not yet with the u.s. economy though. >> we have silver linings. unemployment is good. inflation is quite low. we talked about the auto numbers earlier. consumers look happy right now. so i'm not too freaked out. >> we'll leave it there. "closing bell" ends and "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. your panel on the board. breaking below $30 a barrel and that has gartman declaring a new commodities. and how low they could go. and biotech stocks crashing. and should you step in and buy. we'll ask the ceo of merck in an exclusive interview. and if you are looking for the next earnings winners, we have the three names that could shock the street.

but first, stocks rallying in the close and finishing well off lows. the s&p and dow snapping a three-day losing streak. the nasdaq finishing in the red. so the question tonight, is if you are in the bull camp, the bull camp, was this a convincing bounce? guy? >> i won't say it is convincing. it is encouraging. august 24th is bounced over a two-day period. today we didn't get there. we got down to 1,900 and bounced. why it was interesting to me, steve grasso for the longest time has been saying $20 crude and spot on. and b.k. as well. but with it down 5 1/2% today that was vulnerable by midday, you could see a fall to the downside. it didn't. it bounced. i think it sets up a s&p for a retest of the 1970 level that we talked about for so long. >> the notice was down 1.3% and the s&p was down. >> pret amazing the way it

turned down. and the stocks beaten down with the market. not even related. the airlines were moving to the upside. i looked at hawaiian airlines and delta and across the board, united was struggling, but american moving to the upside. but it doesn't convince me just yet, just based upon -- we continue to watch oil go down, three, four, five, six percent today. and copper is under $2. and you worry about global slowdown. in china, that is the headlines. so is this a rally that you feel like you want to jump on board? i'm not so sure just yet. >> grasso, what do you think? >> i don't think so. i think we have to dip below the 1900 level. i think the overall commodities space needs to sell off, 1865 needs to be tested. >> the over all commodities space. aren't we seeing a selloff already. >> i think it will go further. i think crude needs to test $209 range. i think you have to go back to

the '01 levels, and i think that $20 is where we're headed. >> the selloffs are accelerated. look at the last couple of days in crude oil. we're seeingive and six percent selloffs. we'll see a down day. in the not too distant future. and the most important thing for me it never felt dicey as far as the s&p today. i think it was fantastic that people came in and bought a close -- not expecting -- no one knows what will happen in china overnight. we know the shanghai was down 5% last night. and that was a decent bifurcation between today and last night there. i think you're in a market where you want to sell rally and take profits and reduce equity. don't be buying dips. we're in a different market than 2013 and 14. >> this innings on the energy sector. there are a bunch of companies that either going out of business or move sideways. but oil at $30 a barrel, $31 a barrel, there is a whole bunch of names that can't survive. you don't need it to not

collapse, you need it to rally hard from here. >> the market doesn't rely on it. what will happen, when we see the continued dividend cuts and default and bankruptcy, they are knock-on effects. and that is going to be happening. and is there any contagion to that. >> sand if you look at 2011, energy as a percent of the s&p was 12%. today it's half of that. >> but it is the reason why energy is failing. because global growth is nonexistent. >> right. >> and the concerns about oil and what that means and what is next, what is the next domino affect. and you have to remember this. people, when they are getting beat up in certain areas, they start to selwyners and -- sell winners. we talked about this on halftime. if you see things in the biotech space and the selling pressure,

is there anything changed in the last few weeks that is negative? no. most of the news i've been reading much more positive than negative. and you are seeing profit taking out of other areas. >> and you are in a presidential year cycle. >> since hillary opened up her mouth, the ibb is down 20%. >> and what did you do today? did you buy any of the airlines? what about the financials? >> i did not add anything except to puts in freeport-mcmoran because i'm convinced that company is going lower than it is. it started in january, every month, we've seen 50,000, 60,000, and 80,000 options and it was active today and under $5, it is a problem. >> so the bets are to the down side even with the 20% decline. >> we've been talking about that. and carl icahn has been quiet about that specific position as it makes new lows.

but to answer your question as to why loyal is important giving its weighting, the impact on financials. look at blackstone -- since crude started breaking down, in my opinion, it is not coincidental that blackstone today makes a new 52-week low down 3.5%. >> what were you doing today? >> i think you stay defensive. it is a theme i'm on. we're going to talk about big pharma later. that is okay. if they are acquiring. but domestic non-dollar exposed and u.s. and telecois my position. and i'm short the spy and i will stick with that and add back -- 2100 is my line in the sand. that is a massive ways away. but every time in the s&p over the last two years down 6% or 7%, it is bad press. you have to wait to put shorts on and sell things on rallies. >> coming up, biotech stocks are trading near the flash crash lows so will big pharma

companies swoop in. we'll talk to merck. and alcoa shares turning lower. we'll hear from the ceo on what drove the quarter and what it could mean for earnings' season. and a corporate earnings specialist said there are three names that could shock investors when they report results this quarter. we'll tell you how you could profit when "fast money" returns. i think it landed last tuesday.

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welcome back to "fast money." shire and back salt are making headlines after announcing a $32 billion merger creating the biggest rare disease drug maker. could we expect more in the space in the year. we are at the jp morgan health care conference in san francisco. take it away. meg. >> thank you, melissa. and ken frazier, thank you for joining us. >> thanks. always good to be here. >> and we were talking about getting investors on board with high-risk, long time horizon and investing in the fruit for medicine and how are investors reacting to that in this environment right now? >> in our experience, our long-term investors understand what we're about. we understand that we're committed to doing science that

makes a difference in the world. they understand the lead time. so i think we've been able to communicate with what they could ready illy expect. we've had successes like keytruda that rewarded them. >> and there was an fda decision in hepatitis c expecting to enter the market where gilead and others are treating a lot of patients. how do you view the landscape there. >> we're excited to have an opportunity to come in with competition where there is significant unmet need and looking forward to bringing this product. it is an area where merck has a lot of history. we've been involved in hep c. and we think it could make a huge difference to the health care system and the patients. >> how are you looking at the prices. >> i won't talk about our pricing or go-to market strategy here. but i will say we believe we have a competitive regimen. >> so we shouldn't expect big discounts. >> as i said, i won't talk about

the pricing strategy. but we think that we have a competitive regimen that could make a huge difference in the market place. >> let's talk about what you are doing in amino oncology. keytruda is exciting, people are excited about it. you announced today that you are expanding that pipeline. how are you looking at that drug and how does the pricing cost come into that in terms of paying for the expensive drugs together. >> as you just said. it is a very exciting field. harnessing the body to fight the tumors. and we are still in the beginning chapters and we are still understanding monotherapy which is across many tumor types. but we think ultimately for many patients combinations are necessary and we're exploring 80 combinations through partners p partnerships, et cetera. with respect to pricing. i think we'll have to think rationally about pricing. because you can't stack drug on drug and expect that patients could pay for them. so we have to think about how we

discern the value that each component brings and how we could make them affordable and accessible. >> so you have a lot of good things coming this year. alzheimer's, cholesterol, cancer, what is the most exciting thing in your pipeline right now. >> that is hard to say. we talked about keytruda. but i'll talk about our basin hinter for alzheimer's disease. it is based on some pretty compelling human genetics data that suggest that people that have this condition don't develop alzheimer's. and so we're excited to be exploring and in the mild to moderate population and early to mid 2017 we'll find out the answer as to whether or not this is the right pathway. by the way, society needs a disease-modifying agent for alzheimer's. >> and is society set up to test the patients in alzheimer's, to figure out who is in the early stages of the disease? are we equipped to do that? >> we have p.e.t., to tell us

who is early to mild to moderate onset. >> thank you for joining us to talk. >> it is always good to be here. >> we have a big lineup tomorrow from jp morgan. we hope everybody tunes in. >> thank you. the ceo of merck, thank you. pete najarian, what is your thought. >> i own the name. and pfizer. and not because of the defensiveness, i own them, they have the dividend yield but i think there are pipelines out there that do generate excitement going forward. maybe not in the immediate. but you look at the pipelines and they are nice and deep. and you look at the biotech world, i think we'll see more and more deals. i don't think there is any slowdown. we saw more deals today. and we'll see more deals in a variety of spaces, not just big pharma and biotech but other areas in health care as well. >> does that help biotech. and pete mentioned it got cut

down in today's session on no news. >> i think people just see that there is major headwinds going forward. but if you see a name -- i've spoken when meg is on, kite pharma. it was down 42%. an outperformer last year. people are look at that name. but i think the whole industry, the whole sector is going to be challenged for the next year. >> and this brings us to the move of the day. and this is a new segment. and we're taking a look at an etf with a 1% move in either direction. with assets of at least $500 million and can't be a levered. and we're looking at the biotech, down 3% in today's session. rapidly approaching the august flash crash low here. celgene, one of the biggest components of ibb and that brought the sector down on the 2016 guidance which is lighter than what analysts were expecting itio expecting. >> here is the bring. great m&a. so great growth environment and the company is able to borrow cheaply and make acquisition.

so here is the thing, i think it is over and done. the deal announced with shire was in the making for a while here. i suspect in volatile markets we won't see a whole heck of a lot more of acquisitions at this stage of the game. people are looking at the valuations, we've talked about it on the desk, celgene has great growth. if you assume that forward estimates work. but now it is trading at 20 some times earnings. so i think when you said it earlier, people hit the register on things that worked out well in uncertain times. so i don't think there is uncertainty. and when you look at the etfs, like the ibb, they look bad. >> if you break down who holds a stock and why, it is a difficult case to make. because you had people who were in biotech and got burned and don't want to have anything to do with the space. and people had holds in biotech for quite sometime and rode the rally and in this market environment, as you said, they are looking for atm stocks and why not biotech in an election year, why not. >> dan has been skeptical about

the space. and he's been right. especially celgene. a couple of weeks ago it traded up to 120 on some good news and dan said, it would fade and here it is down to 100. and ibb, the low right before october, we had talked about the level. tim seymour flagged it and we dropped it off and seemingly bounced, i won't put that much into it and a good volume day but if anything else on the ibb, i think you could trade it long. >> and some of the names really sold off. and i'm not talking about the celgenes or the am agains with real earnings. but the speculative names with great pipelines. some of them, as they have been soldoff, if the pipelines are promising enough and i look at names like instinct and oncology names because that is the hot place where people want to be. >> aren't those the exact places you don't want to be. >> i'm not saying those are the buy. what i'm saying is if the conversation is are the lillys of the world, are the bristol

and the merck, we just had the ceo on, where are they? because they need growth in the pipeline. >> but the corollary is those are the stocks you might want to buy. >> they might have interest. but because they are so high volatile you i don't know if you want to go into the direct stock because if you hit the wrong one, you won't be feeling good. but the ibb and names are in the ibb along with names that trade at reasonable earnings and some pay a dividend. >> and i do believe there will be headwinds. but if you look at top ten holders on the big chunky names, they've done nothing but add. we'll see the next filing. but these are guys that own tens of millions of shares and they've been shaken out of it. for what it is worth. >> the celebrities came out in full force last night at the 2016 golden globe ceremony. but it is netflix and amazon that emerged as the real winner. and we'll tell you why after the break. i'm melissa lee, and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

here is what else is coming up on "fast." >> that sums up crude. and according to dennis gartman, it is about to get worse. he'll tell you just how low oil could go. >> and plus earnings shockers. you won't believe the stocks that traders see having huge moves higher. the names that could make you fast money, after this.

and the golden globe goes to -- >> mozart in the jungle. >> that was a clip of last night's golden globes on nbc with amazon grabbing the win for best tv comedy. the streaming giant winning two of the three nominations last night. netflix came up empty-handed. although they did receive a ton of nominations for shows like orange is the new black and house of cards. dan. >> this is a trend we saw in the emmys. that amazon came on the stage and beat-out netflix in a key category here. again netflix won a few emmys in september. but down a whole heck of a lot from the prior year. and it tells me that hbo

continues to dominate. they won 43 emmys. they didn't have a huge night last night. but hbo is the one. but if you are having the upstarts coming into the content, it becomes a much more crowded field and there are better places to be. my consistent view has been stick with time warner. that is the best content play out there and i wouldn't try -- i wouldn't buy amazon for it either. and i'm not buying netflix for it either. >> would you be concerned about netflix because of this? >> i don't know that you would be concerned. >> it shows that a competitor could make in-roads when it comes to -- without spending gones of money. >> there is room there. but what stands out is amazon. they go into the cloud space and become extremely competitive. they are in e-commerce. they own that. and now getting into the shipping world as they make acquisition. they find ways to make in-roads into just about everything. >> i thought you were going to say make money. >> there are ways to make money. but they are still spending the money to build out what they are doing and bezos has shown that,

time and time again. when he decided to lift up the cam owna and show you what you do, they gave us a quarter everybody was shocked with and then went right back to the amazon way which is we're going to spend more than people expect. >> the fang stock still performing is netflix. they did the rollout and surprised everybody. it was supposed to be four different spots. they rolled out over a hundred. and they are in 120 different markets. international growth is where the growth is for them. this is a stock that is flat while the others are getting pummelled, if you use a atm, you are okay in netflix still. >> and more pressure from star board and a letter to management over the weekend, star board urged the department store to push for more stake. and said spinning off macy's real estate assets could mean for more shareholders and cut costs. >> and that has been out there

before about the real estate. so they are not breaking any ground here. but it comes in the wake of last week, which we all think was a lousy week for the prouder market. they make a 52-week low and reverses and closes higher on the day and again on tuesday when it was a down day. on wednesday, that is the day they gave guidance. traded down to 35 and change. by the after market it was 38 and you saw the follow-through today. the price action suggests for the short-term, the bottom is in. i think you stay long macy's. given valtion and some of this, i think in terms of news flow, they have tail winds for the foreseeable future. >> you have had macy's. >> i did like activists got involved and suggesting that some sort of reit would be greater value than the current market cap. but the stock kept on going lower. and i made this point on the show before. activist investing is a bull market activity. if we are no longer in a bull

market, you could push for what you want but it doesn't matter here. so i think the better play is nordstroms or a macy's merge and spin off stuff and cut out the cost and do the things this activist is talking about, but we don't need this many department stores. that is a fact. >> the biggest problem out of last year is there is any excitement around macy's is because of star board. it is not like suddenly lundgren came out and said we turned this ship around and figured out efficiencies and find profitability again. that is not the storeyline. they say as a reit this will give us cash, which does potentially does work. but does macy's want to execute on that. >> a quick would you rather. >> i love this game. >> this will blow your mind. >> ibm. >> macy's or walmart? >> wow! are you pointing at me. >> you looked at pete. >> i know. >> letter m. and i'll tell you why. everything you said was correct

except two things have changed. the price action last week was good and the weather got cold. both of those things helped letter m. >> up next, krut oil hitting a 12-year low and dennis gartman is sounding the alarm on his new norm for oil. where he sees crude heading next. and as we head to break, alcoa trading lower on earnings. that call is well underway. we'll hear from the ceo right after this. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks staging a bit of a comeback and managing to end in the green after last week's route. but the dow ended up 50 points and the s&p up a couple of points but the nads closed in red. it has ended all 2016 days in the red and the first time it has done that since 1991. in the second half of "fast money." activists and investors circling time warner. so how much could the company be worth? we have a very special "fast

money" report. and alcoa kicking off earnings season tonight and three names set to shock investors after their reports. but first the markets in china seeing red across the board today. with the main land indices closing lower and we are hours away from the opening in asia. to susan li with what to expect. >> hi, melissa. today we are anticipating more bear issues in across the asia-pacific, china stocks hitting four year lows. and hong kong hitting two year lows. and the currency is affecting sentiments because we had eight straight sessions of a weaker fix and the last two sessions we've seen stronger fixes for the you an. so people are confused as to where they want to take the currency. and that is having an impact here in hong kong. we have the ihbor, the interbank

rate spiking to levels, and this has to do by invention of authorities going in to buy chinese currency to stem the slide and the weakness in the yuan and having to sell u.s. dollars. and that is draining liquidity in hong kong spiking the rates. and yesterday we saw a heavy selloff in the banking names. and this is something to watch going forward because there is questions about growth in china. we get trade figures later on today. the focus is on the impart part of this equation because we know exports -- they have been slowing down. but also this comes off the cpi, ppi numbers over the weekend. and there is still deflationary pressures in china, especially with ppi being down, negative rate, for 46 straight months. so there is a lot of questions as to where we're going in china, what the authorities are going to do and heavy selling in a down market with japan close, it will be interesting to see how japan opens later on today.

back to you in new york. >> thank you, susan li. >> crude touching a 12-year low and last week our next guest had this to say about the commodities trading range, take a listen. >> i think we'll be $40, either side of $37 for spot wti. i'm thinking 33 on the low end, 41 on the high end for the spot wti for a long period of time going forward. >> well we've breached the low-end target so is this the bottom for oil or do we have further to fall. dennis gartman joining us from virginia beach. what do you think? >> people forget it was a year and a half ago i thought we would get to the middle 30s when the crude oil price was trading at $125 a barrel. here we are at $32. and the pressure is still on. i thought we would see some support, clearly we haven't. and what is really -- the real problem is that western canadian select continues to come down out of canada, it is trading $14

a barrel this afternoon. a huge discount to wti. tends to trade $7 to $8 discount and now trading $15, $16, $17 discount. and perhaps most troubling was the fact that the chinese, who have been filling up the spr, the strategic petroleum reserve have filled it up or are very close to it. crude continues to move. it continues to be produced. we're not shutting it off fast enough. the saudis aren't going to do it. the iraqis will not do it. the iranians will not do it. so the pressure is on the frackers here in the united states to finally be the ones to break and cease production. that is the only thing that could help it. so you could get the front month trading $15 to $20 discount and get the con tango widening out and yes, it could still go lower. >> so do you revise lower, that lower end of the range that you gave. morgan stanley came out with a note today saying $20 a barrel and the driver is a dollar with

regard to any sort of demand or supply fundamentals. >> you have the dollar continuing to get strong. it is getting strong this afternoon. the euro does not wish to rally. the yen continues to weaken. the dollar is the predominant deciding factor and as long as it wants to go higher, and it zrks the pressure is on the -- the prush is on the crude oil market. i thought that the 32 would hold. i thought that would be the furthest is extend it down to. but we are in a panic situation. but in panic, you could get a lower price. you may have to end this with margin calls going out and a fell swoop to the down side and the whole thing falls out. >> what is egregiously lower. give me a definition in dollar terms. >> 15, 16, $17 a barrel on the front for a day or two. but it can't last long down there. you will get bankruptcies. you will get curtailments of

production by the frackers. they have to go out. >> dennis, thank you. dennis gartman of the gartman letter. $15, $16, $17. and what happens to the equities already in the session. we saw a number get slaughtered. particularly a drillers. they hit 52-week highs -- lows, sorry. >> and a lot of companies won't survive. and not to over simplify, but if you see a company that trades at $20 or lower, or branch that out to $30 or lower, they are in danger of not surviving if crude stay where's it is for a while. >> guy, what do you think? >> gart talked about it and everybody is bearish, collectively we have done a good job. you stay away from haliburton, schlumberger and if you want to trade, maybe haliburton against the $30 level that we flagged a number of times, otherwise stay out of the space. >> coming up, the traders will tell you the four names you need to watch that could surprise the street. that is right after the break.

plus the consumer could be in trouble, according to one trader. we'll tell you why some of the biggest names to take a huge hit. much more "fast money" still ahead.

welcome back to "fast

money." where we've been listening in on the alcoa fourth quarter conference call. the ceo saying in large part thanks to acquisition and continued growth in aerospace business. suggesting that aluminum prices which hurt the upstream business last year are unlikely to be repeated in 2016. but alcoa is expecting continued strength and demand. >> we are also projecting robust aluminum demand growth for this year of 6%. and we are believing that illuminum deficits are going to happen in this year. >> now as it looks ahead to splitting the business into two in the second half of the year, one focused on providing products to the aerospace and product and the other focused on raw materials. noting that the program excepted to save the firm across all businesses about $225 million a year in two years. a quick note on the forecast for the businesses. aerospace expected to be strong with growth of 8% to 9%.

also seeing growth in construction, auto and packaging, but at more modest levelsm while declines in production will impact the heavy-duty truck business. in china, slowing demand contributed to the slowing in metal prices. they are seeing that contributing to the aluminum deficits this year. >> and clyde sounded -- >> i was on the 4:00 show with kelly evans. who does an unbelievable job at that time. and she came to me and said what do you think about alcoa. and i said they have not had a quarter to be optimistic about for the last three years and the stock has been, in a word, grim death -- that is not one word. >> one word. >> alcoa is a mess. the valuation is expensive. but if a guy like warren buffett

fell in love with precision cast sparts -- >> someone else could fall in love with alcoa. >> i'm not suggesting it is happening. but i'm saying it is not that far-fetching giving what is going on in the world to see something like that. >> and alcoa kicking off earnings season. for a look at what the street is expecting and the biggest earnings surprises, lets bring in the vp of est imize. i want to talk about two stocks. two are in the commodities and surprised to the upside. >> we looked through the screener and picked out the names in which the community, not just the sell side but buy side and independent research firms and nonprofessionals were bullish than the sell side. and they were surprising, because, like you said, we have exxon one of them. we are expecting an 8 cents beat. we're at 82 cents. they still have a few weeks to

report. we are expecting 82 cents. the street right now is at 74 cents. so i think what happens in this case with energy companies, the street just pulls the estimate down so much that is create this is lower bar. and for the last quarter exxon beat quite sizably, chevron is in the bucket as well. we're expecting a beat for chevron. and you mentioned materials, united states steel is on a list. that is a materials company of course. and we are looking for a 7 cents beat there. so i think in some cases as a sector continues to fall, it gets spooks and pull back too much and become too conservative. >> and then there is go-pro. >> i think it is the most interesting of the three here. and because we are looking for 51 cents a share. that is the estimate in the community. guidance is at 40 cents. the street is at 33 cents. so they are 7 cents below company guidance. and you see the same trend in revenues as well. since when does the sell side go against and even lower than what the corporation is expecting?

i mean, the corporation has no reason to inflate their guidance numbers. they are only going to confuse investors once they report. and i think they are so bullish they are willing to go below what the company is expecting. >> you are focusing on eps versus the estimates you are getting. how about the revenue side. it could be buybacks or whatever engineering reason they could beat and on the revenue side they miss. >> for those three, for earnings per share and revenues, we are expecting higher on both. but you are right, revenues is a big theme this season. and we are officially in a revenue recession. there was much made over the last year, are we entering a earnings recession but we haven't seen the s&p in negative territory yet. we are entering the fourth quarter. this could be the fourth quarter of negative revenue growth for year-over-year. so first, second and third quarter we are down on revenues and now expecting the drop to be 2.2% for the fourth quarter. and we're actually expecting

earnings per share to be down 1.4%. but as you said, that could be engineered. typically we see companies beat eps and that growth number will potentially go up. >> christine, thank you for swinging by. interesting stuff. christine short offest imize. >> pete, does this make you feel better? >> no. i appreciate everything christine is talking about. and i look at u.s. stool and i put that in the bucket of the freeport-mcmoran of the world and you are looking for a reason. and 52-week again low today. where are they actually selling to? how could they reach any numbers? to me it seems very difficult and i could see the pressure globally. >> what do you think about go-pro? >> her point about the estimates below what the company guided to, let's be honest, q4, the analyst track. and they've been lowering the numbers the whole quarter. we know they didn't have a new product there. so to me high short interest, it has gone down to a level as a

take-out. it is not a long-term, but maybe as a short-term sentiment trade. >> let's go around the horn. >> i like this game. >> you don't know what the game is. >> it is a good game. >> a guess on stocks that anticipate will surprise this quarter. this is their pick for surprises. pete. >> mine got stolen before we came on the air because earlier in the day the producers said what do you think and i said lululemon and this is a story playing over the last month. but when you look at what the company is able to do, the issues are in the rear-view mirror. from some of the products. shirts being the most recent one in just this past year. but i think there is so many things that management has been doing right recently that i expected them to be very strong. and now it came out just about an hour and a half ago and they said we're going to raise guidance and do this and that. and so they stole it. and this is a name i said this afternoon as well. i think they are stealing with under armour.

and that is what women -- the morgan stanley analyst was focused on and because of that, i think this is a company taking from them. >> and grasso, your pick? >> apple. it is so uniformly negative across the street. you can't buy a bullish call. even though people are bullish on the name. i think units are expected to be to the downside. they possibly could beat december units. i don't think they will beat march. but i think there is upside risk to the stock right now. >> dan? >> home depot. i won't do an upside. i will do a downside one. >> really? >> what a surprise that is. >> here is the thing. when you think about this company, i'm looking at the home builder etf, down 21% from the 52-week highs. look at what auto stocks have done. if there is a leading indicator, for the earnings growth, they will have the lowest growth for 2015, it is expected to be flat to down-ish, a little next year. if they were to give a stock guide, the stock has the

potential to go lower, trading at 23 times trailing, that is about a ten-year high for home depot. it is a much-loved stock. we've seen some of them come out of favor, apple and disney. >> the biggies. >> to be honest, i think 150 is a great entry. they don't report until late february. >> gee? >> do you know who sings this song? >> carly simon. >> good job. 1971. i know somebody was in your ear. >> i said it before she said it to me. >> mine would be the facebook. facebook. it sold off significantly over the last few weeks. the last six or seven quarters have been outstanding. i think we agree they have varying levels of price action offer the kwaer -- quarters. but given the selling, i think that is the upside. dan will say it is too expensive. but they have the growth and enough levers to pull where i think this stock will surprise to the upside. love carly simon by the way. she was -- back in the day. come on.

>> coming up, could hbo be mother as much as netflix. some investors think so. we'll tell you why and what it could mean for shares of time warner from a company insider. stay tuned. let me introduce you to our broker. how much does he charge? i don't know. okay. uh, do you get your fees back if you're not happy? (dad laughs) wow, you're laughing. that's not the way the world works. well, the world's changing. are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab.

he just re-upped again. the first part of his tenure, he slimmed down, got rid of aol, got rid of time per day, focusing on the core television, cable, and move studio. the problem is hbo is such a

crown jewel, it's worth so much now, like a netflix, netflix has got a market cap, $47 billion. hbo is probably worth $40 billion. time warner's market cap is $56 billion. that means you know what some of the parts exercises are all about. and that means you're getting cnn, turner, the movie studio, games, all for about $15 billion. that's right. remember, rupert murdoch offered 85 bucks for this stock. it went to 91. it's now at 69. >> why do we assume all the other properties, basically time warner, ex-hbo, is worth $16 billion? >> cbs was looking at it very closely. the movie studio, 4 to 5. television, not so much. that business is not doing so well right now. tnt, tbs, cartoon network, maybe only a billion. the game business is worth a lot

of money. >> so what you're saying is effectively the weakness in disney was a drag on the entire space, giving a tremendous buying opportunity in time warner? >> i'm not saying that. >> i just said it. >> you're saying that. i not only worked there but have some shares from when i was an employee, full disclosure, not a whole lot. if rupert murdoch said it was worth 85 bucks a couple of years ago, it's worth 69 now. espn, they're not going to fix this thing, it's dead, the whole media sector is dead, i don't know if i buy that. >> says the person in the media. >> true enough. you can take any company that gives up on the business. it's not necessarily the case. hbo, remember, he's the spin king, and amazon is circling potentially, looking for a deal.

20th century fox could come back into the picture again. >> andy, thanks for coming. i have a question, the decline in disney, the concern about subscribers. does that mean hbo should be worth more? does that really mean hbo should be worth less and the decline in time warner shares is justified? >> less, but how much less? would be the question i would say. and i think that when we've watched this decline, it's about so severe, we're talking about 85 and 69, because of the severity of that decline, i think it's overdone. ripe for another activist to get involve if they so choose. >> let's look at consumer discretionary. it's down more than 5% this year. one trader is betting the pain will continue. dan, what do you see? >> i suspect it was a bearish role, a hedge against discretionary stocks. a lot of names lye like amazon and starbucks performed very well. today they rolled out of a march

put spread 20,000 times and put 30,000 of the june 69-61 put spreads. that's why i think this is likely not an outright bearish bet but protection. look at the one-year chart. it bounced today off of 70 bucks, that's good support. the trader likely rolling some protection there. >> thanks, dan. bull show friday. meantime, coming up, the final trade. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. at ally bank no branches equals great rates.

it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night.

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quick programming note, don't miss an exclusive interview with the ceo of starbucks, howard schultz, on "the closing bell" tomorrow at 4:00 a.m. >> i think we're looking at a very difficult market. energy stocks, i don't think you want to go bottom picking in there. >> foot locker? >> nike. i like the leisure space. >> american eagle, i broke one of my rules of engagement here. i bought it on friday, down 15%. it's got to hold 13-15 to be viable again. >> under armour has gone 70 in the last couple of days. if they hold 60, maybe a buyout.

>> i'm in ath leisure as well. netflix will get you done. >> thanks for watching. see you back at 5:00. "mad money" starts now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. my job is to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. what the heck would it tab for this market to form a lasting bottom so we don't have to sell every rally? including today where we spent