think that china is what you need to be watching here. both in the short-term and the long-term. and in the long-term, earnings. that is a very telling thing for us. >> and it all ties together. thank you for joining me. carol, mike santoli. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" does start right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square. i'm melissa lee. the traders on the desk. tonight on "fast," apple shares briefly falling below $100 a share. what is going on in america's biggest tech company. we talk to the ceo of a key suppliers to get the inside scoop this hour. plus the collapse in commodities has everyone nervous and one company could trigger a major market credit event. we'll tell you what it is and why investors are so worried. >> if you can't take the heat. get into three stocks. the three that do well in a turbulent market. but first. the s&p 500 closing below 2,000

and the dow off to the worst three day start to a year since 2008. the s&p is 7% from the highs. so are we looking at another correction? guy. >> yes. i thought we would see a bounce on monday. i still think we'll see the bounce. i think the level to bounce to is 2020. we touched it on monday afternoon or tuesday. but i have to tell you something, there is a lot of structural damage done to the market and now there are extenuating circumstances. and what is going on in china. i don't care what anybody said, it is not good. and the same people that explained how important china was as a growth engine a year ago are discounting it and you can't have it both ways. it is a big deal. >> we heard so many people today grasso say the volume wasn't there. is that such a big deal? people say that when they don't agree with the price action. >> it doesn't matter about

volume. guy always said that. the 2020 level, that is the 100-day moving average. you look at charts, we're rolling over convincingly. i hope we hold support around 1959. that is the notch retracement level. we test the lows. 1867. i'm still long. does it hold? that is the question. that is the question we're going to try to answer on this desk. does it hold. so b.k. says no. i'm staying long my core positions. but on a day like today, you have to look at it and say, do i still want to own apple? do i still want to own disney? >> and oil of course, in the equation here. >> and to me it comes down to the economy. we woke up this morning with scary news out of north korea. but it had nothing to do with the market. it is not a tradeable event. but if we look at the economy and the yield curve, we're below 120 basis points for the first time since 2008 and the

lowest -- or flattest since 2014. that is telling you there is economic weakness. pmi numbers, economic weakness. even the feds own numbers, the atlanta gdp is showing 0.7%. but for a couple of inventory adjustments, you are in -- call it 17 or 1 times next years earnings and you are looking at correction. i don't think the levels hold. i think we go through the august lows. overshooting it wouldn't surprise me to see 1620 on the s&p 500. >> after monday's selloff, karen, you said that felt orderly. did it feel differently today or did you think that was orderly? >> it wasn't kryzcrazy. if you look at the vix, it wasn't crazy higher. i'm nervous. but for banks, the two and ten-year spread you are talking about, but there was flight to quality that makes that spread look flatter than it would be in a north korea-type event.

but i do think that there is still pockets of stuff that are pretty u.s.-centric that i find attractive. so we talk about the retail space. i don't think that is really -- it is not a china story. so i'm comfortable having exposure in that area. the one thing to me that was odd was the fang strength. they sold off and came back and ended up kind of fine. i would have thought that if the market was really headed down you would start to see the air get really quickly go out -- >> don't you think that is a matter of portfolio managers don't know what to do in this environment so the first couple of days they wind up doing the attack selling, dan nathan pointed that out. >> no, tax selling had to happen next year. >> no, they didn't want to take the profits. >> you are talking about gain. got it. >> so if they take the gains now, they have a year to right those off or acquire them. now you start to see, do they buy the laggards?

they did it for a day. do they continue to do it? i think they don't understand the market place and go back to what is working. >> so do they continue to do -- i don't care what they do. what do you think? >> i think you stay low on the bond market. the japanese tenure below a quarter of a percent. that is recessionary deflationary, bond market still works. i think netflix showed its colors today, on a lousy tape, look at what netflix did today. tremendous news for netflix. and i'm telling you, you want to be long amazon into the earnings release, i think it is january 26th. you have to pick your poison at this point, because we are in the same camp that the broader market is dicey here but i think amazon will surprise people in earnings. >> just how dicey. there are sim lair ates to 2008 and we talked about this earlier today and this is very interesting. you mentioned the yield curve and the spread between two and ten. the smallest since 2008, what

else happened in 2008? we had a commodities crash. that is what we're seeing right now. what else happened in 2008 that is happening right now? walmart. walmart for the year is up 4% in the first three trading days of 2016. in 2008, it also had a gain. this may seem simplistic to people out there but we thought we would raise this because it was an interesting parallel. >> it certainly shadows. are we going to have another global calamity like in 2008? maybe not. but we could have a slow-running bear market where the global economy goes down in a slow fashion, quarter over quarter. but you want a couple of other tells. look at something like patterson dental. that was a name back in '08 during the recession that had a tough time because people stopped going to the dentist. that is the canary in the coal mine. if you see a bad report on patterson dental, that might tell you something. >> the first time it has been said. >> as an indicator for the market. >> and if you are british, there

is no indicator? >> now i'm in trouble. but with that said, that whole continent over there in europe -- >> i don't want to drag them through the mud here. what do we do in a market like this, quickly. >> i think you have to go to utilities. go to safety. everybody likes the stocks that act like bonds. you have to go to yield and search for it and stay with utilities in the unknown environment we're in. our next guest has a simple message for investors, sell until the s&p 500 hits 1900. rich ross to find out why. rich, what are you looking at? >> i'll tell you, melissa. the calendar may have changed but the game is still the same and the name of the game is china. which after patterson dental is the single most important macro proxy we have. we brought with us a chart today to compare the s&p 500 to the chinese yuan. and we've inverted the chart and you could see the symmetry. and we devalue that currency in august. and what happens?

three days later, the flash crash, the 10% correction. we ultimately get stabilization and the market finds its footing. what happens in november. the s&p 500 rally runs out of steam along with the currency. so the two are trading together. and it gets even tighter when we talk about crude oil. the charts are virtually the same over the past six months. that is why you care about that chinese currency and about china. and one more, the transports, clearly in a bear market, down over 20% from the highs, this is not a good sign for the broader market. once again strong correlation with the yuan. and back at the s&p 500, how i would trade the market in here. importantly, we did test and hold key support at 1990. that is your prior resistance on the double bottom base breakout. and that becomes support. sentiment has shifted in binary fashion. it is still early. ultimately, once again, we are selling those rallies. even if you got a little bounce off of support, you want to fade that. we see a break below that

support, and boom, we think just as steve said earlier, you retest the lows and work 1900. that is the big, round number. let me show you why i like the 1900. here is the long-term weekly. this is the 150 week moving average. it is defined the trend for the last five years and that comes in right here. 1900. it is the neckline of this entire two-year pattern, below 1900 we're all in a world of pain here. and at a minimum, i think we test that 1900. we could cross that bridge when we get there. >> rich, in a world in which you are recommending that investors sell to 1900, could you still see the fang stocks trade higher? >> you can. look, in a world where there is very limited or slow growth, the world is going to pay a premium for growth and innovation. where do you find that? technology. bio technology. so that could correct along with the broader market but ultimately when the market finds its footing they will go back to the stocks that display signs of being able to grow in an environment without growth.

>> and if we don't hold 1900, then what? >> well, look, if we break below 1900, i don't want to sound hyperbolic, but we take the height of the pattern which is 2130 at the high, 1930 on the low end, that is a 230 point pattern and projection that down over time from 1,900 and brings us around 1670. and that would represent a 20% cyclical bear market decline off the top and within the context of historical norms. they don't happen all of the time. we are in a six year bull run from the 2009 low so to get that correction, it has happened before and it could happen again. but like i said, let's cross that bridge when we get there. a lot could go right and wrong between now and 1900. >> that is one scary bridge. do you think we crossed that bridge, grasso? >> i think there is a lot to tell at 1867. if the market does not hold, i think there is no reason why it would hold any time lower. so i think you could see the 200 point handle to the downside. >> in a world, and this is a

world that you live in, that b.k. lives in that we are headed to probably 1,900 and maybe even lowerer. >> i think 1620. >> in your world, can fang stocks continue? >> no. i understand why they are up. you have the low and slow growth world. you want to buy growth. i get that. >> but she's stocks have run so much. and as we saw in the last couple of days, when they crack, they crack hard and crack a lot. so why would you buy them at all-time highs with everything that is going on. it is not like you are getting a bargain. so for me, i don't think they hold up. i would use this as an opportunity to sell. >> >> what is your favorite movie with bridge in it. >> bridge over the river kqi. >> i don't know any bridge movies. coming up, if netflix is the world and we're living in it. and the stream giant launching and what it could mean for the stock. and one company very nervous

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welcome back to "fast money." a news alert on a shake-up at morgan stanley. to david faber who broke the story with the latest. >> greg fleming is out of the man who ran wealth management. a very important part of the business, grown with the acquisition a number of years back. fleming has been at the company for the last six years. he was the senior executive. people may remember merrill lynch helping at the very end of the firm's tenure to engineer its sale to bank of america. unclear where fleming is headed. the reason he is headed out, however, is because colm kellerher, president at morgan stanley and the ceo has been promoted. he is now going to be the president of the entire company, reporting in of course to continued chairman and ceo james gorman. and given the respect of ages of

the two gentlemen, it does appear that mr. kel her is not a potential hare to the ceo job. given that he is older than mr. gorman, the expectation that i have spoken to since the news was shared internally about an hour ago, is that there gorman will remain in the job for some time to come. perhaps until mandatory retirement which i believe it 65 so he has years to come. that news being shared with mr. fleming, did seem to prompt his decision to depart the company. again, and his unit will now be shared, if you will, in terms of the people who run it between two people. shelly o'connor and andy sapperstein will take over the management of wealth amendmen-- management. mr. gorman in the job for time to come and firmly entrenched as the president and in the likely

event something happens to gorman, you have someone to take over. and that next generation, of dan simco witz and the ceo to be potential candidates when the day does arrive that mr. gorman steps down. back to you. >> david, it is karen. let me ask you something. is this any indication of the grand strategy of margan stanley to be in the wealth management business or is it a power struggle in morgan stanley? >> i think it is more to personal decisions. the board wanted a president. they wanted mr. gorman to stay on. not that he was going anywhere any way. and when that was shared with mr. fleming, he decided, he is 52 and he wants to be the ceo of a public company and it was clear it won't take place at margon stanley. and that being you raise questions others ask of what does it mean for the future, in

many ways they pinned their fortune in, in terms of differentiating them from the model from the competitors hoping for the higher multiple from the more likely recurring flow of earnings and revenue that come from wealth management. so we'll see how they communicate around this but right now it is more about the people involved than any change in strategic direction. >> thank you, david faber, from new york city tonight. so morgan stanley, all of the banks today got crushed. because of the yield you mentioned. >> and the market. their market is correlated. so morgan stanley, i don't think this makes a difference in the story we saw ruth leave, google, she was great. but they filled the gap. and i don't think it really changes anything. >> january 19th, they report earnings. wait until then to hear what they say. you have a great quarter in terms of trading or -- it is

binary given the last three or four months we've seen. >> you are short? >> i'm short the banks. the regional banks. the wealth management division is a behemoth and a fantastic business. so that being said. at some point in 2016 you want to buy morgan stanley, it is not here. take a look closer to $20. >> if you go with brokerage, you go with goldman sachs but stay away from institutional brokage. i'm long on bank of america and you go e-trade or charles schwab. they are more sensitive to the short-term rates going higher. and macy's announcing in the last hour it will cut thousands of jobs as part of a broader restructuring to cut costs and falling comp sales for november and december. you see the spike higher in the after-hours sessions. you stepped in today, karen. >> i did. i thought the knee-jerk reaction to the news was so overdone and kind of ridiculous. the stock was trading at 36 and change. not because people thought they would meet or beat. it was absolutely clear they

were going to miss. the question was how much. it wasn't as bad as i think it could have been. and also they have a fire under them. they are not just sitting around waiting for the environment to change. they are trying to move with the times as they come. a great management team. the price here reflected a lot of bad news already. so i actually like it. i do think that the real estate -- the big bump from real estate is kind of off the table for now. >> and it has gone cold? >> the weather has gotten cold. >> it sounds ridiculous. i think that absolutely helps. i must say, up until today when the stock was down 2% on a lousy tape, monday and tuesday were great days for the stock on equally bad tapes. now it has gotten back everything it lost today. it was trading 38 at one point earlier. having traded at 35 1/2 in the after market. if this opens around here tomorrow, you do not fade this rally. i think it goes high fresh here. >> and what if the markets go down? you stick with a name like

macy's? >> i don't think you fade it. it is already down so much. i think it is a tough shore, a tough sell at these places. probably a lot priced in. i think there is more exciting things to do to buy macy's because i'm concerned about the consumer. but i don't think you get too hurt. >> in retail, where are you? >> you said it got cold. decker's, everybody rode off winter because of the ugg boots. i'm still long on the name deckerize. >> the one company that could struggle could turn into a global credit event. what is keeping investors up at night after the break. i'm melissa lee, you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. here is what is coming up on "fast." >> if you are worried about stocks, you might need more than that. thankfully, we have three stocks that do well when the market melts down. plus -- there is something very wrong with apple. and the ceo of one of apple's biggest suppliers will tell us just how bad it is when "fast money" returns.

the energy sector wrecked today. and now b.k. has noticed a

multi-billion dollar problem banks could face expose with glenn corp. this is scary stuff. >> this is the poster child for the commodities collapse. and we saw this come up in september and october where they had to raise capital. and there was a note out by bank of america they were exposed to $100 billion of glenn corp debt. they have about $90 billion in assets. but of that is inventory they use to trade around. so that could fall apart just like in the housing market when the price of the commodities -- the underlying went down, commodities is going down. so banks around the world have about $100 billion exposure. that is a big amount. and glenn corp is is negotiated the contracts to the banks can't pull away. so if they need the money, banks have to give it to them. glenn corp down 2 3/4% today and looks like it is going lower. all of this analysis was done, that glenn corp needed this money and the $100 billion was done when commodities were 15% higher. and even people then said a 5%

drop in commodities and glenn corp equity could be worth zero. so now we are 15 15% lower and we have to start looking at this. >> and what is surprising is that what glenn corp reports is adjusted debt. >> right. >> which is $30 billion. which is a completely different story from $100 billion in gross debt which bank of america and merrill lynch points out, a majority of which is unsecured debt. >> so who potentially could have exposure? b.k. talked about this. we had raul paul on this summer, in july, when deutsche bank was trading 34 and i remember him saying as clear as day there is a good chance it will trade $25 and here we are trading with a $23 handle. so it is clear there is something going on in deutsche bank because it is underperforming the rest of its peers. >> and when he brought this up, it is complicated and i tried to make it simple if i understand what is going on. we look at the credit default swaps. price of ensuring debt of glenn corp. so it spiked up in the summer.

but could you see even when the asset sales, even with the equity that they raise, the price of insurance on glenn corp is still going up. it is odd to me there is as much equity value as there is. and it wouldn't be shocking if they were to tap the equity markets once again. >> so it is dilutive. >> yes. >> and i don't see -- does anyone on this desk see a world where commodities tick higher rather than lower. >> to save them. >> i could see oil in the 30s. i could see it trading back to $20. if you look back at 2000 the wti chart, it could trade back to that level. and if you look at any oil company, emp or anything in the space that trades $20 or lower, they are in danger of going out of business. >> there is one further extrapolation if regulators use the gross number as opposed to the adjusted debt number when it comes to the stress test, that might mean more capital. >> the banks will need more.

but the key here, if glenn corp gets downgraded below investment grade, there one notch above. so if you see another downgrade, watch out for the banks. and i'm with guy. i think deutsche bank is short on this. >> still ahead, a yahoo investor pushing for a quicker sale of the business. we'll find out who the likely buyers are. and does the selloff have you spooked. well we have the three names that could save your portfolio when it feels like everyone else is running in the opposite direction. much more "fast money" still ahead. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.

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welcome back to "fast money." markets off it a rough start for the year. the dow falling 250 points today. the s&p 500 hitting a three-month low and falling below the key 2000 level. energy stocks had the worst day since september as oil hit a seven-year low. here is what is coming up in the second half of "fast money." apple feeling the heat after they are cutting iphone production. hitting a low today. we have the ceo of a major apple

supplier that will tell us st t start -- the story. and one traders bet says you could jump into the stocks. but first, where you should end up in 2016 if it is as rocky. and three stocks that do well and even when others are fleeing the market. >> on days when gio politics a big concern, many wonder what the best safe haven is. we looked for the equities that trade higher when u.s. bonds, increase in value. and found three specific names that tend to rally with bonds. first one, reynolds american, the second largest tobacco company which gains on average half a percent the day of a geopolitical event. hormel foods, the maker of spam and ray the on also likely to gain on days when bonds rally.

but check out the long-term chart. in the last five years all of these names have huge rallies as the tlt and the etf that tracks treasury prices has rallied. melissa. >> thank you, seema mody. hormel stood out to me. because it was in the top ten of the s&p 500. maybe the top five or the only nontech name. >> we had carter braxton work on it before the new year. and hormel is a name he brought up. you go back to november when they announced the stock split. it went parabolic after that. trading at 26 times forward earnings. i'm not saying you should short this stock but clearly something is going on. but with that said, this is a very expensive name. >> they have been benefiting from lower cattle prices. the cattle prices imploded. but those of you watching the sun bowl, there was snow in el paso. what else is in el paso? cattle. and sadly 30,000 died because of the blizzard goliath. and cattle prices are going up

higher. up 17% since the end of december. so hormel, watch out, that is not a safe haven stock. >> and we've seen the tlt be fairly strong and seen the run-in of these stocks so have we seen the safety trade? >> no, i don't think so. i think you will get the old idea of what is old is new. andality rhea group, smoke them if you got them. i'm looking at this but i want to wait until it backs off but i think the safety trades move higher. >> let's stick with safety. to the move of the day. and a new suggest where we take a look at an etf with a 1% move in either direction and must have assets with at least $500 million and could not be a leveraged etf. so check out the gold etf jumping a percent as global worries shake the gold market hitting a seven-week high. so finally a safe haven bid. guy, do you buy that? >> i don't know about a safe haven.

if people are looking at gold instead of a commodities, they are starting to view it as a currency. i never thought of it as a commodities. there is no end use to gold other than the beautiful earrings that you are wearing right now. and that is few and far between. >> and teeth grills. >> going back to patterson dental. >> but seemingly, it is insolated from the dollar move which i think is interesting. we held levels that we talked about before where india bought 100 tons of gold from the imf. i think the trade is higher. and so i'm staying with this one and the gdx. >> still ahead, one of the largest shape makers is the chip inside of the top names in tech from smart watches to smart cars. the ceo gives us his take on demand in the space after this break. plus marissa mayer under fire after they turn up the heat, is there a buyer out there. and bob peck is here to name names. stay tuned.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of apple dip below $100 a share for the first time since august following reports of production for the latest iphone will be cut by 30% in the current quarter.

so how are apple's chip makers weathering the latest storm. from las vegas is semiconductor ceo rick clemmer, who is one of the apple top suppliers. good to see you. >> good to see you. thank you for having us. >> and i have to ask you about apple. and you are one of the top suppliers to the iphone. is there anything from the company that indicates there could be a production cut coming? >> there is nothing we could talk about. we have agreements where we don't talk about any of our suppliers individually. we talked about the smartphone market being weaker specifically in china inc. over the last couple of quarters. so i think it is more of that. is -- but there is not anything specifically i could talk about related to apple. we certainly are excited about the consumer electronics show and the new innovations we've been able to announce here and

those are key as we go forward. >> and they are fascinating innovations. things like chips that will last longer and chips that go into cars. and i have to ask you again about smartphones. in china you supply high-end and low-end smartphone makers so where are you seeing the weakest part of the market? are you seeing it in the high-end? >> i think it is across the board. there has been some reports about the -- the sales of individual companies, some of the prime companies in china actually moving to other parts like brazil to be able to push their phones. so i think we see some of that taking place. but, knoyou know, over all, i tk growth to the middle market in china will continue to be strong. i think one of the things that we see specifically is we're trying to move our mobile wallet as a solution toward the transit tickets and we have implemented in four of the top-ten largest cities in the china the ability

to use your smartphone to be able to pay for mobile ticketing, which gives us a different avenue and a way to address the market, and be able to make life easier and also more secure with the security that we offer associated with the smartphones. so we actually see that as a growing area. and one that we see some real potential near-term in china. >> so in terms of china, you feed into so many different parts of the market in china. are you seeing any slowdown as we're weathering this volatility here in the u.s. that stems from concerns about china and the chinese economy, are you seeing that there? >> no. you know, it is really interesting. we see that demand is on course. it is not robust but it is not falling off a cliff either. so i don't think there is anything different than that. it is more of the turbulence associated with the financial markets than it is real production levels. the general economy in china as we speak. >> what is so great about talking to you, rick, is because i could ask you about so many different markets because your

chips go into different things. and we're talking about record sales here in auto and some are saying that could be peak auto. what is your take. have we seen the best of times for the car industry? >> when you look at the average age of the car, there is still a lot of opportunity. and we think the market has strong growth potential in europe. i think it is about the new features associated with it. as we move to ados and people talk about automated driving, we refer to it as assisted driving. so we just announced a new radar chip replacing a shoe-box size solution available in the market place before. so we have a combination of a chip that we actually got in a transaction with free scale as the micro controller and an rfc model front-end that gives a complete solution on a board that would have taken something the size of a shoe box before. so we could see that stemming into all kinds of applications to make driving safer, more

efficient, and ultimately automated. >> and last quick question, rick, just to switch gears away from autos, so to speak, and talking about your last reported earnings report you talked about a channel inventory build-up and that was a great concern of investors and analyst as like. are we going to see that overhang persist into the first quarter or was that a q4 -- is that a q4 work-through? >> well, so, melissa, what we said, we're not updating guidance at all. but what we said is that we could clean up most everything in q4 but there could be some specific product areas that might last over into q1 and so i don't think we're changing anything associated with that. one last thing if i could, we actually announced a new technology associated with wireless ear buds as well. with a start-up company today that uses magnetic inductive technology that basically replaced the rf technology so that it makes it safer for the body. so we are excited about that specifically in the consumer

electronics area. >> it looks very cool. rick, thank you for joining us. appreciate it. great to speak with you. >> thank you. >> rick clemmer, the ceo of an ex p semi. which had a rough year last year. but managed to finish 12 months with a gain. >> so you are in that name? i am in and out it. i'm not in it right now. and you said in october the stock fell and right now it is banging through or breaking through the retasement levels. 72 is the next support. 10% lower, it has to hold that level. but if you want to dip your toe, look at the 72 devil. >>co incidentally or not -- if you over lay an apple chart, the same thing since may when apple made its all-time high and nxp did as well. it is not expensive on valuation. the quarter was okay. the margins close to 50%. whether it is real or not, you have to believe apple will hold to buy xpi. >> and analysts like the

synergies still to come with the free scale acquisition which recently closed. >> that goes to the diversification of this company. and i agree, guy, everybody thinks this is an apple supplier but the diversification creates that opportunity here. and so $80 seems like a pretty decent level. if we break through there, i get out of it and look closer down to 70 where grasso is talking about. but this company has more than just an apple supplier. and when you walk to talk connected car, data security, you know where we're going? blackberry. b.k. is just saying. breaking news here on united airlines. to seema mody in the newsroom. >> an update on the health status of united airlines ceo oscar munoz. he has undergone a heart transplant and in recovery after surgery. he'll return at the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second quarter. guidance was for his return in the fourth quarter. that is the latest. back to you. >> wow, seema mody, thanks so

much. remember, he suffered a heart attack and then was on leave. >> yes. and there was some question about disclosure to shareholders. >> exactly. and here we are. it feels like steve jobs after he had the liver transplant and we learned about it and it was like what? >> and valeant, what is the valeant situation and how long is he interim ceo here for. >> interesting. >> coming up, activist shareholders and board members all taking aim at yahoo. what is marissa mayer's next move. bob peck lays out the next companies in line to buy the company. that is next. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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welcome back to "fast money." star board sending a letter to ceo marissa mayer calling for management and business strategy changing. there is a settlement for a yahoo takeover. bob peck has a buy rating and a $45 price target on yahoo.

now they are really under fire. they have a lot of the miner shareholders acting up and star board continuing to breathe down their throats. what do you think happened? >> we like it a lot. and the letter was pitching parallel processes. yes, you could go after the spin, but you should address any potential buyers that would maybe buy the core. and while you are doing that, turning the core around. and cutting the expenses and so we like the idea of doing all of those things to maximize the options for shareholders. >> it is crazy that they would not be doing that. that would seem like negligence. >> when the baba spin got pushed off, there was a reason investors were so concerned. and that is why star board is so vocal and an activist. >> and we like some of your predictions and they come true. what happens in the next six to 12 months. >> we think the most likely out come is the core will get sold. we think it is inevitable

because you know there are buyers lined up and you have verizon said they are interesting and jeff smith said today they have other buyers interested. and because there is moult pell potential buyers, you see a good price for the core. we said 6 to $8 billion for strategy and less for a p.e., 4 to $6 billion but enough interest there and i think shareholders don't want to go through a year-long spin. >> does that mean alibaba which has bounced up 85 a number of times doesn't matter in this eck wigs. >> i think it does. it is still a big bulk of the we are positive on baba so that will reflect well on yahoo. but the asset could also be taken care of. >> so marissa mayer, what is your take on her at this point? does it have to be that she -- if she leaves, we've all speculated that would mean a pop for itself without doing anything to the business. >> since she's been there 3 1/2

years, the revenue is down 10% and ebidta is down over 40%. so depending on the scene aero, if they sell it to a strategic sale like verizon, they have tim armstrong there. and if you sell it to a p.e. firm, they use turn-around people so they don't need her. but another strategic, she could be the president of yahoo. so she may still be around. >> and i want to switch gears and talk about twitter. a new low in today's session. what happens? steve jokingly says, well it is cheaper and cheaper for somebody to come in and buy it. >> the risk to the upside. >> but look at it. it keeps plunging. >> a couple of things. the user data and how that is trending. it has stabilized. it hasn't gotten worse. which is good to see. but the real question is the guidance. how aggressively will they be versus how krveive. and people are looking at the 1800 ebidta number but i think that will move the stock more than anything else. >> where do you stand ahead of

earnings? >> positive going into earnings. >> because the bar is so low. >> the bar is so low. least liked shares by our clients and we think it could turn the trends around. >> bob, pank you. >> bob peck of sun trust. >> you hate it to. >> they have so much opportunity in twitter. i'm still at 20% position and i dread what will next come out of the stock. they have so much potential and they haven't tapped but i do think the risk at this level -- people have said this for weeks/months, has to be to the upside. >> so it is a painful hold for you. >> it is a painful hold. >> because every day you see it tick lower but yet you hold onto it. >> i'm not going to let it go and here it is taken out the day after. i'm not letting it go. >> sort of dangerous. >> you would rather sell it at 6:00 dollars. >> yeah. >> what is your take on what is going on with yahoo and star board continuing to pressure? >> yeah. i come back to -- what could have been done with the

business? i don't know. i wonder if it is just swimming upstream and it doesn't matter who was in that chair. i don't know. i'm not long. i don't quite get it. >> gee? >> you weren't paid to know what -- she was in there for a lot of money. and she's had a lot of time to fix it. and clearly she's not getting the job done. i'm not trying to come down but it is the reality. so bob peck says $45, i think alibaba has to get through $85 for that to happen. and i don't see it doing that until they report earnings at the end of the month. >> your take? >> more positive on yahoo than i have been in a long time. only because there is a lot of positive things that could happen, a lot of negative news in this. so if you get somebody to replace mayer, that is a pop. and if the core is better than expected, at some point we were talking zero so now a couple of billion dollars number is a good upside. so you buy it here at 32.20 and maybe 32-70 as your stop but

more positive than in a long time. and some options traders are betting on better days ahead. mike kuo is in austin with the action. what do you see? >> we saw four times the average daily put volume in the vix. and when you are making bearish bets on the vix you are making bullish bets on the s&p, which is inversely correlated. specifically we saw buyers of over 40,000 of the january 16th puts that paid only a dime for those. those are bets that the vix will drop over the next 2 1/2 weeks. we're in a dangerous area. when the vix is below 15, it is a good time to buy stocks. when it is over 25, that indicates it is oversold. and that could be a good time to buy stocks. interestingly though, when you buy it somewhere between 20 and 25, you get below average returns on average over the next 30 days. so this is somebody who is making a counter-trend trade for sure. >> and mike, just for the average investor out there wondering, weathering this volatility, is it too late to buy protection? >> i don't really think that it

is. for one thing, there is two things to ensure. could you look to sell calls against position where you've seen gains. premiums are up. take advantage of that. but if you use spreads, you could mitigate the higher options premiums, so maybe put spreads in the s&p using spy as a proxy would be a good way to do that. >> mike kuo from austin. for more "options action" check out the full show at 5:30 on friday. and coming up on "mad money." when the shark meets the bull, cramer is sitting down with shark tank's mr. wonderful, aka kevin o'leary to get his take on the market. that is next on "mad money." coming up next, in the meantime, the final trade. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data

you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.

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time for the final trade. grasso. >> altria group, 2.8% yield. buy. >> beakers. >> i think you sell black rock. challenged in this market with high yield. short it or just sell it. >> chairwoman. >> i like oak. if you want to be in distressed

investing, have them do it for you. they could make you money in the difficult environment. >> gee. >> macy's. i think the price is encouraging. i think karen would agree. letter them for the third time this week. >> you . >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm trying to help you make money. i want to educate and teach and put it in all sorts of context. so call me or tweet m me @jimcramer. sometimes the market just wants to go