news. the best and worst answers, plus some savvy investment calls from the broncos and the panthers. it's friday, february 5th. "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the countdown is on. we are just 2 1/2 hours from the january employment report. forecasters say the economy probably added about 185,000 jobs last month. that's a big drop from the 292,000 december payrolls number. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5%. let's check out the u.s. equity futures. yesterday the markets actually ended higher. dow was up by about 80 points. you c you can see those futures

indicated higher. >> a couple other big stories we're watching this morning. fed speak ahead of today's big jobs report. cleveland fed president loretta mester telling a conference yesterday that the u.s. economy remains sound and will overcome recent market turbulence. the policymaker suggesting this will allow tightening to continue as planned. let's bring you up to speed on what happened in the asian markets overnight. the nikkei closing lower for a fifth straight day. chinese markets will be closed for a week starting on monday. preparations for new years celebrations are well under way as the country getting ready to usher in the year of the monkey. then there's apple news this morning. nine to five mac, a pretty solid but speculative website, is reporting that apple is aparentally considering bringing

its software services to android devices. the report citing comments tim cook made to some employees at a company-wide town hall meeting. he's said to have mentioned apple music as a way to test its services on non-apple made hardware. other options in the future could include services like i-cloud and i-pay. >> is that, in your view, dealing from a position of strength, or -- you know what i mean? there was a time when intel would never make chips for mac. >> it's reality. >> is it strength? is it conceding? >> i would say it's not a concession in any which way because -- they've already done it. itunes is available on windows. they did that a long time ago. it was a whole community of people who had windows computers

that wanted to connect them. i think this is a defensive move, per se, just another way to get out there. now, how far they go with the services, i don't know. by the way, google has gmail on the iphone. it would not be totally crazy for apple to have some of its services on. >> and windows, you can get windows outlook on your apple laptop. >> really? >> yes. >> i'm still trying to figure out, we bought a lot of itunes stuff that we have. then we got apple music. i'm not sure how that works. do we own the one and rent the other? >> exactly right. certain things you own and certain things you're renting. >> i understand a lot of other things really well. >> i know you do. you're very clever and thoughtful and smart. >> i admit this stuff -- okay. stocks to watch today. i'd never join this thing. people constantly ask me, let me in, let me in. i can't let you in, i'm not on this thing. >> if they're asking to let you in, someone has created a site for you.

that means you have a fake site. cnbc probably set it up for you. >> jose conseco responded to my fake @joekernen twitter site saying i love you. there's a picture of me, but it's not really. >> that's cool. >> it is. he has 550,000. >> tweet him back and invite him on. >> i don't know how. he didn't tweet it to my -- >> i will do it now on your behalf. >> i'm going send you the tweet he put out. >> i can go find it. how about that? >> on his website? >> i'm sure i could. >> twitter thing. all right. what i'm talking about, and it doesn't even say linkedin here. it says likedin. >> it did say linkedin. >> i can't read. the networking site giving weak fourth quarter guidance that overshadowed beating the top and bottom lines. that's what the stock is keying off of, obviously. 57 points.

really? that hurts. a similar story -- i'm not la h laughing. they beat on top and bottom line. yay. that's what people said yesterday before it reopened. similar story for tableau software. topping earnings but license revenue growth slowed. the company revealing it probably won't realize the benefit of certain tax assets. shares at this hour also down 40%. toyota reporting a 5% fall on operating profit last quarter, missing expectations, but the automaker raised its full-year forecast and announced a 150 billion yen share buy back. that would be a heck of a dollar share buy back, but it's not. >> let's take another look at the markets this morning. we're sitting on two days of gains. back-to-back gains for the markets. you can see now the futures are indicated higher, but not by a lot. dow futures up 13 points. s&p futures up marginally. the nasdaq up marginally as

well. in europe, ahead of the big jobs number report coming up later, you can see some green arrows there. the biggest gainer of the main averages is the france cac, up by half a percent. in asia overnight, let's take a look. you'll see japan was down by 1.3%. the shanghai composite a little weaker. oil prices settled down yesterday. stocks moved higher even though oil was down. this morning, wti is back up by about 8 cents to $31. 80 cents a barrel. right now we're taking a look at brent, which is relatively flat. let's look at the ten-year note. you'll see the yield, at least at this point, looks like it is, wow, 1.853%. still well below 2%. the dollar was weaker yesterday too. check out where the euro stands today. yesterday it hit its highest level since october. dollar is stronger against the

euro but still sitting at 1.12, dollars to the euro. if you look at the dollar-yen, it's at 116.67. and gold continues to hit new highs. it's at 1,159 an ounce. >> and the january jobs report. here to start the countdown, michelle gerrard and andrew slimmin. michelle, there's just a perception that the great number we had last time, since it's a lagging indicator, did perhaps other parts of the economy, both here and globally, had sort of a down shift and maybe that will be the best report we have had for a while. >> i think that's true. i'm fairly optimistic about the economy. certainly not as pessimistic as others are. even i have a 180 forecast for today. the fourth quarter we saw blow

outj out job growth. i think the first quarter we'll see the reversal of that. there were some special things going on in december, like all the hiring of couriers and messengers ahead of the holiday season. that right there from a gain to a loss could be a swing of 50,000 off of the number. so i think there are some reasons away from the fundame fundamenta fundamentals. >> the tremors we're seeing in different markets, and i'm talking about a ten year at 1.85, that's hard to understand, or oil threatening to hit $25. are any of those early signs of even more weakness than people are anticipating? >> the big question is, in particular oil, is it a demand story or a supply story? no question a lot of that was demand. i suspect this last push is more of a supply story that should be

ultimately positive for the economy. but there's no question the tightening in financial conditions. whether it was justified or sending a signal or just market adjustments of whatever sort can feed back through and undermine to some extent growth. that's what we're also watchful of. things look fine now, but if financial conditions tighten f the equity market keeps going down f credit spreads continue to widen, could that come back and undermine domestic demand no matter what the initial catalyst was. >> there's stories now that china could run out of its reserves if it keeps trying to boost the yuan. so you're in a world where everyone is debasing their currency. the emerging markets are eventually going to have to do that. it may not be a problem eventually that it's rampant inflation. it may just be the growth is so slow that they've got no tools left. and even this isn't going to work. >> i think that's worse. that's the problem to some extent here. it feels very much a little bit like a race to the bottom.

every central bank is easing. the fed can't ease. that makes everybody else have to ease more. where does it all come to an end? none of it is really generating groets. at some point you worry the markets will have a concern that there's no efficacy in monetary policy, nothing to be done on the policy side. then it's really a very scary situation where everyone -- there's a fear of nothing can be done. you wonder to what extent there is some of that where you feel like policymakers are losing control over globally what can happen. >> andrew, we need you to help us with what this says about ek we itti -- equities, whether they've discounted this. i'm going to sneeze, i think. it is a problem. >> you started by saying andrew. >> oh, andrew.

thanks for coming in today. thank you for making. before the show started. you had almost 40 seconds to get settled in and prepare and everything. andrew was here way before you. the other andrew. no, so i asked about the economy globally. i don't know if the stock market is related to that. have we already turned arno eed enough to make another decent advance? >> the fact that gold is going up, what does that tell you? i think the market is starting to anticipate that the fed is not going to act, right. so that's the number one thing. number two is if you saw the dollar has started to weaken against some currencies, that's also telling you the fed is not going to raise rates. i think the problem with this number is if it's too strong, then oh, my gosh, the fed is going to tighten in march and the market is not going to like that. if the number is too weak, here comes recession. >> so we need a goldilocks number that's just right. >> that's the problem for today. i think at the end of the day, i don't think any of these issues,

fed tightening, oil weakness, you know, chinese devalue the union a -- yuan should cause a problem on a standalone basis. the fact is that weak oil, there's a lag to when consumers start spending that money. it hasn't kicked in yet. we're seeing all the downside of weak earnings from the energy sector. we haven't seen -- >> although, how long does it take for that to kick in? >> we're in a debt reduction economy still. consumers are paying down debt. >> it should take a couple quarters. >> absolutely. >> i have to say, we've seen, away from that fourth quarter number, we had seen an uptick in consumer spending. we had been trending to two. then we were closer to three. fourth quarter was soft because consumer spending was back at two.

so we have had, i think, some benefit. at the moment, again, it's getting very little credit because everyone is making assumptions about how sustainable it can be. >> when the government realizes there's an opportunity for them to take it and use it for central planning purposes and -- right when they both realize, wow, there's quite a bit of money there. yeah, we have a better way to spends it. >> that's the problem with financials. they raise rates a little bit. that's supposed to help the banks. but they took it back from them the other way. >> it is dra crazy though. not only is it a two-part question about the markets, it's almost a two-part question with the fed. the economy may be fine, but because of what's happening in financial markets, the fed may not move. but then the markets are okay because they don't think the feds are moving. now the fed can move, and it's all very circular. it feels like we're going to continue to go through these cycles. >> this may be part of a 2% gdp economy. you can never grow strong enough

to say we feel the economy is going to overtake what the fed was going to do. >> if you think about it, since 2009, we've had these shocks along the way. oh, my gosh, it's the recession. we just don't have enough of a buffer zone. >> don't have enough momentum. >> exactly. but the opportunity is set in equities, even though we might be in this 2% range. the opportunity set is definitely changing. the best time to buy stocks are 2 in recessions. >> you would buy energy stocks? >> you have to be looking at things tied to energy. industrial commodities. we know the best time to buy stocks is in a recession. >> but there are a lot of people who said we can't predict where oil prices are going. maybe you buy the industrials off that, but you wouldn't necessarily by the ep. >> yes, i think there are very high-quality ways to buy stocks that have been one way touched by what's going on in energy. there are a lot of companies where their dividend yields are above their bond yields. that's telling you these

companies aren't going to fail, but their stocks are down a lot. that's the point here. you don't necessarily have to speculate just on oil to take advantage of what the market is offering. so in a 2% environment, the market has so much volatility, the opportunities change. >> probably weed a lot of those weak players out with that tax too. we'll slap $10 a barrel on there. probably half the industry we can put out of business. thin the herd. >> what are the saudis ultimately trying to do? >> the saudis? >> what are they trying to do? >> i think they're trying to g figure out a way to stay in power. >> they're grabbing market share ultimately to get the price back up. >> that's a long-term game. >> absolutely. >> what are they are doing in the meantime? throwing people in jail that don't like their -- never mind. michelle, thank you.

and r arou andrew, thank you. >> never an andy? >> never. >> how about a drew? >> never. >> i tried to get andy to stick once at camp. never could make it work. >> drew is all right. >> i like drew. >> drew is okay. andrew isn't that hard to say. >> two syllables. >> the chinese new year begins monday and marks the largest annual human migration in the world. more on that story. >> reporter: every year, hundreds of millions of chinese get on trains, planes, and buses to go home to celebrate the lunar new year. it's the biggest annual migration of people on the planet. this holiday doesn't officially begin until february 8th, but already in the year of the monkey, millions of migrant workers have gone home because of the slowing economy.

many are fearing their jobs might not be available to them when they come back to the big cities. the weaker economy is making white-collar employees nervous too. this is a time of year when companies pay out bonuses, often a month's salary or more. according to one beijing based recruitment website, two-thirds of those polled believed they wouldn't get an extra paycheck from their bosses this holiday season. ordinary chinese spend about $1,000 during the seven-day holiday, buying gifts, dining out, traveling, and passing out red packets of cash to family and friends. however, with stock markets so volatile, the yuan weak, and traditionally powerful industries like manufacturing shrinking, more chinese are starting to tighten their pursestrings and are bracing themselves for an unpredictable year of the monkey. cnbc, beijing. >> you see all the people crammed in there. you thought your rush hour was going to be bad. thanks to yunis. >> when we return, the race for the democratic presidential nomination got a little chippy

last night. we'll show you highlights, get a live report from john harwood, who's in new hampshire, next. and later, companies shelling out $5 million for super bowl ads. we'll get a sneak peek. we're back in a moment. the future belongs to the fast.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. the irs has resumed processing tax returns after a hardware failure that halted filing yesterday. according to a statement, tax refunds were unaffected and taxpayers who filed during or before the outage do not need to take any additional steps or action. hillary clinton and bernie sanders sparred last night over their credentials as, quote, progressives, and clinton's financial connections to wall street became a big topic. john harwood joins us now with more on all of that. john? >> reporter: andrew, what we saw last night was the kind of full-throated populous debate you get when a democratic socialist senator from vermont, bernie sanders, has a 20-point lead in the new hampshire polls after having tied hillary clinton in the iowa caucuses. hillary clinton, the one-time front runner, still the front runner, is trying to catch up. take a listen to this exchange. >> i want to go after the

pharmaceutical companies that are increasing prices without any regard to the impact on people's health. so i have a broader view. now, if all we're going to talk about is one part of our economy, and indeed one street in our economy, we're missing the big oil companies, we're missing other big energy companies. we're missing the big picture. >> my view, the business model of wall street is fraud. it's fraud. i believe that corruption is rampant, and the fact that major bank after major bank has reached multibillion-dollar settlements with the united states government when we have a weak regulatory system tells me that not only did we have to bail them out once, if we don't start breaking them up, we're going to have to bail them out again. >> reporter: now, we'll see whether that debate on msnbc, our sister network, helps

hillary clinton pull a little closer. some of the tracking polls are showing her moving up a bit, but she's got a lot of ground to make up. interestingly, guys, you hear some strains, nothing like last night, but some strains in the republican talk and criticism of crony capitalism from the outsiders in the race, both donald trump and ted cruz. we'll see, they've got a debate on saturday night on abc. in that race, you have donald trump with a substantial lead, but the tracking shows him coming down a little bit. marco rubio coming up into second place, and ted cruz very close. interesting dynamics. >> are you back on again this morning, john? do you have more sound bites to play for us? i skillfully and successfully didn't see any of that. thanks for bringing that to me. what was that, about 45 seconds of my life you just took? so don't just talk about financials. i guarantee i'm going to slam

pharmaceuticals. i'm going after oil companies. i'm going across the board. i'm going after the whole private sector. even when i said, who wants to argue about being a progressive more, who's going to take that mantle, who's going to be more successful in mirroring the success of some of these other socialist nations historically and shutting down prosperity. it's just unbelievable to watch. i guess it's because hillary feels she has to tack left because there is a real fight going on here, which is a staggering, staggering fact in and of itself that the democratic party is now at a point where the center of that party is almost to where bernie sanders is. it's just staggering to me, john. i saw what hillary said about the goldman sachs thing. then she said, look, i'm going to put them in jail, i'm going to shut them down, i'm going to -- i know they're all corrupt. it's just -- so wall street is not an engine of capitalism, john? it's not something that needs to be nurtured for job creation and for everything else?

is that for sure? is that a fact? >> reporter: well, i think bernie sanders would be more likely to try to put them in jail since he said the whole business model is fraud. >> who are we putting in jail? all of them? the entire system is corrupt. and we have a whole network devoted to a corrupt system. that's great. >> reporter: yeah, well, look, in the pharmaceutical stuff, you saw what happened with shkreli yesterday at that hearing. you had a lot of members of congress, both parties teeing off on him. >> rightly so. >> reporter: these candidates were surfing that sentiment last night. >> but you saw that. he's a kid. he's in no way a representative of the pharmaceutical or biotech industry at all. >> john, are you a believer that these comments that hillary is making, given her previous ties to wall street -- and by the way, we're going to have ben white on. there were meetings and dinners

she had scheduled with other people on wall street to raise money from them that she's now cancelling because of the optics. the question is, is this rhetoric to win and then she tacks back to where i think she used to be? or is this a new hillary? >> reporter: oh, i don't think it's that new of a hillary. look, you got to cut through the rhetoric and look for the actual proposals, which a lot of what she's talking about mirrors what president obama has been proposing. for example, she attacks in every stump speech what she calls -- what we call on the air tax inversion. she calls them perversions. she's got an exit tax on companies that want to relocate their corporate headquarters. the administration has tried various means of going after in the absence of legislation the propensity for companies to shift their capital structure so that they reduce their taxes. there's bipartisan interest in congress in doing something about that. so the rhetoric gets out a

little beyond what the actual proposals are. some of which, as i said, some of these sentiments, the idea that average people can't get ahead and there's something cooked about our economy is -- that has roots in both parties. it's reflected in a more aggressive way on the democratic side. >> okay. john harwood. >> becky is going to be my conscious now, my filter. >> your filter, not your conscious. >> filter with a conscious. >> i guess both. >> your conscience might need a filter. >> john, don't run any more. >> reporter: i just don't think you should hold back. >> he's baiting you. do not listen to him. trust me. >> coming up, the --

>> yeah, my friend? >> reporter: if you hold back, you're going to regret it. you're going to go to break regretting it. >> i'm going to get back up. i feel like these things are in the ether, and i'm just like the rod that verbalizes some of these things. they're out there. >> you can as soon as we go to commercial break. >> okay. >> canadian dollar hit hard by falling energy and commodity prices. find out why the free fall might be putting quebec's nhl bid on ice. i like this. that's cool to say that. nhl bid on ice. >> plus, we're going to show you video that's going viral of a robot making a hole in one. i immediately thought cyborg. what part of the robot would i use? i'd need the whole thing. as we head to break, a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity.

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welcome back, everybody. you might notice we're all wearing red today. lean in with your ties. check this out. we're all in red. there's a reason for that. today is national wear red day. this is in honor of women's heart health. we know heart attacks kill a lot of people, but you don't necessarily think of women being taken down by this. it is the largest killer of women, heart disease and stroke that goes along with that. something like one in three deaths among women each year is because of this. it kills about one woman every 80 seconds.

this is to raise awareness for that. >> is the incidence among women higher, or is it about the same, which you just don't think about for some reason? >> not sure. >> i think it might be a bigger -- a higher incident. >> that's what i want to say. >> it's any cardiovascular. >> also, women tend to take some of the symptoms a little less seriously. they think they're just tired, i'm not feeling well. >> women don't go to doctors as much. did you see that? >> i think it's also because moms end up taking care of the kids, husband, everybody else, and not taking care of themselves quite as well. i know that's the case with my mom. >> it doesn't mean i'm a red stater when i wear red, but for you, it has -- you had to find a red tie. >> no, no, no. i own this red tie. get the cameras going down to the shoes. i am matching. do you see this? there you go. actually, this came in the mail from a viewer who sent a pair of

socks in the mail about a month ago. i didn't know what to do with them. >> remember that lady at the beginning of "wizard of oz"? >> the wicked witch. >> glt socks or something of the sort. i saw them and thought i could try to match the tie. >> you had a red tie? >> i own the red tie proudly. absolutely. >> i had no idea. could have been anything. >> you forget that red used to be associated with being a commie. >> that's true. >> just wanted to explain that. >> you go so far left you become right. >> now we're into this whole progressive, look mccarthy-ism situation. >> who's not progressive enough? really amazing. 10, 15, 20 years ago after reagan, the world liberal had a negative -- like, if you called someone a liberal, that's like -- it was like a

pejorative. >> there's been a huge rise on the left, along with on the right. >> but the center of the democratic party is la-la land right now. you've got to admit that. you've got to bring it back. >> it's not in the center. this is very true. it's complicated. >> then we have ted cruz on the right. >> but ted cruz will have a harder time pulling off a hillary clinton in terms of wall street story because of his wife. i think it's harder for ted cruz to denigrate wall street in the same way. though, by the way, i think some of his supporters would love that too. >> yesterday when i watched secretary clinton say that, i was like, great. that's what they offer. it's like, good. but then afterwards, she said, i didn't know i was going to run for president then. i was thinking maybe -- that's when i said, oh, maybe that's not completely truthful. don't you think she always knew? >> i think in the back of her mind she probably had a little wish fulfillment.

>> already thought about this because i was thinking, if you check this out, this is ldric the robot. he's a golfer making history yesterday. he was playing the 16th hole at tpc scottsdale and hit a hole in one. it was the robot's fifth attempt. only five attempts, which is pretty amazing. ldric stands for launch directional robot intelligence circuitry. ldric also happened to be the birth name of tiger. robot is owned by former pro golfer and a guy i know, buddy of mine, gary mccord. >> that's unbelievable. >> i tried to figure out some way i could use this. like cyborg. i said, should i use my arms? that wouldn't be enough. i figure because maybe my leg, no, my hips don't do the right thing. >> watch his swing. all the way around. >> number one, you don't want to swing at the ball. you want to swing through the

ball. if you notice where the club was tethered, that was ahead of where the club face was. that's how you get that. when you're out of sync as a golfer with your body, you do horrific things. it's hard because you have a day when you do well and you're in sync, then you're out of sync. i want some cyborg pieces to try and help me. even if it was all way down here, i'd still have the problem here. >> the mental. >> it's not going to work. >> do you think the robot figures out where the ball has to land? >> no, no. i think they aim it and put an exact swing on. it's a repeatable swing, which is what every golfer tries to get. >> kind of like one of those catapults. just keep lining it up. >> that's an amazing thing. >> only five attempts and it went in. >> all right. coming up, it is super bowl weekend. we will talk advertising with the ceo of bbdo worldwide.

the company has ads for snickers, mountain dew, and priceline all in sunday's game. plus, jane wells got a chance to interview some broncos and some panthers about business news. we have the highlights next. >> what are the chances of quantitative easing? >> i think they'll start it again. >> they're going to lower rates again? >> yes. >> i disagree. i think the economy is healthy enough. keep raising them. so you're a small business expert from at&t? yeah, give me a problem and i've got the solution. well, we have 30 years of customer records. our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. my drivers don't have time to fill out forms. tablets. keep it all digital. we're looking to double our deliveries. our fleet apps will find the fastest route. oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. ahh, you're good. i like to bake. get expert advice for your small business at att.com/small business.

victoria stilwell, you appear on tv working with canines. are you a dog lover, watson? i do not own a dog. but i work with veterinarians. how do you do that? i help them analyse over one hundred thousand pages of medical studies. that's great... 'cause they can't exactly tell us what's wrong with them. isn't that right, rusty? rusty. who is a good boy? who is a good boy? you are. yes, you are. watson, i think you need to work on your dog voice.

it is super bowl weekend, and we have an old tradition around here. jane wells took up task this time around. she caught up with some of the players from the broncos and

panthers ahead of sunday's big game to measure their economic smarts. >> what's the price of oil? >> the price of oil? >> is this a quiz? >> last time i think irnl it was under $30 a barrel. >> how much a barrel, like 30? >> you got a "wall street journal" right there. >> about $30. >> you're absolutely right. >> who is janet yellen? >> no idea. >> sounds so familiar to me. >> next question. >> janet yellow? >> she's the fed director. >> yep, yep. nailed it. >> if you had a million dollars to invest in any company right now, where would you put it? >> i would probably put it in -- i would put it in real estate. >> chipotle. >> why? >> you have the e. coli scare, everyone runs away for a little bit, it goes from 7 50 to 450 a share. it's a great value. >> i love this. every year we do it, and every year you get these great -- and these guys knew what they were

talking about. we've done some where it's been a little less. >> real estate. good call. >> you're not kidding. >> knew the prices for some stocks. >> knew what a barrel of oil was. it was great. we have more on jane wells' player quiz in the next hour. right now we're going to talk about some of the costs of those kme commercials you'll be seeing on sunday. $5 million for nearly 30-second spots. andrew robertson is the head of bbdo, which produced three spots for this super bowl. good to see you. >> a quiz first. >> we have oil boards. we can show you. so andrew, $5 million. does it really make sense? how do you justify it? >> okay. it does for some advertisers. doesn't necessarily for all. i actually got a really fun fact, which is this year the total will be $377 million, which is more than all of the super bowls in the '60s, '70s, and '80s combined.

it's about 30% to 40% over what you would normally pay per thousand. but it can make sense. and the reasons it can make sense are firstly, sheer scale. you've got 114 million or 117 million viewers. the next best, biggest live event is the oscars at about 37, grammys, 25, "grease live," 12. >> 20% of the -- yeah. >> that's huge. >> just so we're clear, there's the our $5 million rate card. then there's the cost of the production of the commercial, which is often millions of dollars. >> can be. this year there's a heavy use of celebrities. 33 celebrities, which is the highest it's been in years. >> so how much would the production on one of these 30-second ads cost? >> depends which ones you're looking at. it could be a couple hundred thousand dollars or several million. >> then all the money to support the ad. it's like you're supporting the

avid in all the social media and the fact you're going to then run that ad in other places. >> you have to do that because if you just ran a spot in the super bowl, it would make no sense at all. >> so this is really a $10 million to $20 million project before the game even starts in some ways. >> probably a bit less, but it's way more than five. the point is, it's not just television's biggest night. it's social media's biggest night. last year there were 65 million conversations going on, on facebook during the game. there were 300,000 hours of game ads watched on youtube while the game was on. so the trick is to get your campaign started in the weeks leading up to the super bowl, peak in the two days immediately afterwards, and try and keep it going. >> that's why we've seen so many of the ads already. >> 22 of the 44 brands that are going to be on the screen on sunday night have already released their ads. >> i see what you're getting at, andrew, about whether the payoff

is really there, but by definition, because there's other people that will pay the five if you're not going to do it, but by definition there's a market. >> it's more than that because cbs, it's 4.8 to 5 for the spot itself. but you have to make a commitment. >> the other thing you're saying, okay, for pepsi, i know what pepsi is. i've seen it my entire life. do i need to see a 30-second spot to tell me that suddenly i want pepsi? then there's people you've never heard of that get a breakthrough moment for the 5 million. i don't know whether to an established company -- >> you've seen it in your life, but there are younger kids coming up all the time. >> for the established companies, is it really worth 5 unti million? >> yeah, because if you're in a category that people shop, if you take soft drinks, people don't just drink one drink or another. mental availability is a huge driver of sales. having your brand talked about is a big driver of sales.

the beauty of the super bowl is it is a shared experience. people watch the game together. they see the ads together. they talk about the advertising and brands together. >> so a commercial can help the brand too, which makes no sense. >> totally it does. the point about that word of mouth in the super bowl is it happens at scale and happens at once. >> so you have three ads. you have a priceline ad, a snickers ad, which is going to get a lot of buzz. seems to be already. and you have a mountain dew ad. what does a celebrity get paid to be part of tf? do they just want to be part of it because of the exposure? >> a bit of both. depends on the celebrity. i don't know what alec baldwin is being paid. >> on a night like the super bowl, how many people do you have to have on hand working literally twitter and facebook? you remember the oreos moment when there was a blackout. it was brilliant. you had to have almost a crisis team, if you will, ready to go.

>> 20 people on each of the brands. >> and they're all sitting there tweeting away. >> that's what they do. >> andrew, great to see you. you don't want to say your favorite. they're all like your children. >> i will challenge you to try to get the phrase puppy monkey baby out of your head once you see it. >> we'll be saying that on monday a lot. >> lady gaga comes out, classy or crazy? she's got the oscar nomination and the golden globe now. she's going to come out classy, right? >> classy. >> she's changing her m.o. a little. and coldplay, excited to be there, honored to be there, said they have no idea how football works. >> and there is speculation you know who is going to come out with them. >> who? >> beyonce. >> oh, yeah, we heard that. >> you heard that. >> all right. coming up, comments by new york

fed president bill dudley sparking dollar weakness over the last few sessions. we'll talk the impact on oil prices after the break. vo: know you have a dedicated

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with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team. . welcome back. the dollar continuing its slump. the greenback falling as officials dim expectations of more rate hikes. the managing director of fx

strategy. also a cnbc contributor. boris, we talked about the weaker dollar. all of a sudden it looks like the fed may path hold on things. the dollar plummets as a result. when you get numbers like we're waiting for today if we get a strong number that could put pressure -- >> put the fed back in play. it has to be a super strong number. frankly most of the expectations are going to miss. both ism reports showed weaker employment numbers and strong inoccasion for reverse to naeme. >> we could see unemployment fall below 5%. >> it's about jobs and wage growth. i think the fed at this point ran into a very cold hard reality of global slow down. the market expectations really have been tempered now the market is looking for june at the very earliest.

days of dollar parity is long gone. >> we're looking at $1.13 on the euro. >> what's more troubling is dollar/yen. dollar/yen is trading around 116-117 level. if we break that level technically that basically says the dollar rally is over. so it's very important to watch all those levels today. >> i used to think that the dollar was, people were all on the wrong side it would go stronger. but i wonder if this is too much of an over correction. >> for the dollar? >> yeah. >> are we on the tipping edge of a possible contraction in the u.s. that will tell us whether the dollar value is. very best dollar rally is in a corrupted phase. i don't think you see the dollar rally for a while.

one thing that will happen is that the secret beneficiary of all this has been gold. the rate story out of boj has made gold a much more interesting story. now with the world going further, further down below zero, you know, we've seen gold pop now. it held 1,000 level. popped at 1150, could go to 1,200 very easily. >> where do you feel comfortable placing betts. what currencies are you likely to go long? >> it's a great question. i think it's a tough market. i do think the euro at 113, 114 is a sell because ultimately the ecb is going to have to expand its qe. they have been talking about it. they have to expand more. we're getting at levels where the dollar will be buy especially against the euro. >> boris, thank you for coming in today. >> stay dry in the snow. when we return countdown to the jobs report is on.

we're 90 minutes away. predictions from fidelity and ubs strategist. we'll talk job creation with guest host martin franklin. he's got a super bowl ad this weekend. we're back in a moment. need to hire fast?

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. jobs and the economy. front and center. preview of the january jobs report and what it could mean for your money. a man who build a brand empire and sold it, martin franklin is here to share his thoughts on the consumer. oil prices. and much more straight ahead. >> showdown in new hampshire. hillary clinton and bernie sanders take the gloves off in the final debate before next week's primary. for the gop donald trump still

on top. but marco rubio is making a move. politico ben white is here to take us inside the numbers. >> it's super bowl weekend. >> my fellow americans. >> a look how private jets are scoring big in a breakdown of the big game as the second hour of "squawk box" kicks off right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york city. this is "squawk box". welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. the futures out at this hour ahead of the big jobs number we'll get at 8:30. dow looks like it will open up higher. all of that could change at 8:30 when we do get the labor number. wti crude trading at 32.02.

some football players did that too. >> they did. in our headlines this morning you've heard many companies complain about the negative impact of the strong u.s. dollar but there has been some relief at least this week. the dollar index slumped 3%. that's its biggest weekly loss since 2009. it comes as the expectations of fed rate hikes gets scaled back because of a weaker than expected economy. a bidding war to nfl's thursday night football package. apple, amazon, are expected to bid. internal revenue service computers are back and running. irs says a problem with a computer there preventled its system from accepting filed returns. that problem has been fixed and it appeared to be a hardware failure. >> less than 90 minutes away from the number of the month. always the number of the month. the january employment report. which has become more critical amid signs of a soft patch in

the economy. steve liesman joins us with more. we've talked about this at the top of the 6:00. first we talked about the economy and the fed. >> fixed everything. it was a great hour. >> we talked all about the stock market and whether it has anything to do with the economy. >> this is the weird thing. you don't know what the number will be. you know how the market, what it looks for. this is the most complicated report. very difficult to read whether it comes in strong or it comes in weak. here's some of the problem. 185,000 for january. everybody on the street, most people on the street believe job growth will weaken from 300,000 of last month. will the weaker number signal a down shifter. a little give back in the last hour a reversion to the mean. add to that conflicting leading signals on jobs and a number tough predict. one it comes out equally tough to predict how the market will react. here's the strong stuff that we

had. adp adjusted. recent trend. three month average job growth totally unexpected. claims a little softer but still suggesting over strong payroll. warmer weather and that's helped out. stronger construction employment. here's the weak stuff that's out there with the red light. ism services, manufacturing. challenger layoffs. it was above trend. long term trend suggests we shouldn't be doing near 200,000 we should do 150. and some give back from december and a strong manufacturing slump. here's the most complicated scenario. modest job growth that suggests that raises questions whether job growth is weakening at the same time because it's a separate survey a declining unemployment rate and strong wages that put pressure on the fed to hike. can you imagine that? let's say you did a 150 which is near my estimate but a four nine

on the unemployment rate. that's a head scratcher. >> are we at zero for another rate hike? >> yeah. depending how you read the probabilities, pretty much price one out for this year. the gap between the fed and market could not be greater and hopefully close that gap maybe next week when janet yellen talks. >> to confirm that zero we'll probably have a crappie number. >> yeah. >> it's evident that there's something rotten in denmark. >> i have to tell you, what's been happening with jobs has been counter to the other economic data that's out there. >> the participation rate. >> if i had one i would go with the job numbers over the gdp. 07 we did in the fourth quarter and averaged 300,000 jobs for the quarter that's out of whack. most what i see is the jobs number does a better job of

capturing temporary economic growth. >> stick around. >> there's a brilliant man sitting across. it's you. that's you. >> great entrepreneur. >> he really is. >> this is a man who has his finger on the pulse of the consumer. we're talking about martin franklin. he's the chair n of j-- chairma jarden corporation. the list goes on and on. >> nice. >> jarden was recently bought by rubber maid in a deal valued at over $15 million. you've been coming on for years with us. i think of you as a buyer not a seller. what happened this time around? >> i'm sort of a merger as opposed to a seller because i'm rolling a significant piece of my own investment of the company into the new brand business.

but we felt it was the right time. we're in a strong place in our business. the business in terms of being market leaders in niche markets not having a lot of overlap. we felt it was a very good fit. and scale is very important. the big retailers are asking for more and more efficiencies. there's enormous synergy opportunities. our approach to market on brands was about the same. so when mike approached me, we had a good conversation and i was sort of -- the chemistry was good. >> as you mentioned you're rolling a big part of your money into this. you're sticking around with the board? >> i'll sit on the board. we'll help wherever we're asked. we know our place. the new management will be in charge and we're going back them. >> do you look at this as one chapter over and now we'll see

you go off and do this in some other place we haven't thought of yet. >> i'm involved in two other public companies and they got a lot of potential in their own right and free up some time for me to do that. i got kids that are getting into interesting investing ages. i want to do things with them. there's a lot of exciting things out there from my perspective. >> we talk about what a difficult market it's been but rubber maid shares have come down since this deal was announced. >> some of it is the nervousness about transactional companies and the whole credit market. the reality for newell they will have a great investment when they do this transaction. the stock will recover. it will probably -- i'm not a market prognosti krrch aprognos.

>> you have a good view of what's happening with the consumer and the overall economy. what can you tell how are you brands are leaving the shelves. >> it's about mix that we look at. the consumer is relatively healthy in the markets that we're in. certainly healthier than you feel if you looked at the stock market. whether the stock market and the momentum can overtake consumer confidence i don't know but at the moment consumer confidence as you know is a high that's higher than average. if you take the price of gasoline in the last year you had $1.90 of benefit if you use an average of 1,000 gallons, make 50 grand a year that's a 6% increase of money in your pocket. the reality is there's a lot of money that is falling into consumers pockets. whether that goes right away into consumer spend cigareting

thing. whether it's one month, six months or one year you have a healthy consortium. >> can you tell at what price brand they are coming in? >> snow trumps economy every time. >> gloves. baseball gloves. >> baseball gloves. line versus bait. line versus bait, bait versus rod and reels. if we see more rod and bait and a slow down in rod and reels that's impacting the consumer. >> what's the fishing indicator? >> selling a lot of everything in fishing business at the moment ate good thing. so our fish business is healthy. we also got a healthy line business. we feel pretty good in the basic

areas where the economy is and i wouldn't want to be an oil company now but outside of that it's all about that. >> you mentioned we're not sure if this decline in stock market, worries, things we're focused on if that catches up withsume confidence. how long does that take that cycle? >> i couldn't guess. i think at the end of the day the economy and employment full employment pretty close to full employment now. low interest rates that will say there for a while. the outlook for the consortiume pretty good. >> worth noting consumer confidence figures have been unaffected by what's happening in the stock market. we sit here every day and obsess over what's happening and that's not true of the average american. there's a wealth effect but it doesn't necessary shine the sentiment and may happen over time. >> into walmart or, you know,

target to go buy something i don't think they care what, you know, interest rates are going to do next month or what the jobs report says. they care about if they have a job and if they have a job, they will feel better about life. if they are saving money. >> interest rates, it helps tremendously if you can refinance your mortgage at a lower rate. i tried it yesterday. >> already going through the system. those monies, those annuities flowing through on a month to month basis. you have increases in minimum wage across state about 3%. something like that. all that money is disposable money which tends to get spent at low-income. >> housing prices might mean more to consumers. >> for sure. that's the difference between what's going on, the stock market weakness has not been driven. >> 401(k)s but you continue

follow those. >> have you been out there hiring. what's the job market like and i'll pre-empt the question from joe how does the rise in minimum wage hurt your bottom line affect the bottom line. >> it doesn't really. we don't have a lot of minimum wage earners in the company. we're not in the service sector in the same way. what i will say is poaching and competition for jobs is getting tighter so you have to be more competitive. we're very careful to keep motivation and our incentive plans long enough so we create a place for people to stay. people who are laid off are likely to find jobs than before. >> there's a big piece, title of it is "killing the working class at walmart." walmart closing 150 stores

affecting 10,000 employees and they shut the unprofitable stores and some stores have become unprovable. when a store close's minimum wage loss is zero. activists should have seen that coming. >> i think it has an effect. the question is one of cost benefit in the economy because he also said it gives consumers more money. >> 3%. been pushed to -- >> oakland minimum wage is going to 12.55 and walmart opened stores in 2005 and closing stores. >> there was a paper about what happened in seattle and so far they've seen no big effect. preliminary paper. it's on its way to 15. they did a -- >> anyway, coming up -- thank you. thank you. coming up -- thank you, andrew. >> you're welcome.

>> the final debate before new hampshire is in the books. a look at last night's -- do we have to? really? and what we can expect from next week's primary for both the dems and gop. here's a look at the futures at this hour. "squawk box" will be right back. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.

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welcome back to "squawk box". shares of linkedin plunging.

giving weak first quarter guidance. that over shadowed the beat on top and bottom lines. silver lake is making half a billion dollar investment in semantic. it's announcing plans to buy back more shares and unveiled a $4 share dividend. shares are gaining about 9%. >> when we return highlights from last night's democratic debate. plus is tim cook considering making apple services available on android. we'll have that story next. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: today's aflac trivia questions. what is the world's most visited country? the answer when cnbc's box continues.

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it's great. that's what's so heartwrenching. i hope they get back to normal in paris. 9:00 to 5:00 mac reporting apple considering to bring their stofrs android. a statement tim cook. apple music on android for a way for the company to test their service on non-apple made hardware. there may be icloud and ipay. >> hillary clinton and bernie sanders went head-to-head on a fiery debate last night. this is the last time the two will meet before the new hampshire primary. >> kid gets caught with marijuana that kid has a police record. a wall street executive destroys the economy, $5 billion settlement to the government, no

criminal record. that is what power is about. that is what corruption is about. and that is what has to change in the united states of america. >> i did go on the speaking circuit. i spoke to heart doctors, i spoke to the american camping association, i spoke to auto dealers and yes i spoke to firms on wall street. they wanted me to talk about the world what my experience had been as secretary of state. >> joining us right now is ben white politico chief economic correspondent and cnbc contributor. ben the question that i ask when we talked to harwood in the last hour you see hillary attacking, given she's right there next to bernie she's had to attack -- like a contest who can be more progressive last night. >> yeah. >> is it rhetoric, or it is real? >> i think for hillary clinton it's mostly rhetoric when it comes to wall street financial services. i mean she has some tough policies targeting risk rather

than size but she's not going to move to bernieglass-stegal. . >> will she turn back? it's a national move. you she might be less apt to talk wall street and bashing the banks but she won't move her policies very much. >> you reported this morning, maybe you reported last night but i read it in your morning paper this monday there were a number of events scheduled wall street events that she cancelled. >> postponed. >> that was the question. she ultimately needs that money. >> that's correct. >> how does she balance this?

>> it's very difficult. she needs the money. bernie is raising ton of money in small donations. she needs to keep pace. she can't not do these wall street fundraisers. she's going to do them -- >> becomes after -- >> after new hampshire. she will do one in boston with a bane executive which you can't do right before new hampshire. she did blackrock last week. who know when they will do it in bane. in iowa she went to a big fundraiser before the iowa caucus. >> bernie won't win? >> no, he's not. he'll win new hampshire. >> will it kill her to say, bernie, back off. not every wall street executive is a criminal. it's not all corruption. >> right. >> do you agree with that? >> you're not going to get that from me. >> she could do that and then

during the general she could at least look reasonable and look like she's not always blowing in the wind based on the latest populace sentiment. ted cruz, i don't believe is going to be the nominee either. so invoking those two to say -- the most normal people don't think that every person on wall street belongs in jail. >> i know you have high hopes for her. >> i did the other day when she said that's what the parmarket bears. i spoke to cardiologists. >> joe, you should be giving her the answer because she has no answer for it and that's a good one. one thing she can do is go out

there and say i went to wall street -- >> i look at bernie, just cram it. >> did some of that last night. >> it's an artful smear. >> she was tough on that. she will be tough on that. she can't go out there. what bernie said last night was the -- the business model on wall street -- >> the guy who won't be a nominee i don't know why you have to dance to his -- >> he's been dancing with elizabeth warren for four years. >> i'm suggesting it may be a problem but i'm saying the world has -- >> she's not going say wall street is based on fraud but will don't say i'll crack down the banks i'll be tougher on prosecutions. people want to see bankers in jail. that's the way it is. >> i don't know if that's the way it is.

maybe certain people. >> there's an extreme amount -- >> anybody left there? >> who is going to -- >> behind-the-scenes. >> take my advice? >> yes. stock sales, a lot of aggravate people. >> could politico move farther along right?

among the stories that are front and center automaker toyota is raising its sales. and mcgraw-hill will be changing its name. it will be known as s&p global. you guys like that name better? marginally. >> mcgraw-hill has a good brand, text books. they want to do s&p. >> someone in california just left $63 million on the table. california lot offeree said

nobody showed up with the winning ticket. there's a twist. california man has filed a lawsuit saying he did submit the winning ticket but was told it was too damaged to be processed. >> i don't need to hear the rest of it. i'm on his side. >> i don't know. >> then to have the winning ticket and to be told no you can't have your money. >> doing powerball, we saw people getting tickets and taking pictures on their phone of the ticket so you always have it if you lost the ticket which i thought was a good deal. i don't know if it would qualify. i saw people doing that. >> they take pictures because they are in a work pool and you have to prove to the other people in the pool what your numbers are so if you win because somebody else has a number you don't steal it. >> that did not occur to me. >> the pool is here and that's what they did. >> you don't even play the

lottery. >> the marijuana market is red hot. according to a report -- to think you have a chance of winning what your smoking. according to a report released by two industry groups legal sales of cannabis grew to $5.4 billion in 2015. that's up from the year before. demand is expected to be strong. sales are expected to top $7.4 billion. sales of legal marijuana by 2020 will be $22 billion. >> we are less than an hour away from the release of the jobs report for january. this month's report will give us an indication whether volatility in financial market reflect trends in the real market. joining us fidelity director of

asset and ubs chief strategist investment. this is one markets will be watching closely. mike i'm not sure if there's a good scenario. if things look like they are hotter than expected, people worry the fed is back in it. >> wasn't goldilocks report. one strong enough to suggest the economic expansion remains on track and reason concerns we had about this growth scare is just that. we don't want it so strong it trig terrifies fed into a corner where they have to think about do we need to address concerns about employment costs eventually pushing through. we'll get a decent jobs report but i think it's largely validate the fed will stay on hold. >> is there ever a point where we could deal with that? the economy is doing really well. jobs are better than expected. unemployment rate is lower than expected. that should be positive news. >> let's face it. we had mixed data here.

manufacturing side has been soft. we certainly have seen other evidence it's bleeding to other parts of the economy. we're looking for in the employment report validation that some of these other reports are unjustified. >> lisa, what do you think about the markets in terms of stocks versus bonds versus cash what should be people be sitting with now? >> i think it's bean really tough month and we're starting to think about what happens over the next year, and then it comes back to what, in fact, is going to happen with the u.s. economy and the global economy. and the jobs report will certainly give us some indication of what's going to be happening going forward. i think it's going to be a pretty good u.s. economic story. not maybe as good as last year or the year before, but still a solid u.s. showing. >> isn't that an argument for buying stocks at these low prices? >> yeah. i think it is. >> i would like your job.

ass asset allocation. cash is zero. no. stocks. did i get it? >> i think that the big drag on the market has been not necessarily the u.s. data, but what's been reflected into the u.s. data from abroad. >> is your asset allocation includes whether your global or international. >> yes. >> that might be a harder job. in terms of assets equity is a good idea somewhere, would you think. >> yes. >> what are the best areas. here? >> you know, this has been theoretically considered the best house in the neighborhood. it's the best house in the united states. there are other markets that are also pretty interesting. believe it or not i do think europe is still interesting. and i think that -- i'm always interested in markets that have been beaten up pretty badly

where the fundamentals may be stabilizing. >> where is that? >> maybe emerging markets. >> are you talking russia? are you talking brazil? china? >> if we think about the role that the energy markets has played in emerging markets, i would have a view that energy is solo at this point that you have to start considering what, in fact, is happening in the u.s. economy, what's happening in the european economy, and then, of course, what's happening in the chinese economy. and if the u.s. is okay not spectacular but okay and europe is okay, not spectacular, and china which has, in my opinion already had a hard landing, the question is next year is it worse than this year or is it starting to stabilize? and i think if it starts to stabilize i'm not wildly bullish on emerging markets but i think

if your thesis is you buy low, sell high, right that's when you have to start thinking about that. >> we made the point all along you have to separate china's economy from china's markets. >> yes. i'm not saying -- that is not what i'm saying. i'm not saying buy the chinese market. i think the chinese economy affects all of our markets in many different ways and we've seen that in sort of vivid detail over the last month and probably the last year. but, if the fundamentals in china are starting -- we are definitely not bulls on china. but i am not a super constructive on the chinese economy but, again, what i focus on is what is happening with the chinese fundamentals. >> mike, when it comes to the united states you think that the selloff has been a little over done. you like prices here?

>> i do. i think it is overdone. we have to wait for a couple of things to happen before we get some sense of stabilization. we need to see confirmation on the economic data this is temporary. secondly we need to see some stabilization in energy prices and the dollar. two of the big head winds is the fact we just had lower energy and stronger dollar and that's been a pretty stiff head wind. other two things we need, we need to see earnings coming out. which are coming in better than expected. lastly we do need to see reaffirmation by policymakers. we saw it by the european central bank, and bank of japan and we're waiting for the fed give us affirmation they will have a measured approach to economic policy. joe said something about it's pretty easy to stay away from cash. what's interesting we had our investor survey and we surveyed our clients. interesting. our clients are basically saying they would only recommend for

the next generation only 14% of them would say you want to hold a large cash balance. they are giving good advice. 90% of our clients are holding as high or higher cash balances they had during the financial crisis. we're seeing a conflicted investor. >> there are economists 100% cash. >> this isn't one of them. >> if you believe that what we said and we had a good pull back already versus what the fundamentals are for the u.s. versus the rest of the world. when you do the simplistic things that are good for financial, low interest rates, 2% growth, there's a lot of things when the noise goes away it should be a relatively fri d friendly time. >> you need a pick up in the credit markets. that gives the confidence that will drive the equity markets as well. >> mike and lisa thank you both for coming in today.

coming up the super bowl means big parties, snacks in stadiums. also private jets. robert frank shows us how the super rich plan to get to the big game. robert. >> reporter: the private jet industry, the super bowl is the biggest event of the year. we'll take you inside a $26 million ride to the big game. hot wings included. come aboard.

to be the busiest super bowl yet for private jet companies. robert frank has more. he joins us live from at the time -- teterboro airport in new jersey. >> reporter: this is the single biggest event of the year. more than 1,000 private jets expected to descend on the bay area for the big game and private jet goers expected to spend over $75 million on charters and single seats. now for the private jet companies this is also a big marketing day to win new clients and win the loyalty of existing

clients so they are throwing parties. they are taking limos to and from the planes. booking restaurants. getting tickets to the game for clients. take a listen. >> we want to make sure that their experience, their entire travel experience from the time they leave the home to flying on the aircraft to helping them navigate the san francisco area and getting them home safely. >> reporter: now all that service will cost you. you want to charter a plane from the carolinas around $70,000 one way. you are chartering out of denver it's about 35 grand. now we're aboard a flex jet 350 challenger. this is about a $26 million plane. to charter this plane normally would be around $90,000, but the company is going all out with food, flex jet putting a big spread in front of us.

hiring spreshl cecial caters. flying out of the carolinas they will stock your plane with ribs and all kinds of other good stuff. so this is the way the wealthy like to tailgate, guys. i don't have an iop. >> you don't have an iop. present company excluded the rich really are -- that's why -- they are different because they have a lot more money. >> yeah. >> you look at those prices for a round trip, that's when you -- that's a difference. serious money. not $400,000 year guy flying first class. enough money to have your own

jet. $30,000 for a round trip. you can fly commercial probably four people for maybe 2,000 or 1500. who can say i don't need that 28,000 if you have kids going to college. if you want to do anything like that. who can say i don't need that. rich people. >> then there's one other distinction that wasn't made in that segment, the netflix group. the netflix group and then those who own the plane. >> i fantasize to have one of those little card. i can't. that's okay. i'm happy with who i am. >> present company excluded. >> from the private plane, you said it eight times. i hear you. i hear you honey. denver broncos and carolina

panthers set to go head-to-head. second super bowl ever to pit the number one scoring offense against the number one scoring defense. joining us now ryan manning senior staff writer. if you watch what denver's defense did to tom brady you might think they have a chance. but tom brady doesn't move like cam newton. am i wrong in thinking this will be a blow-out? >> i think there's a good chance it could tilt that way. you're right. it's not just that cam newton can do things tom brady can't but the whole carolina offense the motion they use, the blocking schemes, they read the defensive ends and decide what they are doing before they decide. so, they confuse defenses with what they do on the line in such a way you can actually get too aggressive and by the time you're in the backfield cam newton is three yards past you. >> 30 yards. >> if he wants to, yeah. >> i've been saying this today,

at the beginning of the season carolina looks pretty good this year. middle of the season carolina is good this year. by tend of the season, they were dominating especially in the playoffs. did you see how good the cardinals looked. >> the panthers haven't trailed for a single second in the post-season. that's amazing. despite what we thought this team would be. >> if you're a denver fan all your chips on peyton. he wasn't even the starting quarterback for four or five games because he didn't know if his foot was okay. >> the denver coach says peyton looks in practice the best he's looked all season. >> 40 years old. >> how much of that is coach speak and giving your players confidence and how much of that is the benefit of guesting an extra week off before the super bowl. i don't know. but the other half of the equation is we talk about the carolina offense. carolina has an excellent defense and they are going to give denver some of the same

problems that new england defense was able to in the afc championship. >> what's the spread? >> last i saw was six points in favor of the panthers. >> i don't know. remember when denver played seattle, was it? >> a couple of years ago in the super bowl. >> they didn't play them. >> they were present. >> they were present. not going to happen again s-it? >> i was told we were going to do predictions. we have screens made. >> i said denver because -- you know my daughter loves denver because she met tim tebow. she became a denver fan at that time. i don't really care. >> do we have a screen? we do. >> that's not my pick. i want them to win i'm pulling for denver for the underdog but i think carolina will win. >> for becky, do we have a screen in >> i'm rooting for denver. same reason for you.

the old guy. >> because we're the same age. >> at any point older people to win. i can't help it. >> you asked me for a pick yesterday. >> who did you say >> you'll see it right here. the yankees. manchester united. no i said broncos. my sister lives in denver. >> that's right. >> i have to root for the family team. >> i just want lots of people to watch. no. i think it's going to be carolina. i like colorado, denver. >> what about your ad. >> you have a big super bowl ad. >> we do. first time we've run in the super bowl. >> i think this is the year of cam newton. >> yeah. it's weird to think that this team but for that weird loss to the falcons late in the season,

they are undefeated. >> mvp and heisman. >> college championship. >> and isaac newton or fig newton. just remember cam newton. could be a great story. >> absolutely. >> thank you. >> good to see you. >> when we come back martin franklin will talk about jobs, the state of the economy and that super bowl ad. right now things are relatively flat. "squawk box" will be right back. it's a fact. kind of like social media equals anti-social. hey guys, i want you to meet my fiancée, denise. hey. good to meet you dennis. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. on on

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. welcome back. less get some final thoughts from our guest host. martin frank lynn is here, jarden executive chairman. we should show a little video. you have your first super bowl. you're paying $5 million. how big of a decision was this for you? >> you know, we decided quite a long time ago we would do it. it's just part of a continuous growth in investment. >> to grow the brand. when you do an ad like this we'll get this number of sales. >> no. we decided to take at that long view on how we want to grow the brand. we think that the quality of the product the breadth of the line has gotten to a point where we want to grow it again. we doubled it since we bought it. we're in far end to doubling the double. and this is just going to put the brand further on the map and

widen audience. >> did you consider at all the dude or -- you know what i'm talking about? >> yeah. few movies that it came from. we went with a lovely outside in a nice sort of lighter, a little humorous. >> jeff is naked in the bathtub. >> maybe not. >> they throw the marmot in and he's swinging around. >> ours is very cute and cuddly. >> he's more the "caddyshack" gopher. >> you're involved in burger king and 3g. now that we know what 3g is capable can you 3g-ify these other businesses. other companies that don't have 3g skills but say i need to 3g myself now. to reduce the cost.

>> my exposure is what i've seen. what i've seen first rate operators. they are very thoughtful. focused on the right thing which is people. they are about talent development. i think if you take that discipline and focus you put it in any business, it's going to be an improvement. and so it's not all about cost-cutting and things that people talk about and focus on. it goes deeper than that. they are very holistic the way they look at their business. >> what's the chance next year you'll do another big deal and we'll see you back in the headlines? >> we'll do something at some point. >> good tease. love to have you back. when we return, special coverage of the month, the big number, the january jobs report is over 30 minutes away. our panel will help count us down plus instant analysis right after. and futures right now and then kind of right there all day long and depending on what the number

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>> it's game time.

wall street super bowl. jobs report now just 30 minutes away. >> could one number be a game changer for the fed. stay tuned find out. move over broncos and panthers hawks and doves are taking the field today. >> the countdown to kick-off begins right now. >> who is janet yellen. >> no idea. >> janet yell en. >> janet yellen? ♪ >> announcer: >> none of us really know. i think that's what they were saying is who really is janet yellen. is she a dove. is she a hawk? is she in charge? i think they all knew exactly who she was but none of us really, really do know who is janet yellen. i think that was the point.

welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business world wild. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. we're counting down the employment report. likely added 180,000 jobs a big drop from the 292,000 december payroll number. unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5%. we have an all-star panel here to get us ready. i ask myself who is mark zandi. who are you, really? are you and adp numbers cruncher, an economist. an enabler? >> i try to be in the middle. >> who are you? >> andrew has a recap. >> i have an idea who you are. we do. we know andrew. >> i think i do. >> to know me is to love me. >> that's very true. the news right now, citigroup says the markets are in well

oiled death spiral. the firm's analyst point to four things driving what they call a negative feedback loop resilient u.s. dollar. lower commodity prices. weaker trade and capital flows and declining emerging market growth. so if you want to get scared there it is. the dollar -- let's show you what's going on in oil. wti trading around $33 for now. becky. >> all right. let's get a check on some stocks on the move including linkedin. shares plunging after they offered weak quarterly guidance. they warn on headwinds in their ads. markets outside of north america. that stock is down 30%. tableau software getting hit hard. revenue growth slowed. that's a key barometer for the company. that stock down 40%. private equity firm virtually lake making half a billion

investment in semantic. palace to issue a $4 a share dividend. that stock is up 10%. shares of arcelormittal sliegd. the stock down just over 6%. >> time now to begin the final countdown on the big january jobs report. joining us christian weller. and professor at the university of massachusetts boston. douglas aiken former director of the congressional budget office. but we're not going to blame him for everything that the place does. kate moore chief investment strategist at jpmorgan and mark zandi. mark, because you have that report that we always look at

two days before the big number, last month -- >> adp. >> i'm a businessman too. >> last month you sort of -- we got a heads up on what the number would be based on that. this month not as good. are things slowing a little from last month's pace? >> no. 200 k is what we've been getting on a consistent basis for four solid year. ian it's an amazing job gain. other sectors are weakening. energy, manufacturing. but we're seeing strong growth elsewhere in the economy. no slowing as far as i can see in the job market. >> i feel pretty good about the labor market. there are things that i'm getting itchy about in the global market. it's not in the u.s. not really when it comes to job growth and expansion.

i think if there were significant weakness in the u.s. economy, it would start to show up across multiple different sectors not just manufacturing and industrial oriented sectors around the labor market. a decent print here today will confirm that we're in good shape for kind of like high single ones or up to 2% gdp growth in the u.s. >> when we had you on you represent the left really well. i'm won'ting at your organization, is it -- is everybody backing bernie sanders at this point? are you yourself, do you back the economic policies he's espousing? you got to be honest with me right now. are you too far right or do you back him? >> i can't speak for any one of our organization. we're a nonpartisan think tank organization. i've not made up my mind who i will support. i think most important part while we have good jobs growth numbers, we need to be mindful we have a struggling middle

class and there's a range of politicians running for president who are trying to address those struggles and continue the momentum in terms of income gains and in terms of job gains and i think that's the policies that most voters will be looking for during the cycle. >> just to push a little bit more on that. do you think that the policies espoused by a democratic socialist would be more effective in helping the people that aren't moving forward in this economy? is that the type of action that's necessary to move the needle for people? >> i'm not a big fan of putting labels on anything. i think the policies we need is sort of a government that works for everybody, policies that will invest the infrastructure and education. but also that help to make sure that as we have a growing economy, strong productivity growth that comes down to the average american. and that means a higher minimum wage, that means more ways for people to join a union.

protecting benefits both on the retirement side as well as the health insurance side. again, you will find candidates on both sides, both republicans and democrats who will speak in favor of some of these policies. this is not a partisan issue. >> the first thing that i see we need a private-sector that is unencumbered allowed to move in a global economy to compete better and to compete in this country and, therefore, provide private-sector jobs and a government that's created to help the priority sector along. i don't know if my first choice would be the g word for government. >> the biggest thing we need is to really get the private-sector back in the game. this recovery has been characterized by weak capital expenditures. we haven't seen the traditional dynamic where the cap x boom drives everything along. you got a couple of quarters that look like 4%, 5% and we haven't had a pop like that in

this recovery. we need to haeng the game plan, mo move away from temporary targeted policies and do some structural reforms that will give the private-sector a chance to flourish. >> i want to jump in. i don't necessarily disagree with doug that the lack of capital expenditures is one of the major problems we have failed to address. but i think what's holding back investments in capital expenditures is still a middle class burdened with high debt levels, feels very insecure, is not spending at the rates that we are accustomed to and there aren't that many reasons for business to spend more money. so addressing -- this massive and persistent inequality in economic uncertainty that's hafrp terrifyi hampering the middle class will lead -- >> just to push back. >> changes in reforms. up to most -- during the recession and most of the

economic recovery it was about getting the recovery into gear. it was mostly about short term stimulus and other things to get the economy moving. we're close to full employment. we have to think about policies that helps the economy. things like immigration reform, that's critical to longer term growth. infrastructure spending. that's critical to long term economic growth. helping support investments in education and training, those are critical long term economic growth. not about short term policies it's about long term. >> you were saying something, doug? >> mark is right. by definition, we don't want to be looking to policies that trying to manage the business cycle or anything like that. you want to look at the supply side, give the economy a chance to grow. focus on those things. mark's list is part of the list. you go to look at budgetary sanity. one thing that's troubling on the left it's a discussion in a

fantasy land. under the current projections the last year of the second term of whoever is elected president will have a trillion dollar deficit. hillary clinton is talking about spending $1.2 trillion on top of that. bernie sanders we can even add up the numbers. that's not episcopalian realistic. and there's nothing about that that will then middle class. >> the other side is also talking about massive tax cuts. but i would add to the list that mark laid out that we do have to have regulatory policies. we do have to address ceo pay and share repurchases. >> where the discussion is counter productive, i do think the discussion around wall street. it's an easy whipping boy and part of the american experience. go back to alexander hamilton they were whipping popular wall street. that's a mistake. it happens on both side both democrats and republicans are

doing that. clearly wall street screwed up. no doubt about it. but the changes and reforms that have been put in place are very substantive. not like these aren't big changes. one of the reasons the recovery has been so slow is because of the changes to financial system, the higher capitalization that the banking system has to grasple with. >> going back to the cap x cycle. not just wall street not willing to finance but the willingness of different industries to expand their balance sheets and spend cash and react to what was a very, very dramatic and traumatic time for them. so there's a sentiment shift that needs to take place. some may be inspired by different policy but some has to get, i think, just critical distance from a difficult point in the economy. >> but you would think -- we were out seven years at this point or eight years from the height of the great recession. so you would think that if we have now the critical distance where corporations are starting to really invest in new infrastructure and new

equipment, new factories and that's really missing and i think we're robbing ourselves from the long term if we don't get that investment. we've seen very lackluster productivity growth. something else is amiss in the story. for me it's the struggling middle class, consumers are weary and companies know that and aren't willing to spend the money as they have in the past. >> all right. doug, we got to go. we'll take a quick break. for the kind of things you suggest do you have -- which two or three candidates on either side have -- which candidates on either side have the right, you know, the right remedy for this stuff? >> i want to just echo what mark said. sort of the rhetoric on attacking wall street is something -- >> you're not giving me names. which candidates in the race. >> i think he said mark. >> which candidate have the

right stuff? >> zandi. i vote for mark. simple. >> anyway -- >> if you want to take it in a bad way. more from our jobs panel in just a bit. >> when we come back some of the best jobs on the planet aren't even on this planet. mary thompson has a special report on jobs in the space industry next. "squawk box" will be right back. here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey?

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♪ light piano today i saw a giant. it had no arms, but it welcomed me. (crow cawing)

it had no heart, but it was alive. (train wheels on tracks) it had no mouth, but it spoke to me. it said, "rocky mountaineer: all aboard amazing". january unemployment rate 15 minutes away. things are look down. joining us now is mary thompson live from the johnson space center in houston looking at jobs that are out of this world. mary. >> reporter: hey there, andrew. i'm standing in front of a test version of the orion spacecraft. it's used for training here at nasa but the real version will be used to take astronauts to mars. the reason we're here at nasa is since 2007 nasa has been holding

an online cattle call for would be astronauts every couple of years. it's accepting online applications through february 18th for people who think they have the right stuff. after that they will sift through thousands of applications and choose eight to 14 candidates. what does it nene have the right stuff? for starters having the right degree. >> we're looking for a degree in the right field, science, math or engineering. >> reporter: at a minimum she says a candidate also needs three years professional experience along with some other key qualities. >> certainly being a good leader, a good follower, teamwork, all those things go together. >> reporter: ability to function in extreme environments also helpful with nasa often drawing from the military, aviation and medicine. and helping nasa to find the right candidates from a pool of well over 6,000 current and former astronauts. >> i think they are sitting

there looking and trying to assess would i want to fly with this person. >> reporter: the chosen few train for two years learning russian, working with simulators and virtual reality labs. they don't leave the ground for another five to eight years. now those years in between the flights of course are spent on the ground, basically the astronauts will support others who are in space. so what does it pay to have the right stuff? astronauts will earn anywhere from $66,000 to $140,000 a year depending on their experience. back to you. >> you would be going crazy. >> thank you very much. volkswagen is delaying the reporting of its annual earnings results as well as its annual meeting because of questions that still surround its diesel emission issue. the automaker says it will announce new dates as soon as possible as soon as it issue as

report. it was hoping to have an annual meeting on april 21st. >> andrew, you're right. i'm so frustrated with the "new york times". this is about nbc universal. >> it is. >> old media showing new tricks. >> beautiful story. >> lovely story. >> this is by james stewart. this is good. if i can just, can you tape everything else? >> what's going on. >> cut it out -- >> story about comcast. >> it's in the "new york times" which i won't look at. coming up -- they got 18,000 word story on concussion for super bowl weekend. somebody's got to do it.

welcome back to "squawk box". among the stocks that we're watching, jc penney said it's sploerg the saefl its home office build in plano, texas. it would lease back that real estate. tyson food shares jumping the pre-market trading.

poultry producer beat estimates. added 50 million shares to it's buy back program but cut its revenue forecast. coca-cola gra extra up graded to neutral. i wonder what they are thinking there. coming up, it's almost here the report of the day, the month maybe the year the government's read on jobs. we'll do it straight ahead as we head to a break. take a look at u.s. equity futures. look at the dow. we're back in a moment.

♪ ♪ it's the final countdown we are now just a few minutes away from the big jobs report. consensus is calling for 185,000 job additions last month. unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5%. right now it's time for our final predictions from our all-star panel. let's go quickly around the horn.

rick tell us what you're looking for. >> i wanted to go with 911,000 because 911, obvious reasons. 411 would have been good. we need more information. i decided on 211. 211 is my call. >> a call for unemployment or just the number? >> no i think it's a metric that doesn't tell us what we think it does. if you want to talk about the big u 6 that's different. no is my answer. >> christian, how about you? >> i would say 215,000 is the jobs number. unemployment rate holding steady at 5, possibly moving up a little bit because people are re-entering the labor market. >> doug? >> i'm right with christian. 215,000. they've unemployment rate staying flat. >> kate, how about you? >> this is not a perfect official forecast, i would say 172. it's coming in lower than expectations but still solid. basically a reflection of what we're getting from companies in

their fourth quarter earnings and momentum we were seeing in hiring. good but not outstanding. that's the good news for equity markets who would be scared off. >> mark >> 185. some weather payback. we got 300 k last month. 5% unemployment. we can get a big increase for lots of reasons. >> what kind of increase? >> .3 or .4 of a percent. there's some technical factors. >> 159, the ism dragged my model down. payback from december. my error rate is plus or minus 54,000 in the past 12 months. >> 54. >> i'm sticking with the model. i got killed. before that i had a couple within 20s. >> is adp in your number? >> one fifth of my model. the ism manufacturing and employment indices in terms of

indices the claims numbers and last three months of the trend. >> is there something you weight more? >> i worked with weighting. haven't fought a weighting that helps me. >> rick, we've been talking about what the market would or would not like to see. do you want to weigh in what the stocks and bond market want to see? >> i can't answer that. what i can say is if we get a strong number i think many are going scrutinize if there's any upside on the stocks. the real notion of no matter what the fed does at this point, many believe that if we're headed into a recession it's baked into the cake and would have been baked into the cake whether the december rate hike occurred or not. looking at the strength of this number pursuant to fed future tightening the direction of stocks could go to investors psycpe. >> what about a weak number >> most people would think a weak number would get a better response at least for the first couple of hours. >> really? >> in terms of interest rates, i

don't think it makes a difference. i think overseas rates and foreign exchange of more important. >> i like his idea of a weaker number. >> now for the big number, we go the labor department. can you hear the countdown. hampton the number, please? >> reporter: 151,000. january nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000. the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%. average hourly earnings increased by . 5 of a percent. monthly increase in wages highest since january of 2015. private-sector jobs in january added about 158,000. the revisions, november up by 28,000, 252 to 280 was the in the difference of the previously reported numbers.

december the big upside however revised downward 292 to 262. job gains in january, retail plus 58,000. food service and drinking places up by 47,000. health care 37,000. new jobs and manufacturing coming through with 29,000 additional jobs. on the down side, private educational services losing 39,000 jobs, transportation and warehousing down by 30,000. labor force participation rate 62.7%. the u 6 unchanged at 9.9%. this is also the report where we get the benchmark revisions. march 2015 is the benchmark month. essentially the year-over-year change was 206,000 jobs, fewer than had been previously reported that's down about .10

of a percent looking at the benchmark revisions over to decade the average is .3 of a percent. bottom line very little impact as far as the benchmark revisions. back to you folks. >> hampton, thank you very much. steve you were the closest. >> einstein said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. the entire thing is based on the idea we did a huge thing last month. you came back. this is the scenario i worried about you have weakening job growth but declining unemployment rate. this is where you scratch your head and say what's going on here? i got to say one thing you want to be careful about, is there's a lot of seasonal adjustment. you had a pop up in december. that could have been seasonal adjustment much one economist wrote a piece that said the el nino effect on weather. on payrolls. he went back and looked at all the el nino januarys and some element to that.

18,000 pop in construction. 57,000 in retail. what does that tell you? does that tell you they didn't fire as many as were expected to be fired. it's not a hiring story it's a nonfiring story. >> all seasonal. i think as you said take the 216 december, take the 150 whatever in january, you average the two and you get 200. nothing has changed. we've been at 200 for four solid years. it's a pretty good report. >> give you one quick figure, in the household survey went up about 409,000. i was telling you at the break i expected some catch up in that because it's been lagging behind. i'm getting that in a second. rick knows that. >> look, the worry, my worry was that the turmoil in the financial markets and global economy are going to hurt the job market. there's no evidence of that in the employment data. >> what worries me --

>> especially the manufacturing numbers. >> we already had a stock market guide, we had the fed on hold. now we get 150 it's like crap. the fed is on hold. now we have a better number that maybe the economy is not bad. they are already on hold you get 150. we don't need 150. we need 210. we want it just right. 250, 150, 300, 100, it's always just right four. always, always. >> four years it's always been just right. >> unemployment rate is falling half a point every single year. we're down 4.9%. we're going -- >> knows what i'm saying. it's always just right for mark. >> this is about as good as it gets. >> absolutely. let's hold the phone. wages up 2.5.

anybody read that walmart article? see here's what's going on. raise minimum wage bottom of the food chain. i want does show up on the wage side. it also shows up on the jobs side. in many ways this should give the fed much more fuel to actually normalize. it's a one off number that's mean reverting and a break out on wages. the end of it, i would suspect you could see much more of this dynamic. i urge everybody to read that piece in the journal in the op-ed today. it explains why the number is doing what is it. pre-opening equities is so far down but truly i would never say it isn't a real market. said real market. if you want to see what's going on -- >> 9:35. >> let's look at these market reaction. stocks are down. dow was down by 80 points below fair value. you're also going to see s&p down by close to 11, nasdaq down

by 30. check out the dollar, the euro is back up to 112. so additional dollar weakness on cementing of the idea that the federal reserve -- >> it was up to 112 before the number. >> rick walk us through the other markets. >> the dollar index before the day was up four now up two. had a little volatility not much. i had us pegged at 112.03. offered at ten. interest rates blurring through all the volatility. suddenly now basically at the exact spot one basis point lower than they were before number. the equities i pegged it down seven they are now down 44. if you look at the ticks, down 41. down 25. so pretty choppy. my guess is the computers are all racing. one ferrari model versus another. >> there should be no change in the equity market.

it was good. it was solid. >> i want to challenge that a little bit and i want to ask your opinion. this four nine, right? you were at five. and there was a sort of uneasy detant. you have to think there's hawks as well as some guys in the center that say we're heading beyond full employment to a tighter labor market. you have the wage growth to really back that up. so this is the scenario i worried about where you have essentially weak job growth, concerns about a weakening economy, but for lack of a better term a force du jur on the fed to react to the declining unemployment rate. >> the fed hasn't made a decision to this point. they will get up to that last moment before they decide. what i would suggest this doesn't show a weakening. we don't get a big bleed through into the real economy. this is actually a confirmation that things are okay. look i think that the doves and

hawk will find something they like and hate about this report but from my perspective as someone who is over weight equities, i still feel comfortable that we'll be in the environment where we can get a little bit of earnings growth. >> more jobs, more money in people's pocket. 62.7 in the inflation rate. i want to get this right. 205,000 folks, 284,000 folks into the workforce. it was 466 last month. three jumps in a row of people coming into the workforce. we don't know if that's new folks coming in to the workforce. unemployment rate declined because in the household. >> this is a good report. >> now you're going to tick him off. >> we're getting two months rock solid. >> throw something in the

wrench. from the fed's perspective, this is an economy that should be -- i'm sorry are there other folks. i'm so sorry. i didn't know. nobody told me. >> it's okay. steve make your point. >> from the fed's perspective this is an economy that should problem do-- producing 175,000 jobs. >> doug, jump in. >> look, i think this is a really strong report. if you throw out the 150, all this says is exactly what we've heard the commentary be. the financial problems have not bled into the real economy. the fed is looking at a 4.9% unemployment rate. longer work weeks. they should look at the essence of this and not the top line number. one thing that surprises me

manufacturing still creating jobs. so that's a big surprising number. >> i would echo exactly what doug said. i think the manufacturing number is very encouraging especially in the face of overseas turmoil and a stronger dollar. i think that's very positive. i think the household numbers are very encouraging. we still have a long way to go especially with this under employment rate. this is good news. i think -- i personally hope the fed will hold off doing anything rash here. >> good news but hold off. throw out the loss and the bulls have a perfect record. >> christian, doug, rick, steve thank you all for joining us for this panel. kate and mark will stick around for the rest of the hour. >> wall street strategist will join us. find out if this report changes his view of the market. check out the dollar this morning. you're watching "squawk box"

here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i think it landed last tuesday. one second it's there. then, woosh, it's gone. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson. [dog bark] trust me, we're dealing with a higher intelligence here.

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. employment report now officially in the books. economy adding 150 now jobs last month. that came in short of consensus. one employment rate falling to 4.1%. average hourly earnings rising by half a percent. joining us now trying to make sense of all this, jeff saut, the chief investment strategist at raymond james. you saw the market go down on this news, sir.

>> i think that's the initial reaction but we're in a bottoming phase, however. you got all the earmarks, short sales since march of '09. more google searches for term of bear market. investment banks telling you to sell everything. i think we're searching for a bottom here. >> and how do you -- sort of the psychology of how to play the fed how do you think they react and therefore how does the market react? >> i said earlier in the year that i would be shocked if the federal reserve raised interest rates four times this year. i think it's once or twice and i think then it's even very reluctantly to do so. >> you think -- you put this -- i don't get how this is good news then. >> in what sense. >> doug had it right. if you drill down and i haven't had a chance to drill down numbers yet because i've been sitting here in the studio. i heard him talking about if you

drill down the numbers this is not that bad of an employment report. >> if it was really great news, if the economy was really humming they would be raising interest rates which would be good news but bad news for the market. >> not for the stock market. >> that's the question. >> no. look, if we got a bad number truly bad number the market in my view stock market would be down a lot. a lot. because they are fearful that what's happening is undermining the economy, kill corporate earnings. we got a recession. >> or we don't know what's coming. >> i think if we had 300,000 upward division in the last three months a lot of the market would be fearful. people have gotten comfortable with the fed raising on a few times. damn if they do, damn if they don't. >> doug said it was a good report. i noticed that. >> once doug said it was a good report -- >> jeff what is your algorithm

say. you were right, remember in the fall. but then you had the rally that didn't happen. what could be happening now? >> the model is calling for a bottom, sometime next week. and a fairly sharp rally after that. >> sharp rally meaning up 5%? where are you at the end of the year. >> how about this. stocks are higher at the end of the year than they are right here. >> higher by a percent or two or higher by 10%. >> i think making target prices is a fool's errand. that's why i don't participate in barron's roundtable. if you get the correction correct you're ahead of most of the people. >> it matters. you're right. it's tough enough to get the direction much less than the actual amount. >> what is it exactly you think will move the market in a week

just so we understand. >> i think earnings are going to come in better than people expected. the last peg i had on that earnings by reporting companies were better by 62%. revenues were skinny at better by 54%. i think the economy is stronger than the superficial figure suggests. i was in your town last week. i couldn't get in several places. i think the economy except for north texas is pretty good. >> joe tells me this is not real america. >> no. but what i will say if you want andrew's e-mail to get in those restaurants just ask for it. that would not be a problem at all. i don't know why they haven't used your connections at this point. you're not promoting those new york values are you? we know about them. we know about them new york

values. who said that? >> that's cruz. >> ted cruz. that went over well. >> jeff, we appreciate you joining us this morning. >> you bet. >> we got to talk to you after next week to see whether the model works. >> we will. >> when we return jim cramer will join us with his take on the jobs number. first as we head to break check out the yield on the ten year. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back to "squawk box." more on that jobs report. first, some big stock movers this morning. first up, tableau software that stock down by 39%. some other players in the cloud software space are down on this news. splunk, qlik, workday and sales force all down sharply. >> i like that name, splunk. what did you say? >> splunking? >> i know. >> jim cramer joins us now. i know something to ask you. i don't think it can be done, but let's say executive order

effective immediately, ten $10 a barrel tax on oil and we'll put that into developing new solar stuff, that we could have by 2200 a.d. what would that do to the oil industry if we did that right now? >> well, you -- if you wanted to wipe out the fossil fuel industry, i know that is something that a lot of people want to do, either on a phase basis or in this case instantly, you can accomplish it these are the companies most troubled. this is the credit markets that martin franklin are moving to. if this happened, you could say it's the death nail of the american industry. maybe again, maybe that's what you want. the anti-fossil fuel crowd is powerful. i think you can phase these companies out but you can't do with what president obama did. it's out of sync with what we see every day in the news. >> i don't know. another in a long line of

just -- i don't think gauging effects on what private -- what the private sector would be. it's like a knee-jerk sort of idealistic notion that, you know, in some pie in the sky world it would make sense. in reality, it would be devastating, which scares me. >> coupled with -- if they reduced the strategic petroleum reserve, you could wipe it out. i was surprised -- i'm in favor of a tax on gasoline. this is where the wrong tax is. gasoline has come down so much, you could do something for infrastructure. the best way to do it is bring back corporate profits from overseas. >> hurts people who don't make money when they put a tax on gas. you have to figure out a way to do that. >> i know president lincoln was adamant about not doing it that way. lincoln had game. he realized that the poor people

get hurt by an across the board sales tax. if you want a palatable way, you can't take these companies and just shoot them all. >> the idea that you take -- this is a huge tax cut for the world. it's cheap energy. you know, to take it and say we're going to make it not cheap and we'll subsidize stuff that costs three, four times as much with that, it's just -- the mind that comes up with that, it fundamentally doesn't understand the private sector economy, it gives us a good idea why we're in the position we're in. thank you, jim. >> have great weekend. >> commentary, commentary. >> i'm for the -- i want to do the $10 a barrel. >> i do. >> no, no. >> i do, marc. it's a good jobs report, i want to do the $10 a barrel -- >> what about the gasoline tax? >> i don't want to do that. >> stop the presses. >> exactly. the countdown to the opening bell coming up, and in the next

hour washington reacting to the jobs report. jason fyson furman will join th "squawk on the street" gang. we're the hottest young company around but if we want to keep the soda pop flowing we need fresh ideas! >>got it. we slow, we die. >>what about cashing out? no! i'm trying to build something here. >>how about using fedex ground for shipping? >>i don't need some kid telling me how to run a business! i've been doing this for 4 long months. >>fedex ground can help us save money and deliver fast to our customers. not bad, kid. you remind me of a younger me.

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. got breaks newing from lower manhattan. these are some terrible pictures at 57 and worth street near church street. emergency services responding to a major crane collapse in the last half hour. reports of injuries we're sad to say no details this is about a block away from the odeon restaurant b five blocks south and a little bit to the east of where citi group's headquarters are downtown in tribeca. >> this happened before, unfortunately. >> when you walk around and see big cranes, don't you sort of look up and wonder -- >> yeah. >> this is about a block or two south from one of the major subway stations down there, too. >> i was headed right there? >> were you? >> for moody's. >> where? >> 7 world trade. >> 7 world trade. >> we'll monitor that. obviously more general news stations will have more on that. for us, i guess we've finally

decided, since doug holt can agree with mark, this might be an okay jobs market. they did cut 30,000 off last month. >> they did. i hate to sound like a broken record. some months a little higher, some months a little lower. it's almost as if they're drawing a line. it's amazingly rezisilient how many jobs are created. we are running out of slack, though. this job growth will slow down. >> the wage increases -- >> i want to see wage increases throughout the year. i want to see inflation expectations to pick up a bit from the rock bottom levels. i think it's reflecting a massive amount of pessimism in financial markets if we get a

bit of wage increase, and this flows through to sales growth, and then people get more comfortable with the outlook, we'll be in much better shape for risk assets. >> be sure you join us on monday. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber at the new york stock exchange. jim cramer is at one market in san francisco wrapping up his busy week. january jobs at 151,000, below estimates. wages do surprise to the upside. does this validate the fed's move to normalize rates? we'll get to that along with earnings from linkedin, estee lauder and more. oil is steady at the moment. our road map begins with the big