with that setup, dow up 158. we'll send it to you for squawk alley. >> sounds good. good morning. 8:00 a.m. at box headquarters in los at yoes. squawk alley is live. ♪ >> markets off of the highs and getting some -- a head of steam as central bankers hint at policy alall wered world. tech stocks moving higher. nasdaq still hurting, though,

and several tech stocks still trading below their ipo prices. according to briar capital ceo, there could be more pain to come. take a listen. >> there will be, unfortunately, a great deal of blood on the streets. the risk-rewards that developed over the unicorns simply have become and have been for about a year completely out of control. >> what do you do ahead of the tech earnings coming next week. channing smith is a tech portfolio manager, managing director which owns shares of apple, amazon, and google. at least one firm, piper, saying buy apple into the print. is that a strategy you would apply to a bunch of tech names? >> we like the setup for tech.

there's probably a lot of truth for that. if you can pick up apple under ten times, we would say -- we would do that. i think the setup for google is best. we like amazon as well wrfsh tech is a safe place to hide at this point. >> how strong do the results from the likes of amazon and apple have to be in order to sort of drown out the oil concerns? on amazon do we have to see cloud outperformance along with the strong retail numbers from apple? do we have to hear about china continuing to perform for them despite the worries in slowdown in the economy over there? i think a lot of the news is priced in at this point. what investors will start doing with apple is thael start looking ahead to the developers conference and then to, you know, the next apple version of

the iphone that's coming out in september. these months are tough for apple. especially when you don't have a great up take in the phone. it could be kind of a choppy trade here for the next couple of months. we expect investors will start looking to the developers conference and then to the iphone -- the new iphone coming out in september. >> channing, there's a sense in the market that tech was too expensive overall and that we needed the correction to get them back down to earth, and i'm wondering at what -- at what multiple you think the industry overall becomes cheap? not only just cheap enough to stay there, but cheap enough to buy. >> i think you have to look on a stock by stock basis. facebook, obviously, when you have a downturn, high multiple stocks are the ones that will be punished. same with netflix. we think they're well positioned with mobile search and advertising. we throw in youtube. we think they're well positioned in a secular trend. probably the best out of the whole group. you look at apple trading under ten times. that's a deal to us.

>> doesn't that fly in the face of what you just said? >> you have to think about what is the growth rate. i think what a lot of investors are doing is looking at the chinese stock market and then saying because of all the volatility there, we're going to see this enormous drop in chinese gdp. we don't think the drop in chinese gdp will be as considerable as what we see in the market. we think growth is slowing in

china. if you look at qualcomm, a lot of investors have punished this stock for the exposure to china. >> stay with us through the roller coaster of the markets the past few weeks. there is one sector that's performing better than the broader market, and that's media. julia borestein has a look at why. hey, julia. >> hey, carl. that's right. disney shares have had a rough start to the year. they're off about 8% on questions about espn and the cable bundle. the other biggest media giants have held up better than the rest of the market. time warner shares are up 10% this year on rumors about investments and potential spinoffs while viacom shares are up about 5% with new activist pressure on management and an upgrade to buy today.

cable subscriber trends and multi-year low valuations relative to the rest of the market. crude points to cvs is his top idea in big media. mkm analyst says video games and movie companies should prove good defensive spaces. he is bullish on the strengthening ad market bolstering traditional media stocks. morgan stanley ben swinburn, his top pick of the sector is nbc parent comcast. analysts are more cautious in the second half of the year, as there's still so many questions on how these media companies will handle the cord cutting trend. john, back to you. >> thanks, julia. i want to bring channing back

in. how much has to do with the over the top phenomenon. we're getting maturity in the smartphone market, and a lot of what people are doing with these has to do with media. is it going beyond the device, beyond the hardware looking for opportunity there? is that why media is surging as well. >> if you look at google, mobile search is exploding. for the first time last year eclipsed how many searches we have on desk top. with those sempz you're getting more intelligent searches. that's what google is focused on, but that's where the growth is. everything mobile. video content. video. absorption on mobile phones is where all of the growth is.

google is at the heart of that friends. >> when you look at viacom, like time warner, julia was just describing what's behind those moves this year. it's activists. it's the promise of potentially an event dwoun the road. do you buy a stock on that promise? >> we really don't. i think what's happening in the media industry is there's a shake-out that's happening. if you look at discovery, that's a stock that we own. we couldn't get comfortable with, you know -- they have content, but how are they going to distribute that content? you see a breakdown in cable companies and how they're delivering that to consumers. how consumers are starting to absorb content is changing, and so we would avoid the media sector in general until we get more clarity at how that content is going to be delivered. think about google youtube. we're seeing explosive growth in youtube, and that is on demand video. we're going to see more of that. we don't know how this affects the media companies. we don't know how this affects the cable companies. therefore, we would stay away until you get more clarity.

interesting. discovery and viacom, the two few remaining names of the nasdaq 100 up for the year. channel, good to see you again. thanks. >> thank you, carl. you have a good weekend. >> an interesting tidbit to be the default search engine on ios devices. a billion dollars a year. this came the lawsuit between oracle and dwoogle or oracle suing over the intellectual property. it's interesting because it's exactly the amount analysts at mccart estimate in 2012 that payment was. what's more, they estimated that apple gets two-thirds of that search revenue so google was taking in 1.3 billion total off of search and giving apple a billion was their estimate. a number of reports might be missing that there are a lot more iphone on the market than there were three years ago. depending on the terms of the deal, google could be paying apple more than a billion today. we're not likely to get any more clarity on this though because apple and google both pushed a judge to have that billion

dollar number pulled from the public record. neither company is going to comment on it, guys. >> a lot more on the markets. plus, winter storm jonas already cancelling thousands of flights. how your weekend is going to be affected. the ceo of box, aaron levy will join us later this hour. one year since the ipo stock price well below where it was last january. s&p hasn't had an up friday since december 4th, and we are off the highs, and we're squawk alley in a pinpoint. at every turn...

when you're engineered to literally to drive circles around the competition.

hi, good morning to you. that's right. we are building on yesterday's gains here. crude oil seems to be stablingizing over $31 a barrel, but some traders saying not so fast. this volatility is expected to continue, but it's not unexpected to see a little bit of a pop with equities moving higher today. as we go into the weekend. definitely short covering here. buy the dip mentality. it makes sense that oil would be

higher. there's also a piece, though it's smaller, the winter storm as well, boosting the rest of the energy complex up. some people are saying they believe we have washed out here, that the worst is over. others are less convinced. remember that data that we got yesterday? still pretty bearish. also look at commodities across board today. we're seeing a lot of green. this is a space that's been badly beat up. it's not surprising that people are getting back into it at this point. even with the dollar index rising today over 99. weekly figures on crude just to see what we're doing here. we're going to finish the week up as we continue these gains. probably a little bit more than 5%. we're cutting our losses on the month to just about 13%. guys, back to you. >> once you get past this initial wave of supply from iran, we're going to see all of the asset classes carried higher. is this the beginning of that? >> i think so. you know, when you look at what

happened on wednesday, it seemed like it was capitulation in the oil market and energy stocks. whenever you see a group go down 7% to 10%. i thought that wednesday -- tuesday and wednesday we were seeing it, and now the market -- you know, the oil is rallying. the market is obviously following. >> it's interesting you talk about wednesday because this morning on ""squawk box"" larry fink said, yes, there had been a lot of institutional selling, but the tide seemed to change on wednesday. there was a bit of a sentiment shift. do you feel that overall in the market? >> we did. i mean, one of the reasons i went on in the afternoon and said what i said is that i felt the sentiment change. i thought that, you know, i had spoke tony a couple of oil traders. they all said the same thing. they felt it was really the end. right now short-term, i do think that we did definitely reached the short tv term bottom.

>> given that so many eyes are on oil, how much do earnings next week matter? i mean, we've got apple, qualcomm, facebook, amazon. if they have good stories in q1, how much can it matter? >> probably the point that's been missed on tv for the last week and a half -- it's definitely important. if you look at it like next week, there's a lot of big names coming out, and this is -- these are tech names. these are names that, you know, this is -- these are the forward-thinking companies, the ones that you want to invest in for the future. . feshgd focus more on the earnings level and get back to what with dough best, and that's

at least looking at growth, you know, three months, six months, nine months down the road. it's been such a dramatic few weeks for equity flows. you know how much cash mutual funds have. they can sit on that for a while. would you expect that to reverse necessarily? >> well, they're not stupid. i mean, there are going to be opportunities where they're going to want to get -- they're going to jump back in. i think they'll probably start jumping back into some of the tech names again. my equity -- my viewpoint is strictly on what we do on a day to day bays down here. if i was an investor, i would start looking at those names. >> people are going to be watch and waiting for buybacks to resume. that's the thing about getting through earnings. >> you are bringing up a very sore point because i think that, you know, buy backs while they're good for equities, i don't think it's great for a company. if you are going to spend $2 billion buying back your own stock, you're not doing anything to advance your company. you're not doing anything to advance, you know, build your business. you are just making your -- the

price of your stock higher. >> it's been that way for a long time. >> yeah. >> the companies have earmarked these allocations for buybacks. they still have a lot to go. it's not like there are all these new announcements for new buybacks necessarily. sflool there are other things we can do with that money. there are a lot of smaller companies that probably would fit in your product mix better than buying back shares. >> finally, we saw draghi put a floor under europe. japan was up so big because there's a hope for more stimulus there. are we back on the central bank juice, and are we hanging on the fed next week? >> i thu you are going to start seeing more of that. unfortunately, i don't -- you know, i like the story to be about equities because that's what we do, but in the bigger picture, it's very important. i do think that that's going to be a story probably for the next couple of months. and what the fed decides to do again. to me i don't think they're going to do anything for months and months and months. i don't think there's any data

that says we need to do something. if we slip back into a slow growth phase, it's going to take two quarters before they can say we're looking to go back into a recessionary situation. it's going take time. >> 30 inches of snow expected in washington d.c. a warnt storm update from reagan national airport coming up. thousands of flights already canceled. and green on the screen in europe. the second consecutive day of gains. markets closing for the week there in ten minutes. that and more ahead on "squawk alley." there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade.

fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.

a tumultuous start to 2016 for the markets. dominik chu has more at headquarters. >> let's reset the markets so far year-to-date. as we take a look at today's relatively bullish price action we'll call it, the s&p 500 we're

still down about 7% year-to-date, but if i were to tell you that those 14 days of trading that we've had so far including today have been seven up and seven down. it shows you how much more pronounced the down side days have been so far this year. some say that perhaps the path of least resistance for the time being may be the down side. on a sector basis, it stelz you that story. telecommunications, utilities, and consumer staple stocks are the outperformers, the less economically sensitive. the ones that pay the higher dividends, the wi ones that pay you to wait. you have materials, financials, industrials, energy, technology really dragging things down. the best performing stocks in the your s&p year-to-date. this is the only one that's actually still up for the past 12 months as well. all the other ones have been bounces off recent lows. also, want to point out freeport mcmoran, we've been saying it

today, hitting another low again today. so far down about 41% just year-to-date. down huge over the course of the past 12 months. metal and mining has been hit pretty badly. john fort, this idea of small cap stocks and large cap stocks. we're looking at it through the lens of etf's. the spider, the s&p 500, etf versus the iwm, which is the i shares russell 2000 etf. the under performance of small caps continues. it's going to be another place to watch for trends developing or reversing, john. back to you. >> we'll definitely be watching for that. thanks. winter storm jonas hitting the east coast today. washington is right in the eye of what's expected to be a record breaking blizzard. our hampton pearson is at reagan national airport where the cancellations have already started. hey, hampton. another nearly 2700 flights

already announced as canceled for tomorrow. that in flight aware.com, which also is famous for what it calls misery map, which keeps tabs on activities at the major hubs all across the country. again, not much activity going on at all. at the charlotte hub coming north, of course, along the atlantic seaboard, we are here at reagan national airport where overall the activity is much less than a normal day. it feels more like a saturday. most of the people here are getting on planes and expect to get out of here ahead of the storm. everybody has a story to tell.

>> supposed to fly out saturday, but dulles has come to a halt. second chance was to fly into charlotte. charlotte got canceled, so now flying out of st. louis from dulles. now they moved us up here to reagan. >> i got here extra early today. i really thought it would be a lot busier with everyone trying to get out. mine, fortunately, is going. i'll be getting out. hopefully. >> and you never know who you are going to meet at an airport. by the way, most of the airlines are wavine waiving their fees o changing flights and cancellations. some even offering refunds. check, of course, the individual airline to see the specifics of the policy, but, again, we know the storm is on the way. as a matter of fact, you may be getting here to the d.c. area a little sooner than we thought, but right now people are just trying to get out of here. back to you, guys. thanks. >> coming up next, fox set its ipo at $14 a share. exactly one year ago. closed the day above $22. it's now trading at half that.

the ceo and founder on tech valuations, including his own up next. we're counting down to the close of trading in europe. strong rally in today's session. more ahead on "squawk alley." ♪ it was always just a hobby. something you did for fun. until the day it became something much more. and that is why you invest. the best returns aren't just measured in dollars. ♪

markets about to close in the u.k. and across continental europe. stocks did rally for a second straight day on hopes the ecb will launch some stresh stimulus measures. those gains coming despite some pmi numbers that indicate a

slowdown in economic activity this month. that snurj brent giving a lift to the big oil companies led by staten oil and rule dutch shell. they're hoping the 600 posts a weekly gain for the first time in a month. year-to-date indexes down more than 7%. by the way, we were up 254 at session highs. we've lost about 100 points of that. let's get to sue herrera for a news update. sue. >> hi, carl. good morning. here's your cnbc news update at this hour. in an interview from davos, switzerland, defense secretary ashton carter says the u.s.-led coalition fighting isis needs to take back iraqi cities mosul and raaka and needs to use boots on the ground as part of that strategy. >> we're looking for opportunities to do more, and there will be boots on the ground. i want to be -- i want to be clear about that. it's a strategic question whether you are enabling local forces to take and hold rather than trying to subtut for them.

>> the cdc adding the following destinations to the zika travel alerts. barbados, ebbing kwa door, st. martin, gayana and samoa. it says anyone who visits those regions and experiences symptoms such as fever, rash, or conjunctivitis should be tested for the virus. residents were evacuate from their homes just moments before the top three floors of their building collapsed in central rome this morning. amazon offerings a full refund for those that bought lover boards on its website. dozens of lithium ion batteries used to power the scooters caught fire and exploded. you're township date. let's get back to squawk alley.

josh lipton joins us now from san francisco. >> hey, john. thank you, aaron, for taking the time to chat to us today. let's talk about box one year in. you know, analysts very bullish, right? more than 70% say box is a buy, but still some skepticism from investors. talk about from here how you see box's strategy, how you see its game plan. >> we're in a fairly new market where enterprises all around the world are moving their on prem significance data storage and collaboration technology to the cloud. to build up the company, we have aggressively built rnd and marketing. that has been some of the skepticism and noise on the stock. we're very, very happy about the growth of the business. we'll grow nearly 40% this year doing about 300 million in

revenue. 95% of that revenue is recurring revenue. it will show up again next year. we work with 54,000 companies and 55% of the fortune 500. businesses everywhere are adopting the technology. is there concern with employee morale? the game plan you lay out like that, a strategy you lay out. it only works if you retain that kind of top talent, right? talk about that. >> i think actually we tend to have a very committed employee base that is very focused on the long-term. again, we've been building this company. we still have all of our founders in the business. we've been here for 11 years, and we're excited that we have an employee base that is excited about transforming the way that the world works. we've had employees excited about this process as we've been building the business. especially compared to being a private company. right now it's actually beer

to be public at the moment. >> talk about this broader market, the kind of economy we find ours in had. companies are interested in cutting costs. what's it like for a company like box? you are building out this platform. you have, you know, solutions and products to sell. >> that hes a great environment for cloud companies. when you think about sales force.com or work day or box or other companies, this is an environment where companies want to really be able to spend and transform their business at the same time, and that means they're not going to be investing in on premises storage infrastructure and servers and all of this sort of legacy i.t. that costs them way too much money and was way too complex. >> got it. john, a question for aaron. >> hey, aaron, good to see you.

>> when you guys first got out there, fremium -- people start to try the software, and then they get it into the enterprise. kind of a trojan horse strategy. a lot of your fremim peers, their story has fallen apart. evernote being one of them. now have you this partnership with ibm. you've got more of a document management story. are you further into the enterprise. how do you change the narrative so it's less the consumery fremium side and more the enterprise chops that you have been trying to develop over this past year? >> it's a great question. >> our strategy is really to enable employees in organizations to be able to adopt our technology to solve any of their pain points around sharing or collaborating around data. that said, our business model is exclusively around selling to the enterprise. what will happen is we'll have a pocket of maybe 500 or 1,000 employees in an organization already using our products, and that makes it easier to go sell our software to the entire

business. our overall strategy is to be a platform for managing all of the business's content and critical data. partnerships like ibm or what we have announced with microsoft and apple and sales force and others really help us continue to develop out and accelerate that enterprise business model. again, 95% of our revenue is recurring revenue. it's a $300 million business. we have many, many customers that are paying us hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars individually to be able to use our technology to power how they work. >> you have said a few different times that your company is misunderstood by wall street, and i'm wondering if you think that's improved over the course of the year and if there's a chance if the market stabilizes in drop box is able to go public that you'll be able to keep a

lot of your investors from investing in drop box instead of box if they feel they can only have one in their portfolio? i would say we're very different companies. we, again, are exclusively focused on the enterprise market. that's where the vast majority of our revenue comes from. a very different kind of organization, a different kind of business model. very different kind of gross margin structure. we have 70% gross margins. pretty different business. in terms of the wall street nabbeding, i think it's mixed overall as any kind of high growth company that is investing in its growth that you'll see that level of mixed reaction. we have some investors that take a conservative approach. one thing we have talked about is we will hit cash flow break even in four quarters from now. that will be the end of this

fiscal year. january of 2017 we'll be -- that's something we have communicated. there's no more sort of fundraising needed in the business. we are just going out ask scaling and getting more customers. >> let me ask you one point. drop box closed two consumer products, right? we're hearing there's a lot of drop box resumes. are you seeing them come to box? >> i don't personally review the resumes coming in, but it's something i could ask my recruiting team and get back to you on? >> what about the funding environment here? i want to get your take. it is cooling that ipo window frozen shut for now, but all the stat-ups looking for an exit. is box more interested in being inquisitive in 2016? >> i think that we are -- we're certainly thoughtful about, you know, how can we continue to advance our technology and how can we go into markets that accelerate our advantages? m&a is one way to do that where

we can acquire many new start-ups that have built amazing technology, but right now we are primarily focused on organic growth and organic development at the moment. to your point, the silicon valley environment has a lot of high valuations that won't necessarily be able to translate into the public market, and that's going to clearly create some curious outcomes in this space. >> you want to make sure the fundamentals of your business are healthy. in our case we always focused on the health of the customers we were acquiring. what were the unit economics of the customers we were bringing in? we were thoughtful and able to invest in the growth rate because the customers we were acquiring stayed with us for a very long time. we have 120% net retention rate. even if it maybe cost us $2 to

acquire $1 up front for revenue, that customer will stay with us for three, five, ten years. we felt comfortable about making those kinds of customer acquisition costs work. that said, you have to make sure that works for your business model. i think a lot of start-ups out there have to be very, very focused on cash flow. they have to be very focused on making sure they have a healthy -- they have healthy unit economics. at the same time we deeply believe that there's a lot of disruptive technologies out there, and so this is going to be a great time to start companies and to be building out technology platforms. i just think the valuations are probably going to come down. zoog aaron levie, thank you for your time. >> john fort, back to you, guys. >> thank you, josh. talk about a guy who went public at the rate time, i suppose. coming up, more on the rally we are seeing to close out the week. first, rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> you know, it's been a wild 2016, and much of the wildness could be supported and understood in one phrase. margin call. but bilateral agreements and

derivatives, they don't have really margin calls, but maybe bilateral agreements, the s.e.c. may say good-bye to them. really. after the break we're going to talk about it.

she famously called the top and the bottom in housing. ivy zellman joins us exclusively on what the state of the industry is today and her best stock picks. oil and energy stocks in rally mode.

piper's gene munster says apple's stock could go 50% higher. we'll see what the desk thinks about that call, and we will see you in about 15 minutes. >> sounds good, scott. thanks. david faber is back at post nine with news this time on american express. >> we're watching that stock, of course, this morning as you well know. carl, down over 12% after earnings last night were not what people were looking for. particularly the guidance for 2017. now, some at least holding out hope that perhaps the presence of value active -- an investor, of course, that can get active at times which took about a billion dollar position last summer might start to agitate. i think you can forget about that because sources familiar with the situation tell me valueact no longer owns a stake in american express, having disposed of that late last year. let's call it the november time frame or so. the expectation that is amex, which is face aing lot of

different pressures on its business. others secular and some cyclical, perhaps. you would have agitation on the part of a significant investor in change of management does not at least appear and certainly will not appear in the form of valueact of being there. thought it was worth sharing again. valueact no longer a shareholder in american express, having sold out late last year when the stock was significantly higher. thank you very much, david faber. let's get to the cme group and go to rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. i can't tell you how many white papers and various essays i get like the one i'm holding in my happened today. s.e.c. proposed new derifftive rules for registered funds. if you really start reading all this, a couple of things jump out at you that you need to understand. a lot of the rules that govern some of the sbc registered

investment companies go way back. you have securities acts of 33 and 34. more importantly, as this one references, the 1940 investment company act, investment advisors act. all of these things are obviously pretty -- oh, and times are changing. fast forward. over the last two or three weeks, how many times have you heard the reasons behind some of the crazy market moves that have been margin calls. okay. now, let's put all that together. the s.e.c. and the fed, of course, after the crisis have a very complicated world of derivatives to answer to. one of the very foundations of certain types of derivatives, especially many of those that aren't traded on exchanges per se, so they're not homogenous are bilateral agreements. you know, you and i will make an agreement about some type of derivative structure. there's no margin call there. it's what we agree to. those days of a bilateral agreement like that, what we may be saying bye to them.

>> there are a whole lot more rules attached to them, and most likely what it's going to do is it's going to also redefine the very blurred lines between activity even on futures contracts that are derivatives as to what's a hedge, for example, and what isn't. >> this might cause negativity in regard to electric weedty. in the long run this is going to give a whole lot more transparency. just think of the special purpose vehicles behind e.t.f.'s and how they trade those inventories. when these rule changes come,

those special purpose vehicles are going to disappear. this looks to be a good thing, but maybe not in the beginning. carl, back to you. >> thank you very much. rick santelli in chicago. when we return with the market recovery today, have we seen the bottom and what will it take for any bounce to hold? this one is not. we're up about 107 points. back in a moment. was engineered...

...to help sense danger before you do. because when you live to innovate, you innovate to live. the all-new audi q7. a higher form of intelligence has arrived.

all the major indexes bouncing back after a rough start to 2016, but fading

throughout the morning, so what's it going to take for a bounce to hold? charlie, director of research with pension partners joins us now post nine. good morning. thanks for being with us. >> good morning, guys. >> what are the signs that the worst might be behind us and next week what's going to matter more, oil or earnings? >> that's the question on everyone's mind. i think, first, let's just take a step back and say, you know, the famous quote from wall street, you know, greed for lack of a better word is good. it doesn't apply in markets. it doesn't apply in investing. the opposite is true. it's fear that is good. it's fear that creates opportunity, and that's what we're seeing today. we saw the same thing last august and september, and we got the large bounce off of that. we're seeing the same thing today. we're seeing signs of capitulation, and signs of investor panic and signs of really oversold conditions that you typically see bounces off of. that brings you to the question, right? will the bounce, if it comes -- will it be sustainable. last october it was not.

why wasn't it sustainable? we didn't see an improvement in credit. you didn't see credit spreads improve. you need to see that this time around. you didn't see an improvement in the behavior of the yield curve and the treasury pashgt. you need to see a steepening yield kufsh. an increase in growth expectations. lastly, you need to see a stabilization in the commodities market. it doesn't have to go up. we could talk about that more. the stock market, the u.s. supreme court, really isn't tied to the commodities market over the long-term. a stabilization here would be good fundamentally, and you just want to see that growth cyclical sector take leadership this time around. >> the vix never got to where it did in august, right? >> that's true. >> we didn't see that same level of panic, but we saw, you know, if you look at the number of new 52-week lows, the new york stock exchange, i think the highest level since november 2008. that's pretty much a panic, and you typically see it bounce off of that. >> so the breadth and the

percentage of bulls. those are the two things that people hoped were done for now are pointing to. >> right. you are seeing more fear today, actually, if you look at some of these sentiment indicators than you saw in march of 2009, which is remarkable. we were down 57% in the s&p at that point, and now we're only down around 12% offer the highs. you are seeing a similar level of fear. >> usually you think about the indicators as contrarian when individual investors get too bullish perhaps. we're due for a correction. if they get too bearish, we're due for a boubs. >> 2100 in the s&p. you saw a high level of bulls. you are seeing the opposite today. now, that's not to say you can't get bearish in a bear market and not continue, but typically have bounces along the way before that point.

new it would be at 19 cents by the end of the year. it's not going to go down 2% a day from here. i think you're much likely -- more likely to see $40 oil before $20 oil, and i think that would be enough to stabilize markets. in the long-term if you look at the relationship between the equity market and crude, there's roughly a zero correlation between the s&p 500 and crude, and more often than not it spikes in the level of crude that actually causes or is coincidence with recessions. we saw this in 1991. we saw this also in 7dz, 2009, and we saw this in 2001. it was spikes in the level of crude that really caused problems for the economy. the u.s. economy is not the russian economy. it is not -- depending on crude, it has many different sector that is benefit, actually, from lower price of crude. >> where is true real resistance on equities at this point?

>> support and resistance is a major theme. if you look at anything like the crude market, it continued to break. we're supposed to be levels of support. i think more important for investors is think about risk and reward. it's better today than it was a year ago. every market, if we look at commodities, if you look at credit, you look at equities, if you look at energy, the worst sectors than energy, high yield energy we're yielding roughly 20% today. that's pricing in a lot of default. a lot of bad news is out there, and have you to really say at this point we're going to have additional bad news. you have to say that the u.s. is going through a recession to really push us down much further from here. >> i guess a lot of people are, of course, hoping that does not happen. charlie, thanks so much for your insight. >> great to be with you. you too. >> when we come back, a move by apple into virtual reality. we will explain that ahead of their earnings next week. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here.

fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.

>> apple doubling down on virtual and augmented reality. the company just liared had a top specialist in the space. virginia tech professor doug buhlman. he has written extensively on the topic. he is also the recipient of the hollow lens lens research grant from microsoft. apple also reports earnings next

tuesday. that's going to be about iphones, though. not about virtual reality. >> yes. this call by piper to buy it, they see 50% gains by the time the seven rolls around possibly in september. >> to me i'm looking at the commentary around china. if you weren't paying attention to any of the news reports and just looking at stores and i phones sales, he wouldn't know there was an issue with the growth showdown. does his language shift at all around that, or does he continue to be bullish about consumer spend sng. >> we saw star wars language shift dramatically too. >> starbucks began in the red, and then cramer was talking about the way they're getting people through stores faster. comps up. traffic is up. not just in china and arnold the world, but 9% comp growth in the states. netflix is the one that sort of has people skramping their heads today. fang has done pretty well during the session as the market has been up, but netflix down 2% plus having already posted results. >> yeah. it's interesting.

i can't tell what it's trading in line with. you had some under loved stocks doing prettily well accident and netflix not. >> as john said earlier, the list of earnings next week from facebook to at&t to caterpillar, it's going to be something to watch. have a good weekend. stay out of the snow. let's get to whopner and the headquarters and "the half." ♪ >> thanks. welcome to the halftime show. let's meet the starting line-up for today. cnbc senior markets commentator. our game plan looks like this. ivy zellman live. what's really happening in house sng she's the analyst people call. we'll have the exclusive interview on the state of real estate. the apple trade. with that stock moving 3% higher this hour, piper's gene munster with us on his market-moving note today that has the stock on the move. we begin with stocks going for