good morning, everyone. welcome. you're now watching "street signs." i'm louisa bojesen. >> and i'm nancy hulgrave. these are your headlines. >> well, outflows on outflows. ubs plunges as investors focus on wealth management withdrawals instead of the bank's best profits since 2010. the ceo says the markets are to blame. >> it's not the kind of good volatility for us. it paralyzes our investors, being institutional or private. >> and bp shares suffering a similar fate, falling nearly 7% after the oil producer posts its

worst annual loss in 20 years amid the collapse in crude prices. >> a digital deal. a 1.3 billion pound offer for home retail, hoping the owner of argos will boost its online business. >> and a dose of midwestern drama for you. hillary clinton squeaks by bernie sanders while ted cruz defies the polls to trump trump and take the top spot in iowa. >> tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. good morning, everybody. i like that one, trump trump. >> too easy, isn't it? >> i think cruz might be using that one today. >> cruising to victory. >> the puns are all over. more on that later. we'll be talking plenty of u.s.

politics. our markets today, we're just an hour into trade. if you're just joining us, we're a little bit on the negative side of things, i think it's safe to say. we were called slightly lower. we saw a lower session overnight in asia. we'll get to that in a second, after this manufacturing data that was a bit weaker than anticipated. and today maybe just a little bit of the same of yesterday. kind of treading water, trying to figure out whether or not we're going to see another january or whether we're going to move into a completely different february than what we saw this past month. an atrocious month for oa lot o you strong traders. all of our european indexes in negative territory. 1.5% to 2% lower. and we have earnings upon us. >> that's right. a big mover in today's session. among these movers, shares in ubs have dropped near the bottom of the stoxx 600. clients withdrew 3.4 billion

swiss francs, overshadowing their best year since 2010 when it comes to actual earnings. net profits soared by 79%, which prompted ubs to raise its dividend to 0.85 swiss francs per share. let's get to julia. you've been talking to the ceo of ubs. give us the feeling on the ground from headquarters. >> morning, nancy. i think you quite rightly point out the outflows from the wealth management business certainly not expected particularly when you compare what we heard yesterday, they they've seen net new money added to the tune of 3.4 billion swiss. we're talking emerging market, even european clients. despite the fact they saw inflows from the asia pacific, which was the kicker in the third quarter. but overall, adjusted pretax profits a touch shy expected, and then we got that 715 million

swiss net deferred tax benefit. so they guided around 500 million swiss. even that a little bit more than expected. also, the investment banking sector coming in slightly weaker than expected as well. a real challenge even for their revenues from the equity business, which is one of the key drivers. a bright spot obviously the dividend which overall beat expectations, even if 25 cents of that was a special dividend. i asked the ceo what's the message to investors here. >> the message to our shareholders is we're fulfilling our commitments, that we would pay at least 50% of our net profits, and we did so by increasing our dividend by 20%. we're confirming also a special dividend for this year thanks to the right deferred assets. when i look into 2016, we're still aiming at growing our ordinary dividend going forward. >> what about the investment banking division? again, this is a challenge whether it's equities, fx rates.

how are you managing that? >> well, it's not the kind of good volatility for us because it's volatility that's paralyzes our investors, being institutional or private investors. so i see clients being happy with our asset allocation at this stage. they believe the underlying fundamentals are still okay. so they don't trade in or out. so you see a lot of volatility. >> do you think that changes in 2016? because of all the head winds that we can see out there actually, i struggle to see what goes away. >> yeah, i struggle as well to see. our outlook has been quite constant. i see this convergence of geopolitical issues with economic issues still putting a lot of pressure on investor

sentiment. >> you disappointed investors in the third quarter with pushing back a year on your return. what are we looking at given what you've achieved in the first quarter here? are you still targeting 2017 or trying to pull that back? >> actually, we're very pleased. this year we achieved almost 14% return on intangible equities. we're working on our growth stories, on cost. by also managing better our balance sheet. we're still aiming at achieving our targets. of course the environment is tough. it's too early in january, early february to talk about those topics. but we still work on it. >> but you're going to try and get it in 2016 anyway? >> well, yes, we're working. this year was a good demonstration that even though we had a challenging environment, we almost got to the 15%, which is well above our target for this year. >> i want to wrap up by asking you again, what differentiates you, what are investors missing

in the share price at this moment? obviously it's been a tough period for all banks. what in 2016 can differentiate you? is it potential for rising u.s. interest rate, the way you manage your business, what makes a difference here for you and what are investors missing? >> we are very pleased in the way our shareholders have been rewording our strategy. our commitment is to continue to grow. of course, we also need a better fundamental market environment to drive higher share price. we need to show discipline and sustainability over the years. we're in a long-term business. we cannot manage our business on a quarter by quarter basis. >> slightly less pleased on the current share price given today's market moves, but i don't think he was pulling his punches there. paralyzing levels of volatility, a challenging quarter, pronounced risk aversion. when i say, look, of all these

heads winds, what changes going forward? he doesn't see much. just the sheer difficulties of running a business, whether it's the investmented banking division or running a client's money. back to you. >> julia, thank you very much for that. a lot of movement in ubs as seen here. let's move on and talk about another company where we're seeing a lot of movement. bp, shares there trading sharply lower after the oil giant reported a $6.5 billion loss in 2015, marking its worst showing in 20 years. the british company says that it's going to cut 7,000 jobs by next year, which represents around 9% of its work force. speaking on bp's restructuring plan, the ceo said that the company was, quote, moving rapidly to adapt to a changing environment. now, another oil major out there is getting set to report its fourth quarter earnings. that's exxonmobil. results are due before the u.s. market opens at 8:00 a.m. eastern time.

be sure to stay tuned for that. >> it's not just the oil companies, of course. we've been talking about the pressure that it the lower oil price is having on the nations that export oil. no surprise here that the dwindling oil revenues are continuing to ramp up pressure on the russian government. they're looking at ways to privatize perhaps a number of the largest state-owned companies. this according to an ft report that says the heads were summoned to a meeting with mr. putin on monday to discuss various privatization options. meanwhile, oil prices are on the slide once again in today's session. this after goldman sachs dashed opens that opec and russia could cooperate on output cuts. this, of course, weighing on crude overnight. as you can see, brent off almost 1.7%. >> and we saw that huge move in crude as well yesterday. asian markets, they were driven lower by that 7% drop. this as the indian and australian central banks both kept benchmark rates on hold. meanwhile, mainland china

markets have been bucking the trend a bit with the shanghai composite closing up by over 2%. sri joins us from singapore. good to see you again today. how are you? >> not too bad at all. so as you pointed out, we are seeing this divergence between the broad regional markets, under pressure because that correlation with with the oil price still remains very tight, very strong. but here's the divergence. shanghai composite, blue chip csi, up by more than 2%. however, look at the volumes. that tells you this is not a conviction rally. we've seen these false dawns before. yes, the small caps are amongst the big advances today, but these type of rallies typically very short lived given the fact they're happening in thin liquidity conditions. this is going to be the normal up to the chai these lunar new year. let's also not forget that the data typically is distorted around this time of year because of cny. so you've got to take it with a

proverbial pinch of salt. it's really the correlation with oil that's the big story. elsewhere, we did have some central bank meetings with the rba and rbi in india and australia. standing pat on policy. the rba giving a bit of nod to the global market and volatility and keeping the door open to some further easing. i think the real story in australia was the continued stress that the miners were under. remember, big decliners today. bhp and rio off by more than 1% at one juncture in the trading day. the big question after that credit rating downgrade, after the cut by s&p is really whether the dividend is intact given the fact the industry is cost cutting. i'll leave with that thought. that's where we stand at the end of the trading day in asia. >> sri, have a good evening. the end of your trading day. we're just starting here in europe. i'm assuming you're just starting out there as well.

e-mail the show, nice and early. the address is streetsignseurope@cnbc.com. we're on twitter as well. @streetsignscnbc. you can find both nancy and myself on twitter as well. @nancycnbc or @louisa bojesen. >> so much still coming up. wasn't exactly a smooth cruise to victory, but texas ted jumps over trump. we'll hit the campaign trail for the latest. plus, the letter "a" is no longer for apple. it's now for alphabet as the parent company of google storms ahead to become the number one most valuable u.s. company in after hours trade. stay tuned top find out what exactly powered the tech titan to reach the top. plus, danske bank's cfo right after this.

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good morning and welcome back to "street signs." big moves in the retail sector here today in the u.k. ocado trading sharply higher after achieving profits of 81.5 million pounds. that came in just ahead of forecasts for the full year and november. the supermarket said it's confident in signing deals overseas for the medium term. but the ceo denied speaking to amazon, referring to an earlier report flagging possible interest from the e-commerce giant. >> well, home retail is trading lower after sainsbury's agreed to buy it for 1.3 billion pounds. shares in the owner of argas

have jumped amid speculation. tony, good to have you with us. what do you think, is this deal going to be a win-win long term? >> i think home retail shareholders will be pretty grateful to get out. in terms of sainsbury's shareholders, it's not a very good business to buy because it's in a very competitively disadvantaged part of the market. they're sort of head on with amazon. a lot of sectors. commercially, long term, i think it's a poor deal for sainsbury's shareholders, even though it's being dressed up in the short term. >> you say that, tony, but if you are sainsbury's and you want to be more online, you can't go for amazon, or maybe you can,

but the likelihood of sainsbury's being able to take over amazon is much less than being able to take over home retail. doesn't it make sense in terms of the strategy that sainsbury's is trying to proceed with? >> the problem is that amazon is going for home retail. that's the main point. they're buying something which really is in the cross hairs of the leading online retailer in the world. so they are going to be forced to have an aggressive competitor in their nonfood business. they will get some benefits from argos' knowledge within the market, but those will be offset by the competitive pressure they'll put on themselves by this move. >> and tony, that's your view, but when you look at sainsbury's stock, it's up about 3% today. so there's something that shareholders like here. is it the digital they hope to get, is it the distribution channels they see as a way to take on amazon? what's the key to this deal? >> well, they're talking about

earnings in double digits within three years. i guess that's probably got something to do with the share price movement. i'm actually quite surprised it's not up more given the amount of enhancement they're talking about. so i would guess the market is looking at the numbers being given by sainsbury's and sort of degrading them a bit because they're not sure that sainsbury's can deliver these gains. but like i said, there are some things sainsbury's can learn from home retail group and argos. it's made a lot of investments to improve its own business over the last two to three years. and to improve its delivery systems. they're being forced to doed this stuff because of the competition. they have a margin of about 2%, which in nonfood retail is a very low margin. that's because of competitive pressure. >> all right.

tony, thank you for that view. senior analyst in food and retail. >> all right. let's move on. danske bank has reported forecast beating fourth quarter pretext profits thanks to higher trading income. shares in the danish lender have been higher this morning in trade up by some 4% now, following the strong figures, danske said it would announce a buyback scheme. joining us now is the cfo. good to have you with us this morning. your pretext profits beating forecast. you launched this share buyback program as well, as broadly anticipated by many. would you say that you've properly turned the corner now from the financial crisis, which many would say you were so much more exposed to because of your exposure to ireland, which essentially collapsed? where are you now? >> yes, i think it's fair to say we have now really turned the corner compared with the financial crisis. it's right as you mentioned that we lost a lot of money in

ireland. we've put all that behind us, and we're really pleased by showing results. >> i spoke to somebody recently talking about how difficult it's become to be in banking in the nordic region because of all the red tape and regulations that a lot of the other banks abroad have been seeing for the last couple years. now properly coming home to bite in the nordic region too. how do you find the operating environment as one of the biggest lenders in the nordic region? >> the environment is currently quite challenging. let me just mention the very low interest rates. we have even negative interest rates in denmark, as you may know. so in that way, it is a change in environment, so we're virtually earning nothing on deposits. at the same time, also the growth prospects in the nordic

region is relatively limited. so in that way, it is a challenging environment. but on the other hand, this deal is small growth, picking up in the nordic region, and i think we've had a good run in 2017 doing a lot more business with existing customers and also getting new customers across the nordic region. so we are working hard on working in an environment with extremely low interest rates. >> and henrik, on that point about the low interest rates, negative interest rates in your case, do you worry the central bank is putting too much of a focus on price stability and sacrificing financial stability in some cases? >> i think the government and the central bank has a prudent approach both to financial stability and price stability. but as you know, denmark is tied to europe. we have really low interest rates. that's also filtered into the danish economy. but we're trying to find our way

around it, growing a little bit in norway, sweden, and denmark, and also having a lot of activity among our customers. then also, we talked about we have put 100% behind us, contributing to the good development in our capital ratios. >> under a great deal of focus on the energy sector exposure. you previously shrugged off concern about energy sector expoture. are you even more concerned given the oil prices? >> the oil price level is of course a concern. we're following that very closely. we have also in q-4 taken some collective provisioning in relating to our oil exposure. but you're right, that's an area we need to follow closely. >> can you give us a better idea of what your exposure is to the energy sector? >> our exposure to the energy sector is 20-something billion. we're following that really

closely. >> you're stepping away from the job, i understand, after many years at danske bank. what can you tell us about the man who's going to be taking over as cfo? >> he will take over by the end of march. he's an extremely bright guy. he's been in the london market. he's been the cfo and in asset management. he's very well equipped for this job. >> thank you very much for being with us. good luck on your ventures, whatever they may be. cfo at danske bank. now, shares in swedbank have been inching higher. speaking to "squawk box" earlier, the ceo explained what

it meant for the bank to be in a strong capital position. >> we can focus entirely on increasing customer satisfaction. one of the big trends is digitalization. 80% or 85% of both corporate and private customers are digital. we want to be a strong player there and provide them with new services. it's also all about being cost efficient. therefore, i'm very proud that we are meeting our costs for both '15 and continue to reiterate lower costs for '16. well, we finally have some reports out of the iowa caucus. ted cruz has won for the republican party, claiming 28% of the vote. donald trump, while he came in second, and marco rubio in third place. trump had led the latest polls going into the vote, but the race brought out a record number of primary voters, and they showed up for cruz.

>> tonight is a victory for the grassroots. tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. >> donald trump, on the other hand, said he was honored to come in second place in iowa, adding that he will hopefully be declaring victory in new hampshire next week. the polls show trump still leads in new hampshire, despite him falling 4% short of the predictions in iowa. >> now, meanwhile, msnbc, they've called iowa for hillary clinton after she and bernie sanders finished in an almost dead heat. >> they were calling it a near coin toss up to the last minute. >> i know. very neck and neck. some are saying it's a victory for hillary because she did so poorly in iowa last time around. others are saying that she should have done better.

and actually, the victory is for sanders. >> depends which way you want to view it. focus already turning to new hampshire. a lot of polls showing bernie sanders in the lead. so hillary clinton will need to keep this charge going given the results were so close. b looking back five months ago, six months ago, she was nearly considered a shoo-in. in some way, she may be a bit relieved but still somewhat of a surprise. >> i'm wondering whether or not the u.s. election is going to turn into what we've seen here in europe many a time where the polls say one thing and the election is completely different and whether we'll be seeing more of that. >> part of the symptom of starting the campaigning so early. there's so much enthusiasm, exciteme excitement, and the actual voting comes and turnout is so key. >> turnout is key and keeping voter fatigue at by as well. or election fatigue at bay. now "a" is no longer for apple. it's for alphabet as the parent

company of google storms ahead to become the number one u.s. company. stay tuned to find out what powered the tech titan to reach the top. you're watching "street signs." we're on twitter. come and join the conversation here this morning.

welcome to "street signs," everyone. i'm nancy hulgrave. >> i'm louisa bojesen. let's get you the headlines. >> outflows on outflows. ubs plunges 8% as investors focus in on wealth management withdrawals instead of the bank's best profit since 2010. meanwhile, the ceo says the markets are to blame. >> it's not the kind of good volatility for us because it's volatility that paralyzes our investors, being institutional or private investors. now, bp shares have been suffering a similar fate, falling by almost 7% after the oil producer posts its first annual loss in 20 years.

that's amid the collapse in crude prices. and a digital deal. sainsbury's makes a 1.3 billion pound offer for the homemaker, hoping argos will boost its business. and hillary clinton squeaks by bernie sanders while ted cruz defines the polls to thump trump and take the top spot in iowa. >> tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. good morning and welcome back to "street signs." it's a busy day here with earnings in europe. let's give you a check on how u.s. markets are set to open after a busy session in after-hours trade. although, before google and other companies were reporting, we had a relatively flat session with the dow erasing early losses, the s&p barely into negative territory. this is the picture going into

trade today. dow jones now called lower by about 150 points. the nasdaq called lower as well. we could be seeing a correlation with energy prices. we'll look at it in just a minute. both crude and wti falling in the neighborhood of 2%. we have red arrows across the board here in europe, despite earnings sentiment to the upside. earnings disappointments as well. the ftse 100 off about 1.5%. the same story for the german xetra dax. >> now, the asian markets, as said in their session overnight, slightly mixed with the shanghai composite managing to e see gains to the tune of 2%, 2.5% on the close there. the rest of the asian markets closing off in negative territory by just shy of 1% for many of them. the australian market down by just a percent. but pushing interest rates into negative territory has been surprisingly successful. that's according to stanley fischer. speaking at the council on foreign relations on monday, the

federal reserve's vice chairman said that negative rates in certain countries were, quote, working more than i could say i expected back in 2012, end quote. but when asked about the fed's next move, fischer was extremely cautious. >> the world is an uncertain place. what will happen is often different from what we currently expect. that is why the committee has repeatedly indicated that its policy decisions will be data dependent. >> now, the bank of japan's unprecedented shift into negative interest rates is starting to have effects on the nation's banking sector. we're starting to see it filtering through? >> yes, indeed. so banks have lost the opportunity of earning interest at the boj starting february 16th. that led to investors rushing to the safety of government bonds

in returns for jgb sinking across the board. private sector banks have started to slash deposit rates. some bankers have lowered rates on fixed term deposits to the same level as ordinary deposits. one example is sony bank, which slashed its ordinary deposit rate from 0.02% to 0.001%, which means depositing $1 million for a year would earn you just $10. the rate is in line with a record low marked at the time of quantitative easing by the boj ten years ago. on the other hand, though, households may start seeing benefits in terms of lower mortgage rates, which are currently at around 1%. however, in the long run, japan's megabanks are expected to feel the squeeze and total net profit of the five top banks for the nine months through december was down 8%, which is a first since the financial crisis back in 2008. rates on domestic loans are already low due to large-scale

quantitative easing. the bank of tokyo mitsubishi ufj figure has been below 1% for the last three quarters. banks are expected to see yields fall further since demand for funds isn't likely to grow quickly, but the narrowing margin will have an impact on profits. that's all from the nikkei. back to you. >> thank you very much. now, i just want to update you on flashes just coming through via our wires. according to reuters, russia is open to foreign investors taking part in privatizations. that's according to a spokesman from the kremlin. on top of that, they're talking about how a list of companies is to be privatized and the size of stakes yet to be finalized as well. this as they're looking closer at potential privatization of a number of large companies. >> meanwhile, let's bring in

european's head of global market research at bank of tokyo mitsubishi. pleasure to have you with us. thanks for joining us this morning. i want to get more back into the discussion over japan. of course, we've had the bank of japan joining others into the negative interest rate territory, but will it be enough? we know they say they don't target the yen, but this has something to do with it. since that announcement, we've seen the dollar gaining strength, back up around 1.20 level. is that enough to satisfy pol y policymakers in japan? >> no. i think you're right, firstly. for me, if you look at qqe-1, qqe-2, we had big moves for dollar-yen. it's very, very clear we're not going to get the same impact on this occasion. i think one of the worries could be that what this shift to an interest rate focused policy has done is i think emphasized the fact that in terms of asset purchases, the bank of japan has

run up to the ends of its course, and it's going to be very, very difficult to expand that side of policy. yes, they can cut rates into deeper negative territory, but i think politically, it's a lot more difficult to be aggressive on this policy. really, it's a story of the bank of japan is ult mayimately runn out of options. >> given those limitations, it begs the question of what's left to do on the fiscal side of things. we have a new economy minister for japan coming in. are you confident abenomics can have a transformation here? >> it's difficult. i think when you're in circumstances, what's happening globally, the ability to do that becomes so much more difficult. you have to first of all acknowledge there has been success. as the boj and governor kuroda highlights, underlying inflation, stripping out fresh food and energy, is at 1.3% and it's been drifting higher.

there is evidence there of underlying inflation picking up. more than anything, it was probably to try and protect the credibility of the boj that they took these steps. hopefully the international conditions later this year will become more conducive to helping the boj in its attempts. >> so we have denmark. we've got sweden. we've got the eu. we have got japan. all with negative rates. we've got market turmoil still. any given day, you have oil prices doing a 7% move up or down. plus all the other worries. how does all of that sit together with actual trade and what we're seeing in the yen? for example, the move lower recently we saw on the dollar-yen. is a move like that sustainable? do we expect more volatility from the safe haven yen trade? >> it's about will this step from the boj encourage greater capital outflows from japan. i think without a convincing story on lifting inflation expectations, which doesn't really seem to be there, it's

going to be very difficult to push dollar-yen higher from here. you know, our view is that if the international financial market conditions do not change, if anything, we're just starting from a higher point because of what the boj has done, for the yen to gradually strengthen through this year. >> what do you think the trade is now then? if people are just joining us, it's the beginning of february. you want to make some of the money back you lost on equities during the first month of 2016. where do i do? >> well, all the central banks seem to be in this wait-and-see mode. the rba and its statements signal that. fischer mentioned it last night. it's about whether or not these financial market conditions will continue. but if you look at both sides of what potentially happens, the dollar still looks pretty good. if turmoil continues, i think we go back to the dynamic that helped the dollar in the first it months of the bull run. that is central banks outside of the u.s. become more active in easing. we're seeing that already. if the flip side takes place,

conditions improve, then very quickly the fed comes back to the table for rate increases further into this year. that, to me, is still relatively dollar supportive. so you pick your currencies you think are more vulnerable, but generally speaking, i would stick to the u.s. dollar. >> bearing that in mind, what is your call for fed rate hikes this year? how many? >> well, we have three. we don't think they'll go in march, but we think there's a good chance they go june, september, december, as long as financial market conditions broadly improve. but the domestic story in the u.s. is still very positive. consumer spending, despite what people will tell you that they're not spending money, since energy prices have been falling, consumer spending has increased. >> some of manufacturing

reporting make a difference on that. >> but you've got to look at the 87% in terms of wages, consumer spending, domestic demand. all of those factors. >> we'll hold you do that. three calls. >> we'd be silly not to change it along the way if the environment changes. >> thank you, derek. meanwhile, the big story yesterday moving after hours stateside was alphabet. the shares jumped more than 4% overnight, helping to leap over apple to become the most valuable u.s. company on an after-hour basis. this as the google parent comfortably beat fourth quarter estimates on the back of strong mobile advertising sales. the profitability of google search engine information revealed for the first time to be 31.9%. that compares to 25% for the overall alphabet group. the company's g-mail unit also surpassed the 1 billion active user milestone during the quarter. the key here of course was finding out just what that loss

was. a lot of analysts saying it was good news for the overall business. as you can see, investors like it. >> absolutely. and it's very smart. for google to e involve and to make this move, according to a lot of analysts, to turn into alphabet, have this parent company, so they can do all kinds of other things. they can focus on the oilless car. they can really move into all these arenas. they're not just stuck to just being google. >> and also providing the transparency for it too. we've known it's existed for quite some time, but a bit of a black hole when it came to spending. this is some element of reassurance. but when we talk about the most valuable firm on record, of course it's a big milestone for alphabet, we've also had to consider the other 12 firms that once had the biggest market value on the s&p 500. with the likes of exxonmobil, at&t at one point, microsoft, dupont, walmart, gm, which has

fallen quite significantly since that time. when we talk about alphabet hitting this record, keep in perspective the decline we've seen in apple's market cap just since last year when it was closer to around 700 billion. >> this is where it becomes fascinating with regards to disruptive technologies and how disruptive technologies potentially are going to be disrupting big, traditional sectors as we know them and either making them disappear cle completely because it changes the industry so much, or you have to keep up with the movements that are happening. is the banking sector going to be a traditionally banking sector in 50 years? >> they're all adapting. >> they have to, exactly. shares in the struggling tech company yahoo! have fallen slightly on the back of a "wall street journal" report claiming that the company is set to shed 15% of its work force or roughly

1600 jobs. they're expected to publicly announce the cuts when it reports earnings later on today. and opec can't agree on anything. abenomics is being criticized, donald trump offending people again. does it feel like groundhog day? >> it does, day after day. >> well, it is. it's groundhog day today. crowds will be gathering in punxsutawney, pennsylvania, to see if a groundhog named phil will see his shadow. if he does, legend has it that there will be six more weeks of winter. if he doesn't, then get ready for an early spring. but the excitement, though, may be proving to be a little too much for some because canada's groundhog has died just two days before her very big gig. >> i don't like this story anymore. >> i know. staff said one moment she was acting as her normal self. the next moment, she was gone.

>> stage fright. gets the best of us. >> the poor thing. she didn't look all that pleased in the picture. >> no, no. >> blame it on the groundhog. >> hope she has a decent understudy there in canada. >> when you get up and feel like you've done something before and you're like, i know i've done this. >> yes. >> there is actually -- >> groundhog day phenomenon. markets do it over and over again. still coming up on the show, certainly not groundhog day for the presidential election. and it wasn't exactly a cruise to victory, but texas ted jumping over trump while haillay just avoids getting burned. we'll go to the campaign trail after this. virus hits big. with aches, chills, and fever, there's no such thing as a little flu. and it needs a big solution: an antiviral. so when the flu hits, call your doctor right away and up the ante with antiviral tamiflu.

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welcome back to "street signs." well, ted cruz has won the iowa caucus for the republican party, claiming 28% of the vote.

now, donald trump, meanwhile, came in second place. and marco rubio in third. trump had led the polls going into the vote, and the race brought out a record number of primary voters. they showed up for cruz, who received the most votes ever for winning in a gop candidate in iowa. >> tonight is a victory for the grassroots. [ cheers and applause ] tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. >> now, donald trump said that he was honored to come in second in iowa, adding he'll hopefully be declaring victory in new hampshire next week. the polls show that trump leads there despite him falling 4% short of the predictions in iowa. >> we finished second, and i want to tell you something. i'm just honored. i'm really honored. and i want to congratulate ted, and i want to congratulate all

of the incredible candidates, including mike huckabee, who's become a really good friend of mine. so congratulations to everybody. congratulations. iowa, we love you. we thank you. you're special. we will be back many, many times. in fact, i think i might come here and buy a farm. i love it, okay. thank you. thank you, everybody. >> meanwhile, marco rubio finished a strong third place with 23% of the vote. that was only one point behind donald trump. a bit better than a lot of the polls had expected going into this contest. he said the position would now give him a platform to progress in the race with some commentators having written him off before this iowa caucus. >> when i am a nominee, we will unite our party, grow our party, and we will defeat hillary clinton or bernie sanders or whoever they nominate. i want to congratulate my friend, senator ted cruz. he worked really hard here in

iowa, and he earned his victory tonight. so iowa, thank you so much. we will never forget you. we will see you soon again, and new hampshire, we will see you in the morning. >> now, meanwhile, nbc news has called iowa for hillary clinton after she and bernie sanders finished in almost a dead heat, speaking in what some called a premature victory speech. clinton vowed to rally against the republican agenda. >> we've followed their campaign very closely. i understand what they're appealing to, and i intend to stand against it. >> well, tracie potts joins us via nbc news from iowa. tracie, good to see you again. so we've got the votes in. cruz running off with the vukt ri for the republicans. looks like clinton is holding the victory stick for the democrats as well. how -- what were the surprises? how has the aftermath been? >> well, this was the night for

the underdogs. even though bernie sanders didn't win, boy, he outperformed what anyone expected. this was way closer than anyone expected. the iowa democratic party is saying it was the closest race in their state's history. this is not quite the outcome that we thought we would have, waiting until the next morning to get a definitive winner, who in this case was hillary clinton, but a big part of this story will continue to be bernie sanders, especially now going into new hampshire, where sanders has a lot of momentum. he has bested hillary clinton in the polls for weeks now in the state, right next to his home state. so this is going to make it a very competitive race for the democrats. on the other side, the underdog ted cruz, who originally was leading here, but then donald trump pulled ahead in the polls, he overperformed expectations as well. although, a lot of people might say it may have been expected because he had such a strong

ground game here. he hit every one of the 99 counties in the state and made a big deal about it from the very beginning. ted cruz knew how to win in iowa. you get out there, you meet people face to face, you get into their local communities. these are caucuses. they're not secret ballots. people want to know who their candidates are, and he played that game and played it well. >> tracie, new hampshire already the big focus here. polls once again pointing to donald trump in the lead on the gop side. if we get another upset when it comes to the poll predictions, will it be enough for trump to drop out, or is this a long race he's considered going forward? >> oh, i don't expect donald trump to drop out any time soon, certainly not before south carolina and other states he's poured effort into. new hampshire is a very different animal. new hampshire is very different than iowa. not only because it's a primary instead of a caucus, but the dynamics there are very different. for the democrats, you've got

bernie sanders, who is running very strong. that's his home turf. then you've got donald trump, who has a much stronger lead in new hampshire. some of the other candidates who didn't perform well here at all, like chris christie, who have also been strong in new hampshire. in fact, he left iowa and went to new hampshire yesterday, realizing this was basically not the place that he wanted to put all his eggs in this basket, but that he needed to focus on new hampshire at this point. >> when we heard from hillary clinton there, it struck me that it was interesting to note she really focused on the republican side, how she could take on the republicans as opposed to her democratic opponent. does this signal to you that her key for victory continues to be to say that she can win on a national stage? >> you could almost see her thinking what bill clinton did many years ago. the comeback kid. first of all, she came out while ted cruz was speaking.

that's almost unheard of. we had to switch from one to the other. she declared victory before either her party did, before any of the networks did. her people declared victory. a lot of the media were sort of scratching their heads as to what the evidence was behind that. eventually, she was declared the apparent winner early this morning. then she went straight for the republicans. hillary clinton's game plan seems to be act like a winner, even if the numbers aren't quite there yet, even if the numbers are kind of tight. it's a matter of perception. tell people you're the winner, and maybe the votes will follow. >> thank you, tracie. thank you very much. tracie potts joining us live from iowa. now, a tough day for donald trump. not only did he disappoint in iowa, but also the recording star adele says she does not approve of trump using her song "rolling in the deep." he used the song when introduced in iowa by sarah palin. she said she hasn't given anyone

permission to use her music for political campaigns. >> that would make me quite angry. you have to wonder whether or not they paid for it. normally if you get beyond a certain number of people in the audience, you have to pay royalties. >> regardless of side, just ask. >> that's true. adele being so popular as well. don't want that one against you. anyway, we want to know how you spend your sunday nights. maybe not watching football. so perhaps this is good news for you. it's not just sundays anymore. soon you'll be waiting all day for thursday night too. nbc, cbs, and nfl have announce ed nbc will carry thursday night football through 2016. this comes as everyone gears up for super bowl 50. the scramble to secure advertising space is as fierce as ever. but with a 30-second commercial

costing around just $5 million, is it really worth it? julia boorstin sent this report. >> reporter: despite talk about cord cutting and the rise of digital video, marketers are spending more money than ever to reach the biggest tv audience of the year. cbs ceo saying that 30-second spots for sunday's big game are selling for as much as $5 million. that's up 11% from last year and more than 70% higher from the prices in 2010. far outpacing overall ad price increases. and that doesn't include the cost of producing the ads. usually far more than a traditional tv campaign. >> it's an audience that's watching live, which makes commercials less susceptible to being skipped or zapped or otherwise blocked. so that's an attractive proposition for advertisers, and it helps bolster the price. >> reporter: with overall tv raidings sliding and audiences more fragmented than ever, the super bowl remains the one place to reach an audience this big.

last year, 114.4 million people watched in the u.s. with even more expected to tune in this year. and many companies make big bets. eight advertisers spent more than 10% of their full year media budget on the super bowl last year. many of the usual suspects will be back in force. auto makers are expected to be the leading category with eight brands advertising, including newcomer buick. but one sector, financial services, is making a surprise surge. with six financial services companies, the first time there have been more than three since 2010. and half our newcomers, suntrust, sofi, and paypal. they're among 13 first-time advertisers, including amazon, pitching its amazon echo voice command device. the digital giant looking beyond more affordable online ads to the traditional tv alternative. >> given that they're trying to launch a new product with their super bowl ad, it makes perfect sense they would look for that high-profile, high-visibility,

all-in-one fell swoop. >> reporter: marketers are also unwilling to invest in longer spots, indicating pricing growth will start to slow. julia boorstin, cnbc business news. >> so the last five super bowls have been the most watched telecasts in u.s. history. only before that, guess what was the most popular? >> i don't know. got me. >> the final of "m.a.s.h." >> never got into that. good music though. >> that's it for today's show. >> i'm nancy hulgrave. >> i'm louisa bojesen. have a lovely afternoon. much more to come on cnbc.

good morning. new this morning, ted cruz wins the iowa republican caucus, topping donald trump and marco rubio. >> on the democratic side, hillary clinton just edging out bernie sanders. mow it's on to the granite state, new hampshire. >> crushed by crude. big companies rolling out quarterly earnings. bp announcing more job cuts. up next, exxonmobil. >> and it's as easy as a, b, c. google's parent company beats the street, now surpassing apple as the most valuable company in the u.s.