift to 102 on its own. >> i think there are so many people getting in front of the fact that iphone q4 sales will be down, it may be in the stock by the time you get to it. but you might see the stock lower and then get on from there. >> and we see from the show, everything is piling on. it is down from 120. do you wait to 102? perhaps. i have not been bullish on apple, but on these levels, i would think about it. >> you would? >> absolutely. >> the watch, let's all admit, we talk -- a lot of us talked about it long before that because we said, look, it is tethered. you have to have the phone to have the watch and all of that and that is an issue. >> that is never in the model. the watch wasn't a huge catalyst. >> but i think in the future that would be something. it was their launch. and then the latest, greatest,

iphones, were they different enough? they weren't. and that is the difference we're probably seeing in the stock. >> the tether ball -- you wouldn't be good. it would be too short around the pole. >> for the record, i'm not that short. >> says you. >> after a slide, is qualcomm about to turn the tide for investors behind the news that sent the stock higher. i'm melissa lee, and you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. here is what is coming up on "fast." >> tesla takes off. and the one expert who says this is just the beginning for the tesla supercharge. and he has the two things wall street is getting all wrong on the stock. plus the three musketeers. no, not those musketeers. we're talking about netflix, amazon and activision. the best performing stocks in the s&p 500 this year. but are the charts pointing to a big move lower in the new year?

much more "fast money" after this.

welcome back to "fast money." today a slew of tesla headlines giving the stock a boost from hiring sprees to the first delivery, but is the street

still too negative on the tesla empire. let's bring in michael balla band. great to see you, michael. >> thanks for having me. >> what is the number one thing the street is getting wrong about tesla. >> there are different things that investors are getting one. one major one is that it is profitable. and it isn't. and it is not planning to be profitable for quite a few years now. they have big problems -- but small problems with growth in terms of what is coming to market and when it is coming to market. the model 3, the entry level sedan is supposed to come to market in the next year or two and that should be big for the company. >> so are you not anticipating there will be any hiccups as they start to roll out new models on a single assembly line. >> there could be -- there could be hiccups. a lot of it is with consumer acceptance. if oil prices continue to tank, people might not buy it. google and apple are supposed to be planning a car. they are supposed to be autonomous cars.

and tesla is pushing forward with autonomous cars, which, depending on consumer acceptance, could really help or hurt them. >> your over all -- i know you don't cover the stock and not an investor, but it sounds like you are approaching the stock from the stand point. >> i like the real dreamer. i could count them off on one hand. and anybody that has a big dream and the will power and the capital behind them to make it happen, i like that. >> so elon musk is a dreamer. but is it a car company? is he dreaming about car companies or dreaming about something else. because i think that giga factory in the long run is the play here. >> tesla likes to make it out that they are a tech company but they are not entirely a tech company. they have automotive issues that tech companies don't face. they had to do a recall over seat belts and in the past over other things and most tech companies, they don't have to

recall products over seat belts. so tesla does face some issues. that could be driving its valuation. but it is -- its perception as a tech company could drive the valuation higher. >> michael, thank you for joining us. we should note, too, there was a bullish analyst report from global equities anticipating that the numbers that they are expected to report in january of the deliveries will come in the high end of guidance. it was 17 k to 19 k. they are saying 18300. >> i think there is a lot of pent-up demand for the model x. but the model three, it is not shipping in 2017. and they need to get the giga factory done before that. so to your point, mel, a lot of things have to go right. you want to bet on a visionary like this and buy it down for your stock when it is in your portfolio because elon musk is a winner, and he demonstrated that with the fallon nine landing

last week with space x. >> and the immediate catalyst or marker is delivery of the x. and whether or not they could meet the delivery of the x. we talked about the single assembly line. they are finishing the cars at the same point in the factory and that is a concern. >> it is a concern, no doubt. but look and see how the stock traded. back in the fall, when it broke down through 225, we said we retest the 180 level. it got down to 202. now the highest levels since october. and you have to wonder as we get toward the dates, do they start to chase, much like they will chase the other names they mention. and the answer is yes, they probably do chase the stock. and remember i like dreaming by kenny nolan. >> super song. have that on eight-track. >> no doubt. want me to hum a few bars. >> exactly. in his '75 nove a. >> coming up it was a record deal, but what about the new year. the traders give you the undercover names right for the

picking. and take a look at how the sectors are finishing up in the year. consumer discretionary, health care in the lead, there you have it. much more "fast money" after this. sure, tv has evolved over the years.

it's gotten squarer. brighter. bigger. it's gotten thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks surge across the board in today's session. the s&p 500 and nasdaq jumped and closing at the highest level since december 4th. and amazon and microsoft and alphabet hitting new or multi-year highs. this has been a record year for deal-making but could next year get even hotter. the four names to watch that could be ripe for a takeover. plus it might be time to take profits in one of the best performing stocks in the s&p 500. and here is a hint. it is not netflix or amazon. don't be too smart here. we'll tell you what it is and why one insider said it is so vulnerable. but first, from your living room to the boardroom, we are going off the charts with

cornerstone macro's carter worth to find out if they could go higher. the top three performers so far this year. >> and it is quite a spectacle. and the numbers speak for themself. it is the top ten or 20. if you look at the s&p equal index, it is making new 52-week lows. so do you take profits? sure. but if you are bold, do you try to get short. for now, this is a chart of those three stocks without regard for capitalization. so all three equal weighted. and if you were to draw a trend line, we could see it is quite orderly. in fact, at no points that really gotten that extended. the way this kind of thing ends, typically, is either through a blow-off, or a stall and a roll. so as long as it maintains uptrend, the presumption is it could do that. and we'll get to those who could be cautious and there is every reason to be cautious.

if this is a five-year chart and the three stocks equal weighted as of a year ago made no gains relative to the s&p. so all of this has taken place in the last 12 months. that is the period. so steep ahead of the market. the issue is, have we either gone parabolic or have we rolled? no. i think this has more into it. and this is the control mechanism for the market. this weekend, the market is over. >> so carter, i'm just curious, why do you combine the three names. when you separate them, do they look any different separately. does one look stronger than another. >> we know that netflix has pulled back the last eight weeks so it doesn't have a fairly extended period. and the steep being amazon. but these three names, and there are others, as we know, that are collectively supporting the market. so long as that is going on, the market's health has to be called in question. >> that is exactly your point, dan. >> well, yeah. carter and i, we're brothers from another mother. and we know a lot of this stuff.

>> simpatico. >> it is a big word. >> but i want to make one point. listen, we've seen this before. we know how it ends. you can't have this sort of weak breath without the market broadening out at this stage of the game. we now how it ends but it is a matter of when. >> carter, when you say there is a little bit more to go. what do you mean by that. because that rollover looks dramatic. >> if you could picture amazon for the next four or five weeks has been sideways and netflix has pulled back. and this stall is a function of the two stocks make nothing progress. the only one extended day-to-day is activision. so the presumption -- and it is not three, it could be 30. this is the message of the market. and it has been the message. and ultimately this is where the market will die. >> carter, thank you. and carter will be back later on for another chart that you won't want to miss. so if you look at those stocks and then look at the biotech stocks, you want to see what happens to a crowded trade when it breaks. look at the biotech. look at xbi or ibb.

they are down 33%. as soon as they broke, everybody left them. so that is what i'm saying in these stocks. is it another 10% higher? i don't know. but in the crowded names, when they crack, it is all over. >> meaning the market -- it is all over. >> the market is over and these are all over. >> is that your belief as well. >> you have to be concerned about that. i look at activision and that name continues to react and go to the upside and well above the 200 day moving average. so that all makes sense. but the acquisition they are making makes sense as well. the king digital. so they are getting positioned into mobile when they feel like they have to do something more and call of duty has been strong for them. but that doesn't mean they need to pull back. i think they could pull back many names but particularly activision because it is extended even though others have paused. >> would you rather, rather, dan? >> i know guy likes netflix. amazon or activision. >> we are talking about activision is $20 billion.

and it could be an acquisition target. i'm not sure who could buy it with a $50 billion market cap. but i stick with activision. i don't like the king deal. i think that could be -- burn a hole in the balance sheet over time. >> they have to position themselves. and there is a lot of different reasons why they did that. and when you look at king digital, i think it is 40% or 50% of the users are women. that is a segment they wanted to get themselves positioned in as well. let's stick with technology. qualcomm rallying after entering 3 g and 4 g patent license agreements with beijing and home appliance maker high group. despite today's pop, we should note it has been a rough year. shares down 31% year-to-date. is this a sign of life here? >> we've seen lines of life like this over the last 18 months and it is -- the starting around the stock at $85. every time you see a move like

this, it is thwarted in a week or. two and they have a tremendous balance sheet and it is not a ridiculously expensive stock. the problem is they can't get out of their own way. how do you trade the stock? you are of the belief, maybe this is it, give yourself off the recent low which i think is $45. it is short-lived but you have something to live against. >> does anybody think qualcomm will end 2016 higher? >> i do. i'm long of call spreads in february. the report in late january. i think the licensing deal with china corrects one of the big issues that held the stock back this year. so yes, there has been $100 billion of semi deals announced this year. and i think qualcomm with $30 billion in cash may get in the game or be an acquisition target. >> they have an amazing balance sheet. >> and i think the activists have been patient, patient, patient. will they be for another year? i would say no. that will press the stock higher as well. still ahead, deal making in 2015 hit a new record as mergers

and acquisitions top $5 billion. who is top next year. the traders will name names after the break. and shares of u.s. steel are down 70% this year but one trader is making a big bullish bet on the stock. we have details on that trade later in the hour. much more "fast money" straight ahead. our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. my drivers don't have time to fill out forms. tablets. keep it all digital. we're looking to double our deliveries. our fleet apps will find the fastest route. oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. ahh, you're good. i like to bake. get expert advice for your small business at att.com/small business.

welcome back to "fast money." despite a record year for m&a activity, shares of the bio firms have been tumble. take a look. all are down sharply year-to-date. so why the disconnect. mike santoli is the new york stock exchange with the story. what is with the sector. >> this is one of the hardest hit market groups in the last six months. probably because these firms have been sidelined in the $5 trillion m&a boom this year. lbos has not been a feature of the market. that is the bread and butter for the firms. but they are also reliant on strong credit conditions. we know the high-yield market peaked months ago if not a year ago and charts like the jnk exchange rate fund are telling you exactly that. so it seems as if the cycle is working somewhat against the firms even though they have been doing the right things.

they have been gathering assets, sitting on dry powder, waiting for good deals and they have been disciplined in not participating in bidding wars and buying up companies for the sake of doing new deals. but the public markets don't know how to value these businesses. whether they are, in fact, going to be worth owning over the course of a cycle or just dead money for now. so all of these things working against this area. maybe it means the stocks are bargains. they certainly screen out as looking fairly cheap. maybe, eight, nine times next year's expected earnings. many of them pay out high cash dividends although they vary the dividends due by the harvesting of gains from earlier transactions. so it is not so much you could rely on the deals. but they are there. so it is interesting to me that you have these high-powered deal-makers, unable to get their own stocks moving. >> have any of these companies, mike, made bad bets, so to speak. do they have overexposure in energy. they went nibbling in that sector too early and they have stuff on the books that investors might not like.

>> it doesn't seem that that is really the case. at least across the board. now fortress has had well-publicized problems with investments and the whole division has gone sour. the public hedge fund area was shuttered more or less, the macro hedge fund strategy. but to me, it is not so much that. i don't think you could point to something that blackstone has done particularly wrong during this period. it is much more about the market not liking the fact that, look, they are just harvesting management fees right now. they have a lot of their own client's money sitting there and it is not as if the growth is really being put into place. and the market, interestingly, also doesn't want to pay these firms for the embedded performance fees that are out there. >> and what is the bottom line? what is the thing that moves this market, the ability of these companies to ipo some of the stuff on their books? >> that is another part of it too. they have been making some good exits from the 2005, 6, 7 deals they made.

and maybe the ipo market is not strong for them to get premiums. if the high-yield market does recover, i do think they will get a lift. also some players like oak tree, which is a specialist in invest distressing, this might be their sweet spot and you had the founder coming on cnbc and maybe that has a tail wind going into next year. >> mike, thank you. >> thanks. >> mike santoli from the new york stock exchange for us. and which one of these do you like? >> none of them. and the market is right. maybe you get a rally. but if you look at these, you mention the exit strategy. if they are doing a deal today or the last year, they need to say in four or five years i'm going to exit. can i get out of this and the market is saying they can't. and i would watch out for these. and another one that is private equity is black rock. that is trouble as well and i would sell that one right here.

>> pete? >> i would go something away from the direct questions you love to give me. i like goldman sachs. they trade like private equity. they are trading at 11 or 12 times earnings so i think that is a name, because of who they are and where they are involved right now, i think that is a good name. >> and jeffries last month was a terrible indicator. and everybody thinks they are a trading shop. how are they going to generate new revenues? >> and goldman sachs, you look at their stock and it is trading at the 180 level and that is a buy area for the stock to get back up. >> i'll make a better point. >> how do you know it is a better point? >> i would say -- >> make a point and we'll judge if it is better. >> we're talking about exits. look at how dell had to exit its private deal. they had to do a very convoluted deal to buy eoc with a ton more debt. if you think we're in a rockier period going forward, the exits will be more difficult in the next couple of years.

>> that is a good point. i think that was helpful. >> far more superior. >> great, dan. >> and blackstone -- >> if you think oil has bottomed, you buy blackstone. if you over lay the charts, you will notice within a month or so, they were over layed. there is no such thing as coincidences. >> all of this deal making got us thinking what could be hot in the m&a market next year. so pete, what company? >> i'm going out on a limb and saying it is tesla. >> tesla? >> and they have cash on their sheet and working on autonomous cars and in project titan trying to get into the electric world in terms of vehicles as well. you look at them, $31 billion, that is the market cap of tesla. and you look at the giga factory and look at who is running it, tell me that guy, right now, elon musk, won't look great some day when tim cook steps down to

become the ceo of apple. >> so you think he sells tesla now -- >> and comes on a board. >> apple? apple buys tesla next year. >> yep. >> wow! that is a big -- >> there you go. >> hey, man, that is a big call. >> go big or go home. that is what we used to say in the gym. >> b.k., could you top that? >> i will top it with a name that has been a dog for me and recently starting to pop up, blackberry. i think this year you have the possibility -- you don't even need an m&a in this one and they are turning this one around and john chan has executed the plan. the software is coming along. the new phone on android is working very well. >> who would buy it? >> i would say apple. >> i would say the koreans. >> or samsung. anybody who wants to. also, remember the software package, and i continue to say this, the cuneism, that is in every car. no matter if you are google play

or apple car, that is in every single car. >> dan? >> i would say hewlett-packard, that is the good one with meg whitman. five times sales and $50 billion in sales i think cisco could take a look or private equity. >> gee? >> sales force. it would be probably a $70 billion deal and the valuation is ridiculous. but you know what, if ibm didn't waste $35 billion buying back their own stock and did archiving and put their stuff in the coffers, sales force wouldn't be that ridiculous for them. because they need something. it won't happen. sales force is a buy without it. but that would make sense for them on different levels. >> is this a call that will happen. >> it is not going to happen. it won't happen because they are not -- they are not creative enough. >> yuros. >> coming up, carter worth is standing by with the mystery chart with the one s&p winner this year that is not a tech stock. we have the detail next. you're watching "fast money" on

cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back to "fast money." we know you couldn't get enough -- enough of carter braxton worth, so he is back with the one top ten s&p 500

performer that is not a tech stock. so we are all on the edge of our seats. >> we know it is expedia and individualia and amazon and google. there is one name, a top ten performer and half of the beta of the market. hormel foods. about 22 million cap. and it is a nice steady uptrend. and steady uptrends are beautiful. you could do that forever. but when you start to do that, that is when promise starts. we're so far above trend, that to my eye i think you will check back and close the gaps. it closed around 80. if you are long take profits but try to short it. but what has gone on is this -- as the inputs have come down, chicken, cattle hogs, you could see it here, the stock has started to take off. and could that last? we think it is priced for perfection, technically, you could call it expensive this way, or you could get into funny mentals. here is the price to sales. it is 2.5 times the s&p is 1.8.

here is price to earnings. the s&p is 8 1/2. so you could look at it this way and technically. take your profits if you are bold and try some shorts. >> take profits or short. carter, thank you. anyone interested in shorting the maker of spam. >> you take about the para bock move and when they anouksed a -- announced a stock split. they beat on eps and missed on revenue. i'm with carter braxton worth. >> but you fry up that spam and put it in a sandwich. >> delicious. >> big in hawaii. >> huge in hawaii. switching gears from spam to steel. those stocks taken to the wood shed this year. some traders think one name may have found a floor. and dan, what is the action? >> letter x traded two and a half times the call volume.

a lot was with -- was in one trade. they sold the calls and bought 6500 of the january 9.50 call strikes. it is 40% short interest. if there is any demand uptick, this will rock and roll. but again, you want to look out -- these look dollar cheap and expensive in volatility terms. >> all right. up next, the final trade. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

time for the final trade, pete. >> we're starting to see the move in some of the casino stocks. i think wynn goes even higher. think we test 80 soon. >> beakers? >> a low money trade. it is trina solar. they have to do something about it. china exposure, solar. >> and i think you could short mcdonald's and looking for a cover down at 105. 104. >> you don't like the mc-pick. >> i'm going to apologize for calling you short. >> you're of average height for a woman in the united states, that is 5'5"-ish.

but here is a stock breaking out. thermo fisher, science. the ceo is speaking next week at a goldman conference. >> i'm melissa lee. we'll >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends, i'm trying to save you a little money. my job is to teach and coach you, so call me or tweet me at jim cramer. nobody, i remember, nobody likes to be disciplined. they don't like to be admonished. and they don't like to follow the