that does it for us on "closing bell." we just went out with a rally and stocks positive for this session the whole day, the first time this year so with gains of better than 2% for the s&p 500 and nasdaq and the dow having a nice session too. "fast money" begins right now. and "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, i'm scott wapner in tonight for melissa lee. our traders on the desk, tim, steve, brian and guy adami. tonight on "fast," the best week of the year for stocks is in the books and there is something in the charts that could lead to more gains. and we'll tell you what it is. and plus apple is back above $100. if you are worried about earnings next week and a we have a way to protect your shares for free. and later, a blizzard bearing down on the east coast which means you could be stuck inside this weekend. the four stocks you might want to chill with. but first we start with the market. stocks closing higher.

the first positive week of the year. the s&p now back above 1,900 and the dow up 643 points from the lows of just this week. this is crude oil -- as crude oil soared 9%, up 15% from its lows and the best week since august. will the rally last? is it safe, tim seymour, to buy stocks? >> the question is why did we rally, scott. and this is a case where we came from oversold conditions to, i think we introduced the central bank put in a meaningful way. draghi to me on wednesday reminded me of dirty draghi, if he remember his dirty harry speech in the summer of 2012 -- >> whatever it takes. >> followed by the d.o.j. and the fed meeting where i think they have to pullback. so clearly it is not just oversold. but i don't think anything has changed dramatically. this reality has more room to run. >> b.d., do you agree. >> in the short-term. there was enough news flow this

week that you got shorts to cover. look at oil up 9%. that was a mass ive, massive rally. a 9% rally is a huge rally. in that sense, enough information out there to get the short-term traders to cover those things. but i'm still in the mode, i still think we goer and we use any rips to sell them. >> welcome back again, scott. last night we talked about the potential to rally back up to 1920 in the s&p. i think we were in accord. i think we get there. we are basically right there now. i think you do fade it. i think time and brian is saying that as well. maybe it overshooted the upside but the fact that the bond market, the tlt did not sell off in a way it should have that leads me to bring we're long on the tooth in the rally. >> i think maybe it got too negative. >> the banks came out and reaffirmed the one in five call for recession, 20%. market was trading like it was an 80% chance of a recession this week. >> and then we have the sell

side banks coming out lately in the last month or so saying that you had to sell the rips instead of buy the dips. so a consensus feeling about that and there is no growth globally. and when you look at energy, all you have to know is where crude traded on a day when you know where the marks went. that correlation is extreme. it continues. remember this, 110 down to 26.5, 26.55 was the low print in crude. what were you hoping for if you are short the energy space. for another $5. so to d.b.'s point, you had to cover your shorts. but would you be weary -- >> would you throw them back out, though? >> that is the thing -- >> it is a trader's market. >> but scott brought up a good point. it is sentiment. it got horribly negative a couple of days ago. for a while now. and now sentiment is going -- >> how about on this desk. think about where everybody was two or three days ago. the sky was falling. >> i still think it is.

i'm not saying it is not. i want to be clear. >> i think it is important for people to stick to what they were saying a few days ago. >> unless they got ahead of the truck here. >> maybe things rpt as bad as you -- aren't as bad as you think they are and have been articulating on this program and others for week now. maybe they are not just as bad as you think. >> that is a possibility. my mind hasn't changed one bit. a 20% chance of recession, i put it closer to 80%. we still haven't resolved china. this comes down to the debt deleveraging in china and they are in a hard landing and that is feed-backing into europe and the u.s. economy. >> but they were saying the fed would keep raising. that was my point. >> mine has always been china. >> a recession that we've never imported. >> but we're back in a place where really what happened in china this week. we got some average to slightly bad data. more clumsy policy statements. but what you are left with with

china is they have very little control over where this goes in the short run. so if you think anything changed on china this week, i'm not saying you do, brian, but i think china is not the problem. the problem is what i think steve is talking about is maybe you have the case where fed was too aggressive and people are worried about the u.s. economy. that is what you should be worried about. >> the u.s. economy is being impact the by china. that is what i'm saying. this is all a big feedback. >> the economy or the markets? >> both. the markets are six to eight months, 12 months ahead of what is going on. so the markets are and have been pricing in a much dire situation than -- >> the u.s. economy -- >> and i think if the market continues to rally, now to your point, if the market prices in, six to eight-month lead time, did it price in a blip or is this surreal. >> in six to eight months we'll be in recession and the market is going lower. that is my view. that is what i stick with. >> because of china? >> because of china.

>> so again the markets are priced. the commodities are priced in. whatever you are talking about. >> i'm not short oil any more. i think the oil trade is hard down at these levels but you could short u.s. stocks if you are a trader and want to be aggressive. there is nothing wrong with being short aggressive stocks. you buy tlt which is what guy has been saying for a long time. i think you trade it today. >> what would you buy today? you think there is more room to go and get back to the central bank put? >> i would go back to the names working with the high quality companies with the balance sheets and less cyclical. and even starbucks with numbers out that weren't terribly good -- >> i don't think they were as bad as the market reacted to last night. from the reaction last night, you had howard schultz on cnbc with a reality check. but he is the ceo of the company he's trying to defend. >> he is a very bullish guy. i think he's doing a great job. i'm long the stock. i would own more starbucks here.

but the things i want to own are bulletproof balance sheets and maybe have some inflection in their business. i've talked about coca-cola and sim berly clark and pepsi. i think these are names that are insolated and they pay a dividend and you do better than bonds and these stocks in the next two to three months when we are side ways with a lot of volatility. >> the one thing we haven't talked about, being masked by the noise we hear, but news out of china and europe, the fact we're in the middle of earnings season and you have to be honest in saying, haven't been particularly good. there have been some real blow-ups, not the least of which is a name like american express, down 12 percent on a day it should not be down that much given -- >> the am ex thing was the follow through from yesterday and the news that a large investor no longer had a stake. >> 100%. but that quarter -- they've had a series of disastrous quarters in a row over the last year and a half and that comes on the heels of a lot of different companies telling you the same thing.

boeing last night, we talked about it. not the passenger jets but they talked about the slowdown in transports that speaks to -- i think b.k. would agree -- the global slowdown that some feel is happening. others don't. >> and apple was back up 5% today. back over $100. >> it helped with the positive talk. and everybody talking about the consensus love -- from a cult stock to everyone saying it is a utility stock again and now you get more juice and idea that maybe there could be growth. and when somebody talks about 40% upside from here and you are looking at the old highs -- >> it was 50%. it was gene munster. >> he's obviously an uber bull. >> well we've talked about has the growth been sucked out of the stock. and when you look at the stock that has apple watch, the iphone sales, that are only, we've talked about this, you would think that product has been around since the '90s. it is only around since the '07.

they are capable of hitting another ball out of the park. >> how many of you go apple? >> right here. >> i think we're in a case for apple. i think steve is talking about sentiment. talk about the reasons why you would be a long-term holder which include the installed base, only 20% and a stock that had tremendous growth out of china. everything we're hearing out of the chinese consumption story is that hasn't changed. this go news a print next week. up or down, i think the market is sideways. >> i remember a quarter where the expectations were low. and this low going into a print. on iphone sales and people aren't expecting much. you are watching levels. and grasso will make your way over to the smart board. >> love this. >> you need to pay attention to. >> look at the way i could walk and talk. do you see that. so you see how conflicted the desk is currently. so the best thing i could say is you have to use your levels and

stay disciplined with your level leveled. so lets look at where we come from and when it is over and not over. this is the recent low here. 1867. back in october of 2014, we had a low of 1820. let's just put it here for a point of reference and the pen is done. so now this is the recent low and this is the high. this is the real test right here of that 1820 mark. we traded down to 1812. we bounce from there. because marketed, they over-shoot and under-shoot and they over-shot this time. and you look at this low and do your fib retracement levels. what do you get? 1884 is the first retracement. 1880 was the flat-on week. you wanted to close above that. to give the not all okay but okay to be a buyer of this market. 1884. what is the next one, 1928. what is above that? 1964. where do you sell this market?

1964 to 2000. if it holds you continue to buy more aggressively. if we break down, i think it is important to have an exit strategy. 1880 is your exit strategy right there. it is your flatout week. it is the number everyone was keen on to be a buyer f. it trades below that, that is where you bail on the market. but i think we go higher next week. >> b.k., biggest thing next week, fed or earnings? >> probably a little bit of both. >> that is not a good -- >> come on. >> would you rather? all right, fed. i'll take the fed for $200, alex. there is the possibility with the fed that -- >> 200 or 2 trillion. >> that the communication strategy failed next week. but earnings are important. and housing experts are up. and the one stock that they say will continue to surge from

here. the names they are betting the house on. and the east coast bracing for a winter storm but what about the companies that could see a big boost to the business where everyone is stuck indoors. perhaps a little netflix and chill. and later, worried what apple will do next? no fear. we'll tell you how to protect that stock for free. much more "fast money" right after this. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.

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you experience tv. big day today for the major housing stocks. check that out. kicks off the top trades. the entire space catching a bid. kb home and lenar and pulte the big standouts. after existing home sales rebounded in december. the largest monthly sales jump ever. and take a listen to what widely followed housing expert ivy zelman had to say about kb earlier today on the halftime show. >> taking kb age specifically, we have tremendous upside trading right nout at about .7 times book. if you go back to 2011 at the trough, this is raufly where the valuation was and we would believe that the market is pricing in a huge recession the way it is priced today that we don't -- forecast to come to

fruition. there is a huge short interest in the stock and everybody realizes that housing is on solid footing this will have a huge performance on short covering alone. >> you could see, b.k., the stock moved higher as ivy was saying that. it was up at one .7%. she sees a 73% upside for this name. >> these stocks ripped today. and this is the sector, if you disagree with b.k. about the future of the economy, this is the sector you want to be n. as ivy pointed out, there is a shortage of houses. more demand coming in. her concern is my concern. are we going to have a recession. she said if they are pricing too low for that scenario. but if you looking at these names, be careful. watch the one exposed to texas, d.r. horton, those type of names. i would stay away from that and away from the banks in that particular area. but again, if you disagree with d.k., have a ball and buy these stocks. >> who is buying these? >> i think you have to disagree

with yourself based upon your view of the recession and the consumer and ultimately -- because the household formation is why you want to own home depot and lowe's. there is not enough supply. unlike other stores growing too fast, they are not growing floorspace. >> why would you buy the kb -- >> because first of all cred sit not as easy to get. if there is a criticism about the labor market is that people -- wage gains and the wealth effect is not bleeding into the ability to buy a home. houses are priced too expensive. but they could fix up their home. the multiples makes sense. >> part of ivy's point quickly is that banks are lending. if you want to get a loan, you are able to get a loan. in terms of where you are going on the fixer-upper trade, she likes lowe's over home depot in a valuation standpoint. >> if you take out a long-term chart on home depot and look at it against kb homes or pulte, tall brothers recovered, not

from the financial crisis, not a whole lot. but when you look at upside in kb homes, pulte homes, i own it. so i'm waiting for any type of bleed of positive news. you are going to get ten-fold the positive action of the stock than you'll get with home depot. they have been very trendy and very outperform-ish. but if the market comes in again, they will be selling. >> and home depot has pulled back. >> but still close to the all-time highs. >> and ivy mentioned 39% short interest, 73% rally from here gets you to levels we last saw in july. remember, they reported the quarter a few weeks ago was disappointing to say the least. they blamed the weather. that is fine. i get it with the home builders. but on short interest alone and if you believe in steve's levels that get you back to 1980 in the s&p. that could get kbh a 30% rally from here which is not out of the realm of possibility given

the short interest. so could you buy it here? you could. >> i didn't mean to cut you off. >> but home depot and lowe's are trading at multiples that don't make sense for these companies. i think we're in an environment where they have proven the premium in the multiple because they are getting market expansion and growing the online business and they are not expanding the store base like a starbucks and for that matter the stores are more profitable. i think this is the way you stay. check out shares of netflix. down 9%. the fang stocks soon follow. when they report next week. we'll break that down. i'm scott walker. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here is what else is coming up on "fast." with a historic storm bearing down on the east coast, what will americans do? >> just watching the game. having a bud. what is up with you? >> nothing. watching. >> you said it. and we've got the four companies that could see a major boost from staying indoors this

weekend. plus, worried about apple's next move? don't be. because we'll tell you how to protect your apple stock for free. and "fast" goes hollywood. not that hollywood. hollywood, florida, for the largest etf conference in the world. we'll give you an inside look into the top minds in the industry, live on monday, at 5:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc.

♪ the weather outside is frightful. welcome back to "fast money." that is the white house. a snowy one at that. lots and lots of flakes are falling in d.c. and there are plenty more to come. let's go to cnbc brian moore on the ground in the nation's capital with the details. brn? >> well, scott, not on the ground. on the snow that is on the ground. and it is just piling up. this is really just the beginning of an onslaught that will last for the next 36 hours. we're expecting more than two feet of snow before it is all said and done with. a storm that could rival the 1922 record-setter, the infamous nicker balker storm which deluged the nation's capital. let me give you a perspective.

the other night we got 1.8 inches of snow and it crippled the capital. people were stuck in cars for hours. hopefully people are heeding the warnings right now. there are snowplows out on the road, a few stragglers out but this is expected to go on tonight into tomorrow and hopefully start digging out on monday. >> brian moore live for us in washington, d.c. where, as you see, the snow is fallingch and as the east coast braced for two feet or more this weekend what, are the stocks you should be chilling out with while you are stuck inside, timmy? >> y are watching zaa. watching dominos. this is a technology company disguised as a market company disguised as a pizza company. 50% of the sales are digital. that only works in places like new york city. >> you call dominos in new york city? >> i have. >> i'm eating dominos.

people are. this company is growing. patrick doyle one of the best in the business. i think the company continues to invest and take the industry into where the national chains are growing. >> do you know patrick doyle on air gave me credit for gluten-free pizza. people are doing streaming this weekend. and the stock is trading at par. $100. i need it to trade above $103.42 to get involved in the game. it is the 200 day moving average. there is going to be an awful lot of streaming this weekend. >> i sit down on my computer and i end up on amazon and i buy something. maybe this is a catalyst for amazon. this is a thin catalyst but let's go with it because it is a friday night and it is going to snow. why not, amazon. >> you know what g swizzle does, he is not home with his mittens on with brian moore -- >> you were during the nicker

balker storm. >> i'm going to home depot. >> is that what you call? >> it's tim's timber-land. >> and we talked about being a high multiple stock, i get it. but doing everything right. a great place to be on a snowy saturday, that is where i'll be. >> give me a final trade. >> bidy. the market is coming back. >> decker. they said it would be a nonevent. a couple more days like this, decker is going straight up. >> breathe. >> quick happy birthday to my mom. happy birthday. and buy xlu. >> miss b.k. >> great to have you back. you doing well. you do o.a. next, 5:30, you have all of the guys coming. >> i don't like to think about the warm-up act. >> hire we go. starbucks. three times normal volume, or nike, either one. but i'm thinking starbucks and then nike. that is what i'm talking about.

>> that does it for us now, guy. be sure to catch "fast money" live from hollywood, florida, monday at 5:00 p.m. eastern, inside the etf conference, you do not want to miss it. a lot of great guests. stay tuned for the aforementioned "options action." that is where the action is not, next. then, woosh, it's gone. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson. [dog bark] trust me, we're dealing with a higher intelligence here. ♪ the all-new audi q7 is here. ♪

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(train wheels on tracks) it had no mouth, but it spoke to me. it said, "rocky mountaineer: all aboard amazing". we're live at the nasdaq market site. guys getting ready behind me. and while they're doing that, look at what is coming up in the big show. >> i'm going to let you in on a little secret. >> one of the stocks is set for a major move next week on earnings. and we'll tell you how to profit. plus -- how would you like to protect your shares of apple for free? it is not only possible, it's the easiest trade out there. and we'll show you how to do it. and -- >> it is so unfair. now i'm getting emotional. i'm a little