good morning. working for a living. the global markets in wait-and-see mode right now, counting down to today's big u.s. jobs report. >> and happening now, linkedin shares getting slammed. why is the online networking site telling wall street it got the story wrong? and the gloves are coming off in new hampshire. the showdown between hillary clinton and bernie sanders last night. it's friday, february 5th, 2016, and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. i'm sara eisen.

>> and i'm dominic chu sitting in for wilfred frost. he'll be back on monday. a lot of news this morning and some big stock moves as well. we'll have your round up of the names you'll want to know in a minute. >> first, the big market story of the day. that would be january's employment report. it's out today at 8:30 a.m. eastern. forecasters say the economy likely added 185,000 jobs last month during january. that's a big drop from what we saw in december, 292,000 jobs added that month. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5%. of course, we'll bring it to you live on cnbc. in the meantime ahead of that report at 8:30, u.s. equity futures are holding steady. it's been a calm session overnight after a mixed session in asia. dow jones futures up 30. s&p futures up 2.9. it's really little action ahead of jobs. this after a lumpy rally that led industrials and materials on the back of strong commodities and again a weaker dollar, heading for its worst week since

2009. >> not surprising to see markets a little stable ahead of what could be a big market-moving number. let's talk about the fed speak ahead of today's report. cleveland fed president telling a conference late yesterday that the u.s. economy remains sound and will overcome recent market turbulence. the policymaker suggesting this will allow the fed to continue tightening interest rates as planned. mester is a voting member of the fomc policy committee. >> which setting it up potentially for a dissent if they decide to hold pat in march and not raise interest rates. >> and futures are already indicating we're not going to see one. >> nothing in the bond market. that's why today's jobs report is so important. if you're just waking up, let's bring you up to speed on the asian session overnight. the nikkei in japan closed lower for a fifth tragt day. the big driver, a stronger yen. the exporters in japan do not like to see that. it's completely given back all of its declines from where the boj took interest rating negative a week ago. in china, the shanghai composite

closing marginally lower on final trading day ahead of the lunar new year. they will be celebrating the year of the monkey. starting monday, the markets are closed. >> well, if you look at that, just look at all of the monkeys. it's supposed to be -- i mean, they're mercurial. i'm told in terms of the zodiac, the monkey is a mercurial sign. could be good for those people out there who are, you know, maybe a little more prone towards having a little bit of fun. >> monkeys bring luck? >> it could be a lucky year for the markets. we'll see what happens. let's check on the early european session. let's move to asia. new data this morning showing that german factory orders are falling more than expected in december. among the big stock movers in

europe today as well, let's take a look at those. bnp paribas posting a 52% drop in fourth quarter net profits due to a big writedown on its italian bank. also, plans to cut costs in its investment banking division. we're going to hear from bnp cfo later on this hour. another stock to watch here, arcelormittal under pressure today amid falling steel prices. the company launching a 3 billion capital increase. green across the screen for the most part. it's a little mixed. still, a couple big stocks to watch on the global front. >> let's show you what's going on with broader market moves. u.s. dollar really took center stage on the weakness. it's helped commodities across the board this week. it's helped stocks too. the euro is pretty much flat into the jobs report. still, charging toward 1.12. we're looking at levels we haven't seen in about a year. we're actually back to october levels right now.

we'll keep an eye on that. the dollar is strengthening against the japanese yen on a good jobs report. usually you see that pair move the most. strong dollar, weaker japanese yen. let's show you what's happening in the oil market, where crude oil is actually heading for a weekly loss. it is green right now. we'll see if that can stick. 32.12. wti crude up about 1.3%. brent, the international benchmark, up almost a percent. green for natural gas as well. treasuries ahead of the jobs report. >> this is amazing, by the way. look at the yield on ten years. >> way below. it shows you the gloom and doom. there's negative rates in some parts of the world. an increasing number of parts of the world. for the u.s., this is super low as well at 1.85. and gold has made a big move higher this week. it's at the high etest level in months. what does that mean? is it a signal the federal reserve is not going to raise

interest rates? it's also been the opposite trade of the dollar. gold strong, dollar weak. copper has gotten a nice boost as well. >> they are linked. they're all priced in dollars. certainly one to watch there. speaking of the stocks to watch today, shares of linkedin plunging in the after-hours session. the networking site giving weak fourth quarter guidance. that overshadowed a beat on both the top and bottom lines. you can see there for linkedin, those shares down by nearly 30% in extended hours trading. it's going to be a rough start to the day. similar story for tableau software. they topped earnings and sales estimates, but license revenue growth slowed down. on top of that, the company revealing it probably won't realize the benefit of certain tax assets. the shares there plunging by 36%. a huge move. the private equity arm of silver lake is making a half billion dollar investment in cybersecurity. symantec announcing plans to buy

back more shares, and is unveiled a special $4 dividend per share. those shares up by 9%. >> other stocks for you to watch this morning. revenue at news corp. declining for the fourth quarter. the stronger dollar and shrinking revenue weighed on the "wall street journal" owner. lion gate entertainment posting earnings and revenue that missed consensus. the movie studio also is back in talks to merge with the cable movie channel starz. shares under pressure, heavily being punished for those weak results. shares of outerwall sliding after issuing a weak outlook. rentals decline sharply. so is the stock. down 16%. >> the company formerly known as coinstar. anyway, in other corporate news, apple is considering bringing its software services to android. the report citing comments tim cook made to apple employees at a company-wide town hall meeting. he is said to have mentioned apple music on android as a way

for the company to test its services on non-apple made hardware. other options in the future might include services like i-cloud and apple pay. >> and in other tech news, foxconn ceo meeting with sharp executives in japan today. in comments just hitting the wires in the last hour or so, the chairman saying that the company has cleared 90% of the hurdles when it comes to reaching an agreement with sharp. he says a final announcement will be made by the end of the month. >> a lot of corporate news out there as well. coming up, it's jobs friday. one might call it our market super bowl. we're going to talk expectations. >> we got a monthly super bowl here. >> absolutely. >> plus, we want to hear from you on the actual super bowl. our twitter question of the day, should the monday after the super bowl sunday be a national holiday? i am surprised at how many votes are coming in no. tweet us @cnbcwex.

we'll share the results. dom has a must-read this morning arguing point by point for why it should be. we'll be right back on "worldwide exchange." we were born 100 years ago into a new american century. born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together. ♪ you gein your car. odors you think it smells fine, but your passengers smell this. {ding} eliminate odors you've gone nose blind too, for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip. wow, it smells good in here. so you and your passengers can breathe happy.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." if you're just waking up or getting into work, let's get you up to speed. let's start in asia. a very mixed picture overall. a couple of places you'll want to focus on here, japan's nikkei index down 225 points.

the losing streak continues over in japan. and then a mixed picture here for china. the hang seng in hong kong up by about half a percent. the shanghai composite down by about one half of one percent as well. let's look at these other markets. wti crude, the u.s. benchmark, up by about 1.3%. ice brent crude, the world benchmark for oil, up by about 1%, $34.77. of course, that's leading up to the u.s. markets overall. weaver seeing some green ahead of that big jobs number. dow jones futures up by 39 pointinpoin poin points. all fractional gains ahead of that big jobs number. >> the chinese markets will be closed next week for the chinese

lunar holiday. >> reporter: china is a society on the move. at no time is that more true than during lunar new year. every year hundreds of millions of chinese hop on trains, planes, and buses to return home for the holidays in the largest migration of people on the planet. this holiday doesn't officially begin until february 8th, but already in the year of the monkey, millions of migrant workers have gone home because of the slowing economy. migrants like these women say they can no longer afford to live in a big city like beijing. both lost their jobs working at a restaurant when it ran into financial problems last september. they're waiting to receive their unpaid salary of about $1,000 each before heading back home. we have no money to buy tickets, to buy gifts for our family or children. normally we spend $650 every

lunar new year, she says. i am not coming back. they're far from alone. many migrants are considering finding a new life in the countryside, fearing jobs won't be available to them if they return to the big cities. for years, migrant workers have been the backbone of china's economic growth, working in factories and constructing buildings. but in 2015, the migrant population fell by 5.7 million. its first drop in about three decades. but with the economy growing at its weakest rate in a quarter of a century, many workers are questioning their future, whether they're in traditionally powerful industries, like manufacturing, or even new industries that depend on chinese consumers. it's not easy to get a job in the restaurant industry, these days, she says. when i first came to beijing ten years ago, i was excited with new hope. i thought i could do well in a big city. but now i'm so sad and

disappointed. disappointed that her chinese dreaming disappear and the unpredictable year of the monkey. cnbc, beijing. >> and i did look it up, dom. year of the monkey lucky numbers, four and nine. >> nine is my lucky number. i like the number nine. >> you were born in 1980. you're year of the monkey apparently. multiples of 12. >> once again to the early market action in europe. we're talking about the big banks. nancy hulgrave joins us from london with highlights of her conversation with the bnp ceo. >> good morning. finally some good news. the sector overall second to best performer. as you just said, part of that is due to good news we're getting out of bnp paribas. they have unveiled a restructuring for its investment banking unit. this is intended to answer some

claims the bank has been too slow to attack the leverage problems they've been seeing and to address the market volatility. i had a chance to talk to bnp paribas cfo yesterday. he struck a confident tone that these changes would help prepare the bank going forward for volatility. nevertheless, as you know, european banks have been particularly hard hit going into the new year. he attributed a lot of that to what he said were unfounded fears around china. take a listen. >> from where we see it is that there is no such thing as a hard landing, which is under way, and so i would say probably it's a good moment to buy bank stock. >> so the cfo there, no surprise here, really talking up his bank's stock. for now, investors are believing it. the stock up about 5%. he was shrugging off fears not only around china, but more strategically here saying he's comfortable with the level of loan exposure to the energy

sector. of course, another big fear surrounding the european banks here. guys, back to you. >> nancy, thank you so much. banks a focus on both sides of the atlantic. back on the u.s. shores, it's all about jobs today. the january employment report due at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. so joining us now to break it all down, jim o'sullivan, chief u.s. economist at high frequency economics. jim, thank you so much for joining us this early in the morning. let's talk about the jobs picture. is it as rosy as the numbers make it out to be? >> hi, dom. hi sara. good morning. certainly not as good as the fourth quarter numbers. if you step back a little bit and look at all of last year, the first nine months of last year, payroll gains averaged 200,000 a month, which is pretty good. the fourth quarter averaged 284,000 a month, which is really off the chart. i think we're probably due for a weaker number here. frankly, we could get a zero today, and the four-month average is still around 200,000. my guess is the trend is still solid, close to 200,000. the last couple months were clearly exaggerated. i think unfortunately because of

that, we may be due for a weak number today. >> are you expecting to see any improvement in the missing link, and that would be wage growth, jim? >> well, of course i think the monthly number will be strong today. i've got plus 0.4% on the monthly number. last month was actually on the weaker side. it was zero. i think you're due for some bay p -- payback. i think you're due for a strong month over month number. the change from a year ago is 2.5%, which is actually the highest we've seen. that number probably goes down because you're dropping out a strong number from a year ago. if you smooth it out, i think there's been a little acceleration here. of course, if employment continues to grow around 200,000 a month, notwithstanding what happens today, then i think unemployment keeps falling and you do see more signs of wage

pressure. >> all right. so all of this is of course in the context of how the fed and other central banks view this kind of economic data. so if we do get a jobs number that stays on your projections, are we going to see a fed rate hike any time in the next few months? >> well, i think the risk today is we get a weak number. i think the trend is probably still around 200,000. my forecast for today is 165. frankly, i wouldn't be surprised at even weaker than that. if you average out the last three or four months, it's still going to look good. i think the risk is this number will be on the weaker side. it'll probably play into fears in the markets right now that the economy is slowing. obviously a lot of jitters in the markets generally. some of the numbers recently have slowed. i think a lot of the january numbers could be weak. i think even the snowstorm will have effects on things like retail sales. given what the fed said last week, chances are they're on hold. if the economy continues to chug along pretty well here and ultimately the trend is solid, they'll be tightening again. my own forecast is they're pausing here for a few months, but they'll be tightening again

by june. >> that seems to jive with what's happening with the overall markets as well in terms of head fund futures. jim o'sullivan, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> and now it's time for today's trade on jobs ahead of that report. our data team crunched some numbers to find out which stocks do well when the jobs report actually beats consensus. charles schwab, monster, general motors, and e-trade all performed well when the jobbings report came in better than expected. for more, go to cnbc.com and check out more. the big question is how the market is going to react to the number. are we in a situation where -- >> it seems perverse. >> bad news is bad news because our economy just isn't getting there. >> or is bad news good news. >> all i can say is this a depressed market. good news on earnings hasn't been taken that way. >> absolutely right.

coming up, let's talk about decision 2016. we're now just four days away from the new hampshire primary, sara. bernie sanders and hillary clinton squared off in the granite state last night. clinton hitting back over wall street ties. the highlights of that debate straight ahead.

now to decision 2016. the democrats are campaigning in new hampshire again today after their first one-on-one debate last night. hillary clinton's way behind in the polls, but she came out swinging. nbc's tracie potts joins with us the highlights and of course bernie sanders can kind of view new hampshire as maybe his home turf, right, tracie? >> reporter: well, yeah, it's his backyard. he's from next door in vermont. although, he had some time last night explaining why so many lawmakers in vermont were not supporting him. as for hillary clinton, she clearly went into this trying to prove, number one, that she's the true progressive here. that's something that sanders has been leveling at her. but also, that she's not being influenced by the big banks. >> and enough is enough.

if you've got something to say, say it directly. >> reporter: hillary clinton pushing back on the idea that she can't be tough on wall street because she's taken so much money from them. >> you will not find that i ever changed a view or a vote because of any donation that i ever received. >> what we need to do is to stand up to the big money interests. i am very proud to be the only candidate up here who does not have a super pac, who's not raising huge sums of money. >> reporter: they debated paying for campaigns and paying for free college and free health care. >> i do not accept the belief that the united states of america can't do that. >> the numbers just don't add up from what senator sanders has been proposing. >> reporter: on foreign policy, the democrats disagreed on how quickly to normalize relations with iran. >> you don't just rush in, open the door, and say here, i am, let's talk and make a deal. >> those are exactly the people you have to talk to, and you have to negotiate with. >> reporter: united in principle

but drawing distinctions on how to get things done. and this isn't the last time you're going to see them one on one. they have several more debates coming up. the next one is thursday in wisconsin. >> so tracie, the interesting part about this whole discussion is the idea that you can have such a big disparity from one state to the other. how does this set up? new hampshire is just a few days away here. what kind of momentum can one expect to get if they win here into the next set of primaries and debates? >> reporter: well, the next big one will be south carolina. look, no question about it, new hampshire is important. so is iowa. but the background of these two states and the voters and what people are looking at, they're very, very different. new hampshire is key. you were talking about the disparity. here you have iowa, where hillary clinton won, although she barely won. in new hampshire, she's 20 points behind. so she had to come out swinging last night. >> do you have an update, tracie, on the state of the republican race as we get into the new hampshire primary? i know there's a new poll result out, and everybody is wondering whether donald trump can

recapture some momentum lost in iowa. >> we've got another one coming out later today. the latest polls we've seen have donald trump out ahead by a healthy margin, double-digit margins. and then some back and forth in the polls on whether marco rubio or ted cruz is the number two there. they are very close, within a couple percentage points. some of the later polls show that marco rubio is actually surging at this point into a number two spot. but definitely ted cruz is looking forward and looking behind him. >> tracie potts, thank you so much. nbc news on the political landscape as we head towards the new hampshire primaries. now from politics to sports. we go to the pga waste managements open in phoenix, arizona. check this out. eldrick the robot golfer making history, hitting a hole in one. the name stands for launch directional robot intelligent circuitry. the robot is owned by former pro

golfer gary mccord. in the spirit of full disclos e disclosure, this was his fifth attempt at the shot, but it's still a hole in one by a robot. an interesting note here, sara -- >> do you feel threatened by this? >> i'm not threatened a the all. i've had two hole in ones in my life, by the way. while spelled differently, the name also happens to be the birth name of pro golfer tiger woods. >> did not even know that. well, everyone is getting ready for the super bowl on sunday, including jimmy fallon. "the tonight show" host using a parade of puppies to predict the winner of the big game. the pupping picked between bowls of food marked panthers, which is how they got down the line, and broncos. whichever bowl got the most puppies would be the winning team. the little guys flocked to the denver broncos. >> interesting. >> predicting peyton manning and his team will be victorious this sunday. apparently they have a good track record. >> they picked the kentucky derby winner. i would say sara and i are both dog feel. i always wonder why they use

either labrador or golden retriever puppies for all these things. they're the most to to jennic apparently. >> they do appeal. most mainstream. we have the same kind of dog. >> yes, we do. anyway, time to slip in a quick break. this morning's top stories when we come back. >> plus, much more on the big weekend in san francisco. landon dowdy will join us with a look at the major money behind the game. landon? >> that's right. get ready for some football. as a journalist, i pride myself on being completely unbiased, even when it comes to reporting on the big game. more on that coming up. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

global markets on edge. we're waiting for today's big jobs report. let the countdown begin. >> toyota launching a major share buyback, but the big question, how much is the stronger yen hitting the automaker's bottom line? >> and we're ready for some football. the big money behind the big game straight ahead. it's jobs friday, february 5th, 2016. you're watching world world "woe exchange" on cnbc. >> i got to get up to speed on some of this new music. >> new music friday. get with the program. >> welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm dominic chu sitting in for wilfred frost. he'll be back on monday. >> and i'm sara eisen. the january jobs report due out at 8:30 a.m.

>> likely added 185,000 jobs last month. that's a big drop from the 292,000 december payrolls number we got. the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 5%. now, also, it's not the only game in town. today's market agenda, a read on the international trade picture at 8:30 a.m. eastern time as well. the baker hughes rig count is set for release at 1:00 p.m. eastern today, like it is every friday. later in the day, the monthly consumer credit report is out. on the earnings side of things, on earnings central, cme group, also estee lauder set to report. >> let's give you a setup of the global markets. stock futures pointing to a modestly higher open. dow futures up 28. nasdaq up three. it could all change after the jobs report coming out at 8:30 before the opening bell. we did manage to eke out some gains yesterday, but it was a lumpy rally, driven mostly by materials and industrial stocks. let's show you the early action

in europe, where there's some green on the screen as well. banks are getting a bit of a boost from bnp paribas restructuring. that's helped european stocks climb back from what has been a pretty weak week overall. asia, mixed picture. japan got hit again by the stronger yen. the dollar has been weakening. it's having its worst week since back in 2009. that strong yen is hurting the japanese exporters. the shanghai composite closing down 0.6 pv%. it's a little less than the moves we've been seeing. >> for sure. that's the stock market picture. as for the broader market overall, check out what's happening on the commodities side of things. with oil, you can see across the board some green.

natural gas up 5% as well. now, on interest rates, interesting move here. ten-year notes, we highlighted it earlier in the show. we have about a 1.85% yield on ten-year have issue ri notes. it's significant because it's lower. that means people bought up treasuries ahead of today's jobs number. we'll see if that plays out as we head towards that big release at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. on the currency side of things, if you look overall at what's happening, we see moves here. again, euro higher almost 1.12. the dollar-yen, 1.1685. just fractionally higher. gold prices, quick check on what's going on there. for gold, we are seeing a very nice week for gold. it's up about $1.50 right now. fractionally higher in what's been a strong up trend for gold

prices. >> it's all about the federal reserve right now and whether we see a weak jobs report, that would add to confirmation that the u.s. economy is slowing. it hit a soft patch last quarter, and it might be a long time before we see it come back. then they won't have to raise interest rating. >> we've been focused so much on mario draghi and the ecb, then kuroda, the boj. it's about fed policy. certainly a huge focus for a lot of traders. >> we have some corporate news for you to watch today. genworth financial will stop selling traditional life and fixed annuities as part of its cost-cutting efforts. deckers outdoor reporting lower than expected earnings and plans to slash costs. it lowered its guidance for the current quarter. state street nearing a deal to acquire general electric's asset management business. >> big stories there. here's another one to watch as well. toyota reporting a 5% fall in operating profits last quarter.

that missed the mark for an i analysts. shares down by about 1% in trading. >> well, besides the jobs report, there's sure to be one big thing everyone is talking about at the office today. that would be football. millions will tune in to see super bowl 50. the biggest rivalry may be between companies. landon dowdy joining us with more on the money story in costume today. >> hey, sara. that's right. good morning. it is the one day a year viewers actually tune in to watch the commercials, and that's what marketers are betting on. the stakes are high. 114 million people tuned in last year, and this year, a 30-second ad costs a whopping $5 million. that's up 11% from last year. so who are the big spenders? toyota, 90 seconds worth.

a few other names with top spots during the big game. 2015 was dubbed a more somber bowl. this year is more upbeat. the celeb bowl. you'll see at least 33 stars, up from 28 last year. christopher walken, seth rogen, and lil' wayne to name a few. what do you think, front or the back? >> let's see you fully turn here. >> this is like a runway. it's a fashion show right now. >> how did you do this? who makes it? nike or under armour? >> actually, cam newton is sponsored by under armour, but nike is making the official super bowl jerseys. this was specially made by one of our producers, mary duffy. thank you very much. >> well down. >> you can't find them on the east coast because of the storm. they were all shipped to california. >> but we know who you're really rooting for. >> you didn't say, front or back? >> we know -- i mean, we know

you're from, like, north carolina, right? isn't this the idea here, that you should be rooting for the panthers? >> i won't be turning around a lot today. >> landon dowdy, thank you. >> thanks, guys. >> love the jersey. we have an update to a story we first brought you yesterday. the irs has now resumed processing tax returns after a hardware failure halted filings. according to an irs statement, tax refunds were unaffected and taxpayers who filed during or before the outage don't need to take any additional steps or actions. >> all right. so let's look now at what's happening here for the morning's top trending stories. the world has lost another great musician. founder of earth, wind, and fire, maurice white, has died at 74 years old after battling parkinson's disease. the band sold more than 90 million albums and was inducted into the rock and roll hall of fame back in 0 -- 2000. >> another music legend. it's been a bad year for that.

new health foods at mcdonald's are a bit less healthy than meets the eye. the kale salad has more fat and sodium than a double big mac burger. >> but i think that's about the dressing. if you just had kale and chicken t wouldn't be that bad. if you put dressings on it. i guess maybe you can control one variable but not dousing it in dressing. i like dressing. >> i like dressing with my kale. >> anyway, coming up, our must-reads of the day, including a case for why you should take the day off after the super bowl. and we asked you on twitter if the monday after should be a national holiday. make sure to vote. so far, most of you are saying yes. >> but not everybody. >> shocking, i know. but it's not that big. it's a close call. it's about needs and wants. we'll be right back.

now to today's must reads. the stories that caught our attention. we've got a super bowl football theme going today. in "the new york times" ahead of the big game, george lundberg, a pathologist and chief medical officer writing, the nfl's next play, address brain trauma or fade away. here's his pretty sharp warning here. the future of the sport hinges on whether any serious rule changes can appeal rate the brain damage.meliorate the brain

damage. he goes into the dangers of boxing and how that led to, not the sport's collapse, but a lot less attention. he warns the nfl needs to do the same, tougher penalties. the nfl just needs to get more serious on this issue. it's not a new issue. certainly the criticism is heating up despite the economic success. >> the nfl has made the case they've made a number of rule changes over the past five, ten years addressing some of these injury related issues. of course, it was a huge part of the reason why concussion got such a huge amount of interest, the movie. >> but he still says they're not doing enough. >> now, we're going to take a lighter note here as well. the injury thing is serious, but let's talk about this "wall street journal" op-ed. should the super bowl be a holiday? i couldn't agree more, says jas jason gay. by the end of the game, you have

changed your shirt twice and can barely get off the couch, much less go to work in a few hours. why not make monday a federal day off? >> is this the story of you? >> i mean, so i don't normally have to work as early as you do. so i can stay up and watch the whole game and eat and not feel that bad the next day. still, it's a little bit of a joke here. still a lot of people want a day off the next day. they don't really need it. >> so here's my question. why don't they just do it a week later on presidents' day weekend where we have monday off anyway? >> but i want another day off. i'm just saying, wants and needs. >> well, keep tweeting us. we'll share the poll results later. should the monday after be a holiday? we're just about at the top of the hour. joe, becky, and andrew are hard at work. the big jobs report. joe joining us from midtown manhattan. monday, you think it should be a holiday, joe? >> i would never say let's not have another holiday. i'm not going to be here anyway. >> we know where you're going

though. we have no sympathy for you. >> going to work. >> yeah, you're going to work. on the left coast. >> the at&t pebble beach -- >> yeah, i wanted him to say it. >> have you seen previous shows we've done out there? bill murray we've had on a lot of the ceos. we don't get all of them because some of them are kind of incognito when they're out there. i don't know what it is. less so maybe than in the past. but some of them are wearing the dark glasses and pulling the hats down, the overcoats. we get some that come on. look, they work hard. they're allowed to go out for a couple days. there's a lot of networking that goes on. i'm not quite as reticent. >> we just know you play, so we don't have any sympathy for you. >> i'm going to tell you something along these lines, dom. i saw the robot with the hole in one. i started thinking cyborg.

life half human, half machine. i started thinking what part of me i would need to have a robot to get my tempo where it was good every time. i think all i can really keep is my head as human. the rest is going to have to be machine, most likely. then i thought, you know what, i could screw it up. i need a psychiatrist. so really, it's not going to work. you need to be a whole -- like, using your fake arms, that's not going to work. i'd have to work from the ground up. hips, the way i'm not pivoting. what do you think, dom? what would you need to get that perfect swing again and again and again? >> joe, we're going to let you think about that for the next few minutes. i know you'll be thinking about that and the big jobs number and everything else. you have a full plate. >> who's your game, cam newton? if you watch carolina, when it started the year, it was like, wow, these guys might be pretty good. mid year it was like, wow, these

guys are good. playoffs, it's like, these guys are dominant. i'm not sure. what do you think? denver have a chance? >> if you want to follow the super bowl indicator, i guess you want an nfc team to win. >> that's not what i'm asking you. >> i'm rooting for cam newton's wardrobe choices. >> i didn't mind those pants. peyton manning had a blue suit with brown shoes. what's worse? >> zebra pants all the way. joe, thank you. see you in a bit. >> well, coming up, the countdown to that big jobs report begins here. well-known economist david rosenberg joining us on set next. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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and if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. ♪ welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we're all wearing red for go red today to raise awareness for women's heart disease. you'll see that all over cnbc today. we're also keeping a close eye on the markets ahead of the big jobs report, which could move markets and signal action for

the federal reserve when it is released at 8:30. joining us with his expectations, david rosenberg, chief economist and strategist. good to see you. >> thanks, sara. >> will a good jobs number today help lift the spirits in this very depressed market? >> well, it's debatable, actually. i only say that because look what happened a month ago. we had a ripping number. and look what happened on the markets afterwards. there's a lot of other things going on right now between doubts over what's happening in china and emerging markets in general. southeast asia, the economies will are really tipping over. the oil prices obviously correlate with everything these days. i'm not going to say the employment number is the be all that ends all. but if it's a strong number, what happens then? the markets start to reprice the fed. a weak number will solidify all these recession expectations. i think what we should hope for is a number along with consensus. >> so let's -- i mean, you have an economic and kmarkt timarketa

lot of the analysis you do. where does jobs rank in terms of what you said, oil, the economy, emerging markets, china, everything else? >> well, when push comes to shove, there's nothing more important than employment. why is that? it's because it supports 70% of the economy called the consumer. so i think the employment number and the details within the number, the workweek, the dispersion, the breadth of the gains. we already know that the energy sector is bleeding pretty badly. that's going to continue. the question is, how does that feed through the rest of the economy? and the wage number is going to be critical as well. personal income is critical for the economic outlook. stock market participants, we to focus on corporate earnings. that's roughly 15% of national income. the big chunk is personal income. the reason i'm not a big fan of the recession view is it's going to be difficult to get a recession, with all deference to what's happening in the manufacturing sector, without employment and personal incomes receding. the growth there is still decent enough that i'm still confident

as feeble as the economy is right now, we're going to escape an actual downturn. >> for so many years, you were known as one of the biggest bears on wall street. i know you've changed your tune and have been positive on the economy for a few years now, but you are not buying this recession threat. >> well, i would say the view that the economy has hit stall speed means if we get hit with some sort of shock, there's very little cushion between where growth is right now and actually slipping below zero. that much i understand. so the risk is obviously not zero. but you got to think about the u.s. economy, this $18 trillion juggerna juggernaut, it takes a lot. when you look at the historical regard, it takes a massive shock or a series of shocks to cause the economy to go into an actual recession. there's pocks of the economy that are weak right now. i think it's actually transitory. manufacturing, a lot of that is reflecting in oil and reflecting in what used to be a strong u.s. dollar. i don't think these -- and the inventory, of course, the withdrawal, that is temporary.

ultimately, what determines whether or not we're going to be in recession is the american consumer. what's interesting is you take a look at business confidence surveys. they're going down. consumer confidence surveys are pretty good. business spending has been weak. most of the relief from the oil prices has not been spent on the real economy. but when you talk about a 5.5% savings rate going into this year, the consumer sector has quite a bit of fire power in case things start to stabilize. there's a lot of potential on the upside. >> there's been a lot of debate about how big of an effect oil has had on the u.s. economy. it's obviously metals and mining, oil and gas. jobs have been on the decline for a long time right. in your opinion, how important is the energy trade to the overall well being of the u.s. economy? >> well, i think that -- it happened in '85, '84. oil went down, the economy weakened initially. same thing in canada. what happens with this oil price

shock is this. the losses get concentrated quickly in the production community. we're seeing that now. production energy investment. you see that in realtime. the benefits, and most of the economy, actually benefit. this is a de facto tax cut. but the benefits are true over time. it's a lag. in 1985, '86, those were pretty soft years for the economy. what happened with the lag is the oil price stabilized. people started to spend the windfall. they didn't do it initially. 1987, '88 was a big upside surprise for the economy. i'm knnot saying we're going to have that kind of growth this time around, but the winners, those gains accrue with the lag. right now we're looking at superimposing what's happening at the current moment. of course, the losses are steep on the production side. and building up this scenario we're going to have a recession. i'm not there. i think that ultimately to get the recession, look, there's

four business cycle determinants. there's employment, there's personal income, there's business sales, industrial production. industrial production certainly is in some form of recession right now. >> so this is the point of the week on a friday where we bring in our chart of the week, the most important charts that stood out to us this week. i chose the banks. there has been relentless selling of american banks, of foreign banks. if your view that we're not heading into recession is correct, then why on earth are we seeing recession-type valuations in some of these banking stocks? >> i have three answers for you. normally an economist will have two answers. i have three. >> make them quick. we have a minute left in the show. >> i think the markets are pricing in probably deeper declines in oil prices, bigger write downs. i think the markets are pricing in bigger write downs. point number two, the fact the fed has been priced out means we're not going to get this big expansion in margins everyone was expecting. the other thing is of course

sovereign wealth funds seem to have been dumping a lot of their stocks. >> all right. we got to lee it there. david, thank you. have a great weekend from "worldwide exchange." e your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments so in a variety of market conditions... you can feel confident... ...in our experience. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

good morning and welcome to jobs trfriday. we're counting down to the morning's big number. final predictions straights ahead. remember that blow-out number last time? will we see anything weakness given things seem to have changed in tone a little in the economy? hillary clinton and bernie sanders sparring last night over wall street connections, foreign policy, and which candidate is a true progressive. i think they're actually trying to claim the mantle of a progressive rather than shoei s it. i'm not sure. and it's super bowl weekend. that means it's time for cnbc to quiz the players on business

news. the best and worst answers, plus some savvy investment calls from the broncos and the panthers. it's friday, february 5th. "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the countdown is on. we are just 2 1/2 hours from the january employment report. forecasters say the economy probably added about 185,000 jobs last month. that's a big drop from the 292,000 december payrolls number. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5%. let's check out the u.s. equity futures. yesterday the markets actually ended higher. dow was up by about 80 points. you c