so more of a fizzle than a bang as far as the european markets close to 2015 is concerned here. and some of the -- well, the so-called santa rally that we had in recent sessions is being taken back by these declines across and hard really to pull out too much opportunity at this point, i guess, if you look at the portuguese market right down on that bottom right hand corner. the psi 20 suffering i guess a more moderate sell off than those other exchanges but of course volume relatively light between holiday trading days. so what does that mean as far as the last u.s. session of the

year was concerned. well the indications on the futures is still that we might get out of the gates in positive territory. it does look as though it will be a coin toss as to whether the s&p manages to finish the year in positive territory. as far as the year to date is concerned on the s&p we are just about in positive territory on the full year but as i say a coin toss at this stage. given this weak european legacy. bangs have been clear sector leaders. the nasdaq to be under pressure

to demonstrate some of that out performers today on this last session. where are we on oil? it's been an interesting last few trading days as far as oil is concerned. but as far as the wti quotes. we are modestly higher on wti here. but some of the latest information we had on supply indicates that there is plenty of the stuff around. let's switch over to the brent quote. if we could just do that. $36.66 barrel on brent. belgian authorities cancelled a new year's eve fireworks display in brussels over concerns about a terror attack. they're not the only city taking extra security precautions. bill neely has the full report. >> across europe police are on

high alert. in belgium two men have been arrested for planning suicide attacks in this historic square. due to the filled with new year crowds. authorities cancelling fireworks citing a terrorist threat. in turkey, more arrests after a suicide vest and a backpack filled with explosives were found at an isis safe house in the capital. two men suspected of planning a new year massacre and in paris authorities are scaling down celebrations, cancelling fireworks, fearing a repeat of november's attacks. in london too, security is tight. >> police in london considered a terror attack highly likely for the past year but based on new intelligence they have now doubled the number of police officers on these streets. >> the threat is real. this british couple was jailed for life today for planning suicide attacks in london.

they tested explosives in their backyard. they were isis supporters radicalized like the couple in san bernardino that carried out their attack. europe tonight is a continent on edge. >> how are you going to spend your new year's eve around the world? there's in fascinating traditions. let's aquaint you with a few of those. big square in the center there. you have the red underpants. that may look peculiar but apparently in turkey it is a tradition to wear red underwear for new year's eve. dinner for one is a tradition in germany. it's an old black and white english program that germans now watch every new years eve. how about your own personal one?

get in touch if you'd like to tell us how exactly you're intending to spend your new year's eve. squawk box europe and cnbc.com, you can get to us on that or come to us through worldwide exchange of course. new york city police commissioner says the department is, quote, not aware of any threat at this time that we deem credible. never theless, the nypd will fan out around 6,000 offices throughout the times square area where over 1 million people are expected to gather to watch the ball drop. chris is there live from times square for us chris, tell us what's going on right now as these preparations are being made.

>> good morning from times square. this is the roads of the world as they call it. there's a lot of activity going on right now. mostly preparations for the large television broadcast going to happen tonight as we approach the new year but over the last several days the nypd has certainly been out and trying to get this area. it's going to be completely locked down. we have been told there will be large barricaded pins all the way from the giant crystal ball that you see dropped on television. almost all the way up to central park and as people start to arrive for tonight's festivities they will be checked with a metal detector and then they will be put into these where they can't leave. there's no large backpacks, no large bags. things of that nature. police say they'll have 6,000 officers here including 500 members of a new counter terrorism unit just formed over the last several months. now once inside you'll see that counter terrorism unit inside the center of times square.

there will be specially trained officers with long guns that will be staged about 50 yards away from the 14 entrances to the times square area. that's in case any sort of terrorist tries to breach one of the 14 areas where you can enter into times square so over the next several hours we'll start to see some of the billion spectators supposed to come out today and they'll start filtering into this area. it's an unusually warm new year's eve here in new york. we're already in the mid 40s for temperature and so nypd expects there could be a lot more people than normal that turn out on a night that maybe isn't quite so warm. >> chris, thanks for that. with us live from times square in new york. bill ackman may be ready for the ball to drop on 2016. he had a rough 12 months he disclosed on wednesday that the

flag ship hedge fund is down 19.7%. that would make 2015 the worst year for the firm. that's even worse than in 2008 during the financial crisis. his profits have been eaten away by a bad bet which is down 28% this year. most edge funds are feeling pain. the average loss is about 4% so far in 2015. still to come on the program, has the era of banker bashing finally come to an end? at least as far as the u.k. is concerned. the financial regulator here has made a call on new probes on bankers that may indicate things are changing. we'll have more on that when we come back. stay with us.

let's take a look at the headlines. u.s. futures pointing higher as the s&p 500 hopes to stay in the black for the year. puerto rico defaults on a small portion of its debt due january 4th but will pay its most important obligations and uber is celebrating it's 1 billionth ride since the company launched in 2009.

weather wise it's been a challenging close to the year in missouri but water from mississippi river spilled over 9 federal levies. that's 11 million facing significant distress. this according to the u.s. army corp. of engineers. the town of valley park has had mandatory evacuations as water rose to the roof tops of homes and businesses. flooding in missouri and southern illinois has killed at least 21 people. grain prices soaring wednesday as floods shot waterways from illinois to missouri sparking a surge in physical prices of corn and soybeans. meanwhile, hundreds of people have been evacuated from their homes across the u.k. as storm frank continues to swamp a region already beset by record

breaking rainfall. thousands of homes lost power and 64 flood warnings across the area remain in place. pwc has warned that the latest flooding from storm frank could push total losses to over 3 billion pounds. in the last half hour, bp confirmed it has now fully evacuated it's valhall platform in the sea. this after a barge began drifting toward the installation following a storm. a spokesman says production continues on that flat form. meanwhile a stat oil rig was partially evacuated when a massive wave hit the platform in the northeast. one worker died. three others injured. the norwegian oil and gas company says the rig is now moving back to land and the evacuation will continue via helicopter. let's talk about the banks. the u.k.'s financial conduct

authority, the fca has scrapped a proposed review into britain's banking culture. the regulator planned to explore whether bonuses and other incentives have contributed to past financial crashes. in a statement the fca said it will be working with banks on a one by one basis to review their cultures rather than launching a broad brush review program. banking stocks stateside underperformed in 2015. the s&p 500 financial sector lost 2.5% but how will these banks do next year? kayla has the report. >> they changed their products dramatically. in 2016 they'll up the ante to make sure that their long time customers and investors don't flee to competitors. here are predictions.

shareholders will see more capital returns. the fed kept a lid on buy backs and dividends after the financial crisis but they're getting a better handle on the stress test lobbying the fed for adjustments to let them give more back to investors. as earnings improve look for pay out ratios to rise too. banks will stop trying to build their own products and will start buying other companies. northwestern mutual bought learnvest to gain a foothold in millennial investing and as wall street realizes it's products are out of vogue expect lending club square and even paypal to be in play. blockchain is going mainstream. the number of companies exploring payments that bypass both consumer and central banks is growing exponentially and becoming more than just a fast nation. by the end of next year, block chain can become a major way to pay bills or settle trades. >> there you go. the 2016 playbook for the u.s.

banks. but let's focus a little closer to home here in london and across europe as a whole. lauri joins me. associate managing director for european banking division at moody's. thank you for coming in on this new year's eve program. let me start by asking you a broad brush question about the general health and outlook for european banks for 2016. >> we expect that solvency will continue to improve. has been the case over the last few years. the main challenge for european banks is profitability. the long period of interest rates. it has been a main issue and we expect this will continue to be an issue during 2016. although the asset quality

issues are starting to abate. but while interest rates stay low and our expectation is that will be for awhile longer, the banks will be challenged. >> it's been disappointing how slowly the banks have actually disposed of nonperforming assets and it appears to be still a drag on the bigger growth story for europe that we have still got a trillion euros or so of mpl sitting around on european bank balance sheets. >> well, yeah, i mean, this is a major issue. the new formations is starting to slow. the poor countries have not experienced the same level of non-performing loans that let's say the u.k. did or ireland did.

and so that's a positive but these are still nonearning assets so that hurts profitability. >> focussing on the u.k. for a moment, fca coming out and saying that we're going to back off this broad brush probe. does that mark a change do you think now in the relationship between the banks and the regulators. what significance does this announcement have for you? >> well, of course that just broke today but as the fca has said they're going to continue to focus on these issues but on a bank by bank basis. we have observed from our own discussions with the banks and the monitoring that we do at moodies significant changes in risk governance. incentive structure and front

office people and investment in compliance and controls. but changing culture takes a long time and imbedding cultural change takes a long time. uniform concept across retail banks, challenger banks. does not necessarily have significance, right? so it's not to say they're taking their eye off of this issue but they're going to focus on a bank by bank basis. >> do you get the sense that there's clear leadership emerging in the new strategy? what we have seen is a sort of juggling going on here as banks have looked to investment banking and advisory as against retail as against wealth management and as you look

across europe you see a rejigging of strategies to embrace or reduce to a larger extent one or more of those strategies at the moment. are you getting a sense that any of the plans being executed by, in my m cases new leadership teams are paying dividends? >> it's too early to say. some of the new leadership teams have been put in place in the last quarter or the last six months and the plans that they have layed out in the case of let's say deutsche and credit suisse will take a few years to execute. the plans in our view are credit positive for bond holders. so it's like going through surgery. you have to go through the surgery and then recover on the other end. so there will be impacts on revenues, profitability, as t

particularly the banks with the large capital markets divisions try and right size, reduce their leverage, improve their returns on capital and assets. >> nothing seems to generate as much correspondence as conversations about european banks and there's a lot of potential buyers of european bank stocks that are just waiting to understand whether capital robustness is there now in europe and whether new capital requirements are going to effect profitability for these organizations going forward. many of these banks look good value but if there is no improvement in revenue or profit growth going forward then maybe it's a value trap still. >> well, profitability is the main issue.

as i mentioned before that for european banks in general profitability is an issue but for the global investment banks in europe, in particular, they have been very challenged in the new regulatory environment. not just what has come already but what they're facing in the next few years with further, what is referred to as rwa risk weighted asset inflation as well as the league operating environment to generate an adequate return on capital and assets. so reengineering plans have been in place for the last few years. what we have seen in the last few months going back to what you were referring to before and revisiting of the business model. >> so pain continues for a little bit longer here. >> yes. >> nice to see you. thanks for coming in. associate managing director for european banking at moodies.

let's give you a run down of what to watch this trading day. weekly jobless claims out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. new filings for unploilt expected to rise slightly to 270,000. claims have been below 300,000 for 43 straight weeks. at 10:00 we get the december chicago pmi. that's a precursor to the ism manufacturing index out next week. we're going to squeeze in a break. we'll be right back.

welcome back. now serving more than 1 billion rides a short trip on honda marked the 1 billionth ride since '09. so celebrate uber is going to reward the lucky passenger that's been identified only as marvin that he will get a year of free rides or the equivalent of 10,000 pounds. his driver will get a free trip to any city where uber operates and it's in more than 360 cities in 68 countries so gives him plenty of choice. microsoft plans to start telling users if it suspects state sponsored hackers have tried to break into their e-mail and

cloud file storage accounts. they previously provided alerts without providing specific details about the perpetrators. the new policy mirrors those adopted by gook and twitter. google issued warnings about state sponsored attacks since 2012. >> bill cosby has been charged with a decade old crime. the 78-year-old comedian was arrested on wednesday and appeared in court to answer allegations he drugged and sexually assaulted a woman less than half his age at his home near philadelphia in 2004. cosby had no comment to make as he was released on $1 million bail. this is the first time he has been charged with sexual misconduct despite years of allegations by dozens of women. cosby's attorney expects he will be exonerated. >> if there are any old or perhaps a bit less scandalous tv

stars and programs you wouldn't mind seeing again you may be in for a treat. go to our website and find out how streaming cites could revolve your favorite cut tv shows. the last time we looked at the u.s. futures indicated positive to the start of the session but in some of the shortened trading we get in europe we are, as you can see on the boards here in negative territory. so it will be interesting to see whether we get much of an adjustment in the expectations for futures trade in the united states. we're going to take a break. we'll be right back.

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>> no fireworks on the final day of trade. european stocks fall at the open after the major averages in the u.s. close near session lows. mandatory evacuations across missouri as flooding of homes and businesses claims at least 21 lives. officials confirming puerto rico will default on some of its $1 billion of debt obligations on january 4th. that sends a number of u.s. insurance stocks indicated

lower. and no new year's celebrations in brussels. the city cancelling it's fireworks this evening due to fears of a terror attack. >> so let's get back to the debt repayment story. puerto rico will skip repayments on part of its debt january 4th. which will be the second default in the past few months but the territory will remain current on its most important general obligation debt. it will pay the $313 million due on monday by tapping reserves. defaulting on this debt would have been seen as a more serious move since those bonds have the strongest legal protections. we might be weak on the european markets but the u.s. futures still have us edging just into

positive territory but as i pointed out before on the program, it will at this point be a coin toss as to whether we end up positive for the year as a whole on the s&p. the european markets, well, the action on the ftse which is a half day trade here down, what? 0.16% just sitting around that 6,260 level. we have bigger losses elsewhere. obviously the spanish market struggling at this stage. we're off three quarters of 1% there. and most of the other markets somewhere between the two. as far as the asia session is concerned of course the nikkei was closed. we did get some trade though on the chinese stocks. the shanghai composite if the director could kindly give me a board we could take a look. can we have a look at shanghai?

my friend in the gallery who pushes the buttons? do we have that? can we show you that? we'll pop it up in a moment here. thin trade today as far as the many of the asian markets are concerned. the nikkei and the korean market were closed. the shanghai composite in spite of making gains here today up nearly 9.5% is closing out the year on a weakish tone. >> should we have a quick look? this is a market that doesn't truly represent the state of the u.k. economy. we do have positive growth in the u.k. but the ftse 100 which this board represents is primarily made up of what financials and commodity companies which have been relatively weak across the year

as a whole, therefore you end up with something that looks like 6,200 rather than 7,200. the slow down in china has impacted many corners of the markets this year. not least commodities on the equity front has been one of the worst hit. morgan brennan crunched the numbe numbers. >> it's the second worst performing sector of the year and it's no wonder. many are impacting miners and metal producers and others within this sector including slowing growth in china. since china is the top consumer of many commodities and chemicals we crunched the numbers to see how materials performed when there are signs of weakness in the world's second largest economy. we looked at how the sector trades one week following the people's bank china cut to interest rate or reserve ratio requirement. it's done that 13 times since

2010 and while the broader s&p is flat one week later the sector is down on average nearly 1%. you can see that right here. now the names that tend to fair the worst, eastman chemical company, that traded lower 85% of the time and averaged a 2.5% drop. the mining giant also fell about 2% on average. it traded lower more than half the time and alcoa tumbled over 1.5% on average. that's traded lower about three quarters of the time. so as we head into 2016 many analysts expect head winds from china to continue to pressure the material sector. they warn that chinese fixed asset investment will be weak again next year having, quote, profound implications for most of the mined commoditiecommodit particularly copper and iron ore. back to you. >> unsurprising the energy, the worst performing s&p sector this year. it's down nearly 24% year to

date on the back of the weakness in oil prices. among the best performing sectors, health care and consumer discretion nary which are up 6 and 9.5% respectively. let's just take you back to this energy story as it relates to these riggs in the north sea. particularly the norwegian quadrant of the north sea. conoco phillips, the latest company to tell us there are problems with the weather. it is partially evacuating staff from its field and the others will also be shutdown. minimum staffing at the platform and just an update on the

earlier snaps we had. that's a full evacuation now taking place and norwegian media is reporting that production is being stopped at the platform. so poor weather conditions are taking their toll on those operating in the north sea. it's the dawn of a new era. the first freely traded u.s. oil exports in 40 years could be set to ship out as soon as today. landon dowdy has more from cnbc's headquaters. landon. >> hi there, jeff, good morning to you. conoco phillips and new star energy aren't wasting any time lining up their foreign oil exports. they could finish loading as soon as today what they think would be the country's first export cargo of u.s. produced light crude oil in 40 years. conoco and new star jumped ahead of enterprise products partners which last week said it would load the first shipment of u.s. crude in houston during the first week of january.

on december 18th president obama lifted the long standing ban on u.s. oil exports put in place in 1975 following the opec oil embargo in 1973 and 74. the first shipment could sale from stock as early as today. conoco phillips pumped the oil from the formation in south texas. one of the country's most actively drilled spots for oil and gas. the dutch oil trading power house is buying the oil as well as the cargo from enterprise products. the company has a subsidiary that owns a refinery in switzerland. it's well equipped to start loading cargo for export. it invested more than $10 million over the past decade. to expand it's pipeline system in south texas. a major part of this is the north beach terminal which can store up to 1.6 billion barrels. they have access to the docks at the port and will be able to lower oil on the ships at a maximum rate of 90,000 barrels

per hour. back to you. >> thank you for that. the u.s. government then to impose fresh sairngss against a number of companies and individuals over iran's ballistic missile program. that according to the wall street journal. this would represent the first set of financial sanctions imposed on iran since the country reached the landmark nuclear agreement with the u.s. and it's allies back in july. the sanctions are said to be in response to iran's violation of a key un security council resolution by testing a ballistic missile in october. still to come on the program, u.s. officials leave a sour taste after they open a criminal probe into ice cream maker blue bell creameries. we'll have all the details when we come back. looking for 24/7 digestive support? try align for a non-stop, sweet-treat-goodness hold-onto-your-tiara, kind-of-day. live 24/7 with 24/7 digestive support. try align, the undisputed #1 ge recommended probiotic.

you get used to sweaty odors you think it smells fine, but your passengers smell this... eliminate odors you've gone noseblind to for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip break out the febreze, and [inhale/exhale mnemonic] breathe happy. authorities cancelled the new year's fireworks display in brussels because of fears over a terror attack. bill has the story. >> across europe police are on high alert. in belgium two men have been arrested for planning suicide attacks in this historic square. due to be filled with new year crowd. authorities cancelling fireworks citing a terrorist threat.

in turkey, more arrests after a suicide vest and a backpack filled with explosives were found at an isis safe house in the capital. two men suspected of planning a new year massacre and in paris authorities are scaling down celebrations cancelling fireworks, fearing a repeat of november's attacks. in london too, security is tight. >> police in london considered a terror attack highly likely for the past year but based on new intelligence they have now doubled the number of police officers on these streets. >> the threat is real. this british couple was jailed for life today for planning suicide attacks in london. they tested explosives in their backyard. they were isis supporters. radicalized like the couple in san bernardino that carried out their attack. europe tonight is a continent on

edge. nbc news london. >> let's take another look at our headlines here. u.s. futures pointing higher ahead of the last day of trading in 2015. the s&p 500 hoping to stay in the black for the year as a whole. puerto rico defaulting on a small portion of its debt which is due january 4th. the country said it will pay its most important obligations and uber celebrates it 1 billionth ride since the company launched in 2009. so let's talk with bob, the chief market strategist -- apparently we're not going to do that now. we will catch up with him after the break. let's squeeze in a quick commercial break. we'll be back with you in just a moment while we get our ducks in a row here.

>> new york city police department says they're not aware of anything they find credible. meanwhile they will be in times square. they're expected to be in that area where over a million people are likely to gather to watch the ball drop. let's catch up on the latest preparations there. chris is live from times square. >> no other city in america does it quite like new york city in preparing for major events. with unusually incidents they're

expecting upward of a million people to line the streets to watch that giant crystal ball drop to ring in the new year. so the nypd says it will be bringing in 6,000 police officers here to the times square area. among those 6,000 officers 500 are part of a new counter terrorism unit. they'll be equipped with long guns and body armor. they'll be stationed about 50 yards away from the access points here in times square where people will be coming in and checked with a metal detector and they'll be standing in these pins and won't be able to come or go. that special tactical unit will be situated near the 14 access points to times square and they'll be watching for any potential terrorist that might try and barge his way into the times square area.

>> there's bomb sniffing dogs and radiation protectors and they're doing everything they can to make sure that this is secure but there's no specific threat despite what we're hearing out of europe. no specific threat for the times square area tonight. and to not be afraid to ring in the new year. >> chris from times square. a tenth suspect has been arrested in connection with the paris terror attacks last month. the national was nabbed in a raid on. we also want to bring you the latest. the federal prosecutor says six people have been detained. this as part of the investigation into the threat of a new year's attack.

so six people now detained as the federal authorities there investigate the plot to attack brussels on new year's eve. >> you'll know that the authorities in brussels cancelled the fireworks display that was intended. let's take a look at today's headline stories. the u.s. justice department opened a criminal probe into ice cream maker blue bell creameries. the company recalled all of it's products in april after ten cases were linked to a lysteria contamination at its plant. several people were sick. three later died. the government is trying to determine what blue bell executives knew about the lysteria in it's plants and products and what they did in response. blue bell ice cream since returned to stores. it's official 2015 not a great

year for ipos in the u.s. according to renaissance capital 170 companies went public this year. that's down 38%. meanwhile, proceeds raised dropped a staggering 65%. health care dominated with 78 deals followed by tech with 24. some of the topper forming ipos include shake shack. spotify and fitbit. so what lies ahead for us in 2016? >> i think you have to look for cute names don't you? that's going to be the key. what you're really looking for is three major themes. one is going to be is the fed going to do more? are they going to stick to the dot plots. do they have any chance of

getting to that 3.5% target rate which i don't believe they will. you could possibly see one more rate hike potentially in the second quarter. then you're going to have to see a bit of a slowing because the u.s. economy is still going sideways for the most part and i believe that will happen. you'll see some stabilization. we saw the eia numbers yesterday and again there doesn't seem to be a reduction in the crude supplies and then the third thing is we do have an election next year and i think from the standpoint of the pharmaceutical sector if the democrats can get the presidency and maintain the presidency you might see a little bit of pressure on the pharmaceutical companies. hillary clinton has been outspoken about that sector. >> do you think americans should keep money close to home or is there an argument to be made

that you take your money to europe or asia on central bank policy divergence? >> that's a great point. i think you do take your money there. i think you take a lot of money to europe and quite a bit of money to china. big moves in shanghai. they out performed in the last six months of the year versus the u.s. and versus europe and that's going to continue. shanghai is going to be very very aggressive. people's bank of china has been. they seem to learn from some of the mistakes and they put the money at least where it's going to help the equity markets and asset markets and i think that people are underestimating what the ecb is going to do. they're not going to be doing much more in the way of qe but mario draghi has been forceful in saying he'll do what it takes to get the economy going on the right track. >> and on the currencies, you stay with the dollar? is it a dollar long story as the fed looks at possibly two to four rate hikes this next year?

>> i think that's a bit of a crowded trade at this point. you'll see some stabilization. it's more rhetoric at this stage. i don't believe the fed is going to have the data to move four more times. potentially too. but i put my money on one so i think that trade is going to get a little less crowded. i'm not necessarily sure that you can out perform in that trade. >> bob, nice to see you. thanks for your time, sir and happy new year to you. chief market strategist. before we wrap up the program, let's take you live to where they are just about to set off the fireworks there. the countdown begins to 2016. where ever you are in the world everybody, have a great new year. i'm jeff cutmore thanks for watching. squawk box coming up.

closing the books on 2015. a sideways year for the s&p. should be fun to watch today. could be up or down for the year based on what's happening today but bets on tech stocks paid off big time but not apple. your playbook for the new year straight ahead. terrorism, front and center this morning again. brussels calling off it's new year's eve celebration due to security concerns. meanwhile here in new york over 6,000 officers will keep times square safe and cities across america are on high alert. and after a year of sexual

assault accusations bill cosby has been arrested and charged. the full story is ahead. it's december 31st, 2015 and squawk box begins right now. ♪ >> here we go everybody. right now in new zealand it is almost new year. and there it is. happy new year everybody. it's the world's first major city to ring in 2016. there you see the celebrations taking place. the fireworks. brand new year. gave you a quick run down of other major cities celebrating this morning. it will be midnight in sidney australia at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. tokyo, japan, seoul, south korea at 10:00 a.m. eastern time and th