a reputation at stake? tomorrow, what's up with thanle's apps? walt mussberg takes a hard look at the tech titan's software. "squawk alley" 11:30 eastern cnbc. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. traders are tim seymour, dan nathan, brian kelly and pete najarian. tonight on "fast" one of the hottest trades on the street involves you losing money. hmm. got your attention? we'll explain what that means coming up. plus, crude oil surging 8% today, but one group of stocks is predicting that surge is about to come to a screeching halt. we will tell you what that is and how you can profit. and later forget the vix, the real fear indicator is on fire, gold hitting a three-month high. we'll tell you why a super surge could be right around the corner. but, first, we start off with the markets. a massive reversal for the dow closing 376 points off the lows of the day, but the move was a little schizophrenic. energy leading the way and

high-growth names got nailed today, facebook, amazon, google, starbucks falling hard. what is it about the high growth stocks getting punished? what does this mean for the broader markets, if anything? b.k., what do you say. >> >> for the high growth stocks we know that this has been the quote, up quote crowded trade. look what happened today in multiple markets. a lot of people ask me what happened with the dollar today. one of the big trades out there was to be long european equities and short of euro, but when the dollar started to fall that meant that people had to unwind that trade which then also led to taking risk off in other areas so you started that happening early in the morning. bled over to facebook, amazon, the fang names and people are just getting risk off at this point selling what they can and questioning whether or not that greet is there. >> then you had the turnaround in the banks and that was the sector just yesterday -- i mean, today, still underperforming, but we had a nice reversal midday and yesterday they were tanking. >> yeah. i think the banks' move is a little bit overdone. i think we're in a case where a

banks' earning power is definitely not what it was in a year ago when it was in a place where earnings power was squelched somewhat. we're in a place where high growth names, high multiple names can not exist in this environment at the same multiple when we're questioning every day. may have some differences on the desk but all agree we're in an environment that's somewhat deflationary that the activity of central banks is pushing down asset prices so if you're in a place where equity was trading probably 30%, 40%, 50% above its historical multiple, that's in any sector. even starbucks trading 35 times. this stock historical 25 times multiple, and i love starbucks, i'm long the stock and should it trade at 35, probably not, and probably not in this environment, so i think that's really what's going on today. amazon for sure. netflix for sure, under armour for sure. great companies going lower. >> yeah. you can make the argument it was kind of a healthy, you know, move out of some high-growth stuff that acted really well last year into a bunch of trash, and to me i think there's some risk though when b.k. talked

about crowded trades, what's also a crowded trade is being short energy and short banks and short materials and miners, and look at how those last ones rip, not the banks as much, but to me i think, you know, if you want to buy energy, you know, up 8% because you think there's going to be a supply cut in oil. well, look how that worked out last week. we saw how that works, to me, you know, buying these stocks like this doesn't make a whole heck of a i lot of sense but i don't think you should read too much were star books, facebook, home depot and google being down on the day. >> feels a little chasy. >> does feel that way, yeah. >> when oil popped 8% higher that's when you saw everything sort of unwind and follow through. >> right. >> we saw bank stops turn around and the energy stocks pick up steam. we saw the high growth stocks really take a leg lower. >> right, and there was a little bit of a dash in terms of the material names. if you look at copper today, by the way, copper a 2% move to the upside. i don't think i heard anybody all day on network really talking about copper moving to the upside, silver moving to the upside. obviously we've seen gold as

well starting to have that move to the upside so there are areas of the market that are actually helping pull other areas, and obviously there was a move today where they were taking out soft of the names with the high pes and going for other areas. you look at freeport and something like u.s. steel and look at aa, for instance, that's one of the names where we saw a lot of option paper coming into today. i actually dipped into the options myself because -- >> alcoa options. >> alcoa options. >> what were you doing, buying them, selling them, long, short. >> >> buying the calls because they were going in buying huge upside calls. i felt like, you know what, in the short term like oil, we're in a range, right, somewhere between 29.50, $34. we were at the low end of the range just the -- just yesterday and leer we are moving back up again so as long as we're in that range it's tradeable. >> what are we doing. >> >> here's the fundamental thing you have to ask yourself. if oil is right and the world is as bad as oil thinks it is, then the fang stocks are overpriced. if the fang stocks are correct and things are okay, then the oil stocks are underpriced so you start to see that.

oil going up. you want to be in these resources names. you know, some of the pmis from china last night were actually not terrible. >> are you not as bearish? >> oh, no, no, no, no, no. what's going on here? >> i'm trying to explain what happened today. >> you believe that. >> yeah, yeah. >> what were you doing today? >> in terms of what i did today, what i'm looking to do is get back into long u.s. dollar exposure. i didn't do it today, but the trigger will be when we get the dixie down to about 96, you start to see these trades. they are unwinding now. when that unwinding is done, it's going to be time to buy the u.s. dollar and get out of gold. >> these are levels on the diction we haven't seen on december. >> something said about today's price action. feels like we slumped out of the methadone clinic and went for more heroin, heroin being fed out of picture, weak dollar. >> right. >> anything we need for forestalling, the inevitable is getting off the heroin and taking the methadone and spending time in the clinic and this is where markets are. nice to see markets can rally. you say this is a short rally in

oil. i mean, if the dollar -- doesn't sound like brian thinks it either. i think the dollar is stuck here. i don't think the dollar is going back above 100. i think we're in a place where oil has room to raly. >> past 34 though? >> why not, and i think technically last week when it closed above 32.40 which was the 2008 low technically, look, bear market been theth isn't broken in a day, but the price action we have -- >> buying energy stocks? >> i'll tell you what, added bp that i have and the bp numbers were so bad, it's a place where i don't necessarily care about the dividend. people were betting against their ability to be cash flow positive. at $30 oil it's a problem. the futures curve is starting to change in the oil market and that's something you should follow. >> quick with your trades today. >> to me i think you've got to get back in the backs. if you see j.p. morgan back, we'll talk about european banks later. there's something evil going on and we'll not avoid some kind of contagion. i know they are cheap and less levered than they were but i expect jpmorgan to play catchup. >> so at 60 you would short it?

>> yes. >> i'm thinking about 57.50. >> all right. as dan pointed out, many european banks still traded lower in today's session. in fact, deutsche bank, we haven't seen these levels since before the crisis, well beforehand. ubs, credit suisse have all fallen 20% or more over the past year so that's shaved off a hefty amount of market cap. credit suite has loved $nearly 4 billion, deutsche bank $10 billion. kayla tausche is at the new york stock exchange with more. >> melissa, you pointed out some of the specific stocks but the euro bank stock index 600 is down 23% this year. investors are now asking questions about whether there might be some systemic issues in the banking system. how well are they capitalized? they are obviously not as capitalized as their u.s. counterparts but there are stylish use over whether they have enough capital to cover all these loans that we're starting to find out are going bald whether they are tied to oil, russia, china, you name it. these concerns are definitely

spreading. you saw italy create a bad bank plan to offload some 350 bullon euros to private investment with government backings. you mentioned deutsche bank, rbs, ant both of those companies earnings or warnings, they talked about losses for the full year and including some fines for settlement. normally we would think that we would see this play out in the credit default swaps for these banks if there was suspected to be some type of contagion. we're really not seeing that. yes, if you look at the cds for the bucket of bank stocks in europe year to date, you are seeing a tick up and widen just a couple of points. over the last year they have widened by 65 points which means that it's, of course, more expensive to insure the debt for these bakes. but when you look at five-year chart for these credit default swaps, we're not even at the levels we saw in 2011 during the sovereign debt scare of that year, remember, when fm global went under. still as a fraction of those levels despite the fact we're rising. you mentioned deutsche bank.

that's the one where investors are really concerned. we saw a huge spike again in deutch's five-year cds and on the flip side you're seeing its stock continue to go down. deutsche bank is now trading at a third of its book value which is something that i actually never thought that i would say, and the problem is there aren't really a lot of lights at the end of the tunnel. we have credit suisse reporting earnings tomorrow. we're getting into the thick of bank earnings season. we have more uk banks reporting over the coming weeks, so certainly, melissa, there's not a whole lot to like. more questions to be answered, and even when they get answered there are going to be questions over whether you can trust the information you're going to be given as an investor. >> all right. kayla tausche, thank you very much for that. again, we had raoul pal on and he cited negative interest rates in europe as being the negative driver behind some of his predictions of certain banks, including deutsche bank going to zero. the other layer is citi group had an interesting note on deutsche bank saying if you take a look at china exposure, the picture in china gets worse.

deutsche bank and hsbc are extremely exposed to those markets as well, so whatever pot of problems there exists for deutsche bank right now, that pot could actually be bigger if china gets worse. >> yeah, and, first of all, as kayla pointed out, gold by far is the cheapest systemic bank and it's ironic that the germans tend to be most fiscalically conservative and their bank is the one at the center of the storm. they may have to raise equity but to say this is a case where china will take down european banks or energy loans will take down european banks, i think a lot of this is also who is selling the banks. i think there's very crowded trades. we've talked about sofrl wealth funds and people holding these things very defensively. a lot of people are on the other side of the capital structure and hold debt of these guys and that's a place that's a very interesting place to play. >> this is a really interesting note from jason trennit over at evercore, 56% of the total assets in sovereign wealth funds are oil and sovereign gas wealth

funds. take a look at what they hold, they hold 49.5 is their holdings in financials. i mean, think of the selling pressure just from this area of the market. >> so this -- this is one thing that accelerates the selling. the other part of it, yes, there's china exposure, but just look at glencore, the exposure that the european banks have at glencore, credit suisse and ubs two names i'm short, if they have to take a $1 billion loss from glencore which is their exposure, it's estimated they won't be able to survive under that scenario so you see oil going down, commodities going down, this is going to be a problem for them. the other problem they have is that deutsche bank in particular have sold convertible bonds that are up almost at that trigger point where they will convert into equity which means there's going to be a flood of equity coming on the market. that's why deutch is going long. >> in terms of deutsche bank because they do seem to be the leader of the pack in terms of the declines here, if a big bank like deutsche bank does that, does that then automatically mean the other banks will sell out of fear?

>> that's the problem. i'm not saying brian is doing this, but i think people are looking at them at one asset class. ubs reported two days ago or maybe yesterday and they were down 8%. meanwhile the tier one capital is up 20 bips and made less money from investment banking and wealth management for obvious reasons. not an indication that the bank is falling apart and the capital requirements of european and u.s. banks have changed so dramatically that they are not going to get taken down by the energy sector. we know about the u.s. banks. >> have the european banks been put to the same sort of measures as the u.s. banks and i don't think they have. >> the ones that operate here have been and to the extent they are held under the same microscope of u.s. banks. looking hat my notes. jpmorgan says if oil sails at 30 bucks for 18 months they will need to add $700 million in reserves, big deal. wells fargo 2% of their total loan book, big deal. we're in a case where we're overreacting to the impact. >> the u.s. banks aren't the problem. that's -- i think that's the big thing. u.s. banks will -- will get sick

by association. >> okay. >> but all the fire trucks are right outside the u.s. banks, hoses ready to go. that's not where the problem s.the problem is in the european banks because they operate globally and their banking system is two to three times the size of the gdp. if they get in trouble, they don't have the asset base, the tax base to bail these guys out. they are too big to bail. >> are we overstating though, you mentioned the exposures. likes of a deutsche bank would have to glencore debt. why do we have to write those to zero? do do we assume everything is going to be worthless? why isn't it a percentage that have portfoliole? >> what if this percentage is greater than people expect. >> aren't we pricing in zero right now practically? >> i don't know that you're pricing in zero. >> let's go back to kayla's piece. you saw deutsche bank down 40% the equity over the last six months but the cds isn't even at levels, there's no panic here yet. i think the point is when pal is saying zero he's probably being a little cheeky, okay, but the equity may be worthless under the worst case scenarios. that's not case here in the u.s. banks which is i think what tim

is saying here, so the point is they are undercapitalized the. that's a fact. ioning deutsche bank has raised money since they have doesn't conversions >>the u.s. will leave the book to and brice to book. >> earnings per share and price to book ratios for european gains can get cheaper. doesn't mean they are going out of business. means they are not making much money. >> we've got to move on. >> we've steen go to zero here in america. got to move on. call it the oreo indicator. the maker of oreo and trident gum sounded the alarm in consumer spending and what the ceo had to say that had traders so scored and viacom and cbs have surged on news that sumner redstone has resigned but could a potential deal for those two stocks take longer than investors think? our david faber will be here with the late and havy with a deal for you. lend me a buck and i'll give you 50 cents back. >> sound craze?

>> no, thanks. >> one of the most popular trades on the street right now. we'll tell you why when "fast money" returns. at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like social media equals anti-social. hey guys, i want you to meet my fiancée, denise. hey. good to meet you dennis.

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money." i'm john lipton. gopro reporting and disappointing the action camera-maker swinging to a surprise loss. also a weak guide, both for q1 and the full year. conference call really just beginning to kick off. the ceo trying to address some of the broad concerns here, one, that rivals are coming after gopro. he pointed out that in q4, at least in theu they continued to increase their market share. he also talked about software. remember, for all the talk about gopro hardware, critics argue it's too hard to offload and edit and share all the content. woodman saying they are putting more resources to work to upgrade the software and we will seat benefits of that, he said, starting in the march quarter and also hinted a new gopro camera coming will be the most connected and convenient camera yet. by the way, the company announcing a new cfo who will take over on march 11. i'll hop back on the call and bring you more headlines as they come. melissa, back to you. >> josh lipton, thanks so much. peter najarian, what do you think.

nick woodman has had a number of missteps execution-wise. >> one after another starting in august with the mispricing of that latest sessions camera and dropped it $100 and dropped it again $100. went from 400 to 200 and they just have not been able to recover from that and that's really been their problem. they have to find themselves to get themselves back into the business of what they started out to do which was be very, very creative. if they stopped that, maybe the march quartler start to see some of that, but i would say this is at best a second half story. >> we'll keep you update on the gopro conference call. shares down 10%. the makers of oreo cookies and trident gums falling on an earnings miss. the company's ceo sounding the alarm. consumer both here in the u.s. and overseas earlier today on "squawk alley." take a listen. >> seeing some challenging trends in the macro environment, and we've reflected that in the revenue guidance that we've given. there's no question that we continue to see some challenges in markets like brazil and

russia. we are also continuing to watch the evolution. macro conditions in china, and we're seeing skittish consumers even in our developed markets. >> skittish and people don't want package foods, dan, terrible combination. >> here's the thing, another multi-national telling us that things aren't fantastic. if things turn quickly they have lowered expectations and sentiment has gone the other way enough and you'll have a lot of the stocks rebound. mondelez is a stock trading at 20 times earnings and expected to grow only 12% this year and has a dividend yield less than the ten-year treasury. to me what are you paying for? i don't get it and i would be cautious when you hear a ceo of a company make those sorts of comments in this global macro environment. >> is this an indicator or confirmation of what we already knew? >> i don't think it's either. i think dan is saying the companies are expensive. i think that's totally fair and in this environment they are seeing less growth. less people are munching down oreos in brazil. >> that doesn't disturb you, tim, she made the comment about

developed markets? not high price points, not ipads and iphones and that sort of thing so to me i think for her to make that comment something has had to shift in the last three months. >> i just think, look, first of all, m ho ndelez was spun off because it's the international growth arm of these guys and when it's not growing it doesn't deserve a premium multiple. we're year over year getting into comps where the dollar could be a tailwind at least from a linear perspective. what i mean by that is year over year the dollar will be same or possibly cheaper. doesn't mean demand won't have been impacted but i think companies who have been talking about the dollar being a headwind at some point can point to the fact that dollar is an assistan assistance. >> the more the stock goes down and the more trouble the company has does that play into the hands. activists involved in the stock sides of the world? >> they can point to the stock price going down. i don't think that the stock price going down at this point though is because of poor management. it's because of the macro environment.

now, i don't particularly consider oreos a luxury item. they to me are a staple but maybe i'm different than other people. i'm not sure. >> i'll let that go. moving on. up next, sumner redstone resigning from his post as cbs executive chairman and the stock is moving higher along with viacom which is holding a meeting tomorrow. are these two assets now in play? david faber joins us with a special report next. i'm melissa lee, and you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> it's all there, black and white. you get nothing! you lose! >> but for some reason bond investors don't care. so why are investors clamoring for bonds with negative yields? we have a special report. plus -- >> just when i thought i was out. they pull me back in. >> sums up crude because while oil rallied today, a crucial part of the energy complex collapsed. we'll tell you what it is and what it means for the market

when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of cbs and viacom are surging on news that sumner redstone is stepping down as

chairman of cbs. david faber reports and joins us now. these stocks are trading as if they are both in play. what's in play here? is that the actual reality? >> people may be getting a bit ahead of themselves, melissa, but there's been interesting developments after the bell today. cbs replacing mr. redstone who has been the executive chair. with its ceo leslie moonves and voy come, as we reported, will have a board meeting tomorrow. they have confirmed they are having a board meeting but haven't told us what it's about. what i'm telling you, of course, they will be electing a replacement for mr. redstone as the chairman of viacom as well. also got a statement from sherry redstone, of course, who is sumner redstone's daughter, the vice chair of both cbs and viacom, and in the statement she makes it clear that while sumner redstone's trust indicated thinks intention that she succeed him as chair at cbs and viacom, she's not interested in doing that. in fact, she says her singular

focus is to act as you see there in the best interest of both of these companies and as such she goes on to say that it's her firm belief that whoever may succeed her father as chair of each of those companies should be someone who is not a trustee of my father's trust or otherwise intertwined in redstone family matters, but she says rather a leader with an independent voice. what does that mean? well, if she gets her way at tomorrow's board meeting at voy come it were seem that precludes felipe dem ho n, the ceo of viacom from becoming the trar because he is a trustee in sumner redstone's trust and very much intertwined in those matters being that he's also mr. redstone's health care proxy, so we'll see who in fact is elected as the chair of viacom, but it would seem the possibility is certainly out thereto that it wouldn't be dem ho nd and given sherry redstone's statement, melissa, it won't be here either. whether this all has an impact as you say the bigger picture of

putting these companies into play, so to speak, remains an unknown and perhaps people getting a bit ahead of themselves because as i was saying in the last hour, redstone still is the controlling shareholder through his 80% owner of national amousements which controls both viacom and cbs and that is not changing any time soon. >> all right. the fact though that outside more independent person could become chairman, does that maybe pave the way more for maybe a break-up of viacom or some sort of new structure that could unlock value? >> you know, i don't think so, melissa. i really think those kind of moves, whether you're talking about a break-up or whether you're talking about some sort of consolidation involving viacom and/or cbs, those kinds of things you need the controlling shareholder to sign off. what it does address is a lot of corporate governance issues that have been bubbling up over the last year as mr. redstone's health seems to have deteriorated, perhaps his mental state as well. there have been being shareholders saying, well, why

is he still executive chair of these companies? why are we paying him all of this money which, by the way, was just lowered recently and that's a fair question and why do we have the scenario where felipe dem ho nd is ceo and health care proxy and one of the trust years, of course, as well. they are addressing a corporate governor nan issues that are certainly there, but i think that's more unclear whether strategic, big strategic decisions are going to change as a result of a new chair at cbs and viacom. >> it almost seems like sherry redstone is essentially saying i don't want felipe dem ho nd to be chairman. could this mean that he might be out, that he might want to resign? >> that's a good question. he's come under a great deal of fire from share hold errs, is you ay know, given the underperformance of viacom stock, down 21% over the last three years, not to mention his pay which he's made over $300 million in cash and stock over the last five years. and they have not had a good run

of things at viacom given, you know, moves they made in terms of children's programming that they actually did a deal with netflix a number of years ago that seemed to have at least weakened them overall and a key franchise, not to mention just a number of other franchises that are not what they once were, melissa, and advertising dollars, on ratings, certainly have come down as have the stock price. so -- and the lack of a transition really to digital in a meaningful way so there's certainly plenty of people who say that. i think shari redstone may be amongst them and felipe demond and sumner redstone are very, very close. >> all right, david, thank you so much. david faber on the story. >> sure. >> all right. what's our trade here? we're seeing a pop here in the after hours session, whether it's valid or not. >> i think that was expected, and we've seen this an every time we've had a headline, had a headline of change, that's great. gets back to, first of all, issued that confronted this

company. david talked about some of the missteps and also the structure and some of the stuff they are fighting with. i think this gets back to valuation though, and these are both companies that trade cheap to peers and while there's been a reason for that i think there may be reason for them to close the gap. >> up 9%. where are we in the after hours? absolutely nothing that you chase here. this whole thing is a soap the are a and you watch soap the race, don't trade them. >> do you watch soap race? >> very often when i'm eating oreos. kind of my afternoons. >> i think we talk about valuation. tim addressed it, you addressed it on the move on 2%. probably don't chase it but i still think this is very inexpensive when you look at the sector and there's probably something good to come, not immediately but sometime in the not too distant future viacom -- >> starting to stir up change. >> absolutely. >> so, you know, we've gotten through earnings and earnings as a whole, probably, you know, maybe two-thirds through or something like that. haven't gotten to the media sector. we're talking about cbs and viacom here and next week we'll

get disney and time warner and, you know, one of the things that's interesting, when the market is still acting well in early august, it was disney and time warner and the whole sector that krarted first. to me i think you have a setup that you'll be able to buy all. stocks lower because i think the stuff that started in august that bob eiger told us about over the top and all the bundles, i think it will be a multi-quarter thing and i think you'll get a chance to buy most of them. time warner is on my list and if you get disney with an 8 handle around 85, that's where we want to step. >> >> tune into the halftime report tomorrow at 12:00 noon for an exclusive interview with viacom's shareholder on viacom's board meeting and changes. still ahead, big oil, big pain, but is there still value in some of the hardest hit names in space? the top analyst weighs in on his best bets and the countdown to super bowl sunday is on. just how much bigger can the nfl get? and should apple or google buy the rights to nfl games? the chairman and ceo of the kansas city chiefs will weigh n."fast money" returns right after this.

so pete, you're taking denver and the points? >> yeah, that's very funny. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money." other owes what's coming up in the second half of the show. oil seeing a major rally jumping about 9%, about you there's one part of the energy sector that took a major leg down, and that could spell trouble. we'll explain next. peyton manning and cam newton facing off this weekend as the super bowl celebrates its 50th year, but as the media landscape changes, what's the future of the nfl? the chairman. kansas city chiefs, one of the first teams to play in a super bowl, joining us us later. but, first, from government bonds to blue chips the market for investments that offer negative yield, that is to say investments where you're almost guaranteed to lose money, that has quickly grown no more than $5 trillion. what's behind this and could less be more in this crazy world? seema mody has the details back at headquarters. seema. >> what's even more crazy is less than two years ago negative yielding bonds didn't even exist and now according to the jpmorgan global bond index it is a nearly $5.5 trillion market

with countries like germany, netherlands, switzerland and japan expanding the pool of short and long dated bonds with yields below zero but it's not limited to countries. corporate debt of blue chips like nestle, royal dutch shell trade in negative territory as well. what's the rationale behind paying for privilege of lending money to a company or country. a couple of reasons, a bet on a currency will appreciate by the time the bond matures. second, it's the expect nation there will be ongoing demand from central banks that will continue to drive yields deep near negative territory and third it's just the flight to safety as hedge fund investor mark lazare said today the only thing everyone cares about is safety. everyone is worried about not losing money and being safe and negative yields don't make sense to lazare saying, quote, nobody gives us money to lose money. it's better to say in cash. this is why this is such a hot topic to debate, whether it's a god place to park your cash.

>> seema mody, that just seems nuts. >> it's not a good place to park your cash. >> exactly why equity markets have a floor under them, exactly why people -- earnings yield have to be in equities and in companies with good balance sheets paying good dividends. for people who think the equity market has gone down 25%, this will hold it together and so ultimately it's going to get back to valuation, back to stocks that are correctly -- >> i'm not sure if i buy that. these yields are negative because things are so bad in the world that central banks have to pump money into the system. that's not an environment that equities are going to hold up under. >> why? >> because -- because the economy -- we just heard from mondelez, the global economy is slowing down. >> companies are corrected because they don't deserve the valuations they might have had last year when the central banks were flushing the world with capital. >> stocks are correcting because companies have -- there's no earnings growth other than the manufacturing earnings growth that's the result of the low interest rates which puts risk assets up. >> wouldn't i rather own

companies that i think are proven companies, coca-cola and verizon, attila, some of the companies that to me are still delivering fantastic earnings, at least in the context of what other people are doing on a relative basis. people should be picking stocks here, not selling the market cap. >> as long has they are following the rules of discipline and saying are they actually able to earn. are they -- >> can they pay that dividend? >> and the dividend and probably what people are looking hat the most. what today's trade was all about. why was the dow up as much as it was, because the dow stocks pay the dividends because when you look at the dow versus how that react versus the s&p 500, significant difference, and that significant difference is because they pay those dividends and people are looking at those companies. >> tim, i take issue with your comment. i just mentioned coke. coke has not grown earnings more than 2%. >> you know what, and i may, you know -- >> i think coke specific, i'm

not just naming it -- >> you're talking about as an alternative to cash you're saying buy coke, great balance sheet and 3% dividend yield and a whole heck of a lot of approximate. that's just a fact. they manufactured earnings growth. earnings would have been declining by mid-single digits over the last few years. >> everybody knows coca-cola has been going sideways and has been struggling and in transition. >> i know. >> and carbonated software business going sideways and buying other businesses. that's the price. >> to his point, seven years of zero interest rates and you're talking about the negative interest rates are not going to be an environment that's going to be a real strong economic environment. >> i think there are major major institutions around the world that have to have yield in the equity market, good companies, good balance sheets, not running for the hills and do like companies with dividend yields. >> are funds that need nobody fully invested. >> plenty of funds that need to be invested in 2008 though, i mean, the stock market still went down. >> okay. oil seeing a major real, up more than 19%. could there be hidden value in oil stock snlt top analysts thinks so and gives us his best

plays later this hour and one retail stock getting crushed today and the bulls running into it. we'll explain why traders are betting this name is in for a major rebound right after the break.

welcome back to "fast money." take a look at the refiners getting whacked in today's session buck the trend of the broader markets so could the refiners be the next leg to drop in energy? the head of energy research and managing director joins us here on set and ranked the top analyst on the street by institutional investor. doug, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> paying ahead for the refiners. >> refiners are great companies. kind of been the exemplary managers of capital over the last couple of years, the best companies in my sector, the whole industry. after having said that, i think this giant glut of crude oil has been converted to a fairly meaningful man of surplus and refined products so inventories adjusted for demand at pretty high levels and if you take that and back that into the refiners the estimates may be too high. with inventories high in the past, no big deal, we'd export

it and with global demand weak or weaker than it has been that might be an option. >> what is the rotation within your sector? i mean, if they were once the best and now no longer. >> yeah. >> where's the money -- where should that go? >> yeah. >> so we actually think that the big oils, that the safe havens, the super majors, exxon, chevron, bp are the places to be and you might say gosh, you're putting it to sleep. if you think about it, not too enthusiastic about the market this year, companies with big dividend yields between 2% and 8% and think the dividend yields are safe and we also think that with oil prices as low as it is, it's a great opportunity for these companies to strategically conform themselves through consolidati consolidation, a great opportunity and one we haven't seen for 15 or 20 years to transform themselves through consolidation and if the market doesn't do so great and the stocks have, you know, really big dividend yields this year from 5% to 8% might be a good place to be. >> can we say as safe as one can be in the markets that the days

of down 25% in a year or so are over? i mean, a 3% dividend yield is fantastic. >> yeah. >> but if you're going to contend with a declining energy price that's not going to give you much solace. >> i think these companies, if you look at their valuations, i mean, they real reat 20 and 30-year lows on price book and dividend yield. that's real important for those companies. there's a lot of bad news in these companies and stocks. we don't think that the dividends will be cut and if we're right and the price of oil gradually recovers to the end of this year the stock will end up doing well from the total perspective and will do great in the market. >> thanks for coming back. >> tim, actually got in on bp you mentioned earlier today, out of the refiners. >> first of all, talked also about some technical elements of trades. i mean, refine remembers a very crowded trade. the only place you can make money and still be defensive and be in the sector. the demand for product is also slowing down. that's also some part -- everybody says it's all about supply. at a place where demand is not

keeping up and even possibly slowing down. bp, the question about dividend is key because they have lost the dividend before and it's easier for them. >> that's true. i like what doug is talking about the specific names you pick out there because i think you left out conoco phillips and look at somebody with negative cash flow i think that dividend is in jeopardy and look at what exxon has done, cut the cap "x" and are getting themselves prepared. took away the repurchase program and for now seems like they are setting up something. >> you're long exxon? >> i'm not. >> you're in the. >> i wish i was because of the names how the think think that's the best. >> exxon is kind of interesting, right, because let's just say all. dividends aren't safe in the other areas. exxon's most likely probably the last one to cut it in it's going to happen so you'll have this effect of people rotating into exxon, so there is some kind of support there for that so if you have to be in any sector and you want to get some yield exxon might be the place to be. >> let's move on here and you guys out there might be asking

where's dan? right? empty seat here. he's at the smart board breaking down a big bullish bet in loews. dan, what did you see it? >> today lowe's was creamed. they made an acquisition of a retailner canada and investors obviously didn't like it an options action and average daily volume, 80% of that was in calls and when the stock was 66.15 a buyer of the march 6750 paying $110 for that, $1.1 million premium on 10,000 contracts and they can-maker up to $1.40 or 1.4 million, and what's interesting about this trade it's a very tight call spread. the max payout is at 70, not far from where the stock was trading at 66.75, and when you go and just look at the one-day -- the one-year chart here, the stock found some support at the august low, this is where the trade was

most profitable at $70 here and so what's interesting about the relationship of the trade, risking $1.10 to make 1.40 very near the money. this could be a leverage trade for somebody already long the stock and thinks that's coming back very quickly and will look to move out of it and want to make one last point. the some is consolidating here and if it can hold at the 67 level, it's probably good into the report in two weeks. >> check out the full show "options action" at 5:30 p.m. eastern time friday. days away from super bowl sunday. the number of people tuning in has grown more than 120% since the very first super bowl. how much pigger can the nfl get in the chairman of the kansas city chiefs weighs in right after the break. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data

you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. won't keep you up at night.n know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. know that planning for retirement can be the least of your worries. with the guidance of a pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future you've always wanted.

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welcome back to "fast money." the countdown is on to super bowl 50, but, first, let take a step back to 1967 when the chiefs and packers squared off in the very first super bowl. it was simulcast on cbs and nbc. it drew a collected 51 million

viewerses viewers. now this year the big game is expected to draw over 115 million viewers. so how much bigger can the big game get? and should the nfl team up with a pure digital partner? joining us to discuss from dallas is kansas city chiefs chairman and ceo clark hunt. clark, great to have you with us. >> thank you, melissa. great to be on with you guys. >> got an exciting few days leading up to the super bowl. i'm wond in terms of how you view how the nfl will grow, how soon do you think before we see an apple or a google start getting rights to games, for instance. >> well, it's certainly something that could happen in the near future. the league this year took a couple of steps to test broadcasting games from the digital standpoint. the first being the jaguars/bills game that was played in london this year. yahoo carried that game stream, it was an extremely successful. i believe they had 15 million unique users, and then the playoffs this year in addition to being broadcast, think were

also shown on a digital basis over the top, so it's something that's very much in the future. this year's super bowl will also be available from a digital standpoint in addition to being broadcast on cbs. >> hey, clark, i have a quick question for you. you guys have moved some of the games this year, more games towards those thursday nights. do you find that to be beneficial financially and how much so for the nfl? >> well, the league a number of years ago created the thursday night package, and i know it's something that our fans really appreciate being able to watch nfl games on thursday night. it certainly has also been beneficial from a financial standpoint. here in the last week the league announced that they had extended their deal with cbs and also added cnbc to the thursday night broadcast, both networks will carry about five games and then all the games will also be available on the nfl network as well. >> when you think out about the future, clark, and -- and the digital path for the nfl as the ceo of the chiefs, what scenario

do you think would be best for you, for owners if an apple came out and streamed these games, amazon? i mean in, your dreams, what would the combination be? >> well, our fans are evolving and they want to sample and watch nfl football on different streams. the over there model has been very successful for the nfl. i think it's one of the things that has helped the league be as popular as it is on a broad basis, but our fans want to be able to watch the games where they are and when they are, and certainly having an apple or a google or a yahoo involved to -- to stream the games would make that possible. >> all right. last question, clark. got to the ask it. who is your pick for the winner of super bowl 50? >> well, it's going to be a tremendous game. you've got a tremendous story line with the two quarterbacks. our family, given our involvement back to it the early days of the american football league, we always cheer for the afc team so i'm going to go with our division rival, the denver

broncos. >> all right. clark, it will be a great game. enjoy it. thank you very much for joining us. clark hunt, the chairman and ceo of the kansas city chiefs. what's your pick? >> carolina. riverboat ron, going to do it. >> all right. coming up next, the traders tell you what they are watching for tomorrow right after the break. stay tuned.

e*trade is all about seizing opportunity. so i'm going to take this opportunity to go off script. so if i wanna go to jersey and check out shotsy tuccerelli's portfolio, what's it to you? or i'm a scottish mason whose assets are made of stone like me heart. papa! you're no son of mine! or perhaps it's time to seize the day. don't just see opportunity, seize it! (applause) how is this for a super lineup? intel and fitbit, ceos who get a read on the future of their buses and the global economy.

plus, go inside today's big turn on wall street. "mad money" is next. and finally, fast but not least, uber got a makeover after changing its logo and branding before the company had a stylized black "u" and now they are calling it the bits and atoms, i don't know what that is, uber users are taking to twitter to voice their complain. >> dear uber, your old logo was very bad but useful and your new logo is very bad and useless. yours trully. everyone. which got it changing we should change our logo. check this out, big unveil. look at that silhouette. >> which redesign is better, uber or "fast" and tweet us and let us know. >> uber. >> i don't know. >> final trade here. >> i believe that might be melissa. therefore, it's beautiful, bhp in this environment. >> dan? >> bank of america, short entry. >> b.k.? >> philip morris, good dividend

looking to break how the. >> about pete? >> a little more to the upside, giddy-up. >> i'm melissa lee. see you back here at 5:00 for more "fast" and meantime "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. ♪ hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica from san francisco. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job isn't just to entertain but to put it in context and educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc.