to get at the same kind of agreements. >> it is very tough. because it is the same kind of worker, empowerment talk that hillary clinton has right now. >> they have a lot more in common than you might think. we have to go on "closing bell." thank you for joining me. evan and mike wrapping up the week that was. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city, times square, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. our traders on the desk. tonight on "fast," a lot of people are making comparisons to 2008, including us, but there is another year that is more similar to this week's carnage and it could be a good thing for your portfolio. we'll explain. plus, in a year from now what are the four stocks you want to own. the stocks that could hold up despite the volatility. and later, if you lost money on apple, fear not. we could get your money back for less than a buck. but first we start off with the market stocks getting hammered for the third

consecutive day. both the dow and the s&p closing low and the dow has lost a thousand points this week alone. we talked about what the bulls wanted to see today. so was today's selloff the worst possible scenario for the bulls? >> i think so. i thought it would be gap opened lower and we close higher. but opening on the highs today set us up for exactly what happened. we discussed it, friday closing on the lows after the week we've seen is clearly not good. it sets up for a dicey sunday night and interesting open on mondaying. there will be openings on monday, but it is hard to be dismissive of what has been a terrible week in the market. >> we'll get china over the weekend. >> and we have china data coming in early next week which will dictate the tone. but it could have been worse. that was a strong payroll number. and i realize it is back-ward looking and people could blow holes on it, but saying the

economy is on the verge of a recession. if we prints 100,000 payroll jobs, the market would be on the verge of recession. >> we are still on the verge of recession. when you look at the unemployment report or rate, it troughs right before a recession. so we are nearing the end of this expansion. and in my view, we are nearing a recession, if not in it. >> i think what was interesting is that all this week we've been taking cues from china. so over night, no circuit breakers and they finish higher and we finish at the lows of the session. what does that mean? >> i think it means who in their right mind wants to go into the weekend. and you have no idea what will happen on sunday. if you are positioning yourself ahead of the weekend, you are foolish. let the data comes out in china and see how they react. and pick your stocks. but people there are stocks out there to buy. my job is to identify stocks in a market, up or down, where i

could provide value, alpha, drive alpha to my customers. i'm going to make sure -- look at philip morris, p.m., 4.6% dividend yield. why would you not buy that stock now. it was down half a dollar today. >> wait until after earnings side. i tend to be on your side. but we have a lot of information. if what we're talking about in the payroll number is backward looking and we are at the end of a very nice run according to brian and i think we're at the peak of gross margins. i want to hear what companies are reporting and the banks need to tell me about the trng of their -- the strength of their balance sheets and that has people on nerve. >> and look at the banks today. they led us lower. morgan stanley and in correction territory this week alone, not clouing the 20 -- including the 25 to 30% it is down for the year. >> you can't brush it by the

banks and it is not a good thing and the curve yield will continue to flatten. that is the way it is headed. the earning power continues to seemingly go down in a environment where there are seemingly less and less deals. >> i agree. but i'll tell you what, guy, we're in an oversold situation in the banks. bank of america trading at 15.15 and 15.30 -- >> based on what. >> take fundamentals out from a trading perspective, you buy bank of america here. close your eyes and buy the stock. it will trade to $17. >> come on. >> and i got heat for it on air. and it went to $18. it went to $18 and it retraced here. >> this is not a market that you close your eyes and buy everything. there is something fundamentally changing both in market structure and in the global economy. this is not a buy the debt market. this is not close your eyes market. this is a market you have to be extremely cautious in. >> with that said, how did you position into the weekend? >> i'll tell you what, i'm not as well hedged as i'd like to

be. mid-week i was -- >> so you are cautious about next week. >> i believe mond is going to be challenging like guy said. and there is a lot of fears. what can't you handicap here. and i agree with dave's sentiments. i look at bank, back to the july 2013 levels. the yield curve is misunderstood. at the end of the day what will drive the banks what you should be worried about, which is capital markets and credit markets are selling, okay. but it is not because the nims will change but monday and mid-week, i was taking options and it is a nice show after this show about that, but ultimately i was rolling options that were exploding in value, meaning they are getting more profitable as things like the iwm or the russell was trading lower, which is the ultimate correlation to a market that is under a lot of pressure. so i wish i had more exposure going into monday. >> and by the way, you could believe that there are buying opportunities and also believe that there is going to be trouble ahead for the markets. it is just a matter of whether or not you want to miss a couple

percent to the down side or upside. >> and that is why i position myself in the lovely country of switzerland. which i have been to by the way. >> what does that mean? >> i agree with what brian just said but with what david said in terms of bank of america. if you look since the beginning of 2014, $17 is the midpoint on of this stock and vacillated on the other side on numerous occasions, on the lower end of the range, he just discussed for a trade, it is interesting. >> a controversial call made right here on this desk last night. brian kelly garnered quite a lot of attention in the twitters-fear when he said this on "fast." >> so, what do investors at home do? you stay in cash. there is nothing wrong with being in cash. if you have ridden this market up from 2008 and the 2009 -- >> what happens if you are 9 cash. >> go to cash tomorrow. >> and then later on that evening, on cnbc special report

markets in turmoil, he reiterated this cash call. >> to me, i'm looking at a global slowdown if not a global recession. in that environment, stocks, very few assets will do well. and if you are in your 401(k) and you rode out the 2008, 2009 crisis, and now you're up, let's say 100% and maybe even in the fang stocks and made 100% last year what, is wrong with taking some off the table and going to cash until we figure out what is going on. i have no idea what will happen in china today. they change the rules every other day so why wouldn't i go to cash. >> so let me ask you, are you in cash and how much in cash are you and did you sell into the game we saw early this morning? >> i so -- so i made no moves into the day because i came in short. and aggressively for my clients and myself, i am short the markets. short global markets, short equities, that type of thing. so i'm not in cash in that sense. i'm kind of in negative cash, if you will. i still think that is the right

call. we had a bad day today. we're going to like by be down on monday. as a trader, i'm not sure i want to be selling down on that. but i do think that we have a structural problem going on in both the economy and the markets and this is not a time for you to be out there being full-long. >> but when is the time to time that way back in. that is a very dangerous thing to say. >> i don't think you get back in for a while. >> for years. >> to tell people to get out of position and to get to cash when the market at a momentum is a low since the lows of black monday and at a place where we have earnings season where they could guide and rip higher once we get more information. i come from a place where going all cash is the most dangerous thing you could do -- >> why? >> because if you are not in the market, that is a bigger problem than -- >> let's talk about market valuations. >> i'm talking about people at home. >> don't care -- listen if i get it wrong, i get it wrong.

that is my career. >> someone with a 401(k) should sell and be in all cash at this point? >> yes. [ overlapping speakers ] >> you are missing the point. i don't think you should get back in necessarily. there are going to be opportunities. philip morris, i like that name because you get the yield. but i think we're entering a long bear market that is not good for assets. >> there is no such thing as a bad asset, the only exception is bad pricing. so assets at value, you have to discover price. price that makes sense. in this market, i'm not saying go out and buy an in dex. i'm not suggesting that. but there are values in this market that you have to look at and be very conscious about, very good values right now in this market of cash. >> i think it is dangerous about people, when we talk about people in the 401(k), people not actively managing their money, they should not be moving assets around quickly at a beginning of a very difficult start to the year. >> i want to make that clear. i'm not saying be quick. i'm saying we're in a dangerous

period of time. >> he is a longer term bearish view of the market. >> and this is now after the market has gone down 10%. >> i've been saying this for a long time. i've been saying this -- frankly, if you want to call me out on it, i've been saying it since 2012. now it is cracking. >> i think you've been very cautious. i think to say at this point, it is dangerous. >> mr. switzerland, get in here. are you still switzerland? >> at a point in 200, and i'm not suggesting that is where we are, but in 2008 you wanted someone like brian kelly to make a statement like this because there is no denying -- >> and they were mobbed, they were mobbed in 2008. >> what did i say, tim, i'm not suggesting we are. but brian thinks this s&p could go down to 1620, that is a 20 to 25% move from where we are. if you go to cash now and recenter at levels he talked about, that is not a bad thing. >> and if i had a crystal ball, i would say that too. >> he is not saying he has a

crystal ball. >> i don't understand why this is dangerous. why is this dangerous? the market is up so much. be cautious. >> let me ask you -- let me ask you guys on this side this, do you think the s&p is going to 1820 because i think that is the critical part. that is sort of like the foundation on which this argument builds. if you don't believe that, then no, you don't go into cash. >> i think there is an argument that the s&p could test through the blows of black monday and go to 1820. maybe 1800. but that is not the point. but the point is to take yourself out of positions and have no exposure, especially in stocks that may not behave the same way as the s&p. you've made good investments and otherwise trade etfs and don't trade stocks. that is what most people do. >> i don't believe we go there. i believe we are at a level where you pick your spots and take sectors that uch done your homework on and the stocks you've done your homework on, period, end of story. >> i've done my homework on what

i think the market is going to do. we're looking at a global recession. we're looking at illiquid across the world and earnings revised down. and that is just the facts. and not only that, look at what is going on with the employment index. that is turning down, saying we're going into a recession. and anecdotally sh the ceo of the largest shipping company in the world laying off people and saying it is the worst economy -- >> okay. we all need to calm down. we all need to calm down here. taking a break. up next, the brutal week for stocks as some draw comparisons to 2008, here on the desk. but there is a another year that might be a better comparison that could spell much-needed news for your portfolio. plus in a year from now, what are the stocks you should have bought today. our traders have a look. and apple is down a whopping 17% alone this month but don't worry we'll tell you how to get the money back on the tech titan and it won't cost you a thing. much for "fast money" after this. ou can get 15 gigs for 100 bucks plus $15 per line that is perfect because we are

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superior service, best selection, lowest price-- guaranteed! ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ welcome back to "fast money." markets todays are being rattled over currency depreciation and slowing earnings growth in the united states. it is all an echo of markets in a similar era. late 1997. a period that came to be known

as the asian financial crisis. asian countries kept rates high through the early 1990s in order to attract foreign investors and it worked, for a while. growth rates soared and soon e pushdities -- pundits were referring to the asian economic miracle. but when we raised rates in the mid 1990s money back flowing back into the united states. that became a problem. the u.s. dollar strengthened. and because many had currencied pegged to american dollar, that drove up the dollar and big exporters suffered. lenders with drew credit and it caused a huge credit crisis. the resulting slowdown called the asian flu by some sharply reduced the price of oil. it went to $11 a barrel in 1998. that represented in mergers in the oil business, including the biggest of all, exxon and mobile in 1998. that collapse in oil revenues led to the russian financial

crisis in 1998 when russia defaulted on its debt. the crisis put enormous appreciate on the u.s. stock market and on october 27th, 1997 it caused the u.s. stock market circuit breakers to kick in and shut the market before the normal close. that was the only time that has ever happened. fast forward to today and the themes are the same. a china economic miracle, a strong currency, currency devaluations and deflation. low oil is also a common theme. this time the decline is due to supply increases, not demand reduction. the bottom line, while china is a much bigger player this time there is nothing new about panic and the resulting capital flight. back to you, melissa, bob pisani. >> you were living in russia at the time. >> i was living in ure asia. we had a major adjustment in global occur yecurrencies excep saudi and the yuan, and that is

starting to revalue. so debt to equity, private sector debt a big problem. but if you look at china, they are three quarters of the excess debt in e.m. and i'm not saying it is good, but to say this i is '97 or '98, i won't say irresponsible but off the mark. but to say you want to rub for the hills -- run for the hills here, china policy is clumsy and don't bank on it but it won't take our economy down and it is very clear to me. >> you were actively trading at that time, i imagine. >> back in the day. >> back in the day. >> i have to tell you something, the currency moves, we saw in '98, nothing close to what we see now on a daily basis. you have one off once in a while. but in a ridiculous magnitude on a bailey basis. and it is not normal. and it is not normal to move 2% and 3 in one day. there is something wrong about that. and there have been books

written about currency wars. and we're in the midst of that. and where it ends, i don't know. but it is clearly not health any in my opinion. >> i would say we are closer to a 2008. there are parallels to '98. what is the same about 2008 and 97, they did cut rates and nowhere to go this time. the shanghai composite down after a volatile week. but it is not over yet. the three key events that could rock the market in china next week. and we'll tell you what those. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. here is what else is coming up on "fast." >> we have a way to make your dreams reality and we're jumping into the time machine to give you the four stocks in one year from now you will wish you would have bought. plus, lost money in apple?

d-oh. >> fear not. we have a way to get your money back. and it will cost you less than a dollar. we'll explain when "fast money" returns.

a rough start to 2016.

but hindsight is 20/20. and by the end of the year it will be clear what you should have bought right now. so we thought we would take a stab at the future. and we'll go around the horn. and see how that turns out. what would have bought today a year ago. that is a mind-bending tease. >> we're in the second worst correction of all-time. currencies that have adjusted. it will probably go lower. but to say you haven't seen the bulk of the move, i think we're going to get a rebound in global pmis and someplace where the you an finds a place to settle in. and it is contracted enough to the developed worth and seen the commodities move and give me a year and these are oversold and still higher growth than the ones here. there is no question about the move. you are buying an in dex of stocks that is you a 3% dividend yield. >> seaberg? >> i think google. and in the fang stocks, it is one of the most compelling

valuations. but i look at it from a growth stand point, they have shown they could monetize with mobile and people were concerned about that going into last year. they have come out of it. new cfo very cost-conscious -- and fourth quarter they are going to break out financials and i think this is going to be a trigger that will get the stock moving in the right direction. so relatively inexpensive stock. when i say that, from a growth per sperive, it is a rell -- per sperktive, it is relatively low cost. >> you own google don't you. >> but to say after the move it had last year and there is so much expectation build into the new transparent structure, don't you think there is -- >> [ inaudible ]. >> but eems are down quite a bit. this could be an atm stock. >> not in the past. you can't look at the future that way. >> i have to keep going. i have to keep the train on the

rails. >> beakers? >> he's go doing say it. >> i'm going to say buy something. but it is based on my view that we are probably heading into a recession. >> gold? >> yes. gdx. and i'll tell you why. because in this scenario, as i said about 1997, the fed cut rate and they can't do that now. and so what do they do? they go to negative interest rates. so we get to a point where the federal reserve gets negative interest rights and gold will hold up well. found a nice bottom around 13. plus you get a dividend. it is not huge but you get a dividend. >> look at what has happened. gold has gone down without the fed. >> defense stocks. i think this is the year for defense stocks. the last two years have been. i think this is going to be as well. a if you administration. a 2% dividend. 17 times forward earnings. they buy back stock for the right reasons, unlike ibm was doing it for the wrong reasons. tremendous backlog and tail

winds. the entire space. if i had to pick one, it would be raytheon. >> stocks going from 55 to the 25. -- >> we have to get to the final trade, here. tim. >> coca-cola. i think this is a great company with a high dividend and a difficult time. this is how you play conservatively. >> because this show is called "fast money" and not dead money, i'm saying buy bank of america. it is down 7% in low end of the range, i'm a buyer. >> beakers. >> if you want to keep your money and it is alive in black rock, you sell it. redemption is coming. >> gee. >> quickly, it is nine years ago today we started this, nine years, we'll see you hopefully for ten. raytheon. ended with it and started with it. raytheon. >> that does it for us. thank you for watching. see you on monday at 5:00 for more "fast money." meanwhile, "options action" begins right after this break. we live in a pick and choose world.

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save $600 on the #1 rated i8 bed. know better sleep with sleep number. remember us. it has been a while. but we're back. and here is the silver lining. the stom is closed at this point. they will make some sense of the market. while they are getting ready, here is what is coming up. ♪ everybody was kung fu fighting. >> that sounds like stock this week and there is one down stock that is saying nalling even more pain to come. we'll tell you the name and teach you how to protect yourself. plus, down on apple. how would you like to make your money back for less than a buck? we'll show you how. and we have a to do just that for your whole portfolio, the action begins right now. let's get right to it on a day that saw a