it seems like spiegel is focused on whether he could maintain the $16 billion valuation in the public market. guys. >> julia, thank you very much. >> could revive that sleepy eye market. >> we're going to be here again tomorrow. we hope you are too. that does it for "closing bell." thanks for joining us, "fast money" coming up next. look at those mobs here in times square. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square. i'm melissa lee. the traders are tim, david, brin kelly and guy adami. tonight on fast, airfares are cheap and we mean really cheap. and the reason why just might surprise you. co-founder of kayak takes us inside the airline wars. and one investor had a losing trade after another. carl icahn, could the activist be losing. and stocks may be down. but we have the top sign that says the market is about to rip higher this year. we'll tell us what that is.

and while it might look quiet in the market, with one day left in the trading year. look at the oil stocks. crude ending lower by more than 2.5%. and exxon, chevron, b.p. that got hit, closing out the day at the session lows here. what are we seeing here? a rotation at the end of the year. >> we pointed that out last night and that is yesterday to those on the metric system. the oil was down after the api report of build. and then the doe report, again a build and people weren't expecting that. and production is flat looiped at 9.2 million barrels a day. so you are not seeing the reduction in production with the rate count reduction. now people are expecting that, they are piling into exxon-mobil, chevron, the big happen energy names thinking they could weather the storm the best and if oil bottoms, they would rocket off. when oil started to turn, you had to get out of them end of the year and that is what happened today. >> and you pair that off with

the comments from the saudi energy minister said unrestrained output is a fine policy and we see no reason to change it. >> it is starting to work. you are starting to see bankruptcy and change, u.s. production by the end of december will be down 500 or 600 barrels year-over-year. it gets to a place where it might be working. chevron is $90 over the last two to three months. it is a sharp-tooth recovery or bottoming process but it is happening. and if you look at the trades working, refiners are one, they may have headwinds that change that. the best in the market, occidental, net cap, 17%, you could buy that right here. you don't need to see rally oil to see this -- >> tim says it is a bottoming process. do you believe that. >> i don't believe that. saudi arabia will continue to pump until they can't any more. iran is a wildcard.

i think they will bring in a tremendous amount of supply. and look at the oil stored off shore. we have a massive supply issue and we are not seeing demand pick up the way it needs to. >> and we associate the geopolitical risk with prices going lower and that is the move you are seeing on the back of the geopolitical stuff which is another conversation. but in terms of big-cap oil, chevron at 27 times forward earnings in this environment i think is too rich of a stock. exxon at 21 times forward earnings. too rich of a stock. i understand why people are buying them in anticipate of crude bottoming at these levels but with that said crude has been $36 for quite sometime. market doesn't give you a long time to sell the topper and this time buy the low which means in my opinion -- >> you don't need to buy the low. >> if crude were to print the levels that b.k. thinks between 25 and 30, you could see oxon trade off from 8 to 10%.

>> i absolutely don't think it is getting to 25 or 30. but if it does -- i can't argue with the pain that will cause. because when i talk about an eog or a pxd, these are companies that break even at $50. and the list of the items on this set, they have said conservatively. we are talking $52 conservative analysts. >> let's bring in fidel gheit. we are been having a number of conversations. so i'll pose a question to you. are integrated too risk given the uncertain in 2016. >> well, it is basically quality and most investors obviously could not go to the slower companies because they are down about 43%. some of them are down by as much as 78%. so it is the lesser of two evils. if you want to be in the energy sector, you don't want to be in a small cap company with high debt and higher operating costs. you would wand to be with an

exxon or chevron or any of the other companies, at least you collect the dividend while you are waiting for the price to move higher. >> the saying that they are the less of two evils, that is saying the you are in the evils. with an equities analyst, are you in a position to not recommend stocks, stocks you cover in 2016? >> actually, outside of the refining companies, we only have three outperform. bp, apache, and oxideoxidental. all of the other are reflecting over 70% oil and i'm not telling my investors to wait for the $70 oil to come by. >> good for you on that, fidel. in terms of the refiner, they were the one bright spot in the oil patch in today's concession. you think investors should be tempered in their expectations. >> absolutely.

this group outperformed the market and s&p 500 significantly over the last four years. and in 2012 on average they gained 79% on 2013, the average about 36%. and this year the average about 43%. 24%. that is compared to other companies or stocks down 44% and the larger integrated oil companies are down by about 18%. so you could see, it is the only bright spot in the dismal industry for the last two years. >> fidel, it is brian kelly. you mentioned dividends waiting, we could be looking at a situation like the banks had in 2008 where they are sitting on the asset, depreciation and now we are looking at oil. are the big caps safe in the dividend area. >> i was talking to chevron a couple of weeks ago at the analyst annual function, and he

said i won't be the ceo that will cut the dividend. i do believe that the dividend will be safe. these companies -- i company like chevron has been paying increasing dividends for the last 28 years. they are not about to buckle under and cut the dividend now. i mean, for all intents and purposes, these companies have very strong balance sheets. they could buy another 20 or 30 or $40 billion and stand the storm and wait for the rest of the industry to come down very hard. and it would be taking out companies or assets at 10 or 15 cents on the dollar. so the staying power will require them to honor their commitment to shareholders and for that i'm absolutely sure that that is a thought priority. having said that, if we see $40 oil for another year. all bets are off. >> great to hear from you. faddel ghiet. only three outperform in this

universe. speaking volumes. >> the capex cut down next year and they are opportunistic and pay the dividend. refiners are the safe trade in the outperformers are the extra product. the spread over wti which is something that totally worked to their advantage because internationally they get the same price. now that that is overweight, these things are selling off and continuing to sell off. they are switching midstream to downstream. heavy capex and i would stay clear. >> you called faddel the man on a few different occasions so what do you -- or dah man. same thing. >> he is outspoken in his reviews. in the space, if you have a perform, you have to have a outperform. but i like what he said he is not willing to put his clients into the trades yet. i think that is aggressive in this environment. and i think that tim's point, the refiners are up again today, but that trade might be getting

late as well. all of the points he made about the spread. to me there are fewer and fewer places left to hide and make money in the energy space. >> crude getting closer to parody. and you look at valero and 58% of the production capacity is closer to the u.s. golf. they will buy brent and crude and it doesn't matter and their margins are less impacted. the risk to equities right now, i look at a bigger risk are the bankruptcies we're going to see. less about the up and down fluctuations in crude. it is the bankruptcies that will change everything. >> and the bankruptcies and impact on high yield. >> and that is the systemic rest to the rest of the market and that is where the have the s&p 500 having problems. up next, oprah affect is sending weight watchers stock soaring. what oprah has to say that has wall street so excited. >> and chimerix is surging as steve cohen takes a stake. we'll take you behind the details on his position and what it means for the stock.

and a rough year for carl icahn. whether there is any chance for a turn around in 2016. much more "fast money" right after this. sure, tv has evolved over the years.

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so every time i tried and failed and every time i tried again and every time i tried again has brought me to this most powerful moment to say, if not now, when? >> wow. >> good question, oprah. that was the new weight watchers commercial featuring oprah winfrey. and check out shares of the weight loss company spiking 20% as it rolls out ads in the u.s. this week. shares of the stock are up 245% since oprah signed on as spokesperson and took a 10% stake in the company. guy? >> yes. >> where do we begin. >> listen, there is no better activist, clearly, than oprah. the oprah winfrey-effect is unbelievable. undeniable. some of the times to me is a little bit unsavory. >> why? what is wrong with the timing. >> you lost your appetite, if you may. >> yes. >> but that is a really fabulous

term. >> the announcement of a partnership, the subsequent tv ad which pulls at all of our heart strings, granted, has gotten the stock from a 12 hand toll a 22 handle. so it has clearly benefited her a great deal. as it should. but be warned, this is not a cheap stock at all. probably trades close to 30 times forward earnings and a monster short interest that everybody is going to get crushed in and will continue to get crushed in. but to foray into these levels is a fool's errand. >> let me get to the other side of that. while the returns are large, you have a place where the move into more of a lifestyle brand, a healthier kind of this whole phase that is getting all of the other companies more premium valuations is something i would be scared about because if i was a short folks. valuation, no. but oprah, to me, since she's been on the air and just started to talk about an aggressive campaign and this is part of it, you've seen the on-air traffic

to the site continue, this is a lifestyle brand, it is not about fashion. it is about people losing weight. >> that is for sure. she'll continue to be the spokesperson and come out with these type of commercials and guy is right, the oprah winfrey effect is unbelievable. you don't have to fade this. if you agree with guy saying it is too expensive but do not short this stock. >> and it is a seasonal period for the weight loss companies. >> and oprah with the short interest in the stock from a trader's perspective, and i want to take the other side to this. >> you want to buy it? >> i want to sell it. i want to short it. they are saying not to short the stock. don't get in front of the freight train, which i would agree with in a normal circumstance. this stock had too big of a run. there is no way you step in and buy it here. i would look at it as maybe -- >> with that type of short interest. >> at a point. >> at a time. >> not right now. >> pre-oprah -- >> but i think you tart to fade

it here. >> the turn around price is to turn around the company. and they had a third quarter beat before the rope raw takeover took hold. so this is part of just a turn around and add oprah on top of it, i'm not buying the stock tomorrow but i'm scared to be short. yahoo is shedding assets ahead of the highly anticipated reverse. josh has the story in san francisco. >> yahoo is looking to possibly unload a big piece of land in santa clara, california. the company paid $106 million for this site in 2006, according to the silicon valley business journal when says the company struck a deal with the san francisco 49ers last year to use it as a parking lot. now in a statement to cnbc, yahoo is saying, yoov owns approximately 50 acres in the city of santa clara with entitlements to build roughly 3 million square-feet of office

space with the active real estate market in silicon valley and considerable interest having been expressed in the property, we are exploring all of our options, including a possible sale. this news coming at a critical time for yahoo. that stock in free-fall, down more than 30% this year. yahoo recently suspending the spin of the stake in alibaba. instead focusing on a spin of yahoo core and yahoo japan. one solution might be to sell yahoo core. and the business could mech as much as -- could fetch as much as $8 billion. melissa, back to you. >> josh, thank you. what is going on with yahoo? >> it tells you management, they will list to any individual that comes forward with a good offer. and they are getting that. and they are starting to sell off noncore business. but i'm long the stock. it is very, very frustrating. but to me this is an asset play. and because i'm quite bullish on bob's over all model, it is a

stock that -- sell the core, is exactly why you want to be here. and verizon to buy the core, how could you avoid at least the concept of that making sense. and that is a reason to be in the stock. >> what do you think about how tim is managing his trend. >> managing the trade, i would have been out of already, no question. but i think he's absolutely correct in his thesis here. i do believe there is a tendency to look at value at these levels. and extracting value from asset sales, it is the only way they will extract any value out of this company right now, quite frankly. >> but are you going to go out and buy the stock because they sold a parking lot. >> definitely not. >> not a reason to buy it. >> but that is the new story today. so my story is don't go out and buy yahoo because they are selling off a parking lot. buy it because you think they will get value out of the core. i would be in alibaba for the long-term play. >> you're in agreement. >> i'm agreement, if you are

bullish -- and tim would agree with. and yahoo has proved they don't want to get out of its way, between $33 and $35. there is no catalyst to get the stock moving so far. >> management. >> that is what it comes down to. let's get to news here on chimerix. moving higher in the afternoon session. meg tirrell has more on the story. >> melissa, that is right. just seeing news coming out that point 72, the steve cohen investment fund has taken a 5.3% stake in the company. kate kelly has tried to find out more about the stake. they declined to comment. they don't comment on their positions, she tells us. it is not clear about the timing or the thesis of the stake. on monday the stock lost 80% of its value after a late-stage clinical trial failed to meet its goal. this is tressing a anti-viral drug drug which is designed to

prevent infection after a stem cell transplant. that was expected to be positive. and it missed the goal and the company lost most of the market value. now a lot of folks have basically wiped out all of their sales for this drug or at least morgan stanley estimated a billion dollars in revenue and now bringing that down to $200 million. and coming out saying maybe that is not appropriate. there could be a path forward here potentially in kidney transplant and we should get more data and clues as to that in february. and the traders on monday said maybe this is a potential opportunity here, however disappointing that data was, melissa. >> meg, thanks so much. it is a fascinating story, because i remember watching the stock fall during the day. megan, you and i were talking about how analysts are starting to value this failed phase three drug and what you do with it. and now .72 steps in. it is an interesting move. >> and we're trying to ascertain, people at home try to

figure out when would 72 get into the stock. >> at 80% fall. >> and you have to figure out in terms of the volume of the stock. they trade a couple hundred thousand shares typically a day. so how you could accumulate a position of this magnitude. here is a stock that traded 55 million shares over the last three trading days. so my sense is, and i don't know anything. but my sense is that stake was accumulated over the last three days and if that makes you want to enter into the name -- but to say they bought it higher, i don't think that is what happened here. >> we talked about when meg was over here giving that dissertation. she should could there be revenue attached to the other product and i think dan said it was $7 and it was worth the trade and that is potentially what could be occurring here. >> when you look at the stock -- citi downgraded it, jp morgan, and these are dcf. which you are throwing darts. you do look at cash.

princea dovo fear may have other applications, including the kidney, which is giving zero balance. if you look at cash, not a bad place to step in. >> the thing you do have to recognize, who bought this, the quick traders, they could have bought this three days ago and getting out tv no-- of it now. so be careful of that. the co-founder of kayak weighs in on where he is seeing the cheapest airfares in the space and how you could get in on the action. i'll melissa lee and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, firz in business worldwide. here is what else is coming up on fast. >> that is basically how billionaire investor carl icahn is going. we'll take you behind the names giving him the most pain. and if there is any chance for a turn-around in 2016. plus -- >> that is why her hair is so big. >> and we have some secrets of our own. ones that could lead you to some serious profits in 2016.

the secret sign the market is about to rip higher. all of the details when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money." thanks in part to low fuel

costs, major carriers like units and delta are dropping fares. the "wall street journal" noting the cost fares are down by a whopping 24% on average this year. let's welcome paul english, the co-founder of kayak. paul, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> you've been in this industry for quite sometime. who you have noticed in terms of the pace of the discounting this year. is it different from past years and do you anticipate it will remain this high going into 2016? >> it is kind of an exciting time for travelers. as you were saying earlier, with the lower cost of fuel that major carriers have competed against the low-cost carriers so we're seeing good deals out there right now. >> and the concern was that low fuel prices would allow airlines to expand capacity. and we had the low-cost carriers

like spirit expand hubs at dallas and that caused them to drop prices and caused the major carriers to respond aggressively with their own price cuts. when you see this sort of capacity expansion, how long does it take to work out of the system and that is a roundabout way of asking how long with the airfares remain in tact. >> a couple of things will happen. one is what happens with the price of fuel and how many airlines have sort of bought fuel in advance. so we have to see what happens with that. and then also how long it takes them to just add capacity. planes are flying pretty fuel right now and we are seeing big differences in fares. i did some searches this morning, flying round trip next week from chicago to new york, on spirit was under $100. on delta, at the high end over $200. so there is a big difference. but we are seeing major hubs where the network carriers exist. they are getting more and more competitive at the low cost carriers.

>> and at the recent investment day they said they'll have a savings on fuel. we know that dynamic. what about what you did or what do you or the disruptive nature of technology, is there anything that investors get out of world war world -- in a world where technology is bringing cost down in every nurse. what are you doing to make it possible for travelers. is that a place where we could expect more. >> one thing out of the advertised price, keep in mind the full price in terms of extra fees for baggage, et cetera. and sometimes you see a big difference there. spirit, we just talked about, comes out with low-cost fares but there are fees for paper tickets and early check--in, assigned seats and check in baggage. and you need to look at the cost. and websites are starting to show that information. and the oeshl thing ien -- the other thing is what is the quality of service. which airlines have great planes

and have great people you want to work with. and there could be a big difference between the aggressive low-cost carriers and the larger network carriers. >> paul, thanks for your time. >> thank you. >> paul english, kayak cte and co-founder here. let's trade the airlines. we have ben, the ceo of spirit on a number of times. and that is the root of the problem, this is what everybody feared this year, capacity expansion. >> that is the risk in all of the names. is that they start to expand capacity. we saw a big selloff in these names. if that is not offset by lower fuel cost, that is a problem. for me, look at delta. that looks like it is breaking out. but it needs to hold $50 otherwise i would be worried about buying it. >> and i look at a company called save, and ellen becker said they are growing into the business. roughly down 38% year-to-date. and i think the article in the

journal this morning was misleading. they talked about pricing at the low end. american airlines response to companies like s.a.v.e. is to give reduced rates on a certain number of seats within the airlines flying to regions or hubs where they have a destination. there is only a certain amount of seats they are releasing at that price point with zero perks. so upgrade fees and all of that involved. so i don't think it is super accurate the way they described it. i will say this is a thing going on for quite sometime so i don't think this is new news. >> i would like at priceline. when the evens in paris took place, i thought priceline would trade down to $1,000. but it held in well. they came off a good quarter. the stock was lousy. but the stock is not that expensive. mark ma haney covers this. >> ma haines. you have to say that when you say his name. >> well i did. >> you have my back.

i appreciate that. $700 price target and had a series of highs or lows and i think it gets up to $1,200 if you own the stock. the one chart that could cause serious pain for the new year. and we'll tell you what that is. and behind the bullish bet one trader is making behind tesla and what that means. e sup.

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welcome back to "fast money." a down day on the street with stocks closing near the low of the session. the s&p 500 falling 1% and the dow dropping. energy was the biggest laggard. in the second half of "fast money." tez shares get a boost this week. why one trader thinks the good times will continue for the stock. plus, the s&p 500 is hanging by a thread as we head into the final trading day of the year. but we've got the secret indicators that would set the stage for a major rally in 2016.

we're giving you that key information you need to know. but first, it has been a tough year for carl icahn. shares of the billionaire investors enterprises down 33% in 2015. this is the big energy holders have fallen sharply. this is not just a decline in ipe, this is a multi-year low for the stock. >> right. and quite a few of the commodities holdings that he has, melissa, are suffering right now. just to go through a couple of them briefly, cheniere energy, suffering badly. down 48%. and then we have -- this is a commodities play, not energy per se, freeport-mcmoran down 71% and chesapeake 78%. two out of the three names we know he's taken a behind the scenes stance on. freeport, the executive chairman just stepped down. that will have impact. people in the industry are concerned about that and whether

that troubles the indonesian investment. and carl icahn has said on air, he will stick with it. he didn't foresee such a strong leg down. it may come back again. one benefit that he has, even though he's down 2.8% as of the end of the third quarter, per usa today and other reports, is that he doesn't have to worry about redemptions. after all, his hedge fund, his money, family money, so that is not necessarily a problem. but obviously nobody wants to lose money, least of all someone like carl. >> he has made a couple of investments that really have led us to scratch our heads here on the desk. freeport-mcmoran was one of them and then xerox. we are wondering what is his thinking. >> he struggles with the secular vision here. because again, when you are talking about xerox or freeport, the deal with freeport-mcmoran, the jim moffett inspired deal that looks cloudy, it is great he could push for change and get it. but so what. if you are actually in a place

where you are in an industry that has changed probably forever, and at least in a fundamental long-term basis. so it is just -- this is the case where i think people know his vote means something but we're wondering whether he's making the right picks. >> and two points i would make on that, one, we like to talk about energy on our air. i certainly love to talk about it. the miners are worse off, freeport-mcmoran being a good example of that. but on the energy side, lng, cheniere has surprised me. he keeps buying more and more and even after adding people to the board and the resignation and the company has had a bad year but a multi-year run-up. it is a bit expensive. they are about to start liquifying natural gas and exporting it at a tough time for that commodity. we'll see. it must be a long-term play. >> talk about his stock. does he talk about the stock and his performance. mel said it is at a 2 1/2 year

low and zeenism now trading 60 bucks-ish. and you hear no rankling about the performance of his stocks until recently. >> this is a holiday week and i reached out to him today and wasn't able to connect. i don't know what he would say at this point. on the hedge fund side he is probably feeling comfortable. but on the public company side, it is an issue. and i know they've been defensive about it and said, look, we're going to stay the course. but i think investors want to hear more than that. >> kate, thank you. >> thanks. >> kate kelly on that. what is your take? >> i mean, i have two takes. one ipe, carl owns 90% of it. not much will happen there. i would love if bill ackman take a stake in that. that would be fantastic tv. i would watch it all day long. and i look at his picks. and i wonder if brett, his son, has to do with apple and netflix and the big winners that tend -- they are tech, they are not in the areas that carl has been very vocal in. so i think it is interesting to

look at it that way. >> he is also not as involved in -- biotech had been a winning vehicle for him in years past. he lost a lieutenant in his fund a couple of years back and he was a specialist and sat on the biotech boards he took stake in. and that went away. >> and backed off of that. and you bring up apple and netflix, he got them initially but talking apple up $200 plus a share for a long period of time. netflix he sold way too early. i think he sold when the stock was in the 60s. i could be wrong. but i look at his veems and i know -- investments and i know he has had a short in high yield. and legging into the equities at the lower valuation, i agree with tim's point about it but structurally defunct. the freeport of the world and the commodities based companies. there is no catalyst and pricing is in the toilet and will stay there. >> you have herbalife and paypal, some of these have been stories out there because there has been a question about the

underlying business model. not in paypal's case. that is one of the best stories. but this is portfolio stocks and in aggregate not doing well. but the apple call, it looks like he was piling on. he probably wanted more change than the company is willing to admit. but between him and david eye horn, they to do things and that is bullish. >> and declining oil prices and beakers said there is more pain to come. so it is final for the chart of the day. beakers will saunter over. >> i will saunter over. and so what i'm looking at is the russia ruble. and why you might say why anybody should care about it and you should care about it and i'll tell you why. this is the ruble and under that is the emerging market eem. and the ruble tends to fall just before the eem does. so it is a leading indicator for us. and you may want to look at the chinese and the r&b. and that is weakening.

and you send to see the currency moves before stock markets move. so if you are in eem and want to buy china, i would suggest you don't. i would suggest you wait for this thing to really fall apart. if you see the yuan and the ruble crashing to new lows, then maybe you want to start dipping your toe in. eem is 26% china, the other rest of it, another 10% to 15% is taiwan, south korea. so it is entired to that area. and in china, when they devalued, the s&p 500 crashed. so if you are an investor watch what is going on in the currency markets and in particular this breakdown right here. >> he is so chart. he was so hot, he blew up the smart board. >> it short kirk you theed. >> so brian is making up a good point. who is more pain right now than russia. they made changes to the government. they brought back a guy that was very unpopular which means they

are in more dire straits. so 2015 was the worst year and that the worst is over. i would argue that if you play the eem, brian made this clear, it is all asia. that is 60% asia. russia is 5% or a little bit less. if you are trading the eem, 33 to 36 is where the trade the range. we're at 32, 32.5. 31.5 is the low. 7.60 is what it equated to. that is a multi-year low that bounced every time and i wouldn't bet against that. >> we have a news alert on lockheed martin. let's get to seema mody. >> they have been awarded by the pentagon a multi-year deal, a $1.1 billion deal for a total of 32 erics which does include c-130 j milt plains. we're looking at shares of lockheed martin, if we pull up the chart, i believe slightly higher on this news. melissa, back to you. >> we'll get that chart. there it is. seema, thank you.

guy adami, defense stocks. >> we've been bullish in defense stocks for a long time now. lockheed trades at what i deem to be a reasonable multiple. 18 times federal earnings. it is probably 3% off the all-time high. you get a decent dividend. tremendous tail winds and i think lmt is the best in breed. >> and still ahead, santa claus doesn't rally in the month, and there is a secret signal that could show a major move for the stocks in 2016. that is up next. much more "fast money" straight ahead.

welcome back to "fast money." if history is any indication, this could be the secret signal that stocks will jump in 2016. paul hicky is co-founder of bee spoke. he is here with figures that could make you bullish about the new year in equities. paul, what is this that we are looking at. >> i can't believe i'm telling everybody on camera here. but so looking at this year, it has been a disappointment of a year for equities. but when you put it in perspective of the high yield market, which has been crushed this year, equities have done very well. you look historically. the high yield market goes down

year-to-date and in four of the five years the high yield market declined. there is only one year we're on pace for what we are doing. where high yield is down and equities are up. so that is great trivia. but so going forward to the next year, it is what happens next. so when you look at high -- years where high yield is down, there has never been back to back years where high yield market has been down two years in a row. so every year, we've seen a major bounceback. high yield average is an average of 30%, median 22%. so a strong gain. or 28% median. so equities, they are also riding the coat tails because they are positively correlated. so equities have seen a moodan return of 22% in a year following a down year in the high yield market. so while they treaded watt they are year, they held up very well. and in the year following high yield and equities tend to do well, the four best years for high yield going back to 1987 all came after a down year. and in equities, again, average four out of five times positive,

but then looking at the equity market, the s&p 500, small caps have been up following a down year in the high yield market. so small caps, which have been under pressure this year, and part of 2014, could be due for a bounceback. >> this is obviously calendar year. >> calendar year. >> roll over and high yield started in 2014. >> right. >> which t starts much earlier. >> when oil started to roll. in july. >> exactly. and so high yield has been crushed more than the equity market because energy has a much higher weight in the high yield indices. and when you look at the low quality stocks, they started underperforming toward the second half of 2014 and underperformed all year. the most heavily shorted stocks have done horribly this year. so if this bounceback in it the high yield market does occur, as it historically has done, you would expect to see some of the lower-quality names regain steam after an 18-month hiatus. >> and we get that and these are

fascinating correlation but when you take a look at what is in the high yield index right now, does that make you think we are going to see another down year next year because of the weighting in energy and the fact that so many people are forecasting that oil prices will stay -- there won't be a huge rebound next year. >> the energy portion of the high yield is crushed. anything commodities has been crushed. other areas have held up relatively better. and you look at how much is priced in. that is why there is buyers and sellers. we are forecasting a high amount of bankruptcies. we are seeing that come in. and some of this will be priced into the market going into the year. and when you see the headlines of the bankruptcies coming in, that is when you start buying the sector. >> paul, good to see you. happy new year. >> you too, thanks. >> nice calendar. >> it is great. >> basically what paul is saying. >> energy is going higher. ultimately, this is, again, these things are so correlated. the other side is if you look at the history. was it happening at the

beginning of a fed cycle. >> he said nerg is going higher. >> when i hear the correlation of high yield selling off and the energy selloff and they've been toe to toe and because energy is spilling in other places, you are ultimately saying if it is going to rally back and energy has found a floor and coming back. but think about the credit markets. think about the fed. this is the start of a fed cycle, that is a bigger issue than we've seen. >> i don't think you could touch energy here. i think he is trying to say and alluding to, is that high yield will rally but energy need to purge first. you need to see the bankruptcies before you see the high in the equity. >> and this is a brand new segment. we're looking at an etf that has a single move, with assets of $500 million and cannot be a leveraged etf. and so today down 2% and this is gold balls down $7 from a continued pressure from a strong goalar and guy making a bunch of

gold calls. >> i thought i had it right a couple of weeks ago. i thought they turned off the fed announcement, maybe the dollar would have a counter move and a knee-jerk reaction to the upside. that is a big move, given the commodities didn't move at all. i understand the tape was loudy late in the day. but still 2% move in gdx is not good. i think there is a shot for rally -- for gold to rally but each passing day i lose more and more hope. and tesla could kick into overdrive in the final trading day of the year and we'll explain why after the break.

welcome back to "fast money." after 15 years, toys "r" us are closing the flagship store in times square for good today. the retail said rising rental races and increasing online competition is some of the reason they are not renewing the lease. so we sent guy adami out to check out the iconic store one last time. >> it is me. i'm out in front of toys "r" us, it is the last day of operation. we are going to find out what

folks are doing on this december 30th, 2015. >> do you know that this toys "r" us behind us is closing. today. >> i just found out. >> really? >> yeah, i knew it? >> how do you know that. >> i think someone told me. >> does your mom shop in the stores or online? >> in the stores. >> online. >> why is that? >> no crowds. >> um, actual stores. >> i usually go online. >> in stores. >> that is what i'm talking about, sister. you have to buy one gift, one toy, what would it be? >> legos. >> some legos. >> and a hoverboard. >> shop-kins. >> i don't know. >> right on. >> what would you buy? >> for him, some xbox games. >> what are you going to tell them to buy you? >> a nerf gun. >> what is your favorite tv

show? >> "fast money." >> of course. "fast money" fans all over the place. >> "fast money" gait game set. they sell that. >> one of the big sellers. >> in the impulse buy lane. >> that is shocking, by the way. very sad. >> yeah, for new york. especially here in times square. tesla shares are up more than 3%. some are saying got times to continue for the stock. mike kuo has the action. mike, how are you? >> well, thanks. this is typically not a busy week for options trading. but it did show signs of life in tesla which the stock also showed signs of life there. basically we saw two times the average daily call volume. it was mostly weekly call buyers spending small amounts. the most active were the buyer of the weekly 240 calls and spending $2.60 and bought over 7,000. that is the bet the stock rally could continue through the close tomorrow. >> thanks for that, mike. coming up next, the final trade. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.

wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

final trade. tim. >> i think you could sell tesoro on this weakness. >> seaberg. >> stay long in large cap, ibb is the way to play it.

>> beakers. >> i will flirt with disaster and buy the refiners, psx. >> molly hatchet you are wearing. >> come on. >> get you done. >> i'm melissa lee, we'll my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to makes friends i'm trying to make money. my job is not to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or of course tweet me @jimcramer. anybody who has a high school diploma has almost certainly taken a course in chemistry, course in geometry, some physics probably and a host of history