indicated strong disney draw and that's why the toys were so strong. >> see if it translates into disney shares. >> thanks for joining me. jon najarian and kayla tausche. does it for us today. with another down day in the market, well off the lows is all we can say. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlocking new york city's times square. i'm legal is a lee. tonight on "fast" the man who called the august swoon, jpmorgan's head of quantitative strategies is here with a bigger call about high-growth tech stocks and it's nod good and citigroup says we're in the midst of a, quote, death spiral, and nothing we can do about it. the man who pen that had report is here to tell us what has him worried. the commodities king dennis gartman says something has changed about the yellow metal

and that has him doing something he hasn't done in many, many years. first, we start off with a market. furious comeback for stocks late in the day. the dow following 401 points at its low only to reverse and close lower by 177. still, the s&p closed at its lowest level since tax day of 2014 rand a bounce like today has hey lot of investors wondering if the worst is over or if there's still more pain to come. glass half full or empty? >> i'm always a half empty guy. >> that's a bit rhetorical. >> january 20th, the s&p traded down to 1812. that was a tuesday right after martin luther king day and close that had day 1859. we've somewhat test it had today and did bounce. you saw what are happened back then after it tested the lows. we traded all the way back up to 1940. that's the good news. bad news is though you had no commensurate sell in the bond market. tlt was strong all day. you're seeing where yields are and the rally in gold. talk about weakness in the financials so you had a little something for the bulls, a

little more for the bears. i still think you have to test 1780 in the s&p. >> gold touched levels it hadn't seen since june. the tlt closed up by more than 2%. karen. which signals do you listen to at this point? >> always a glass half full kind of girl so i loved seeing the comeback. you know what. i always -- i get very fearful when things trade down in integers, but i'm more inclined to be a buyer, when others are fearful, i'm fearful, too, but i would be a buyer, so i would like to buy, didn't buy today but probably more bank of america, calls there probably, and some things did come back. you know, if i look at something like google t.managed to get all the way back, so i don't know, maybe the bottom is in for that. i'm not sure. >> we were -- pete and i were just talking about it. google rallied literally 20 bucks, 3% in the last 15 minutes of the day, 3 billion in market cap, lows of the day in the highs of the day in the last hour, nothing fundamental, it's

oversold. >> why is that not health? >> because we are in a market that is one step forward, two steps back so you ask if there's more to come. there's plenty more to come. we'll continue a notch higher when things are oversold and you'll have reflex actions and they will go back and make lower lows. guy just mentioned january 20. people, that's come. it may come fast or may come slow the next few days but what they got on the upside is not what they got as far as the positioning suggests on the downside. >> i'll tell you why it's unhealthy because it looks like short conversation. >> google moves. >> when you see these absolutely slaughtered and they make it that fast at the end of the day. talks about short clofrg into the closing bell. the last half hour, 45 minutes, whatever you want to call it, that's absolutely terrible. the market looks terrible and then we make a sudden push to the upside. dan and i go back. i look at way the vix is traded. last week touched the 50-day and bounced right off of this and up

here in the mid-50s. and until we can stay below the 50-day for at least a few sessions we're in for more of this. when you look at currencies and commodities, all the movement we're getting everywhere, oil every single day, oil somewhere between 29 and 34, the ovx trading -- traded over 70 again today. there is volatility in just about every aspect of the market. >> so the bottom line for you two guys here on this side is -- >> i'm a half full. >> he's three-quarters. >> is there more pain ahead despite the turnaround. >> it was absolutely meaningless. >> you didn't buy into it. >> i bought a stock into it. i bought mcdonald's. >> that's a stock that's -- >> it's done. >> isn't that part of a rotation out of winers? >> interesting they came out in march and buy 12,000 calls that are $3 calls and that's a huge commitment of capital and one saying they had a name that will be able to survive in a very

difficult environment. >> looks at texas instrument and lexan continues to sort of bounce from that. we've flagged 49.5 and 50 as levels and traded pretty impressively and closed down on the highs. day. not all bad. there are some names that are defining the tape and texas instruments traded really well. >> back to your trade and wanting to buy more bank of america. just curious. why would you want to step into such a troubled sectionor. the xlf at levels we've not seen for two years and the worries of european banks really plaguing what's going on here in the united states. >> the stock reflect all of that, i think. the stock is trading well below tangible book and trading at a cheap pe multiple. it's a bank and levered by its very nature but it's very u.s. centuries, and i think eventually that this storm will pass. if you do it through leaps, you've got a long time to wait, and -- and i -- i think we'll see improving earnings from there. >> does this feel a little 2011ish to you guys, i mean, in

terms on the u.s. side of the banks, we saw morgan stanley and citi really take it on the chin based on the fears of the european debt crisis, and i feel like it's almost the same -- the same banks getting painted. >> the probable is the debt crisis never ended in 2011. it's just been rolling here, and so what we're seeing is the de-leveraging that we are in '09 and 2010. it moved to europe and now it's also going on in asia, and it may never end, so, you for example the idea of buying the banks right here, you know, kind of putting your finger up in the air. i know you're doing it with defined risk and adding leverage to the existing long and we have analysts in '08 telling us how cheap the banks were in other regions that weren't at the heart of what was going on here. it's the same argument so it's a tough one to just say, yeah, i think that's trading .5 times book and i've got to get in there because we know this can go very wrong. >> until we see the european banks make a turn. >> including boich bank and i own puts in deutsche bank and the only reason i do, as dan knows, there was massive put-buying in there and morgan

stanley, massive put-buying. those names have been crushed and continue to be crushed. until we see an end to some of that i think i'll stay away from the banks. i own bank of america because i think i can price hanchlg there. >> let's talk tech here. the internet stock selloff may be just beginning. jpmorgan out with a report saying a bubble is beginning to burst. the firm's global head of derivative and quantitative strategies called the august swoon correctly and want to be listening to marco. great to have you back on the show. you're not saying it's a broad-based. it's pockets of tech. >> krefnlgt i wouldn't say it's a broad-based bubble in tech sectors. there's some sub industries that are cheap. internet retailing, software apps, app software, very high valuations in historical terms. almost you can't even compare them to the rest of the sector. certainly some of those groups of stocks benefited from

momentum investing, so the wave of high-quality, high-growth and low volatility momentum investing over the last few year, a lot of money went into these names so now there is a risk as the volatility of these stocks increases and these investors will actually start pulling money out of it, right, and then you may have a little bit of air pocket where -- where these valuations are correct and that can happen actually quite sharply and i think that's what we saw on friday. to some extent today as well and we think it may continue as well. >> what kind of correction are we talking about? sure there are investors who are saying we're already feeling the pain and feels like a correct has already happened in this area. >> they had a very good question. we're now down more than 20% on average on some of these names, so you could even say it's a bear market in that specific niche, you know. i wouldn't be surprised if -- if it gets to 30%, 35%. >> wow. >> cumulative, not more from here. >> right.

>> that means another 10%, 15% and that would be the surprise me at all and that would depend on macro economical data. does data point, to you know, slowdown or to actually recover? there is will depend on the fed. does the fed come in very hawkish and cools down the market or they -- or they are supportive of the markets. so -- so a lot of capital that will happen in the next four to six weeks i think will show whether this correction stops somewhere around totally cold 30%, 35% or develops into something much, much worse in which case this stock could lead on a downside whole market. >> you talked about a pairs trade, being short the broader market and s&p being along a basket of energy stocks and maybe a mean reversion thing. exxon mobil, 81 bucks. that's pand out. can you come back to us on that trade. >> absolutely. basically i suggested having a relative value view on momentum

versus value, you know, so s&p looked expensive. some of these tech names look expensive so what looked cheap? cheap sectors within s&p were, for instance, materials, energy sector, multi-nationals, so companies that have a high dollar exposure because our thesis was primarily multi-asset thesis. we were thinking that dollar will at some point need to weaken. fed will need to fall in line a little bit more with the rest of the world rather than diverge even more drastically from the rest of the world which will help the commodity sector so we -- i highlighted goals so goals work well both when you have a very sort of risk averse investor and may also do well when you have and reflattionary type of trade so gold, energy, emerging market as well relative to developing markets so these work with the various degrees of return, so i would say the gold

thesis is the best. >> you're sticking with the thesis calls. >> i'm sticking with, that that's correct. if you look at the emerging markets, some of the markets are even on the downside and still outperforming, between 1% and 5 misthey are outperforming and s&p, energy, some. names are fairly robust and the cool sector is 1.5% above s&p and it's still working. i do think that actually specifically the energy thesis may take a little longer to play out. i wrote in my report some of the estimates. trend-pulling cta accounts. still fairly short oil so you will need to see a little bit more substantial move up in oil for these shorts to start getting closed so we may think it will take longer and in some of these other sectors it's real playing out. >> i want to circle back to the internet. in your report you mentioned the fang stocks, and there's a right variety, when you say 35% total and another 10% from here.

certain names that you're thinking of over otherss? >> diversions between devaluations, i wouldn't want to go into individual names, one can actually compare them across various earnings, and i wouldn't paint it in broad stakes for sure, and the rationale there was these names are in absolute terms expensive, most of them, as well as actually these are some of the largest names in s&p so if you look at the fangs, at least three of them. part of the top ten s&p so we're looking at the high-growth stocks which are high momentum stocks. they have very high valuations, but they are not your small, you know, startups. you know, they are the largest companies in the s&p and largest holding of long-term investors so basically if you compare the value of the three largest fangs, things are twice as larger as the total s&p so it's

in historical terms prelt, pretty high. so also if you look at for long-term investors, if you back test some of these trades where you are long value and smaller names and short some of these mega cap expensive names, tend to work 70%, 80% of the time so from the long-term investor perspective it does not make sense to have so much weight concentrated in let's say fangs. >> thanks for coming back. how do we trade tech stocks, do you agree? >> the the tech stocks are tough and a lot of what drives me is a lot of unusual activity but the materials question, the eem question, weave seen just last week on wednesday we saw the eem, the march upside calls. we say 150,000 at one single strike being bought. dan asked me about alcoa last week because i bought some calls in aa. on material stock. i don't like this sector all that much, but it seems like as momentum had moved to the downside maybe there's a little bit of upside but i don't see anything yet in some of these

different tech names that are telling me to get long. >> so to his point about these large-cap names, three stocks that make up the entire index of 90 others, i mean, this is the whole problem with the bull market, problem with the bull market last year and why the market in season couldn't real and stocks like amazon up 100% and the same reason why you're seeing the rotation in unloved stuff. alcoa down 70% this year and amazon down 30% so i think this will continue and i think he mentioned some of the subsectors in tech. every bubble has blown up, solar, 3-d, down 60%, 70% and i pecks some of the stocks you like this google and facebook that they will overshoot. you'll have countertrend rallies but they will tend to overshoot. >> dennis gartman has been doing something he hasn't done in years. what that is and tempted to buy today's bounce?

there's something in the chart that might make you think twice. we'll explain and later citigroup sounding the alarm on the global economy naming four reasons for why the world is trapped in a so-called death spiral. the happy man behind that call when "fast money" returns. ♪ aflac. ohh ah ah aflac! aaaaf-lac!

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the xbi falling more than 5.5% after a brutal start to the year. all the banks in the space seeing massive losses on the day. guys, i have a feeling you'll bring up selgene. >> like i'm some predictable nelly. >> yes. >> what's funny about that, pete and i were looking, look at celgene. >> the rhetoric and the headlines, okay, in my opinion will continue to be negative for the space. you'll hear continued rhetoric out of the politicians. that is not a good thing. in terms of the etf, the other etf, the ibb we talk about all the time. it's got to get above 2385. not even closer to that. to your point celgene, nice reversal. unbelievable balance sheet. i don't think they have the growth problems, some of the other issues a lot of biotechs

have, but the entire space is under an unfortunate microscope. >> karen? >> i don't see any near-term end in sight to the rell rick anded it will get worse. if you had to do something i'd probably short the index and be short a celgene and long guileade. >> are you? >> i'm not. if i had to do something, there's a couple of names in there that are babies with the bath water. >> right. >> but i would be short the bath water and try to pick up -- >> up the baby. >> one of the greats in that whole world was on today and was describing this thing and to your point he said the rhetoric is probably going to go on throughout the entire cycle of the political world, right? it's going to get through and eventually he has buys. he had's got significant upside price targets, but does he think it's going to happen in the next six, seven months? probably not so it will maybe come after that. you look at amgen and celgene and even guileade, it's interesting because they made a

very conscious defigures on that earnings call and they talked about how they would be doing purchase, huge repurchase and everyone said acquisition, acquisition. are they prepared? i think they want to wait now potentially for an acquisition. >> can't buy anything as good as themselves for that price. >> buying themselves back in a single sglijt still ahead, the man who said the s&p was heading to 1850. by the way, exactly where it closed today. well, he's back and he says there's something even more disturbing about the charts today. what it is. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money," on cbs first in business world wide snows it's gold, it's gold, it's sol ed gold, baby ♪ >> where againies in gartman says you need ton and how high he sees it going and here's what citigroup thinks of the world. and the citi strategist who said we're in a death spiral will tell us just how low he sees

stocks going. that's when "fast money" returns.

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its biggest daily gain since december 2014. dom chu is back at headquarters with more on the precious metal's big move. hey, dom. >> hey, melissa. been precious in terms of a trade for a number of traders this year, but it hasn't been really all that precious over the past few years, melissa, and here's the reason why. if you look at gold futures up around that 12% mark just year to date until 2016 it has a lot of traders and investors wondering if this uptrend can continue. now, earlier today those gold futures took a peek above that 1,200 an ounce level. the first time that's happened since june of last year. some analysts think that given the amount of market, geopolitical and other types of wore/out there there will be at least a short-term bid to gold coming up. you add to that some. seasonal factors like physical gold demand tied to the chinese new year celebration going on right now. there might be a reason to think prices can stay stable around the 1,200 area. that's the boldish case. if you look at some of the traders, they are not as convinced for this particular move, they are going to point to

the strong starts over the last couple of years for gold prices only to see those prices fall later on in the year, so between variables like the chinese economic growth situation, central bank policy, safe haven demand and european banks, et cetera, et cetera, no shortage of both bushel and bearish narratives. of course, i can't hit all of them. that's just part of the story. go to cnbc.com/pro for a more in-depth look at what's happening with gold. overall a very interesting move. one of the real winners in trading. who would have thought if you said that last year 2016 would be the year of gold, at least for the first couple of months, melissa. back over to you. >> thanks very much, dom chu. is the rally for real? let's bring in the commodities king dennis gartman from "the gartman left." dom brings up a good point saying gold has head faked us in the past and why do you think this is more than just a bounce? >> it's been a terrifyingly bad bear market since november of 2011, so you had a five-year

bear market ostensibly. rallies have indeed been something you sold into. weakness was not something you wanted to buy, but for the first time in a long period of time gold in dollar terms and in yen terms and in euro terms and in sterling terms and gold in russian ruble terms all have turned for the better. i think that is demonstrative move to the upside, and i think the public has not at all involved -- hasn't even begun to become involved and if anything the public is on the short side. commercials find themselves with their smallest net short position we've seen in almost 15 years. i think this is indeed different and i think the central banks have made it abundantly clear that they have not been able to sponsor inflation and they intend to do that. mr. draghi will use all the weaponry available to hi. i think that this is different this time so i've been very burlish of gold in the yen in euro terms and for the first time i've bullish in golden dollars and saying to pay attention to and heed, to yes.

>> i was going to ask you. do you think the bank of japan going to negative interest rates had anything to do with it and do the gold miners specifically, do they make more sense? i'm in the asking you to you name names but just in terms of the space. >> the second thing first, guy. the mineers have been under an even worse bear market than has gold itself. that's a normal -- that's a typical circumstance in a bear market. what we've seen in the past two months, however, is that the gold miners have begun to outperform gld and gold miners have begun to outperform gold and that's how bull markets respond and for the public taking a look at owning the miners make sense. whatever you do avoid the junior and stay away from them. it's a -- it's a place that i would not allow anybody to go to. look at the big ones and look at the barricks and the rest. those are places to be involved if you want to be involved on the miner side. as far as -- what was the first question? >> bank of japan, negative interest rates. >> absolutely. no question that's involved in what's going on in -- in the strength in gold in the past

week and a half. i think that is indicative of the fact that they, along with the ec brks along with the -- the federal reserve bank and bank of canada, along with all the federal monetary authorities are doing what they can to sponsor inflation. they haven't been able to do it thus far and tend to throw all the weaponry that they have and the bank of japan's decision to go to negative rates is one of the other precursors and sponsors of what's began on in the past week and a half. don't buy it here though. you'll get a correction. >> dennis gartman of the gartman letter. bottom line, dennis likes gold in whatever term. >> the last little bit that he said. don't buy it here. you're going to get a correction. gold is in a massive downtrend and i think that's been the beneficiary of nowhere to hide when you look at what's began on in equities. yeah, a rotation in some other stuff, miners and stuff like that. i don't think you buy it here. i think the gig is up. people realize there's never going to be any inflation and i don't know why you buy it and you have a great countertrend

reality and if you look at the glt at 114 and going to say 128 or 100, i get goes back to 128. >> don't buy gold and definitely don't buy the miners? >> i have the gdx. >> oh. >> bought them in december and started again last week. huge paper in the gdx. you and i are looking at the options all the times. sld, bolt have made pretty significant moves recently. okay to take a little bit off but last thursday they bought another -- a few strikes higher. june 22s in the gdx, 40,000 in single print. i think they think that overtime we'll continue to watch gold start to move to the upside. >> looking at the same thing and come up with completely different conclusions. >> and i arm wrestle and beat him all the time, too. >> i don't buy that. >> maybe he does. >> i like the jig is up. >> that's like an elizabethan term. >> coming up, the ripple effects over the collapse of crude has one top-ranked strategist from

citigroup coming for oilmageddon and the man behind that and why he thinks a full-on global concession could be right around the corner and conor braxton is back. you may recall in january he called for 1800 on the s&p 500. find out where he sees stocks going next when "fast money" returns.

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tomorrow, big week for media. earnings, shake-ups, power struggles as

welcome back to "fast money." stocks staging a comeback in the last hour of trading slashing losses in half after being down 400 points at the lows. s&p and nasdaq falling more than 1%. energy was the only energy sector managing to end the day in green while materials were today's biggest lag yards. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." all fear oil packedion says citigroup as one says things are in a free fall. his words.

details later on. first, early this year our next guest said this is about where the s&p 500 was going. take a listen. >> 16.1 multiple right or at or near would put exeactly on this line which would be our average was 1950, and it would put you exactly still within this ascending channel that the market has been going but what if it's not average, the presumption is a minimum 1800 and i think lower from there. >> so we're rapidly approaching 1800 on the s&p 500. train day we hit 1827 so how much lower could we go from here? cornerstone macro's carter worth is back at the smart board. what do you say? >> the thinking here is lower but it's important stepping back and talk about levels and after a 6 1/2-year perpetual motion machine, up, up, up, is it all because of a drawdown?

no, not likely. that would argue for more to come. here we have the perpetual motion machine and the big rolling and topping that's been in effect. we're no longer in an uptrend, and what we know is our low what is 1820. we violate that had low last monday, and now we have a well-defined series of lows from which in principle a bad break is often the conclusion, so a top, well defined neckline. can you draw it head and shoulders and do whatever you want, but the path is lower by my work, and i think many would agree. here is the entire bull market since ronald reagan took office, and what we know is that we came to the bottom of this line and bounces off an 80 recession. 1987 crash, and it it again and the lows for the recession and made off right there and just to stay still in the upper quadrant and to get to the bottom of it would be 15775. now that 1575 level happens also to be exactly a pullback to the

level from which we broke out, and one of the most well-defined formations is after a breakout you often fall back to the level that the sort of good eating took play, so, again, we're thinking -- we're thinking much lower, 1575. it's a bad tape. there's something wrong. >> now, take a look at these stats. let's say -- forget everything i just did and put it in line with history. there have been 30 declines of 20% or more going back to 1921 and the immediateun, however you want to do the math, 31, let's call it 32 and if we're to do that and in line since the 1921 median mean and do a 32% decline. the high was 2134 in may of 2015 that would give us 1450 and that's much worse than i'm drawing here. that's 1575. that would be a peak-to-trough

drawdown of 26% or if we're in line with the median mean 32. why go higher? >> wow. 14 '50 to the downside. carter, thanks. >> thanks. >> like your bear brother, dan. >> brother from another technical mother. here's the deal, right. we had marco on before, and, you know, what are we talking about? we were talking about the largest components of the index that had been doing so much of the heavy lifting and here's the thing, people. seen this before. we know how it ends. it ended in 2000 and when you lost that leadership after you lost all the other subsectors it was a foregone conclusion, the path of least resistance was lower. it's been that way for more than a year now and i think carter will be right. there's going to be pockets and rotations. guy just talked about it. look an intergrated oil stocks and held in here. there's some other stuff but i don't think you want to be long this stuff that kept market up for so long. >> i know you're a value person and try and look past and have a longer term horizon, but when somebody comes up here and says 1450 from where we are now at

1850 does it make you think twice about how you value value right now? >> no. >> okay. >> not to be dismissive of carter's work. >> sure. >> that's not the way we invest. i really foucs on a couple of the metrics we think are born. cash flow is one of them, invested cam at all, ebitda, words that mean nothing to him. one of the charts looked like the loch ness monster to me, i don't know, one of those. a lot of ways to skin a cat. that is the way i'm most comfortable. >> are you most concerned about ebitda? >> i'm always nervous. but you're valuing it based on current expectations whanz we know is wall street consensus, they move like sheep. >> right. >> like lemings off a cliff so if we're going to see it or in the midst of a global slowdown all. estimates that you're valuing on 2016 earnings or ebitda are going to be too high and the stocks you own will be expenseive. >> since i've been in the business the overall trend has been up, okay, so clearly downturns in the middle. i can't think that i'm going to

be smart enough to be in front of the market moves up or down and pay taxes. i've got to get out and know when to get in and got to make up the tax differential as well. to me that doesn't make sense. i buy companies i own with balance sheets that i feel comfortable with, and i think over time i'm going to make money. >> guy? >> deutsche bank, he talked about deutsche bank i think at the top of the show. >> yes. >> saying how he's bought puts in deutsche bank. deutsche bank is not an insignificant financial institution. over the summer, raoul pal says it's going straight down. now i'm not suggest that's the barometer of the global economy, but clearly something is going on with european banks, so can i be dismissive of carter's work? could the market bounce from here? absolutely. what i will say about the levels that he flagged, the double tops, for those that care, the march '01 low, the recent may high of 2134, the levels carter flagged is a 38.2% to the penny

retracement level so just to throw that in your quiver of arrows as well. >> yeah. still ahead, is oil's -- >> a little quiver. >> is oil's plunge. >> i'm moving on. >> -- sending the markets economy in a death spiral? citigroup thinks that, that a death spiral is on its way. the head of global equities tells how bad things could get right after this break.

welcome back to "fast money." oil closed below 30 bucks a barrel today, than could just be the start of oilmageddon, at least according to citigroup which put out a note last week claiming the world was trapped in a quote unquote death spiral. jonathan stubbs, the man behind the call is a global and european equity strategy at citi and joins us tonight from lon n london. thanks so much for joining us. i'm wondering how do you see a death spiral in the economy playing how the? >> well, i mean, the death spiral really describes what we have been seeing and the challenge for investors is to see whether that continues and the spiral has been, you know, very, very powerful. we've had super strong u.s. dollar over the last 18 months,

quantum and sort of velocity of a christian has been of historic importance, obviously the oil price has come down 70 bucks and the correlation between oil and dollar has been very strong. both of those have fed into a much weaker sort of global trade environment, and it's the size of the moves that have been very disru disruptive. also fed into much weaker liquidity and petro dollar liquidity coming up significant pressure and that in turn has fed into sort of major concerns in asset classes clyke u.s. high yield and also across a variety of em economies and emg volatility as well and this death spiral is something we've been oaks, and if we see another year of this repeating, super strong dollar and super weak commodities, et cetera, they be the prospects for the global economy and the prospects for corporate profits and for share price dozen not look good. the question is if and we can

come on to that in a second. >> when you see sort of surprises like the bank of japan's move to negative interest rates and see things like the quick deterioration in deutsche bank, equity as well as the bonds, how -- how does that feed into that death spiral, if it does at all, and does this make you believe that 2016, we are destined for some sort of global recession? >> well, we're clearly under a lot of pressure from a growth perspective. you know, we've seen sort of technical bear markets if various sectors in the u.s. and europe and various country markets in europe over the last couple of months even so we've had sharp losses from equity markets, and that's really got one is oilmageddon and we've had a quick loss of confidence in central banks and their opportunity do what they have been doing since the financial crisis which is maintaining this non-recessionary world, so every -- every investor we meet

right now, you know, question number one is are we heading for global recession, and there are different types of recision. our chief economist back in september wrote a piece and went through how he expected to see a growth recession which for him was not a dm recession, it was em weakness taking global gdp growth down to 2% or below. equity markets are already pricing that in today with the moves that we've seen, so, you know, to really be fundamentally bearish on equities at this point in time you have to go much further than that. you have to believe there's a significant and synchronized global recession ahead, and for that to happen you need the death spiral to continue. we actually think this year, as we go into the second half of the year, more stable u.s. dollar and still strong and not as strong and still the prospect of more rational behavior in more oil markets taking things higher by this year. >> you're saying that the death spiral is probably going to come to an end and that's a good -- the note was very scary when you say oilmageddon and death spiral

and global recession that's frightening but you're saying it seals like it's the end in 2016 because the you're forecasting the stabilization. currency as well as oil. >> this is the key to it all. if -- if the feedback loop is broken by stability in one or two of the components, we can take pressure off and then at end of this, you know, given sort of the sentiment that you imply from the notes, we're actually overweight oil and overweight oil and underweight industrials because we think that offers investors a very good way of hedging very important risks, hedges with industrials on the short side and hedges against the china hard landing and against an environment where we get to a two-way risk in oil prices and that's where we think we're heading. >> jonathan, thanks so much for joining us. appreciate it. jonathan stubbs of citi >> you know what's interesting and there are pupil out there who will say, you know what, guys. you have been trotting out the bears tonight. we've had bears from -- these are not just outlier people,

outlier firms. these are mainstream large banks. we had the head of derivatives of jpmorgan. we had this guy from citigroup and carton braxton worth come out say 1450. what do you say? i mean, does this concern you that now it seems like it's not an outlier view that there could be a global recession? it's not an outlier view that we're going so see more downside on the s&p 500. >> i think it's why the desk overall has some concerns out there, more so than norm a. i know dan tends to be more bearish and we talk about being half full and three-quarters in your part, but a few weeks ago, melissa, you had us do this exercise talking about how do the big oil companies look and which one do you think will have the biggest issue and i ended up conoco phillips and the reason was the negative cash flows. sure enough, here they are. >> yeah. >> i think there's a lot of reasons when we look at debt, when you look at cash flows, we have some concerns out there, and there are some companies that they have got to restructure and it's going to be

a very long process for many of them. >> actually the terrible headline at the beginning that have interview turned out to be somewhat positive so not as bad. we get accused of a lot of fearmongering. not just about fear, trying to tell the truth and explain what we're seeing. in a lot of ways it's been acura. the other side to me is being glib and everything is okay and i don't think that's anything that's good. what's encouraging is the fact that a lot of major integrated oil companies reversed and went higher. that's a pretty good sign. we mentioned that at the top of the show. >> does that mick you tempted to look at an exxon mobile or a chevron or bp. >> it does, i think if sentiment is changed that would be great for them so that there is eebl some with a little more turn charge than those. >> yeah. >> are you really three-quarters empty? >> no. i think mel's point is a really good one. poipgt out this stuff for a long time and the price action wasn't coming our way and now there's global strategists making this

sort of stuff so the sentiment can turn other way and let's be honest. a lot of these guys were defensive the whole way down back in '08 and '09 and can't really afford for the job security to do that again. that's just a fact. >>

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