>> good morning, global markets rally. stocks jumping as traders close the books on another volatile week. >> plus starbucks shares under pressure after the coffee chain profit forecast disappoints. >> more than 77 million covered by winter weather warnings. almost a quarter of the country's population. it's friday, that's right, friday january 22nd, 2016. worldwide exchange starts right now. good morning and welcome to worldwide exchange. happy friday. we're here on cnbc.

>> i'm wilfred frost. >> we have a very special guest for you coming up in a few minutes. imf deputy managing director. the number two will be joining us live from davos to talk about the state of the global economy on a critical week for markets. >> but first a big bounce in oil prices this morning. check out these numbers. a rise of around about 5% for brent and 4% for wti. we're back above 30 for both measures of oil. 30.7 for wti. 30.6 for brent. among trns a cold snap in the u.s. and europe. plus some analysts say traders with record short positions are looking to cash in after a huge drop in crude so far this year. >> while you were sleeping we saw huge moves overnight in asia. thanks in large part to that bounce in oil. the nikkei in japan closing higher by nearly 6%. those are the biggest daily gain in more than four months. stock there helped by a weaker yen. comments out of the bank of japan.

also giving speculation that central banks are back in the game. boj might unveil new stimulus measures at the policy meeting next week. as for the rest of asia, here's how things finished up the day. what we saw is gains across the board. reversing earlier losses in the week. green across the screen. there's japan, south korea, australia, all finished higher. u.s. futures are higher. europe is higher. global rally pinned on a 5% move in japan. >> but for japan it's also boj stimulus hopes. the day it was dovish people hoping you'd get the same from the bank of japan and that relationship with the yen is important. with the yen weakening today that's helpful. >> yeah. >> let's check in on markets in the u.s. and europe right now. u.s. equity futures pointing to a positive open. the dow called to open up by 160 points. earlier called to open by 200 points so a little off the highs

but still looking at a nice amount of green on the screen. the s&p and nasdaq expected to open up by similar percentages. european stocks are up and meaningfully so. we're also up on the week for all of the indices now. germany is up 1.7. france is leading the charge. the ftse 100 up 1.9%. >> for more on the big moves overnight in asia let's check in with sri. give us a run down. i see a lot of green behind you. >> it's quite extraordinary really, isn't it? the nikkei overshot to the down side earlier on in the week. we lost about a thousand points. over the course of today we made that all up almost. up by 941 points or 6%. the biggest gain in more than four months. so oil is firmer and mary joe

draghi is keeping the door open to more stimulus but you know what, the underlying stressors have not gone away. especially in em asia and em more broadly. we have seen these before. the big question is what you were talking about. next week we have the fomc and the bank of japan. will they deliver and take a leave out of mario draghi's play book? it's all about monetary policy and communication. how dovish are they going to be? that's where we stand. back to you. >> sri, thank you for that. we're following a developing story today. security forces have now retaken control of a popular beach side restaurant. gunmen stormed the place yesterday setting off car bombs and battling government soldiers. al shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack. 20 people were killed. >> now to our news maker of the morning. imf deputy managing director is

in davos this week warning of a financial melt down citing liquidity concerns around the globe. he's joining us now live from the world economic forum. good to see you now. thanks for joining us. >> good to see you sarah, thank you. >> i want to start with the topic which is the stock market in 2016. it's been a brutal start around the world with some global markets and bear markets. you guys just put out a global forecast expecting the global economy to actually grow. less than forecast but still grow from last year. so how do you explain all the selling this year? >> well, the market is in the correction mood. the second issue is if interest rate is on up site it's to not pick up. it has to adjust accordingly and markets are very fragile so i

think it will expand but i will say looking forward, the huger volatilities are back and also it will continue to be with us. let me explain. last year we report the largest market volatilities across all different asset class in the u.s. we measure volatility against the 100 day moving average. it's moving away for 100 day moving average. statistically it's very importa important. s&p moving last year which is the biggest volatility since 1929 in u.s. history. we record 7 standard deviation

moving in the u.s. ten years bonds market which is the largest one since 1972. >> we felt it. i guess the question from here is if we're not in a global recession could all the financial volatility itself lead us there? jamie dimon telling us it rarely happens where financial markets yield recessions on their own but it did happen in 2008. >> no, i think we'll see more volatility but i do think we'll have impact on the gross but not across the situations so we'll continue to forecast on 4% of growth rates and the risk is on down side. do we need more liquidity from the market? when markets are suffering like this, do they need to inject

liquidity? >> markets have a structur structured liquidity illusion. actually the balances was shrinking in the last 18 months. roughly 2%. if you compare with 2 to 3 years. balances extended 2 to 3% of gdp. yes, they continue pumpingly quiddity into the market. so dollar liquidity is very tight today and compare with 12 or 18 months ago. the second issue is the market has a structure issue. it's become such a big issue. overgoes so fast the real issue when interconnectivity expands it can increase dramatically.

across a different class of assets 7080%. and everyone moving to the same direction. we found a drop dramatically. now that's a real concern. it's very important to understand the market liquidity situation. understand when they move dramatically into one direction. they need to prepare the liquidity for the market. >> the other key question is communication by central banks. saw the power mario draghi still has yesterday. there's questions as to what china is doing with it's currency and financial markets and the management of its economy. even secretary lu told us that the chinese need to communicate better and that's what is leading to all the uncertainty. as imf does this do you advise governments and central banks on

policy. have you spoken with them and reiterated this message? is it going to be coming smoother later on in the year? >> yes we did. we all have to understand that it's two big step moments. to the manager flexible market base. this is a bigger move. the second is a move further away from dollar packing to the basket. it's not an easy process. it's got to be a banking process. so all of those happen and all to asia as well. so communication is extremely important. so tell the market what is the policy line and what is fixing those things. are things very important? we do advise chinese authorities to bring more information with the market and the chief economy

a few days ago also say and do more communication to provide clarity. it's very important for china to manage it. very difficult to manage it and also to help to understand the process to reduce the volatility. >> hopefully that will improve then. thank you for joining us from davos this morning. my take away there, volatility is here to stay. even if we're not in a global recession. >> absolutely right. let's get to some corporate news. starbucks first quarter profit beat forecast on strong sales of christmas gift cards and merchandise. same store sales rising 8% topping estimates but growth was slower than expected in china, europe and the asia pacific regions. also disappointing investors. shares falling 4% in after

hours. particularly the news in china surprising given that howard schultz was talking up trade there a few weeks ago. slightly beating forecasts. the world's top oil services firm with a $10 billion buy back and cuts 10,000 jobs in the quarter. it's cut a quarter of its work force since november 2014 up 3% in after hours. >> american express fell 4%. the company plans to cut $1 billion in cost by the end of 2017 acknowledging efforts aren't paying off yet. >> other corporate movers to watch. boeing will be cutting production of the 747-8 jumbo jet in half. the 747-8 is mostly used as a

cargo jet but will also be part of an upgrade to the air force one presidential fleet. reuters reporting yahoo! will decide it's next strategic steps. sources say the company spurned several potential buyers for its internet business this month including private equity firms. last month remember yahoo! said it would seek a tax free spin off of the web business which would take at least a year. sap raising it's 2017 profit and outlook revenue noting progress it's making and shifting from a package software to an internet based cloud service supplier. last week the german company preannounced better than expected 2015 results on strong renewals of software prices but it gave an outlook on 2016. shares down almost 2%. when we come back if you want to understand what's going on in the asian markets right now which you need to you have to listen to our next guest. fred newman will be joining us after a short break.

>> but first, we want to hear from you. our twitter question this morning, we have asked you what will drive markets next week? you've got a lot of hashtags to choose from there. will it be earnings, china, or perhaps the color of sarah's dress. i hope it's not what you're wearing today because black does not bode well today. >> i hope you can spell color right. it's the english language. i can still spell it like i used to. >> open ending. >> pick other things as well as what we offered up there. stay tuned with us. you're watching worldwide exchange on cnbc.

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welcome back. a big move in oil prices this morning. that has to be front and center as we see wti move above that level. brent crude also trading higher. that's helping lift stocks. stocks managed to eek out a modest rally while futures are climbing back and climbing back bigger this morning. s&p futures up 22. dow up 168. interesting fact here wilfred, we saw negative territory on the s&p 500. every day so far in 2016. we'll see if we dip back into negative today or if we break the trend. now to today's trade of the day. if mario draghi does inject more stimulus the move could have the

potential to bank versus the dollar. here's what they found. mcdonald's, home depot and united health were actually the topper formers. interesting, home depot is a domestic play. the others not so much. they all fell among others. for more you can go to cnbc.com and check out cnbc probut we could be getting used to another weaker euro. >> we could, indeed. i'm not sure i buy that one though i have to say. there's got to be too many other factors for goldman sachs and mcdonald's to be the big movers off the back of the euro. >> agree so hints of easing yesterday in march. we have to wait and see if we get it. >> switching to china, many market watchers calling the sell off an overreaction to china's weak economic picture. is that true and how important

is china to the rest of the world? here to discuss is the co-head of asian economic research at hsbc. he joins us live from hong kong. a very good morning from here. good afternoon to you. >> good morning. >> a lot of bearishness out there about china. what would have been the key elements in the economy and is it as bearish as the market suggests. >> the headlines are screaming china might be falling off a cliff but it's not exactly true. we saw a bit of a stabilization coming in over the second half of the year. home sales holding up. car sales picking up so that

still means china will slow but won't be the end of the world for the rest of us. >> let's touch on the currency. that caused a lot of confusion around the world year to date. how significant are the moves that the chinese central bank are making with the currency? >> well, there's a lot of misunderstanding about what exactly the chinese are trying to do. the fear was that china is going to join the currency wars and aggressively depreciate the currency but really move away from a dollar peg more toward a basket peg and that means in economic terms they're not trying to out compete everybody and trying to regain global market share. they're really just trying to move away from the u.s. dollar but still going to maintain currency stability and they have perhaps not been as clear as the markets would have liked but that's been the strategy and that doesn't necessarily mean china is going to shoot the

first round in another currency war. >> help us understand the strategy for u.s. investors investing in american corporations that do business in china. the chairman and ceo of starbucks yesterday in the conference call on the company conference call said china is here to stay. quote, the buffeting the chinese economy is taking during today's period of transition is necessary for it to move into it's next stage of development if you own a consumer name in the u.s. that does business in china do you have to be worried? >> well, china is slowing and even in a consumer segment we see some reduction or slowing in expenditure. that's probably inevitable but it's correct to view this as a necessary adjustment. in fact we'd be worry first degree the chinese economy suddenly accelerated on the back of massive injection of debt. we want to see gradually slower growth but more healthy growth and that's going to be 2 to 3

year story. now for u.s. consumer companies ignoring china would be probably a strategic mistake. yes in the short run you might take a bit of pain but it's still going to be the biggest game in town. look at the car market. the u.s. had record car sales last year. china beat it hansomly despite slowing sales. >> if we did get a really surprise fall in chinese growth what would that mean for the u.s. and the global economy? a lot of doom and gloom in terms of the contagion of markets. would there be contagion of economic performance as well? >> well, the primary impact is going to be psychological. if the chinese economy slows in itself it shouldn't sort of bring down the global economy. remember that china's economy in terms of size today is roughly the same as japan was in 1989 at the height of its bubble but when the bubble burst and japan slowed down it didn't bring down

the global economy and similarly slowing china should be digestible but make no mistake if china goes into a recession or hard landing that would hurt because the global backdrop is weeker but a slowing china we can live with. >> are you not afraid of the outflows coming out of china? the he enormous amounts of money? billions as we reported earlier this week flowing out of markets in china? are they able to stem that? are they able to control their currency and markets amid a wave of investors pulling money out? >> that certainly is a concern. we see rising capital outflows but here too we need to be a bit more cautious because roughly half of what has been exported is the debt. they previously borrowed in u.s. dollars and brought that money on shore and are paying down that debt and that's recorded as a capital outflow so we estimate about half of the hot money

outflows are really just paying down debt. this doesn't mean we shouldn't worry about it but the chinese are quite aware of this issue and actually tightened capital controls in the last several months and we think they'll be effective at least in the short-term and they're still sitting on 3.3 trillion dollars worth of foreign exchange reserve so that should continue for quite sometime. >> it sounds like you feel the negativity around china has been overdone and you and hsbc telling clients to invest selectively into the shanghai hong kong markets. >> we're very selectively and very cautiously, in fact, our equity strategist versus gone overweight in china market because of valuations on china itself but growth will continue to slow. it could pressure earnings

growth but asia doesn't have a problem of imminent financial stress so this idea that another currency crisis is in the making that is an exaggerated view. we have a growth problem and it will be long before we get out of this hole. >> that was upbeat. a care and treatment of the u.s. population is now under some kind of winter storm warning. thousands of flight delays and cancellations already. a live report from reagan national airport in d.c. next. but grant johnston joins us from kxsa in dallas ft. worth with the latest. how bad is it going to be? >> travel is going to be very difficult if not impossible in all of these locations. the pink represents a winter storm warning. it's been snowing most of the night in little rock and memphis. that will spread toward nashville and even atlanta could see snow. changes to a blizzard warning

tonight and tomorrow. washington d.c., baltimore, philadelphia, new york city could see anywhere from 2 to 3 feet of snow in that blizzard warning. so the snow comes out of arkansas and pushing up into the mid-atlantic. late tonight and tomorrow. you can see across the country. more wet weather moving on shore in the west coast cold and sunny in the central plains. temperatures will be on the cold side to the north and to the east especially. more on worldwide exchange coming up right after this. oppo where self-proclaimed financial superstars pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you! i can...i can... savvy investors check their financial pro's background by visiting smartcheck.gov performance... ...reimagined.

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very good morning to you on this friday. still to come here this morning's top stories including a huge rally in the nikkei overnight plus a live report from reagan national airport where d.c. is bracing for a blizzard. >> plus, remember this, move over, there's a new youtube sensation in town. we'll tell you who now owns the record for the fastest to reach 1 billion views. stay tuned. you're watching worldwide exchange on cnbc. first in business worldwide. always obvious. por sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

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stocks jumping in asia and europe overnight and now u.s. futures are pointing to a strong start here at home. >> starbucks shares getting a jolt this morning. disappointing investors. >> and your money, your vote. why the influential national review is calling on conservatives to take a stand against donald trump. it's friday, january 22nd, 2016 and you're watching worldwide exchange on cnbc. >> a very good morning to you. welcome to worldwide exchange on cnbc on this friday morning. >> a lot to talk about on the markets and this rally off crude in just a minute but first, millions of residents along the east coast are bracing for a powerful winter storm that could dump more than 2 feet of snow on

the region. hampton pearson is at reagan international airport in washington and probably desserted and not just because of the early hour hampton. >> yeah, you've got that right. normally 5:30 in the morning here as far as the launch can be very much like 5:30 in the afternoon as far as activity but perhaps as you can see off in the distance the baggage drop behind me traffic right now is about a third of what it would normally be this time of the morning and there's a reason for that. nationwide we're told the airlines ahead of the storm have already cancelled something like 2200 flights. and an additional 1400 plus for tomorrow. primarily in the mid-atlantic region, charlotte, vwi and all be impacted by all of that. american airlines in particular getting hard hit because they're a major character in all the airports that we mentioned. also as we said, normally activity here would be a lot more lively. frankly, the folks we have

talked to who are here and are awake are just happy to be getting out ahead of this storm to their destinations north or in the midwest or all the way to the west coast. now the major airlines too also ahead of the storm have been issuing a travel alert offering travellers a combination of no charge or wavers of fees to change lights impacted by the snowstorm. some are even offering refunds or cancellations. check the individual airline website or social media for the exact policies there. the other thing that we often do too on days like this is we check in with folks at flight aware.com for the so-called misery map. a look at what's happening with the major hubs around the u.s. when you look at those maps, green means good. red means not so great and since we really don't have most of the flights in the air as yet,

there's more green on the map as we speak. later today we should get more information about what's going to happen for cancellations for new york and boston and other airports further up the coast. so that's a scene for the moment. we'll be here for much of the day. back to you guys. >> hampton pearson thank you for the update. we'll continue to check back in with you. wilfred's first new york blizzard this week. >> i experienced one a couple of years back but so far the weather has been not too bad. >> it's been mild. >> a rude awakening this weekend. >> talk about extremes, let's get back to the markets and show you what's going on. u.s. futures in rally mode off of yesterday's modest rally t. story here is the bounce back in oil. wti back above 30. that helped futures back across the board. pushing toward the high of the session. s&p futures up 25. nasdaq up 64. yesterday's rally interesting lead by consumer discretionary names. some of the economic indicators actually coming back green as

oil comes back. it's kind of counter intuitive but cramer was talking about this on the show yesterday. that's oil was seen as a proxy for the economy. if it goes back up there's fewer fears about recession so the consumer names can rally. also brent crude is seeing a stronger rally today. 30.81. the conviction was been with the sellers for all of 2016. we'll see if this holds today and if buyers can come back in force. >> also central bank speak. the nikkei was strong today partly because of more easing for the boj. also making headlines, ecb president mario draghi speaking to the world economic forum this morning reiterating a lot of what we heard from him yesterday. among the most notable comments draghi says there's plenty of instruments to push inflation higher. the ecb is both determined and willing to act to fulfill it's

mandate. the euro this morning as you can see softening again. it actually fell below 108 yesterday at 10837 today it was almost mario draghi evolved. >> classic draghi. >> but we got the weak euro but we also got the stocks rebound because he wasn't too gloomy. he said china is part of an on going slow down and also i have the tools at my disposal if i need them. so it was pretty well contained. >> whatever it takes kind of thing. he didn't pack the punch that he normally does and the question is is it because he was so disappointing in december off of major rhetoric or because there's just a general sort of -- not distrust but lack of confidence and power that we've seen in the past few years in central banks as a whole. next week's fed meet as good going to be very important. actually it's totally changed the game because this was

supposed to be a nonevent. it's a meeting. there's no press conference or fed forecast. just a regular decision with a statement but that statement takes on a lot more important now because of the market turmoil. will they acknowledge it and still maintain their track and their path committed to the data to raise interest rates? very interesting fed meeting next week. of course we'll be all over that one. we have a number of movers in europe this morning. nancy is joining us from london with the draghi impact and rally off oil. good morning. >> good morning, sarah. for now investors appear to be taking mr. draghi's comments at face value because we're in day two of a strong relief rally shaping up to be a good friday for markets. the stoxx nurp 600 holding at session highs up about 2.7%. you can thank mario draghi but also thank the move in oil prices. let's look at the sectors and you'll find no surprise that oil and gas by far and away up 5%

right now. construction, banks, telecoms and chemicals a lot of sectors drawing markets this week now moving to the upside but we have to keep these gains in perspective because despite now moving positive for the week we're looking at devastating losses for the year still. the market off 7% and the german dax off 9%. so investors are happy going into the weekend but they want to see when wall street opens whether this relief rally holds. guys, back to you. >> nancy, thank you for that and have a lovely weekend. right stocks to watch state side today. starbucks latest earnings beating analyst estimates but investors are worried that growth overseas isn't percolating. landon joins us with more on that story. >> starbucks first physical quarter results topping expectations but slower growth in china and asia pacific region and soft q-2 outlook

disappointing wall street. 46 cent ace share. a penny above estimates. starbucks same store sales rising 8% globally and 9% in the u.s. thanks to strong holiday gift card sales and mobile payments and addition of more food and items and alcohol to the menu but growth in china falling short. the street was looking for 6.1%. several retailers and restaurant chain versus been struggling in china amid the slow down in the economy but some analysts believe starbucks could buck that trend. take a listen. >> if you think about the fact that they're adding stores at north of 30% even with all the cannibalization that's taking place if they were to cut that unit growth -- >> fair enough. >> so to me, these guys are, the momentum is still there and posting these type of comps in this environment globally. >> shares falling 4% in after

hours and including that move the stock is down 4% this year but that's still outpacing the s&p 500 which is down 8%. back to you. >> thank you very much. analyst coming out this morning reiterating their buys on starbucks. we just got btig. i cover a lot of restaurant and beverage companies you do not see 9% comps in the u.s. right now. starbucks clearly out performing. in this country the weakness overseas is temporary, we'll see if that's true. >> just relative to expectations. >> he's going to be on squawk on the street by the way. exclusive interview in the 9:00 hour with our friends jim, david and carl. can't miss that. must watch interview. 9:40 eastern. >> weren't you going to bring me in a starbucks this morning? >> it's not open when we come in at 4:00. >> still you can buy it the day before and heat it up for me in the morning. >> i'll buy it after the show for you. >> thank you. >> now to today's top trending stories. the national review publishing a

special issue today headlines against trump. inside is a blistering editorial questioning trump's commitment to the party and warning voters just weeks before the iowa caucuses. of course trump came out on twitter to respond calling the magazine a quote failing publication and actually the national review lost it's rnc debate because of it. the republican national committee came out and said it was inappropriate to do this. they tore apart trump on his conservative values or lack there of. >> it's such an interesting debate. within the party he's standing for the divide and if he does lose does he still continue his candidacy and divide the vote. >> because he wouldn't commit to not running. >> he did that pledge didn't he? >> but he's ahead in all the polls. >> we're going to see. >> iowa. >> very exciting. apple ceo tim cook made a surprise visit to lobby the eu's antitrust thief. could force apple to pay billions in underpaid taxes to

ireland. the eu has taken on microsoft and google. i would say good luck. >> he is very strict. and going after a lot of tech companies. speaking of am, the apple watch models are now available for purchase. they're only sold in a hand full of stores. prices start at $1,100 for a single strap. is it worth it? i don't know. >> this could be -- >> that seems crazy. >> this could be a great thing for apple. it seems terrible. it dmesses with their brand. i don't see if it works that well for hermes. this coming from the least fashionable person in the world. >> i don't agree with that. >> oh, stop it sarah. jp morgan is mandating investment bankers relax. better work life balance. the bank joins a numberov of fis

by pulling back on hours. it will never last. >> you worked at big banks. >> the culture is just different. you can make a headline hr release like i'm sure they have. but everyone will still be told to work super hard. that's what the vibe is in these places. >> adele's hello broke the youtube record reaching 1 billion views in only 87 days beating out gangnam style which was the previous record. >> which was amazing when it came out. he tried two or three songs since. he's still a huge star in asia and korea. when it first came out i was in china. but his other songs haven't taken off. >> i didn't know he had any other songs. when we come back we have today's must reads for your including wall street journal article on sell off including cloud computing upstarts in play for m&a and they named names. we'll have that for you on the other side of the break with

futures rallying up a 5% higher move in oil this morning. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson. [dog bark] trust me, we're dealing with a higher intelligence here. ♪ the all-new audi q7 is here. ♪

>> in the financial times this one is --

>> a man of many talents including accents. >> the author writing this week's agenda gives an indication of the new hierarchy in washington. australia's prime minister was barrack obama's guest at the white house. meanwhile ash carter was in paris for meetings and to give a talk there as well. it's interesting to note how the changing nature of foreign policy under obama and the current environment saying that israel and the u.k. falling down the pecking order and i don't think it's ground breaking that he's having meetings with australia and france this week but it's an interesting changing of the guard and the only other reason i pick up on this one which is an interesting read all be it not hugely consequential but hearing jack lew talk about his views, everyone wants britain to stay in the european union and i wonder how much that special relationship would be tested if we left the eu.

interesting thought. >> special relationship is also how they describe that with israel. it will be interesting to watch. my morning must read of the day is actually an article in the wall street journal where they point out there's chief names in the sell off. it puts cloud computing upstarts in play. the author writing the business technology industry biggest players have been struggling to adjust to broader changes like the shift to cloud computing delivered to the internet and when they talk about the big players they're talking about imb, cisco, and have seen their own market value shrink in the sell off and have huge cash piles to put to work and they name names like work day, horton works which have all been hammered even harder than the big guys as the money comes off -- the less cash heavy companies and saying it might be a good opportunity to buy as the smarter upstarts do some of the

technology that the big guys need. >> structurally a growing area but a lot of competition and players trying to get in there as well. still to come here on worldwide exchange oil is bouncing back. domestic crude rising above $30 barrel. has it bottomed? head of global commodity research at city weighs in on what's weighing on oil. stay tuned you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. eric's gotten used to the lingering odors in his bathroom yep, he's gone noseblind

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>> big move in oil prices today moving above the $30 barrel mark reached last week. the dreaded question but after two days here in 5% moves up for oil have we seen the bottom? >> i don't know. there's good reasons why oil could still go down into the $20 range. iran is starting to come back into the market. good news and bad news data

follow one another. the amazing thing about the up move yesterday in oil was this is in the face of the most bearish data in the u.s. in a very long time. >> you're talking about the supply data. >> yeah. >> let's touch on iran. last weekend big news that the sanctions are coming off. has that been a major factor or is it hidden in the general financial market moves. >> i think it's hidden. when you have a market with railroad shorts in it that's a reflection of a view of what's going to happen with iran coming back on the market. it hasn't come back on the market yet. we don't know if this is a 100, 200, 500,000 a day. >> the stock market is treating it as if it were the main indicator in this country or globally. is that right? >> it's descent indicator because commodities are a here and now indicator of the world

economy. >> you're saying this is a demand move? it's not just the supply shock? >> well, the supply shock was what happened last year. this year with news from china it's a demand side question and added to all the concerns on the supply side. >> when we look at countries like brazil and russia clearly suffering very, very heavily, are there any commodities from you think in terms of the industrial commodities whether we'll get a bounce sometime soon where this fundamental sell off that's been broad based is slightly overdone? >> well, i think it's actually broadly overdone. there's some commodity where is the supply is so overwhelming because of cheap material being found in the surge of capex in the last decade. we don't think it will go up any time soon and i mean not in the rest of the decade but for the other industrial metals the

supply demand balances are fragile. they have not seen the overwhelming supply response. >> there is a prevailing view that at some point during the middle of the year and the end of the year people are going to wake up and realize the supply and demand economics don't workout and oil prices will rise again. what's going to cause that. >> usually m&a activity is the best indicator that the market has bottomed. we actually expect there is a big surge in m&a activity on the oil side of the business. we have high yield companies coming off their hedges in the u.s. we have another government look at predetermining the basis of reserve base lending and we have companies with a lot of cash ready to poise and buy. >> do you have names of good targets. >> i'm not allowed to do that. >> thank you for joining us this morning on a friday. we'll hear more of your oil views moving forward.

no doubt. >> here's our chart of the week. i have chosen a 10 year treasury note because it's a great gauge of general risk sentiment in the u.s. and we've seen it back above 2% today. it's quite a good indicator. >> a lot of people also say a lot of resilience given the market sell off in stocks. my chart of the week goes to what we were just talking about. it's the oil price and the s&p 500. this idea that where ever oil goes the stock market goes right there along with it. and not even the power of mario draghi could lift stocks when oil was down yesterday. it has to be oil. >> it lifted stocks larger in europe. >> it did but the u.s. held back when oil went negative and went back positive when oil went back positive. that is the recession indicator. that is the mentality of this market like it or not. >> absolutely right.

that does it for us today and this week. squawk box is coming up next. from all of us at worldwide exchange a very good morning to you. ♪ across town in minutes or across the globe in under an hour. whole communities are living on mars and solar satellites provide earth with unlimited clean power. in less than a century, boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes, across the universe and beyond. and if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. ♪ announcer: ifis the staying awake part...y [train horn blares] sleep train has your ticket to a better night's sleep. with a 100 night low price guarantee, sleep train's love your mattress money back guarantee, same day delivery, plus helpful advice from the sleep experts, it's no wonder more than a million people fall asleep each night on a sleep train mattress! ♪ sleep train [train horn]

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good morning, rally mode. a snap back for the global markets. futures pointing to a higher open on wall street. all of this as oil prices jump back. we came here to solve problems. market was in turmoil and we did. it's friday, things look a lot better. >> did you just say mission accomplished. >> yeah. and billions of residents for the big snowstorm. the biggest of the year so far on the east coast. bracing for snow as well as high winds. hundreds of flights already being cancelled and some major corporate headlines from starbucks and boeing and we're

waiting on results from ge. it's friday, january 22nd, 2016 and squawk box begins right now. >> live from davos switzerland and the world economic forum, this is squawk box. >> good morning, everyone. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin and it's our final day of coverage. we will be returning to a weather event taking place on the east coast. millions of residents were bracing for a powerful winter storm that could dump more than 2 feet of snow on the region. american airlines is cancelling the bulk of its flights. over 90 flight cancellations along the