>> we'll find out. >> we'll find out. >> thanks for watching. "the closing bell" starts right now. hi, everybody. welcome to "the closing bell." is i'm kelly evans. >> and i'm bill griffeth. there have been plenty of days early this year where we've had an early rally and it failed and went south. not today. stocks got slammed on the open. there was no question we were beginning to have a selloff today after we saw a selloff overnight in asia and in europe this morning. at the lows, the dow was down 566 points and then it has started a comeback this afternoon. the s&p has lost $2 trillion in market cap since the beginning of the year. that's a fun statistic that's been bandied about wall street all day. you probably have heard by now, it's the worst start of the

year, ever for the u.s. stock market. >> and one of the worst months since the financial crisis. so the question is, why so much selling? why so much relentless selling? oil being the big culprit. the price of crude falling to its lowest level since 2003. no surprise, today in this market, even as we've come become a little bit, energy companies are getting slammed and concerns about a global slowdown are rippling throughout wall street. >> david rosenberg will talk about where he thinks investors can find safety right now. that's one thing people are actually looking for. >> sure. the ceo of t.d. ameritrade will tell us about what impact the volatility is having on his business. >> also, we have full team coverage of today's selloff. bob pisani is with us. jackie deangelis, covering a wild day on the markets. steve liesman is on the fed.

remember them? and whether the selloff could trigger a possible return. let's start off with robert pisani. >> it's pretty grim in the middle of the day. the only good news is that today has some elements of what we call climate selling. the s&p 500 was straight downright at the open. oil tracked right down. we bought it around 1812 on the s&p 500. and then began a comeback. we're 34 points off of the low for the s&p 500. it's sideways from the last few minutes. take a look at these wacky numbers here. these market sberm internals in last hour. we had 1347 new lows. almost 3,000 stocks at the new york stock exchange. we're talking about 40% of the nyse of new lows. that's the worst since at least 2008. maybe even worse than that. 6/1 declining advancing stocks. this is much better than it was

earlier. double normal volume would indicate at least some kind of short-term selling climates. doesn't mean it's necessarily over. but at least some kind of bounce. i want to point out a couple of stocks. we had some very interesting news. here's chesapeake energy. started to rally dramatically. look at it now. it's on the upside. now it's up as you see 3.6%. it moved upwards so fast. one other stock i want to mention. exxon mobil, we've been talking about it. it's escaped much of the carnage here. it's still only down about 7%. much more typical is chevron.

also down 5.5%. but chevron is down 14% for the year. and that is in line with the way the other energy stocks are trading. >> thank you, bob. we'll have more in a moment. let's get to that crude collapse. jackie deangelis joins us from the nymex. >> it was a brutal number today. a near 7% decline. the session low for february's contract was 26.19. the nearby march contract also selling off equally as steep. multiple factors here when it comes to the crude oil trade that are pressuring this trade right now. not just supply and demand, but also price car concerns between the iranians and the saudi arabians, and the concern that the u.s. equity market will continue to decline from here. on the supply side, still expecting to see the inventory

build. look at this year to date chart. it's been a rough start for the year for crude oil as well by all accounts. now we're saying it's more like $22 a barrel. even those who think that oil will stabilize later in the year say it will get worse before it gets better. it's really difficult to stomach sessions like this. some say it's easier to get it out of the way. that could be challenging as well. >> thank you, we'll see you later. what's next for the fed amidst all of this? jamie dimon gave his opinion in davos this morning on cnbc. they don't agree on this issue. listen.

>> i think the risks are asymmetric on the downside. that's why i said before that the next major move in fed policy will be toward a quantitative easing, not toward tightening. >> i still think the economy is chugging along. as long as it's chugging along, you're going to see another rate increase. by the way, if we go into recession, i think it's right. i think zero rates have a huge -- very careful about. >> let's get reaction from our steve liesman. it's interesting, listening there, in a sense they could both be right. there are global financial reasons why we might have to see the fed coming to the rescue. i agree with ray's comment. you get there with very modest growth in the fourth quarter.

we're tracking about 0.5 to 1%. that creates the risk that the fed will have to reverse course. i think the most important factor when i talk to economists out there is the jobs number. they say this is a coincidence, or leading indicator for the economy. we have very strong job growth in december. still suggests that we have lots of people employed. consumer spending picking up in january. i think the fed's next move, and i'm sure about this, is to pause. that's what's going to happen in two weeks. that is not saying much, but i think that pause probably continues through march. let the markets calm down. the fed's monetary policy is dependent on the data. and part of that data is what's happening in the market, but it's not the biggest piece of it. it's going to be the gdp figures. going to be the personal income and the jobs numbers and the inflation numbers. and the fed's simply going to wait until it has clarity on

whether or not the market is truly predicting something of an economic downturn before reversing course. >> i've got steve now in the fed pool for hold. janet yellen has been saying for over a year that she feels like the lower oil prices were transitory. that we would see inflation build again. here we are a year later and we're even lower than we were last year at this time. and we don't see a sign of a bottom yet. you wonder what she's going to say when she's talking to congress next month. >> from the fed's standpoint, let's play a quick game here. give me a bottom for the price of oil. >> $20. >> okay. so at 27, we're a whole lot closer to that bottom of 20 than we are to the 100 that we were when oil started falling off. so it's a simple mathematical game that tells you, you know what? in terms of the overall downward effect, or downward pull from oil prices, that will be falling off. and you saw it a little bit in

the cpi data today. if you look, by the way, at services, x energy, which is a big part of it, it is flat at 3%. and what's happening in commodities, this massive downdraft in commodities, it is not holding down inflation in the service sector. once that big drop comes out of the system, it's going to have upward pressure on inflation. >> steve, just a quick additional point. we're looking at the dollar index today. it's at $99.12. continues to move higher. and this is the way in which a lot of this global turmoil is spreading. it's a problem for a lot of countries. it's a problem for a lot of dollar-linked commodities. what might the feedback mechanism be? >> there's pain to be felt with oil prices. pain to be felt from the fed reversing course after this stronger dollar. and we're feeling some of that.

i think again, the fed's forecast here is for that effect to wear off over some period of time. we're closer to the bottom than we are to the top. there's pain to be felt. adjustments to be made. i think the paradigm i'm going by is the one of 98, not 2008, which is a massive systemic risk fallout, rather than one that acutely hurt individual countries. >> all right, steve. very good. thank you. see you later. steve liesman joining us there. let's go to our "closing bell" exchange. by the way, if you're just joining us, it's a big number. the dow is down 281 points. but if the lows of today's session, the dow was down 566 points. so we've come well-off those lows and we continue to do so as we head toward the close.

joining us in our exchange today, keith fitzgerald from moneymorning.com. peter costa from empire executions is at post might be the -- post nine. and our own rick santelli. mr. costa, i've been waiting to talk to you forever. you famously got out of the market last year. you've been waiting for the august lows at 1867 on the s&p. earlier today, we were 55 points below that number. are you getting back into this market? >> yes, i am. i'm not going to go jump with both feet. my size 10 feet are going to stay on the ground. i'm just going to take a dip. we will see this again. we'll take it one day at a time. i definitely am getting back in the market. i'm not going to be 100%

invested until more than likely the summer, but right now, i definitely am getting back in. >> did anything change around 1:00 p.m. eastern today? why did we go from one of the worst sessions in recent history to one that's more consistent with what we've seen so far this year? >> i think the treasuries can give you the answer to that. the point is, we see surges of selling. it isn't a rotatiorotation. it isn't a pensive conscious decision. or looking at metrics going i think i'm going to get out of this. i really do think that we have basically a rolling, global margin call. it's been going on in my opinion since the third quarter of last year. it gets a little bit more intense, because in essence, a

quarter point doesn't mean anything. but the mentality that we are about ready to turn the quarter on the grand experiment means a lot. everybody's talking about how horrible it is. i get that. cpi was two over one today. very rarely mentioned. that is the highest level since july of 2010. >> before i get to your question, keith, the big laggard in this market has been the small cap, the russell 2000 and today it has turned around completely. positive for the first time today. what are you doing with this market, keith? do you sense that we're putting a bottom in? putting a few feelers out? what are you doing here? >> absolutely. to rick's point, this is a global margin call. there's two things that have ruled this selloff. today in particular. it's all about leverage and

emotion. people want out at any cost. it's a classic sign of capitulation. i'm not ready to go jump in with both feet. i'm going to go swinging a little at a time. but i think companies like beckens dickinson, the world needs that. it's a compelling buy. it's a must-have. gasoline is still a must-have. my point is there's going to be value in this market. >> one thin we've noticed, though, peter about the trading here on the floor is that even about half apple hour ago when the decline number was bigger for the markets, a lot of stocks were only down about 2% or 3%. nothing like the extremes we've witnessed recently, except for one area and that was energy. and we are seeing names like exxon and chevron that in the past were unscathed by the drop in oil prices on a day-to-day

basis. really taking this one on the chin. >> this is a classic sign of capitulation in the energy session or the. when you see major players down 7%, those were down huge. to me, that's a classic sign. i mean, volumes are up a little bit more than normal. i'm not going to use the volume thing. just sheer pricing. it looks to me that this is getting very, very close to the bottom. as far as the energy sector is concerned. and that's a great sign for the market. >> i wouldn't dare to ask you the names of companies you're buying, peter, but can you give us sectors? >> also starting to look at utilities for a lot different reason than most people. because of the dividends. everyone knows about that. most utilities have not reduced the sale of energy to their clients. they kept it pretty much stable for the last two years.

but their energy costs have gone down by 55%. so to me, these are companies that are going to continue to be very, very profitable. and i'm keeping a very good eye on it. they didn't have a huge move today. and i think that they're very, very solid. and in the dividend thing, that's a bonus as far as i'm concerned. >> we were also saying earlier, it's hard to imagine the market could be all that bad if twitter is higher. this might be some idiosyncratic reasons for that. but what would you do with the tech space here? and some of the names, whether small or large, that have gotten carried out. >> you've got to look to the mettic ricks. a company like netflix, for example, is a big -- not classically a tech company, but it's all about technology. technology of acquiring market shares. the technology of moving their products. they've got numbers. that spells upside. if you've got a downside

dislocation, it's like going to your store and getting a 20% off store. buying all day. >> appreciate it. >> if we're just going us, this is another important day for the markets. the dow down 242 points right now. was down 566. and in fact, we're starting to see some green chutes prop up. right? >> there's the nasdaq even, in positive territory. >> i saw pfizer had turned positive. we are starting to see some things. >> united health care. and nike might be up there. american express. apple. microsoft. >> you can know at the bottom of that list will be exxon and chevron. >> also ibm, we should also explain what's going on here.

big blue cfo martin schroeder did speak up with us on "closing bell" yesterday. he said strategic businesses like the cloud and analytics have grown to more than a third of the company's revenue. take a listen. >> in our cloud business, which again was 10 billion last year, we have a number of approaches to this marketplace. clearly, we have a very strong infrastructure as a service offering. and when we look across the service offerings, we finished 2015. and that's across both the infrastructure as a service. the platform as a service, and our software as a service offering. >> that said, they get on the call. that earnings guidance came way down. you can see the shares now down 5%. they had that earnings beat.

>> let's send it over to bertha coombs. what's going on there. >> it's been quite the roller coaster ride today. the nasdaq has been down now 12 of the last 14 sessions. last time it had such a bad downward move was back in 2009, and it took about 16 seconds overall for the nasdaq to bottom. take a look at this reversal here as we're moving towards the close. we are seeing the nasdaq come up and move into positive territory. a big reason why are the small caps. the small caps are the worst performers year to date. they've been beaten down since last quarter. and today they are moving higher. some of the big cap names have been among the names most under pressure. netflix today. you saw that huge pop yesterday. we take a look at a two-day chart. following the results this morning, my headline was that international is the new black for netflix.

then investors seemed to get cold feet. they were selling off. perhaps they were selling some of their winners what they could. some of the other big cap names moving higher. apple one of the better performers among the big names. we're starting to see those get dragged. it's very much a story of reversal and started in tech with the chip stocks. linear technology was the only stock in the nasdaq 100 that was positive from the get-go after forecasting better than expected numbers, upgrading its outlook. also a deal to buy -- it's biotech. i'd be remiss if i didn't show you that chart today. that's what started it all. a lot of folks saying some of these names have gotten so cheap, it may revive interest in

some of the larger biopharma companies looking to make some acquisitions. and traders made that essentially the sellers today just got tired. there wasn't so much for sale. back to you. >> we've got a second wind now that they're buying, because biotech is up 4%. >> just for fun, let's see what the dow chart looks like right now. i mean, i'll give some away here. i flippantly said to a couple traders a while ago we're going to finish positive today. i don't know if that's going to happen, but right now the dow is down 158 points and on the move higher here. >> a lot of little hints as to what might be going on here. we'll get to some of those in a moment. volatility that we've been seeing lately, often a good thing for the brokerage firms. take t.d. ameritrade. reported earnings this morning, beating analyst estimates. that said, the stock is down along with much of the rest of the market. >> or at least it was. last we checked. joining us right now is the president and ceo of t.d. ameritrade. it is still down, 1% right now. when we came walking up, you had

that cheshire cat look on your face. >> there's a lot of movement in the market today. that's usually for us a very good day for trading. no question there's a lot more volatility in january. our trades per day through last friday were 579,000. that's up 30% from the december quarter. so we are seeing a lot of trading right now. >> wow. what are you thinking, by the way, having been through the number of market panics? is there something to be more deeply worried about here? >> i think right now, the way i look at the world today is basically that the u.s. economy is in pretty good shape. the unemployment is up 5%. you saw inflation numbers at 2.1% in december. so the u.s. economy still feels pretty good from my perspective. however, i think what you're seeing here is the price of oil definitely falling off a cliff

here. and you're seeing concerns about china, global growth, and all the secondary and tertiary impacts. >> how do you think your clients are handling this? >> for the most part, basically staying in. sticking with their plan, which is what we talked to them about. if you're a trader in this market, make sure you trade what you know. this is not time to venture into a new territory. stick to what you know. >> last year, we saw a number of people. both the big money hedge funds piling into names like facebook, apple, netflix, and the alphabet. is everybody out of those names? >> our clients are not out of those names. >> what about in the energy?

>> you're seeing a lot of trading. >> clearly, the price of oil is what's calling the shots right now, right? the prevailing wisdom is we don't see a bottom in stocks until we see a bottom in oil. do you agree with that? >> i think so, the fear is about a global recession. and certainly have a supply/demand imbalance in the price of oil. i think people are genuinely nervous about a little bit of a lowering demand from china on oil. it's going to cause the firm some trouble. >> finally, as we look at china, it comes up as an issue, and then it goes away. bear markets, they were trying to sort the economy and do all of these things. and quite the opposite has happened. is there any more that they could do at this juncture to really earn the trust back of the global community?

>> i think whenever you have those types of things, those short-term actions to stem the prevailing wisdom in the market, they typically don't work. they kind of fall away. >> i think right now, china has some good growth and a healthier economy. a economy that's still pretty good. >> always good to see you. >> nice to see you. >> thanks for joining us today. the ceo of t.d. ameritrade. did i say we were commercial free? i was misinformed. >> we are going to take a short break. stay with us. there's 35 minutes to go in the session, with the dow down 150 points. vastly different picture than at 550 we were down just a couple of hours ago. >> so you knew we were going to be asking this question. have we hit bottom in this market? coming up, we're going to ask david rosenberg that very question. also ahead, netflix taking a leg lower, despite its better than expected earnings we told you about late yesterday. two leading netflix analysts will discuss whether you should

now buy this dip. stay tuned.

welcome back. critical last-half-hour of trading. which way do we go? i think the russell's biggest reversal, the small caps in seven years. the s&p is up 29. we can take a look at the s&p 500 heat map and there's much more green on that screen than

earlier. >> four rows of green now. only had one before. >> exactly. that index today adding 39 points. >> isn't that interesting? >> housing starts fell in december. bob pisani looking at the home builders. they suffered mightily. how are they doing today? >> it's been ugly. and they're sort of trading like there's going to be a slowdown in home building. we've had a dramatic turnaround along with the overall market here. but a lot of other stocks in this sector, let me show you over here. so you're talking about roofing materials here. this is down 30% this month. they're acting like the home remodelling business is going to

slow down dramatically. home depot, there's your big bellwether overall. that's much better than it was earlier. it's also down 13%, 14%. that's roughly in line with the overall mark. but still not a good sign. this was one of the great performers, not only last year, but the last several years. guys, back to you. >> shares of netflix, one of the stocks on a comeback today. >> what do you think? internationally, growth is still there. and the u.s. slowed a bit. that caught everybody's attention. >> actually, i think netflix more than ever has demonstrated that this is a business that can be quickly scaled, and we're starting to see the benefits of that. you look beyond this year, that

should translate into significantly higher operating leverage. so you should see profits start to accelerate in 2017. the visibility that we have now for profits and free cash flow has never been better. so we think netflix, more than any other company, is going to be a major beneficiary of this secular growth in internet television. >> all right, so neil, what about you? are you as positive on their future? what do you think about the reaction in the stock market here today? >> yeah, you know, it's been interesting. we saw 7% move up last night. and then another 7% move down. the big concern for us is the slowdown -- the u.s. subscriber grooet. the subs came in lighter than expected. they lowered the sub expectations for the next quarter about 22% below.

i think you could see the turn potentially. we are getting concerned on the u.s. side. secondly, with markets in turmoil. i think investors are looking toward stocks that have strong margin potential and strong free cap flow generation. this year, netflix is beginning in -- going into a year of investments. for the past five quarters in a row, they've been capped negative. we expect them to be free cash flow negative as they invest in the international side of the business. so it's not really a safe place for investors to go right now. we do like the long-term perspectives. i have to agree that there's big secular wins there for netflix. >> it's been a momentum stock. do you worry that the momentum players are going to take their toll on this company at some point? >> you know, that's right. i should also add that there's

the potential case to be made here. a billion dollars spent on content. we've taken a hard look at the stock. i agree with the idea that this year is going to be a transition year, more or less. but if you move beyond this year, they start to be aligned for international expansion to drive an acceleration in subscriber growth. looking at a potentially sizable addressable market. >> the numbers certainly pointing that way. thank you both. >> thank you. >> talking netflix today. as we talked about, 1%. >> we are in that critical last half-hour. the dow down 133 points. but it would point out at the bottom of that traffic there, the nasdaq is positive now. and it is higher to begin with. >> the nasdaq is up 2/3 of 1%.

>> yes, it is. just another day on wall street. biotech stocks led that move higher to begin with. >> is the worst over for this market? is today's comeback a head fake? david rosenberg will join us next. >> it's not just drillers that are getting hit by oil's plunge. coming up, we'll tell you which regional banks are at risk of energy loans going bad. very important story coming up. , like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision,

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welcome back. 23 minutes to go in this session. what a reversal it's been. i'm joined by art cashin. could we possibly finish positive on the dow or the s&p? >> i think it would be a bit of a long shot. although at this point, the market on close indications have flipped to the buy side. you could get a little help there. today was 60% to 75% about oil. and the rest of it was rumors overnight that the people's bank of china might cut the reserve requirements because of the weak data. when that didn't happen, asia threw a tantrum. and then oil. almost broke the 26 level. luckily, we had a contract

expiring. so late in the day, when it expired. and right around the close, oil came back. and that's the reason we've seen the reversals we have here. >> how do we know if it's for real? >> you watch what happens in asia tomorrow morning. particularly look at hong kong. there are rumors around about certain derivative products that might have to be converted, if hong kong sells off further. you dodged a bullet here. if we closed at the lows, you would have gotten the sell signal. so far, we've avoided that. >> you mentioned if we had gone lower on the s&p, there would be dragons. >> there would be dragons. >> for now, we're well-off that level. thank you so much. we'll let you get back to it. arthur cashin from ubs. >> let's talk about this market and the economy. joining us is david rosenberg. so many people have come through. say the stock market is down 8%, 9% for the year.

the u.s. economy is on solid footing right now. is the market trying to tell us a different story? or is something else beginning on? what do you think? >> well, i think that the stock market is pricing itself globally towards a much slower growth profile going forward. you've got some jurisdictions around the world that are priced for recessions. in canada, the tsx is down more than 20%. and the u.s., as rough as it's been, it's been a little more contained. you know, look, the stock market has about as good a track record as the consensus economics community. i seem to recall that in the fall of 2011, the s&p 500 was down 22%, and if you remember become then, the ecri economic

index, and that was dripping off of everybody's tongues. it was another one of these, very steep, but plain vanilla corrections. looking at where you would go in a recession, this thing would have a lot further on the downside. i'm treating this as a severe correction. and one that isn't quite complete, but i think getting very close. >> i just wonder if people are jumping too much from the binary is there or is there not a recession. the answer is, it depends. one of the interesting things that could happen in the meantime is some sort of panic for dollars in the global financial system, for example. everything does hang on the developments. shouldn't we at least watch the u.s. dollar for signs that this global grab for dollars is getting worse?

>> you look at the tradeway, on a year over year basis, let's talk momentum instead of levels. the u.s. dollar trade has stopped making new highs. it's now down to 10%. so i think from a rate of growth perspective, which is what the markets respond to, the markets at the margin respond to change, not levels. i think actually the dollar becomes less of a tourniquet going in through the balance of this year. i think that's going to be a net positive. certainly less of a negative for the earnings picture. certainly what it means for emerging market debt servicing capacity. i think that art cashin hit the nail on the head, that a lot of this is not really about china. those numbers in china, they weren't that bad. the fed has now been taken out of the picture for almost this year. as soon as i came in and saw oil down 4%, when they got into the

office early this morning, i wasn't surprised to see the futures down 400 points. and i wrote about this the other day. everything this cycle in the past year is correlated right back to the price of oil. >> and we've all become experts on oil now, david. we've all had opinions on where we're going to see a bottom in that commodity. where do you think that is? >> well, in the name of full disclosure, i thought we would have seen it by now. i love being -- i'm a contrarian at heart. at today's level, over 90% of world production is totally uneconomic. the question is how long can these marginal players hang on. the banks have closed the window. the financing is now shut out.

last year one of the big surprises. oil down 50%. barely a dent. running over nine million barrels a day. i think we have to start seeing improvement. we have to look at inventory data. maybe that's a story that unfolds by the second half of the year. they're going to have a lot more clarity. once the oil price bottoms, a lot of other things that have been underlined are beginning to be turned around. >> we've got very little time, but we glossed over this really great chart that you sent us. this is a price chart of oil and you circled the times when we've been in recession. and every time but this one, oil prices have spiked at that point when we went into recession. that was one of the causes, or maybe it was one of the symptoms of the recession. we're much, much lower this time. are we likely to have a recession with oil prices lower this time? that's the big question, i

guess. >> not at all. here's the reality. it happens in every cycle when oil prices go down, the producers get hit immediately. and so the losses get concentrated on the data. of course, this has been a very long bear market in oil. and it's been cataclysmic. we haven't seen the bottom yet. but when you go back, and we had a supply side. you do get a lot of production weakness initially. what happens with the lag is the beneficiaries. which far outnumber the losers, which are consumers. and all those businesses that benefit the producers that use oil as an input to their cost. but this is going to play out next year. when you look this year at consumer spending, wage pressures are starting to percolate a little bit. in the past year, the savings rate went up a full percentage point. >> right. >> i think that as oil prices stabilize, what happens in the past is the savings rate come

down. people feel more willing to spend the cash flow. and i wouldn't be surprised this year, this is the surprise to the recession mongers. it accelerates as something close to 3.5%. 70% of the economy -- >> we know those are going to be the ones that really tell us thousand is all playing out. david rosenberg, thank you. >> thank you. >> joining us on a day that the nasdaq might see its biggest one-day turnaround in 2008. >> bob pisani joining us with a look at how oil is affecting the bank stocks. >> a lot of discussion about the exposure to big banks in general. goldman had a very interesting note. i want to show you some highlights shedding some light on this. very difficult to figure out corner of the world here. overall exposure for the banks to the oil sector here. outstanding debt. bank of america is the biggest one at 21 billion. citigroup is pretty big, too.

gold is not in the report, but we understand their exposure. so the question now is what is the percentage of the total bank loans? is this a big amount? is it a little amount? here's the percentages. some people might be surprised it's not as big as a lot of people anticipated. the largest percentage exposure is morgan stanley at 5%. the question now is is there enough reserves to have enough for them to cover reserves. here's the reserves right now. 2.3% of the oil loans outstanding. citigroup at three. pnc, jp morgan. this is a little bit higher than the prior quarter, but not dramatically so. back to you. >> thank you, bob. this is the issue everybody zeroing in on. you just heard david rosenberg. same thing. everyone watching the price of oil. that said, the major averages

are staging quite a comeback. dominic chu is tracking some stocks that are cheap for the asking. what did you find? >> here's the interesting thing. wlorntd you believe this is short covering, or whether you believe this is a fundamental buying opportunity, there has been some idea of safetsafety. involves melding some of those factors together and seeing what you come up with. we put an example together. the s&p 500, we looked at all the stocks between the s&p that trade below the average price-to-earnings ratio for the s&p. that's around 17 right now. we got rid of all those stocks that traded above it. so with rich valuations. we said look at the average dividend yield. it's about 2.2% right now. we only want to look at stocks from that group of stocks that trades above 2.2% in terms of yield. and then, just in case there's a falling knife or a lot of

negative momentum to the stock. we said that these stocks had to actually be positive price-return wise over the last six and 12 months. out of those 500 stocks in the s&p 500 thereabouts, only three passed all those screens. the first one here is a utility company based in pennsylvania, ppl shares. over the last year, they were down about 8% here. but still, if you take a look at some of those ways we go about it, they pay a nice dividend yield. also another one to take a look at. a financial company insurance wise. cincinnati financial. that's also one that passed those screens. and then nisource, cincinnati financial, and ppl, three of the socks -- i put them up on twitter. again, guys. bill, kelly. some interesting takes on whether or not you can blend value and some momentum to see whether their value plays out that may be relatively safe given the way the market's performed over the past years. back over to you.

>> all right, dom, thank you very much. mike santoli joining us. we're in front of the post where they trade shares of square, which filled below its ipo price. it's been one of the classic story stocks. >> many of them, actually, really got surrendered by the market. square. if you look at gopro. lending club. they'd be going down almost in a straight line for a while now. i feel like in this kind of market, investors have to be willing to take a leap of faith and say go figure out a business model. that's not really the operating principle anymore. >> you mentioned this earlier, and sure enough we saw it materialize. so explain, is it that people just sort of short these names too much? >> it seemed that basically you had gotten to such extremes. a small cap growth index. it was down 3.7% intraday today.

and that's already after having been in a bear market. so it seems as if you're having funds in general that are stressed on their longs, they're also short something. and either prudence says take some of those shorts in, or you have the general call for reduce exposures in general. and that also benefits the short. so i do think there's beginning to be a dynamic. the damage is going to be undone. >> one of the hallmarks of this market, the gibbing of the year, just didn't have any buyers. nobody wanted to step up. seeing a little nibbling here. >> there's the question. is this real buying? i think in general, something hanging over this market is last thursday. tremendously one way up day, 2%, look great, volume was strong.

i think this market passed a lot of those tests. at least on a realtime basis. but we'll see if it passes. >> we are joking with art cashin, we didn't know it could move up anymore. now it's down about 31 points. >> and it feels very mechanical. it feels like okay, let's take in some bets, lay off these risks. >> we'll see you more at the top of the hour, mike. thank you. as i mentioned, the dow is now down 234 points. but a few moments ago, it was only down about 140. so we're well-off the lows. but we're also well-off the highs. sitting in the middle here, watching gauges like the transport index, which is down 30 points. the s&p is now back down about 21. nasdaq trying to hang on to positive territory. >> back to headquarters and seema mody. what do you have for us? >> what a major reversal in stocks. the dow was down as much as 560 points. take a look at where the dow is trading now. down i believe less than 300

points now. but take a look at year-to-date performance and you'll find the dow still down 10% year to date. the nasdaq the big underperformer, down 13%. the s&p 500 a loss of around 10%. but if you're looking for some bright spots, take a look at shares of gnc. the company reporting same store sales growth at nearly 1% for the fourth quarter and seeing earnings will come in at the high end of the previous range. it's a select group of stocks also leading the nasdaq back into positive territory. we're talking about microchip technology up about 3%, making another deal. despite a reversal in today's trades. a list of stock. hewlett-packard and game stock among them. those stocks trading around 1% and 3% lower. according to reuters, a number

of new 52-week lows on the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq. the most on a single day since november of 2008. now, investors searching for safety in the selloff. the yield on the benchmark. ten-year note below 2%. as you can see right there. also, keep an eye on hyg. that's the etf for high yield. high yield has been a concern for investors. corporate debt continues to be a big part of the story. that's something that we've been speaking to with a variety of different strategists. the hyg down about three quarters of a percent today, but over the past three weeks, it is the first three trading weeks of 2016, down about 12%. bill and kelly? >> all right, seema, thank you very much. joining us on the floor here, the big board with about seven minutes left in the trading session. we have our friends from lumen sales. >> it's great to be with you. >> what do you think of this market?

i guess it depends on time of the day. it has changed so often. it's like the weather in denver. >> haphazard. schizophrenic. we can come up with more descripti descriptions. average stock in the s&p 500 off 22% from its 52-week high. if we're not in a bear market, we're pretty darn close. by that measure. >> but do you have the shopping list out? are you picking up names here? >> absolutely. here's why. more than 80% of investors today are either bearish or neutral. historically, that's a good time to be buying. dollar general. because wal-mart getting out of the smaller size stores. dollar merger makes the playing field smaller. and a good play on better employment, lower gas prices. snap-on tools. the sales have been quite robust. more people are repairing their cars.

finally, long-term you make great money in spinout stocks. wilcox enterprises, which is a power generation company. i think that's an opportunity as well. all value opportunities. >> what are you doing with this market here? >> we also like certain sectors in the market. i think you have to be a little bit discriminate with the sectors. certainly high yield space. anything energy is very problematic. >> so that's the areas you would avoid? >> if you look at the u.s. consumer, the best is since 2007. so you have to like certain sectors. we have a sector rotation, etf with jp morgan. we are 20% in cash. there's going to be more

opportunities. we like technology. certain sectors are very affected. >> jamie dimon said he doesn't see a recession on the horizon. >> they shouldn't be lowering interest rates. the fed should always be mindful of their number one mission, price stability. probability of a u.s. recession is less than 20%. profits will probably be up 4% to 5%. cash flow is better than earnings. >> you've got to take off. >> i'll see you top of the hour, gentlemen. thank you. >> let me just show you how we've traded today. bob pisani is here joining us. just a quick recap with about three and a half minutes left in the trading session today. the dow from the get-go this morning, unlike recent markets

where we saw a rally that failed on the open in the morning. the dow down on the open. at the low of the day, 566 points. and then they just started that comeback around 1:00 eastern time today. it took us back. if we have a six-month charlottcharlottt, it took us back to lows in august. we got back to those lows he was after. his number was based on the s&p at around 1865. price of oil today back to a 13-year low. taking us below $27 a barrel. the yield on the ten-year note down to 1.93%, taking us back to a low we saw last october. so some benchmarks were taken out today. >> this is at least a short-term

selling climbed. the market internals when things turned around were screwy. twilight zone numbers. this is the worst since 2008. 1347 new lows at the nyc. that's 40% of the new york stock exchange at new lows. twice normal volume. in the past, these have been associated with at least short-term selling climaxes. here's what we can't determine. are we in a real bear market? if we're in a bear market, you get rallies short-term. are we in a bear market or not? >> i don't think we are. i think you talked a little bit earlier today. i think the type of move that we've seen is very consistent with a lot of these margin calls. you see a lot of reversal in that price. we don't think it's a bear market. >> what do you think, david?

>> secular pull. but the key is, i'm telling my clients expected rates to return on stocks the next two to three years is about 7%. so if you're a good active investor, you're going to get eight or better. 8% annualized returns with some excess. >> do you think any of this puts the fed on old? steve liesman is on the record today as saying he doesn't think they're going to do anything in march. >> the fed needs to continue to be mindful of low inflation. if you keep inflation rates low, that's a great backdrop for the stock market. i only saw what happened when the inflation was out of control. that's the biggest killer for stock returns. >> we're going to put you back momentarily as we're going to close things out on a crazy day. the dow down 566 at the lows of

the day. down about 240 right now. i shares by black rock. stay tuned. a lot coming up on the second hour of "the closing bell." i'll see you tomorrow. thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell", everybody. i'm kelly evans. a dramatic reversal, capping another wild day of trading. th the dow was down over 500 points before staging a huge comeback. it cut those losses by more than half, beginning out with a decline of 246 points. still a drop of 1.5%. meanwhile, the nasdaq and the russell 2000 crept into positive territory during this session after posing steep losses earlier. the russell did manage to close positive, just shy of that four digit.

the natsdaq couldn't quite do i. the s&p was down more than 1% in the session today. we have bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. bertha coombs over at the nasdaq market site. and jackie deangelis watching oil, which has dictated so many of these moves at the nymex. but first, mike santoli, what do you make of today's market action? >> i think you could start to make a case that maybe the fever broke. we came sb the day down 8% year to date ininto the day down 8% year to date in the s&p 500. and you're still off another percent. i think the selling stopped at logical levels. we got back down towards those october 2014 lows. that being said, you would have maybe liked to have seen certain other elements of real buying stampede towards the close take place. so i think the jury is still out, but you obviously were so strict on the downside, it was good to see that you just didn't continue to spill into the close. >> let's get the full tally now.

>> it was a wild day. the turnaround came in the middle of the day when we saw numbers that were just straight out bizarre. put that s&p 500 back up there, and i'll show you, the low on the day at 12:30 eastern time was 1812 on the s&p 500. 1812. now, we moved from there right up. you can put up the s&p intraday for me. we moved all the way up almost 60 points to 1876. that was the highs for the day. 1876. just prior to 3:00 or so. then we fell back to 1859. what happened, in the middle of the day, we hit numbers that were twilight zone numbers. we have rod syrling. i'll show you what happened here. 30-1. that is a strange number. you have to go back to 2008 to see that. we had 1347 new lows. that's about 40% of the entire new york stock exchange. again, you've got to go back at

least to 2008 to see that. finally, we had much heavier than normal volume. you put this all together, you get classic climax. when we hit these bizarre numbers around 12:30, the market just started lifting. the transports moved 300 points from the low to the highs. 6,400 at the low, all the way up to roughly 300 points. i want to point out energy stocks turning around. look at chesapeake. $2.69 at one point. 25% to end not far from the highs. look at that. a lot of small names in energy had very big days. guys, back to you. >> that's a point. even saw joy global having a decent session. let's get over to the nasdaq, though. that one was in positive territory towards the end of the day, trying to stage its biggest come back since 2008.

but where do things settle out? >> yeah, just shy, kelly. the nasdaq composite has only managed to close higher just twice this year. each of those, it's only been up about one point or so. not a big huge move. we are seeing today, it's really a small cap story. the small caps have done very well. we also saw chips do very well. good news there. microchip. you also had linear technology was a better outlook. so that lifted the sector. apple today outperforming the momentum stocks. it got very close to testing that august 25th low of $92 but didn't get that close and ended up higher on the day helping to lift things here. not enough for the nasdaq composite. but the real story today was a reversal in the biotechs. traders saying it appears as though sellers got a bit tired of selling. the biotechs have been the worst hit. today they were the leaders lifting other health care names in the process.

back the you. >> taking the baton there from iowa. bertha, thank you. oil settled at its lowest level in more than 20 years. we don't want to overlook the significance of what happened in the oil pits today, jackie. >> that's right. the big question now is have we bottomed here? the intraday low today, $26.19. when you test lows like that, people start to ask these kinds of questions. but by all accounts, the folks that i'm speaking to saying i don't think we've bottomed here. why? there are a lot of reasons to still see pressure on crude oil. supply and demand are still one of the main factors. but also these worries about price wars occurring in the middle east between saudi arabia and also iran. fears over china probably will persist in the marketplace, and global growth. these are things that impact the demand side of the equation. also when you see u.s. equities with this kind of volatility, crude traders get a little bit nervous. so on the supply side of the story, we are going to get numbers from the department of energy tomorrow, expecting to

see more bills across the board. that could add more pressure. remember, the last couple of weeks, we saw huge builds. especially in the products in gasoline. currently when you look at the year to date chart for crude oil, it has been a blood bath. some people are saying this could continue to go down. we should just wash out a little bit more. and that will be the time to call the bottom and start to come back up. but it's anyone's guess at this point. >> it certainly is. it continues to defy predictions for now. thank you. turning to today's panel, is our own mike santoli along with carol roth, and for more on today's market action, art cashin joins us fresh off the floor. and brian kelly is here as well. art, we softened up a little bit. what happened there in the final minutes? >> i think we saw a couple of things happen. oil was a major pressure all day, as was concern about china. they failed to cut the reserve

requirements. late in the day, that contract expired. we dodged a big bullet. you would have reconfirmed the sell signal. and the fact that we did not is very beneficial. >> carol? >> it's interesting to me that some of the names that we saw rebound today really have nothing to do with the oil story or the china story. names like twitter and scare, which actually tested lows today. and ended up in green at the end of day. so it was interesting to me that as buyers were getting back into the market, this they were looking at these names and going wow, maybe there's a story here and we should be getting into those names. >> macy's was one standout for much of the session. when we were looking at the markets, even at the very lows of the session, there were some

things -- you mentioned twitter. there was a macy's that was doing okay. even a joy global. like kate spade wasn't down that much. what was different about what we witnessed? >> i think there's a very specific thesis on an individual name, you can actually have a little bit of divergence there. macy's, you had green light capital buying in now. people looking for special situations. there could be a deal, there could be some kind of announcement here. netflix really traded in and out of the green during parts of the day. they had earnings. yesterday, i was saying it would be a great sign if we started to focus a little bit more on earnings driven names and individual company stories. that really is not happening in a big way. this is still oil, credit, macro stuff. >> ibm one of the worst performers on the dow, but we're focusing on exxon and chevron. art, you mentioned if we had closed at the lows, that would have been a big problem. what happens, even when we just test these new levels? how many people have said you've

got to watch those levels going back to august 24th. whenever a trading day like today happens, just the fact that we went down to those levels, how does that set us up going forward? >> not only did you take out the lows of the 24th, you went back and took out the lows of the ebola crisis. so that tells you how frenetic the selling actually was at the worst. it was maybe not the full sense of capitulation you want. but it was very close. >> one name we're also watching is deutsche bank. brian kelly, i turn to you on this. you've been watching people that hey, ultimately, if we've got a commodity problem, if you watch the way that glen corps is trading, it does seem to be hurting some of the european banks. fairly or unfairly do you think? should people be focusing there as a source of real trouble if these prices continue to drop? >> well, i think it's fair. bank of america had a piece out that says the banks in general

are exposed to glen corps to the tune of about $100 billion. it's a lot of money. maybe not to you, kelly, but to me. >> very funny. >> now it's also unsecured debt. the banks are on the hook. it's not glenn corps who's on the hook. at this prices, glen corps equity looks like it's going to work less. when you look at some of the banks, deutsche bank, biggest exposed. look at some of the swiss banks. bank of america also said that credit swiss and ubs would not be able to withstand the writedown they would need to take if glen corps had an issue. so when you add all those things up, and the price action has been horrible out of the italian banks, i think this is completely justified. the banks in europe are trouble. >> yeah, a lot of those italian banks are trading almost like penny stocks. when we were watching asia, and this is a discussion we were just having with art the last hour as well, brian. many people are watching places

like hong con with the dollar peg, or they're watching just the chinese markets in general here. what's really at stake? i mean, for the next move here, where do investors need to be watching? >> you have to watch china. that to me is the biggest story out there right now. what they're beginning to going their currency. they need to devalue that currency. they need to devalue it significantly. they've been trying to defend that currency. it's trading a quantitative tightening, which is making the economy worse in china. i think at some point, you're going to get a one off big devaluation. if you're an investor, you have to watch that space like a hawk. >> but it does sound like what brian is saying is investors should be rooting for that to happen. the chinese themselves perhaps should be coming to terms with the sense that it would be better in the long run than trying to prop it up. >> you know that i brought china up as a big issue last year. and actually thougfought with a number of people over whether or not it was an important issue. from my perspective, i think this is more than just a

currency game. i'm very worried about the underlying narrative of whether you can really have a capitalist economy under a communist regime. i think at the end of the day that they're trying to do something that the dynamic forces of the people who are in control and benefiting is not going to let happen. and to me, that is the underpinnings of the story. so they can try what they will with the currency. they can have their stock market, which isn't really correlated to the economy. but to me, i feel like the narrative has been exposed here. >> the same question, art. what should we be watching in terms of contagion that could continue to affect the rest of the world? >> well, i agree that china needs to devalue their currency. but no man is an island and that will have a reaction in other currencies around. i personally am going to keep watching hong kong. there are rumors around about a lot of derivatives that if they break a certain level, banks, brokers, and others will have to

make good on them. so that's reminiscent of 2008. you don't want that kind of thing spilling out. >> we also have the ecb tomorrow. what are we expecting out of mario draghi? if you're going to get real negative on the european banks, you better hope he doesn't lob something into the market that's going to say okay, he's got more weapons. >> plenty of people point the finger. european central bank meeting in december for some failure to deliver there. >> that was part of the rumor that helped turn the market, that he was going to deliver something good. >> we'll see what happens in the morning. thank you for joining us. brian kelly, thank you very much. there's much more coming up with brian and the rest of the "fast money" crew today at 5:00. they've got the best plays to whether this year's volatility in their bear market playbook. much more still ahead here, including whether we're on the verge of a dollar liquidity crisis. plus, we'll look at the damaging impact sliding oil prices are having on the regional banking industry.

and we'll hear what jamie dimon said about the oil drop. keep it right here. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.

that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. there's a short squeeze for dollars. the dollar, because it's a

world's reserve currency, has a lot of dollar denominated debt. there's a squeeze. so they have to buy dollars. very similar to 1980 to 1987, really. so once that squeeze is over, it undermines the dollar longer term. we're really going to be thinking hard, what is a good reserve currency? what is safe in investing? >> intriguing. that was ray dalio of bridgewater associates on "squawk box" for more on what some are calling a potential squeeze. it's unusual to be talking about the dollar. what does this say to you? what's happening at the market and the market's attention to it. >> so many moving parts.

we actually digest that quite well. i've been telling our clients, don't panic. i think it's most people's base case. i think we muddle through. >> i wonder if we're talking in a way almost too much about economic fundamentals. the real issue that we'd love to hear your perspective on is what ray dalio was just talking about. is there a reason why all of a sudden around the world people are trying to get their hands on the u.s. dollar? and if so, what does that mean? what risks does that imply? >> that was one issue that we highlighted the last several years. a lot of companies were borrowing. so they're short dollars.

>> their own currencies. >> yes, that's right. >> so their borrowing is in u.s. dollars. >> interestingly enough, you look at china, and they're actually the biggest holder of our debt. they're on the flip side of that trade. >> you still have a natural inflow of dollars. whereas if you're a telecomm company in nigeria, it's beginning to be a problem. >> doesn't that get to why oil is at the center of all of this. fewer dollars flying out to the rest of the world. if you're selling oil for dollars. and global trade flows are down. there's this perception that there are fewer dollars at the ready and you have to go out and buy them.

>> exchange stocks for them. >> these countries are used to oil at 1.50. the dollar is just rolling in. this ten-year massive rally, 2002 to 2013. china was growing 10%, 12%. all of a sudden these guys are looking great. >> and as you've said, this isn't necessarily the fed's fault. even if you factor in the rate hike. the issue is the dollar is still the fed's currency. what does the central bank need to do about this? >> unfortunately, the fed runs monetary policy. it has some impact on emerging markets. it's a game changer. the first time i ever had the fed really blame or cause policy from expersonternal factors.

the bar is still very high. >> at least we'll watch the rhetoric from janet yellen and see if they begin to bring this back in. for now, thank you. >> always a pleasure. >> we try to sort out what's happening globally. let's send it to seema mody for a market flash. >> two tech stocks on the move. starting with fireeye. revenues expectation of 184 to $185 million. that is below expectations. also, fireeye announcing the acquisition of inside partners for $200 million. you see the stock higher by 7.5% after hours. now, switching focus. sit r citrix systems. he has been appointed president and ceo effective january 25th. the interim president and ceo continues his role as executive chairman. the stock up .6 of a percent after hours. >> we're going to have much more on this market volatility. still to come here, including

what jamie dimon is investing right now. and as commodities continue downward, banks are feeling the pain. up next, how the drop in crude is affecting regional banks. they've been a popular one. "closing bell" back in two. its intelligent drive is msystems...ng. paradigm-shifting.

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crude started the day above $28 a barrel. quickly fell to a low of $26.19. jamie dimon isn't worried about the plunge in oil prices and how it might affect the big bank, which does have exposure to energy to various loans. he sat down with joe kernin, becky quick and andrew ross sorkin to discuss. >> the structure of the oil markets is completely different. the consumer has a lot more money in their pocket. this issue about are they spending it? jp morgan chase institute, we actually look at data of real accounts, real spending, debit cards, credit cards, people writing checks. it looks like they're getting the money.

>> enp firms going back. >> no, it just changes the cash flows and the expenditures. $27 oil -- >> whatever you do, don't worry about jp morgan chase. they're not like high yield. we'll probably have to throw up $50 million in reserves. that's okay. it's not going to dent anything that we're doing. >> where is your prediction for where oil goes? you did double your loan loss provision in q4. >> if i could, i would have done more. but if i could, i would have put

up another 3 or $4 million. i don't know. the forward curve of oil has traded at $40. i would tell you it's probably the best guess right there. >> over the years, i've asked you where jamie dimon puts his money. besides the stock that you have in jp morgan. what does jamie dimon do right mow? >> i'm very consistent. i have probably some of the same stops. at first, i'm so restricted. if i buy, i can almost never sell. when i have extra money, i put it in stock i think is going to go up over the next five or ten years. i like having a little bit of a dividend. right now, i wouldn't buy treasuries. i think if you actually asked me, some credit is the price range. not the energy side. it's being priced. like there is a bad reception. unless you think there's going to be a bad reception, even there, you might get a semi semi-decent return. but i think buying long-term is

the best thing to do. >> and you're not going to give us any names? >> no. >> to be where you are, talking about risk managers. the classic thing about the financial crisis is you guys probably -- you and lloyd and others saw what was coming and de-risked in certain ways, which made it look like you're betting against -- i don't know why you get fined for something like that. anything right now that you've done that you've looked at in the entire world where you're saying whoa. >> if you actually sat, we spend a lot of time managing risk, derisking. making the risk a little damage. it's called stress test. >> i think he knew that.

adverse consequences that really hurt us. that can come out of -- i think a brexit could have consequences we don't understand. it's not going to affect the economy in the next six months. geopolitics always has the risk. but the way we look at risk is everything we do. the fed -- look. normalization was a good thing. i think the first 25, 75 doesn't have this tightening effect. as long as the american economy is strong, they should raise a little bit more. >> they might not do it now. >> yeah, but you know what? things come down. employment keeps it from going

up. inflakes has short-term thingti. you can't make certainty around something that is not certain. i think forecasting these rates is really hard to do. and they should just react to the events. i point out -- and most of you aren't old enough to know this. i remember -- i think this is right. when paul volcker raised interest rates 200 basis points in one shot on a sunday night. there was no preparing people for it. >> saying no matter what happens, we'll be okay. >> you know, it's interesting. i hate to be on the other side of jamie dimon, because i have a lot of respect for him. but, you know, his read on the consumer is very backwards looking. when i think about energy and what could end up happening,

it's not just the exposure that the banks have. what about all of those people who are employed in the energy sector? that was the sector that has lifted us up. can't pay their car payments? what does that look like in terms of the economy? i think the picture he's painting is perhaps too rosy, given where we stand with oil right now. >> it seems like he would want to convey that idea. they touch so many consumers in all their businesses. they see realtime what's going on. there are more people who are net beneficiaries that are being punished by the fact that the energy industry is now kind of net loss of jobs probably. i don't really think that his overall message is everything is great. i think it's saying in light of how markets are seized up in this panic, he doesn't really see at this point the u.s. economy following along that path. so he's essentially saying the market is not telling us anything very scary about our own economy. i don't know if that's because, you know, the four speakers who

came right before him were a little more doomsday. and jamie's nature seems to be -- look, i'm going to go against the crowd here. >> wants to put out the fires. >> i think that it would be foolhardy to not think that our economy is going to have some sort of an impact. i think we'll be in better shape than perhaps europe and asia. but that doesn't mean that we're not beginning going to have rep. >> we're going to have more on the impact energy will have on a bunch of banks coming up. we do have a news alert. seema mody has details. >> viacom is cutting the pay of sumner redstone to $2 million for 2015 versus a total of $13 million in 2014. there had been questions surrounding the contribution of him given his health concerns.

viacom also announcing that the bonus of ceo philippe dauman has also declined. for now, back to you. >> seema, thanks. there were trouble reports about redstone's health and whatnot. what happens now? >> there's no doubt that he's obviously receded from the business, whatever his status is day-to-day in terms of actually monitoring the business. also, this company had been accused of overpaying its top management for a while now. this seems a little bit of the gamesmanship, or at least the optics of the board wanting to say let's not fall into that when we don't have to. >> big questions. up next, we'll hear from a fund manager and whether he sees opportunity in any of those economies. plus, more on this wild market day and what could be in store tomorrow. stay tuned. metimes they just dr.

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you experience tv. welcome back. nothing compares to today's action. the dow under pressure all morning. that low of 565 just before 1:00 p.m., and then the blue chip index began a slow and steady

reversal until around 3:00 p.m. that's when we saw a big comback in the final hour of trading. at one point, the dow was actually down only about 120 points. and that gave the bulls a glimmer of hope that we could complete the comeback. we ended the session down 249 points. a time lapse there. the drop in oil prices crushing brazil's economy. now central bank may be ready to act. seema mody has details. >> brazil is facing a tough decision on whether to raise rates as country endures its worst recession in a century. every major headwind that we've been talking about is hurting brazil. the plunging commodities, slowdown in china, political dysfunction, and a massive drop in the currency. now down nearly 60% against the u.s. dollar over the past year. capital outflows have been accelerating, and weaker currency is making its dollar denominated debt much harder to

contain. what's most concerning to economists is brazil's inflation problem. it's one of the reasons president rousseff has been removing decisions from citizens. but the big risk is that higher interest rates could lead brazil into an even deeper recession. that rate decision is due shortly. we'll be coming back to you with that when it comes out. >> all right, thank you. the etf down over 2%. and there was new data out this morning showing the capital outflows even larger than previously thought last year. $735 billion in emerging countries. let's bri a brutal time, sammy, for investors, even when it's a good investment.

what's your best advice today? >> keep calm and invest consistently. don't look at the day-to-day. i put my own money in the market every month. >> in the emerging markets? >> international. both. i think if you take a ten, 20-year view, i think that's the only way to invest. you can't look at it daily, weekly, or monthly. but slowly work your way in. >> what specific ones do you like? >> the chinese internet space. a combination of ten-cent alibaba. if you back into what the stocks are discounting, it's mid to high single digit growth. i think those are really attractively priced. i like aia insurance in hong kong. >> since you spent amerging mar

confidence do you have in the transparency of the information that you're getting? even a company like ali bwe -- alibaba. how comfortable are you? >> i think it's a great question. part of my process is only focusing on free cash flow. i trust the accounts that tell me that there's that much cash. and you look at the bond markets. if that bond is outstanding, how risky are their bonds? you try to triangulate what is happening. talking to them and seeing their track record. if you look at one of the best performing stocks over the last decade, execution, and track record. >> are there other national markets that are maybe beneficiaries of some things going on in environments that have just gotten so cheap? and whether the net energy

importers or other factors? >> it's a great question. the answer is yes. india, philippines are two of the favorite markets. everyone had really high expectations. india is still india. you have fantastic companies. multi-nationals. local subsidiaries that are grow. philippines. i think a lot of conglomerates. you have 100 million people if the country and the average number of cars sold there per year, 250,000. >> yeah, they're big on motorcycles. we have so many more to ask you about, sammy. please come back. for now, though, offering advice to investors in the emerging market. we have breaking news on oil inventories. let's get to jackie deangelis with those numbers. >> we were talking about these numbers earlier. we're going to hear from the department of energy tomorrow.

we've got to build to 4.6 million barrels. this is definitely a bearish number. we were looking for a little bit less than three million. so coming at a time where prices are under pressure, getting a significant build like this isn't going to help this picture out. of course, this is a voluntary report. it's not necessarily all inclusive. we do have to see what the doe says tomorrow. and if it mirrors this. but this is typically a report that sets us up. so if it's any indication of what we're going to see in tomorrow's trade, we could see more pressure here. kelly? >> probably the last thing anybody wanted to hear, jackie, unless they're short this space. >> sorry. >> hey, you're just telling it like it is. appreciate it. our jackie deangelis. another increase, as she mentioned there. coming up, real banks getting slammed by the continuing oil collapse. we're going to talk with the wall street veteran about that. and we'll speak exclusively to ceo of raymond james to talk about earnings and the broader environment. we're back in a moment. watson, you sound like a fan. millions look to you for advice.

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welcome back. we talked about the rerent -- relentless drop in oil. take a look at dallas-based comerica. regions financial down 2%. let's now bring in dick bove. good to have you on the line. do you think there are more risks to the downside with a lot of these regional banks? or is a lot of this getting priced in? >> i think there's more risk on the downside.

i think basically, if the price -- and i have no idea what the price of oil is going. if the price of oil continues to remain weak, there's a kind of domino effect. you have direct losses as a result of investments that the banks have made. you have a whole bunch of people who lose their jobs and therefore they don't make payments on their credit cards, their automobiles, on their houses. and then you have commercial real estate in the area around where the company was that went under. essentially the rent doesn't come in and those loans go bad. we saw this in the 1980s when there was a natural resource problem. oil prices have to go up in order for regional banks to avoid any hits here. >> dick, it's carol roth. are there any banks in particular that are in regions that you feel like are more

favorable, perhaps don't have the exposure either to making the energy loans or that the people that are in the area aren't quite as much at risk of unemployment? >> well, there's obviously -- you know, if you're not on the gulf coast, if you're not in the midwest, you know, if you're in the southeast, companies like bb&t or sun trust, they have investors in energy. but they're not as heavily involved as let's say one of the banks you mentioned, regents financial, which is on the gulf coast, or comerica which is sitting in dallas. so yes, i mean, florida banks are not, you know, exposed to energy in a major way. so there are regions of the country where you don't have the same degree of risk that you do with the energy areas of the country. >> dick, beyond just the energy exposure. i mean, obviously the whole space is now also being pressured by what's happening with the yield curve. which i guess by extension is somewhat related to energy.

is there any mispricing going on in the regional bank space? have people just thrown in the towel here with the weakness we've seen so far this year? >> yeah, i think they are. basically what we're talking about is there are 13 banks that have reported earnings in the last four days. you know, that i cover. every one of the 13 beat the earnings estimates and they did so because the long volume is decent because their margins are fine. because of losses at the moment are low, and their costs are under control. if you were to get oil to just go back to 31, $32 a barrel, people would start to refocus on the fact that the fundamentals of these companies are pretty good right now. >> right. >> and so stocks would come back pretty strongly. >> as with so much of the market, it really comes back to that oil price. for now, dick, thanks for your views. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. dick bove there. as mentioned, those financials hit hard today.

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just a few moments ago raymond james reported its earnings. they missed on an estimate coming in at 73 cents per share. paul reilly is ceo of the company. and paul, talk about market conditions because it looks like the drop in the market affected you guys? >> yeah, part of the headwinds was the start of last quarter. we built assets in advance and in the end of september we are down 4%. we don't focus on the quarter. at the end of the quarter, we have record over half a trillion and record bank loins and reallocating the deutsche bank advisers this year but it was a tough quarter relative to our normal expectations. >> what about the asset management business, everybody on the street is chasing. but there were flags this season maybe it is not as stable and profitable going forward as everybody thought.

what are you going to do if that tough, competitive environment persists? >> we've been through marketdown turns before. it is our 112th quarter of profitable. we made money in every quarter of '08 and '09. it is just more fun in up markets. our management was up this quarter in revenue and profits. and frankly, we didn't have much equity outflow in the asset management group. some people converted to more defensive strategies. but our advisors who are earning their keep in this kind of market got clients to look long-term and not panic in the short-term movements. >> speaking of headwinds, a couple really in focus for financials lately and they include low and lower interest rates. low and lower oil prices. what is your sensitivity to both? >> well, certainly rising interest rate helps us and our clients. because we could pay them. we did raise our interest rate

to clients, not many did, after the fed moved, and we did. and oil impacts us differently than most. energy are 3% of the bank portfolio and only one emp investment-grade portfolio and the rest are middle market and we added to reserves based on price this is quarter. but a big part of the investment banking practice is the energy business. we have a good energy investment banking and in this type of market there is not a lot to do. >> and that is it, paul, before we let you go. you are beholden to the fact that oil price remains more abundance. so absent an upward catalyst there, are there any other ways you could pull that lever and get more out of the investment banking business? >> well, certainly we're not just oil and gas. our real estate agreement is a big business. we've added to the bioscience and consumer businesses.

so the flatness in last quarter, november and december was all for investment banking and january is a slow start but if the markets could settle and go up a little bit, it will bounce back and energy will be slower. >> as you said. bioscience consumer are areas where people are looking for opportunity. thanks for joining us paul. >> good talking to you. >> paul reilly, ceo of raymond james. stocks today plummeted in tandem with oil. we close up off the lows. but will tomorrow bring more of the same. we'll look ahead to that next. and we'll hear from the oracle ceo and his stock lacking performance when we come back. and can you explain why you recommend synthetic over cedar?

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welcome back. checking in on some other names here. oracle down more than 20% in the past year. the ceo mark hurd had this to say to jim cramer about the stock's performance in realation to peers. >> i think the stock takes care of itself. but it is important to invest into this. we think this is a generational change and we want to be on the leading edge of that. >> things were chillier than normal at dav os today after these comments. >> we compete against two giants

in sap and oracle who are dinosaurs at this point, but they have been around a long time. >> dinosaurs. catch the entire interview coming up on "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m. just before we go, i thought either oracle or be the oracle of the broader markets, mike, tell us what will happen. >> we'll have to tune in to see what mario draghi has to say tomorrow. europe is not at the center of the current storm. nobody is expecting any action. but the streneous rhetoric might give market direction and see if these levels hold and people will say that felt like the fever broke and we might have a decent low. >> and he will talk about tomorrow and i'll talk about the next couple of months. and i'm on the more pessimistic side. i think all of the issues that we're looking at are real issues. i don't think people are panicking. i think that oil and china is real. and if you look at valuation of

the s&p and where earnings should be versus where they are forecast, this market isn't trading at a discount right now. so i imagine this will continue on for quite sometime. >> well we'll check in with you next week. thank you. carl roth, michael santoli on "closing bell." that does it for us. and "fast money" begins right now. it sure does. thanks, kelly. "fast money" does begin right now live from the nasdaq market side overlooking times square. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera in today for melissa lee. our traders on the desk today. hi, guy. tonight on "fast," the man who said sell the s&p until it hits 1900. he's back and he's got an even bolder call on where stocks are going next. plus are you worried we're in a bear market? we have the one sector that history said does well when stocks are in a freefall. we'll tell you what it is. and