they are. >> he said it is a like r.i.m. or blackberry. >> nobody has beaten apple. apple might be the victim of some headwinds just in general, currency being one of them. i expect to hear them talk a lot on that call. >> that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" next. "fast money" begins now, back live from the nasdaq market site overlooking "new york times" times square. tonight on "fast" there is one stock that's under five bucks that could be signaling the all clear in the economy. we'll tell you what that is, plus what its performance could mean for the markets? plus, check out shares of netflix falling despite today's huge real. could there be something fundamentally wrong with america's favorite media stock? we'll explain. starting with the biggest story happening right now in corporate america and that, of course, would be apple. earnings beating expectations an revenue iphone sales disappointing. the conference call just about to get under way and the stock is in fact a lower, pretty

volatile trade in the after hour sessions so far. we'll bring you the head loins as they break. we'll be checking in throughout the hour with bgc's colin gillis manning the red phone and meantime, guy, what do you make of the quarter? >> i think given where the price of the stock is, let's just call it $100. i think it's something for everybody. bears will point to the iphone shipments being somewhat disappointing. bulls will point to increasing margin improvement and bears will point to the tax rate being a help to eps. bulls report -- maybe will report to the fact that revenues were not as bad as some of the nay sayers on the street were going to say given what we heard from the supply side. right here where it's trading 99 is a coin flip. given the choice between the two i think you buy it here. >> the conference call will really be key in terms of breaking the tie between the bulls and bears. what would be your number one question for tim cook? >> i guess it would be forward

guidance which wasn't fantastic, right, though you wonder is he being a little conservative in that guidance. i i don't know. this is disappointing and in a different take i think it would be received better. as guy said, it's really attractively priced in terms of pe, but i don't think that's what investors will focus on. >> you're focusing on the bear case. >> not particularly. i think it was a pretty uneventful quarter. you did the whole bull/bear debate, so i'm just saying that, way to think out loud. listen, here's the one thing that i'd be interested in asking how they are going to do is last quarter international sales were 67%. this year 66% -- this quarter 66%, so that's rising, and we know, you know, with the strength of the dollar, we know where the growth is going to come from. you know, obviously there's a huge concern over china. all of last year china grew year over year 70% to 120% in each quarter. this quarter it's up 15% year over year so it's coming up

against some very tough compares. >> right. >> but i guess the pointsy think it's pretty well known story. i don't -- don't tell me about valuation or that balance sheet because it was the whole way up on the way to 130 and now here we are at 100. >> i think what i would ask is what's next. where are you going to be focused on? >> i think karen is right. that soft guidance going forward, i think it's purposeful. he doesn't have a shot at the march quarter so he wants to throw it all out. >> take it down. >> exactly. i would think about where they focus next, the car, another phone, and i think the fact that it's basically unched means it's all priced in. the call would be a lot. before we came out i said i wouldn't be shocked trading at 49 or 102. saw the 104, 103 and now it backtracks a little bit and guys are poised to sit or add to their position now which is what i want to do, i'm waiting for that, waiting for another flush in the overall act to add to my already long position. >> you know what's really frustrating from a product

standpoint. that's what's driven this stock for years and years and the problem i see is you had asps for the ipad, down $20, year over year and we know the ipad has been "x" growth for a while and not even wheeling three-quarters in to tell us how much watch units they sold and that's really frustrating if you're an investor who plays on the whole idea that this is a product story. >> apple ceo tim cook is just getting started is on the conference call. let's listen in. >> this is a huge accomplishment for our company, especially given the turbulent world around us. in constant currency our growth rate would have been 8%. our record revenue and continued strong operating performance also led to an all-time record quarterly income of $18.4 billion. we sold 74.8 filion iknowns in the december quarter, an all-time high. to put that volume into perspective it's an average of over 34,000 iphones an hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week for 13 straight weeks.

it's almost 50% more than our volume two years ago and more than four times our volume five years ago. 74.8 million iphones is an incredible number, and it speaks to both the immense popularity of iphone and the phenomenal execution of our teams to deliver a massive number of devices in such a short period of time. our results are particularly impressive given the challenging global macro economic environment. we're seeing extreme conditions unlike anything we've ever experienced before just about everywhere we look. major markets including brazil, russia, japan, canada, southeast asia, australia, turkey and the eurozone have been impacted by slowing economic growth, falling commodity prices and weakening currencies. since the end of fiscal 2014, for instance, the euro and british pound are down double digits and major currencies such as the canadian dollar,

australian dollar, mexican peso and turkish lire have declined 20% or more. the brazilian real is down more than 40% and the russian ruble has declined more than 50%. two-thirds of apple's revenue is now generated outside the united states so foreign currency fluctuations have a very meaningful impact on our results. page one of our supplemental material illustrates this point. $100 of apple's non-u.s. dollar revenue in q4 of '14 translated to only $85 last quarter due to the weakening currencies in our international markets. as you can see, the movement has been dramatic. last quarter alone, the currency impact has been very large. page 2 of our supplemental material indicates our q1 revenue and growth rates expressed in constant currency. the 8% growth rate i spoke about

earlier translates to 80.8 billion in constant currency revenue which is $5 billion more than our reported revenue. for perspective, that difference is about the size of the annual revenue of a fortune 500 company. we know the conditions in china have been a source of concern for many investors. last summer while many companies were experiencing weakness in their china-based results, we were seeing just the opposite with incredible momentum for iphone, mac and the app store in particular. in the december quarter, despite the turbulent environment, we produced our best results ever in greater china with revenue growing 14% over last year, 47% sequentially and 17% year over year in constant currency. these great results were fueled by our highest ever quarterly iphone sales and record app

store performance. notwithstanding these record results, we began to see some signs of economic softness in greater china earlier this month, most notably in hong kong. beyond the short-term volatility, we remain very confident about the long-term potential. china market and the large opportunities ahead of us, and we are maintaining our investment plants. despite the economic challenges all over the world, apple remains incredibly strong. we have a very satisfied and loyal customer base. we saw a greater number of switchers from android to iphone than ever in q1, and we are very optimistic about our business over the long term. innovation has always been the reason behind our success, and we remain committed to making the best products in the world and expanding the apple experience to change our customers' lives in better and more meaningful ways. we've invested through economic

uncertainty in the past, and we've always come out stronger on the other side. in fact, some of the most important breakthrough products in apple's history were born as a result of investing through the downturn. we've also seen these times as opportunities to invest in new markets just as we're doing now in areas such as india and other emerging markets. getting back to our record q1 performance, let me give you some highlights of what we've accomplished since our last quarterly call together. we shipped the amazing new ipad pro which has been extremely well received by customers along with the new smart keyboard and revolutionary apple pencil. we launched the all-new apple tv with its own app store laying the foundation for the future of television. we had our best quarter by far for apple tv sales and a number of apps developed for apple tv is growing rapidly. today there are over 3,600 apps delivering everything from games to entertainment to educational

programming. we expanded distribution of apple watch to almost 12,000 locations in 48 countries during the quarter. as we expected, we set a new quarterly record for apple watch sales with especially strong sales in the month of december. we released os-10 el captain, refining experience and improving performance for our mac customers and updated the entire family with entire retinal displays and an interesting new lineup of wireless accessories. we launched apple pay in canada with american express and announced plans to bring a conveniently secure and mobile secure experience to china, hong kong, spain and singapore in the coming year. consumers have spent billions of dollars with apple pay. in the second half of 2015 we saw a significant acceleration in usage with a growth rate ten times higher than in the first

half of the year. there are now hover 5 million contactless payment ready locations in the country where apple pay is live today and it's soon to be available at thousands of apple and mobile branded stations in the u.s. via the speed plus app. finally, we also shared the incredible apple music experience with even more listeners with over 10 million paying subscribers less than four months since customers began paying for the service. our financial position has never been stronger. we have the mother of all balance sheets with almost $216 billion in cash which translates to nearly $39 per diluted share of apple stock. we continue to invest confidently in our future, and we also continue to return capital to our shareholders at a rapid pace. our investors have been asking for a while about the recurring nature of our business. especially during a period of

economic uncertainty, we believe it is important to appreciate that a significant portion of apple's revenue recurs over time. first and foremost, our customer satisfaction and retention rates are second to none and provide us with a long lasting foundation. for example, recent consumer surveys by 451 research, formerly known as change wave, measured an incredible 99% customer satisfaction rate for iphone 6 and 6s plus and an equally impressive 97% rate for the ipad air 2. they also indicate that our iphone loyalty rate is almost twice as strong as the next highest brand. in addition, a growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. because their customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content and other services. they also are very likely to buy

other apple products or replace the one that they own. and because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will love it and use it often. as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has receipt entally reached a major milestone crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. this is an unbelievable asset for us. because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues. now that we have reached a milestone of 1 billion active devices, we thought this would be a great opportunity to share more information on what has become one of the largest service businesses in the world. so now i'd like to turn the call to luca who will provide more

insight into how our platform has grown followed by details on our record quarterly results. >> thank you, tim, and good afternoon, everyone. each quarter -- >> and we've been listening to ceo tim cook on the apple conference call. he's handing it over now to the cfo for some more details on the financial aspect of the quarter, so let's talk about this. interesting most recently he talked about the recurring nature of the business and talked specifically about the install base. the apple bears would want to hear about recurring revenue in terms of subscription revenue whether for the phone or other services. >> that was part of the story. the other part to me that sort of stood out even in the face of currency headwinds, bric, brazil, rush, absolutely awful and china slowing. back to guy's point. some for the bulls, some for the bears. never had a stock have this reaction so muted in how many quarters. down 50 cents. >> really seems to be in lockstep here in the after hour

session in terms of the currency headwinds, stagger stat that he mentioned is $100 of non-u.s. revenues was $85 last quarter because of weakening currency in an international market. >> yeah, and i think, you know, we'll have the fed tomorrow. >> yeah. >> i don't think there's going to be much going on that will weaken the dollar here, even if they don't kind of continue on their rate increases so i think this muted tone about currency and about international sales has to do with the fact that this is their world and where the growth is going to come from, and i think it's really important to remember that this is a company where estimates for 2016, earnings and sales growth, were at one point a few months ago mid to high single digits and now they are single digits. estimates being that low there's the potential to be but it also has the potential i think in april we'll hear more of that kind of sour tone about china on this next call, and i think that's probably the thing that takes this stock a little bit lower. >> if you look at the top ten holders and wanted to be a seller of apple i think you sold it. i think they started to sell it already. i think the major big boys are

already out of whatever they have to be out of in the name so they needed something that was really poor on this earnings report. >> okay. >> to load up and start selling it again. i think at this point people are waiting to buy the dip, and that's probably why you don't see the stock doing anything because they are more fearful of the overall market. >> okay. so that indicates to me that you believe that there's some sort of a floor under the stock at this point because -- >> i still go with that august low basically. >> that's fine, but that doesn't tell me that the stock is going higher. >> it doesn't -- but it's not going to tell you it's going to go lower. >> true. >> this stock has been floundering now. listen, i know it traded up to 134 in may and stuff and trading $100 now, but it's been a sideways action on good tapes, bad tapes for quite some time so i don't think it tells you where it's going at all. i get they talk about the balance sheet, god bless it, but until you can repatriate that money he might as we will not talk about it because you might as we will have nothing because it's not doing him any good. >> in an election year cycle so people will talk about that debate a lot more which could be a catalyst. >> up next, the best performing

stock last year and netflix are down 14% this year and sat out the rally today. we'll tell what you had traders streaming out of the stock. plus, freeport-mcmoran soaring on better than expected earnings. is it beating down mining companies saying things are better for the global economy. we'll take a deeper dive. and one of the biggest bond managers on the street is here with a big bold call on the fed. much more "fast money" after this.

welcome back to f-fun. freeport-mcmoran soaring after reporting a smaller than expected loss. here's what the ceo will to say on the conference call earlier today. take a listen. >> we face serious challenges because of what's going on in the marketplace and because of the situation with our balance sheet. we talked about it at the end of the third quarter. we were looking at various sn e scenarios that ranged from a further decline in prices at that time to other more positive scenarios. we're experiencing the worst of those scenarios right now with copper dropping to $2 and oil dropping to $30. >> worst of the scenarios and balance sheet in nearly the same sentence. karen, not good.

>> not good. you know, the stock had a huge percentage gain, but you have to be -- you've got to be aware of what's happening on the debt side of the balance sheet. always talk about the credit analyst being way smarter than the equity analyst, okay. so the equity moved, i don't know, $300 million. there's $20 billion of debt outstanding and it's trading at a huge discount. paper that's due in '17, a year and a half from now yields 20%. that's telling you there's a huge danger of a serious possibly bankruptcy here. do not get sucked into the equity without realizing that you -- you can lose 100%. >> i get it at $4 when you see oil or copper move in the slightest, and i think a lot of that is what he was saying today on air but when you saw oil move for a $4 name you could see them move higher. >> that was a horrible rally today in the equity, horrible rally. sprint uppy 20% on better than expected results. that's the sort of face ripper

you want to see, up 6.5% after being up 12%. >> oil right now, approximate lit revenues are 4.5 billion in the oil space. 1 billion i guess in the copper space. if you see oil start to stabilize, i don't know if it also, i don't know if it's going to hold the $30 mark, but if oil holds here that's probably enough. >> risk/reward, 4 bucks. >> there's a $4 call on apple. >> they are looking possibly to sell the oil and gas business. that's what they indicate. would that be enough if they sold off assets? >> well, yes, but they are not going to get good prices that would help. maybe they can buy some time. it's interesting to me we do not see carl out there at all. >> you don't see him anywhere at all, don't see him in apple. when was the last time we heard from him? >> i wouldn't be surprised if he's out in the debt here because that's what will control. >> you made the point carl has not said a word since august about freeport-mcmoran, began from 13 down to 4 and change and

i hear what steve is saying. they have serious structural problems that now transcend just a rally in copper and in crude oil. i tend to favor karen and dan with this one. i think you fade any and all rallies for the foreseeable future. >> are you saying there's a trade in freeport? >> definitely. there's a trade here. i like -- when dan talks about option world and it's a defined risk strategy, when you're playing in equities and playing with a $4 name there's a reason why it's $4. it's an incredibly risky bet. it's a highly levered bet, but at least you know what your get is going into it, and i don't think that there's anyone out there that is shorting this name as $4. i would challenge many -- >> really? >> you know who is shorting it, people who own the debt. there's -- >> not naked, not coming out shorting the equity. >> this is a -- you know, this is a fun one. >> i would think, yeah, i mean, maybe that's what -- why it isn't up more today. i would think there's a lot of pressure on the short side. >> a 13% short interest, a 13%

short interest. i don't think it's happening. news alert on the s&p 500, a change there. let's get to seema mody in the newsroom. >> melissa, that's right. citizens financial group to be added to the s&p 500 replacing precision castparts being abiard by berkshire hathaway. on this news we're looking for shares of citizens financial up 4% after hours. melissa. >> all right, seema, thank you. we had a noise bounce in the banks today, but, of course, yesterday the action was horrendous. >> yeah. this isn't a bounce. i mean, this is nothing. i'm shocked that bank of america, steve and i were just talking about, it given its u.s. centricity that it's astounding to me. you know, it keeps going lower. >> i'm sorry, karen. quickly going back to fcx. if you want to see what happens to the other side. look at u.s. steel today up 12% and u.s. steel in the aftermarket, given almost the entire thing back after they reported earnings.

the businesses are still challenged despite -- despite the fact, that yes, we saw a bit of a rally in crude. we saw some stabilization in copper. i get it, it's bigger than in a. >> got to head to break here. let's check out shares of apple trading i believe lower at this hour. the conference call is now well under way, down three-quarters of a percent. what will tim cook say about china? we'll bring that to you as soon as we get it. i'm melissa lee on "fast money" first in business worldwide. meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast p." >> announcer: still worried about that bond bubble? well, treasuries just had their best month in a year and the head of vanguard's global fixed income says there are still opportunities. he will explain. plus -- >> let's make a deal. >> announcer: that's what traders are hoping at&t will do and buy one of the content providers. but which one? we're naming names when "fast money" returns.

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from the company's weak spots. it did lose core at&t smartphone subscribers in the corner. >> the audio, as you see there, shares are down 2%. we'll go back to jewel why as soon as we restore the audio in terms of at&t. >> no, no, go ahead. the trade is interesting, right. here's a stock that's in a range, 32.5% to 38, right smack in the middle, 34.5, 35. valuation not ridiculous or crazy. again, something for everyone. john ledger is out tweeting how in the mobility, post-pay, down 256,000. he's trumpeting that as a huge gain for t-mobile as he should. this to me is more interesting places to be. i think if it gets down to 33 you buy it. it's not there yet. the trade has been buy it at 33 and sell at 37. that stays intact given this quarter. >> what if at&t turns itself into more of a media company, buys a media asset, maybe like a

time warner or pieces of it? >> that's a really interesting idea except for the fact they just closed this massive tv deal. they don't have the assets to do it. would have to raise a lot of debt. maybe one of the thoughts was we know verizon bought aol and maybe they make a bid for yahoo!'s core, distribution advertising sort of thing and now that they have different media properties i think time warner would be too much to divide up. >> the space when you say it's not that committing, you have to look at the yield. people are claesing yields still so look at at&t 5.4% and look at verizon, a little bit less than that, but, still, i think people are looking for that t-mobile and john ledger has been the innovator in the area and been the excitement and the guy that people want to take over his company or prospectively take over his company so who knows what happens ultimately and people are searching for yield in the old numbers. >> coming up, is the gold trade back in favor. >> why traders see a huge rally in the coming months for the beaten down metal and jeffreyle

gundlach slammed janet yellen for raising rates yesterday on the show and tonight we'll hear from you one of the biggest bond fund managers and whether he agrees. we're back on a very busy "fast" right after this.

welcome back to "fast mon " money." a major rally on the street. dow jumping nearly 300 points and the nasdaq and s&p higher by more than 1% and oil settling up 4%. here's what's coming up in the second half of f-fun. jeffrey gundlach will harsh words for janet yellen and the federal reserve. did the fed rate hike come too soon? a top bond manager weighs in and the gold bulls are rushing in with gold up more than 6% this year. can this rally continue? we've got the details later. but first let's start off with apple moving lower now in the after-hours session as tim cook talks about the hurdles he's facing in china. let's get to josh lipton at apple headquarters with the very latest, josh. >> melissa, i just had the chance to speak with apple ceo tim cook a few minutes ago and

got his take on the quarter and the outlook. of course, front and center for investors, everybody wants to know how apple's business in:is performing. take a listen to what cook just told analysts about that. >> we began to see some signs of economic softness in greater china earlier this month, most notably in hong kong. beyond the short-term volatility, we remain very confident about the long-term potential of the china market and the large opportunities ahead of us, and we are maintaining our investment plans. >> reporter: so cook acknowledging some short-term softness and volatility there and that's a bit different than the language we heard in q4 where he said, remember, melissa, if he turned off the tv he wouldn't even know there's a problem and now acknowledging there is some short-term problems and cook said he's bullish long term and maintaining their investment and pointing out revenue from

greater:jumped 14% year over year and 47% sequentially hitting an all-time record there. melissa, back to you. >> josh, and so far i guess no commentary on whether or not that softness has either worsened or persisted since then? >> not yet, melissa. i would expect a lot more questions as analysts begin asking. >> josh, thanks a lot for that. josh lipton in front of apple headquarters for us. >> okay. let's do the math here. netflix said long term china, starbucks said long term china and when things get dicy, they will all spend through it. have you to. where the next 100 million customers are, but it's really important to attach these sorts of things and we also remember that intel said there are people on the ground are cautious. >> all right. let's get to colin gillis of bgc listening in on the conference call and diligently manning the red phone here. colin, are you concerned about what tim cook has said about china? i mean, as josh aptly pointed out it is a difference in tone from tim cook. >> yeah, you know, in fact,

melis melissa, if you look at the december quarter revenue number, it was at the low end of their guidance so something changed for apple in the december quarter. now, on the call they are trying to stress the recurring revenue nature of their business which is something that people have concerns about, talking about the strong install base. they are talking about the fact that you'll see a capital return program discussed on the next earnings call in april, that they are going to be active in the debt markets, but they have $200 billion, 93% of their cash is now overseas, and that's going to limit their ability to find and accelerate grown within the united states just because of the lack of cash that's available to deploy in the united states, so, you know, it's a bush. the market clearly did change for them overseas in the december quarter, and the market quarter is likely to be the hardest compare of the year for apple. >> all right. colin, keep manning that red phone. we'll check on you later on. let's quickly trade this in terms of what colin has said,

guy. i'm wondering what your thoughts are. >> all the major areas all declined, sure. ipad being the worst, down 25% year over year. ipad is not as big a deal anymore, but there's clearly a slowdown to dan's point. the question is do the fundamentals line up with the price here at $200 a share? the fundamentals aren't awful. the valuation, dan says let's not talk about it. you have to talk about it at a certain point is reasonable. if the stock market can just sort of flat line for a while i don't think you can get yourself in all that much trouble with the stuck at 99 bucks. >> this by the way looks like the after-hour session down or close to it. down 1%. colin mentioned reaction in the debt markets and a capital return on the next conference call implying maybe more buybacks. the fact of the matter is apple has reduced the shares outstanding by 10% over the past two years and some would say imagine what the stock would be if they didn't do that. but it hasn't. >> yeah. >> it hasn't really helped. >> they haven't gotten, you know, the earnings are still

trading at a declining multiple. >> right. >> so they are swimming against the tide. in this tape though it's not enough i don't think. >> it's not enough, yeah. >> not enough to keep the stock up. >> sounds like you're getting a little bit tepid on the name. >> i wouldn't add. i'm long, will stay long. i wouldn't add. i think it comes in below 100. >> the yield keeps going up. >> what? >> the dividend yield keeps going up? >> but not adding, not selling basically. that to you you're still bullish in the name. if you wanted to bail on it you would bail. >> i'm not -- >> this is the problem. karen is an investor and value investor and long-term holder and has soured on it. a lot of investors have soured on it. that's why it's down 25% in the last few months. here's the big problem, wall street analysts have not yet, 46 buys. >> the price targets are crazy. >> the price targets are up at 1240 so until the street capitulates and you start seeing that that's when it's probably okay. >> the top ten holders, already looked at it. already established that they have been selling stock except for the first one which as a mutual fund company.

they are telling already. they are not waiting for the wall street analysts. they lead, they don't wait for the wall street analysts to get sour on the name. they have definitely sold the name. the question is if it doesn't hold here is there another waive of selling, it we'll see. >> let's stick with apple and take a look at some of the major suppliers, analog devices, nxpi, qualcomm slightly lower, the apple suppliers over in china in taiwan that sort of led the charge in terms of disappointing forecasts for the march quarter which led us or investors here, people here in the u.s., to think that maybe things aren't so rosy for apple in this quarter. who does it say about the u.s. side of the supplier? >> i think norma name like texas instruments, for example, here's a stock off 18% from its 52-week high, 59 bucks, texans come out over the last six to nine months a couple different times and have surprised folks to the upside because they -- they are seemingly not relying on one industry and one company, so if you see continued weakness in

texas here, off this apple i think you buy it. >> dan, what do you think? >> here's the thing. they just guided their gross margins basically in line despite what was a pretty disappointing quarter all around and disappointing revenue guidance. what does that tell you? it means they will squeeze a lot of suppliers. i would expect to see a very disappointing q1 for some of their suppliers. that's why apple will hit the 40% gross margin. >> still going on the apple conference call and apple is setting down 1.33%. still ahead, don't look now. bonds are on pace to have their best month in a year in one of the world's largest bond managers says there's still value out there. he'll tell us where he's putting his money right now. plus, gold has been rallying all year. traders are betting on even more gains ahead. we've got all the details ahead. muff more "fast money" straight ahead. with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and university partnerships, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow.

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i don't think it's any surprise that markets around the world have been collapsed in the aftermath of the feds raising interest rates particularly because they continue to idiotically say we're going to raise rates eight times by the end of 2017. the fed has got to dial this rhetoric back or the markets are going to humiliate them by further declining. >> that was jeffrey gundlach

yesterday slamming the fed's decision to raise rates in december. since then the market has been on a wild ride with no end in sight. but the turmoil has given treasuries a big boost. greg davis runs the largest bond fund in the world and is vanguard's principal and global head of fixed income. great to see you. >> great to be with you. >> what's your reaction to mr. gundlach owes commentary about the fed? >> i think we share many of the same views. i mean, at the end of the day when we think about it we expect no change in terms of the fed funds rates tomorrow and expect them to dial back some of the rhetoric in terms of doing three or four rate hikes this year and continuing on that pace for next year. you know, the market and economic conditions are just not supportive of that type of aggressive move over the course of the next year or so. >> do you think that the fed and what it did when it raised rates, did that cause the volatility and i guess that's sort of an indirect way of saying are they behind what has been a great trade for 2016 and that is long end of the treasury market? >> well, you know, think a lot of volatility that we're seeing is really the result of continued weakness in the global economic environment, and so as

we get more data coming out of china, we continue to see declining oil and commodity prices, i think that's putting pressure on the markets in general, and so, you know, the 25-basis point rate hike we saw in december in my view is not contributor, just weakness we've seen in the global markets per se. >> let me ask you something. we sort of muddle along with very muted u.s. growth and trouble overseas, a year from now if the fed hasn't raised rates would you have seen this prior rate hike as a mistake? >> i wouldn't think that's a mistake. at the end of the day the fed wanted to get off the lower bound of zero and trying to move over time to get off the lower bound is absolutely the right thing to do. they have said on multiple occasions they will be data dependant and as long as they don't get too far ahead of themselves and wait for the data to improve in terms of economic data both from a growth perspective as well as inflation perspective i think they are doing the right thing. >> where do you see the ten-year yield going then, greg? >> i think at the end of the day we think ten year yields are

hovering in the 2% to 2.5% range? >> so they will go higher? >> we'll in a rafnlg right now we've been hovering at 2, the lower end of the range, and it's likely that over time we'll see it bounce around and get eventually back to 2.5%. if we see treasuries get to 2.% giving our view on the economic situation that we see in place right now we'd be a buyer in terms of getting a little bit longer in terms of duration. >> greg, great to speak with you. thanks for your time. >> thank you. >> all right. so, what do you think? you've been on the tlt trade for a big time. great month. >> if bond yields go to 2.5% it means the s&p will make an all-time high, in my opinion. i would disagree with him. we're looking at a deflation reenvironment, data darby dependant federal, what data are they dependant on, the s&p because clearly that's what's creating all the unrest out there. the data that they set forth has been met in the form of unemployment so they did what they painted themselves in the corner to do. the bond yield, the curve is going to get inverted. i think the ten-year goes to

1.5%. >> 1.5%. >> historically you've heard me say it there's a 350-point -- basis point spread between the fed funds rate and ten-year. we have basically half that, if that right now, so that curve is in very big danger of inverting, but when you look at it, they usually raise rates in the face of higher inflation, higher global growth. we don't have either of those two, so for me they were pigeon holed into doing it and they should never have done it and i don't think they are going to do it again. >> you're long tlt. >> to me it's also, you know, i think it's sort of an asymmetric thing. i don't think the tlt, i don't think it crashes up, you know what i'm saying. i don't think there's anything out thereto that can actually make yields go up dramatically is what i'm saying so to me i think the problem with what gundlach is saying, no problem with what he's saying, you know, they are only going to do something contrary to what they just did in december if the markets force them to do it and i think that's what guy's point is and then you come back to the question what sort of tricks do they have to kind of really halt

this or invigorate growth again or turn employment another way? and it's, you know, i just don't know. >> i don't know. i don't expect them to -- to raise any time soon. i agree with mr. davis. i don't see it as a mistake, but i don't know. we could see oil move a lot in a short amount of time on -- on nothing really. >> yeah, but if it goes for the wrong reasons, that could be a real problem for an economy that's not growing, right? that's the risk. >> i don't think the fed really focuses on what the s&p does. >> i'm not saying that either. >> i know you disagree. >> they have mandates. we thought it was a dual mandates. they have eight different mandates. they are worried about the s&p and the chinese market. they worry about everything now, hand that's the problem is when you worry about everything, you're worrying about nothing. >> all right. still ahead, tim cook is in fact answering questions right now from analysts so we will have more from the apple conference call. right now take a look at where the shares are trading.

we are down 1.7%, 1.8%, session lows here on apple's earnings. you're watching "fast money" on sneenz. we're first in business worldwide. >> it's more than a phone or watch, apple accounts for a huge share of the earnings outlook. what does the report mean for your money? your money? don't miss my reaction and a

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we've got a news alert on carl icahn and aig. let's get to seemor, mody. >> reporter: activist investors carl icahn is reiterating his call for more drastic action at aig despite aig's reorganization announcement this morning, that according to dow jones. icahn says ai gi should be run by somebody who understands property and casualty business. he also says aig shareholders want the company to be split up. melissa, back to you. >> seema mody, thanks for this and this comes on the heels of aig announcing a business plan here. karen, it's funny because we were just saying we haven't heard from carl in a while and here he is with aig. >> not his most aggressive though. >> yeah. >> doesn't seem to be doing much about it, and it's hufnlg the company is huge. apple is bigger, but, i don't know. >> and there are a lot of activists we should note like john paulsen. gold rallied to a three-month high. one trader bet more than $then million that the rally could

continue over the next few months. dan is is over at the as far as board with the reaction. >> gld that tracts price of gold, largest options trade in the whole market today. when the ptf was trading about 107, there was a large bullish roll. somebody sold out of a bunch of 113 and 14 calls and bought 75,000 of the march 108, 117 call spreads. they paid $1.80 for that, 1313.5 million and breaks even at 109.80 with a max gain at 120 and on march expiration. what i find really interesting about this trade, it's obviously very neither money. it's a pretty meaty trarksd and it's actually targeting an area. if you look at this right here. this is 110, a breakdown level in august, a breakdown level in november, and the break even on the trade at 109.80 is right here at 110 at that level. here's the thing. without getting too excited about that rally that could happen, look at this downtrend. it's been so well defined here

over the last three years here. it's made a series of lower highs and lower loews and so there's a bunch counter trend rallies. i expect gold, gld, to fail at that the downtrend which is actually just below the -- the high end of this call spread, so to me i think this rally is probably borne into a grave. i don't know why gold ever rallies here but one way to do is define your risk and pick the levels on the chart and this one looks sglok so if dan is all right, guy? >> born into a grave, what is that? that's like yukky. >> yeah. >> born into a grave. >> perhaps to the gdx? >> i would respectfully disagree. i think at a certain point gold breaks out. maybe we're at that innext point. clearly something has been going on for last couple of weeks. traded really well in the face of a lot of cross-currents out there. i like -- not to give await ghost here. >> yeah. >> but i sort of dig gdx. i like what it's been doing over the last few sessions. >> just gave it away. >> more "options action" and check out the full show 5:30 p.m. eastern on friday. one last look at apple in the

after-hours session and just about at the lovitz session. much more "fast money" right after this. it's more than a watphone o watch. what does their market report mean for the money? don't miss my reaction and what you must be watching. "mad money" is next. can a business have a mind?

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apple right now at the lows of the session. remember, something for everybody. bulls and bears, but also the commentary from tim cook about china. he's walking back his optimism there, at left in the short term. let's get to the final trade starting off with colin gillis. colin, grade the apple earnings report. where do you stand? >> it was a record quarter. generated record profits, right, burks unfortunately, the quarter is going to see a slowdown and decline in march, and when you think about where apple wants to position themselves, they are still very dependant on their hardware, and they get deserved a hardware multiple. briefly, right. this is a company that's got to be stuck in a trading range, going to get a little bit -- >> what's the gray? >> stuck in a trading range. >> all right. >> dan in. >> i agree. i think that range kind of tilts lower. i think sell calls against your lock stock. >> grasso? >> bank of america, we'll see something much bigger and much more negative bank of america than i am long. watch it. >> karen?

>> golar up friday on the schlumberger deal, i like golar, way oversold. >> i say gdx is going higher. >> our thanks to mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make frepds, i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to teach and educate. call me 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. sometimes, sometimes, the weight of the evidence does indeed tip toward what this market is actually composed of. the stocks of individual companies.